SportsRatings: College Football

NFL Power Rating for week 13 (through 12/3)

Last week: once again the Patriots had a close call, but remain #1 of course, as the only undefeated team. But the Cowboys gained a couple of points on the Pats, though it's still quite a gulf between, as New England has beaten the #2 and #3 teams this season.

rnk Team                         rec     overall     Pts[rank]   W/L[rank]
1.  New England Patriots        12-0    40.56 [ 1]  22.89 [ 1]  17.66 [ 1]
2.  Dallas Cowboys              11-1    22.71 [ 2]  14.11 [ 2]   8.60 [ 2]
3.  Indianapolis Colts          10-2    16.33 [ 3]  11.62 [ 3]   4.70 [ 3]
4.  Green Bay Packers           10-2    14.57 [ 4]  10.19 [ 4]   4.38 [ 4]
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers          9-3     9.84 [ 5]   8.24 [ 5]   1.60 [ 9]
6.  San Diego Chargers           7-5     8.40 [ 6]   6.75 [ 6]   1.64 [ 8]
7.  Minnesota Vikings            6-6     6.60 [ 7]   5.50 [ 7]   1.09 [12]
8.  Philadelphia Eagles          5-7     5.52 [ 8]   4.80 [ 8]   0.71 [16]
9.  Jacksonville Jaguars         8-4     5.27 [ 9]   3.35 [ 9]   1.91 [ 5]
10. New York Giants              8-4     4.32 [10]   2.45 [10]   1.86 [ 6]
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         8-4     3.85 [11]   2.17 [11]   1.67 [ 7]
12. Seattle Seahawks             8-4     3.21 [12]   1.88 [12]   1.33 [10]
13. Washington Redskins          5-7     1.60 [13]   0.93 [13]   0.66 [18]
14. Cleveland Browns             7-5     0.65 [14]  -0.29 [14]   0.95 [15]
15. Chicago Bears                5-7     0.57 [15]  -0.39 [15]   0.97 [14]
16. Cincinnati Bengals           4-8    -0.46 [16]  -0.86 [16]   0.39 [25]
17. Detroit Lions                6-6    -1.32 [17]  -2.31 [17]   0.99 [13]
18. Tennessee Titans             7-5    -1.45 [18]  -2.58 [19]   1.13 [11]
19. New York Jets                4-8    -1.94 [19]  -2.31 [18]   0.36 [27]
20. Kansas City Chiefs           4-8    -2.44 [20]  -2.92 [20]   0.48 [22]
21. Arizona Cardinals            6-6    -2.74 [21]  -3.33 [21]   0.59 [19]
22. Houston Texans               5-7    -3.56 [22]  -4.04 [22]   0.48 [23]
23. New Orleans Saints           5-7    -3.62 [23]  -4.18 [24]   0.56 [20]
24. Oakland Raiders              4-8    -3.70 [24]  -4.07 [23]   0.37 [26]
25. Buffalo Bills                5-7    -4.74 [25]  -5.29 [25]   0.55 [21]
26. Denver Broncos               5-7    -4.99 [26]  -5.70 [27]   0.71 [17]
27. Baltimore Ravens             4-8    -5.13 [27]  -5.46 [26]   0.32 [28]
28. Carolina Panthers            5-7    -7.40 [28]  -7.84 [29]   0.44 [24]
29. Atlanta Falcons              3-9   -10.43 [29] -10.65 [30]   0.21 [29]
30. St. Louis Rams               3-9   -11.50 [30] -11.69 [31]   0.19 [30]
31. San Francisco 49ers          3-9   -13.59 [31] -13.78 [32]   0.18 [31]
32. Miami Dolphins               0-12  -20.15 [32]  -7.17 [28] -12.97 [32]

The overall order follows the Points component order almost all the way down the line, with the major exception of Miami, who still ranks better than their record.

rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  New England Patriots        12-0    22.89  39.41  16.51
2.  Dallas Cowboys              11-1    14.11  33.95  19.84
3.  Indianapolis Colts          10-2    11.62  28.13  16.50
4.  Green Bay Packers           10-2    10.19  27.67  17.48
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers          9-3     8.24  21.41  13.17
6.  San Diego Chargers           7-5     6.75  25.21  18.45
7.  Minnesota Vikings            6-6     5.50  23.72  18.22
8.  Philadelphia Eagles          5-7     4.80  22.73  17.93
9.  Jacksonville Jaguars         8-4     3.35  22.88  19.52
10. New York Giants              8-4     2.45  22.94  20.48
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         8-4     2.17  18.88  16.70
12. Seattle Seahawks             8-4     1.88  20.54  18.66
13. Washington Redskins          5-7     0.93  19.65  18.72
14. Cleveland Browns             7-5    -0.29  27.63  27.92
15. Chicago Bears                5-7    -0.39  20.11  20.51
16. Cincinnati Bengals           4-8    -0.86  25.95  26.81
17. Detroit Lions                6-6    -2.31  23.06  25.37
18. New York Jets                4-8    -2.31  19.99  22.31
19. Tennessee Titans             7-5    -2.58  17.84  20.42
20. Kansas City Chiefs           4-8    -2.92  14.46  17.39
21. Arizona Cardinals            6-6    -3.33  22.05  25.39
22. Houston Texans               5-7    -4.04  21.52  25.57
23. Oakland Raiders              4-8    -4.07  18.33  22.40
24. New Orleans Saints           5-7    -4.18  22.06  26.25
25. Buffalo Bills                5-7    -5.29  15.14  20.43
26. Baltimore Ravens             4-8    -5.46  15.00  20.46
27. Denver Broncos               5-7    -5.70  21.49  27.20
28. Miami Dolphins               0-12   -7.17  16.91  24.09
29. Carolina Panthers            5-7    -7.84  15.36  23.20
30. Atlanta Falcons              3-9   -10.65  13.71  24.36
31. St. Louis Rams               3-9   -11.69  14.89  26.58
32. San Francisco 49ers          3-9   -13.78  12.24  26.02

This week the Patriots host Pittsburgh's #1 defense, and the Dolphins travel to Buffalo. Could this be the week both lose the "0" in their record?

Another Close Call: New England 27, Baltimore 24

Now, Philadelphia is a good team—much better than their record. So I can understand the Patriots having trouble against them last week. Everyone has an off night, and a close call.

But the Ravens? They had no right to be in this game at all, and yet they almost pulled it off. Maybe it was the Sean Taylor thing, and the team was really hyped. Maybe the Pats are getting sloppy, or people are putting together clues about how to play them. Based on their performance the last two weeks their chance of going undefeated has to be declining. But course, with each win, it's also rising, especially if they're getting bad games "out of their system" whatever that means.

Next week is the crucial 12th week, the three-quarters mark where undefeated teams have to be getting complacent, tired of being so vigiliant, but not yet in the "home stretch" toward completing the perfect year, and they face Pittsburgh, a much tougher opponent than tonight's.

