SportsRatings: College Football

2022 Guaranteed Rate Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Oklahoma State vs. Wisconsin

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

Guaranteed Rate Bowl in Phoenix, AZ
When: Tuesday, December 27 at 10:15 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-5) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (6-6)

Two Power Five title hopefuls that fell way short. It's unclear if either team wants to win this bowl game.

Vegas line/spread: Wisconsin by 3 1/2 (over/under 44.5)

Most games involving Wisconsin have low totals, but this is extra low—possibly because both offenses have been sucked into the transfer portal. The line and expected score have been pretty steady, up from 3 and 43 early.

Strength power rating:    #28 Wisconsin 28,   #39 Oklahoma St 25    

Best/Worst removed: Wisconsin 27-26

Turnover corrected: Wisconsin 27-27

Strength agrees with Vegas—almost. It's really about 2.5 points and it rounds to 3 to make a proper score. When the best and worst game ratings are tossed, it narrows to a point, and if we correct for turnovers it also contracts, this time to about a half a point. Call it a Wisconsin overtime win. Either way we can see with some adjustments that the game becomes a tossup.

What we don't have is the really low total, probably a consequence of players on offense missing the bowl. We'll take a look.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3 Spread
Wisconsin	54%	46.5%
Oklahoma St	46%	53.5%

Although the Strength power rating favors the Badgers by 3, matching the oddsmakers, they don't win the majority of game-comparisons against a 3 point spread—Oklahoma State does. Normally you'd expect this situation to end up 50/50, but in this case the teams have outliers that make the game comparisons stray from the mean. Here the 50/50 split mark is at 1.5 points or 2 points, not 3.

When Oklahoma St has the ball

Oklahoma St scoring offense(adj): #34	Wisconsin scoring defense(adj): #23
Oklahoma St rushing offense(raw): #93	Wisconsin rushing defense(raw): #12
Oklahoma St passing offense(raw): #20	Wisconsin passing defense(raw): #29

A good matchup here with borderline top 25 offense and defense. Oklahoma State's schedule was a bit tougher so the run/pass matchups are better on their side than they would seem, but overall they won't have much luck running the ball but should have decent success passing. That's without the transfer/opt-out players, so all bets are off for what really happens.

Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders (2,642 yards, 17:9, #2 w/391 rush) has entered the transfer portal, along with leading rusher Dominic Richardson (543 yards). That means their top two rushers and #1 QB are gone. Sanders' backups had 729 yards and a 5:7 ratio. Starting to see why the game is so low scoring?

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin scoring offense(adj): #46	Oklahoma St scoring defense(adj): #44
Wisconsin rushing offense(raw): #53	Oklahoma St rushing defense(raw): #96
Wisconsin passing offense(raw): #112	Oklahoma St passing defense(raw): #113

It's pretty even on this side, though Wisconsin's running game could exploit the Cowboys a bit here. But once again let's take a look at the transfer portal: QB Graham Mertz (2,136 yards, 19:10) is gone, along with a trio of part-time starters on the offensive line. Mertz's backups combine for around 100 yards and 1 touchdown. With the passing game shot and the running game in danger due to the offensive line, the Badger offense is in trouble, though no actual OL starters or RBs have opted out yet (top RB Braelon Allen is questionable, which usually means they'll play). Update: Allen will play.

There is some good news for Wisconsin though—some defensive players for the Cowboys have opted out, too, including leading tackler Mason Cobb (LB).

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Oklahoma St: #15    Wisconsin: #113

Oklahoma State's special teams outclasses Wisconsin's by quite a bit. In a game where starters on offense and defense are dropping like flies into the transfer portal, maybe the untouches special teams units will carry the day.

 

Oklahoma St's season (7-5) • SOS: #13

Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-2

1.  Central Michigan  58-44
2.  Arizona St  34-17
3.  Arkansas-Pine Bluff  63-7
4. @Baylor  36-25
5.  Texas Tech  41-31
6. @#3 TCU  40-43 2OT
7.  #20 Texas  41-34
8. @#9 Kansas St  0-48
9. @Kansas  16-37
10.  Iowa St  20-14
11. @Oklahoma  13-28
12. West Virginia  19-24
    

Oklahoma State had hopes at 5-0 and even at 6-1 for a national title or at least a Big Twelve title. Losing four of their last five put an end to that and the player exodus started. Losing in double-overtime to Playoff-bound TCU was no shame, but falling 48-0 at Kansas State—even if they did win the Big Twelve—was an embarrassment that hung over to the Kansas loss. They barely edged Iowa State before losing to Oklahoma and West Virginia to just get things over.

Are they still there, at the let's-just-get-this-over-with stage? Judging by the players leaving, they couldn't even wait for that stage.

 

Wisconsin's season (6-6) • SOS: #35

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1

1.  Illinois St  38-0
2.  Washington St  14-17
3.  New Mexico St  66-7
4. @#4 Ohio State  21-52
5.  Illinois  10-34
6. @Northwestern  42-7
7. @Michigan St  34-28 2OT
8.  Purdue  35-24
9.  Maryland  23-10
10. @Iowa  10-24
11. @Nebraska  15-14
12.  Minnesota  16-23
    

Wisconsin's big dreams ended well before Oklahoma State's, but they still had a shot at the Big Ten title all the way to near the end. The Badgers defense shined in their 38-0 opener but when they faced a real team their offense didn't work. The New Mexico State win looks better in retrospect but big losses to Ohio State (52-21) and Illinois (34-10) sealed the fate of Paul Chryst, even if it was a shock that Wisconsin would take action mid-season. Play improved—or the schedule got easier for a while—and Wisconsin was in the run for the Big Ten West (of course, everyone is always in the run for the Big Ten West) but the Badgers lost two of their last three, a 1-point win over Nebraska being the win that made them bowl eligible.

The Badgers' player exodus started earlier, just after the Paul Chryst firing, and the bowl opt-outs accumulated.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

There are a lot. For Wisconsin:

• Starting QB Graham Mertz has entered the transfer portal
• part-time starting OLs Logan Brown and Michael Furtney are transferring, and Tyler Beach is probably opting out Update: Beach is playing
• Starting RB Braelon Allen is questionable Update: Allen is playing

For Oklahoma State:

• Starting QB Spencer Sanders is transferring
• Leading rusher Dominic Richardson, transfer
• Starting LB and leading tackler Mason Cobb, transfer
• Starting DE Tyler Lacy, opt-out

There are others but those are the important parts.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Wisconsin is the favorite. Seems pretty random at this point though. 
• Location: Phoenix Arizona is a neutral location, closer to Oklahoma State but Wisconsin travels notoriously well. Will they this time when the players won't even show up?
• Coaching: Wisconsin's Paul Chryst was fired, but that seems like ancient history now. But it does leave Wisconsin with an interim coach Jim Leonard leading them against Mike Gundy who is in his 18th season.
• Motivation: Is there any for either team? That's the real question. Wisconsin was 8-4 last year and had high expectations this season. Ditto for Ok State who was 11-2 last year.
• Momentum: Both teams lost momentum; for Wisconsin it was early, for Oklahoma State it was late.

It's a sad sad situation, to quote Elton John. Neither team wants to be here, all their players are bolting, their seasons are both in a shambles, and it's the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, ffs.

Final analysis

The reason Wisconsin is the favorite? Because losing their QB hurts them a lot less since they have a ground game, though they do lose some pieces of their offensive line. Oklahoma State also loses their top LB and another starter on defense which helps the Badgers. This game is really coming down to attrition, and who has the best pieces left.

This is another game where all the power ratings and analysis end up meaningless, unless you track individual players and their contribution to the team like in basketball. Wisconsin should have as close to their starting O-line as they normally have, and they'll find a QB to hand off the ball. What will Oklahoma State find? We saw before that when a pass-centric team loses their QB before the bowl game it's about a 16 1/2 point swing (from the power rating estimate). This year will provide a few examples of non-pass-centric teams losing their QB, such as Florida and now Wisconsin. But we think the effect will be much less, maybe half or smaller. 

Braelon Allen is playing, though he may have given Oklahoma State some bulletin board material with his assertion that game film show Oklahoma State's run defense is bad and susceptible to long runs. The Badgers are missing two starting offensive lineman, but Oklahoma State is missing two key defensive starters, so maybe he's right. If the Cowboys weren't stumbling into the bowl game I think they'd take that as a challenge; as it is, they might not have the fight in them to take offense.

So Wisconsin can field a ground game against Oklahoma State's depleted defense, while the Cowboys can try out their backup QBs to face Wisconsin defense, which is quite good against the pass anyway. On paper it like the Badgers are on their way to a win.

At least as far as we can guess. And at this point, it's really a guess. Your mileage may vary. But let's face it Oklahoma State was a pretty bad team over the last five games [Update] and recent developments (more attrition on Oklahoma State's side, and Wisconsin keeping more of their O-line and RB squad intact) favor Wisconsin even more. I won't modify the pick but that reinforces it.

Prediction:  Wisconsin 24, Oklahoma State 13

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

 

2022 Holiday Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Oregon vs. North Carolina

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

Holiday Bowl in San Diego, Ca
When: Wednesday, December 28 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: Fox

#15 Oregon Ducks (9-3) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-4)

Powre Five football, Pac-12 vs. the ACC.

Vegas line/spread: Oregon by 13 (over/under 75.5)

Oregon is the biggest favorite in the bowl season by quite a bit, will they live up to it? So far the line has held pretty steady, down a bit from two touchdowns early, while the over/under has steadily moved up a total of 5 1/2 points by game day. Seems the public senses a lot of scoring from these offenses.

Strength power rating:   #14 Oregon 46,   #59 North Carolina 33    

Best/Worst removed: Oregon 47-32

Turnover corrected: Oregon 44-34

Our Strength power rating concurs with the oddsmakers, as it normally does but in this case it's pretty much on the dot—or very close, it's closer to 13 points than 14 but we could round the scores either way. When each teams high and low game rating is thrown out Oregon is a 15 point favorite (due to dumping the opener against Georgia). In a different "correction" we remove the random influence of turnovers which have benefitted Oregon a lot; this narrows the spread to 10 points.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -14 Spread
Oregon	83%	51.3%
North Carolina	17%	48.7%

It all comes down to the distribution of game scores. Our game-comparison system heavily favors Oregon, of course, since it's based on the Strength power rating. Against the 14 point spread, if games had no real outliers, you'd expect Oregon to fall a bit short since Strength has Oregon by 13. Instead, the tipping point is 15 points for a 50/50 split and they cover in a majority—barely—against a two-touchdown spread. A lot of this is due to the Georgia game, the big outlier in Oregon's season.

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon scoring offense(adj): #9	North Carolina scoring defense(adj): #98
Oregon rushing offense(raw): #14	North Carolina rushing defense(raw): #83
Oregon passing offense(raw): #15	North Carolina passing defense(raw): #121

Oregon's offense has a huge edge here as a top ten offense going up against a defense that is barely in the top 100. The Ducks are pretty balanced. Bo Nix has been a success for the Ducks, with 3,389 yards and 27 TDs with just 6 picks. He's also run for over 500 net yards. UNC's defense leaves a lot to be desired and they'll have their hands full, though they're used to that as the UNC offense runs at breakneck speed, leaving the defense to fend for themselves.

Worse, the Tar Heels will be without three starting defensive backs. You can't get much worse than #121 but they definitely will be approaching #131 on bowl day.

When North Carolina has the ball

North Carolina scoring offense(adj): #27	Oregon scoring defense(adj): #42
North Carolina rushing offense(raw): #63	Oregon rushing defense(raw): #32
North Carolina passing offense(raw): #9	Oregon passing defense(raw): #106

North Carolina's offense is solid but not great; they score a lot because they run fast, creating a lot of drives per game. Oregon's defense is middling for the Power Five, so the Tar Heels will be able to score. UNC is a pass-centric team under QB Drake Maye (4,115 yards, 35: 7). Like Nix he's a runner, with over 650 net yards on the ground (#1 on the team).

The Ducks have a pass defense problem that the Tar Heels can exploit for sure, and on top of that three defensive starters are opting out of the bowl game or transferring, making things even worse.

On the other hand, UNC top receiver Josh Downs has over 1,000 yards but he's opting out of the bowl game himself; Maye has several other targets but Downs has twice as many catches as the next guy.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Oregon: #95    North Carolina: #22

North Carolina's special teams outrank Oregons which could help them close the gap.

 

Oregon's season (9-3) • SOS: #34

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-3

1. @#1 Georgia  3-49
2. Eastern Washington  70-14
3. Brigham Young  41-20
4. @Washington St  44-41
5. Stanford  45-27
6. @Arizona  49-22
7. #18 UCLA  45-30
8. @California  42-24
9. @Colorado  49-10
10. #12 Washington  34-37
11. #8 Utah  20-17
12. @#14 Oregon St  34-38 
    

Oregon's season started in the worst possible way, a 49-3 beatdown vs. Georgia in Atlanta. They took out their frustrations on Eastern Washington and didn't look back, racking up 8 straight wins before a stunning home loss to Washington broke the streak. After beating top ten Utah they had the path to the Pac-12 title game clear but fell to rival Oregon State. In all they played 5 top 25 teams and went 2-3, and were 4-3 against the bowl field. Other than the first game they didn't have a terrible outing, but the 1-2 finish is a concern.

North Carolina's season (9-4) • SOS: #67

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-3

1.  Florida A&M  56-24
2. @Appalachian St  63-61
3. @Georgia St  35-28
4.  #21 Notre Dame  32-45
5.  Virginia Tech  41-10
6. @Miami FL  27-24
7. @Duke  38-35
8.  Pittsburgh  42-24
9. @Virginia  31-28
10. @Wake Forest  36-34
11.  Georgia Tech  17-21
12.  #23 North Carolina St  27-30 2OT
13. =#7 Clemson  10-39
    

North Carolina was a team that snuck up on people this year. The only news they made with their first three tepid wins was the 63-61 shootout with Appalachian State, and the loss to Notre Dame took them off the radar. The Tar Heels quietly assembled a 6-game winning streak though and were 9-1 with Playoff hopes still alive. The shocking Georgia Tech home loss took care of that, and they lost in two overtimes to rival NC State. Clemson added the injury to the insult with a 39-10 drubbing. A great season, no doubt, but even when they were winning it was clear the defense was a problem that would catch up to them.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

This game is another one filled to the brim with opt-outs and transfer portal players. I list only the major players (starters and key backups). First UNC:

• Leading receiver Josh Downs (1,042 yards, 11 TDs)
• Starting CB Storm Duck (3 INT)
• Starting CB Tony Grimes
• Starting DB Cam'Ron Kelly

And for the Ducks:

• #4 receiver Dont'e Thornton (366 yds)
• Starting DB Christian Gonzales (4 int)
• Starting LB Noah Sewell
• Starting LB DJ Johnson
• backup LB Justin Flowe
• backup LB Jackson LaDuke

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Oregon has become a huge favorite, probably due to the opt-out situation which hit UNC harder. But even before that the Ducks were about a 10 point favorite. Will they get overconfident? Will UNC feel disrespected? Who knows what goes on in players minds when much of their team is entering the transfer portal or opting out.
• Location: San Diego is obviously a neutral field location but Oregon is at least in the same time zone wheres North Carolina is three time zones away. I'd use this as a tiebreaker in a dead even game maybe, nothing more.
• Coaching: No head coach changes, though Oregon's OC Kenny Dillingham was hired as ASU's head coach. And speaking of coaching, doesn't it seems more likely that Mack Brown knows how to motivate a team in a bowl game than first-year Oregon coach Dan Lanning? Or is Lanning's youth a positive here?
• Motivation: Oregon was 10-2 at this point last year but played for the Pac-12 title. Whenever players bolt, you have to question the overall team's commitment to the bowl game. For North Carolina, they improved greatly on their 6-6 season last year but they have even more players bolting. 
• Momentum: Neither team has momentum and that's adding to the lack of motivation. Both not long ago were thinking of bigger things than the Holiday Bowl but late losses scrubbed those plans. 

North Carolina played worse than Oregon and lost all three games, but Oregon's general expectations are higher so losing two of the three at the end—taking them out of the national title picture, then the Pac-12 title picture—hits harder. A win over Oregon might mean something for North Carolina but the converse means nothing to Oregon.

Final analysis

Oregon's offense should do well both running and passing the ball. North Carolina's offense has to pass, partly because that's what they're good at but also it's what Oregon isn't good at defending. That does leave Oregon a chance to bottle up that opening, if they can get a sustained pass rush and disrupt UNC QB Drake Maye. North Carolina does give up around 3 sacks per game, mostly because they pass so often but it's still a lot. Unfortunately for the Ducks they're #123 in sacks so it's unlikely they can use the pressure route to cripple the Tar Heel passing game.

Who got the worst of the opt-outs and transfers? Probably North Carolina, as they lost their leading receiver and three defensive starters, while Oregon lost their #4 receiver and two (now three) defensive starters (plus a few more backups we didn't list). The list might still grow so we'll update as needed, but right now it looks like the offenses might get a boost. Both teams will still be pass-happy, maybe both missing a target, but also with defenders missing on the other side. Oregon's LB situation looks pretty dim now with two starters and two 2nd-stringers out. 

So what we end up with is a shootout. North Carolina thrives on shootouts. With neither team getting many stops it could be whoever has the ball last. North Carolina will try to play very fast and Oregon's defense will tire. North Carolina's defense always plays tired. Oregon's defense is a lot better, the whole team is a lot better, but they stepped down from the Playoff to the Pac-12 title to the Holiday Bowl against North Carolina, a team more famous for basketball, and they're about two-touchdown favorites and they're thinking this is going to be easy even without all their players opting out. North Carolina will just play its game, and all their players are opting out too which results in enough chaos for a North Carolina upset win.

Prediction:  North Carolina 45,  Oregon 42

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

 

2022 Birmingham Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, AL
When: Tuesday, December 27 at 6:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN

East Carolina Pirates (7-5) vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-3)

The two lesser-known Carolinas clash (East Carolina is in North Carolina; Coastal Carolina is in South Carolina). For the record a Chanticleer is either a rooster or a musical ensemble. In Coastal Carolina's case it refers to Chaucer, specifically the tale of the Chanticleer and the Fox, so a rooster it is.

Vegas line/spread: East Carolina by 7 (over/under 65.5)

Another big double-digit point spread, let's see if its justified. Update: the line has fallen from 10 1/2 to 7 before game day, the o/u way up from 59.5

Strength power rating:   #60 East Carolina 34,   #102 Coastal Carolina 25    

Best/Worst removed: East Carolina 34-25

Turnover corrected: East Carolina 33-25

Via our Strength power rating we get close to 10 points but not quite there. Still, it's very close, though it narrows if we change the sample to eliminate the extremes, or if we correct for random turnovers.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -10.5 Spread
East Carolina	69%	44.4%
Coastal Carolina	31%	55.6%

The Strength power rating favors East Carolina by 9, so it makes sense that the game-comparisons fall to their favor, but not quite against a 10 1/2 point spread.

When East Carolina has the ball

E Carolina scoring offense(adj): #59	Coastal Carolina scoring defense(adj): #110
E Carolina rushing offense(raw): #55	Coastal Carolina rushing defense(raw): #38
E Carolina passing offense(raw): #16	Coastal Carolina pass defense(raw): #124

Here's why the Pirates are a big favorite: Coastal Carolina sucks on defense. East Carolina is only average for the FBS but that should be enough to handle the Chanticleer defense. The run/pass breakdowns aren't too relevant because the teams play a very disparate schedule, but they show the focus of each team. That is, East Carolina is a passing team, and Coastal Carolina gives up a ton of passing yards. That makes things look even worse for Coastal. Pirate QB Holton Ahlers has 3,408 yards and a solid 23:5 ratio, with 1,000 yard receiver Isaiah Winstead his top target. They're missing their #3 receiver but probably can get by against the Chanticleer pass D.

