SportsRatings: College Football

Playoff, Portal, and NIL have ruined the bowl season

The bowl season sucks now, let's not mince words. This should have been a great bowl season with incredible matchups, but as Ohio State's loss to Missouri showed, there are no longer great matchups outside of the Playoff games.

Ohio State wasn't the same team that went 11-1. No starting QB, no star receiver = no offense. Missouri wasn't the same team either, but to a lesser extent, and that's why they won.

The other interesting matchups, like Florida State vs. Georgia, Oregon vs. Liberty, Penn State vs. Ole Miss, all are ravaged by opt outs and transfers, and will be played by shadows of the teams that got them there. Even the stupid matchups, like LSU vs. Wisconsin, might be interesting but we won't see the Heisman winner who opted out. That might make the game more competitive, but we all lose anyway.

Everyone knows how we got here, and it started with the Playoff. Once there were four teams in competition for the National Championship, all the other bowls lost luster. For decades every team treated their bowl as the culmination of their season and something to be proud of; suddenly, even at just 4 teams, the Playoff made other bowls a 2nd class affair.

But it really wasn't until the last several years that opt outs accelerated, and when the transfer portal hit it was like a 1-2 shot to the dome. Suddenly it seemed every bowl team's best players were opting out or transferring, often both, and the lines for games were jumping by a touchdown at a time as key players left. NIL money accelerated the process, sometimes causing transfers on the fly.

Prediction bowl games used to be an interesting challenge based on a team's data for the full season. But last year at least 50% of it was looking at why was actually playing in the game. It would be even moreso this year, which is why i "opted out" of reviewing the bowl games this season.

The Playoff, which was the root cause of problem, will be part of the solution when it expands to 12 teams. Those 12 teams will likely see a lot less attrition during the bowl season, and it would have helped this bowl season a lot. But I think that it's also the death of every other bowl game, and it might mean the Playoff has to expand even further as the bowl season ceases to exist. 

That's right, the bowls are going to be a thing of the past, and maybe that's for the best, because it's pretty much a joke right now. There were already far too many bowl games, let's face it. 82 teams should not be in bowl games. Cap the Playoff at 32 teams and dismiss the rest of the bowl games, that looks like the future to me.

Who will be #1? Florida State still has a chance, and other scenarios

Determining who is national champ in college football used to be a crapshoot, with several teams staking a claim each year. By waves, it became less problematic, first with the logical step of actually choosing AFTER the bowl games instead of before (like they did until the mid-1960s, believe it or not).

Then came the "Bowl alliance" which settled the matter for almost every team outside the Big Ten and Pac-10, who still had the Rose Bowl. The BCS system brought the Big Ten and Pac-10/12 into the fold with rankings to make sure the #1 and #2 team collided at the end, including the Big Ten and Pac-10/12. There was still the pesky problem of a third undefeated team, or three teams fitting into two slots, so the Playoff was created, and everything was fixed!

Not so fast. The very first year was plagued with controversy when TCU dropped from #3 to #6 despite a 55-3 win. And now there's Florida State, who finished 13-0 but was left out due to their quarterback's injury that made the Committee think Alabama was the better choice.

Normally the Playoff winner is the obvious choice for national champ. But Florida State can still stake a real claim to #1, depending on how the Playoff pans out. There are a variety of teams that can logically claim a higher spot than most of the Playoff teams, too. Here are some scenarios:

Who can claim to be national champ?

• Michigan, at 15-0, would be hard to deny
• Washington, also 15-0, would be a pretty easy choice
• Alabama at 14-1, especially if they beat Texas to win it all
• Texas at 14-1, especially if they beat both Washington and Michigan
• Florida State at 14-0. If they beat Georgia soundly and Alabama wins the Playoff, the Seminoles would have a solid claim to being undefeated national champs. If Texas wins the Playoff they'd still have a decent claim. It would be a harder sell if Michigan or Washington wins the Playoff, but if they demolish Georgia they could make the case.
• Liberty, at 14-0. This is a tough sell, but if they destroy Oregon and Washington wins the Playoff, does a 35 point win over the Ducks beat two 3-point wins? Hard sell with the rest of their schedule, and the fact that the bowl games don't mean as much after so many players opt out.

Who could logically be ranked #2?

• Michigan, Washington, Alabama, Texas, Florida State - all could finish #2. Michigan and Washington could lose in the first round and still be #2, while Texas and Alabama would have to make the final game, and it would help if they face each other. FSU if they go 14-0 is probably the favorite to get the #2 spot depending on how the Playoff goes.
• Ohio State at 13-1: If Michigan goes 15-0, then Ohio State's only loss is a narrow road game to the Wolverines
• Georgia at 13-1: if Alabama wins it all handily then Georgia can claim to be #2
• Oregon at 12-2: If Washington wins the Playoff, a 2-loss Oregon—with both narrow losses to Washington—should be considered for the #2 spot
• Liberty at 14-0: If #1 is a stretch, what about #2? Their best path is Washington going 15-0, a blowout win over Oregon, and Georgia barely edging FSU, with Ohio State losing too. Still hard to defend.

What about #3? Two long-shots to be ranked that high can make the claim, and they play each other, too:

• All the aforementioned teams could end up #3, with the following added more in terms of logic:
• Penn State: if they beat Mississippi, Ohio State beats Missouri, and Michigan wins the Playoff at 15-0, then the Lions only losses are to (potential) #2 Ohio State and #1 Michigan
• Mississippi: same as above, if the Rebels beat Penn State, Alabama wins the Playoff handily, and Georgia crushes FSU, could it be #1 Alabama, #2 Georgia, #3 Mississippi?

And LSU, who lost only to Alabama, FSU, and Ole Miss, can claim by logic to be the #5 teams, continuing the best-case scenario for the SEC

• Alabama wins the Playoff, destroying Michigan and Texas (after Texas destroys Washington); Georgia edges FSU; Mississippi crushes Penn State; Missouri crushes Ohio State. Then the teams could be ordered: #1 Alabama, #2 Georgia, #3 Florida State, #4 Mississippi, #5 LSU
• Missouri (lost only to LSU and Georgia) could lay claim to #6, though Liberty might have to beat Oregon, with 1-loss Michigan and Washington it's straining credulity here. 

Anyway, it will be an interesting year to rank the teams when it's all over. The first key game in all of this happens tonight when Ohio State faces Missouri.

Playoff algorithm? Who knows, it's all up to the humans now

Florida State and Michigan won, but after the Wolverines and Huskies it's a crapshoot due to unpredictable human beings.

2023 Playoff Odds 12pm; after all games played but before AP poll

 Ranking                                   | Playoff    | CFP   
 Prv Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec |%Odds  %Chg | LW  
  2   1. Michigan               B10e   13-0  99.9  +2.5    2   
  1   2. Washington             P12    13-0  98.7  +0.3    3   
  5   3. Florida St             ACC    13-0  78.0  +5.7    4   
  4   4. Texas                  B12    12-1  48.7 -15.8    7   
  6   5. Alabama                SECw   12-1  39.3 -14.4    8   
  3   6. Georgia                SECe   12-1  28.0 +15.3    1   
  7   7. Ohio State             B10e   11-1   7.4  +6.4    6   
  8   8. Oregon                 P12    11-2   0.0   0.0    5   

Well here we are, our formula reduced to logic and precedent rather than a combination of odds and outcomes. Logic dictates that Texas is ahead of Alabama who is ahead of Georgia. Will that logic hold with the humans in the Committee? If some of the talking heads are correct, then it might not. Precedent states that a 13-0 power conference champ is guaranteed a spot. Will that precedent hold? Again, the talking heads are saying, maybe not.

Will Florida State make it? Will Texas make it? Or will the idea that the SEC is the best conference—not true this year, btw—mean that both Alabama and Georgia make it? Our projection can't deal with this kind of sentiment, and simply projects the three 13-0 teams to be at the top, joined by the team that beat the team that beat the team. Texas isn't that close to jumping FSU, and Alabama isn't that close to jumping Texas. In fact it's surprising how close Georgia is to being ahead of Alabama. And Ohio State still gets consideration for being 11-1, maybe being the best team in the country, and only losing on the road to the #1 team. That's as good as Georgia's résumé. 

But it's not about résumé at this point. This year is looking a lot like 2014, when there were six teams to fill four slots. That year an undefeated Florida State made it in at 13-0, instead TCU was sacrificed to open a spot for Ohio State. Nobody had a 59-0 win this year, but people are acting like Alabama's 24-21 win over Georgia is the same thing. 

Florida State's standing doesn't capture the fact that humans will look at: a team without their star quarterback. They very well might decide the Seminoles are not "one of the four best teams" and also decide the SEC champ can't be left out. Having decided that, they better put Texas in. Including the team that beat Alabama instead of the team that lost to Alabama would at least be a nod toward a semblance of fairness.

I'll revise these projections after the AP poll comes out, as the sportswriters are on the same page as the Committee and what they decide is probably quite close to what the Committee will decide.

Georgia loses, FSU looks in if they win; Texas 4th, Alabama 5th

Alabama beat Georgia and the team helped most in our sim was Florida State, who now looks in if they win.

2023 Playoff Odds 7:30pm 12/02: after Pac-12, Big Twelve, SEC championships; pre-Big Ten, ACC

 Ranking                              Curr | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 Prv Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec |%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  1   1. Washington             P12    13-0  98.4   0.0     3     2  
  2   2. Michigan               B10e   12-0  97.4  +1.0     2     1  
  5   3. Florida St             ACC    12-0  72.3 +28.6     4     3  
  4   4. Texas                  B12    12-1  64.5  +7.8     7     4  
  6   5. Alabama                SECw   12-1  53.7 +29.0     8     5  
  3   6. Georgia                SECe   12-1  12.7 -58.9     1     6  
  7   7. Ohio State             B10e   11-1   1.0  -7.0     6     7  
  8   8. Oregon                 P12    11-2   0.0   0.0     5     8  

Why was FSU the big recipient of Alabama's win? In our sim at least, clearing out undefeated teams let FSU gain a higher ranking if they win, keeping them away from the dreaded #4 spot which Texas has to fight out with Alabama. If FSU loses, they should both get in comfortably ahead of Georgia, otherwise the Committee will have its say.

The SEC can still get either shut out, or get two teams in if FSU and Michigan both lose. That would be a chaotic situation but Alabama and Georgia might finish #3 and #4 then.

Texas wins 49-21, Playoff odds dip?

Texas walloped Oklahoma State 49-21, a 35-point win that wasn't enough to clear the bar for our algorithm to pass Florida State if the Seminoles win by more than 4 points.

That may seem arbitrary and it kind of is, and other factors change how our model reacts too. For one, the expected Committee ranking becomes more and more important, and that helps Florida State a bit and hurts Texas.

2023 Playoff Odds 3:30pm 12/02: after Pac-12, Big Twelve championships

 Ranking                              Curr | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 Prv Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec |%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  1   1. Washington             P12    13-0  98.4   0.0     3     3  
  2   2. Michigan               B10e   12-0  96.4  +0.7     2     2  
  3   3. Georgia                SECe   12-0  71.6  +0.6     1     1  
  4   4. Texas                  B12    11-1  56.7  -7.5     7     5  
  5   5. Florida St             ACC    12-0  43.7  +5.7     4     4  
  6   6. Alabama                SECw   11-1  24.7  +5.9     8     8  
  7   7. Ohio State             B10e   11-1   8.4  -5.4     6     6  
  8   8. Oregon                 P12    11-2   0.0   0.0     5     7  

Michigan and Georgia stayed about the same, as neither was threatened by Texas. The Longhorns taking a 2nd loss would have seen a bigger improvement since a 1-loss Texas hurts the Wolverines and Bulldogs chances at 12-1. So this rise is mostly from slight formula changes as the Committee projection itself grows more important than other performance factors (also since it's a Monte Carlo simulation, this could be a more or less random result).

Texas should have gained and FSU lost odds, you would think, but the opposite happened. As we covered before, the amount Florida State wins by affects the result, but the balance of factors changes slightly with more information. As it is, Florida State should get in—in our simulation—if they win by a touchdown or more. In real life, any win should be enough but the big Texas win might make the Committee consider FSU's QB situation and whether they're one of the four best teams if they win narrowly.

Alabama is a theoretical threat to both Texas and Florida State, and their odds get a boost, too. But that's mainly taken from Ohio State's diminishing odds. With Texas at 12-1, that's another team guaranteed to be above the Buckeyes. There's no path for them to pass Texas anymore, and with Washington ahead of them, they'd have to pass a 12-1 Michigan (unlikely) or stay ahead of a 12-1 Alabama (also unlikely). Their odds here essentially are for the many simulation runs where they finish #5, which gets credit for being close due to Committee uncertaintly. But when push comes to shove the Buckeyes are almost certainly out of luck, and a 12-1 Alabama captures most of their lost odds. But they still don't get in with a win right now on most trials.

After Washington win, new Playoff Odds help Texas, Alabama

Washington beat Oregon for a 2nd time and their odds predictably took a big jump, making them currently the most likely team to make the Playoff.

Seems like a no-brainer obviously. The Huskies don't have 100% odds only because they normally finish 3rd in the simulation and there's still some uncertainty built in for any team that doesn't finish at the top right now.

Michigan's odds are almost as high as Washington's even though they have yet to play Iowa. Their number barely budged from the Pac-12 game result as they are still ahead of the Huskies if they win, which is about a 95% chance according to our numbers.

2023 Playoff Odds 11:00am 12/02: post-Pac-12 Championship game only

 Ranking                              Curr | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 Prv Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec |%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  6   1. Washington             P12    13-0  98.4 +64.1     3     3  
  1   2. Michigan               B10e   12-0  95.7  -0.1     2     2  
  2   3. Georgia                SECe   12-0  71.0 -11.1     1     1  
  5   4. Texas                  B12    11-1  64.2 +12.5     7     5  
  4   5. Florida St             ACC    12-0  38.0 -16.3     4     4  
  8   6. Alabama                SECw   11-1  18.9 +11.2     8     8  
  7   7. Ohio State             B10e   11-1  13.8  +4.7     6     6  
  3   8. Oregon                 P12    11-2   0.0 -65.1     5     7  

Georgia took a small hit from the result, as they might finish below a 13-0 Washington but were always ahead of a 12-1 Oregon if they beat Alabama. In the big scheme it's pretty inconsequential because they're guaranteed a spot at 13-0 anyway, and the 12-1 result depends on what other teams (and the Committee) do.

Alabama's odds improved as Oregon's loss puts them clearly past the Ducks, who decline to 0.0% with their 2nd loss. It also puts their odds higher than Ohio State's odds for the first time. The Buckeyes clear Oregon too but can't do anything to improve their position, and therefore are dependent on many teams losing. Alabama on the other hand either helps or hurts their cause a lot. Oregon's loss puts them more within striking distance if they beat Georgia. But getting past Texas is still a problem.

Speaking of the Longhorns, the biggest thing that happened is that Texas's odds jumped quite a bit while Florida State's declined. For FSU, it added a team that always finishes ahead of them; in scenarios where Oregon beat Washington the Seminoles often finished ahead of both, but they now finish behind Washington in every sim. And since Texas beats Oklahoma State more often than FSU beats Louisville, the Longhorns often take the 4th (or better spot). 

The oddest thing that happens in our sim is that Texas at 12-1 often finishes ahead of 13-0 FSU. That shouldn't happen in our sim, and it shouldn't happen in real life, but there's concern that the Committee might downgrade FSU if they play poorly in a win over Louisville since their starting QB is out for the season. I swear our algorithm is not an AI, and doesn't know anything about the QB position but FSU's lower Strength rating dings the Seminoles sometimes. When FSU only wins by a small margin, 12-1 Texas beats them out. I ran some scenarios and this is what happens:

FSU wins by:    Texas must win by:
      1              1
      2              1
      3              1
      4             14
      5             44
   6-15             44
     16             55   
     17             n/a

Now, these numbers don't have any real-life meaning; they're just edge cases of an algorithm. But they are consistent with human nature in some ways. Remember how Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0 in 2014, and suddenly they were in the Playoff? Margin of victory matters.

The numbers here basically say that if FSU wins by a field goal or less, then Texas just has to beat Oklahoma State and they get in at 12-1 ahead of 13-0 Florida State. That seems a bit odd, as Texas winning by a small amount wouldn't make them look very good, either.

A big change happens at an FSU win by 4 points; then, Texas has to win by two touchdowns. I'd say this is true for the 1-3 point FSU win, too.