It will be interesting to see how the Pats do in the power rating. They're certain to lose quite a few points. They'll remain number one, but they'll lose points.

NFL Power Rating - week 12 (thru 11/26/2007)

The Patriots looked human last weekend, but they remain a solid #1. The Eagles, after all, were the 8th best team in the league despite their 5-5 record. This week they move up a spot after almost pulling off the upset.

rnk Team                         rec     overall     Pts[rank]   W/L[rank]
1.  New England Patriots         11-0    40.77 [ 1]  25.19 [ 1]  15.58 [ 1]
2.  Dallas Cowboys               10-1    20.43 [ 2]  13.83 [ 2]   6.59 [ 2]
3.  Green Bay Packers            10-1    17.02 [ 3]  11.02 [ 4]   5.99 [ 3]
4.  Indianapolis Colts            9-2    16.52 [ 4]  12.47 [ 3]   4.05 [ 4]
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers           8-3     8.73 [ 5]   7.33 [ 5]   1.39 [ 9]
6.  San Diego Chargers            6-5     7.96 [ 6]   6.46 [ 6]   1.49 [ 7]
7.  Philadelphia Eagles           5-6     7.13 [ 7]   6.25 [ 7]   0.88 [17]
8.  Jacksonville Jaguars          8-3     5.16 [ 8]   2.98 [ 9]   2.18 [ 5]
9.  Minnesota Vikings             5-6     4.99 [ 9]   4.03 [ 8]   0.95 [15]
10. New York Giants               7-4     4.40 [10]   2.77 [10]   1.63 [ 6]
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers          7-4     3.66 [11]   2.18 [12]   1.48 [ 8]
12. Washington Redskins           5-6     3.23 [12]   2.38 [11]   0.85 [18]
13. Seattle Seahawks              7-4     1.71 [13]   0.57 [13]   1.14 [12]
14. Chicago Bears                 5-6     1.46 [14]   0.18 [15]   1.28 [10]
15. Detroit Lions                 6-5     1.44 [15]   0.23 [14]   1.21 [11]
16. Cleveland Browns              7-4     1.05 [16]  -0.07 [16]   1.13 [13]
17. Cincinnati Bengals            4-7    -0.91 [17]  -1.32 [17]   0.41 [23]
18. Kansas City Chiefs            4-7    -1.78 [18]  -2.31 [18]   0.52 [21]
19. Tennessee Titans              6-5    -1.99 [19]  -3.04 [19]   1.04 [14]
20. Houston Texans                5-6    -2.75 [20]  -3.31 [20]   0.56 [20]
21. Denver Broncos                5-6    -3.48 [21]  -4.38 [22]   0.89 [16]
22. New York Jets                 3-8    -3.87 [22]  -4.16 [21]   0.29 [28]
23. New Orleans Saints            5-6    -4.15 [23]  -4.73 [25]   0.57 [19]
24. Arizona Cardinals             5-6    -4.15 [24]  -4.65 [24]   0.49 [22]
25. Oakland Raiders               3-8    -4.21 [25]  -4.50 [23]   0.29 [27]
26. Buffalo Bills                 4-7    -5.47 [26]  -5.88 [27]   0.40 [24]
27. Baltimore Ravens              4-7    -8.04 [27]  -8.37 [28]   0.33 [26]
28. Carolina Panthers             4-7    -8.51 [28]  -8.89 [29]   0.37 [25]
29. Atlanta Falcons               3-8    -9.50 [29]  -9.77 [30]   0.27 [29]
30. St. Louis Rams                2-9   -13.52 [30] -13.65 [31]   0.13 [31]
31. San Francisco 49ers           3-8   -13.72 [31] -13.91 [32]   0.19 [30]
32. Miami Dolphins                0-11  -16.60 [32]  -4.89 [26] -11.71 [32]

Alas, the poor Dolphins lost again, their sixth 3-point loss of the year. Someone who keeps records on those sort of things should see if that's a first or not. Their next three games are all potential wins for Miami, who ranks 26th on the points-only ratings, where winning and losing does not matter.

rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  New England Patriots         11-0    25.19  40.42  15.23
2.  Dallas Cowboys               10-1    13.83  33.38  19.55
3.  Indianapolis Colts            9-2    12.47  28.21  15.74
4.  Green Bay Packers            10-1    11.02  27.69  16.66
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers           8-3     7.33  21.38  14.04
6.  San Diego Chargers            6-5     6.46  25.06  18.59
7.  Philadelphia Eagles           5-6     6.25  22.76  16.51
8.  Minnesota Vikings             5-6     4.03  22.79  18.76
9.  Jacksonville Jaguars          8-3     2.98  22.29  19.31
10. New York Giants               7-4     2.77  23.52  20.75
11. Washington Redskins           5-6     2.38  20.40  18.02
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers          7-4     2.18  18.52  16.33
13. Seattle Seahawks              7-4     0.57  18.99  18.42
14. Detroit Lions                 6-5     0.23  23.99  23.76
15. Chicago Bears                 5-6     0.18  20.79  20.60
16. Cleveland Browns              7-4    -0.07  28.30  28.38
17. Cincinnati Bengals            4-7    -1.32  26.11  27.44
18. Kansas City Chiefs            4-7    -2.31  14.71  17.02
19. Tennessee Titans              6-5    -3.04  17.45  20.49
20. Houston Texans                5-6    -3.31  21.67  24.99
21. New York Jets                 3-8    -4.16  18.41  22.57
22. Denver Broncos                5-6    -4.38  21.75  26.13
23. Oakland Raiders               3-8    -4.50  17.69  22.20
24. Arizona Cardinals             5-6    -4.65  22.04  26.69
25. New Orleans Saints            5-6    -4.73  21.59  26.33
26. Miami Dolphins                0-11   -4.89  17.39  22.29
27. Buffalo Bills                 4-7    -5.88  14.85  20.73
28. Baltimore Ravens              4-7    -8.37  13.10  21.48
29. Carolina Panthers             4-7    -8.89  14.31  23.21
30. Atlanta Falcons               3-8    -9.77  13.91  23.69
31. St. Louis Rams                2-9   -13.65  13.73  27.39
32. San Francisco 49ers           3-8   -13.91  11.56  25.48

While Pittsburgh's 3-0 win didn't help their overall rating any, it boosted their scoring defense from #2 to #1. This is the first time in weeks that anyone other than New England has held a #1 ranking in anything, though it was bad weather more than anything that led to the shutout. The top five defensive teams:

rnk Team                        record  defense (ave. pts. allowed)
1.  Pittsburgh Steelers           8-3    14.04
2.  New England Patriots         11-0    15.23
3.  Indianapolis Colts            9-2    15.74
4.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers          7-4    16.33
5.  Philadelphia Eagles           5-6    16.51

The Eagles move up to 5th for their performance against New England, which wasn't too surprising considering they were 6th going in. Their offense isn't bad either at 11th; they should be winning more games. They could easily finish 4-1, and make the playoffs at 9-7.