When Coastal Carolina has the ball

Coastal Carolina scoring offense(adj): #65	E Carolina scoring defense(adj): #65
Coastal Carolina rushing offense(raw): #59	E Carolina rushing defense(raw): #18
Coastal Carolina passing offense(raw): #52	E Carolina pass defense(raw): #131

This matchup is dead even when corrected for schedule strength. The breakdown for East Carolina's defense on rushing and passing yards gives Coastal Carolina a good idea of where to apply their balanced offense—passing the ball against arguably the worst passing defense in the country. QB Grayson McCall has 2,633 yards and a great 24:2 ratio. He missed the Southern Miss and James Madison games and the team scored just 26 and 7 points in those, but he's back now.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): East Carolina: #122    Coastal Carolina: #103

Neither teams plays great special teams according to the FPI's numbers.

 

East Carolina's season (7-5) • SOS: #75

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1.  #23 North Carolina St  20-21
2.  Old Dominion  39-21
3.  Campbell  49-10
4.  Navy  20-23 2OT
5. @South Florida  48-28
6. @#16 Tulane  9-24
7.  Memphis  47-45 4OT
8.  Central Florida  34-13
9. @Brigham Young  27-24
10. @Cincinnati  25-27
11.  Houston  3-42
12. @Temple  49-46
    

East Carolina played good, consistent football win or lose—until the Houston game where the team fell apart, losing 42-3. They rebounded to outlast Temple but where did that big loss come from? Just one of those things I guess, and possibly due more to Houston than the Pirates. Their Temple win was their 2nd worst performance but it wasn't close to as bad and they needed a win to end the season, to get rid of the stench of the Houston game.

 

Coastal Carolina's season (9-3) • SOS: #127

Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1

1.  Army  38-28
2.  Gardner-Webb  31-27
3.  Buffalo  38-26
4. @Georgia St  41-24
5.  Georgia Southern  34-30
6. @Louisiana-Monroe  28-21
7.  Old Dominion  21-49
8. @Marshall  24-13
9.  Appalachian St  35-28
10.  Southern Miss  26-23
11. @James Madison  7-47
12. @#24 Troy  26-45
    

Coastal Carolina rushed to six wins and looked like the potential Group of Five New Year's Day rep—but then they ran into Old Dominion and lost at home 49-21. The Monarchs didn't even turn out to be a good team, going 3-9. How does this sort of thing happen? Somehow QB Grayson McCall went 26 of 34 and 3:0 for an 80.8 QBR and they still lost by 35 points. The next three games were fine, all big wins over bowl teams, but they they hit the skids again against James Madison. This time McCall was out and the offense was as much to blame as the defense. You can't really blame a loss to Committee-ranked Troy but it wasn't a great effort either, even with McCall back as he was still hobbled by injury. So you can blame his injury for the last two losses, but not the Old Dominion loss where he played his best game.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

Tight end Ryan Jones (#3 receiver with 413 yards) is out for East Carolina. For Coastal Carolina, star center Willie Lampkin is in the transfer portal. So is QB Grayson McCall, but he's playing in the bowl game.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: East Carolina a heavy favorite, could they get overconfident? Probably not to a 9-3 team. If anything Coastal might feel a bit insulted.
• Location: Birmingham is about the same distance from both teams. 
• Coaching: Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell resigned to take the job at Liberty. Is that really an upgrade?
• Motivation: Coaching aside, Coastal Carolina did about the same as last year, 9-3 instead of 10-2, while East Carolina remained 7-5 but didn't play in a bowl last year. Slight advantage East Carolina.
• Momentum: Neither team has much momentum after losing two of three (East) and their last two (Coastal). At least the Pirates got the bad taste of losing out of their mouths.

If I were Coastal Carolina I'd be pissed that the coach left for Liberty. Not Auburn, not Nebraska—Liberty. That's a lateral move at best. DC Chad Staggs will coach the team in the bowl game. Really their defensive coordinator? This is a bad development in every way.

Final analysis

It's interesting that both these teams had one abysmal game; it shows why it can happen in a bowl game, too, after a season of consistency. Particularly for East Carolina, all their other games were at least decent. Hopefully neither team repeats that performance in the bowl, and we're not counting on anything like that happening for our forecast.

It's looking pretty straightforward really. The numbers say the spread is about right, and that's without accounting for Coastal Carolina losing their coach to an football team with no conference (Liberty is moving to C-USA next year). Also their center was a star of the team and he won't be playing.

There's no way I'm taking the Chanticleers to win this game, but they can keep it close by scoring on East Carolina's awful pass defense. The players aren't bolting for the exits so far, so maybe they'll try to win it for themselves. I don't have great confidence in their defensive coordinator as bowl coach, however, and one way or another they lose. But big or small? The spread seems about right on this one for two teams limping into the bowl season. I see a lot of scoring on each team's defensive weaknesses all game long.

Update: With the line dropping from ECU -10.5 to ECU -8, they've matched our initial spread of ECU 45-37. So to get it off the line I'm moving to the 9-point spread forecast by our power rating. Update: Now it's down to 7, so our original pick is ok but we'll leave it as is since the line might move again. Basically we agree with the line, taking ECar but not by a huge amount. The range that the line has moved is exactly where I expect the game to be, 7-10 points, making this a tough call vs. the spread.

Prediction:  East Carolina 46, Coastal Carolina 37

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

 

2022 First Responder Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Memphis vs. Utah State

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

First Responder Bowl in Dallas, TX
When: Tuesday, December 27 at 3:15 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Memphis Tigers (6-6) vs. Utah State Aggies (6-6)

Yet another 6-6 bowl game, how many of these are there anyway? (Answer: 5 that are strictly between two 6-6 teams).

Vegas line/spread: Memphis by 7 (over/under 57.5)

Memphis is a pretty clear favorite, breaking the touchdown barrier in the early line but down to 7 lately. The over/under is down from 62.5 early.

Strength power rating:   #50 Memphis 39,   #139 Utah State 19    

Best/Worst removed: Memphis 39-19

Turnover corrected: Memphis 37-21

A pretty huge spread from the Strength power rating, 20 points, dwarfing the oddsmakers one-touchdown call. It narrows a bit when corrected for the oversized influence of turnovers (down to 16 points) but is still huge. Obviously this discrepancy requires further investigation.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7.5 Spread
Memphis	92%	83%
Utah St	8%	17%

There's no two ways about it, our power rating really likes Memphis here, giving them the win over 90% of the time and beating the spread 5 out of 6 game comparisons. This is the biggest blowout on paper of the bowl season—before looking at other factors, of course. There's probably a reason the oddsmakers aren't quite as sure about this game.

When Memphis has the ball

Memphis scoring offense(adj): #47	Utah St scoring defense(adj): #116
Memphis rushing offense(raw): #81	Utah St rushing defense(raw): #119
Memphis passing offense(raw): #22	Utah St passing defense(raw): #25

Here's a big reason that our power rating favors Memphis so heavily: Utah State's terrible defense. Memphis has a decent offense but they should fire on all cylinders against the Aggies' paper defense. Utah State's rush defense is so bad that the pass-centric Tigers can probably have success there. As for the passing game, Utah State's top 25 ranking is unadjusted, of course, and just reflects the fact that teams don't pass on them since running the ball is so easy. Memphis QB Seth Henigan has 3,287 yards and a 19:8 ratio. The Aggies do have a couple of safeties with multiple interceptions, so it's not like the pass defense is actually bad, just not tested as often as their rush D.

When Utah St has the ball

Utah St scoring offense(adj): #84	Memphis scoring defense(adj): #64
Utah St rushing offense(raw): #58	Memphis rushing defense(raw): #26
Utah St passing offense(raw): #105	Memphis passing defense(raw): #98

Utah State's offense isn't terrible and Memphis' defense isn't great, but the Tigers will clearly slow the Aggies down a lot more than the other way around. When it comes to comparing rush/pass offense and defense, the teams have about the same level of schedule and the numbers line up with the adjusted scoring numbers. So we can say that Memphis has a solid rush defense, probably capable of handling Utah State's run game why Calvin Tyler Jr has over 1,000 yards for the season. The Aggies don't pass much which is fine with Memphis.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Memphis: #73    Utah St: #14

If Utah State needs a tactic to keep things close, special teams play can help. Safety Ike Larsen has blocked three kicks this season.

 

Memphis's season (6-6) • SOS: #72

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-6
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. @#22 Mississippi St  23-49
2. @Navy  37-13
3.  Arkansas St  44-32
4.  North Texas  44-34
5.  Temple  24- 3
6.  Houston  32-33
7. @East Carolina  45-47 4OT
8. @#16 Tulane  28-38
9.  Central Florida  28-35
10.  Tulsa  26-10
11.  North Alabama  59-0
12. @SMU  31-34
    

Memphis looks like one of the best 6-6 teams around—certainly one of the most consistent. Is there any difference in play between their four-game win streak and the following 4-game losing streak? In fact all of their losses except maybe Mississippi State in the opener were worthy efforts, and all to bowl teams. In fact they won all their games by at least 10 points and had 4 losses within a touchdown...this 6-6 team is a few ball bounces away from 10-2.

 

Utah St's season (6-6) • SOS: #81

Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1

1.  Connecticut  31-20
2. @#5 Alabama  0-55
3.  Weber St  7-35
4.  UNLV  24-34
5. @Brigham Young  26-38
6.  Air Force  34-27
7. @Colorado St  17-13
8. @Wyoming  14-28
9.  New Mexico  27-10
10. @Hawai`i  41-34
11.  San Jose St  35-31
12. @Boise St  23-42
    

Utah State was pretty consistently bad but still managed to beat three bowl teams, a good demonstration of how bad many bowl teams are in the 40+ bowl game era. UConn, for example, made a bowl this year. Good for them, but they aren't a good team. Utah State beat them and then lost four straight, ranging from the completely understandable (at Alabama) to embarrassing (Weber State at home, 35-7). Air Force went 9-3 but Utah State beat them, now that's a legit win. The Aggies finished with 5 wins in their last 7 which is admirable. But really, they played one good game the whole year, and they'll need to replicate that performance to have a chance.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

No new injures or opt-outs for either team. A receivers are questionable for Memphis, none among the leaders by yardage

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Memphis is a solid favorite but maybe they think the line should be higher? At 6-6, it's doubtful they are worried about the line being too low.
• Location: Dallas is a pretty neutral field, even if Utah State has 3x as far to go and is a time zone away.
• Coaching: No change. 
• Motivation: Memphis went 6-6 last year and didn't play in a bowl game, so they should be at least a bit excited. They probably want to finish with a winning record since they lost so many close ones. Meanwhile Utah State was 10-3 last year and played Oregon State and won; this year they're 6-6. The season didn't live up to their hopes for sure. 
• Momentum: Neither team won their last game but both played well at the end, Memphis winning 2 of 3 and Utah State taking 3 of 4. Maybe more relief than momentum.

We don't really see much to go on here. Neither Memphis nor Utah State would seem to be extremely hyped, nor terribly disappointed at this point. Sometimes you only hear about this stuff after the fact but for now? No real advantage.

Final analysis

I can't see Memphis laying an egg here as they've played so consistently all season long. But will they play true to form and dominate the game like they really should? We noted the big disparity between Strength and Vegas, and Vegas is usually right or they would go out of business. But we can't really account for the narrow spread. It's not exactly narrow, anything over a touchdown is pretty big—but usually there's a reason when our power rating departs from the spread. And it's not like there aren't several 10-point spreads all over the early bowl games. I'd expect this one to be at least 10 points. Maybe not 20, but 10 seems reasonable.

Utah State will need to get a lot of big plays like turnovers to win this game. Safeties Hunter Reynolds and Ike Larsen combine for 7 picks this year. That's the only way they'll really shut down Memphis through the air. Larsen is also the one who blocked 3 kicks this year, so if the Aggies win he'll probably be the hero. But big plays are heavily random and we can't assume they're going to come through with game-changing momentum. And the Tigers have two players who combine for 7 picks, too, and the turnover game actually favors them—it's when we remove it that their spread falls to 16.

Unless I figure something else out, I'm going with Memphis. I'm impressed by their consistency. They play well win or lose, and the level of their losing games beats almost all of Utah State's winning games. Without a reason to downgrade Memphis or upgrade Utah State, I have to go with the Tigers to take care of business. And as we've seen, when the Tigers win, they win comfortably.

Prediction:  Memphis 38, Utah St 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

 

2022 Camellia Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, AL
When: Tuesday, December 27 at 12:00 noon ET
TV: ESPN

Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) vs. Buffalo Bulls (6-6)

Another in an endless array of 6-6 bowl games.

Vegas line/spread: GA Southern by 5 1/2 (over/under 67)

Georgia Southern is favored, and it's been growing, up from 3 1/2 early. The over/under is down from 67.5.

Strength power rating:   #88 GA Southern 35,   #109 Buffalo 32    

Best/Worst removed: GA Southern 35-31

Turnover corrected: GA Southern 37-30

We give a score of 35-32 which is a 3 point spread but the numbers have to be rounded to make a proper score; the actual spread is 3.55 points, right on the dot of the early line for the game. And if we were forced to pick vs. the spread just by our power rating we would give it to Georgia Southern based on playing closer to home.

That advantage stretches to 7 points if we pull out the undue influence of turnovers on team ratings. Buffalo's worth is inflated by their turnover margin, and Georgia Southern is slightly diminished. When we correct for this, the Eagles are a full touchdown better than the Bulls.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3.5 Spread
GA Southern	63%	55.6%
Buffalo	37%	44.4%

Although the Strength power rating's spread is 3.55 points, spotting Buffalo 3.5 points doesn't bring things to the near 50/50 proposition you would expect; Georgia Southern still covers 56% of the time. That's due to the distribution of game ratings and how they compare to each other. Either the Eagles have some high scores that push their mean rating up, or Buffalo had some dud games that lower their mean. Or both. That's why the average score margin doesn't have to be the 50/50 fulcrum (in math terms, the mean and median aren't the same). The 50/50 fulcrum for the game-comparisons is 5.15 points.

When GA Southern has the ball

GA Southern scoring offense(adj): #52	Buffalo scoring defense(adj): #94
GA Southern rushing offense(raw): #83	Buffalo rushing defense(raw): #100
GA Southern passing offense(raw): #4	Buffalo passing defense(raw): #54

Georgia Southern's offense compares favorably to Buffalo's defense. And in this case it's probably okay to compare the raw numbers, since the teams play a very similar level of schedule. That means Georgia Southern's passing attack, while not really the 4th best in the nation, should be able to have a lot of success against Buffalo's #54 (it's a lot worse than that, but whatever) pass defense. QB Kyle Vantrease has 3,901 yards and 25 TDs and 15 picks. That last number might be a concern as Buffalo has 12 picks this year—led by Marcus Fuqua with 7. Also, two of the Eagles' top receivers are out for the year.

When Buffalo has the ball

Buffalo scoring offense(adj): #82	GA Southern scoring defense(adj): #121
Buffalo rushing offense(raw): #74	GA Southern rushing defense(raw): #129
Buffalo passing offense(raw): #62	GA Southern passing defense(raw): #101

The good news for Buffalo is that Georgia Southern has such a terrible defense it should make the Bulls' sluggish offense look good. Both the run game and pass game should find success.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): GA Southern: #24    Buffalo: #94

The Eagles have the special teams edge according to ESPN's FPI.

 

GA Southern's season (6-6) • SOS: #126

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0

1.  Morgan St  59-7
2. @Nebraska  45-42
3. @UAB  21-35
4.  Ball St  34-23
5. @Coastal Carolina  30-34
6. @Georgia St  33-41
7.  James Madison  45-38
8. @Old Dominion  28-23
9.  South Alabama  31-38
10. @Louisiana-Lafayette  17-36
11.  Marshall  10-23
12.  Appalachian St  51-48 2OT
    

 

Georgia Southern started with a bang, following up a 59-7 win over Morgan State with a 45-42 win over Nebraska in Lincoln, and put the final nail in Scott Frost's coaching grave. It turned out Nebraska wasn't good and the wins slowed down a lot, but they had some successes like beating James Madison and the double overtime win over Appalachian State, their only two wins over winning teams.

 

Buffalo's season (6-6) • SOS: #125

Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0

1. @Maryland  10-31
2.  Holy Cross  31-37
3. @Coastal Carolina  26-38
4. @Eastern Michigan  50-31
5.  Miami Ohio  24-20
6. @Bowling Green  38-7
7. @Massachusetts  34-7
8.  Toledo  34-27
9. @Ohio U.  24-45
10. @Central Michigan  27-31
11.  Kent St  27-30 OT
12.  Akron  23-22
    

 

Buffalo lost their first three games; two were completely excusable (Maryland & Coastal Carolina on the road) but one was not (losing to Holy Cross at home). But the Bulls won five straight games with style after that, beating four bowl teams in the process. At this point we projected Buffalo to win out and be MAC champs but they lost their next three, and though they got their final win, beating hapless 2-10 Akron by a point at home to get to a bowl game, I can't think of a more pathetic entry into the bowl world. It's akin to needing to run a 20 minute mile and running 19:55—you did it, but who the fuck is impressed?

Key Injuries / opt-outs

Two receivers for Georgia Southern were lost in mid-November for the season: Derwin Burgess Jr (#2 with 717 yards) and Amare Jones (#4 with 483). Buffalo's 2nd-leading rusher Ron Cook Jr. is questionable for the game.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Georgia Southern is a slight favorite.
• Location: Montgomery is a lot closer for Georgia Southern, but it's still 5 hours away and in a different time zone. While Georgia Southern will have more fans in the stadium the effect on the game is hard to gauge. We didn't give any home field advantage in our estimates above but this might be something to consider. Normally unless it's in-state, there's no consideration but in this case fan difference could be stark. In fact thinking about it now this has to be worth a point or so, the crowd might be all GS.
• Coaching: No change. 
• Motivation: Georgia Southern improved from 3-9 to 6-6 this year and won in double overtime to make it to the bowl game; that's worth something. Buffalo improved from 4-8 so they should be a bit happy at least, but their win over Akron doesn't inspire confidence.
• Momentum: Both teams closed the season in the same way—losing three games and winning the last one to finish 6-6 and get to a bowl game. The final win is important for momentum, too, but although both teams barely won—the Eagles in double overtime and Buffalo by a point—the wins are totally different. Georgia Southern beat an actual good team, Appalachian State, while Buffalo could barely be bothered to beat lowly Akron at home. 

Georgia Southern might not be super-hyped for bowl season but it's hard to believe Buffalo really cares. If you're trying to get to a bowl and want to be there, you beat Akron by 50 points.

Final analysis

This game has really got me thinking about home field advantage and when and how much it applies. In general these are the "rules":

• Playing in your own home stadium: full home field advantage (normally 3.5 points in the FBS, this year is showing lower)
• Playing in your own home state, other team is very far away: partial HFA (maybe 2 points)
• Playing much closer to home than your opponent: maybe 1 point

For in-state games the opponent should be far away, like when Georgia played Oregon in Atlanta, you can't tell me that wasn't a near-home field experience. And if it's in a large state like Texas, it might not apply if you're playing LSU or a team that might physically be closer. The last category is the toughest, you aren't in-state but just are a lot closer. That's what this game is, and it's not just the 5 hour vs. 14 hour driving distance. It's the fact that the location is clearly "in the South" and so is Georgia Southern. Statesboro and Montgomery are on the exact same lattitude line, while Buffalo is definitely in the North. Home field advantage is though to be very "territorial" which is why the home stadium is important, but also home state, and in this case, home region. Are fans coming from Buffalo at all? Who knows, but Georgia Southern fans could easily make the drive and might make for a one-sided experience.

Another area to explore: Do you believe in turnovers or not? Clearly they change the game, but should their effect be subtracted out to get a better idea of what is more likely to happen in the future? This game's forecast could swing on thats. Georgia Southern's QB has thrown 15 picks this year—does that mean he's destined to throw 1 this game? Somewhere between 0 and 2? Or better just left out of the forecast since there's so much randomness? On Buffalo's side, they have 12 picks on the year, so certainly the they'll have one against a pick-prone QB right? And how can picks be random when Bulls safety Marcus Fuqua has 7 interceptions this season? Doesn't seem random to me. But everyone says that forecasts are notably better when the past effect of turnovers is removed and they are assumed to be random, unpredictable events going forward. It turns our 3.5 point forecast into a 7 point forecast for Georgia Southern, so we have to decide what to do.

