SportsRatings: College Football

Committee update elevates Miami, hurting Indiana (?)

Weird, sometimes simulation results are weird and unexpected. Indiana looked like a lock before the Committee results when the AP placed them at #10. Then the Committee put them at....#10 and they slipped out of the "top 12" !

The Hoosiers still show a solid 77% chance of making the Playoff, but that's down from an interim 99% following Saturday's games. If their Committee ranking matched the AP's, what changed?

Looks like it was the Committee putting Miami at #6 instead of #8. In both scenarios, about half the time only one of Miami and SMU makes the Playoff. But when Miami is at #8 and SMU at #9, Indiana pretty much always finishes ahead of one of the two. Not so when Miami starts at #6. That one spot is enough to push Indiana down, but that doesn't explain why Alabama and Tennessee are both ahead of them now. Butterfly effect? 

In any case, here are the updated odds. Indiana could be in the "blue" section if you go by Playoff%, as they're still in better shape that both Tennessee (74.5%) and SMU (64.3%), so clearly these teams were very close in average position. Alabama's odds jumped by 20%, so they were the main beneficiary of Indiana's unexplained fall. In the end it makes a bit more sense: Indiana lost 38-15 and lost about 7.7% from last week's 84.6%. Maybe it's the 99% figure that should be examined. Alabama ends up losing only 12.8% from last week's value, and Ole Miss (up a spot in the Committee relative to the AP) drops from 65% to 14.3% instead of 5.0%.

                          Rank                   Playoff Odds   AP/CFPC          LW
 LW  Rnk Team           AP CFPC  Conf   Rec     w/AP    w/CFPC   %chg   Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Ohio State      2   2   B10    10-1    >99.9    >99.9    0.0    24.5   12.4
  1   2. Oregon          1   1   B10    11-0    >99.9    >99.9    0.0     4.2    1.7
  4   3. Texas           3   3   SEC    10-1     99.5     99.0   -0.5    19.6    3.1
  6   4. Georgia         6   7   SEC     9-2     96.8     97.2   +0.4     8.8    0.4
  5   5. Notre Dame      5   5   Ind    10-1     99.7     97.2   -2.5    17.9    6.5
 10   6. Penn State      4   4   B10    10-1     98.1     97.1   -1.0     2.3    0.5
  7   7. Miami FL        8   6   ACC    10-1     84.8     92.2   +7.4     3.4    0.4
 11   8. Tennessee       7   8   SEC     9-2     73.6     74.5   +0.9     5.0    1.9
 13   9. SMU             9   9   ACC    10-1     73.2     64.3   -8.9     1.7    0.9
  3  10. Alabama        13  13   SEC     8-3     65.1     85.3  +20.2     6.6  -14.4
  8  11. Indiana        10  10   B10    10-1     99.0     76.9  -22.1     3.7   -1.7
  9  12. Mississippi    15  14   SEC     8-3      5.0     14.3   +9.3     0.6  -11.8
 12  13. Boise St       11  11   MWC    10-1     65.1     64.2   -0.9     0.3    0.0
 14  14. Brigham Young  19  19   B12     9-2     41.2     45.0   +3.8     0.4    0.2
 15  15. South Carolina 16  15   SEC     8-3      0.3      0.3    0.0     0.0   -0.1
 22  16. Arizona St     14  16   B12     9-2     35.2     34.3   -0.9     0.2    0.1
 18  17. Tulane         18  17   AAc     9-2     31.7     32.9   +1.2     0.4    0.2
 17  18. Clemson        12  12   ACC     9-2      5.0      1.6   -3.4     0.1   -0.2
 21  19. Iowa St        17  18   B12     9-2     20.1     14.7   -5.4     0.3    0.0
 19  20. Texas A&M      20  20   SEC     8-3     <0.1     <0.1    0.0     0.0   -0.1
 23  21. UNLV           21  22   MWC     9-2      6.4      6.5   +0.1     0.0    0.0
 16  22. Colorado       23  25   B12     8-3     <0.1     <0.1    0.0    <0.1   -0.3
 20  23. Army           25  --   AAc     9-1      0.3      0.2   -0.1     0.0    0.0
 29  24. Missouri       24  21   SEC     8-3      0.0      0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0
 34  25. Illinois       22  23   B10     8-3      0.0      0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0

Other than Miami, only a handful of teams are ranked more than 1 spot away from the AP poll. Arizona State is two spots lower, as is Colorado. Missouri is three spots higher and Army fell out. K-State comes in at #24 on the Committee (unranked in AP).

So once again, we basically have a cut and paste job from the Committee. Sigh.

Will Kansas make it to a bowl game after all? What about Louisiana-Monroe?

This is a tale of two teams, one (Kansas) whose bowl situation looked hopeless and another (ULM) who seemed to have a bowl in the bank. Their fortunes have completely reversed since mid-season of 2024.

Kansas Jayhawks bowl odds

 

Kansas hit rock bottom at 2-6 after losing a close one at K-State. They needed to win 4 straight against a very tough slate of opponents: Iowa State, BYU, Colorado, and Baylor.

The Jayhawks' bowl qualification odds were just 1.8%.

Rank Team   Weekend result            Rec   Chalk   Average  Playoff%  chg%  Bowl%   Chg%
# 33 Kansas      Pre-season           0-0    8-4    7.5- 4.5   11.9    0.0   76.0   +0.0
# 28 Kansas Beat Lindenwood 48-3      1-0   10-2    7.6- 4.4   14.1   +2.2   77.4   +1.4
# 46 Kansas Lost at Illinois 23-17    1-1    9-3    6.7- 5.3    6.0   -8.1   68.5   -8.9
# 68 Kansas Lost to UNLV 23-20        1-2    8-4    5.5- 6.5    1.3   -4.7   49.4  -19.1
# 87 Kansas Lost at W Virginia 32-28  1-3    4-8    4.7- 7.3    0.2   -1.1   33.4  -16.0
# 94 Kansas Lost to TCU 38-27         1-4    3-9    3.7- 8.3   <0.1   -0.1   13.8  -19.6
#102 Kansas Lost at Arizona St 35-31  1-5    3-9    3.2- 8.8    0.0   -0.1    4.5   -9.3
#107 Kansas      Did not play         1-5    2-10   2.9- 9.1    0.0    0.0    2.4   -2.1
#100 Kansas Beat Houston 42-14        2-5    2-10   3.3- 8.7    0.0    0.0    3.5   +1.1
# 93 Kansas Lost to Kansas St 29-27   2-6    2-10   3.3- 8.7    0.0    0.0    1.8   -1.7
# 89 Kansas      Did not play         2-6    2-10   3.4- 8.6    0.0    0.0    1.9   +0.1 
# 79 Kansas Beat Iowa State 45-36     3-6    3-9    4.2- 7.8    0.0    0.0    6.3   +4.4
# 59 Kansas Beat BYU 17-13 (road)     4-6    4-8    4.8- 7.2    0.0    0.0   17.4  +11.1
# 60 Kansas Beat Colorado 37-21       5-6    5-7    5.4- 6.6    0.0    0.0   42.8  +25.4

Pre-season, the Jayhawks were expected to have a solid year and probably get to a bowl game even in the very-parity (paritied?) Big Twelve. After beating Lindenwood (who?) they were just over 75% odds and even had a 14% chance to make the Playoff, but close losses to Illinois and UNLV knocked them just below 50% at 1-3. 

Another loss to West Virginia put them at 1 in 3 odds, and the TCU loss put them at 1-4 and 13.8%, about what their Playoff Odds were at the beginning of the season. It was looked bleak. Kansas very nearly upset Arizona State but fell 35-31, their 4th loss within 6 points and they were down to 4.5%.

They even fell during the off week as reality set in, down to 2.4%. Their first D-I win was a blowout victory over Houston, and their odds ticked up to 3.5%. They almost upset Kansas State—their 5th "almost"—but at 2-6 their bowl odds were 1.8%. But they were unquestionably playing good football now.

And so the turnaround started.

Facing 7-1 Iowa State the Jayhawks got their first big win. At 3-6 it didn't mean much: they gained just 4.4%, up to 6.3%. Odds were still stacked against them big-time.

Next up: BYU. The Cougars were undefeated (9-0) and playing at home. Yet the Jayhawks prevailed, 17-13, stopping the Cougars short at the end. That was worth another 11.1% to 17.4%.

They needed to beat a hot Colorado team next, and they did quite easily, 37-21. That more than doubled their bowl odds to 42.8%, a figure that doesn't really reflect how well Kansas is playing right now.

Only Baylor is left, a road game. Can the Jayhawks do it? Go from 2-6 to 6-6 for a bowl game? We'll find out this weekend.

Louisiana-Monroe bowl odds

If there's a team that is the anti-Kansas this year it's Louisiana-Monroe (ULM). The Warhawks started strong and were 5-1 with a 95.8% chance to make a bowl game when it started to go South.

Rank Team   Weekend result            Rec   Chalk   Average  Playoff%  chg%  Bowl%   Chg%
#132 ULM         Pre-season           0-0    1-11   2.8- 9.2    0.0   -0.1   13.6   -0.0
#131 ULM  Beat Jackson State 30-14    1-0    1-11   3.2- 8.8    0.0    0.0   13.3   -0.3
#122 ULM  Beat UAB 32-6               2-0    3-9    4.4- 7.6   <0.1   +0.1   26.8  +13.5
#113 ULM         Did not play         2-0    3-9    4.6- 7.4   <0.1    0.0   30.1   +3.3
#103 ULM  Lost at Texas 51-3          2-1    3-9    5.0- 7.0   <0.1    0.0   37.3   +7.2
# 88 ULM  Beat Troy 13-9              3-1    4-8    6.0- 6.0   <0.1    0.0   57.7  +20.4
# 69 ULM  Beat James Madison 21-19    4-1    5-7    7.2- 4.8    0.2   +0.1   87.0  +29.3
# 56 ULM  Beat Southern Miss 38-21    5-1    7-5    7.8- 4.2    0.2    0.0   95.8   +8.8
# 72 ULM         Did not play         5-1    7-5    7.5- 4.5   <0.1   -0.1   93.6   -2.2
# 86 ULM  Lost at S. Alabama 46-17    5-2    6-6    6.5- 5.5    0.0   -0.1   82.6  -11.0
# 83 ULM  Lost at Marshall 28-23      5-3    6-6    6.5- 5.5    0.0    0.0   85.6   +3.0
# 90 ULM  Lost to Texas St. 38-17     5-4    6-6    6.0- 6.0    0.0    0.0   76.7   -8.9
# 86 ULM  Lost at Auburn 48-14        5-5    6-6    5.9- 6.1    0.0    0.0   68.2   -8.5
# 96 ULM  Lost at Arkansas St 28-21   5-6    5-7    5.3- 6.7    0.0    0.0   25.1  -43.1

ULM started the year with just about the lowest expectations possible: #132 out of 134 teams and just a 13.6% chance to make a bowl game even with a very week schedule. Beating FCS Jackson State didn't improve their lot, but beating UAB did and after their bye week they were above 30% bowl odds.

Losing to Texas by 48 only improved those odds; as the #113 team, staying within 7 touchdowns on the road was a boon. The Troy win was what boosted the Warhawks above 50% for the first time; at 3-1 they only had to go 3-5 to make a bowl game and their cumulative projection was 6.0-6.0. Still, they were only favored in one game going forward so they'd need some upsets.

They got 2 upsets over their next two games, beating James Madison—a major upset—and Southern Miss (minor). That put them at 5-1, with a 95.8% bowl chance and even a 0.2% shot at the Playoff!

ULM only had to win 1 of their next 6, and they were favored to win 2 of those, and projected to win 2 or 3. But South Alabama rained on their parade, beating them 46-17, knocking their odds to 82.6%. They were not expected to beat Marshall, and keeping it within 5 points on the road was a plus that put them back up a bit at 85.6%.

The Texas State loss put them at 5-4, still at 76.7%. Auburn beat them 48-14 but they were still at 68.2% because they definitely weren't supposed to win that one.

But the Arkansas State loss had a big effect, plunging the Warhawks from 68.2% to 25.1%. That was the one they were supposed to win, and they didn't. 

They've gone from 95.8% to 25.1% with one game left: rival Louisiana-Lafayette. They have home field advantage but do they have the motivation after the slide? Louisiana-Lafayette needs a win to seal their Sun Belt title game appearance; ULM needs a win for a bowl game.

Who will get the job done? Kansas? ULM? Both?

Trends favor Kansas and not ULM, and the oddsmakers agree: Kansas is favored by a point while ULM is almost a 10 point underdog.

Week 13 Post-mortem: Finally some chaos! Bama, Ole Miss tumble

Ohio State vs. Indiana was the marquee game but that result was overshadowed by upset losses by Alabama and Mississippi. Who benefitted most from their fall?

First we should answer, who got hurt most and in that case, it's clearly Mississippi. The Rebels, who lost at Florida 24-17, fell in our projection from 9th to 13th but more importantly, their odds of making the Playoff fell from 85% to just 5%. Basically, that 85% was the odds they could win out against the Gators and Mississippi State (a virtual lock game) and finish 10-2. But that third loss kills them. Alabama had a worse loss—24-3 at 5-6 Oklahoma—and fell a lot farther, from #3 to #11, but their odds remained at 65.1%, equal to Boise State's chances. Alabama's résumé is just better, with wins over Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri. If a current 3-loss team makes it, it will be Alabama. But who will open up a slot for them? Tennessee , who gained 16% to re-enter the Projected Playoff, might lose at Vanderbilt, but they beat Alabama and might stay above them. A better path is if the ACC is a 1-bid league. Miami is the favorite there but SMU is a solid #2 having moved up to #10 with a 41.5% gain, making the Mustangs the biggest beneficiary of the SEC teams' collapse. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Ohio State          *B10   10-1  11-1  11.0- 1.0   >99.9   +1.1   24.5  +11.8
  1   2. Oregon               B10   11-0  12-0  11.9- 0.1   >99.9    0.0    4.2   +1.6
  4   3. Texas                SEC   10-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    99.5   +1.1   19.6   +4.1
  5   4. Notre Dame           Ind   10-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    99.7  +16.3   17.9   +7.7
  6   5. Georgia             *SEC    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    96.8   -0.3    8.8   +0.4
 10   6. Penn State           B10   10-1  11-1  11.0- 1.0    98.1  +19.2    2.3   +0.8
  7   7. Miami FL            *ACC   10-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    84.8   +8.5    3.4    0.0
  8   8. Indiana              B10   10-1  11-1  11.0- 1.0    99.0  +14.4    3.7   -0.6
 11   9. Tennessee            SEC    9-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    73.6  +15.8    5.0   +2.2
 13  10. SMU                  ACC   10-1  11-1  10.9- 1.1    73.2  +41.5    1.7   +1.3
  3  11. Alabama              SEC    8-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1    65.1  -33.0    6.6  -16.6
 12  12. Boise St            *MWC   10-1  11-1  11.0- 1.0    65.1   -3.4    0.3    0.0
  9  13. Mississippi          SEC    8-3   9-3   9.0- 3.0     5.0  -79.9    0.6  -12.7

Another team that benefitted? Indiana. Despite losing big at Ohio State, 38-15, the Hoosiers jumped to near-lock status at 99%. With just a home game vs. Purdue to go, they should finish 11-1 and that's good enough now that two 2-loss SEC teams got cleared away. Without those losses they would be much closer to the 75%-ish level of Miami and SMU. Penn State also cleared a hurdle at Minnesota (by 1 point) and travels to Maryland; unless the struggling Terps make that a trap game by declaring it "their bowl game" the Lions will be 11-1 and easily in the Playoff.

Notre Dame pretty much punched their ticket too by clobbering previously undefeated Army. Isn't it time the Irish, who were forgotten after the Northern Illinois loss, be declared a solid National title possibility? We show them third-most-likely to win it all. 2nd-most-likely is Texas, who can reach the SEC final by beating Texas A&M, but will have to play Georgia in Atlanta. Surprisingly the Bulldogs are the only team in the top ten to shed Playoff Odds, probably because they struggled a bit with UMass which puts the Georgia Tech game into slightly more doubt. The only way Georgia can miss the Playoff is by going 9-4. At the top of the chart is Ohio State, favored in the rematch with #2 Oregon, and both are Playoff locks though maybe if they both lose next week (to Michigan and USC) then the Big Ten title game loser has a tiny risk.

The SEC wasn't the only conference to collapse due to upsets: the Big Twelve has big trouble last weekend with the top two contenders being upset. BYU fell for the 2nd straight week, this time to Arizona State (28-23), who jumped from #22 to #15, right behind the Cougars who remained at #14. ASU added 24.5% but BYU only dropped 0.3%, and that's because main competitor Colorado lost to giant-killer Kansas, 37-21. The Buffs shed 31.5% and most of that went to Arizona State but BYU was helped, too, offsetting their own misfortune. Iowa State got a bump, too, and with four teams with 2 losses and EIGHT teams mathematically in the running for the title game, but BYU vs. ASU is the most likely scenario and BYU would be slightly favored on a neutral field. And there's a very slight chance the Big Twelve doesn't get one of the auto-bids, thanks to the Mountain West and American Athletic.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 14  14. Brigham Young       *B12    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    41.2   -0.3    0.4    0.0
 22  15. Arizona St           B12    9-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    35.2  +24.5    0.2   +0.1
 18  16. Tulane              *AAc    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    31.7   +5.7    0.4   +0.1
 17  17. Clemson              ACC    9-2   9-3   9.5- 2.5     5.0   -1.6    0.1   -0.1
 15  18. South Carolina       SEC    8-3   9-3   8.5- 3.5     0.3   -0.4    0.0   -0.1
 21  19. Iowa St              B12    9-2  10-2   9.6- 2.4    20.1   +7.1    0.3   +0.1
 19  20. Texas A&M            SEC    8-3   8-4   8.2- 3.8    <0.1   -1.9    0.0   -0.1
 16  21. Colorado             B12    8-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1    <0.1  -31.5   <0.1   -0.2
 23  22. UNLV                 MWC    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1     6.4   +2.1    0.0    0.0
 20  23. Army                 AAc    9-1  10-1   9.9- 1.1     0.3   -3.8    0.0    0.0
 29  24. Missouri             SEC    8-3   9-3   8.6- 3.4     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 34  25. Illinois             B10    8-3   9-3   8.7- 3.3     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

Boise State is in pole position for the 4th or 5th auto-bid, with the Big Twelve currently taking the 5th non-bye slot. But when all is said and done the Big Twelve champ probably finishes ahead of Boise State; the many possibilities are holding the top teams back. But Tulane is shockingly close to the top Big Twelve teams and if they win out and the Big Twelve has another carnage week, we might see them shut out! UNLV still has a reasonable chance to make the Playoff with a MWC title game win, but they still need to get there first. Army's odd went from a low 4.1% to a microscopic 0.3%; their path? Beat Tulane in the AAC title game and hope for losses across the board in the Big 12 and for longshot Colorado State to win the Mountain West.

Texas A&M's odds above are clearly low since they can make the SEC title game with an upset of Texas and get in the Playoff by beating Georgia. My system doesn't try to figure out the tiebreakers for the conference title games so that possibility isn't viable, hence the <0.1% odds. In any case, their loss to Auburn made that their only path. Missouri re-enters the top 25 but they have no chance, nor does Illinois who enters our projection for the first time this season. #17 Clemson and #18 South Carolina actually play this weekend, a game that could kill Clemson's slim chance but won't help South Carolina's even slimmer hopes.

Outside the top 25 there are no teams that have any realistic chance, maybe Kansas State can leverage their slim chance at the Big Twelve title game to their favor if they beat Iowa State. I'll wait to see what happens in the Big Twelve instead of worrying about the tiebreaker. Projected Sun Belt winner Louisiana doesn't have a realistic shot any more; James Madison sort of did but they lost again and they can't win the conference. Ohio and Jacksonville State are favored to win the MAC and CUSA but that doesn't have Playoff ramifications. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 28  26. Kansas St            B12    8-3   8-4   8.4- 3.6    <0.1   -0.6  100.0    0.0
 30  27. Louisiana-Lafayette *SUNw   9-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3     0.0   -0.1  100.0    0.0
 25  29. Washington St        P12    8-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0
 24  30. LSU                  SEC    7-4   8-4   7.6- 4.4     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0
 50  32. Ohio U.             *MAC    8-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0
 26  37. James Madison        SUNe   8-3   9-3   8.6- 3.4     0.0   -0.2  100.0    0.0
 66  42. Oklahoma             SEC    6-5   6-6   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0  100.0  +58.3
 62  53. Boston College       ACC    6-5   7-5   6.6- 5.4     0.0    0.0  100.0  +23.1
 65  54. Jacksonville St     *CUSA   8-3   8-4   8.4- 3.6     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0
 71  57. West Virginia        B12    6-5   6-6   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0  100.0  +36.0

Oklahoma's shocking win over Alabama punched their bowl game ticket; beforehand they were at just 42% odds of beating either Alabama or LSU. Speaking of LSU, the Tigers and Washington State, long-term occupants of our Projected Final Top 25, both lost and fell out. Boston College and West Virginia both got their 6th wins with a game to spare.

Who is causing all this carnage in the Big Twelve anyway? Well Kansas is a big culprit. The Jayhawks were once at 1.8% bowl game odds and after three upset wins they're at 43%. Given how they're playing they will probably be favored to win at Baylor (let me check: yes, Kansas by 1 point). Every other team below that gained bowl odds did so by reaching the 6-win mark: USC, Nebraska, Michigan, and Calfornia are all 6-5 now.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 59  60. Kansas               B12    5-6   5-7   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0   42.8  +25.4
 48  63. Southern Cal         B10    6-5   6-6   6.2- 5.8     0.0    0.0  100.0  +20.5
 52  65. Cincinnati           B12    5-6   6-6   5.6- 6.4     0.0    0.0   55.8  -18.8
 72  69. Nebraska             B10    6-5   6-6   6.2- 5.8     0.0    0.0  100.0  +42.2
 69  71. Michigan             B10    6-5   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0    0.0  100.0  +23.7
 75  76. UCLA                 B10    4-7   5-7   4.8- 7.2     0.0    0.0    0.0  -23.0
 58  77. Central Florida      B12    4-7   5-7   4.7- 7.3     0.0    0.0    0.0  -45.7
 61  78. Wisconsin            B10    5-6   5-7   5.5- 6.5     0.0    0.0   48.9  -30.1
 74  81. California           ACC    6-5   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0    0.0  100.0  +10.3
 79  82. North Texas          AAc    5-6   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.0    0.0   75.4  -16.0

UCLA and UCF lost all their bowl odds with their 7th losses. But Cincinnati, Wisconsin, and North Texas have one more shot. We favor the Bearcats at home against TCU but the oddsmakers don't; Wisconsin is in about a 50/50 game hosting Minnesota (oddsmakers have the Badgers by 2); and North Texas should beat Temple despite playing on the road.

Below, most teams lost bowl odds, including Old Dominion and Northwestern who are out of luck now. Everyone else has hope: Western Michigan faces Eastern Michigan, so one if them is guaranteed a bowl bid. As you can see by the bowl odds, the Broncos are favored 68.9% to 31.1% to win the game. Virginia is given a puncher's chance to win at Virginia Tech; Coastal Carolina was in good shape last week but lost to Georgia Southern, now they have to win at Georgia State; and ULM lost their 5th straight and now must beat rival ULL (Lousiana-Lafayette) to get a sixth win. ULM is the anti-Kansas, their bowl odds were sky-high several weeks ago.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 78  85. Old Dominion         SUNe   4-7   5-7   4.8- 7.2     0.0    0.0    0.0  -47.3
108  86. Appalachian St       SUNe   5-5   5-6   5.2- 5.8     0.0    0.0   22.5  +18.9
 85  88. Western Michigan     MAC    5-6   6-6   5.7- 6.3     0.0    0.0   68.9  -14.6
 82  89. Virginia             ACC    5-6   5-7   5.1- 6.9     0.0    0.0   13.9  -20.0
 84  91. Coastal Carolina     SUNe   5-6   5-7   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0   44.2  -32.8
 97  92. Fresno St            MWC    6-5   6-6   6.2- 5.8     0.0    0.0  100.0  +30.0
 98  95. Texas-San Antonio    AAc    6-5   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0    0.0  100.0  +17.6
 86  96. Louisiana-Monroe     SUNw   5-6   5-7   5.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0   25.1  -43.1
 94 103. Eastern Michigan     MAC    5-6   5-7   5.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0   31.1  -43.2
 95 104. Northwestern         B10    4-7   4-8   4.3- 7.7     0.0    0.0    0.0  -10.2

Fresno State and UTSA bucked the trend by getting their 6th wins, but the odds were well in their favor before last weekend anyway. Appalachian State also improved their lot by upsetting James Madison 34-20. The Mountaineers were down to just 3.6% odds, needing two wins on their 11-game schedule, and it comes down to the Georgia Southern game where we give them a 22.5% shot. Oddsmakers have them just a 2 1/2 point road underdog though.

Why do we have the Committee? Redux; post-meeting week 12 projection

Let's just use the AP poll, since the Committee sometimes makes a worse version of it these days. 

AKA, post-Committee meeting projected Final Top 25 for week 12, 2024:

Both the AP and Committee had do decide how to handle Georgia and Mississippi, as the Bulldogs beat Tennessee but lost the week before decisively to the Rebels. The AP decided to move Georgia to #8 above #9 Ole Miss, but the Committee fixed that by keeping Georgia at #10. So the AP has Georgia rated more fairly but not relative to Mississippi. And with the Bulldogs 2 spots lower per Committee, they slide below Notre Dame in our projection of the final Committee poll, but at 97.1% it hardly matters. With UMass and Georgia Tech left they should finish 10-2 and are unlikely to make the SEC title game (but who knows) and don't need it. Mississippi got the worst of the deal, slipping to #9 from Sunday's #7 but their Playoff Odds were about the same. Alabama moved back ahead of Texas, too, but they were neck and neck and Bama wins the SEC more often.

The top seven in both polls are the same, but the Committee is friendlier to Miami who was #10 in our Sunday update but is #7 here, at 76% instead of 66%. The Committee's view of Miami gives them some breathing room if they don't win the ACC. The scrambling of the SEC teams for some reason bumped Indiana up a spot and Penn State down 3 spots to #10. Tennessee was one spot lower per the Committee and it knocked their Playoff Odds down even further, from 80.4% last week to 70.2% Sunday to 57.8% today. The Committee's ranking hurt them worse than their loss to Georgia!

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team         CFPC/AP   Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Oregon         1/1     B10   11-0  12-0  11.9- 0.1    99.9   +0.6    2.6   -1.1
  1   2. Ohio State     2/2    *B10    9-1  11-1  10.7- 1.3    98.8   +1.1   12.7   -0.9
  3   3. Alabama        7/7    *SEC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    98.1   +1.7   23.2   +0.1
  5   4. Texas          3/3     SEC    9-1  11-1  10.7- 1.3    98.4   +7.0   15.5   +1.0
  4   5. Notre Dame     6/6     Ind    9-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    83.4   -8.3   10.2   -2.7
 11   6. Georgia       10/8     SEC    8-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    97.1  +36.0    8.4   +4.0
  8   7. Miami FL       8/11   *ACC    9-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    76.3   +6.4    3.4   +0.3
  6   8. Indiana        5/5     B10   10-0  11-1  11.3- 0.7    84.6   +0.9    4.3   -0.8
 12   9. Mississippi    9/9     SEC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    84.9   +8.5   13.3   +3.1
  9  10. Penn State     4/4     B10    9-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    78.9   +5.8    1.5   +0.2
  7  11. Tennessee     11/10    SEC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    57.8  -22.6    2.8   -3.0
 13  12. Boise St      12/12   *MWC    9-1  11-1  10.9- 1.1    68.5   -0.3    0.3    0.0
 14  13. SMU           13/13    ACC    9-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    31.7   -2.5    0.4   -0.2
 10  14. Brigham Young 14/14   *B12    9-1  10-2  10.4- 1.6    41.5  -32.2    0.4   -0.1

Boise State was #12 in both and SMU #13 in both but the Broncos are ahead of the Mustangs in the update (SMU had jumped Boise on Sunday's interim update). Neither team's odds changed much. BYU is for some odd reason behind SMU (whom they beat this season) in BOTH polls. The Committee's job is to correct mistakes like this, not parrot the AP poll, but here we are. They actually TALK about these things amongst each other!