At 5 points, the FSU win becomes much harder to overcome, and now Texas has to win by 44 points. If FSU wins convincingly, by 16 points, Texas needs a 55-0 win to convince the Committee to go with the Longhorns. And if FSU wins by 17, Texas can't reasonably get the nod.

In our "chalk" projection, FSU gets in because the Seminoles win by around 9 points, which requires a huge Texas blowout and we have the Longhorns winning by about 18 points. So either Texas needs a bigger win, or FSU has to win by 4 points or fewer.

In real life, we assume that a 13-0 FSU gets in every time. And if they don't, it might be a 12-1 Alabama instead of 12-1 Texas, but those cases are very rare in our sim. We can't really simulate the minds of the Committee members; that's why every result has uncertainty build into it, and give the results in what the algorithm determines the odds to be. In FSU's case, their odds of winning stayed the same, but their odds of making the Playoff fell, and it might just happen to coincidentally reflect uncertainty in the minds of the Committee members. We'll see.

2023 Conference Championship game prediction: two upsets (but not the big ones)

Here's what the Strength power rating says about this weekend's final games:

Friday Night

C-USA (7pm Eastern) at Liberty (-10 1/2; 57.5)

New Mexico St. 21
Liberty        34

Pac-12 (8pm) Las Vegas, NV (Oregon -9 1/2; 65.5)

Oregon         37
Washington     26

Friday's games are both fun, featuring two teams trying to finish a perfect 13-0: Washington and Liberty. Washington is shooting for the Playoff while Liberty is gunning for a New Year's Six bowl berth. But Washington is a heavy underdog and we pick Oregon to win the rematch handily, even possibly in a revenge-fueled blowout. Washington will need its close-game magic to win this one. We take Liberty to beat the spread against an amazing 10-3 New Mexico State team (2-10 two years ago), but our power rating routinely exceeds the spread by a few points so these results are both pretty standard.

Saturday

Big Twelve (12noon) in Austin (Texas -15; 54.5)

Oklahoma St.   17
Texas          37

MAC (12noon) at Toledo (-8; 43.5)

Miami OH       19
Toledo         27

One game is important, the other isn't, so most people won't watch the upstart Miami Redhawks (10-2) take on the 11-1 Toledo Rockets, the latter another team gunning for a New Year's Six berth. There we have Toledo winning and matching the spread, but their chance of being the top Group of Five team is minuscule due to Liberty and the ACC title game matchup.

The Texas game is a big deal and becomes a bigger deal if any of the undefeated teams is upset. And really a big deal if Alabama beats Georgia. We give Texas partial home field for playing in state but even without it we'd have them beating the spread (which keeps increasing, up from 12 points to 15). Texas has been pretty consistent, though they keep letting teams back into it after a fast start lately. Oklahoma State is all over the place and if the bad version shows up, 20 points is the minimum loss. If the good Pokes show up, this one will go down to the wire.

Mountain West (3pm) at UNLV (+2; 58.5)

Boise State    31
UNLV           32

SEC (4pm) in Atlanta (Georgia -5; 54.5)

Alabama        24
Georgia        28

The mid-afternoon slate is dominated by Alabama vs. Georgia. The Bulldogs are a 5 point favorite but we have them only by 4 even after giving partial home field for playing in Atlanta. This should be a really close game not because these are the best teams but because both teams are relatively weak this year. Whoever exploits the other team's shortcomings will win. As to what happens if Alabama wins, we have no idea but logic dictates that neither team gets in unless there are other upsets. Whether that logic holds is another matter.

The other game features one of our two upset picks: We have UNLV at home edging Boise State, and here the location makes all the difference in our pick. You have an hour to watch this one to see which way it's going before switching to the really important game.

American Athletic (4pm) at Tulane (-3; 47.5)

SMU            28
Tulane         18

Sun Belt (4pm) at Troy (-5 1/2; 52.5)

Appalachian St 22
Troy           29

The other two games on at the same time as Georgia-Alabama feature our other upset pick, and this one our power rating is pretty emphatic about: we've been picking SMU to win the AAC for half the season now, and still have them winning by 10. The oddsmakers vehemently disagree, making Tulane a 3 point favorite at home. Tulane just hasn't looked very good lately, surviving very close calls (3 points or less) vs. 2-10 East Carolina and 4-8 Tulsa, while SMU beat those teams by 21, and 59. Tulane's only loss was at Ole Miss, while SMU fell at Oklahoma and TCU—all the losses by both teams were by 17 points. The problem for SMU—and the likely reason Tulane is favored, in addition to home field—is that the Mustangs will be without starting QB Preston Stone for the game and his backups have played very little.

Either way, the winner of this game should be the Group of Five pick for the New Year's Six bowl game. If Tulane wins that's a near-certainty; if SMU wins the Mustangs might not get the nod over Liberty since they aren't ranked by the Committee yet, so we don't know where they stand. But it makes sense that they would replace the Green Wave since the Committee likes the AAC and SMU's resume is solid. In the Sun Belt title game we have Troy at home winning as expected, exceeding the spread slightly as our power rating tends to do. The Trojans could make the Committee top 25 with a win but their odds to be the GoF rep are almost zero due to competition from Liberty, Toledo, and the AAC teams.

Big Ten (8pm) in Indianapolis, IN (Michigan -22; 34.5)

Michigan       27
Iowa            3

ACC (8pm) in Charlotte, NC (FSU -1 1/2; 47.5)

Louisville     23
Florida St     31

The last two games, both very important and both with big favorites—at least by our power rating. The spread on the FSU game is very slim, and undoubtedly due to FSU's QB being hurt. Our power rating reflects roughly what the spread would be with Jordan Travis healthy, so he's worth around 6 points to the oddsmakers. But there are rumors about Tate Rodemaker being hurt too, or having suffered a concussion against Florida. And there's the idea that the Committee might pass over a 13-0 FSU if they have a weak win against Louisville, in favor of Alabama if the Tide upset Georgia. And of course if the Seminoles lose, they're out, but Louisville is pretty lousy most of the time, let's face it.

As for Iowa vs. Michigan, we saw the blueprint when Iowa travelled to Penn State and lost 31-0. A 27-3 outcome would be about the same on a neutral field. Michigan's defense is about equal to Penn State's, maybe better, and Iowa doesn't throw anything unexpected that might shake things up. The only question is how much Iowa's defense—which is also as good as Penn State's or Michigan's, roughly—might hold the Wolverines out of the end zone and keep things one late play away from an upset. Odds are the Wolverines grind away and score here and there and become the 2nd team to tally more than 16 against the Hawkeyes.

The only other question is, what are Michigan's chances if they lose? They should remain ahead of Ohio State so they'll be in good shape if either Texas or FSU loses. What hurts a 12-1 Michigan is an Alabama win (which could put two SEC teams in) and an Oregon win (Washington might be ahead of them). But there are lots of paths for Michigan, and by the time of this game we'll know most of the outcomes.  

2023 Conference Championship week projections, post-Committee rankings

The Committee really gave us no surprises, in fact their top 13 is exactly the AP top 13. The Committee simply copying the AP has been happening with greater frequency in recent years and this season is the worst, it happened from the first week of the Committee rankings.

So it doesn't change at all my analysis of the Playoff Odds, but the rest of the top 25 shows the Committee liking some teams more than the AP, and neglecting some, too.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff projections: week 13

 Ranking                              Curr   Proj | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec   Rec  |%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  1   1. Michigan               B10e   12-0  13-0   95.0 +18.4     2     2  
  2   2. Georgia                SECe   12-0  13-0   81.7  +8.0     1     1  
  4   3. Oregon                 P12    11-1  12-1   66.2 +13.8     5     3  
  7   4. Florida St             ACC    12-0  13-0   51.1 +12.7     4     4   
  5   5. Texas                  B12    11-1  12-1   50.6  +4.9     7     5  
  3   6. Washington             P12    12-0  12-1   36.4 -23.8     3     6  
  6   7. Ohio State             B10e   11-1  11-1    9.9 -34.2     6     7  
  8   8. Alabama                SECw   11-1  11-2    9.0  -3.7     8     8  

For completeness sake here's the top 8, the only eight teams with a shot at the top four spots. Basically Michigan is a nearly 95% favorite to beat Iowa, so their odds are about 95% to reach the playoff. Georgia is a solid favorite to beat Alabama and could sneak in (somehow) even if they lose, but that's a result that no one can really unwrap via algorithm. Oregon should be in with a win, and they're a strong favorite to beat Washington in the rematch; note that Oregon and Washington's odds add up to around 100%, so one or the other gets in, with a tiny chance for both. Florida State is a solid favorite over Louisville but their probable 4th place finish gives them "positional" doubt, that is, if Alabama beats Georgia then FSU is the most likely team to get screwed.

That means FSU and Texas are overall 50/50 propositions; both are toast if they lose, and neither is a certainty if they win. Will Alabama pass Texas if they beat Georgia? Will both Alabama and Georgia push out FSU? These are questions only the Committee can fuck up. We do see Alabama's odds as very low, both for beating Georgia in Atlanta, and for passing Texas if they do, but if both Texas and FSU lose then a 12-1 Alabama is a rightful shoo-in. And waiting in the wings for a Playoff spot is Ohio State, who gets in if FSU, Texas, Oregon, and Alabama lose. And maybe in the same scenario but replace an Oregon loss with a dominant Oregon win that makes Washington look unpalatable.

 Ranking                              Curr   Proj | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec   Rec  |%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  9   9. Oklahoma               B12    10-2  10-2    0.0  -0.3    12    10  
 11  10. Penn State             B10e   10-2  10-2    0.0   0.0    10     9  
 13  11. Missouri               SECe   10-2  10-2    0.0   0.0     9    11  
 12  12. Mississippi            SECw   10-2  10-2    0.0   0.0    11    12  
 16  13. LSU                    SECw    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0    13    13  
 10  14. Louisville             ACC    10-2  10-3    0.0  -0.2    14    14  

This next section is important for choosing the teams that will fill out the New Year's Six bowls. None of these teams play except Louisville, and with an upset win over Florida State the Cardinals would nab a spot as ACC champs. Our algorithm likes Oklahoma and boosts them as if the Committee is going to agree for some reason, but let's instead look at where these teams should be ranked and why.

The Committee loves Missouri, and has the Tigers above Penn State. Why? No one knows. The Tigers lost to LSU and Georgia and beat pretty much no one. If you want a team with "good" losses and good wins, it's Mississippi that should be at the top. The Rebels have lost only to 12-0 Georgia and 11-1 Alabama, and have wins over LSU and 11-1 Tulane. That should put them above Missouri—who lost to LSU—and also above Penn State, who has similar "good" losses (12-0 Michigan, 11-1 Ohio State) but only a win over 10-2 Iowa. Ole Miss and Missouri's rankings by the Committee should be flipped, with Penn State remaining #10.

And if the Committee really did its job—which is to really look into who these teams have played and beat—then LSU would be ahead of Missouri, too. The Tigers have lost to current #4 FSU, #8 Alabama, and Mississippi, who should be #9. And they beat Missouri. The Tigers can be perfectly ranked with a big of thought, but that appears to be too much for the Committee who is just copying the AP these days. 

 Ranking                              Curr   Proj | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec   Rec  |%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
 17  15. Notre Dame             IND     9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0    17    15  
 20  16. Arizona                P12     9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0    15    16  
 19  17. Oklahoma St            B12     9-3   9-4    0.0   0.0    18    18  
 28  18. Iowa                   B10w   10-2  10-3    0.0   0.0    16    19  
 15  19. Liberty                CUSA   12-0  13-0    0.0   0.0    24    17  
 30  20. North Carolina St      ACC     9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0    19    21  
 26  21. Oregon St              P12     8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0    20    20  
 14  22. Kansas St              B12     8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0    25    22  
 31  23. Clemson                ACC     8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0    23    24  

All the teams above have or will have 3-4 losses so have little chance of getting to a New Year's Six bowl. The exceptions are Iowa and Oklahoma State, who win their conferences if they get an upset win, and Liberty, who is ahead in the race to be the Group of Five rep. We don't see the former happening so let's focus on Liberty: does a 13-0 Liberty get the GoF bid? And where do they finish?

Our "chalk" projection has consistently rated Liberty too high, and they won't get to #17 at 13-0. But becoming a conference championship would get them some of the respect the Committee is denying them. It's clearly due to their weak schedule, which ranks 133rd out of 133 teams. But it's interesting that SOS is only a factor for Group of Five teams. And as I've pointed out before, Tulane's SOS is weaker if you remove the Mississippi game, which they lost. So Tulane is getting ranked ahead of Liberty essentially because they lost to Ole Miss.

 Ranking                              Curr   Proj | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec   Rec  |%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
 22  24. SMU                    AAC    10-2  11-2    0.0   0.0    --    23  
 18  25. James Madison*         SUNe   11-1  11-1    0.0   0.0    --    --  
 23  26. Troy                   SUNw   10-2  11-2    0.0   0.0    --    --   
 33  27. Tennessee              SECe    8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0    21    --   
 25  28. Tulane                 AAC    11-1  11-2    0.0   0.0    22    --  
 21  29. Toledo                 MACw   11-1  12-1    0.0   0.0    --    25

This section includes the rest of the teams vying for the Group of Five top spot. Liberty is currently #24 per the Committee, with Tulane at #22. But they have to beat SMU, who is probably a lot better so the Mustangs are favorites. But the game is at Tulane so they aren't huge favorites. This is why Liberty is the odds-on favorite to finish ahead of either AAC team: Tulane probably won't win, and SMU isn't ranked by the Committee yet and might not pass Liberty. Ultimately though this all comes down to Committee whim, and we can't tell if SMU is #26 right now or #50 in the Committee's minds.

And then there's Troy, who is expected to win the Sun Belt and gets in at #25 per the simulation, but not by the Chalk scenario, and has almost no chance of being the GoF rep because either Tulane or SMU will finish ahead of them. And so will a 12-1 Toledo team. A 12-1 James Madison would be a player here but they will remain 11-1 and won't be ranked by the Committee (though they will be playing a bowl game, thanks to a dearth of 6-win teams).

Note that Tennessee is disliked by my algorithm as much as Oklahoma is liked, and apparently they will tumble out of the top 25 once the Committee realizes its error. Good luck with that! This one's all on the Committee though, as even the AP knows Tennessee should not be in the top 25.

2023 Playoff odds: One week left, so many possibilities: pre-Committee projection

The simplest finish to this nearly upset-free home stretch would be that Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State all end up 13-0 major conference winners and the result is obvious.

But that wouldn't even be the upset-free finish. And even if it happened there's a slight chance the Committee pulls a fast one on the Seminoles like they did vs. TCU back in 2014. But let's just look at the game finishes and see what we get.

2023 Playoff Odds 11/26: post-week 13, pre-Committee meeting

 Ranking                              Curr | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec |%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  1   1. Michigan               B10e   12-0  95.8 +19.2     3     2  
  2   2. Georgia                SECe   12-0  82.1  +8.4     1     1  
  4   3. Oregon                 P12    11-1  65.1 +12.7     6     3  
  7   4. Florida St             ACC    12-0  54.3 +15.9     5     4   
  5   5. Texas                  B12    11-1  51.7  +6.0     7     5  
  3   6. Washington             P12    12-0  34.3 -21.7     4     6  
  6   7. Ohio State             B10e   11-1   9.1 -35.0     2     7  
  8   8. Alabama                SECw   11-1   7.7  -5.0     8     8  

Lots of disruption for another week without any real upsets. Michigan has the best odds after beating Ohio State, mainly because they are such a heavy favorite to beat Iowa for the Big Ten title. And even if they lose that game somehow, if FSU or Texas loses then the Wolverines are practically a guarantee to get the fourth spot at 12-1, as Ohio State isn't going to pass them. Oregon and Washington might both get in ahead of a 12-1 Wolverines, and an Alabama upset of Georgia really jumbles things. But the bottom line is that Michigan is in great shape right now. 

Georgia will likely remain #1 in the Committee rankings and should be a pretty heavy favorite playing Alabama in Atlanta. A win gives them a lock of course, but a loss really throws everything—and I mean everything—up in the air. There's a question of whether Alabama can pass a 12-1 Texas. There's even a question of whether Alabama can pass a 12-1 Georgia, though that would seem obvious, but then can Georgia stay ahead of Texas? The SEC might not get a team in if Alabama wins. But how can a 12-1 SEC winner not get a spot? The situation I've been showing all season—the SEC with relatively low Playoff Odds across the board—is here again if Alabama wins the SEC title.

