SportsRatings: College Football

Baylor 21, Oklahoma State 16: Cincinnati in with win, Notre Dame gets big boost

Baylor led almost the entire game with the help of 4 picks and held on with a goal-line stand to beat Oklahoma State in the rematch, knocking Oklahoma State out of a near-certain Playoff berth and ushering in Cincinnati and probably Notre Dame, too, assuming the Bearcats take care of Houston later today.

The Baylor win moves Cincinnati to #3 with a 76.6% probability, up 28.6% from this morning. Notre Dame is another major recipient as the dynamic changes with an 11-2 Alabama: now Notre Dame is a 1-loss team with their only defeat to a solid Playoff team. At the 5 vs. 6 spot that's not a big difference, but between #4 and #5 the 1-loss team has a big advantage. The win also moves Baylor into Playoff contention but they're probably #6 with the tight win, depending on how Alabama does against Georgia. Baylor moved from a projected #11 to #6, up 26% from a mere 1.7% chance before the game. 

The race for the 4th spot, assuming Georgia beats Alabama, goes like this: Notre Dame has the edge because no 2-loss team has made it, and they're competing with a couple of 2-loss teams. Alabama's hope at 11-2 rests on the assumption that they're really one of the top four teams; they'll need to play Georgia really close to win that narrative. Baylor's hope rests on the Committee valuing conference championship above all else; an 11-2 Alabama doesn't have one, and Notre Dame didn't play for one.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee projection: partial update after 12/04 games as noted

LW  Rnk Team            CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds  %Chg ±Chg   This weekend:             
 1   1. Georgia          1   12-0  13-0   99.4  +4.6  ---   vs. #5 Alabama
 2   2. Michigan         2   11-1  12-1   85.7  +2.8  ---   vs. #15 Iowa
 4   3. Cincinnati       4   12-0  13-0   76.6 +28.6  up 1  (H) #24 Houston
 6   4. Notre Dame       6   11-1  11-1   53.1 +22.9  up 2  
 5   5. Alabama          3   11-1  11-2   36.2  -1.9  ---   vs. #1 Georgia
11   6. Baylor           9   11-2  11-2   27.7 +26.0  up 5  W Oklahoma St 21-16
 3   7. Oklahoma St      5   11-2  11-2    8.3 -68.9  dn 4  L Baylor 21-16
 8   8. Ohio State       7   10-2  10-2    4.2  -1.6  ---  
 9   9. Mississippi      8   10-2  10-2    2.2  -1.2  ---  
10  10. Wake Forest     16   10-2  11-2    1.9  -0.1  ---   vs. #19 Pittsburgh
12  11. Michigan St     11   10-2  10-2    1.6  +0.3  up 1  
13  12. Brigham Young   12   10-2  10-2    1.4  +0.4  up 1  
20  13. Utah            17   10-3  10-3    0.8  +0.8  up 7  W Oregon 38-10
14  14. Oklahoma        14   10-2  10-2    0.5  -0.2  ---   
15  15. Iowa            13   10-2  10-3    0.3   0.0  ---   vs. #2 Michigan
17  16. San Diego St    19   11-1  12-1   <0.1   0.0  up 1  (H) Utah State
 7  17. Oregon          10   10-3  10-3   <0.1  -12.7 dn 10 L Utah 38-10
18  18. NC State        18    9-3   9-3   <0.1   0.0  ---   
16  19. Pittsburgh      15   10-2  10-3   <0.1   0.0  dn 3  vs. #9 Wake Forest
19  20. Clemson         20    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0  dn 1  
21  21. Louisiana-Laf.  24   11-1  12-1    0.0   0.0  ---   (H) Appalachian St
22  22. Arkansas        22    8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  ---   
23  23. Kentucky        23    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0  ---   
24  24. Houston         21   11-1  11-2    0.0   0.0  ---   at #4 Cincinnati
25  25. Texas A&M       25    8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  ---   

The scenario changes more if Iowa upsets Michigan of course, but that can only provide even more boost for Cincinnati and Notre Dame. The only scenario that decreases odds for Notre Dame is a bad result from the Georgia-Alabama SEC title game. A very close Alabama loss is bad for Notre Dame, and an Alabama win is disastrous. The latter puts Georgia in direct competition with Notre Dame for the last spot.

Most assume that Georgia would win that battle—even getting the #3 spot to avoid an immediate rematch with presumed top seed Alabama. But on paper they aren't much different: both would have one loss to a solid Playoff team and not much in the way of big wins. Georgia's top-ranked win is 22nd ranked Arkansas, while Notre Dame beat Wisconsin who fell from the Committee rankings last week; both are 8-4. The teams SOS won't be too different, though the Alabama game will boost Georgia's ranking there.

But Georgia's play over the length of the season likely gets them the last spot, considering Notre Dame didn't have to risk getting another loss in a tough 13th game. So the Irish will root for Georgia to win big and knock Alabama out of consideration. It's the reason Georgia's odds went up 4.6% while Michigan's only went up 2.8%—the Bulldogs are in almost certainly now, win or lose, while Michigan needs to beat Iowa.

The other factor: a Cincinnati loss. One would think this clears another spot for Notre Dame but it might not be that simple. Replacing 12-1 Cincy with 11-1 Notre Dame, who lost to the Bearcats, might be a tough sell for the Committee if it's the last spot left due to a Georgia upset. Baylor would be strongly considered then. But the Committee hasn't seemed to care too much about public backlash in the past, and most commentators seem fine with 11-1 Notre Dame getting in if Cincinnati loses. The difference in overall SOS is stark and the Committee has usually valued that more than head-to-head among teams with similar records.

2021 Week 14, Friday: Oregon's Loss Adds Some Hope for Borderline Playoff Teams

Oregon got destroyed again by Utah, 38-10, eliminating perhaps the shortest of the longshots to make the Playoff. An Oregon win likely put them at #7 in the final standings, one spot ahead of Ohio State and made them our top-ranked 2-loss Power Five conference winner. They had little chance of slipping in—12.7% given the chance for chaos—but that was more than anyone else south of #6 Notre Dame.

Now with the Ducks relegated to the nether regions of the top 25 and 3-loss Utah unlikely to advance past #12 BYU—who beat the Utes earlier in the season—it leaves Ohio State our most likely longshot given the outcomes we project. And the Buckeyes have very little chance as a 10-2 team without a conference championship. They're up to 8.1%, mainly from finishing fairly close to the prize at #7, but that will dwindle in our final output tomorrow after all the games have been played.

It mainly took pressure off Notre Dame and Alabama's fears of being passed by an 11-2 Oregon, something that wasn't too likely to start with. But now if Alabama loses a close game to Georgia they don't have to worry about Oregon, at least.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee projection: partial update after Friday games (12/03/2021)

LW  Rnk Team            CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds  %Chg ±Chg   This weekend:             
 1   1. Georgia          1   12-0  13-0   97.0  +2.2  ---   vs. #5 Alabama
 2   2. Michigan         2   11-1  12-1   85.1  +2.2  ---   vs. #15 Iowa
 3   3. Oklahoma St      5   11-1  12-1   78.8  +1.6  ---   vs. #10 Baylor
 4   4. Cincinnati       4   12-0  13-0   49.2  +1.1  ---   (H) #24 Houston
 5   5. Alabama          3   11-1  11-2   38.7  +0.6  ---   vs. #1 Georgia
 6   6. Notre Dame       6   11-1  11-1   30.3  +0.1  ---   
 8   7. Ohio State       7   10-2  10-2    8.1  +2.3  up 1  
 9   8. Mississippi      8   10-2  10-2    4.1  +0.7  up 1  
10   9. Wake Forest     16   10-2  11-2    2.2  +0.2  up 1  vs. #19 Pittsburgh
11  10. Baylor           9   10-2  10-3    1.9  +0.3  up 1  vs. #4 Oklahoma St
12  11. Michigan St     11   10-2  10-2    1.6  +0.3  up 1  
13  12. Brigham Young   12   10-2  10-2    1.3  +0.3  up 1  
20  13. Utah            17   10-3  10-3    0.8  +0.8  up 7  W Oregon 38-10
14  14. Oklahoma        14   10-2  10-2    0.5  -0.2  ---   
15  15. Iowa            13   10-2  10-3    0.3   0.0  ---   vs. #2 Michigan
17  16. San Diego St    19   11-1  12-1   <0.1   0.0  up 1  (H) Utah State
 7  17. Oregon          10   10-3  10-3   <0.1  -12.7 dn 10 L Utah 38-10
18  18. NC State        18    9-3   9-3   <0.1   0.0  ---   
16  19. Pittsburgh      15   10-2  10-3   <0.1   0.0  dn 3  vs. #9 Wake Forest
19  20. Clemson         20    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0  dn 1  
21  21. Louisiana-Laf.  24   11-1  12-1    0.0   0.0  ---   (H) Appalachian St
22  22. Arkansas        22    8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  ---   
23  23. Kentucky        23    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0  ---   
24  24. Houston         21   11-1  11-2    0.0   0.0  ---   at #4 Cincinnati
25  25. Texas A&M       25    8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  ---   

Overall it's a pretty small piece of clarity. In our projection it also had the odd effect of knocking Pittsburgh down a few more spots, but Pitt can compensate for that by beating Wake Forest and they'll end up in the top 10 instead.

The other game tonight saw UTSA beat Western Kentucky 49-41 to finish 12-1 and with the C-USA. That gives them a small chance to break into the top 25 but their loss to North Texas was too resounding and recent for them to push Texas A&M out, and their win too narrow. Their best bet is for Louisiana-Lafayette to lose to Appalachian State, which would knock the Ragin' Cajuns out and open up a slot for the Roadrunners. Houston's #24 finish assumes a loss to Cincinnati already.

2021 Final Playoff Standings projection post-week 12: No changes, just more clarity

There's not a lot of change in our projections this week, which isn't a surprise since all the favored teams—the ones we favored at least—won as expected. Since ours is a Projection, those results were mostly already taken into account, whereas the Committee will have a lot of revising to do on Tuesday we don't.

Three teams had a chance to establish themselves as favorites to become 12-1 Power conference champions: Oregon, Wake Forest, and Michigan State. All three failed, often spectacularly. Of the three only the Spartans moved a lot from last week. Oregon, 3rd in the Committee rankings, was #7 last week on our projection and drops one spot. Wake Forest was #8 and falls to #10.

In Oregon's case it was the magnitude of the loss: 38-7 doesn't play well with the Committee. It also puts a lot of doubt as to whether the Ducks can win the rematch, but they're still (barely) pencilled in as Pac-12 champs. That could change.

Wake Forest was only 10th per the Committee, so after dropping for their big loss to Clemson they'll be lucky to claw their way back in the top ten. The loss was expected but another result—Pitt's win over Virginia—changed their ACC Coastal foe and made it a much tougher proposition to finish 11-2. It's close to 50/50 vs. Pittsburgh for the ACC title.