Both teams are coming in with some disadvantages. Georgia Southern is down 2 of their top 4 receivers, which can't help but affect their passing game. Buffalo on the other hand either didn't want to go bowling and tried to lose against Akron, or tried to win and they're in such a terrible slump that they really suck now. Either way, not a good look for the Bulls.

Everything I look at points to the same thing—about a touchdown for Georgia Southern. Whether the turnover-subtraction score, or the teams' play over the last four games where each slumped and got a final win, I see 7 points, or 6.5 points, and I'll add one for the very partial home field, too.

Prediction:  Georgia Southern 38, Buffalo 30

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

 

2022 New Orleans Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky

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New Orleans Bowl in New Orleans, LA
When: Wednesday, December 21 at 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

South Alabama Jaguars (10-2) vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5)

These teams played the #120 and #121 toughest schedules in the country, so this game will be a big step up from their average opponent.

Vegas line/spread: South Alabama by 4  (over/under 57)

The line appears to have opened a low as South Alabama by 2 1/2, then moved up to 8 after a big player announcement shook the odds on Monday the 5th. Update: The line is back down to -4 and the o/u is up from 54.5 to 57 as WKU's Austin Reed withdrew from the portal and is back in the game.

Strength power rating:   #58 W. Kentucky 28,   #62 So. Alabama 26

Best/Worst removed: Western Kentucky 28-26

Turnover corrected: Western Kentucky 27-27

Our Strength power rating comes to a different conclusion than Vegas, with Western Kentucky a 2 point favorite. Note that when we correct for turnover luck the game is pretty much a draw, with WKU winning what could be described as a 3-overtime game.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -8 Spread
South Alabama	49.4%	29%
Western Kentucky	50.6%	71%

The game-comparisons are even tighter than the power rating spread of 2 points; over 156 outcomes Western Kentucky wins 79 and loses 77. Spotted the 8 points for the spread, though, and they win more than 7 of 10.

When South Alabama has the ball

So. Alabama scoring offense(adj): #71	WKU scoring defense(adj): #66
So. Alabama rushing offense(raw): #57	WKU rushing defense(raw): #75
So. Alabama passing offense(raw): #41	WKU passing defense(raw): #69

This is a pretty even match; Western Kentucky's defense is slightly better, almost to a negligible point, and South Alabama should find some success running and passing the ball. Normally we don't trust raw numbers like the bottom two rows but these teams play almost the same level of schedule overall so it probably can be trusted in general to make these comparison.

When Western Kentucky has the ball

WKU scoring offense(adj): #39	So. Alabama scoring defense(adj): #58
WKU rushing offense(raw): #72	So. Alabama rushing defense(raw): #6
WKU passing offense(raw): #2	So. Alabama passing defense(raw): #52

Here Western Kentucky has a noted advantage over the Jaguars. Their scoring offense is quite a bit better than South Alabama's defense, and in the rushing/passing breakdown we see South Alabama's solid rushing defense wasted on a team that doesn't run much. Instead, they pass at such a voracious clip that they rank #2 (unadjusted) in the nation. Again, we can compare these teams directly using unadjusted numbers because they play the same level of schedule. WKU QB Austin Reed has 4,247 yards on the year with a 36:10 ratio.

So we can conclude in a basic sense that South Alabama can shut down WKU's run game but can't stop their passing game—unless they're very good at pressuring the QB. The Jaguars are #48 in sacks and WKU is #19 in protection, so it doesn't look like that's going to be the key. It looks like it will be a good day for Reed right? Not so fast...Austin Reed entered the transfer portal the other day, putting WKU's entire offense up in the air. So much for analysis! Back to the drawing board in other words.

Update: Reed has withdrawn from the transfer portal and is playing in the bowl again. Who can keep up with this? Two starting offensive linemen are still in the portal.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): South Alabama: #37    Western Kentucky: #125

This is enough of a difference to affect the outcome in a close game. 

 

So. Alabama (10-2) • SOS: #120

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. Nicholls St  48-7
2. @Central Michigan  38-24
3. @#18 UCLA  31-32
4. Louisiana Tech  38-14
5. @Louisiana-Lafayette  20-17
6. Louisiana-Monroe  41-34
7. #24 Troy  6-10
8. @Arkansas St  31-3
9. @Georgia Southern  38-31
10. Texas St-San Marcos  38-21
11. @Southern Miss  27-20
12. Old Dominion  27-20
    

South Alabama is a pretty consistent team, so consistent that the game most people remember from their season is a 1-point loss at UCLA. The only game clearly better than that was the 31-3 win at Arkansas State. The Jaguars finished with five straight wins and their only losses were to top 25 teams. 

 

WKU (8-5) • SOS: #121

Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. Austin Peay  38-27
2. @Hawai`i  49-17
3. @Indiana  30-33 OT
4. Florida Int'l  73-0
5. #24 Troy  27-34
6. @#25 UTSA  28-31
7. @MTSU  35-17
8. UAB  20-17
9. North Texas  13-40
10. @UNC-Charlotte  59-7
11. Rice  45-10
12. @Auburn  17-41
13. @Florida Atlantic  32-31 OT
    

Western Kentucky is the opposite of South Alabama in terms of consistency. They beat FIU 73-0 and Charlotte 59-7, and Rice 45-10, but also lost to North Texas 40-13 and Auburn 41-17. It's pretty much all or nothing for the Hilltoppers, so the idea of an "average game" is pretty silly. They did play well against both Troy and UTSA, losing by 7 and 3 points. The Hilltoppers lost 3 non-conference games which is one of our red flags, as well as two home games.

 

Key Injuries / opt-outs

For WKU, QB Austin Reed (4,247 yds, 36:10) has entered the transfer portal, as has backup QB Darius Ocean (135 yds, 2:1). Update: Reed backed out of backing out of the bowl game. Darius Ocean is still gone.

The Hilltoppers are still down two starting offensive linemen, Rusty Staats and Gunner Britton, and #1 tackler LB JaQues Evans (101 tackles). TE Josh Simon, the #6 receiver, is in the portal as well.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: South Alabama is a pretty big favorite, and it's largely because of WKU's quarterback leaving. Sometimes teams get overconfident and play poorly when their opponent is missing a key player, so this could have an effect on both teams. Update: With Reed back, who knows what to think.
• Location: The game is definitely being played closer to home for South Alabama; we didn't modify the power ratings because it wasn't "in-state" but they're a few hours away compared to 10 hours for WKU, and the Jaguars should have a lot more fan support as a result.
• Coaching: No change. 
• Motivation: South Alabama had a great season at 10-2, so they should be pretty happy about their season. Western Kentucky's season is basically a repeat of last year's at 8-5, but how will the rest of the team feel about their QB and leader leaving? Probably not too good.
• Momentum: South Alabama won five straight to finish the year, and they improved a lot over last year's 5-7 and are in their first bowl game since 2016.

You can argue giving some home field advantage to South Alabama, maybe a point. They also should be more impressed with their improvement this year, but the Jaguars play pretty much the same under all circumstances. The effect on Western Kentucky of not having their starting quarterback is much more of a concern than anything else.

Final analysis

How important is Austin Reed to the Hilltoppers? Sometimes losing a key player doesn't make much of a difference. But Western Kentucky's offense is pass-based, so you'd think it's a big deal. However...is he just a "system quarterback" who can be exchanged like a replacement part? Thing is, their 2nd string quarterback is gone, too, so the replacement level might be poor. Instead of just speculating, shouldn't we look at what's happened in previous years when a starting quarterback opts out of a bowl game? So we shall.

• Just last year, Kenny Pickett opted out of Pitt's bowl game. We projected they would score 34 points; they scored 21
• Also in 2021, Carson Strong opted out of Nevada's bowl game. Projected scoring: 39 points; result: 24 points
• 2018 West Virginia: Will Grier opts out. Projected score: 43 points; result: 18 points
• 2017 UCLA, Josh Rosen opts out. Projected score: 30 points; result: 17 points

Wow. That's pretty bad, a lot worst than I thought, and pretty consistent: 13, 15, 25, and 13 points. Average 16.5 points. No wonder the spread jumped from 2.5 to 8 in minutes. And without their top 2 quarterbacks out, a 16.5 point reduction sounds possible.

Update: Forget all of the above, Reed is back. Now we have a situation that is probably a first—a player opting out, then coming back 4 days before the bowl. But we're only restoring part of what we subtracted from WKU because it has to be a distraction when your QB holds out for real estate broker money while you're prepping for the bowl game. Sticking with South Alabama, whose pass defense is a solid #18 on a per-attempt basis, unlike the teams Reed beat up on recently like #131 UNC-Charlotte.

Prediction:  South Alabama 30, Western Kentucky 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

2022 Boca Raton Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Toledo vs. Liberty

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Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton, FL
When: Tuesday, December 20 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Toledo Rockets (8-5) vs. Liberty Flames (8-4)

The Boca Raton bowl, in Boca Raton of all places.

Vegas line/spread: Toledo by 3 1/2 (over/under 54)

Toledo is a clear but slim favorite to win a moderate-scoring game. The line went up from 4 1/2 to 5, then back down to 3 1/2, while the over/under bumped up from 53.5 to 54 then fell to 53.

Strength power rating:   #92 Liberty 28.93,    #94 Toledo 28.87

Best/Worst removed: Liberty 30-28

Turnover corrected: Toledo 30-29

The Strength power rating basically calls for a tie, or if less than a 0.5 difference is one overtime, and <0.25 is two overtimes, then it's calling for 4 overtimes.

This is a good time to look at the alternate measures listed, like Best/Worst removed which implements the "skating judges" system where the high and low game rating are thrown out and the remaining games averaged. This obviously works best later in the season when throwing out two games still leaves a representative collection. Here, Liberty becomes a 2 point favorite as they had an atrocious game that they'd rather just forget. This rating lets them do that, so if you think a team's best and worst performance were probably unrepeatable flukes, this is a good way to rate teams.

The Turnover correction removes the influence of turnovers on a team's outcome, as turnovers are essentially random and removing them gives a better picture of how good a team is going forward. Toledo improves slightly here because they've had bad turnover luck and Liberty remains mostly unchanged, giving the game to Toledo by a point.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -4.5 Spread
Toledo	46.8%	38%
Liberty	53.2%	62%

Interestingly the winning percentage in the game-comparison system isn't nearly as much of a dead heat as the average score. We'll see later that Liberty's "average game" is being pulled down by one horrific performance and when we only tally games as wins and losses, Liberty wins the majority, and even more often against the original spread.

When Toledo has the ball

Toledo scoring offense(adj): #69	Liberty scoring defense(adj): #91
Toledo rushing offense(raw): #49	Liberty rushing defense(raw): #57
Toledo passing offense(raw): #68	Liberty passing defense(raw): #28

The key numbers here are the adjusted ones: the scoring offense and scoring defense. The others don't show a major advantage and aren't trustworthy as they are raw figures, and both these teams play easy schedules. So here it doesn't make sense to worry about whether Liberty really has a good pass defense. Toledo should be able to score on Liberty at a slightly above average rate based on their adjusted scoring offense rank and Liberty's adjusted scoring defense rank.

Liberty will be missing a starting linebacker and perhaps a few other defensive backups.

When Liberty has the ball

Liberty scoring offense(adj): #74	Toledo scoring defense(adj): #101
Liberty rushing offense(raw): #47	Toledo rushing defense(raw): #59
Liberty passing offense(raw): #78	Toledo passing defense(raw): #15

Again, we don't see a real point to the offense/defense numbers as they are all kind of middling anyway. Like Liberty Toledo shows a hard-to-believe pass defense rank and again, because they play an easy schedule it's easy to rank well in pass defense. The key numbers are the scoring offense and scoring defense, and like the case above, Liberty should be able to score on Toledo at a slightly above-average clip. As it turns out, both teams do rank well in Pass Efficiency defense per the NCAA, and that metric considers more than just raw yardage. So don't look for big passing numbers for either team!

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Toledo: #108    Liberty: #47

A big enough span to possibly make a difference. If the game is as close as our Strength ratings assume, it could come down to special teams play, especially the kicking game.

 

Toledo's season (8-5) • SOS: #94

Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1

1. LIU  37-0
2. Massachusetts  55-10
3. @#4 Ohio State  21-77
4. @San Diego St  14-17
5. Central Michigan  38-17
6. @Northern Illinois  52-32
7. Kent St  52-31
8. @Buffalo  27-34
9. @Eastern Michigan  27-24
10. Ball St  28-21
11. Bowling Green  35-42
12. @Western Michigan  14-20
13. =Ohio U.  17-7
    

Toledo's first two wins were by a score of 92-10, but they met reality against Ohio State, a 77-21 loss. They won 5 of their next 7 and held on to win the MAC West despite losing to Bowling Green and Western Michigan. They won the MAC crown with a win over Ohio. 

 

Liberty's season (8-4) • SOS: #106

Non-conf losses: N/A • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0

1. @Southern Miss  29-27 4OT
2. UAB  21-14
3. @Wake Forest  36-37
4. Akron  21-12
5. @Old Dominion  38-24
6. @Massachusetts  42-24
7. Gardner-Webb  21-20
8. Brigham Young  41-14
9. @Arkansas  21-19
10. @Connecticut  33-36
11. Virginia Tech  22-23
12. New Mexico St  14-49
    

Liberty opened with a four-overtime win at Southern Miss, a 21-14 win over UAB, and a 1-point loss at Wake Forest. From there the Flames won 6 straight, peaking in a 41-14 win over BYU and a road win over Arkansas. At 8-1 Liberty needed to be taken seriously as a top 25 team but then they shockingly lost to UConn, then to Virginia Tech. Hugh Freeze's rumored departure may have prompted the New Mexico State meltdown at home, 49-14. A great season went really bad really fast.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

A bunch of Liberty players entered the transfer portal, but few will have any impact and some of them will still play. The only one who will not play for sure is starting LB Ahmad Walker (#3 tackler). Others who may or may not play are O-line starter Jacob Bodden; #8 receiver Jaivian Lofton; reserve DE Stephen Sings; reserve DB Dre Butler; and a handful of others (mostly linebackers) who have made no impact this season.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Toledo is a slight favorite; neither team should be overconfident or feel disrespected.
• Location: Boca Raton is a very neutral location.
• Coaching: Hugh Freeze left Liberty to go to Auburn, and it doesn't seem to have gone over well with the players. 
• Motivation: The big question is Liberty and their reaction to Hugh Freeze's departure.
• Momentum: Neither team has much positive momentum but Liberty has a lot of negative momentum. Toledo won their last game pretty solidly while Liberty had their worst effort possible.

Obviously the key element in the psychology of the game is Liberty's end-of-season debacle. Losing to UConn was bad enough but the home slaughter by New Mexico State was unreal. Hugh Freeze had told his players before the game that he was considering (or taking?) the Auburn job, and they played horrifically. Now that he's gone does that make it even worse?

Final analysis

If the game is really a 4-overtime thriller, we should really be looking at red zone play of each team since that's essentially what overtime sessions are.

Toledo red zone offense: #36
Liberty red zone defense: #30

Liberty red zone offense: #95
Toledo red zone defense: #89

And well, those results would suggest the game really could go 4 overtimes, as they're evenly matched in both cases. So on to other considerations.

That consideration should be: how is Liberty going to play after having their season end in such an awful fashion? Hugh Freeze even brought that up in a press conference, saying that last year (2021) the Flames flamed out and lost their last three games but "had good bowl prep" and came out with a big win. And it's true, last year Liberty finished in terrible style but won their bowl game 56-20.

This year is different, however. First of all, Hugh Freeze isn't there to "have good bowl prep" with the team, and second, their collapse this time was unbelievable. A team can bounce back from three bad games—especially when they still rate 10 points better than the other team, like last year—but we find it hard to believe they're going to recover so swiftly under these circumstances. It's either 4 overtimes or a blowout.

Prediction:  Toledo 37, Liberty 16

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

2022 Idaho Potato Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Eastern Michigan vs. San José State

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, ID
When: Tuesday, December 20 at 3:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-4) vs. San José State Spartans (7-4)

Two teams not normally associated with potatoes meet in Boise.

Vegas line/spread: San Jose State by 4 1/2 (over/under 53.5)

The Spartans were about a field goal favorite early; the line stayed pretty steady until game day, with the o/u ranging between 52.5 and 54.5.

Strength power rating:   #99 San Jose State 30,    #128 Eastern Mich 24      

Best/Worst removed: San Jose State  29-24

Turnover corrected: San Jose State  28-26

The Spartans are a solid favorite by our Strength power rating unless you correct for turnovers; SJSU has benefitted more than almost anyone from turnovers and if that largesse is subtracted out, they're a lot worse and become only a 2 point favorite; they go from covering to not covering if they don't get their regular share of turnovers.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3.5 Spread
San Jose St	58%	52%
Eastern Mich	42%	48%

San Jose State is favored in most of the game comparisons and still favored—but just barely—to cover the small spread.

When Eastern Michigan has the ball

Eastern Mich scoring offense(adj): #95	San Jose St scoring defense(adj): #77
Eastern Mich rushing offense(raw): #74	San Jose St rushing defense(raw): #28
Eastern Mich passing offense(raw): #85	San Jose St passing defense(raw): #45

Neither team is great in this matchup, so maybe it's best to say that Eastern Michigan's offense is a bit poorer than the Spartan defense. San Jose State's rush/pass defense numbers are exaggerated by their poor SOS but both are probably better than Eastern Michigan's offensive yardage output. There's no indication that the Eagles will find a great way to move the ball, nor that San Jose State has a way to shut them down completely.

When San Jose State has the ball

San Jose St scoring offense(adj): #79	Eastern Mich scoring defense(adj): #114
San Jose St rushing offense(raw): #125	Eastern Mich rushing defense(raw): #80
San Jose St passing offense(raw): #34	Eastern Mich passing defense(raw): #39

Again, San Jose State is not great here but Eastern Michigan is so bad that the Spartans should have decent success scoring points. Since San Jose State is so bad at running the ball we'll focus on the passing game, where they rank pretty high in raw yardage and Eastern Michigan ranks pretty well in pass defense. Both teams SOS is so bad that this comparison can't be trusted. The Eagles are #65 in pass efficiency defense which is definitely a better metric. San Jose is #53 in pass efficiency. So the comparison doesn't change much. QB Chevan Cordeiro has 2,884 yards and a 20:4 ratio this year so far.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Eastern Mich: #46    San Jose St: #128

This might be worth looking into, not because the Eagles are great in special teams (they're not) but because San Jose State is so bad. The elements of special teams are: kickoffs and kickoff coverage; punts and punt coverage; field goals (and extra points). The kicker is the most important of these, and San Jose State's Taran Schive has made 12 of 17 FGs this year, which isn't bad. The team is #103 in punting with a 39.9 yard average and #122 in net punting at 35.0. On kickoff defense the average return allowed is only 15.7 yards but they've allowed 2 touchdown returns. And they only average 17 yards per kickoff return themselves. Really, added together that doesn't look like the 4th worst special teams but it doesn't sound great, especially the 35 yard net punting average, which harms them in the field position battle. And it appears to hurt them on offense more than defense, looking at FPI's numbers compared to ours.

 

Eastern Mich's season (8-4) • SOS: #131

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 0-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0

1. Eastern Kentucky  42-34
2. @Louisiana-Lafayette  21-49
3. @Arizona St  30-21
4. Buffalo  31-50
5. Massachusetts  20-13
6. @Western Michigan  45-23
7. Northern Illinois  10-39
8. @Ball St  20-16
9. Toledo  24-27
10. @Akron  34-28
11. @Kent St  31-24
12. Central Michigan  38-19
    

The first thing to note is Eastern Michigan's SOS rank of #131, worst in the nation. And that's not all—their rating is 0.00, meaning they haven't played an above-average team all season. How did they play three bowl teams then? All three—ULL, Buffalo, even 8-5 Toledo—rank below-average in Strength. And the Eagles didn't beat a single winning FBS team this year. ASU was 3-9, UMass 1-11, Western Mich 5-7, Ball State 5-7, Akron 2-10, Kent State 5-7, and Central Mich 4-8.