NFL Power Rating thru week 11 (11/19)

Hardly any change this week, though Tennessee takes a dive from #9 to #15 after their Monday night loss to Denver.

rnk Team                         rec     overall     Pts[rank]   W/L[rank]
1.  New England Patriots        10-0    41.40 [ 1]  27.21 [ 1]  14.18 [ 1]
2.  Dallas Cowboys               9-1    19.21 [ 2]  12.66 [ 3]   6.54 [ 2]
3.  Indianapolis Colts           8-2    16.89 [ 3]  13.11 [ 2]   3.78 [ 4]
4.  Green Bay Packers            9-1    15.89 [ 4]  10.58 [ 4]   5.30 [ 3]
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers          7-3     9.70 [ 5]   8.44 [ 5]   1.25 [11]
6.  San Diego Chargers           5-5     7.17 [ 6]   5.87 [ 6]   1.30 [ 9]
7.  New York Giants              7-3     6.86 [ 7]   4.57 [ 8]   2.29 [ 5]
8.  Philadelphia Eagles          5-5     5.63 [ 8]   4.62 [ 7]   1.01 [15]
9.  Washington Redskins          5-5     4.27 [ 9]   3.19 [ 9]   1.07 [13]
10. Jacksonville Jaguars         7-3     4.03 [10]   1.99 [10]   2.03 [ 6]
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         6-4     3.16 [11]   1.88 [11]   1.27 [10]
12. Seattle Seahawks             6-4     1.76 [12]   0.83 [13]   0.92 [16]
13. Minnesota Vikings            4-6     1.63 [13]   0.94 [12]   0.68 [18]
14. Detroit Lions                6-4     1.24 [14]  -0.10 [14]   1.35 [ 8]
15. Tennessee Titans             6-4     0.97 [15]  -0.43 [16]   1.41 [ 7]
16. Chicago Bears                4-6     0.82 [16]  -0.20 [15]   1.02 [14]
17. Cleveland Browns             6-4    -0.03 [17]  -0.87 [17]   0.83 [17]
18. Houston Texans               5-5    -1.90 [18]  -2.57 [19]   0.67 [19]
19. Kansas City Chiefs           4-6    -1.99 [19]  -2.61 [20]   0.62 [20]
20. New York Jets                3-7    -2.02 [20]  -2.33 [18]   0.30 [27]
21. Arizona Cardinals            5-5    -2.32 [21]  -2.90 [21]   0.58 [21]
22. Cincinnati Bengals           3-7    -3.01 [22]  -3.29 [22]   0.27 [28]
23. Denver Broncos               5-5    -3.23 [23]  -4.32 [24]   1.08 [12]
24. Buffalo Bills                4-6    -3.84 [24]  -4.29 [23]   0.45 [24]
25. Oakland Raiders              2-8    -5.26 [25]  -5.44 [26]   0.18 [29]
26. Carolina Panthers            4-6    -5.98 [26]  -6.46 [27]   0.47 [23]
27. New Orleans Saints           4-6    -6.07 [27]  -6.56 [28]   0.48 [22]
28. Baltimore Ravens             4-6    -7.88 [28]  -8.21 [29]   0.33 [25]
29. Atlanta Falcons              3-7    -9.64 [29]  -9.95 [30]   0.30 [26]
30. St. Louis Rams               2-8   -14.53 [30] -14.66 [31]   0.12 [30]
31. San Francisco 49ers          2-8   -15.28 [31] -15.41 [32]   0.12 [31]
32. Miami Dolphins               0-10  -16.22 [32]  -5.29 [25] -10.92 [32]

The Rams push ahead of the 49ers, whom they beat on Sunday. The 49ers only wins are against the Rams and Arizona in their first two games, and by point margins they are the new worst team in the league.

rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  New England Patriots        10-0    27.21  40.85  13.64
2.  Indianapolis Colts           8-2    13.11  28.24  15.12
3.  Dallas Cowboys               9-1    12.66  33.88  21.21
4.  Green Bay Packers            9-1    10.58  27.13  16.54
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers          7-3     8.44  23.55  15.10
6.  San Diego Chargers           5-5     5.87  24.55  18.68
7.  Philadelphia Eagles          5-5     4.62  21.48  16.86
8.  New York Giants              7-3     4.57  23.33  18.76
9.  Washington Redskins          5-5     3.19  20.70  17.51
10. Jacksonville Jaguars         7-3     1.99  20.87  18.87
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         6-4     1.88  18.42  16.53
12. Minnesota Vikings            4-6     0.94  20.61  19.66
13. Seattle Seahawks             6-4     0.83  18.70  17.86
14. Detroit Lions                6-4    -0.10  23.63  23.73
15. Chicago Bears                4-6    -0.20  19.87  20.07
16. Tennessee Titans             6-4    -0.43  19.27  19.70
17. Cleveland Browns             6-4    -0.87  28.45  29.32
18. New York Jets                3-7    -2.33  20.11  22.45
19. Houston Texans               5-5    -2.57  22.75  25.32
20. Kansas City Chiefs           4-6    -2.61  14.37  16.98
21. Arizona Cardinals            5-5    -2.90  21.95  24.86
22. Cincinnati Bengals           3-7    -3.29  25.60  28.90
23. Buffalo Bills                4-6    -4.29  14.41  18.70
24. Denver Broncos               5-5    -4.32  21.02  25.34
25. Miami Dolphins               0-10   -5.29  18.64  23.94
26. Oakland Raiders              2-8    -5.44  16.65  22.10
27. Carolina Panthers            4-6    -6.46  15.79  22.25
28. New Orleans Saints           4-6    -6.56  21.00  27.56
29. Baltimore Ravens             4-6    -8.21  12.43  20.64
30. Atlanta Falcons              3-7    -9.95  13.58  23.53
31. St. Louis Rams               2-8   -14.66  12.89  27.55
32. San Francisco 49ers          2-8   -15.41  10.10  25.51

The Dolphins moved up another spot to 25th, while going 0-10. While this coming Sunday (at Pittsburgh) doesn't look too promising for Miami, they have a three game stretch (NY Jets at home, at Buffalo, Baltimore at home) during which they should definitely get their first win—and probably their 6th and 7th 3-point losses.