Meanwhile, while we're saying there are no changes, somehow there is a new #1 team. Georgia moves into the top spot for the first time this year in a paradoxical move: they're still pegged to (barely) lose the SEC title game to Alabama, but their odds to make the Playoff are greater than Alabama's given the potential scenarios. That is, a 12-1 Georgia is very likely still in, an 11-2 Alabama is very likely out. So while the Bulldogs only finish at the top if they go 13-0, their odds have moved them there despite a forecast 12-1 finish, and they gain more in odds percentage than any team this week. Alabama's difficulties vs. Arkansas didn't make the prospect of beating Georgia any more likely, that's for sure.

Ohio State and Oklahoma State hold as the other entrants. The Buckeyes demolished Michigan State almost exactly parallel, quarter for quarter, the way Georgia did to Charleston Southern. And the Cowboys blanked Texas Tech, which doesn't happen often. The Red Raiders were averaging over 33 points per game and hadn't been shut out since 1997.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee Rankings final projection: post-week 12 (11/22/2021 w/last week's CFP ranking, current and projected record)

LW  Rnk Team           CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds  %Chg  ±Chg  Results:            
 2   1. Georgia         1   11-0  12-1   78.9  +8.2  up 1  W Charleston 56-7
 1   2. Alabama         2   10-1  12-1   76.2  +3.4  dn 1  W Arkansas 42-35
 3   3. Ohio State      4   10-1  12-1   71.4  +5.0  ---   W Michigan St 56-7
 4   4. Oklahoma St     9   10-1  12-1   64.5  +4.4  ---   W @Texas Tech 23-0
 5   5. Cincinnati      5   11-0  13-0   37.6  +2.2  ---   W SMU 48-14
 6   6. Notre Dame      8   10-1  11-1   30.7  +1.6  ---   W Georgia Tech 55-0
 9   7. Michigan        6   10-1  10-2   12.9  +3.7  up 2  W @Maryland 59-18
 7   8. Oregon          3    9-2  11-2    7.8  -4.7  dn 1  L @Utah 38-7
11   9. Mississippi    12    9-2  10-2    6.2  -0.7  up 2  W Vanderbilt 31-17
 8  10. Wake Forest    10    9-2  11-2    4.6  -5.7  dn 2  L @Clemson 48-27
10  11. Baylor         11    9-2  10-3    3.0  -5.1  dn 1  W @Kansas St 20-10
12  12. Brigham Young  14    9-2  10-2    1.9  -4.0  ---   W @GA Southern 34-17
13  13. Oklahoma       13   10-1  10-2    1.4  -3.3  ---   W Iowa State 28-21
14  14. Iowa           17    9-2  10-2    1.0  -2.6  ---   W Illinois 33-23
20  15. Texas A&M      16    8-3   9-3    0.5  +0.2  up 5  W Prairie View 52-3
18  16. Pittsburgh     18    9-2  10-3    0.4  -0.2  up 2  W Virginia 48-38
17  17. Wisconsin      15    8-3   9-4    0.3  -0.4  ---   W Nebraska 35-28
16  18. UTSA           22   11-0  13-0    0.2  -0.6  dn 2  W UAB 34-31
19  19. Clemson        --    8-3   9-3    0.1  -0.3  ---   W Wake Forest 48-27
21  20. Utah           23    8-3   9-4   <0.1  -0.2  up 1  W Oregon 38-7
15  21. Michigan St     7    9-2   9-3   <0.1  -0.9  dn 6  L @Ohio State 56-7
23  22. Louisiana-Laf. --   10-1  12-1   <0.1   0.0  up 1  W @Liberty 48-14
24  23. Houston        24   10-1  11-2    0.0   0.0  up 1  W Memphis 31-13
25  24. Penn State     --    7-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  up 1  W Rutgers 23-0
--  25. NC State       20    8-3   8-4    0.0   0.0  new   W Syracuse 41-17

Dropped out: #22 Arizona State

Cincinnati and Notre Dame are #5 and #6 but despite close percentage numbers, their realities are pretty far apart. It's true that the Irish are putting up good performances—55-0 vs. Georgia Tech is something Georgia is unlikely to accomplish next week—but they are almost in a position of needing the Bearcats to lose to have any hope. There are many ways a spot can open up for Cincinnati, but even two spots opening up doesn't mean Notre Dame gets in. If spots are guaranteed for Georgia-Alabama, Ohio State-Michigan, and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State if they win out, then Cincinnati is well-situated to take the last slot—if the losing SEC team doesn't. But any chaos—a Wisconsin Big Ten win, or Baylor winning the Big 12—puts Cincy in but the Irish are either #5 or #6 without a Cincinnati loss.

In other words, it isn't difficult to make a scenario where Cincinnati is in. But building a Notre Dame scenario is a lot tougher, even though they're next in line. The "roadblock" effect, along with not having a conference championship, is all the difference.

Michigan moves up to #7 with hopes to unseat Ohio State next weekend. Note that only the top seven teams increased their odds of making the Playoff while everyone else dipped; that's because it's crunch time and the results are coming in. There are not many points left for potential.

Michigan State the biggest loser, Texas A&M the big winner

Michigan State suffers the biggest fall, from #15 to #21. They remain projected at 9-3 which includes a loss next week to Penn State, so they still have opportunity on their side. But without a chance for a conference title they have no real chance at all. The Spartans were supposed to lose, but they weren't supposed to lose 56-7 and the Committee really hates blowout losses.

Texas A&M meanwhile moves up from #20 to #15, all due to the Committee's ranking of 16th from last week. Can't argue with the actual ranking when you're projecting...the actual ranking. Five spots for beating Prairie View A&M is a pretty good deal. They also gain a tiny amount of odds, up from 0.3% to 0.5% to make the Playoff, but that's basically a rounding error saying they have no hope.

Pittsburgh pulled off the only real 'upset' according to our projections, and that puts them at 10-2 instead of the 9-3 we had before. But they're just on the wrong end of the ACC title game vs. Wake Forest so they still have three losses and jump only to #16. This leaves open a shot to move up further in the final rankings of course.

Clemson didn't get the same boost. The Tigers already have three losses and they didn't make the conference title game and stay at a projected #19. They haven't made the actual Committee rankings yet so this may proved to be too high.

Utah only marginally boosted their profile as they'll have to beat Oregon again to win the Pac-12 and beating a team twice—even one you beat 38-7—is tough. This one won't be a home game either. Mostly the Utes will be playing "what if" as in, what if we hadn't lost in overtime to San Diego State, and hadn't let Oregon State come back on us...then the Pac-12 championship would likely be for a Ute Playoff berth.

Three non-Committee teams left

Now that once-promising Arizona State has exited the stage for good, and there might not be any new teams in the Committee's list this week, there are only three teams on our list that aren't on theirs (and vice versa). We covered Clemson; a 9-3 Clemson will probably make a token appearance in the final or penultimate rankings. Penn State will make it in if they beat Michigan State, and won't if they don't. That leaves Louisiana-Lafayette, 10-1 now after an impressive 48-14 road win at Liberty. There's no room this week but if the Ragin' Cajuns go 12-1 they'll be in the final poll.

2021 Final Playoff Standings projection post-week 11: Oklahoma OUT, Oklahoma State IN

One of Malcolm Gladwell's famous books is The Tipping Point, referring to the point at which a very subtle shift triggers a major change. Well, our College Football Committee final standings projections had one of those after this weekend.

Oklahoma's loss, which we figured would drop the Sooners from #2 to #4, instead pushed them from 13-0 to a projected 10-2 and all the way down to #13. The reason is that the game at Oklahoma State became a loss, and with that the Big 12 Championship Game no longer includes Oklahoma. Instead it's Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, with the Cowboys the projected winner. They finish 12-1 and #4 in our projection, up from #9 last week.

Oklahoma State has been playing lights out since their 24-21 loss at Iowa State. They beat Kansas 55-3—the same Kansas team that almost upset the Sooners and did upset Texas on Saturday. They handled West Virginia 24-3 on the road, then blasted TCU 63-17 the week after the Horned Frogs had upset Baylor.

Their improvement is as much responsible for the switch as Oklahoma's noted struggles, but without the Baylor upset Oklahoma would still make the Big 12 title game and possibly still win on a neutral field. That was Oklahoma's best 12-1 scenario. Now they have to beat Oklahoma State twice, and beating the same team twice in a row just doesn't have the same impact on the Committee (who already ranked them pretty low at #8). It also devalues your main conquest. So Oklahoma's chances going forward are definitely compromised. They'd be better off winning a rematch with Baylor, but that would require Oklahoma State to lose next week to Texas Tech.

Georgia and Ohio State moved up to #2 and #3 after beating Tennessee and Purdue, two solid wins. Alabama beat the 51-point spread against woeful New Mexico State and remained #1. Cincinnati remained outside looking in at #5, with Notre Dame and Oregon following at #6 and #7.

SportsRatings Projected Final College Football Committee rankings, post-week 11
(11/14/2021, with last week's CFP ranking and weekend results):

LW  Rnk Team           CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds   %Chg  ±Chg   Results:
 1   1. Alabama         2   9-1   12-1   72.8   +1.5   ---   W NM State 59-3
 3   2. Georgia         1  10-0   12-1   70.7   +5.1   up 1  W @Tenn 41-17
 4   3. Ohio State      4   9-1   12-1   66.5   +6.9   up 1  W (19)Purdue 59-31
 9   4. Oklahoma St    10   9-1   12-1   60.2  +50.3   up 5  W TCU 63-17
 5   5. Cincinnati      5  10-0   13-0   35.4   +0.5   ---   W @USF 45-28
 6   6. Notre Dame      9   9-1   11-1   29.1   +0.2   ---   W @Virginia 28-3
 7   7. Oregon          3   9-1   11-2   12.5   -0.1   ---   W Wash St 38-24
11   8. Wake Forest    12   9-1   11-2   10.4   +2.2   up 3  W (16)NC State 45-42
16   9. Michigan        6   9-1   10-2    9.2   +8.2   up 7  W @#13 Penn St 21-17
17  10. Baylor         13   8-2   10-3    8.1   +7.1   up 7  W #2 Oklahoma 27-14
 8  11. Mississippi    15   8-2   10-2    7.0   -3.7   dn 3  W #21 Texas A&M 29-19
10  12. BYU            14   8-2   10-2    5.8   -3.2   dn 2    idle
 2  13. Oklahoma        8   9-1   10-2    4.7  -64.8   dn 11 L @#17 Baylor 27-14
12  14. Iowa           20   8-2   10-2    3.6   -3.7   dn 2  W Minnesota 27-22
14  15. Michigan St     7   9-1    9-3    0.9   -1.4   up 1  W Maryland 40-21
18  16. UTSA           23  10-0   13-0    0.8    0.0   up 2  W So. Miss 27-17
19  17. Wisconsin      18   7-3    9-4    0.7    0.0   up 2  W Nwestern 35-7
20  18. Pittsburgh     21   8-2    9-3    0.6   +0.1   up 2  W UNC 30-23 OT
15  19. Clemson        --   7-3    9-3    0.4   -1.1   dn 4  W UConn 44-7
21  20. Texas A&M      11   7-3    9-3    0.3   -0.1   up 1  L @#8 Ole Miss 29-19
22  21. Utah           24   7-3    9-4    0.2   -0.2   up 1  W @Arizona 38-29
23  22. Arizona St     --   7-3    9-3    0.1   -0.2   up 1  W @Washington 35-30  
24  23. Louisiana-Laf. --   9-1   12-1   <0.1   -0.2   up 1  W @Troy 35-21
25  24. Houston        --   9-1   11-2   <0.1    0.0   up 1  W @Temple 37-8
13  25. Penn State     --   6-4    8-4    0.0   -3.2   dn 12 L #16 Michigan 21-17

Dropped out: none

Michigan's win over Penn State was an "upset" by our projections so it helped the Wolverines as much as Baylor's win did them; both jumped 7 spots and are projected 10-2, neither making their conference title games. The Nittany Lions suffered their 4th loss but held on to our #25 spot since they're still pegged to beat Michigan State in 2 weeks.