And as bad as their schedule is, they still managed to lose three home games, including to 3-9 Northern Illinois by a score of 39-10. They also lost 49-21 to ULL and 50-31 to Buffalo, but at least those were winning teams. The Eagles didn't play nearly that bad over their last 5 games where they went 4-1, but they didn't beat any good teams over that stretch either.

 

San Jose St's season (7-4) • SOS: #124

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0

1. Portland St  21-17
2. @Auburn  16-24
3. Western Michigan  34-6
4. @Wyoming  33-16
5. UNLV  40-7
6. @Fresno St  10-17
7. Nevada  35-28
8. Colorado St  28-16
9. @San Diego St  27-43
10. @Utah St  31-35
11. Hawai`i  27-14
    

As bad as Eastern Michigan's schedule is, the Spartans don't have much to brag about. They played just 4 bowl teams and beat 1 of them. They can boast that they didn't lose a home game though. Their first win over Portland State was arguably their poorest effort—by a lot—and their subsequent loss to Auburn wasn't all that bad. Overall they played best in the first half of the season, scoring 34, 33, and 40 in wins over Western Michigan, Wyoming, and UNLV. It's worth noting that the New Mexico State game was postponed and then cancelled between Fresno State and Nevada.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

None at this time.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: SJSU is a slight favorite but not enough to be overconfident.
• Location: The Boise location is a lot closer to San José, but still 11 hours away! For Eastern Michigan it's a 28 hour drive from Ypsilanti to Boise (you'd fly). Though it's quite a walk for both teams, it's two time zones for the Eagles and just one for San Jose. The weather will be more of an adjustment for the Spartans, though.
• Coaching: No change. 
• Motivation: Every time this bowl comes up people ask the question: does any team like it when they end up here? Other than for the novelty of the blue field, there's not much reason to want to go to a bowl in Boise when there are teams at the same level going to the Bahamas! Particularly for San Jose State, who is coming from California, and has seen this field before (though the current team hasn't player here). San Jose State also didn't go bowling last year so they should have a bit more excitement about the situation.
• Momentum: Both teams improved their record slightly from last season. But as far as in-season play, Eastern Michigan seems to have hit their stride the last 5 games while San Jose State has played a level lower during the 2nd half of the season. 

The most interesting thing here is the 2nd half of season play from both teams. The Eagles are playing their best football—certainly their most consistent—while the Spartans haven't really played a good game since beating UNLV, or maybe the Fresno loss. They look worse on both offense and defense lately.

Final analysis

San Jose State lives off turnovers. They're #3 in the nation in turnover margin. And turnovers are mostly random, that is, they don't persist. Teams that have a good turnover margin are just the tail ends of a random bell curve, and the next game could be completely different. There are teams that create conditions for turnovers and those who just have luck, but luck is a big part of everyone's turnover success story. We note that if San Jose State didn't have their turnover margin, they're about 4 points worse than before. And it determines whether they cover the spread or not in the average game against Eastern Michigan according to our power ratings. San Jose State's turnover margin comes mostly from avoiding turnovers in the passing game; Chevan Cordeira has only 4 INTs in 11 games.

San Jose State's special teams look like a concern but it's hard to put a value on their low ranking. It's really contained in the Strength power rating and parts of it find its way into Scoring Offense and Scoring Defense. Useful as a tiebreaker maybe in a dead-even analysis.

And what to make of each team's last 5 games or so, where Eastern Michigan is looking better than before, and San Jose State fading? Over just the last 5 games Eastern Michigan is a whopping 10 points better than the Spartans! But go back one game earlier for a 6-game sample and we hit the Eagles' worst game, and already Eastern Michigan's "lead" is down to 1 point. And since the Spartans didn't make a bowl last year, does their late season play matter as much?

After seeing all the advantages San Jose State has to win this game, we're going with Eastern Michigan. The fact that even with their worst game included they win the recent 6-game sample is pretty amazing. Also, San Jose State's turnover luck might end, and the fact that Eastern Michigan hasn't beaten a bowl team are the kind of things that end in a bowl game to everyone's surprise. Just watch SJSU suffer two interceptions for the first time this season. Bowl games tend to lead to "firsts" that defy the safe prediction. 

Prediction:  Eastern Michigan 21, San Jose State 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

2022 Myrtle Beach Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Marshall vs. UConn

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

Myrtle Beach Bowl in Conway, SC
When: Monday, December 19 at 2:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) vs. Connecticut Huskies (6-6)

Can you believe it? UConn made a bowl game, for the first time since 2015 and only the 2nd time since their 2010 Fiesta Bowl appearance.

Vegas line/spread: Marshall by 11 (over/under 40.5)

Marshall is a hefty favorite to win a low scoring game. Add the over/under and oddsmakers are picking about a 25-15 result more or less. Spread is up from 10 and over/under has stayed around 40.5.

Strength power rating:   #67 Marshall 25,   #148 UConn 9    

Best/Worst removed: Marshall 25-9

Turnover corrected: Marshall 24-10

Our power ratings give Marshall an even bigger cushion, and give UConn even fewer points on offense; this persists regardless of modifications.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -10 Spread
Marshall	84%	62%
UConn	16%	38%

Marshall is a huge favorite by our power rating, winning 84% of game comparisons and still winning more than 3/5 of the time against the initial 10-point spread.

When Marshall has the ball

Marshall scoring offense(adj): #105	UConn scoring defense(adj): #105
Marshall rushing offense(raw): #21	UConn rushing defense(raw): #89
Marshall passing offense(raw): #104	UConn passing defense(raw): #63

How's this for an even matchup, the #105 offense vs. the #105 defense, both figures adjusted for opposition. Not as good as #5 vs. #5, but competitive at least. Marshall is more of a running team with Khalan Laborn leading the way with 1.423 yards.

When UConn has the ball

UConn scoring offense(adj): #116	Marshall scoring defense(adj): #20
UConn rushing offense(raw): #32	Marshall rushing defense(raw): #5
UConn passing offense(raw): #127	Marshall passing defense(raw): #31

This matchup is another matter altogether. UConn has a terrible offense, though it's not much worse than Marshall's. The difference is Marshall's defense which is top 25 in quality. Though you can't trust the rush/pass breakdown figures due to Marshall's terrible SOS, they're in line with what you would see from a #20 defense so they're not all that far off. It means that UConn run game is going to run into a wall—and they really have no passing game to speak of to take the pressure off.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Marshall: #102    UConn: #112

Marshall's poor special teams play would be one thing that could give UConn a chance—if it weren't for the fact that the Huskies are even worse.

 

Marshall's season (8-4) • SOS: #110

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-1

1. Norfolk St  55-3
2. @#21 Notre Dame  26-21
3. @Bowling Green  31-34 OT
4. @#24 Troy  7-16
5. Gardner-Webb  28-7
6. Louisiana-Lafayette  13-23
7. @James Madison  26-12
8. Coastal Carolina  13-24
9. @Old Dominion  12-0
10. Appalachian St  28-21
11. @Georgia Southern  23-10
12. Georgia St  28-23
    

Marshall shocked the world by upsetting Notre Dame in South Bend, 26-21—but immediately squandered that momentum by losing to Bowling Green in overtime, and then to Troy. Losses to ULL and Coastal Carolina put them at 4-4, but four solid wins to end the season put the Herd about where they should be, a solid season but not in the top 25.

They were 4-4 against bowl teams (counting James Madison) and 1-1 vs. the top 25. Their solid, consistent play at the end of the season bodes well if they can carry that into the bowl game.

 

UConn's season (6-6) • SOS: #78

Non-conf losses: n/a • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. @Utah St  20-31
2. Central Conn St  28-3
3. Syracuse  14-48
4. @#2 Michigan  0-59
5. @#23 North Carolina St  10-41
6. Fresno St  19-14
7. @Florida Int'l  33-12
8. @Ball St  21-25
9. Boston College  13-3
10. Massachusetts  27-10
11. Liberty  36-33
12. @Army  17-34
    

 

Connecticut entered the season as probably an underdog in 10 or 11 games. They wound up with six wins.

It didn't start well at 1-4, with bad losses to Utah State and Syracuse, as well as top 25 teams Michigan and NC State. Their win over Central Connecticut, while it prevented an 0-12 season, wasn't too inspiring. But then they upset Fresno State, which was a big deal and from there they were a competent team, winning four of their last six including wins over Boston College and Liberty. No longer a team "assumed" to lose, the Huskies were back to being sort of an average team, one that might win a given game. It seems like the change might have been as much mental as anything. Perhaps most impressively the Huskies only lost once at home, compared to 5 home losses last year.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

UConn's #3 rusher Nathan Carter (405 yards) is transferring. Third-leading WR Talik Keaton is questionable for Marshall.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Marshall is yet another 10-point favorite, out of 9 games in the first 3 bowl days. That's almost 50% seen to be mismatches. There's the usual chance of a team being overconfident when they're expected to win by a lot, and in this case playing UConn might be seen as a trifle.
• Location: Conway is closer to Marshall than UConn but both are still far away, and in the same time zone.
• Coaching: No changes. 
• Motivation: Neither team will be disappointed at where they ended up. UConn for obvious reasons—very few were expecting a bowl season from the Huskies, or anything close, so they're ecstatic. Marshall, on the other hand, probably had really high hopes after the Notre Dame win but once they were 4-4 those dreams had diminished. Finishing not just with the two wins needed but with four is a good sign that they are motivated, too.
• Momentum: Both teams have decent momentum; Marshall ended with four solid wins, and UConn won three of their last four. Though they dropped their final game, the Huskies improved from 1-11 to 6-6 which will make any team happy. Marshall improved from 7-5 last season.

We're not sure Marshall will overlook UConn, because it seems the narrative on the Huskies has changed from "they are terrible" to "they aren't very good but they aren't a joke." Marshall took teams (Bowling Green) lightly this year and paid for it; if they learned their lesson they won't overlook the Huskies.

UConn is clearly the more excited team about this bowl game, but that doesn't mean Marshall is going to slog their way through it and get upset. UConn's enthusiasm won't necessarily translate to better bowl play unless Marshall is a willing participant, and the Herd finished the season strong, too. 

Final analysis

It looks like an even game when Marshall has the ball—their offense is no better than UConn's bad defense. But everything else is lined up for a big Marshall win, hence the double-digit spread. Marshall's defense outclasses the Huskie offense by many degrees. Special teams play can't close the gap at all. The only thing that could swing the game to UConn's favor is psychology and motivation.

And there's not too much there. The big thing is UConn's improvement and the fact that they're back in a bowl game. But sometimes that's a reward in and of itself—the goal is breaking out of the perennial 1-11 or 3-9 trap and getting the bowl bid. They've done their job. A win would be great but a loss wouldn't diminish their season.

Really, this one looks like a "settled on the field" type of game, and Marshall's defense should be what settles it. We see Marshall controlling the game and winning, the only question being do they cover the hefty spread. Both teams played great in their last four games and look like they'll keep that up. Over that span Marshall was about 14 points better, which matches the overall season for both teams in our power rating. We think Marshall takes care of business against the Huskies, who won't be any less excited at having a 6-win season after only 4 wins in the last four years.

Prediction:  Marshall 28, UConn 10

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

2022 LendingTree Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Southern Miss vs. Rice

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

LendingTree Bowl in Mobile, AL
When: Saturday, December 17 at 5:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (6-6) vs. Rice Owl (5-7)

Every year there's a "worst bowl" usually on one of the first few days, featuring the teams with the worst records. The Eagles vs. the Owls? This one's for the birds.

Vegas line/spread: Southern Miss by 6 1/2 (over/under 45.5)

The Eagles are a solid touchdown favorite to win a pretty low-scoring game. Line is down from 7 early on, o/u down from 46.5.

Strength power rating:   #103 Southern Miss 28,   #141 Rice 21    

Best/Worst removed: Southern Miss 27-21

Turnover corrected: Southern Miss 26-23

The Strength power rating agrees with the 7 point spread for the average game. But Rice has suffered a worse turnover margin than almost anyone, and it's made them look worse than they are. Corrected for that, they're only a 3 point underdog in our power rating.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Southern Miss	56%	44%
Rice	44%	56%

An interesting result in the game-comparison metric. It makes sense that Southern Miss wins the majority of game comparisons when they are a 7 point favorite in our power rating. But when we want to see if they beat a 7-point spread, you'd think that would be a 50/50 result—since our power rating essentially agrees with the spread. But no, now Rice is a 56% favorite to beat the 7 point spread. In fact, the teams are 50/50 against a 4 point spread instead. What this means is that the average win by Southern Miss is 7 points, but some very large wins are skewing the average (mean), while the median is around 4 points. We'll look at the charts later and see why this happens (hint: both teams are very unpredictable and their game ratings are all over the place).

When Southern Miss has the ball

Southern Miss scoring offense(adj): #115	Rice scoring defense(adj): #119
Southern Miss rushing offense(raw): #105	Rice rushing defense(raw): #91
Southern Miss passing offense(raw): #96	Rice passing defense(raw): #44

In the worst bowl game, this is the worst scenario: Southern Miss has the ball, their #115 offense playing against Rice's #119 defense. At least it's an even matchup, so it might be just as entertaining as Georgia vs. Ohio State in that respect, but you won't be seeing high-level football on either side of the line of scrimmage. The raw rush/pass comparisons are fairly valid since the teams play comparable schedules, and they suggest that moving the ball won't be that easy for Southern Miss.

When Rice has the ball

Rice scoring offense(adj): #112	Southern Miss scoring defense(adj): #68
Rice rushing offense(raw): #76	Southern Miss rushing defense(raw): #46
Rice passing offense(raw): #71	Southern Miss passing defense(raw): #74

Rice doesn't have a great offense either, it's about equal to the Golden Eagle offense. But Southern Miss actually has a pretty decent defense, so the Owls are going to have trouble scoring. Their best bet seems to be through the air, but again those are raw numbers unadjusted for opposition. The scoring numbers tell a better story and that doesn't look good for Rice.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Southern Miss: #26    Rice: #105

Quite a discrepancy here, and it does explain Southern Miss's good scoring defense numbers, as good special teams has a lot to do with starting field position for your opponent. Rice's rank also explains how they have such a poor scoring offense while gaining a respectable number of yards—their poor punting forces them into longer drives, and poor field goal kicking leaves some drives scoreless.

 

Southern Miss's season (6-6) • SOS: #117

Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-1

1. Liberty  27-29 4OT
2. @Miami FL  7-30
3. Northwestern St 62-10
4. @#16 Tulane 27-24
5. @#24 Troy 10-27
6. Arkansas St  20-19
7. @Texas State  20-14
8. Louisiana-Lafayette  39-24
9. Georgia St  14-42
10. @Coastal Carolina  23-26
11. South Alabama  20-27
12. @Louisiana-Monroe  20-10
    

Southern Miss had an up and down year, that's for sure. It started on a down note as they lost to Liberty in four overtimes, then got blitzed by Miami, a loss that got worse in retrospect as the season progressed. The Eagles rebounded to destroy Northwestern by 52 points and then beat Tulane, a team that ended up 11-2 and ranked #16 by the Playoff Committee. At this point no one knew what to make of the Eagles.

They won three of the next four before hitting a 3-game losing skid that included a 42-14 loss to Georgia State, but luckily managed a sixth win to become bowl eligible. They've shown they're capable of beating really good teams on the road, and losing to really bad teams at home, so who can tell what they'll do in a given game. The win to reach bowl eligibility is good sign, I guess. But the two non-conference losses and three home losses are a red flag.

 

Rice's season (5-7) • SOS: #93

Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 2-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. @#10 USC 14-66
2. McNeese St  52-10
3. UL-Lafayette  33-21
4. @Houston  27-34
5. UAB  28-24
6. @Florida Atlantic  14-17
7. @Louisiana Tech  42-41 OT
8. UNC-Charlotte  23-56
9. UTEP  37-30
10. @Western Kentucky  10-45
11. #25 UTSA  7-41
12. @North Texas  17-21

Where to begin with Rice? Why not start at the first game at USC, a 66-14 obliteration, which we can probably excuse since the Trojans are a top-ten team and the game was on the road. Somehow Rice's next six games were all decent performances, especially the next four which make up their best stretch; the Owls beat two bowl teams and played Houston really close. The wheels fell off in game 8, a performance so bad it shouldn't even show up on the graph, a 56-23 home loss to Charlotte. Again, the Owls bounced back from that debacle to beat UTEP. 

Needing one win in three games, the Owls lost all three, and only their APR got them into a bowl game at 5-7. To be fair all three games were against bowl-bound teams and they gave a good effort at North Texas before falling. Overall Rice played 8 decent games and 4 atrocious ones, so whether they keep this bowl game close or get blown out depends seems to be a 67:33 proposition. As we noted turnovers are a Rice problem and in those four bad games they suffered 4, 1, 6, and 3 turnovers. That suggests their worst games are due to turnovers but their very worst game was a 1-turnover game, so they're very capable of being awful even without turning the ball over.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

No major injuries at this time.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Southern Miss is the favorite as is proper, since they don't have a losing record. There might be some chance for overconfidence from the Eagles playing against a 5-7 team.
• Location: Mobile, AL is a lot closer to Hattiesburg than it is to Houston, which seems close but is a 7 hour drive! Southern Miss can probably send a lot more fans to the venue in a 2 hour drive. We haven't added any consideration for home field since it's not in the same state but it's a close as most in-state games and could be worth about a point on average.
• Coaching: No change. 
• Motivation: Hard to say here. Southern Miss got a clutch win to make a bowl game, and it's pretty close to home, but are they enthused? And Rice backed into the game for which they should be grateful, but are they excited about it? They are going to their first bowl since 2014 which is something, and Southern Miss missed the last two bowl seasons as well. Still, it's hard to think either team is really that motivated, but also hard to see a big advantage on either side.
• Momentum: Rice definitely has some negative momentum going on with losing three straight at the end—at least Southern Miss broke their losing skid. Rice did improve on last year (by 1 game) while Southern Miss is 3 wins better than last year's 3-9.

Both teams went from a no-bowl 2021 to a bowl game, regardless of how they got here. Southern Miss has a bit of a home field edge from crowd support possibly. And the Eagles have the edge in momentum, having won their last game while Rice ended on a 3-game skid.

Final analysis

The turnover issue is one to contemplate. Rice has a terrible turnover margin. Is that just bad luck, or because they're not a very good team? Statistics show that the former is most of the equation—turnovers are just luck. Clearly there are times when it comes down to a QB who throws very few picks, but even that's hard to predict for a given game. Fumbles and their recoveries are very random. If you think Rice is going to have their normal bad luck this game, then a 7-point spread is appropriate, but if they don't have their normal rate of bad luck, a closer outcome is more likely. That's without going into any other aspects of the game, of course, but it's a starting point: either 7 points, or just 3 points.

It's also interesting that game-by-game, a 4 point spread is the "median" result. The average (or mean) result is 7 points, and that's what you look at when comparing teams for a rating system, but on a given game you want to know how often is the spread going to be above or below a certain number. Despite the 7 point average, for these two teams the median is 4 points, due as we saw to their outlier games bloating the mean average.

5-7 teams have made bowl games six times since 2015, and their record is 4-2 which suggests they overperform, or are taken lightly by their opponent. But in 3 of the 4 wins our power rating made the team the favorite. The only upset was 5-7 Nebraska beating 8-4 UCLA 37-29 in 2015. So there's no reason to give special consideration, positive or negative, to a 5-7 team being in a bowl game.

We're going to assume Rice doesn't have one of its horrid games. If they do they'll lose by four touchdowns, and that's about a 1 in 3 chance. By taking the 2 in 3 chance, we're reducing the expected margin to about 4 points, which is on our 50/50 line for game comparisons. It also jibes with the turnover-exclusion forecast with an extra point added for Southern Miss playing close to home. Bottom line, if Rice keeps the turnovers under control, they keep it close and have a shot at winning. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, Southern Miss should still be the favorite here. 

Prediction:  Southern Miss 27, Rice 23

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

2022 L.A. Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Fresno State vs. Washington State

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L.A. Bowl in Inglewood, CA
Time: Saturday, December 17 at 3:30 pm ET
TV: ABC

Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4) vs. Washington State Cougars (7-5)

A very west coast battle in a west coast town. It's the Jimmy Kimmel L.A. Bowl.