NFL Power Rating - week 10 (Nov. 11 games)

Indianapolis falls to #3. Should the Colts remain #2 because they played the Pats closer than Dallas did? Or should their second loss drop them because overall record is more important than a single game? This is the big debate, there being nothing to debate about #1 as the Pats are in front by a wide margin no matter how you look at it. Here, the Colts are still #2 by pure points strength, but their 7-2 mark gives the Cowboys a very slight edge overall.

rnk Team                         rec     overall     Pts[rank]   W/L[rank]
1.  New England Patriots        (9-0)   38.39 [ 1]  25.73 [ 1]  12.65 [ 1]
2.  Dallas Cowboys              (8-1)   18.56 [ 2]  13.14 [ 3]   5.41 [ 2]
3.  Indianapolis Colts          (7-2)   17.79 [ 3]  14.45 [ 2]   3.33 [ 4]
4.  Green Bay Packers           (8-1)   15.52 [ 4]  10.65 [ 4]   4.86 [ 3]
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers         (7-2)   11.78 [ 5]   9.90 [ 5]   1.87 [ 5]
6.  San Diego Chargers          (5-4)    8.03 [ 6]   6.60 [ 6]   1.43 [10]
7.  New York Giants             (6-3)    6.13 [ 7]   4.34 [ 8]   1.79 [ 6]
8.  Philadelphia Eagles         (4-5)    5.29 [ 8]   4.37 [ 7]   0.92 [14]
9.  Tennessee Titans            (6-3)    3.26 [ 9]   1.56 [10]   1.69 [ 8]
10. Washington Redskins         (5-4)    3.23 [10]   2.00 [ 9]   1.22 [11]
11. Jacksonville Jaguars        (6-3)    2.95 [11]   1.26 [11]   1.69 [ 7]
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        (5-4)    1.75 [12]   0.64 [13]   1.11 [13]
13. Minnesota Vikings           (3-6)    1.74 [13]   1.14 [12]   0.60 [20]
14. Chicago Bears               (4-5)    1.42 [14]   0.24 [15]   1.17 [12]
15. Seattle Seahawks            (5-4)    1.28 [15]   0.56 [14]   0.72 [17]
16. Detroit Lions               (6-3)    1.23 [16]  -0.34 [16]   1.57 [ 9]
17. Cleveland Browns            (5-4)    0.37 [17]  -0.36 [17]   0.73 [16]
18. Cincinnati Bengals          (3-6)   -2.22 [18]  -2.55 [18]   0.32 [27]
19. Buffalo Bills               (4-5)   -2.56 [19]  -3.01 [19]   0.44 [24]
20. Houston Texans              (4-5)   -2.58 [20]  -3.13 [20]   0.55 [21]
21. Arizona Cardinals           (4-5)   -3.39 [21]  -3.99 [22]   0.60 [19]
22. Kansas City Chiefs          (4-5)   -3.54 [22]  -4.23 [23]   0.68 [18]
23. New York Jets               (2-7)   -3.60 [23]  -3.76 [21]   0.16 [30]
24. New Orleans Saints          (4-5)   -4.82 [24]  -5.31 [24]   0.48 [23]
25. Denver Broncos              (4-5)   -5.07 [25]  -5.96 [27]   0.88 [15]
26. Oakland Raiders             (2-7)   -5.36 [26]  -5.56 [25]   0.20 [28]
27. Carolina Panthers           (4-5)   -5.84 [27]  -6.36 [28]   0.51 [22]
28. Atlanta Falcons             (3-6)   -7.83 [28]  -8.18 [29]   0.34 [26]
29. Baltimore Ravens            (4-5)   -7.96 [29]  -8.35 [30]   0.39 [25]
30. San Francisco 49ers         (2-7)  -14.55 [30] -14.72 [31]   0.16 [29]
31. St. Louis Rams              (1-8)  -15.01 [31] -15.09 [32]   0.07 [31]
32. Miami Dolphins              (0-9)  -16.40 [32]  -5.69 [26] -10.70 [32]

At the bottom of the list, the Rams push the Dolphins into the bottom slot by winning a game. Now only Miami is hampered by a negative Win/Loss quotient. The Dolphins would have to be at the bottom of any "luck chart" as well, losing 5 games by a field goal. They could just as easily be 5-4 and people would be talking about their "scrappiness" or something.

Scoring offense/defense: New England, Indianapolis, and Green Bay all have strong offenses and defenses. The other teams in the Score Margin top 5 aren't as balanced: Dallas' offense ranks #2 but their defense is 18th, while Pittsburgh's offense is 9th to go with their #3 defense. Two other unbalanced teams: Cleveland's O ranks #4, but their defense is last in the entire league; Tampa Bay's defense is #5, their offense, 23rd.

rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  New England Patriots        (9-0)   25.73  38.87  13.13
2.  Indianapolis Colts          (7-2)   14.45  29.54  15.09
3.  Dallas Cowboys              (8-1)   13.14  34.12  20.97
4.  Green Bay Packers           (8-1)   10.65  26.85  16.19
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers         (7-2)    9.90  25.15  15.25
6.  San Diego Chargers          (5-4)    6.60  25.22  18.62
7.  Philadelphia Eagles         (4-5)    4.37  22.17  17.79 
8.  New York Giants             (6-3)    4.34  24.18  19.84
9.  Washington Redskins         (5-4)    2.00  19.61  17.60
10. Tennessee Titans            (6-3)    1.56  19.63  18.06
11. Jacksonville Jaguars        (6-3)    1.26  20.38  19.12
12. Minnesota Vikings           (3-6)    1.14  19.77  18.62
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        (5-4)    0.64  17.13  16.48
14. Seattle Seahawks            (5-4)    0.56  17.12  16.56
15. Chicago Bears               (4-5)    0.24  18.64  18.40
16. Detroit Lions               (6-3)   -0.34  25.35  25.70
17. Cleveland Browns            (5-4)   -0.36  28.32  28.69
18. Cincinnati Bengals          (3-6)   -2.55  26.13  28.68
19. Buffalo Bills               (4-5)   -3.01  13.80  16.82
20. Houston Texans              (4-5)   -3.13  23.66  26.79
21. New York Jets               (2-7)   -3.76  20.01  23.78
22. Arizona Cardinals           (4-5)   -3.99  21.17  25.16
23. Kansas City Chiefs          (4-5)   -4.23  14.39  18.62
24. New Orleans Saints          (4-5)   -5.31  23.00  28.31
25. Oakland Raiders             (2-7)   -5.56  15.56  21.13
26. Miami Dolphins              (0-9)   -5.69  19.41  25.10
27. Denver Broncos              (4-5)   -5.96  19.36  25.32
28. Carolina Panthers           (4-5)   -6.36  15.19  21.55
29. Atlanta Falcons             (3-6)   -8.18  13.84  22.02
30. Baltimore Ravens            (4-5)   -8.35  11.75  20.11
31. San Francisco 49ers         (2-7)  -14.72  11.10  25.82
32. St. Louis Rams              (1-8)  -15.09  13.51  28.60

The Rams still rate the worst in a pure points power rating, though this week they're very close to #31 San Francisco. Their offense and defense have stepped it up and now both rate 30th in the league. The Dolphins actually move up a spot again this week to 26th, with the 20th best offense and 23rd best defense.

Congratulations to the Rams...

St. Louis Rams 37, New Orleans Saints 29...and on the road, to boot!

I wasn't going to update my projections, but this gives a data point that might change the prediction quite a bit. At the least, it will now be 2-14!

On the other hand, the Dolphins blew one of their better opportunities for a win, and lost at home to Buffalo...by three points, for the fifth time this season.