Oregon is a pretty heavy favorite to beat Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Rematch. At #6 right now (maybe #5 after Tuesday) are they guaranteed a spot if they win? You'd think so, but then there's the Alabama-Georgia problem. Putting that aside, the winner of Oregon-Washington looks to have a spot sewed up, and if you add their odds (65.1% + 34.3% = 99.4%) that is pretty much the odds that a Pac-12 team makes the Playoff. A 0.6% chance of no Pac-12 team, maybe a bit more than that since there's probably a corresponding or bigger chance that both Oregon and Washington get in: if Oregon wins, and two or three of Michigan, FSU, and Texas lose. 

Florida State's odds jumped almost 16% despite a shaky win over Florida—but that's the point, they got the Florida game out of the way without taking a loss. And Louisville is looking weaker after losing to Kentucky. Certainly, FSU has more than a 54.3% chance of beating Louisville, but any team pegged to finish at the #4 spot has some doubt built in that they could slip to #5 at the whim of the Committee. For things like, say, missing your starting quarterback, and playing a pretty mediocre schedule overall (their opener win vs. LSU will remain their best win). How could a 13-0 FSU fall out of the top four? Who knows, but a win by Alabama might be part of the equation along with an SEC-friendly (and ACC-unfriendly) Committee. For the most part though, we should be able to say that if FSU beats Louisville they are in.

But if they fail—or Michigan falls, and probably if Georgia loses—then Texas is in prime position to capitalize. In any situation other than four 13-0 teams, Texas should be in at 12-1 given their win over Alabama. Things are never that simple. We're assuming right now that Ohio State remains ahead of Texas come Tuesday, and if the Buckeyes fall below the Longhorns then Texas is in even better shape just from being a spot ahead (hopefully still with a Buckeye buffer between themselves and Alabama). Because if Alabama beats Georgia it could be the best or worst thing for Texas. As we described above, there might not be a spot for both the Tide and the Longhorns and although the Longhorns would deserve it, the Committee might say "oh that win was so long ago and we need to have an SEC team in the Playoff." In any case, if the Longhorns lose they are out as there are too many 0- and 1-loss teams in any scenario to accommodate the first-ever 2-loss team.

Washington's odds we covered under Oregon, basically win and the Huskies are in (guaranteed), lose and they are very likely out. But if Texas and FSU both lose, they are fighting Ohio State for the fourth spot. And with a split vs. Oregon—especially if the rematch is down-to-the-wire like the first game—the strength of the Pac-12 could put the Huskies in. A Michigan loss would help too, but that's asking a lot. An Alabama win probably doesn't help at all, again, it's hard to say who gets help in that scenario.

The Buckeyes are playing the waiting game like last year, but they need even more help. Ohio State fell to #6 in the AP poll and as long as they only fall that far they have hope. But it's under 10% for a reason: they need a Florida State loss, they need Oregon to lose (or Washington to lose badly), and they need Texas to lose, too. And Alabama can't win—that almost certainly nullified Ohio State for any chance at all as both 12-1 Alabama and 12-1 Georgia would be ahead in line.

Alabama's odds have looked terrible for quite a while in our sim, while other sims (like ESPN FPI) have had the Tide around 35%. But now even the FPI joined the club and had Alabama at a dismal 12% or so—before they seemed to revise things and boosted the Tide to around 28%. The assumption is that Alabama gets in at 12-1, and it's not a bad assumption but in my sim they rarely do better than #4, which leaves a lot of doubt. If Texas wins by the rules of fairness the Tide should not pass them, making a Michigan, Oregon/Washington, FSU, Texas final four a great possibility. But the rules of fairness are not always followed, and a Tide win could leave a 12-1 Texas out. Or both 12-1 Washington and Oregon. ESPN's FPI has the game 50/50 while I lean to Georgia a lot more, especially in Atlanta.

Really no simulation is prepared to get in the Committee's minds if Alabama wins, and our 7.7% is no doubt far too low. I'm not gonna cook the books to make things seem more realistic though, you can only get so much from an algorithm. No algorithm would have predicted TCU falling from #3 to #6 after winning 55-3. Them's the breaks.

I'll revise these numbers when the Committee makes their decisions on Tuesday; the key is how far Ohio State drops. If they only fall to #5, that gives the Buckeyes a lot more hope. If they fall to #8 below Alabama, the Buckeyes are toast and Alabama's odds will jump along with Texas's odds too.

 

No upsets allowed: Washington, Alabama both win by a field goal

Washington  24
Wash State  21

Alabama 27
Auburn  24

Typical of the late 2023 season, two more big upset chances fall flat as Washington hits a last-second field goal to avoid overtime (they probably would have won anyway, since upsets are no longer allowed) and Alabama scored a late touchdown to beat Auburn.

It looks like the biggest upset of the day is going to remain #10 Louisville losing and sinking their 0.2% Playoff odds.

There's still hope left as Georgia Tech is playing the Bulldogs pretty close, and the Gators actually lead the Seminoles. But I'm not expecting anything but a close win by Georgia and FSU.

It must really suck to be Texas right now. Any other year and the team that started at #7 in the rankings would be up to #5 by now, and would just need a win in their conference championship game to move into the top four. Instead they're still at #7, and have to hope they pass Ohio State this week; they should pass Oregon or Washington next week; and then they need someone else to lose their title game.

And if that someone is Georgia, the Longhorns have to pray they don't get passed by Alabama, whom they beat in Tuscaloosa!

Shocking upset (for 2023): Kentucky 38, #10 Louisville 31

In what counts as a stunning upset for late 2023, #10 Louisville lost to Kentucky 38-31, ending their College Football Playoff hopes which prior to the game we had pegged at 0.2% or 1 in 500.

 Ranking                              Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  1   1. Michigan               B10e  11-0  13-0  12.6- 0.4  76.6 -12.0     3     1    
  2   2. Georgia                SECe  11-0  13-0  12.6- 0.4  73.7  -5.1     1     2    
  6   3. Washington             P12   11-0  12-1  12.2- 0.8  56.0 +21.4     4     6    
  5   4. Oregon                 P12   10-1  12-1  11.6- 1.4  52.4  +2.6     6     3    
  7   5. Texas                  B12   10-1  12-1  11.8- 1.2  45.7 +25.6     7     4    
  3   6. Ohio State             B10e  11-0  11-1  11.3- 0.7  44.1 -26.5     2     7    
  4   7. Florida St             ACC   11-0  13-0  12.5- 0.5  38.4 -13.0     5     5    
  8   8. Alabama                SECw  10-1  11-2  11.1- 1.9  12.7  +7.0     8     9    
  9   9. Oklahoma               B12    9-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1   0.3  +0.2    13     8    
 10  10. Louisville             ACC   10-1  11-2  11.2- 1.8   0.2  +0.1    10    13    

There have been so few upsets down the home stretch of the 2023 season that this one is one of the two biggest so far. In fact, it's one of only two upsets total. The last was former #9 Oklahoma losing to Oklahoma State in week 11.

Will there be more? Still left to play are #1 Georgia, #4 Washington, #5 Florida State, and #8 Alabama. Georgia is a 24 point favorite over Georgia Tech, Washington is a 15 point favorite vs. Washington State, Alabama is favored over Auburn by 13.5, while FSU is just -6.5 vs. Florida.

Where are the upsets?

It's the final Saturday of college football's regular season (pre-conference championships) and I've been wondering, where are the upsets?

The chaos we normally see has been completely absent this year. Not even a bit of the usual intrigue in 2023.

Look at the first College Football Playoff Committee ranking of the year, and take the top 13, all the teams with 1 loss or fewer, and here's how they've fared in the last three weeks (plus through Friday):

1. Ohio State (8-0):won 3 straight, now 11-0. Fell to #2 for no reason. A loss to Michigan won't be an upset
2. Georgia (8-0): won 3 straight, now 11-0. Moved up to #1. Plays Georgia Tech today.
3. Michigan (8-0): won 3 straight, now 11-0, still #3. A loss to Ohio State would be a minor upset at best.
4. Florida State (8-0): won 3 straight, now 11-0. Fell to #5 due to lack of big wins, hurt QB. Plays Florida.
5. Washington (8-0): won 3 straight, now 11-0. moved up to #4.
6. Oregon (7-1): won 4 straight, now 11-1. Still at #6 due of no upsets above them.
7. Texas (7-1): won 4 straight, now 11-1. Still at #7 due to no upsets above them.
8. Alabama (7-1): won 3 straight, now 10-1. Still at #8 due to no upsets above them.
9. Oklahoma (7-1): lost to OK State, then recovered to 10-2. The only contender to be upset so far. Now at #13
10. Mississippi (7-1): lost to Georgia as expected, now 10-2. Now at #12
11. Penn State (7-1): lost to Michigan as expected, now 10-2. Now at #11
12. Missouri (7-1): lost to Georgia as expected, now 10-2. Now at #9
13. Louisville (7-1): won three straight, now 10-1. Now at #10

So going into Saturday's action, out of 42 chances for an upset, only one upset (Oklahoma State over Oklahoma) has occurred, and only 4 teams have taken a loss at all. And the top 13 teams are the same top 13 from three weeks ago, in a very slightly different order.

Last year there were more upsets after just one week, with LSU beating #6 Alabama and Notre Dame beating #4 Clemson. #1 Tennessee lost to Georgia but that wasn't really an upset at the Bulldogs were #3.

Then the next week, #6 Oregon was upset by Washington, and #12 UCLA got beat by Arizona.

And in the third week after the rankings came out, #5 Tennessee was upset by South Carolina.

Go back to 2021 and #3 Michigan State got beat by Purdue, #8 Wake Forest lost to UNC, and #12 Baylor lost to TCU in the first post-Committee week. #8 Oklahoma lost the next week to Baylor. #3 Oregon fell the next week.

So it's normal to have about 5 upsets after three weeks of Committee rankings. We're at 3.5 weeks and there's been just one, to a team that started at #9. No upsets—and not even a non-upset loss—in the top eight so far. 

And already this weekend #6 and #7 have won, and #2 and #3 will feature a loss but it won't be an upset either way. That leaves Georgia, FSU, Washington, and Alabama with a chance to suffer a meaningful upset. I'm not holding my breath. 

Where are the upsets???

The lack of upsets meant that in our Playoff Odds projection, the top teams actually had reduced odds, due to the reduced chance that a team that loses a single game can make the top four:

 Ranking                              Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  1   1. Michigan               B10e  11-0  13-0  12.6- 0.4  76.6 -12.0     3     1    
  2   2. Georgia                SECe  11-0  13-0  12.6- 0.4  73.7  -5.1     1     2    

Two weeks ago Michigan was looking like a near sure thing, with good odds even if they lost to Ohio State. But as of last week's odds, their certainty was reduced, as was Georgia's. The upsets that might have occurred in the intervening week didn't happen, and with only a game or two left, the chance for chaos needed to put a 1-loss team in the Playoff—normally there are a few of them—is reduced.

It's looking more and more like the Playoff field will be composed of undefeated teams, and maybe a few 1-loss teams that win out rather than late-term upset losers. In other words, not a Michigan, Georgia, Ohio State, or Washington who loses at this juncture, but the teams that win out and win their conference championships, be they one of the mentioned teams or an Oregon or Texas or even Alabama.

In other words, we've been saying for a while that Florida State had better win out, or they're out. Now, because no one has been losing, it applies to pretty much everyone in the running.

2023 week 11: Georgia, Michigan finally storm to the top

It's taken a long time but Georgia finally looked like a national title contender. Meanwhile Michigan claimed the top spot and has several routes to a Playoff bid. Here's the latest Playoff Odds, revised after the Committee's top 25 was released yesterday (11/14)

 Ranking                              Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  3   1. Michigan               B10e  10-0  13-0  12.6- 0.4  88.6 +25.2     3     1  
  7   2. Georgia                SECe  10-0  13-0  12.2- 0.8  78.8 +47.6     1     2  
  1   3. Ohio State             B10e  10-0  11-1  11.3- 0.7  70.6 -15.7     2     5  
  2   4. Florida St             ACC   10-0  13-0  12.6- 0.4  51.4 -12.3     4     3  
  4   5. Oregon                 P12    9-1  12-1  11.6- 1.4  49.8  -5.7     6     4  

Michigan's win over Penn State cleared their penultimate hurdle, and with it the Wolverines gained over 25% and now show a whopping 88.6% odds to make the Playoff. They have a lot of paths, too. Obviously if they beat Ohio State and go 13-0 (a fairly high probability) they will be either #1 or #2, but they can probably go 12-1 (with a loss to Maryland) and make it. They would be in the running at 11-1 with a close loss to the Buckeyes, and if there is finally chaos, even a 12-1 Michigan that lost to Iowa in the Big Ten title game would have a shot.

Georgia is #1 in the Committee's top 25 now and more importantly, they're #2 in our projection after crushing Ole Miss 55-17. The Tennessee game no longer looks very dangerous, and the Bulldogs will be a solid favorite to beat Alabama. These developments launched Georgia from #7 to #2, adding almost 50 percentage points to their odds (essentially tripling them). All their hurdles got shorter simultaneously while the Bulldogs look much stronger.

Ohio State still has a good chance, though their odds drop around 15%. Beating Michigan is still the key, obviously, though all hope is not gone at 11-1 as they found out last year. Florida State and Oregon both lose a bit, too, mainly because it's looking like Georgia is going to remain ahead of them; before this week, it appeared that the Bulldogs would lose somewhere and fall below these teams. Oregon and FSU are both at almost exactly 50% odds. It may appear to mean that one team or the other takes the last spot, but with multiple scenarios it really means that 25% of the time just Oregon makes it, 25% of the time only FSU makes it, 25% of the time neither makes it, and 25% of the time, they both make it. In fact in the Chalk projection (w/no upsets), both teams get in as Ohio State falls out of the top four.

 Ranking                              Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  6   6. Washington             P12   10-0  11-2  11.7- 1.3  34.6   0.0     5     7  
  5   7. Texas                  B12    9-1  12-1  11.5- 1.5  20.1 -16.3     7     6  
  8   8. Alabama                SECw   9-1  11-2  11.0- 2.0   5.7  -8.2     8     8  
 12   9. Oklahoma               B12    8-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1   0.1  +0.1    14     9  
 11  10. Louisville             ACC    9-1  11-2  10.7- 2.3   0.1  -0.2    10    14  

These next five teams are the only others that really have a chance, and it ranges from very solid to almost none. Washington is undefeated and has a clear path, it's just that Oregon is becoming more and more of a favorite to win their rematch for the Pac-12 title—and even Oregon State is a 50/50 game. They also have to survive Oregon State and Washington State when all of their last six games have been close calls! Texas's odds dropped almost in half this week: they barely survived a TCU comeback and have to go 12-1, beating either Oklahoma (still a tall order) or Oklahoma State (which won't help them much in stature). Further, it's looking like a 12-1 Texas probably doesn't get to the top four. There just haven't been any of the usual upsets clearing the way.

It's even worse for Alabama, whose odds are below 6% by our system. That's probably low, but in so many scenarios they end up behind Texas, and Texas either doesn't make it themselves or finishes #4. Sure, if Alabama beats Auburn and beat Georgia they'll be 12-1 SEC champs, but will that put them ahead of Texas? Or do the Longhorns get the spot that opens when Georgia falls out? Also, the Tide's odds of beating Georgia have diminished as the Bulldogs finally come to life.

Louisville has only 1 loss but their odds are no better than Oklahoma's somehow. The Sooners would be the first 2-loss Playoff team but they're only 14th in the Committee rankings and beating Texas a second time might not be considered impressive. They have to get to the Big 12 title game first, and they're in line with several teams there. And with so few upsets happening—Oklahoma is the only team that really fell victim to upsets—their odds are a bleak 0.1%. The Cardinals problem is 2-fold: they don't look good enough to finish 12-1; and, when they finish 12-1 they rarely get into the top four anyway.

 Ranking                              Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
 13  11. Oregon St              P12    8-2   9-3   8.6- 3.4  <0.1   0.0    11    13  
  9  12. Penn State             B10e   8-2  10-2  10.0- 2.0  <0.1 -11.2    12    10  
 16  13. Missouri               SECe   8-2  10-2   9.6- 2.4  <0.1   0.0     9    11  
 10  14. Mississippi            SECw   8-2  10-2   9.9- 2.1  <0.1  -3.4    13    12  
 17  15. LSU                    SECw   7-3   9-3   8.7- 3.3   0.0   0.0    15    15  
 18  16. Kansas St              B12    7-3   9-3   8.7- 3.3   0.0   0.0    21    16  
 20  17. Notre Dame             IND    7-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1   0.0   0.0    19    17  
 19  18. James Madison*         SUNe  10-0  12-0  11.4- 0.6   0.0   0.0    --   (17)

The 2-loss teams here show a tiny prayer based on absolute chaos happening, but it doesn't look a 2-loss team can make it. Penn State's odds evaporated with their 2nd loss, even though they've only lost to undefeated teams. Missouri is the highest-ranked 2-loss team by the committee at #9 after a big win over Tennessee, but we don't see them advancing much (if at all) by going 10-2. Oregon State still plays both Washington and Oregon so they have the best opportunity to move up significantly, but their odds of winning both plus the Pac-12 title game are minuscule (though as we noted, we favor the Beavers very slightly to beat Washington in Corvallis). Ole Miss is in Penn State's shoes—losses to the big dogs (Georgia, Alabama) shut them out of their conference title race.