Vegas line/spread: Fresno State by 4 1/2 (over/under 53)

The early line had Fresno a slim 1 1/2 point favorite playing in Inglewood; that jumped to 4 1/2 on game day, with the over under down from 54 1/2.

Strength power rating:    #32 Washington State 27,    #65 Fresno State 20 

Best/Worst removed: Washington State 27-21

Turnover corrected: Washington State 27-21

A rare big difference between the Strength power rating projection and the (early 1.5 point) Vegas line; Strength gives the win to Washington State by a touchdown even after we give Fresno partial home field advantage for playing in-state. It narrows a bit more with the adjustments for extreme games or turnovers, but it's still clearly Cougars. Why are the oddsmakers so high on the Bulldogs? Let's find out.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -1.5 Spread
Fresno State	39%	27%
Washington St	61%	73%

Our game-comparison system shows Washington State a decent sized favorite, though Fresno wins about 2 in 5 times. With the spread favoring the Bulldogs though, the Cougars cover almost 2/3 of the time against -1.5, and almost 3 in 4 against the late spread. Note that this is comparing games during the season when team were all full strength. Opt outs and transfers have really changed the bowl season, metrics like "how good was the team during the season?" are becoming obsolete!

When Fresno State has the ball

Fresno St scoring offense(adj): #54	Washington St scoring defense(adj): #22
Fresno St rushing offense(raw): #96	Washington St rushing defense(raw): #35
Fresno St passing offense(raw): #27	Washington St passing defense(raw): #112

The advantage goes to Washington State here with their top 25 scoring defense. Fresno State's offense isn't bad but doesn't measure up when corrected for opposition. Where they do seem to have a big opportunity is when passing the ball, as they're #27 in raw passing yards and Washington State's pass D is #112. That looks bad, but these are raw numbers which can already be misleading, and pass defense per-game stats don't tell the whole story. The Cougars are a much-better #73 in pass efficiency defense—though that's still good news for QB Jake Haener, who threw for 2,616 yards in 8 1/2 games.

When Washington St has the ball

Washington St scoring offense(adj): #51	Fresno St scoring defense(adj): #60
Washington St rushing offense(raw): #113	Fresno St rushing defense(raw): #78
Washington St passing offense(raw): #35	Fresno St passing defense(raw): #23

Washington State isn't great on offense but neither is Fresno the best on D. They're about evenly matched but unlike when Fresno State has the ball, the rush/pass matchups here don't show a discrepancy. The Cougars are best passing the ball, but Fresno State defends the pass well (and their passing efficiency defense ranking of #10 really backs that up). So QB Cameron Ward might not have an easy time moving the ball, and the Cougar run game isn't very good. 

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Fresno State: #20    Washington St: #42

Fresno State has solid special teams, maybe something to consider though Washington State isn't bad in ESPN's composite.

 

Fresno State's season (9-4) • SOS: #80

Non-conf losses: 3 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. Cal Poly SLO 35-7
2. #14 Oregon St 32-35
3. @#10 USC 17-45
4. @Connecticut 14-19
5. @Boise St 20-40
6. San Jose St 17-10
7. @New Mexico 41-9
8. San Diego St 32-28
9. Hawai`i 55-13
10. @UNLV 37-30
11. @Nevada 41-14
12. Wyoming 30-0
13. @Boise St 28-16
    

Fresno State went 1-4 early on, consisting of a tepid win over San Luis-Obispo, losses to two Pac-12 teams, a shocking loss to UConn, and a 40-20 drubbing to Boise State. Ultimately the Oregon State loss was a good performance and USC almost made the Playoff, while UConn became a bowl team, and as for Fresno they rattled off 8 straight wins culminating in a revenge win at Boise State, 28-16 for the Mountain West title.

Starting QB Jake Haener was hurt against USC and didn't play again until game 8 against San Diego State. It's true they played their worst two games without him but they were already recovering by the time he retook the reigns, so it's hard to make an exact story of their comeback with him as the hero, suffice it to say the 2nd half of the season has been much better. Despite Fresno's poor SOS ranking they've played 8 bowl teams and beat half of them (counting Boise twice of course).

The three non-conference losses is a big deal according to a study on bowl games. Does it matter that two were top 25 teams and their QB was hurt? That should probably be a mitigating factor.

Washington St's season (7-5) • SOS: #46

Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 1-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-5

1. Idaho 24-17
2. @Wisconsin 17-14
3. Colorado St 38-7
4. #15 Oregon 41-44
5. California 28- 9
6. @#10 USC 14-30
7. @#14 Oregon St 10-24
8. #8 Utah 17-21
9. @Stanford 52-14
10. Arizona St 28-18
11. @Arizona 31-20
12. #12 Washington 33-51
    

Washington State started off 4-1, lost three to top 25 teams, won three over teams with losing records, then stumbled badly at home against rival Washington to end the season. Their only bowl-team win came in the early upset (at the time) of Wisconsin on the road; they're 1-5 against bowl teams but the 5 losses are all to ranked teams. Can't get much of a handle on exactly where this team fits when they beating losing teams and lose to the top 25.  

While the Cougars were undefeated in non-conference play they also lost 3 home games. In the same study that values non-conference win percentage, the #2 criteria is home win percentage, where the Cougars are just 57%. Again, all three losses were to top 25 teams so does it mean anything?

Key Injuries / opt-outs

Washington State's #1 WR De'Zhaun Striblin (602 yards) and #3 Donovan Ollie (491) both hit the transfer portal late. #4 WR Renard Bell is questionable. On defense they're missing three key LBs: #1 tackler Daiyan Henley (106 tackles, 4 sacks), #4 tackler Francisco Mauigoa (60, 3.5 sacks), and #6 Travion Brown (49, 1.5).

For Fresno State, #5 WR Josh Kelly is transferring.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Washington State might be a bit surprised at being the underdog here, given that they're the Power Five team. Possibly a motivating factor, though Fresno has the better record and it's a close spread. It certainly means the Cougars won't take the Bulldogs lightly.
• Location: An in-state game is favorable for Fresno State, but it's not full home field advantage of course. And given California's size they aren't really playing all that close to home.
• Coaching: No changes. 
• Motivation: Both are probably glad to be going bowling and didn't expect a better outcome for some time. Fresno State especially must be psyched to be 9-4 after starting 1-4.
• Momentum: Fresno State wins this one hands-down with an 8-game win streak ending with 3 really good performances. Washington State lost 51-33 at home in their last game. Compared to last year both teams had very similar outcomes to their 2021 campaigns.

If momentum is real then Fresno State is a happy team, winner of 8 straight games while Washington State ended on a lousy note at home to arch-rival Washington. They're probably happier about their season's outcome given their poor start. And they're playing in-state. Edge goes to Fresno State here, and particularly with all the transfers and opt-outs emerging late from Washington State.

Final analysis

You can see from the rushing/passing offense/defense matchups why the oddsmakers have moved toward Fresno State. The Bulldogs pass well, and QB Jake Haener has been hot lately, while Washington State's pass defense is mediocre at best. Meanwhile the Cougars want to pass the ball but Fresno has solid pass defense. Overall in scoring offense and defense Washington State has the edge, but that seems to disappear—at least partially—when you look closer.

Interestingly the teams have two common opponents, and they lost all four games. Oregon State beat Fresno 35-32 and Washington State 24-10; USC beat Fresno 45-17 and Washington State 30-14. Total margin of defeat? 31 points vs. 30 points. Or maybe 31 vs. 23 if we correct for playing home vs. away. Still pretty close.

In terms of motivation and psychology Fresno State also gains an edge. Washington State doesn't have the negative profile of a team that doesn't want to show up, though, which is what needs to happen if you're picking the winner just based on psychology (though after all those transfers came in, maybe so...). Still, the Bulldogs look like they're on a roll.

But Fresno State's 25% win rate in non-conference games raises red flags from a study done using AI and decision trees; non-conference winning percentage was by far the most significant predictor of all variables. Meanwhile Washington State skates by at 100%. We noted that two of Fresno's losses were to top 25 teams and their starting QB was hurt during 2 games, but that model had an 86% prediction rate for picking winners.

Non-conference winning percentage is usually better for Power Five teams, so it's not unusual that it's a good criteria to pick winners. But to reach 86% there has to be something more it's revealing. Bowl teams that lose their non-conference games tend to win their conference games, so maybe they play worse against unfamiliar opponents—including their bowl opponent? Hard to say why this works; there's also the chance that it's a fluke outcome. Note that in the same paper, the #2 criteria is home winning percentage, and Washington State fails that miserably at 57% to Fresno's 80%. And the #5 criterial is a team's record over its last 7 games, another measure favoring the Bulldogs.

But it's interesting that even in Fresno State's great 8-game win streak, Washington State's last 8 games rate better overall, and would "win" 3 out of 5 cross-comparisons over that span. We have to remember when comparing passing and rushing raw figures that the Cougars have played a much tougher schedule. I'm willing to move the teams closer for all the small advantages that Fresno has in this game but not quite enough to get them all the way there.

Update: All of Washington State's receiver and linebacker transfers have hollowed out their offense and defense. Pretty much all of the analysis above should be rewritten, and there's not much precedent to judge the team that will actually take the field. The main positive about Washington State was their #22 scoring defense, and without their 3 starting linebackers (they have a 4-2-5 defense but three key linebackers that play a lot) they look really weak in the middle of the defense, and the backups at LB have played a fraction of the time of those three (40 tackles vs. 215). I had picked Washington State as an underdog before, but now I have to go with Fresno. I don't like changing my picks even with new information but based on both motivation and schematics it now looks like the Bulldogs should win, possibly pretty big.

Prediction:  Fresno State 34, Washington State 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

2022 New Mexico Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: SMU vs. BYU

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New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, NM
Time: Saturday, December 17 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

SMU Mustangs (7-5) vs. BYU Cougars (7-5)

Two teams that won national titles in the early 80s and have been trying to get back there ever since. Not a bad bowl for day 2, as both teams showed flashes of great play during the season.

Vegas line/spread: SMU by 4 (over/under 64.5)

The oddsmakers like the Mustangs in a close, high-scoring game. Since our review the line has moved sharply toward SMU, up from 1 1/2 while the over/under fell dramatically from 71. So it's not quite so close and high scoring any more.

Strength power rating:   #56 SMU 40,   #69 BYU 35    

Best/Worst removed: SMU 39-36

Turnover corrected: SMU 41-35

The Strength power rating has SMU by around five points; that decreases to three if you remove each team's best and worst game (we'll see that SMU's best game is huge, and BYU's worst is pretty bad, so this makes sense). Removing turnover "luck" gives SMU an overall 6-point advantage, though.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -4 Spread
SMU	60%	52.1%
BYU	40%	47.9%

SMU wins 3 of 5 game-comparisons straight up, and a slightly smaller amount accounting for the small (early 1.5 point) spread. Against a 4 point spread it's even tighter, of course. These comparisons use the team's performances over the season, and both are missing key players now so these results are less relevant.

When SMU has the ball

SMU scoring offense(adj): #17	BYU scoring defense(adj): #82
SMU rushing offense(raw): #66	BYU rushing defense(raw): #98
SMU passing offense(raw): #6	BYU passing defense(raw): #84

We can see why the oddsmakers show a high-scoring game, and even higher for our Strength power rating. SMU has a top 25 level scoring offense while BYU's defense hasn't been very good this year. Broken down into raw (unadjusted) rushing and passing figures BYU's defense remains about the same while we see the Mustangs are a passing team, top ten in yardage. QB Tanner Mordecai (seriously) has over 3,300 yards and a 31:9 ratio. BYU ranks #130 in sacks so don't look for QB pressure.

Top target Rashee Rice has 1,355 yards and 10 TDs but he's declared for the NFL, leaving a huge hole in the offense. Rice has 3x the receptions and almost 3x the yardage as the next guy, a loss that will impact the passing game a lot. 

When BYU has the ball

BYU scoring offense(adj): #53	SMU scoring defense(adj): #108
BYU rushing offense(raw): #52	SMU rushing defense(raw): #121
BYU passing offense(raw): #32	SMU passing defense(raw): #92

BYU's offense is mediocre to middling but SMU's defense is terrible. To be fair, SMU plays one of the fastest offenses in college football so there are more drives per team, and more drives means more points scored, period. But #108 is pretty bad, and BYU will have a lot more drives than normal. The Cougars are good but not great on the ground and through the air, but they might look amazing against SMU's defense.

QB Jaren Hall (3,171 yards, 31:6) is now listed as "doubtful" for the game, which means he still may play but probably not. Clearly this would have a big impact on the team, as backup Jacob Conover has transferred and Cade Fennegan hasn't taken any snaps in a game. Update: Hall is out.

 

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): SMU: #100    BYU: #97

Neither team has good special teams, so neither has an advantage.

 

SMU's season (7-5) • SOS: #57

Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. @North Texas 48-10
2. Lamar 45-16
3. @Maryland 27-34
4. #3 TCU 34-42
5. @Central Florida 19-41
6. Navy 40-34
7. Cincinnati 27-29
8. @Tulsa 45-34
9. Houston 77-63
10. @South Florida 41-23
11. @#16 Tulane 24-59
12. Memphis 34-31 
    

SMU kicked off the season with their best win by far, a 48-10 thumping of North Texas that made them look like the American conference favorite right off the bat. They never really came close to being that good again, and after losing to Maryland, #3 TCU, and UCF they were 2-3. The Mustangs went 5-2 from there and only lost in-conference to UCF, Cincinnati, and #16 Tulane, which is pretty good overall. They were 3-5 against bowl teams, and 3-3 against unranked bowl teams. Their signature game was game 9 against Houston where the two teams combined for 140 points in 60 minutes. The Mustangs ended strong going 4-1 but the loss was their worst game, a 59-24 drubbing by Tulane.

 

BYU's season (7-5) • SOS: #65

Non-conf losses: NA • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. @South Florida 50-21
2. Baylor 26-20 2OT
3. @#15 Oregon 20-41
4. Wyoming 38-24
5. Utah St 38-26
6. =#21 Notre Dame 20-28
7. Arkansas 35-52
8. @Liberty 14-41
9. East Carolina 24-27
10. @Boise St 31-28
11. Utah Tech 52-26
12. @Stanford 35-26
    

Like SMU, BYU's first game was their best, though it wasn't quite as radical. The problem is that their 2nd game was their 2nd best, so after two games—a 50-21 crushing of USF, and a double overtime win over Baylor—hopes were high for a team that had several big teams left on their schedule. They couldn't keep up with Oregon, however, losing 41-20, and they lost to Notre Dame 28-20 which started them on a 4-game skid that bottomed out in a terrible 49-14 loss at Liberty. To their credit the Cougars recovered and won three straight at the end, but the defense was consistently mediocre, especially against FCS's Utah Tech.

For the entire year, BYU never held a team under 20 points. In the last six games, the low was 26.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

BYU's #3 running back Lopini Katoa is out with an injury; QB Jaren Hall has been confirmed out as well. On defense, #2 tackler LB Kennan Pill is transferring.

For SMU, leading receiver Rashee Rice is opting out.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: SMU is the slight favorite, and with both teams 7-5 neither will be overconfident or feel disrespected
• Location: The New Mexico location is pretty much the mid-point between Provo and Dallas
• Coaching: No change 
• Motivation: Not sure either team really wants to be here, but both have to be thankful they made a bowl at all. Probably more a sense of relief rather than enthusiasm for both teams, who were 3-4 and 4-5 respectively at one point.
• Momentum: Both teams have some good late-season momentum, BYU going 3-0 to finish and SMU 4-1. Both teams fell short of last year's benchmark where SMU was 8-4 and BYU 10-2 at regular season's end. Like I said, relief not enthusiasm most likely.

There's really nothing to go by here, it's about as even as you can get, right down to the mid-point location.

Final analysis

Both of these teams peaked in their first game, settled down from there and had one terrible game. Both had losing records and things looked bleak. Both came through in the end to finish 7-5 and get a bowl berth. It's fitting that they face off in New Mexico.

It looks like both offenses will have free reign. SMU's passing attack is very potent—top ten in raw yardage—and BYU's pass defense is poor, and they are terrible at pressuring the quarterback so he'll have time to pick his targets. Meanwhile SMU's defense is bad—and their fast-paced offense allows many possessions—so BYU will score a lot, too. One thing the Cougars do very well is protect the QB so both QBs will be slinging the ball around all evening. (Update: see below)

Update for the above: With Rashee Rice out for SMU, and BYU QB Jaren Hall doubtful (now confirmed out), the offenses take a big step back from dominating the opposing defenses. Those losses are why the over/under fell from 71 to 64 in a heartbeat.

SMU held opponents under 28 points only 3 times; they win by overwhelming teams with offense and hoping the other team can't keep up. The teams that have been able to slow down SMU enough to defeat them all rank #43 or better in scoring defense. They've beaten every team with a scoring defense worse than that; BYU ranks #82. BYU probably can't keep up with the pace that SMU is going to try to set while starting an inexperienced third-string QB.

Update: Due to the losses we mentioned previously we've cut our score estimate a LOT. And then even more for good measure. I don't think either team's passing game will be recognizable.

Prediction:  SMU 31, BYU 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

2022 Las Vegas Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: #14 Oregon State vs. Florida

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Las Vegas Bowl in Las Vegas, NV
When: Saturday, December 17 at 2:30 pm ET
TV: ABC

#14 Oregon State Beavers (9-3) vs. Florida Gators (6-6)

Two Power Five schools, one ranked, one 6-6, is it a mismatch or is there more to it?

Vegas line/spread: Oregon St by 8 1/2 (over/under 53)

Vegas seems to think this really is a mismatch, as the Beavers were solid 10 point favorites which stayed steady until game day. The over/under is up from 52.

Strength power rating:   #18 Oregon St 30,   #29 Florida 26    

Best/Worst removed: Oregon St 31-26

Turnover corrected: Oregon St 31-24

Our Strength power rating sees the game being a lot closer than the oddsmakers do, with Oregon State favored by about 4 points. Correcting for turnovers—which are essentially random—stretches the gap to about 7, closer but still short of what Vegas sees.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -8.5 Spread
Oregon St	62%	43%
Florida	38%	57%

Our power rating comfortably favors the Beavers to win, but it's just as comfortable taking the Gators against the spread.

When Oregon St has the ball

Oregon St scoring offense(adj): #44	Florida scoring defense(adj): #38
Oregon St rushing offense(raw): #27	Florida rushing defense(raw): #101
Oregon St passing offense(raw): #103	Florida passing defense(raw): #89

The Beavers have a decent but not amazing offense, which describes Florida's defense, too. Both are good for the 131-team FBS, but neither stand out in the Power Five. The big contrast, though, occurs when Oregon State runs the ball where they are very productive and Florida is poor at stopping it. Note that the yardage stats are raw—unadjusted for opponents—and Florida played one of the toughest schedules in the country. That's how they can be in the bottom 40 in yardage stats but in the top 40 in scoring defense (which is opponent-adjusted). Still, the ground game looks good for Oregon State, who has a number of solid RBs.

When Florida has the ball

Florida scoring offense(adj): #24	Oregon St scoring defense(adj): #13
Florida rushing offense(raw): #16	Oregon St rushing defense(raw): #20
Florida passing offense(raw): #69	Oregon St passing defense(raw): #75

Here's where the real quality play in this game will take place—Florida's top 25 offense vs. Oregon State's top 25 defense. Likewise both are top 20 in rushing offense vs. rushing defense, and the passing numbers line up, too. It's a very even matchup on this side of the ball. Like Oregon State, Florida has a number of good runners, one of those being QB Anthony Richardson who is foregoing the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft, a big problem for the Gators offense, and a big reason Florida is a double-digit underdog. Since 2nd string QB Jalen Kitna was arrested and dismissed from the team, that leaves 3rd stringer Jack Miller to run the offense.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Oregon St: #19    Florida: #67

The Beavers have a noted advantaged on special teams.