Wake Forest beat NC State and jumped from #11 to #8, and this change is even weirder than a "tipping point"—it's a bug fix. Our projection had been wallowing under the mistaken impression that, since North Carolina is in the ACC, Wake Forest's loss to the Tar Heels—which had been projected all season—would count as a conference loss. But it turns out it's a non-conference game. Which means Wake Forest is the Atlantic winner (and should have been for several weeks). This gives them a conference title, beating Virginia and finishing 11-2. Mississippi falls to #11 despite beating Texas A&M because of Wake's technicality and being passed by the 2 other 10-2 teams from behind. BYU and Iowa are also pushed down 2 spots from the surging duo, while Michigan State falls just one spot to #15.

And since Clemson no longer gets to the ACC title game they become a typical 9-3 team and slip accordingly, allowing UTSA, Wisconsin, and Pittsburgh, all of whom won a game one way or another, to rise a bit but without increasing their tiny odds of making the Playoff.

The rest of the list moves up a spot due to Penn State's slide from #13 to #25. This includes Texas A&M (who lost to Mississippi), Utah (who escaped Arizona's upset bid), Arizona State (who beat Washington and made them fire their coach), Louisiana-Lafayette who beat Troy, and Houston who handled Temple easily.

No teams fell out of the projection this week, the first time that's happened. Penn State is still projected to be 8-4, and with Auburn losing and now projected to be 7-5, Penn State held on at #25. Teams that are in our Projection but not the Committee's top 25 went 4-1 this week after going 6-0 last week for a cumulative 10-1.

On the other hand, teams only in the Committee's top 25 and not in our Final Projection went 2-3 after a 2-4 outing last week, for a 4-7 record. This weekend (16) NC State, (17) Auburn, and (19) Purdue all lost, while (22) San Diego State won and (25) Arkansas edged LSU in overtime.

That makes room for 2 or 3 new teams in the upcoming Committee top 25. It doesn't look like any of the five in our projection are ripe for entry necessarily. Certainly Penn State won't make their debut this week, and there's no compelling reason for a 3-loss Clemson or ASU yet. 9-1 Louisiana? Maybe. 9-1 Houston is probably the most likely of the five to show up on Tuesday.

As for the opposite: Considering they keep losing, there's not much reason for the Committee's teams to show up in our projection. Of the only two that won this week, San Diego State is projected 10-2 so they're on the brink but probably need to beat Boise State in 2 weeks to make the Mountain West title game. Arkansas is actually #26 at a projected 8-4, so they might make it next week even if they lose to Alabama. And if they beat Alabama, they'll jump in for sure.

College Football Playoff: No, Cincinnati didn't get screwed—yet

It looks like there's already a lot of whining about Cincinnati placing #6—#6 in the nation!—in the first College Football Playoff Committee rankings.

As if people expected them to put Cincinnati in the top four, thereby prematurely agreeing that a 13-0 Bearcat team had to be in the Playoff?

Cincinnati is where they had to be—close enough so that the Committee could decide to put them in, and outside far enough so that they don't have to push them out of the top four if teams with much better résumés come along.

Look at Oklahoma and Wake Forest, both undefeated. If the Committee were so disgustingly biased to Power Five conferences (they are biased, but mostly because the Power Five conferences have the best teams) then Oklahoma and Wake Forest both would have been above Cincinnati. Both have stronger schedules than the Bearcats. Cincinnati can't live on its win over Notre Dame alone—unless Notre Dame could show it was a definite Top Four team.

But the Committee did take the Notre Dame win into account—by putting Cincinnati, woeful schedule and all, at #6, higher than #8 Oklahoma and #9 Wake Forest.

If Georgia, Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest all win out, Cincinnati should definitely not make the Playoff. Even Wake's ACC schedule is tougher than what Cincy has faced. 

Not only that, but having a 1-loss Power Five team ahead of the Bearcats wouldn't necessarily be unfair.

Here are two scenarios that are definitely unfair:

• Notre Dame gets in at 11-1 ahead of Cincinnati. Hopefully this one is obvious.
• A 2-loss team gets in ahead of a 13-0 Cincinnati.

That last scenario could happen with Alabama losing a close game to Georgia. I hope the Committee would look at college football history, where no 2-loss team has won a championship (except 2007 LSU who had 2 triple-overtime losses), and say, ok Alabama you had your chance, sorry. But since they started Alabama at #2, a 2-loss Bama in the Playoff is a real threat.

It would help matters if Cincinnati really looked like a top four team. They're close—definitely top ten level—but no cigar. They don't rank in the top four in any power rating. They're right on the cusp, though, so they could help their cause by really dominating against their weak schedule. Then it would make people want them to get in for reasons other than their being the first non-Power Five team to make the Playoff.

And that's the bottom line. People want to see Cincinnati get in not because they obviously deserve it, but because they're a Cinderella of sorts. I'd want Cincy in if they looked like a top four team, or had a top-four résumé, either one. And stop bringing up "almost beating Georgia" last year—previous years aren't supposed to be factored in at all. But it's the only reason Cincy is even close to sniffing the top four.

So which teams were ahead of Cincinnati that shouldn't have been? And will it matter by the end of the season that they were ranked ahead?

1. Georgia - I hope no one seriously argues Cincinnati should have been ahead of the Bulldogs
2. Alabama - You can make a case here since the Tide have a loss, and Cincy has a better win. But it won't matter in the end if Alabama beats Georgia. It WILL matter if Alabama loses to Georgia by a point, finishes 11-2, and stays in the top four.
3. Michigan State - If the Spartans go 13-0 in the Big Ten there's no possible argument for having Cincinnati ahead of them. If they lose a game but win the Big Ten at 12-1, their schedule will be miles ahead of the Bearcats and still could be validly ahead of them.
4. Oregon - Another possible quibble, since the Ducks lost to Stanford. The lame excuse that their OC was unavailable for the game is a joke; they had the game won and blew it, anyone with a functioning brain should have carried them home to that win. But regardless, a 1-loss Oregon being ahead of Ohio State is correct; the quibble here should be with putting Ohio State so high. Does Notre Dame (and therefore Cincy) deserve to be higher than Ohio State?
5. Ohio State - They lost at home to Oregon—and obliterated almost everyone else lately. The Buckeyes have been winning the way Cincinnati needs to win against a so-so schedule. That's what style points are: margin of victory. If you're in the Group of Five you can prove your worth by destroying your opponents. Cincy was doing that until the few weeks, they just need to pick it up again.

Maybe they have a valid argument. But maybe so do Michigan, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest—even Oklahoma State and Baylor, too. Any one of those teams could be reasonably ranked higher than Cincinnati.

Of the five teams ranked ahead of Cincinnati, only Georgia has an unquestionably better résumé at this point. I think Michigan State's is better now, too—their SOS is much better, and the Michigan win is at least the equal of the Notre Dame win.

But in terms of which team is better? I think it's clear Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State have played better football, and Michigan State probably has too. Cincinnati has played better than Oregon without question—but you have to put Oregon ahead of Ohio State if you value head-to-head results.

The bottom line is that the Committee put Cincinnati exactly where they should be, giving the Committee the flexibility to move the Bearcats where they deserve to be at the end of the season, be that in the top four or outside of it. This week's ranking isn't wrong in any way. 

But the Committee's final ranking might be. If a 2-loss Alabama or, even worse, a 2-loss Auburn (who would beat Alabama AND Georgia along the way) block a 13-0 Cincinnati from getting in the top four, that would really suck. (Just wait until the 12-team Playoff full of shitty 3-loss teams. Gross.)

My guess is that Cincinnati will sadly end up #5, just outside looking in, and everyone will complain, but it will be where they deserve to be. I'll only be disappointed at that eventuality if a 2-loss team keeps them out, or if they raise their level of play to true top four in the country and still are denied. Right now they're not there—they are literally "close but no cigar" in every aspect, and the Committee's ranking reflects that.

Or, the other thing that tends to happen when teams complain about being underranked? They lose, making their point moot. So far I haven't heard the team complaining—Coach Luke Fickell did in a way, taking a shot at Iowa AD Gary Barta—but if they focus on their ranking rather than winning, it will all be for naught. That's happened so often it's almost a cliché, so Cincinnati better worry about taking care of business rather than worrying about the Committee's business.

Picking Apart the Allstate Playoff Predictor

The Allstate Playoff Predictor at ESPN is pretty cool. You can set the results of future games and get immediate feedback as to the team's odds of making the Playoff based on the FPI's projection (we'll just call it Allstate's projection from here on, as if they had anything to do with it other than stamp their name on it as a sponsor). We're looking at the version from October 26 and we'll review its conclusions, which are mostly on track but sometimes leave us scratching our heads.

By comparing two teams at a time and showing their odds if they win out, we can see what the projection is thinking. Remember, these are not odds to win out, these are Allstate's odds to make the Playoff given that the team wins out.

Georgia (13-0): >99%
Alabama (12-1): 99%

If Georgia wins out and goes 13-0, they have a >99% chance of getting to the Playoff. That's not a tough conclusion, in fact I wouldn't blame them if they just said 100%, as no 13-0 Power Five team has ever missed the Playoff and Georgia would be one of the strongest candidates yet. Alabama winning out, on the other hand, yields a 99% probability. I guess that's accurate, though I think >99% would be fine, too. SEC champ and beating Georgia ==> you're in the top four, guaranteed.