LSU, Kansas State, and Notre Dame have 3 losses so their 0.0% odds are very literal. They still have a shot at a New Year's Day bowl but there are a lot of teams with 1 or 2 losses that could fill those slots. Upsets are just not a thing lately in college football! James Madison is again listed to show approximately where they'd finish if they were eligible, or if they become eligible with their last-ditch efforts. They'd be the clear favorite for the Group of Five Big Six bid, especially considering this projection doesn't include a berth in the Sun Belt title game.

 Ranking                              Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
 22  19. Liberty                CUSA  10-0  13-0  12.8- 0.2   0.0   0.0    --    19  
 25  20. Arizona                P12    7-3   9-3   8.4- 3.6   0.0   0.0    17    18  
 14  21. Tennessee              SECe   7-3   8-4   8.3- 3.7   0.0   0.0    18    --  
 31  22. North Carolina         ACC    8-2   9-3   9.0- 3.0   0.0   0.0    20    24  
 35  23. Iowa                   B10w   8-2  10-3   9.5- 3.5   0.0   0.0    16    22  
 23  24. Utah                   P12    7-3   8-4   8.3- 3.7   0.0   0.0    22    --  
 15  25. Oklahoma St            B12    7-3   9-4   8.6- 4.4   0.0   0.0    23    20  
 21  26. Kansas                 B12    7-3   8-4   7.9- 4.1   0.0   0.0    25    23  

Instead the Big Six bid might go to Liberty, the only eligible Group of Five team in our projections. The trouble is, Liberty isn't yet ranked by the Committee and each week that happens their stock goes down a bit. Their terrible SOS is the problem, but if they end up 13-0—which is seeming very likely now—they will at least crack the top 25. We'll take a look at their competition in a bit.

The big move here—in the wrong direction—comes from Oklahoma State, who suffered their 3rd loss in a terrible way, 45-3 at UCF. After five big wins in a row, a BIg 12 title game bid looking certain, the Cowboys blew it and probably blew their New Year's Six hopes too. They're still in the driver's seat for a Big 12 title game bid though, given their wins over Kansas State, Kansas, and Oklahoma. But that collapse calls into question whether they can compete with Texas. I guess it depends which version of OK State shows up.

Tennessee also took a big fall after getting mauled by Missouri. Iowa beat Rutgers 22-0 and took a huge leap with the Committee (up to #16!) which pushed them into our top 25 for the first time. They look destined to get destroyed by Michigan/Ohio State though so our Chalk projection doesn't see them remaining in. North Carolina is another team that enters the projected top 25 as they held on to edge Duke, but—like Iowa—despite having only 2 losses they really have no path to the Playoff, even if the last few weeks have maximum chaos. Iowa could easily be 9-1 and truly in the running for a Playoff spot, and UNC should probably be undefeated at this point. But that didn't happen, and here they are. 

In the Pac-12, Arizona improved their lot while Utah fell. The Utes played Washington close but the Committee really downgraded them which knocked them out of the the Chalk top 25 at a projected 8-4. But overall odds say they'll remain in, somewhere near the bottom, as there have got to be at least a few upsets at some point!

 Ranking                              Curr | Projected     |  Bowl        CFP   Chalk
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)| %Odds  %Chg  Curr  Proj
 24  27. Troy                   SUNw   8-2  11-2  10.6- 2.4  100.0   0.0     
 26  28. SMU                    AAC    8-2  11-2  10.5- 2.5  100.0   0.0   --    21
 29  29. Southern Cal           P12    7-4   8-4   7.7- 4.3  100.0   0.0
 30  30. Toledo                 MACw   9-1  12-1  11.1- 1.9  100.0   0.0   --    25
 28  31. Duke                   ACC    6-4   8-4   7.8- 4.2  100.0   0.0
 37  32. Clemson                ACC    6-4   8-4   7.2- 4.8  100.0  +2.8
 27  33. Tulane                 AAC    9-1  11-2  10.5- 2.5  100.0   0.0   24    --

Other teams we might see by the end: SMU and Toledo aren't projected to make it by the averaged odds, but if things all go according to plan both teams will make the Committee's final 25. That makes the Mustangs and Rockets both possibilities for the Group of Five New Year's bowl game. We see SMU beating Tulane, who is currently #24 per the Committee, and finishing at #21, while Toledo at 12-1 would just edge their way into the conversation. (Note that this projection was done before Toledo almost blew it last night!)

Troy actually has better odds of getting in, but at 11-2 they wouldn't stay ahead of an 11-2 SMU and a 12-1 Toledo. And a 12-1 Tulane would be the highest-ranked of all, so the Green Wave pretty much control their destiny to the New Year's Six bowl. But it's going to be hard to beat SMU who is on a roll right now while Tulane is struggling somewhat.

Texas A&M Fires Jimbo Fisher After 51-10 loss. No, wait...

Jimbo Fisher got fired by Texas A&M the day after beating Mississippi State 51-10. Yes, you heard that right.

Not only that, but they will have to pay him at least $76 million and maybe nearly $100 million for the privilege of getting another coach who will be just as mediocre at the school.

A&M went 5-7 last year in a disappointing season. They are 6-4 this year in a disappointing season. They are likely to finish 7-5 this year.

Fisher had great recruiting classes but didn't turn that into great seasons. The next coach probably won't have quite as great recruiting, and probably will have roughly the same on field success. A&M seems to think they should be able compete with anyone in the SEC, despite Texas and Oklahoma joining next year. Seven wins is probably what to expect for a good year going forward.

The only guarantee is the new coach's buyout, when he is fired, will be much, much smaller.

Is Michigan worse without Harbaugh on the sidelines? If so how much?

Michigan's early games weren't as good as their games since. Was the difference the presence of Jim Harbaugh coaching the team? If so, how much worse were they when he wasn't there?

Here's our chart of Michigan's performance this year:

Harbaugh was suspended for the first three games, and two of those games were clearly the team's worst. Here are the scores that correspond with the numbered games:

1.   #111 East Carolina       30- 3  64.5
2.   # 56 UNLV                35- 7  76.9
3.   #106 Bowling Green       31- 6  62.9
4.   # 41 Rutgers             31- 7  76.6
5. @ # 65 Nebraska            45- 7  89.2
6. @ # 74 Minnesota           52-10  91.4
7.   # 83 Indiana             52- 7  88.0
8. @ # 98 Michigan St         49- 0  93.6
9.   # 77 Purdue              41-13  71.8

According to this, Michigan's best games so far were:

• [Game 8] beating Michigan State 49-0 in Lansing
• [Game 6] Minnesota 52-10, also on the road
• [Game 5] beating Nebraska 45-7 in Lincoln
• [Game 7] beating Indiana 52-7 in Ann Arbor

Those were all "Harbaugh games", 4 of the 6 games he's coached. The first game he coached, a 31-7 win over Rutgers, was the 6th best game, and the recent win over Purdue was the 7th best. The first three "non-Harbaugh" games rank 8th, 5th, and 9th.

The average rating of the games he coached is 86.17, about 17 points better than the three games he didn't. Overall in the games he didn't coach, the team did 11 points worse than the average for the season.

By our power rating, the game at Penn State is virtually a toss-up, and the oddsmakers have Michigan a 4 point favorite.

So does this make Penn State the favorite on Saturday? If the psychology is the same, then yes. But it's too hard to predict what the actual team psychology will be compared to the beginning of the year, when Harbaugh was suspended for violating Covid-era recruiting guidelines. A tentative start to the year is different than the coach being suspended later in the year. The team might rally around him and play with even more intensity. So far the line hasn't really moved, after coming down slightly over the last week.

There's also a chance Michigan gets an injunction against the Big Ten and Harbaugh ends up coaching anyway.

Either way, it's another interesting twist to an up-in-the-air College Football Playoff season.

2023 Week 10 Playoff Odds: Big Ten Logjam coming after all?

Lots of chances for upsets but almost nothing happened, that's what Week 10 was all about in College Football. Other than Oklahoma, none of the top teams lost and most of them did well enough to keep their odds high. There were a few complicating factors, however. This is a pre-committee analysis, check the Playoff Odds page for updated numbers after the Committee meets again.

The "over 50% club": Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, Oregon

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP*  Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
  1   1. Ohio State             B10e  9-0  11-1  11.3- 0.7  75.8  -4.4     1     6  
  2   2. Michigan               B10e  9-0  11-1  11.1- 0.9  67.7  -2.5     3     5  
  3   3. Florida St             ACC   9-0  13-0  12.5- 0.5  64.4  -2.8     4     1  
  4   4. Oregon                 P12   8-1  12-1  11.6- 1.4  56.3  +5.8     6     3  

Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State, and Oregon remain the most likely teams to make the Playoff, all still checking in at over 50%, but everyone except the Ducks are down a bit. Ohio State and Michigan both underperformed slightly and Florida State underperformed by double digits. Still, FSU comes out at #1 as the only 13-0 team if you go game-by-game rather than looking at the odds; our current game by game scenario is probably the only one that leaves the Seminoles at the top.

Oregon beat Cal 63-19 which was on par for their defense and about 2 touchdowns better on offense. This doesn't explain all the movement, however; as we'll see the Big Ten once again got wonkier with Penn State's hope of beating Michigan going up—which is why both Ohio State and Michigan are out of the top four in projected final ranking on a game-by-game lens. We'll look at that some more, but first, check this out:

A three-way tie for first-team out: Texas, Georgia, Washington

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP*  Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
  8   5. Texas                  B12   8-1  12-1  11.3- 1.7  35.7 +14.0     7     2  
  7   6. Georgia                SECe  9-0  12-1  11.4- 1.6  35.5 +13.6     2     4  
  5   7. Washington             P12   9-0  12-1  11.5- 1.5  34.6  +5.8     5     7  

A practical three way tie for the #5 spot between Texas, Georgia, and Washington. Of course these are averages of thousands of possible outcomes, and if Oregon doesn't make it, it's probably because Washington beat them. And one of the Big Ten teams is very likely to fall out. But the big winners this week were clearly Texas and Georgia. Texas overcame perhaps their biggest hurdle in Kansas State—tough as it was—and might not even have to face Oklahoma again (and the Sooners are looking easier to beat anyway). Georgia cleared a big hurdle in Missouri (that was tough as well) but they have a few more in Tennessee and Alabama so while their odds soar, they remain around 1 in 3. Washington got past USC (also a tough game) and that's a good road win. So even as they fall from #5 to #7 in Playoff Odds, those odds increase. Both Texas and Georgia project to 12-1 and end up in the top four if everything goes as expected from here on out (but does it ever?)

Tiebreaker in Big Ten West rears its ugly head again?

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP*  Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
 10   8. Alabama                SECw  8-1  11-2  11.1- 1.9  13.8  +2.3     8     9  
  9   9. Penn State             B10e  8-1  12-1  11.4- 1.6  13.5  +1.2    11     8  
 11  10. Mississippi            SECw  8-1  10-2  10.3- 1.7   2.3  -5.6    10    11  
 13  11. Louisville             ACC   8-1  11-2  10.8- 2.2   0.4  -0.3    13    13  

Here's where things get weird—the rest of the current 1-loss crew. Penn State's Playoff odds only went up marginally, mostly due to Ohio State and Michigan slipping a bit, but their game-by-game projection is now 12-1, meaning they are favored to beat Michigan (very slightly) and actually win the tiebreaker. That's right, their un-common opponents in the West division are now ahead of the other teams' opponents. Or something like that. See this article, and know that it's now already out of date. In the game by game scenario Penn State beats Michigan but doesn't pass Ohio State; then Michigan beats Ohio State and passes both of them. Penn State's win over Iowa (probably less impressive than the 31-0 the first time) bores the Committee to death and NO BIG TEN TEAM makes the Playoff. Hard to imagine Penn State finishing at #8 at 12-1 and Big Ten champs, but they could end up #5, with the other teams #6 and #7. It could get weird.

Putting that specific scenario aside, Alabama improved their odds slightly with the LSU win, but they still probably lose to Georgia. The big loser here was Mississippi, who needed LSU to beat Alabama to have any real hope of winning the SEC. They still play Georgia and can make a big scene with that, and hope things shake out so that an 11-1 Rebels slips in. Their odds are down to 2.3% which shows how likely all of that is. Louisville handled Virginia Tech easily, 34-3, but their odds dropped because there are so many other teams crowding them out, it's just starting to look like it can't happen, even if they go 12-1.

The Nearly Hopeless: Oklahoma, Oregon State, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, Utah

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP*  Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
  6  12. Oklahoma               B12   7-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3  <0.1 -25.0     9    10  
 15  13. Oregon St              P12   7-2   8-4   8.5- 3.5  <0.1  -0.1    16    25  
 20  14. Tennessee              SECe  7-2  10-2   9.0- 3.0  <0.1   0.0    17    12  
 26  15. Oklahoma St            B12   7-2  10-3   9.3- 3.7  <0.1   0.0    22    14  
 21  16. Utah                   P12   7-2   8-4   8.5- 3.5  <0.1   0.0    18    24  
 24  17. James Madison*         SUNe  9-0  12-0  11.4- 0.6   0.0   0.0    --    --  

Speaking of "looking like it can't happen" here we are: The group that technically has some hope, since 2-loss teams have come close, but this year doesn't look like a 2-loss team will be anywhere near. Game by game, 11-2 Alabama finishes 9th, that's the closest 2-loss projected for this year. Oklahoma lost pretty much all hope with their 2nd loss but lead the field of 2-time losers. Oregon State's tepid win over Colorado didn't make them look like a Playoff hopeful. Tennessee demolished UConn 59-3, and it made them the favorite over Georgia again, but that won't win the East for them so their odds went nowhere (we'll see what happens if they do beat the Bulldogs). Oklahoma State didn't even really get anywhere (they were at 0.0, now at <0.1) by beating Oklahoma; it makes them the favorite to get to the Big 12 title but probably lose to Texas. And the ghost of James Madison again looks to finish undefeated, but again, it doesn't matter as they aren't eligible for postseason play.

The Newly, Truly Hopeless: LSU, KSU, Notre Dame, Missouri

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP*  Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
 12  18. LSU                    SECw  6-3   9-3   8.7- 3.3   0.0  -1.4    14    15  
 16  19. Kansas St              B12   6-3   9-3   8.7- 3.3   0.0  -0.1    23    16  
 17  20. Notre Dame             IND   7-3   9-3   8.9- 3.1   0.0  -0.1    15    20  
 14  21. Missouri               SECe  7-2   9-3   8.8- 3.2   0.0  -0.4    12    18  
 23  22. Kansas                 B12   7-2   9-3   8.6- 3.4   0.0   0.0    21    17  

LSU and Kansas State really looked like they were playing the best of any teams in the nation, and they gave it their all but fell in their big games, resulting in loss #3 for both of them and permanent 0.0% odds from now on (unless insanity occurs). Notre Dame was playing lights out too and was favored to beat Clemson but that upset loss zeroed them out, too. And Missouri had their shot at Georgia but it wasn't good enough; they are technically in better shape than the others since they only have 2 losses but there's no real path to win the SEC. And because Kansas has lost to both Texas and Oklahoma State, their path to win the Big 12 looks closed as well.

The New Top 25 Teams: Liberty, Troy, Arizona, SMU

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP*  Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
 25  23. Liberty                CUSA  9-0  13-0  12.6- 0.4   0.0   0.0    --    19  
 29  24. Troy                   SUNw  7-2  11-2  10.6- 2.4   0.0   0.0    --    21  
 31  25. Arizona                P12   6-3   9-3   8.2- 3.8   0.0   0.0    --    23  
 27  26. SMU                    AAC   7-2  11-2  10.3- 2.7   0.0   0.0    --    22  

These four teams aren't in the CFPC rankings (as of last week) but some of them will be come Tuesday, and if all goes to plan they will all finish in the top 25. Liberty has an abysmal schedule but a 13-0 finish should let them peak in, maybe not as high as #19 but somewhere in the 20s most likely. Troy, in lieu of James Madison's elibility, should win the Sun Belt and end up ranked. Arizona just beat UCLA and will probably be ranked this week; we have them at #23 if they win out and that might be too low. And SMU is our favorite in the AAC over Tulane, and an 11-2 SMU should be ranked in the 20s but maybe not until the American title game happens.