The lower portion of the top 25 is almost exactly the same between the polls, meaning the Committee just has no opinions of its own, or sees no reason to actually analyze teams. The polls are identical from #12 to #17, but the AP has Army #18. The Committee had Army #24 last week and the Knights were IDLE and the Committee still moves them up to #19 because they are now following the AP instead of leading like they did in years past.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team         CFPC/AP   Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 16  15. S. Carolina   18/18    SEC    7-3   9-3   8.5- 3.5     0.7   -0.2   <0.1    0.0
 19  16. Colorado      16/16    B12    8-2  10-2   9.5- 2.5    31.6  +15.1    0.3   +0.2
 20  17. Clemson       17/17    ACC    8-2   9-3   9.5- 2.5     6.6   +3.6    0.2   +0.1
 23  18. Tulane        20/20   *AAc    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    26.0  +18.3    0.3   +0.2
 15  19. Texas A&M     15/15    SEC    8-2   9-3   8.8- 3.2     2.0   -5.7   <0.1    0.0
 28  20. Army          19/18    AAc    9-0  11-1  10.7- 1.3     4.1   +2.9    0.0    0.0
 25  21. Iowa St       22/22    B12    8-2  10-2   9.4- 2.6    13.0   +4.6    0.2   +0.1
 30  22. Arizona St    21/21    B12    8-2  10-2   9.3- 2.7    10.7   +7.9   <0.1    0.0
 24  23. UNLV          24/23    MWC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2     4.3  -15.6    0.0    0.0
 22  24. LSU           --/--    SEC    6-4   8-4   7.4- 4.6     0.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0
 21  25. Washington St --/25    P12    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

After that the Committee matches the AP down to the new teams entering (Arizona State, Iowa State back in, UNLV, and Illinois) with the only major difference being the Committee keeps Missouri in after their loss while the AP instead gave a break to Washington State.

This similarity means that our Sunday update using the AP poll as a "basis" doesn't change at all from #15 to #25. The Committee seems to be positioning Army in case they beat Notre Dame, they won't have to have the Knights fly up an embarrassing 13 spots if they do. The one thing the Committee had right was putting Army in the lower reaches of the top 25. They have the 2nd-worst schedule in the country and shouldn't be #19, and certainly not after a bye week.

Week 12: Georgia punches their ticket, puts Tennessee on the bubble

Georgia beat Tennessee 31-17 Saturday, prompting a re-shuffling of our projected Final Committee Top 25. The Bulldogs are almost a certain pick now at 98.3%, up 37.2% from last week when they were on the "bubble" (which is a thing for March Madness, but now is becoming a "thing" for college football too). Now Tennessee is on the bubble, down 10.2%—but still at 70.2% which is really high for a team not expected to make it. 

Oregon is 11-0 and it would be hard for them to find a way to miss the Playoff, yet Ohio State is the most likely Big Ten champion. Same for the SEC, where Alabama is the most likely SEC championship game winner, but Texas, on average finishes higher. Having more losses means more risk for the OSU and Bama. And suddenly Georgia is right up there with Alabama in Playoff Odds, and have the #1 SOS in the country. The Committee will probably push them up quite a bit from last week's #12, and not just because of Kirby Smart giving them the business.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Oregon               B10   11-0  12-0  11.9- 0.1    99.6   +0.3    2.3   -1.4
  1   2. Ohio State          *B10    9-1  11-1  10.7- 1.3    98.4   +0.7   12.3   -1.3
  5   3. Texas                SEC    9-1  11-1  10.7- 1.3    98.4   +7.0   15.7   +1.2
  3   4. Alabama             *SEC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    98.2   +1.8   22.8   -0.3
 11   5. Georgia              SEC    8-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    98.3  +37.2    9.2   +4.8
  4   6. Notre Dame           Ind    9-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    85.7   -6.0   10.1   -2.8
 12   7. Mississippi          SEC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    85.9   +9.5   13.5   +3.3
  9   8. Penn State           B10    9-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    79.8   +6.7    1.7   +0.4
  6   9. Indiana              B10   10-0  11-1  11.3- 0.7    78.0   -5.7    4.1   -1.0
  8  10. Miami FL            *ACC    9-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    65.8   -4.1    2.9   -0.2
  7  11. Tennessee            SEC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    70.2  -10.2    3.2   -2.6
 14  12. SMU                  ACC    9-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    30.7   -3.5    0.4   -0.2
 13  13. Boise St            *MWC    9-1  11-1  10.9- 1.1    67.6   -1.2    0.2   -0.1
 10  14. Brigham Young       *B12    9-1  10-2  10.4- 1.6    41.0  -32.7    0.4   -0.1

The Vols' problem is that Miami is directly above them and an expected auto-bid in the ACC, and if they lose to SMU the Mustangs probably replace them, so Tennessee's best bet might be for 2nd-level Big Ten teams Penn State and Indiana have unexpected losses that allow Tennessee to be the 5th SEC team. Or another 2-loss SEC team like Mississippi might get their 3rd loss. Or even Notre Dame—could they survive a 2nd loss? They'd probably be on the bubble with two losses.

And interestingly Boise State finishes ahead of BYU, after the Big Twelve's terrible weekend where the Cougars lost to Kansas and Kansas State got their 3rd loss to Arizona State. All of this boosted Colorado's chances quite a bit, and even Iowa State gets back into double digits. And look at Tulane! Along with Army the Green Wave clinched a American conference title game berth and beat the Knights most of the time, and remarkably often—over 1 in 4 times—makes the Playoff. Army only makes it around 5% of the time. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 16  15. South Carolina       SEC    7-3   9-3   8.5- 3.5     0.8   -0.1    0.1    0.0
 19  16. Colorado             B12    8-2  10-2   9.5- 2.5    31.2  +14.7    0.4   +0.3
 20  17. Clemson              ACC    8-2   9-3   9.5- 2.5     7.3   +4.3    0.2   +0.1
 23  18. Tulane              *AAc    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1    26.2  +18.5    0.2   +0.1
 15  19. Texas A&M            SEC    8-2   9-3   8.8- 3.2     2.3   -5.4    0.1    0.0
 28  20. Army                 AAc    9-0  11-1  10.7- 1.3     5.0   +3.8   <0.1   +0.1
 25  21. Iowa St              B12    8-2  10-2   9.4- 2.6    13.2   +4.8    0.2   +0.1
 30  22. Arizona St           B12    8-2  10-2   9.3- 2.7    11.5   +8.7    0.1    0.0
 24  23. UNLV                 MWC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2     4.1  -15.8    0.0    0.0
 22  24. LSU                  SEC    6-4   8-4   7.4- 4.6     0.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0
 21  25. Washington St        P12    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0

The SEC has three more teams above, but that makes them #6 to #8 in the conference so their odds are pretty low. But Texas A&M is co-leader right now with Texas and has a solid chance of making the SEC title game. 

Falling out of the top 25: Louisville, who lost to Stanford, and Kansas State who fell to Arizona State. The Wildcats had reasonable odds before that but not anymore.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 26  26. James Madison        SUNe   8-2  10-2   9.6- 2.4     0.2   -1.4  100.0    0.0  
 17  27. Louisville           ACC    6-4   8-4   7.4- 4.6     0.0   -6.1  100.0    0.0  
 18  28. Kansas St            B12    7-3   8-4   8.1- 3.9     0.7  -23.8  100.0    0.0  
 29  29. Missouri             SEC    7-3   9-3   8.2- 3.8     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0  
 27  30. Louisiana-Lafayette *SUNw   8-2  10-2   9.6- 2.4     0.1   -0.7  100.0    0.0  
 31  31. Iowa                 B10    6-4   8-4   7.6- 4.4     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0  
 32  32. Virginia Tech        ACC    5-5   7-5   6.6- 5.4     0.0    0.0   95.5   +1.4  
 45  33. Baylor               B12    6-4   8-4   7.4- 4.6     0.0   -0.1  100.0   +8.2  

Florida's big win over LSU bumped the Gators' bowl odds up from around 50% to 90%, needing one win with Ole Miss and FSU left. The Big Ten had a good week for bowl bids, with USC up 15% after beating Nebraska; Rutgers beat Maryland and got to six wins; and Washington became eligible by beating UCLA, which dunked the Bruins' odds from around 1 in 2 to 1 in 4. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 59  42. Florida              SEC    5-5   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0    0.0   90.3  +38.8  
 42  48. Southern Cal         B10    5-5   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0    0.0   79.5  +15.4  
 74  51. Rutgers              B10    6-4   8-4   7.1- 4.9     0.0    0.0  100.0  +19.7  
 79  59. Kansas               B12    4-6   4-8   4.8- 7.2     0.0    0.0   17.4  +11.1  
 81  64. South Alabama        SUNw   5-5   6-6   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0   96.1  +32.6  
 62  71. West Virginia        B12    5-5   5-7   5.8- 6.2     0.0    0.0   64.0  -18.5  
 69  75. UCLA                 B10    4-6   5-7   5.1- 6.9     0.0    0.0   23.0  -26.6  
 75  76. Washington           B10    6-5   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0    0.0  100.0  +34.9  
 86  77. South Florida        AAc    5-5   6-6   6.5- 5.5     0.0    0.0   98.0  +31.6  
 73  78. Old Dominion         SUNe   4-6   6-6   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0   47.3  -18.5 

Kansas got their 2nd big upset in a row; they were 2-6 needing four straight wins, and so far they've taken down Iowa State and BYU; they have a 17.4% chance to beat Colorado and Baylor to get to six wins. South Alabama upset Louisiana and are right on the verge, while fellow Sun Belt team Old Dominion lost to James Madison and now the Monarchs are still 50/50 to get the two wins they need (over Marshall and Arkansas State). South Florida is now at 98% needing to beat either Tulsa or Rice.

More Big Ten below: Michigan State and Maryland were upset and the Terps are in real trouble, needing to beat both Iowa and Penn State to reach six wins. Utah and Houston both need two wins, with long odds to beat both Iowa State and UCF (Utah), and Baylor and BYU (Houston). 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg 
 76  80. Michigan St          B10    4-6   5-7   5.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0   39.9  -22.7  
104  88. Arkansas St          SUNw   6-4   6-6   6.6- 5.4     0.0    0.0  100.0  +42.2  
 91  91. Utah                 B12    4-6   4-8   4.5- 7.5     0.0    0.0    7.4  -10.5  
 80  93. Houston              B12    4-6   4-8   4.3- 7.7     0.0    0.0    2.5  -26.6  
108  98. Texas-San Antonio    AAc    5-5   6-6   5.9- 6.1     0.0    0.0   82.4  +52.9  
117  99. New Mexico           MWC    5-6   5-7   5.5- 6.5     0.0    0.0   45.6  +42.4  
 82 100. Maryland             B10    4-6   4-8   4.3- 7.7     0.0    0.0    1.4  -24.7  
103 101. Florida Int'l        CUSA   3-7   5-7   4.6- 7.4     0.0    0.0    0.0  -13.6  
 94 103. UNC-Charlotte        AAc    3-7   5-7   4.2- 7.8     0.0    0.0    0.0  -24.4  
107 119. Oregon St            P12    4-6   4-8   4.2- 7.8     0.0    0.0    0.5  -17.4  

In the American conference UTSA beat North Texas and need a win over either Temple or Army. But it's too late for Charlotte who got their 7th loss; had they beat USF, they had FAU and UAB to get past. Florida International is also out of luck. And look at Oregon State, after the upset shutout loss to Air Force the Beavers still have a 0.5% chance to go 6-6: just beat 8-2 Washington State and 9-1 Boise State.

2024 2nd Committee Rankings: Miami fares better than in AP, Georgia (almost) stays in field

The Committee has spoken once again, and there are few surprises. Enough to update our Final Top 25 Projections, though.

Miami did fare better with the Committee (#9) than with the AP voters (#12), so the Canes are a lot safer now than they were in our previous rundown prior to the Committee meeting, where they were #12, essentially needing an ACC title for a berth. Staying in the Committee top 10 gives them a shot at an at-large bid if they lose in the conference championship game.

As a result of Miami's placement, Georgia finished #11 instead of #12, ahead of Mississippi. Both SEC teams have slightly lowered odds since Sunday, but the Bulldogs slipped ahead of the Rebels in average placement. Normally this would mean Georgia makes our "projected field" but in this case since there's a head-to-head element and Ole Miss still has substantially higher Playoff Odds (74% to 61%) we take the teams with the highest odds to make our "field." Miami's rise (or, reduced fall) also bumps Penn State a spot, though their odds hardly change.

Another change happens due to BYU leaping Tennessee per the Committee; this moves BYU ahead of Georgia and Ole Miss, and also moves Tennessee back below Indiana, all with slightly adjusted odds. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team           CFPC  Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Ohio State       2  *B10    8-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    97.7   -0.1   13.6   -2.1
  3   2. Oregon           1   B10   10-0  12-0  11.6- 0.4    99.3   +0.2    3.7   -0.4
  9   3. Alabama         10  *SEC    7-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    96.4  +12.3   23.1   +8.1
  7   4. Notre Dame       8   Ind    8-1  11-1  10.7- 1.3    91.7   +6.2   12.9   +5.4
  4   5. Texas            3   SEC    8-1  11-1  10.5- 1.5    91.4   +8.2   14.5   +3.6
  5   6. Indiana          5   B10   10-0  11-1  11.3- 0.7    83.7   -6.2    5.1   -4.1
  6   7. Tennessee        7   SEC    8-1  10-2  10.2- 1.8    80.4   -5.0    5.8   -4.9
  1   8. Miami FL         9  *ACC    9-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    69.9  -25.9    3.1   -5.0
 12   9. Penn State       4   B10    8-1  11-1  10.5- 1.5    73.1  +21.1    1.3   +0.5
 10  10. Brigham Young    6  *B12    9-0  12-0  11.1- 0.9    73.7   +7.4    0.5   -0.3
  8  11. Georgia         12   SEC    7-2  10-2   9.5- 2.5    61.1  -18.7    4.4   -3.4
 13  12. Mississippi     11   SEC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    76.4  +30.2   10.2   +3.6
 11  13. Boise St        13  *MWC    8-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    68.8   -5.3    0.3   -0.6
 14  14. SMU             14   ACC    8-1  11-1  10.4- 1.6    34.2   -3.4    0.6    0.0
 15  15. Texas A&M       15   SEC    7-2   9-3   8.9- 3.1     7.7   -5.5    0.1    0.0
 19  16. South Carolina  21   SEC    6-3   9-3   8.5- 3.5     0.9   +0.2    0.1    0.0
 20  17. Louisville      19   ACC    6-3   9-3   8.4- 3.6     6.1   +3.6    0.2   +0.1
 21  18. Kansas St       16   B12    7-2   9-3   8.8- 3.2    24.5  +12.3    0.3   +0.2
 23  19. Colorado        17   B12    7-2  10-2   9.2- 2.8    16.5   +9.4    0.1    0.0
 27  20. Clemson         20   ACC    7-2   9-3   9.0- 3.0     3.0   +1.3    0.1    0.0
 18  21. Washington St   18   P12    8-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4     0.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0
 17  22. LSU             22   SEC    6-3   8-4   7.9- 4.1    <0.1  -12.2    0.0   -0.2
 22  23. Tulane          25  *AAc    8-2  10-2   9.6- 2.4     7.7   -0.4    0.1    0.0
 25  24. UNLV            --   MWC    7-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3    19.9   -0.7    0.0   -0.1
 16  25. Iowa St         --   B12    7-2  10-2   9.0- 3.0     8.4  -26.3   <0.1   -0.5

In the lower half of the projected top 25, we see Kansas State back ahead of Colorado (since the Committee, and not the AP, ranks them that way), but the big one is again the Committee's placement of Army. The AP doubled down on their ranking of the Black Knights, moving them up to #16, but the Committee is unimpressed and puts them at #24. Hence, our projection for Army tumbles from a pre-Committee #21 back to #28, which is where they stood last week.

Last week we projected three teams would eventually make their way into the Top 25 and this week two of them did: South Carolina and Tulane. The Committee ranks them at #21 and #25, and we moved them up to #16 and #23 (actually down a notch). UNLV is still in our projection yet not in the Committee's rankings; it might take a while for the Runnin' Rebels to make the cut with the Committee. We also see Iowa State remaining in the top 25 since Army is out.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team           CFPC  Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 29  26. James Madison        SUNe   7-2  10-2   9.2- 2.8     1.6   +1.0  100.0    0.0 
 32  27. Louisiana           *SUNw   8-1  11-1  10.2- 1.8     0.8   +0.6  100.0    0.0 
 28  28. Army            24   AAc    9-0  11-1  10.0- 1.0     1.2   -0.4  100.0    0.0 
 41  29. Missouri        23   SEC    7-2   9-3   8.3- 3.7     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0 
 35  30. Arizona St           B12    7-2   8-4   8.5- 3.5     2.8   +1.4  100.0    0.0 
 26  31. Iowa                 B10    6-4   8-4   7.5- 4.5     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0 
 30  32. Virginia Tech        ACC    5-5   7-5   6.5- 5.5     0.0    0.0   94.1   -3.8 
 36  33. Georgia Southern     SUNe   6-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7     0.1   +0.1  100.0    0.0 

Just outside the top 25, we have Army, as noted, and Missouri, whom we project to have 1 or 2 more losses and zero percent Playoff Odds. Army's Playoff Odds were 1.6% last week, 9.1% in the interim rankings (pre-Committee) and just 1.2% now. This will continue to happen as we use the AP, then the Committee, for rankings yardstick. Incidentally the FPI gives Army an astounding 15.1% chance to make the Playoff, which I think is ridiculous even if the Committee ranked them as high as the AP does.

Lousiana-Lafayette, at #27, may be on the verge of a Committee ranking at 8-1. They probably won't stay there unless they win the Sun Belt, and even then their Playoff Odds are low. 

2024 Week 11 Playoff Picture: Georgia stumbles, Miami tumbles

Ole Miss beating Georgia and Miami losing to Georgia Tech were the big stories last week, obviously.

Ohio State is again at #1, back where they were after week 2 and week 6. They're on track to win a rematch over #2 Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If they lose that game, they're still probably in, but Oregon is even more certain—99.4%—to get a bid. In fact it's hard to figure out how Oregon could miss out on the Playoff right now. Losing to both Wisconsin and Washington, and still making the title game and losing it, to finish 10-3? Maybe. Meanwhile Indiana and Penn State are looking good if they go 11-1 each and miss the title game, that's fine with them. The Big Ten is sitting pretty, much prettier than the SEC in fact.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Ohio State          *B10    8-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    97.8    0.0   13.4   -2.3
  3   2. Oregon               B10   10-0  12-0  11.6- 0.4    99.4   +0.3    3.5   -0.6
  9   3. Alabama             *SEC    7-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    97.4  +13.3   22.9   +7.9
  7   4. Notre Dame           Ind    8-1  11-1  10.7- 1.3    91.1   +5.6   13.0   +5.5
  4   5. Texas                SEC    8-1  11-1  10.5- 1.5    92.4   +9.2   14.2   +3.3
  6   6. Tennessee            SEC    8-1  10-2  10.2- 1.8    83.0   -2.4    6.1   -4.6
  5   7. Indiana              B10   10-0  11-1  11.3- 0.7    81.3   -8.6    4.8   -4.4
 12   8. Penn State           B10    8-1  11-1  10.5- 1.5    73.5  +21.5    1.2   +0.4
 13   9. Mississippi          SEC    8-2  10-2   9.8- 2.2    81.1  +34.9   11.5   +4.9
  8  10. Georgia              SEC    7-2  10-2   9.5- 2.5    64.0  -15.8    4.4   -3.4
 10  11. Brigham Young       *B12    9-0  12-0  11.1- 0.9    70.9   +4.6    0.5   -0.3
  1  12. Miami FL            *ACC    9-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    63.2  -32.6    3.1   -5.0
 11  13. Boise St            *MWC    8-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    69.5   -4.6    0.3   -0.6

In the SEC a ridiculous six teams are fighting for the title, with 2-loss Alabama a slight favorite over 1-loss Texas. The Tide destroyed LSU so completely that they're #1 in our power rating and have the best chance (22.9%) to win the national title now. Tennessee is in the mix with 1 loss, and Mississippi put themselves back in with the win over Georgia. The Bulldogs are set to finish #10 and still perhaps miss the Playoff, though their odds of making it are still well over 50%. But with Notre Dame taking up a space, it will be hard to find room for five SEC teams.

Georgia lost almost 16% of Playoff Odds but Miami's loss to Georgia Tech was far worse—it turns the ACC into a 1-bid league meaning the Hurricanes are probably going to have to win the conference. Still at 63.2% after losing a monstrous 32.6%, the 'Canes, instead of being far and away the ACC leader are now 1 of 4 teams within about 6 places of each other, with SMU leading Clemson and Louisville. The Big Twelve isn't in great shape either, as BYU isn't in great at-large position and Colorado and Kansas State are farther down the rankings. Boise State's lead in the "fifth auto-bid" slot continues to grow, and if the ACC and Big Twelve teams have title game upsets, the Broncos could be in the top 4 with a first-round bye.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 14  14. SMU                  ACC    8-1  11-1  10.4- 1.6    35.7   -1.9    0.5   -0.1
 15  15. Texas A&M            SEC    7-2   9-3   8.9- 3.1     7.5   -5.7   <0.1    0.0
 19  16. South Carolina       SEC    6-3   9-3   8.5- 3.5     0.5   -0.2   <0.1    0.0
 27  17. Clemson              ACC    7-2   9-3   9.0- 3.0     5.6   +3.9    0.1    0.0
 20  18. Louisville           ACC    6-3   9-3   8.4- 3.6     2.9   +0.4    0.1    0.0
 23  19. Colorado             B12    7-2  10-2   9.2- 2.8    16.3   +9.2    0.2   +0.1
 21  20. Kansas St            B12    7-2   9-3   8.8- 3.2    22.1   +9.9    0.1    0.0
 28  21. Army                *AAc    9-0  11-1  10.0- 1.0     9.7   +8.1    0.0    0.0
 18  22. Washington St        P12    8-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4     0.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0
 17  23. LSU                  SEC    6-3   8-4   7.9- 4.1     0.1  -12.2    0.0   -0.2
 22  24. Tulane               AAc    8-2  10-2   9.6- 2.4     7.5   -0.6    0.1    0.0
 25  25. UNLV                 MWC    7-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3    14.0   -6.6    0.0   -0.1 

South Carolina beat Texas A&M a few weeks ago but the Aggies only have one conference loss which keeps them in the mix, however doubtful, for the Playoff. LSU lost pretty much all of their chance with the 42-13 loss to Alabama. These are the 6th, 7th, and 8th SEC teams when we don't even know if the league (or any league) with get four bids. The other teams near the bottom of the top 25 are Boise's competition for the last auto-bid, consisting of Army and Tulane from the American (with Army inflated by use of the AP poll as a Committee stand-in before Tuesday), and UNLV, whose 29-27 win over Hawaii substantially lowered their Playoff odds and set their national title odds to zero. Meanwhile Washington State's Playoff Odds dipped to zero, too, as the Cougars were needing lots of teams to lose many games, and it didn't happen.

Iowa State's 2nd loss was as damaging as their first (they went from 56.1% Playoff Odds two weeks ago to 34.7% last week to 9.2% this week). But because the Big Twelve is still wide open, their odds are better than all but 17 teams. The Cyclones' loss is why Colorado and K-State's odds both jump by nearly 10%, and Arizona State's jump to 2.5%, as the Sun Devils get a shot at both BYU and K-State. Louisiana-Lafayette is the favorite to win the Sun Belt but even when they do, they rarely make the Playoff, hence James Madison carries higher Playoff Odds. Georgia Southern has essentially a chance in hell. Western Kentucky is projected to win the C-USA but does not make the Playoff in almost any scenario.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 16  26. Iowa St              B12    7-2  10-2   9.0- 3.0     9.2  -25.5  100.0    0.0  
 29  27. James Madison        SUNe   7-2  10-2   9.2- 2.8     1.1   +0.5  100.0    0.0  
 32  28. Louisiana-Lafayette *SUNw   8-1  11-1  10.2- 1.8     0.4   +0.2  100.0    0.0  
 35  29. Arizona St           B12    7-2   8-4   8.5- 3.5     2.5   +1.1  100.0    0.0  
 26  30. Iowa                 B10    6-4   8-4   7.5- 4.5     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0  
 30  31. Virginia Tech        ACC    5-5   7-5   6.5- 5.5     0.0    0.0   94.1   -3.8  
 36  32. Georgia Southern     SUNe   6-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7    <0.1   +0.1  100.0    0.0  
 41  33. Missouri             SEC    7-2   9-3   8.3- 3.7     0.0    0.0  100.0    0.0  
 33  34. Western Kentucky    *CUSA   7-2  10-2   9.2- 2.8     0.1    0.0  100.0    0.0  
 66  35. Georgia Tech         ACC    6-4   7-5   6.9- 5.1     0.0    0.0  100.0  +16.8  
 39  36. North Carolina       ACC    5-4   7-5   7.2- 4.8     0.0    0.0   98.7   +0.2  
 24  37. Pittsburgh           ACC    7-2   8-4   8.1- 3.9     0.1   -3.5  100.0    0.0  

The ACC is well-represented above, but with four teams in the top 25 none has much of a chance. Virginia Tech has 5 losses, North Carolina has four, and despite their huge leap from upsetting Miami, Georgia Tech will have to be content with clinching a bowl game. Pittsburgh's 2nd loss, 24-19 to Virginia, puts them lower than all those teams though they still have a 1 in 1000 chance of making the Playoff. They face Clemson this week and Louisville next, so they have opportunity to make up the lost ground.

As we look further down the list, the teams who still have non-zero Playoff Odds starts to strain credulity. Does 4-loss Baylor have a shot, even 1 in 2000+ ? All four losses are in-conference, can they even finish #2 under any scenario? And they play West Virginia, Houston, and Kansas, hardly an opportunity-laded slate. Sam Houston State in the CUSA is another head-scratcher, along with Marshall in the Sun Belt. At least Memphis is still alive in the American, which could end up the #5 conference, and Navy holds a win over Memphis hence their gaudy 0.2% odds. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 43  45. Baylor               B12    5-4   8-4   6.8- 5.2    <0.1   +0.1  91.8    -0.5  
 47  46. Sam Houston St       CUSA   7-2   9-3   9.0- 3.0    <0.1   +0.1  100.0    0.0  
 34  50. Cincinnati           B12    5-4   6-6   6.2- 5.8     0.1   -1.5   82.5  -14.3  
 56  51. Navy                 AAc    7-2   8-4   8.0- 3.0     0.2   +0.1  100.0    0.0  
 55  57. Marshall             SUNe   6-3   7-5   7.5- 4.5    <0.1    0.0  100.0   +1.5  
 51  59. Florida              SEC    4-5   6-6   5.5- 6.5     0.0    0.0   51.5  -10.8  
 48  61. Memphis              AAc    8-2   9-3   9.0- 3.0    <0.1    0.0  100.0    0.0  
 77  62. West Virginia        B12    5-4   5-7   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0   82.5  +38.3  
 53  63. Central Florida      B12    4-6   6-6   5.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0   42.7  -24.2  

Cincinnati still shows 0.1% too, down from 1.6% last week following a loss to West Virginia, who adds 38% to their bowl hopes. UCF's bowl hopes went in the other direction with a loss to Arizona State, and now the Knights need to beat both West Virginia (road) and Utah (home) to get six wins. Florida is back to almost exactly 50/50 on a bowl bid after the loss to Texas; the Gators need two wins in three tries, and they finish at Florida State. Assuming they can win that one, they need to either beat LSU or Mississippi, both at home. LSU looks pretty vulnerable so that's the one I'd bet on.

More high-leverage bowl-bid campaigns below: Boston College edged Syracuse and only needs one win, but with SMU, UNC, and Pitt left that's not a gimme. The latter two are at home so it's still a short putt. Virginia beat Pitt which revived their hopes (from 8.2% to 27.3%) but they need to beat one of Notre Dame, SMU, and Virginia Tech, the latter being on the road. That's a long putt. Oklahoma's up and down season went down again last week with a lose-from-ahead loss to Missouri; now the Sooners need to either beat Alabama or LSU, the latter on the road.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 69  65. Boston College       ACC    5-4   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0    0.0   77.5  +20.5  
 49  66. Oklahoma             SEC    5-5   5-7   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0   39.3  -31.6  
 84  69. UCLA                 B10    4-5   5-7   5.5- 6.5     0.0    0.0   49.6  +32.3  
 85  74. Rutgers              B10    5-4   6-6   6.3- 5.7     0.0    0.0   80.3  +35.5  
 64  75. Washington           B10    5-5   6-6   5.7- 6.3     0.0    0.0   65.1  -12.3  
 99  83. Virginia             ACC    5-4   5-7   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0   35.5  +27.3  
 93  85. East Carolina        AAc    5-4   6-6   6.5- 5.5     0.0    0.0   94.6  +19.1  
 78  86. South Florida        AAc    4-5   5-7   5.8- 6.2     0.0    0.0   66.4  -16.3  
100  88. San Jose St          MWC    6-3   7-5   6.9- 5.1     0.0    0.0  100.0  +23.2  

UCLA and Rutgers really helped themselves last week with wins over Iowa (20-17) and Minnesota (26-19). With three games left UCLA needs two wins and is about 50/50 to get it from Washington, USC, and Fresno State, while Rutgers needs one win from Maryland, Illinois, and Michigan State (first and last on the road). Speaking of Washington, to reach six wins they need to either beat UCLA or Oregon. Both East Carolina and South Florida are in good shape in the American, especially East Carolina who needs one more win, while USF needs two wins from a pretty easy slate (Charlotte, Tulsa, Rice). San Jose State really did themselves a favor by reaching six wins (beat Oregon State 24-13) as their next two are Boise and UNLV; they'd have been sweating the Stanford game at five wins, most likely.

