SportsRatings: College Football

Super Bowl 45 (XLV) Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Pittsburgh Steeler vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday, February 6, 2011: Super Bowl XLV in Dallas, TX at 6:30 pm eastern

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) vs. Green Bay Packers (13-6)

Super Bowl XLV (45): The Steelers are in their 8th Super Bowl, the Packers in their 5th.

Vegas line/spread: Green Bay by 2 1/2 (over/under 44.5).

The Super Bowl is the most bet-on sporting event by far, where public money controls the line movements. The Packers opened a 2 1/2 point favorite, with anywhere from 1 1/2 to 3 points being offered early. The game is expected to be much lower scoring than last season's 37-36 shootout, and the over/under has declined slightly from 45 to 44.5.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. spread
Pittsburgh	45.1%	51%
Green Bay	54.9%	49%

Green Bay is slightly ahead of Pittsburgh in the Strength Power Rating for NFL teams; they are #2 to the Steelers' #3.

Rnk  Team                        rec   rating  offense       defense
  1. New England                14-3   14.41   34.11 [  1]   19.70 [  7]
  2. Green Bay                  13-6   12.20   26.28 [  3]   14.08 [  1]
  3. Pittsburgh                 14-4   10.04   25.18 [  6]   15.14 [  2]

Comparing game performances the Packers edge the Steelers winning roughly 55% of the time; when a 2.5 point spread is factored in the Steelers have a very narrow edge in outcomes.

Strength Power Rating:      Green Bay 19, Pittsburgh 17

As noted on the listing above, Green Bay is slightly ahead in both scoring offense (#3 to #6) and scoring defense (#1 to #2). The game features the top two scoring defenses in the NFL, one reason the game is expected to be lower-scoring.

The Strength Power Rating expects an even lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers, with the Packers holding just over a 2 point advantage.

Yardage analysis:   Pittsburgh 20,  Green Bay 20     per attempt:   Pittsburgh 24, Green Bay 20

Pittsburgh is 3rd in yardage differential (yards gained - yards yielded per game) and Green Bay is 7th. The Steelers are 14th in total offense but #2 in total defense, while the Packers are 9th and 5th respectively. As both teams are stronger on defense, a low scoring game is predicted by the yardage numbers, too. But Pittsburgh instead of Green Bay comes out on top. Both teams should have just over 300 total yards, with the Steelers ahead by only about 10 yards, which translates into pretty much a dead heat. (Note that unlike for college football, for the NFL we use unadjusted yardage numbers that do not account for schedule strength.)

The per-attempt numbers are probably more relevant for pro football than for college, and here the Steelers are a slightly more convincing favorite. The passing games should be about equal per-attempt but Pittsburgh should average a full yard per rushing play more than Green Bay and that will give them the win according to the per-attempt rundown.

Yardage + turnovers + kick returns projection:  Pittsburgh 20, Green Bay 19

Pittsburgh is #2 in turnover margin and Green Bay is #3 in the NFL, so neither team should have a huge advantage. Both teams should garner 1 or 2 takeaways, with the Steelers having a slightly higher chance for 2 than the Packers. The total estimated benefit for the Steelers is just over 1/2 a point.

The Steelers also have a slim edge in kick returns, mainly on kickoffs where they excel on defense and Green Bay is poor on fielding. They rank dead last in the league, however, on punt returns, though the Packers aren't much better on defense. Overall the Steelers' edge might be about 1/4 point, and the odds of a big play on returns is fairly slim for both sides.

The Steelers' edge in yardage was slim to start with, and the minor additions for turnovers and kick returns give the Steelers a total of a one-point edge.

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Pittsburgh rushing offense: #11

Green Bay rushing defense: #18

Rashard Mendenhall had another great season with over 1,000 yards again, with 13 touchdowns compared to last year's 7. Green Bay's rushing defense isn't great, and the Steelers should have nearly 120 yards on the ground. And because Green Bay ranks 28th in per-attempt rushing defense Pittsburgh could have significantly more if they emphasize the run and Mendenhall gets going.

Pittsburgh passing offense: #14	Green Bay passing defense: #5   per att: #7
Pittsburgh interceptions thrown ranking: #3	Green Bay interceptions picked ranking: #1
Pittsburgh quarterback protection rank: #23	Green Bay pass rush rank: #2

Love him or hate him, Ben Roethlisberger has gotten the job done this season once again. Though his yardage is down a lot—due mostly to missing the first four games of the year on suspension. One thing he's done right is to reduce his interceptions to a measly 7. With Mike Wallace playing much better in the 2nd half of the year, Pittsburgh's passing game is underrated by full-season stats. They should have over 200  yards, but Green Bay's passing defense is pretty solid.

One of the Packers' strongest areas is interceptions, where they lead the league. Though Roethlisberger hasn't thrown many this year, two of them came in the conference finals against the Jets and helped them come back. The Packers should pick Roethlisberger once in the Super Bowl; if they get more than that it could be the difference in the game. The Packers' pass rush is one of the best in the league, too, and they look to have 2-3 sacks as Pitt's protection hasn't been great and could be worse without center Maurkice Pouncey.

When Green Bay has the ball

Green Bay rushing offense: #24

Pittsburgh rushing defense: #1

Green Bay doesn't have that much of a running game, as their top runner for the season (Brandon Jackson) averaged 3.7 per carry and top rusher in the playoffs (James Starks) averages 3.5. QB Aaron Rodgers averages 5.6 per scramble. With the Steelers' defense ranking 1st against the run, Green Bay might have a tough time establishing a ground game. If the Packers get more than 100 yards it's a great sign for them, and if Pittsburgh can hold them below 80 it's a good omen for the Steelers.

Green Bay passing offense: #5	Pittsburgh passing defense: #5   per att: #1
Green Bay interceptions thrown ranking: #9	Pittsburgh interceptions picked ranking: #7
Green Bay quarterback protection rank: #15	Pittsburgh pass rush rank: #1

Aaron Rodgers' arm is a big reason for the Packers' success this year. He completed 65.7% of his passes this season for 3,922 yards and 28 touchdowns. Matched evenly with the Steelers good pass defense, Rodgers should have nearly 250 yards through the air. On a per-attempt basis the Steelers are #1 in the nation in limiting yards per passing attempt, which could be the important statistic. 

Rodgers has thrown 11 interceptions and the Steelers are 7th in the league in picks, so they shoud get around one in the game; as with Green Bay's secondary, more than that would be a boon obviously as Super Bowls often turn on turnovers. And just as Green Bay's pass rush will likely give Roethlisberger trouble, the Steelers should harass Rodgers. They had 48 regular-season sacks, tops in the league, and Green Bay's offensive line protection is only average. They should have 2-3 sacks in the game.

 

Pittsburgh's season

Wins vs. playoff teams (4) 
Losses (4)
L to losing teams (0)  

1. Atlanta 15-9
2. @ Tennessee 19-11
3. @ Tampa Bay 38-13
4. Baltimore 14-17
5. Cleveland 28-10
6. @ Miami 23-22
7. @ New Orleans 10-20
8. @ Cincinnati 27-21
9. New England 26-39
10. Oakland 35-3
11. @ Buffalo 19-16 OT
12. @ Baltimore 13-10
13. Cincinnati 23-7
14. NY Jets 17-22
15. Carolina 27-3
16. @ Cleveland 41-9
17. Baltimore 31-24
18. NY Jets 24-19

The Steelers only beat four playoff teams, and that's including the playoff season and counting Baltimore twice. But of their four losses, all were to playoff teams, too, and they got revenge on two of the teams (Baltimore and New York). The defense was only to blame for one loss, to New England where they gave up 39 points. In the other three—in particular the losses to Baltimore and New Orleans where they scored 24 points combined, the offense was the problem.

That first loss (to Baltimore) was in the first four games where Roethlisberger was on suspension. In three of the four games Pittsburgh scored fewer than 20 points. In 10 of the 14 games since his return they've topped 20 points. They've won four straight and, more significantly, eight of their last nine games.

Green Bay's season

Wins vs. playoff teams (6) 
Losses (6)
L to losing teams (3)

1. @ Philadelphia 27-20
2. Buffalo 34-7
3. @ Chicago 17-20
4. Detroit 28-26
5. @ Washington 13-16 OT
6. Miami 20-23 OT
7. Minnesota 28-24
8. @ NY Jets 9-0
9. Dallas 45-7
10. @ Minnesota 31-3
11. @ Atlanta 17-20
12. San Francisco 34-16
13. @ Detroit 3-7
14. @ New England 27-31
15. NY Giants 45-17
16. Chicago 10-3
17. @ Philadelphia 21-16
18. @ Atlanta 48-21
19. @ Chicago 21-14

Of the Packers' six losses, three were to playoff teams but surprisingly three were to losing teams. Two of those, however, were overtime games. In fact, no team beat the Packers by more than 4 points this year. Twice they lost by an overtime field goal, twice by a regulation field goal, and twice by four points.

The Packers' offense was all over the place, scoring just three in a loss to Detroit but drilling the Cowboys, Giants, and Falcons for 45, 45 and 48. The defense was more consistently solid, particularly after game 8 where they shut out the Jets. Before that they gave up an average of 18.6 points in regulation; from then on it was just 12.9 per game.

Key Injuries

Maurkice Pouncey will not be starting the game for the Steelers and is unlikely to play. Pouncey started the entire season until an ankle injury knocked him out of the conference championship game against the Jets.

But Green Bay might be without linebacker Erik Walden, who has three sacks in the Packers last four games. Walden joined the team in mid-season right before the defense began to dramatically improve. He appears more likely to play than not, but probably won't be 100%.

Psychology

It's been over a decade since the Packers have been to a Super Bowl so it's new to many of their players, while Pittsburgh won't have any mental distraction. But since the Steelers have won the Super Bowl two out of the last five years, Green Bay might be the hungrier team. For a game of this magnitude I don't normally try to pick an emotional advantage unless it's obvious.

Final analysis

This game looks like a defense-oriented struggle, as both teams are better defending than on offense. But then again, Auburn-Oregon looked every bit like a high-scoring shootout, and both the Super Bowl contestants have shown the ability to run up points. Indeed, their last meeting was just such a shootout, with Pittsburgh winning 37-36.

But that's not the likely result. Defense should keep a lid on the scoring, with solid pass defenses and pass rushes limiting the heroics of Roethlisberger and Rodgers. And neither ground game is that spectacular to start with. But there's where I see the Steelers' edge: they should be able to stifle to Packers' running game while having at least a decent amount of success on the ground themselves. Pittsburgh is the best in the league per-game and per-play at rushing defense, and this should help overcome some of their offensive shortcomings.

If things go according to plan, the Steelers won't have to score very much, and they should be able to prevent Green Bay from having one of their 40+ point romps. Control the running game and focus on corralling Rodgers' passing, and the Steelers should win their 7th Super Bowl. I'm going with the minor upset in a close game.

Prediction:  Pittsburgh 21, Green Bay 20

 

Super Bowl 44 Results: Onside kick, interception TD power Saints over Colts, final score 31-17

It was a somewhat anticlimactic finish, with Peyton Manning's incomplete pass sealing the Saints 31-17 victory, but earlier New Orleans provided two of the biggest moments in Super Bowl history: a successful onside kick that opened the 2nd half and led to a touchdown, and a 74-yard return of a Manning interception for another TD.  Ultimately those plays would be the difference on a night where both Drew Brees and Manning played exceptionally for most of the game.

The first quarter was all Indianapolis as Manning guided the team into position for field goal and later hit Pierre Garcon perfectly for a 19-yard TD strike and a 10-0 Colts lead.

Manning was 9 of 14 in the first quarter but attempted only two passes in the 2nd quarter as New Orleans monopolized the ball. Garrett Hartley kicked his first of three 40+ yard field goals to make it 10-3, then Brees took the team to the Colts' goal line, but Mike Bell slipped on 3rd down and Pierre Thomas got stuffed by several defenders on 4th down.

Coming with just 2 minutes left in the half, it appeared that the Saints had lost the momentum. But the defense held and New Orleans got the ball back quickly enough to get within Hartley's range again. The Saints went into the locker room down 10-6.

They came out of the locker room with a trick up their sleeves. Head coach Sean Payton gambled with an onside kick call to begin the second half and it paid off. After a long scuffle in which the ball seemed to change hands several times, New Orleans was awarded possession. Several plays later Brees connected with Thomas and the Saints had their first lead, 13-10.

Manning answered quickly though, driving downfield and setting up a 4-yard touchdown jaunt by Joseph Addai. Manning hit tight end Dallas Clark three times on the drive, including a 27-yard pass that floated just over the defenders' fingertips. The Colts led again, 17-13.

New Orleans cut the lead to one on Hartley's final field goal, his longest of the day at 47 yards, near the end of the third quarter. Hartley won the battle of the kickers; on the first drive of the 4th quarter Indianapolis' Matt Stover missed from 51 yards, his only attempt of the day.

Brees was unstoppable on the ensuing drive, completing seven consecutive passes, the last one to Jeremy Shockey for a touchdown and a 22-17 lead. The two-point conversion attempt was initially ruled an incomplete pass, as Lance Moore caught the ball near the goal line, reached it across, and bobbled it before it was kicked away by a defender. On replay, however, the officials ruled that after the bobble he had maintained possession with the ball across the goal line before it was broken up.

That put the Saints up 24-17 and with Manning at the helm a comeback drive and an overtime game seemed imminent. But Manning had started to show signs of being human in the second half, with several poorly-thrown balls and a few near-picks. Finally, Tracy Porter intercepted Manning and ran the ball through a crowd for a touchdown, going a total of 74 yards.