Above: The AllState Playoff Predictor had a really high opinion of the Alabama State Hornets, giving them a 50% chance to win the SEC. Just hours ago they decided the Crimson Tide were a better fit.

Georgia (12-1): 90%
Alabama (11-2): 59%

Here are the odds for each if they LOSE in the SEC title game. Georgia at 12-1 still has a 90% chance of making it, which might be a touch high. They might not have the normal 70% for a 1-loss Power Five team since they wouldn't have a conference championship (only 37.5% of 1-loss non-conference champs have made it). Alabama's 59% odds at 10-2 seem a bit high since no 2-loss team has ever made it. I'd give Georgia the 59%, Alabama closer to 39%.

Michigan (13-0): > 99%
Michigan St (13-0): 95%

Michigan at >99% makes sense if they finish 13-0, but 95% for a 13-0 Michigan State is too low considering they have exactly the same path to the title as the Wolverines. There's no 5% chance a 13-0 Michigan State ends up outside the top four; there's just no conceivable case where that happens. Both results should be >99%.

Oklahoma (13-0): 99%
Cincinnati (13-0): 88%

Now we compare two teams finishing 13-0. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12 they're in 99% of the time. I'd call it >99% but maybe there's a chance a 13-0 Oklahoma still looks bad enough to be left out for the very first time for a 13-0 Power Five team. Cincinnati's 88% is correct in being lower than Oklahoma's odds, but probably still too high. No non-Power Five team has made it yet, so I'd even suggest 50% is on the cusp of being too high.

Ohio State (12-1): 95%
Oregon (12-1): 28%

This one's a kick in the pants. If Ohio State wins out they get in 95% of the time; Oregon, who beat Ohio State, only gets in 28% of the time. Both of these numbers are too low: the Buckeyes at 12-1 with a Big Ten championship should be >99%, and Oregon would at least be the basic 70% shot a 1-loss teams has, even if the Pac-12 championship doesn't carry much weight. Add to that their win over Ohio State and 28% is a joke. They'll get a lot more consideration than that, probably 60%. I don't doubt Ohio State finishes higher at 12-1 than a 12-1 Oregon, but the difference in making the top four is not this great. Remember: 87.5% of 1-loss Power Five conference champs have made it in the past.

Iowa (12-1): 44%
Iowa St (11-2): 40%

Here's another one that's hard to explain. A 12-1 Iowa, winning out and winning the Big Ten, sits at just 44%? That's almost exactly half of the historical 87.5% rate for 1-loss Power Five conference champs. They do have a bad loss to Purdue and they wouldn't have the same tough schedule the teams in the Big Ten East did, so their odds wouldn't be >99% but would be pretty close considering they have to beat the East champ. Meanwhile Iowa State already has 2 losses; how does a Big 12 championship give them a 40% chance? When no 2-loss team has ever made it? It's not like there's a dearth of teams that could finish with 1 loss or fewer, and with Cincinnati around how does Iowa State ever get it? Also, Iowa beat Iowa State and it looks like only Iowa State is benefitting from that game. 

Oklahoma St (12-1): 30%
Baylor (12-1): 31%

Here's more insult for the Big 12: Oklahoma State and Baylor, as 12-1 Power Five conference champs, don't even match the odds that Iowa State pulls as an 11-2 team. It's not like there's a big gulf separating them. Yes, Iowa State just beat Oklahoma State. But Baylor beat Iowa State and Oklahoma State beat Baylor. The only difference in these teams is that Iowa State lost to Iowa; it seems the SOS boost from that game outweighs the additional loss. Both Oklahoma State and Baylor should at least be above the 70% chance that a 1-loss Power Five team has, and Iowa State's odds should be closer to 25%. But Allstate is right in that these teams, who have basically cloned schedules and results, would have almost the same exact odds at 12-1. It's just that Power Five conference winners with 1 loss make the Playoff at an 87.5% clip, not 30.5%.

Pittsburgh (12-1): 70%
Notre Dame (11-1): 41%
Mississippi (11-1): 39%   
Mississippi (12-1): 85%

Finally a grab-bag of three teams in different situations. Pitt for some reason has really high (70%) odds if they win out and take the ACC, much higher than comparable 1-loss teams from the Big 12, a much tougher conference. Did Pitt win a big non-conference game? No, they beat Tennessee, and lost to Western Michigan. They also beat UMass and New Hampshire so it's not their SOS giving them a boost. A 1-loss ACC team should probably be about the same as a 1-loss Big 12 team, but it looks like Pitt's high FPI is giving them an "eye test" dividend. But 70% isn't too high, as that's the rate for ALL 1-loss Power Five teams, so even if you give them zero credit for winning the ACC they're in the right ballpark.

Notre Dame has no conference title game, so if they finish with 1 loss it's all about their schedule, and this year it's turned out to be a bust. Counting them as a 1-loss Power Five team without a conference championship which carries a (small sample) 37.5% success rate, 41% seems about right. Having Cincinnati as their only loss helps, but it means Cincinnati is ahead of them for certain at 13-0.

And Mississippi probably has no conference title game to play (Alabama would have to lose again), so 11-1 is their best finish. 39% seems a bit high at first blush as they're behind Georgia for certain and probably an 11-2 Alabama too, but really they're in the same boat as Notre Dame so 39% probably isn't far off. If they make the SEC title game and win it their odds increase to 85%, which is rather low for a team that would have to beat Georgia, with Alabama as their only loss. How would you keep the SEC champs out of the Playoff under those circumstances? Maybe there's a 1% chance the Committee would find four more deserving teams, but not 15%. The only 1-loss Power Five conference champs that haven't made the Playoff were Baylor in 2014 (a confusing 11-1 with no title game win and TCU declared co-champ) and Ohio State in 2018 (suffered a 49-20 loss to Purdue).

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There you have it. From what we can tell, schedule strength is overvalued by these projections, overriding actual wins and losses. Hence Iowa State's boost from playing Iowa despite not beating them. And it looks like it's using the FPI as the "eye test" which overrates the odds of 12-1 conference champs like Pitt compared to a similar 12-1 Oklahoma State or Baylor, and gives a wholly undeserved edge to a 13-0 Michigan over a 13-0 Michigan State. At 13-0 and winning the Big Ten there are no "style points", you're just in, period.

It's too bad Wake Forest wasn't included (ESPN only includes the 15 teams with the current highest odds per FPI) because I would love to see how poorly a 13-0 Wake Forest does, given their low FPI and weak schedule. Something tells me it would be around 35%. This is roughly consistent with their FPI odds to win out (0.6%) vs. their odds of making the Playoff (0.2%). No 13-0 Power Five conference champ has missed the Playoff, so the number it returns should at the very least be over 50%.

Of course, this doesn't mean Wake Forest will show up prominently in the first Committee rankings. Their schedule and performance puts them below all the other undefeated teams, and probably several (or most) of the 1-loss teams. That will change the more they win.

2021 College Football Playoff committee final standings projection post-week 8: Ohio State moves in

Just when Cincinnati thought it was getting some traction in our projected rankings—bam! Ohio State flips to a 12-1 projection which puts them comfortably in the top four, with the Bearcats on the outside looking in. But let's start at the top.

Oklahoma is still the only Power Five team projected to finish undefeated. And how can you question that? If they haven't lost a game by now, how in the world are they going to manage to do so? The Sooners had yet another close call, beating Kansas 35-23 in a game that was much closer: Oklahoma was down 10-0 at the half and really needed a couple of crazy 4th down plays to win the game. Things only get tougher from here, as the Sooners' remaining schedule includes Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State. Yet they hit 80% odds on our chart. If they do lost one game and win the Big 12, we'll see how much "winning is winning" means when you almost lose every week.

Cincinnati also had a close call, beating Navy 27-20, and fell from #4 to #5 but that wasn't due to their performance, which will probably be forgotten if it's their only close call; instead it was #5 Ohio State's 54-7 throttling of Indiana that convinced our projection that the Buckeyes could run through their very tough remaining schedule and finish 12-1, which would basically guarantee them a spot. They even move ahead of Georgia whose SOS will be inferior when all is said and done. Georgia's odds remain above 50%, meaning there is high confidence in the top four. Alabama is still picked to win the SEC and finish #2; they pulled away from Tennessee on Saturday.

Sportsratings College Football Playoff projected final standings post-week 8 (10/24/2021)

LW   Rnk                      Rec   %Odds   %chg   Chg   Results
 1    1. Oklahoma             13-0   80.0   +1.7   ---   W @Kansas 35-23
 2    2. Alabama              12-1   65.4   -2.5   ---   W  Tennessee 52-24
 5    3. Ohio State           12-1   61.7  +38.8   up 2  W @Indiana 54-7
 3    4. Georgia              12-1   56.0   -8.2   dn 1     dnp
 4    5. Cincinnati           13-0   35.3   -8.6   dn 1  W @Navy 27-20
 9    6. Mississippi          10-2   16.6   +5.0   up 3  W  LSU 31-17
 6    7. Iowa                 10-2   12.9   -4.4   dn 1     dnp
10    8. Oklahoma St          10-2   11.3   +0.3   up 2  L @Iowa State 24-21
11    9. Notre Dame           10-2   10.6   +0.2   up 2  W  USC 31-16
14   10. Wake Forest          10-2   10.0   +1.3   up 4  W @Army 70-56
12   11. Arizona St           11-2    9.3   -0.5   up 1     dnp
16   12. Texas-San Antonio    13-0    6.3   +2.3   up 4  W @Louisiana Tech 45-16 
 7   13. Penn State            9-3    4.5   -9.3   dn 6  L @Illinois 20-18 9OT
 8   14. Clemson              10-3    3.8   -8.3   dn 6  L @Pittsburgh 27-17
--   15. Pittsburgh           10-3    3.1   +3.1   new   W @Clemson 27-17
--   16. Michigan              9-3    2.5   +2.5   new   W @Northwestern 33-7  
17   17. Iowa St               9-4    1.8   -0.4   ---   W  Oklahoma St 24-21
--   18. Wisconsin             9-4    1.5   +1.5   Ret   W @Purdue 30-13
19   19. Texas A&M             9-3    1.4    0.0   up 2  W  South Carolina 44-14
20   20. Brigham Young        10-2    1.3    0.0   ---   W @Washington St 21-19
--   21. Oregon               10-3    1.2   +1.2   Ret   W @UCLA 34-31
13   22. UCLA                  9-3    1.1   -8.1   dn 9  L  Oregon 34-31
18   23. Michigan St           9-3    1.0   -0.7   dn 5     dnp
23   24. Kentucky              9-3    0.9    0.0   dn 1     dnp
--   25. Louisiana-Lafayette  12-1    0.6   +0.6   new   W @Arkansas St 28-27

Dropped Out: #15 Coastal Carolina, #21 Utah, #22 Boston College, #24 Nevada, #25 Houston 

Other shuffling occurs because of Clemson's loss to Pitt and former #7 Penn State's 9xOvertime loss to lowly Illinois. Idle Iowa drops a spot as Penn State was their best win; passing them is Mississippi who jumps from #9 to #6. The Rebels can finish 11-1 and have a chance at making the #4 spot, but it's unlikely. Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State but that was basically assumed to be one of their 2 projected losses; they move up two spots to fill the voice, as does Notre Dame who handled an unimpressive USC squad relatively easily. Idle Arizona State was jumped by Wake Forest probably because UCLA was their top win. Meanwhile the Demon Deacons are one step closer to a 13-0 season that no one is projecting for them; we're probably the only ones that projected them to be 10-2 since the start of the season. What did you just say about broken clocks?