The dropouts: Tulane, USC, UCLA, Air Force

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     |  Bowl        CFP
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)| %Odds  %Chg  Curr  Proj
 32  27. Tulane                 AAC   8-1  11-2  10.7- 2.3  100.0   0.0   24    --
 28  28. Duke                   ACC   6-3   8-4   8.2- 3.8  100.0  +0.1
 18  29. Southern Cal           P12   7-3   8-4   7.7- 4.3  100.0   0.0   20    --
 30  30. Toledo                 MACw  8-1  12-1  11.0- 2.0  100.0   0.0
 34  31. North Carolina         ACC   7-2   9-3   8.5- 3.5  100.0   0.0
 33  32. Fresno St              MTN   8-1  10-3  10.6- 2.4  100.0   0.0
 22  33. UCLA                   P12   6-3   8-4   8.2- 3.8  100.0   0.0   19    --
 19  34. Air Force              MTN   8-1  11-2  10.6- 2.4  100.0   0.0   25    --

Not all these teams will fall out of the CFP Committee rankings this week. Tulane won, though awfully, 13-10 over 1-8 East Carolina, so they will probably hold their spot but we favor SMU in the American title game. UCLA and USC will probably be out this week, as will Air Force who got crushed by Army 23-3. Though in game by game terms we still see Air Force beating Fresno State in the Mountain West final, the Falcons will probably lose to Boise State along the way anyway, and Fresno's likely finish is about the same or higher.

Other teams within striking distance of the Top 25 if all goes well are Duke who could finish 9-3, Toledo who probably will finish 12-1 but still won't quite make the top 25, and North Carolina, who re-entered the AP Top 25 but will probably drop another game or two and miss the final rankings.

Bowl Odds Madness: Kentucky seals the deal at Mississippi State's expense

Bowl odds change rapidly in this part of the season as teams chase six wins. Teams that already had six wins probably had a high percentage all along and made it to 100% quickly, but other teams whipsaw back and forth as their fortunes change. Here are the biggest movers from this weekend's action:

Game of the week: Kentucky 24, Mississippi State 3

Team                    Conf    Rec     LW%     Bowl%    %Chg
Kentucky            	SECe	6-3	69.6	100.0	+30.4
Mississippi St      	SECw	4-5	69.8	 19.5	-50.3

This game changed fortunes a lot. Both teams had around a 70% chance of making a bowl game even though Kentucky was at 5 wins and the Bulldogs at 4 wins. With the win Kentucky reaches six wins, hitting 100% of course and doesn't have to worry about finding a win among Alabama, South Carolina on the road, or Louisville. Mississippi State's odds tanked to around 20%, as they need to beat two of Texas A&M, Southern Miss, and Ole Miss. They were clearly counting on Kentucky being one of those two wins.

Other big winners:

Team                    Conf    Rec     LW%     Bowl%    %Chg
Arkansas St         	SUNw	5-4	13.1	 49.5	+36.4
Central Michigan    	MACw	5-4	24.5	 58.2	+33.7
Georgia Tech        	ACC 	5-4	42.7	 75.3	+32.6
Appalachian St      	SUNe	5-4	54.1	 84.2	+30.1

The rest of the big winners still need one more, but it shows how much better your odds get when you reach 5 wins.

Arkansas State upset Louisiana-Lafayette 37-17 and zoomed up 36%. The Red Wolves are only 50/50 to beat another team this year; they have South Alabama, Texas State, and Marshall left. UL-Lafayette needs a win but their odds hardly budged, down 1.6% to 97.9% (they have Southern Miss and ULM on their remaining schedule)

Central Michigan took a big step toward eligibility beating Northern Illinois 37-31. They have Western Michigan, Ohio, and Toledo left, so their odds will probably go right back down if they don't beat the Broncos on Tuesday. Northern Illinois is only 4-5 but still shows 91.5% odds as they also play Western Michigan along with 1-8 Kent State and 2-7 Ball State.

Georgia Tech is back up; they've been yo-yoing all season. Now they have a 75% bowl chance after beating Virginia 45-17. They play Clemson, Syracuse, and Georgia so it's not a done deal by any means, but they have the Orange at home. Virginia's odds weren't good to start with—0.2%—and they went to zero with their 7th loss.

Appalachian State has the best odds of the group, 84%, following a 31-9 drubbing of Marshall. They were the only team already above 50% and they got a lot closer, but they have three tough games left vs. 6-4 Georgia State, 9-0 James Madison, and 6-3 Georgia Southern. Marshall fell 22% and are now just under 50% odds at 4-5.

And the week's biggest losers:

Team                    Conf    Rec     LW%     Bowl%    %Chg
TCU                 	B12 	4-5	60.4	 33.4	-27.0
Syracuse            	ACC 	4-5	79.7	 52.4	-27.3
Florida Atlantic    	AAC 	4-5	67.5	 36.9	-30.6
Washington St       	P12 	4-5	72.6	 26.9	-45.7
Navy                	AAC 	3-5	58.0	  8.1	-49.9

TCU hit turbulence and now looks like a bowl bust after falling to Texas Tech 35-28. With two wins needed and Texas and Oklahoma among the opponents left, it's going to be tough. Texas Tech doubled their odds but are still only at 37% themselves, as they are 4-5 with Texas and Kansas still to come.

Syracuse is another power five that looked like they were in great shape but now fall to just above 50/50 with the loss to Boston College. The teams left (Pitt, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest) aren't so daunting but they've lost 5 in a row now, so winning two of three will be tough against anyone. Still, two games are at home and the odds still (barely) say they get it done. Boston College's win put them over the hump at 6-3 (they were at 87.5% before).

Florida Atlantic took a dive but they still have hope following a loss to UAB. Beating Tulane doesn't seem likely but they have 1-8 East Carolina at home, and 4-5 Rice on the road. So they'll probably get one win...and maybe another. UAB is only 3-6 so they need to win three in a row, an 18.4% proposition (+11.2%) according to our numbers. 

Washington State, like Syracuse, went from 4-0 to 4-5 and their odds have followed suit, dropping from nearly 75% just last week to almost 25% this week after the loss to Stanford. They still have 3-6 Cal and 4-5 Colorado if they want to get it done (and 9-0 Washington). Just two weeks ago it looked like they'd get six wins by beating lowly ASU and Stanford but those teams had other plays. Stanford is now 3-6 and their bowl odds doubled...from 0.1% to 0.2%. They need to beat Oregon State, Cal, and Notre Dame. Good luck to the Cardinal.

and Navy's odds absolutely plummeted with their upset loss to Temple. From well over 50% to well under 10%, the Midshipmen lost a 50% chunk and now sit at 3-5. Assuming they can't beat SMU, they'll have to beat UAB, East Carolina, and Army. That sounds doable but Army just upset Air Force 23-3. Despite the big upset win Temple's odds remained exactly the same. They had to win four in a row, now they have to win three in a row, and their bowl odds are still a minimal 0.1%.

2023 Week 10 Preview: Which 2-loss team will shock the nation? Rutgers, K-State, Oklahoma State, USC, or LSU?

2-loss teams are pretty much out of the running for the Playoff; no 2-loss team has ever made it. But each year it seems there are a few 2-loss teams that make a run at finishing in the top four. This week, five prominent 2-loss teams take on top contenders and they could advance their position—or at least play spoiler. Out of these five contests, odds are at least one will hit the upset jackpot.

• Rutgers (6-2) vs. #1 Ohio State (8-0) [-18 1/2]
  Losses: @#3 Michigan 31-7, @Wisconsin 24-13
  How much would a win help?
  Rutgers is a forgotten 2-loss team—meaning, I keep forgetting they only have 2 losses. They have zero wins over winning teams, and a tough schedule coming up. A win over Michigan would put them in the Committee top 25 and with Iowa and Penn State next, they'd have the opportunity to move even higher—but even winning out probably doesn't win the Big Ten East, so 10-2 is their ceiling.
  How much would it hurt Ohio State?
  A lot, but the Buckeyes would still control their destiny in the Big Ten and any 12-1 Big Ten champ probably gets in the Playoff. Probably. 
  Who is rooting for Rutgers the most? Penn State
  The Nittany Lions need Ohio State to lose twice, and Michigan can hand them the other loss. Penn State would still have to beat Michigan, of course—and Rutgers as well.
  
  
• #23 Kansas State (6-2) at #7 Texas (7-1) [-4]
  Losses: @#12 Missouri 30-27, #22 Oklahoma State 29-21
  How much would a win help?
  Kansas State is at least already in the top 25 and are arguably playing like a top 5 team lately. The Wildcats would pass Texas in the Big 12 race but they'd still be behind Oklahoma State, and don't play Oklahoma. Their Playoff Odds would remain low.
  How much would it hurt Texas?
  It would basically kill their Playoff hopes, being their 2nd loss. 
  Who is rooting for Kansas State the most? Alabama
  Even a 12-1 Tide finishes behind a 12-1 Texas, perhaps being pushed to #5 in that scenario. With the Longhorns out of the way a 12-1 SEC champion Alabama squad makes it 99 times out of 100.
  
  
• #22 Oklahoma State (6-2) vs. #9 Oklahoma (7-1) [-6]
  Losses: South Alabama 33-7, @Iowa State 34-27
  How much would a win help?
  With those losses, even an 11-2 Oklahoma State isn't a Playoff threat. But they'd be in good shape to make the Big 12 title game, being ahead of Kansas State and Oklahoma, behind Iowa State, and tied with Texas—a win over Oklahoma probably means they get the nod. Their next three games—UFC, Houston, BYU—are pretty manageable.
  How much would it hurt Oklahoma?
  A 2nd loss knocks the Sooners out of Playoff competition for all intents and purposes.
  Who is rooting for Oklahoma State the most?
  Maybe Oregon, who doesn't want a 12-1 Oklahoma to finish ahead of them. It would simultaneously diminish the threat of a 12-1 Texas leaping them, since beating a 2-loss Oklahoma won't give the Longhorns as much boost.
  
  
• #20 USC (7-2) vs. #5 Washington (8-0) [-3]
  Losses: @#15 Notre Dame 48-20, #18 Utah 34-32
  How much would a win help?
  USC's Playoff stock is way down but a win over undefeated Washington might be enough to jump start it. With just 1 conference loss the Trojans control their Pac-12 destiny to an 11-2 finish, and beating both Washington and Oregon would turn some heads. They can still finish in the top 10 but a top four finish would be tough, though not impossible.
  How much would it hurt Washington?
  The Huskies are already the lowest-ranked undefeated Power Five team per the Committee, so taking a loss would set them back a lot—down to around #9 Oklahoma's level or #10 Ole Miss. Washington would no longer control their destiny to the Pac-12 title game, though if they did get there and beat Oregon a 2nd time, they'd still have a strong argument.
  Who is rooting for USC the most?
  Not Oregon, who wants Washington to be undefeated when they rematch. Possibly Florida State, who is #4 and wants to make sure they remain in the top four. The more top teams that lose, the happier FSU is.
  
  
• #14 LSU (6-2) at #8 Alabama (7-1) [-3]
  Losses: @#4 Florida State 45-24, @#10 Mississippi 55-49
  How much would a win help?
  LSU is the top-ranked 2-loss team right now, and a road win over Alabama would be huge. LSU made a "run" as a 2-loss team last year so this would be familiar territory and they're playing their best right now. 
  How much would it hurt Alabama?
  A 2nd loss kills anyone but Alabama, who always remains in the running. But no one has made it with 2 losses yet, even the TIde. Alabama will be the top-ranked 2-loss team—except for LSU that is.
  Who is rooting for LSU the most?
  Again, Florida State is a good answer: LSU is probably their best win and it only grows if this happens. It also eliminates the possibility of a 12-1 Alabama edging out a 13-0 FSU for the #4 spot, which sadly is a possibility.
  
  Another good answer is Mississippi, the other team to beat LSU. They want to reach the SEC title game but need LSU to force a 3-way tie with Alabama. In that case the tiebreaker comes down to whose East division SEC foes have the better conference record. Alabama plays Tennessee and Kentucky; LSU has Missouri and Florida; and Ole Miss has Vanderbilt and Georgia. LSU probably wins that one 9 to 8 over Ole Miss who has probable 8-0 Georgia and probable 0-8 Vanderbilt. The Rebels will have to root hard for Vandy to win a game, which ties them with LSU and they win the tiebreaker. Hoping instead for a 3rd Alabama loss seems a bit much.

2023 Projected Final Committee rankings, post-week 9

Our Committee Playoff Odds are the result of 10,000 season simulations and compute a team's odds to make the Playoff. But the order isn't very informative beyond that. Since it's an aggregate, you only see a team's average placement, and you get things like: Ohio State and Michigan being the top two teams, despite the fact that their fates are heavily intertwined, to say the least!

Another helpful projection shows the results of a no-upset trial: if every team does what they're expected to do, where will they finish? While the no-upset scenario is unlikely to happen (really, no upsets at all?), it shows a real-world snapshot instead of the fuzzy "odds" and we see more teams "from the future" that could end up ranked in the final Committee rankings, even if the averages say otherwise. Here's our top 25 ordered by Final Projection in a no-upset scenario:

 Ranking (by simulation)             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Proj 
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
  4   2. Michigan               B10e  8-0  13-0  12.1- 0.9  70.2 +16.5     3     1  
  3   3. Florida St             ACC   8-0  13-0  12.5- 0.5  67.2  -0.1     4     2  
  9   7. Georgia                SECe  8-0  13-0  11.2- 1.8  21.9 +10.1     2     3  
  5   4. Oregon                 P12   7-1  12-1  11.4- 1.6  50.5 +15.8     6     4   
  2   6. Oklahoma               B12   7-1  12-1  11.0- 2.0  25.0 -43.5     9     5  
  1   1. Ohio State             B10e  8-0  11-1  11.2- 0.8  80.2  +9.0     1     6  
  6   5. Washington             P12   8-0  12-1  11.0- 2.0  28.8  -5.1     5     7  
  7   8. Texas                  B12   7-1  11-2  10.5- 2.5  21.7  +2.5     7     8  
 10  10. Alabama                SECw  7-1  11-2  10.6- 2.4  11.5  +0.2     8     9  
 11  11. Mississippi            SECw  7-1  10-2  10.0- 2.0   7.9  +0.9    10    10  
  8   9. Penn State             B10e  7-1  10-2  10.2- 1.8  12.3  -3.1    11    11  
 16  19. Air Force              MTN   8-0  13-0  12.1- 0.9  <0.1  -0.2    25    12  
 18  17. Notre Dame             IND   7-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3   0.1  -0.1    15    13  
 20  16. Kansas St              B12   6-2   9-3   9.1- 2.9   0.1   0.0    23    14  
 17  14. Missouri               SECe  7-1  10-2   9.1- 2.9   0.4  +0.2    12    15  
 23  13. Louisville             ACC   7-1  11-2  10.5- 2.5   0.7  +0.7    13    16  
 13  12. LSU                    SECw  6-2   9-3   9.2- 2.8   1.4  -0.5    14    17  
 29  23. Kansas                 B12   6-2   9-3   8.2- 3.8  <0.1   0.0    21    18  
 28  25. Liberty                CUSA  8-0  13-0  12.5- 0.5   0.0   0.0    --    19  
 19  24. James Madison*         SUNe  8-0  11-1  10.8- 1.2  <0.1* -0.1    --   (20) 
 31  26. Oklahoma St            B12   6-2   9-3   8.2- 3.8   0.0   0.0    22    20  
 33  27. SMU                    AAC   6-2  11-2  10.1- 2.9   0.0   0.0    --    21  
 32  29. Troy                   SUNw  6-2  11-2  10.1- 2.9   0.0   0.0    --    22  
 40  31. Arizona                P12   5-3   9-3   7.6- 4.4   0.0   0.0    --    23  
 15  28. Duke                   ACC   5-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7   0.0  -0.4    --    24  
 21  18. Southern Cal           P12   7-2   8-4   8.2- 3.8  <0.1   0.0    20    25   
 12  15. Oregon St              P12   6-2   8-4   8.4- 3.6   0.1  -3.2    16    --  
 24  20. Tennessee              SECe  6-2   8-4   8.9- 3.1  <0.1   0.0    17    --  
 14  21. Utah                   P12   6-2   8-4   8.1- 3.9  <0.1  -0.4    18    --  
 27  22. UCLA                   P12   6-2   8-4   8.6- 3.4  <0.1   0.0    19    --  
 35  32. Tulane                 AAC   7-1  11-2  10.5- 2.5   0.0   0.0    24    --

Note right away that in a no-upset scenario, the odds favorite and current CFP #1 Ohio State does not make the cut, finishing #6. The Buckeyes Playoff Odds went up to over 80% after the first Committee rankings (a +4.2% bump) but if they lose to a 13-0 Michigan they're probably out of luck. How does the expected scenario only happen 20% of time? Because there are so many more scenarios where they do finish in the top four, including winning out (obviously), losing to Michigan but the Wolverines lose to Penn State and the Buckeyes end up 12-1; or an 11-1 team getting in because of upsets that plague the other top teams. Michigan vs. Ohio State is around a 50/50 game but it tilts to Michigan so they end up 13-0 and ranked #1 in that scenario.