With the Saints now leading 31-17 Manning and the Colts needed a touchdown and an onside kick but they couldn't even get the former, failing on 4th down and goal to go.

For all of the "best of all-time" talk about Manning in the media recently, it was Brees who was the game MVP and tied the Super Bowl record for total completions at 32 in 39 attempts; Manning had one fewer, going 31 of 45. Brees had 288 yards to Manning's 333.

New Orleans lived up to their #1 ranking in the SportsRatings NFL Strength power rating, and took over the #1 spot in the Success ranking with the win. Both teams finished 16-3 overall on the year.

Super Bowl 44 Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Colts vs. Saints

The Saints might still rank #1 in the Strength power rating but they were very lucky to get to the Super Bowl. Minnesota had many chances to win the game, and only the Viking curse prevented them from winning (and then losing in the Super Bowl, of course). Unlike New Orleans' overtime win, Indianapolis had an easier time but still had to mount a decent-sized comeback to improve to 16-2.

NFC Championship results:

New Orleans 31, Minnesota 28 (OT)

AFC Championship results:

Indianapolis 30, New York Jets 17

The current Strength ratings:

num  Team                       record  rating   offense       defense
  1. New Orleans                 15-3    11.10   32.95 [  1]   21.84 [ 16]
  2. New England                 10-7     9.59   27.63 [  4]   18.03 [  5]
  3. Minnesota                   13-5     8.72   28.52 [  3]   19.79 [ 11]
  4. NY Jets                     11-8     8.03   22.46 [ 14]   14.42 [  1]
  5. Baltimore                   10-8     7.82   23.77 [ 12]   15.95 [  3]
  6. Indianapolis                16-2     7.34   26.26 [  7]   18.92 [  8]

As mentioned, New Orleans still ranks #1, with the top offense and a just-average defense. Indianapolis is more balanced, with a well-above-average offense and defense. And of course these results include games where teams basically didn't try to win—which means that Indianapolis' losses where they rested players are factored in. We'll take those out and see if it makes a difference in our Super Bowl Preview:

Super Bowl XLIV:  Indianapolis Colts (16-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (15-3)

Vegas line/spread: Colts by 5 1/2
Strength Power Rating Projection: New Orleans 30, Indianapolis 27
Game-comparison win %: New Orleans 58.8%

New Orleans has had the #1 ranked offense all year, while their defense has been about average for the league. Minnesota is in the same boat to a lesser degree, with a better defense and not-quite-as-potent offense. But on any given day Bret Favre and Adrian Peterson are just as powerful—and more balanced—than the Saints' Brees-led passing attack. In some ways the Saints are reminiscent of the 2007 New England Patriots, though not as dominant on offense or nearly as good on defense.

Game performance charts

New Orleans came back strong during the playoff season after a 3-game skid. At least, in the Arizona game; the Minnesota win was far less impressive. Indianapolis was consistently good in beating both Baltimore and the Jets after their 2-game skid.

Averaging the two playoff games for each team—when both teams were definitely trying their best to win—yields a 3.5 point advantage for Indianapolis. The Colts played two of their best games of the year, and easily their best defensive game against Baltimore. New Orleans was great against Arizona on both offense and defense but the Minnesota game showed they couldn't keep the intensity up. If they can play like they did against the Cardinals—or in earlier games against Philadelphia (48-22, game 2), Tampa Bay (38-7, game 10) and New England (38-17, game 11)—they'll win, no matter what Indianapolis does.

Though the Strength power rating favors New Orleans by 3 (closer to 4, really) points, removing the two games that Indianapolis "threw" narrows the gap to less than a single point. Additionally, Indianapolis just faced the best defense in the NFL and scored 30 points; now they'll be facing the 16th best defense. It seems that even if it turns into a high-scoring battle, Indianapolis should be able to keep up.

Final Analysis

Both teams have great quarterbacks, and although the deification of Payton Manning is getting a bit puke-worthy, he's the best horse in this show. The Colts will probably be without Dwight Freeney (at least, he won't be in top form) and that means that New Orleans' offense will likely be effective.

Like last week, I'm going with the fact that Indianapolis has managed to win every game they've tried to win. Super Bowl 44 should be high-scoring, and close, but ultimately finish in the Colts' favor.

Prediction: Indianapolis 38, New Orleans 35

2010 Conference Championship Previews: Saints vs. Vikings; Jets vs. Colts

After a divisional playoff round that saw three blowouts, the two conference regular-season champs (New Orleans, Indianapolis) are alive along with the NFC#2 (Minnesota) and one AFC wild card (New York Jets).

NFC Divisional Playoff Results

New Orleans 45, Arizona 14
Minnesota 34, Dallas 3

AFC Divisional Playoff Results

Indianapolis 20, Baltimore 3
New York Jets 17, San Diego 14

Here are the current Strength power rating standings:

num  Team                       record  rating   offense       defense
  1. New Orleans                 14-3    11.36   33.10 [  1]   21.73 [ 16]
  2. New England                 10-7     9.72   27.69 [  4]   17.97 [  5]
  3. NY Jets                     11-7     8.73   22.56 [ 14]   13.82 [  1]
  4. Minnesota                   13-4     8.65   28.50 [  3]   19.84 [ 11]
  5. Baltimore                   10-8     7.81   23.77 [ 12]   15.96 [  3]
  6. Green Bay                   11-6     6.75   28.85 [  2]   22.09 [ 17]
  7. Indianapolis                15-2     6.74   25.70 [  8]   18.96 [  9]
  8. San Diego                   13-4     6.08   27.30 [  5]   21.22 [ 15]
  9. Dallas                      12-6     6.07   21.32 [ 17]   15.25 [  2]
 10. Atlanta                      9-7     4.70   24.06 [ 11]   19.35 [ 10]

New Orleans ranks #1 as they have for most of the season, with Minnesota coming in at #4. The Jets rank considerably higher than the Colts, who are dragged down by their two "rest-the-starters" losses. We'll take those out in our preview of that game and see if it makes the difference.

Here's our rundown of the conference championships:

NFC: New Orleans Saints (14-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

Vegas line/spread: Saints by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating Projection: New Orleans 33, Minnesota 27
Game-comparison win %: New Orleans 61.5%

New Orleans has had the #1 ranked offense all year, while their defense has been about average for the league. Minnesota is in the same boat to a lesser degree, with a better defense and not-quite-as-potent offense. But on any given day Bret Favre and Adrian Peterson are just as powerful—and more balanced—than the Saints' Brees-led passing attack. In some ways the Saints are reminiscent of the 2007 New England Patriots, though not as dominant on offense or nearly as good on defense.

Game performance charts

New Orleans definitely hit a skid near the end of the season, as they were still trying to seal the top seed in their first two losses—including an embarrassing overtime loss to Tampa Bay at home—and had several close calls before that. Their final loss can be discounted, but the overall trend for the season wasn't good. Much like New England in 2007, the first 2/3 of the season is where they shined.

They came back strong in their playoff win, though, looking like the Saints of the early season, and playing one of thir best games. Of course, it's hard to grade New Orleans' offense against a Cardinal defense that gave up 45 points the game before, but the Saints' defense did a good job.

The Vikings' last game was just as good or better, though, making the game a tossup. In fact the Vikes' last two games—the 44-7 romp over the Giants and the 34-3 crushing of Dallas—are their best efforts of the season. While the Giants had nothing to play for, Dallas certainly did, and both the Viking offense and defense had a fantastic game.

The Strength ratings have New Orleans a good six point favorite, and discounting the Saints' final game makes it and even touchdown. But comparison playoff games reverses that, and even adding in home field advantage doesn't make up for it.

What a choice: Brees and Bush vs. Favre and Peterson. Both Minnesota's offense and defense played their season's best recently, so I'm taking experience and intangibles over home field advantage and picking the upset.

Prediction: Minnesota 27, New Orleans 24

AFC: Indianapolis Colts (15-2) vs. New York Jets (11-7)

Vegas line/spread: Colts by 7 1/2
Strength Power Rating Projection: Indianapolis 20,  New York 19
Game-comparison win %: Indianapolis 51%

The Colts bounced back after two rest-game losses, while the Jets edged another playoff team to stay alive. Like Minnesota, the Jets have the "story" after coach Rex Ryan called him team the favorite to win the Super Bowl despite being a wildcard; Joe Namath predicted a win over the Colts, over four decades after his most famous pick; and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez is getting more attention than any quarterback this side of Bret Favre. The Jets even beat the Colts, 29-15, last month.

Game Performance Charts

That win by the Jets was one of the Colts' rest games, though. Take those games out and no one has defeated the Colts when they played at full strength. Peyton Manning won't be on the sidelines for the second half of this game. Averaging those games out of the Strength power rating and the Colts gain nearly 3 points.

Even with that, though, they aren't huge favorites by the numbers. The Jets rank higher despite a stretch in which they lost six out of seven games. The Colts have been winning by a little, not a lot, and their defense as often as their offense has made the difference. The last game was a case in point as they held Baltimore to a field goal.

The Jets resurgence from 4-6 to playoff bound was defense-led, too. Despite the attention given to the talented but still green Sanchez, the Jet defense has been consistently strong the last eight games. The offense is erratic though, despite the emergence of the other great Jet rookie, Shonne Green, in the playoff season.

Comparing playoff performances the Colts have to be the favorite at home. Sanchez will be a great quarterback one day but Manning is among the best right now, and his team hasn't lost with him in the game.

Prediction: Indianapolis 20, New York Jets 10

NFL Playoff projections - Divisionals (final eight teams)

With eight teams left, here is the current NFL power rating (Strength only):

rnk  Team                       record  rating   offense       defense
  1. New Orleans                 13-3    10.48   32.64 [  1]   22.16 [ 18]
  2. New England                 10-7     9.69   27.60 [  5]   17.90 [  5]
  3. Baltimore                   10-7     8.74   24.79 [  9]   16.04 [  3]
  4. NY Jets                     10-7     8.45   22.78 [ 14]   14.32 [  1]
  5. Dallas                      12-5     7.85   22.39 [ 16]   14.53 [  2]
  6. Minnesota                   12-4     7.19   27.94 [  4]   20.74 [ 14]
  7. Green Bay                   11-6     6.85   28.89 [  2]   22.03 [ 17]
  8. San Diego                   13-3     6.67   27.97 [  3]   21.29 [ 15]
  9. Indianapolis                14-2     5.83   25.83 [  8]   20.00 [ 10]
 10. Philadephia                 11-6     5.05   27.00 [  6]   21.95 [ 16]
 11. Atlanta                      9-7     4.75   24.10 [ 11]   19.34 [  9]
 12. Carolina                     8-8     3.66   20.68 [ 18]   17.01 [  4]
 13. Houston                      9-7     1.79   24.03 [ 12]   22.23 [ 19]
 14. Pittsburgh                   9-7     1.78   22.48 [ 15]   20.70 [ 13]
 15. Miami                        7-9     1.34   24.25 [ 10]   22.91 [ 21]
 16. Cincinnati                  10-7     0.53   19.06 [ 21]   18.52 [  7]
 17. Denver                       8-8     0.29   20.47 [ 19]   20.17 [ 11]
 18. Arizona                     11-6     0.27   23.28 [ 13]   23.01 [ 22]

The teams are paired by color that play each other in the next round.

As we can see, the biggest discrepancy is between New Orleans and Arizona, two teams with strong offenses but mediocre to poor defense. Arizona is coming off a huge offensive performance in their win over Green Bay, with Kurt Warner looking better than ever, while New Orleans has dropped three straight games (the last few while "resting" their key players), so the gap might not be as wide as it seems here.
Vegas spread/line: New Orleans by 7
Power Rating Projection: New Orleans 35, Arizona 23
By Percentage: New Orleans 76%

Baltimore at Indianapolis is the next biggest gap, with the Colts the underdog despite the best record in the NFL. Their rating is also compromised by their two losses, which were also rest-induced. Still, Baltimore is favored by the numbers, even with home field added. It's probably best to exclude data from the last two weeks of the season—in which case the Colts are a 4 point favorite—but I like picking the upset.
Vegas spread/line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2
Power Rating Projection: Baltimore 22, Indianapolis 21
By Percentage: Baltimore 51%

New York Jets at San Diego: The next level inside the perfectly nested matchups pits the Jets against the Chargers in the other AFC battle. Unlike the other teams in the NFL with great records, San Diego actually won their last few games. Here, it looks like the Jets' great defense not quite overcoming the Chargers' strong offense on San Diego's home field.
Vegas Spread/line: San Diego by 7 1/2
Power Rating Projection: San Diego 22, New York Jets 21
By Percentage: San Diego 51%

Dallas at Minnesota: The best game of the weeked, and closest in record, will pit another strong offense (Vikings) vs. another great defense (Dallas). Home field edge decides the favorite here.
Vegas spread/line: Minnesota by 3
Power Rating Projection: Minnesota 22, Dallas 20
By Percentage: Minnesota 54%

Chance to win Super Bowl, by team

Using the game-rating comparison system—and without looking at all possible pairings, just using the most likely next opponent—here are the % likelihood of advancement for each team:

Team        % to win Playoff     Conf. champ      Super Bowl
New Orleans            76%           48%             26%
Arizona                24%            7%              2%
Minnesota              54%           24%             11.5%
Dallas                 46%           21%             10.5%
Indianapolis           49%           26%             12%
Baltimore              51%           26%             14%
San Diego              51%           23%             11%
NY Jets                49%           25%             13%

So basically New Orleans is well out in front, with 6 other teams all having about the same chance. But  the Saints' offensive explosiveness proabably overrates them in the Strength ratings, while Indianapolis has yet to lose a game they've tried to win. 

