SportsRatings: College Football

Baylor's yardage stats are insane; so is Florida's rushing defense

Yes, more about Baylor. Now that we've run the yardage stats for the first time this year, we see just how crazy Baylor's offense has been: against the average FBS team they are putting up over 850 yards of total offense.

The usual caveats apply here, even moreso for yardage this early in the season. For most teams 20% of their total is against FCS teams and is meaningless. That leaves maybe 4 games against FBS teams and the numbers swings are pretty wild. Baylor has played only 4 games, 3 against FBS teams.

Still, you can't ignore what they've been doing. After adjusting for opposition they lead the nation in both rushing and passing yardage, and are #1 in total offense by a huge margin.

Total offense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Baylor                       4-0   853.2[  1]  373.0[  1]  480.2[  1]
  3   2. Texas A&M                    4-1   604.6[  2]  259.8[ 12]  344.8[ 11]
  2   3. Oregon                       5-0   604.6[  3]  314.6[  4]  289.9[ 33]
 22   4. Arizona St                   3-2   592.9[  4]  177.6[ 59]  415.2[  2]
 11   5. Georgia                      4-1   576.9[  5]  235.9[ 21]  340.9[ 12]

The gap between Baylor and the #2 teams is about 250 yards per game. Texas A&M and Oregon are neck-and-neck for #2 (in raw yardage Oregon leads A&M by about 35 yards per game but the Aggies of course played Alabama).

Baylor's passing numbers are crazy; they average almost 500 yards against an "average" defense:

Passing Offense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Baylor                       4-0   853.2[  1]  373.0[  1]  480.2[  1]
  9   2. Arizona St                   3-2   592.9[  4]  177.6[ 59]  415.2[  2]
  2   3. Oregon St                    4-1   455.5[ 43]   58.0[126]  397.5[  3]
  8   4. Washington St                4-2   458.6[ 42]   71.2[124]  387.4[  4]
 10   5. Indiana                      3-2   574.5[  6]  205.2[ 39]  369.3[  5]

In rushing Baylor actually is #2 in raw yardage to New Mexico. But Baylor has faced tougher rushing defenses than the Lobos, so they beat them by nearly 40 yards when adjusted. Note that other than Baylor, no top 5 passing team is even in the top 35 in rushing.

Rushing Offense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  2   1. Baylor                       4-0   853.2[  1]  373.0[  1]  480.2[  1]
  1   2. New Mexico                   2-3   388.2[ 83]  332.2[  2]   56.0[126]
  4   3. Army                         2-4   382.7[ 86]  326.5[  3]   56.1[125]
  3   4. Oregon                       5-0   604.6[  3]  314.6[  4]  289.9[ 33]
  7   5. Georgia Tech                 3-2   418.8[ 62]  308.0[  5]  110.8[122]

Again, note the number of one-dimensional offenses at the top: New Mexico, Army, and Georgia Tech are all in the bottom few in passing yardage. Even Oregon is only #33.

So the Bears are remarkably not only for the sheer volume of offense but also their balance: they're great at both running and passing the ball. So what teams have a defense that could slow them down?

Total Defense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  2   1. Florida                      4-1   170.6[  1]    4.5[  1]  166.0[  8]
  7   2. Florida St                   5-0   240.2[  2]   87.2[  8]  152.9[  4]
  5   3. Virginia Tech                5-1   243.7[  3]   85.8[  6]  157.8[  5]
  1   4. Michigan St                  4-1   252.8[  4]   69.4[  2]  183.4[ 21]
 14   5. Southern Cal                 3-2   255.8[  5]  127.6[ 34]  128.1[  1]
 10   6. Washington                   4-1   269.6[  6]  106.6[ 18]  163.0[  7]
 16   7. Memphis                      1-3   271.1[  7]   73.7[  3]  197.3[ 31]
 12   8. Alabama                      5-0   275.1[  8]   97.1[ 13]  177.9[ 17]
  3   9. Louisville                   5-0   276.2[  9]   96.8[ 12]  179.3[ 18]
  6  10. Wisconsin                    3-2   278.2[ 10]  109.1[ 20]  169.0[ 11]

Presumably that defense would need to be very strong against both the run and the pass. The top three teams here seem to fit that description, with Florida, Florida State, and Virginia Tech in the top ten against both.

The passing defense rankings are pretty interesting:

Passing Defense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
 33   1. Southern Cal                 3-2   255.8[  5]  127.6[ 34]  128.1[  1]
 61   2. West Virginia                3-3   325.2[ 20]  189.6[ 96]  135.5[  2]
 19   3. Arizona                      3-1   300.9[ 16]  159.3[ 67]  141.6[  3]
  5   4. Florida St                   5-0   240.2[  2]   87.2[  8]  152.9[  4]
  9   5. Virginia Tech                5-1   243.7[  3]   85.8[  6]  157.8[  5]

According to this chart, Baylor has already faced the #2 passing defense in the country and racked up 396 yards against them. That's much lower than their adjusted 480 yard average, however, one reason the Mountaineers rank so high. Note that they are just #61 in raw numbers—an average pass defense. But they held Oklahoma (245 adjusted average) to 119 yards, for example, so the average team would expect to only get 135 yards against them. The same logic shows how USC ends up at #1 (they held #4 passing team Washington State to just 215, for example). And, of course, it's still pretty early in the season and these numbers will change—Florida State and Virginia Tech are probably more reliably ranked right now.

Rushing Defense (adjusted for opposition) through October 5, 2013

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  2   1. Florida                      4-1   170.6[  1]    4.5[  1]  166.0[  8]
  1   2. Michigan St                  4-1   252.8[  4]   69.4[  2]  183.4[ 21]
 16   3. Memphis                      1-3   271.1[  7]   73.7[  3]  197.3[ 31]
  5   4. East Carolina                4-1   362.6[ 47]   76.8[  4]  285.8[110]
  3   5. Rutgers                      4-1   423.1[ 84]   84.5[  5]  338.5[126]

And then there's Florida, who has the best scoring and yardage defense; the latter is mostly due to their insane rushing defense, which according to the numbers so far would hold the average team to under 5 yards per game. Here's a look at what they've given up so far, and what their opponents average in raw figures:

Opponent      Ave        vs. FLA       diff
Toledo        208.8        50        -158.8
Miami FL      213.8        50        -163.8
Tennessee     211.0        66        -145.0
Kentucky      162.2        48        -114.2
Arkansas      216.0       111        -105.0

When you consider that those teams' averages are brought way down by their game with Florida, it's not hard to see that the Gators are holding teams to a ridiculous amount below their former average, maybe by 170 yards or so. With the average FBS gaining maybe 175 yards per game, they're expected to net just 5 yards against the Gators. Now, that's a bit silly; it would imply that probably 50 teams should have negative yardage vs. Florida. But after just 5 games these things show up in the stats. The rest of the top five in rushing defense have realistic numbers and Florida will join them, but don't be surprised if their adjusted average stays below 50 yards per game.

What would happen if Baylor met Florida? It would be great to see, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if it ended up happening in the Fiesta or Cotton Bowl.

Yardage Statistics: Offense, Defense, Rushing, Passing for 2012

Finally got around to updating the yardage statistics for 2012, through the first six weeks of the season. Here are the interesting points:

• Total Yardage Differential: Oklahoma, Florida, and Oregon are the best states in terms of "winning" by yardage

Rank  Team                        Rec   Yds±   Off  Def
  1. Texas Tech                   4-1   312.3    8    2
  2. Oklahoma St                  2-2   285.0    2   40
  3. Florida St                   5-1   251.1   17    4
  4. Alabama                      5-0   210.4   73    1
  5. LSU                          5-1   186.8   34    6
  6. Oregon                       6-0   178.8   12   30
  7. Fresno St                    4-2   177.4   15   15
  8. Oregon St                    4-0   169.1   31   11
  9. Oklahoma                     3-1   164.2   32   12
 10. Florida                      5-0   161.0   76    3

Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, Florida State and Florida, Oregon and Oregon State all make the top ten in yardage differential. Texas Tech is on top despite their loss to Oklahoma, and is the only team in the top ten in both offense and defense (all adjusted for opposition).

Many of the top teams have played an easy schedule. Texas Tech certainly did before the Oklahoma game, while Oklahoma State beat Savannah State 84-0. FSU played two FCS teams including Savannah State (though their yardage stats their understate their dominance as only about 30 minutes of football was played). Right now these FCS games might "juice" even the adjusted figures a bit due to the high numbers involved, but over time the FCS games will lose their "pull" almost completely.

• Baylor is #1 on offense, #124 on defense

Rank Team                         Rec    Yds±  Off  Def
 38. Baylor                       3-1    66.9    1  124

After the Bears' 70-63 loss to West Virginia, it's not too hard to believe, but they've just played four games so things could change.

• Total Offense: Oklahoma State has the most balanced offense of the top teams:

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  2   1. Baylor                       3-1   659.1[  1]  219.5[ 21]  439.6[  1]
  1   2. Oklahoma St                  2-2   639.2[  2]  294.3[  4]  344.8[  6]
  6   3. Arizona                      3-3   594.3[  3]  220.2[ 20]  374.0[  3]
  4   4. Nevada                       5-1   553.8[  4]  258.0[  8]  295.8[ 25]
 12   5. Texas A&M                    4-1   547.3[  5]  252.8[  9]  294.5[ 27]
  3   6. West Virginia                5-0   545.4[  6]  171.9[ 58]  373.4[  4]
 10   7. Clemson                      5-1   531.6[  7]  197.4[ 35]  334.2[  9]
 15   8. Texas Tech                   4-1   531.4[  8]  155.0[ 72]  376.4[  2]
  8   9. UCLA                         4-2   528.8[  9]  208.9[ 29]  319.8[ 14]
 19  10. Troy                         3-2   527.5[ 10]  191.4[ 39]  336.1[  8]

Oklahoma State is the only team with a top ten rushing and passing offense. Again, however, after just four games—including Savannah State—the Cowboys' numbers may be a bit misleading. Texas A&M and Texas Tech make the top ten after adjusting for opposition, as does Troy. Marshall and Houston are in the "raw" top ten but drop out when adjusting for schedule—as does Oregon, surprisingly.

• Army is still the #1 rushing team despite their 1-4 start

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Army                         1-4   438.9[ 39]  400.6[  1]   38.2[124]
  2   2. Air Force                    2-3   477.7[ 21]  362.8[  2]  114.8[121]
  4   3. Oregon                       6-0   515.3[ 12]  307.7[  3]  207.6[ 90]
  5   4. Oklahoma St                  2-2   639.2[  2]  294.3[  4]  344.8[  6]
  6   5. Nebraska                     4-2   500.1[ 14]  277.9[  5]  222.1[ 73]
  8   6. New Mexico                   3-3   354.3[ 97]  271.9[  6]   82.4[123]
  3   7. Georgia Tech                 2-4   385.1[ 79]  265.7[  7]  119.3[120]
  7   8. Nevada                       5-1   553.8[  4]  258.0[  8]  295.8[ 25]
 20   9. Texas A&M                    4-1   547.3[  5]  252.8[  9]  294.5[ 27]
 10  10. Ohio State                   6-0   443.6[ 36]  248.5[ 10]  195.0[ 97]

Army was the #1 rushing team (adjusted yards per game) last year and so far this year isn't a disappointment, despite the team's awful start. As expected, they're last in passing, putting them #39 in total adjusted offense. Triple-option teams Air Force (#2) and Georgia Tech (#7) make the list, as does New Mexico who rarely passes; all of these teams are among the 5 least productive passing teams.

Oregon, Nebraska, and Ohio State are also living by the run. Other than Oklahoma State, only Nevada and Texas A&M have truly strong passing games to go with their solid running attack.

• Passing: Teams who lost high-profile quarterbacks—Baylor, Oklahoma State, Houston—still putting up big numbers, as we predicted, and most teams are in line with expectations.

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Baylor                       3-1   659.1[  1]  219.5[ 21]  439.6[  1]
  7   2. Texas Tech                   4-1   531.4[  8]  155.0[ 72]  376.4[  2]
  4   3. Arizona                      3-3   594.3[  3]  220.2[ 20]  374.0[  3]
  2   4. West Virginia                5-0   545.4[  6]  171.9[ 58]  373.4[  4]
  3   5. Marshall                     2-4   522.2[ 11]  161.8[ 64]  360.3[  5]
  5   6. Oklahoma St                  2-2   639.2[  2]  294.3[  4]  344.8[  6]
 15   7. Washington St                2-4   402.8[ 62]   63.0[122]  339.8[  7]
 12   8. Troy                         3-2   527.5[ 10]  191.4[ 39]  336.1[  8]
 11   9. Clemson                      5-1   531.6[  7]  197.4[ 35]  334.2[  9]
  6  10. Houston                      2-3   481.9[ 18]  149.1[ 79]  332.8[ 10]

Houston, Baylor, and Oklahoma State were the #1, #3, and #4 passing teams last season, but all suffered big losses at quarterback and receiver. Still, their systems are potent and we predicted they would finish #11, #9, and #31 in passing this year. So far they've surpassed that, with Houston in the top ten, Baylor at #1, and Oklahoma State at #6. The teams we picked as the top three—Texas Tech, Washington State, and West Virginia—are also doing well at #2, #7, and #4. We had Clemson #6 and they're close, at #9; we projected Troy improving from #26 to #10 and they're at #8. A few teams have really exceeded our picks, however. We had Marshall—last year's #72—jumping to #43 and they've outdone that by sitting in the top 5 so far. But we thought Rich Rodriguez new offense would greatly dilute Arizona's #2 passing offense while favoring the run, but that hasn't happened. The Wildcats rank #4 in passing while improving to #20 on the ground.

• Defense: Alabama is #1 again, nearly in all categories

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1   1. Alabama                      5-0   180.2[  1]   37.8[  1]  142.3[  2]
  2   2. Texas Tech                   4-1   219.1[  2]   75.2[  6]  143.9[  3]
 13   3. Florida                      5-0   226.6[  3]   67.4[  2]  159.2[  7]
  4   4. Florida St                   5-1   238.6[  4]   90.8[ 10]  147.8[  4]
  5   5. Brigham Young                4-2   247.6[  5]   92.6[ 12]  154.9[  6]
  3   6. LSU                          5-1   259.1[  6]   95.6[ 14]  163.4[  9]
  7   7. Maryland                     3-2   269.6[  7]   88.2[  9]  181.3[ 18]
  9   8. Michigan St                  4-2   271.5[  8]   73.4[  4]  198.1[ 29]
 12   9. South Carolina               6-0   275.6[  9]  104.6[ 19]  170.9[ 11]
  6  10. Connecticut                  3-3   281.1[ 10]  106.3[ 21]  174.8[ 14]

Last year the Tide dominated all the defensive categories, and again Alabama is #1 in total yardage and rushing defense, and they're #2 in pass defense to Oklahoma. The top four teams all rank in the top ten in rushing and passing defense, and in general the entire top ten lacks a weak area. Texas Tech's defense seems to be for real, despite schedule-strength doubts when it ranked #1 last week.

Stanford or Kent State: Who has a better rushing defense?

This might not be the question that's on everyone's mind as the college football season heads into the home stretch, but it's an interesting one to consider from a statistics viewpoint.

Most people wouldn't know offhand but would guess that Stanford—who is 7-1, ranked #13 in the BCS, and just blew out Washington 41-0—is probably better at rushing defense than MAC member Kent State, who stands at 4-4.

Look at the NCAA's stats, however, and you may be surprised. Not because Stanford is only #40, but because Kent State has only given up a paltry 65.9 yards per game, good enough to rank as the #1 team in college football in that area.

So it's settled: #40 Stanford vs. #1 Kent State, the Golden Flashes win, right? Not so fast. When we look at who they've played, and the rushing offenses of those teams, the picture changes again.

Stanford's I-A opponents, and their raw rushing offense rankings, have been:

• UCLA (#26, 193 ypg)
• Wake Forest (#33, 180)
• Notre Dame (#99, 113)
• Oregon (#3, 309)
• USC (#21, 201)
• Washington State (#117, 73)
• Washington (#73, 144)

Stanford's opponents average 173 yards per game on the ground, which would rank at #40 in the nation. The Cardinal are giving up an average (not counting I-AA Sacramento State) of 144 yards per game which isn't fantastic, but against above-average competition their rushing defense is re-evaluated upwards to some extent. And this is just one iteration; the above teams' rushing offenses can be compared to their opponents' defenses in the same way, and the process continued until the values settle and the dust clears. At that point, Stanford's rushing defense ranks #22 in the nation rather than #40.

Kent State, on the other hand, faces a comparatively weaker schedule:

• Boston College (#100, 111 ypg)
• Penn State (#84, 136)
• Miami Ohio (#119, 63)
• Akron (#106, 105)
• Toledo (#71, 146)
• Bowling Green (#120, 62)
• Ball State (#47, 160)

Immediately you can see why Kent State is #1 in raw rushing defense. Their opponents include the bottom two team in the country (Bowling Green and Miami of Ohio) in rushing offense. Even the BCS conference teams they played—Boston College and Penn State—are far below average in this stat. The top rushing offense the Golden Flashes have faced is 2-7 Ball State's. Combined, these teams average just 112 yards per game, which would rank an individual team at #100 on the raw list.

So Kent State's #1 ranking is an illusion. It's not that they aren't good, as they've held these teams to an average of about 85 yards per game, far less than the teams' aggregate average. But when corrected for their schedule, Kent State ranks #21, not #1. Their raw average is helped by an opening contest against Murray State, whom they held to -65 yards (in college, sacks count as rushing yards).

These adjusted rankings can be found on SportsRatings' adjusted Rushing Defense stats page, and now I'm including the raw rankings right next to the adjusted rankings so it's easy to compare. For those too lazy to click, here's an excerpt:

Raw  Adj Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  5   1. Iowa                         6-2   286.2[ 10]   51.6[  1]  234.5[ 81]
  3   2. Boston College               3-5   290.9[ 11]   74.1[  2]  216.8[ 62]
 11   3. South Carolina               6-2   324.8[ 29]   74.8[  3]  250.0[103]
  6   4. Arizona                      7-1   308.8[ 21]   76.8[  4]  231.9[ 78]
  4   5. Ohio State                   8-1   252.2[  3]   78.9[  5]  173.3[ 13]
 21   6. Mississippi St               7-2   300.0[ 15]   84.0[  6]  215.9[ 58]
  2   7. Boise St                     7-0   257.9[  4]   87.4[  7]  170.4[ 12]
  7   8. Pittsburgh                   5-3   283.6[  9]   92.6[  8]  190.9[ 32]
 16   9. Arizona St                   4-4   338.7[ 38]   98.3[  9]  240.4[ 92]
  9  10. TCU                          9-0   222.3[  1]  104.0[ 10]  118.2[  1]
 37  11. LSU                          7-1   273.6[  6]  105.8[ 11]  167.8[ 11]
 24  12. Auburn                       9-0   323.0[ 28]  106.4[ 12]  216.6[ 60]
 28  13. Syracuse                     6-2   307.4[ 19]  108.2[ 13]  199.2[ 44]
 10  14. West Virginia                5-3   309.2[ 22]  109.8[ 14]  199.3[ 45]
 30  15. Michigan St                  8-1   334.9[ 35]  111.5[ 15]  223.3[ 71]
 27  16. Texas                        4-4   233.2[  2]  112.0[ 16]  121.2[  3]
  8  17. Texas A&M                    5-3   294.0[ 12]  114.7[ 17]  179.2[ 16]
 31  18. California                   4-4   282.5[  8]  115.4[ 18]  167.1[ 10]
 18  19. Georgia                      4-5   301.2[ 17]  115.8[ 19]  185.4[ 22]
 26  20. Illinois                     5-3   296.6[ 13]  116.3[ 20]  180.2[ 17]
  1  21. Kent St                      4-4   365.7[ 55]  116.6[ 21]  249.1[100]
 40  22. Stanford                     7-1   312.7[ 25]  117.9[ 22]  194.7[ 38]

So now we can answer the question: who has a better rushing defense, Stanford or Kent State? and right now the winner is Kent State, by one position, #21 to #22. Realistically the answer is "it's too close to call" but if we had to pick one or the other, Kent State it is. But instead of having 38 teams in between them, they are side-by-side. Kent State leads by a nose. The figures suggest that against an average I-A team on a neutral field, Kent State would give up 116.6 yards and Stanford 117.9 on the ground.

Iowa, the #5 team in raw numbers, actually has the top rush rushing defense in the country by a decent margin. Like Kent State, Boise State also drops when schedule is considered, from #2 to #7. Texas A&M, who has played mainly pass-happy teams, is overrated at #8 raw, falling to #17 in the corrected figures.

Other teams that move up when schedule is considered include SEC teams South Carolina, Mississippi State, LSU, and Auburn, reflecting the great rushing offenses in that league. Georgia, however, remains roughly the same, probably due to the fact that they've played enough pass-oriented team (Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana Lafayette, Kentucky) that their raw average is pretty accurate to start with.

There is also our Yards-Per-Carry Rushing Defense listing, which takes things down to a per-carry basis rather than per-game. These are figured a bit differently but also correct for opposition. In that list, Kent State is #14 and Stanford #24, more evidence that the Golden Flashes really are a bit better than the Cardinal in ground defense, but still a lot closer than raw per-game numbers would suggest.

 

Yardage Analysis After Week 4: Arizona defense makes them best in yardage

Yardage analysis, or comparing team's average yardage gains after adjusting for the teams they played, can give a clue as to exactly why teams are failing or succeeding, and point out teams that may begin to have success if they turn those yards into points more effectively. These are the early results (games through 9/25/2010) for this season.

Let's get right into it. After week four, here are the top schedule-corrected rushing teams:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Air Force                    3-1   403.8[ 53]  366.7[  1]   37.0[126]
  2. Michigan                     4-0   568.3[  1]  359.0[  2]  209.2[ 68]
  3. Nebraska                     4-0   490.9[ 12]  348.6[  3]  142.3[107]
  4. Georgia Tech                 2-2   405.0[ 52]  318.8[  4]   86.1[124]
  5. Navy                         2-1   407.1[ 49]  311.8[  5]   95.2[121]

Note that three are the usual suspects, triple-option teams Air Force, Georgia Tech, and Navy. Rich Rodriguez' offense is very run-oriented and Michigan has the #1 rusher in the nation with Denard Robinson, and the Wolverines are #2 in the country as a team. Nebraska, who was a traditional rushing power for decades before a largely-unsuccessful dabbling with pro-style offenses recently, comes in at #3 and has their own running quarterback once again.

At #6 is last year's #1, Nevada, and at #7 is ground-game powerhouse Oregon. Not many surprises in rushing offense.

Let's look at passing offense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Hawaii                       2-2   556.1[  2]   95.5[104]  460.5[  1]
  2. Arkansas                     3-1   549.6[  4]   97.2[100]  452.3[  2]
  3. Louisiana Tech               1-3   416.5[ 43]    6.9[129]  409.5[  3]
  4. Arizona St                   2-2   495.9[ 10]  128.4[ 80]  367.4[  4]
  5. Oklahoma                     4-0   473.9[ 21]  117.8[ 87]  356.0[  5]

A little more interesting. Hawaii had 459 passing yards against USC and threw for 7 touchdowns against Charleston Southern last weekend. Arkansas' Ryan Mallet is the most productive passer so far so the Razorbacks' #2 showing is expected.