UTSA (the Team Also Known As Texas-San Antonio) is now up to #12 after the loss of Coastal Carolina and the fall of several 2-loss Power Five teams. This is undoubtedly their peak, as the supply of projected 2-loss teams will probably grow, and their 6.3% odds are wishful at best. It would have taken incredible chaos for Coastal Carolina to slip in the top four, and UTSA probably doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from the Committee. We'll see where they're ranked next week. It's probably 50/50 they make it into the first week's rankings.

Penn State falls to #15; they have a shot to come back with their schedule, and would be a strong 2-loss team. But that's a long shot. Clemson has 3 losses now and our projection stubbornly has them still winning the ACC with a rematch win over Pitt on a neutral field; we'll see how much longer that lasts. Pittsburgh enters at #15, finally projecting to fewer than 4 losses. And at long last, Michigan jumps into the ratings at a surprisingly high #16, still thought to finish 9-3 with their killer schedule remaining. Their final games are pretty much like those of Michigan State, who strangely falls from #18 to #23 despite being idle. Whoever wins next week between the Wolverines and Spartans becomes a major player, and will probably debut in the top four in the Committee's first rankings.

Iowa State beat Oklahoma State, but as I mentioned above that was accounted for and the Cyclones don't move from #17. Meanwhile Wisconsin comes back in the rankings, still favored to win the Big Ten West and lose to Ohio State, but with the Buckeyes in the top four that 4th loss will be discounted enough that the Badgers can finish in the top 25. They have a token 1.5% to reach the top 4 with a Big Ten championship but even if they manage that their odds are too high as 10-3 is the best they can do.

Also coming back in at #21 is Oregon, fresh off a hard-fought win over former #13 UCLA. The Ducks are one step closer to a possible 12-1 finish that would put them in limbo between "the Pac-12 is horrible" and "but they beat Ohio State!"

Louisiana-Lafayette comes in at #25. They narrowly edged Arkansas State but they're expected to win out and that would put them in the Sun Belt title game against Appalachian State, who beat Coastal Carolina. That makes for a 12-1 projection that just puts them in the rankings. They push out Coastal Carolina and even Houston, who won but now miss the cut. Other teams that lost and fall out include Utah (lost to Oregon State), Boston College (Louisville), and Nevada (Fresno State). 

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection week 7: So Cincy is in after all?

It seems like we just got done explaining why Cincinnati is still a relative long shot, that everything has to go right for them to get in, that there are so many pitfalls and everything has to fall into place perfectly.

Then, our very next projection shows a snapshot of everything falling into place for the Bearcats.

Losses by Iowa and Arizona State, coupled with a projected perfect storm in the Big Ten and no rising stars yet from the ACC, puts Cincinnati at #4 in our newest projection. Granted, they aren't at the magic 50% rate yet so there is much uncertainty, but uncertainty is a given in this game. On one hand, you have the fact that any of the three Big Ten teams below them could crowd past them, not to mention Michigan/Michigan State, a surging Wake Forest or resurgent Oregon. But on the other hand, a surging Notre Dame could still aid them, and if Alabama loses again there's another spot open for any "surging" teams listed in the previous sentence. 43.9% feels about right for Cincy, taking into account that they still have to win out, though that seems more predictable than anything else about the situation. 

Oklahoma inhabits our #1 spot still, and the Sooners had their first convincing win over an FBS opponent to boot. Alabama and Georgia rolled on toward their inevitable showdown. But #4 Iowa bit the dust in a bad way, losing to Purdue at home in an ugly game, the kind the Committee hates to see. The Hawkeyes only fall to #6 but erase over 30% of their odds. Still, they pretty much control their own destiny for the Playoff, along with #5 Ohio State (now projected to win the Big Ten) and #7 Penn State. But our projection of each of these teams suffering another loss opens the door for Cincinnati to rise to #4.

Clemson still tracks as ACC champion, a status that won't last much longer if they keep living on the edge, though their win over Syracuse was pretty much par for the course even in their Playoff years. Mississippi also rises a spot to #9 with hopes to finish 11-1 and steal a Playoff spot in a chaotic year. 

2021 College Football Committee projected final standings, post-week 7 (thru Oct. 16)

LW  Rnk Team                Rec   %Odds   %Chg   Chg   Results:
 1   1. Oklahoma            13-0   78.3   +2.6   ---   W TCU 52-31
 2   2. Alabama             12-1   67.8   +9.8   ---   W @ Mississippi St 49-9
 3   3. Georgia             12-1   64.2   +9.8   ---   W Kentucky 30-13
 6   4. Cincinnati          13-0   43.9  +18.4   up 2  W UCF 56-21
 8   5. Ohio State          11-2   22.9  +12.6   up 3    dnp
 4   6. Iowa                10-2   17.3  -31.6   dn 2  L Purdue 24-7
 7   7. Penn State          10-2   13.7   +1.9   ---     dnp
 9   8. Clemson             11-2   12.1   +2.4   up 1  W @ Syracuse 17-14 
10   9. Mississippi         10-2   11.5   +2.4   up 1  W @ Tennessee 31-26
23  10. Oklahoma St         10-2   11.0  +10.0   up 13 W @ Texas 32-24
12  11. Notre Dame          10-2   10.4   +2.2   up 1    dnp
 5  12. Arizona St          11-2    9.8  -31.6   dn 7  L @ Utah 35-21
13  13. UCLA                10-2    9.2   +1.6   ---   W @ Washington 24-17
14  14. Wake Forest         10-2    8.6   +1.5   ---     dnp
16  15. Coastal Carolina    13-0    4.6   +0.5   up 1    dnp 
17  16. Texas-San Antonio   13-0    4.0   +0.4   up 1  W Rice 45-0
20  17. Iowa St              9-4    2.3   +1.3   up 3  W @ Kansas St 33-20
--  18. Michigan St          9-3    1.7   +1.7   new   W @ Indiana 20-15
22  19. Texas A&M            9-3    1.4   +0.4   up 2  W @ Missouri 35-14
11  20. Brigham Young       10-2    1.3   -7.4   dn 9  L @ Baylor 38-24
--  21. Utah                 9-3    1.2   +1.2   new   W Arizona St 35-21
15  22. Boston College       9-3    1.0   -5.6   dn 7  L NC State 33-7
25  23. Kentucky             9-3    0.9   -0.1   up 2  L @ Georgia 30-13
--  24. Nevada              12-1    0.7   +0.7   new   @ Hawaii 34-7
--  25. Houston             11-2    0.5   +0.5   new     dnp

Dropped out: #18 Texas, #19 Indiana, #21 Wisconsin, #24 Oregon

The big winner this week was Oklahoma State, who went from an also-ran 9-3 with poor prospects to the #10 slot, up 13 places. Their win at Texas marked a bad few weeks for the Longhorns as they went from the verge of beating Oklahoma and joining the elite to falling out of the projected field entirely. Still undefeated, the Cowboys move up a lot but their odds are only 11% reflecting the fact that they might need two wins over the Sooners. Oklahoma State splitting games with Oklahoma might be a nightmare scenario for Cincinnati, or it might be just what the doctor ordered, it's hard to say.

Speaking of the Bearcats, it's looking like Notre Dame is mattering less and less to their fortunes. Partly because the Irish schedule is getting weaker by the week and an 11-1 Irish might not give Cincy much "push" after all. And it seems like people are getting used the idea of Cincinnati in the Playoff. We don't know yet if that's the case with the Committee; if they aren't drinking the Kool-Aid, then Cincy needs Notre Dame to keep winning.

Arizona State is the week's other big loser after Iowa, and they fall a lot farther as our projection doesn't seem to value a Pac-12 title win over a 9-4 Oregon very much. The Sun Devils lost to Utah, who make their first appearance at #21. ASU's previous win over UCLA stops their descent at #12; the Bruins beat Washington to hang on to their meager hope for a miracle bid or at least a top ten finish in the rankings. The Pac-12 appears to be out of luck again unless Oregon comes alive, which we don't seem to think is very likely; they fall out of the projection after barely surviving Cal at home last Friday. Another ding for the Pac-12 is that BYU lost again, this time to Baylor of the Big 12; the Cougars, who have wins over ASU and Utah, fall to #20 as a 10-2 BYU will be treated like a 3-loss Power Five team. 

Wake Forest is another sleeper team, and the ACC is the real sleeper conference as far as the Playoff is concerned. Unlike the Pac-12 they have several theoretically viable teams, though only the Demon Deacons show up here. Boston College joins Clemson at 2 losses (projected to have 3) and falls to #22. But the team that beat them 33-7, North Carolina State, is 5-1 as is Pittsburgh. Both can break into the rankings if they win next week, and both would have a real shot at the Playoff if they go 12-1. Wake Forest at 13-0 would be a Playoff shoo-in I think, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. If we're projecting a lot of chaos for the Big Ten, it certainly could crimp the ACC as well. It just hasn't happened yet, while the Pac-12's demise is almost complete for this year.

The projected undefeated Group of Five duo Coastal Carolina and UTSA sit at #15 and #16, up a spot each. They cling together here but how will the Committee see them? The Chanticleers are viewed with much more prestige after last year's success, and the eye-test (and power ratings) show them to be the better team, so there will probably be some separation between the two. If so, look for UTSA to be lower than we project, rather than Coastal being higher, as both have weak schedules; Coastal beat Kansas and UTSA topped Arizona for their only Power Five wins.

#17 Iowa State bides its time hoping to upset Oklahoma twice for...some consolation prize, I guess, though it's not impossible for a 2-loss team to finish in the top 4—a 2-loss team has finished #5 three times out of the 7 Playoff years. Texas A&M is in the same boat, with 2 losses but plugging away. But new entry Michigan State has potential. At last "over the hump" after surviving at Indiana (who finally drops out), the Spartans next face Michigan, who still isn't respected here but will be if they beat the their in-state rivals. The Big Ten picture could change radically over the next few weeks for us. Note that after Iowa's loss Wisconsin is even back in our Big Ten title game, but all that does is give them another loss and drop them off the chart despite beating Army over the weekend. So many good teams, and we have them all feasting on each other.