Two other teams that make it are projected at 13-0: Florida State and Georgia. The Seminoles have good odds (about 2 in 3) for this to happen, but for Georgia going 13-0 is not likely in the aggregate sense. They're favored to beat Missouri, Mississippi, and then Alabama in the SEC final, but their odds of doing all of them are low. Still, a 13-0 Georgia makes the Playoff comfortably, and probably doesn't fall to #3 either; they'd stay ahead of the Seminoles even if Michigan passed them for the top spot.

The last spot comes down to two 12-1 teams who win their power conference: Oregon and Oklahoma. And Oregon avenging their loss to Washington is judged more important than Oklahoma beating Texas a 2nd time. They're followed by 11-1 Ohio State, then Washington, Texas, and Alabama, all three losers in their conference championship game.

The rest of the list isn't as important, but predicts:

• a 13-0 Air Force would overcome the Committee's hostilities toward its bad SOS and finish #12, earning the Group of Five New Year's Six berth;
• shows 10-2 Notre Dame barely rising in the ranks after beating Clemson, Wake Forest, and Stanford; realistically they'd be ahead of Air Force
• probably has it wrong when showing a 9-3 Kansas State finishing ahead of 10-2 Missouri, who beat them; 
• suggests that an 11-1 James Madison that was eligible would finish around #20. Seems a bit high, but it's probably about where the Dukes would finish if they won the Sun Belt title game and finished 12-1

After this, there are many new teams in the "final" rankings and a lot of teams projected to fall out in the no-upset scenario:

• Liberty goes 13-0 and ends up #19. That may be a long shot with their #133 SOS but they'd probably get in the top 25
• SMU and Troy win their conferences and finish 11-2 and #21 and #22. This seems about right.
• Arizona finishes 9-3 and enters the rankings while fellow Pac-12 teams Oregon State, Utah, and UCLA drop out. USC somehow hangs on at #25 (Utah is more likely to stay in than the Trojans if both are 8-4).
• Tennessee at 8-4 drops out, as does Tulane after losing to SMU in the AAC final

 

2023 Initial CFP Committee Rankings (reaction): The AP Poll is good enough for the Committee

The first Committee Rankings are out, and...they basically just copied the AP poll, with a few minor adjustments. Over the years they've been getting less independent but this year is the worst. The top 8 are almost exactly the same. In fact, using my formula (which failed to predict the top ten very well at all) but doubling the weight of the AP poll, I managed to match the top 9 places. So compared to the average year, the Committee was twice as unoriginal this time around.

Here's the Committee Top 25, with the divergence from the AP poll in parens:

1. Ohio State (up 2): This was what we (and most everyone) predicted, but in practice it wasn't due to their two big wins necessarily. See below
2. Georgia (down 1): The Committee basically copied the top 8 of the AP poll but had to dock Georgia a spot for their terrible SOS.
3. Michigan (down 1): Ditto with the awful triple digit Wolverine SOS. Basically last year is as important as this year, is what the Committee is saying
4. Florida State (even): Looks like the Clemson win isn't much of a plus any more.
5. Washington (even): No real credit for the Oregon win, except being ahead of Oregon
6. Oregon (even): Yeah the Washington game was very close, but Ohio State is 10 spots ahead of Penn State
7. Texas (even): Their win over Alabama is much better than anything Oregon can claim, but whatever
8. Alabama (even): If they had lost to Texas on the road instead of at home, I swear the Committee would rank them higher than the Longhorns. They want to so bad.
9. Oklahoma (up 1): They give the Sooners a little more credit for beating Texas than the AP does
10. Mississippi (up 1): I figured they'd put Ole Miss here since they have the Tulane win and Penn State has no top 25 wins
11. Penn State (down 2): Their résumé is very similar to Oregon's: loss to undefeated team, win over 6-2 team, but here they are 5 spots lower
12. Missouri (up 2): Tigers are given credit for beating K-State, and only loss is to LSU
13. Louisville (up 2): Interesting, I'm glad the Committee put 1-loss Louisville over 2-loss Notre Dame whom they beat. I didn't think they would.
14. LSU (down 1): Tigers are the first 2-loss team...but should be ahead of Missouri
15. Notre Dame (down 3): The biggest downgrade from the AP so far. The Duke and USC wins are waning in value.
16. Oregon State (even): beat both Utah and UCLA, so they are top dog in the 2nd-tier of the Pac-12
17. Tennessee (up 2): Interesting that the Vols get an upgrade from their AP #19. They have beaten three 5-3 teams I guess.
18. Utah (even): Beat both UCLA and USC so they are properly ahead of them
19. UCLA (up 1): Résumé very similar to USC
20. USC (up 4): Biggest upgrade of the lot. Why? They've beaten one winning team. People who think the Committee looks at components like offense and defense and shuns teams with bad defense, are clearly mistaken; maybe they love strong offense more?
21. Kansas (up 1): Arguably could be behind Oklahoma State (who beat them) but they have the Oklahoma win, so...
22. Oklahoma State (up 4): Another big upgrade, and we had the Cowboys at #24 (by formula) or #22 (my guess). They beat Kansas and K-State but have 2 poor losses too
23. Kansas State (up 2): The Wildcats are a tough team to rank, they are hot and cold. This seems right, behind OK State who beat them.
24. Tulane (down 3): Tulane's SOS is around #100, and the Committee always hates non-Power Five teams if they can. But Tulane proved themselves last year by finishing in the top 25 so they get a pass.
25. Air Force (down 8): By far the biggest downgrade in the list, and I suspected it would happen. Our formula said #20, and I had #23 but pondered that the Falcons' #129 SOS might keep them out altogether. But as I noted, there aren't many candidates beyond these teams. I thought maybe Arizona would get in instead of Tulane, but it was neck and neck.

So there you have it. Clearly SOS only matters really if you're a non Power Five team, otherwise it's A-ok to play nobody and end up #2 or #3. Not that this matters in the long run, as Power Five teams all end up playing tough teams. Michigan and Georgia have about the toughest remaining schedules of any teams, while Air Force's slate doesn't get much harder.

Like in previous years, the Committee re-shuffling of the AP top 25 isn't very well thought out, though commentators treat it like the Bible. USC up four spots for playing the worst defense of any top 25 team? That's not insight, it's just random. They did put Louisville ahead of Notre Dame which I commend, but then why isn't Oklahoma still ahead of Texas? 

And there's the Penn State vs. Oregon discrepancy. Both have a road loss to an 8-0 Power conference team (Ohio State; Washington), and a dominant win over a 6-2 team (Iowa; Utah). Utah is ranked while Iowa isn't, but other than that, Oregon has 2 wins over 4-4 teams while Penn State has a 4-4 win and a 5-3 win. Then they each have an FCS win and three wins over losing teams. Is that five spots worth of difference? They've been equally dominant in their wins, pretty much. 

The bottom line? The AP puts Oregon at #6 and Penn State at #9, so the Ducks were going to be ahead in the Committee unless they went radical. Instead, they pushed them farther apart, which is the wrong direction. The AP has it better, three spots apart not five.

So the question is, is the Committee's top 25 "better" than the AP's? It should be given its importance, but I'm not sure it is. It's a mixed bag:

• Having Georgia #2 is better than having them at #1 right now, but not by much. An entirely new, from scratch re-evaluation of the season with no looking at last year's results would have the Bulldogs lower than that.
• Most of the top ten is just a rip-off of the AP anyway, so what's the point?
• They increase the AP's error in having Oregon too far ahead of Penn State; the AP's discrepancy is defensible, the Committee's isn't
• Having Missouri (7-1) above LSU (6-2), who beat them, is questionable. The AP has LSU first, and logically it works since LSU lost to #4 FSU and #10/11 Ole Miss, both higher than Missouri. Putting LSU ahead of Missouri makes all their results consistent. So I give this one to the AP, big time. The Committee is the one that is supposedly analyzing these things as a group, while the AP is just a collection of lists! These things are why I have no confidence that the Committee will get things right, especially early on when you really have to think.
• They do have Louisville (7-1) ahead of Notre Dame (7-2), which is good
• They have the minor Pac-12 teams in the right order (Oregon State, Utah, UCLA, USC), but so does the AP. The Committee does have UCLA and USC back to back, which is better than the AP which has four spots between them when their losses are very similar (I suspect it was just random though—they were talking Pac-12 and put all the teams in a cluster).
• They put Oklahoma State, who beat Kansas and Kansas State, in the top 25 while the AP has them just outside. But that's not the AP's fault as they rank 8-0 James Madison, who isn't eligible for the Committee's top 25. 
• The Committee puts Tulane (7-1) and Air Force (8-0) at the bottom, when the AP has them #21 and #17. Is this good? If you value SOS, yes. But they didn't really follow through with Georgia and Michigan. You can say those teams are proving their worth with their gameplay, but Air Force is a solid team by that standard too. It really makes it look like anti-Group of Five bias, which the AP poll has too, but it's not as bad as the Committee. It looks like they got to #23 and realized hey! We only have Power Five teams ranked so far! Better throw in a couple of Group of Fivers! And rank them by SOS to show how important SOS is! Which, by the way, the only reason Tulane's SOS is better is the inclusion of Ole Miss—and they lost that game. A 7-0 Tulane has a schedule that is barely better than Air Force's—so they are getting a lot of credit for playing a game and losing it.
• Overall the average deviation from the AP rank is 1.64 places, and for the entire top 11 you can argue there are just two moves: Ohio State from #3 to #1, and Penn State from #9 to #11. For the top 19, the average deviation is 1 place.

So I'd say the Committee did not improve on the AP's ranking all in all. Tasked with starting from scratch, they punted and made obvious and sometimes erroneous minor moves. Take any random 13 votes from the AP and you might get something similar. Which is disappointing considering the Committee actually meets and discusses these rankings in depth, whereas the AP voters just vote (presumably while eating breakfast on Sunday, watching NFL previews). 

But luckily these early issues tend to go away. The AP will copy most of the Committee's moves. Why, I don't know, but watch for Air Force to inexplicably fall in the AP, Ohio State to pass Michigan, and if Georgia looks week at all against Missouri the Buckeyes will be #1 on the 5th. And the two lists will march in lockstep as the season goes on, each influencing the other here and there until the final week when they're almost the same. 

This year, though, the Committee should have just copied and pasted the AP top 25, would have saved them a lot of time and ended up just as good, right from the start.

2023 Initial College Football Playoff Committee Rankings (prediction by formula)

Tomorrow we find out the Playoff Committee's first rankings of the season, and it's always interesting. Why? Because they like to throw a few curves to make sure it looks like they are superior to the AP Poll. They aren't, but that's a dirty little secret (shh!). Here's how the Committee works:

1. Put out a first set of rankings that diverges from the AP in several key ways, mostly to create an impression that they are really taking this seriously and Strength of Schedule (SOS) is very important!
2. The AP poll quickly revises itself the next week to conform to the Committee's pronouncements
3. The Committee and the AP Poll pretty much follow in lockstep after that, with the AP influencing the Committee just as much as the other way around

Remember in 2014 when the Committee dumped TCU from #3 to #6 after a huge win? The AP Poll did it first. It wasn't a huge bout of free thinking from the Committee. In fact, all of the Committee's radical departures from the AP happen in the first rankings. It's easy to do that in your initial ranking, but after that, the process of "moving teams up and down based on starting point" becomes the Committee's modus operandi just like the AP.

For that reason, the Committee's initial ranking is by far the hardest week of rankings to predict. They're semi-random, it seems. There's a lot based on SOS, yes, but mostly the AP poll provides a good starting point. But there will be dramatic departures, so you can't expect the order to be very similar. We've made a model, and it's sort of accurate. Sometimes teams get credit for a great SOS, other times they don't. And yes, it absolutely matters what you did last year, as we will find out. Interesting note: by the final rankings, SOS means almost nothing—I've found it to be 25x as important in the first ranking as it is in the final raking, when the pecking order has been firmly established by actual gameplay so SOS comparisons are only a tiebreaker in the lower part of the rankings.

In any case, here's what our model says, with record, AP, Strength power rating, Success power rating, and SOS:

Projected 10/31 Committee rankings (by formula):

Rnk Team                Rec   AP   Str  Suc  SOS    Pts   My guess
 1. Ohio State          8-0    3    2    1    21    46.0     1
 2. Florida St          8-0    4    7    3    47    79.1     2
 3. Michigan            8-0    2    1    6   112    96.4     4
 4. Washington          8-0    5   11    2    55    97.1     3
 5. Oregon              7-1    6    3   13    38   100.3     7
 6. Texas               7-1    7    9    4    36   106.1     6
 7. Georgia             8-0    1   14   11   115   106.3     5
 8. Alabama             7-1    8   12    8    17   111.3     8
 9. Oklahoma            7-1   10    6    7    37   136.7     9
10. Notre Dame          7-2   12    4   18     5   148.1    11
11. Penn State          7-1    9    8   15    65   154.1    12
12. Mississippi         7-1   11   16    9    31   155.0    10
13. LSU                 6-2   13   10   22    13   173.1    13
14. Oregon St           6-2   16   15   23    25   216.5    15
15. Missouri            7-1   14   28   17    58   221.7    14
16. Louisville          7-1   15   20   16    57   222.1    17
17. Utah                6-2   18   25   20     4   230.5    16
18. Kansas              6-2   22   27   14    22   277.6    18
19. UCLA                6-2   20   18   28    62   287.4    19
20. Air Force           8-0   17   26   12   129   288.0    23
21. Southern Cal        7-2   24   13   26    16   291.9    20
22. Tennessee           6-2   19   21   36    69   292.8    21
23. Kansas St           6-2   25    5   29    39   311.2    24
24. Oklahoma St         6-2   NR   24   19    34   327.1    22
--  James Madison       8-0   23   32    5   104   331.5    --
25. Duke                5-3   NR   17   44    14   336.4    Arizona #25

Yikes. The first thing that stands out is Georgia at #7, below 1-loss Oregon and Texas. This will not happen. But look at their SOS (#115) and look at how they've played against that schedule (Strength #14) and tell me they should be #1?

Where should the Committee put the Bulldogs? If they're at #1 they're basically admitting that they haven't been paying attention to this year's results, but last year's. At #2, they're still admitting this but trying to not be so obvious. At #3 or #4 they're giving a nod to Georgia's weak schedule and so-so play but still being swayed by last year's championship. #5 is perfect, since it still means a 13-0 Georgia gets in, which is obvious.

Ohio State will probably get the #1 spot, with a strong SOS and two very solid wins: Penn State and Notre Dame. Florida State is a strong #2, with only 1 of their wins over a team with a losing record, and the LSU win is looking better again. Then it gets sketchy: You could put the teams from #3 to #7 in almost any order.

I assume the Committee will put the five undefeated teams at #1 to #5. Michigan's schedule is as weak as Georgia's but they've been completely dominant unlike the Bulldogs, so I think Michigan does deserve to be ahead. But Washington has a great win already (Oregon) and the Committee will probably put them #3 (they're less than 1 point from the Wolverines anyway) since their SOS is reasonble. Georgia at #5 would make sense given the Committee's pronouncements, but we'll see. The Bulldogs should be anywhere from #3 to #5.

It would cause mayhem among Georgia fans if they were below Oregon and Texas, but there's no real reason they should be ahead of them. If the Bulldogs had finished 7-5 last year, this year's team would be suspect and people would say they've been lucky to be undefeated against a crappy schedule. And looking at Oregon (only loss to Washington) and Texas (beat Alabama) it wouldn't be crazy to have Texas, at least, ahead of them, though I doubt it will actually happen. I do think Texas will be ahead of Oregon, though, since the Ducks don't really have a signature win, and the Committee thinks beating Alabama is the height of quality (on the road, admittedly, it's pretty damn rare).