Louisiana Tech is a team that has made a big transition from a run-oriented offense to a spread attack led by ex-Troy offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. Apparently it's having an effect as the Bulldogs are racking up huge passing stats—while ranking dead last in rushing. All three of the top passing teams are struggling on the ground.

Arizona State is another team whose passing game has been juiced by a major change in the offense from last season, and like Arkansas they have an ex-Michigan quarterback at the helm (Steven Threet). Oklahoma at #5 is relying a lot on the pass despite having DeMarco Murray in the backfield.

Taking a look at overall offensive yardage production, a few more balanced teams sneak in:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Michigan                     4-0   568.3[  1]  359.0[  2]  209.2[ 68]
  2. Hawaii                       2-2   556.1[  2]   95.5[104]  460.5[  1]
  3. Iowa                         3-1   552.5[  3]  248.6[ 14]  303.8[ 16]
  4. Arkansas                     3-1   549.6[  4]   97.2[100]  452.3[  2]
  5. California                   2-2   539.0[  5]  268.6[ 10]  270.4[ 30]

Michigan's balance puts them at #1 ahead of Hawaii with Arkansas at #4. Iowa and California make the top five as they're doing well in both areas, particularly the Hawkeyes who at this time are the only team in the top 25 in both rushing and passing yards. Last year's Iowa offense was only average, while their defense won games for them, so it will be interesting to see if these numbers hold up.

Despite ranking #14 in rushing, Iowa was unable to move the ball on the ground against Arizona, and that is reflected in the Wildcats' early rushing defense ranking:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Arizona                      4-0   149.9[  1]   20.1[  1]  129.8[ 15]
  2. Virginia                     2-1   192.7[  4]   35.6[  2]  157.0[ 25]
  3. Illinois                     2-1   317.2[ 36]   52.9[  3]  264.2[104]
  4. Boise St                     3-0   216.3[  6]   62.0[  4]  154.3[ 22]
  5. Central Florida              2-2   162.2[  2]   63.8[  5]   98.3[  6]

At #2, Virginia limited USC to 147 yards on the ground but have also played two FCS teams which are harder to grade. Illinois at #3 might not last either as they allowed 163 yards from Northern Illinois but they held Missouri to under 100.

Boise State shut down both Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams and Oregon State's JacQuizz Rodgers, and held Wyoming to negative yardage, so they're definitely for real (and they're #1 on a per-carry basis). Central Florida had a top ten rushing defense last year and they recently held Kansas State's Daniel Thomas to just 76 yards.

Let's take a look at total defense next:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Arizona                      4-0   149.9[  1]   20.1[  1]  129.8[ 15]
  2. Central Florida              2-2   162.2[  2]   63.8[  5]   98.3[  6]
  3. Colorado                     2-1   174.9[  3]   69.3[  6]  105.5[  9]
  4. Virginia                     2-1   192.7[  4]   35.6[  2]  157.0[ 25]
  5. Texas A&M                    3-0   215.6[  5]  211.2[112]    4.3[  1]

Arizona has put the lid on the rush so far this year and is good at pass defense, too. Central Florida and Colorado have both been excellent in both areas. Colorado may be a surprise but even though they gave up 52 points to California they held the Bears to nearly as few yards as Arizona, and held Hawaii to their lowest passing total.

Texas A&M is the oddball, with a crazy passing number so far (not counting last night's Oklahoma State game) but with a terrible rushing defense number. The Aggies results are almost certainly due to having played only three games and the "newness" of the season in general. They've only given up a total of 227 rushing yards, so their low ranking there is as flukish as their #1 pass defense rating.

Notice that four of the top five in rushing defense are among the top ten in total defense, the exception being Illinois whose passing defense has been dismal. Let's take a look at pass defense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Texas A&M                    3-0   215.6[  5]  211.2[112]    4.3[  1]
  2. Navy                         2-1   321.7[ 39]  304.7[128]   17.0[  2]
  3. Rutgers                      2-1   267.2[ 14]  192.4[ 96]   74.7[  3]
  4. Florida Atlantic             1-2   328.6[ 46]  253.4[124]   75.1[  4]
  5. Army                         3-1   223.4[  7]  142.9[ 52]   80.5[  5]

Here is where we note that per-attempt passing defense is a much better measure, since teams with poor rushing defense aren't thrown against much, making their pass defense look great. The top five in per-attempt pass defense are:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Texas A&M                    3-0     7.9[  8]    3.9[ 59]    4.0[  1]
  2. Virginia                     2-1     6.2[  2]    2.1[  7]    4.0[  2]
  3. Alabama                      4-0     7.7[  5]    3.6[ 40]    4.1[  3]
  4. Navy                         2-1    11.5[ 75]    7.0[128]    4.4[  4]
  5. Arizona                      4-0     6.0[  1]    1.5[  2]    4.4[  5]

Now we still have Texas A&M and Navy in the top five, but Rutgers and Army fall to more average positions while Florida Atlantic is only 83rd, showing that teams just aren't throwing on them—they're running against FAU's 124th-ranked rushing offense. Note that there are over 120 teams in these rankings because several FCS teams have played 2 or more games against Division I-A opponents.

Navy's poor rushing defense is strange, as they are a run-based team and finished #26 in rushing defense last year. They lost all three linebackers, however, and that may have made a big difference. It's early in the year and the Midshipmen have played just three games so these results may be a fluke, but since they rank poorly in both per-game and per-attempt rushing defense there might be something to it.

Finally, a team's total yardage differential—yards on offense vs. yards yielded on defense—can often identify teams that are having success in the trenches but haven't had success in the final score yet. Here are the top ten teams that are outgaining their opponents, also corrected for opposition:

Rank Team                         Rec   Yds±   Off  Def
  1. Arizona                      4-0   276.7   36    1
  2. Boise St                     3-0   273.8   13    6
  3. Alabama                      4-0   270.5    8    8
  4. Iowa                         3-1   248.6    3   27
  5. California                   2-2   240.4    5   26
  6. Arkansas                     3-1   224.9    4   41
  7. Nevada                       4-0   210.8    7   25
  8. Virginia                     2-1   201.2   58    4
  9. Nebraska                     4-0   186.7   12   28
 10. Texas A&M                    3-0   184.1   55    5

Not too many surprises in the top ten as six of these teams are undefeated (before last night). Iowa's only loss is to Arizona who rules the yardage game so far. Cal also lost to Arizona, as well as to #7 Nevada. Arkansas nearly beat #3 Alabama; the Tide are perhaps tellingly the only team in the top ten in both offense and defense, though #2 Boise is close. The only surprise team on the list is Virginia at #8.

The Cavaliers lost to USC but made a good game of it, falling only 17-14. While their offense has barely been above-average, their defense has been rock-solid. But as we noted above, two of their three games have been against FCS (I-AA) opponents, so their performance has basically been judged by the USC game. If that game was a fluke, then so is their top ten ranking here.

Yardage Stats - Yards per game vs. yards per attempt

When comparing offenses and defenses, most yardage stats for a team are given in yards per game. It's assumed that good teams gain a lot of yards per game and yield few. But in some cases, looking at yards per game is misleading, and looking instead at yards per attempt is more instructive.

Take Wake Forest, for example. In a 13-10 loss last Saturday they held Navy to zero passing yards, and accordingly their average passing yards yielded per game went down. However, Navy didn't even attempt a single pass the entire game! Everyone knows Navy doesn't pass much, and they only average 77.25 yards per game. But even when adjusted for opposition, Wake Forest's passing defense stats improve: last week they were #101 in per-game pass defense, and this week they're #68, for "holding" Navy to 0 yards.

That's why yards per attempt statistics are important. By that measure, neither Navy's passing offense nor Wake Forest's passing defense are drastically affected when Navy doesn't attempt a pass.

Lately I've created four new stats pages: for Rushing Offense Per Carry, Rushing Defense Per Carry, Passing Offense Per Attempt, and Pass Defense Per Attempt. All are adjusted, of course, for opposition, and give a more complete view of a team's offense and defense. But they aren't without their own misleading aspects as well. Here's a rundown of each, compared to its per-game equivalent.

Rushing Defense

Here are the top five teams in Per-Game Rushing Defense & their rank in Per-Carry Rushing Defense

Rank Team                         Rec   YPG [rank]  YPC[Rank] 
  1. Alabama                      8-0   48.2[  1]   2.1[  1]
  2. Ohio State                   6-2   65.9[  2]   2.4[  3]
  3. Texas                        7-0   69.1[  3]   2.4[  3]
  4. West Virginia                6-1   69.9[  4]   2.5[  5]
  5. Wisconsin                    5-2   78.8[  5]   2.8[ 15]

For rushing defense, there isn't a lot of difference between per-game and per-carry average. Teams with good defenses will do well on both measures, as there are no odd circumstances that cause a schizm. Since both are corrected for their opponents' rushing ability, the lists are fairly similar.

Rushing Offense

But when we look from the offensive perspective, things are a bit different. Teams like Georgia Tech, Navy, and Air Force—all of whom run the triple option and run the ball 90% of the time—tend to dominate the per-game rushing stats for logical reasons. But are they really the best at running the ball, just because they carry the ball 80 times? 

Rank Team                         Rec    YPG[rank]   YPC[rank]
  1. Nevada                       4-3   329.5[  1]    7.1[  1]
  2. Georgia Tech                 7-1   325.6[  2]    5.6[  7]
  3. Navy                         6-2   286.5[  3]    4.5[ 29]
  4. Florida                      7-0   285.4[  4]    6.1[  3]
  5. Air Force                    4-4   272.0[  5]    4.4[ 37]

While it's no surprise that Florida registers well both in game and per-carry average, Nevada coming out #1 in both measures shows how strong they are on the ground. And Georgia Tech deserves its rep as a great running team. But the service academies fall short; while they run so often their per-game averages are great, per-carry they are only above-average to good. Without seeing the per-game averages you don't get a full picture of the Navy and Air Force offense.

Passing Offense

As in rushing, the teams that pass the most don't necessarily have the best averages:

Rank Team                         Rec    YPG[rank]  YPA[rank]
  1. Texas Tech                   5-3   426.8[  1]  8.0[ 27]
  2. Houston                      6-1   394.5[  2]  7.3[ 48] 
  3. Hawaii                       2-5   354.5[  3]  8.1[ 26]
  4. Bowling Green                3-5   347.5[  4]  7.1[ 59]
  5. Kansas                       5-2   346.2[  5]  7.6[ 38]

A common thread among these teams is some type of spread offense, and an emphasis on quick, short passes. This naturally keeps the average down, and makes comparing teams by average yardage less informative about the team's passing game.

Not only that, but the same teams that cause the rushing figures to be disparate also cause some confusion with the per-attempt passing averages: these teams pass so few times per game, they actually end up with a very high per-attempt score. Here are the top five in Yards Per Attempt:

Rank Team                         Rec    YPA[rank]  YPG[rank]
  1. Georgia Tech                 7-1    12.1[  1]  153.8[111]
  2. Virginia Tech                5-2    10.7[  2]  198.8[ 77]
  3. TCU                          7-0     9.9[  3]  246.2[ 34]
  4. Miami FL                     5-2     9.7[  4]  277.9[ 19]
  5. Navy                         6-2     9.4[  5]   69.1[118]

These results are even more radical! Georgia Tech and Navy, two of the "worst" passing teams in the country, rank as two of the best per-attempt. Maybe if they passed more they could dominate? Clearly, the surprise factor is at work here. Teams key on the run against Navy, Air Force, Georgia Tech, et al, so it's not surprising that the few times they throw, they tend to go for it all. And sometimes succeed. There's little correlation between a team's per-attempt average and the quality of its passing game, so due to this and the other issue above, it's best to reference per-game statistics if you want to see which teams have good passing games.

Passing Defense

But on defense, the per-attempt stats are necessary. This is due to of one of the per-game stats' biggest flaws: teams with poor rushing defense often grade as teams with great passing defense—simply because no team has to bother with putting the ball in the air if they can get yards on the ground.

Rank Team                         Rec    YPG[rank]  YPA[rank]
  1. Florida                      7-0   109.7[  1]   5.0[  5]
  2. Nebraska                     4-3   128.3[  2]   5.4[ 13]
  3. South Carolina               6-2   128.3[  3]   5.6[ 18]
  4. Boise St                     7-0   138.8[  4]   4.9[  4]
  5. Texas                        7-0   149.9[  5]   5.6[ 16]

So far, no problem: the teams that look like the best per-game are solid, and rate well per-attempt, too. But look a little further down the list and you see teams like this:

 13. Bowling Green                3-5   163.6[ 13]   6.8[ 49]
 14. Eastern Michigan             0-7   163.7[ 14]   7.5[ 84]

Unlike the teams above, Bowling Green and Eastern Michigan have terrible rushing defenses, ranking 116th and 120th. Do they really have top 25 passing defenses to go with that? It's possible, but it's also likely that opponents are playing the "why pass when we can run so easily?" game, passing for a small amount during the game, and making the pass defense look good on a per-game basis. And looking at the per-attempt defensive stats, this seems to be true. Bowling Green isn't terrible at #49, but it's a lot less appealing than #13. And Eastern Michigan is pretty bad in reality, ranking #84 instead of #14. Passing defense is one area where per-attempt stats are necessary for confirmation that a team is actually good against the pass.

Conclusions

The most informative per-attempt stats are Pass Defense - Yards Per Attempt, and Rushing Offense - Yards Per Carry. Both give important additional information that the per-game figures don't. The former works to expose teams that have great per-game averages but just aren't being tested. The latter shows which teams really have the best rushing offenses, independent of the fact that some teams run almost exclusively.

Rushing Defense - Yards Per Carry mostly confirms what we know from the per-game stats, but it can be an important second reference.

Finally, Passing Offense - Yards Per Attempt can be a misleading statistic for a couple of reasons. One, teams with spread attacks that pass often and for short yardage end up looking worse, while teams that rarely attempt a pass can have outsized averages simply based on small sample, and on the "surprise factor" that makes their passing game look powerful when in reality they just catch teams off guard.

Yardage stats through week 7

I've finally updated the yardage stats. Here are the highlights through last weekend (week seven):

Total Yardage Differential: A team's total offense minus their opponents' total yardage. There's a big debate as to who is #1. By wins and losses, Iowa and Alabama lead the Success ratings; for score margin, Texas, Alabama, and Florida lead the Strength ratings. Yardage per game, adjusted for opposition, is the next derivative down the line.

Rank Team                         Rec   Yards  Off  Def
  1. Florida                      6-0   295.8    3    2
  2. Alabama                      7-0   273.0   15    1
  3. TCU                          6-0   222.7    6   11
  4. Texas                        6-0   211.1   20    4
  5. Oklahoma                     3-3   203.7   11   16
  6. Boise St                     6-0   200.6   16   15
  7. Southern Cal                 5-1   170.0   27   12
  8. Auburn                       5-2   157.7    2   45
  9. Tennessee                    3-3   156.4   40   10
 10. Brigham Young                6-1   154.2   18   28

Not surprisingly, Florida and Alabama are on top. TCU is third here, with Texas and then Oklahoma showing up strong like they do in the Strength ratings. The big surprise may be Tennessee. Only 3-3, they are in the top 25 in Strength and in the top ten in total yardage differential. This is further evidence that they are a better team than advertised.

Total Offense: From a pre-season perspective, it's not a shock that Houston is #1 in total offense as they were among the leaders last season and returned the bulk of that side of the ball. But Auburn being #2 is a real eye-opener. Who would have thought the Tigers would be ahead of the Gators at this point in the season?

Rank Team                         Rec   Total(rank) Rush(rank)  Pass(rank)
  1. Houston                      5-1   541.0[  1]  122.8[ 88]  418.1[  1]
  2. Auburn                       5-2   503.5[  2]  287.1[  4]  216.4[ 65]
  3. Florida                      6-0   488.0[  3]  283.2[  5]  204.7[ 77]
  4. Texas Tech                   5-2   484.3[  4]   68.8[117]  415.4[  2]
  5. Georgia Tech                 6-1   480.6[  5]  324.7[  1]  155.9[107]
  6. TCU                          6-0   475.9[  6]  242.4[  8]  233.5[ 48]
  7. Fresno St                    3-3   475.0[  7]  291.2[  3]  183.8[ 92]
  8. Florida St                   2-4   475.0[  8]  162.0[ 42]  312.9[  9]
  9. Arkansas                     3-3   474.3[  9]  161.0[ 44]  313.3[  8]
 10. Nevada                       3-3   472.3[ 10]  297.6[  2]  174.6[100]

The rest of the list has some mild surprises. Texas Tech (passing) and Georgia Tech (rushing) aren't out of place, but TCU is more known for their defense, and Arkansas has made some major strides since last year.

Rushing Offense: The usual suspects are in the top ten: option teams Georgia Tech, Navy, and Air Force are #1, 6, and 7, while Florida is strong as expected.

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Georgia Tech                 6-1   480.6[  5]  324.7[  1]  155.9[107]
  2. Nevada                       3-3   472.3[ 10]  297.6[  2]  174.6[100]
  3. Fresno St                    3-3   475.0[  7]  291.2[  3]  183.8[ 92]
  4. Auburn                       5-2   503.5[  2]  287.1[  4]  216.4[ 65]
  5. Florida                      6-0   488.0[  3]  283.2[  5]  204.7[ 77]
  6. Navy                         5-2   355.6[ 67]  281.2[  6]   74.4[118]
  7. Air Force                    4-3   318.5[ 99]  276.4[  7]   42.1[120]
  8. TCU                          6-0   475.9[  6]  242.4[  8]  233.5[ 48]
  9. Alabama                      7-0   463.5[ 15]  233.4[  9]  230.0[ 53]
 10. Alabama-Birmingham           2-4   349.2[ 75]  230.8[ 10]  118.4[116]

Nevada's spot at #2 is not unexpected but their imbalance between the run and pass is, to some extent. The key to Auburn's offensive success has been the run, and TCU has improved their ground game. Alabama, of course, had to replace Glen Coffee but Mark Ingram stepped up into one of the year's great backs, and for many he is leading the Heisman race. And look at 2-4 UAB. It's a good thing they can run the ball because their passing output is negligible: quarterback Joe Webb has 42 more passing yards than rushing yards.

Passing Offense: The top teams are pretty obvious: Houston, Texas Tech, Hawaii, and Kansas have been among the top teams the last few years with their pass-centric offenses. Note that none of the teams ranks above #88 in rushing, and Hawaii is dead last.

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Houston                      5-1   541.0[  1]  122.8[ 88]  418.1[  1]
  2. Texas Tech                   5-2   484.3[  4]   68.8[117]  415.4[  2]
  3. Hawaii                       2-4   417.5[ 31]   52.3[120]  365.2[  3]
  4. Kansas                       5-1   460.0[ 17]  109.7[ 95]  350.2[  4]
  5. Bowling Green                3-4   421.4[ 28]   74.5[115]  346.9[  5]
  6. Duke                         3-3   412.9[ 35]   88.5[111]  324.3[  6]
  7. Cincinnati                   6-0   464.0[ 14]  140.1[ 69]  323.9[  7]
  8. Arkansas                     3-3   474.3[  9]  161.0[ 44]  313.3[  8]
  9. Florida St                   2-4   475.0[  8]  162.0[ 42]  312.9[  9]
 10. Florida Atlantic             1-4   464.2[ 13]  153.7[ 54]  310.4[ 10]

Bowling Green and Duke have similar one-sidedness, but it's better than last year when they were mediocre or bad in both categories. Cincinnati finally has quarterback consistency, Tony Pike's current health issues notwithstanding, and Arkansas with Ryan Mallett is really getting it done through the air. Florida State and Florida Atlantic both have problems this year but the passing game isn't one of them.

Total Defense: Alabama narrowly edges Florida so far. The Gators returned all their starters, as well as backups, but the Tide edges them with tight rushing defense.

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Alabama                      7-0   190.4[  1]   48.6[  1]  141.8[  5]
  2. Florida                      6-0   192.1[  2]   90.7[ 16]  101.3[  1]
  3. Nebraska                     4-2   232.3[  3]  113.6[ 35]  118.7[  3]
  4. Texas                        6-0   234.5[  4]   58.7[  3]  175.7[ 27]
  5. South Carolina               5-2   237.6[  5]  125.0[ 46]  112.5[  2]
  6. Clemson                      3-3   238.3[  6]   89.6[ 15]  148.7[  8]
  7. Iowa                         7-0   242.4[  7]  102.3[ 26]  140.1[  4]
  8. Miami FL                     5-1   244.0[  8]   84.6[ 12]  159.3[ 12]
  9. Ohio State                   5-2   244.9[  9]   53.5[  2]  191.3[ 36]
 10. Tennessee                    3-3   248.7[ 10]   74.0[  6]  174.7[ 24]

But the big surprise is Nebraska's re-emergence as a defensive force. Despite last week's problems with Texas Tech the pass defense is doing a great job, and Ndamukong Suh has been touted as the token Heisman candidate on defense. Texas got props for its run-stop against Oklahoma last weekend, while Iowa and Ohio State can attribute most of their success this year to defense.

Rushing Defense: Alabama and Ohio State are #1 and #2, with Texas at #3 after holding Oklahoma to negative yardage last week. USC is no surprise as they've been in the top ten in this category for years.

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Alabama                      7-0   190.4[  1]   48.6[  1]  141.8[  5]
  2. Ohio State                   5-2   244.9[  9]   53.5[  2]  191.3[ 36]
  3. Texas                        6-0   234.5[  4]   58.7[  3]  175.7[ 27]
  4. West Virginia                5-1   292.7[ 23]   59.3[  4]  233.3[ 77]
  5. Southern Cal                 5-1   254.2[ 12]   71.1[  5]  183.1[ 31]
  6. Tennessee                    3-3   248.7[ 10]   74.0[  6]  174.7[ 24]
  7. Arizona St                   4-2   294.0[ 25]   74.9[  7]  219.1[ 60]
  8. Wisconsin                    5-2   340.0[ 43]   74.9[  8]  265.0[108]
  9. Oklahoma                     3-3   267.7[ 16]   76.9[  9]  190.7[ 35]
 10. TCU                          6-0   253.1[ 11]   80.7[ 10]  172.4[ 21]

Tennessee's problems last season were not on defense, where they were very good and continue to be. Wisconsin is the only team that's strong against the run than has a major problem against the pass, though West Virginia and Arizona State definitely invite teams to throw the ball, too.

Passing Defense: This is the last reliable category of statistics. As it reflects per-game performace, it doesn't take into account how much opponents adjust their offense for a given team. Therefore, the main problem situation occurs when a team is weak against the run and opponents exploit that and don't need to pass the ball. This leaves some teams looking very strong against the pass when they're not. This isn't so much the case with the top ten, though.