Kentucky became our first #25 team to survive to the next weekend, and in spite of a pretty big loss. They're in the same boat as Mississippi, hoping to finish 11-1 which probably won't put them in the SEC title game, but could possibly put them in the Playoff if their SOS is compared to a team like, say, Cincinnati. The 30-13 loss doesn't look great, but it's not disqualifying.

Finally, Nevada re-enters at #24 (they were #25 a few weeks ago), followed by Houston's debut at #25. A projected 2-loss Group of Five team normally wouldn't make it near our radar, but Houston's 2nd loss is projected to be in the C-USA title game to Cincinnati, and now that the Bearcats are "in" the Playoff, the loss is discounted for the Cougars. Unlike SMU, Houston doesn't play Cincy during the regular season.

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection week 6: Alabama stays in; BYU falls

The loss by #1 Alabama rocked the college football world but didn't drop the Tide out of our top four. It did put them in a neck-and-neck duel with rival Georgia for the 2nd spot. Meanwhile BYU's fortunes took the biggest hit while Cincinnati's hopes improved but by no means became a lock.

Oklahoma moved up to #1 after surviving a huge test from #18 Texas. The Sooners might not be the best team in anyone's opinion but they're the only Power Five school we project to go 13-0 at this point. Behind them Alabama is still projected to beat Georgia in the SEC championship game—or at the least, their odds in that game are good enough to edge the Bulldogs for our #2 spot. They do take a big hit in certainty %, falling from 73.6% to 58.0%, reflecting the fact that a 2nd loss would really sink them. Georgia is in a great spot at 6-0, looking to get in the Playoff whether they win or lose the SEC title game. Meanwhile Iowa beat Penn State and drops a spot—though their odds go up, too, approaching the 50% mark.

BYU falls; Cincinnati proxy Notre Dame survives

The really big news came when previous #5 BYU was upset by Boise State. We warned about this; just because BYU won last year 51-17 on the road doesn't guarantee a big home win—in fact, it almost invites a close, hard-fought game in the rematch, and BYU gave the game away with no one to blame but themselves. The Cougars play a majority Power Five schedule but with 1 loss we think they will be treated roughly like a 2-loss Power Five team (yes the Committee has biases).

It's too bad because their favorite team, Arizona State, did their job by beating Stanford on Friday, putting the Sun Devils at #5. Despite BYU's win over ASU, winning a Power Five conference will still carry more weight than head-to-head with the Committee. Cincinnati also took care of business on Friday, then watched as their best friend Notre Dame barely edged Virginia Tech, keeping Cincy's hopes alive. If Notre Dame can win out and go to 11-1, Cincinnati's odds will be greatly boosted, but right now it's looking likely that the Irish will have another loss somewhere down the line. Still, Cincy's odds improved due to Saturday's madness.

Penn State didn't suffer at all from their loss to Iowa, moving up a spot to #7. It's exactly that kind of loss—very close, on the road, to a top team, key player knocked out of the game—that the Committee will gladly forgive if it's your only one. The Lions essentially control their destiny still, as Iowa's #4 spot is a "Big Ten" parking space, be it for Iowa, Penn State, #8 Ohio State, or the still-undefeated Michigan or Michigan State. That's a problem for ASU and Cincinnati: it will take a lot of chaos for the Big Ten to be eliminated from the discussion. That leaves another 'Bama loss to root for, and how often has that worked in the past?

2021 College Football Committee projected final standings, post-week 6 (Oct. 10)

LW   Rnk  Team                 Rec   %Odds   %chg   Chg   Results
 2    1   Oklahoma             13-0   75.7   +3.5   up 1  W Texas 55-48
 1    2   Alabama              12-1   58.0  -15.6   dn 1  L @Texas A&M 41-38
 4    3   Georgia              12-1   54.5  +12.2   up 1  W @Auburn 34-10
 3    4   Iowa                 12-1   48.9   +1.2   dn 1  W Penn State 23-20
 6    5   Arizona St           12-1   41.4  +12.1   up 1  W Stanford 28-10
 7    6   Cincinnati           13-0   25.6   +7.1   up 1  W Temple 52-3
 8    7   Penn State           10-2   11.8   +2.0   up 1  L @Iowa 23-20
11    8   Ohio State           10-3   10.2   +2.0   up 3  W Maryland 66-17
10    9   Clemson              11-2    9.7   +0.9   up 1    idle
 9   10   Mississippi          10-2    9.2   -0.1   dn 1  W Arkansas 52-51
 5   11   Brigham Young        11-1    8.7  -26.1   dn 6  L Boise State 26-17
12   12   Notre Dame           10-2    8.1   +0.3   ---   W @Virginia Tech 32-29
13   13   UCLA                 10-2    7.6   +0.3   ---   W @Arizona 34-16
14   14   Wake Forest          10-2    7.1   +0.2   ---   W @Syracuse 40-37 OT
15   15   Boston College       10-2    6.6   +0.2   ---     idle
16   16   Coastal Carolina     13-0    4.1   -0.1   ---   W @Arkansas St 52-20
17   17   Texas-San Antonio    13-0    3.5   -0.1   ---   W @Western Ky 52-46
18   18   Texas                 9-3    2.0   -0.3   ---   L Oklahoma 55-48
19   19   Indiana               9-3    1.5   -0.3   ---     idle
21   20   Iowa St               9-4    1.0   +0.1   up 1    idle
20   21   Wisconsin             9-3    1.0   -0.4   dn 1  W Illinois 24-0
--   22   Texas A&M             9-3    1.0   +1.0   new   W Alabama 41-38
23   23   Oklahoma St           9-3    1.0   +0.1   ---     idle
24   24   Oregon                9-4    1.0   +0.1   ---     idle
--   25   Kentucky              9-3    1.0   +1.0   new   W LSU 42-21

Dropped out: #22 North Carolina, #25 Nevada

The Buckeyes jump from #11 to #8 after clobbering Maryland, and Clemson moves up a spot while idle. Mississippi drops a notch either due a near-loss or the fact that the team that beat them lost, too. But there is little change in percentages here, as everyone from #12 Notre Dame to #19 Indiana holds steady. That includes #14 Wake Forest, who survived overtime to remain the ACC's only undefeated team (add them to the list of Cincy's possible, though unlikely, spoilers); #17 UTSA who "upset" Western Kentucky to remain unbeaten; and #18 Texas who looked like they were on their way back to Playoff contention for most of the afternoon. The Longhorns' odds only dropped 0.3% with the loss, but they were low to start with.

Unsurprisingly, Texas A&M makes their way back into the projection at #22, but with 2 losses under their belt their big win doesn't translate to very much upside. Kentucky at 6-0 does control their own destiny, but their schedule is pretty tough going forward, starting with Georgia next week. 

Where are Michigan and Michigan State?

Good question! Both are 6-0 and looking great, especially the Wolverines. But both have Ohio State and Penn State yet on their schedule, and have to play each other, too. Our projection is basically saying "prove it" with those two teams, neither of whom ranked high in our pre-season rankings. One or the other will likely make an entrance soon and make big leaps with every successive win they achieve, but for now the Big Ten is forecast as belonging to Iowa, Penn State, or Ohio State.

Position #25 curse continues

Last week's #25 Nevada fell off just like all five preceding #25's have. The difference is that Nevada didn't lose last week—they handled New Mexico 55-28—but Kentucky's surge pushed them out. The #25 ranking is bad news for Kentucky, who already has their hands full playing Georgia. The Wildcats are expected to lose that game, so technically they should stay where they are. We're guessing they slip to #26 anyway.

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection week 5: New contenders Cincinnati, Penn State

The Cincinnati Bearcats, in three short weeks, have gone from non-entity to major contender for the College Football Playoff. This week Penn State also made a big move while three more teams joined the rankings as long-shots.

Beatdown Weekend

For most of the top teams, it was Beatdown Weekend. #3 Iowa kicked things off with a 51-14 drubbing of previously undefeated Maryland on the road. #4 Georgia didn't even let Arkansas on the board, winning 37-0, part of a 99-0 advantage the Bulldogs have over their last two games. Top-ranked Alabama had a 42-7 lead in the 4th quarter over Mississippi. #2 Oklahoma was the only close call, holding on for a 37-31 win over Kansas State.

But former #5 Notre Dame was beaten at home by Cincinnati 24-13, knocking the Irish down among the projected 2-loss scrubs at #12 while Cincy flew up to #7 from #16. Moving up to fill the gap left by the Irish were BYU and Arizona State, who beat UCLA 42-23 in Los Angeles.

BYU vs. Cincinnati: What will the committee look at?

Everyone's talking about Cincinnati now, but BYU is another non-Power Five team that could end up undefeated. What will the committee think of each of these teams, and why do we have BYU the higher of the two?

First and foremost is schedule. BYU's is actually a lot tougher overall, featuring seven Power Five schools to Cincinnati's two. This is why we count BYU as (almost) a Power Five squad in projecting where a 12-0 season would take them. Cincinnati is technically a Group of Five team but we treat them as somewhere in-between a Group of Five and Power Five school. The Committee (yes, they have biases) will consider the Bearcats a "legit" team but not quite fully legit due to their schedule.

Second: Conference championship. Cincinnati will have one, BYU will not. But Cincinnati's American title doesn't carry the cachet of a Power Five conference championship. BYU is in much the same position as Notre Dame: Power Five schedule but not championship game. But while an undefeated Notre Dame is basically a lock for the Playoff, a 12-0 BYU will be treated much like a 1-loss Power Five team.

What it really comes down to for an undefeated non-Power Five team is: who is the best team you beat? BYU has a win over Arizona State, and that props them up in our projection currently. Cincinnati just beat Notre Dame but that knocked the Irish to a mid-level contender. If Notre Dame ends up 11-1 that will be Cincinnati's strongest argument, since at 11-1 the Irish ranked ahead of BYU and that would "push" Cincy above them, too.