Liberty finally made it. After a 5-0 start and a cancelled game, then back to back losses to Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State, the Flames beat MTSU 37-17 to insure a winning season. Coastal Carolina is 5-4 and Appalachian State 4-5 in the C-USA, but the former has a 77% bowl bid chance while App State is at 3.3%. Why are the Mountaineers' odds so low? For one, they only have two games left (they were supposed to play Liberty). Second, they have James Madison and Georgia Southern left, and their odds of winning both are apparently 3.3%. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 95  89. Coastal Carolina     SUNe   5-4   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0    0.0   77.2  +21.1  
 96  92. Liberty              CUSA   6-2   7-4   7.2- 3.8     0.0    0.0  100.0  +10.2  
 98  93. Hawai`i              MWC    4-6   6-6   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0    0.0   -5.1  
 86  95. North Carolina St    ACC    5-5   5-7   5.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0   28.8  -33.4  
 80 100. Fresno St            MWC    5-5   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.0    0.0   70.4  -23.9  
 97 101. Appalachian St       SUNe   4-5   4-7   4.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0    3.3  -11.7  
 91 107. Oregon St            P12    4-5   5-7   4.9- 7.1     0.0    0.0   17.9  -44.3  
104 112. San Diego St         MWC    3-6   5-7   4.2- 7.8     0.0    0.0    1.2  -31.4  
122 117. New Mexico           MWC    4-6   4-8   4.4- 7.6     0.0    0.0    3.2   +2.4  

North Carolina State was over 60% in bowl odds last week but a home loss to Duke set them back; now the Wolfpack need a road win at either Georgia Tech or North Carolina. Only 28.8% to beat one of those two? Ouch.  The worst drop was suffered by Oregon State, who was also over 60% last week but got upset by San Jose State and now needs to beat two of Air Force (road, but easy), Washington State (home, tough), and Boise State (road, very tough). They have a generous 17.9% of winning two. 

That leaves a slew of Mountain West teams hoping to reach six wins. Fresno State has the best chance despite their loss to Air Force dropping them from 94% to 70%, but neither Colorado State nor UCLA (road) is a gimme. San Diego State wasn't looking too bad until this week; losing to New Mexico puts them at 3-6 and needing to sweep UNLV, Utah State, and Air Force. The latter two are both 2-7 so if they'd topped the Lobos it wouldn't be out of the question, but beating UNLV (on the road) is another matter.

New Mexico's win revived their near-dead hopes, propping them from 0.8% to 3.2%. The Lobos still need to beat both Washington State at home and Hawaii on the road. Hawaii, for their part, needs that win and a win over Utah State to go 6-6, but even if they do they aren't bowl eligible as they have two FCS wins, and as a result they already show 0.0% bowl odds. 

David Hale (ESPN), you can't switch metrics to prove 2 different points

This is a response to David Hale's rundown of which teams should be ranked higher by the Committee. I made my own anti-Committee post here, this is about his complaints which are...unusual in that he switches metrics to suit his argument.

Here's his list of teams that were slighted by the Committee:

1. BYU - agreed, BYU should be higher, they have the 2nd best résumé of any team. And Hale points out that BYU's detractors point to things like FPI and SP+, which point to future performance (or really, tell how good a team has really been outside of the Win-Loss column). Keep a note of this, because in a few bullet points the idea of the résumé goes out the window in Hale's analysis.
   
   
2. SMU - agreed, to a point. SMU probably has a better résumé than Notre Dame, but a week ago it wasn't close. Notre Dame a few spots ahead of SMU isn't going to matter much in the long run
   
   
3. Mississippi - disagree strongly. Here's where Hale suddenly embraces FPI and SP+ noting that Ole Miss ranks in the top five! And then he introduces the "explosiveness" stats to show that...they've played well despite losing 2 games. So how dare the Committee demote the Rebels for having no wins over the rest of the top 25! They're explosive!! He then cherry-picks some stats to make Ole Miss look deserving of a higher ranking than Alabama (who beat Georgia, and Missouri 34-0), by expanding the field to the SP+ top 40:
   
   
   Yeah, that's not convincing. Bad cherry pick, but makes a good tweet maybe? But like he said, they have a shot at Georgia which will give them their first top 25 win. After beating Georgia, their résumé actually WILL look like Alabama's, and then we can talk about who should be ranked higher. Right now it's clearly Alabama; the Committee got that right 100%.
   
   
4. Army - now we're just getting stupid. Army at #25 is a gift, plain and simple. Yes, they've played very well, that's why they got in at #25 with no wins over any decent team. Army has zero right to complain about being ranked too low. Hale's gripe?
   
   Last season, when Liberty waltzed through its weakest-in-the-nation schedule, the committee had no objections to giving the Flames enough love to make a New Year's Six bowl.
   
   Last year undefeated Liberty wasn't even ranked at #25 until the FOURTH Committee poll. Yes, for the first 3 weeks the Flames were not on the list at all. So Army is three weeks ahead of where Liberty was.
   
   And that's the point. Liberty eventually made the New Year's bowl because they kept winning and the other candidates lost. Army is already #25, has a big game vs. Notre Dame that will give them an actual team to play, and every chance to pass Boise State if indeed they should.
   
   Suddenly Hale is silent on SP+ and FPI, which ranks Army an abysmal #34 and #52 in the nation. 
   
   Maybe they're "explosive" ?
   
   
5. He lists Florida State as a joke but lists 4 more teams that were snubbed:

• South Carolina - Agree! And I said so in my post
• Vanderbilt - Disagree! Because South Carolina should have replaced Missouri, and without Missouri in, Vanderbilt (who lost to GEORGIA STATE) should not be in, because Missouri beat Vanderbilt. Simple math.
• Georgia - Maybe? I will say I am puzzled why the Committee moved Ohio State ahead of Georgia given that the rest of their exercise was simply to repeat the AP top 25, but there's no major reason Georgia has to be ahead. They do have more good wins, I suppose.
• Louisville - They're fairly rated by the Committee, who even made sure they're ahead of Clemson. They have 3 losses. They want a higher rank? They should win some games. Clemson was a good start.

Bottom line, if you're going to criticize the Committee (and we should) then be consistent on whether you think résumé or performance metrics are more important. For the Committee's job it should be almost all résumé. At this point teams don't have enough of one to make that the sole judgement, but it works already in most cases.

First Committee Rankings: No change in Playoff forecast, 1 change in entire top 25

The Committee came out with an utterly predictable Top 25 that didn't change the 12 projected teams at all—in fact, they are all in the CURRENT Committee top 12—but it moved things around a bit and swapped out one Top 25 projected team.

Georgia ended up #3 instead of the AP #2 and that dropped the Bulldogs to #8 from #6 (still up from last week's #9 though), and might have caused Alabama to fall to #9 too. Their Odds hardly moved.  

The Committee corrected the AP, who had LSU above Texas A&M; the Aggies' Playoff Odds are now higher than LSU's as a result. They didn't rank South Carolina but neither did the AP so that didn't affect the Gamecocks. They moved Louisville up to #22 which boosted them a few spots in our projection, and Kansas State was up 3 spots compared to the AP which moved them up from #24 in ours (i.e., they only fell from #15 last week to #21 now). 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  CFPC
  1   1. Miami FL            *ACC    9-0  12-0  11.7- 0.3    95.8   +1.7    8.1     4  
  3   2. Ohio State          *B10    7-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    97.8  +11.6   15.7     2  
  2   3. Oregon               B10    9-0  12-0  11.5- 0.5    99.1   +5.5    4.1     1  
  7   4. Texas               *SEC    7-1  11-1  10.3- 1.7    83.2  +11.2   10.9     5  
  6   5. Indiana              B10    9-0  11-1  11.3- 0.7    89.9  +11.5    9.2     8  
  4   6. Tennessee            SEC    7-1  10-2  10.2- 1.8    85.4   -2.6   10.7     7  
  5   7. Notre Dame           Ind    7-1  11-1  10.5- 1.5    85.5   -2.0    7.5    10  
  9   8. Georgia              SEC    7-1  10-2   9.8- 2.2    79.8   +9.8    7.8     3  
  8   9. Alabama              SEC    6-2  10-2   9.5- 2.5    84.1   +8.4   15.0    11  
 11  10. Brigham Young       *B12    8-0  12-0  10.9- 1.1    66.3   +1.9    0.8     9  
 13  11. Boise St            *MWC    7-1  11-1  10.9- 1.1    74.1   +7.7    0.9    12  
 10  12. Penn State           B10    7-1  11-1  10.2- 1.8    52.0  -15.8    0.8     6  
 16  13. Mississippi          SEC    7-2  10-2   9.4- 2.6    46.2  +21.5    6.6    16 
 17  14. SMU                  ACC    8-1  11-1  10.4- 1.6    37.6  +20.8    0.6    13 
 14  15. Texas A&M            SEC    7-2   9-3   8.9- 3.1    13.2  -26.1    0.1    14 
 12  16. Iowa St              B12    7-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    34.7  -21.4    0.6    17 
 19  17. LSU                  SEC    6-2   8-4   8.2- 3.8    12.3   -0.2    0.2    15 
 21  18. Washington St        P12    7-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4     0.1    0.0    0.0    21 
 25  19. South Carolina       SEC    5-3   9-3   8.2- 3.8     0.7   -0.7    0.1    -- 
 28  20. Louisville           ACC    6-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7     2.5   +1.3    0.1    22 
 15  21. Kansas St            B12    7-2   9-3   8.7- 3.3    12.2  -18.7    0.1    19 
 22  22. Tulane              *AAc    7-2  10-2   9.6- 2.4     8.1   -2.3    0.1    -- 
 26  23. Colorado             B12    6-2  10-2   8.9- 3.1     7.1   +5.6   <0.1    20 
 20  24. Pittsburgh           ACC    7-1   9-3   9.2- 2.8     3.6  -10.0    0.0    18 
 24  25. UNLV                 MWC    6-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3    20.6   +7.0    0.1    -- 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 29  26. Iowa                 B10    6-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7     0.0    0.0  100.0   +1.6  
 18  27. Clemson (23)         ACC    6-2   8-4   8.4- 3.6     1.7  -15.8  100.0    0.0   
 23  28. Army (25)            AAc    8-0  11-1   9.8- 1.2     1.6   -7.7  100.0    0.0

The big moves were at the bottom where Army was ranked #25 by the Committee instead of AP's #18. Watch for the AP to correct that next week by downgrading the Black Knights.

The Committee also inexplicably upgraded Pittsburgh from AP #23 to AP #18. As a result, Pitt now stays in our projected top 25 while Army is a few rungs shy. Army's Playoff Odds were down to 6.1% before; they took an additional hit down to 1.6% with the Committee downgrade. Pitt had only 2.1% odds a few days ago, now that's up to 3.6%.

Why do we even have the Committee? 2024 First CFPC rankings reaction

When I said the Committee tends to follow the AP poll these days—WOW who knew they'd just cut and paste and fix a few AP mistakes? But that's pretty much what they did. Look at this:

Team                     CFPC   AP
Oregon                     1    1
Ohio State                 2    3 (up 1)
Georgia                    3    2 (down 1)
Miami FL                   4    4
Texas                      5    5
Penn State                 6    6
Tennessee                  7    7
Indiana                    8    8
Brigham Young              9    9
Notre Dame                 10   10
Alabama                    11   11
Boise St                   12   12
SMU                        13   13
Texas A&M                  14   15 (up 1, beat LSU)
LSU                        15   14 (down 1, lost to A&M)
Mississippi                16   16
Iowa St                    17   17
Pittsburgh                 18   23 (up 5, why?)
Kansas St                  19   22 (up 3, beat Colorado)
Colorado                   20   21 (up 1, lost to K-State)
Washington St              21   20 (down 1, weak SOS)
Louisville                 22   25 (up 3, beat Clemson)
Clemson                    23   19 (down 4, lost to Louisville)
Missouri                   24   -- (why? lost by 34 and 31)
Army                       25   18 (down 7, #133 SOS)

The first 17 spots have just two teams flipped: Moving Ohio State ahead of Georgia, and flipping LSU and Texas A&M. The latter is obvious since A&M beat LSU two weekends ago. The first could go either way, Ohio State's only loss is to Oregon but they have 1 good win (Penn State) while Georgia beat Clemson and Texas.

Other than that, they made no effort to really rank these teams based on merit. Just made 2 switches. Why do we have the Committee?

There was a bit more shuffle in the last 8 spots but not really much. For some reason they like Pitt, who has no good wins and an ok SOS. They correctly moved K-State back ahead of Colorado (whom they beat), dropped Washington State a spot for a bad SOS, moved Louisville ahead of Clemson which is debatable but the Cardinals won the head to head at Clemson and have no bad losses, while Clemson has no good wins.

The last few spots went almost as I predicted: Army at #25 and another team booting Vanderbilt out. Obviously Army with the #133 SOS barely deserves consideration at this point and I thought they'd penalize Army—but keep them in—by putting them #25. South Carolina should have been the team to replace Vanderbilt though, as the Gamecocks have losses to 3 ranked teams and beat Texas A&M. Missouri lost to Texas A&M 41-10 and 34-0 to Alabama.

The Committee didn't do its homework by putting Missouri in. They probably saw Vanderbilt in the AP poll and said "hey, Missouri beat Vanderbilt and they have fewer losses, why aren't they ahead of Vanderbilt?" which is a good question, why, AP? But the solution isn't to put Missouri in, it's to see who really deserves to replace the Commodores and that is the Gamecocks.

In the end you can see how they cut and paste the AP top 25, corrected its main deficiencies (teams with a win behind a team they beat), decided Ohio State should be #2, and kicked Army to the curb. Swapping A&M and LSU, K-State and Colorado, Louisville and Clemson, and Missouri over Vanderbilt were all rote choices that require no thinking. This could have been done by a robot.

So why do we have the Committee again?

Huge day: First College Football Playoff Committee Rankings, also that President thing

Today's the big day we've been waiting for. It's finally here: tonight we'll find out who is in the Committee's first Top 25 of 2024.

I've looked at the first-Committee-week rankings since 2014 and found a few things that stand out. First, they pretty closely follow the AP Top 25 lately, but they boost SOS and discount losses quite a bit.

The emphasis on SOS almost disappears by the end of the season when teams have a fleshed-out résumé but right now it makes sense as most teams only have a few big games under their belt to make up the pecking order.

Fading the losses just means the AP is a bit too much focused on W/L record and the Committee is more into SOS. This element also disappears by the end of the season.

So here's my projection simply by formula based on past results:

2024 Committee Projection - first week by formula
num  Team                        rec   rating
  1. Oregon                      9-0   63.5
  2. Georgia                     7-1   68.5
  3. Ohio State                  7-1   91
  4. Miami FL                    9-0  121.5
  5. Texas                       7-1  160
  6. Tennessee                   7-1  186
  7. Penn State                  7-1  188
  8. Indiana                     9-0  226.5
  9. Alabama                     6-2  243
 10. Brigham Young               8-0  243.5
 11. Notre Dame                  7-1  272
 12. Boise St                    7-1  320
 13. SMU                         8-1  338
 14. LSU                         6-2  339.5
 15. Texas A&M                   7-2  367
 16. Mississippi                 7-2  379
 17. Iowa St                     7-1  424
 18. Clemson                     6-2  517.5
 19. Colorado                    6-2  540
 20t Army                        8-0  542.5
 20t Kansas St                   7-2  542.5
 22. Washington St               7-1  547.5
 23. Pittsburgh                  7-1  574.5
 24. Louisville                  6-3  591
 25. Vanderbilt                  6-3  594

As you can see it follows the AP pretty close. The top five teams are the same, then Tennessee and Penn State are flipped at 6 and 7, and Alabama is up from AP 11 to #9 pushing BYU and Notre Dame down.  With Boise State at #12 our field is set as the first 12 teams here.

From there it follows the AP from 13 to 17 but Army (easiest schedule in country) drops from AP 18 to a tie for #20 with Kansas State, who is up from AP #22. Colorado is up from #21 to #19, Washington State (also easy schedule) is down from #20 to #22, Pitt holds at #23, then Louisville and Vandy swap places.

Same 25 teams, slightly different order.

I do think that if the Committee ends up with this general outline they will "fix" a few things. For example, they'll put Texas A&M ahead of LSU since the Aggies beat the Tigers (just a week ago! How did the AP voters flub this, in this day and age?)

Kansas State should be ahead of Colorado (they beat the Buffs in Boulder). The loss to Houston stings but the Cougars are 4-5 now so it's really no worse than LSU's loss to USC.

BYU is undefeated and has wins over 1-loss SMU and 2-loss K-State, so having them under 2-loss Alabama—and even Indiana, who has no top 25 wins—seems a bit silly. Maybe the Committee will rank the Cougars fairly, maybe not, but this one stood out. Really, you could elevate BYU to #2, but the Committee has its limits. I'll keep them below Penn State since the original formula doesn't have them very close.

Finally, the Committee might not rank Army at all if some of their past moves hold. Army has the #133 schedule at best, so I'd guess the Committee will leave the Knights out or put them at #25 to show their committment to SOS (which only holds on the first rankings). And South Carolina, with 3 losses to ranked teams and a win over Texas A&M, might get the last slot, pushing out Vanderbilt who has a loss to 2-6 Georgia State.

So that would give us something like this:

2024 Committee Projection - first week formula with editorializing
num  Team                        rec   rating
  1. Oregon                      9-0   63.5
  2. Georgia                     7-1   68.5
  3. Ohio State                  7-1   91
  4. Miami FL                    9-0  121.5
  5. Texas                       7-1  160
  6. Tennessee                   7-1  186
  7. Penn State                  7-1  188
  8. Brigham Young               8-0  243.5
  9. Indiana                     9-0  226.5
 10. Alabama                     6-2  243
 11. Notre Dame                  7-1  272
 12. Boise St                    7-1  320
 13. SMU                         8-1  338
 14. Texas A&M                   7-2  367
 15. LSU                         6-2  339.5
 16. Mississippi                 7-2  379
 17. Iowa St                     7-1  424
 18. Clemson                     6-2  517.5
 19. Kansas St                   7-2  542.5
 20. Colorado                    6-2  540
 21. Washington St               7-1  547.5
 22. Pittsburgh                  7-1  574.5
 23. Louisville                  6-3  591
 24. South Carolina              5-3  607.5
 25. Army                        8-0  542.5

But it's a crapshoot and no one knows what's going to happen, and it will be several weeks anyway before we know the final standings.

Wait, am I talking about the Playoff rankings or the Presidential race? Speaking of the latter, I made a Monte Carlo simulation using 270ToWins's state poll averages and here's what comes out:

Look at that. Seems my simulation is bucking the trend as most have had Trump the winner (though Nate Silver pretty much called it 50/50 this morning) Here Trump wins on a state-by-state electoral vote count but Harris wins 57.2% of the time with the state winners randomized in a Monte Carlo sim. She just has more paths to victory it seems. Interestingly a 269-269 tie happen a lot! Ties probably go to Trump via the House state-by-state counting system so he wins 42.8% of the time overall.

I assume the state polls will be off up to 2% either way and push all states in the same direction, whichever direction that is. But who knows how accurate the polls are, and this simulation is pretty much dependent on that. And in any case, it's still very much a tossup.

Election results start coming in right around the time the Committee top 25 is announced. Which one will you be following?

2024 post-week 10 Playoff Outlook: Same teams, new odds after Buckeyes beat Penn State

Here's a post-week 10 update—pre-Committee announcement. After the first Committee rankings these odds will be revised and I will comment on the resultant Top 25.

Ohio State edged Penn State 20-13 in Happy Valley and...not much changed, since that was the expected outcome. Making it into a reality does give a boost to the Buckeyes of course, and fades the Nittany Lions a bit. Ohio State is back in the driver's seat in the Big Ten—ever so slightly—as they have better odds of winning a rematch with Oregon but the Ducks have the better odds of making it to the title game. Along with Miami in the ACC those three teams each has over 95% playoff odds, pretty amazing with around 4 games left. And next on the Playoff% order is another Big Ten team, Indiana, is nearing 90% so we're pretty certain to have three teams from that league. Penn State wants to be the fourth team and right now they're just barely hanging on to their spot, since an 11-1 Lions team has a great shot. In fact it might be better if they don't make the conference title game?

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  Chg%
  1   1. Miami FL            *ACC    9-0  12-0  11.7- 0.3    95.7   +1.6    8.8    0.0
  3   2. Ohio State          *B10    7-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4    97.8  +11.6   15.1   -0.1
  2   3. Oregon               B10    9-0  12-0  11.5- 0.5    98.6   +5.0    3.9   +0.4
  7   4. Texas               *SEC    7-1  11-1  10.3- 1.7    82.9  +10.9   10.4   +1.8
  6   5. Indiana              B10    9-0  11-1  11.3- 0.7    89.8  +11.4    9.5   +2.2
  9   6. Georgia              SEC    7-1  10-2   9.8- 2.2    80.6  +10.6    8.1   +2.3
  8   7. Alabama              SEC    6-2  10-2   9.5- 2.5    85.0   +9.3   16.3   +2.7
  4   8. Tennessee            SEC    7-1  10-2  10.2- 1.8    85.5   -2.5   10.2   -5.0
  5   9. Notre Dame           Ind    7-1  11-1  10.5- 1.5    84.4   -3.1    7.1   -2.5
 11  10. Brigham Young       *B12    8-0  12-0  10.9- 1.1    66.8   +2.4    0.6   -0.4
 13  11. Boise St            *MWC    7-1  11-1  10.9- 1.1    74.3   +7.9    1.0   +0.2
 10  12. Penn State           B10    7-1  11-1  10.2- 1.8    52.4  -15.4    0.7   -1.1

Then there's the SEC, who has four teams in pretty solid in the projection, but the order keeps shifting. This time idle Texas moved up the most, oddly, while Georgia also jumped despite a sketchy win vs. Florida. Alabama was idle and gained almost 10%, too, while Tennessee treaded water and fell four spots after having some trouble with pesky Kentucky. The Vols Playoff Odds only shed 2.5% but their odds of winning it all dropped from 15.2% to 10.2%, and now Alabama is #1 with 16.3% odds. The drawback on the Tide is their record; they visit LSU this weekend which really should be their last major hurdle. Boise State continued to become more and more inevitable, while Notre Dame also dropped a bit, probably because their huge wins—Navy and Texas A&M—both took a hit. BYU was idle and one of their big wins—Kansas State—took a hit while the other—SMU—got fatter. 

Texas A&M's loss to South Carolina was expected by the Strength power rating, as was SMU's win over Pittsburgh, but not the magnitude in either case. The Aggies shed over 2/3 of the Playoff odds to around 12%, while the winning Gamecocks also lose in terms of Playoff Odds. With three losses, they really need the teams above them to be losing in droves and that's not happening. They did move up to #19, so their spot in the Top 25 looks solid. SMU really added Playoff Odds, jumping from under 20% to almost 40%, in line just behind Mississippi who clubbed Arkansas 63-31 and is nearing 50% odds (and has a do-or-die hosting Georgia this weekend). Joining K-State in the Big Twelve upset department is Iowa State, who fell only three spots but lost nearly 20% of Playoff Odds. The Cyclones path to a Big Twelve title is still pretty clear, though Colorado also has just one conference loss.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  Chg%
 16  13. Mississippi          SEC    7-2  10-2   9.4- 2.6    47.4  +22.7    6.3   +3.5
 17  14. SMU                  ACC    8-1  11-1  10.4- 1.6    38.5  +21.7    0.7   +0.4
 12  15. Iowa St              B12    7-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    37.0  -19.1    0.5   -1.4
 14  16. Texas A&M            SEC    7-2   9-3   8.9- 3.1    11.9  -27.4    0.1   -1.4
 19  17. LSU                  SEC    6-2   8-4   8.2- 3.8    12.3   -0.2    0.3    0.0
 21  18. Washington St        P12    7-1  11-1  10.6- 1.4     0.2   +0.1    0.0    0.0
 25  19. South Carolina       SEC    5-3   9-3   8.2- 3.8     0.6   -0.8   <0.1    0.0
 22  20. Tulane              *AAc    7-2  10-2   9.6- 2.4     7.5   -2.9    0.1    0.0
 28  21. Louisville           ACC    6-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7     1.3   +0.1   <0.1    0.0
 24  22. UNLV                 MWC    6-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3    18.7   +5.1    0.1    0.0
 26  23. Colorado             B12    6-2  10-2   8.9- 3.1     6.7   +5.2    0.1    0.0
 23  24. Army                 AAc    8-0  11-1  10.5- 1.5     6.1   -3.2   <0.1    0.0
 15  25. Kansas St            B12    7-2   9-3   8.7- 3.3     9.6  -21.3    0.2   -0.7

And SMU wasn't the only big winner in the ACC; Louisville pulled off a big upset, beating Clemson. But the Cardinals have three losses—all to ranked teams, all by 7 points—which is why they should finish firmly in the Top 25 yet have almost no shot at the Playoff. Also in this boat (with South Carolina): Washington State, as I've mentioned before. The Cougars did double their odds this week, to 0.2%.

Now let's look at Boise State's competition for the fifth auto-bid: #22 UNLV is by far the biggest threat, as they could directly beat Boise State (for the MWC title) and would probably take over the top spot if they did. Other than the Rebels, only Tulane and Army in the American have much of a chance. Somehow the FPI (ESPN) gives Army a nearly 20% Playoff shot, which seems absurd with their schedule. They play Notre Dame and that's their only hope—beat the Irish and go undefeated, and hope Boise State loses. That's not a 20% chance. Tulane's odds are strangely higher despite their 2 losses, probably because Strength ranks the Hurricane much higher than Army (ESPN gives the Black Knights the #3 offense in the country, which seems very skewed by a per-possession outlook). Basically, the fifth spot is Boise State's to lose, and they probably won't lose it.

Outside looking in: Clemson and Pittsburgh both lost, culling the ACC's flock of teams hoping to get the league a 2nd bid. Both were in double digits and both fell to less than 3%. That's still better than Virginia Tech, who lost in overtime to Syracuse, their 4th loss which grinds their Playoff hopes down to zero. Iowa and Minnesota both got great wins (42-10 over Northwestern, and 25-17 over Illinois) but both are at 0.0% as the Big Ten has four whales hogging all the Playoff Odds in the conference. The Hawkeyes and Gophers will have to be content with reaching bowl eligibility.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 18  26. Clemson              ACC    6-2   8-4   8.4- 3.6     2.3  -15.2  100.0    0.0  
 20  27. Pittsburgh           ACC    7-1   9-3   9.2- 2.8     2.1  -11.5  100.0    0.0  
 29  28. Iowa                 B10    6-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7     0.0    0.0  100.0   +1.6 
 31  29. James Madison        SUNe   6-2  10-2   9.0- 3.0     0.6   -0.2  100.0    0.0  
 27  30. Virginia Tech        ACC    5-4   8-4   7.1- 4.9     0.0   -0.8   97.9   -1.5 
 36  31. Minnesota            B10    6-3   7-5   7.7- 4.3     0.0   -0.1  100.0   +5.2 
 42  32. Louisiana-Lafayette *SUNw   7-1  11-1   9.8- 2.2     0.2    0.0  100.0    0.0  
 33  33. Western Kentucky    *CUSA   6-2  10-2   9.2- 2.8     0.1   -0.2  100.0   +0.1 
 39  34. Cincinnati           B12    5-3   7-5   7.2- 4.8     1.6   +1.3   96.8   +2.0 
 53  35. Arizona St           B12    6-2   8-4   8.1- 3.9     1.4   +1.2  100.0   +7.2 </pre

Unlike the Big Ten, the Big Twelve is wide open enough that even Cincinnati and Arizona State still have measurable Playoff Odds, both getting a rather large boost (percentage-wise) as a result of K-State and Iowa State's upsets. The rest of the teams above are minor conference teams hoping for the 5th bid. James Madison is behind the 8-ball in the Sun Belt but still has better odds than UL-Lafayette. And Western Kentucky can win the C-USA and still not be close to the last auto-bid. These teams are really out of the Playoff race unless some crazy things happen.