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. Florida                      6-0   192.1[  2]   90.7[ 16]  101.3[  1]
  2. South Carolina               5-2   237.6[  5]  125.0[ 46]  112.5[  2]
  3. Nebraska                     4-2   232.3[  3]  113.6[ 35]  118.7[  3]
  4. Iowa                         7-0   242.4[  7]  102.3[ 26]  140.1[  4]
  5. Alabama                      7-0   190.4[  1]   48.6[  1]  141.8[  5]
  6. Virginia                     3-3   285.3[ 19]  138.1[ 61]  147.1[  6]
  7. Kentucky                     3-3   283.8[ 18]  135.3[ 58]  148.5[  7]
  8. Clemson                      3-3   238.3[  6]   89.6[ 15]  148.7[  8]
  9. Oregon                       5-1   256.1[ 13]  105.4[ 30]  150.6[  9]
 10. Utah                         5-1   290.9[ 21]  138.5[ 62]  152.3[ 10]

Since all of these teams are average or above against the run, the passing figures are valid. Florida was expected to be #1 in this category, so no surprise there. South Carolina, Nebraska, and Iowa all owe their success this season to defense. #6 Virginia, #7 Kentucky, and #10 Utah are all better teams to run the ball against.

I've made a new set of stats to reference when judging offense and defense, particularly passing defense, based on per-attempt and per-carry stats. That's for the next post.

Best defense of 2008: Where does USC rank all-time?

The 2008 USC Trojans were dominant on defense: they shut out three of their opponents, held three more to a field goal, two more to a touchdown, and two more to just 10 points. One of those held to a field goal was Ohio State; Oregon, which finished with the #3 scoring offense in 2008, was held to 10 points.

So where does USC rank all-time? Before the Rose Bowl the commentators remarked that USC was, at that point, the all-time best when their average points allowed was subtracted from the average game score for the year. I'll look at that measure, adjusted for competition of course, in a bit.

First, here are the top ten defenses of 2008:

Top defenses, 2008 football season
#   Team                       record   adj. ave      
 1. Southern Cal                12-1     6.71 [  1]
 2. Florida                     13-1     8.33 [  2]
 3. TCU                         11-2     9.87 [  3]
 4. Ohio State                  10-3    11.88 [  4]
 5. Texas                       12-1    11.89 [  5]
 6. Penn State                  11-2    13.29 [  6]
 7. Iowa                         9-4    13.42 [  7]
 8. Alabama                     12-2    14.70 [  8]
 9. Boise St                    12-1    14.80 [  9]
10. Wake Forest                  8-5    16.37 [ 10]

USC allowed just 6.7 points per game, adjusted for their competition. Their raw average was exactly 9 points per game, up from 7.75 before the bowl game. But they played a tougher-than-average schedule, as does almost every BCS conference team, especially one that goes to a BCS bowl game. Their adjusted average stayed almost exactly the same after the Rose Bowl as holding Penn State to 24 isn't bad at all.

Florida's strong showing against top offense Oklahoma boosted them to #2. #3 TCU held Boise State to 16 points and #4 Ohio State held Texas to 24 points, their lowest total of the year.

#5 Texas and #6 Penn State had solid defenses to go with their offenses; the Nittany Lions' performance against USC didn't affect them much as USC has a top ten offense. #7 Iowa and #10 Wake Forest built their winning seasons on defense as they didn't have nearly as much to offer on offense, while Alabama and Boise State had more but were still defense-oriented teams.

In terms of yardage, TCU ranked slightly better than USC, mainly due to their extremely stingy rushing defense.

Rank Team                         Rec   Total[rank] Rush[rank]  Pass[rank]
  1. TCU                         11-2   201.9[  1]   43.6[  1]  158.2[  5]
  2. Southern Cal                12-1   224.9[  2]   85.8[  6]  139.0[  1]
  3. Florida                     13-1   267.1[  3]   99.2[ 15]  167.9[  8]
  4. Alabama                     12-2   270.5[  4]   71.5[  2]  198.9[ 35]
  5. South Carolina               7-6   284.8[  5]  109.9[ 20]  174.8[ 10]
  6. Tennessee                    5-7   285.4[  6]   99.0[ 14]  186.4[ 21]
  7. Connecticut                  8-5   288.3[  7]  112.3[ 23]  176.0[ 12]
  8. Utah                        13-0   288.7[  8]   91.1[ 11]  197.6[ 34]
  9. Texas                       12-1   292.9[  9]   82.9[  5]  210.0[ 51]
 10. Ohio State                  10-3   293.0[ 10]  112.5[ 25]  180.4[ 14]

The Trojans were second and Florida third, with many of the teams from the scoring defense list joined by South Carolina, Tennessee, and Connecticut.

Back to scoring defense, let's look at how USC ranks for the decade:

Top defenses 2000-2008 seasons (uncorrected for year played)
#   Year Team                  record   adj. ave      
 1. 2000 Florida State           11-2    6.54 [  1]
 2. 2008 Southern Cal            12-1    6.71 [  1]
 3. 2005 Ohio State              10-2    7.26 [  1]
 4. 2001 Miami (Florida)         12-0    7.54 [  1]
 5. 2003 Louisiana State         13-1    7.74 [  1]
 6. 2008 Florida                 13-1    8.33 [  2]
 7. 2004 Southern Cal            13-0    8.80 [  1]
 8. 2002 Kansas State            11-2    9.27 [  1]
 9. 2000 Oklahoma                13-0    9.56 [  2]
10. 2002 Ohio State              14-0    9.61 [  2]

USC ranks #2 among teams from this decade, with Florida coming in at #6. Florida State's 2000 team that lost to Oklahoma in the national championship game. Their raw average was just over 10 points, but they held 11 of their 13 opponents to 14 points or fewer, and faced many of the year's best offenses. Note that two of USC's shutouts were Washington and Washington State and that's what probably gives 2000 FSU the edge.

Let's see what happens if we include all the teams from the 80s and 90s as well:

Top defenses 1980-2008 seasons (uncorrected for year played)
#   Year Team                   record   adj. ave     
 1. 1985 Michigan                10-1-1  1.87 [  1]
 2. 1980 Florida State           10-2    3.13 [  1]
 3. 1991 Miami FL                12-0    3.87 [  1]
 4. 1980 Alabama                 10-2    4.16 [  2]
 5. 1980 Nebraska                10-2    4.17 [  3]
 6. 1991 Washington              12-0    4.56 [  2]
 7. 1983 Miami FL                11-1    4.67 [  1]
 8. 1980 Southern California      8-2-1  4.80 [  4]
 9. 1986 Oklahoma                11-1    4.81 [  1]
10. 1988 Miami FL                11-1    4.84 [  1]

...and the 2008 Trojans have disappeared from the list ; as have the Seminoles and everyone else from this decade. The 1980 Trojans are on the list, though; apparently, 1980 was a really good year for defense, with four teams on the list. Or could that be a result of lower scoring in those days? To correct for rule changes and other things that can boost or quell scoring, we subtract the year's average game score from the team's adjusted average defensive score.

Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
#   year Team              rec    adj. ave    year's ave   difference
1.  1985 Michigan          10-1-1  1.87 [  1]   22.26        20.39
2.  2008 Southern Cal      12-1    6.71 [  1]   26.34        19.63
3.  2000 Florida State     11-2    6.54 [  1]   25.74        19.20
4.  1991 Miami FL          12-0    3.87 [  1]   23.04        19.17
5t  2001 Miami FL          12-0    7.54 [  1]   26.56        19.02
5t  2005 Ohio State        10-2    7.26 [  1]   26.28        19.02
7.  1996 Ohio State        11-1    6.60 [  1]   25.46        18.86
8.  1988 Miami FL          11-1    4.84 [  1]   23.66        18.82
9.  2003 Louisiana State   13-1    7.74 [  1]   26.24        18.50
10. 1991 Washington        12-0    4.56 [  2]   23.04        18.48

This gives a much more balanced view of the relative performance across decades. Michigan's 1985 team still has the best season. In a year when the average score was over 22 points, the Wolverines allowed an incredible 1.87 points when adjusted for competition. They allowed 8.2 points per game in raw numbers, but that included playing Nebraska, Ohio State, and the year's number one offense, Iowa, whom they held to 12 points. Beyond that they had three shutouts and seven opponents held to single digits.

This year's USC places second, a bit ahead of 2000 FSU; the average score this year was about 0.6 points higher than in 2000, pushing USC above the Seminoles as the best defense of the decade. Two undefeated Miami teams, from 1991 and 2001, follow at 4th and 5th, with the latter tied with Ohio State's 2005 squad. Another Buckeye team follows, and then a third Hurricane defense at #8. LSU's BCS title team from 2003 and Washington—the second undefeated team from 1991—rounds out the top ten.

So USC can fairly argue they had the best defense in college football this decade, and over the last 20+ years. If you look from the 1940s on, or even more severely, the 1870s on, the defensive numbers almost become meaningless, with negative averages due to the best teams racking up very high score and garnering 10 or more shutouts, so we'll have to stick the the last few decades.

Despite loss, Oklahoma's offense still #1 in 2008 in scoring and yardage

Despite scoring just 14 points against Florida in a loss to the Gators, the 2008 Oklahoma Sooners finished the season with the #1 scoring offense of the year. The performance did lower their averages—both raw and adjusted—quite a bit, but not enough to drop them below #2 Florida, who had 24 points which was below their average as well.

Oklahoma's relatively poor performance also lowered their standing in the all-time offensive rankings which I posted just before the game. They also remained #1 in adjusted total yardage on offense.

Here are the final top ten offenses of 2008:

Top scoring offenses, 2008 football season
 #  Team                       record   adj. ave      
 1. Oklahoma                    12-2    54.47  
 2. Florida                     13-1    46.38
 3. Oregon                      10-3    44.66
 4. Texas                       12-1    42.91
 5. Texas Tech                  11-2    42.91
 6. Missouri                    10-4    42.71
 7. Tulsa                       11-3    41.58
 8. Penn State                  11-2    40.79
 9. Southern Cal                12-1    40.65
10. Oklahoma St                  9-4    39.45

Before the BCS title game, Oklahoma's adjusted average scoring output was 56.56, so they lost over two points after the loss. But they're still #1 for the year by over 8 points per game when opposition is taken into account. Florida finished second on offense, losing over a full point after facing the Sooners. The expected score of that game, using the adjusted averages for offense and defense, was about 41-40, so both teams fell short of expectations. (Or their defenses exceeded expectations.)

Oregon finished the year #3, followed by three high-power Big Twelve passing offenses: Texas, Texas Tech, and Missouri. Tulsa's strong passing and rushing attack put them at #7, then Penn State, USC, and Oklahoma State fill out the top ten. Three of the top ten offenses in the country were from Oklahoma teams.

In terms of total yardage generated on offense, Oklahoma is #1 as well.

Rank Team                         Rec   Total(rank) Rush(rank)  Pass(rank)
  1. Oklahoma                    12-2   564.0[  1]  210.3[ 16]  353.7[  3]
  2. Tulsa                       11-3   538.8[  2]  240.2[  8]  298.6[  9]
  3. Houston                      8-5   538.6[  3]  144.3[ 64]  394.2[  2]
  4. Texas Tech                  11-2   517.0[  4]  120.0[ 92]  397.0[  1]
  5. Oregon                      10-3   497.5[  5]  267.6[  3]  229.8[ 48]
  6. Nevada                       7-6   479.2[  6]  241.4[  6]  237.8[ 39]
  7. Missouri                    10-4   471.6[  7]  152.2[ 57]  319.4[  5]
  8. Oklahoma St                  9-4   471.3[  8]  225.0[ 12]  246.3[ 34]
  9. Southern Cal                12-1   470.4[  9]  196.2[ 25]  274.2[ 18]
 10. Texas                       12-1   467.0[ 10]  162.8[ 44]  304.1[  7]

The Sooners were 16th in rushing yards and 3rd in passing yards (all figured adjusted for competition) and overall were #1 by a wide margin. Tulsa and Houston were neck and neck for #2, with the Golden Hurricane finishing in the top 10 in both categories. Texas Tech's pass-oriented game puts them at #4.

Oregon and Nevada were both top ten in rushing with an above-average passing game that puts them at #5 and #6; Missouri is #7, mostly via the air, while Oklahoma State at #8 and USC at #10 are more balanced. #10 Texas is as balanced as Oregon and Nevada, though in the other direction.

By yardage, three of the top ten teams are from Oklahoma, and three more were from Texas.

Back to scoring: how did Oklahoma finish among the all-time comparisons? Let's go through them and see how much they dropped:

Top offenses 2000-2008 seasons (uncorrect for year played)
#   Year Team                  record   adj. ave      
1.  2008 Oklahoma               12-1    54.47 [1]  
2.  2005 Texas                  13-0    53.70 [1]
3.  2005 Southern California    12-1    52.48 [2]
4.  2001 Florida                10-2    47.91 [1] 
9.  2007 Florida                 9-4    47.36 [1] 
6.  2004 Utah                   12-0    46.91 [1] 
7.  2004 Louisville             11-1    46.81 [2] 
8.  2001 Miami (Florida)        12-0    46.80 [2] 
5.  2008 Florida                12-1    46.48 [2] 
10. 2000 Nebraska               10-2    45.26 [1] 

Oklahoma still comes out on top but not by a wide margin any more over 2005 Texas. This year's Florida squad dropped from #5 to #9, placing them lower than last year's team.

Now for the 80s, 90s, and 00s:

Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (uncorrected for year played)
#   Year Team                       record   adj. ave     
1.  2008 Oklahoma                    12-1    54.47 [  1]   
2.  1995 Nebraska                    12-0    54.30 [  1]   
3.  1989 Houston                      9-2    54.28 [  1]   
4.  2005 Texas                       13-0    53.70 [  1]   
5.  2005 Southern California         12-1    52.48 [  2]  

That's really cutting it close. Oklahoma still ranks better than 1995 Nebraska but just by a hair. Now we look at the "corrected" figures that account for the increase in overall scoring average.

Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
#   year Team              rec    adj. ave    year's ave     difference
1.  1989 Houston            9-2   54.28 [1]  -  24.13     =    30.15
2.  1983 Nebraska          12-1   51.47 [1]  -  21.93     =    29.54
3.  1995 Nebraska          12-0   54.30 [1]  -  25.20     =    29.10
4.  2008 Oklahoma          12-1   54.47 [1]  -  26.34     =    28.13
5.  2005 Texas             13-0   53.70 [1]  -  26.28     =    27.42

Oklahoma can no longer claim to have the best offense in the last 30 years, let along the last 50 or 60. The Sooners had finished first on this list just last week, and even #6 from 1940 on. But for the last three decades, they fall behind 1989 Houston and two powerhouse Nebraska teams, including the one from 1995. So the "best offense in the last dozen or so years" is the best that can be reasonably argued. Going back to 1940, 2008 Oklahoma no longer appears in the top ten.

So being the best offense of the 2008 season is going to have to be enough.

Adjusted Yardage Stats finally done: week 6

Ok, I finally got around to running the yardage stats for this season and I'll be keeping them updated now. Here are some interesting findings from week 6:

Total Offense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                   5-0   579.3 [  1]  160.6 [ 52]  418.6 [  1]
2.   Missouri                     5-0   575.6 [  2]  215.9 [ 16]  359.6 [  3]
3.   Houston                      2-3   565.3 [  3]  167.8 [ 49]  397.4 [  2]
4.   Oklahoma                     5-0   551.0 [  4]  196.7 [ 27]  354.3 [  4]
5.   Tulsa                        5-0   536.3 [  5]  211.7 [ 18]  324.5 [  6]
6.   Louisiana-Lafayette          2-3   504.3 [  6]  314.4 [  3]  189.8 [ 89]
7.   Oklahoma St                  5-0   483.9 [  7]  195.7 [ 28]  288.1 [ 15]
8.   Oregon St                    2-3   478.5 [  8]  183.1 [ 35]  295.3 [ 11]
9.   Southern Cal                 3-1   478.1 [  9]  151.3 [ 60]  326.8 [  5]
10.  Nevada                       3-2   477.9 [ 10]  275.2 [  4]  202.6 [ 73]

No big surprise here: Texas Tech and Missouri are on top, with Oklahoma, Tulsa, and Oklahoma State (who are in the top 5 in scoring offense) also in the top ten. Oregon State and Southern Cal are not surprising, but maybe Houston, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Nevada are.

The Red Raiders were #1 at the end of last year, but this time their rushing offense is a respectable #52 in stead of last season's #118. With more balance in their attack, teams can't just focus solely on stopping the pass. Most of the teams in the top ten are pass-happy teams, but Lafayette and Nevada are run-focused, while Oklahoma State is almost evenly balanced.

Passing Offense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   Texas Tech                   5-0   579.3 [  1]  160.6 [ 52]  418.6 [  1]
2.   Houston                      2-3   565.3 [  3]  167.8 [ 49]  397.4 [  2]
3.   Missouri                     5-0   575.6 [  2]  215.9 [ 16]  359.6 [  3]
4.   Oklahoma                     5-0   551.0 [  4]  196.7 [ 27]  354.3 [  4]
5.   Southern Cal                 3-1   478.1 [  9]  151.3 [ 60]  326.8 [  5]
6.   Tulsa                        5-0   536.3 [  5]  211.7 [ 18]  324.5 [  6]
7.   Kansas                       4-1   441.3 [ 20]  120.9 [ 91]  320.3 [  7]
8.   Brigham Young                5-0   415.5 [ 26]  107.7 [103]  307.8 [  8]
9.   Middle Tennessee St          2-3   338.9 [ 81]   38.0 [120]  300.8 [  9]
10.  Rice                         3-3   428.2 [ 24]  127.5 [ 80]  300.6 [ 10]

Looks quite a bit like the total yardage list, with six of the same teams. But a few lopsided passing teams make the list, like Kansas, BYU, and Rice. Middle Tennessee State has almost no rushing attack to speak of. This year in the Big Twelve, Kansas may be easier to defend against than Texas Tech, as their running game is inferior.

Rushing Offense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   Navy                         4-2   412.1 [ 30]  330.0 [  1]   82.0 [119]
2.   Georgia Tech                 4-1   441.2 [ 21]  323.1 [  2]  118.1 [113]
3.   Louisiana-Lafayette          2-3   504.3 [  6]  314.4 [  3]  189.8 [ 89]
4.   Nevada                       3-2   477.9 [ 10]  275.2 [  4]  202.6 [ 73]
5.   West Virginia                3-2   372.5 [ 57]  261.3 [  5]  111.1 [115]
6.   Baylor                       2-3   395.8 [ 44]  253.2 [  6]  142.5 [106]
7.   Connecticut                  5-1   379.4 [ 54]  249.2 [  7]  130.2 [109]
8.   Alabama                      6-0   393.7 [ 46]  236.7 [  8]  156.9 [103]
9.   TCU                          5-1   376.2 [ 56]  234.8 [  9]  141.4 [107]
10.  Florida St                   4-1   438.1 [ 22]  227.0 [ 10]  211.0 [ 65]

Speaking of rushing, it's no surprise that Navy is #1 again, nor that Georgia Tech (now led by last season's Navy coach Paul Johnson) is #2. #3 Louisiana-Lafayette may be a surprise though, as well as the fact that their passing game isn't in the bottom 20 like the Midshipmen's and the Yellow Jackets'. In fact all but three of the top ten rushing teams can't really pass to save their lives, and that includes West Virginia who ranks 115th despite an attempt to balance the offense this season.

Now defense, starting with the overall figures:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   TCU                          5-1   196.6 [  1]   30.1 [  2]  166.5 [ 17]
2.   Wake Forest                  3-1   208.6 [  2]   23.1 [  1]  185.5 [ 31]
3.   Southern Cal                 3-1   209.6 [  3]   55.1 [  3]  154.5 [ 11]
4.   South Carolina               4-2   210.9 [  4]   71.2 [ 11]  139.7 [  4]
5.   Auburn                       4-2   253.1 [  5]   85.9 [ 16]  167.2 [ 19]
6.   Boston College               4-1   253.6 [  6]   56.4 [  4]  197.1 [ 44]
7.   Tennessee                    2-3   263.2 [  7]  107.3 [ 25]  155.9 [ 12]
8.   Utah                         6-0   263.6 [  8]   63.1 [  8]  200.5 [ 47]
9.   Florida                      4-1   268.7 [  9]  105.8 [ 24]  162.9 [ 14]
10.  Pittsburgh                   4-1   269.2 [ 10]  112.9 [ 28]  156.2 [ 13]

TCU is currently tops in total defensive yardage, adjusted for their competition (which includes Oklahoma). Florida won games last year based on offense, but they aren't in the top ten in either offensive category but place 9th on defense. Southern Cal and Auburn both make the top 5, but no team ranks in the top ten in both categories, though USC and South Carolina come very close. Another surprise is Ohio State's absense. Last year the Buckeyes were easily #1, leading in both rushing and passing some weeks. They returned 9 starters on defense but aren't as effective this season.

Passing defense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   Ohio State                   5-1   269.8 [ 11]  144.0 [ 61]  125.8 [  1]
2.   Troy                         2-2   358.0 [ 61]  225.2 [113]  132.8 [  2]
3.   Arizona                      4-1   281.9 [ 14]  145.4 [ 64]  136.5 [  3]
4.   South Carolina               4-2   210.9 [  4]   71.2 [ 11]  139.7 [  4]
5.   Colorado                     3-2   313.6 [ 30]  169.3 [ 86]  144.2 [  5]
6.   New Mexico St                2-2   420.9 [107]  274.7 [119]  146.2 [  6]
7.   Louisiana-Lafayette          2-3   382.6 [ 81]  231.6 [114]  150.9 [  7]
8.   Washington St                1-5   410.8 [101]  259.3 [118]  151.4 [  8]
9.   Wyoming                      2-4   338.6 [ 45]  185.9 [ 99]  152.6 [  9]
10.  Oregon St                    2-3   277.4 [ 13]  124.1 [ 43]  153.3 [ 10]

It's not because they can't defend the pass. Once again, the Buckeyes are #1 against the pass, just as they finished the 2007 season. Overall they rank 11th, so it's their (relative) inability to stop the run that's hurting them this year defensively. Several teams on this list have a similar problem, to an even greater degree: Troy, New Mexico State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Washington State rank #2, 6, 7, and 8 against the pass but just 113th, 119th, 114th, and 118th against the run. Often what this means is that teams find it so easy to run against the defense that they don't even need to resort to pass plays that could result in turnovers. Arizona, however, has a profile similar to Ohio State's: they are great against the pass, and simply average against the run.

Another team of note on the list is Oregon State. Last year the Beavers were #1 against the run. All seven starters up front on their defense had to be replaced, and they've fallen from #1 to #43 so far. But their secondary has picked up the slack and ranks in the top ten against the pass.

Rushing defense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   Wake Forest                  3-1   208.6 [  2]   23.1 [  1]  185.5 [ 31]
2.   TCU                          5-1   196.6 [  1]   30.1 [  2]  166.5 [ 17]
3.   Southern Cal                 3-1   209.6 [  3]   55.1 [  3]  154.5 [ 11]
4.   Boston College               4-1   253.6 [  6]   56.4 [  4]  197.1 [ 44]
5.   Alabama                      6-0   276.1 [ 12]   57.3 [  5]  218.8 [ 72]
6.   Georgia                      4-1   294.8 [ 19]   59.8 [  6]  234.9 [ 89]
7.   Missouri                     5-0   316.9 [ 33]   60.4 [  7]  256.4 [103]
8.   Utah                         6-0   263.6 [  8]   63.1 [  8]  200.5 [ 47]
9.   Texas                        5-0   293.8 [ 18]   65.7 [  9]  228.1 [ 85]
10.  Duke                         3-2   344.0 [ 54]   66.8 [ 10]  277.1 [116]

Wake Forest is the big run-stopper this year. Southern Cal has had an iron run defense for several years now. Boston College is winning games with defense this season instead of through the air, and while Missouri's defense has been questioned, their rushing defense is no slouch. The way to attack the Tigers is definitely through the air. Likewise Duke, who has been sturdy against the run but is in the bottom five against the pass. Texas and Georgia both are relatively weak in the secondary this season.