Head-to-head, by picking winners only, New Orleans defeats Minnesota, while San Diego barely edges Baltimore due to home field advantage, and the Saints win the Super Bowl.

But when it's narrowed to four teams we'll take a closer look, including game-by-game performance charts, to decide which stats are accurately affecting the teams.

NFL power rating week 14 (2009): Will New Orleans, Indianapolis meet in the Super Bowl undefeated?

Since there are two 13-0 teams, I thought I'd better take a look at the NFL in more detail. What are the odds both will finish 16-0? And what are the chances we'll have the dream of all dreams, a clash between two 18-0 teams in the Super Bowl?

Here is the Strength Power Rating for all NFL teams as of last Monday (12/14/2009):

 rnk Team                       record   rating   offense       defense
  1. New Orleans                 13-0    13.53   35.30 [  1]   21.76 [ 20]
  2. New England                  8-5    11.51   28.12 [  3]   16.60 [  3]
  3. Indianapolis                13-0    11.46   27.64 [  5]   16.18 [  2]
  4. Minnesota                   11-2     7.85   28.63 [  2]   20.78 [ 15]
  5. Baltimore                    7-6     7.83   24.76 [ 10]   16.92 [  4]
  6. Philadephia                  9-4     6.41   27.69 [  4]   21.28 [ 16]
  7. San Diego                   10-3     6.05   27.56 [  6]   21.50 [ 18]
  8. NY Jets                      7-6     5.72   21.28 [ 16]   15.56 [  1]
  9. Green Bay                    9-4     4.23   25.02 [  8]   20.78 [ 14]
 10. Dallas                       8-5     3.28   21.60 [ 15]   18.32 [  8]
 11. Denver                       8-5     3.26   20.56 [ 18]   17.30 [  5]
 12. Houston                      6-7     3.13   24.77 [  9]   21.64 [ 19]
 13. Arizona                      8-5     2.99   23.09 [ 14]   20.10 [ 10]
 14. Miami                        7-6     2.40   24.40 [ 11]   21.99 [ 21]
 15. Cincinnati                   9-4     2.15   20.11 [ 19]   17.95 [  6]
 16. Atlanta                      6-7     2.00   23.49 [ 13]   21.49 [ 17]
 17. San Francisco                6-7     1.77   20.01 [ 20]   18.23 [  7]
 18. NY Giants                    7-6     1.58   26.23 [  7]   24.64 [ 28]
 19. Pittsburgh                   6-7     0.23   20.69 [ 17]   20.45 [ 12]
 20. Tennessee                    6-7    -0.41   24.18 [ 12]   24.59 [ 27]
 21. Carolina                     5-8    -2.45   18.05 [ 23]   20.50 [ 13]
 22. Washington                   4-9    -3.33   16.41 [ 26]   19.74 [  9]
 23. Buffalo                      5-8    -3.68   16.60 [ 25]   20.28 [ 11]
 24. Jacksonville                 7-6    -4.62   17.65 [ 24]   22.28 [ 22]
 25. Chicago                      5-8    -4.65   18.24 [ 22]   22.89 [ 23]
 26. Seattle                      5-8    -5.33   18.97 [ 21]   24.30 [ 26]
 27. Tampa Bay                    1-12   -9.95   15.68 [ 29]   25.63 [ 29]
 28. Cleveland                    2-11  -10.43   13.29 [ 30]   23.72 [ 24]
 29. Kansas City                  3-10  -10.62   16.28 [ 27]   26.90 [ 31]
 30. Oakland                      4-9   -11.52   12.20 [ 31]   23.73 [ 25]
 31. Detroit                      2-11  -14.36   16.22 [ 28]   30.58 [ 32]
 32. St Louis                     1-12  -16.07   10.69 [ 32]   26.77 [ 30]

Unfortunately we see that we don't have two totally dominant undefeated teams. Indianapolis is #3 behind New England, even though they beat them (at home, by 1 point) and the Pats are now struggling somewhat. Indianapolis has only the #5 offense to go with the #2 defense, and more worrying is that the Saints have just the #20 defense, leaving even them open to defeat.

The good news is that after the Colts it's a fairly good-sized to the next playoff-viable AFC team (San Diego), which means with home field advantage there's hope for two undefeated teams entering the playoffs, and some small hope for the dream Super Bowl.

Let's explore the odds, using the game-comparison system:

New Orleans Saints (13-0)  win%
Dallas              80.5%
Tampa Bay           94.7%
@ Carolina          81.1%
Total odds of 16-0: 61.8%

Indianapolis Colts (13-0)    win%
@ Jacksonville      74.0%
NY Jets             71.6% 
@ Buffalo           75.7%
Total odds of 16-0: 40.1%

So it looks good for New Orleans but Indianapolis isn't out of the woods. Taken together, there's just about a 25% chance that we'll have two 16-0 teams going into the playoff season.

The good news is that both teams are heavy favorites in all three of their remaining games, so there's nothing stopping it from happening. It's not like either team has an exceptionally hard game remaining, so each week they stay undefeated the odds get greater.

Now let's assume that the teams enter the playoff season as the top seed, and see what it would take for them to meet in the Super Bowl. We'll just assume the playoff picture remains roughly the same as it is now. Where it's very close we'll project a winner and go with them in order to form the brackets.

New Orleans Saints            win%
Arizona             75.7%
Minnesota           72.2%
Odds to Super Bowl: 54.7%

Indianapolis Colts              win%
Baltimore           68.0%
New England         62.7%
Odds to Super Bowl: 42.6%

Once again New Orleans has a better chance, this time of making the Super Bowl, period. Though Indianapolis has the best chance of any NFC team by far (beating New England due to home field advantage), it's more likely that some other team makes it. This is a simple "odds paradox" where Indianapolis is the overwhelming favorite to make the Super Bowl but have less than a 50% chance of doing so. In these cases the assumption is that they'll make it, since the next best team's odds are about 30%.

So what are the odds of New Orleans going 18-0? And Indianapolis? We have to multiply the odds of going 16-0 with the odds of making the Super Bowl, and we get:

New Orleans, odds of going 18-0:  33.8%

Indianapolis, odds of going 18-0:   17.1%

So the Saints have about double the chance of Indianapolis of going 18-0, and making it to the Super Bowl undefeated. Still, those are pretty decent odds considering that only one team has done it before.

The odds of BOTH teams entering the Super Bowl undefeated are about 5.8%. In other words, a bit better than a 1 in 20 chance of the most amazing Super Bowl of all time. The odds of there being at least one undefeated team in the Super Bowl are very good at 45.1% as this breakdown shows:

18-0 New Orleans the only 18-0 team: 28.0%
18-0 Indianapolis the only 18-0 team: 11.3%
Both New Orleans and Indianapolis 18-0: 5.8%
Neither New Orleans or Indianapolis 18-0: 54.9%

Next: what are the odds of having a 19-0 Super Bowl winner? Assuming that these are the two teams that make it, whether or not they went undefeated during the regular season, here are the odds:

1) 18-0 New Orleans (33.8%) beats Indianapolis (whether 18-0 or not) (52.7%): 17.8%

2) 18-0 Indianapolis (17.1%) beats New Orleans (whether 18-0 or not) (47.3%): 8.1%

Total odds of having a 19-0 Super Bowl champion: 25.9%

So basically it looks like we have a 25% chance of two teams finishing the season 16-0, and also about a 25% chance of having 19-0 Super Bowl champion this year.

Video: Pigeon provides kickoff return coverage for Raiders

A brief foray into NFL matters, just for this hilarious video:

That pretty much says it all. I didn't see the game to find out how long the pigeon stuck around after that play, but he doesn't look like he wants to go anywhere. He's got a whole field to comb for grubs and worms! (or whatever pigeons eat)

Super Bowl 43 Results - final score: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23

The Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl 43, beating Arizona 27-23 for their sixth Super Bowl victory. Cardinal QB Kurt Warner almost pulled off a big comeback with two fourth-quarter touchdowns to Larry Fitzgerald but couldn't offset James Harrison's record 100-yard interception return. Ben Roethlisberger's TD pass to Santonio Holmes with 35 seconds left put the Steelers up for good after they had briefly lost the lead late in the game.

Warner generally outperformed Roethlisberger, who won his second Super Bowl while performing questionably, though he finished 21-of-30 for 256 yards and a touchdown. Warner was 31 of 43 for 377 yards and three touchdowns but the interception by Harrison to end the first half was pivotal. Holmes and Fitzgerald were offensive stars for their teams, each with well over 100 receiving yards.

1st quarter

Pittsburgh went up 3-0 lead on an 18-yard Jeff Reed field goal. Steeler quarterback Ben Roethlisberger set up the score with completions of 38 yards to Hines Ward and 21 yards to Heath Miller. On first and goal from the one, Gary Russell lost four yards. Two plays later Roethlisberger appeared to score on 3rd-and-goal from the 1, but the touchdown was called back.

Arizona's first possession was less successful; they gained few yards and only one first down on a toss by Kurt Warner, as a subsequent penalty and fumble forced a punt.

Roethlisberger immediately had the Steelers driving into Cardinal territory again with a 25 yard completion to Holmes. Another set of completions to Holmes and Miller put the Steelers in the red zone for the second time at the 7-yard line. Facing another 3rd and goal from the 1, this time Russell took it in for the touchdown and a 10-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter.

2nd quarter

Warner fared much better on the Cardinals' next attempt. Speeding up the play calling, he connected with Steve Breaston again for a first down, then pierced Steeler territory for the first time with a completion to Edgerrin James. A few plays later a 45-yarder to Anquan Bolden put the Cards on Pittsburgh's 1-yard line, then Ben Patrick leapt high in the end zone to grab Warner's pass and made it 10-7. Warner was 7-for-8 on the drive.

The Cardinal defense showed some life after that, and along with Pittsburgh's own mistakes, including two penalties, dug a big hole for the Steelers on 4th down.

Steve Breaston returned Mitch Berger's punt 34 yards to begin their drive in Steeler territory, and momentum seemed to have changed. But a 15-yard penalty and a LaMarr Woodley sack of Kurt Warner pushed Arizona back onto their side of the field and forced a punt. 

It appeared that Pittsburgh would have the last possession of the half, as they had dominated time of possession thus far. But Arizona got another momentum changing play from Karlos Dansby, who intercepted Roethlisberger on Pittsburgh's 34 yard line at the 2:00 warning.

Warner hit a couple of clutch passes, the latter to Fitzgerald for his first catch of the day, to put the Cardinals in the red zone with less than a minute to go. The Cardinals had 1st and goal from the 1-yard line when James Harrison made one of the biggest plays in Super Bowl history, intercepting Warner and taking it back 100 yards for a Steelers score, rolling into the end zone along with two Cardinals including Fitzgerald, who may have kept Harrison's knee from touching before he tumbled into the end zone with no time remaining.

Harrison's return shattered the record for the longest interception return in a Super Bowl; the previous record was a 75-yard TD return by Willie Brown of the Oakland Raiders against Minnesota in Super Bowl XI.

Halftime score: Pittsburgh 17, Arizona 7

3rd quarter

The Cardinals attempted to recover from the jolt in the 2nd half. The offense, with James running well, pushed into Steeler territory once again before stalling.

Pittsburgh took over and an Arizona face masking penalty helped put them at midfield, and a roughing the passer call moved them to the Cardinal 35. Willie Parker had his best run of the game, a 15-yarder that put the Steelers on the 5 yard line, first and goal to go, but he was stuffed for a 4-yard loss on the next play. Roethlisberger failed on two passing attempts but a questionable roughing call—Arizona's 8th penalty of the day—kept the Steeler drive alive. Still, Pittsburgh had to settle for another short field goal as the Cardinal defense made more tough stops near the goal line.

The drive took over eight minutes off the clock, however, leaving the Cards just over 15 minutes for their comeback attempt. The third quarter ended with the Steelers up 20-7.

4th quarter

Arizona's offense stalled again—hurt by yet another penalty, for holding—and Ben Graham's punt was short and Arizona was called for another penalty, giving Pittsburgh solid field position. But the Cardinal defense stepped up with two tackles-for-loss and the Steelers punted the ball back without running much time off the clock.

With time getting scarce, Warner put together an impressive hurry-up drive. After reaching mid-field with three completions, he hit J.J. Arrington for a 22-yard strike to Pittsburgh's 28, then hit Fitzgerald to put them on the ten. Fitzgerald nabbed another pass that moved them to the four yard line, and two plays later he leapt for Warner's second 1-yard TD toss of the day, closing the gap to 20-14 with 7 1/2 minutes to go.

On the following series Darnell Dockett's second sack of the day was huge for the Cardinals, forcing another Pittsburgh three-and-out; again the Steelers took just two minutes off the clock. Once again, from their own 25 Arizona wasted little time in reaching midfield, and Warner's 23-yard strike to Breaston put them near the red zone. But another penalty (#11) backed them up 10 yards, and Warner suffered three rare incompletions and the Cardinals had to punt, pinning the Steelers on their 1-yard line.

Pittsburgh's increasingly ineffective offense couldn't dig out of the hole; the Steelers stalled for no gain twice before suffering a safety on a holding penalty, and Arizona got the ball back again, down just 20-16. 

Arizona took over on their 36 and needed just two plays—the latter a 64 yard pass to Fitzgerald out in front of three Steeler defenders—to take the lead 23-20.