 

Oregon St's season (9-3) • SOS: #49

Non-conf losses: 0 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 4-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 1-3

1. Boise St 34-17
2. @Fresno St 35-32
3. Montana St 68-28
4. #10 Southern Cal 14-17
5. @#8 Utah 16-42
6. @Stanford 28-27
7. Washington St 24-10
8. Colorado 42-9
9. @#12 Washington 21-24
10. California 38-10
11. @Arizona St 31-7
12. #15 Oregon 38-34
    

Oregon State has played pretty consistently whether winning or losing; their 42-16 road loss to Utah rates the same as their subsequent 1-point win over Stanford, and their 42-9 win over Colorado was followed by an equivalent performance at Washington, a 3-point loss. The Beavers finished with three strong wins, including a rivalry-week triumph over Oregon, the only top 25 team they beat in four attempts. Outside of the top 25 though, they were 3-0 vs. bowl-bound teams.

 

Florida's season (6-6) • SOS: #7

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 2
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 2-4

1. #8 Utah 29-26
2. Kentucky 16-26
3. South Florida 31-28
4. @#6 Tennessee 33-38
5. Eastern Washington 52-17
6. Missouri 24-17
7. #17 LSU 35-45
8. =#1 Georgia 20-42
9. @Texas A&M 41-24
10. #19 South Carolina 38-6
11. @Vanderbilt 24-31
12. @#13 Florida St 38-45
    

Florida, however, was not a consistent team by any measure. They actually beat Utah in the first game of the season, something Oregon State couldn't come close to doing. And though they fell to Kentucky and barely beat South Florida, their game against Tennessee was pretty great in retrospect, even in losing. Their next four games included decent performances whether winning, or losing to LSU and Georgia, then the Gators clobbered Texas A&M and crushed South Carolina right before the Gamecocks became a great team. There's clearly a lot of talent on this team that can rise to the occasion at unpredictable times or, as seen in the Vanderbilt loss, fall flat. The FSU loss was a spirited effort on the road, so they haven't given up their season. The bottom line is that Florida played a killer schedule with six top 25 teams, including the Pac-12 champs. 

Key Injuries / opt-outs

Florida's starting QB Anthony Richardson is skipping the bowl game, and backup QB Jalen Kitna has been dismissed from the team. On defense starting lineman Gervon Dexter is opting out. A number of receivers are listed as questionable for the game.

Oregon State's Chance Nolan, backup QB, is transferring, while TE Luke Musgrave (#6 receiver) is opting out. #2 WR Anthony Gould is listed as questionable.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Oregon State is a big favorite, and sometimes big favorites fall flat in bowl games due to overconfidence. That won't happen here since Oregon State will have respect for their SEC opponent.
• Location: The game is a neutral site, but it's much closer to Oregon State, while being three time zones away from Gainesville.
• Coaching: No changes. 
• Motivation: No major advantage seen.
• Momentum: From last season, Florida remained the same while Oregon State added a few wins. The Beavers also have better in-season momentum winning their last three while Florida dropped their final two games.

Both teams should be at least fairly happy with this game and the Las Vegas location. Florida gets a ranked opponent and Oregon State plays an SEC foe with great history. Neither team was in line for much greater things, both having been eliminated from Playoff consideration long ago. We do see some momentum on Oregon State's side and the time zone is to their favor. Florida's QB pulling out seems to be a personal decision, not reflective of any general malaise on the team, as other star players have said they will be playing.

Final analysis

Oregon State is a consistent team that will always deliver a steady performance. Florida was quite erratic this year and will be even more so without their starting quarterback (or the backup). This will probably see them perform on the downside on offense. The question is how will the defense do? Can it slow down Oregon State enough to win the game? Defensive End Dexter Gavin said he'll play despite declaring for the NFL, so maybe that side of the ball does all right.

Oregon State has a lot of advantages here but Florida might rise to the occasion. They won't be surprised by anything the Beavers do, as half their schedule was top 25 teams and they beat two of them, including the Pac-12 champ. It's going to be tough playing with their 3rd string quarterback but he may rise to the occasion, and the defense is sound and can keep the game close. Everyone's writing Florida off here and that's when teams often surprise, maybe not winning, but keeping thing closer than expected.

Note: After investigating teams whose QB has opted out of bowl games, we see it's a pretty big deal—at least for teams that are passing-based, as all the examples we investigated were. It shouldn't be as big of a deal for a team like Florida. But we're adding a bit to the impact on Florida's offense.

Prediction:  Oregon State 24, Florida 17

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

2022 Fenway Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Cincinnati vs. Louisville

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

Fenway Bowl in Boston, MA
Time: Saturday, December 17 at 11:00 am ET
TV: ESPN

Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3) vs. Louisville Cardinals (7-5)

Too bad this matchup of teams who live in each other's backyards had to go all the way to Boston to make it happen, but it should still carry some heat for those who bother to show up—especially since Cincy hired away Louisville's coach days ago!

Vegas line/spread: Louisville by 2 (over/under 38.5)

Louisville is a slight favorite over the Bearcats. The over-under is very low due to both teams having really good defenses and average offenses. The line is up from 1 1/2, and the over has plunged almost a touchdown from 44 1/2 due to opt-outs and transfers on both offenses.

Strength power rating:    #27 Louisville 23,   #41 Cincinnati 20     

Best/Worst removed: Louisville 24-20

Turnover corrected: Louisville 23-21

Our power ratings basically agree with Vegas as usual, giving the Cardinals a bit more room but of course, that doesn't account for the fact that Cincy has Louisville's coach to scout them—though he says he won't be involved in that.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -1.5 Spread
Louisville	64%	61%
Cincinnati	36%	39%

Louisville wins most comparisons straight up and usually covers against a 1.5 point spread, too.

When Cincinnati has the ball

Cincinnati scoring offense(adj): #68	Louisville scoring defense(adj): #17
Cincinnati rushing offense(raw): #88	Louisville rushing defense(raw): #48
Cincinnati passing offense(raw): #44	Louisville passing defense(raw): #34

Cincy's average offense has to go up against a top 25 level Cardinal defense. The ground game probably doesn't work well for them and even their solid passing attack will find resistance—particularly due to the absence of starting QB Ben Bryant, who is out for the season. Backup Evan Prater struggled against Tulane, going 10 of 26. They're also missing their #1, #2, #4, and #5 receivers.

When Louisville has the ball

Louisville scoring offense(adj): #50	Cincinnati scoring defense(adj): #25
Louisville rushing offense(raw): #35	Cincinnati rushing defense(raw): #49
Louisville passing offense(raw): #92	Cincinnati passing defense(raw): #17

Another mediocre offense going up against a top 25 defense. QB Malik Cunningham is out with injury suffered against Kentucky and #1 receiver Tyler Hudson is opting out. At least the Cardinals have one area—the ground game—where their offense, at least in raw terms, is better than the Bearcat defense—though they are missing their #3 and #4 rushers.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Cincinnati: #5    Louisville: #27

Cincinnati has great special teams, but Louisville isn't bad either. No bid advantage here on paper but yet another reason the game could be close.

 

Cincinnati's season (9-3) • SOS: #79

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-3
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1

1. @Arkansas 24-31
2. Kennesaw St 63-10
3. @Miami OH 38-17
4. Indiana 45-24
5. @Tulsa 31-21
6. South Florida 28-24
7. @SMU 29-27
8. @Central Florida 21-25
9. Navy 20-10
10. East Carolina 27-25
11. @Temple 23-3
12. #16 Tulane 24-27 
    

Cincinnati lost most of their big games this season—the opener at Arkansas, the clash with UCF, and the game with Tulane that decided the C-USA title game slot. Throughout it though the Bearcats played extremely consistent football, only dipping a bit vs. USF in a game they won anyway. Don't expect a sub-par—or extra-great—performance from Cincinnati.

 

Louisville's season (7-5) • SOS: #48

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. @Syracuse 7-31
2. @Central Florida 20-14
3. #13 Florida St 31-35
4. South Florida 41-3
5. @Boston College 33-34
6. @Virginia 34-17
7. Pittsburgh 24-10
8. Wake Forest 48-21
9. James Madison 34-10
10. @#7 Clemson 16-31
11. North Carolina St 25-10
12. @Kentucky 13-26
    

Louisville's demeanor is the opposite of Cincinnati's composure—the Cardinals were up and down all year. They got blasted right off the bat by Syracuse, but recovered to beat UCF on the road (a team that beat Cincinnati). They played what turned out to be a great game vs. FSU and clobbered USF 41-3—but then they lost to Boston College. The Cards won four straight in style, but dropped 2 of their last three. Ultimately those late losses—to Clemson and Kentucky—can't really be held against them in a stretch where they went 4-2 against all winning teams in the 2nd half of the season.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

Starting QB Ben Bryant is out for the season for Cincinnati; #1 WR Tyler Scott (899 yds), #2 Tre Tucker (672), #4 Josh Whyle (326), and #5 Nick Mardner (218) have all opted out or transferred. Reserve D-back JQ Hardaway is transferring as well. Starting safety Jaquan Sheppard (50 tackles) is in the portal too. 

Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is out with injury; #3 rusher Tiyon Evans (525 yards) is opting out and #4 rusher Trevlon Cooley (278 yards) is tranferring.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Louisville is a slight favorite with Vegas; Cincy is unlikely to feel slighted, nor Louisville overconfident.
• Location: No advantage here at all, as both are traveling the exact same distance really.
• Coaching: Oddly enough, Cincinnati hired Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield to coach the Bearcats, making for a very unusual situation where the Cardinals may (or may not?) be motivated to beat their former head coach, who will have extensive working knowledge of his opponent! Cincinnati lost their own head coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin. The Cardinals have named Deion Branch their interim coach. 
• Motivation: Both teams will be motivated by their proximity/rivalry, and by the recent coaching change shenanigans!
• Momentum: Neither team had much momentum during the season nor at the end. Cincinnati played consistently the whole year. Compared to last season's 13-0, Cincy might feel a bit of a letdown while Louisville improved just a bit on their 6-6 regular 2022.

The coaching change is the gorilla in the room here. Scott Satterfield is Cincy's new coach, coming directly from Louisville, which would give them a huge advantage if he were to scout and/or coach the team. But Cincy has said that interim coach Kerry Coombs will coach the bowl game, so logistically the Bearcats shouldn't have any advantage.

But how will it affect the players on both sides? Both teams lost their coach, but only one team will be angry at the other team about it. Louisville might be motivated to win this game, more than Cincy. But let's face it, with the slew of transfers and opt-outs on both sides, is either team really motivated?

Final analysis

It's reasonable to think both teams will play pretty hard for their fans back home, but this game is nothing like it would have been if it were played closer to home. Then we'd have to look at how good each team is when they're at their best. Played in Boston, this game comes down to how good the teams are, flaws and all.

Cincinnati will miss starting QB Ben Bryant, who led them most of the season before a foot injury vs. Temple. Evan Prater was just 10 of 26 against Tulane. Meanwhile Louisville is without Malik Cunningham and several other key offensive players. It's no wonder the over/under fell from an already-low 44.5 to 38.5. Brock Domann hasn't been great but Louisville is more of a ground team.

The coaching situation might provide motivation (or not) for Louisville, but on the field, not having their starting QB and a truckload of receivers will affect Cincinnati more negatively. Neither team looks poised to score many points, which ought to keep the game close.

Prediction:  Louisville 20, Cincinnati 10

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

 

2022 Cure Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Troy vs. UTSA

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

Cure Bowl in Orlando, FL
Time: Friday, December 16 at 3:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#24 Troy Trojans (11-2) vs. #25 UTSA Roadrunners (11-2)

Two ranked, 11-2 teams? Can't do better than that for the first day of bowl games.

Vegas line/spread: UTSA by 2 1/2 (over/under 56)

Should be a close game as seen by the teams' records and the narrow spread. Troy was favored by 1 when we reviewed the game; the day before the game UTSA was a 1 point favorite, and now it's up to 2 1/2. The o/u is up from 54 1/2 to 56 after peaking at 57. 

Strength power rating:   #57 UTSA 26,   #63 Troy 24     

Best/Worst removed: UTSA 26-25

Turnover corrected: UTSA 26-25

Unlike the oddsmakers our power rating takes the Roadrunners as the close victor.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -1 Spread
Troy	49.7%	46.2%
UTSA	50.3%	53.8%

Can't get much closer than that: of 169 cross-compared performances UTSA wins 85 and loses 84. This is really a case where anything can happen, and overtime wouldn't be a surprise. We show Troy's odds as the 1 point favorite, so those are approximately reversed with UTSA as the favorite (either team covers at -1 about 46% of the time)

When Troy has the ball

Troy scoring offense(adj): #97	UTSA scoring defense(adj): #70
Troy rushing offense(raw): #106	UTSA rushing defense(raw): #70
Troy passing offense(raw): #47	UTSA passing defense(raw): #100

Troy's not great on offense while UTSA is fairly sound on defense. Though they run the ball pretty often their focus should be passing where they have a solid edge on UTSA's pass defense.

When UTSA has the ball

UTSA scoring offense(adj): #45	Troy scoring defense(adj): #32
UTSA rushing offense(raw): #50	Troy rushing defense(raw): #22
UTSA passing offense(raw): #12	Troy passing defense(raw): #38

The Roadrunners have a pretty good offense, but again the opposing defense is up to the task as Troy has a near top 25 quality D. They're particularly good against the run, which makes UTSA's prolific passing game key. Frank Harris is a dual-threat QB with a 31:7 ratio.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Troy: #60    UTSA: #36

A slight edge for UTSA here.

 

Troy's season (11-2) • SOS: #109

Non-conf losses: 1 • Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 6-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0

1. @Mississippi 10-28
2. Alabama A&M 38-17
3. @Appalachian St 28-32
4. Marshall 16- 7
5. @Western Kentucky 34-27
6. Southern Miss 27-10
7. Texas St-San Marcos 17-14
8. @South Alabama 10- 6
9. @Louisiana-Lafayette 23-17
10. Army 10- 9
11. Louisiana-Monroe 34-16
12. @Arkansas St 48-19
13. Coastal Carolina 45-26 
    

Troy lost 2 of their first three then charged to an 11-2 season and Sun Belt championship and Playoff Committee top 25 ranking. They have one non-conference loss (to Ole Miss, understandable) and didn't lose at home. Overall a pretty consistent effort, too, going 6-2 against the bowl field and finishing strong at the end.

 

UTSA's season (11-2) • SOS: #85

Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 5-2
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-1

1. Houston 35-37 3OT
2. @Army 41-38 OT
3. @#20 Texas 20-41
4. Texas Southern 52-24
5. @Middle Tennessee St 45-30
6. Western Kentucky 31-28
7. @Florida Int'l 30-10
8. North Texas 31-27
9. @UAB 44-28 2OT
10. Louisiana Tech 51-7
11. @Rice 41-7
12. UTEP 34-31
13. North Texas 48-27
    

Very similar to Troy, UTSA lost two of their first three then roared to a C-USA championship and Committee top 25 ranking at 11-2. They played really well in their last four games, with their 3 best efforts over this span. Also probably their worst, but they still beat UTEP.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

2nd leading rusher Brenden Brady is questionable for UTSA.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: Troy is a very slim favorite, neither school will feel slighted
• Location: Orlando, no big difference. Troy is closer but both are 1 time zone away in the same direction
• Coaching: No change. 
• Motivation: Both teams should be very motivated
• Momentum: Exactly the same for both teams for this year, as they followed the exact same track all year. But Troy didn't make a bowl game last year at 5-7 while UTSA was 12-1 in the 2021 regular season.

There's very little to go by here except maybe Troy is more psyched by their 11-2 finish than UTSA, as the Roadrunners were 12-2 overall last season. It's hard to imagine that UTSA won't be just as hyped after winning 10 straight games though.

Final analysis

This should be a great game, and a close game, and it's basically a coin flip between two great Group of Five teams. I would be very surprised if one blew out the other, and wouldn't be surprised if this game went into overtime. Hard to pick a winner between Vegas and our power rating, both of which show a hair's difference between the teams. Honestly if games still could end in a tie that's what I'd pick, so let's call it overtime and look at both team's red zone play to determine who wins in overtime.

Troy red zone offense: #95
UTSA red zone defense: #27

UTSA red zone offense: #17
Troy red zone defense: #57

There you have it, UTSA looks like the overtime winner.

Prediction:  UTSA 33, Troy 30 OT

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

 

2022 Bahamas Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Miami Ohio vs. UAB

View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here

Bahamas Bowl in Nassau, Bahamas
When: Friday, December 16 at 11:30 am ET
TV: ESPN

Miami Ohio Redhawks (6-6) vs. UAB Blazers (6-6)

First game of the bowl season, appropriately two 6-6 teams face off.

Vegas line/spread: UAB by 11 (over/under 45.5)

UAB is a whopping 10+ point favorite to beat the Redhawks. That's a big spread for two Group of Five teams with the same record, and double-digit favorites are uncommon in the bowl season. The over/under is very low due to both teams having poor offenses, particularly Miami. The line is up slightly from 10 and the o/u is up from 44.

Strength power rating:   #72 UAB 27,   #137 Miami OH 13    

Best/Worst removed: UAB 27-14

Turnover corrected: UAB 28-12

Our power rating backs up the Vegas spread, as UAB is much higher-rated than Miami. It's really that Miami is rated low, at #137 they rank below quite a few non-FBS teams.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -10 Spread
UAB	81%	57%
Miami OH	19%	43%

UAB wins a big majority of the game comparison, even against the early 10 point spread.

When Miami OH has the ball

Miami OH scoring offense(adj): #120	UAB scoring defense(adj): #52
Miami OH rushing offense(raw): #80	UAB rushing defense(raw): #94
Miami OH passing offense(raw): #121	UAB passing defense(raw): #24

Miami has trouble scoring, ranking #120 out of 131 FBS teams, and they face a pretty decent UAB scoring defense. They're bad at passing and UAB defends the pass well, though these are raw numbers and teams probably want to run on UAB's poor rush defense. Miami's not great running the ball either though. Basically they have a poor offense and on paper UAB's D keeps them in check.

When UAB has the ball

UAB scoring offense(adj): #90	Miami OH scoring defense(adj): #87
UAB rushing offense(raw): #5	Miami OH rushing defense(raw): #40
UAB passing offense(raw): #107	Miami OH passing defense(raw): #85

UAB's offense isn't much better than Miami's but 90th is quite a bit better than 120th, and they're facing a similar quality defense, hence the prediction for an average (27 or 28) amount of points scored. The real standout stat here is UAB rushing offense at #5 in the nation. While this is unadjusted for opposition, any top ten rushing team is a ground threat, and DeWayne McBride leads the nation with 1,713 yards. Miami's rush D doesn't rank bad but that's against a weak schedule, so it's not likely they'll shut UAB and McBride down.

Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Miami OH: #10    UAB: #77

If there's an equalizer for Miami it will be special teams, where the Redhawks excel and the Blazers are bland.

 

Miami OH's season (6-6) • SOS: #116

Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 3
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 0-5
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-0

1. @Kentucky 13-37
2. Robert Morris 31-14
3. Cincinnati 17-38
4. @Northwestern 17-14
5. @Buffalo 20-24
6. Kent St 27-24
7. @Bowling Green 13-17
8. Western Michigan 10-16
9. @Akron 27- 9
10. Ohio U. 21-37
11. @Northern Illinois 29-23
12. Ball St 18-17
    

Miami started the season terribly and didn't ever play great, but finished winning 3 out of 4 to go 6-6 just like last season. Their first two losses were broken up by a terrible 31-14 win over Robert Morris that was actually their worst effort by far. They lost 2 non-conference games and three times at home, not good signs for bowl teams, and went 0-5 vs. winning teams, too.

 

UAB's season (6-6) • SOS: #99

Non-conf losses: 2 • Home losses: 1
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 3-4
Record vs. top 25 teams: 0-2

1. Alabama A&M 59-0
2. @Liberty 14-21
3. Georgia Southern 35-21
4. @Rice 24-28
5. Middle Tennessee St 41-14
6. UNC-Charlotte 34-20
7. @Western Kentucky 17-20
8. @Florida Atlantic 17-24
9. #24 UTSA 38-44 2OT
10. North Texas 41-21
11. @#17 LSU 10-41
12. @Louisiana Tech 37-27
    

UAB's regular season fell short of last year's 8-4 finish, and most of their best games were early on as they ended 2-4 in the 2nd half of the season. They also have 2 non-conference losses. But the Blazers are almost .500 vs. the bowl field, and nearly beat #24 UTSA before falling in two overtimes. They won 2 of 3 at the end and you can't really count the loss to LSU.