Texas Tech wasn't a bowl-bid shoo-in even at 5-3, but they took care of that with the Iowa State win while conference-mate Central Florida took itself off the 50/50 bubble with a 56-12 thrashing of Arizona. Vanderbilt's win over Auburn also clinched their bowl bid in style, while Florida's odds took a surprising 10% hit with the Georgia loss. If FSU had been as good as advertised this year the Gators might be out of luck with Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss left in addition to the Seminoles.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 69  37. Texas Tech           B12    6-3   7-5   7.5- 4.5    <0.1   +0.1  100.0  +22.1
 35  40. Southern Cal         B10    4-5   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.0    0.0   67.6  -19.6
 46  42. Vanderbilt           SEC    6-3   6-6   6.7- 5.3     0.0   -0.1  100.0  +28.3
 41  45. Toledo              *MAC    6-3   9-3   8.4- 3.6     0.0    0.0  100.0   +0.4 
 30  48. Memphis              AAc    7-2   9-3   8.8- 3.2    <0.1   -1.4  100.0    0.0  
 43  51. Florida              SEC    4-4   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.0   -0.4   62.3  -10.0
 67  53. Central Florida      B12    4-5   6-6   5.9- 6.1     0.0    0.0   66.9  +16.1
 32  56. Navy                 AAc    6-2   8-4   7.8- 4.2    <0.1   -2.5  100.0    0.0  
 73  58. Syracuse             ACC    6-2   7-5   7.4- 4.6    <0.1   +0.1  >99.9  +16.3
 40  59. Wisconsin            B10    5-4   7-5   6.3- 5.7     0.0   -0.1   80.5  -10.4
 76  64. Washington           B10    5-4   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0    0.0   77.4  +39.8

Toledo clinched bowl eligibility and the Rockets are hoping for a MAC title. In the American, both Memphis and Navy still had Playoff aspirations but both were upset by lowly conference foes (UTSA and Rice respectively) leaving both at <0.1% but at least assured of bowl bids. And the Big Ten had plenty of action outside of OSU vs. Penn State: USC lost at Washington, putting their post-season in some doubt while the Huskies soured from under 40% to nearly 80% with the 26-21 win. Wisconsin's bad loss to Iowa—their second 42-10 drubbing of the year—dinged their odds a bit but they only need one win between Oregon, Nebraska, and Minnesota. With the Huskers game on the road and Minnesota playing well, 80.5% seems a bit generous!

The Sun Belt had some impactful games; Texas State lost to Louisiana as expected, Old Dominion fell to Appalachian State, and South Alabama lost to Georgia Southern. All three teams have four wins and all are favored to get to six wins, some more than others. Nebraska's odds took a hit with their upset loss to UCLA—at home!—and now they have to beat either USC (road), Wisconsin (home), or Iowa (road). Meanwhile Houston was left for dead at about 5% before the win over Kansas State; now the Cougars have to beat two of Arizona, Baylor, and BYU, which suddenly seems doable.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 48  65. Texas St-San Marcos  SUNw   4-4   7-5   6.8- 5.2     0.0    0.0   93.2   -4.6 
 56  73. Old Dominion         SUNe   4-5   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.0    0.0   64.0  -22.3
 55  74. Nebraska             B10    5-4   5-7   5.8- 6.2     0.0    0.0   64.5  -23.5
101  75. Houston              B12    4-5   5-7   5.1- 6.9     0.0    0.0   29.9  +24.7
 71  76. South Alabama        SUNw   4-5   6-6   5.9- 6.1     0.0    0.0   69.3  -16.1
 72  77. West Virginia        B12    4-4   4-8   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0   44.2  -13.4
 89  78. South Florida        AAc    4-4   6-6   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0   82.7  +30.3
 83  79. Buffalo              MAC    5-4   7-5   6.9- 5.1     0.0    0.0   97.5  +14.0
 62  80. Fresno St            MWC    5-4   7-5   6.7- 5.3     0.0    0.0   94.3   -4.8 
 74  82. Auburn               SEC    3-6   4-8   4.3- 7.7     0.0    0.0    1.6  -20.2

West Virginia and Auburn both lost and the Tigers are now 3-6 with a 1.6% chance of winning out vs. ULM, Texas A&M, and Alabama. South Florida was about 50/50 last week but beating Florida Atlantic somehow put them over 80%. They play three 3-6 teams and Navy, who got upset last weekend. 80% seems about right, but how did they only have 50% last week? Fresno State needs one more win but how did they not get it hosting Hawaii? They play at 1-7 Air Force next week, better take care of it then or it only gets harder, including a game at UCLA.

Speaking of the Bruins, UCLA's upset win at Nebraska puts them in double-digits for bowl hopes again, but they're still under 20%. If they lose to Iowa this Friday (they play at home) they'll need to beat Washington, USC, and Fresno. Only the Huskies are a road game. NC State put themselves on the right side of 50/50 by beating Stanford 59-28; they'll be underdogs to Duke, Georgia Tech, and UNC but they only need one and should get it as they're all pretty close games. Oklahoma State and Arizona have both collapsed this year to 3-6. The Cowboys are down to 3.2% bowl odds, needing to beat TCU, Texas Tech, and Colorado to finish 6-6, while Arizona has just a 2% chance to beat Houston, TCU, and Arizona State. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%   %chg
 97  84. UCLA                 B10    3-5   4-8   4.6- 7.4     0.0    0.0   17.3  +11.3
 88  86. North Carolina St    ACC    5-4   5-7   5.8- 6.2     0.0    0.0   62.2  +20.1
 79  92. Oklahoma St          B12    3-6   4-8   4.0- 8.0     0.0    0.0    3.2  -25.0
 80  95. Coastal Carolina     SUNe   4-4   5-7   5.7- 6.3     0.0    0.0   56.1  -24.9
105  97. Appalachian St       SUNe   4-4   4-7   4.7- 6.3     0.0    0.0   15.0  +10.5
 99 101. UNC-Charlotte        AAc    3-6   5-7   4.7- 7.3     0.0    0.0   18.3  -10.2
100 106. Arizona              B12    3-6   3-9   3.8- 8.2     0.0    0.0    1.9  -11.1
117 109. Texas-San Antonio    AAc    4-5   5-7   5.1- 6.9     0.0    0.0   26.9  +22.2
104 110. Florida Atlantic     AAc    2-6   4-8   4.0- 8.0     0.0    0.0    7.0  -17.4
111 122. New Mexico           MWC    3-6   3-9   3.6- 8.4     0.0    0.0    0.8  -13.1

More Sun Belt action: Coastal Carolina fell to almost 50/50 after losing to lowly Troy, while Appalachian State rekindled their hopes with an upset of Old Dominion. The teams play Thursday and the Mountaineers obviously need it more with only three games left (they play 11 games due to a cancelled Liberty contest). The American saw Charlotte and Florida Atlantic drop while UTSA's upset of Memphis boosted their bowl odds to 1 in 4. They need to win 2 of 3 while the Owls have to sweep East Carolina, Temple, Charlotte, and Tulsa. Not impossible, but unlikely. This means that both FAU and Charlotte can't be bowl eligible; the 49ers need to beat USF, FAU, and UAB. Winning 3 in a row is more likely than 4, but still unlikely.

And speaking of unlikely, New Mexico lost to Wyoming and has less than a 1% chance of beating San Diego State, Washington State, and Hawaii to go 6-6. It's the middle game that does most of the damage, but the other two are on the road, hence the chalk projection of 3-9.

D2 Shocker: winless Southern Nazarene upsets undefeated Ouachita Baptist, 18-17

Maybe Division II football isn't on your radar, to be honest it's not on mine much but this result was a shocker. 0-8 Southern Nazarene went on the road against 8-0 Ouachita Baptist and came out the winner, 18-17, last Thursday.

This is like Kent State beating Ohio State. Or maybe, more like Kent State beating BYU since Ouachita isn't necessarily the level of the Buckeyes in Division II, but they've been consistently a winning team for 15 years and one of the top teams for the last five years.

Nothing like this has happened in FBS football that I can remember. The closest thing might be Mississippi beating eventual 1977 national champ Notre Dame, but that happened early in the season and Ole Miss was 5-6 that year. This year winless Kennesaw State beat undefeated Liberty, but Liberty is not a major conference team and had only a few votes in the top 25. Ouachita was #5 in our D2 power rating (now #18) and they were #3 in the D2 polls.

The result plunges Ouachita's Strength ranking from #7 to #16 and their Successs rank from #16 to #29.

Southern Nazarene was #150 and now is #126, moving from #140 to #129 in Strength and from #161 to #118 in Success. A big improvement, but 8 losses is 8 losses and even a huge win can't erase those.

Is this the biggest upset in college football at any level this year? This decade? This century so far? Maybe yes to all three.

2024 Post-week 9 Playoff forecast: Penn State roars back in; Notre Dame solid

Let's get right into it. Miami beat Florida State and remains #1, expected to go 12-0 and pretty much get in whether they win or lose the ACC title game, hence their 94.1% Playoff Odds. Right behind them, Oregon passes Ohio State and is now favored for the Big Ten crown. The reason was OSU's touch-and-go 21-17 home win over Nebraska, which devalued the Buckeyes quite a bit. They're still 86.2% certain to get a Playoff bid, and are still first with a 15.2% chance to win it all. Actually no, they are tied for #1 at 15.2% with Tennessee, who was idle last week but benefits from Ohio State's slip as well a Texas having an off-game against Vanderbilt, and even Alabama's huge 34-0 blanking of Missouri boosts the Vols who have a win over the Tide. Alabama incidentally is 3rd most likely to win it all at 13.6%—they just have to make sure they get in.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  Chg%
  1   1. Miami FL            *ACC    8-0  12-0  11.7- 0.3    94.1   +0.8    8.8   +0.7
  3   2. Oregon              *B10    8-0  12-0  11.2- 0.8    93.6   +1.7    3.5   -0.4
  2   3. Ohio State           B10    6-1  11-1  10.2- 1.8    86.2   -4.7   15.2   -8.2
  5   4. Tennessee           *SEC    6-1  11-1  10.3- 1.7    88.0   +4.9   15.2   +6.1
  8   5. Notre Dame           Ind    7-1  11-1  10.5- 1.5    87.5  +15.9    9.6   +4.8
  6   6. Indiana              B10    8-0  11-1  11.2- 0.8    78.4   -2.2    7.3   -1.6
  4   7. Texas                SEC    7-1  11-1  10.1- 1.9    72.0  -10.0    8.6   -4.0
  9   8. Alabama              SEC    6-2  10-2   9.5- 2.5    75.7   +4.5   13.6   +4.2
  7   9. Georgia              SEC    6-1   9-3   9.4- 2.6    70.0   -2.2    5.8   +0.1
 12  10. Penn State           B10    7-0  11-1  10.6- 1.4    67.8  +24.5    1.8   +1.2
 11  11. Brigham Young       *B12    8-0  12-0  11.1- 0.9    64.4   +5.8    1.0   -0.5
 10  12. Iowa St              B12    7-0  12-0  10.7- 1.3    56.1   -3.7    1.9   -0.5

Notre Dame slaughtered Navy 51-14 giving them two wins over 1-loss teams (Navy, Texas A&M), tied for the most in the nation (the others are Oregon over Boise State and Ohio State; Georgia over Texas and Clemson; and BYU over Kansas State and SMU). Some think the Irish are on the outside looking in due to their loss to Northern Illinois (ESPN's Heather Dinich doesn't even rate them in the top 12, despite including Texas A&M), but their win résumé dwarfs those concerns. Their bigger problem is not having a conference title game, so getting another loss is a no-no. The other impactful win last weekend was Penn State beating Wisconsin on the road, 28-13, boosting the Lions back into the bracket and pushing out idle Iowa State (who is still over 50%). The Badgers were playing really well the last three games so this was a great win for Penn State, and they gain almost 25% ahead of their showdown at Ohio State.

In the lower half of the projected final top 25, Texas A&M helped themselves by beating LSU which caused the tigers to lose 2/3 of their odds, from 37.5% to 12.5%. Much of LSU's odds were opportunity-based, meaning they have a tough schedule and if they do well against it they'll be rated high, but the risk is having several losses which looks like what is going to happen. Mississippi beat Oklahoma 26-14 at home which by now is considered a fail and the Rebels lost over 10% for it. The Aggies jump to #14, waiting for one of the top 4 SEC teams to stumble. Next week they face tough South Carolina on the road which really looks like a trap game to me.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  Chg%
 14  13. Boise St            *MWC    6-1  11-1  10.8- 1.2    66.4  +12.7    0.8   +0.2
 17  14. Texas A&M            SEC    7-1   9-3   9.5- 2.5    39.3  +17.7    1.5   +0.9
 16  15. Kansas St            B12    7-1  10-2   9.8- 2.2    30.9   -3.8    0.9   -0.5
 15  16. Mississippi          SEC    6-2  10-2   9.0- 3.0    24.7  -10.5    2.8   -1.1
 18  17. SMU                  ACC    7-1  11-1   9.9- 2.1    16.8   -7.8    0.3   -0.6
 19  18. Clemson              ACC    6-1  10-2   9.1- 2.9    17.5   -2.5    0.6   +0.1
 13  19. LSU                  SEC    6-2   8-4   8.3- 3.7    12.5  -25.0    0.3   -0.9
 30  20. Pittsburgh           ACC    7-0   9-3   9.7- 2.3    13.6   +9.3    0.2   +0.1
 20  21. Washington St        P12    7-1  11-1  10.5- 1.5     0.1   -0.5    0.0   -0.1
 24  22. Tulane              *AAc    6-2  10-2   9.3- 2.7    10.4   +3.1   <0.1    0.0
 22  23. Army                 AAc    7-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6     9.3   -2.9   <0.1    0.0
 21  24. UNLV                 MWC    6-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3    13.6   -9.0   <0.1   -0.1
 23  25. South Carolina       SEC    4-3   8-4   7.6- 4.4     1.4   +0.5    0.1    0.0

Pittsburgh was a big winner this week, finally getting respect from our projections and popping in at #20 after beating up Syracuse 41-13. The undefeated Panthers still don't quite rate with the other ACC hopefuls here, Clemson and SMU, but they take on the Mustangs this coming Saturday and that should establish the #1 contender. Kansas State is a close #3 in the Big Twelve right now and will have to wait to play Iowa State later to make up ground. Meanwhile Washington State will win the Pac-12 outright, I guess, but that means nothing.

Boise State solidified their grip on the final auto-bid by beating UNLV 29-24 on the road, and while the loss hurt the Rebels they're still in remarkably good shape, staying in the top 25 and only a few spots under the AAC's Tulane and Army. Getting to the Mountain West finals and winning the rematch with Boise State probably still gets them in, as there are few legit contenders. Hence their Playoff Odds are still as good as undefeated Pitt's odds.

Below are teams whose Playoff Odds are generally draining off and approaching zero, with a few exceptions. Colorado still has hope at 1.5% and is favored to win every game going forward, but against an easier slate that won't help them too much. Virginia Tech and Louisville both have three losses but just 1 and 2 respectively in the ACC; the Cardinals play both Clemson (this week) and Pitt later on. In the Big Ten, Iowa and USC both ticked down to 0.0% this week despite winning big (too many losses already), Illinois dropped to 0.0% after losing big to Oregon, but somehow Minnesota has a prayer (<0.1%) at 5-3 after crushing Maryland last weekend which helped their bowl hopes immensely. The Gophers play Illinois next and Penn State later on. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 26  26. Colorado             B12    6-2  10-2   8.8- 3.2     1.5    0.0  100.0   +0.7 
 28  27. Virginia Tech        ACC    5-3   9-3   8.0- 4.0     0.8   -0.4   99.4   +4.3 
 29  28. Louisville           ACC    5-3   8-4   7.6- 4.4     1.2   -0.6   98.7   +3.8 
 38  29. Iowa                 B10    5-3   9-3   7.8- 4.2     0.0   -0.1   98.4   +4.2 
 31  30. Memphis              AAc    7-1  10-2   9.8- 2.2     1.5   -0.3  100.0    0.0 
 25  31. James Madison        SUNe   6-2  10-2   9.0- 3.0     0.8   -0.9  100.0   +0.1 
 27  32. Navy                 AAc    6-1   9-3   9.0- 3.0     2.6   -6.8  100.0    0.0 
 34  33. Western Kentucky    *CUSA   5-2  10-2   9.3- 2.7     0.3   +0.1  >99.9    0.0 
 45  34. Arkansas             SEC    5-3   7-5   7.1- 4.9     0.1    0.0   99.5  +22.7 
 32  35. Southern Cal         B10    4-4   7-5   6.6- 5.4     0.0   -0.1   87.2   +1.6 
 52  36. Minnesota            B10    5-3   7-5   7.2- 4.8    <0.1    0.0   94.8  +21.4 
 40  37. Missouri             SEC    6-2   8-4   7.8- 4.2    <0.1   -0.5  100.0    0.0 
 36  38. Illinois             B10    6-2   9-3   8.0- 4.0     0.0   -0.9  100.0    0.0 

Navy is the only team that dropped out of the top 25 but still retains a 2.6% Playoff shot. They're one of four AAC teams in the mix but now they're behind Memphis whom they beat earlier (they still have a better Playoff Odds than the Tigers). James Madison and Western Kentucky are other auto-bid hopefuls but they're far below the Mountain West and American leaders. Arkansas got their 5th win and, like Minnesota, it put them very near bowl certainty. SEC teammate Missouri got crushed by Alabama but actually went up in rankings. They lost nearly all their Playoff Odds but they're already bowl-eligible. 

Teams below this level are very long-shots for the Playoff, certainly, but sometimes a tough schedule gives hope. An easy one means no opportunity for big wins. 5-3 Cincinnati (0.3%) has Iowa State and Kansas State remaining, while Baylor (0.0%) has an easy remaining schedule which they might sweep but it won't get them to the Playoff. 5-3 Wisconsin (<0.1%) has almost no chance but they do face Oregon on the 16th. Florida ranks #21 in Strength and has Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss left; winning all those would put the Gators on the map and there's about a 0.4% chance of that happening. Vanderbilt has LSU and Tennessee left, plus a win over Alabama, and <0.1% odds. Oklahoma has 4 losses and 0.0% odds.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 39  39. Cincinnati           B12    5-3   7-5   7.0- 5.0     0.3   -1.2   94.8   -1.6 
 33  40. Wisconsin            B10    5-3   7-5   6.9- 5.1    <0.1   -2.8   90.9   -5.6 
 35  41. Toledo              *MAC    5-3   9-3   8.1- 3.9     0.0   -0.3   99.6   -0.3 
 44  42. Louisiana-Lafayette *SUNw   6-1  10-2   9.0- 3.0     0.2   +0.1  100.0    0.0 
 42  43. Florida              SEC    4-3   6-6   6.2- 5.8     0.4   -0.2   72.3   +0.7 
 54  44. Sam Houston St       CUSA   6-2   9-3   9.0- 3.0    <0.1   +0.1  100.0   +0.4 
 50  46. Vanderbilt           SEC    5-3   5-7   6.1- 5.9    <0.1    0.0   71.7   -0.6 
 56  47. Oklahoma             SEC    4-4   5-7   5.9- 6.1     0.0   -0.1   65.3   +2.9 
 80  49. North Carolina       ACC    4-4   7-5   6.7- 5.3    <0.1   +0.1   90.0  +36.8 
 59  50. Baylor               B12    4-4   8-4   6.6- 5.4     0.0    0.0   85.8  +11.1 
 57  51. Marshall             SUNe   4-3   7-5   7.2- 4.8    <0.1    0.0   95.0   +2.5 

The rest of the teams above are chasing the 5th auto-bid, probably to no avail. Toledo is favored to win the MAC and despite that given 0.0% chance of making the Playoff. Louisiana-Lafayette might win the Sun Belt but is very unlikely to breech the Playoff zone. Sam Houston State is #2 in the C-USA but bowl eligibility will have to be their consolation. Same with Marshall in the Sun Belt. North Carolina isn't after an auto-bid but needs miracles to make the Playoff with 4 losses; somehow, following a big 41-14 win at Virginia the Tar Heels have a tiny chance, maybe due to the ACC's parity or the tiny chance of a wide-spread collapse that makes an 8-4 team viable? Not sure. In any case, they gain 36.8% in bowl eligibility odds and are at 90% after rebounding from their 4-game skid.

Cal mauled Oregon State 41-7, upping their bowl odds to 90% at 4-4 currently. Duke is 6-2 and probably should have better bowl odds but they don't rate well in Strength, despite taking SMU into overtime last week. If they upset Miami this week things will change. The only other teams here with a Playoff chance at all are 5-2 Arizona State (0.2%) who has BYU and KSU on their remaining schedule; and North Texas, who is 5-3 in the American and...how exactly do they register even a <0.1% ? Not sure, thought they still play Army and...if they win that and every other non-power conference team collapses?

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 69  52. California           ACC    4-4   7-5   6.7- 5.3     0.0    0.0   92.2  +19.5 
 43  53. Arizona St           B12    5-2   7-5   7.2- 4.8     0.2   -0.2   92.8   +0.2 
 53  54. Duke                 ACC    6-2   8-4   7.6- 4.4    <0.1    0.0  100.0    0.0 
 81  56. Old Dominion         SUNe   4-4   7-5   6.6- 5.4     0.0    0.0   86.3  +28.5 
 64  60. Michigan             B10    5-3   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0    0.0   78.3  +27.2 
 62  61. North Texas          AAc    5-3   8-4   7.6- 4.4    <0.1    0.0   98.4   +0.7 
 85  63. Bowling Green        MAC    4-4   8-4   6.9- 5.1     0.0    0.0   93.0  +24.8 
 55  66. Boston College       ACC    4-4   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.0   -0.1   61.7  -11.6 
 58  67. Central Florida      B12    3-5   5-7   5.5- 6.5     0.0   -0.1   50.8  -10.4 
 49  68. Michigan St          B10    4-4   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0    0.0   73.9  -11.1 
 48  69. Texas Tech           B12    5-3   6-6   6.3- 5.7     0.0   -0.1   77.9  -11.3 
 71  70. TCU                  B12    5-3   7-5   6.7- 5.3     0.0    0.0   89.9  +14.0 

Old Dominion boosted their bowl odds a LOT by crushing Georgia Southern 47-19, while Michigan did the same for theirs by beating Michigan State leaving the two teams with similar (good) chance at bowl eligibility. Bowling Green finally lived up to their potential in beating Toledo 41-26 on the road (the Falcons lost to Penn State and Texas A&M by a touchdown each) and should be bowl-bound soon. TCU's gain was Texas Tech's loss as the Horned Frogs won 35-34 putting both teams at 5-3 and both should be in the post-season.

South Alabama is the big winner below. The Jaguars beat Louisiana-Monroe 46-17 and took themselves off the bowl-game bubble, up 29.2% (ULM was down 11% but is still at 82.6% themselves). West Virginia and Auburn helped themselves with wins but the Mountaineers are barely above 50% while the Tigers are barely above 20%! Interestingly Auburn plays ULM in November—along with Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Alabama. They need three wins, which is why they have such low odds. Arkansas State also solidified their odds from about 50% to 73.6% after topping Troy. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 91  71. South Alabama        SUNw   4-4   7-5   6.6- 5.4     0.0    0.0   85.4  +29.2 
 77  72. West Virginia        B12    4-4   5-7   5.7- 6.3     0.0    0.0   57.6  +16.5 
 95  74. Auburn               SEC    3-5   5-7   4.9- 7.1     0.0    0.0   21.8  +15.0 
 47  75. Maryland             B10    4-4   5-7   5.3- 6.7     0.0   -0.1   39.3  -31.6 
 63  77. Kentucky             SEC    3-5   4-8   4.5- 7.5     0.0    0.0    5.7  -29.6 
 68  83. Buffalo              MAC    4-4   7-5   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0   83.5  -11.2 
 82  85. Utah                 B12    4-4   4-8   5.0- 7.0     0.0    0.0   26.2  -21.1 
 72  86. Louisiana-Monroe     SUNw   5-2   6-6   6.5- 5.5     0.0   -0.1   82.6  -11.0 
 86  87. Northwestern         B10    3-5   4-8   4.6- 7.4     0.0    0.0   15.0  -11.3 
101  92. Arkansas St          SUNw   5-3   5-7   6.2- 5.8     0.0    0.0   73.6  +22.2 

Everyone else above lost ground, including terrible weeks for Maryland and Kentucky, both down around 30%. Maryland still has a decent chance (around 40%) following their loss to Minnesota, but Kentucky is in trouble. Losing to Auburn means the 3-5 Cats have to win three of four, and they play at Tennessee and at Texas. So a 5.7% chance of winning one of those, and beating Louisville and Murray State, is what the computer is saying. Utah is almost in the same boat but they are 4-4, which means they have to win 2 of 4 out of BYU (8-0), Colorado (6-2), Iowa State (7-0), and UCF (3-5). The 17-14 loss to Houston last Saturday is what put them in that fix.

East Carolina beat Temple 56-34 which puts the Pirates on the right side of bowl eligibility, but they're the only ones who moved "up" in the group below. Virginia took the worst fall, dropping nearly 40% to sit at 8.4% after falling to North Carolina 41-14 at home. Get this: an 8.4% chance of bowl eligibility and still a 1 in 2000-ish shot at the Playoff??? That's due to their schedule—it's tough so getting 2 wins will be tough, but if they beat all four of Pitt (7-0), Notre Dame (7-1), SMU (7-1), and Virginia Tech (5-3), they'll be 8-4 and if everything else falls into place they make the Playoff.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
103  94. East Carolina        AAc    4-4   6-6   5.9- 6.1     0.0    0.0   65.6  +23.1 
 89  95. San Jose St          MWC    5-3   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0   -0.1   73.5  -10.5 
 73  96. Virginia             ACC    4-4   4-8   4.5- 7.5    <0.1    0.0    8.4  -39.8 
 70  98. Liberty              CUSA   5-1   7-4   7.1- 3.9     0.0   -0.1   92.9   -5.8 
 94 100. Arizona              B12    3-5   4-8   4.4- 7.6     0.0    0.0   13.0  -18.1 
 98 103. Florida Int'l        CUSA   2-6   5-7   4.8- 7.2     0.0    0.0   17.1  -31.2 
110 111. New Mexico           MWC    3-5   4-8   4.5- 7.5     0.0    0.0   13.9  -13.0 
109 117. Texas-San Antonio    AAc    3-5   4-8   4.1- 7.9     0.0    0.0    4.7  -20.4 
128 128. Massachusetts        Ind    2-6   2-10  2.5- 9.5     0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0 
130 129. Purdue               B10    1-6   1-11  1.4-10.6     0.0    0.0   <0.1    0.0 

Liberty was only projected at #70 despite their 5-0 start so losing a game was expected, but not losing to 0-6 Kennesaw State! The Flames will still go to a bowl game. Near the bottom we find UMass and Purdue. UMass will not be bowl-eligible since even at 6-6 they'd have only 4 FBS wins. Purdue has a tiny chance of going 5-1 or better, against a schedule that includes Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana, a combined 21-1 as of today. Good luck, Boilermakers !

If you needed proof Liberty isn't good this year...

...last night's loss to FBS-newcomer Kennesaw State certainly provided it. The Owls (I had to look up the nickname) beat the Flames 27-24 and it was Liberty's first regular-season loss after 17 wins. 

It's not surprising at all that Liberty lost a game, but THIS game? Kind of a shock, given that Kennesaw State was 0-6 going in. Our projected Committee Top 25 showed Liberty favored to go just 8-3 (so, 3-3 after a 5-0 start) with 8.2 wins expected. Last night's game was firmly in the W column as far as expectations go, while Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, and Sam Houston State looked like losses.

Liberty's 5-0 run this year was against the weakest schedule in the FBS. The Flames had last year's weakest schedule, too, and they went 13-0 while ranking a reasonable #41 in Strength. This year they ranked #106. Their résumé so far:

• beat Campbell (currently #75 in FCS) 31-24
• beat #132 New Mexico State 30-24
• beat #127 UTEP 28-10
• beat #111 East Carolina 35-24
• beat #99 Florida International 31-24 (OT)

All of those were home games, too, except for New Mexico State.

Kennesaw State entered the game 0-6 and ranked #133 in Strength. Liberty should have been able to win this one, but considering they beat the #132 team by 6 points at home, a road game vs. #133 is no gimme.

Still, who would have bet that this was going to be the game that ended their streak?

Liberty started the year in our projections with a 17.6% chance to make the Playoff, due to their solid odds of winning the CUSA. Each week they won a game and dropped in odds, from 17.6% to 16.5% to 9.6% to 7.6% to <0.1% the last few weeks. Their odds got cut in half once when they didn't play, due to their game with Appalachian State was cancelled, leaving them with an 11-game schedule.

So despite Sports Illustrated's claim that last night's upset had Playoff implications, no it really did not. That ship had sailed already. and Liberty was pretty much out of contention to be the 5th-ranked conference champ even if they won out.

By last week Liberty had fallen from their pre-season #18 ranking in our final Committee Top 25 to #70 last week. That won't be improving come Monday, and that <0.1% Playoff chance is bound to settle to 0.0%

As for Kennesaw State...they were one of just four teams whose Playoff Odds started the year at 0.0%, and that won't budge. Their Bowl odds started at 16% and stood at <0.1%, and I'm not sure those will improve either. But those are just paper odds anyway, since in real life the Owls aren't eligible for a bowl game until 2025. 

So even if this is the start of a great run and Kennesaw State ends up 6-6, they'll still be staying home.