Roethlisberger's last chance to redeem himself—and make up for his poor performance in the Steelers' last Super Bowl—started slow, but he managed to get the Steelers to midfield with a minute to go, converting a 3rd-and-six. A 40-yard completion to Santonio Holmes later and they were at the six yard line; Roethlisberger connected with Holmes again for the go-ahead TD with 35 seconds remaining.

Warner immediately went to Fitzgerald for 20 yards to near mid-field, 22 seconds to go. Another 13 yards to Arrington put them in Steeler territory. But on the next play Warner was sacked by Woodley—his second of the day—and fumbled the ball, and Pittsburgh's Brett Keisel recovered for the Steelers. It might have been ruled a forward pass, but wasn't, and ended the Cardinals' hopes.

Final Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23

Super Bowl 43 preview, odds, & prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sunday February 1st: Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, FL 6:00* pm eastern (actual kickoff closer to 6:30)

Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (12-7)

The Steelers are looking for their sixth NFL title in their eighth appearance; the Cardinals are in their very first Super Bowl.

Vegas line: Pittsburgh by 7

The Steelers are heavy favorites, with the line now varying between 6 1/2 and 7 points.

Strength Power Rating:  Pittsburgh 29    Arizona 19

Pittsburgh is the #1 team in the league according to the Strength Power Rating and is favored by 10 points over Arizona, who barely registers as an average team when the entire season is considered. Here is the current state of the power rating through all games played so far this year:

num  Team                       record  rating   offense       defense
  1. Pittsburgh                  14-4    10.40   24.46 [  9]   14.06 [  1]
  2. Baltimore                   13-6    10.21   26.02 [  6]   15.80 [  3]
  3. Philadephia                 11-6     9.31   26.94 [  5]   17.63 [  4]
  4. Tennessee                   13-4     8.40   22.85 [ 16]   14.44 [  2]
  5. NY Giants                   12-5     7.87   26.95 [  4]   19.07 [  7]
  6. Indianapolis                12-5     5.89   24.08 [ 12]   18.19 [  6]
  7. San Diego                    9-9     4.55   26.99 [  2]   22.44 [ 17]
  8. New England                 11-5     3.88   24.30 [ 10]   20.42 [ 13]
  9. Carolina                    12-5     3.47   23.48 [ 14]   20.00 [ 10]
 10. New Orleans                  8-8     3.27   28.46 [  1]   25.19 [ 26]
 11. Minnesota                   10-7     2.96   22.58 [ 18]   19.61 [  9]
 12. Atlanta                     11-6     2.75   22.89 [ 15]   20.14 [ 11]
 13. Green Bay                    6-10    2.22   25.80 [  7]   23.57 [ 22]
 14. Chicago                      9-7     1.50   22.84 [ 17]   21.34 [ 14]
 15. Tampa Bay                    9-7     1.49   21.03 [ 20]   19.53 [  8]
 16. Dallas                       9-7     0.89   23.97 [ 13]   23.07 [ 20]
 17. NY Jets                      9-7     0.17   24.17 [ 11]   24.00 [ 23]
 18. Arizona                     12-7     0.08   26.96 [  3]   26.87 [ 28]

That's quite a gap between the rankings of the teams, even bigger than last year's gap between the Patriots and the Giants. Last year, the Giants were ranked among the top 10 teams as they made the Super Bowl from the wildcard slot, and had an impressive set of late-season games. Arizona has come alive during the playoffs, but not the way the Giants did. Though the Steelers were hardly as dominant as the Patriots, they still rank at the top and haven't slowed down the way New England did in the 2nd half of the 2007 season.

Arizona on offense: If Arizona is to win, they need a strong game from Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald as their #3 scoring offense takes on the Steelers' #1 ranked defense. The Steelers are rock-solid against both the pass and the run, ranking #1 and #2 in the league. The Cardinals' air attack is #2 in the league but their rushing game is dead last, which should allow the Steeler defense to focus on Warner. They're tied for 6th in interceptions and are 2nd in sacks, and Warner has been vulnerable to both, particularly interceptions. Because the Steelers are so good against the pass and the Arizona running game might not be a threat, the Cardinals have to speed up the play calling to keep Pittsburgh's D off-balance.

Pittsburgh on offense: Though the Steelers rank just 17th in passing and 23rd in rushing in unadjusted yards, when corrected for their opposition their offensive output looks much better: Pittsburgh's offense ranks 9th in adjusted scoring average, which should be more than adequate against the Cardinals' 28th-ranked defense. Ben Roethlisberger isn't having the kind of year Warner had, and he's been sacked 51 times and lost 7 fumbles this year. Arizona is 22nd in raw passing yards yielded on defense and 16th against the run, so they can theoretically keep up with the Steeler offense, but that's against relatively weak competition. And while Pittsburgh lacks consistency on offense, they do have more of a run/pass balance, and Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore should keep the Cards on their toes if they try to rush Roethlisberger, and Hines Wards' questionable knee might make them more important still.

Special Teams: Pittsburgh's punting game is woeful and near the bottom of the league in both punting average and returns; Arizona isn't much better, though, so they don't have that big of an advantage in the field position game. The two teams are nearly identical in field goal percentage and points scored on kicks.

Game-comparison win %
Pittsburgh      70%
Arizona          30%  

Pittsburgh has been markedly more consistent than Arizona this season, with the latter suffering several big losses throughout the season. The Steelers haven't won by huge margins, but tend to play at a reliable level. This makes Pittsburgh a 7 in 10 favorite to win when all game-comparisons are cross-combined.

Pittsburgh's key games

Wins over playoff teams (5)

• Baltimore 23-20 (4th game of season)
• San Diego 11-10 (10th)
• @ Baltimore 13-9 (14th)
• San Diego 35-24 (17th)
• Baltimore 23-14 (18th)

Losses (4):

• @ Philadelphia 15-6
• @ New York Giants 21-14
• Indianapolis 24-20
• @ Tennessee 31-14

Pittsburgh has five wins over playoff teams—but those are all over Baltimore and San Diego, and four of the five were at home. But their losses are all to playoff teams as well; they haven't been devastatingly blown out, nor have they lost to a bad team. They bounced back from their worst game of the year ( the Tennessee loss) to shut out Cleveland 31-0 before the playoffs.

Arizona's key games

Wins over playoff teams (4):

• Miami 31-10 (2nd game of season)
• Atlanta 30-24 (17th)
• @ Carolina 33-13 (18th)
• Philadelphia 32-25 (19th)

Losses (7):

• @ Washington 24-17
• @ New York Jets 56-35
• @ Carolina 27-23
• New York Giants 37-29
• @ Philadelphia 48-20
• Minnesota 35-14
• @ New England 47-7

Three of Arizona's four wins over playoff teams occurred in the post-season itself; from their week two crushing of Miami through the end of the regular season, they beat no one of note. But over the next three weeks they avenged two losses.

Speaking of losses, the Cards had their share this year, and many of them weren't pretty. Four of them count as blowouts, three losses were to non-playoff teams, and two were blowout losses to non-playoff teams. Since New England was a playoff-level team at 11-5 that's a bit harsh, but the 47-7 loss—which happened just a little over a month ago—was a breakdown on all fronts. Some have suggested that it led to the team's turnaround, and certainly they've played much better in the four games since. But I'd hesitate to give such a devastating loss too much credit. They played a horrible game at New England, and since then they haven't, that's all.

Psychology

The Cards are in their first Super Bowl appearance while the Steelers have been here recently, and historically. While in many sports this would give Arizona the edge for "hunger" that usually doesn't apply in the Super Bowl; rookie teams typically have big problems. By my count, teams making their initial Super Bowl appearance are 9-18 and have been on the receiving end of quite a few blowouts.

Another wild card is Roethlisberger's performance. In his last Super Bowl outing he had a sloppy game to be kind. Pittsburgh still won, showing that they don't need him to be the star. But it would help if he had a much better game.

Final analysis

Last year's Super Bowl was an odd game. Despite dominating the season and being a heavy favorite by the oddsmakers, a very large section of the public didn't think the Patriots could complete their perfect season. And there were good reasons: the dominance they'd shown in the first half of the season had devolved into close calls and narrow escapes. Meanwhile the Giants had put together a string of remarkable games to make it to the Super Bowl. From that angle, it looked like a close game, and in the end it was.

This game has some similarities. Compared on a whole-season level, there's no way the Cardinals should beat the Steelers. Arizona rates as a completely average team by the power ratings, they've been blown out multiple times, and they have no running game. Pittsburgh rates as the best team in the league, and the oddsmakers favor them heavily as well.

Could this be another situation like last season? I don't think so. While the Giants were at least a top 10 team last year, in the playoffs they were neck and neck with the Patriots level of play. The Cardinals don't even look like they should have made the playoffs. Their defense is among the worst in the league.

But what about their last four games? What happened after the crushing loss to New England? Despite their defensive problems, they're certainly playing well enough recently to beat a Pittsburgh team with a very questionable offense.

However, I think Pittsburgh's defense will live up to its forebears in the Steel Curtain tradition. Without having to cope with a running game, they will be able to stifle Warner. The defense will give the offense opportunities, and Roethlisberger will do a lot better than last time around. Given that, and that Super Bowls are often blowouts and unkind to first-time teams, that's what I think will happen on Sunday.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 31   Arizona 10

Video: Green Bay Packer great Bret Favre sheds tears at press conference announcing his retirement

Bret Favre announced his retirement officially. He became emotional several times during the press conference, but declared that he had "no regrets" about his decision or his career.

He said his career wasn't about "the money, the fame, or the records."

1972 Miami Dolphins 'Perfectville' Commercials - both versions

The 1972 Dolphins were pretty good sports to film two different versions, though I'm sure they're glad about the one that aired...

Perfectville, population 1

Perfectville, population 2

Super Bowl 42 results - final score: New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14

18-1.

After seeing New England win all season, why doesn't it seem like a surprise at all that they lost?

Was it because so many people were picking New York? (And why was that? Was it wishful thinking, because so many wanted New York to win because they were sick of hearing about the Patriots?)

Was it because New York played them so close in their last meeting? The spread for the game was 12 points, but that was definitely low if you look at both teams' full seasons: New England at 18-0 and New York a pedestrian 10-6.

Or was it because New England had been dodging bullet after bullet for two months? First the close call at mid-season against Indianapolis—which was excuseable since Indianapolis came into the game undefeated. Then they barely beat 5-5 Philadelphia at home. Much less excuseable. The closest call was against 4-7 Baltimore, a game they really should have lost.

Then came a string of wins that didn't exactly convince the world they should be considered the best of all time, but it didn't matter—they finished the regular season undefeated, a feat that seemed impossible in this day and age.

But they never regained the level of dominance they showed in the first half of the season. Their playoff games—against low-seeded opponents—were unspectacular 31-20 and 21-12 wins. And against the Giants, they finally ran out of luck. They played like the Patriots of the second half of the year, far removed from the team that could choose its score in September and October.

The Giants, however, played their sixth consecutive great game. Their first 14 games saw them go 9-5, but they were truly no better than an average team. Then, in the 2nd quarter at Buffalo two days before Christmas, something changed. Down 14-0, they outscored the Bills 38-7 from that point to make the playoffs.

The first contest against the Patriots followed, where the Giants led into the 4th quarter before losing by 3 points. Even in losing, it ranked among their best performances of the year. But they were just getting started.

At Tampa Bay, the Giants took control of the game on Eli Manning's 20 of 27 passing and won, 24-14. Another road game, for the NFC championship, saw them beat heavy favorite Green Bay in overtime.

With each game they were getting better. The defense was solidifying. But would it be enough to topple the Patriots?

After five strong games, would the law of averages catch up to them and give them a subpar performance? Or had they really improved, and would momentum carry them even beyond their level of play in the first New England game? And as for the Patriots—when the chips were down, one game left, could they return to their early season form?

In my pre-game analysis, I said the only chance New York has is if their streak of solid games continued, and New England's streak of questionable play did likewise, in which case the game would be a tossup. I didn't believe both would happen, but New York played another excellent game, and clearly New England's offense was in the lackluster form of the last several months. The Giants' pressure worked like no other team's had against Tom Brady. Five sacks and innumerable hurries and hits flustered the Patriot offense. Meanwhile the Giant O did just enough to give them the 17-14 win.

And with it, the New England Patriots' dream of being the best ever crumbled, their dynasty of the 2000s failed to surpass the other Decade Dynasties. Their image is left tarnished by cheating allegations, and millions of football fans are celebrating along with the 1972 Dolphins squad.

For the Giants, what seemed impossible after two opening losses, and still unthinkable at mid-season, has come true; they are Super Bowl champions. No one will be calling them the best team of all time— most would agree that they weren't even among the top several teams of this season, but in the post-season they were undeniably the greatest, beating the two top NFC teams and the best AFC team in succession. When it counted, the Giants came through.

New England Patriots: Best NFL team of all-time?

There's some debate going on about the 2007-2008 New England Patriots. If they defeat the Giants on Sunday, winning the Super Bowl and finishing 19-0, should they be considered the best team of all time?

There are various arguments, pro and con. Generally the pro argument goes: they will be 19-0 which is unprecedented, they dominated their foes for most of the season, an undefeated hasn't been done in almost 40 years, the Brady/Moss offense is unstoppable. The con arguments? They've almost been beaten several times in the 2nd half of the year, they haven't been dominant in the playoffs, they don't have an "all-star" team beyond Brady/Moss/etc., the cheating scandal, et al.

Rather than get into subjective arguments, I turn to an objective power rating to decide the issue. Using a combination of Points and Win/Loss power ratings, each team from each NFL season can be rated and ranked. So if we want to know if New England is the best team ever, we have to ask: who is the best NFL team of all time up to this year?