The rest of the list is a crapshoot. The Committee just starts pulling teams in, and the press says "wow, we didn't notice how good that team was, they must be good because the Committee ranked them high." But Alabama and Oklahoma have decent schedules and one loss; the Committee probably won't care that Oklahoma beat Texas and Alabama didn't, but that order might be reversed. Penn State's SOS is poor so they might slip below Mississippi; both teams have a loss to a good team. Mississippi beat LSU so the Rebels will stay ahead of the 2-loss Tigers.

Notre Dame at #10 is another interesting forecast. Sometimes a 2-loss team doesn't show up until around #18 in the initial rankings, but there have been years with a #10, even a #8. And Notre Dame has a great SOS, losses only to ranked teams, and solid wins over USC and Duke. And the name does matter. They might be behind Penn State and Ole Miss, as their wins got diminished recently, but they've been playing great and that SOS is smokin' hot.

After that, it's a jumble of teams that really could be an any order. Air Force ends up at #20 here, but with the #129 SOS the Committee might exclude them, or put them at #25 to show us how seriously they take SOS. But without them there might not be any non-Power Five teams in the mix, and there is always at least one. James Madison we include for Dukes fans who want to know where they might be if they were eligible. At 8-0 against as tough of a schedule as Georgia, they probably deserve a lot better than a phantom entry at #25! But their Strength is pretty poor (#32) and they're only #23 in the AP.

The #25 spot is wide open. Here, 3-loss Duke manages to make it. There's a 3-loss team about half the time in the initial poll, so it isn't out of the question, and they do have some good wins. But they were just shut out by Louisville and their signature win over Clemson doesn't look so hot any more. That SOS, though! 

If the Blue Devils don't make it, here are the next five choices by our formula and why they could (or can't) make it:

• Arizona (5-3) also 3 losses, but good SOS (#20), and just beat Oregon State. Pretty even choice with Duke with much better recent play, but they would be Pac-12 team #7!
• Tulane (7-1) only loss is to Ole MIss, and a "good" loss sometimes helps. Might get the nod over Air Force or supplement them as another non-Power 5
• Wisconsin (5-3) three losses again! Not the best SOS (#50) and lost to the next two teams on this list!
• Washington State (4-4) WTF Four losses? Not gonna happen
• Iowa (6-2) Finally another 2-loss team, beat Wisconsin, lost to Penn State and Minnesota. But that offense might turn off the Committee!

As you see, there aren't a lot of great choices to fill 25 teams. Even 8-0 Liberty should be out of the question for having the absolute worst SOS in the nation, and not being very good objectively. They finish #43 by our formula.

Post-week 9 Playoff Odds: Oklahoma's woes help Pac-12

Week 9 is over and the Playoff situation is getting a big clearer in one way: There can no longer be five 13-0 power conference champs. So that very unlikely but possible nightmare scenario won't ever have happened in the 4-team Playoff era.

I'll be updating these probabilities when the first College Football Playoff Committee rankings come out on Tuesday.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
  1   1. Ohio State             B10e  8-0  11-1  11.2- 0.8  76.0  +5.7           1  
  4   2. Michigan               B10e  8-0  13-0  12.1- 0.9  72.2 +18.5           2  
  3   3. Florida St             ACC   8-0  13-0  12.5- 0.5  67.6  +0.3           3  
  5   4. Oregon                 P12   7-1  12-1  11.4- 1.6  52.2 +17.5           4  
  6   5. Washington             P12   8-0  12-1  11.0- 2.0  28.4  -5.5           5  
  2   6. Oklahoma               B12   7-1  12-1  11.0- 2.0  23.8 -44.7           6  

The Big Ten crowds the #1 and #2 spots, with Michigan now expected to beat both Penn State and Ohio State but overall less likely to make the Playoff due to have two killer games left while the Buckeyes have just one. The Wolverines gained almost 20% this week while being idle—that's due to underperformance from their two big tests, especially Penn State.

The Wolverines were also assisted by Oklahoma's loss as the Sooners fell from #2 to #6 losting about 2/3 of their odds after losing to Kansas. No Big Twelve team controls its destiny any more as there can still be four 13-0 Power conference champs to shut them out. The Sooners remain in good shape, but fall behind both Oregon and Washington of the Pac-12. The Ducks passed the Huskies who had another rough game against an inferior foe, beating Stanford 42-33 while Oregon crushed Utah 35-6 and is heavily favored to win a rematch with Washington. Florida State barely budged at #3 as all the benefit of Oklahoma's loss went elsewhere due to the ACC's usual struggles.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
  9   7. Georgia                SECe  8-0  13-0  11.2- 1.8  23.6 +11.8           8  
  7   8. Texas                  B12   7-1  11-2  10.5- 2.5  21.1  +1.9           7  
  8   9. Penn State             B10e  7-1  10-2  10.2- 1.8  14.3  -1.1           9  
 10  10. Alabama                SECw  7-1  11-2  10.6- 2.4  11.3   0.0          10  
 11  11. Mississippi            SECw  7-1  10-2  10.0- 2.0   7.1  +0.1          11  
 13  12. LSU                    SECw  6-2   9-3   9.2- 2.8   1.4  -0.5          13  

Georgia benefitted too, almost doubling their odds and moving ahead of Texas, who saw their sole loss look worse and a future great win diminish due to Oklahoma losing. The Bulldogs are back to being favored in every game but it's rather tenuous; both Mississippi and Alabama are roughly as good as Georgia and suddenly LSU is playing like a top five team. The Tigers aren't currently expected to make the title game and they don't play Georgia otherwise, but they could force a three-way tie in the SEC West by beating Alabama. They'd win the tie because their West division record would be perfect. This is why they still have 1.4% odds with 2 losses—they might beat Alabama and Georgia still and with luck that could put them in the top four.

Penn State dropped for a 2nd straight week as they struggled with Indiana, winning 33-24 when they should have defeated the Hoosiers by about 7 touchdowns. They're back to being projected at 10-2 in the conference.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
 23  13. Louisville             ACC   7-1  11-2  10.5- 2.5   0.4  +0.4          16  
 17  14. Missouri               SECe  7-1  10-2   9.1- 2.9   0.2   0.0          17  
 18  15. Notre Dame             IND   7-2  10-2   9.7- 2.3   0.1  -0.1          12  
 12  16. Oregon St              P12   6-2   8-4   8.4- 3.6   0.1  -3.2          19  
 20  17. Kansas St              B12   6-2   9-3   9.1- 2.9   0.1   0.0          14  
 16  18. Air Force              MTN   8-0  13-0  12.1- 0.9  <0.1  -0.2          15  

Other than FSU there's not much from the ACC worth crowing about, but Louisville revives themselves with their 23-0 shutout of Duke. By this time in the year any Power conference team with one loss is still alive, even if just 0.4% like the Cardinals or 0.2% like Missouri. Louisville's loss to lowly Pitt really hurts them while Missouri's low odds are more due to not being expected to navigate the rest of their schedule (Georgia and Tennessee are next)

Notre Dame, like LSU has 2 losses and is in the top ten in Strength. So why are their odds so negligible (0.1% to LSU's 1.4%) ? The Irish don't have the chance to go 11-2 with two huge wins. They pretty much have their big wins already—a Duke team that just got their 3rd loss and a USC team that looks on the verge of getting their 3rd any moment. Beating Clemson just won't do it as the Tigers are 4-4—another reason the ACC has no leeway, it's FSU or bust and if the Seminoles lose a game the ACC probably gets shut out. Note that Notre Dame has less chance of losing a game from now on, and that's why their expected finish is #12, better than LSU's expected finish.

Oregon State has two losses now and faces both Washington and Oregon but their odds of winning both are minuscule so they drop from 3.3% to 0.1%.  Kansas State has 2 losses and is #5 in Strength. They play Texas next and if they win they'll probably play Oklahoma for the Big Twelve title. So why aren't they at 1.4% like LSU? Aren't wins over Texas and Oklahoma nearly as good as beating Alabama and Georgia? They are, but Kansas State will likely be starting from much lower in the initial Committee rankings. A 2-loss team with a power conference championship and two huge wins might move from #10 or 15 to the top four, but going from around #20 or 25 to the top four is a bigger journey and K-State almost never makes it in our simulations.

Air Force's last win (Colorado State 30-13) wasn't good enough to keep them above water with even 0.1% odds. As long as they keep winning they'll probably be at "<0.1%" but even 13-0 won't get them much past #15, which is where their average ending rank is.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | CFP   Proj
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Final
 21  19. Southern Cal           P12   7-2   8-4   8.2- 3.8  <0.1   0.0          21  
 24  20. Tennessee              SECe  6-2   8-4   8.9- 3.1  <0.1   0.0          20  
 29  21. Kansas                 B12   6-2   9-3   8.2- 3.8  <0.1   0.0          22  
 27  22. UCLA                   P12   6-2   8-4   8.6- 3.4  <0.1   0.0          23  
 19  23. James Madison*         SUNe  8-0  11-1  10.8- 1.2  <0.1* -0.1          --  
 14  24. Utah                   P12   6-2   8-4   8.1- 3.9  <0.1  -0.4          24  
 28  25. Liberty                CUSA  8-0  13-0  12.5- 0.5   0.0   0.0          18  
 31  26. Oklahoma St            B12   6-2   9-3   8.2- 3.8   0.0   0.0          25  
 15  28. Duke                   ACC   5-3   9-3   8.3- 3.7   0.0  -0.4  

After here almost every team has 2 losses. Obviously USC's 1-point win over Cal didn't put them back in the race, nor did UCLA's win over Colorado. And Utah completes the trio of hopeless Pac-12 teams as their loss to Oregon was just too wide.

Both Kansas and Oklahoma State recovered from "absolute zero" to show a tiny bit of life. The Jayhawks of course beat Oklahoma, while the Cowboys won their fourth straight to become bowl-eligible.

Liberty is about 50/50 to go 13-0 but that's not enough to get them any Playoff chance. It should get them at about #18 in the final Committee ranking, and if Air Force falters, they could be playing on New Year's Day.

That team could have been James Madison if the Dukes were eligible. Speaking of Duke, the Blue Devils dropped their 3rd game which predictable zeroes out their Playoff odds.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     |  Bowl    
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)| %Odds  %Chg
 72  67. Colorado               P12   4-4   4-8   5.2- 6.8   37.2  +5.6  

Buffaloes update: Colorado actually increased their Bowl odds losing to UCLA. The Buffs now need two wins out of Oregon State, Arizona, Washington State, and Utah. With three of those teams looking bad last week, it's no wonder their odds crept up to 37%. They still won't be favored in any of them, but should get one. They really need to win one of their next two, both at home.

Big Ten East tiebreaker: What happens with 3-way tie with Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State?

I keep seeing various articles on this topic that don't quite spell it out completely so here goes.

You may have noticed that the Big Ten East has three of the best teams in the nation. According to our All-Division Strength power rating 3 of the top 4 teams in college football are from the Big Ten East:

  #  Team                        rec   Rating Offense[rnk]  Defense[rnk]
  1. Michigan                    8-0   79.47   65.20 [  9]  -14.27 [  2]
  2. Oregon                      6-1   78.50   67.59 [  4]  -10.91 [  9]
  3. Penn State                  6-1   78.45   66.33 [  8]  -12.12 [  6]
  4. Ohio State                  7-0   77.94   58.36 [ 20]  -19.58 [  1]

In the ESPN FPI, the top three, period are from the Big Ten East. 

So the order changes but it's possible that all three deserve to be in the Playoff. Odds are, though, that only one makes it. Maybe two (since it happened last year) but only one for sure.

Ohio State just beat Penn State but the Buckeyes were playing at home. The have to travel to Ann Arbor to play Michigan, which gives the Wolverines the advantage. But Michigan has to play at Penn State, meaning it's very possible that all three end up at 8-1 in the Big Ten, and only one team can make the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. And that team will have a virtual ticket to the Playoff.

The Big Ten tiebreaker rules are, like all college football conference tiebreaker rules, written to be as incomprehensible as possible. Instead of just saying "what if three teams are tied and they all beat each other?" so you know where to start, they make you wade through several pointless steps that almost never apply, written so poorly that you might think they do apply. For example:

(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.

Just ignore all that crap. The relevant rule in a 3-way, A beats B beats C beats A situation, is this one:

5. The records of the three (or more) teams will be compared based on the best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.

Meaning the combined record of the teams that they beat in the West division.

Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State play mostly the same Big Ten teams. Of their nine games, six are games against the other teams in the East. So take away those six games—which includes games vs. each other—and you have three Big Ten games left, from teams in the West. Here they are (NOT in order that they play):

• Ohio State: Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin
• Michigan: Purdue, Minnesota, Nebraska
• Penn State: Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern

I've color-coded it in case you missed the obvious: Ohio State and Michigan have the same damn Big Ten schedule except a) they play each other, and b) Ohio State plays Wisconsin while Michigan plays Nebraska.

Right away, which team does it seem has the advantage in a 3-way tie, Michigan or Ohio State? Clearly the Buckeyes, since Wisconsin is likely to finish well ahead of Nebraska.

The only question becomes: Can Penn State's opponents add up to more than Ohio State's? 

It looks good at a glance with Iowa in the mix for the Lions, but Illinois and Northwestern are piss-poor so Penn State might not even match Michigan's total. The current win aggregate for each team's West opponents is: Ohio State 6, Michigan 5, Penn State 5,  Here's how it looks projected into the future:

• Ohio State: Purdue(4) + Minnesota(4) + Wisconsin(7) = 15 wins
• Michigan: Purdue(4) + Minnesota(4) + Nebraska(4) = 12 wins
• Penn State: Illinois(3) + Iowa(7) + Northwestern(1) = 11 wins

With Penn State in last position, Ohio State is almost certainly the winner of this tiebreaker because there's very little chance that Nebraska finishes ahead of Wisconsin to put Michigan in front. Of course things can change but it looks like the Buckeyes have a big advantage in winning the 3-way tie.

Update post-week 10: New figures show Penn State with an advantage here, ahead of the Penn State-Michigan game:

• Ohio State: Purdue(3) + Minnesota(3) + Wisconsin(6) = 12 wins
• Michigan: Purdue(3) + Minnesota(3) + Nebraska(3) = 9 wins
• Penn State: Illinois(4) + Iowa(7) + Northwestern(3) = 14 wins

Now Penn State is in the driver's seat of a 3-way tie, should they beat the Wolverines. All of Ohio State's teams were upset, as were all of Michigan's (since they share two teams), and Illinois and Northwestern really came through for the Nitanny Lions.

If Michigan has to have one loss, who should it be to?

Here's an interesting question: given the above, would it be better for Michigan to lose to Ohio State and beat Penn State? If they had to lose to one or the other, I'd say yes. Because if Ohio State gets in at 12-1 (due to 3-way tie), there might not be a 2nd Big Ten team chosen, and if there is one they would go with Penn State, who in that scenario beats Michigan head-to-head.

But if the Wolverines beat Penn State, and lose to a 13-0 Ohio State, it's much more likely that a 2nd Big Ten team is chosen and that would clearly be the Wolverines. Assuming their game vs. Ohio State was pretty close, it gives them better odds than being chosen in the 3-way tie scenario.

This is clearly a totally hypothetical situation—Michigan is going to try to beat everyone, and regardless of the Playoff ramifications they'd probably choose to beat the Buckeyes anyway over Penn State—but for Penn State, who to root for between Michigan and Ohio State is a real question I'll cover in a bit.

What if tiebreaker rule #5 is a tie?

...And they all end up with, say, 13 wins from their West opponents?

Then they go through the top West teams—not necessarily one by one, but by groups of teams with the most wins—and compare based on that, and this time the foes don't have to be common foes. If Wisconsin has the most wins, then Ohio State gets the nod. If Iowa finished on top, Penn State is chosen.

Michigan looks SOL here because they don't play one of the standout teams, but for Michigan end up tied with Ohio State, Nebraska would have a record equal to Wisconsin's, and they'd still be alive. That seems doubtful, which leaves Ohio State and Penn State as the only realistic tie scenario under rule #5. If that happens we go to the 2-team tiebreaker where head-to-head chooses Ohio State. Again the Buckeyes have the advantage.

Who should Penn State root for assuming they beat Michigan?