2024 post-week 8 Playoff / Bowl Odds change: Georgia back in (of course), Miami at #1

Georgia beating Texas 30-15 had the obvious effect: The Bulldogs, who had slipped out of the Playoff range last week, jumped back in with a massive 35% gain in Playoff Odds. Texas fell from the top spot to #4, shedding 15% of their gaudy 96.6% odds last week, but are still favored to win the SEC. That's because Georgia is expected to lose a game or two more.  Meanwhile Tennessee topped Alabama 24-17 moving the Vols up to #5 and the Tide down to #9, but both are solid Playoff favorites. Alabama lost only 6% despite having 2 losses, while Tennessee gained 25%. LSU jumped back into the conversation in a big way by beating Arkansas 34-10 but we expect 2 or 3 more losses from their tough schedule, so it looks like they'll be close but not make it unless they can get some upsets.

That left the #1 spot open and Miami jumped in from #3 after beating Louisville. The Canes are now favored even by the averages to go 12-0 as the Cardinals were their last big threat (they do face 6-1 Duke and 5-1 Syracuse). Miami gained over 11% and now sit at 93.3% Playoff Odds mostly due to their easy schedule. Despite being odds-on favorite to finish #1, they are only the 6th most likely national champion at 8.1%. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  Chg%
  3   1. Miami FL            *ACC    7-0  12-0  11.6- 0.4    93.3  +11.2    8.1   +1.7
  2   2. Ohio State          *B10    5-1  11-1  10.4- 1.6    90.9   +0.4   23.4   +6.2
  4   3. Oregon               B10    7-0  12-0  11.0- 1.0    91.9   +8.3    3.9   +2.1
  1   4. Texas               *SEC    6-1  11-1  10.2- 1.8    82.0  -14.6   12.6  -17.5
 10   5. Tennessee            SEC    6-1  10-2  10.2- 1.8    83.1  +25.8    9.1   +1.7
  8   6. Indiana              B10    7-0  11-1  11.1- 0.9    80.6  +13.5    8.9   +5.1
 13   7. Georgia              SEC    6-1  10-2   9.5- 2.5    72.2  +35.6    5.7   +3.3
  7   8. Notre Dame           Ind    6-1  11-1  10.1- 1.9    71.6   -0.6    4.8   +0.1
  5   9. Alabama              SEC    5-2  10-2   9.3- 2.7    71.2   -6.3    9.4   -1.3
  6  10. Iowa St             *B12    7-0  12-0  10.8- 1.2    59.8  -13.2    2.4   -1.4
  9  11. Brigham Young        B12    7-0  12-0  10.7- 1.3    58.6   -1.6    1.5   -0.2
 11  12. Penn State           B10    6-0  10-2   9.8- 2.2    43.3   -0.7    0.6   -0.1

Ohio State is still #2 but #1 in national championship odds at 23.4%. Just behind the Buckeyes is the team that beat them, Oregon, who now slightly surpasses them in Playoff Odds. Essentially we a predicting that Ohio State wins a rematch in the Big Ten title game but both teams get in. Don't count out undefeated Indiana, however, as the Hoosiers' 56-7 beatdown of Nebraska gained them 13.5%. Penn State once again became the odd man out and slipped just below the Playoff zone while idle. They play Ohio State in a few weeks which is their opportunity to solidify their Playoff position.

Notre Dame also treaded water during an idle week and the character of their remaining schedule has done a 180: Now Florida State and USC aren't the big hurdles, rather it's Army and Navy. The Big Twelve has two front-runners, Iowa State and BYU, and both are in but clinging to the final spots. The Cyclones and Cougars both won tight games last week by identical 38-35 scores and both took a hit, Iowa State moreso for almost losing at home.

The final team making the Playoff is once again Boise State, who breaks the 50% so now all of our 12 favored teams are over the 50% line for the first time this year. They face UNLV in a big Mountain West showdown this Friday; we favor the Rebels while the oddsmakers take the Broncos on the road. While the MWC winner is very likely to be the 12th team in the Playoff, the American has several candidates with Army currently on top and 2-loss Tulane also in the mix. Both teams suffered a double-digit loss in odds last weekend as Army beat East Carolina by 17 and Tulane beat Rice by 14—apparently those aren't Playoff-worthy performances. James Madison did the worst, losing to Georgia Southern and shedding 16%. Their Playoff odds are now very slim; they remain favored to finish in the Committee top 25 but they have two conference losses. The Sun Belt is the only conference that still has divisions, and at 1-2 with a loss to 3-0 Georgia Southern they have a very rare path to the SBC title game.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  Chg%
 23  13. LSU                  SEC    6-1   8-4   8.9- 3.1    37.5  +19.7    1.2   +0.8
 12  14. Boise St            *MWC    5-1  10-2  10.2- 1.8    53.7   +8.8    0.6   -0.1
 15  15. Mississippi          SEC    5-2  10-2   9.0- 3.0    35.2   +5.5    3.9   +0.5
 17  16. Kansas St            B12    6-1  10-2   9.6- 2.4    34.7   +8.0    1.4   +0.7
 16  17. Texas A&M            SEC    6-1   9-3   8.9- 3.1    21.6   -2.4    0.6   -0.1
 14  18. SMU                  ACC    6-1  11-1  10.0- 2.0    24.6   -9.4    0.9   -0.1
 18  19. Clemson              ACC    6-1  10-2   9.2- 2.8    20.0   -1.8    0.5   -0.1
 20  20. Washington St        P12    6-1  11-1  10.5- 1.5     0.6   -4.9   <0.1    0.0
 24  21. UNLV                 MWC    6-1  11-1  10.1- 1.9    22.6   +1.6    0.2    0.0
 19  22. Army                *AAc    7-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    12.2  -11.1   <0.1    0.0
 42  23. South Carolina       SEC    4-3   8-4   7.6- 4.4     0.9    0.0    0.1    0.0
 22  24. Tulane               AAc    5-2  10-2   8.9- 3.1     7.3  -10.7   <0.1   -0.2
 21  25. James Madison        SUNe   5-2  10-2   9.3- 2.7     1.7  -15.8    0.0   -0.2

Four SEC hopefuls place in the top 25 beyond the four favored to make the Playoff. LSU tops this bunch but is expected to lose 2 or 3 more regular season games and remain just outside the Playoff cutoff—unless they get some upsets, like this week at 6-1 Texas A&M—a game that features the only two teams unbeaten in conference play. The winner takes a big step toward the SEC title game and a possible auto-bid. Mississippi still ranks high in our power ratings and remains a solid Playoff threat. And South Carolina's 35-9 win over Oklahoma makes them a top 25 favorite but due to having 3 losses their Playoff odds remain around 1%. Thanks to a killer schedule the Gamecocks have just a 1% chance to make the Playoff but a 2% chance to miss a bowl game!

One of those teams South Carolina plays is Clemson, who along with SMU make up Miami's chief competition to win the ACC. Both lost ground last week, Clemson after beating Virginia 48-31 and the Mustangs despite beating Stanford 40-10. Neither team plays Miami nor each other, so even getting to the ACC final would come down to some tiebreaker if both go undefeated in conference play. Kansas State at least gets a shot at Iowa State in the Big Twelve but for now is stuck in 3rd place. Even worse, Washington State has no conference title hopes and therefore 0.6% Playoff Odds, though they are likely to make the Committee top 25 if that's any consolation.

Colorado just misses the top 25 projection but they look bowl-bound after beating Arizona 34-7 on the road. Their Playoff odds are just 1.5% compared to Navy's 9.4% in the American, with 6-1 Memphis being another hopeful from the AAC. And three more ACC teams are just outside the top 25. Louisville just lost to Miami and now has 3 losses, as does Virginia Tech, and undefeated Pittsburgh is expected to finish with 3 losses.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 41  26. Colorado             B12    5-2  10-2   8.5- 3.5     1.5   +0.2   99.3   +7.9 
 31  27. Navy                 AAc    6-0   9-3   9.7- 2.3     9.4   +3.8  100.0   +0.2 
 34  28. Virginia Tech        ACC    4-3   9-3   7.6- 4.4     1.2   +0.2   95.1   +8.6 
 26  29. Louisville           ACC    4-3   8-4   7.4- 4.6     1.8   -9.1   94.9   -1.2 
 27  30. Pittsburgh           ACC    6-0   9-3   8.7- 3.3     4.3   -6.0  100.0    0.0 
 29  31. Memphis              AAc    6-1  10-2   9.7- 2.3     1.8   -1.3  100.0   +0.1 
 28  32. Southern Cal         B10    3-4   7-5   6.6- 5.4    <0.1   -3.0   85.6   -5.8 
 39  33. Wisconsin            B10    5-2   8-4   7.8- 4.2     2.9   -0.6   96.5  +10.7 
 48  34. Western Kentucky    *CUSA   5-2  10-2   9.2- 2.8     0.2   +0.1  >99.9   +0.8 
 44  35. Toledo              *MAC    5-2  10-2   9.0- 3.0     0.3   +0.1   99.9   +0.8 
 55  37. Georgia Southern    *SUNe   5-2  10-2   8.6- 3.4     0.6   +0.5   99.8   +6.0 

After losing to Maryland USC now has a 3-4 record but still manages to have a minuscule shot at the Playoff, while Wisconsin is headed in the other direction on a 3-game win streak. Western Kentucky won the first big battle in the CUSA, beating Sam Houston 31-14, and is very much in control in that conference, while Toledo is the MAC favorite. Neither league has much hope of getting a Playoff team, with their front-runners at 0.2% and 0.3% respectively. Georgia Southern is now in the best position to win the Sun Belt and gains 1/2 of a percent by beating James Madison but their outlook is hazy. So far they only have losses to Boise State and Ole Miss which is impressive, but that clearly puts them below the eventual Mountain West winner, whoever it is.

The SEC is so stacked that if you're not one of their four pegged to make the Playoff and total of eight expected to make the Committee final top 25, you're fighting for bowl eligibility. Below are 5 more SEC teams with varying fortunes. Florida's fortunes went up due to blasting Kentucky 48-20; the Gators gained 23.5% and the Wildcats lost 20%. Arkansas's big loss to LSU knocked their Playoff Odds down to 0.1% but the Razorbacks are still in solid bowl shape; Vanderbilt edged Ball State just 24-14 and also has just a 0.1% Playoff outlook now; and Oklahoma's 3rd loss was a rout and now even their bowl outlook isn't certain.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 62  42. Florida              SEC    4-3   6-6   6.2- 5.8     0.6   +0.4   71.6  +23.5 
 40  45. Arkansas             SEC    4-3   6-6   6.3- 5.7     0.1   -1.5   76.8  -12.5 
 71  47. Maryland             B10    4-3   5-7   6.2- 5.8     0.1    0.0   70.9  +30.9 
 83  49. Michigan St          B10    4-3   6-6   6.6- 5.4     0.0    0.0   85.0  +40.1 
 38  50. Vanderbilt           SEC    5-2   5-7   6.2- 5.8     0.1   -1.2   72.3  -12.7 
 32  56. Oklahoma             SEC    4-3   5-7   5.9- 6.1    <0.1   -3.3   62.4  -27.6 
 72  57. Marshall             SUNe   4-3   8-4   7.1- 4.9    <0.1   +0.1   92.5  +15.7 
 67  58. Central Florida      B12    3-4   6-6   5.8- 6.2    <0.1   -0.1   61.2   +9.4 
 78  59. Baylor               B12    3-4   8-4   6.3- 5.7     0.0   -0.1   74.7  +27.0 
 57  63. Kentucky             SEC    3-4   5-7   5.2- 6.8     0.0   -0.2   35.3  -20.1 
 46  64. Michigan             B10    4-3   6-6   5.5- 6.5     0.0   -0.9   51.1  -29.8 
 80  66. Fresno St            MWC    4-3   8-4   7.3- 4.7     0.0    0.0   94.4  +13.4 

The three Big Ten teams in this range all had momentous odds changes. Maryland beat USC and Michigan State upset Iowa, sending the Terps up 30% to over 70% and the Spartans up an amazing 40% from 45% to 85% bowl certainty. Meanwhile last year's national champ Michigan lost to Illinois 21-7, putting their Playoff Odds at zero and dropping their bowl odds 30% to around 50/50. 

Central Florida's near-win at Iowa State actually increased their bowl odds almost 10%, while Baylor beat Texas Tech 59-35. These teams are at 61% and 75% bowl odds having 3-4 records.

Marshall and Fresno State each got their 4th win, and going from 3-3 to 4-3 is always going to boost your Bowl odds a bunch. Case in point below: TCU beat Utah and gained almost 30% to 75% (the Utes dropped to 4-3 and lost almost 30% to fall below the 50/50 line). West Virginia and Oklahoma State both dropped to 3-4 and are also below 50%.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 50  69. California           ACC    3-4   7-5   6.1- 5.9     0.0   -0.1   72.7  -19.8 
 88  71. TCU                  B12    4-3   7-5   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0   75.9  +29.4 
 66  77. West Virginia        B12    3-4   4-8   5.2- 6.8     0.0   -0.2   41.1  -16.8 
 98  78. Western Michigan     MAC    4-3   6-6   6.8- 5.2     0.0    0.0   87.0  +34.0 
 59  79. Coastal Carolina     SUNe   4-3   7-5   6.6- 5.4     0.0   -0.1   81.3  -11.6 
 95  81. Old Dominion         SUNe   3-4   5-7   5.7- 6.3     0.0    0.0   57.8  +22.5 
 61  82. Utah                 B12    4-3   5-7   5.5- 6.5     0.0   -0.6   47.3  -27.7 
 76  84. Rutgers              B10    4-3   4-8   5.5- 6.5     0.0   -0.1   45.6  -22.7 
 82  86. Northwestern         B10    3-4   5-7   4.9- 7.1     0.0   -0.1   26.3  -13.9 
 92  87. Colorado St          MWC    4-3   7-5   6.8- 5.2     0.0    0.0   87.8  +12.2 
 79  88. Oklahoma St          B12    3-4   5-7   4.9- 7.1     0.0   -0.1   30.2  -11.8 
 96  91. South Alabama        SUNw   3-4   5-7   5.7- 6.3     0.0    0.0   56.2  +14.4 

Western Michigan (another newly 4-3 team) was the big gainer above, adding 34% by beating Buffalo in a MAC contest. The Sun Belt had winners and losers too, the winners being Old Dominion (beat Texas State) and South Alabama (beat Troy) who moved above 50% while Coastal Carolina lost to Louisiana-Lafayette but remained above 80%. Two Big Ten teams, Rutgers (upset by UCLA at home) and Northwestern (lost to Wisconsin by 20) had bad weekends, too.

California (above) had over a 90% chance to make a bowl game last week, while North Carolina State (below) was 3-4 with just a 1 in 6 shot but the Wolfpack came through with a 24-23 upset on the road, sending Cal down 20% and NC State up 32.5. Cal is still in good shape while NC State is borderline now. Wake Forest barely got a win over surprising UConn but that put them at 3-4, boosting their odds from a miserable 3.9% to a still-rough 17.3%.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
100  92. North Carolina St    ACC    4-4   5-7   5.5- 6.5     0.0    0.0   48.2  +32.5 
 81  94. Arizona              B12    3-4   4-8   4.9- 7.1     0.0    0.0   31.1  -16.9 
 89  95. Auburn               SEC    2-5   4-8   3.9- 8.1     0.0    0.0    6.8  -11.5 
 90  96. Nevada               MWC    3-5   6-7   5.5- 7.5     0.0    0.0   10.2  -35.5 
 87  98. Florida Int'l        CUSA   2-5   5-7   5.4- 6.6     0.0    0.0   48.3  -29.1 
102 101. Arkansas St          SUNw   4-3   5-7   5.6- 6.4     0.0    0.0   51.4  +14.6 
115 102. Wake Forest          ACC    3-4   3-9   4.5- 7.5     0.0    0.0   17.3  +13.4 
108 103. East Carolina        AAc    3-4   6-6   5.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0   42.5  +10.2 
 94 104. Florida Atlantic     AAc    2-5   5-7   4.7- 7.3     0.0    0.0   28.5  -27.9 
 97 108. Houston              B12    2-5   2-10  3.3- 8.7     0.0    0.0    3.0  -13.8 
117 109. Texas-San Antonio    AAc    3-4   5-7   4.8- 7.2     0.0    0.0   25.1  +15.4 
111 113. Central Michigan     MAC    3-4   4-8   4.2- 7.8     0.0    0.0    9.9  -13.2 
105 117. Louisiana Tech       CUSA   2-4   4-8   4.3- 7.7     0.0    0.0   11.1  -28.8

Nevada had the roughest week, losing to Fresno State and dropping them to 3-5, down 35%. The Wolf Pack play 13 games so they need 7 wins, so they must go 4-1 or better from here. They play both Boise State and UNLV so their odds of getting to 7 wins are just 10%, down from 45% a week ago. 

Both Florida International and Florida Atlantic fell to 2-5, shedding almost 30% each. FIU is in much better shape though with a far easier schedule left in the CUSA so the Panthers are about 50/50 in bowl game odds while the Owls are more like 30%. 

Arizona lost big to Colorado and dropped to near 30% odds, another new Big Twelve team, Houston, shed almost all of their remaining odds, falling from 16.8% to 3.0% after falling to Kansas 42-14. Auburn's hopes for a good SEC season were dashed again with a close loss to Missouri; the 2-5 Tigers have less than 10% chance to get to six wins.

2024 post-week 7 Playoff outlook: Ole Miss out, BYU in; Georgia drops out!

Pretty wild week, lots of close calls but few real upsets though Oregon beating Ohio State counts I suppose, and Ole Miss bit the dust again. Here's how it changed our Projected Top 25 and Playoff Projections:

Ohio State only slipped one spot and 1.1% from last week with the 1-point loss at Oregon; the Ducks moved up to #4, adding 12.2% to sit at 83.6%, still lower odds than the Buckeyes 90.5%. Essentially we're saying an Ohio State win in a rematch in Indianapolis is the most likely outcome in the Big Ten race. Other Big Ten contenders include upstart Indiana who was idle this week but benefits from the full exit of pre-season influence and jumps to 67%. Penn State survived—just barely—at USC in a big comeback overtime win; they tread water but slip back into the 12-team projection, giving the Big Ten four teams this week.

The SEC had 5 teams last week but is down to three. At the top Texas, who thrashed Oklahoma 34-4, is far and away the #1 team, with a crazy 96.6% chance to make the Playoff and 30% chance to win the national title. Alabama survived a threat at home from South Carolina 27-25; despite being #5 now they have a solid 10.7% chance to win it all based on their power ratings (their performance the last 2 weeks notwithstanding). Tennessee beat Florida in overtime and shed more than 10% of their odds as a result, but they're still in and they host Alabama this weekend, the loser getting a 2nd loss.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%  Champ%
  2   1. Texas               *SEC    6-0  12-0  11.2- 0.8    96.6   +8.2  100.0   30.1 
  1   2. Ohio State          *B10    5-1  11-1  10.3- 1.7    90.5   -1.1  >99.9   17.2 
  3   3. Miami FL            *ACC    6-0  12-0  11.1- 0.9    82.1   +4.3  100.0    6.4 
  5   4. Oregon               B10    6-0  12-0  10.7- 1.3    83.6  +12.2  100.0    1.8 
  4   5. Alabama              SEC    5-1  10-2   9.7- 2.3    77.5   +1.7  >99.9   10.7 
  7   6. Iowa St             *B12    6-0  12-0  10.7- 1.3    73.0  +11.4  100.0    3.8 
 10   7. Notre Dame           Ind    5-1  11-1   9.9- 2.1    72.2  +14.3  >99.9    4.7 
 11   8. Indiana              B10    6-0  11-1  10.8- 1.2    67.1  +16.9  100.0    3.8 
 12   9. Brigham Young        B12    6-0  12-0  10.5- 1.5    60.2  +10.9  100.0    1.7 
  6  10. Tennessee            SEC    5-1  11-1   9.6- 2.4    57.3  -11.5  >99.9    7.4 
 13  11. Penn State           B10    6-0  10-2   9.8- 2.2    44.0   -0.1  100.0    0.7 
 14  12. Boise St            *MWC    5-1  10-2  10.1- 1.9    44.9   -1.7  >99.9    0.7 
  9  13. Georgia              SEC    5-1   8-4   8.6- 3.4    36.6  -19.6  >99.9    2.4 
 21  14. SMU                  ACC    5-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    34.0  +18.3   99.9    1.0 
  8  15. Mississippi          SEC    5-2  10-2   8.9- 3.1    29.7  -31.0   99.9    3.4 

Unlike the Vols, Mississippi lost in overtime (to LSU) and as a result they're out of the projection, losing 31% of their odds. And even Georgia—tepid 41-31 winners over lowly Mississippi State—lost nearly 20% of their odds and for the first time this year is not favored to make the Playoff. That can change big time next week as they face #1 Texas.

Miami remains the solid ACC favorite, with SMU now looking like their top competitor. Iowa State dispatched West Virginia and stayed on top in the Big Twelve with BYU not far back and also in the 12-team projection. Notre Dame's 49-7 win over Stanford kept them firmly in the seedings.

Boise State again rounds out the projection at #12, but their 28-7 win at Hawaii didn't increase their numbers. Their main competition for the last spot now appears to come from—get this—Army! The Black Knights are 6-0 after beating UAB 44-10 and have nearly a 1 in 4 shot at making the Playoff. Their problem (and benefit) is an easy schedule, though they will face Notre Dame. James Madison (Sun Belt) is another possibility for the 5th auto-bid spot, and Tulane could beat out Army in the American, while UNLV will test Boise State in the Mountain West.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg  Bowl%  Champ%
 17  16. Texas A&M            SEC    5-1   9-3   8.7- 3.3    24.0   +2.6  >99.9    0.7 
 15  17. Kansas St            B12    5-1  10-2   8.9- 3.1    26.7   -5.1   99.4    0.7 
 16  18. Clemson              ACC    5-1  10-2   9.0- 3.0    21.8   -5.7  >99.9    0.6 
 27  19. Army                *AAc    6-0  11-1  10.6- 1.4    23.3  +15.5  100.0    0.1 
 18  20. Washington St        P12    5-1  11-1  10.3- 1.7     5.5   -7.4  >99.9   <0.1 
 22  21. James Madison       *SUNe   5-1  11-1  10.2- 1.8    17.5   +4.3  >99.9    0.2 
 20  22. Tulane               AAc    4-2  10-2   9.2- 2.8    18.0   +1.7   99.9    0.3 
 24  23. LSU                  SEC    5-1   7-5   7.8- 4.2    17.8   +4.1   95.5    0.4 
 19  24. UNLV                 MWC    5-1  11-1   9.9- 2.1    21.0   -6.7  >99.9    0.2 
 28  25. Iowa                 B10    4-2  10-2   8.7- 3.3     9.4   +5.3   99.2    0.3  

Kansas State edged Colorado which didn't help their outlook; interestingly at 5-1 there's still a 0.6% chance they don't get to six wins in the parity-locked Big Twelve. Compare that to Clemson's 99.9%+ chance to reach six wins (they play The Citadel in November) and LSU's 4.5% chance to go 0-6 on their remaining slate! Also interesting is Washington State's #20 projected finish but just 5.5% chance to make the Playoff (no conference championship game) and less than 0.1% chance to win the national title. New top 25 member Iowa (beat Washington 40-16) has almost 10% Playoff odds and 0.3% national title odds.

Since I've added national title odds only for the top 25, it's worth noting that the two teams just outside the top 25 have double digit Playoff odds, both being in the ACC where the conference is pretty up for grabs and the winner will get one of the auto-bids. Louisville's national title odds are 0.4%, Pittsburgh's are just 0.1% due to their different power ratings (the Cards are #11, Pitt #38), which is also why their Playoff odds are similar despite Louisville having 2 losses (the Cards face Miami this weekend). Speaking of losses, USC took their 3rd loss but still has a 3.1% chance to make the expanded Playoff.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 30  26. Louisville           ACC    4-2   8-4   7.9- 4.1    10.9   +3.3   96.1  +11.7
 41  27. Pittsburgh           ACC    6-0   8-4   8.9- 3.1    10.3   +5.8  100.0   +5.6
 25  28. Southern Cal         B10    3-3   8-4   7.3- 4.7     3.1   -6.8   91.4   +3.1
 36  29. Memphis              AAc    5-1  10-2   9.5- 2.5     3.1   +0.3  >99.9   +0.6
 29  31. Navy                 AAc    5-0   9-3   9.1- 2.9     5.6   -1.8   99.8   +0.2
 58  35. Northern Illinois   *MAC    4-2   9-3   8.5- 3.5     0.3   +0.2   99.1   +7.8
 52  37. Arizona St           B12    5-1   8-4   7.8- 4.2     4.1   +1.8   95.1  +15.7
 65  38. Vanderbilt           SEC    4-2   7-5   6.7- 5.3     1.3   +0.9   85.0  +36.8
 81  39. Wisconsin            B10    4-2   8-4   7.1- 4.9     3.5   +3.1   85.8  +37.2
 60  43. Cincinnati           B12    4-2   7-5   7.1- 4.9     2.2   +1.0   87.2  +17.7

Memphis and Navy are contenders in the American conference, with Navy only having 11 games before the AAC title game which makes things very weird vis-a-vis Army who has become the conference favorite. I'll cross that bridge if it becomes too hard to ignore. Northern Illinois is back as the Mac favorite but their odds of reaching the Playoff are very slim. The four teams above (at the bottom) all gained big in bowl game odds: Arizona State beat Utah, Vanderbilt upset Kentucky on the road and gained 36.8%, Wisconsin crushed Rutgers 42-7 and gained 37.2%, and Cincinnati topped UCF. 

The C-USA winner is very unlikely to get a Playoff auto-bid but there's a chance for any conference champ. Right now Sam Houston State is our slight favorite neck-and-neck with Western Kentucky, and the two play Wednesday night. The rest of the teams below are listed due to raising their bowl odds a great deal with a few exceptions: Kentucky's bowl odds took a 29% hit after losing to Vanderbilt, Utah lost to Arizona State, and Washington's loss to Iowa was bad enough to put them under 50% odds.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 42  47. Sam Houston St      *CUSA   5-1  10-2   9.0- 3.0     0.2   -0.8   99.8   +0.1
 63  48. Western Kentucky     CUSA   4-2   9-3   8.4- 3.6     0.1    0.0   99.1   +5.5
 76  49. Minnesota            B10    4-3   7-5   6.7- 5.3     0.1    0.0   82.2  +33.5
 85  51. Buffalo              MAC    4-2   9-3   8.3- 3.7     0.0    0.0   98.8  +22.2
 70  55. Georgia Southern     SUNe   4-2   8-4   7.5- 4.5     0.1    0.0   93.8  +13.0
 35  57. Kentucky             SEC    3-3   5-7   5.7- 6.3     0.2   -1.3   55.4  -29.4
 73  60. Georgia Tech         ACC    5-2   6-6   6.6- 5.4     0.2   +0.1   91.4  +25.1
 32  61. Utah                 B12    4-2   6-6   6.5- 5.5     0.6   -8.1   75.0  -14.6
 87  62. Florida              SEC    3-3   6-6   5.4- 6.6     0.2   +0.1   48.1  +25.4
 62  68. Washington           B10    4-3   5-7   5.6- 6.4    <0.1   -0.2   48.7  -14.0
 94  69. Miami OH             MAC    2-4   7-5   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0   79.9  +36.2

On the upside, Minnesota added 33.5% by beating UCLA (going from 3-3 to 4-3 helps a lot); Buffalo upset Toledo and looks all but certain to qualify; Georgia Tech beat North Carolina but their remaining schedule is killer (including Notre Dame, Miami, and Georgia!) so they're only at 91.4% despite having 5 wins. Florida lost to Tennessee in overtime but their bowl odds jumped from about 1 in 4 to around 1 in 2 with their record at 3-3. And Miami of Ohio was underwater last week but now things look good after dispatching Eastern Michigan 38-14. Despite being 2-4, they're favored in 5 games and have four home games left.

Below, Liberty is 5-0 but their Playoff odds have fallen to less than 1 in 1000 because quite frankly, they aren't very good. We now expect them to lose three games remaining on their easy schedule, and even going undefeated and winning the C-USA probably doesn't get them a bid. The rest of the field below is out of the Playoff picture too for all intents and purposes and focused on bowl qualification. Maryland and Rutgers both took big hits with losses but the damage to the Terps was horrific in their 37-10 loss at home to Northwestern; their bowl odds dropped from 80% to 40% as our power rating finally figured out they aren't a great team. Northwestern added 32.4% after having single-digit odds last week. 

Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 43  70. Liberty              CUSA   5-0   8-3   8.0- 3.0    <0.1   -1.8   97.4   -1.1
 39  71. Maryland             B10    3-3   4-8   5.2- 6.8     0.1   -3.7   40.0  -40.6
 59  74. Virginia             ACC    4-2   5-7   5.7- 6.3     0.1   -1.1   51.8  -20.6
 88  75. Jacksonville St      CUSA   3-3   8-4   6.9- 5.1     0.0    0.0   84.2  +22.4
 31  76. Rutgers              B10    4-2   6-6   6.2- 5.8    <0.1   -4.5   68.3  -26.1
 83  78. Baylor               B12    2-4   6-6   5.3- 6.7    <0.1   +0.1   47.7  +10.7
 47  81. Arizona              B12    3-3   4-8   5.5- 6.5     0.0   -2.2   48.0  -32.5
108  82. Northwestern         B10    3-3   5-7   5.3- 6.7    <0.1   +0.1   40.2  +32.4
 55  84. Bowling Green        MAC    2-4   7-5   6.1- 5.9     0.0    0.0   70.7  -23.5

Arizona lost to BYU 41-19 dropping them to 3-3 and putting them at about 50/50 for bowl qualification, and only favored in one more game going forward in the Big Twelve (Baylor's odds at 2-4 are similar).  

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
106  90. Nevada               MWC    3-4   7-6   6.3- 6.7     0.0    0.0   45.7  +31.9
 80  91. Oregon St            P12    4-2   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.0   -0.1   67.4  -11.7
101  92. Colorado St          MWC    3-3   7-5   6.4- 5.6     0.0    0.0   75.6  +30.5
 74  93. South Florida        AAc    2-4   5-7   5.4- 6.6     0.0   -0.1   49.2  -28.6
100  94. Florida Atlantic     AAc    2-4   8-4   5.7- 6.3     0.0    0.0   56.4  +13.8
 93 100. North Carolina St    ACC    3-4   4-8   4.4- 7.6     0.0    0.0   15.7  -19.4
 90 102. Arkansas St          SUNw   3-3   4-8   5.1- 6.9     0.0    0.0   36.8  -26.5
 95 108. East Carolina        AAc    3-3   5-7   5.0- 7.0     0.0    0.0   32.3  -23.7
113 110. San Diego St         MWC    3-3   5-7   5.0- 7.0     0.0    0.0   30.7  +11.3
 99 115. Wake Forest          ACC    2-4   2-10  3.3- 8.7     0.0    0.0    3.9  -15.5

The teams above mostly lost bowl odds, with some exceptions. Wake Forest falls under 5% after losing big to Clemson. And Nevada beat Oregon State, sending the teams in different directions.

post-week 6: Chaos? Alabama, Tennessee stay in Playoff after loss; Penn State out after win

I predicted chaos on week 6 and I got it—just not the games I looked for. And neither Alabama nor Tennessee were critically wounded either for their losses. Let's take a look.

Alabama fell to Vanderbilt, a result I didn't even thing about but should have since it was a classic letdown game. The Tide fall from their top spot to #4, and it's clear they were too close to the sun at 93.3%(!) Playoff Odds last week; that's now 75.8%, still pretty lofty. Tennessee was hurt almost as much for losing to Arkansas but they're still #6. Idle Georgia dropped 2 spots but added 1% to their odds, while Ole Miss gained over 20% after crushing South Carolina, and the downgrade of the Tide and the Vols didn't hurt either as it makes a Rebel conference championship more likely. Texas was idle and moved up to #2 and is in the driver's seat as the only undefeated SEC team.

Ohio State took over at #1 after beating Iowa 35-7. The Big Ten still has FOUR undefeated teams but only three Playoff teams as Penn State's tepid 27-11 win over UCLA caused them to slip out of the Playoff while 6-0 Indiana moved into the last spot. The Hoosiers are for real, will it last? Their win at Northwestern (41-24) wasn't their best performance but their power ratings are great. Oregon had their last warmup before hosting Ohio State next week; that one is the Big Ten's equivalent of Georgia-Alabama this year.

                                      Projected Record              Odds 10/07/2024
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  2   1. Ohio State          *B10    5-0  12-0  11.0- 1.0    91.6   +8.3  >99.9    0.0
  4   2. Texas               *SEC    5-0  12-0  10.8- 1.2    88.4   +5.7  >99.9    0.0
  6   3. Miami FL            *ACC    6-0  12-0  11.1- 0.9    77.8  +11.2  100.0   +0.1
  1   4. Alabama              SEC    4-1  10-2   9.7- 2.3    75.8  -17.5  >99.9    0.0
  5   5. Oregon               B10    5-0  11-1  10.3- 1.7    71.4   -2.5  >99.9    0.0
  3   6. Tennessee            SEC    4-1  10-2   9.8- 2.2    68.8  -14.1  >99.9    0.0
  9   7. Iowa St             *B12    5-0  12-0  10.3- 1.7    61.6  +12.3   99.9   +0.7
 11   8. Mississippi          SEC    5-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    60.7  +20.7  >99.9   +0.6
  7   9. Georgia              SEC    4-1   9-3   9.1- 2.9    56.2   +1.0   99.9    0.0
  8  10. Notre Dame           Ind    4-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    57.9   +2.0   99.8   -0.1
 14  11. Indiana              B10    6-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    50.2  +17.4  100.0   +0.1
 13  12. Brigham Young        B12    5-0  11-1  10.1- 1.9    49.3  +12.1   99.9   +0.3
 10  13. Penn State           B10    5-0  10-2   9.5- 2.5    44.1   +0.2   99.9   +0.5

Iowa State beat Baylor 43-21 and gained another 12% toward their Playoff tuition. They're over 60% now and the clear Big Twelve favorite here, though BYU was up a similar amount this week despite being idle. The Cougars have a great résumé, maybe the best in the country with wins over K-State and SMU. 

Miami was almost part of this weekend's chaos but they overcame a 25 point deficit to beat Cal; the Hurricanes are looking like a team of destiny this year, one of those teams that lucks their way to a national title. The Canes are up 11.2% and are bowl eligible at 6-0, will their miracle run continue? We'll have to wait another week as they are idle this weekend. Notre Dame was idle last week but remains in the top ten. 

Boise State should have gained more than 1.1% in Playoff Odds this week, doesn't it seem? Especially in a week where their toughest Mountain West foe (UNLV) lost to Syracuse and another rival for the 5th auto-bid (James Madison) was upset. But though both teams shed double-digits in Playoff Odds they each slipped only 3 spots. There just aren't that many candidates for the 5th spot. 2-loss Tulane even jumped back into consideration, beating UAB 71-20.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 12  14. Boise St            *MWC    4-1  10-2  10.0- 2.0    46.6   +1.1  >99.9    0.0
 15  15. Kansas St            B12    4-1  10-2   8.9- 3.1    31.8   +0.4   98.3   -0.2
 18  16. Clemson              ACC    4-1  11-1   9.0- 3.0    27.5   +2.2   99.3   +0.8
 29  17. Texas A&M            SEC    5-1   9-3   8.8- 3.2    21.4  +15.7  >99.9   +3.5
 20  18. Washington St        P12    4-1  11-1   9.9- 2.1    12.9   +2.2  >99.9   +0.1
 16  19. UNLV                 MWC    4-1  11-1   9.9- 2.1    27.7  -10.5   99.9    0.0
 24  20. Tulane              *AAc    4-2  10-2   9.1- 2.9    16.3   +9.6   99.9   +0.8
 27  21. SMU                  ACC    5-1  11-1   9.3- 2.7    15.7   +8.2   99.6   +5.1
 19  22. James Madison       *SUNe   4-1  11-1   9.9- 2.1    13.2  -11.0  >99.9    0.0
 32  23. Texas Tech           B12    5-1  10-2   8.6- 3.4     9.1   +2.4   98.6   +8.3
 26  24. LSU                  SEC    4-1   8-4   7.5- 4.5    13.7   +2.8   88.4   -1.1
 17  25. Southern Cal         B10    3-2   9-3   7.5- 4.5     9.9  -23.9   88.3   -6.1

Four new teams joined the projected Final Committee Top 25, with Texas A&M back in the mix after crushing Missouri 41-10. LSU snuck back in, making it 7 SEC teams in the top 25. SMU beat Louisville and took over as the #3 ACC contender (#2 is Clemson, who has been steadily moving up since their opening loss to Georgia). And Texas Tech beat Arizona to become a contender in the Big Twelve, though Kansas State is much closer to the top two than the Red Raiders. Note that Tech's only loss is to Washington State, still hanging around after their loss to Boise, hoping to slip in the top twelve somehow. Meanwhile USC took a dive with their 2nd loss, shedding around 24% and now under 10% Playoff Odds at 3-2.

Oklahoma is just outside the top 25 and a win over Texas this weekend would be just what the doctor ordered for the Sooners. Army and Navy remained on a collision course with big wins (combined 83-14), the only question is whether they will play for the AAC title before their regular season game on December 14th. Four teams dropped out of the Top 25: Louisville (2nd loss, to SMU); Utah (idle; Oklahoma State's loss hurt them); Missouri (lost 41-10, and they were on the decline from their pre-season projection anyway); and Michigan (2nd loss, to Washington, puts last year's national champs at 1.1% Playoff Odds).

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 28  26. Oklahoma             SEC    4-1   7-5   7.4- 4.6     9.8   +2.3   91.9   +3.1
 39  27. Army                 AAc    5-0  10-2   9.9- 2.1     7.8   +4.6  >99.9   +1.2
 45  29. Navy                 AAc    5-0  10-2   9.1- 2.9     7.4   +3.8   99.6   +3.1
 21  30. Louisville           ACC    3-2   8-4   7.2- 4.8     7.6  -12.4   84.4   -7.7
 25  32. Utah                 B12    4-1   9-3   7.6- 4.4     8.7   -6.0   89.6   -2.5
 50  33. Virginia Tech        ACC    3-3   8-4   7.1- 4.9     2.5   +1.7   86.9  +15.8
 22  37. Missouri             SEC    4-1   8-4   7.6- 4.4     2.9  -12.0   94.1   -3.3
 67  40. Arkansas             SEC    4-2   6-6   7.1- 4.9     1.8   +1.3   90.2  +29.4
 56  41. Pittsburgh           ACC    5-0   8-4   7.9- 4.1     4.5   +2.5   94.4  +12.9
 43  42. Sam Houston St      *CUSA   5-1  11-1   9.2- 2.8     1.0   -0.6   99.7   +1.9
 34  43. Liberty              CUSA   4-0  10-1   8.9- 2.1     1.9   -1.9   98.5   -0.5
 23  45. Michigan             B10    4-2   7-5   6.7- 5.3     1.1   -9.1   82.7   -8.0

We all know what Arkansas did to jump from #67 to #40, up almost 30% in bowl odds: upset Tennessee. But Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh of the ACC had big moves, too. The Hokies beat Stanford 31-7 and the Panthers won at North Carolina 34-24. All three now look like solid bowl teams, whereas last week they were all a lot more marginal. And we have a changing of the guard in the C-USA with 5-1 Sam Houston State looking slightly better than 4-0 Liberty, who hasn't played a strong game yet (the Flames played Tuesday night and needed overtime to edge FAU).

Two more of last week's upset hopefuls appear below. California didn't get the big one but still added to their bowl odds for their strong performance. Vanderbilt did get the big one and may have saved their bowl hopes with it; they're now almost 50/50, needing 3 wins on a tough slate to get it. They just beat Alabama so should that be so hard?

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 47  46. California           ACC    3-2   8-4   7.5- 4.5     1.4   -1.3   90.1   +3.5
 51  48. Nebraska             B10    5-1   7-5   7.3- 4.7     1.0   -0.5   94.5  +11.1
 52  49. Toledo              *MAC    4-1   9-3   8.6- 3.4     0.6    0.0   97.4   +4.2
 68  51. Syracuse             ACC    4-1   6-6   7.1- 4.9     1.7   +0.7   82.0  +21.1
 58  52. Arizona St           B12    4-1   5-7   6.9- 5.1     2.3   -0.5   79.4  +15.3
 73  59. Virginia             ACC    4-1   5-7   6.5- 5.5     1.2   +0.5   72.4  +19.6
 75  62. Washington           B10    4-2   5-7   6.0- 6.0     0.3    0.0   62.7  +20.9
 95  65. Vanderbilt           SEC    3-2   4-8   5.6- 6.4     0.4   +0.4   48.2  +33.1

The other teams above all have solid bowl hopes. Nebraska is almost a lock at 5-1, while fellow Big Ten team Washington was touch-and-go before upsetting Michigan. In the ACC Syracuse's win over UNLV puts them in very good shape and Virginia gains nearly 20% after beating Boston College. Arizona State is 4-1 after topping Kansas. And Toledo is 4-1 and the favorite to win the MAC, which ranks last among the conferences and won't be in the Playoff conversation.

Three Big Twelve teams saw their fortunes take a dive last week. First, Oklahoma State fell from over 75% bowl odds to under 50%—down 34.1%—after their 38-14 loss to West Virginia, who gained almost as much themselves. TCU is underwater at 41.4% after an embarrassing loss at home, 30-19, to 2-4 Houston, while Central Florida is still above 50% after losing at Florida. The Gators kept their bowl hopes (22.7%) alive with the win.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 36  67. Central Florida      B12    3-2   6-6   5.8- 6.2     0.6   -6.5   56.5  -21.9
 86  68. West Virginia        B12    3-2   5-7   5.8- 6.2     0.8   +0.6   56.4  +29.8
 88  69. Louisiana-Monroe     SUNw   4-1   5-7   7.2- 4.8     0.2   +0.1   87.0  +29.3
 72  73. Georgia Tech         ACC    4-2   6-6   6.1- 5.9     0.1   -0.2   66.3  +11.5
 90  76. Minnesota            B10    3-3   4-8   5.5- 6.5    <0.1    0.0   48.7  +21.1
 44  79. Oklahoma St          B12    3-3   4-8   5.4- 6.6     0.1   -3.1   45.0  -34.1
 57  84. TCU                  B12    3-3   4-8   5.3- 6.7    <0.1   -1.0   41.4  -29.3
 97  87. Florida              SEC    3-2   4-8   4.6- 7.4    <0.1    0.0   22.7  +10.1

UL-Monroe upset James Madison and that puts the Warhawks in great shape for a bowl game. Georgia Tech is looking pretty good, too, after handing Duke their first loss of the season. Minnesota's upset of USC puts them at around 50/50 for a bowl game, and a very meager <0.1% to make the Playoff at 3 losses.

Most of the teams below were low and fell further, with Jacksonville State one of the exceptions. The Gamecocks beat Kennesaw 63-24 and now look to finish at 6-6. Charlotte is the other team jumping from triple digits ranking to double; they beat East Carolina 55-24, knocking the Pirates down to near 50/50.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
100  88. Jacksonville St      CUSA   2-3   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0    0.0   61.8  +22.3
 84  91. South Alabama        SUNw   2-4   6-6   5.3- 6.7     0.0   -0.1   44.6  -14.8
 80  93. North Carolina St    ACC    3-3   4-8   5.0- 7.0     0.0   -0.1   35.1  -21.5
 71  95. East Carolina        AAc    3-3   6-6   5.7- 6.3     0.0   -0.1   56.0  -27.5
112  97. UNC-Charlotte        AAc    3-3   4-8   5.1- 6.9     0.0    0.0   36.2  +19.9
 85  98. Stanford             ACC    2-3   3-9   4.2- 7.8     0.0   -0.1   18.0  -16.9
 99 111. Hawai`i              MWC    2-3   5-7   4.4- 7.6     0.0   -0.1    6.6  -11.3
114 124. Tulsa                AAc    2-4   2-10  3.6- 8.4     0.0    0.0    8.3  -12.5

But the rest of the lower ranks just got worse. South Alabama fell to Arkansas State 18-16 in an upset, enough to endanger their bowl plans. Two ACC teams, NC State and Stanford, suffered losses to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, respectively, and were heavily downgraded as a result. Tulsa had only 20% odds and lost the majority of that by losing to Army by 42. And Hawaii fell to San Diego State, a game they really needed for their bowl hopes. Now 2-3, with wins over two FCS schools, the Warriors need to win 5 of their last 7 to go 7-5 to reach a bowl game. With Washington State, Boise State, and UNLV among them, you can see why their odds are just 6.6%.

2024 week 6 preview: No good games!

There are pretty much no good games this weekend. You know what that means—there is going to be a rash of crazy upsets. Last week was by the book, this weekend is going to be chaos.

Here are my picks for a wild and crazy weekend:

Iowa over Ohio State (-18.5)    (nope)

Arkansas over Tennessee (-14)    UPSET!

Washington over Michigan (+1.5)    UPSET (?)

South Carolina over Ole Miss (-9)    (nope)

Air Force over Navy (-10)    (nope)

Looks like Washington is favored to beat Michigan (makes sense, they're close in my power rating and playing at Wash) so I'll add:

Baylor over Iowa State (-11)    (nope)

Let's see how many of these happen.

Sunday post-mortem:

Welp, almost none of those happened. Two of six isn't that bad when trying to pick big upsets but I missed the big one, Alabama's loss to Vandy, which I didn't even consider a possibility. Should have, due to the "letdown game" theory.

I did pick two top ten teams to lose (which counts oddsmakers underdog Michigan). Missouri lost too, but that was an intra-top 25 game—the only one on the schedule—so it didn't seem eligible to be called an upset either.

Miami very nearly became the 5th top ten team to lose but rallied to beat Cal. I'm telling you, this Miami team is the opposite of snakebit and might be on their way to a miracle season.

Funny, I predicted a chaotic week and I see people calling it a crazy week full of upsets, but it doesn't feel like it. Other than Alabama the upsets weren't that big. Tennessee losing is a big deal but not that huge. Missouri and Michigan are pretty minor despite being in the top ten.

But I'll take it, even if I got the specifics wrong it probably counts as a weekend of chaos.

2024 post-week 5 report: No Playoff change despite big SEC games

The biggest game of the year so far was a wild one but in the end it was just about what we expected so there isn't much fallout from Alabama's crazy 41-34 win. Ole Miss lost but they're still in (for now). Not much happened except for some shuffling around and adjusting odds for the Projected Top 25 and projected 12-team Playoff.

Alabama did gain quite a bit in Playoff Odds, a bit surprising but now they're well above 90%! I didn't expect to see that until they were 6-0 at least. Georgia's odds dropped just 2% and they're still over 50%. They even moved up a spot thanks to Kentucky's upset of Mississippi, the real loser for the week down 23.7% but still the last at-large selection—if the SEC can really get 5 teams in. Tennessee (up almost 10% despite not playing) and Texas (down a bit after a tepid win over Mississippi State) are clearly ahead of Ole Miss at this point if the conference has "only" 4 bids.

Ohio State is still the standard bearer for the Big Ten's teams, and the Buckeyes are at #2 after trouncing Michigan State 38-7. Oregon beat UCLA 34-13 and stayed at #5, while Penn State struggled early with Illinois before beating the Illini 21-7. The Lions a bit of ground in playoff odds while the Ducks gained. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  1   1. Alabama             *SEC    4-0  11-1  10.9- 1.1    93.3  +10.7  >99.9    0.0
  3   2. Ohio State          *B10    4-0  12-0  10.7- 1.3    83.3   +5.9  >99.9    0.0
  4   3. Tennessee            SEC    4-0  11-1  10.7- 1.3    82.9   +9.5  >99.9    0.0
  2   4. Texas                SEC    5-0  12-0  10.8- 1.2    82.7   -0.2  >99.9    0.0
  5   5. Oregon               B10    4-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    73.9   +3.6   99.9   +0.3
  6   6. Miami FL            *ACC    5-0  12-0  10.8- 1.2    66.6   +1.8  >99.9    0.0
  8   7. Georgia              SEC    3-1   9-3   9.2- 2.8    55.2   -2.0   99.9   +0.1
  9   8. Notre Dame           Ind    4-1  11-1   9.8- 2.2    55.9   +3.0   99.9   +0.3
 11   9. Iowa St             *B12    4-0  12-0   9.9- 2.1    49.3   +6.4   99.2   +1.9
 10  10. Penn State           B10    4-0  10-2   9.7- 2.3    43.9   -4.5   99.4   +0.4
  7  11. Mississippi          SEC    4-1  11-1   9.3- 2.7    40.0  -23.7   99.3   -0.5
 16  12. Boise St            *MWC    3-1  11-1   9.8- 2.2    45.5  +14.0   99.9   +1.3

Outside of the SEC and Big Ten, Miami's miracle finish kept them firmly in the race and the Hurricanes now have a 2 in 3 chance to make the 12-team field. Notre Dame got a solid win over Louisville (31-24) and has playoff odds similar to Georgia's. Iowa State remained the favorite in the parity-plagued Big Twelve with a shutout of Houston.

Boise State won the game that I called the "impact" game of the week and gained 14% in Playoff Odds, enough to put them in the top 12 (no more charity for the Mountain West). Boise beat Washington State 45-24 but the Cougars remain in the hunt—at least for a top 25 finish. Their Playoff odds were roughly cut in half as expected as they have no conference championship game, unlike James Madison who soared to #19 after beating Ball State 63-7. But they're less of a threat to Boise and fellow Mountain West team UNLV, who lost their quarterback to a NIL dispute but still thrashed Fresno State 59-14. The Rebels jumped into the top 25 at #16 and the Boise-UNLV combo is going to make it hard for any other conference champ to nab that 5th conference playoff auto-bid. Tulane, for example, just entered the conversation but has single-digit playoff odds because their 2 losses already drag them down, meaning the American is unlikely to have a Playoff team this year.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 23  13. Brigham Young        B12    5-0  10-2   9.6- 2.4    37.2  +18.3   99.6   +4.6
 19  14. Indiana              B10    5-0  11-1  10.0- 2.0    32.8  +14.0   99.9   +1.2
 21  15. Kansas St            B12    4-1  10-2   9.0- 3.0    31.4  +12.3   98.5   +4.5
 26  16. UNLV                 MWC    4-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    38.2  +19.7  >99.9   +3.2
 13  17. Southern Cal         B10    3-1  10-2   8.5- 3.5    33.8   +3.7   94.4   +2.7
 15  18. Clemson              ACC    3-1  11-1   9.0- 3.0    25.3   +1.7   98.5   +2.5
 25  19. James Madison       *SUNe   4-0  12-0  10.6- 1.4    24.2  +11.0   99.9   +0.9
 14  20. Washington St        P12    4-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    10.7   -8.2   99.8   -0.1
 17  21. Louisville           ACC    3-1   9-3   8.1- 3.9    20.0   -6.6   92.1   +0.4
 20  22. Missouri             SEC    4-0   9-3   8.5- 3.5    14.9   -1.1   97.4   -0.4
 22  23. Michigan             B10    4-1   8-4   7.4- 4.6    10.2   -4.8   90.7   +2.3
 33  24. Tulane              *AAc    3-2  10-2   8.8- 3.2     6.7   +2.4   99.1   +4.7
 12  25. Utah                 B12    4-1   9-3   8.0- 4.0    14.7  -22.5   92.1   -5.2

The Big Twelve is pretty wide open, and BYU and Kansas State made big gains last weekend. The Cougars held off Baylor while the Wildcats beat Oklahoma State 42-20, a result that also helped BYU since the Cougars have a 38-9 win over the Wildcats. Utah went the other direction after losing at home to Arizona, shedding 22.5% and falling to #25. Indiana beat Maryland and is now officially the "it" team in the Big Ten (Illinois and Nebraska having fallen off). They're even projected ahead of USC now, and Michigan can barely hold a lead so they lost ground.

LSU is outside the top 25 but has double-digit playoff odds due to the opportunity their schedule affords them. Meanwhile Oklahoma had a decent week topping Auburn while Kentucky's 20-17 win at Ole Miss made their bowl bid a near-certainty (up 31.4%). Two Big Twelve teams fell out of the top 25: Oklahoma State after taking their 2nd loss to Kansas State, and Central Florida after being upset BIG by Colorado. Arizona's win over Utah revitalized their chances but a prior 31-7 loss to K-State will hold them back for a while until we see whether the burgeoning pecking order holds or not. And add SMU to the title threats in the ACC after their 42-16 win over FSU. They're still behind Miami, Clemson, and Louisville but their only loss is to undefeated BYU.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 28  26. LSU                  SEC    4-1   8-4   7.6- 4.4    10.9   +1.6   89.5   +6.1
 40  27. SMU                  ACC    4-1  10-2   8.2- 3.8     7.5   +2.8   94.5  +10.9
 36  28. Oklahoma             SEC    4-1   6-6   7.2- 4.8     7.5   +1.9   88.8  +11.2
 48  33. Arizona              B12    3-1   8-4   7.7- 4.3     8.7   +4.4   87.5  +15.5
 31  34. Liberty             *CUSA   4-0  10-1   9.2- 1.8     3.8   -3.8   99.0   -0.3
 30  35. Memphis              AAc    4-1  10-2   9.0- 3.0     2.9   -4.0   99.2   +0.3
 18  36. Central Florida      B12    3-1  10-2   7.1- 4.9     7.1  -18.2   78.4  -16.1
 69  41. Kentucky             SEC    3-2   7-5   6.8- 5.2     1.0   +0.7   85.1  +31.4
 24  44. Oklahoma St          B12    3-2   9-3   6.9- 5.1     3.2  -10.1   79.1   -8.8

Liberty had the strangest result, losing half their Playoff odds (down 3.8% to 3.8%) due to their game with Appalachian State being cancelled. Liberty's schedule is perhaps the easiest in the country and playing only 11 games won't help them gain traction even as an undefeated C-USA champ. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 49  39. Army                 AAc    4-0   9-3   9.1- 2.9     3.2   +1.2   98.7   +6.1
 58  45. Navy                 AAc    4-0   8-4   8.5- 3.5     3.6   +1.7   96.5  +10.8

Above, see Army and Navy, both undefeated after 4 games. What happens in the 12-team era if both go undefeated and meet in the American conference championship game? Well, it's a bit weird. Yes, they would play for the AAC title, both holding 11-0 records each with a win over Notre Dame. So the winner would have a good chance of making the Playoff. But then they'd play again on December 14 for the annual Army-Navy game. Just imagine Army winning the AAC title in 4 overtimes and becoming the 5th conference auto-bid for the Playoff. Then they meet Navy in December and lose 56-0. Then they go on a crazy Playoff run and win the national championship—while 12-1 Navy holds a devastating win over them. Not very likely but due to the weird scheduling here, we could realistically see a Playoff team lose BEFORE the Playoff even starts!

In the section below, a whole mess of teams improved their bowl odds, and no one more than Colorado who beat UCF 48-21. The Buffaloes were around 40% in bowl odds but are now above 75%. And look at UConn, suddenly a good team at 3-2 after crushing a good Buffalo team 47-3.  

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 82  48. Colorado             B12    4-1   5-7   6.9- 5.1     2.6   +2.1   77.4  +36.7
 65  54. Louisiana-Lafayette  SUNw   3-1   9-3   8.2- 3.8     1.3   +0.3   93.8  +12.9
 77  55. Connecticut          Ind    3-2   9-3   8.1- 3.9     0.0    0.0   95.9  +19.8
 61  57. TCU                  B12    3-2   6-6   6.5- 5.5     1.1   -0.1   70.7  +12.3
 60  59. Duke                 ACC    5-0   6-6   7.7- 4.3     0.8   -0.1   92.3  +12.3
 70  60. North Texas          AAc    4-1   9-3   7.8- 4.2     0.7   +0.3   92.1  +12.6
 81  70. Georgia Southern     SUNe   3-2   6-6   6.8- 5.2     0.1   -0.1   77.7  +17.6
 83  78. Ohio U.              MAC    3-2   8-4   7.2- 4.8     0.0   -0.1   86.0  +14.0
105  87. Old Dominion         SUNe   1-3   5-7   5.0- 7.0    <0.1    0.0   40.6  +16.2
103  88. Louisiana-Monroe     SUNw   3-1   4-8   6.0- 6.0    <0.1    0.0   57.7  +20.4
 95  89. Florida Int'l        CUSA   2-3   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.0   -0.1   63.9  +13.4

Below, the opposite: Teams that are flailing and seeing their seasons start to fall apart. Auburn's loss to Oklahoma left them searching for future SEC wins, while Kansas has the same problem in the Big Twelve after falling to TCU for a 1-4 start. And speaking of 1-4 starts, Florida State has only a 7.4% chance at a bowl game—half of Wake Forest's odds, incredibly. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 84  93. Auburn               SEC    2-3   4-8   4.5- 7.5     0.0   -0.1   22.4  -14.5
 87  94. Kansas               B12    1-4   3-9   3.7- 8.3    <0.1   -0.1   13.8  -19.6
 92 101. Florida St           ACC    1-4   4-8   3.7- 8.3     0.0   -0.1    7.4  -12.2
 93 103. Wake Forest          ACC    1-3   2-10  3.6- 8.4     0.0   -0.1   14.7  -16.7
 99 106. Georgia St           SUNe   2-2   2-10  4.4- 7.6     0.0   -0.1   24.7  -16.4
109 109. Appalachian St       SUNe   2-2   3-8   3.7- 7.3     0.0   -0.1   11.8  -17.3
100 113. Troy                 SUNw   1-4   2-10  3.7- 8.3     0.0    0.0   14.4  -20.6
111 114. Tulsa                AAc    2-3   2-10  4.2- 7.8     0.0    0.0   20.8  -16.3
113 115. San Diego St         MWC    1-3   3-9   3.8- 8.2     0.0   -0.1   14.2  -14.2
114 118. Alabama-Birmingham   AAc    1-3   3-9   3.5- 8.5     0.0    0.0   10.7  -13.8
116 124. Air Force            MWC    1-3   2-10  3.3- 8.7     0.0    0.0   11.5  -12.1
117 127. New Mexico St        CUSA   1-4   2-10  3.0- 9.0     0.0    0.0    5.5  -16.3
134 134. Kent St              MAC    0-5   0-12  1.2-10.8     0.0    0.0   <0.1   -0.5

And Kent State's 0-5 start gives them a less than 0.1% chance to make a bowl game. Their schedule gets a lot easier but they have to go 6-1 or 7-0.