The logical candidate is the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who went 17-0 and won the 1973 Super Bowl.

1972 Miami Dolphins              17-0-0   29.56 [1]  10.86 [1]  18.70 [1]

Their Win/Loss rating is an astonishing 18.7, but their Points rating is a pedestrian 10.86; still this adds up to a hefty 29.56 overall rating. Though they didn't dominate teams that year, they still rate as the best of 1972 by either comparison method. In general, though, their soft schedule makes most NFL fans consider them unworthy of the "best-ever" crown. For that, we look further.

ESPN.com has two lists, voted on by sportswriters and one with votes by readers, that list the top 10 NFL teams of all time. The '72 Dolphins are second on both lists. #1 on both lists? The 1985 Chicago Bears.

1985 Chicago Bears               18-1-0   30.38 [1]  17.49 [1]  12.89 [1] 

"Da Bears" were a more dominant team, crushing New England 46-10 in the Super Bowl, and their one loss was not enough to keep them from scoring higher than Miami overall. So the Bears are #1? Not so fast. 20 teams are mentioned by the sportswriters and readers. #6 on the reader list and #3 on the writers list is the 1962 Green Bay Packer squad.

1962 Green Bay Packers           14-1-0   30.45 [1]  19.01 [1]  11.43 [1]

The '62 Packers score a touch higher than the '85 Bears, via their dominance in score margin. Though winning four fewer games, they rate almost as high in pure win/loss terms. This is, of course, a pre-Super Bowl era team; there were fewer teams and only a league championship to win. But the Pack won eight games by 17 or more points, lost only one game, and had a powerful defense.

Here's a list of all 20 teams from the articles, and their ranking via my combined power rating:

Year Team                        record   Rating     Points     Win/Loss
1962 Green Bay Packers           14-1-0   30.45 [1]  19.01 [1]  11.43 [1]
1985 Chicago Bears               18-1-0   30.38 [1]  17.49 [1]  12.89 [1]
1972 Miami Dolphins              17-0-0   29.56 [1]  10.86 [1]  18.70 [1]
1991 Washington Redskins         17-2-0   26.76 [1]  16.77 [1]   9.99 [1]
1976 Oakland Raiders             16-1-0   24.56 [1]  10.53 [2]  14.02 [1]
1989 San Francisco 49ers         17-2-0   22.86 [1]  14.53 [1]   8.33 [1]
1986 New York Giants             17-2-0   22.52 [1]  12.45 [1]  10.06 [1]
1996 Green Bay Packers           16-3-0   21.28 [1]  15.62 [1]   5.66 [1]
1973 Miami Dolphins              15-2-0   20.61 [1]  14.27 [1]   6.34 [1]
1998 Denver Broncos              17-2-0   19.97 [1]  11.36 [2]   8.61 [1]
1992 Dallas Cowboys              16-3-0   19.30 [1]  13.28 [1]   6.01 [1]
1978 Pittsburgh Steelers         17-2-0   18.37 [1]  10.36 [2]   8.01 [1]
1994 San Francisco 49ers         16-3-0   18.06 [1]  13.27 [1]   4.78 [1]
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers         15-4-0   17.39 [1]  12.58 [1]   4.81 [1]
1990 Buffalo Bills               15-4-0   16.90 [2]  10.91 [1]   5.99 [2]
1955 Cleveland Browns            10-2-1   16.66 [1]  13.26 [1]   3.40 [1]
1971 Dallas Cowboys              14-3-0   15.55 [1]  11.40 [1]   4.15 [1]
1999 St. Louis Rams              16-3-0   15.23 [1]  11.63 [1]   3.60 [4]
1993 Dallas Cowboys              15-4-0   13.88 [1]  10.62 [1]   3.25 [2]
1974 Pittsburgh Steelers         13-3-1   12.23 [2]   7.93 [2]   4.30 [2]

Notice that almost all of the teams are from the 70s to today. Obviously, teams from these decades are stronger than those of the 20s to 50s, but if we open up the ratings to get a sense of who was most dominant in their year (which is all you can ask of a team), another candidate for "best-ever" emerges: the 1941 Chicago Bears.

1941 Chicago Bears               12-1-0   33.75 [1]  21.19 [1]  12.55 [1]

This classic team went 12-1, won the league championship 37-9 and only lost once by a score of 16-14. In terms of point margins, they're tops on the list, and they lost only to the 2nd best team in the league.

But no matter who rates as the best so far, if the New England Patriots win on Sunday and finish 19-0, they will rank higher—much higher. Their 19 wins would be a record, and their point spread dominance over the rest of the league is clear. This is how they currently rate in the same system:

2007 New England Patriots        18-0-0   44.86 [1]  19.67 [1]  25.18 [1]

As you can see, their point margin rating is higher even than the 1962 Packers so far, and at 18-0 their Win/Loss rating is off the charts. Though their playoff opponents weren't the best, they have already defeated any other team that could have faced them (Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Green Bay). So even if beating the Giants isn't considered a tough feat, they've more than proven themselves already.

So the verdict is clear: if the Patriots win Sunday, they are the best NFL team of all time.

In fact, even if they lose they might still score higher than anyone else! Which may lead me to modify the system slightly to weight the Super Bowl more; this should probably be done anyway, as it is the championship game and the winner is considered the best team of the year regardless of record. If the Pats lose, I'll re-rank the teams in this manner and see where the Pats rank as an 18-1 team; if they lose, they'll have to via for title of best championship game losers.

Video: No more bikini girls, Packers or otherwise: Lingerie bowl cancelled again

In order to cover all aspects of the Super Bowl, followup on important news about the nexus of football and bikini-related issues, and to pander for more hits for this weblog, I must be the bearer of sad news: the Lingerie Bowl has been cancelled again. Evidently it was cancelled last year, too. I for one had thought it was permanently cancelled a long time ago, but I guess I wasn't paying attention.

To see what we'll be missing I present this video. Be warned, it contains questionable camera angles, bad puns from the announcers, an audible expletive, brief nudity, slow motion editing of the most objectionable content, and the possibility of removal from YouTube. In other words, it's pretty awesome and you should watch it now before it goes away.

UPDATE: Too bad, it went away. Instead here's another one with a smarmy comedian interviewing some models.

Super Bowl XLII Odds, Probabilities & Predictions: will New England beat the Giants and the spread?

The New England Patriots have been made a 12 point favorite over the New York Giants by Vegas. This is one of the bigger lines in Super Bowl history: out of the 41 contents, the line was in single digits 28 times. But it's not nearly the largest; that title goes to Super Bowl III in 1969, with the New York Jets were up to 19 point underdogs to the Baltimore Colts. The Jets, of course, won the game as guaranteed by Joe Namath. The San Francisco 49ers were favored by about the same amount over the San Diego Chargers in 1995, and covered, winning by 23.

The last time a team was favored by more than 12 was in 2002; this time the Patriots were the underdog, and like the Jets they pulled off the upset, beating the Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI.

Looking at score data for information, we turn to the power ratings, updated for the conference championships. Viewing the predictive component, which uses score info only, New England dominates the league as it has all year, and the Giants, despite their recent success, are far down the list.

rnk Team                         rec   rating  off    def
1.  New England Patriots        18-0   19.66  36.54  16.88
2.  Indianapolis Colts          13-4   11.03  28.13  17.09
3.  San Diego Chargers          13-6    9.33  25.45  16.11
4.  Green Bay Packers           14-4    9.17  27.55  18.38
5.  Dallas Cowboys              13-4    8.69  28.73  20.03
6.  Jacksonville Jaguars        12-6    7.09  26.77  19.67
7.  Pittsburgh Steelers         10-7    5.30  23.06  17.75
8.  Philadelphia Eagles          8-8    4.69  21.54  16.85
9.  New York Giants             13-6    4.29  24.32  20.02
10. Minnesota Vikings            8-8    3.41  22.64  19.22

When every game during the course of the season is counted equally, the Giants' recent performance doesn't carry more weight. Though they beat Dallas and Green Bay, they lost twice to Dallas and once to Green Bay earlier in the season. The Patriots 1st half of season dominance belies the close games they had in the 2nd half of the year. With these parameters, the prediction is bleak for the Giants:

New England Patriots        35
New York Giants             20
Spread =      15.36
Over/under =  54.64

% chance to win:
New England Patriots        83.3%
New York Giants             16.7%

Here the formula predicts an easy win for the Pats, slightly larger than the line. And five chances out of six to yield a New England victory when game results are cross-compared.

When the Patriots and Giants played recently, the result was a 3 point win for New England. Given that New England is not playing as well as it did in the 1st half of the season, and that New York's recent performance is much better than their average, can we make the power rating more sensitive to this?

As I've done before, I split the Patriots into their 1st half and 2nd half of season team; then I took it a step further and isolated the Giants' last five games, which includes the game with the Patriots as well as their playoff run.

rnk Team                         rec   rating  off    def
1.  New England Patriots        10-0   27.04  42.23  15.19
2.  New York Giants 2            4-1   12.75  31.66  18.90
3.  New England Patriots 2       8-0   11.80  29.75  17.94
4.  Indianapolis Colts          13-4   11.34  28.16  16.82
5.  Green Bay Packers           14-4    9.32  27.72  18.39
6.  San Diego Chargers          13-6    9.29  25.59  16.29
7.  Dallas Cowboys              13-4    9.14  28.74  19.59
8.  Jacksonville Jaguars        12-6    6.77  26.86  20.09
9.  Pittsburgh Steelers         10-7    4.94  23.09  18.15
10. Philadelphia Eagles          8-8    3.80  21.42  17.62
11. Minnesota Vikings            8-8    2.99  22.72  19.72
12. Washington Redskins          9-8    2.77  21.35  18.58
13. Seattle Seahawks            11-7    2.36  23.48  21.11
14. Chicago Bears                7-9    1.18  21.45  20.26
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         9-8    1.04  18.96  17.92
16. New York Giants              9-5    0.77  21.87  21.09 

Now we see the parity between the Giants' recent performance and New England's 2nd half of the season. In fact, New York is about a point better by this measure, which admittedly cherry-picks the Giants' best stretch of games. But that stretch contains their most recent performances, so it may be reflective of their current level of play going into the Super Bowl.

New York Giants 2           28
New England Patriots 2      27
Spread =       0.94
Over/under =  54.84

% chance to win:
New England Patriots 2      55%
New York Giants 2           45%

So by recent performance, the Giants are a 1 point favorite. But, when comparing game-by-game performance, the Patriots are still judged more likely to win overall...

But can we count on these teams to play as they have recently? Will the Giants revert to their earlier form, where as we can see they wouldn't stay on the field with New England? And could the Patriots recapture their early-season form, in which case again, they would blow out anyone? If those Pats show up, then we're back to a 15-point win for New England.

New York's recent performance has been pretty consistent. So let's assume their level of play is going to remain constant. New England, within its last eight games, has shown varying performance levels ranging from the near-loss to Baltimore to the 34-13 controlling of Pittsburgh. And with the Super Bowl and a 19-0 season at hand, it's very possible that they might be able to regain the hunger and form they had early in the season. If that happens, we might see this:

New England Patriots        39
New York Giants 2           25

A higher scoring game, similar in spread to our original estimate. Notice that the Patriots' decline in their last eight games is almost completely on offense; their defense has been pretty much the same all year.

And what about the chance for a blowout? Nearly half of history's Super Bowls could be considered blowouts or at least very one-sided matches. I don't think it's possible that the Giants can blow out the Patriots; if they manage to win, it will be like their recent playoff games, a close contest. But if the Patriots come out firing and Giants have a bad game? It might look like this:

New England Patriots        42
New York Giants             15 

in this case, the Patriots regain their early-season form (1st 10 games) while the Giants revert to theirs (first 14 games).

The question is which scenario is the most likely. And I don't see the Giants winning this game. The Patriots took their best shot several weeks ago, and that's after every team probing for New England's weaknesses. What more can they have discovered in the interim? Unless Tom Brady's ankle really is hurt and Randy Moss can't play, or they've come up with new schemes to effectively rattle the Patriots' defense, the miracle win remains a long shot.

Though the Pats have played erratically in the last eight games, their place in history is on the line. Therefore I think we'll see the Patriots of old (meaning, September-October) in Arizona. And they'll want to win by a lot, so trying to run up the score isn't out of the question. But at the same time, the Giants aren't going to roll over, and just like New England let up their intensity in the 2nd half of the season, almost spoiling their perfect record, the Pat defense will nap a bit in the fourth quarter if the game's well in hand.

A New York win is possible if the right conditions appear; I just don't think New England will play along. It won't be a blowout per sé, but I'd take New England to regain most of their magic and put the Giants away.

New England Patriots        42
New York Giants             24

Sorry Bikini Girls, Packers lose to Giants: final score 23-20 OT

Unfortunately there will be no more Packer Bikini Girls, and there won't be a very compelling matchup on Super Bowl Sunday. The only drama will be: can the Patriots again beat a team they beat on the road in the last game of the regular season?

A Patriots-Cowboys matchup would have been a rerun as well, but at least Dallas shared the best record in the NFC. Green Bay would have been the best matchup: they had the good record and they hadn't had a shot at the Pats yet. But alas, it was not to be.

The New England-New York game from several weeks ago was fairly close. The Giants led into the 3rd quarter before Brady and Moss engineered a comeback. But the season is really ending in an anti-climactic way after two teams started 8-0. We didn't even get a Pats-Colts rematch in the AFC championship game.

Of the four best teams in the league, we'll see one of them in the Super Bowl. Along with a chance to see history made. Or to see a historic upset if the Giants can pull it off.