 

NFL: Can the Rams or Dolphins win a game?

One more NFL topic, and then I promise I'm back to collegiate matters. This one is the flipside of the last post. Will either of the two winless teams in the NFL win a game? Or will they join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers expansion year squad in the annals of futility?

Using the same method I used to analyze New England's chances of going undefeated, I first look at the worst team in the NFL, the St. Louis Rams. According to my NFL power rating, they are worst in the league, worst in offense, and close to the worst in defense.

Opponent         % Rams win
at New Orleans      6.25%
at San Francisco   21.87%
Seattle             9.37%
Atlanta            25.00%
at Cincinnati       3.13%
Green Bay           3.13%
Pittsburgh          6.25%
at Arizona         10.93%

Favored:   0-8 (0-16)
Projected: 1-7 (1-15)

Odds of winning 1+ games: 61%

The Rams do play some bad teams, such as the 49ers, Falcons, and Cardinals. They aren't favored in any of them—a 1 in 4 chance of beating Atlanta is their single best shot—but their cumulative odds of pulling an upset somewhere along the line are 61%, meaning they are projected to finish 1-15 for the year. Still, that leaves a disconcerting 39% chance of going 0-16.

The Miami Dolphins are much better than their 0-8 record would lead one to believe. Four of their losses came by three points each. When corrected for their opposition, their offense is 15th in the league and defense is 26th—not good but far from the bottom. Overall they rank 27th when score margin is taken into account rather than wins and losses. But they are still 0-8, and being known as the better of the two winless teams is not much consolation. However, there is hope on the horizon:

Opponent        % Dolphins win
Buffalo            57.81%
at Philadelphia    29.68%
at Pittsburgh      18.75%
New York Jets      62.50%
at Buffalo         45.31%
Baltimore          71.87%
at New England      0.00%
Cincinnati         60.93%

Favored:   4-4 (4-12)
Projected: 3-5 (3-13)

Odds of winning 1+ games: 99.5%

The Dolphins aren't a terrible team; they are a poor team that has so far played like a terrible team. But their remaining schedule, combined with their actual strength (I use that word loosely), produces a projected 3-5 finish. The Dolphins are actually favored in four of the eight games, but the cumulative odds produces a more likely three wins. Most importantly, this method puts their odds of going winless at only one-half of 1%.

Now, here's the catch (and no, not the standard disclaimer that computers and statistics can't prove anything; that's a given): the team's psyche has to be intact after their disastrous start. If losing feeds on itself and they start to believe they can't win a game, they'll continue to lose. Instead of four wins, they might have four more 3-point losses.

But somewhere down the line I think they'll break through with a win, and that will end their "curse" and they will go on to win a few more. Unlike the Rams, who are still up in the air, I think there is no question the Miami Dolphins will win one or more games this season.

NFL - Will New England Go Undefeated?

I rarely get too distracted by the NFL, but New England's season is one of those things even those who prefer college football can't ignore. What everyone wants to know is: will New England have the mythical undefeated season that everyone's been chasing since the 1972 Miami Dolphins?

This boils down to two questions: Can they go undefeated in the regular season? And if so, can they go 19-0 after winning the Super Bowl?

For many, the Pats winning the Super Bowl has become almost a given. Though a rematch with the Colts will likely occur, winning the Super Bowl seems a foregone conclusion. Going undefeated for the rest of the regular season, in other words, is assumed to be much harder than winning the Super Bowl! This does make sense, if you consider that a) a team can't be at peak motivation to win every single game, especially near the end of the year with home field locked up for the playoffs, and b) there has to be a team that wins the Super Bowl, but there doesn't have to be an undefeated team in the regular season, therefore the former must be easier to do than the latter. At least that's how our brains see things.

As it turns out, the Patriots have several easy games left on their schedule and it is very possible that they will go undefeated the rest of the way. Looking at the latest SportsRating NFL Power Rating, the Pats play teams ranked 24, 10, 28, 5, 23, 31, and 7. That is, four teams ranked #23 or below, and three top 10 teams (two of those at home). Using the score margin power rating and my pairwise-game comparison technique reveals the rather stunning results:

Team               odds NE win
at Buffalo           100.00%
Philadelphia          90.27%
at Baltimore         100.00%
Pittsburgh            86.11%
New York Jets        100.00%
Miami                100.00%
at New York Giants    95.83%

Favored:   7-0 (16-0)
Projected: 7-0 (16-0)

Odds of 16-0: 74.5%

Wow. So what it's saying is the Pats have almost a 3 in 4 chance of a spotless regular season. These are unheard-of odds. Normally, if you assign any kind of odds game by game and multiply through them, you get a fairly low value, especially over seven games. But the Patriots have easily the #1 offense, as well as the #1 defense, so an undefeated season is not only possible, but likely.

Four of the games show up as washes. What the 100% result means by this method is, of course, that all of the game-comparison possibilities favor New England. In other words, the worst of New England's games rates higher than the best games played thus far by Buffalo, Baltimore, the Jets, and Miami. If New England brings their worst performance to the field, they will still win these games. The only way those other teams have a chance is if they play much better than we've seen so far, and/or New England plays much worse. That could happen, of course—€”we may not have seen New England's downside range, or the best the other teams have to offer—€”but based on what they've shown so far, beating New England is not a possibility for them.

Philadelphia is much better than their 3-5 record, and has the most chance of pulling off the upset of anyone except Pittsburgh. Both teams must play at New England, however. The season ends in East Rutherford, and if the Pats are still undefeated they'll be as "up" for this game as any team trying to win a playoff spot.

Let's take this analysis through the playoffs, using the current division standings and the power rating to guess who their opponents will be:

Team           odds NE win
Tennessee        98.61%
Indianapolis     79.16%
vs. Dallas       81.94%

Favored:  10-0 (19-0)
Projected: 9-1 (18-1)

Odds of going 19-0: 47.6%

The odds finally catch up with New England when spread over 10 games. Though heavily favored in each one, the cumulative odds of a loss mount. They still have almost a 50/50 chance of pulling it off, but they're projected to finish 18-1, like the 1985 Chicago Bears.

The question is, then, where will they lose? If they're projected to finish the regular season unbeaten, and projected at 18-1, wouldn't they have to lose in the Super Bowl? Well, if you want to create a conundrum, yes. Looking at cumulative odds, you can't "break up" and "re-assemble" the odds to try to find which particular game will supposedly go which way. You look at a span of games and, without specifying wins and losses, it returns an expected finish. Since the Pats will be favored in every game, their loss would be an upset—by definition, we won't be expecting it.

No system is going to predict perfectly the odds of a situation, and Vegas and other power ratings will come up with different numbers, but it's clear that with the dominant team they have and the favorable schedule upcoming, the New England Patriots have a good chance of making history. Certainly the best chance of any team since the Dolphins did it last.