SportsRatings Projected Final College Football Playoff standings: post-week 5 (games thru 10/02)

LW   Rnk  Team              Rec   %Odds   %Chg   Chg    Results
 1    1.  Alabama           13-0   73.6   +0.7   ---    W Ole Miss 42-21
 2    2.  Oklahoma          13-0   72.1   +0.7   ---    W @Kansas St 37-31
 3    3.  Iowa              12-1   47.7   +1.6   ---    W Maryland 51-14
 4    4.  Georgia           12-1   42.3   +1.6   ---    W Arkansas 37-0
 6    5.  Brigham Young     12-0   34.8   +7.0   up 1   W @Utah St 34-20
 7    6.  Arizona St        12-1   29.3   +4.9   up 1   W @UCLA 42-23
16    7.  Cincinnati        13-0   18.5  +14.2   up 9   W @Notre Dame 24-13
18    8.  Penn State        10-2    9.7   +7.1   up 10  W Indiana 24-0
11    9.  Mississippi       10-2    9.2   +1.0   up 2   L @Alabama 42-21
10   10.  Clemson           11-2    8.8   +0.1   ---    W Boston College 19-13
 9   11.  Ohio State        10-3    8.3   -0.8   dn 2   W @Rutgers 52-13
 5   12.  Notre Dame        10-2    7.8  -25.4   dn 7   L Cincinnati 24-13
12   13.  UCLA              10-2    7.3   -0.4   dn 1   L Arizona St 42-23
13   14.  Wake Forest       10-2    6.9   -0.5   dn 1   W Louisville 37-34
14   15.  Boston College    10-2    6.4   -0.5   dn 1   L @Clemson 19-13
17   16.  Coastal Carolina  13-0    4.1   +0.3   up 1   W ULM 59-6
--   17.  UTSA              13-0    3.7   +3.7   new    W UNLV 24-17
--   18.  Texas              9-3    2.3   +2.3   new    W @TCU 32-27
 8   19.  Indiana            9-3    1.8   -7.7   dn 11  L @Penn State 24-0
19   20.  Wisconsin          9-3    1.4   -0.8   dn 1   L Michigan 38-17
21   21.  Iowa St            9-4    0.9   -0.4   ---    W Kansas 59-7
23   22.  North Carolina     9-3    0.9    0.0   up 1   W Duke 38-7
22   23.  Oklahoma St        9-3    0.9    0.0   dn 1   W Baylor 24-14
15   24.  Oregon             9-4    0.9   -5.6   dn 9   L @Stanford 31-24OT
--   25.  Nevada            12-1    0.4   +0.4   new    W @Boise St 41-31

Dropped out: #20 Miami, #24 Texas A&M, #25 Florida

Penn State zooms to #8 after shutting out Indiana, and hints at another problem for Cincinnati and BYU: kill off one Big Ten team and another rises to take its place. It's almost certain a Big Ten team will make the playoff, and Alabama and Georgia are looking more and more certain as locks from the SEC. And the Big 12 is very likely to have a team, too, whether Oklahoma holds on to be undefeated or not.

Mississippi moves up 2 spots after the expected loss to Alabama, probably jumping #10 Clemson due to the ACC's overall weakness, and Ohio State who fell two spots after adding a projected loss to Iowa in the Big Ten title game. #13 UCLA and #15 Boston College both drop a spot after losing, but those losses were already expected; their drop is due to being passed by Cincy and Penn State. Likewise Wake Forest falls a spot despite winning (barely, over Louisville).

New blood from Texas

Coastal Carolina slides up to #16 and is joined by another Group of Five teams, Texas-San Antonio who jumps in at #17. The Roadrunners already won both games we expected them to lose, and now they appear to be headed for home field advantage in the C-USA title game so they project to 13-0. They'll have to play better than they did against UNLV, of course.

Also coming in at #18 is Texas. Most had written off the Longhorns after the Arkansas loss, but after beating TCU they're a game ahead of our 8-4 projection and have hopes of moving up. They haven't played Oklahoma, Iowa State, or Oklahoma State yet so 9-3 seems fair; the Big 12 is a minefield of parity.

Oregon was never very high on our list but the Ohio State upset gave them some life; now the Stanford loss drops them back to where they started the season, projected at 9-4 at #24. They fare better than #20 Miami, #24 Texas A&M, and #25 Florida, all of whom departed the rankings.

Joining at #25 is Nevada, who upset Boise State to move in. The Wolfpack are now projected to win the Mountain West title game and go 12-1 a feat which gives them exactly one chance in hell of making the Playoff. But they're on the list, that's good right? Not so fast. With Florida's demise that makes five out of five weeks that our #25 team has lost and been dropped from the ranks. Nevada plays 1-5 New Mexico State this coming weekend so they should break that streak. Although they still might get booted by being overtaken from behind; Auburn and Kentucky are among the teams that could join the list with a win next week.

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection post-week 4: Notre Dame is a contender; Clemson tumbles

Just Don't Lose.

Sounds like a poor man's Nike slogan, but it should be the mantra for teams vying to make the College Football Playoff. As long as you don't lose, you're helping your chances. Because there will always be a slew of other teams that do lose, and that will help your own odds.

Many of the teams in our projection won ugly, but they won, and that's (almost) all that matters. There were a handful that won with style, but those were usually mitigated by sorry competition anyway. Case in point: #1 Alabama, who beat Southern Miss 63-14, only a few points shy of our Bayesian power rating's 51-point spread. And #4 Georgia, who has taken pole position in our early Strength Power Rating, beat Vanderbilt 62-0 and moved up to #2 in our Bayesian rankings. The Bulldogs have also taken over from Alabama at #1 in ESPN's FPI and SP+ rankings. 

But our other two projected Playoff teams didn't fare as well. #3 Iowa was losing 14-7 at the half to Colorado State, and #2 Oklahoma needed a last-second field goal to avoid overtime vs. West Virginia—at home. That's dropped the Sooners and Hawkeyes from many people's 4-team list, but we're looking at the long game and until they actually lose they're not going anywhere.

The big winner of the weekend was of course Notre Dame, who pulled away from Wisconsin in the 4th quarter to finish with a gaudy 41-13 win. This puts the Irish at 11-1 projected and right in the thick of things. Given the close calls in the top teams, the Irish could move into the 4-team field any week, but they have to beat Cincinnati first. And only going undefeated would secure them a spot, as other undefeated and 1-loss teams could pass them and keep a 1-loss Notre Dame outside looking in.

The Irish got an assist from North Carolina State who booted Clemson in double overtime. The Tigers fall from #5 to #10, disgorging over 23 percentage points that Notre Dame gobbled up. With 2 losses, the Tigers are hard-pressed to have a Playoff chance even if they win the ACC now. They're in the bad position of having to hope for chaos.

2021 SportsRatings projected Final College Playoff Committee standings post-week 4 (9/27/2021)

LW   Rnk  Team               Rec   %Odds   %Chg   Chg    Results:
 1    1.  Alabama            13-0   72.9   +2.0   ---    W Southern Miss 63-14
 2    2.  Oklahoma           13-0   71.5   +1.9   ---    W West Virginia 16-13
 3    3.  Iowa               11-1   46.1   +1.1   ---    W Colorado St 24-14
 4    4.  Georgia            12-1   40.7   +1.1   ---    W Vanderbilt 62-0
15    5.  Notre Dame         11-1   33.3  +27.0   up 10  W =Wisconsin 41-13 
 6    6.  Brigham Young      12-0   27.8   +1.0   ---    W South Florida 35-27
 7    7.  Arizona St         12-1   24.4   +1.0   ---    W Colorado 35-13
 8    8.  Indiana            11-2    9.5   +0.5   ---    W @Western KY 33-31
10    9.  Ohio State         10-2    9.1   +0.9   up 1   W Akron 59-7
 5   10.  Clemson            11-2    8.6  -23.6   dn 5   L @NC State 27-21 2OT
11   11.  Mississippi        10-2    8.2   +0.4   ---      idle
16   12.  UCLA               10-2    7.8   +2.0   up 4   W @Stanford 35-24
18   13.  Wake Forest        10-2    7.3   +2.3   up 5   W @Virginia 37-17
19   14.  Boston College     10-2    6.9   +2.3   up 5   W Missouri 41-34 OT
20   15.  Oregon             10-3    6.5   +2.2   up 5   W Arizona 41-19
21   16.  Cincinnati         12-1    4.3   +2.0   up 5     idle
22   17.  Coastal Carolina   13-0    3.9   +2.0   up 5   W UMass 53-3
23   18.  Penn State          9-3    2.6   +1.8   up 5   W Villanova 38-17
 9   19.  Wisconsin          10-3    2.2   -6.4   dn 10  L =Notre Dame 41-13
17   20.  Miami FL           10-3    1.7   -3.7   dn 3   W Central Conn 66-0
13   21.  Iowa St             9-4    1.3   -5.7   dn 8   L @Baylor 31-29
24   22.  Oklahoma St         9-3    0.9   +0.1   up 2   W Kansas St 31-20
14   23.  North Carolina      9-3    0.9   -5.7   dn 9   L @Georgia Tech 45-22
12   24.  Texas A&M           9-3    0.9   -6.5   dn 12  L =Arkansas 20-10
--   25.  Florida             9-3    0.9   +0.8   new    W Tennessee 38-14

Dropped out: #25 TCU

 

The rest of the top ten did what it had to do: they didn't lose. Again, sometimes it was ugly, like BYU beating USF by 8 to hold at #6, or Indiana holding at #8 by escaping Western Kentucky with a 2 point win. At this point, Indiana is clearly a spoiler more than anything else, but our projection stubbornly holds onto hope the Hoosiers figure it out. Arizona State dispatched Colorado and Ohio State gained a spot by drubbing Akron 59-7, but most importantly, they didn't lose.

Neither did #11 Mississippi, who didn't play. Smart. The Rebels are followed by a raft of teams that didn't lose their games and took advantage of the fact that so many others did lose.

Wake, BC Get the Job Done, Now Represent ACC

Last week we noted that Wake Forest and Boston College were underdogs in games the projection was counting on them to win. We also noted that our pre-season rankings didn't think very much of either team, just that their schedules were weak. But both performed well—by not losing.

Wake Forest was actually impressive—again—and is starting to get noticed, making the AP Top 25 for the first time this season. They crushed Virginia on the road as a 4-point underdog. Boston College did just enough to beat Missouri in overtime, but that bucked the oddsmakers too. With Clemson's downfall and Miami and North Carolina facing difficulties, these teams might be the best hope for the conference. Both move up five spots.

UCLA jumps four spots after tackling Stanford on the road. Fellow Pac-12 member Oregon finally put weakling Arizona away and jumps 5 spots as well to #15. Cincinnati didn't lose, since they didn't play, but they move up the same 5 spots as big winners Coastal Carolina and Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are followed by former Big Ten hope Wisconsin, now 1-2 and down 10 spots to #19. Iowa State faltered against 4-0 Baylor and drops to #21; North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech and fell 9 spots to #23; and finally Texas A&M got beat by 4-0 Arkansas and dropped a full dozen spots to #24. These unexpectedly undefeated teams (Baylor, Arkansas) are not yet considered to have any long-term potential by our projection; they'll have to earn it over time!

Miami proved the exception to the slogan. They didn't lose, yet they fell three spots to #20. Clemson's loss is to blame, as even a potential win over Clemson is not longer the sudden trigger up the charts that it used to be. North Carolina can still beat Notre Dame and become semi-relevant again, so they didn't fall as far as Texas A&M, who needs Arkansas to continue to play well to soften that loss's blow.

The #25 Spot Is Jinxed

Oklahoma State didn't lose, so they moved up a bit. Florida didn't lose either and find themselves back in at #25 because TCU did lose, 42-34, to SMU. It's the 4th week out of four that our #25 team has lost and fallen out of the rankings. 