Key Injuries / opt-outs

Nothing significant at this point.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

• Favorite: UAB is a solid favorite, almost too solid for the bowl season...
• Location: No advantage, though the Bahamas location could lead to distractions; no advantage
• Coaching: UAB named new coach Trent Dilfer to replace interim Bryan Vincent, who will coach the bowl game, contrary to what we heard previously.
• Motivation: UAB might be unmotivated after less-successful season
• Momentum: Both finished fairly well in their last few games

Psychology is the key to this game, and there's not much to go by. Miami is in the same situation as last year, while UAB is down a few wins to barely making a bowl at 6-6. But that probably pales compared to hiring a brand new coach, Trent Dilfer, to replace interim coach Bryan Vincent. Will this cause excitement and enthusiasm, or will players be angry that Vincent wasn't the choice? Apparently they wrote letters to the President to consider him and were ignored. So do they "win one for coach" now? Or is the whole thing a big distraction?

Final analysis

Miami played uniformly poor this season, while UAB had poor games with occasional spikes of quality. Those spikes tended to happen earlier in the season, so whether or not they have a strong showing depends on their motivation. Their path to victory is clear: they have a great advantage running the ball on offense, while Miami has no offense to speak of. But again, motivation trumps everything and UAB needs a reason to win.

This is obviously a lousy bowl game or it wouldn't be the first of the season and wouldn't have two 6-6 teams. But it's in the Bahamas so maybe UAB will see it as a good thing rather than a consolation prize for a .500 year. Sometime in bowl games underdogs suddenly thrive and do uncharacteristic things—like Miami suddenly finding and offense and scoring 45 points when their high for the year is 31. On paper this looks like an easy UAB win but the team might be angry about the coaching change situation and have a sluggish effort. Although Vincent is coaching the bowl game it can't be easy with the distraction of Dilfer moving into his office. We're going to pick a suprise underdog win here.

Prediction:  Miami Ohio 35, UAB 32

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.

 

Div II Playoffs: Pittsburgh State, NW Missouri wins lift MIAA conference

The Mid-America Intercollegiate Athletics Association (MIAA) doesn't get a lot of press in the overall college football world but apparently it's been flying under our radar even in Division II. 

In some ways the MIAA is the opposite of the NAIA Frontier conference, which became overrated in our power ratings due to few connections to the rest of the NAIA world (side note: As it turns out, the Frontier wasn't completely overrated, given that Carroll MT nearly beat Grand View, the consensus #2 team in NAIA).

The 12 MIAA member teams each played 11 games, all against one another. So there was really no way to rank the teams accurately amongst the rest of Division II. Pittsburgh ranked #9 in our Combined power rating, and #18 in Strength, while NW Missouri State languished around #43.

Both teams were chosen for the 28-team Division II playoff, and both got off to a great start. Pittsburgh State beat Indianapolis 35-0 and Northwest Missouri State did even better, crushing previously unbeaten Ouachita Baptist 47-17.

The combined effect of these two performances was to establish the power of the MIAA, and Pittsburgh State jumped to #1 in our power rating as of today. Northwest Missouri State jumped to #3, and Nebraska-Kearney, Emporia State, and Washburn all flew into the top 10. In all, 9 of the 12 MIAA teams are now in the top 25.

Having two non-representative games isn't much better than having zero games to establish a conference's strength. Clearly the MIAA was underrated before as the results have shown, but now the conference is vastly overrated. Since both Pittsburgh State and NW Missouri State are still alive in the playoff, more comparisons will be made and a truer relative rating will emerge. 

But it confirms that the "pod" to which they both belong is by far the toughest of the four. It contains not only the #1 team (according to the coaches' poll) Grand Valley, but also #3 Ouachita Baptist, #4 Pittsburgh State, #5 Ferris State, and #8 NW Missouri State. Five top eight teams in one 7-team pod? And now arguably the best four teams in the nation are left, and only one can even make the "final four"!

Grand Valley will host NW Missouri next, while Pittsburgh State is at Ferris State. Looks like a final four already. Super Region Three seems very likely to produce the odds-on Division II champion. Will the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (Grand Valley and Ferris) or the MIAA come out on top?

2022 Week 12 Preview: The Pac-12 is where it's at this weekend

Get ready to stay up a bit late on Saturday: the Pac-12 is the focus of the important games in this week's Playoff race. While the SEC has the very top teams—four in the current Committee top ten—they're taking the week off. #1 Georgia and (our projected) #3 Tennessee are 20+ point favorites over Kentucky and South Carolina. #8 Alabama is a 50 point favorite (our estimate) hosting Austin Peay. #11 LSU is a surprisingly low 2-touchdown favorite at home vs. UAB, so maybe pay attention to that one but by and large, the SEC is not where your focus should be. 

Instead it's the late evening football that contains the contenders battling it out. #7 Utah hosts #21 Oregon with a Pac-12 title appearance probably on the line. The Committee has Oregon #12 which reflects their current 8-2 status, and if the Ducks want to avoid ending up at #21 they need a win. It would also keep them in Pac-12 title contention—and as we see it, probably propels USC in the Playoff: USC's schedule hasn't been that tough so far but getting wins over UCLA, Notre Dame, and Utah/Oregon puts them 12-1 with a Pac-12 title and a 1-point road loss to a ranked team. That's a Playoff résumé. We see the Trojans beating Oregon but losing to Utah, so they want the Ducks to win this game.

Currently USC, Oregon, and Utah have one conference loss so the loser here is behind the 8-ball if #9 USC beats #15 UCLA as expected. Of course if UCLA pulls off the upset, then it leaves four teams with 2 losses still vying for a title game appearance. #16 Washington would be in play at 8-2; the Huskies are huge favorites against Colorado. And then there's #20 Oregon State who is no longer in the conference race but makes for six Pac-12 teams in our projected Final Top 25 and the current Committee Top 25 too. Who says the conference isn't good this year?

Projected Final Standings of CFP Committee: with Committee rank, Line, and opponent

Rnk Team           Comm Rec   Proj  Line  Opponent 
 1. Georgia          1  10-0  13-0 -22.5  @Kentucky
 2. Ohio State       2  10-0  13-0 -27.5  @Maryland
 3. Tennessee        5   9-1  11-1 -21.5  @South Carolina
 4. Clemson          9   9-1  12-1 -19.0  Miami FL
 5. Michigan         3  10-0  11-1 -18.0  Illinois 
 6. TCU              4  10-0  12-1  -2.5  @Baylor 
 7. Utah            10   8-2  11-2  -2.0  @ #21 Oregon
 8. Alabama          8   8-2  10-2 -50.0  Austin Peay
 9. USC              7   9-1  11-2  -2.5  @ #15 UCLA
10. UNC             13   9-1  11-2 -21.0  Georgia Tech
11. LSU              6   8-2  10-3 -14.5  UAB
12. Penn State      11   8-2  10-2 -19.0  @Rutgers
13. Mississippi     14   8-2  10-2  -2.5  @Arkansas
14. Kansas St       15   7-3  10-3  -7.5  @WVA
15. UCLA            16   8-2   9-3  +2.5  #9 USC
16. Washington      17   8-2   9-3 -31.0  Colorado
17. Florida St      19   7-3   9-3 -24.0  ULL
18. Notre Dame      18   7-3   8-4 -21.0  Boston College
19. UCF             20   8-2  11-2 -16.5  Navy
20. Oregon St       23   7-3   9-3  -8.0  @ASU
21. Oregon          12   8-2   8-4  +2.0  #7 Utah
22. Texas           --   6-4   8-4  -9.0  @Kansas 
23. Louisville      --   6-4   8-4  -4.0  NC State(24)
24. UTSA            --   8-2  11-2 -13.0  Rice
25. Troy            --   8-2  11-2 -15.0  ULM 
    others
--  Tulane          21   8-2   9-3  -3.5  SMU
--  Oklahoma St     22   7-3   8-4  -7.5  @Oklahoma
--  NC State        24   7-3   7-5  +4.0  @ #23 Louisville
--  Cincinnati      25   8-2  10-3 -17.0  @Temple

The non-SEC portion of the top 5 doesn't look like they'll be challenged either: #2 Ohio State and #4 Clemson are major favorites against Maryland and Miami. But #6 TCU is in another tight game at Baylor. Week in and week out, the Horned Frogs are narrow favorites (if they are favorites), partially due to TCU's low-ish power rating and more because of the high average level of the Big Twelve. There's parity and it's on the strong side: the entire conference is in the top 43 in our Strength power rating and 9 of the 10 are in the top 34.

Under the radar: #10 North Carolina is a team to keep an eye on, as they keep piling up the wins and have an actual (outside) shot at the Playoff. They should have an easy time at Georgia Tech, but it also seems like one of those games that could sneak up on a team. Same with #12 Penn State at Rutgers. And #13 Mississippi has an actual tough assignment, traveling to Arkansas after their big letdown vs. Alabama.

Salvageable seasons: #17 Florida State and #18 Notre Dame are not in Playoff contention but have turned rough starts into decent seasons. Both are expected to win easily but BC has been an Irish spoiler in the past and is coming off a big upset over NC State. #19 UCF is going for the Group of Five New Year's Six throne; we think they'll get it, winning the American over Committee-ranked Tulane (21) and Cincinnati (25). The Knights host Navy and the Bearcats travel to Temple while the Green Wave have a much tougher challenge Thursday night vs. SMU.

Filling it out: This year's top 25 has been a mess at the bottom; we figure there will be about four 4-loss teams in the final top 25 compared to just two last year, and that's with UTSA and Troy eventually making it at 11-2. #22 Texas will probably make it back in by season's end, assuming they can beat a tough Kansas team on the road this weekend. #23 Louisville has a win over UCF and ought to have a win over current Committee (24) NC State as the Cardinals are favored by Vegas. There are a number of other teams that should finish 8-4 and we'll have to see which team crowds their way in.

2022 Week 10 Preview: Bold Prediction - Georgia 56, Tennessee 21

This week's big game is #5 Tennessee at #1 Georgia, or in current Committee rankings, #1 at #3. And that is why I think Georgia will smoke Tennessee. 

According to various sources the betting public is going heavily for Tennessee, who is an 8 point underdog. Makes sense: It's probably a close game, so even if the Vols don't win they can cover. Our power rating has Georgia by 6 or 7. But I don't think it will be that close. There are so many people disrespecting the Bulldogs that it has to be getting back to them and motivating them. They see Tennessee ranked #1 by the Committee and hear that everyone's betting on UT. Then they hear stuff like this, from "an SEC coach" per ESPN:

"I won't be surprised if Tennessee scores 50," one coach said.

Think that won't motivate the Bulldog defense? And remember, Georgia is playing at home. They have a lot on the line, and they're not going to underestimate Tennessee after the Alabama win. Georgia needs to win this game to stay in the National Title race. Think about it: if Tennessee is 13-0, Georgia is 11-1 and probably out. If Alabama beats Tennessee then both are 12-1 and Georgia is behind two SEC teams. Either way they're in trouble.

Georgia has had their weak moments this year and less-than-stellar games. But when things are on the line they come through, like against Missouri. And when motivated and playing at home, stuff like Georgia 49, Oregon 3 happens. That win is far more impressive than a 3-point win at home vs. Alabama. And against an offense almost as good as Tennessee's.

When making a prediction, it's best to go bold or go home. Why say "Tennessee by 3" or "Georgia wins but Tennessee covers", who cares about that? Or "Tennessee might win, but I think..." of course Tennessee might win. That goes without saying. But I have the gut feeling that Georgia will have something to prove playing at home and the Tennessee hype train ends here. Georgia 56, Tennessee 21.

SportsRatings Projected Final Committee Top 25, with Committee Rank, Line and next opponent

Rnk Team           Comm  Rec  Proj  Line  This weekend
 1. Georgia          3   8-0  13-0  -8.0  #5 Tennessee
 2. Ohio State       2   8-0  13-0 -38.0  @Northwestern
 3. Clemson          4   8-0  13-0  -3.5  @Notre Dame
 4. USC              9   7-1  12-1 -21.5  @Cal
 5. Tennessee        1   8-0  11-1  +8.0  @ #1 Georgia
 6. Michigan         5   8-0  11-1 -26.0  @Rutgers
 7. Alabama          6   7-1  11-2 -13.5  @ #18 LSU
 8. Oregon           8   7-1  11-2 -31.5  @Colorado
 9. Penn State      15   6-2  10-2 -14.0  @Indiana
10. Mississippi     11   8-1  10-2  ---     IDLE
11. UCLA            12   7-1  10-2 -11.0  @ASU
12. Kansas St       13   6-2  10-3  +2.5  #20 Texas
13. TCU              7   8-0  10-3  -8.5  Texas Tech
14. Illinois        16   7-1  10-3 -17.0  Michigan St
15. Utah            14   6-2   9-3 -17.5  Arizona
16. UNC             17   7-1  10-3  -7.0  @Virginia
17. Syracuse        20   6-2   9-3  +3.5  @Pittsburgh
18. LSU             10   6-2   9-3 +13.5  #7 Alabama
19. Duke            --   5-3   9-3 -10.0  @Boston College
20. Texas           24   5-3   8-4  -2.5  @ #12 Kansas State
21. Baylor          --   5-3   8-4  +3.5  @Oklahoma
22. Wake Forest     21   6-2   8-4  -4.0  @NC State
23. Oklahoma St     18   6-2   8-4  EVEN  @Kansas
24. Oregon St       23   6-2   8-4  +4.5  @Washington
25. Purdue          --   5-3   8-4  -3.5  Iowa

Yes, there are other games this weekend—lots of them. Only one team, #10 Mississippi, is idle. With all the focus on Tennessee-Georgia, don't forget that our #3 Clemson has a tough road game at Notre Dame. For a lot of the season we thought this would be Clemson's one loss, until the Irish stumbled. But it's still only a 3 1/2 point game. The Tigers could take a loss here and control their destiny to an ACC championship and very likely make the Playoff at 12-1. But it's not close to the guarantee they'd have at 13-0.

#7 Alabama is at #18 LSU but is still a two-touchdown favorite. The teams are much tighter by the Committee rankings (#6 and #10) and being at LSU this might be a close game, especially considering how LSU is playing lately. I look for another Alabama escape.

TCU, ranked #7 by the Committee, can't afford a stumble and they have a tough game against Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs keep winning after falling behind, and as long as they keep doing that they're on their way to the Playoff. But they haven't convinced our computer yet; it sees potential losses at Texas and Baylor, and against K-State in the title game. A convincing win this weekend might convince our computer that the Frogs can make it unblemished—and they might have to be unblemished to make the top four.

Many Ranked Underdogs

#12 Kansas State hosts #20 Texas and is actually a field goal underdog; our projection takes the Wildcats here on their way to a Big 12 title. Another ranked underdog is #17 Syracuse, who the oddsmakers say will lose at Pitt. Again we go with our favorite, the Orange. #21 Baylor is a 3 1/2 point favorite at Oklahoma. We go with the Bears.  

We do agree with a few of the "upsets": #24 Oregon State is a 4 1/2 point underdog at Washington, and we agree. And #23 Oklahoma State vs. Kansas is a pick' em; we have the Jayhawks winning this game. This is why we end up with so many teams projected at 8-4—the Pac-12 and Big Twelve have a lot of good teams but few great ones. Same goes for the Big Ten and ACC, there is a solid middle of 8-4 level teams. Only the SEC has a stark dividing line, with five teams going 9-3 or better and pretty much 7-5 and worse down the line.

A few other teams might have close calls too. #22 Wake Forest is one of seven ACC teams that could finish in the lower half of the Top 25; they face NC State, another projected 8-4 team. They're a 4 point favorite, but we have the Wolf Pack winning at home. So why is Wake ranked and NC State isn't? It's really close, and Wake's wins over UNC and Syracuse (which haven't happened yet) put them ahead in the future. #25 Purdue hosts Iowa and is a slim favorite. We don't think the Boilermaker offense will score much on Iowa's defense, but that isn't a big cause for worry given Iowa's offense.

2022 Week 7 Preview: Five big games featuring Clemson, USC, Alabama, and Michigan

Now that the conference season is in full swing, the games are heating up. This week there are FIVE games where both teams are ranked in our Projected Final Committee Top 25. In three more games, our ranked team is the betting underdog. And then there's yet another game game featuring two undefeated teams (one unranked in our Final 25).

The intra-Final 25 games feature four teams in our top six: #3 Clemson, #4 USC, #5 Alabama, and #6 Michigan. All four are currently 6-0 and are projected to finish undefeated or with a single loss. Three of the four are narrow favorites while one is actually an underdog!

• #3 Clemson at #22 Florida State: A loss by the Tigers wouldn't keep them out of the ACC title game and they could still finish 12-1. But that might not be good enough if the SEC title game is a close affair.
• #4 USC at #24 Utah: With a loss here the Trojans would no longer control their own destiny to a Pac-12 title, and as mentioned above a 12-1 Pac-12 champ isn't guaranteed a top four Playoff finish. A critical game for USC and they're actually the betting underdog. We had them losing this game until last weekend's results came in.
• #5 Alabama at #14 Tennessee: The Tide can lose this game and still control their destiny to the Playoff; in fact, so can Tennessee. A 12-1 SEC champ makes the Playoff 100% of the time. The Georgia game is the one the Vols have to win, and 'Bama too (assuming they meet the Bulldogs in the SEC championship)
• #6 Michigan vs #12 Penn State: A must-win for Penn State, Michigan could drop this game and most likely make the Big Ten title game by beating Ohio State. This assumes the Buckeyes will beat the Nittany Lions though. Basically if Penn State wins they're on par with Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten East and have to be considered in future equations.

SportsRatings Projected Final CFP Committee Top 25: post-week 7 with Line and Opponent

Rnk Team            Rec  Proj  Line  This week
 1. Georgia         6-0  13-0 -38.0   Vanderbilt 
 2. Ohio State      6-0  13-0   ---    idle       
 3. Clemson         6-0  13-0  -3.5 @ #22 FSU       
 4. USC             6-0  13-0  +3.5 @ #24 Utah       
 5. Alabama         6-0  12-1  -7.5 @ #14 Tennessee       
 6. Michigan        6-0  11-1  -7.0   #12 Penn St      
 7. Oregon          5-1  11-2   ---    idle       
 8. Wake Forest     5-1  11-1   ---    idle          
 9. Texas           4-2  11-2 -16.5   Iowa State      
10. Mississippi     6-0  11-1 -15.0   Auburn       
11. TCU             5-0  11-2  -4.0   Oklahoma St       
12. Penn State      5-0  10-2  +7.0 @ #6 Michigan       
13. UCLA            6-0  10-2   ---    idle      
14. Tennessee       5-0  10-2  +7.5   #5 Alabama       
15. Illinois        5-1  10-3  +6.5   Minnesota      
16. Syracuse        5-0   9-3  -3.5   #17 NC State       
17. NC State        5-1   9-3  +3.5 @ #16 Syracuse       
18. UCF             4-1  12-1 -23.0   Temple        
19. South Alabama   4-1  12-1 -17.0   UL-Monroe        
20. Notre Dame      3-2   8-4 -17.0   Stanford       
21. BYU             4-2  10-2  +1.5   Arkansas        
22. FSU             4-2   8-4  +3.5   #3 Clemson       
23. San Jose St     4-1  12-1  -8.5 @ Fresno St       
24. Utah            4-2   8-4  -3.5   #4 USC       
25. Washington St   4-2   9-3  +3.5 @ Oregon St     

The other intra-top 25 game doesn't have as big of repercussions: #16 Syracuse hosts #17 NC State. Like Vegas we have the Orange here, and if they lose then their stay in the top 25 might be short. NC State been projected as lofty as 11-1 at times and can still achieve that. Syracuse technically could achieve 13-0 but we don't think that's realistic at this juncture. A big win by the Orange might change the computer's mind though.