Really, no one seems to care anymore who gets to the Super Bowl; the game itself has become so big in the last few decades that people talk about the commercials as much as the game. That or Janet Jackson's tit.

Speaking of tit, here's a last few looks at the Packers Bikini Girls. Too bad their team didn't win or they might have gotten a Playboy pictorial out of their team's success. Better luck next year, ladies.

Odds out of whack for New England - San Diego?

The line on New England vs. San Diego stands at 14 after opening at 15. This line seems to reflect the oddsmakers (and probably moreso, the public) thinking of New England as the dominant team they were during the 1st half of the season, rather than the not-nearly-as-good team they've been ever since.

Once again, the power ratings (points-based) for New England's entire season, and the same power rating when splitting the Patriots into two halves (first eight games, next nine games including 1st playoff game):

rnk Team                          rec   rating  off    def
1.  New England Patriots         17-0   19.88  37.22  17.33
2.  Indianapolis Colts           13-4   11.10  28.10  17.00
3.  Green Bay Packers            14-3    9.78  28.13  18.34
4.  San Diego Chargers           13-5    9.28  25.96  16.67

New England's overall team is 10 points better than San Diego, and with home field a 14-15 point spread doesn't seem unreasonable. But when split into two season-halves:

rnk Team                          rec   rating  off    def
1a  New England Patriots          8-0   26.14  41.68  15.54
1b  New England Patriots 2        9-0   14.38  33.28  18.90
2.  Indianapolis Colts           13-4   10.70  27.97  17.27
3.  Green Bay Packers            14-3    9.83  28.15  18.32
4.  San Diego Chargers           13-5    9.55  26.00  16.45

New England's 1st half team is 17+ points better than San Diego, but the team they've been recently has had close calls with most of the teams they've played. They look more like one touchdown favorites to me. Indeed, here are the score projections these ratings yield for all three comparisons (overall team, 1st-half team, and 2nd-half team):

New England Patriots        33   (Entire season)
San Diego Chargers          21

New England Patriots        38   (1st half season)
San Diego Chargers          19

New England Patriots 2      29   (2nd half season)
San Diego Chargers          22

The Patriots have played fairly consistently during both halves, as well, and did not step their game back up for the Jacksonville playoff game. Here is a graph (courtesy of Google chart-maker) of their game-by-game power ratings for the season:

This suggests they will continue to play like they have in recent months, and that the 14-15 point spread is too favorable to the Patriots. Also it seems that the correct split for New England's season is after game 10, which would make their most recent seven-game average even lower; their five worst performances have come in their last seven games.

That said, I wouldn't bet against the Patriots myself. Vegas usually has a pretty good reason for setting the line the way they do, and a touchdown here or there can change things dramatically. I'm not arguing that the Chargers will beat the line, just that the line is set too high. There is a difference between the two statements..!

Super Bowl probabilities, part III: Patriots' road just got a lot easier

With losses by Indianapolis and Dallas, the New England Patriots' march toward making history just got a lot easier. Both their odds for making the Super Bowl and chances of winning the big game were improved as their top two potential foes were knocked off on Sunday.

This is important, because as the number below suggest, the Patriots' "B-squad" is continuing to show up in the playoff season. This is New England's 2nd half-of-season team, not their dominant 1st-half squad. Here were the projected scores for the New England-Jacksonville game for New England's overall team, their 1st-half-of-season team, and 2nd-half team:

Overall
New England 37      Jacksonville 22

1st-half team
New England 41      Jacksonville 20

2nd-half team
New England 33      Jacksonville 24

Clearly the final result (31-20) was closest to the 2nd-half team projection, both in final score and how close the game was. The Patriots are continuing to play the way they have in the 2nd half of the season; that is, still the best team in the NFL but not the best NFL team of all time, which they may very well have been at 8-0. Here's an updated comparison between the power ratings, first with New England's entire season considered:

rnk Team                          rec   rating  off    def
1.  New England Patriots         17-0   19.88  37.22  17.33
2.  Indianapolis Colts           13-4   11.10  28.10  17.00
3.  Green Bay Packers            14-3    9.78  28.13  18.34
4.  San Diego Chargers           13-5    9.28  25.96  16.67
5.  Dallas Cowboys               13-4    8.72  28.70  19.97
6.  Jacksonville Jaguars         12-6    7.18  26.79  19.61
7.  Pittsburgh Steelers          10-7    5.40  23.11  17.71
8.  Philadelphia Eagles           8-8    4.73  21.53  16.79
9.  New York Giants              12-6    3.87  24.37  20.49

And with New England split into season-halves:

rnk Team                          rec   rating  off    def
1a  New England Patriots          8-0   26.14  41.68  15.54
1b  New England Patriots 2        9-0   14.38  33.28  18.90
2.  Indianapolis Colts           13-4   10.70  27.97  17.27
3.  Green Bay Packers            14-3    9.83  28.15  18.32
4.  San Diego Chargers           13-5    9.55  26.00  16.45
5.  Dallas Cowboys               13-4    9.09  28.79  19.69
6.  Jacksonville Jaguars         12-6    6.79  26.65  19.86
7.  Pittsburgh Steelers          10-7    5.11  23.04  17.93
8.  Philadelphia Eagles           8-8    4.48  21.49  17.01
9.  New York Giants              12-6    3.66  24.34  20.68

With that in mind, I will continue to project the cumulative Super Bowl odds, but using both New England's overall and 2nd-half-of-season teams for the projections (in brackets).

Next week's conference championships - odds to win

New England Patriots 76.1%  [64.2%]
San Diego Chargers   23.9%  [35.8%]

Green Bay Packers    65.0%
New York Giants      35.0%

Odds to reach and win Super Bowl

Team  odds to win:    conf. champ    Super Bowl winner
New England           76.1% [64.2%]   57.5% [41.8%]
San Diego             23.9% [35.8%]   13.0% [19.6%]         

Green Bay             65.0%           21.6% [27.6%]
New York Giants       35.0%            7.9% [11.0%]

The Pats are still big favorites, but their odds decrease markedly if you look only at their play in the 2nd half of the season. Their odds vs. their potential NFC foes look like this (2nd half number in brackets):

New England Patriots 71.6%  [61.4%]
Green Bay Packers    28.4%  [38.6%]

New England Patriots 83.0%  [72.2%]
New York Giants      17.0%  [27.8%]

Clearly the bracketed numbers reflect how they are playing today. Interestingly, San Diego is favored by the game-comparison system over both New York and Green Bay, though they're behind the Packers in overall average:

San Diego Chargers  51.3%
Green Bay Packers   48.7%

San Diego Chargers  60.5%
New York Giants     39.5%

So if the Chargers can make it past the Patriots they have a good shot at winning the whole thing.

The New England Patriots - two very different 8-0 teams

NFL observers can't help but to have noticed a dropoff in New England's dominance this season in the NFL from their early games to their more recent contests. But putting it into numbers makes it very plain. Blowing out all opponents on their way to 8-0, the road to 16-0 was much more difficult. Here's a look at how they've done over the entire season, and by halves of seasons.

New England is obviously the top team in the NFL. Undefeated, 16-0, and in points-based power ratings an 8 or 9 point favorite over the next-best team.

rnk Team                         rec    rating  off    def
1.  New England Patriots        16-0    20.29  37.62  17.32
2.  Indianapolis Colts          13-3    11.65  28.07  16.41
3.  Dallas Cowboys              13-3     9.39  29.38  19.98
4.  Green Bay Packers           13-3     8.97  27.19  18.22
5.  San Diego Chargers          12-5     8.83  25.48  16.64
6.  Jacksonville Jaguars        12-5     7.13  26.97  19.84
7.  Pittsburgh Steelers         10-7     5.68  23.20  17.52
8.  Philadelphia Eagles          8-8     4.84  21.52  16.67
9.  Seattle Seahawks            11-6     3.51  23.44  19.93
10. Minnesota Vikings            8-8     3.40  22.58  19.17
11. New York Giants             11-6     3.38  24.45  21.06
12. Washington Redskins          9-8     2.90  21.08  18.18
13. Chicago Bears                7-9     1.51  21.30  19.78
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         9-8     0.86  19.02  18.16
15. Tennessee Titans            10-7     0.42  18.05  17.63
16. Houston Texans               8-8    -0.34  24.02  24.37
17. Cleveland Browns            10-6    -0.97  23.38  24.35
18. Cincinnati Bengals           7-9    -2.03  23.42  25.46
19. New Orleans Saints           7-9    -2.47  23.58  26.05
20. New York Jets                5-11   -2.80  17.70  20.51
21. Arizona Cardinals            8-8    -3.52  23.26  26.79
22. Detroit Lions                7-9    -3.99  22.74  26.74
23. Denver Broncos               7-9    -4.14  20.80  24.94
24. Kansas City Chiefs           4-12   -5.74  14.12  19.86
25. Buffalo Bills                6-10   -5.85  15.19  21.04
26. Carolina Panthers            7-9    -5.91  15.73  21.65
27. Oakland Raiders              4-12   -6.35  18.06  24.42
28. Baltimore Ravens             5-11   -6.96  16.17  23.13
29. Miami Dolphins               1-15   -8.65  17.09  25.74
30. Atlanta Falcons              4-12   -10.54  15.67  26.21
31. San Francisco 49ers          5-11   -11.90  11.49  23.39
32. St. Louis Rams               3-13   -12.67  15.32  28.00

But if we split New England into two teams, their first eight games and their last eight games, it yields the following result:

rnk Team                         rec    rating  off    def
1a  New England Patriots 1       8-0    26.29  41.73  15.43
1b  New England Patriots 2       8-0    14.30  33.52  19.21
2.  Indianapolis Colts          13-3    11.26  27.94  16.68
3.  Dallas Cowboys              13-3     9.74  29.47  19.72
4.  San Diego Chargers          12-5     9.16  25.57  16.40
5.  Green Bay Packers           13-3     9.01  27.22  18.20
6.  Jacksonville Jaguars        12-5     7.05  26.92  19.86
7.  Pittsburgh Steelers         10-7     5.36  23.12  17.75
8.  Philadelphia Eagles          8-8     4.52  21.43  16.91
9.  Seattle Seahawks            11-6     3.50  23.44  19.93
10. Minnesota Vikings            8-8     3.45  22.61  19.16
11. Washington Redskins          9-8     3.23  21.17  17.94
12. New York Giants             11-6     3.08  24.37  21.29

Which is quite amazing. The first-half-of-season Patriots are a full 15 points better than the Colts, whereas the 2nd-half-of-season team is about 3 points better. Indeed, in the ninth game of the year—where their dominance disappeared—they beat the Colts by 4 points (though it was a road game).

After that, they struggled with Philadelphia, even Baltimore, and the New York Giants, though they still finished a record 16-0.

In the first half of the season, the Patriots beat San Diego 38-14, Dallas 48-27, and Washington 52-7. It's fair to say that while the 1st-half team was arguably the best in NFL history—even when compared relatively rather than absolutely—the 2nd-half team is merely the best in the NFL this season.

The drop-off has occurred both on offense and defense, though it is more pronounced on offense, where they average 8 points per-game fewer after adjusting for schedule. The defense also gives up four more points, dropping from the best defense to the 8th best.

What does this mean for the playoffs? Well, the odds I figured for the playoffs were based on New England's overall team average. If you look at their 2nd-half team, these odds change drastically.

Here are the odds the playoff teams have to beat the Patriots:

Team           vs. Pats    vs. Pats 1st half   vs. Pats 2nd half
Jacksonville     22.8           11.8               33.8          
San Diego        22.8            9.6               37.5
Indianapolis     27.7           14.1               39.8

Dallas           28.9           14.8               43.8
Green Bay        25.8           13.3               39.1
Seattle          18.8            5.1               31.6
NY Giants        16.5            1.5               29.4

Note the huge percentage rise for some of these teams. In particular, the Giants wouldn't have stood a chance against the Patriots in November, but have pretty good odds now, and as we saw in New York when they led by 12 points.

Here are New England's cumulative odds of reaching and winning the Super Bowl:

Patriots odds of making Super Bowl
Entire season team:           57.3%
1st half of season team odds: 77.3%
2nd half of season team odds: 40.4%

Odds of winning Super Bowl if they get there
Entire season team:           75.2%
1st half of season team:      88.8%
2nd half of season team:      61.4%

Overall odds of being Super Bowl champs
Entire season team:           43.1%
1st half of season team:      68.6%
2nd half of season team:      24.8%

A very different story. The first-half of season team was almost a Super Bowl shoo-in; the second half team still has good odds of making it, better than 50% odds of winning it if they make it, and a still-high 25% chance of being the team to win it all. When there are eight teams left, this is double the odds of an average team. But it's nothing compared to the over 2/3 odds the 8-0 team would have.

If anything this should give hope to Dallas and Green Bay fans for their Super Bowl hopes—and Jacksonville and Indianapolis fans for their hopes of getting to the game.

But if New England's second-half swoon was due due to laziness or mental fatigue, and the Patriots have re-asserted themselves for the playoffs and can regain their early-season form, this hope may be short-lived.

In any case, the "new" Patriots are still, on average, the best team in the NFL this season. The dominance they showed in the first half of the year wasn't present over last few months; it will be interesting to see whether they can turn it back up today.

Cheerleader break #2 - Miami Dolphins behind-the-scenes

I thought it was time for another cheerleading break, and this one comes courtesy of the Ft. Lauderdale Sun Sentinel.

Who says journalism is dead in the internet age? As this piece confirms, some reporters are still willing to take on tough assignments and uncover the stories that most would shy away from.