Overall yardage differential:

Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   Texas Tech                   5-0   279.0    1   23
2.   Southern Cal                 3-1   268.5    9    3
3.   Missouri                     5-0   258.6    2   33
4.   Oklahoma                     5-0   255.0    4   20
5.   Oregon St                    2-3   201.0    8   13
6.   TCU                          5-1   179.6   56    1
7.   Georgia                      4-1   176.5   12   19
8.   Illinois                     3-2   165.3   11   27
9.   Texas                        5-0   152.1   18   18
10.  Utah                         6-0   151.7   27    8

These teams have outgained their opposition the most (adjusted for the opposition, of course). These are the teams with the best balance of strong offenses and defenses that don't yield a lot of yards. Note that return yards are not included in either category.

Only USC has a top ten offense and defense. But five other teams are in the top 25 in both categories. Texas Tech's defense is markedly improved this year; Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas, not surprisingly, are solid both on O and D overall. The surprise may be Oregon State, who has the #8 offense and #13 defense. Though only 2-3, they of course conquered USC and almost beat Utah. Another team that might be destined for an improved record is Illinois.

Best Passing Offense - Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech, led by quarterback Graham Harrell in a pass-heavy system, ranks as the top-gaining passing offense in college football when adjusted for opponents' pass defenses.

As with the rushing offense total, the sheer amount of passing attempts a team averages has a lot to do with its total passing yardage output. We can see that the two top teams—who are ahead of the rest of the field by almost 100 yards per game—have the #118 and #120 ranked rushing attack. Clearly the top teams got there not only from effectiveness but also from the design of their offense.

Unlike the rushing list, many of the top passing teams didn't finish with very good records. Without a rushing game to control the clock, or with a defense that gets tired from being on the field a lot, a passing-oriented offense doesn't guarantee success. New Mexico State, Washington State, Nebraska, Arizona, Kansas State, North Texas, and Rice all finished with losing records. Still, Hawaii, Tulsa, Boston College, Missouri, BYU, Boise State, Kansas, and Tennessee all finished with 10 or more wins, compared to only six of the top 25 rushing teams. But only two of the top rushing teams had losing records.

Here are the top 25 teams in average rushing yards, with their unadjusted rank, passing rank, and principal ground gainer(s) [click here for full list]:

#    Team                 rec   yds.  raw  rush rnk starting quarterback
1.   Texas Tech           9-4   460.9   1   118     Graham Harrell
2.   Hawaii              12-1   449.6   2   120     Colt Brennan
3.   Tulsa               10-4   360.1   3    63     Paul Smith
4.   New Mexico St        4-9   358.6   5   117     Chase Holbrook
5.   Louisville           6-6   350.1   4    73     Brian Brohm
6.   Boston College      11-3   339.6   6   101     Matt Ryan
7.   Washington St        5-7   325.4   8    67     Alex Brink
8.   Nebraska             5-7   325.4   7    47     Sam Keller
9.   Missouri            12-2   323.5   9    32     Chase Daniel
10.  Brigham Young       11-2   322.7  14    58     Max Hall
11.  Arizona              5-7   318.9  10    94     Willie Tuitama
12.  Northwestern         6-6   307.4  11    92     CJ Bacher
13.  Cincinnati          10-3   293.2  20    82     Ben Mauk
14.  Kansas St            5-7   292.7  21    81     Josh Freeman
15.  Purdue               8-5   291.3  12    86     Curtis Painter
16.  Boise St            10-3   290.2  23    66     Taylor Tharp
17.  North Texas          2-10  288.6  18   107     Giovanni Vizza
18.  Memphis              7-6   288.6  13    96     Martin Hankins
19.  Rice                 3-9   287.8  15   113     Chase Clement
20.  Kentucky             8-5   287.1  19    48     Andre Woodson
21.  Kansas              12-1   284.7  17    41     Todd Reesing
22.  Tennessee           10-4   279.3  35    54     Eric Ainge
23.  Florida Atlantic     8-5   278.6  16   100     Rusty Smith
24.  Florida              9-4   274.2  38    17     Tim Tebow
25.  South Carolina       6-6   274.1  37    89     C. Smelley, B. Mitchell

It's also hard to tell whether a team's passing success is due to the quarterback or a good corps of receivers. Texas Tech and Hawaii both have multiple receivers in the top 100, Tech with two and Hawaii with four. How much did having Michael Crabtree to throw to improve Harrell's stats? It's hard to say; his completion percentage went up 5 points from last season and he had 10 more touchdowns. A year's improvement or a great receiver joins the team? Or does Crabtree look better than he is because he has Harrell throwing to him? Without changing players in and out, the numbers alone can't tell the whole story.

Navy Midshipmen lead nation in rushing for 2007

Navy finishes the year with the top rushing average—adjusted for opposition—in 2007. They are far and away the #1 team, well ahead of #2 West Virginia.

The Midshipmen rank #1 based mostly on the fact that they almost never pass, ranking last in passing yards. #3 Air Force ranks second-to-last in passing yards as well. So it's often hard to judge which team is really the best rushing team and which simply has a one-dimensional offense.

The #2 and #4 teams don't pass much either; West Virginia can, but has little reason to most of the time, while Arkansas is definitely better off running with McFadden and Jones.

It isn't until we get to #5 that we see a team, Oregon, that has some semblance of balance on offense but ranks high on the rushing chart. Oklahoma State, Southern Cal, LSU, Texas, and Florida are all examples of teams that have undeniably strong running attacks where the yardage isn't the partly the result of relying solely on the run.

Here are the top 25 teams in average rushing yards, with their unadjusted rank, passing rank, and principal ground gainer(s) [click here for full list]:

#    Team                 rec   yds.  raw pass rnk rushers in top 100
1.   Navy                 8-5   340.3   1   120    Kaheaku-Enhada, Kettani
2.   West Virginia       11-2   304.1   3   114    White, Slaton
3.   Air Force            9-4   298.1   2   119    Hall, Ollis
4.   Arkansas             8-5   291.8   4   109    McFadden(#4), Jones
5.   Oregon               9-4   289.7   6    59    Stewart(#7)
6.   Illinois             9-4   281.2   5   108    Mendenhall(#8)
7.   Oklahoma St          7-6   250.7   8    40    Savage, Robinson
8.   Washington           4-9   250.7  18    86    Rankin, Locker
9.   Louisiana-Lafayette  3-9   246.2   7   117    Desormeaux, Fenroy
10.  Southern Cal        11-2   225.6  27    45    Washington, Johnson
11.  LSU                 12-2   222.2  11    52    Hester
12.  Texas A&M            7-6   218.6  13    88    McGee
13.  Oregon St            9-4   217.5  40    98    Bernard
14.  Michigan St          7-6   214.6  25    65    Ringer, Caulcrick
15.  Texas               10-3   213.9  17    35    Charles (#10)
16.  Wisconsin            9-4   212.8  21    80    Hill
17.  Florida              9-4   209.8  23    24    Harvin, Tebow
18.  Central Florida     10-4   208.9   9   111    Smith(#1)
19.  Penn State           9-4   207.0  29    70    Kinlaw
20.  California           7-6   206.7  45    51    Forsett
21.  Ohio State          11-2   206.4  28    97    Wells
22.  South Florida        9-4   206.3  32    54    Grothe
23.  Western Kentucky     7-5   202.5  6*   118    Hayden
24.  Houston              8-5   201.5  10    41    Alridge
25.  Fresno St            9-4   199.1  14    73    Mathews, Miller

For most teams a strong running attack—even at the expense of passing—pays dividends, as most of these teams have winning records. But for Louisiana-Lafayette, their ground game doesn't make up for lack of passing ability. Washington, too, found itself in a bad situation, stuck in a league full of teams with great rushing defenses and themselves having a mediocre passing game.

Teams in the major conferences tend to rank higher when adjusted, while non-BCS teams fell. Central Florida, with the nation's leading rusher Kevin Smith, adjusted down to #18 from #9 due to their weaker schedule. Likewise Houston and Fresno State. Western Kentucky, a provisional Division I-A team, would have ranked 6th if counted this year; their schedule was weak enough to drop them to #23, and almost 50 yards less than their raw average.

It's also interesting that half of the top ten gainers did not see their team in the top 25; sometimes a runner makes the top ten because he gets nearly all of his team's carries, which makes the accomplishment of Darren McFadden all the more impressive, as he was in the top five while sharing carries with another top 50 runner.

Ohio State leads final defensive stats, both scoring and yardage

The Ohio State Buckeyes, despite their performance in their loss to LSU in the BCS championship game, end the 2007 college football season with the #1 defense in the country.

Ohio State finishes #1 in scoring defense, total yards allowed, and passing defense, and #2 in rushing defense. The Buckeyes held 7 of their 13 opponents to fewer than 10 points and gave up two touchdowns or fewer in 11 games. In fact, even the LSU game wasn't a terrible defensive performance; many of LSU's points were set up by mistakes on offense or special teams, and the Tigers' total yardage was not excessive.

Auburn is second when adjusted for their schedule (6th without adjusting), followed by USC, Virginia Tech, Kansas. Teams that rank better when adjusted include Michigan, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Missouri. Iowa ranks 16th despite finishing 6-6 as their offense ranks in the bottom 10 in some measures.

Here are the top 25 teams in scoring defense (click here for full list):

#   Team                         rec   adj. ave  raw rank
1.  Ohio State                  11-2    10.64       1
2.  Auburn                       9-4    12.98       6
3.  Southern Cal                11-2    13.10       2
4.  Virginia Tech               11-3    14.92       3
5.  Kansas                      12-1    15.44       4
6.  West Virginia               11-2    15.91       8
7.  Michigan                     9-4    16.37      23
8.  Oklahoma                    11-3    16.48      19
9.  Georgia                     11-2    16.88      18
10. Utah                         9-4    17.15       5
11. Missouri                    12-2    17.93      37
12. LSU                         12-2    18.37      17
13. UCLA                         6-7    18.62      29
14. Oregon St                    9-4    18.98      33
15. Cincinnati                  10-3    19.17      13
16. Iowa                         6-6    19.22      12
17. Penn State                   9-4    19.34       7
18. Connecticut                  9-4    19.61      14
19. South Carolina               6-6    19.80      39
20. Arizona St                  10-3    19.85      31
21. Clemson                      9-4    19.89      10
22. Brigham Young               11-2    20.00       9
23. Oregon                       9-4    20.09      40
24. TCU                          8-5    20.35      10
25. Florida St                   7-6    20.55      34

The Buckeyes are on top in yardage defense, followed by USC, who is also in the top ten in both defensive categories.

Notice all the 5-7 teams that make the list. Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Wyoming, and Arizona all have offense or special teams to blame for not finishing with a winning record; though since these numbers are adjusted for schedule, Arizona and Vanderbilt in particular just played tough teams, holding them well below average for the most part in yardage.

The top 25 teams in total yardage defense (click here for full list)

#    Team                         rec  total yds.  raw rank
1.   Ohio State                  11-2   215.6         1
2.   Southern Cal                11-2   240.7         2
3.   Oregon St                    9-4   259.8         8
4.   Auburn                       9-4   278.5         6
5.   Brigham Young               11-2   292.6        10
6.   LSU                         12-2   297.8         3
7.   Georgia                     11-2   298.8        14       
8.   Pittsburgh                   5-7   298.9         5
9.   Virginia Tech               11-3   299.1         4
10.  UCLA                         6-7   299.9        29
11.  Oklahoma                    11-3   302.8        26
12.  TCU                          8-5   305.1        15
13.  Arizona St                  10-3   305.8        30
14.  West Virginia               11-2   306.1         7
15.  Michigan                     9-4   307.6        24
16.  Kansas                      12-1   312.9        12
17.  Utah                         9-4   314.9        18
18.  New Mexico                   9-4   316.6        13
19.  Clemson                      9-4   318.2         9
20.  Mississippi St               8-5   320.6        21
21.  Vanderbilt                   5-7   328.1        16
22.  Wyoming                      5-7   329.0        22
23.  Arizona                      5-7   334.1        53
24.  California                   7-6   336.0        58
25.  Missouri                    12-2   336.4        59

The Buckeyes also can claim the best passing defense. Despite LSU's success on January 7th, they only passed for 174 yards on Ohio State, much lower than their average.

The top ten passing defenses, based on adjusted yards (click here for full list)

#    Team                         rec   yards
1.   Ohio State                  11-2   215.6
2.   Texas Tech                   9-4   345.5
3.   Auburn                       9-4   278.5
4.   Notre Dame                   3-9   338.1
5.   Michigan                     9-4   307.6
6.   West Virginia               11-2   306.1
7.   Mississippi St               8-5   320.6
8.   Pittsburgh                   5-7   298.9
9.   Southern Cal                11-2   240.7
10.  Clemson                      9-4   318.2

Note Texas Tech, who has the #1 passing offense, is 2nd in passing defense. Notre Dame, despite all their woes this year, was very good against the pass. Michigan, too, was burned early in the year by Appalachian State and Oregon's mobile quarterbacks, but improved over the year and did well against Illinois and Florida. West Virginia was among last year's worst passing defenses, but made the top ten this season.

For rushing defense, the Buckeyes have to settle for #2. They were number one going into the bowl games, but Oregon State held Maryland to 19 yards to finish #1 for the season.

Top ten rushing defenses (click here for full list)

#    Team                         rec   yards
1.   Oregon St                    9-4   45.1
2.   Ohio State                  11-2   51.0
3.   Southern Cal                11-2   54.2
4.   UCLA                         6-7   84.0
5.   Brigham Young               11-2   89.1
6.   Boston College              11-3   89.5
7.   Arizona St                  10-3   90.5
8.   Penn State                   9-4   91.9
9.   TCU                          8-5   92.9
10.  Texas                       10-3   94.8

Southern Cal's rushing defense was roughly comparable to the top two, then it's a wide gap to the rest of the top ten.

Best Scoring Offense - Florida; Most Total Offense - Texas Tech

The Florida Gators end the year with the best scoring offense, adjusted for the defense of their opponents, for the 2007 season as a whole. With Tim Tebow leading the way, scoring 55 TDs through the air and on the ground, Florida scored 59 points against three opponents and over 40 against five others. The Gators are third in raw scoring average, but adjusted for their SEC-quality schedule, they rank first.

Big 12 heavyweights Missouri and Oklahoma finish second and third, with LSU and West Virginia rounding out the top 5. Offensive powers Oregon and Kansas are sixth and seventh, with South Florida eighth. Run-based Arkansas is ninth, and pass-happy Texas Tech finished tenth.

The Hawai'i Warriors, who average the most points, finish only 23rd when adjusted for schedule. Boise State also falls quite a bit, from 4th to 20th, while Nebraska, Clemson, Tennessee, and Arizona State rank higher than their raw averages.

The top 25 teams in college football by adjusted scoring offense for 2007:

                                          adj.     unadj.
#   team                       record    offense   rank
1.  Florida                      9-4      47.35     3
2.  Missouri                    12-2      43.59     8
3.  Oklahoma                    11-3      43.02     5
4.  LSU                         12-2      42.95     11
5.  West Virginia               11-2      42.75     9
6.  Oregon                       9-4      42.70     12
7.  Kansas                      12-1      39.99     2
8.  South Florida                9-4      39.87     21
9.  Arkansas                     8-5      39.22     13
10. Texas Tech                   9-4      38.86     7
11. Kentucky                     8-5      38.68     15
12. Texas                       10-3      37.83     14
13. Navy                         8-5      37.65     10
14. Oklahoma St                  7-6      37.33     22
15. Cincinnati                  10-3      37.10     16
16. Tulsa                       10-4      37.04     6
17. Nebraska                     5-7      36.98     28
18. Clemson                      9-4      36.55     29
19. Louisville                   6-6      36.49     18
20. Boise St                    10-3      36.44     4
21. Tennessee                   10-4      36.13     36
22. Kansas St                    5-7      36.10     18
23. Hawaii                      12-1      35.94     1
24. Michigan St                  7-6      35.87     29
25. Arizona St                  10-3      35.32     37

The top offenses in yardage production contain many of the same names, but many others that don't show up on the scoring offense list. Texas Tech is #1 due to their top-ranked passing attack, while top scoring offense Florida finishes ninth in yardage.

The top 25 offenses in total yards (rushing and passing) adjusted for opposition for the 2007 season.

                                        adj.   unadj.
#   team                         rec   yards   rank
1.  Texas Tech                   9-4   519.6    2
2.  Oregon                       9-4   514.8    10
3.  Tulsa                       10-4   514.7    1
4.  Missouri                    12-2   508.6    5
5.  Oklahoma St                  7-6   500.9    7
6.  Hawaii                      12-1   500.1    3
7.  Nebraska                     5-7   494.6    9
8.  Louisville                   6-6   490.0    6
9.  Florida                      9-4   484.1    14
10. Brigham Young               11-2   479.8    25
11. Texas                       10-3   477.0    13
12. Washington St                5-7   475.5    28
13. Southern Cal                11-2   464.7    29
14. Nevada                       6-7   462.9    11
15. Kansas                      12-1   461.5    8
16. West Virginia               11-2   459.3    15
17. Arkansas                     8-5   458.9    17
18. LSU                         12-2   457.0    26
19. Kentucky                     8-5   454.2    24
20. Oklahoma                    11-3   450.2    19
21. Washington                   4-9   449.1    60
22. Illinois                     9-4   448.7    34
23. Houston                      8-5   448.3    4
24. Boston College              11-3   445.0    33
25. California                   7-6   442.5    50

Other interesting teams include Washington at #21, despite being only 60th in raw yards. They have the 2nd toughest schedule according to Sagarin; the tough defenses they faced in the Pac-10, plus Ohio State, show their offense to be much better than their raw numbers would suggest. Houston on the other hand had a much easier schedule and is only 23rd rather than 4th.

So which teams have the worst offense? Well here is the bottom 10 by scoring, and by yardage:

                                         adj.   
#    team                      record   offense 
111. Louisiana Tech              5-7    17.53   
112. Iowa                        6-6    17.52 
113. Tulane                      4-8    17.19 
114. Western Kentucky            7-5    16.54 
115. Miami OH                    6-7    15.98 
116. Army                        3-9    15.87 
117. San Jose St                 5-7    15.63 
118. Florida Int'l               1-11   14.82 
119. Temple                      4-8    12.94 
120. Northern Illinois           2-10   12.84 

                                        adj.
#    team                        rec   yards
111. Syracuse                    2-10  302.1
112. Iowa                        6-6   293.0
113. Utah St                     2-10  290.8
114. Northern Illinois           2-10  286.9
115. Akron                       4-8   284.9
116. Duke                        1-11  284.7
117. Florida Int'l               1-11  266.3
118. Notre Dame                  3-9   257.0
119. Temple                      4-8   253.6
120. Army                        3-9   245.6

Several teams show up in both measures. Iowa finished 6-6 due to a good defense but pathetic offense that ranked #112 in both scoring and yardage. Army couldn't score much and couldn't gain yardage to save its life, finishing last at #120, with both rushing and passing stats in the bottom ten. Florida International went 1-11 for a several reasons—finishing 118th in scoring and 117th in yardage were two of them. Temple might be the worst of all on offense, 119th in both scoring and yardage measures.

Notre Dame scored more than their yardage would indicate, finishing #102, but some of that is due to their defense. They finished in the bottom 20 in rushing and passing, and were #118 overall. Without adjusting for their tough schedule, they finished dead last in the nation. Irish fans can be consoled by the knowledge that there's nowhere to go but up...!

Yardage Stats - end of regular season (thru 12/1/2007)

USC ends the year well in front of every one else in terms of yards gained vs. yards allowed, adjusted for who they played. BYU, which was #1 or #2 all year, finishes second, while LSU slips to sixth, Oregon falls to tenth, and West Virginia falls to 11th.

Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition): 
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   Southern Cal                10-2   223.0   20    2
2.   Brigham Young               10-2   198.5    9    6
3.   Texas Tech                   8-4   186.4    1   29
4.   Missouri                    11-2   178.1    3   27
5.   Ohio State                  11-1   165.6   67    1
6.   LSU                         11-2   164.1   18    7
7.   Kansas                      11-1   160.5   14   14
8.   Oklahoma                    11-2   159.6   23    5
9.   Hawaii                      12-0   158.2    2   40
10.  Oregon                       8-4   156.8    5   39

On offense, the two maddest passing teams Texas Tech and Hawaii finish #1 and #2 in total offense. With #7 passer Missouri virtually tied with Hawaii.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                   8-4   527.0 [  1]   57.9 [118]  469.1 [  1]
2.   Hawaii                      12-0   516.9 [  2]   49.9 [120]  467.0 [  2]
3.   Missouri                    11-2   516.9 [  3]  176.9 [ 41]  340.0 [  7]
4.   Tulsa                        9-4   514.6 [  4]  152.3 [ 64]  362.2 [  4]
5.   Oregon                       8-4   509.6 [  5]  278.8 [  6]  230.8 [ 57]
6.   Oklahoma St                  6-6   503.6 [  6]  256.0 [  7]  247.5 [ 40]
7.   Nebraska                     5-7   498.9 [  7]  169.0 [ 49]  329.8 [  9]
8.   Louisville                   6-6   494.6 [  8]  143.7 [ 71]  350.8 [  5]
9.   Brigham Young               10-2   489.4 [  9]  157.3 [ 59]  332.0 [  8]
10.  Florida                      9-3   487.2 [ 10]  209.7 [ 18]  277.4 [ 22]

In fact, the majority of the top ten offenses are made up of teams with huge passing attacks, with Tulsa, Nebraska, Louisville, and BYU also placing high in both charts. But the regular-season award for best passing team, which has switched back and forth every week for over a month, goes to Texas Tech. They were idle last week, but Hawaii played and had "only" 442 yards, bringing their adjusted average down a couple yards below Tech's.

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                   8-4   527.0 [  1]   57.9 [118]  469.1 [  1]
2.   Hawaii                      12-0   516.9 [  2]   49.9 [120]  467.0 [  2]
3.   New Mexico St                4-9   432.0 [ 34]   68.1 [117]  363.8 [  3]
4.   Tulsa                        9-4   514.6 [  4]  152.3 [ 64]  362.2 [  4]
5.   Louisville                   6-6   494.6 [  8]  143.7 [ 71]  350.8 [  5]
6.   Boston College              10-3   459.5 [ 16]  113.0 [ 97]  346.4 [  6]
7.   Missouri                    11-2   516.9 [  3]  176.9 [ 41]  340.0 [  7]
8.   Brigham Young               10-2   489.4 [  9]  157.3 [ 59]  332.0 [  8]
9.   Nebraska                     5-7   498.9 [  7]  169.0 [ 49]  329.8 [  9]
10.  Washington St                5-7   475.6 [ 12]  146.7 [ 68]  328.9 [ 10]

And on the rushing chart, Navy dominates as they have most of the year, with Arkansas moving back into #2. West Virginia falls to third following a dismal 104 yards vs. Pittsburgh.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                         8-4   423.7 [ 40]  341.6 [  1]   82.1 [120]
2.   Arkansas                     8-4   464.6 [ 15]  301.3 [  2]  163.2 [108]
3.   West Virginia               10-2   446.4 [ 24]  298.6 [  3]  147.7 [115]
4.   Air Force                    9-3   437.1 [ 29]  291.9 [  4]  145.1 [119]
5.   Illinois                     9-3   434.3 [ 33]  284.8 [  5]  149.4 [114]
6.   Oregon                       8-4   509.6 [  5]  278.8 [  6]  230.8 [ 57]
7.   Oklahoma St                  6-6   503.6 [  6]  256.0 [  7]  247.5 [ 40]
8.   Washington                   4-9   450.2 [ 19]  249.4 [  8]  200.8 [ 84]
9.   Louisiana-Lafayette          3-9   394.8 [ 57]  248.4 [  9]  146.4 [118]
10.  LSU                         11-2   456.3 [ 18]  222.8 [ 10]  233.5 [ 49]

On defense: The Ohio State Buckeyes finish the year as the best defense in the country in terms of yards yielded, and is #1 both in rush and pass defense. USC is second overall and surprisingly, another Pac-10 team, Oregon State is third, almost solely for their rushing defense.

Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  11-1   214.0 [  1]   46.4 [  1]  167.6 [  1]
2.   Southern Cal                10-2   227.0 [  2]   58.5 [  3]  168.4 [  2]
3.   Oregon St                    8-4   261.2 [  3]   49.6 [  2]  211.6 [ 38]
4.   Auburn                       8-4   274.9 [  4]   97.7 [ 12]  177.1 [  4]
5.   Oklahoma                    11-2   287.0 [  5]   99.7 [ 13]  187.2 [ 11]
6.   Brigham Young               10-2   290.9 [  6]   87.8 [  6]  203.1 [ 26]
7.   LSU                         11-2   292.2 [  7]  100.9 [ 15]  191.2 [ 14]
8.   Pittsburgh                   5-7   297.0 [  8]  111.0 [ 23]  186.0 [ 10]
9.   Virginia Tech               11-2   299.8 [  9]  108.2 [ 19]  191.5 [ 16]
10.  West Virginia               10-2   299.8 [ 10]  117.5 [ 26]  182.3 [  7]

The top two teams in total defense finish the season tops in passing defense as well. Texas Tech has the #1 pass offense and the #3 pass defense—is there a correlation? Is it from the coaches knowing how to defense the pass since they know how to implement it? Or does the pass defense get such a good workout against the offense that their experience pays off? Or do other teams just run more on them, to rest the defense, run time off the clock to slow the game down, or stop Tech's momentum? Or perhaps it's just a fluke—maybe they just have a good pass defense, no explanation needed.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  11-1   214.0 [  1]   46.4 [  1]  167.6 [  1]
2.   Southern Cal                10-2   227.0 [  2]   58.5 [  3]  168.4 [  2]
3.   Texas Tech                   8-4   340.6 [ 29]  170.2 [ 73]  170.4 [  3]
4.   Auburn                       8-4   274.9 [  4]   97.7 [ 12]  177.1 [  4]
5.   Notre Dame                   3-9   339.8 [ 28]  160.8 [ 68]  178.9 [  5]
6.   Clemson                      9-3   305.1 [ 12]  123.7 [ 34]  181.4 [  6]
7.   West Virginia               10-2   299.8 [ 10]  117.5 [ 26]  182.3 [  7]
8.   UNLV                         2-10  361.1 [ 42]  178.0 [ 80]  183.1 [  8]
9.   Utah                         8-4   306.1 [ 15]  121.2 [ 30]  184.8 [  9]
10.  Pittsburgh                   5-7   297.0 [  8]  111.0 [ 23]  186.0 [ 10]

Note that Notre Dame finishes the year 5th best in passing defense. Their rushing defense is only 67th, though. Ohio State has the best run defense, followed closely by Oregon State, with Southern Cal a distant third.

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  11-1   214.0 [  1]   46.4 [  1]  167.6 [  1]
2.   Oregon St                    8-4   261.2 [  3]   49.6 [  2]  211.6 [ 38]
3.   Southern Cal                10-2   227.0 [  2]   58.5 [  3]  168.4 [  2]
4.   Arizona St                  10-2   300.0 [ 11]   80.7 [  4]  219.2 [ 50]
5.   Boston College              10-3   390.3 [ 68]   83.7 [  5]  306.6 [119]
6.   Brigham Young               10-2   290.9 [  6]   87.8 [  6]  203.1 [ 26]
7.   Penn State                   8-4   344.5 [ 32]   88.7 [  7]  255.7 [ 99]
8.   Cincinnati                   9-3   377.1 [ 56]   89.9 [  8]  287.1 [114]
9.   Florida                      9-3   342.1 [ 30]   90.3 [  9]  251.7 [ 94]
10.  UCLA                         6-6   310.7 [ 18]   91.0 [ 10]  219.7 [ 51]

We won't get to see the #1 and #2 defenses meet in the Rose Bowl, but we will have #1 defense Ohio State vs. #7 LSU in the national championship game. Instead in the Rose Bowl, #3 rushing defense USC will face the #5 rushing offense, Illinois.

Yardage Stats - week 13 (through 11/24/07)

A change at the top of the total yardage differential chart. LSU falls to #3, and Southern Cal pushes its way to #1; the Brigham Young Cougars remain in 2nd place, though they are the only team that ranks in the top ten in offense and defense.

Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition): 
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   Southern Cal                 9-2   213.5   26    2
2.   Brigham Young                9-2   206.3    9    6
3.   LSU                         10-2   189.0   14    5
4.   Texas Tech                   8-4   187.7    1   27
5.   Missouri                    11-1   175.5    2   36
6.   Oregon                       8-3   172.3    5   30
7.   West Virginia               10-1   165.8   17    8
8.   Ohio State                  11-1   165.0   69    1
9.   Oklahoma                    10-2   164.1   20    7
10.  Hawaii                      11-0   159.6    3   40

On offense, Texas Tech takes over the #1 spot as Dennis-Dixon-less Oregon falls to #5 after getting shutout by UCLA.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                   8-4   527.3 [  1]   58.4 [118]  468.8 [  2]
2.   Missouri                    11-1   521.7 [  2]  173.2 [ 44]  348.4 [  7]
3.   Hawaii                      11-0   518.6 [  3]   47.2 [120]  471.3 [  1]
4.   Tulsa                        9-3   515.3 [  4]  159.6 [ 57]  355.6 [  6]
5.   Oregon                       8-3   513.6 [  5]  276.4 [  6]  237.1 [ 46]
6.   Oklahoma St                  6-6   504.6 [  6]  256.7 [  7]  247.9 [ 40]
7.   Nebraska                     5-7   498.0 [  7]  167.3 [ 50]  330.7 [  9]
8.   Louisville                   5-6   493.1 [  8]  134.0 [ 82]  359.0 [  4]
9.   Brigham Young                9-2   492.9 [  9]  151.9 [ 67]  340.9 [  8]
10.  Florida                      9-3   489.5 [ 10]  210.9 [ 15]  278.6 [ 21]

Missouri and Hawaii jump from 5th and 6th into 2nd and 3rd after big games against tough foes.

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Hawaii                      11-0   518.6 [  3]   47.2 [120]  471.3 [  1]
2.   Texas Tech                   8-4   527.3 [  1]   58.4 [118]  468.8 [  2]
3.   New Mexico St                4-8   436.8 [ 32]   70.7 [117]  366.0 [  3]
4.   Louisville                   5-6   493.1 [  8]  134.0 [ 82]  359.0 [  4]
5.   Boston College              10-2   465.5 [ 16]  109.5 [100]  355.9 [  5]
6.   Tulsa                        9-3   515.3 [  4]  159.6 [ 57]  355.6 [  6]
7.   Missouri                    11-1   521.7 [  2]  173.2 [ 44]  348.4 [  7]
8.   Brigham Young                9-2   492.9 [  9]  151.9 [ 67]  340.9 [  8]
9.   Nebraska                     5-7   498.0 [  7]  167.3 [ 50]  330.7 [  9]
10.  Washington St                5-7   475.1 [ 11]  147.5 [ 68]  327.6 [ 10]

The back-and-forth between Texas Tech and Hawaii continues on the passing chart; for the 4th week or so, they trade spots. Colt Brennan's 495 yards against Boise State nudges the Warriors ahead of Graham Harrell and Tech, idle this week.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                         7-4  442.4 [ 28]  354.5 [  1]   87.9 [120]
2.   West Virginia               10-1  465.3 [ 17]  314.6 [  2]  150.6 [114]
3.   Arkansas                     8-4  466.4 [ 15]  302.3 [  3]  164.0 [109]
4.   Air Force                    9-3  435.0 [ 33]  291.3 [  4]  143.6 [119]
5.   Illinois                     9-3  433.9 [ 34]  284.3 [  5]  149.5 [115]
6.   Oregon                       8-3  513.6 [  5]  276.4 [  6]  237.1 [ 46]
7.   Oklahoma St                  6-6  504.6 [  6]  256.7 [  7]  247.9 [ 40]
8.   Washington                   4-8  451.0 [ 21]  247.8 [  8]  203.1 [ 81]
9.   Louisiana-Lafayette          3-9  394.5 [ 59]  247.1 [  9]  147.4 [117]
10.  LSU                         10-2  468.8 [ 14]  232.6 [ 10]  236.1 [ 47]

Even 517 yards of rushing offense against Connecticut couldn't overcome Navy's lead on the rushing chart for West Virginia. Arkansas jumps from 5th up to 3rd.

Now for defense:

Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  11-1   214.8 [  1]   47.2 [  2]  167.6 [  2]
2.   Southern Cal                 9-2   231.3 [  2]   65.5 [  3]  165.7 [  1]
3.   Oregon St                    7-4   265.2 [  3]   46.3 [  1]  218.8 [ 49]
4.   Auburn                       8-4   272.5 [  4]   95.9 [ 14]  176.5 [  4]
5.   LSU                         10-2   279.7 [  5]   90.3 [ 11]  189.3 [ 11]
6.   Brigham Young                9-2   286.6 [  6]   86.4 [  7]  200.1 [ 22]
7.   Oklahoma                    10-2   289.6 [  7]   95.1 [ 13]  194.5 [ 16]
8.   West Virginia               10-1   299.5 [  8]  112.6 [ 21]  186.8 [  9]
9.   Arizona St                   9-2   302.5 [  9]   79.6 [  4]  222.8 [ 55]
10.  Clemson                      9-3   304.8 [ 10]  124.4 [ 34]  180.3 [  6]

Not much change on the total defense chart; Ohio State is still #1, and #2 in both measures, and USC is 2nd, at 3rd in rushing and 1st against the pass. LSU falls a couple spots, somewhat unfairly due to extra overtime yardage surrendered to Arkansas.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Southern Cal                 9-2   231.3 [  2]   65.5 [  3]  165.7 [  1]
2.   Ohio State                  11-1   214.8 [  1]   47.2 [  2]  167.6 [  2]
3.   Texas Tech                   8-4   339.5 [ 27]  169.9 [ 73]  169.6 [  3]
4.   Auburn                       8-4   272.5 [  4]   95.9 [ 14]  176.5 [  4]
5.   Notre Dame                   3-9   338.3 [ 26]  160.2 [ 68]  178.1 [  5]
6.   Clemson                      9-3   304.8 [ 10]  124.4 [ 34]  180.3 [  6]
7.   UNLV                         2-10  362.4 [ 43]  178.5 [ 81]  183.8 [  7]
8.   Utah                         8-4   307.2 [ 16]  122.1 [ 29]  185.0 [  8]
9.   West Virginia               10-1   299.5 [  8]  112.6 [ 21]  186.8 [  9]
10.  Pittsburgh                   4-7   313.8 [ 18]  125.5 [ 36]  188.3 [ 10]

Notre Dame's pass defense unit continues to be the bright spot of their season; they now rank in the top five for the first time (plus, their total offense is only 2nd-to-last instead of last this week).

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon St                    7-4   265.2 [  3]   46.3 [  1]  218.8 [ 49]
2.   Ohio State                  11-1   214.8 [  1]   47.2 [  2]  167.6 [  2]
3.   Southern Cal                 9-2   231.3 [  2]   65.5 [  3]  165.7 [  1]
4.   Arizona St                   9-2   302.5 [  9]   79.6 [  4]  222.8 [ 55]
5.   Boston College              10-2   385.7 [ 65]   82.8 [  5]  302.9 [119]
6.   UCLA                         6-5   304.8 [ 11]   83.9 [  6]  220.9 [ 53]
7.   Brigham Young                9-2   286.6 [  6]   86.4 [  7]  200.1 [ 22]
8.   Penn State                   8-4   344.5 [ 33]   88.7 [  8]  255.8 [ 99]
9.   Cincinnati                   9-3   376.5 [ 55]   89.5 [  9]  286.9 [113]
10.  Florida                      9-3   341.3 [ 29]   89.7 [ 10]  251.5 [ 95]

UCLA's performance against Oregon shoots them up from 15th to 6th; unfortunately, this is more due to Dixon's absense than any improvement on the Bruins' part. The change in Oregon is causing some aberrations in comparative statistics between those who played them pre-Arizona and those who play them after. Thus, Michigan, USC, and Arizona State will look a little worse on defense than they should, while Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon State will appear a bit better.

Yardage Stats - week 12 (thru 11/17/2007)

Yet again, LSU and BYU remain the leaders in overall yardage difference.

Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition): 
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   LSU                         10-1   207.9   13    3
2.   Brigham Young                8-2   203.2    8    8
3.   Southern Cal                 8-2   191.1   37    2
4.   Texas Tech                   8-4   186.0    2   30
5.   Oregon                       8-2   181.8    1   41
6.   Kansas                      11-0   170.3   14   11
7.   West Virginia                9-1   167.2   21    6
8.   Ohio State                  11-1   165.1   68    1
9.   Arizona St                   9-1   160.2   23    7
10.  Missouri                    10-1   159.8    5   38

The only real changes at the top are Ohio State moving up slightly, and Oklahoma falling to #11.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon                       8-2   542.8 [  1]  292.2 [  4]  250.6 [ 39]
2.   Texas Tech                   8-4   526.5 [  2]   56.2 [118]  470.3 [  1]
3.   Tulsa                        8-3   517.7 [  3]  163.5 [ 54]  354.2 [  6]
4.   Oklahoma St                  6-5   516.4 [  4]  256.2 [  7]  260.2 [ 33]
5.   Missouri                    10-1   511.9 [  5]  168.7 [ 47]  343.1 [  8]
6.   Hawaii                      10-0   502.6 [  6]   39.2 [120]  463.3 [  2]
7.   Louisville                   5-6   501.3 [  7]  136.0 [ 81]  365.2 [  3]
8.   Brigham Young                8-2   492.4 [  8]  145.7 [ 71]  346.6 [  7]
9.   Florida                      8-3   484.8 [  9]  202.7 [ 24]  282.1 [ 17]
10.  Nebraska                     5-6   483.2 [ 10]  165.8 [ 51]  317.3 [ 11]

The offense top 10 is fairly similar to last week's as well. It will be interesting to see how much of their offensive output Oregon can maintain, but the Arizona loss didn't hurt their stats much.

111. Syracuse                     2-9   298.5 [111]   79.0 [115]  219.5 [ 66]
112. Utah St                      1-10  298.4 [112]  117.9 [ 94]  180.5 [ 97]
113. Northern Illinois            2-9   292.5 [113]  115.7 [ 96]  176.7 [102]
114. Akron                        4-7   291.3 [114]  104.7 [104]  186.5 [ 92]
115. Iowa                         6-6   288.6 [115]  123.4 [ 91]  165.1 [107]
116. Duke                         1-10  282.5 [116]   71.7 [116]  210.8 [ 76]
117. Temple                       4-7   267.3 [117]   56.1 [119]  211.1 [ 74]
118. Army                         3-8   263.9 [118]   98.3 [110]  165.6 [106]
119. Florida Int'l                0-10  258.0 [119]  121.7 [ 92]  136.2 [119]
120. Notre Dame                   2-9   246.4 [120]  101.3 [106]  145.0 [116]

Here's the bottom 10, once again. Notre Dame is still last despite the Duke win. Iowa slipped to 6-6 and might not be bowl-bound after all. Now the winning team with the worst offense belongs to #106 Wake Forest (7-4).

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                   8-4   526.5 [  2]   56.2 [118]  470.3 [  1]
2.   Hawaii                      10-0   502.6 [  6]   39.2 [120]  463.3 [  2]
3.   Louisville                   5-6   501.3 [  7]  136.0 [ 81]  365.2 [  3]
4.   New Mexico St                4-8   432.2 [ 32]   68.6 [117]  363.6 [  4]
5.   Boston College               9-2   466.5 [ 16]  108.8 [ 99]  357.6 [  5]
6.   Tulsa                        8-3   517.7 [  3]  163.5 [ 54]  354.2 [  6]
7.   Brigham Young                8-2   492.4 [  8]  145.7 [ 71]  346.6 [  7]
8.   Missouri                    10-1   511.9 [  5]  168.7 [ 47]  343.1 [  8]
9.   Arizona                      5-6   432.6 [ 31]  111.8 [ 98]  320.8 [  9]
10.  Washington St                4-7   470.8 [ 12]  152.4 [ 63]  318.4 [ 10]

Week after week, Hawaii and Texas Tech have traded bragging rights in passing offense. Last Saturday Tech took the lead back with their 420-yard performance against Oklahoma's 27th ranked pass defense.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                         7-4   436.9 [ 29]  350.9 [  1]   85.9 [120]
2.   West Virginia                9-1   449.3 [ 21]  294.2 [  2]  155.0 [114]
3.   Air Force                    9-3   437.1 [ 28]  292.6 [  3]  144.4 [117]
4.   Oregon                       8-2   542.8 [  1]  292.2 [  4]  250.6 [ 39]
5.   Arkansas                     7-4   449.5 [ 20]  286.4 [  5]  163.0 [108]
6.   Illinois                     9-3   431.3 [ 33]  281.7 [  6]  149.5 [115]
7.   Oklahoma St                  6-5   516.4 [  4]  256.2 [  7]  260.2 [ 33]
8.   Louisiana-Lafayette          3-8   397.9 [ 53]  253.6 [  8]  144.2 [118]
9.   Washington                   4-7   447.8 [ 22]  246.5 [  9]  201.2 [ 81]
10.  LSU                         10-1   470.8 [ 13]  235.1 [ 10]  235.7 [ 51]

Oregon slips from #2 to #4 in rushing yards, and will likely fall further without Dixon adding to Jonathan Stewart's yardage. And wait, I just noticed...Louisiana-Lafayette??? Well, they have two rushers in the top 50, their quarterback and running back. It's a good thing since they're 118th in passing.

Now for defense:

Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  11-1   215.4 [  1]   47.6 [  2]  167.7 [  2]
2.   Southern Cal                 8-2   235.9 [  2]   73.5 [  3]  162.4 [  1]
3.   LSU                         10-1   262.8 [  3]   75.3 [  4]  187.5 [ 11]
4.   Oregon St                    7-4   265.4 [  4]   45.6 [  1]  219.8 [ 49]
5.   Auburn                       7-4   278.3 [  5]   96.4 [ 13]  181.9 [  7]
6.   West Virginia                9-1   282.1 [  6]  102.1 [ 16]  180.0 [  5]
7.   Arizona St                   9-1   284.1 [  7]   77.2 [  5]  206.9 [ 35]
8.   Brigham Young                8-2   289.2 [  8]   85.2 [  7]  203.9 [ 31]
9.   TCU                          6-5   292.2 [  9]  104.7 [ 20]  187.5 [ 10]
10.  Oklahoma                     9-2   298.6 [ 10]   95.5 [ 12]  203.0 [ 27]

Ohio State is back up to #2 in both measures, and remains #1 overall. Holding Michigan to 15 yards rushing helped keep them on track.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Southern Cal                 8-2   235.9 [  2]   73.5 [  3]  162.4 [  1]
2.   Ohio State                  11-1   215.4 [  1]   47.6 [  2]  167.7 [  2]
3.   Texas Tech                   8-4   340.5 [ 30]  170.3 [ 76]  170.1 [  3]
4.   Clemson                      8-3   300.5 [ 12]  127.4 [ 36]  173.0 [  4]
5.   West Virginia                9-1   282.1 [  6]  102.1 [ 16]  180.0 [  5]
6.   Notre Dame                   2-9   339.8 [ 29]  159.4 [ 67]  180.3 [  6]
7.   Auburn                       7-4   278.3 [  5]   96.4 [ 13]  181.9 [  7]
8.   UNLV                         2-9   361.7 [ 43]  178.9 [ 81]  182.8 [  8]
9.   Utah                         8-3   305.5 [ 14]  119.7 [ 28]  185.7 [  9]
10.  TCU                          6-5   292.2 [  9]  104.7 [ 20]  187.5 [ 10]

Now USC claims the top passing defense. Texas Tech slips to third.

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon St                    7-4   265.4 [  4]   45.6 [  1]  219.8 [ 49]
2.   Ohio State                  11-1   215.4 [  1]   47.6 [  2]  167.7 [  2]
3.   Southern Cal                 8-2   235.9 [  2]   73.5 [  3]  162.4 [  1]
4.   LSU                         10-1   262.8 [  3]   75.3 [  4]  187.5 [ 11]
5.   Arizona St                   9-1   284.1 [  7]   77.2 [  5]  206.9 [ 35]
6.   Boston College               9-2   388.0 [ 68]   83.0 [  6]  305.0 [118]
7.   Brigham Young                8-2   289.2 [  8]   85.2 [  7]  203.9 [ 31]
8.   Florida                      8-3   347.8 [ 34]   87.4 [  8]  260.4 [102]
9.   Penn State                   8-4   346.0 [ 32]   89.1 [  9]  256.8 [ 97]
10.  Kansas                      11-0   300.3 [ 11]   89.2 [ 10]  211.0 [ 40]

Ohio State improves quite a bit but can't quite dislodge Oregon State from the top spot.

Yardage Stats - week 11 (thru Saturday Nov. 10)

Another week, another set of opposition-adjusted yardage stats. LSU and BYU remain the leaders in overall yardage difference.

Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition): 
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   LSU                         (9-1)  240.2   11    3
2.   Brigham Young               (7-2)  199.0    9    7
3.   Southern Cal                (8-2)  191.1   35    2
4.   Texas Tech                  (7-4)  186.9    2   32
5.   Oregon                      (8-1)  176.6    1   54
6.   West Virginia               (8-1)  169.0   24    5
7.   Oklahoma                    (9-1)  163.3   18    9
8.   Missouri                    (9-1)  162.0    3   43
9.   Arizona St                  (9-1)  159.7   23    8
10.  Ohio State                 (10-1)  157.1   64    1

Southern Cal moves up to #3 on strong defensive performances. They're essentially the mirror image of Texas Tech, which relies on offense but has a passable (no pun intended) defense as well. USC's offense is nowhere near where it was expected to be, but the defense is carrying them through their rough patch. Oregon and Ohio State are similarly opposites in offense and defensive yardage ranking.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon                      (8-1)  545.8 [  1]  294.9 [  2]  250.8 [ 38]
2.   Texas Tech                  (7-4)  524.4 [  2]   53.0 [118]  471.3 [  2]
3.   Missouri                    (9-1)  520.3 [  3]  167.2 [ 51]  353.0 [  6]
4.   Hawaii                      (9-0)  520.0 [  4]   48.3 [119]  471.7 [  1]
5.   Oklahoma St                 (5-5)  515.1 [  5]  245.6 [  8]  269.4 [ 25]
6.   Tulsa                       (7-3)  513.5 [  6]  168.4 [ 49]  345.1 [  7]
7.   Louisville                  (5-5)  500.8 [  7]  130.8 [ 86]  369.9 [  3]
8.   Nevada                      (5-4)  487.0 [  8]  202.7 [ 23]  284.2 [ 17]
9.   Brigham Young               (7-2)  484.3 [  9]  142.0 [ 74]  342.3 [  8]
10.  Florida                     (7-3)  483.0 [ 10]  208.4 [ 19]  274.5 [ 19]

Missouri improved their overall rank by bringing up their rushing average with over 200 against Texas A&M. The bottom of the list is perhaps more interesting:

111. Northern Illinois           (2-8)  298.2 [111]  116.0 [ 95]  182.2 [ 96]
112. Eastern Michigan            (3-8)  297.9 [112]  125.1 [ 90]  172.7 [103]
113. Utah St                    (0-10)  297.8 [113]  118.7 [ 94]  179.1 [ 99]
114. Syracuse                    (2-8)  297.4 [114]   71.5 [116]  225.8 [ 61]
115. Iowa                        (6-5)  285.5 [115]  124.5 [ 91]  161.0 [108]
116. Duke                        (1-9)  283.1 [116]   68.5 [117]  214.6 [ 74]
117. Temple                      (3-7)  258.9 [117]   43.9 [120]  214.9 [ 72]
118. Florida Int'l               (0-9)  256.8 [118]  114.9 [ 96]  141.9 [119]
119. Army                        (3-7)  241.8 [119]   91.6 [109]  150.1 [114]
120. Notre Dame                  (1-9)  237.1 [120]   90.2 [110]  146.8 [116]

Notre Dame has been dead last, week after week. Two winless teams join them in the bottom ten, along with their opponent for this week, Duke, and other conference dogs such as Northern Illinois and Syracuse. But at #115, Iowa is now 6-5 and bowl-bound. They played two of the teams on this list, and held them to 3 points total. It helps when scoring a touchdown means you win the game.

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Hawaii                      (9-0)  520.0 [  4]   48.3 [119]  471.7 [  1]
2.   Texas Tech                  (7-4)  524.4 [  2]   53.0 [118]  471.3 [  2]
3.   Louisville                  (5-5)  500.8 [  7]  130.8 [ 86]  369.9 [  3]
4.   Boston College              (8-2)  468.7 [ 15]  107.8 [101]  360.9 [  4]
5.   New Mexico St               (4-7)  435.0 [ 32]   74.2 [115]  360.7 [  5]
6.   Missouri                    (9-1)  520.3 [  3]  167.2 [ 51]  353.0 [  6]
7.   Tulsa                       (7-3)  513.5 [  6]  168.4 [ 49]  345.1 [  7]
8.   Brigham Young               (7-2)  484.3 [  9]  142.0 [ 74]  342.3 [  8]
9.   Arizona                     (4-6)  443.7 [ 25]  112.8 [ 98]  330.8 [  9]
10.  Washington St               (4-6)  469.9 [ 14]  152.7 [ 62]  317.2 [ 10]

The battle for #1 in passing yardage has been back and forth between Hawaii and Texas Tech, and is closer than ever this week.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                        (6-4)  447.4 [ 22]  357.2 [  1]   90.1 [120]
2.   Oregon                      (8-1)  545.8 [  1]  294.9 [  2]  250.8 [ 38]
3.   Arkansas                    (6-4)  443.5 [ 26]  293.0 [  3]  150.4 [113]
4.   West Virginia               (8-1)  446.5 [ 24]  284.0 [  4]  162.5 [106]
5.   Illinois                    (8-3)  423.9 [ 36]  277.9 [  5]  145.9 [117]
6.   Air Force                   (8-3)  422.1 [ 39]  271.1 [  6]  150.9 [112]
7.   Louisiana-Lafayette         (2-8)  394.8 [ 58]  252.2 [  7]  142.5 [118]
8.   Oklahoma St                 (5-5)  515.1 [  5]  245.6 [  8]  269.4 [ 25]
9.   LSU                         (9-1)  480.8 [ 11]  237.6 [  9]  243.2 [ 42]
10.  Washington                  (3-7)  441.9 [ 28]  234.4 [ 10]  207.4 [ 80]

Navy is in complete control of the rushing title now. 572 yards against North Texas didn't hurt. No matter how much you adjust that for level of competition, 572 yards is still going to be a lot.

Now the defense:

Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                 (10-1)  224.2 [  1]   53.0 [  2]  171.2 [  4]
2.   Southern Cal                (8-2)  236.9 [  2]   75.2 [  4]  161.7 [  2]
3.   LSU                         (9-1)  240.6 [  3]   59.2 [  3]  181.3 [  7]
4.   Oregon St                   (6-4)  259.0 [  4]   39.4 [  1]  219.6 [ 51]
5.   West Virginia               (8-1)  277.5 [  5]  105.2 [ 18]  172.2 [  5]
6.   Auburn                      (7-4)  279.6 [  6]   94.8 [ 13]  184.8 [  9]
7.   Brigham Young               (7-2)  285.3 [  7]   93.1 [ 12]  192.1 [ 16]
8.   Arizona St                  (9-1)  287.4 [  8]   77.1 [  5]  210.2 [ 39]
9.   Oklahoma                    (9-1)  293.7 [  9]   89.5 [  8]  204.1 [ 32]
10.  TCU                         (5-5)  295.0 [ 10]  113.0 [ 20]  181.9 [  8]

Ohio State fell from #1 in the polls, but their defense is still tops. For the first time in weeks, they aren't #1 against either the run or the pass, after leading in both categories a few weeks ago.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                  (7-4)  337.4 [ 32]  179.0 [ 80]  158.4 [  1]
2.   Southern Cal                (8-2)  236.9 [  2]   75.2 [  4]  161.7 [  2]
3.   Clemson                     (8-2)  299.8 [ 11]  128.7 [ 40]  171.0 [  3]
4.   Ohio State                 (10-1)  224.2 [  1]   53.0 [  2]  171.2 [  4]
5.   West Virginia               (8-1)  277.5 [  5]  105.2 [ 18]  172.2 [  5]
6.   Notre Dame                  (1-9)  337.1 [ 30]  156.3 [ 66]  180.7 [  6]
7.   LSU                         (9-1)  240.6 [  3]   59.2 [  3]  181.3 [  7]
8.   TCU                         (5-5)  295.0 [ 10]  113.0 [ 20]  181.9 [  8]
9.   Auburn                      (7-4)  279.6 [  6]   94.8 [ 13]  184.8 [  9]
10.  Virginia Tech               (8-2)  301.7 [ 13]  116.6 [ 26]  185.0 [ 10]

Notre Dame's passing defense continues to move up; this matches them up well with Duke, who can't run the ball.

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon St                   (6-4)  259.0 [  4]   39.4 [  1]  219.6 [ 51]
2.   Ohio State                 (10-1)  224.2 [  1]   53.0 [  2]  171.2 [  4]
3.   LSU                         (9-1)  240.6 [  3]   59.2 [  3]  181.3 [  7]
4.   Southern Cal                (8-2)  236.9 [  2]   75.2 [  4]  161.7 [  2]
5.   Arizona St                  (9-1)  287.4 [  8]   77.1 [  5]  210.2 [ 39]
6.   Florida                     (7-3)  337.4 [ 31]   81.7 [  6]  255.7 [ 98]
7.   Cincinnati                  (8-2)  364.6 [ 48]   85.1 [  7]  279.5 [111]
8.   Oklahoma                    (9-1)  293.7 [  9]   89.5 [  8]  204.1 [ 32]
9.   Boston College              (8-2)  408.8 [ 77]   91.2 [  9]  317.6 [119]
10.  Kansas                     (10-0)  300.2 [ 12]   92.4 [ 10]  207.8 [ 35]

Illinois ran the ball well against OSU last week, knocking them to #2.

Yardage Stats - week 10

Ever since I started posting schedule-adjusted yardage stats, BYU has been at or near the top of the rankings for total yardage difference, that is, when adjusted for opposition they are outgaining their opponents by the most.

In the beginning it seemed odd that the Cougars were so high on the list. After all, they were only 2-2 at the time. I speculated that one thing or other would have to adjust: either BYU was going to start winning games, or their stats would fall into line to more closely match their quality as a team.

Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition): 
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   LSU                         (8-1)  237.6   12    3
2.   Brigham Young               (6-2)  207.2    9    6
3.   Texas Tech                  (7-3)  199.2    2   25
4.   Southern Cal                (7-2)  197.5   35    2
5.   Oklahoma                    (8-1)  183.3   21    7
6.   Oregon                      (8-1)  180.4    1   56
7.   West Virginia               (7-1)  179.9   20    8
8.   Ohio State                 (10-0)  177.8   59    1
9.   Arizona St                  (8-1)  160.5   22   10
10.  Missouri                    (8-1)  156.0    5   47

As it turns out, BYU opted to start winning. Now 6-2, they've maintained their dominating performances yardage-wise while winning games. And their yardage advantage isn't just the product of a freak offense, like #3 Texas Tech's; BYU is in the top ten in both offensive and defensive margins, showing that they're gaining more yardage than their opponents normally give up, and holding their opponents below their average output. No other team has quite this balance, yardage-wise, on offense and defense.

For example, look at Oregon and Ohio State. Oregon has the #1 offense, but only the #56 defense. The Buckeyes are almost exactly opposite: their dominant #1 defense holds opponents down while their average, #59 offense gains basically the amount that a defense will give them.

BYU is now well in control of the Mountain West, and faces TCU tonight. The rest of their games are winnable, and a 10-2 record would match last year's finish and would be accomplished in the same way. Last year's squad also lost two games early, by close margins, then reeled off a succession of wins to close the season. Unfortunately by losing non-conference games the Cougars' bowl possibilities seem limited to a third straight Las Vegas bowl appearance.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon                      (8-1)  548.4 [  1]  298.0 [  3]  250.4 [ 40]
2.   Texas Tech                  (7-3)  526.7 [  2]   53.2 [118]  473.5 [  2]
3.   Hawaii                      (8-0)  524.5 [  3]   43.2 [119]  481.2 [  1]
4.   Tulsa                       (6-3)  516.9 [  4]  167.8 [ 50]  349.0 [  7]
5.   Missouri                    (8-1)  516.7 [  5]  165.2 [ 53]  351.5 [  5]
6.   Oklahoma St                 (5-4)  512.3 [  6]  243.1 [  7]  269.1 [ 24]
7.   Louisville                  (5-4)  502.0 [  7]  134.7 [ 82]  367.2 [  3]
8.   Nevada                      (5-4)  485.5 [  8]  201.1 [ 22]  284.4 [ 16]
9.   Brigham Young               (6-2)  478.3 [  9]  137.0 [ 81]  341.3 [  8]
10.  Texas                       (8-2)  475.3 [ 10]  207.6 [ 17]  267.7 [ 27]

Notre Dame is still #120, despite scoring 44 against Navy; both teams in fact gained a surprisingly small amount of yards to achieve their scores.

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Hawaii                      (8-0)  524.5 [  3]   43.2 [119]  481.2 [  1]
2.   Texas Tech                  (7-3)  526.7 [  2]   53.2 [118]  473.5 [  2]
3.   Louisville                  (5-4)  502.0 [  7]  134.7 [ 82]  367.2 [  3]
4.   New Mexico St               (4-6)  443.8 [ 29]   80.3 [112]  363.5 [  4]
5.   Missouri                    (8-1)  516.7 [  5]  165.2 [ 53]  351.5 [  5]
6.   Boston College              (8-1)  468.5 [ 14]  119.3 [ 95]  349.1 [  6]
7.   Tulsa                       (6-3)  516.9 [  4]  167.8 [ 50]  349.0 [  7]
8.   Brigham Young               (6-2)  478.3 [  9]  137.0 [ 81]  341.3 [  8]
9.   Arizona                     (4-6)  445.9 [ 28]  113.9 [ 99]  331.9 [  9]
10.  Washington St               (3-6)  463.2 [ 16]  159.4 [ 58]  303.8 [ 10]

Hawaii remains #1 in passing yardage, and inches up to #119 in rushing yardage.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                        (5-4)  431.1 [ 34]  334.2 [  1]   96.8 [120]
2.   Arkansas                    (6-3)  469.0 [ 13]  315.8 [  2]  153.1 [112]
3.   Oregon                      (8-1)  548.4 [  1]  298.0 [  3]  250.4 [ 40]
4.   West Virginia               (7-1)  457.0 [ 20]  293.3 [  4]  163.6 [107]
5.   Air Force                   (7-3)  419.5 [ 40]  270.8 [  5]  148.7 [114]
6.   Illinois                    (7-3)  404.2 [ 49]  266.9 [  6]  137.3 [119]
7.   Oklahoma St                 (5-4)  512.3 [  6]  243.1 [  7]  269.1 [ 24]
8.   Louisiana-Lafayette         (1-8)  381.2 [ 65]  242.4 [  8]  138.7 [117]
9.   Washington                  (3-6)  441.7 [ 30]  240.7 [  9]  201.0 [ 81]
10.  LSU                         (8-1)  471.8 [ 12]  231.6 [ 10]  240.2 [ 48]

Arkansas can't break Navy's grip on top of the rushing chart. The adjusted totals you see here for Navy and Arkansas are extremely close to the simple averages, meaning both teams have played opponents who have, in aggregate, a very average rushing defense.

Now the defense:

Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                 (10-0)  207.2 [  1]   38.8 [  1]  168.3 [  5]
2.   Southern Cal                (7-2)  228.7 [  2]   65.7 [  4]  163.0 [  4]
3.   LSU                         (8-1)  234.2 [  3]   56.4 [  3]  177.7 [  7]
4.   Oregon St                   (5-4)  258.8 [  4]   47.4 [  2]  211.4 [ 44]
5.   Auburn                      (7-3)  263.5 [  5]   86.9 [  9]  176.5 [  6]
6.   Brigham Young               (6-2)  271.1 [  6]   86.5 [  8]  184.5 [ 13]
7.   Oklahoma                    (8-1)  273.4 [  7]   71.5 [  5]  201.8 [ 31]
8.   West Virginia               (7-1)  277.1 [  8]  116.8 [ 28]  160.2 [  3]
9.   Clemson                     (7-2)  289.5 [  9]  134.0 [ 46]  155.4 [  2]
10.  Arizona St                  (8-1)  292.3 [ 10]   77.6 [  6]  214.6 [ 46]

Ohio State stays in the top spot, while Kansas falls out of the top ten after yielding scads of passing yards to Nebraska. The Huskers actually had more passing yards than KU on route to losing 76-39.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                  (7-3)  327.5 [ 25]  176.9 [ 80]  150.5 [  1]
2.   Clemson                     (7-2)  289.5 [  9]  134.0 [ 46]  155.4 [  2]
3.   West Virginia               (7-1)  277.1 [  8]  116.8 [ 28]  160.2 [  3]
4.   Southern Cal                (7-2)  228.7 [  2]   65.7 [  4]  163.0 [  4]
5.   Ohio State                 (10-0)  207.2 [  1]   38.8 [  1]  168.3 [  5]
6.   Auburn                      (7-3)  263.5 [  5]   86.9 [  9]  176.5 [  6]
7.   LSU                         (8-1)  234.2 [  3]   56.4 [  3]  177.7 [  7]
8.   TCU                         (5-4)  294.0 [ 12]  115.0 [ 24]  179.0 [  8]
9.   Notre Dame                  (1-8)  334.4 [ 28]  154.3 [ 62]  180.0 [  9]
10.  North Carolina St           (4-5)  388.1 [ 65]  204.2 [104]  183.9 [ 10]

Last week the Buckeyes were tops in passing defense but fell to #2 against the run; this week, they move back to the top in rushing but fall all the way to fifth against the pass. And how about Texas Tech? Not only do they pass well (#2) they defend against the pass even better...or maybe opponents know they should be running the ball against the #80 rushing defense?

That's what I used to think was going on with North Carolina State back when they were topping this chart, but it turned out they were for real. Last week, for example, Miami went 1-14 passing against them for only 82 yards. It was Kirby Freeman throwing, to be fair, but still...

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                 (10-0)  207.2 [  1]   38.8 [  1]  168.3 [  5]
2.   Oregon St                   (5-4)  258.8 [  4]   47.4 [  2]  211.4 [ 44]
3.   LSU                         (8-1)  234.2 [  3]   56.4 [  3]  177.7 [  7]
4.   Southern Cal                (7-2)  228.7 [  2]   65.7 [  4]  163.0 [  4]
5.   Oklahoma                    (8-1)  273.4 [  7]   71.5 [  5]  201.8 [ 31]
6.   Arizona St                  (8-1)  292.3 [ 10]   77.6 [  6]  214.6 [ 46]
7.   Florida                     (6-3)  335.0 [ 29]   82.0 [  7]  253.0 [ 93]
8.   Brigham Young               (6-2)  271.1 [  6]   86.5 [  8]  184.5 [ 13]
9.   Auburn                      (7-3)  263.5 [  5]   86.9 [  9]  176.5 [  6]
10.  Boston College              (8-1)  398.3 [ 71]   88.5 [ 10]  309.8 [117]

Ohio State held Wisconsin to 12 yards rushing last Saturday. Twelve yards. Wisconsin, who ranked #18 in the country going into that game. That's the kind of performance that wins national championships.

Yardage Stats Update - week 9

Here are latest schedule-adjusted yardage stats. The Pages on the sidebar lists all the categories for which teams are ranked #1 to #120.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon                      (7-1)  554.4 [  1]  299.8 [  2]  254.6 [ 34]
2.   Hawaii                      (8-0)  526.1 [  2]   43.3 [120]  482.7 [  1]
3.   Texas Tech                  (6-3)  517.3 [  3]   53.3 [119]  464.0 [  2]
4.   Tulsa                       (5-3)  514.3 [  4]  149.4 [ 66]  364.8 [  4]
5.   Louisville                  (5-4)  507.6 [  5]  136.7 [ 80]  370.9 [  3]
6.   Oklahoma St                 (5-3)  491.2 [  6]  244.0 [  8]  247.1 [ 47]
7.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  486.4 [  7]  150.2 [ 65]  336.1 [  7]
8.   Nevada                      (4-4)  485.3 [  8]  190.3 [ 35]  294.9 [ 15]
9.   Missouri                    (7-1)  484.9 [  9]  156.0 [ 60]  328.9 [  9]
10.  LSU                         (7-1)  475.1 [ 10]  252.2 [  6]  222.8 [ 66]

No change at the top of the list (Oregon) or the bottom (Notre Dame).

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Hawaii                      (8-0)  526.1 [  2]   43.3 [120]  482.7 [  1]
2.   Texas Tech                  (6-3)  517.3 [  3]   53.3 [119]  464.0 [  2]
3.   Louisville                  (5-4)  507.6 [  5]  136.7 [ 80]  370.9 [  3]
4.   Tulsa                       (5-3)  514.3 [  4]  149.4 [ 66]  364.8 [  4]
5.   New Mexico St               (4-5)  445.4 [ 25]   89.6 [108]  355.8 [  5]
6.   Boston College              (8-0)  472.4 [ 12]  127.3 [ 89]  345.0 [  6]
7.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  486.4 [  7]  150.2 [ 65]  336.1 [  7]
8.   Arizona                     (3-6)  436.4 [ 31]  107.2 [102]  329.1 [  8]
9.   Missouri                    (7-1)  484.9 [  9]  156.0 [ 60]  328.9 [  9]
10.  Northwestern                (5-4)  424.9 [ 39]  118.4 [ 94]  306.5 [ 10]

Hawaii remains #1 in passing yardage, and #120 in rushing yardage; Texas Tech has to settle for being #2 passing and #119 rushing.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                        (4-4)  434.2 [ 33]  345.5 [  1]   88.7 [120]
2.   Oregon                      (7-1)  554.4 [  1]  299.8 [  2]  254.6 [ 34]
3.   West Virginia               (7-1)  454.2 [ 19]  295.0 [  3]  159.1 [107]
4.   Arkansas                    (5-3)  456.0 [ 17]  294.9 [  4]  161.1 [106]
5.   Air Force                   (6-3)  412.0 [ 45]  259.2 [  5]  152.8 [114]
6.   LSU                         (7-1)  475.1 [ 10]  252.2 [  6]  222.8 [ 66]
7.   Illinois                    (6-3)  384.7 [ 59]  249.0 [  7]  135.6 [119]
8.   Oklahoma St                 (5-3)  491.2 [  6]  244.0 [  8]  247.1 [ 47]
9.   Louisiana-Lafayette         (1-7)  383.4 [ 62]  243.7 [  9]  139.6 [118]
10.  Texas A&M                   (6-3)  405.3 [ 48]  221.7 [ 10]  183.5 [ 94]

...and Navy remains #1 rushing (and #120 passing).

Now the defense:

Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  (9-0)  199.2 [  1]   52.0 [  2]  147.1 [  1]
2.   Southern Cal                (6-2)  233.6 [  2]   69.7 [  4]  163.8 [  3]
3.   LSU                         (7-1)  242.7 [  3]   58.3 [  3]  184.4 [ 13]
4.   Oregon St                   (5-3)  261.0 [  4]   47.3 [  1]  213.7 [ 49]
5.   Auburn                      (6-3)  261.7 [  5]   82.4 [  7]  179.3 [  9]
6.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  263.4 [  6]   83.9 [  9]  179.5 [ 10]
7.   Kansas                      (8-0)  278.5 [  7]   92.7 [ 13]  185.7 [ 19]
8.   West Virginia               (7-1)  280.7 [  8]  115.5 [ 27]  165.1 [  4]
9.   Oklahoma                    (7-1)  280.9 [  9]   82.1 [  6]  198.8 [ 36]
10.  Wyoming                     (5-3)  288.7 [ 10]  111.3 [ 23]  177.4 [  8]

Ohio State stays in the top spot, while USC moves up to #2 after holding #1 offense Oregon to well below its average.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  (9-0)  199.2 [  1]   52.0 [  2]  147.1 [  1]
2.   Clemson                     (6-2)  299.5 [ 13]  139.3 [ 52]  160.1 [  2]
3.   Southern Cal                (6-2)  233.6 [  2]   69.7 [  4]  163.8 [  3]
4.   West Virginia               (7-1)  280.7 [  8]  115.5 [ 27]  165.1 [  4]
5.   Texas Tech                  (6-3)  357.5 [ 48]  190.4 [ 89]  167.0 [  5]
6.   Notre Dame                  (1-7)  333.1 [ 32]  160.9 [ 68]  172.1 [  6]
7.   Colorado                    (5-4)  309.2 [ 17]  135.3 [ 46]  173.8 [  7]
8.   Wyoming                     (5-3)  288.7 [ 10]  111.3 [ 23]  177.4 [  8]
9.   Auburn                      (6-3)  261.7 [  5]   82.4 [  7]  179.3 [  9]
10.  Brigham Young               (5-2)  263.4 [  6]   83.9 [  9]  179.5 [ 10]

The Buckeyes stay on top in pass defense even as they slip to #2 against the run.