The three other "ranked" teams that are Vegas underdogs are as follows:

• #15 Illinois vs. Minnesota (4-1): This one's a mystery as Illinois has really played well lately (the 9-6 Iowa win was between two of the nation's best defenses) while Minnesota laid an egg at home vs. Purdue prior to a bye week. Other than that the Gophers looked great, so the oddsmakers apparently consider that result a fluke. In our current Bayesian/Strength combo ratings Minnesota is still ahead in the Bayesian portion, but Strength is getting to be more accurate week by week and the game is at Illinois. Minnesota is projected to be 8-4 right now so they'll get back in the Final 25 if they get the win.
• #21 BYU vs. Arkansas (3-3): BYU is another home underdog and we agree the game should be close; BYU needed overtime to beat Baylor and Arkansas is probably comparable. The Razorbacks have lost three in a row now and might not be at their best mentally to head off to Provo for a non-conference game. 
• #25 Washington State at Oregon State: The Cougars and Beavers are both 4-2 but again, we favor the home team. The oddsmakers do not, picking Oregon State by about a field goal. Neither team has much of a shot at the Playoff if any, but there's Projected Top 25 bragging rights at stake!

And finally, another big game that's tagged to be pretty close: #11 TCU vs. Oklahoma State. Both teams are 5-0 but only the Horned Frogs make our projected Top 25. The Cowboys are slated to finish 8-4 at this point, but beating TCU would go a long way in keeping their dreams alive, and most importantly, get them back in our projection.

 

2022 Week 6 Preview: TCU and Kansas take center stage

Normally at this time of the year, a huge Big Twelve confrontation is the most important game of the week, and this year is no exception. Except that instead of the Red River Rivalry (nee Shootout), it's undefeated TCU vs. undefeated Kansas that the nation is focused on.

TCU has won us over in just four games and is favored to go 13-0 and make the Playoff. Crazy? We'll see if they last up at those heights. Kansas is 5-0 but we're not sold on them yet as anything other than a 6-6 bowl team. That could change in Lawrence; the Horned Frogs are just a touchdown favorite but should win by double digits if they're to maintain their status in our projection.

The "other" Big Twelve game is between #23 Texas and #25 Oklahoma; both have two losses and only a very small shot at the Playoff because of that. Neither is out of the Big Twelve race, however, especially Texas who has a loss to Alabama on the books. #24 Kansas State is also in the hunt and just a tiny favorite to beat Iowa State on the road.

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff standings, with projected record, Line, and this week's opponent:

Rnk Team            Rec  Proj  Line  This week
 1. Alabama         5-0  13-0 -24.0  Texas A&M 
 2. Ohio State      5-0  13-0 -26.5  @ Michigan St
 3. TCU             4-0  13-0  -7.0  @ Kansas (5-0)
 4. Clemson         5-0  12-1 -20.5  @ Boston College
 5. Georgia         5-0  12-1 -30.0  @ Auburn
 6. Michigan        5-0  11-1 -21.0  @ Indiana
 7. Utah            4-1  11-2  -4.5  @ #19 UCLA
 8. USC             5-0  11-1 -13.0  Washington St
 9. NC State        4-1  11-1  -3.5  FSU
10. Penn State      5-0  10-2   ---     idle
11. Oregon          4-1  11-2 -13.0  @ Arizona
12. Wake Forest     4-1  10-2 -16.5  Army
13. Mississippi     5-0  10-2 -18.0  @ Vanderbilt
14. Washington      4-1  10-2 -14.0  ASU
15. Illinois        4-1  10-3  -3.5  Iowa
16. LSU             4-1   9-3  +3.0  #17 Tennessee
17. Tennessee       4-0   9-3  -3.0  @ #16 LSU
18. Notre Dame      2-2   9-3  -3.5  =BYU
19. UCLA            5-0   9-3  +4.5  #7 Utah
20. Maryland        4-1   9-3  -3.0  Purdue
21. Minnesota       4-1   9-3   ---     idle
22. South Alabama   4-1  12-1   ---     idle
23. Texas           3-2   9-4  -7.0  =#25 Oklahoma
24. Kansas St       4-1   9-3  -2.0  @ Iowa St
25. Oklahoma        3-2   9-3  +7.0  =#23 Texas

The top game between two ranked teams (in our Playoff projections) is between #7 Utah and #19 UCLA. With UCLA 5-0 it might be better for the Pac-12 if the Bruins come out on top. It would also be better for South Alabama's New Year's Six chances. #8 USC, #11 Oregon, and #14 Washington are all double-digit favorites in their contests in the still-wide-open Pac-12

The only other intra-top 25 game is in the SEC, with #16 LSU the underdog vs. #17 Tennessee. In our projection LSU is Tennessee's 3rd loss despite Tennessee being #7 and LSU #16 in the referenced power rating. It's a tight game, tilting only to LSU due to home field advantage, and the Vols could regain their top 10 status with a win. #1 Alabama and #5 Georgia are huge favorites in their SEC contests, as is #13 Mississippi. 

Can FSU make a comeback? A few weeks ago FSU suddenly stormed our rankings with a 12-1 projection...then lost to Wake Forest. Beating #9 NC State could put them back on the map, in a more realistic space. It would also destroy the Wolfpack's Playoff hopes. Currently #4 Clemson is picked to just barely make the Playoff at 12-1 and Boston College isn't supposed to offer too much resistance this week. Nor is #12 Wake Forest supposed to have much trouble with Army, and don't expect another shootout like last year's 70-56. We project a 42-20 win for the Deacs, pretty close to the 65.5 over/under.

The Big Ten has a couple of interesting games. Interesting on paper. Iowa at #15 Illinois will test the Illini's sudden viability as a contender. These teams both have top five defenses, so it could be one of the more boring games you've seen all year. Illinois' offense is stagnant while Iowa's is non-existant. Illinois is just a 3 1/2 point favorite but they have to win by a couple of touchdowns to keep their rating. A shutout wouldn't shock us based on the Illinois defense and Iowa offense, but we've seen a lot of new-kids-in-town get shot down by an upset in recent weeks, so Illinois (and TCU) are on upset alert. #20 Maryland has a tougher test, we think, hosting Purdue. This one our computer agrees with the spread on, but my hunch is Purdue hands Maryland another loss.

And finally, #18 Notre Dame vs. BYU. This game was on our radar from the start but has been greatly diminished in importance week by week. Now it's the final nail for either team's Playoff hopes, not that either in in good position right now. The Irish have 2 losses, which in the Playoff's short history means they're out, and BYU has one bad loss which has been prohibitive for non-Power-Five schools. We're not even sure which outcome makes things more interesting. Should be a good game, though.

2022 Week 5 Preview: Oklahoma vs. TCU, Clemson vs. NC State

Week Four Five is when things should start getting serious. But across the country, big matchups are still relatively few and far between.

The biggest game on our radar is #4 Oklahoma at #22 TCU, a game that could quickly end most of Oklahoma's hopes and make the Horned Frogs a contender. The Sooners' loss last week was a blow but not a fatal one as they still outrank a slew of Big Twelve hopefuls including TCU, #21 Baylor, and #22 Kansas State. A TCU win would put Oklahoma in the same "wannabe" category, and weighed down by two losses. TCU is a bit of a mystery still, having played just two games against FBS opponents, one of those being hapless Colorado. Oklahoma is about a touchdown favorite and I expect an even tougher challenge than that. But Baylor has a tough challenge too, being only a 2 point favorite vs. 3-0 Oklahoma State, and Kansas State doesn't have a gimme itself vs. Texas Tech. The Big 12 has a lot of parity and it may keep the conference out of the Playoff again.

The other clash between top 25 Playoff Contenders is #12 Clemson and #18 NC State. Just a few weeks ago this was a much bigger game—it looked like NC State's only loss, and the one that prevented then from winning the ACC and going 13-0. Since then, NC State's forecast has faded to include 3 losses, while Clemson looks like a 10-2 team also possibly shut out of the conference title game. The winner here has the inside track to challenge #6 FSU as the new ACC favorite. The Seminoles have a "prove it" game against Wake Forest, as in, "prove you deserve to be forecast to finish 12-1!" Their road to the ACC title is full of razor-close wins so at any point we might see their odds drop, which is an opening for either Clemson or NC State to take advantage.

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings with projected record & Line for next opponent

Rnk Team            Rec   Proj  Line   Opponent 
 1. Georgia         4-0   13-0  -28.0  @ Missouri
 2. Ohio State      4-0   13-0  -40.5  Rutgers
 3. Alabama         4-0   12-1  -17.5  @ Arkansas
 4. Oklahoma        3-1   12-1   -6.5  @ #22 TCU
 5. Oregon          3-1   12-1  -17.0  Stanford
 6. Florida St      4-0   12-1   -7.0  Wake Forest
 7. Michigan        4-0   11-1  -11.0  @ Iowa
 8. Minnesota       4-0   12-1  -12.5  Purdue
 9. USC             4-0   11-1  -25.5  Arizona St
10. Tennessee       4-0   10-2  -----  idle
11. Washington      4-0   11-1   -2.5  @ UCLA
12. Clemson         4-0   10-2   -6.5  #18 NC State
13. Utah            3-1   10-3  -10.5  Oregon St
14. Penn State      4-0    9-3  -26.5  Northwestern
15. Notre Dame      2-2    9-3  -----  idle
16. BYU             3-1   10-2  -24.5  Utah St
17. Pittsburgh      3-1   10-3  -22.0  Georgia Tech
18. NC State        4-0    9-3   +6.5  @ #12 Clemson
19. Texas A&M       3-1    9-3   +4.0  @ Miss State
20. Cincinnati      3-1   12-1   -9.5  @ Tulsa
21. Baylor          3-1    9-4   -2.0  Oklahoma St
22. TCU             3-0    9-3   +6.5  #4 Oklahoma
23. Kansas St       3-1    9-3   -8.0  Texas Tech
24. Wisconsin       2-2    9-3   -7.0  Illinois
25. South Alabama   3-1   12-1   -9.0  @ UL-Lafayette

Other close games include #11 Washington at UCLA. Both are 4-0 but the Huskies became darlings of our projection recently while UCLA fell to a 7-5 outlook. The Bruins could help reverse that with a win Saturday. Washington has the lowest projection of any 11-1 team partly due to uncertainty they can pull it off, and also lack of big wins if they do. As well as having #5 Oregon and #9 USC project to 11-1, with #13 Utah currently the tiebreaker winner to play in the conference title game. Unlike the parity-ridden Big 12, the Pac-12 has a lot of separation between the haves and have-nots, which gives them several good candidates for the Playoff—provided that one comes out of the pack relatively unscathed. For that, Washington and USC are the conference's best hope as they are still unbeaten. #13 Utah has a loss to Florida and faces tough Oregon State next. #5 Oregon has a terrible loss on the books so it might be best for the conference if they lost to Stanford, though that would be a considerable upset.

Texas A&M is a slight underdog to Mississippi State, and their 9-3 projection includes that as a loss. In other words, the Aggies can improve their ranking with a win over the Bulldogs, who are highly-rated but projected 8-4 vs. a very tough schedule. Ultimately A&M still controls their fate due to future games with Alabama and then, if they've done really well, Georgia. Both the Tide and the Bulldogs have road games where they're strongly favored, basically jockeying for position in the top three of any ranking system.

The Big Ten became more interesting with the surge of #8 Minnesota. The Gophers look to be for real and they can solidify that against Purdue. #7 Michigan, like Minnesota, looks capable of sweeping their schedule outside of #3 Ohio State. But first they have to win at Iowa, something that hasn't been easy for them in a while. The spread looks about right from our vantage point—not easy, but a solid, low-scoring win. #14 Penn State is quietly waiting for their chance in the big games, while #24 Wisconsin is already a long-shot at 2-2 and faces another potential upstart team in Illinois, who ranks #12 in Strength right now! We'll see if that holds up.

Outside the Power Five: our only interlopers are #20 Cincinnati and #25 South Alabama, both projected to go 12-1 but facing fairly solid challenges at Tulsa and Louisiana-Lafayette this weekend. The odds look about right for both—neither is a gimme. After outperforming all season, the lines might have finally caught up to the Jaguars; they would have been hefty underdogs had this game been played in week one.

Group of Five hopeful Marshall another upset victim, falling to Bowling Green in overtime

Just last week Marshall upset Notre Dame and along with Air Force joined the ranks of possible 13-0 Group of Five conference champs looking for a New Year's Six bowl bid.

Yesterday Air Force fell to lowly Wyoming 17-14 and on Saturday Marshall lost to formerly winless Bowling Green, 34-31 in overtime. 

The loss underscores the reason why Group of Five teams are rarely taken seriously by the national football press—lack of consistency. Even the top Group of Five teams seem susceptible—especially on the road—in games even against very lowly opponents.

Of the two games Marshall's was perhaps the more surprising, as the Herd were 18 point favorites to Air Force's 15 points. But both had warning sigs: Air Force won both their first 2 games by 28+ points, which seems to instill overconfidence in teams that didn't have high expectations entering the season (See also Kansas State, big winners in their first two games but upset by Tulane today).

Marshall's warning sign was last week's win over Notre Dame; you always have to prepare for the letdown following the big high.

The Herd have a very forgiving schedule (one reason why a 13-0 finish was a possibility) but they might no longer be favored against James Madison and Appalachian State going forward. 

Hopefully another Group of Five team will emerge with a strong possibility for a 13-0 finish, as it tends to make things more interesting the more undefeated teams there are. But if the top candidates keep losing to some of their weakest competition, it's hard to have much confidence in any of them to achieve perfection!

 

Huge upset as Wyoming tops Air Force, 17-14

Not many people were looking at Friday night's games as very crucial, nor will most remark that Wyoming pulled off a major upset against Air Force, but the Cowboys' win spoils a potential undefeated season by the Falcons.

Air Force was a 15 point favorite, ranked #39 to Wyoming's #119 in our Baysian-updated power rating. Air Force started the year #56 but two solid wins—48-17 over FCS power Northern Iowa, and 41-10 over Pac-12's Colorado—upgraded their outlook enough that we projected them to get past Boise State for the Mountain division title, and top Fresno for the MWC championship at 13-0. At least, game-by-game, that's what they had the potential to do.

Obviously that's in the past now. We had them projected 18th in the final Playoff standings, too, with a decent chance to be the New Year's Six rep from the non-Power Five conferences. That, too, is in serious doubt. 

Air Force's rosy forecast depended mainly on their easy schedule; they really only face one team—Boise State—that ranks in the top 50, so that game with their only big hurdle to 12-0, it seemed. Another top 50 foe—Fresno State—awaited if they made the conference championship game.

But losing to what looks like a bottom 25 opponent in Wyoming makes their odds of beating Boise a lot lower, and introduced the possibility of many more losses along the way. Air Force seemed to have the perfect conditions—a strong team with a very weak schedule—for an undefeated season, but either the Falcons are not nearly as good as their first few games indicated, they lack consistency, or they got overconfident quickly and felt Wyoming wasn't a serious threat.

It's also possible that they just aren't a good road team. After racking up over 1,000 rushing yards in their first two (home) games, the Falcons had under 50 yards rushing at the half.

And maybe Wyoming is a lot better than we think; they're 3-1 now after we projected a 2-10 season for the Cowboys.

As always, two games is not enough to tell how a team is going to do; there are a LOT of big surprises in game three, it seems. And it leaves Air Force a big question mark going forward.

2022 Week 3: Slow week 3 features BYU again; Ohio State, Oklahoma on upset alert?

Week 3 is here and we're still plagued with FBS vs. FCS matchups. When will they go away? At least among our top teams—our projected final finish for the Playoff—there are only three of those. But there are only two games between top 25 teams

Our #9 team, Oregon, hosts #12 BYU in a huge game for both teams. For BYU we consider it their only probable loss. A win at Oregon puts them on track for 12-0, and into a grey area for Playoff consideration. Now that Notre Dame has 2 losses, a win over the Irish won't get them there, and Oregon already lost to Georgia 49-3. So even going 12-0, the Cougars probably need one of their other opponents—Baylor, or Arkansas—to win their conference, or nearly so, to push BYU into the top 4. This game is big for Oregon because it really reveals what kind of team we'll be looking at the rest of the season: the one who got destroyed by Georgia, or the one who beat Eastern Washington 70-14. 

Rnk  Team         Rec?   This week         Line
 1. Georgia       13-0   @South Carolina   -24.5
 2. Ohio State    13-0   #25 Toledo        -31.0
 3. Oklahoma      13-0   @Nebraska         -13.5
 4. Alabama       12-1   UL-Monroe         -49.5
 5. Clemson       12-1   Louisiana Tech    -33.0 
 6. Utah          11-2   San Diego St      -21.0
 7. Michigan      11-1   UConn             -47.0 
 8. NC State      11-1   Texas Tech         -9.5
 9. Oregon        11-2   #12 BYU            -4.0
10. Tennessee     10-2   Akron             -47.5
11. Penn State    10-2   @Auburn            -3.0 
12. BYU           11-1   @#9 Oregon         +3.5
13. Oregon St     10-2   Montana St       (-18.5)
14. Marshall      13-0   @Bowling Green    -18.0
15. Miami FL      10-3   @Texas A&M         +6.0
16. Pittsburgh    10-2   @Western Mich     -11.0
17. Purdue        10-2   @Syracuse          +1.0
18. Air Force     13-0   @Wyoming          -15.5
19. Arkansas       9-3   Missouri St      (-20.0)
20. Mississippi    9-3   @Georgia Tech     -14.5
21. Kentucky       9-3   Youngstown St    (-33.5)
22. Notre Dame     9-3   California        -10.0
23. Cincinnati    12-1   @Miami Ohio       -21.0
24. Baylor         9-4   Texas State       -31.0
25. Toledo        12-1   @#2 Ohio State    -31.0

Any Major Upsets?

Other than that game it's a pretty dull week on paper, which is why we need upsets. We're looking at our #25, Toledo, vs. #2 Ohio State. Can the Rockets shock the world? If they do, they're a potential 13-0 which would make them a potential Playoff team, given a win over Ohio State. We can dream can't we? The Buckeyes are a 31 point favorite, much more than Notre Dame was vs. Marshall. In all likelihood both teams remain right where they are in our rankings.

The other upset alert we can see is #3 Oklahoma at Nebraska. Nebraska is like a wounded animal right now, cornered in its den. Oklahoma is the predator, but not particularly hungry. Do the Sooners really want to beat up on the Cornhuskers right now? Is there any time in the last 50 years they've cared less about this game? Nebraska is a wild card, they might fold like a deck of cards and lose by 50 or come out fighting and keep it close. They're good at keeping things close, that's been they're style all last year and so far this year. Ironically, they might get the last bounce right after Scott Frost is gone.

A few other games are interesting, too: #15 Miami travels to Texas A&M and is the underdog to the ailing Aggies. It's one of two games we expect the Hurricanes to lose, so a win here really boosts them. A&M is projected to be just 4-8 by ESPN's FPI, while we still have them going 8-4, so this home game will answer a lot of questions. And while our projection favors #17 Purdue slightly, the oddsmakers have Syracuse winning at home.

There are a few huge lines here: Alabama favored by almost 50 over ULM, Michigan -47 vs. UConn, and Tennessee by 47.5 over Akron. All three of those dwarf the estimates we make for the FCS matchups this week: We see #13 Oregon State beating a solid Montana State team by less than 20, which is about what #19 Arkansas should do vs. Missouri State. #21 Kentucky is a near-5-touchdown favorite over Youngstown State but far short of the biggest spreads on the board.

How About Minor Upsets?

A few other games on the board have single-digit odds. #11 Penn State is a very slight favorite at Auburn. And #8 NC State is a pretty slim favorite at Texas Tech. We agree with the former but don't rate the Red Raiders very highly and make them 2-touchdown underdogs. But the Wildcats have yet to prove themselves, slipping just a bit each week so far.

And speaking of proving themselves, #22 Notre Dame isn't a guarantee at home vs. California. But I have the feeling they'll be in "Must Win" mode this weekend and cover easily. They need to get their new coach his very first victory, and if they don't rise to the occasion now the whole season is a bust.