NFL Power Ratings for week 9

Shocker: The Pats are #1

rnk Team                         rec     overall     Pts[rank]   W/L[rank]
1.  New England Patriots        (9-0)   38.97 [ 1]  25.50 [ 1]  13.47 [ 1]
2.  Indianapolis Colts          (7-1)   22.09 [ 2]  16.57 [ 2]   5.52 [ 2]
3.  Dallas Cowboys              (7-1)   16.78 [ 3]  12.37 [ 3]   4.40 [ 3]
4.  Green Bay Packers           (7-1)   11.55 [ 4]   7.29 [ 5]   4.25 [ 4]
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers         (6-2)   10.81 [ 5]   9.45 [ 4]   1.36 [10]
6.  Tennessee Titans            (6-2)    7.10 [ 6]   4.72 [ 7]   2.38 [ 5]
7.  New York Giants             (6-2)    6.39 [ 7]   4.07 [ 8]   2.32 [ 6]
8.  San Diego Chargers          (4-4)    5.68 [ 8]   4.85 [ 6]   0.82 [15]
9.  Minnesota Vikings           (3-5)    4.46 [ 9]   3.89 [ 9]   0.57 [21]
10. Philadelphia Eagles         (3-5)    4.22 [10]   3.49 [10]   0.72 [16]
11. Washington Redskins         (5-3)    3.89 [11]   2.20 [11]   1.69 [ 8]
12. Detroit Lions               (6-2)    3.63 [12]   1.44 [12]   2.18 [ 7]
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        (5-4)    2.42 [13]   1.15 [13]   1.26 [11]
14. Jacksonville Jaguars        (5-3)    1.84 [14]   0.35 [14]   1.48 [ 9]
15. Chicago Bears               (3-5)    0.88 [15]  -0.07 [15]   0.96 [12]
16. Seattle Seahawks            (4-4)   -0.47 [16]  -1.09 [16]   0.61 [19]
17. New Orleans Saints          (4-4)   -1.24 [17]  -2.14 [17]   0.89 [13]
18. Cleveland Browns            (5-3)   -1.31 [18]  -2.15 [18]   0.84 [14]
19. Houston Texans              (4-5)   -1.61 [19]  -2.17 [19]   0.55 [22]
20. Kansas City Chiefs          (4-4)   -1.93 [20]  -2.65 [20]   0.72 [17]
21. Carolina Panthers           (4-4)   -3.37 [21]  -4.10 [21]   0.72 [18]
22. Cincinnati Bengals          (2-6)   -4.03 [22]  -4.23 [22]   0.20 [28]
23. New York Jets               (2-7)   -4.11 [23]  -4.26 [23]   0.14 [30]
24. Buffalo Bills               (3-5)   -4.27 [24]  -4.59 [24]   0.32 [25]
25. Oakland Raiders             (2-6)   -4.70 [25]  -4.94 [25]   0.24 [27]
26. Arizona Cardinals           (3-5)   -5.20 [26]  -5.59 [26]   0.39 [24]
27. Atlanta Falcons             (2-6)   -7.65 [27]  -7.90 [28]   0.24 [26]
28. Baltimore Ravens            (4-4)   -7.66 [28]  -8.08 [29]   0.42 [23]
29. Denver Broncos              (3-5)   -8.13 [29]  -8.73 [30]   0.59 [20]
30. San Francisco 49ers         (2-6)  -13.69 [30] -13.87 [31]   0.17 [29]
31. Miami Dolphins              (0-8)  -15.07 [31]  -5.61 [27]  -9.45 [31]
32. St. Louis Rams              (0-8)  -27.68 [32] -17.67 [32] -10.01 [32]

Not surprisingly, the Colts remain #2, on both the overall rating and both subcomponents. Dallas is #3 across the board, making them the NFC's Super Bowl favorite.

In the scoring breakdown, New England's offense and defense both top the charts, while the Colts have to settle for having the third best offense to go with the second best defense. The Cowboys' offense takes the #2 spot but their defense lags.

rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  New England Patriots        (9-0)   25.50  38.66  13.16
2.  Indianapolis Colts          (7-1)   16.57  31.00  14.43
3.  Dallas Cowboys              (7-1)   12.37  34.17  21.79
4.  Pittsburgh Steelers         (6-2)    9.45  24.36  14.90
5.  Green Bay Packers           (7-1)    7.29  25.85  18.55
6.  San Diego Chargers          (4-4)    4.85  24.38  19.53
7.  Tennessee Titans            (6-2)    4.72  20.88  16.15
8.  New York Giants             (6-2)    4.07  24.60  20.53
9.  Minnesota Vikings           (3-5)    3.89  21.53  17.63
10. Philadelphia Eagles         (3-5)    3.49  20.17  16.67
11. Washington Redskins         (5-3)    2.20  18.19  15.98
12. Detroit Lions               (6-2)    1.44  26.64  25.19
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        (5-4)    1.15  17.51  16.35
14. Jacksonville Jaguars        (5-3)    0.35  19.83  19.48
15. Chicago Bears               (3-5)   -0.07  19.03  19.11
16. Seattle Seahawks            (4-4)   -1.09  16.78  17.87
17. New Orleans Saints          (4-4)   -2.14  23.58  25.73
18. Cleveland Browns            (5-3)   -2.15  26.97  29.12
19. Houston Texans              (4-5)   -2.17  24.07  26.24
20. Kansas City Chiefs          (4-4)   -2.65  14.67  17.33
21. Carolina Panthers           (4-4)   -4.10  16.43  20.53
22. Cincinnati Bengals          (2-6)   -4.23  26.32  30.56
23. New York Jets               (2-7)   -4.26  19.66  23.92
24. Buffalo Bills               (3-5)   -4.59  13.52  18.11
25. Oakland Raiders             (2-6)   -4.94  16.52  21.47
26. Arizona Cardinals           (3-5)   -5.59  20.75  26.35
27. Miami Dolphins              (0-8)   -5.61  20.19  25.81
28. Atlanta Falcons             (2-6)   -7.90  13.87  21.78
29. Baltimore Ravens            (4-4)   -8.08  12.97  21.05
30. Denver Broncos              (3-5)   -8.73  17.62  26.35
31. San Francisco 49ers         (2-6)  -13.87  11.89  25.76
32. St. Louis Rams              (0-8)  -17.67  11.03  28.70

The Rams are rock-bottom in the overall power rating, win/loss, and points (shown here as margin), as well as scoring offense. Their defense isn't quite the worst, but it's close. The Dolphin do much better in several areas so they will probably end up with a few wins.

New England Patriots 33, Indianapolis Colts 26

I'm taking a brief foray into the National Football League just because of the excitement over the upcoming Colts/Patriots game. I ran my power ratings using the NFL games to date, and, no surprise, the Patriots came out on top and the Colts were second. My score formula yielded a projected score of:

New England 33, Indianapolis 26

which is a pretty boring prediction, but my pairwise-comparison method showed a 70% chance for the Patriots to win. That's rather high for an NFL game between the two top teams. But it reflects an important fact that's been talked about, that of New England running up scores. This of course would have an effect on any pure points-based power rating, assuming they actually do it, and that no one else does it.