Week 5 Preview: Alabama - Georgia is the big game, but Washington State vs. Boise may be more impactful

Washington State vs. Boise State is the more important game in terms of who makes the Playoff. Hear me out.

Alabama vs. Georgia is bigger for determining the pecking order within the Playoff, but both the winner and loser will still be favored to make the Playoff and will have every opportunity to recover from any damage. 

You might not be thinking either the Cougars or the Broncos are very much in the running—after all, Washington State has no real conference and Boise State has a loss already. But you'd be wrong: the Broncos are currently projected to make the Playoff as the 5th-ranked conference champ, while the Cougars are #14 in our Top 25 projection which places them only a few spots away.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 12  13. Southern Cal         B10    2-1  10-2   8.3- 3.7    30.1   -7.6   91.7   +0.1
 15  14. Washington St        P12    4-0  11-1  10.0- 2.0    18.9   -1.9   99.9   +0.8
 18  15. Clemson              ACC    2-1  11-1   8.7- 3.3    23.6   +2.2   96.0   +3.3
 17  16. Boise St            *MWC    2-1  11-1   9.3- 2.7    31.5   +2.3   98.6   +1.5
 22  17. Louisville           ACC    3-0   9-3   8.4- 3.6    26.6   +3.6   91.7   +2.7

Both have a tough path ahead, though. Boise State not only has to win their conference, but rank ahead of any other non-power conference champs for that 5th spot. Right now that's looking good but James Madison, Memphis, or Liberty might jump ahead if they slip. And UNLV is looking like big competition in the MWC.

So the Broncos can't afford another loss or their road gets much tougher—probably too tough. This might be an elimination game for them.

Likewise for Washington State, but even more so. The Cougars are ranked so high not necessarily because they're so good, but because their easy schedule gives them an opportunity to go undefeated and slip in the Playoff without a conference championship. A loss to Boise—or any loss—crushes their odds.

So while Alabama vs. Georgia is the biggest game, this one is the only near-elimination game among teams that have a solid, realistic chance at a Playoff spot. 

Notre Dame (#9) plays #17 Louisville in what is probably an elimination game for the 2-1 Irish, though not for the 3-0 Cardinals. #21 Kansas State (3-1) faces #24 Oklahoma State (3-1) and the loser there is in trouble, but since both are power conference teams even the loser has a chance to play their way back in. At this point in the season elimination games are few and far between with the new 12-team format.

Boise State vs. Washington State comes about as close as one can to a real Playoff eliminator in week 5.

Week 4 Update: K-State out; Iowa State, Utah in line for Big Twelve bid

Finally a few upsets (last week was about all chalk) and our projected Playoff lineup changed a bit. Namely, Iowa State moved in to replace Kansas State who lost big. Big moves from Tennessee and Miami who were already in. Here's my week 4 recap.

We have a new top seed, Alabama! Check back next week after they've played Georgia, but based on the action so far, the home team looks like they should be the favorite. The Tide didn't even play last weekend while former #1 Texas crushed ULM 51-3. The Longhorns still have the best Playoff odds, now almost 83% but Alabama projects ahead on average, very slightly. The rest of the SEC Playoff squad did well, especially Tennessee who beat Oklahoma on the road and gained over 19% to jump to #4—but still only #3 in-conference. Ole Miss took care of Georgia Southern 52-13 which barely budged their odds, but they did pass Georgia who was idle and still lost ground—probably because future opponents Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss are all looking so good? Again, this weekend's game at Tuscaloosa will shake things up one way or another.

                                      Projected Record            Odds (9/22/2024)
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  2   1. Alabama             *SEC    3-0  12-0  10.5- 1.5    82.6   +6.3  >99.9   +0.1
  1   2. Texas                SEC    4-0  12-0  10.8- 1.2    82.9   +6.4  >99.9    0.0
  3   3. Ohio State          *B10    3-0  12-0  10.5- 1.5    77.4   +2.9   99.9   +0.2
  7   4. Tennessee            SEC    4-0  10-2  10.6- 1.4    73.4  +19.1  >99.9   +0.1
  4   5. Oregon               B10    3-0  11-1  10.3- 1.7    70.3   +1.5   99.6   -0.1
 11   6. Miami FL            *ACC    4-0  12-0  10.6- 1.4    64.8  +20.8   99.9   +1.2
  6   7. Mississippi          SEC    4-0  12-0  10.3- 1.7    63.7   +3.0   99.8   +0.1
  5   8. Georgia              SEC    3-0   9-3   9.4- 2.6    57.2   -3.6   99.8    0.0
  8   9. Notre Dame           Ind    3-1  11-1   9.7- 2.3    52.9    0.0   99.6   -0.1
 10  10. Penn State           B10    3-0  10-2   9.7- 2.3    48.4   +2.6   99.0   +0.6
 14  11. Iowa St             *B12    3-0  11-1   9.5- 2.5    42.9  +12.0   97.3   +4.4

The Big Ten was less interesting. Ohio State posted a solid 49-14 win over Marshall, and Penn State beat punching bag Kent State 56-0 (the Flashes lost to Tennessee 71-0). Both held their spots while idle Oregon fell to #5. 

Miami, on the other hand, used a fantastic 2nd half to crush USF 50-15 (Alabama beat USF 42-16, also on late scoring) and jumped to #6 gaining over 20% in Playoff odds as the Canes distanced themselves from their ACC peers—for now. Independent Notre Dame held steady after a not-so-spectacular 28-3 win over Miami of Ohio. 

And Iowa State moved into a Playoff spot after beating Arkansas State 52-7. Compare that to Michigan's 28-18 win over the same Red Wolves and you see why the Cyclones are ranked 1st in the Big Twelve. Especially after Michigan upset USC and moved back into the projected Top 25 (surprisingly USC was hardly affected, dropping 7% and one spot). Of course, it was Kansas State's huge 31-7 loss to BYU cleared the path for the Cyclones, as well as Utah who is right behind, and UCF who is also in the mix. Utah beat Oklahoma State, who held on at #24. Kansas State lost almost 30% but remained ahead of BYU who jumped from #47 to #23, up 14% in Playoff Odds. Yes, there is a lot of Big Twelve just outside the Playoff zone.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 13  12. Utah                 B12    4-0  11-1   9.3- 2.7    37.2   +6.1   97.3   +4.5
 12  13. Southern Cal         B10    2-1  10-2   8.3- 3.7    30.1   -7.6   91.7   +0.1
 15  14. Washington St        P12    4-0  11-1  10.0- 2.0    18.9   -1.9   99.9   +0.8
 18  15. Clemson              ACC    2-1  11-1   8.7- 3.3    23.6   +2.2   96.0   +3.3
 17  16. Boise St            *MWC    2-1  11-1   9.3- 2.7    31.5   +2.3   98.6   +1.5
 22  17. Louisville           ACC    3-0   9-3   8.4- 3.6    26.6   +3.6   91.7   +2.7
 21  18. Central Florida      B12    3-0  11-1   8.9- 3.1    25.3   +4.8   94.5   +1.9
 23  19. Indiana              B10    4-0  11-1   9.3- 2.7    18.8   +6.2   98.7   +3.7
 16  20. Missouri             SEC    4-0   9-3   8.6- 3.4    16.0   -6.8   97.8   +2.0
  9  21. Kansas St            B12    3-1  10-2   8.5- 3.5    19.1  -27.9   94.0   -3.8
 28  22. Michigan             B10    3-1   8-4   7.5- 4.5    15.0   +4.0   88.4  +10.6
 47  23. Brigham Young        B12    4-0   9-3   8.7- 3.3    18.9  +14.0   95.0  +22.9
 19  24. Oklahoma St          B12    3-1  10-2   7.8- 4.2    13.3  -11.7   87.9   -3.0
 41  25. James Madison       *SUNe   3-0  12-0   9.9- 2.1    13.2   +6.4   99.0   +8.0

The ACC is represented here too with a resurgent Clemson and still undefeated Louisville, but it's Boise State that makes the current field as projected Mountain West champ. That puts them ahead of Washington State, who can't win a conference championship regardless of how many teams the Pac-12 adds for next season; Indiana, no matter how impressive the Hoosiers have been; and Missouri, who is seemingly fading out of the SEC race just as conference games begin (they beat Vandy in overtime last weekend). The Broncos play Washington State this weekend, a huge one for both of their Playoff hopes, as a 2nd loss for Boise puts them in grave danger while a single loss might strike the Cougars from consideration given their easy slate (and no conf. championship game).

The best competition for Boise State's 5th auto-bid spot might now be James Madison, who powered their way into the top 25 by crushing North Carolina 70-50. Other candidates just outside the Top 25 include UNLV, who could win the MWC themselves and have almost a 20% Playoff odds by our reckoning; Texas State, who would have to beat James Madison to win the Sun Belt; Memphis, who got their odds rocked by a loss at Navy; and Liberty, who should go 12-0 but hasn't looked good so far. Then there's Bowling Green, our favorite in the MAC despite a 1-2 start that includes 7-point losses at Penn State and Texas A&M (a win that dragged the Aggies out of the top 25!). Previous MAC favorite Northern Illinois lost in overtime to Buffalo.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Average  Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 26  26. UNLV                 MWC    3-0  10-2   9.3- 2.7    18.5   +3.8   96.7   +1.0
 24  27. Texas A&M            SEC    3-1  10-2   7.9- 4.1    10.1   -4.3   91.5   +2.4
 31  29. Texas St-San Marcos  SUNw   2-1  11-1   9.0- 3.0    11.0   +3.2   96.3   +1.6
 20  30. Memphis             *AAc    3-1  10-2   9.2- 2.8     6.9  -13.1   98.9   -0.7
 30  31. Liberty             *CUSA   4-0  12-0  10.0- 2.0     7.6   -2.0   99.3   +1.3
 42  32. Iowa                 B10    3-1   9-3   7.9- 4.1     5.2   +1.5   90.5  +11.9
 54  35. Rutgers              B10    3-0   9-3   8.1- 3.9     7.8   +3.4   88.2  +17.0
 25  36. Oklahoma             SEC    3-1   6-6   6.8- 5.2     5.6   -9.3   77.6   -4.3
 46  38. Bowling Green       *MAC    1-2  10-2   8.1- 3.9     2.9   -0.5   93.4   +7.7
 57  39. Illinois             B10    4-0   8-4   7.7- 4.3     4.9   +2.7   90.5  +17.8
 59  40. SMU                  ACC    3-1  10-2   7.5- 4.5     4.7   +2.9   83.6  +19.9
 27  42. California           ACC    3-1   9-3   7.7- 4.3     4.5   -8.2   87.4   -3.3
 29  43. Northern Illinois    MAC    2-1   8-4   8.0- 4.0     3.7   -5.6   90.7   -3.0

Oklahoma fell out of the top 25 with the loss to Tennessee, while Big Ten teams Iowa, Rutgers, and Illinois made big jumps in Bowl odds if not Playoff odds. SMU also jumped by beating TCU 66-42, but California sank with a loss to struggling FSU. 

Now we focus on teams that improved (or hurt) their bowl eligibility odds. Virginia Tech lost to Rutgers and fell double digits, as did fellow ACC teams Syracuse and North Carolina, though all three are still well above 50%. Duke went the opposite direction with a 45-17 win over MTSU and now has a 4 in 5 chance of post-season play.  

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 35  50. Virginia Tech        ACC    2-2   8-4   6.4- 5.6     1.9   -4.7   68.7  -10.6
 33  52. Nebraska             B10    3-1   7-5   6.7- 5.3     1.7   -5.7   74.7  -10.7
 67  55. Arkansas             SEC    3-1   5-7   6.4- 5.6     2.2   +0.7   68.5  +19.9
 85  58. Navy                 AAc    3-0   7-5   7.6- 4.4     1.9   +1.5   85.7  +26.2
 70  60. Duke                 ACC    4-0   6-6   7.2- 4.8     0.9    0.0   80.0  +10.9
 39  61. TCU                  B12    2-2   7-5   6.0- 6.0     1.2   -5.3   58.4  -16.9
 78  62. Cincinnati           B12    3-1   5-7   6.2- 5.8     1.5   +0.8   62.8  +18.3
 72  63. Western Kentucky     CUSA   3-1   8-4   7.5- 4.5     0.5    0.0   87.9  +11.2
 48  64. Syracuse             ACC    2-1   5-7   6.2- 5.8     1.4   -3.7   61.7  -12.7
 36  66. North Carolina       ACC    3-1   7-5   6.7- 5.3     0.6   -5.6   69.9  -15.9
 83  67. Buffalo              MAC    3-1   7-5   7.6- 4.4     0.2   +0.1   86.1  +19.3

Nebraska was looking like a breakout team before losing to Illinois in overtime; their Playoff odds plummeted but they still have a 75% chance to make a bowl game. Navy's solid win over a highly-rated Memphis team boosted the Midshipmen's bowl odds by over 25%. TCU and Cincy meet after opposite results, with the Bearcats blanking Houston 34-0. Western Kentucky upset Toledo, while Buffalo beat NIU and has a shot at the MAC title; the Bulls only loss is to Missouri.

Arkansas topped Auburn sending the Tigers reeling (-23.5% bowl odds) and the Razorbacks soaring (+19.9%). The biggest move percentagewise was UConn who beat Florida Atlantic 48-14 and jumped from under 50% odds to over 75%. The Owls dropped from over 60% to around 40%. Beating Coastal Carolina soundly was enough to boost Virginia almost 20%, likewise North Texas clobbered lowly Wyoming and jumped to nearly 80% odds. 

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 87  70. North Texas          AAc    3-1   8-4   7.2- 4.8     0.4   +0.3   79.5  +19.5
 90  73. Virginia             ACC    3-1   4-8   5.7- 6.3     0.6   +0.4   51.1  +19.4
 84  76. Eastern Michigan     MAC    3-1   7-5   7.3- 4.7     0.1    0.0   80.9  +13.0
103  77. Connecticut          Ind    2-2   7-5   6.8- 5.2     0.0    0.0   76.1  +29.0
 58  84. Auburn               SEC    2-2   4-8   5.0- 7.0     0.1   -1.1   36.9  -23.5
 94  85. Stanford             ACC    2-1   3-9   5.1- 6.9     0.4   +0.1   39.9  +11.8
 68  87. Kansas               B12    1-3   4-8   4.7- 7.3     0.2   -1.1   33.4  -16.0
107  89. South Alabama        SUNw   2-2   6-6   6.0- 6.0     0.1    0.0   60.3  +26.6
 77  91. Minnesota            B10    2-2   2-10  4.6- 7.4     0.1   -0.7   30.2  -13.5
 88 102. Florida Atlantic     AAc    1-3   5-7   5.1- 6.9     0.0   -0.1   40.5  -22.3
115 104. Jacksonville St      CUSA   1-3   5-7   5.0- 7.0     0.0    0.0   39.4  +11.2
 75 109. Appalachian St       SUNe   2-2   4-8   4.5- 7.5    <0.1   -0.5   29.1  -33.0

South Alabama had another big weekend, and this one was worth more than their 87-10 win over FCS Northwestern State. The Jaguars upset Appalachian State in a big way, 48-14, storming up 26.6% while App State dropped a whopping 33%. Power conference teams in this range will generally struggle to make a bowl due to their schedule, and this week Stanford was looking better while Kansas (lost to West Virginia) was hurting along with Minnesota (fell 31-14 at home to Iowa). 

The teams below didn't have much in the way of bowl odds to start with and they all got worse. The biggest drop was from Utah State who lost to lowly Temple 45-29 to go 1-3. In terms of percentage of their percentage, Southern Miss was roughly the biggest loser, dropping from 14% to 2.7% after a 44-7 loss to Jacksonville State, who themselves gained 11.2%

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
114 117. New Mexico St        CUSA   1-3   4-8   4.0- 8.0     0.0    0.0   21.8  -12.0
104 120. Utah St              MWC    1-3   3-9   3.6- 8.4     0.0   -0.1   13.7  -23.4
112 122. Wyoming              MWC    0-4   4-8   3.0- 9.0     0.0    0.0    6.8  -16.2
124 124. Ball St              MAC    1-2   2-10  3.5- 8.5     0.0    0.0   13.1  -10.4
122 128. Middle Tennessee St  CUSA   1-3   3-9   3.5- 8.5     0.0    0.0   13.1  -13.2
123 129. Rice                 AAc    1-3   2-10  3.2- 8.8     0.0   -0.1    9.3  -13.5
130 132. Southern Miss        SUNw   1-3   1-11  2.4- 9.6     0.0    0.0    2.7  -11.3
133 133. Massachusetts        Ind    1-3   2-10  2.4- 9.6     0.0    0.0    0.3   -0.8
134 134. Kent St              MAC    0-4   0-12  1.5-10.5     0.0    0.0    0.6   -1.8

UMass almost beaat Central Connecticut, an FCS team, but that loss dropped them to 0.3% bowl odds. They'd have to go 5-3 from here, and even though we expect them to get another win, at 1-3 their odds are still lower than 0-4 Kent State's 0.6% odds, even though the Flashes don't have a chalk win on their slate and have to go 6-2 from here. As I noted before UMass has a killer schedule as an independent (everyone wanted to play them) while Kent State's MAC schedule is a breeze for the most part. 

2024 Week 3 Update: Texas, Alabama jump to head of class in SEC

Better late than never, it's the Playoff Odds and Bowl Odds update for week 3.

No change in the composition of the projected Playoff 12, but the order is shuffled a bit. Texas leapt to the top seed on the strength of a 56-7 win over UTSA, with Alabama close behind as the SEC's #2 team. The Tide beat Wisconsin 42-10 in Madison which added +12% to their Playoff Odds, but they got an assist from Kentucky who almost beat previous #3 Georgia. The Bulldogs held on 13-12 but lost almost 9% in Playoff Odds and fell into a virtual tie with Ole Miss and Tennessee in the SEC pecking order. The Vols performed spectacularly yet again, trouncing Kent State 71-0 after taking a 65-0 halftime lead. That's still five SEC teams favored to make the cut, and comfortably too.

The Big Ten has three teams "in" right now but Ohio State and Penn State were idle. The Buckeyes dropped to #3 since being idle doesn't allow for much of a gain and 3-0 is better than 2-0. It seems to have really hurt Penn State who drops to #10 and loses over 7% in Playoff Odds. Looking through their schedule some of their future opponents looked good (Maryland, Minnesota) while others flopped (UCLA, Washington). Probably it's a hangover from the previous week's dismal Bowling Green game. The Lions have yet to play a good game and they have Kent State next so it's going to be hard to do anything impressive. Oregon, on the other hand, beat up on Oregon State 49-14 which kept them from having a hangover from their first two poor performance week. The Ducks treaded water at #4.

                                     Projected Record        Odds thru 9/17
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  2   1. Texas               *SEC    3-0  12-0  10.7- 1.3    76.5   +4.5  >99.9   +0.1
  5   2. Alabama              SEC    3-0  12-0  10.3- 1.7    76.3  +11.8   99.8   +1.5
  1   3. Ohio State          *B10    2-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    74.5   +2.0   99.7   +0.1
  4   4. Oregon               B10    3-0  12-0  10.4- 1.6    68.8   +0.3   99.7   +0.7
  3   5. Georgia              SEC    3-0  10-2   9.6- 2.4    60.8   -8.9   99.8   +0.4
  6   6. Mississippi          SEC    3-0  11-1  10.3- 1.7    60.7   +6.1   99.7   +1.7
  8   7. Tennessee            SEC    3-0  10-2  10.0- 2.0    54.3  +15.0   99.8   +1.2
  9   8. Notre Dame           Ind    2-1  11-1   9.8- 2.2    52.9  +13.1   99.7   +2.5
 10   9. Kansas St           *B12    3-0  11-1   9.8- 2.2    47.0  +11.9   97.8   +4.9
  7  10. Penn State           B10    2-0  11-1   9.6- 2.4    45.8   -7.1   98.4   +0.5
 12  11. Miami FL            *ACC    3-0  11-1   9.8- 2.2    44.0  +13.8   98.7   +5.2

Notre Dame, on the other hand, made up some ground loss by their loss to Northern Illinois as they crushed Purdue 66-7 on the road. The Irish gained double digits in Playoff Odds, as did Kansas State who trounced Arizona 31-7, keeping the Wildcats in the driver's seat as the Big Twelve favorite. And Miami furthered their ACC title hopes with a solid 62-0 shutout of Ball State. 

Outside the Playoff bubble, USC was another idle Big Ten team but Indiana made a huge move into the projected final top 25. The Hoosiers beat UCLA 42-13 and in their three games have outscored opponents 150-23. Many are touting Nebraska and/or Illinois as the sleeper Big Ten teams but so far it looks like Indiana. 

Several Big Twelve teams are close to the Playoff zone: Utah, who beat Utah State 38-21 without Cam Rising, and Iowa State, idle after their big win at Iowa, are both in the projected top 15.  Oklahoma State beat Tulsa handily as expected, while UCF edged TCU in a big 35-34 comeback win. 

                                     Projected Record        Odds thru 9/17
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 11  12. Southern Cal         B10    2-0  10-2   8.8- 3.2    37.7   +2.8   91.6   +3.7
 14  13. Utah                 B12    3-0  11-1   8.8- 3.2    31.1   +1.6   92.8   +2.7
 15  14. Iowa St              B12    2-0  11-1   8.9- 3.1    30.9   +3.1   92.9   +0.2
 23  15. Washington St        P12    3-0  11-1   9.8- 2.2    20.8   +7.2   99.1   +5.5
 13  16. Missouri             SEC    3-0  10-2   8.7- 3.3    22.8   -5.5   95.8   +4.1
 16  17. Boise St            *MWC    1-1  11-1   9.2- 2.8    29.2   +1.7   97.1   +0.9
 17  18. Clemson              ACC    1-1  11-1   8.6- 3.4    21.4   -0.6   92.7   +2.8
 18  19. Oklahoma St          B12    3-0  10-2   8.5- 3.5    25.0   +1.4   90.9   +2.2
 24  20. Memphis             *AAc    3-0  11-1  10.1- 1.9    20.0   +3.1   99.6   +2.9
 29  21. Central Florida      B12    3-0  10-2   8.7- 3.3    20.5   +6.2   92.6  +10.2
 19  22. Louisville           ACC    2-0  10-2   8.3- 3.7    23.0   -1.2   89.0   +1.3
 42  23. Indiana              B10    3-0  10-2   8.8- 3.2    12.6   +7.2   95.0  +18.0
 25  24. Texas A&M            SEC    2-1  10-2   8.0- 4.0    14.4   -1.6   89.1   +5.7
 20  25. Oklahoma             SEC    3-0   7-5   7.3- 4.7    14.9   -5.3   81.9   +0.7

Boise State remains the favorite to take the 5th auto-bid, but Memphis made a good case by beating Florida State last weekend. The real surprise in the top 25 is probably Washington State, who doesn't have a shot at an auto-bid from the 2-team (soon to be 6-team) Pac-12. The Cougars beat rival Washington in Seattle and are up to #15! Having no conference title game—and a very easy schedule—doesn't help with the Committee, but going 11-1 could do it.

ACC hopefuls Clemson and Louisville were both idle. Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma are in the top 25 but they'll be hard-pressed to make the Playoff with five SEC teams slated to finish in the top seven!

Just outside the Top 25 we have a number of possible conference champs, led by Northern Illinois who was idle but added to their Playoff odds, probably due to Notre Dame's big win over Purdue boosting NIU's profile. Liberty of the C-USA on the other hand hasn't impressed in any of their three wins, something they have to do given their terrible SOS; the Flames drop out of the Top 25 in a pretty big way. Texas State is still the favorite to win the Sun Belt despite the loss to Arizona State. Joining Liberty in dropping out of the Top 25 is Michigan, who also hasn't played a good game this year; the Wolverines beat Arkansas State 28-18.

                                     Projected Record        Odds thru 9/17
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 45  26. UNLV                 MWC    3-0  10-2   9.0- 3.0    14.7   +7.3   95.7  +15.3
 27  27. California           ACC    3-0  10-2   8.6- 3.4    12.7   -2.7   90.7   +4.3
 21  28. Michigan             B10    2-1   8-4   7.0- 5.0    11.0   -5.3   77.8   -2.4
 33  29. Northern Illinois   *MAC    2-0   9-3   8.8- 3.2     9.3   +3.0   93.7   +4.1
 22  30. Liberty             *CUSA   3-0  12-0   9.7- 2.3     9.6   -6.9   98.0   +0.6
 28  31. Texas St-San Marcos *SUNw   2-1  11-1   8.9- 3.1     7.8   -5.7   94.7   +0.3
 34  32. LSU                  SEC    2-1   7-5   7.1- 4.9     8.4   -1.1   78.9  +11.1
 39  33. Nebraska             B10    3-0   8-4   7.7- 4.3     7.4   -0.2   85.4  +10.8

Three teams pushed toward the top 25, with UNLV leading the charge with an upset of Kansas in Kansas City; the Rebels will be Boise State's top threat in the Mountain West. LSU gutted out a win at South Carolina, and Nebraska continued to roll beating perennial FCS power Northern Iowa 34-3. 

 If anyone's going to challenge Northern Illinois in the MAC it will probably be Toledo, who crushed Mississippi State 41-7, which was a lot worse than Arizona State beat the Bulldogs. But ASU pulled off a minor upset of Texas State on the road, and are 3-0 along with another surprise team, BYU who trounced Wyoming 34-14. 

                                     Projected Record        Odds thru 9/17
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 66  43. Toledo               MAC    3-0  10-2   8.7- 3.3     4.7   +2.5   92.4  +16.2
 58  45. Fresno St            MWC    2-1   8-4   7.9- 4.1     5.0   +1.9   87.6  +13.2
 60  47. Brigham Young        B12    3-0   4-8   6.9- 5.1     4.9   +0.9   72.1  +13.2
 67  50. South Florida        AAc    2-1   8-4   7.6- 4.4     2.9   +1.1   86.0  +13.1
 63  52. Maryland             B10    2-1   7-5   6.5- 5.5     3.1   +0.4   67.5  +12.9
 62  53. Pittsburgh           ACC    3-0   6-6   7.0- 5.0     3.3   +0.1   74.0  +13.0
 72  56. Arizona St           B12    3-0   4-8   6.4- 5.6     3.4   +1.3   61.9  +15.3
 81  61. Sam Houston St       CUSA   2-1   9-3   7.4- 4.6     0.9   +0.4   80.7  +16.9
 46  68. Kansas               B12    1-2   8-4   5.5- 6.5     1.3   -4.7   49.4  -19.1
 53  71. Washington           B10    2-1   4-8   5.5- 6.5     1.3   -4.2   46.6  -12.1

Fresno State, South Florida, Maryland, Sam Houston State and Pitt all improved their bowl odds by double digits. But Kansas and Washington, upset victims to UNLV and Washington State, both took a hit that put them on the borderline of a bowl game. The Jayhawks and Huskies both have 5.5 expected wins, right on the brink—but Kansas will go 8-4 if they play as expected game by game, while Washington will only by 4-8.

In terms of bowl game odds no one took a bigger hit than UCLA, down 23.6% to 22.2% at 1-1 after their 42-13 loss to Indiana—at home, even. Obviously, Florida State wasn't in a good position at 0-2 and going 0-3 made it -14% harder.    