What is really interesting is that pro cheerleaders are paid about $50 a game. That's right, for four hours of official work, they make $12.50 per hour. Compared to the players, whose hourly average—again, using only game time for the rate—is at least 1000x that, based on 2001 stats where the average salary is over $1 million.

Now if you average in practice time, travel time, etc. we can assume pro football is a 40 hour/week job, then the hourly pay rate might be closer to $1,500/hr for a player. The cheerleaders, who according to this video practice a lot, go to appearances, yada yada yada, might work 20 hours a week, thus earning $1.25 an hour.

Of course, the players are more valuable to the league, and less easily replaced. But they are also better represented by their union; the cheerleaders have none. They tried, back in 1994, but it doesn't appear anything happened with that idea.

Additionally, some teams don't pay the cheerleaders at all. Young women, kept in sweatshop conditions, subjected to slave labor? This is sounding more and more like a women's prison movie. Which if you watch the video below isn't too far from the truth. Enjoy!

Super Bowl Probabilities, part II

Since the last NFL probability detour, the Wild Card playoff games eliminated some uncertainty, as well as streamlining the process of figuring the next set of probabilities. All four expected teams won last weekend, but three of the four games had probabilities so close that that getting past these games will markedly increase the winners' odds of advancement to the Super Bowl.

Of course, with only eight teams in the running rather than twelve, every team should see an increase in odds. However, some of the favorites' odds actually decrease we will see, due to the elimination of weaker potential opponents.

Here are the percentage picks for the 1st round (divisional) playoffs, followed by the updated odds for reaching and winning the Super Bowl. All probabilities are based on my pair-comparison system that rates each game played by each team and compares them round-robin to the games played by the opponent. Odds are then multiplied through for each playoff game to yield the final projected percentage odds.

1st round games: AFC

New England Patriots       77.2     Indianapolis Colts         60.3
Jacksonville Jaguars       22.8     San Diego Chargers         39.7

1st round games: NFC

Green Bay Packers          63.6     Dallas Cowboys             66.5
Seattle Seahawks           36.4     New York Giants            33.5

Team  odds to win:    1st round   conf. champ    Super Bowl
New England             77.2%       57.3%          43.1%
Indianapolis            60.3%       21.6%          12.8%
San Diego               39.7%       12.0%           6.3%         
Jacksonville            22.8%        9.1%           4.6%    

Dallas                  66.5%       39.1%          14.6%
Green Bay               63.6%       33.2%          11.4%
Seattle                 36.4%       14.8%           4.0%
New York Giants         33.5%       12.9%           3.2%

Interestingly New England's odds of winning their 1st round game went down from 82.5% to 77.2%. This is because there was about a 1/4 chance they'd face Tennessee should the Titans had defeated San Diego. Eliminating this possibility, and the possibility of facing Pittsburgh, leaves the Patriots against the stronger Jacksonville squad. The Colt's first round odds barely changed, as they were guaranteed a roughly similar opponent regardless of Wild Card outcomes. The NFC leaders also did not change much for the 1st round, since their bracket-jumping wild card (Washington) rates better than Tennessee, and therefore did not affect the odds as much.

Conference Championship Game

The Patriots' odds of winning the AFC and going to the Super Bowl drop slightly from 61% to 57.3%. Again, this is the reality of having no upsets in the Wild Card round. They'll face either the Chargers or the Colts should they beat Jacksonsville, and all rate among the top 6 teams in the NFL. The Colts' odds remain almost exactly the same as explained before. San Diego and Jacksonville have increased odds, almost completely the product of having made it past the uncertain wild card round. The Chargers move from 9% to 12% odds of reaching the Super Bowl, while the Jaguars, formerly a 1-in-20 longshot, almost double their chances to 9.1%.

Likewise the lower seeds in the NFC improve their odds, Seattle from 6.4 to 14.8%, and the Giants from 6.6 to 12.9. Head-to-head, according to the power rankings, Seattle only is favored over New York due to playing on their home field; the Giants would be similarly favored (around 55%) at home.

The Super Bowl

New England has already defeated two out of the four NFC teams eligibile for the Super Bowl, and would be favored by my method over each team anywhere from 71% to 83%. Overall their odds of winning the Super Bowl—and thereby finishing 19-0—come out to 43.1%. When I first calculated their odds of achieving this back when they were 9-0, the odds were 47.6%. This was when they were even more dominant, and there were fewer game comparisons. I updated these odds a month later and they were down to 27.6%, due to the Pats' unimpressive showings in several games. Since then, of course, they've gotten four more wins out of the way, and now have only three games left toward the goal.

The Colts' odds are again almost unchanged, but San Diego is interesting. Should they make the Super Bowl, the comparison system favors them against every team except Dallas, to whom they are a very slight underdog. Despite ranking lower in the power rating than Green Bay, they beat them in 53% of the game pairings. Their overall Super Bowl champion odds are 6.3% since they have to get past New England, but if they make it to the big game the Chargers' odds of winning it are 52.8%.

Likewise Jacksonville's odds of winning the Super Bowl—should they make it—are 51%, but their odds of getting there are so slim that their overall odds are but 4.3%. Overall, the odds of an AFC team winning the Super Bowl are a whopping 66.8%.

On the NFC side, Dallas has the best chance of successfully representing the old school league, with a 37.4% chance of victory if they make it. Green Bay is next with a 34% chance of victory. These compare with New England's odds of about 75%, and the Colts' 59% chance. In fact, all of the AFC teams have a better shot at winning the Super Bowl, largely because there's no chance that their opponent will be New England.

New England's overall 43.1% chance is almost three times the next best odds for any team. It's no secret that they're the favorite. If they win this week, they will already be a greater than 50/50 favorite to win the whole thing, even before the AFC championship game, and probably facing the #2 and #3 teams in the league in succession.

NFL probabilities - playoffs, conference champs, Super Bowl

A little NFL detour here, and a little late, since two of these games are over already and of course will affect the odds. But I wanted to publish the unadulterated odds for the final 12 teams before I update them this week for the final eight.

I use the pairwise-comparison method, which should be fairly accurate after 16 games each, yielding 256 game-to-game comparisons.

Clearly the odds are going to be a bit uninteresting because of Godzilla, aka New England, eating up the percentages. The NFL brackets are, of course, convoluted by the bracket-jumping ability of the wildcard teams, which makes it a real pain in the ass.

Wildcard games: AFC

Pittsburgh Steelers        48.8     San Diego Chargers         72.3
Jacksonville Jaguars       51.2     Tennessee Titans           27.7

Wildcard games: NFC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers       48.4     Seattle Seahawks           51.2
New York Giants            51.6     Washington Redskins        48.8

Team  odds to win:    wild card   1st round   conf. champ    Super Bowl
New England            100.0%       82.5%       61.0%          45.8%
Indianapolis           100.0%       61.6%       21.4%          12.7%
San Diego               72.3%       29.1%        9.0%           4.8%         
Pittsburgh              48.8%       10.0%        2.9%           1.2%
Jacksonville            51.2%       13.9%        5.0%           2.5%    
Tennessee               27.7%        2.9%        0.7%           0.2%

Dallas                 100.0%       67.4%       39.6%          14.5%
Green Bay              100.0%       68.1%       36.1%          12.5%
Seattle                 51.2%       16.8%        6.4%           1.4%
Tampa Bay               48.4%       14.0%        4.8%           1.0%
New York Giants         51.6%       17.1%        6.6%           1.6%
Washington              48.8%       16.6%        6.5%           1.8%

New England emerges with a not-quite-50% chance of winning it all, while the next best number is from Dallas at 14.5%, then the Colts and Packers are nearly tied for 4th most likely. After that it drops off to San Diego at under 5%, Jacksonville at 2 1/2, and the rest around 1% (except Tennessee, who is steered into facing New England if they win the wild card game).

A team's odds are better if they can hold off facing New England the longest, which is (one reason) why Tennessee fares so poorly and the Chargers do relatively well—if they win, they don't face New England right away. Although Indianapolis ranks #2 and beats Dallas head-to-head most of the time, Dallas' overall odds are higher because they have a better hope that someone can beat the Pats before the Super Bowl.

I will be glad when the wild card situation is over; working out the odds in a normal, stable bracket is much easier.

NFL Power Rating - week 15 - through 12/17/07

The 6-8 Eagles showed why they're in the top 10 with a win over Dallas, knocking the Cowboys to #3. Philadelphia might still have a slim chance of being a wild card. AFC teams are highlighted.

rnk Team                         rec     overall     Pts[rank]   W/L[rank]
1.  New England Patriots        14-0    41.24 [ 1]  22.15 [ 1]  19.08 [ 1]
2.  Indianapolis Colts          12-2    18.20 [ 2]  12.36 [ 2]   5.83 [ 3]
3.  Dallas Cowboys              12-2    18.02 [ 3]  11.77 [ 3]   6.25 [ 2]
4.  Green Bay Packers           12-2    16.07 [ 4]  10.96 [ 4]   5.10 [ 4]
5.  San Diego Chargers           9-5    10.88 [ 5]   8.68 [ 5]   2.20 [ 6]
6.  Jacksonville Jaguars        10-4     9.22 [ 6]   6.62 [ 7]   2.59 [ 5]
7.  Pittsburgh Steelers          9-5     8.05 [ 7]   6.88 [ 6]   1.16 [13]
8.  Minnesota Vikings            8-6     6.40 [ 8]   5.00 [ 8]   1.39 [ 9]
9.  Philadelphia Eagles          6-8     5.93 [ 9]   4.67 [ 9]   1.26 [10]
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         9-5     4.48 [10]   2.94 [10]   1.53 [ 8]
11. Seattle Seahawks             9-5     3.21 [11]   2.03 [11]   1.18 [12]
12. New York Giants              9-5     3.20 [12]   1.34 [13]   1.85 [ 7]
13. Washington Redskins          7-7     2.83 [13]   1.73 [12]   1.09 [15]
14. Cleveland Browns             9-5     0.77 [14]  -0.32 [14]   1.09 [14]
15. Tennessee Titans             8-6     0.37 [15]  -0.84 [15]   1.21 [11]
16. Chicago Bears                5-9    -0.01 [16]  -0.84 [16]   0.83 [16]
17. Houston Texans               7-7    -0.23 [17]  -1.03 [17]   0.79 [18]
18. New Orleans Saints           7-7    -1.42 [18]  -2.17 [18]   0.75 [19]
19. New York Jets                4-10   -1.95 [19]  -2.23 [19]   0.27 [27]
20. Cincinnati Bengals           5-9    -2.47 [20]  -2.81 [20]   0.33 [26]
21. Detroit Lions                6-8    -2.58 [21]  -3.42 [21]   0.83 [17]
22. Denver Broncos               6-8    -3.35 [22]  -4.03 [22]   0.67 [20]
23. Oakland Raiders              4-10   -4.18 [23]  -4.52 [23]   0.33 [25]
24. Buffalo Bills                6-8    -4.24 [24]  -4.78 [25]   0.54 [22]
25. Arizona Cardinals            6-8    -4.31 [25]  -4.76 [24]   0.45 [23]
26. Kansas City Chiefs           4-10   -5.03 [26]  -5.48 [26]   0.44 [24]
27. Baltimore Ravens             4-10   -6.72 [27]  -6.90 [27]   0.18 [30]
28. Carolina Panthers            6-8    -7.24 [28]  -7.80 [28]   0.55 [21]
29. Miami Dolphins               1-13   -8.16 [29]  -8.21 [29]   0.04 [32]
30. St. Louis Rams               3-11  -11.45 [30] -11.61 [30]   0.15 [31]
31. Atlanta Falcons              3-11  -11.96 [31] -12.17 [31]   0.20 [28]
32. San Francisco 49ers          4-10  -12.99 [32] -13.19 [32]   0.19 [29]

In other news, Miami won its first game and jumps all the way to #29, finally getting credit for its overall play rather than being burdened by its losses. They actually slipped a spot in the Points rating. Baltimore was the Dolphins best chance left for a win, as shown here, though Cincinnati was a good last-ditch chance.