Regardless, here are the results of the Points (score margin based) Power Rating for the NFL:

NFL score margin power rating thru Oct. 29 games
#   Team                         rec    Rating  Off    Def 
1.  New England Patriots        (8-0)   25.98  39.83  13.85
2.  Indianapolis Colts          (7-0)   16.83  31.86  15.02
3.  Dallas Cowboys              (6-1)    9.67  32.25  22.57
4.  San Diego Chargers          (4-3)    8.79  25.31  16.51
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers         (5-2)    8.37  22.61  14.24
6.  Green Bay Packers           (6-1)    7.61  24.41  16.79
7.  Tennessee Titans            (5-2)    4.77  21.13  16.36
8.  Philadelphia Eagles         (3-4)    4.16  20.27  16.10
9.  Jacksonville Jaguars        (5-2)    3.93  19.84  15.91
10. New York Giants             (6-2)    3.79  24.66  20.86
11. Washington Redskins         (4-3)    2.03  17.70  15.66
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        (4-4)    0.87  18.31  17.43
13. Minnesota Vikings           (2-5)    0.62  19.39  18.77
14. Kansas City Chiefs          (4-3)   -1.04  14.03  15.08
15. Chicago Bears               (3-5)   -1.23  18.94  20.17
16. Seattle Seahawks            (4-3)   -1.36  16.05  17.42
17. Cleveland Browns            (4-3)   -1.66  26.66  28.33
18. Houston Texans              (3-5)   -1.83  24.80  26.63
19. Cincinnati Bengals          (2-5)   -2.29  27.11  29.40
20. Detroit Lions               (5-2)   -2.67  24.35  27.02
21. Oakland Raiders             (2-5)   -2.96  18.02  20.99
22. Denver Broncos              (3-4)   -3.91  20.68  24.60
23. New York Jets               (2-6)   -4.33  19.45  23.78
24. Carolina Panthers           (4-3)   -4.41  16.18  20.59
25. New Orleans Saints          (3-4)   -4.95  20.48  25.43
26. Buffalo Bills               (2-5)   -5.31  12.61  17.93
27. Miami Dolphins              (0-8)   -5.70  19.84  25.54
28. Arizona Cardinals           (3-4)   -6.24  21.56  27.80
29. Baltimore Ravens            (4-3)   -6.64  12.54  19.18
30. Atlanta Falcons             (1-6)   -7.81  13.77  21.59
31. San Francisco 49ers         (2-5)  -14.92  11.27  26.20
32. St. Louis Rams              (0-8)  -18.08  10.69  28.78

Notice the two outliers. Every other team is within a point of the next team except the top two.

Now listed by scoring offense:

NFL scoring offense ratings thru Oct. 29 games
#   Team                         rec    Rating  Off    Def
1.  New England Patriots        (8-0)   25.98  39.83  13.85
2.  Dallas Cowboys              (6-1)    9.67  32.25  22.57
3.  Indianapolis Colts          (7-0)   16.83  31.86  15.02
4.  Cincinnati Bengals          (2-5)   -2.29  27.11  29.40
5.  Cleveland Browns            (4-3)   -1.66  26.66  28.33
6.  San Diego Chargers          (4-3)    8.79  25.31  16.51
7.  Houston Texans              (3-5)   -1.83  24.80  26.63
8.  New York Giants             (6-2)    3.79  24.66  20.86
9.  Green Bay Packers           (6-1)    7.61  24.41  16.79
10. Detroit Lions               (5-2)   -2.67  24.35  27.02
11. Pittsburgh Steelers         (5-2)    8.37  22.61  14.24
12. Arizona Cardinals           (3-4)   -6.24  21.56  27.80
13. Tennessee Titans            (5-2)    4.77  21.13  16.36
14. Denver Broncos              (3-4)   -3.91  20.68  24.60
15. New Orleans Saints          (3-4)   -4.95  20.48  25.43
16. Philadelphia Eagles         (3-4)    4.16  20.27  16.10
17. Jacksonville Jaguars        (5-2)    3.93  19.84  15.91
18. Miami Dolphins              (0-8)   -5.70  19.84  25.54
19. New York Jets               (2-6)   -4.33  19.45  23.78
20. Minnesota Vikings           (2-5)    0.62  19.39  18.77
21. Chicago Bears               (3-5)   -1.23  18.94  20.17
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        (4-4)    0.87  18.31  17.43
23. Oakland Raiders             (2-5)   -2.96  18.02  20.99
24. Washington Redskins         (4-3)    2.03  17.70  15.66
25. Carolina Panthers           (4-3)   -4.41  16.18  20.59
26. Seattle Seahawks            (4-3)   -1.36  16.05  17.42
27. Kansas City Chiefs          (4-3)   -1.04  14.03  15.08
28. Atlanta Falcons             (1-6)   -7.81  13.77  21.59
29. Buffalo Bills               (2-5)   -5.31  12.61  17.93
30. Baltimore Ravens            (4-3)   -6.64  12.54  19.18
31. San Francisco 49ers         (2-5)  -14.92  11.27  26.20
32. St. Louis Rams              (0-8)  -18.08  10.69  28.78

and by scoring defense:

NFL scoring defense ratings thru Oct. 29 games
#   Team                         rec    Rating  Off    Def
1.  New England Patriots        (8-0)   25.98  39.83  13.85
2.  Pittsburgh Steelers         (5-2)    8.37  22.61  14.24
3.  Indianapolis Colts          (7-0)   16.83  31.86  15.02
4.  Kansas City Chiefs          (4-3)   -1.04  14.03  15.08
5.  Washington Redskins         (4-3)    2.03  17.70  15.66
6.  Jacksonville Jaguars        (5-2)    3.93  19.84  15.91
7.  Philadelphia Eagles         (3-4)    4.16  20.27  16.10
8.  Tennessee Titans            (5-2)    4.77  21.13  16.36
9.  San Diego Chargers          (4-3)    8.79  25.31  16.51
10. Green Bay Packers           (6-1)    7.61  24.41  16.79
11. Seattle Seahawks            (4-3)   -1.36  16.05  17.42
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        (4-4)    0.87  18.31  17.43
13. Buffalo Bills               (2-5)   -5.31  12.61  17.93
14. Minnesota Vikings           (2-5)    0.62  19.39  18.77
15. Baltimore Ravens            (4-3)   -6.64  12.54  19.18
16. Chicago Bears               (3-5)   -1.23  18.94  20.17
17. Carolina Panthers           (4-3)   -4.41  16.18  20.59
18. New York Giants             (6-2)    3.79  24.66  20.86
19. Oakland Raiders             (2-5)   -2.96  18.02  20.99
20. Atlanta Falcons             (1-6)   -7.81  13.77  21.59
21. Dallas Cowboys              (6-1)    9.67  32.25  22.57
22. New York Jets               (2-6)   -4.33  19.45  23.78
23. Denver Broncos              (3-4)   -3.91  20.68  24.60
24. New Orleans Saints          (3-4)   -4.95  20.48  25.43
25. Miami Dolphins              (0-8)   -5.70  19.84  25.54
26. San Francisco 49ers         (2-5)  -14.92  11.27  26.20
27. Houston Texans              (3-5)   -1.83  24.80  26.63
28. Detroit Lions               (5-2)   -2.67  24.35  27.02
29. Arizona Cardinals           (3-4)   -6.24  21.56  27.80
30. Cleveland Browns            (4-3)   -1.66  26.66  28.33
31. St. Louis Rams              (0-8)  -18.08  10.69  28.78
32. Cincinnati Bengals          (2-5)   -2.29  27.11  29.40