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon St                   (5-3)  261.0 [  4]   47.3 [  1]  213.7 [ 49]
2.   Ohio State                  (9-0)  199.2 [  1]   52.0 [  2]  147.1 [  1]
3.   LSU                         (7-1)  242.7 [  3]   58.3 [  3]  184.4 [ 13]
4.   Southern Cal                (6-2)  233.6 [  2]   69.7 [  4]  163.8 [  3]
5.   Florida                     (5-3)  334.9 [ 33]   77.5 [  5]  257.3 [ 99]
6.   Oklahoma                    (7-1)  280.9 [  9]   82.1 [  6]  198.8 [ 36]
7.   Auburn                      (6-3)  261.7 [  5]   82.4 [  7]  179.3 [  9]
8.   Arizona St                  (8-0)  292.4 [ 11]   82.6 [  8]  209.8 [ 43]
9.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  263.4 [  6]   83.9 [  9]  179.5 [ 10]
10.  Boston College              (8-0)  392.4 [ 67]   85.2 [ 10]  307.2 [116]

Oregon State claims the top spot. #5 Florida certainly didn't look like they could stop the run against Georgia, but they've held most of their opponents below 100 yards.

Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition): 
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   LSU                         (7-1)  232.4   10    3
2.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  222.9    7    6
3.   Oregon                      (7-1)  201.5    1   44
4.   Southern Cal                (6-2)  194.8   37    2
5.   Ohio State                  (9-0)  180.1   65    1
6.   West Virginia               (7-1)  173.4   19    8
7.   Oklahoma                    (7-1)  168.2   23    9
8.   Kansas                      (8-0)  164.6   27    7
9.   Texas Tech                  (6-3)  159.8    3   48
10.  Clemson                     (6-2)  146.8   24   13

BYU has been #1 since I started looking at these stats in week 5, but this week they fall to #2 behind LSU. Now, of course, they don't look too out of place at 5-2.

Last week #4 Southern Cal outgained #3 Oregon by 39 yards, closing the gap between them from 22 yards to about 7 yards.

Yardage Stats Update for week 8

Here are latest schedule-adjusted yardage stats. The Pages on the sidebar lists all the categories for which teams are ranked #1 to #120.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon                      (6-1)  561.1 [  1]  305.4 [  2]  255.7 [ 38]
2.   Hawaii                      (7-0)  549.0 [  2]   43.2 [120]  505.8 [  1]
3.   Tulsa                       (4-3)  544.0 [  3]  166.1 [ 47]  377.8 [  4]
4.   Louisville                  (4-4)  530.3 [  4]  137.0 [ 76]  393.3 [  3]
5.   Nevada                      (3-4)  511.2 [  5]  207.9 [ 20]  303.3 [ 14]
6.   Texas Tech                  (6-2)  506.7 [  6]   52.8 [119]  453.9 [  2]
7.   Missouri                    (6-1)  495.7 [  7]  165.6 [ 48]  330.0 [  9]
8.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  492.5 [  8]  157.3 [ 59]  335.2 [  7]
9.   Oklahoma St                 (5-3)  487.4 [  9]  243.4 [  8]  244.0 [ 50]
10.  Boston College              (7-0)  485.8 [ 10]  135.7 [ 79]  350.0 [  6]

Oregon is now the top-rated offense, by yardage, in the country, after racking up 661 yards vs. Washington. Notre Dame is still last in total offense among all 120 Division I-A teams. In fact they are nearly 30 yards per game behind #119, winless Florida International.

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Hawaii                      (7-0)  549.0 [  2]   43.2 [120]  505.8 [  1]
2.   Texas Tech                  (6-2)  506.7 [  6]   52.8 [119]  453.9 [  2]
3.   Louisville                  (4-4)  530.3 [  4]  137.0 [ 76]  393.3 [  3]
4.   Tulsa                       (4-3)  544.0 [  3]  166.1 [ 47]  377.8 [  4]
5.   New Mexico St               (4-4)  441.5 [ 28]   84.4 [111]  357.0 [  5]
6.   Boston College              (7-0)  485.8 [ 10]  135.7 [ 79]  350.0 [  6]
7.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  492.5 [  8]  157.3 [ 59]  335.2 [  7]
8.   Boise St                    (6-1)  479.9 [ 11]  146.1 [ 72]  333.7 [  8]
9.   Missouri                    (6-1)  495.7 [  7]  165.6 [ 48]  330.0 [  9]
10.  Northwestern                (5-3)  437.6 [ 32]  118.5 [ 93]  319.1 [ 10]

Hawaii widens its lead at the top spot as Tech had "only" 397 passing yards vs. Missouri. Hawaii also holds onto its #120 rushing offense average.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                        (4-3)  428.8 [ 36]  348.1 [  1]   80.6 [120]
2.   Oregon                      (6-1)  561.1 [  1]  305.4 [  2]  255.7 [ 38]
3.   Arkansas                    (4-3)  465.0 [ 16]  302.2 [  3]  162.7 [107]
4.   West Virginia               (6-1)  459.3 [ 19]  301.2 [  4]  158.1 [111]
5.   Air Force                   (6-2)  419.2 [ 41]  262.7 [  5]  156.5 [113]
6.   Illinois                    (5-3)  386.3 [ 58]  249.7 [  6]  136.6 [117]
7.   LSU                         (7-1)  474.4 [ 14]  247.8 [  7]  226.6 [ 63]
8.   Oklahoma St                 (5-3)  487.4 [  9]  243.4 [  8]  244.0 [ 50]
9.   Louisiana-Lafayette         (1-7)  374.5 [ 70]  240.8 [  9]  133.7 [119]
10.  Texas A&M                   (6-2)  405.3 [ 53]  240.8 [ 10]  164.5 [104]

Navy stays opposites with Hawaii; the Midshipmen are #120 in passing attack to go with their #1 rushing rating. Oregon jumps up to #2 after its 465 yards against Washington.

No real surprises at the top of the defensive chart, either:

 

Total Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  (8-0)  192.3 [  1]   42.3 [  1]  149.9 [  2]
2.   LSU                         (7-1)  241.8 [  2]   61.2 [  3]  180.5 [ 16]
3.   Southern Cal                (6-1)  250.1 [  3]   71.1 [  6]  179.0 [ 11]
4.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  253.2 [  4]   73.9 [  7]  179.2 [ 12]
5.   Auburn                      (5-3)  270.1 [  5]   84.6 [ 11]  185.4 [ 20]
6.   Oregon St                   (4-3)  272.7 [  6]   49.9 [  2]  222.8 [ 56]
7.   Oklahoma                    (7-1)  278.7 [  7]   82.0 [ 10]  196.6 [ 31]
8.   West Virginia               (6-1)  283.1 [  8]  106.4 [ 18]  176.6 [  9]
9.   Kansas                      (7-0)  289.0 [  9]  113.9 [ 24]  175.1 [  8]
10.  Arizona St                  (7-0)  290.6 [ 10]   90.6 [ 12]  200.0 [ 34]

Ohio State takes the top spot, and now is 1st against the rush and 2nd against the pass.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Clemson                     (5-2)  304.5 [ 13]  155.5 [ 69]  148.9 [  1]
2.   Ohio State                  (8-0)  192.3 [  1]   42.3 [  1]  149.9 [  2]
3.   North Carolina St           (2-5)  369.7 [ 57]  212.9 [111]  156.7 [  3]
4.   Southern Miss               (3-3)  349.0 [ 45]  188.1 [ 89]  160.9 [  4]
5.   Colorado                    (4-4)  305.5 [ 15]  138.0 [ 49]  167.5 [  5]
6.   Wyoming                     (4-3)  291.8 [ 11]  123.0 [ 31]  168.8 [  6]
7.   Notre Dame                  (1-7)  330.9 [ 29]  159.0 [ 71]  171.8 [  7]
8.   Kansas                      (7-0)  289.0 [  9]  113.9 [ 24]  175.1 [  8]
9.   West Virginia               (6-1)  283.1 [  8]  106.4 [ 18]  176.6 [  9]
10.  Texas Tech                  (6-2)  360.2 [ 50]  182.9 [ 85]  177.3 [ 10]

East Carolina passed for 254 yards on last week's #1 North Carolina State, enough to drop them to third. Clemson takes over as the new pass defense champion, with Ohio State just a yard per game behind. The national leader in unadjusted yardage, South Carolina, ranks only 16th.

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (adjusted for opposition):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  (8-0)  192.3 [  1]   42.3 [  1]  149.9 [  2]
2.   Oregon St                   (4-3)  272.7 [  6]   49.9 [  2]  222.8 [ 56]
3.   LSU                         (7-1)  241.8 [  2]   61.2 [  3]  180.5 [ 16]
4.   Florida                     (5-2)  312.7 [ 20]   61.2 [  4]  251.4 [ 90]
5.   UCLA                        (5-2)  307.5 [ 17]   63.2 [  5]  244.2 [ 81]
6.   Southern Cal                (6-1)  250.1 [  3]   71.1 [  6]  179.0 [ 11]
7.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  253.2 [  4]   73.9 [  7]  179.2 [ 12]
8.   Boston College              (7-0)  403.2 [ 76]   74.9 [  8]  328.2 [118]
9.   Penn State                  (6-2)  337.9 [ 36]   80.7 [  9]  257.2 [ 93]
10.  Oklahoma                    (7-1)  278.7 [  7]   82.0 [ 10]  196.6 [ 31]

Oregon State's rushing defense matches the performance of their rushing offense; must be interesting on those occassions where the 1st teams face off in practice.

Total Yardage Differential (adjusted for opposition): 
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   Brigham Young               (5-2)  239.3    8    4
2.   LSU                         (7-1)  232.5   14    2
3.   Oregon                      (6-1)  202.1    1   49
4.   Southern Cal                (6-1)  180.6   33    3
5.   West Virginia               (6-1)  176.2   19    8
6.   Oklahoma                    (7-1)  170.9   21    7
7.   Ohio State                  (8-0)  170.7   81    1
8.   Hawaii                      (7-0)  165.0    2   64
9.   Florida                     (5-2)  163.9   12   20
10.  Kansas                      (7-0)  149.0   31    9
11.  Arizona St                  (7-0)  148.2   30   10

BYU has been #1 since I started looking at these stats in week 5. Since then they've kept winning. They're in pretty good company if you look at the next 10 teams.

Yardage stats update

The latest schedule-adjusted yardage stats have been updated on their respective pages. See the sidebar for the full list.

Total Offense Yardage Averages (Corrected for Schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Tulsa                       (4-2)  584.3 [  1]  190.7 [ 31]  393.6 [  4]
2.   Hawaii                      (7-0)  558.7 [  2]   52.5 [120]  506.1 [  1]
3.   Louisville                  (4-3)  552.8 [  3]  132.7 [ 86]  420.1 [  3]
4.   Texas Tech                  (6-1)  537.5 [  4]   69.6 [117]  467.8 [  2]
5.   Nevada                      (2-4)  537.2 [  5]  205.7 [ 21]  331.5 [  9]
6.   Oregon                      (5-1)  535.1 [  6]  277.7 [  4]  257.4 [ 34]
7.   Missouri                    (5-1)  513.1 [  7]  166.2 [ 47]  346.9 [  7]
8.   Brigham Young               (4-2)  497.0 [  8]  163.5 [ 51]  333.4 [  8]
9.   California                  (5-1)  493.7 [  9]  235.9 [  8]  257.8 [ 33]
10.  Houston                     (3-3)  493.5 [ 10]  212.5 [ 18]  281.0 [ 20]

Boise State doesn't make the top ten despite their 627 yards against Nevada. The Broncos are 10th in non-adjusted yards, but rank 17th when adjusted (Nevada ranks 114th in total defense). Notre Dame is ranked last in total offense among all 120 Division I-A teams.

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Hawaii                      (7-0)  558.7 [  2]   52.5 [120]  506.1 [  1]
2.   Texas Tech                  (6-1)  537.5 [  4]   69.6 [117]  467.8 [  2]
3.   Louisville                  (4-3)  552.8 [  3]  132.7 [ 86]  420.1 [  3]
4.   Tulsa                       (4-2)  584.3 [  1]  190.7 [ 31]  393.6 [  4]
5.   Boston College              (7-0)  487.3 [ 11]  127.7 [ 89]  359.6 [  5]
6.   New Mexico St               (3-4)  457.2 [ 18]  102.4 [103]  354.8 [  6]
7.   Missouri                    (5-1)  513.1 [  7]  166.2 [ 47]  346.9 [  7]
8.   Brigham Young               (4-2)  497.0 [  8]  163.5 [ 51]  333.4 [  8]
9.   Nevada                      (2-4)  537.2 [  5]  205.7 [ 21]  331.5 [  9]
10.  North Texas                 (1-5)  430.2 [ 40]  103.7 [101]  326.4 [ 10]

Hawaii retakes the lead from Tech this week, aided by some overtime yards. The Warriors have been in two overtime games this year which pad their stats slightly, otherwise Graham Harrell and crew would be in the top spot.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (Corrected for Schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                        (4-2)  437.3 [ 34]  340.3 [  1]   97.0 [120]
2.   West Virginia               (5-1)  482.5 [ 13]  310.1 [  2]  172.4 [102]
3.   Arkansas                    (3-3)  467.6 [ 16]  302.5 [  3]  165.1 [109]
4.   Oregon                      (5-1)  535.1 [  6]  277.7 [  4]  257.4 [ 34]
5.   Air Force                   (5-2)  434.3 [ 37]  265.7 [  5]  168.5 [105]
6.   Illinois                    (5-2)  397.1 [ 55]  256.7 [  6]  140.3 [117]
7.   LSU                         (6-1)  449.3 [ 26]  241.4 [  7]  207.8 [ 76]
8.   California                  (5-1)  493.7 [  9]  235.9 [  8]  257.8 [ 33]
9.   Texas A&M                   (5-2)  411.7 [ 50]  231.6 [  9]  180.0 [ 95]
10.  Oklahoma St                 (4-3)  472.4 [ 14]  229.0 [ 10]  243.3 [ 48]

Hawaii ranks dead last (#120) in rushing offense, however. Likewise Navy, #1 in rushing offense, ranks last in passing offense. So far this one-dimensional-offense scheme has worked out better for the Warriors than it has for the Midshipmen. Last week's rushing leader, Arkansas, falls to #3 after being held to 67 yards by Auburn.

Total Defense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  (7-0)  207.4 [  1]   52.0 [  2]  155.4 [  3]
2.   LSU                         (6-1)  236.2 [  2]   59.4 [  4]  176.7 [ 14]
3.   Southern Cal                (5-1)  236.4 [  3]   65.4 [  6]  170.9 [ 10]
4.   Brigham Young               (4-2)  241.2 [  4]   65.6 [  7]  175.5 [ 12]
5.   Auburn                      (5-2)  249.0 [  5]   78.3 [ 10]  170.7 [  9]
6.   Oklahoma                    (6-1)  251.0 [  6]   59.1 [  3]  191.9 [ 23]
7.   Oregon St                   (4-3)  265.8 [  7]   47.1 [  1]  218.7 [ 50]
8.   South Florida               (6-0)  277.8 [  8]   84.5 [ 12]  193.2 [ 25]
9.   West Virginia               (5-1)  280.7 [  9]  112.2 [ 22]  168.5 [  8]
10.  Arizona St                  (7-0)  285.7 [ 10]   87.2 [ 14]  198.4 [ 30]

Last week's #2, Boise State, falls to #13 after their 68-67 quadruple overtime win, wherein Nevada put up 639 yards of offense. Ohio State remains dominant overall, strong against both the run and pass.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   North Carolina St           (1-5)  372.6 [ 57]  247.3 [117]  125.3 [  1]
2.   Clemson                     (4-2)  321.6 [ 26]  172.6 [ 78]  149.0 [  2]
3.   Ohio State                  (7-0)  207.4 [  1]   52.0 [  2]  155.4 [  3]
4.   Notre Dame                  (1-6)  315.3 [ 21]  156.5 [ 70]  158.8 [  4]
5.   Colorado St                 (0-6)  336.8 [ 34]  170.3 [ 76]  166.4 [  5]
6.   UNLV                        (2-5)  320.0 [ 25]  152.5 [ 64]  167.4 [  6]
7.   Kansas                      (6-0)  287.9 [ 11]  119.9 [ 30]  168.0 [  7]
8.   West Virginia               (5-1)  280.7 [  9]  112.2 [ 22]  168.5 [  8]
9.   Auburn                      (5-2)  249.0 [  5]   78.3 [ 10]  170.7 [  9]
10.  Southern Cal                (5-1)  236.4 [  3]   65.4 [  6]  170.9 [ 10]

Teams still aren't passing on North Carolina State; perhaps it's not just their lack of rushing defense? Hard to say. Notre Dame stays strong in their only area of competence this season. Colorado State and UNLV can also point to this stats as a bright spot in contrast to their poor records.

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon St                   (4-3)  265.8 [  7]   47.1 [  1]  218.7 [ 50]
2.   Ohio State                  (7-0)  207.4 [  1]   52.0 [  2]  155.4 [  3]
3.   Oklahoma                    (6-1)  251.0 [  6]   59.1 [  3]  191.9 [ 23]
4.   LSU                         (6-1)  236.2 [  2]   59.4 [  4]  176.7 [ 14]
5.   Florida                     (4-2)  297.0 [ 14]   63.7 [  5]  233.2 [ 65]
6.   Southern Cal                (5-1)  236.4 [  3]   65.4 [  6]  170.9 [ 10]
7.   Brigham Young               (4-2)  241.2 [  4]   65.6 [  7]  175.5 [ 12]
8.   Cincinnati                  (6-1)  329.0 [ 31]   68.8 [  8]  260.1 [ 96]
9.   UCLA                        (4-2)  318.7 [ 23]   71.0 [  9]  247.6 [ 87]
10.  Auburn                      (5-2)  249.0 [  5]   78.3 [ 10]  170.7 [  9]

Auburn was only 32nd on this chart before last Saturday when they prevented Darren McFadden and Felix Jones from combining for 100 yards; normally they each run for over 100 yards, so this was quite an accomplishment. Other teams had figured out the Razorbacks can't pass (ranked #109), but those other teams still weren't able to stop Arkansas' rush attack.

Total Yardage Differential (Corrected for Schedule) thru 10/7/2007
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   Brigham Young               (4-2)  255.8    8    4
2.   LSU                         (6-1)  213.0   26    2
3.   Oklahoma                    (6-1)  206.0   19    6
4.   West Virginia               (5-1)  201.7   13    9
5.   Oregon                      (5-1)  195.1    6   39
6.   Florida                     (4-2)  186.9   12   14
7.   Southern Cal                (5-1)  177.8   48    3
8.   Boise St                    (5-1)  170.7   17   13
9.   Texas Tech                  (6-1)  165.3    4   55
10.  Hawaii                      (7-0)  163.0    2   71
11.  Kansas                      (6-0)  162.1   23   11
12.  South Florida               (6-0)  158.0   36    8
13.  Oregon St                   (4-3)  156.4   43    7
14.  California                  (5-1)  154.9    9   36
15.  Texas                       (5-2)  148.1   28   15
16.  Arizona St                  (7-0)  146.7   38   10
17.  Ohio State                  (7-0)  146.2   85    1

BYU remains #1 yet again. They might have a season similar to last year's, where they lost a few games early then went on a long winning streak. Notice there are five undefeated teams from #10 to #17. The other one, Boston College, is way down at #35. Hawaii is getting by on offense, while Ohio State is winning from defense. There's no question that the Warriors are getting into trouble from lack of defense, but lack of O hasn't bit the Buckeyes yet.

Schedule-adjusted yardage stats update

I've updated the yardage stats on their respective pages. The highlights:

Total Offense Yardage Averages (Corrected for Schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Tulsa                       (3-2)  599.8 [  1]  202.5 [ 25]  397.3 [  4]
2.   Louisville                  (3-3)  556.8 [  2]  119.9 [ 91]  436.8 [  3]
3.   Texas Tech                  (5-1)  549.7 [  3]   66.3 [116]  483.4 [  1]
4.   Hawaii                      (6-0)  548.5 [  4]   66.2 [117]  482.3 [  2]
5.   Oregon                      (4-1)  545.6 [  5]  291.4 [  4]  254.2 [ 40]
6.   Arkansas                    (3-2)  511.3 [  6]  350.8 [  1]  160.5 [108]
7.   Missouri                    (5-0)  491.6 [  7]  166.6 [ 45]  324.9 [ 11]
8.   Nevada                      (2-3)  485.4 [  8]  156.5 [ 54]  328.9 [ 10]
9.   Brigham Young               (3-2)  478.7 [  9]  145.9 [ 65]  332.7 [  9]
10.  West Virginia               (5-1)  476.4 [ 10]  304.0 [  3]  172.3 [101]

Tulsa and Louisville continue to rack up the yards if not the wins. Oregon slips a few notches without playing, as their competition adjusts itself they lose 40 yards of average offense. New Mexico State, which made the top ten last week, dropped to #20 after posting -19 rushing yards and 108 passing yards against Boise State. Notre Dame, despite beating UCLA, gained less than 100 yards rushing and under 50 yards passing and still ranks dead last in Division I-AA in yardage output.

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                  (5-1)  549.7 [  3]   66.3 [116]  483.4 [  1]
2.   Hawaii                      (6-0)  548.5 [  4]   66.2 [117]  482.3 [  2]
3.   Louisville                  (3-3)  556.8 [  2]  119.9 [ 91]  436.8 [  3]
4.   Tulsa                       (3-2)  599.8 [  1]  202.5 [ 25]  397.3 [  4]
5.   Boston College              (6-0)  475.2 [ 11]  120.1 [ 90]  355.0 [  5]
6.   New Mexico St               (3-3)  460.0 [ 20]  106.8 [ 98]  353.1 [  6]
7.   North Texas                 (0-5)  442.0 [ 31]   96.6 [106]  345.3 [  7]
8.   Washington St               (2-4)  470.3 [ 14]  136.1 [ 78]  334.2 [  8]
9.   Brigham Young               (3-2)  478.7 [  9]  145.9 [ 65]  332.7 [  9]
10.  Nevada                      (2-3)  485.4 [  8]  156.5 [ 54]  328.9 [ 10]

Texas Tech 'passes' Hawaii to take the number one spot by about a yard average. North Texas passed for nearly 400 yards last week in another losing effort.

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (Corrected for Schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Arkansas                    (3-2)  511.3 [  6]  350.8 [  1]  160.5 [108]
2.   Navy                        (3-2)  413.9 [ 50]  337.6 [  2]   76.2 [120]
3.   West Virginia               (5-1)  476.4 [ 10]  304.0 [  3]  172.3 [101]
4.   Oregon                      (4-1)  545.6 [  5]  291.4 [  4]  254.2 [ 40]
5.   Illinois                    (5-1)  414.8 [ 49]  277.6 [  5]  137.1 [115]
6.   Texas A&M                   (5-1)  401.4 [ 57]  252.9 [  6]  148.4 [112]
7.   Air Force                   (4-2)  424.7 [ 41]  245.1 [  7]  179.5 [ 97]
8.   Louisiana-Lafayette         (1-5)  372.8 [ 76]  242.8 [  8]  130.0 [118]
9.   LSU                         (6-0)  441.3 [ 32]  239.0 [  9]  202.3 [ 78]
10.  Washington                  (2-3)  429.9 [ 38]  227.7 [ 10]  202.1 [ 79]

There's also a 1-2 switch in the rushing list, as Arkansas takes over from pass-averse Navy. The Razorbacks claim two of the top eight rushers in the country, Darren McFadden of course at #3, and Felix Jones at #8.