Obviously both Michigan and Ohio State are still thinking 13-0. Only Penn State is rooting for a 3-way tie. But would a 13-0 Ohio State be better for them? Assuming Penn State beats Michigan, maybe Ohio State beating Michigan—and knocking the Wolverines from Playoff contention—is better for the Lions. An 11-1 finish with the loss to Ohio State and a win over Michigan might put the Lions in a position like Ohio State was in last year. The Buckeyes needed a lot of help to finish #4 and so would the Nittany Lions in the same scenario this year. But that might work out better than the 3-way tie which just doesn't look good right now for Penn State. (Update: though now, after a few weeks, it does)

Of course we'll know a lot more about the West's teams by the time Michigan and Ohio State play, and Penn State fans who have done their homework will know whether to root for Michigan to create the 3-way tie, or for Ohio State to run the table and make Penn State's solitary loss look better. If they're way behind in the 3-way tie scenario—their West opponents have faltered too much—they should root for Ohio State to beat Michigan. And obviously they have to beat Michigan themselves, too.

For their part both Ohio State and Michigan still control their own destiny, which is why all the 3-way tie articles appear on Penn State sites or articles about how Penn State might still win the Big Ten. But if Penn State beats Michigan at home, look for Wolverine pages to take a sudden interest in the tiebreaker rules. Ohio State fans can wait the longest before wading through the legalese.

Hopefully it doesn't get to step 8, winner-by-lottery. Most conferences have "placement in College Football Playoff Committee rankings" as the last resort, but not the Big Ten.

2023 week 8 post-mortem: Underperformance, not upsets, cause big shakeup

We're almost in the home stretch and there are still so many teams that can make the "final four" that even a week where none of the top teams were upset caused a huge shakeup, with three of the top four replaced in our Playoff Projections.

But team after team underperformed, some in a big way, and as they fell the teams that overperformed—or even came close to meeting expectations—saw their stock rise.

First off, last week's #1 Oklahoma had a very poor effort at home in edging Central Florida 31-29, a failed UFC 2-point try away from overtime and possible loss. It knocked the Sooner defense out of the top ten where it had proudly been all season, and toppled Oklahoma to the #2 spot, still with 68.5% Playoff Odds but down over 10% from last week's near-80% number. Basically, the Sooners flew too close to the sky to count their chickens just yet; they still have to beat Texas again. And speaking of Texas, the Longhorns survived a comeback attempt by Houston that stalled due to a poor call, winning just 31-24. But their Playoff Odds edged upward a bit due to Oklahoma's downgrade.

The big game of the week was Ohio State's 20-12 home win over Penn State, which puts the Buckeyes back in the driver's seat for the Big Ten East title. Now we're back to the scenario where three teams go 8-1 in conference and need to use tiebreaker #5—record of Big10 West foes—to decide the winner, and Ohio State is looking great there if they need it.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | Bowl
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg |%Odds  %Chg
  6   1. Ohio State             B10e  7-0  12-1  12.1- 0.9  70.3 +32.9  100.0   0.0
  1   2. Oklahoma               B12   7-0  13-0  12.1- 0.9  68.5 -11.1  100.0   0.0
  5   3. Florida St             ACC   7-0  13-0  12.3- 0.7  67.3 +27.3  100.0   0.0
  7   4. Michigan               B10e  8-0  11-1  10.9- 1.1  53.7 +17.5  100.0   0.0
  4   5. Oregon                 P12   6-1  12-1  11.0- 2.0  34.7  -6.0  100.0  +0.1
  2   6. Washington             P12   7-0  12-1  11.1- 1.9  33.9 -21.8  100.0   0.0
  8   7. Texas                  B12   6-1  11-2  10.4- 2.6  19.2  +2.2  100.0  +0.1
  3   8. Penn State             B10e  6-1  11-1  10.4- 1.6  15.4 -37.6  100.0   0.0

The Buckeyes could just beat Michigan and settle the matter but the Wolverines are looking like the nation's best team these days after another killer performance, beating rival Michigan State 49-0 on the road. For comparison, Washington beat the Spartans in East Lansing 41-7, while Iowa won at home 26-16 and Rutgers won 27-24. Michigan State is a very consistent yardstick. Anyway the point is Michigan might even beat Penn State on the road, and that's why the Nittany Lions fall so far, to #8 with just 15% Playoff Odds. Without Michigan's recent surge they might have lost just half their Playoff Odds, not 70%.

Speaking of Washington, the Huskies had a "bad win" as well, topping 1-6 Arizona State just 15-7. Remember how people are always saying parity kills the Pac-12? This is what they're talking about. It was so bad that Washington falls from #2 to #6, as their odds of beating USC, Utah, and Oregon State, as well as rival Washington State, then beating Oregon in the inevitable(?) neutral-field rematch, declined a lot. Hell, even Stanford next week is in play if they have the turnovers they did against the Sun Devils. It was so bad that they fell behind the Ducks, whom they already beat once. Oregon slipped out of the top four themselves as they were unimpressive vs. Washington State but not nearly as bad as the Huskies.

All of that left Florida State to move firmly into the top four, up a powerful 27% to top 2/3 odds to make the Playoff. With Duke out of the way FSU has few roadblocks left in the marginal ACC, though they still face rivals Miami and Florida. They're expected to win those and beat Duke again in the ACC title game.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | Bowl
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg |%Odds  %Chg
  9   9. Georgia                SECe  7-0  11-2  10.8- 2.2  11.8  +2.5  100.0   0.0
 11  10. Alabama                SECw  7-1  12-1  10.6- 2.4  11.3  +4.6  100.0   0.0
 12  11. Mississippi            SECw  6-1  10-2  10.0- 2.0   7.0  +1.1  100.0  +0.1
 14  12. Oregon St              P12   6-1   9-3   9.0- 3.0   3.3  +2.0  100.0   0.0
 19  13. LSU                    SECw  6-2   9-3   9.2- 2.8   1.9  +1.6  100.0  +0.1
 22  14. Utah                   P12   6-1   8-4   8.5- 3.5   0.4  +0.3  100.0  +1.6

The top eight is still without an SEC team, and that includes AP #1 Georgia who, after 7 games, is still not in the top ten in our power rating. Their Playoff Odds moved up in a bye week due to all the weakness shown in the teams above them, but ultimately they might have to go 13-0 to make the Playoff this year and it's looking more and more questionable. They face Tennessee on the road and the main problem is a surging Alabama, who seems to have found some answers lately and beat the Vols 34-20 after falling behind early. The Bulldogs also play Mississippi, whose Playoff hopes probably lie on beating Georgia, who wins the SEC, which gets two teams? It's tough for the Rebels and that's why they are only at 7%, up 1.1%. 2-loss LSU actually gained more ground last week with a 62-0 win over Army putting them in the top ten in Strength. If LSU beats Alabama there could be a 3-way tie in the SEC West similar to the Big Ten East, with the same tiebreaker (SEC record of East opponents) making the decision. I haven't done the math on that one yet to know who wins that, but it's a source of hope for both LSU and Ole Miss and the latter should root for LSU vs. Alabama since it's not likely the Tide lose twice more in their last 3 conference games.

The Pac-12 outside of Oregon and Washington still has a couple of 1-loss teams alive. Oregon State was idle but Washington's struggles helped them up 2% this week; they face the Huskies at home in their penultimate game, just before rival week at Oregon. Before that they have Arizona, Colorado, and Stanford, which is about as manageable as you get in the Pac-12. They already beat Utah, who just beat USC despite having no offense (none was needed vs. the Trojan defense) without Cam Rising is officially a permanent situation. The Utes have almost the exact schedule remaining as the Beavers but that head-to-head win puts Oregon State in front, leaving Utah with just 0.4% odds.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | Bowl
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg |%Odds  %Chg
 13  15. Duke                   ACC   5-2  10-3   9.4- 3.6   0.4  -5.0   99.9   0.0
 15  16. Air Force              MTN   7-0  13-0  11.9- 1.1   0.2  -1.0  100.0   0.0
 24  17. Missouri               SECe  7-1   8-4   9.0- 3.0   0.2  +0.1  100.0   0.0
 18  18. Notre Dame             IND   6-2  10-2   9.5- 2.5   0.2  -0.3  100.0   0.0
 21  19. James Madison*         SUNe  7-0  12-0  11.0- 1.0   0.1*  0.0  100.0*  0.0
 28  20. Kansas St              B12   5-2   9-3   9.0- 3.0   0.1  +0.1   99.9  +1.1

Duke's 2nd loss naturally killed most of their Playoff hopes but it's interesting that they're in 2nd place among 2-loss teams, and ahead of Notre Dame who beat them. The hope for Duke lies in an ACC title rematch with Florida State, and that's the scenario that gives them 0.4% odds but even that outcome is unlikely to bear fruit. Notre Dame has no title game to boost a 10-2 finish, and their remaining games don't gain them very much; their marquee wins are Duke and USC and both lost last week. Air Force's fall from 1.2% to 0.2% is a small surprise but they beat Navy only 17-6, and their SOS is looking to remain in the bottom 10 which isn't a good look even at 13-0. 

Missouri stayed alive in the Playoff race with a 34-12 win over South Carolina, and it makes sense as the Tigers have just one loss and none in their own division, so they control their destiny to the SEC title game and therefore the Playoff. Will it happen? If they can get past Georgia, Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas, and then probably Alabama, they're in. Their odds of doing that go up from 0.1% to 0.2% this week. They do hold a great win over Kansas State, who comes back from near-dead to positive (though tiny) odds. The Wildcats have yet to play Texas and don't face Oklahoma, but they just beat TCU 41-3 and at their best they can probably beat anyone.

And James Madison appears at #19, at 7-0 in an improved Sun Belt and projected for 12-0 (or 11-1 more likely). The transitioning Dukes aren't eligible for post-season play so their 0.1% odds—and their 100% bowl eligibility—is all for naught. That leaves only 19 eligible teams that have measurable odds to get to the Playoff.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | Bowl
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg |%Odds  %Chg
 17  21. Southern Cal           P12   6-2   8-4   7.9- 4.1  <0.1  -0.7  100.0   0.0
 10  22. North Carolina         ACC   6-1   9-3   9.3- 2.7  <0.1  -7.6  100.0   0.0
 23  23. Louisville             ACC   6-1   9-3   9.2- 2.8  <0.1  -0.1  100.0   0.0
 16  24. Tennessee              SECe  5-2  10-2   8.8- 3.2  <0.1  -0.9   99.9   0.0
 26  25. Miami FL               ACC   5-2   9-3   7.9- 4.1  <0.1   0.0   99.5  +1.9
 34  26. Wisconsin              B10w  5-2   9-3   8.2- 3.8  <0.1   0.0   99.7  +1.5

The end of the top 25, or top 26 since James Madison doesn't count. USC's fall from grace continues as they drop into the "uber-long-shot" category with their 2nd loss. Stunningly, North Carolina does the same with only their first loss, down about 7.6% to <0.1% in other words, less than 1 in 1000 shot. Losing to Virginia, a 2-5 team, is going to be hard to recover from and even before that our power rating didn't give the Tar Heels much chance to win the ACC. But with only 1 loss UNC and Louisville are the only teams with a real chance to dig themselves out of the muck and get back to a measurable chance again. It just doesn't look likely for either team. For the 5-2 power conference teams here, including Tennessee, Miami, and Wisconsin, there's a meager hope of being the first 2-loss team in the Playoff, and this doesn't look like the year for that to happen.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | Bowl
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg |%Odds  %Chg
 29  27. UCLA                   P12   5-2   9-3   8.5- 3.5  <0.1   0.0   99.9  +1.0
 27  28. Liberty                CUSA  7-0  13-0  12.1- 0.9  <0.1   0.0  100.0   0.0
 31  29. Kansas                 B12   5-2   7-5   7.1- 4.9  <0.1   0.0   90.7  +4.0
 32  30. Fresno St              MTN   6-1  11-2   9.9- 3.1  <0.1   0.0  100.0   0.0
 56  31. Oklahoma St            B12   5-2   8-4   7.5- 4.5  <0.1   0.0   97.0 +26.5
 38  32. Troy                   SUNw  5-2  11-2   9.7- 3.3   0.0   0.0   99.9   0.0
 39  33. SMU                    AAC   5-2  11-2   9.9- 3.1   0.0   0.0   99.9   0.0
 43  34. Toledo                 MACw  7-1  12-1  10.8- 2.2   0.0   0.0  100.0   0.0
 33  35. Tulane                 AAC   6-1  11-2  10.1- 2.9   0.0   0.0  100.0  +0.1
 20  36. Iowa                   B10w  6-2  10-3   8.8- 4.2   0.0  -0.2  100.0   0.0

The teams here are generally 2-loss Power conference teams or 1-loss Group of Five teams. UCLA, Kansas, and even Oklahoma State (!) all register a blip on the radar but like I said above, this isn't shaping up to be a chaos year (yet) where a 2-loss team could finish #4. Note that Iowa doesn't even register at all after losing to Minnesota, even thought they're still the favorite to make the Big Ten title game (where they would be undoubtedly crushed). 

Fresno State might have a prayer at 6-1 to beat a 12-0 Air Force but the odds of that meaning anything are low. And a 12-1 Toledo doesn't interest our algorithm even once in 10,000 runs. Note too that 6-1 Tulane is no longer the AAC favorite; that's 5-2 SMU and neither of them even makes the top 25 at this point. By the time a winner is declared they will probably finish in the top 25, but right now we're sorting by Playoff Odds and neither team has any. Neither does Sun Belt favorite (in lieu of James Madison being eligible) Troy.

Liberty of the CUSA has a good shot of going 13-0 but that makes them the only eligible undefeated team without a clear path to any real consideration. Their SOS is the worst in the nation now—and will probably remain that way to the end of the season.

EXTREME Bowl Odds: Mississippi State up nearly 50%, Tulsa down over 50%

The jumps in bowl odds, up or down, actually get bigger as the season goes on. Sure, many teamsget locked into 100% odds by winning their sixth game, and their odds don't move at all. Neither do odds for teams at 0%, or near zero with little hope. But in between the extremes are teams whose fortunes whipsaw back and forth with each upset. Today's edition: Mississippi State and Tulsa.

The Bulldogs upset Arkansas in Little Rock, 7-3. Obviously this was not a case where our power rating was impressed with the result and forecast a better future for Mississippi State. No, this was an upset, and just getting the win under their belt—the Bulldogs' 4th win—boosted their odds an astounding 47.1%

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | Bowl
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg |%Odds  %Chg
 80  58. Mississippi St         SECw  4-3   6-6   6.2- 5.8   0.0   0.0   80.1 +47.1

After limping along at 33% last week the Bulldogs are sitting pretty at 80% thanks to the win. It was a high-leverage game for both teams, apparently as the loss set Arkansas back 45%:

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | Bowl
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg |%Odds  %Chg
 57  75. Arkansas               SECw  2-6   6-6   4.7- 7.3   0.0   0.0   20.4 -45.4

Last week's win expectation for Arkansas was 5.8, now it's down to 4.7 so the Razorbacks really needed the win, and only have a 1 in 5 chance of recovering—though that would mean winning out, and it's not bad to have a 20% chance to win out. Arkansas's remaining opponents are Florida (road) and Auburn, FIU, and Missouri all at home.

The team that really hit the skids this weekend is Tulsa, losing to Rice on Thursday 42-10, knocking their odds down over 50%:

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | Bowl
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg |%Odds  %Chg
 83 105. Tulsa                  AAC   3-4   5-7   4.5- 7.5   0.0   0.0   18.3 -50.8

Clearly it wasn't just the loss—though that was huge—but the margin that hurt the Golden Hurricane. Our power rating expected a 28-24 Tulsa win, and a 3-3 at the time they only needed to finish 50/50 to make a bowl game. Now they need to go 3-2 and their Strength is estimated to be quite a bit lower after the 32-point loss. Their win estimate went from 6.0 to 4.5. Needless to say, Rice's fortunes went the opposite direction, up 35.5% to 76.4%.

Ok, Colorado time as usual. What happened to the Buffs on their weekend off? Answer is, their odds went down and it's easy to see why.

 Ranking                             Curr | Projected     | Playoff    | Bowl
 LW  Rnk Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg |%Odds  %Chg
 69  72. Colorado               P12   4-3   4-8   5.1- 6.9   0.0   0.0   31.6  -7.6

Ouch, down 7.6% for not playing? Divide it out and they lost almost 20% of their bowl odds (7.6/39.2). When you look at their schedule you see that their remaining opponents who were active all outperformed last weekend. UCLA beat Stanford 42-7, Washington State held close to Oregon,  and Utah upset USC. Each team got just a bit tougher to beat (Oregon State and Arizona were idle).