New England is also #1 on defense, once adjustments are made for opposition. It's true the Colts have played tougher opponents, but New England's opponents have tougher defenses. The Colts are #3 in defense when adjusted, instead of #1. So it will be the #1 offense and defense vs. the #3 offense and defense that clash on Sunday.

The Win/Loss component I use for the college game is not as relevant for the pros, where there is more parity. But for completeness' sake:

NFL Power Rating: Win/loss component
#   Team                         rec    rating
1.  New England Patriots        (8-0)    9.51
2.  Indianapolis Colts          (7-0)    8.94
3.  Green Bay Packers           (6-1)    3.73
4.  Dallas Cowboys              (6-1)    3.69
5.  New York Giants             (6-2)    2.26
6.  Jacksonville Jaguars        (5-2)    2.11
7.  Tennessee Titans            (5-2)    2.02
8.  Detroit Lions               (5-2)    1.77
9.  Washington Redskins         (4-3)    1.41
10. Pittsburgh Steelers         (5-2)    1.29
11. San Diego Chargers          (4-3)    1.17
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        (4-4)    1.06
13. Chicago Bears               (3-5)    0.89
14. Kansas City Chiefs          (4-3)    0.86
15. Carolina Panthers           (4-3)    0.78
16. Seattle Seahawks            (4-3)    0.77
17. Denver Broncos              (3-4)    0.75
18. Philadelphia Eagles         (3-4)    0.74
19. Cleveland Browns            (4-3)    0.71
20. New Orleans Saints          (3-4)    0.57
21. Baltimore Ravens            (4-3)    0.52
22. Arizona Cardinals           (3-4)    0.51
23. Houston Texans              (3-5)    0.43
24. Minnesota Vikings           (2-5)    0.35
25. Oakland Raiders             (2-5)    0.29
26. Cincinnati Bengals          (2-5)    0.28
27. San Francisco 49ers         (2-5)    0.24
28. Buffalo Bills               (2-5)    0.24
29. New York Jets               (2-6)    0.16
30. Atlanta Falcons             (1-6)    0.12
31. St. Louis Rams              (0-8)   -9.28
32. Miami Dolphins              (0-8)   -9.46

The extra win is what gives New England the slightly higher score. Do the Rams play the Dolphins? I'd be almost as interested in that game...

and now the combined ratings:

NFL Overall Power Rating for games thru Oct. 29
#   Team                         rec    rating       Points      Win/Loss 
1.  New England Patriots        (8-0)   35.49 [ 1]  25.98 [ 1]   9.51 [ 1]
2.  Indianapolis Colts          (7-0)   25.77 [ 2]  16.83 [ 2]   8.94 [ 2]
3.  Dallas Cowboys              (6-1)   13.36 [ 3]   9.67 [ 3]   3.69 [ 4]
4.  Green Bay Packers           (6-1)   11.34 [ 4]   7.61 [ 6]   3.73 [ 3]
5.  San Diego Chargers          (4-3)    9.97 [ 5]   8.79 [ 4]   1.17 [11]
6.  Pittsburgh Steelers         (5-2)    9.67 [ 6]   8.37 [ 5]   1.29 [10]
7.  Tennessee Titans            (5-2)    6.80 [ 7]   4.77 [ 7]   2.02 [ 7]
8.  New York Giants             (6-2)    6.05 [ 8]   3.79 [10]   2.26 [ 5]
9.  Jacksonville Jaguars        (5-2)    6.05 [ 9]   3.93 [ 9]   2.11 [ 6]
10. Philadelphia Eagles         (3-4)    4.91 [10]   4.16 [ 8]   0.74 [18]
11. Washington Redskins         (4-3)    3.45 [11]   2.03 [11]   1.41 [ 9]
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers        (4-4)    1.94 [12]   0.87 [12]   1.06 [12]
13. Minnesota Vikings           (2-5)    0.97 [13]   0.62 [13]   0.35 [24]
14. Kansas City Chiefs          (4-3)   -0.17 [14]  -1.04 [14]   0.86 [14]
15. Chicago Bears               (3-5)   -0.33 [15]  -1.23 [15]   0.89 [13]
16. Seattle Seahawks            (4-3)   -0.59 [16]  -1.36 [16]   0.77 [16]
17. Detroit Lions               (5-2)   -0.89 [17]  -2.67 [20]   1.77 [ 8]
18. Cleveland Browns            (4-3)   -0.95 [18]  -1.66 [17]   0.71 [19]
19. Houston Texans              (3-5)   -1.39 [19]  -1.83 [18]   0.43 [23]
20. Cincinnati Bengals          (2-5)   -2.00 [20]  -2.29 [19]   0.28 [26]
21. Oakland Raiders             (2-5)   -2.66 [21]  -2.96 [21]   0.29 [25]
22. Denver Broncos              (3-4)   -3.16 [22]  -3.91 [22]   0.75 [17]
23. Carolina Panthers           (4-3)   -3.62 [23]  -4.41 [24]   0.78 [15]
24. New York Jets               (2-6)   -4.16 [24]  -4.33 [23]   0.16 [29]
25. New Orleans Saints          (3-4)   -4.38 [25]  -4.95 [25]   0.57 [20]
26. Buffalo Bills               (2-5)   -5.06 [26]  -5.31 [26]   0.24 [28]
27. Arizona Cardinals           (3-4)   -5.72 [27]  -6.24 [28]   0.51 [22]
28. Baltimore Ravens            (4-3)   -6.11 [28]  -6.64 [29]   0.52 [21]
29. Atlanta Falcons             (1-6)   -7.69 [29]  -7.81 [30]   0.12 [30]
30. San Francisco 49ers         (2-5)  -14.67 [30] -14.92 [31]   0.24 [27]
31. Miami Dolphins              (0-8)  -15.16 [31]  -5.70 [27]  -9.46 [32]
32. St. Louis Rams              (0-8)  -27.37 [32] -18.08 [32]  -9.28 [31]

The Dolphins don't do nearly as bad in Points as their record would indicate. The Rams are essentially rock bottom by any measure. I'd take the Dolphins by a touchdown at least.