                                      Projected Record        Odds thru 9/17
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 78  72. Western Kentucky     CUSA   2-1   8-4   7.0- 5.0     0.5    0.0   76.7  +12.0
103  83. Buffalo              MAC    2-1   6-6   6.5- 5.5     0.1    0.0   66.8  +12.6
 74  89. West Virginia        B12    1-2   3-9   4.2- 7.8     0.4   -2.0   27.7  -15.9
 76  90. Virginia             ACC    2-1   2-10  4.7- 7.3     0.2   -1.3   31.7  -12.5
 70  96. UCLA                 B10    1-1   3-9   3.9- 8.1     0.3   -3.0   22.2  -23.6
 90  98. Vanderbilt           SEC    2-1   3-9   4.1- 7.9    <0.1   -0.2   16.7  -16.0
 91 102. Florida St           ACC    0-3   3-9   3.7- 8.3    <0.1   -0.4   16.4  -14.0
 97 105. Hawai`i              MWC    1-2   4-8   4.6- 7.4    <0.1   -0.2   32.6  -13.9
117 107. South Alabama        SUNw   1-2   5-7   4.6- 7.4    <0.1    0.0   33.7   +1.8
109 108. Florida              SEC    1-2   2-10  3.3- 8.7     0.0   -0.2   10.6   -7.4
104 109. Colorado St          MWC    1-2   4-8   4.7- 7.3     0.0   -0.2   35.3  -11.7

Almost all the teams above took it on the chin last week, including Florida who now sits at 0.0% to make the Playoff and just 10.6% for a bowl bid. Mississippi State next week should offer a reprieve, but after that their easiest game might be the Seminoles! There's Kentucky too, but they nearly beat Georgia!

South Alabama absolutely rolled last week, beating Northwestern State 87-10. But that score run-up only added a scant 1.8% to their bowl odds, mostly because the win was considered a foregone conclusion. 

                                      Projected Record        Odds thru 9/17
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
107 112. Wyoming              MWC    0-3   5-7   3.9- 8.1     0.0   -0.1   23.0  -12.5
102 114. New Mexico St        CUSA   1-2   4-8   4.6- 7.4     0.0   -0.1   33.8  -17.0
113 115. Jacksonville St      CUSA   0-3   5-7   4.1- 7.9     0.0    0.0   28.2  -12.2
 92 117. Purdue               B10    1-1   2-10  3.2- 8.8    <0.1   -1.0   12.1  -18.1
 98 118. Mississippi St       SEC    1-2   2-10  3.3- 8.7     0.0   -0.2    5.7  -18.4
114 119. Tulsa                AAc    1-2   2-10  4.4- 7.6     0.0   -0.1   29.6  -11.7
111 121. Air Force            MWC    1-2   4-8   4.3- 7.7    <0.1    0.0   28.4  -12.5
110 122. Middle Tennessee St  CUSA   1-2   3-9   4.2- 7.8     0.0   -0.2   26.3  -16.1
118 123. Rice                 AAc    1-2   2-10  4.0- 8.0    <0.1    0.0   22.8  -16.0
115 124. Ball St              MAC    1-1   2-10  4.0- 8.0     0.0   -0.1   23.5  -14.4
131 133. Massachusetts        Ind    0-3   2-10  2.7- 9.3     0.0    0.0    1.1   -3.8
133 134. Kent St              MAC    0-3   0-12  1.9-10.1     0.0    0.0    2.4   -3.2

The teams above aren't in great shape, let's face it. Most have 0.0% Playoff Odds, as they already have 2 or 3 losses for the most part, but no team here has much better than 1 in 3 bowl odds, either. Purdue's hopes were crushed by Notre Dame, and Mississippi State now has no hope of navigating their SEC schedule to the Playoff. Their bowl odds rest at around 5%, too. Kent State's odds fell from 5.6% to 2.4% after the Tennessee debacle, 2nd worst only to UMass, who is now 0-3 and must go 6-3 to be bowl eligible. The Minutemen have just a 1.1% chance of getting to 6 wins. They play three SEC teams as well as Northern Illinois and Liberty. But unlike Kent State, UMass will be favored in two games, as they play Central Connecticut State and Wagner.

2024 Week 2 Results: Tennessee replaces Oklahoma in Playoff; Notre Dame hangs on

You know the big games: Texas beating Michigan, Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois. Yes, those were the big ones but the most important games turned out to be Oklahoma's near-loss and Tennessee's dominant win. Let's take a look.

Ohio State beat Western Michigan 56-0 and took over the projected #1 finish in the projected Committee top 25, gaining a full 10% in Playoff Odds. Really? Does that win carry so much weight? Well, let's look at how the Buckeyes' top contenders in the Big Ten did last week. Oregon nearly lost (37-34) at home to Boise State, Penn State struggled mightily (34-27) with Bowling Green, and of course Michigan lost badly (31-12) at home to Texas. That is where most of Ohio State's +10.0% comes from.

Naturally Texas gains a lot (+14.3%) from beating the Wolverines, pulling them ahead of Georgia for the projected #2 spot. Why are the Longhorns ahead of the Bulldogs? No, they don't rank better in projected power rating, but their remaining schedule is far, far easier than Georgia's. Texas has the home field in their matchup later this year, and looking at the rest of the top ten the Longhorns avoid #5 Alabama, #6 Ole Miss, and #8 Tennessee, all of whom play Georgia.

Projected Final Committee Top 25 (post week 2)

                                     Projected Record         Odds (as of 9/08/2024)
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  4   1. Ohio State          *B10    2-0  11-1  10.3- 1.7    72.5  +10.0   99.6   +0.5
  6   2. Texas               *SEC    2-0  11-1  10.4- 1.6    72.0  +14.3   99.8   +1.8
  3   3. Georgia              SEC    2-0  11-1   9.9- 2.1    69.7   +3.5   99.4   +0.5
  1   4. Oregon               B10    2-0  12-0  10.1- 1.9    68.5   -4.3   99.0    0.0
  5   5. Alabama              SEC    2-0  12-0   9.8- 2.2    64.5   +3.8   98.3   +0.8
  8   6. Mississippi          SEC    2-0  11-1   9.8- 2.2    54.6   +2.0   98.0   +0.8
  7   7. Penn State           B10    2-0  11-1   9.7- 2.3    52.9   -4.4   97.9   -0.2
 18   8. Tennessee            SEC    2-0   9-3   9.3- 2.7    39.3  +19.5   98.6  +11.1
  2   9. Notre Dame           Ind    1-1  11-1   9.2- 2.8    39.8  -29.7   97.2   -2.2
 11  10. Kansas St           *B12    2-0  11-1   9.0- 3.0    35.1   +5.7   92.9   +4.5

Speaking of Tennessee, their 51-10 thrashing of AP Top 25 NC State propelled them into the top 10, both in the AP and in our final Committee standings projection where they gain nearly 20% in Playoff odds. They come in just ahead of Notre Dame, who lost at home to Northern Illinois but has a friendly schedule this year and remains one of the favorites to make the cut. They do lose nearly 30% of that, falling from around 70% to just 40% chance.

Kansas State barely beat Tulane (34-27), but Tulane was damn good last year and K-State was on the road, unlike the other teams that nearly lost last week. Put in perspective, the Wildcats beat Tulane on the road by the same score Penn State beat Bowling Green at home.

Southern Cal may be one of the better Big Ten teams if trends continue (they blanked Utah State 48-0) but our algorithm needs a bit more convincing before the Trojans look Playoff-worthy.

Miami did enough in a gimme week against FAMU to solidify their leading ACC role, while Clemson bounced back with a strong showing against Appalachian State (66-20). Louisville is the other ACC contender and they held their position in week 2.

The SEC teams outside the top 10 will have a tough time making headway. Missouri blanked Buffalo 38-0 but dropped a few spots due to other teams surging. Oklahoma beat Houston just 16-12 and that dropped the Sooners like a rock, down 11.6% and from 5th place in the SEC to a distant 7th. Houston lost to UNLV 27-7 in week 1 at home, to put in perspective how poor Oklahoma played Saturday.  Texas A&M bounced back beating McNeese State 52-10 but again, their home loss to the Irish looks pretty bad now so they still fell to #25.

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 14  11. Southern Cal         B10    2-0   9-3   8.5- 3.5    34.9   +9.5   87.9   +8.0
 12  12. Miami FL            *ACC    2-0  11-1   9.0- 3.0    30.2   +6.4   93.5   +3.1
 10  13. Missouri             SEC    2-0  10-2   8.6- 3.4    28.3   +3.4   91.7   +1.1
 13  14. Utah                 B12    2-0  11-1   8.7- 3.3    29.5   +3.4   90.1   +3.8
 16  15. Iowa St              B12    2-0  11-1   8.9- 3.1    27.8   +3.7   92.7   +5.6
 19  16. Boise St            *MWC    1-1  11-1   9.1- 2.9    27.5   +7.4   96.2   +3.1
 26  17. Clemson              ACC    1-1  11-1   8.4- 3.6    22.0   +8.3   89.9  +10.8
 17  18. Oklahoma St          B12    2-0  10-2   8.5- 3.5    23.6   -1.3   88.7   +3.0
 20  19. Louisville           ACC    2-0  10-2   8.3- 3.7    24.2   +2.5   87.7   +3.3
  9  20. Oklahoma             SEC    2-0   8-4   7.5- 4.5    20.2  -11.6   81.2   -7.1
 15  21. Michigan             B10    1-1   9-3   7.3- 4.7    16.3   -6.6   80.2   -2.3
 21  22. Liberty             *CUSA   2-0  12-0   9.8- 2.2    16.5   -1.1   97.4   +1.2
 41  23. Washington St        P12    2-0   9-3   8.8- 3.2    13.6   +6.9   93.6  +15.1
 24  24. Memphis             *AAc    2-0  10-2   9.5- 2.5    16.9   -0.6   96.7   +4.7
 22  25. Texas A&M            SEC    1-1  10-2   7.7- 4.3    16.0   -0.7   83.4    0.0
 23  26. Arizona              B12    2-0   8-4   8.0- 4.0    15.8   -1.3   85.0    0.0
 25  30. TCU                  B12    2-0  10-2   7.8- 4.2    14.2   -1.4   81.6   +1.6

Almost all of the relevant Big Twelve is in the range above. Aside from K-State who leads the conference by a hair, we have Utah (who beat Baylor but lost QB Cam Rising for the time being), Iowa State (who came back to beat Iowa by a point), and Oklahoma State (who went back and forth before beating Arkansas in overtime). Obviously no one stands out here. To make matters worse, two Big Twelve teams exited the top 25 projection: Arizona (beat Northern Arizona 22-10) and TCU (beating LIU 45-0 wasn't good enough I guess, or it was the hangover of beating Stanford by just 7 points the week before)

Boise State was a big winner despite losing. The Broncos Playoff Odds jumped 7.4% due to their near-win at Oregon. And if they'd won? They'd probably be in the top 10. They're a clear favorite to win the Mountain West and with it a Playoff berth. Though they only beat New Mexico State 30-24, Liberty is still a threat to go 12-0 in C-USA, and Memphis is looking solid in the American.

The surprise newcomer to the top 25? The Pac-12's Washington State. The Cougars beat Texas Tech 37-16 and have a pretty easy schedule. They'll have no conference title game so they probably have to win out or at least go 11-1 to have a good Playoff shot, but we give them almost 14% odds.

The group below is mostly concerned with getting to a bowl game, though California's win over Auburn put them in double digits for the Playoff, and Texas State's 49-10 mauling of UTSA gave the Sun Belt a fighting chance to have a rep. The big move was of course made by Northern Illinois after dispatching Notre Dame. The win puts them at 2-0 and around 90% chance to make a bowl game and made them the MAC favorite, passing even Bowling Green who jumped over 10% despite (or due to) losing a close one at Penn State.

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 42  27. California           ACC    2-0  10-2   8.3- 3.7    15.4   +6.3   86.4  +15.2
 46  28. Texas St-San Marcos *SUNw   2-0  12-0   9.3- 2.7    13.5   +7.9   94.4  +13.3
 68  33. Northern Illinois   *MAC    2-0   9-3   8.4- 3.6     6.3   +5.1   89.6  +20.1
 52  39. Nebraska             B10    2-0   8-4   7.1- 4.9     7.6   +3.0   74.6  +10.9
 66  41. South Carolina       SEC    2-0   5-7   6.7- 5.3     5.5   +3.8   70.2  +25.3
 64  48. Bowling Green        MAC    1-1  10-2   7.5- 4.5     2.9   +1.2   81.2  +10.9
 35  49. SMU                  ACC    2-1   9-3   6.7- 5.3     3.8   -6.5   68.2  -12.4
 32  50. Auburn               SEC    1-1   5-7   6.2- 5.8     3.0   -6.2   62.9  -12.3
 34  51. North Carolina St    ACC    1-1   7-5   6.5- 5.5     3.7   -7.4   66.0  -12.4
 30  54. Texas Tech           B12    1-1   7-5   6.4- 5.6     3.5   -7.8   65.3  -12.9
 62  55. East Carolina        AAc    2-0  11-1   7.9- 4.1     2.9   -0.4   84.0  +12.1
 61  56. Duke                 ACC    2-0   5-7   7.0- 5.0     3.1   -0.3   72.2  +10.9
 81  60. Brigham Young        B12    2-0   4-8   6.2- 5.8     4.0   +1.9   58.9  +15.3

Is Nebraska back? The Colorado win would suggest so, or at least they're probably bowl-bound. And South Carolina's 31-6 win at Kentucky suggest the Gamecocks won't be an SEC pushover this year, while Auburn's loss to California puts their bowl hopes in a bit of doubt. Three ACC teams had noteworthy results: SMU tumbled after losing to BYU (who rose 15%), NC State took a big hit from Tennessee at home, and Duke got a solid win at Northwestern, who dropped (see below) under 1 in 3 bowl odds.

Below, Pitt's comeback (28-27, from down 27-6) vs. Cincinnati put them above the 50% mark and dropped the Bearcats beneath it. Maryland (-14.9%) and Michigan State (+15.7%) went opposite directions after the Spartans won by a field goal, but the Terps are still more likely to reach a bowl (just barely).

Kentucky's bowl odds were savaged (down 24%, from about 75% to just over 50%) by their big loss to South Carolina. Other big losers include Appalachian State (lost by 46 to Clemson) and Texas-San Antonio (lost by 39 to Texas State). 

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 77  62. Pittsburgh           ACC    2-0   5-7   6.3- 5.7     3.2   +1.5   61.0  +14.0
 43  63. Maryland             B10    1-1   6-6   5.8- 6.2     2.7   -3.8   54.6  -14.9
 83  64. San Jose St          MWC    2-0   7-5   7.0- 5.0     2.8   +1.3   72.2  +16.4
 37  68. Kentucky             SEC    1-1   6-6   5.6- 6.4     1.2   -6.7   50.5  -24.2
 87  69. Army                 AAc    2-0   8-4   7.4- 4.6     1.0   +0.3   76.9  +19.5
 96  71. Michigan St          B10    2-0   4-8   5.7- 6.3     1.0   +0.6   49.7  +15.7
 98  72. Arizona St           B12    2-0   3-9   5.5- 6.5     2.1   +1.2   46.6  +14.0
 55  77. Appalachian St       SUNe   1-1   7-5   6.0- 6.0     1.3   -4.6   57.5  -13.0
 49  80. Texas-San Antonio    AAc    1-1   8-4   6.2- 5.8     0.2   -3.5   62.3  -16.8
 94  82. Ohio U.              MAC    1-1   8-4   6.6- 5.4     0.2   +0.1   68.1  +10.0
101  84. Georgia Southern     SUNe   1-1   5-7   5.9- 6.1     0.4   +0.1   56.4  +12.4
 70  85. Wake Forest          ACC    1-1   4-8   5.1- 6.9     0.9   -1.5   41.0  -11.8
 80  94. Northwestern         B10    1-1   2-10  4.7- 7.3     0.3   -0.8   32.7  -11.0
 74  95. Cincinnati           B12    1-1   4-8   4.8- 7.2     0.4   -1.4   37.0  -14.1

Army started 2-0 by beating Florida Atlantic and the Knights now have over a 75% chance for a bowl, while the Owls (below) remain just above 50%. Arizona State (above) jumped to near-par by edging Mississippi State, who (below) dropped below 25% odds in the tough SEC. San Jose State's gain (+16.4%) is Air Force's loss (-21.4%), and so on.

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 75  96. Florida Atlantic     AAc    0-2   7-5   5.7- 6.3    <0.1   -0.4   54.4  -14.4
 88  98. Mississippi St       SEC    1-1   4-8   4.4- 7.6     0.2   -0.4   24.1  -12.7
124 100. Florida Int'l        CUSA   1-1   5-7   5.8- 6.2     0.1    0.0   54.3  +22.9
 92 106. Utah St              MWC    1-1   5-7   5.0- 7.0     0.1   -0.8   40.9  -10.4
 76 111. Air Force            MWC    1-1   4-8   5.0- 7.0     0.1   -1.9   40.9  -21.4
102 117. South Alabama        SUNw   0-2   5-7   4.5- 7.5    <0.1   -0.1   31.9  -17.4
131 122. Louisiana-Monroe     SUNw   2-0   3-9   4.4- 7.6    <0.1   +0.1   26.8  +13.5
 97 123. Central Michigan     MAC    1-1   2-10  4.2- 7.8     0.0   -0.4   27.8  -26.4
 99 124. Alabama-Birmingham   AAc    1-1   5-7   4.4- 7.6     0.0   -0.4   28.9  -26.2
122 127. UTEP                 CUSA   0-2   3-9   3.5- 8.5     0.0    0.0   19.0  -15.3

Florida International blasted Central Michigan 52-16 and now looks like an on-money bowl team, while the Chippewas dropped from around 50% to closer to 25%. UAB fell nearly as much after losing 32-6 to ULM, who gained 13.5% but is still around a 1 in 4 chance. And if you think it couldn't get much worse for UTEP, think again. The Miners lost to FCS team Southern Utah at home, taking away a crucial win they really needed to have a decent shot at a bowl game. Now they need to go 6-4 and though we see 3 or 4 wins coming, it would have helped to only need 5 more at this point.

2024 Week 1 Results: Miami moves into Playoff picture; Notre Dame, Alabama jump

The first week (or week and a half) is over, and already some teams are in Playoff trouble. With the new 12-team field there's a lot more leeway—a single loss doesn't crash a team's odds like it did in the 4-team days—but it still puts your team in the back seats if they lose on opening week.

Almost all of the field stayed the same from last week, as there weren't too many real surprises or competitive games which is normal for the first few weekends. Oregon remained at the top of our list but just barely as the Ducks struggled to top FCS Idaho 24-14. It's unusual for a team to win and have their Playoff odds drop 1.6%—even their bowl odds dropped from 99.1% to 99.0%. The Ducks were ahead of the field at the pre-season but no more; they play Boise State next week so they've used their "poor game" pass already.

Notre Dame and Georgia both impressed, with the Irish jumping 14.6% and into the #2 position with their win at Texas A&M. That was one of their two big hurdles and without a conference championship game their path got a lot clearer; they're up a stunning 14.6% from last week. The Bulldogs crushed Clemson 34-3 but only rose 7.1% as their path in the SEC is still rocky by comparison—especially with the surge by Alabama who destroyed Western Kentucky 63-0 and jumped 14% and into the top 5. New member Texas looked good too, beating Colorado State 52-0. Georgia plays both of them, as well as #8 Mississippi, so it's no wonder their odds are conservative despite their performance this week.

Ohio State beat Akron 52-6 but that wasn't good enough to raise their Playoff odds, in fact they dipped 0.1%. Some of that was due to Penn State's 10.6% surge after a solid 34-12 win at West Virginia. Mississippi also saw their odds dip 0.1% after a 76-0 win over Furman. That's probably more due to Georgia's convincing win (and potential SEC title opponent Alabama) then their own play. Overall, the top 8 teams are well ahead of the rest, all over 50% for making the Playoff.

                                     Projected Record            Odds (9/03/2024)
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
  1   1. Oregon              *B10    1-0  12-0  10.4- 1.6    72.8   -1.6   99.0   -0.1
  4   2. Notre Dame           Ind    1-0  12-0  10.6- 1.4    69.5  +14.6   99.4   +2.2
  3   3. Georgia             *SEC    1-0  12-0   9.9- 2.1    66.2   +7.1   98.9   +2.3
  2   4. Ohio State           B10    1-0  11-1  10.0- 2.0    62.5   -0.1   99.1   +0.2
  8   5. Alabama              SEC    1-0  11-1   9.7- 2.3    60.7  +14.0   97.5   +5.3
  5   6. Texas                SEC    1-0  11-1   9.7- 2.3    57.7   +4.6   98.0   +2.4
  7   7. Penn State           B10    1-0  11-1   9.9- 2.1    57.3  +10.6   98.1   +3.7
  6   8. Mississippi          SEC    1-0  11-1   9.7- 2.3    52.6   -0.1   97.2   +1.3
  9   9. Oklahoma             SEC    1-0   9-3   8.3- 3.7    31.8   -2.3   88.3   +1.3
 11  10. Missouri             SEC    1-0   9-3   8.5- 3.5    24.9   +0.6   90.6   +0.6
 12  11. Kansas St           *B12    1-0  11-1   8.7- 3.3    29.4   +1.9   88.4   +1.7
 27  12. Miami FL            *ACC    1-0  11-1   8.7- 3.3    23.8   +8.8   90.4  +13.6

Oklahoma is just inside the Playoff group. The Sooners' odds fell 2.3% even though they beat Temple 51-3, almost exactly the result expected. Again, blame being in the SEC where four teams ahead of them exceeded expectations over the weekend, and Missouri is right behind.

Miami was the big winner this week, moving into the projected field with an impressive 41-17 win at Florida, that, coupled with Clemson's debacle in Atlanta puts the Hurricanes in the ACC driver's seat. Kansas State remained the Big Twelve favorite, with Utah close behind. Iowa State didn't look great against North Dakota, winning just 21-3, while Oklahoma State's 44-20 win over FCS champ South Dakota State was much better. Meanwhile new Big Twelve member Arizona scored 61 against New Mexico but allowed 39, dinging their Playoff odds 5.2%, pretty harsh for a win.

                                     Projected Record            Odds (9/03/2024)
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 15  13. Utah                 B12    1-0  11-1   8.5- 3.5    26.1   +2.8   86.3   +2.9
 29  14. Southern Cal         B10    1-0   9-3   7.8- 4.2    25.4   +8.9   79.9  +11.7
 16  15. Michigan             B10    1-0   9-3   7.8- 4.2    22.9   +1.6   82.5   +4.8
 13  16. Iowa St              B12    1-0  11-1   8.5- 3.5    24.1   -2.0   87.1   +2.1
 21  17. Oklahoma St          B12    1-0  10-2   8.4- 3.6    24.9   +2.9   85.7   +6.4
 25  18. Tennessee            SEC    1-0   9-3   8.1- 3.9    19.8   +4.1   87.5   +5.7
 19  19. Boise St            *MWC    1-0  11-1   8.8- 3.2    20.1   +1.3   93.1   +2.9
 23  20. Louisville           ACC    1-0   9-3   8.1- 3.9    21.7   +2.2   84.4   +2.3
 20  21. Liberty             *CUSA   1-0  12-0   9.7- 2.3    17.6   +0.1   96.2   +2.0
 10  22. Texas A&M            SEC    0-1  10-2   7.8- 4.2    16.7  -13.4   83.4   -2.3
 14  23. Arizona              B12    1-0   9-3   8.1- 3.9    17.1   -5.2   85.0   -3.0
 22  24. Memphis             *AAc    1-0  10-2   9.0- 3.0    17.5   -1.7   92.0   +1.0

The big winner above was Southern Cal, of course; getting LSU out of the way and in the W column is a big help. Boise State wasn't in the Playoff in our pre-season projection, but sneaked in last week and remained this week. The Broncos play Oregon next weekend and a win would make them a huge Playoff favorite. Liberty and Memphis are in the hunt for the fifth auto-bid conference champ if Boise falters. 

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 26  25. TCU                  B12    1-0  10-2   7.8- 4.2    15.6   -1.8   80.0   +4.0
 17  26. Clemson              ACC    0-1  10-2   7.6- 4.4    13.7   -6.9   79.1   -3.1
 38  27. North Carolina       ACC    1-0  11-1   8.2- 3.8    11.9   +3.1   85.0  +10.1
 33  28. Kansas               B12    1-0  10-2   7.6- 4.4    14.1   +2.2   77.4   +1.4
 18  29. LSU                  SEC    0-1   7-5   6.8- 5.2    10.8  -12.2   70.9   -5.5
  ...
 42  38. James Madison       *SUNe   1-0  10-2   8.5- 3.5     8.7   +2.2   88.4   +7.4
 24  39. Virginia Tech        ACC    0-1  10-2   7.2- 4.8     9.2  -10.8   74.6   -9.1
 64  40. Coastal Carolina     SUNe   1-0  11-1   8.1- 3.9     8.2   +4.3   83.2  +15.4
 80  48. UNLV                 MWC    1-0   8-4   7.3- 4.7     6.3   +3.8   73.9  +15.3
 84  56. Boston College       ACC    1-0   6-6   6.6- 5.4     3.8   +2.0   65.3  +20.6
 46  69. Western Kentucky     CUSA   0-1   9-3   6.7- 5.3     0.8   -3.7   69.0   -9.8
 40  79. Florida St           ACC    0-2   6-6   4.7- 7.3     1.0   -6.8   36.2  -22.6

Note how Clemson fell from grace with a bigger-than-expected loss margin, while North Carolina's 19-17 win at Minnesota gave them a pretty big boost. Turns out that was one of the toughest games on the Tar Heel schedule this year as they don't play Miami or Clemson, and Florida State (now #79 at 0-2) is a very reduced threat. Virginia Tech's Playoff odds also dropped double digits with their upset loss to Vanderbilt, while Boston College soared with their solid win over FSU. The Eagles' Playoff Odds aren't much, but their bowl odds jumped from 45% to 65% from one win.

Coastal Carolina and UNLV both gained 15% in bowl odds from decent wins, with the Chanticleers beating Jacksonville State 55-27 and the Rebels drubbing Houston 27-7.

                                     Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk   Cume     Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
110  82. North Texas          AAc    1-0   5-7   6.1- 5.9     0.8   +0.3   58.0  +17.7
117  85. Sam Houston St       CUSA   1-0   7-5   6.4- 5.6     0.7   +0.6   61.8  +22.7
120  95. Vanderbilt           SEC    1-0   4-8   4.7- 7.3     0.3   +0.1   30.0  +11.7
123  98. Arizona St           B12    1-0   1-11  4.5- 7.5     0.9   +0.7   32.6  +15.0
 68 102. South Alabama        SUNw   0-1   6-6   5.5- 6.5     0.2   -2.0   49.3  -18.2
 66 104. Wyoming              MWC    0-1   6-6   5.0- 7.0     0.5   -3.7   43.0  -22.7
 81 106. Troy                 SUNw   0-1   3-9   5.3- 6.7     0.2   -1.5   46.5  -14.4
114 107. Eastern Michigan     MAC    1-0   5-7   5.9- 6.1     0.1    0.0   55.0   +9.5
 78 110. Florida              SEC    0-1   2-10  3.8- 8.2     0.5   -3.4   22.0  -17.8
 85 113. Jacksonville St      CUSA   0-1   8-4   5.3- 6.7    <0.1   -0.7   47.6  -14.5
 67 116. Rice                 AAc    0-1   4-8   5.1- 6.9     0.2   -3.0   42.4  -23.3
126 119. Nevada               MWC    1-1   3-10  5.2- 7.8     0.2   +0.1   30.9  +10.2
118 126. Houston              B12    0-1   1-11  2.4- 9.6    <0.1   -0.3    8.2  -13.1
127 134. Massachusetts        Ind    0-1   2-10  3.2- 8.8     0.0    0.0    8.5  -12.1

More winners and losers from week 1, now at the bottom of the list where Playoff Odds are an afterthough so we focus on Bowl qualification. North Texas beat South Alabama 52-38, putting the Mean Green over 50% for a bowl game and the Jaguars just below the 50% mark at 49.3%. 

Sam Houston won 34-14 at Rice, and they gained more than 20% for it, up to 61.8% while Rice fell 23.3%—and all the way from #67 to #116. The Owls were about a 2-touchdown favorite before the game in our system.

While Arizona struggled last week, Arizona State rolled against Wyoming, 48-7, brightening their forecast for the season. We had them last in the Big Twelve, and not favored to win a single game—talk about exceeding expectations! Meanwhile Wyoming crashed 22.7% and next faces the Idaho team that gave Oregon fits.

Speaking of last place in the Big Twelve, Houston's bad loss to UNLV puts them in that spot. The Cougars now have the lowest bowl odds of any team in the nation. They don't play ASU, who is also forecast to go 1-11 game by game, the difference being the Sun Devils have a lot of close games now and should end up with 4 or 5 wins, while Houston looks to have 2 or 3.

Nevada beat Troy, 28-26, but it wasn't enough for the Wolf Pack to pass the Trojans in bowl odds. UMass now looks like the least Playoff-worthy team in the country, and is almost the least bowl-likely, too at 8.5% following their loss to Eastern Michigan, who now looks like a bowl contender.

Finally, Florida is easily the best team in this region, starting #39 in our pre-season rankings. The loss to Miami hurt them but it's mainly their SEC schedule going forward that puts them at just 22% bowl odds. They play Samford next weekend but after that it's hard to find a win let alone five more. They don't play Vanderbilt. Florida State looks less daunting now, but that one's on the road. Mississippi State is a possibility, or UCF or Kentucky at home. Good luck, Gators, you're gonna need it.