Here are the offense and defense rankings:

Offense
rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  New England Patriots        14-0    22.15  38.38  16.22
2.  Dallas Cowboys              12-2    11.77  31.60  19.83
3.  Indianapolis Colts          12-2    12.36  28.91  16.55
4.  Green Bay Packers           12-2    10.96  28.42  17.46
5.  San Diego Chargers           9-5     8.68  26.25  17.57
6.  Cleveland Browns             9-5    -0.32  25.44  25.76
7.  Jacksonville Jaguars        10-4     6.62  24.87  18.25
8.  Cincinnati Bengals           5-9    -2.81  23.40  26.21
9.  New Orleans Saints           7-7    -2.17  23.12  25.29
10. Minnesota Vikings            8-6     5.00  23.07  18.06
11. Detroit Lions                6-8    -3.42  23.02  26.44
12. Houston Texans               7-7    -1.03  22.57  23.61
13. Arizona Cardinals            6-8    -4.76  22.14  26.90
14. Denver Broncos               6-8    -4.03  22.02  26.05
15. New York Giants              9-5     1.34  21.94  20.59
16. Pittsburgh Steelers          9-5     6.88  21.64  14.75
17. Seattle Seahawks             9-5     2.03  21.20  19.16
18. Philadelphia Eagles          6-8     4.67  21.00  16.33
19. Washington Redskins          7-7     1.73  20.14  18.41
20. Chicago Bears                5-9    -0.84  19.76  20.61
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers         9-5     2.94  19.33  16.38
22. Tennessee Titans             8-6    -0.84  19.06  19.91
23. New York Jets                4-10   -2.23  18.83  21.07
24. Oakland Raiders              4-10   -4.52  17.67  22.20
25. Miami Dolphins               1-13   -8.21  17.62  25.83
26. Baltimore Ravens             4-10   -6.90  15.66  22.56
27. Buffalo Bills                6-8    -4.78  14.87  19.65
28. Carolina Panthers            6-8    -7.80  14.71  22.52
29. St. Louis Rams               3-11  -11.61  14.31  25.92
30. Kansas City Chiefs           4-10   -5.48  14.13  19.62
31. Atlanta Falcons              3-11  -12.17  13.48  25.65
32. San Francisco 49ers          4-10  -13.19  11.63  24.82

Defense
rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  Pittsburgh Steelers          9-5     6.88  21.64  14.75
2.  New England Patriots        14-0    22.15  38.38  16.22
3.  Philadelphia Eagles          6-8     4.67  21.00  16.33
4.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers         9-5     2.94  19.33  16.38
5.  Indianapolis Colts          12-2    12.36  28.91  16.55
6.  Green Bay Packers           12-2    10.96  28.42  17.46
7.  San Diego Chargers           9-5     8.68  26.25  17.57
8.  Minnesota Vikings            8-6     5.00  23.07  18.06
9.  Jacksonville Jaguars        10-4     6.62  24.87  18.25
10. Washington Redskins          7-7     1.73  20.14  18.41
11. Seattle Seahawks             9-5     2.03  21.20  19.16
12. Kansas City Chiefs           4-10   -5.48  14.13  19.62
13. Buffalo Bills                6-8    -4.78  14.87  19.65
14. Dallas Cowboys              12-2    11.77  31.60  19.83
15. Tennessee Titans             8-6    -0.84  19.06  19.91
16. New York Giants              9-5     1.34  21.94  20.59
17. Chicago Bears                5-9    -0.84  19.76  20.61
18. New York Jets                4-10   -2.23  18.83  21.07
19. Oakland Raiders              4-10   -4.52  17.67  22.20
20. Carolina Panthers            6-8    -7.80  14.71  22.52
21. Baltimore Ravens             4-10   -6.90  15.66  22.56
22. Houston Texans               7-7    -1.03  22.57  23.61
23. San Francisco 49ers          4-10  -13.19  11.63  24.82
24. New Orleans Saints           7-7    -2.17  23.12  25.29
25. Atlanta Falcons              3-11  -12.17  13.48  25.65
26. Cleveland Browns             9-5    -0.32  25.44  25.76
27. Miami Dolphins               1-13   -8.21  17.62  25.83
28. St. Louis Rams               3-11  -11.61  14.31  25.92
29. Denver Broncos               6-8    -4.03  22.02  26.05
30. Cincinnati Bengals           5-9    -2.81  23.40  26.21
31. Detroit Lions                6-8    -3.42  23.02  26.44
32. Arizona Cardinals            6-8    -4.76  22.14  26.90

NFL Power Rating week 14 - through 12/10/2007

The Patriots reassert their dominance. Dallas takes over firm control as the #2 team, but it's quite a gulf. The Pats have beaten the #2, #3, and #5 teams. If they lose a game they'll still be #1.

rnk Team                         rec     overall     Pts[rank]   W/L[rank]
1.  New England Patriots         13-0    43.57 [ 1]  23.45 [ 1]  20.12 [ 1]
2.  Dallas Cowboys               12-1    22.72 [ 2]  13.11 [ 2]   9.60 [ 2]
3.  Indianapolis Colts           11-2    17.58 [ 3]  12.45 [ 3]   5.13 [ 3]
4.  Green Bay Packers            11-2    16.01 [ 4]  11.28 [ 4]   4.73 [ 4]
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers           9-4     9.41 [ 5]   7.96 [ 5]   1.45 [ 8]
6.  San Diego Chargers            8-5     8.73 [ 6]   6.81 [ 6]   1.92 [ 7]
7.  Jacksonville Jaguars          9-4     7.49 [ 7]   5.37 [ 8]   2.12 [ 5]
8.  Minnesota Vikings             7-6     6.60 [ 8]   5.40 [ 7]   1.20 [11]
9.  Philadelphia Eagles           5-8     4.94 [ 9]   4.28 [ 9]   0.65 [18]
10. New York Giants               9-4     4.68 [10]   2.58 [11]   2.10 [ 6]
11. Seattle Seahawks              9-4     4.16 [11]   2.74 [10]   1.41 [ 9]
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers          8-5     2.47 [12]   1.17 [12]   1.30 [10]
13. Washington Redskins           6-7     1.89 [13]   1.09 [13]   0.79 [17]
14. Cleveland Browns              8-5     0.85 [14]  -0.20 [14]   1.06 [12]
15. Chicago Bears                 5-8     0.36 [15]  -0.50 [15]   0.87 [15]
16. Detroit Lions                 6-7    -0.50 [16]  -1.38 [17]   0.87 [14]
17. Cincinnati Bengals            5-8    -0.77 [17]  -1.23 [16]   0.45 [24]
18. Tennessee Titans              7-6    -0.89 [18]  -1.95 [18]   1.05 [13]
19. Houston Texans                6-7    -2.16 [19]  -2.79 [19]   0.62 [20]
20. Denver Broncos                6-7    -2.18 [20]  -2.99 [21]   0.80 [16]
21. New York Jets                 4-9    -2.55 [21]  -2.89 [20]   0.33 [27]
22. New Orleans Saints            6-7    -2.57 [22]  -3.18 [22]   0.61 [21]
23. Buffalo Bills                 6-7    -3.53 [23]  -4.17 [23]   0.64 [19]
24. Arizona Cardinals             6-7    -4.00 [24]  -4.51 [24]   0.51 [22]
25. Oakland Raiders               4-9    -4.74 [25]  -5.10 [25]   0.36 [26]
26. Kansas City Chiefs            4-9    -4.75 [26]  -5.22 [26]   0.46 [23]
27. Baltimore Ravens              4-9    -5.90 [27]  -6.21 [27]   0.30 [28]
28. Carolina Panthers             5-8    -8.87 [28]  -9.26 [29]   0.39 [25]
29. Atlanta Falcons               3-10  -11.40 [29] -11.59 [30]   0.19 [29]
30. St. Louis Rams                3-10  -11.65 [30] -11.82 [31]   0.16 [30]
31. San Francisco 49ers           3-10  -14.01 [31] -14.17 [32]   0.16 [31]
32. Miami Dolphins                0-13  -22.47 [32]  -8.49 [28] -13.97 [32]

If Miami won a game, however, they would move out of the bottom spot with only one win. The Pats have the top offense and #2 defense, while Dallas has the #2 offense and an average defense.

rnk Team                         rec    margin  off    def
1.  New England Patriots         13-0    23.45  39.58  16.13
2.  Dallas Cowboys               12-1    13.11  33.41  20.30
3.  Indianapolis Colts           11-2    12.45  29.50  17.05
4.  Green Bay Packers            11-2    11.28  28.39  17.10
5.  Pittsburgh Steelers           9-4     7.96  21.25  13.28
6.  San Diego Chargers            8-5     6.81  24.90  18.09
7.  Minnesota Vikings             7-6     5.40  23.66  18.26
8.  Jacksonville Jaguars          9-4     5.37  23.76  18.39
9.  Philadelphia Eagles           5-8     4.28  21.99  17.71
10. Seattle Seahawks              9-4     2.74  22.00  19.25
11. New York Giants               9-4     2.58  22.63  20.05
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers          8-5     1.17  18.36  17.18
13. Washington Redskins           6-7     1.09  19.90  18.80
14. Cleveland Browns              8-5    -0.20  27.03  27.24
15. Chicago Bears                 5-8    -0.50  20.24  20.74
16. Cincinnati Bengals            5-8    -1.23  24.72  25.95
17. Detroit Lions                 6-7    -1.38  23.36  24.74
18. Tennessee Titans              7-6    -1.95  18.07  20.03
19. Houston Texans                6-7    -2.79  22.18  24.97
20. New York Jets                 4-9    -2.89  19.08  21.98
21. Denver Broncos                6-7    -2.99  23.13  26.13
22. New Orleans Saints            6-7    -3.18  22.71  25.90
23. Buffalo Bills                 6-7    -4.17  16.54  20.72
24. Arizona Cardinals             6-7    -4.51  22.26  26.78
25. Oakland Raiders               4-9    -5.10  17.83  22.94
26. Kansas City Chiefs            4-9    -5.22  13.78  19.00
27. Baltimore Ravens              4-9    -6.21  15.96  22.18
28. Miami Dolphins                0-13   -8.49  17.26  25.75
29. Carolina Panthers             5-8    -9.26  14.69  23.95
30. Atlanta Falcons               3-10  -11.59  13.52  25.12
31. St. Louis Rams                3-10  -11.82  13.86  25.68
32. San Francisco 49ers           3-10  -14.17  11.75  25.92

Week 14: Patriots lose, Dolphins win?

This week the Patriots host Pittsburgh's #1 defense, and the Dolphins travel to Buffalo. Could this be the week both lose the "0" in their record?

For the Pats, it's been a rough last few weeks, where they almost lost two games. The first, a 31-28 squeaker against Philadelphia, seemed like the odds catching up to them; not all games can be blowouts, and Philly was (and still is) much better than their record. But last week's very, very close call against Baltimore revealed a vulnerable team. In all, 3 of the Pats' last 4 wins have been by 4 points or less. That's after winning their first eight games by over 25 points on average. Are the Pats losing steam, and headed for a fall, maybe even this week?

The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been on the wrong side of the close games—they've lost six games by a field goal. SIX. This implies that they are much better than their record; with a little luck they're 6-6 and still in the playoff hunt. But the grind of a winless season may be taking its toll. Last week's game against the Jets was one of their best opportunities for a win, and it wasn't even close with New York smothering them 40-13 in Miami. Does this mean they might squander their remaining opportunities, such as this week at Buffalo?

Patriots vs. Steelers: The Steelers have the best defense in the league. You have to figure that if Philadelphia and Baltimore can slow down New Enland, so can the Steelers. The question is whether their offense can put up enough points. But more important than any of this is psychology.

A perfect record tends to instill confidence and overconfidence; one keeps a team winning, the other makes it vulnerable to losing. The 13th game of a season is a perfect time for laziness and overconfidence to set in: a 12-0 team has proven itself time and again, but it's not quite at the home stretch of going undefeated. The 1985 Chicago Bears lost their only game on the 13th week.

To lose, the Patriots probably have to be somewhat overconfident. The last two weeks—especially last week—should have given them a wake-up call. So Pittsburgh can't really count on that. All other things being equal, the Steelers have about a 25% chance of upsetting the Patriots.

Dolphins vs. Buffalo: The Dolphins are not, as some have argued recently, the worst team in NFL history. Unless by "worst" you mean, "the best team that's lost six games by a field goal." They might be the unluckiest team ever. And their mental state can't be very good going into Buffalo. But they are roughly as good as the Bills, as their 13-10 loss in Miami showed. It's going to be difficult for them to believe they can pull off the road win, but they can—if they can keep their hopes up and, for a change, have a little luck come their way instead of to their opponent. Miami has almost a 50/50 shot at winning; if they get blown out in this game, it's a sure sign that they've given up.

Which brings us to the question: can they win a game over the rest of the season? And for that matter, will the Pats go undefeated this year? I visited these topics a month ago, so it's time for an update, using the pairwise-comparison method.

First, New England's remaining schedule:

Team               odds NE win
Pittsburgh            77.77%
New York Jets         94.44%
Miami                 97.22%
at New York Giants    88.88%

Total odds of 16-0    63.48%

Amazingly, the Patriots show lower odds now, at 12-0, than they did at 9-0. Then, their odds were a staggering 74.5%. At that point they hadn't shown any weakness, and both the Jets and Miami games registered a 100% chance of success. Now, each game is tagged as riskier to them than before. Adding in the (projected) playoff opponents:

Team               odds NE win
San Diego             82.63%
Indianapolis          74.30%
Dallas                70.83%

Total odds of 19-0    27.60%

Overall the Pats show a much-reduced chance of going 19-0 as well, from the previous near-50% to just over 25%. Still, they will be heavily favored in each individual game as long as their season lasts.

The Dolphins were earlier projected to finish 3-13; to do so now, they'd have to go 3-1, which isn't likely at this point. But they still have a few good chances to win left on their schedule.

Opponent        % Dolphins win 
at Buffalo         45.83%
Baltimore          54.86%
at New England      2.77%
Cincinnati         39.58%

Favored:   1-3 (1-15)
Projected: 1-3 (1-15)

Odds of winning 1+ games: 85.6%

A month ago, with eight games remaining, the Dolphins had a 99.5% chance of winning at least one game. With four of those opportunities gone, that chance is down to 85.6%—still very good. But they lost two games they were favored to win, and another one of those favored games has since turned into a projected loss. Instead of being projected at 3-13, they figure to finish 1-15. Better than 0-16, but without much margin for error if they want to a winless year. And the Dolphins have been full of error this season.

On the bright side, 3 of the 4 remaining games are still winnable. Aside from the home game vs. Baltimore, the final game against Cincinnati would be a great last chance if necessary at that time. If the Dolphins get just one win—today, for example, against Buffalo—it could take the proverbial monkey off their back and they might cruise to 2 or 3 wins.

The game at New England even shows a small chance for a win, whereas before the possibility was discounted. That, of course, would be the ultimate irony: the 0-13 team beating the 13-0 team, both zeroes being eliminated in one swoop. But let's be realistic, the Dolphins aren't going to win at New England. After all, this isn't college football, right?