There was also a change at the top of the overall defense list:

Total Defense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  (6-0)  193.7 [  1]   35.3 [  1]  158.3 [  6]
2.   Boise St                    (4-1)  218.3 [  2]   42.3 [  3]  176.0 [ 12]
3.   Southern Cal                (4-1)  228.3 [  3]   76.9 [ 10]  151.3 [  4]
4.   LSU                         (6-0)  233.8 [  4]   62.7 [  7]  171.1 [  8]
5.   Oregon St                   (3-3)  237.1 [  5]   36.7 [  2]  200.4 [ 35]
6.   Brigham Young               (3-2)  237.8 [  6]   61.6 [  5]  176.2 [ 13]
7.   Oklahoma                    (5-1)  238.0 [  7]   65.2 [  8]  172.8 [  9]
8.   Arizona St                  (6-0)  276.5 [  8]   81.5 [ 11]  194.9 [ 29]
9.   Colorado                    (4-2)  284.5 [  9]  109.6 [ 25]  174.9 [ 10]
10.  West Virginia               (5-1)  288.1 [ 10]  110.3 [ 26]  177.7 [ 18]

Ohio State's near-shutout of Purdue put them on top of the yardage defense list. Boise State vaults into #2 for holding former offensive-top-10 New Mexico State to less than 100 overall yards. And Southern Cal moves up slightly for losing at home to Stanford! The Trojans, you see, held Stanford to well below their offensive averages in yardage, but that doesn't necessarily prevent 4th-and-20 conversions or last minute touchdowns. Louisville, #2 in total offense, ranks last in total defense.

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   North Carolina St           (1-5)  362.4 [ 49]  239.1 [119]  123.3 [  1]
2.   Notre Dame                  (1-5)  298.5 [ 13]  151.5 [ 60]  146.9 [  2]
3.   San Jose St                 (3-3)  380.8 [ 62]  229.8 [115]  150.9 [  3]
4.   Southern Cal                (4-1)  228.3 [  3]   76.9 [ 10]  151.3 [  4]
5.   Clemson                     (4-2)  321.4 [ 25]  166.9 [ 78]  154.4 [  5]
6.   Ohio State                  (6-0)  193.7 [  1]   35.3 [  1]  158.3 [  6]
7.   Houston                     (2-3)  322.0 [ 26]  152.5 [ 65]  169.4 [  7]
8.   LSU                         (6-0)  233.8 [  4]   62.7 [  7]  171.1 [  8]
9.   Oklahoma                    (5-1)  238.0 [  7]   65.2 [  8]  172.8 [  9]
10.  Colorado                    (4-2)  284.5 [  9]  109.6 [ 25]  174.9 [ 10]

North Carolina State dubiously takes the #1 spot for being so easy to run against (check out the #119 rank). Notre Dame moves up to #2 in their best category by far.

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Ohio State                  (6-0)  193.7 [  1]   35.3 [  1]  158.3 [  6]
2.   Oregon St                   (3-3)  237.1 [  5]   36.7 [  2]  200.4 [ 35]
3.   Boise St                    (4-1)  218.3 [  2]   42.3 [  3]  176.0 [ 12]
4.   Cincinnati                  (6-0)  329.2 [ 33]   52.6 [  4]  276.5 [105]
5.   Brigham Young               (3-2)  237.8 [  6]   61.6 [  5]  176.2 [ 13]
6.   Florida                     (4-2)  300.8 [ 16]   62.5 [  6]  238.2 [ 76]
7.   LSU                         (6-0)  233.8 [  4]   62.7 [  7]  171.1 [  8]
8.   Oklahoma                    (5-1)  238.0 [  7]   65.2 [  8]  172.8 [  9]
9.   UCLA                        (4-2)  319.3 [ 23]   75.9 [  9]  243.3 [ 88]
10.  Southern Cal                (4-1)  228.3 [  3]   76.9 [ 10]  151.3 [  4]

Ohio State held Purdue to 4 yards rushing last Saturday.

Total Yardage Differential (Corrected for Schedule) thru 10/7/2007
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   Brigham Young               (3-2)  240.8    9    6
2.   Oklahoma                    (5-1)  235.1   12    7
3.   Boise St                    (4-1)  222.0   33    2
4.   Southern Cal                (4-1)  215.0   29    3
5.   LSU                         (6-0)  207.4   32    4
6.   West Virginia               (5-1)  188.3   10   10
7.   Oregon St                   (3-3)  183.5   45    5
8.   Oregon                      (4-1)  178.1    5   51
9.   Arkansas                    (3-2)  169.3    6   41
10.  Arizona St                  (6-0)  168.6   27    8
11.  Florida                     (4-2)  168.2   15   16
12.  Ohio State                  (6-0)  163.5   83    1
13.  Texas Tech                  (5-1)  150.8    3   74
14.  Hawaii                      (6-0)  150.6    4   73
15.  Kansas                      (5-0)  148.4   13   27

BYU is still number one as they didn't play last week; we'll see if they can hold this spot. Boise State's snuffing of New Mexico State made their defense look great, but if NM State is in the process of correcting a statistical fluke, they might not maintain their position either. Ohio State is interesting too, #1 in defense but only #83 in offense. So far the 'D' has been enough to win games, and there might not be an offense in the Big Ten that can challenge them; but can they win a BCS bowl without a strong offense?

Yardage vs. Points results

Well a funny thing happened since I posted my predictions using Points vs. Yardage. Two funny things, actually. The first one is, I programmed an error into my automatic score-generating algorithm that affected both sets of predictions, so they don't reflect how the systems would work. The second funny thing is, the erroneous Points system was 67% against the spread! Across 50 games that's pretty impressive. Additionally, 8 of the 9 upsets it picked came true. It was 50% against the over/under. The erroneous yardage system picked about 50/50.

I should have known something was amiss when the Points system picked 39 underdogs! I corrected the results here, and give the results for the proper methods. Correct picks are in green, errors in red.

Favorite           Line  Underdog        Over   Points rating      Yardage Rating
at South Carolina  3.5   Kentucky        57.5   Kentucky -         South Carolina +
at Louisville     14.5   Utah            61.5   Utah +             Utah +
at Air Force       5.5   UNLV            44     Air Force -        Air Force -
at Alabama        10.5   Houston         56.5   Alabama +          HOUSTON +
Arizona State        9   at Wash St      63     Arizona St +       Arizona St -
Arkansas State     2.5   at LA-Monroe    57.5   Arkansas St -      Arkansas St -
at Army            6.5   Tulane          44     Army -             TULANE +
at Auburn          7.5   Vanderbilt      42.5   Auburn -           Auburn -
at Ball State     12.5   Central Mich    67.5   Ball St -          Ball St +
at Boston College   20   Bowling Green   57     Bowling Green +    Bowling Green +
at Clemson         5.5   Virginia Tech   40.5   Clemson +          Clemson +
Colorado           8.5   at Baylor       48     Colorado -         Colorado +
at Colorado State   13   San Diego St    58     Colorado St +      Colorado St +
at Florida State    18   NC State        45.5   Florida St -       NC State -
Georgia Tech         3   at Maryland     42     MARYLAND -         MARYLAND -
at Hawaii           39   Utah State      69     Utah State +       Hawaii +
at Illinois        2.5   Wisconsin       51.5   Illinois +         WISCONSIN +
at Indiana          14   Minnesota       67.5   Indiana +          Indiana +
at Kansas State      3   Kansas          55     KANSAS +           Kansas -
at Kent State        9   Miami  OH       48.5   Kent State -       Kent State +
at LSU               8   Florida         49     la st +            La st -
at LA-Lafayette      8   North Texas     67     LA-Lafayette -=    ===== +=
Miami (FL)         6.5   at N Carolina   41.5   N CAROLINA -       Miami -
at Michigan         31   Eastern Mich    45.5   E Michigan -       E Michigan -
at Michigan State 14.5   Northwestern    53     Michigan State +   Michigan State +
at Mississippi      13   Louisiana Tech  53.5   La Tech -          LA TECH +
at Mississippi St   19   UAB             50.5   alabama-birm +     Miss St +
at Missouri          7   Nebraska        68     Missouri +         NEBRASKA +
at Nevada          3.5   Fresno State    55.5   FRESNO STATE +     FRESNO STATE -
Northern Illinois  3.5   at Temple       53     TEMPLE -           TEMPLE +
Ohio                 5   at Buffalo      53.5   Ohio U +           BUFFALO -
Ohio State           7   at Purdue       52     Ohio St -          Ohio St -
Oklahoma            11   at Texas        57     Oklahoma +         Oklahoma -
at Oregon State      4   Arizona         54     ARIZONA -          Oregon State -
at Penn State      9.5   Iowa            39     Penn St -          Iowa -
at Rutgers         3.5   Cincinnati      52     CINCINNATI +       Rutgers +
at San Jose State    7   Idaho           51     Idaho -            IDAHO -
at Tennessee         1   Georgia         56.5   GEORGIA +          GEORGIA -
at Texas A&M       6.5   Oklahoma State  62     Oklahoma St +      Texas A&M +
at Texas Tech     24.5   Iowa State      66.5   Iowa State -       Iowa State -
Tulsa                3   at UTEP         72.5   Texas El Paso -    Tulsa +
UCF                3.5   at E Carolina   53.5   E Carolina +       Central Fla +
at UCLA           20.5   Notre Dame      48     ucla +             ucla -
at USC              40   Stanford        58     Stanford -         Stanford -
Virginia          10.5   at M Tenn       45.5   M Tennessee +      M Tennessee -
Wake Forest          7   at Duke         47.5   Wake Forest -      Wake Forest -
West Virginia     26.5   at Syracuse     56     West Va +          West VA +
at Western Mich    8.5   Akron           57     Akron -            Akron +
at Wyoming           3   TCU             40.5  =Wyoming -         =Wyoming -
at Boise State    22.5   New Mexico St   61.5   New Mexico St -    NEW MEXICO ST +

Points
Spread: 26 of 49 (53%)
Upsets: 6 of 8 picked occurred
Over/Under: 26 of 49 (53%)

Yardage
Spread: 21 of 48 (44%)
Upsets: 4 of 12 picked occurred
Overs vs. Unders: 27 of 49 (55%)

Common picks: 16 of 32 (50%)

Common over/unders: 17 of 30 (56.6%)

Common upsets:
Maryland over Georgia Tech
Fresno State over Nevada
Temple over Northern Illinois
Georgia over Tennessee

...and of course, the corrected system does much worse than the mistaken one. The Yardage system didn't do anything out of the ordinary, either, which was expected. Strangely it did better in the over/under, but not by a significant amount.

Joining the two together as confirmation of each other's picks didn't help either, except a little bit on the over/under. There weren't enough upsets picked to get a real look at that, so perhaps that's one area that the two might work in tandem, but 3 of 4 is no better than the 6 of 8 the Points system got on its own. Yardage alone was a bad predictor of upsets.

So I probably won't go through the work of calculating the yardage spreads again. Instead, I'll look at the fluke Points system and see how it does next week, using the correct Points system as a control.

Virginia Tech: 3 touchdown returns so far on Clemson

The Hokies have only 50 yards of offense so far (rushing and passing), but lead Clemson 24-3 in the 2nd quarter based on three touchdown returns (32-yard interception return by D.J. Parker, 82-yard punt return by Eddie Royal, and a 100+ yard kickoff return by Victor Harris). Another touchdown return was called back due to a penalty. According to my yardage analyses, Clemson should be dominating this game, and in total rushing and passing yards they're ahead by a 2-to-1 margin. But since this analysis doesn't take into account return yards or special teams play, it can't encompass Beamer Ball, Virginia Tech's special teams prowess (nor Clemson's return coverage ineptitude). This is the main reason I don't think it will have as much predictive value as the Points Power Rating, which takes into account any way in which a team scores. Most of the time, rushing and passing yards tell the story of the game, but there are many exceptions, like this game.

College Football Average Yardarge Analyses

I've made a number of pages (which are listed on the lower right sidebar) that hold my Yardage Analysis data. This way I can include the full lists, with information for each team, without having posts a mile long. The seven pages include:

A) Total yardage
B) Total offense
C) Total defense
D) Rushing offense
E) Passing offense
F) Rushing defense
G) Passing defense

The first page, Total yardage, is formed by subtracting C from B, of course; B is D + E, while C is F + G. There are links to the other related pages at the tops of the columns, so once you get into Total offense or Total defense, you can "sort" the columns for rushing and passing yards.

Here's a rundown of the data, starting with offense:

Total Offense Yardage Averages (Corrected for Schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Tulsa                       (3-1)  594.5 (  1)  199.1 ( 26)  395.4 (  5)
2.   Oregon                      (4-1)  585.0 (  2)  300.9 (  4)  284.0 ( 19)
3.   Hawaii                      (5-0)  560.8 (  3)   84.3 (110)  476.4 (  1)
4.   Louisville                  (3-2)  551.1 (  4)  128.5 ( 85)  422.6 (  3)
5.   Texas Tech                  (4-1)  538.8 (  5)   66.7 (116)  472.1 (  2)
6.   New Mexico St               (3-2)  533.8 (  6)  111.6 ( 96)  422.2 (  4)
7.   West Virginia               (4-1)  518.8 (  7)  321.5 (  3)  197.2 ( 85)
8.   Boston College              (5-0)  510.9 (  8)  138.6 ( 73)  372.2 (  6)
9.   Arkansas                    (2-2)  497.9 (  9)  340.7 (  2)  157.2 (111)
10.  Brigham Young               (3-2)  492.6 ( 10)  155.8 ( 59)  336.7 (  9)

No big surprises there, except who knew New Mexico State was such a potent offense? A quick check shows they rank 20th in raw stats, and evidently has played teams with an aggregate above-average defense. Teams that pass a lot tend to rank high, regardless of whether they win games, though every team here has a winning record. So let's check out the passing offense numbers:

Passing Offense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Hawaii                      (5-0)  560.8 (  3)   84.3 (110)  476.4 (  1)
2.   Texas Tech                  (4-1)  538.8 (  5)   66.7 (116)  472.1 (  2)
3.   Louisville                  (3-2)  551.1 (  4)  128.5 ( 85)  422.6 (  3)
4.   New Mexico St               (3-2)  533.8 (  6)  111.6 ( 96)  422.2 (  4)
5.   Tulsa                       (3-1)  594.5 (  1)  199.1 ( 26)  395.4 (  5)
6.   Boston College              (5-0)  510.9 (  8)  138.6 ( 73)  372.2 (  6)
7.   Arizona                     (2-3)  478.6 ( 15)  129.9 ( 84)  348.7 (  7)
8.   Nebraska                    (4-1)  489.9 ( 11)  150.9 ( 63)  339.0 (  8)
9.   Brigham Young               (3-2)  492.6 ( 10)  155.8 ( 59)  336.7 (  9)
10.  North Texas                 (0-4)  449.1 ( 30)  114.1 ( 93)  335.0 ( 10)

Lots of correlation to the Total Offense list, except North Texas doesn't have much of a running game to complement its passing. It's odd, just a few years ago, the Mean Green had one of the best rushing attacks in the country, with 2 of the nation's leading rushers on one team (Patrick Cobbs, NCAA leader in 2003, and Jamario Thomas, NCAA leader in 2004). Speaking of rushing offense:

Rushing Offense Yardage Averages (Corrected for Schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Navy                        (3-2)  426.7 ( 43)  345.9 (  1)   80.8 (121)
2.   Arkansas                    (2-2)  497.9 (  9)  340.7 (  2)  157.2 (111)
3.   West Virginia               (4-1)  518.8 (  7)  321.5 (  3)  197.2 ( 85)
4.   Oregon                      (4-1)  585.0 (  2)  300.9 (  4)  284.0 ( 19)
5.   Texas A&M                   (4-1)  457.8 ( 25)  283.3 (  5)  174.4 ( 94)
6.   Illinois                    (4-1)  362.4 ( 74)  255.9 (  6)  106.4 (120)
7.   Louisiana-Lafayette         (0-5)  405.1 ( 53)  240.7 (  7)  164.4 (108)
8.   UCLA                        (4-1)  487.7 ( 14)  239.6 (  8)  248.1 ( 41)
9.   Air Force                   (3-2)  417.1 ( 48)  233.7 (  9)  183.4 ( 90)
10.  Oklahoma                    (4-1)  476.5 ( 16)  229.5 ( 10)  247.0 ( 43)

Navy's adjusted numbers put it slightly ahead of Arkansas for the top spot (their spots are reversed from the raw data). Navy is almost completely run-oriented—their passing game ranks dead last in the country. Louisiana-Lafayette lives (or dies, as the case may be) by the run also.

Now on to defense:

Total Defense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   LSU                         (5-0)  214.3 (  1)   51.1 (  6)  163.2 ( 13)
2.   Ohio State                  (5-0)  218.2 (  2)   40.3 (  4)  177.9 ( 20)
3.   Oklahoma                    (4-1)  218.8 (  3)   62.6 (  9)  156.2 (  7)
4.   Brigham Young               (3-2)  226.4 (  4)   57.9 (  7)  168.4 ( 15)
5.   Southern Cal                (4-0)  230.4 (  5)   71.5 ( 13)  158.9 (  9)
6.   Colorado                    (3-2)  239.2 (  6)   96.2 ( 21)  143.0 (  3)
7.   Florida St                  (3-1)  246.6 (  7)   51.1 (  5)  195.5 ( 37)
8.   Oregon St                   (2-3)  247.9 (  8)   33.6 (  1)  214.2 ( 55)
9.   Arizona St                  (5-0)  256.8 (  9)   75.5 ( 16)  181.3 ( 23)
10.  South Florida               (4-0)  257.1 ( 10)   70.9 ( 12)  186.2 ( 26)

LSU holds on to the #1 spot by adjusted yardage, even though Ohio State passed them in overall scoring defense this week. BYU is only #41 in raw yardage defensively, but they held Arizona to 23 yards rushing, and UCLA to just 236 total yards, so that when adjusted they look much better (even making up for Tulsa's 490 passing yards against them, which is still 100 yards below Tulsa's adjusted average).

Passing Defense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   SE Louisiana St (I-AA)      (0-3)  339.5 ( 42)  239.7 (116)   99.7 (  1)
2.   North Carolina St           (1-4)  337.1 ( 39)  235.5 (115)  101.6 (  2)
3.   Colorado                    (3-2)  239.2 (  6)   96.2 ( 21)  143.0 (  3)
4.   Fresno St                   (2-2)  281.8 ( 14)  130.9 ( 41)  150.8 (  4)
5.   Auburn                      (3-2)  267.7 ( 11)  116.7 ( 32)  151.0 (  5)
6.   Houston                     (2-2)  303.7 ( 21)  149.4 ( 61)  154.2 (  6)
7.   Oklahoma                    (4-1)  218.8 (  3)   62.6 (  9)  156.2 (  7)
8.   South Carolina              (4-1)  326.6 ( 34)  170.1 ( 78)  156.4 (  8)
9.   Southern Cal                (4-0)  230.4 (  5)   71.5 ( 13)  158.9 (  9)
10.  Notre Dame                  (0-5)  362.4 ( 55)  201.4 (103)  161.0 ( 10)

What stands out here? Other than SE Louisiana, which is still listed among Div I-A since they've played 3 I-A teams but won't be listed next week. Notre Dame is #10 in passing defense? Actually they rank #7 when unadjusted, so there actually is an element of their game that is working. Or maybe they're so easy to run on, teams don't have to bother to pass? (Which is clearly the case with SE Louisiana)

Rushing Defense Yardage Averages (corrected for schedule):
Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Oregon St                   (2-3)  247.9 (  8)   33.6 (  1)  214.2 ( 55)
2.   Florida                     (4-1)  284.0 ( 16)   34.9 (  2)  249.0 ( 86)
3.   Cincinnati                  (5-0)  318.6 ( 30)   35.3 (  3)  283.3 (106)
4.   Ohio State                  (5-0)  218.2 (  2)   40.3 (  4)  177.9 ( 20)
5.   Florida St                  (3-1)  246.6 (  7)   51.1 (  5)  195.5 ( 37)
6.   LSU                         (5-0)  214.3 (  1)   51.1 (  6)  163.2 ( 13)
7.   Brigham Young               (3-2)  226.4 (  4)   57.9 (  7)  168.4 ( 15)
8.   Boise St                    (3-1)  317.3 ( 27)   58.2 (  8)  259.0 ( 97)
9.   Oklahoma                    (4-1)  218.8 (  3)   62.6 (  9)  156.2 (  7)
10.  UCLA                        (4-1)  323.1 ( 32)   66.7 ( 10)  256.3 ( 93)

Oregon State, on the other hand, has a great rushing defense, and their passing defense isn't completely terrible, so in this case it's probably a reflection of actual quality. The Beavers rank third unadjusted for schedule.

Finally, here are the top 25 teams who are outgaining their opponents in total yardage:

Total Yardage Differential (Corrected for Schedule) thru 9/29/2007
Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   Brigham Young               (3-2)  266.1   10    4
2.   Oklahoma                    (4-1)  257.6   16    3
3.   West Virginia               (4-1)  232.8    7   18
4.   LSU                         (5-0)  224.9   33    1
5.   Southern Cal                (4-0)  224.5   27    5
6.   Arizona St                  (5-0)  211.5   18    9
7.   Hawaii                      (5-0)  203.3    3   53
8.   Colorado                    (3-2)  201.5   32    6
9.   Oregon                      (4-1)  199.7    2   66
10.  Florida                     (4-1)  182.7   19   16
11.  Oregon St                   (2-3)  182.3   39    8
12.  Arkansas                    (2-2)  179.6    9   29
13.  UCLA                        (4-1)  164.6   14   32
14.  Houston                     (2-2)  159.8   20   21
15.  Tulsa                       (3-1)  146.8    1  100
16.  California                  (5-0)  144.8   34   19
17.  Alabama                     (3-2)  139.2   13   48
18.  Arizona                     (2-3)  139.2   15   41
19.  Ohio State                  (5-0)  138.5   76    2
20.  South Florida               (4-0)  135.6   58   10
21.  Clemson                     (4-1)  129.2   17   43
22.  Texas Tech                  (4-1)  123.9    5   88
23.  New Mexico St               (3-2)  123.0    6   86
24.  New Mexico                  (3-2)  122.3   36   26
25.  Colorado St                 (0-4)  121.7   24   38

BYU is the surprise leader; perhaps they're better than their record, or not—they don't show up very high in corrected scoring differential (they're 29th), so either they somehow gain lots of "garbage" yards and don't score, or their opponents find it easy to get into the end zone and don't need to rack up a lot of yards doing so. Also, there is the chance that their opponents' return yards are killing them, or perhaps their special teams are particularly poor?

New Mexico State and New Mexico are in the same boat to a lesser degree—they're winning the yardage game but not always the scoring game. Colorado State is noteworthy too, as they haven't won a game yet. But a quick look at their scores shows they've lost several tight games, and to good opponents. They might be a pretty decent team that's had poor luck and a tough schedule. They're 56th in the Points power rating, the best of any winless team.