Western Michigan was our first #25 team; they lost big (47-14) at Michigan and were replaced by fellow MAC hope Ball State, who was subsequently crushed 44-13 by Penn State and knocked out. 

Florida was next in week 3. They actually played well against their favored opponent, losing to Alabama by just 2 points, but other developments nudged them out. And now TCU got upset so the Gators re-enter at #25. Can they buck the trend next week? Stay tuned.

2021 Week 3 Preview: Indiana's gut-check; BYU's big opportunity

In week 2, none of our top teams faced any kind of challenge at all (Ohio State wasn't a top team), playing weak foes. The top two teams—and four of the top six—played FCS opponents!

That changes in week 3 as our current top four all play teams that are at least somewhat challenging, some even downright dangerous. And this time only one FCS opponent in the entire top 25. 

Let's start with the top two teams, Alabama and Oklahoma, who play Florida and Nebraska. Some years ago both would be considered deadly opponents and probably 50/50 games. Playing at Florida was an impossible task; Nebraska was the game on the schedule marked for Game of the Year. But these days, with Alabama's ascent to every-other-season national champ, even a foray to The Swamp isn't much to fear. And mostly due to Nebraska's decline, the Sooners probably don't have much to worry about. Both teams are around 20 point favorites by our Power Ratings, and 15 and 22 point favorites by Vegas. Still, this beats Mercer and Western Carolina, and the threat of an upset is still there in both cases.

The real Games of the Week concern our #3 and #4 teams, Arizona State and Indiana

First, Indiana. We projected the Hoosiers to lose to Iowa then win out. So far they've proven they can definitely lose to Iowa. The rest? Not so much. Their first hurdle comes when they host Cincinnati. It's a put-up or shut-up moment. Win and they show the college football world they're still alive. Lose, and at 1-2 we will have to admit we were wrong about them and they will tumble down the projection to a much more realistic spot. We still favor them to win by a couple points, but Vegas has soured on them and favors Cincinnati by a field goal. It's also a big moment for Cincinnati, as it's one of the two games they're most likely to lose (along with Notre Dame). They need to win to be considered a real Playoff contender; right now we have them losing both games and, as a result, not even finishing in the top 25 come Committee decision time. That can change Saturday.

Arizona State has underperformed too, against poor opponents. How will they do against their first real live foe in Brigham Young? Obviously they need a win to live up to our extremely lofty expectations, but the real onus is on BYU. ASU could conceivably lose to BYU, win out and win the Pac-12 by beating Oregon, and still make the Playoff. BYU almost needs to go undefeated to get any consideration. Even at a projected 11-1 they finish #10; with no conference title game they finish behind every 1-loss Power Five school. But if they go undefeated against their majority-Power Five schedule, and have a signature win against Arizona State? It might get them to the Playoff—if ASU, or Utah, or one of their other Pac-12 victims wins that conference. This is really more about BYU than ASU. We have the Sun Devils by a touchdown, and Vegas has them by a field goal.

Current projection of final College Football Playoff standings: this week's opponents, with projected losses in bold

Rnk   Team                 Rec   %Odds   This weekend:
 1.   Alabama              13-0   69.6   @ Florida 
 2.   Oklahoma             13-0   68.2   Nebraska 
 3.   Arizona St           13-0   64.9   @ BYU
 4.   Indiana              12-1   33.9   Cincinnati
 5.   Iowa                 11-1   26.5   Kent State
 6.   Georgia              12-1   21.2   South Carolina
 7.   Clemson              12-1   17.8   Georgia Tech
 8.   UCLA                 11-1   16.4   Fresno State
 9.   Wisconsin            11-2    8.3   --
10.   Brigham Young        11-1    7.9   Arizona State (L)
11.   Miami FL             11-2    7.5   Michigan State
12.   Ohio State           10-2    7.2   Tulsa
13.   Mississippi          10-2    6.8   Tulane
14.   Texas A&M            10-2    6.4   New Mexico
15.   North Carolina       10-2    6.1   Virginia
16.   Notre Dame           10-2    5.7   Purdue
17.   Iowa St              10-3    5.4   @ UNLV
18.   Wake Forest          10-2    5.0   Florida State
19.   Boston College       10-2    4.6   @ Temple
20.   Oregon               10-3    4.3   Stony Brook
21.   Coastal Carolina     13-0    2.5   @ Buffalo
22.   Penn State            9-3    1.4   Auburn
23.   Oklahoma St           9-3    1.1   @ Boise State
24.   TCU                   9-3    0.7   --
25.   Florida               9-3    0.7   Alabama (L)

Really, the rest of the Top 25 doesn't face all that much challenge. Iowa, Georgia, Clemson, and UCLA are all hefty favorites and Wisconsin is idle. That's the top ten.

Some teams that are only single-digit favorites include #11 Miami who hosts 2-0 Michigan State;  #15 North Carolina (vs. 2-0 Virginia); #16 Notre Dame who hosts 2-0 Purdue; and #18 Wake Forest who hosts 0-2 Florida State. Note that this is Vegas's pronouncement; we have all these teams as double-digit winners, but they've all lost games or shown some weakness (except Wake), and their opponents are 2-0 (except FSU...looks like Wake Forest will never be a big favorite against FSU).

That's the top 20. We need to go to the last five to see a few interesting games. The first is Coastal Carolina who travels to Buffalo. If this were last year's Buffalo team we'd call it for the Bulls most likely, and we still se a close game with the Chanticleers winning by 3. Vegas has them a much wider two-touchdown victor.

Penn State vs. Auburn is a big game for both teams. We projected Penn State at 7-5 pre-season and Auburn was counted as a win. We stand by that but it looks close, with Auburn about a touchdown underdog (Vegas agrees). The Tigers are currently projected at 8-4 and winning here would put them on our radar (and knock Penn State off for now).

Finally, Oklahoma State at Boise State is the most likely "upset" on this page. The Cowboys have looked pretty average so far. They haven't lost and it's only a 2-game sample so there's nothing to worry about yet, but also nothing to suggest that 9-3 isn't a ceiling. And that best-case is going to be tested, as our current power rating sees a very close game and probable Cowboy loss. Vegas sees that too, making Boise a 4 1/2 point favorite. Boise won't get on our list with a win—they already lost to UCF which hurt them a lot—but Oklahoma State would be booted.

2021 Week 2 Preview: Playoff ramifications in Iowa

Can Week 2 match Week 1 for big matchups? 

No, not at all. In fact it's chock-full of laughers and cupcake opponents. Still, there are a few key games to watch.

Let's take a look at our current Playoff Projection:

Rnk   Team                Rec   %Odds   This week:
 1.   Alabama             13-0   69.5   Mercer 
 2.   Oklahoma            13-0   68.1   W. Carolina
 3.   Arizona St          13-0   64.8   UNLV
 4.   Indiana             12-1   32.9   Idaho  
 5.   Georgia             12-1   25.6   UAB
 6.   Clemson             12-1   20.2   S Carolina St
 7.   Ohio State          11-1   16.9   Oregon
 8.   UCLA                11-1   15.6   --
 9.   Iowa St             11-2   15.2   Iowa 
10.   Brigham Young       11-1    7.9   Utah
11.   Wisconsin           11-2    7.5   Eastern Mich
12.   Iowa                10-2    7.2   @Iowa State (L) 
13.   Miami FL            11-2    6.9   Appalachian St
14.   Mississippi         10-2    6.5   Austin Peay
15.   Texas A&M           10-2    6.2   @Colorado (Denver)
16.   North Carolina      10-2    5.9   Georgia State
17.   Wake Forest         10-2    5.5   Norfolk State
18.   Boston College      10-2    5.2   @Massachusetts
19.   Coastal Carolina    13-0    3.4   Kansas
20.   Notre Dame           9-3    2.4   Toledo (L)
21.   Oklahoma St          9-3    2.1   Tulsa
22.   TCU                  9-3    1.7   California
23.   Florida              9-3    1.4   @South Florida
24.   Oregon               9-4    1.1   @Ohio State (L)
25.   Ball St             11-1    0.4   @Penn State

Read em and weep:

Mercer, Western Carolina, UNLV, Idaho, UAB, and South Carolina State.

Those are the opponents for our top six Playoff contenders. If any of the contenders lose this week they are in big, big trouble. To be brief, there are no big games to match Alabama vs. Miami or Clemson vs. Georgia this week.

Add in #8 UCLA being idle and the only game of interest in the top 8 is #7 Ohio State hosting #24 Oregon. And since we rank Ohio State #6 in our Bayesian power rating and Oregon has fallen to a dismal #53, we don't expect this to be that much of a game either. But if the Ducks do manage to win they'll get a big boost while the Buckeyes will slide to the middle of the pack. Oregon would still have three more expected losses on their slate, including a Pac-12 title game loss, but it would be a good start—and maybe prove to our power rating that they're a good team.

Probably the real game of the week is Iowa visiting Iowa State. We stick with the Cyclones winning this one in our CFP projection but our Bayesian power rating now has Iowa #3 and Iowa State #14, making the Hawkeyes the favorite there. But don't just look at last week's results (Iowa 34-6 over Indiana, Iowa State 16-10 over Northern Iowa) and expect a dominant Hawkeye win. Many times in the past Iowa State has struggled with (or even lost to) Northern Iowa then turned around and given Iowa a dogfight, win or lose. This is going to be a close game.

If Iowa wins it would put their projection at 11-1 and they'd join the likes of Ohio State and UCLA as 1-loss teams that don't (yet) make their conference championship game. Iowa State losing would mean the Cyclones have 3 projected losses total, and they'd have to beat Oklahoma two times to end up with just 1 loss. That's asking a lot.

#10 BYU has a very important game against Utah, their 2nd straight Pac-12 foe. It's nice to have a win over Arizona but Utah is ranked in the AP Top 25 and that would be a big plus. Or a big minus if they lose, as any loss puts them in a bad spot as an independent with no conference title game to shoot for. #13 Miami has a potentially tough rebound game hosting Appalachian State, but if they can shake off the effects of the Bama beatdown they should be fine. Any hangover from last week could really short circuit the Canes' season.

We hit another major soft patch with #11 Wisconsin facing Eastern Michigan, #14 Mississippi hosting Austin Peay, #16 North Carolina vs. Georgia State, #17 Wake Forest vs. Norfolk State, #18 Boston College vs. UMass, #20 Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa, and #23 Florida at South Florida. Even #15 Texas A&M facing Colorado and #19 Coastal Carolina vs. Kansas are mismatches despite the Power Five opponents. That's a lot of surefire wins—or at least the favored teams better hope. California should at least be a bit of a challenge for #22 TCU.

The MAC's Last Stand

That leaves two more games that matter. #20 Notre Dame takes on Toledo, the only MAC team that did well last week of the four(!) in our pre-season top 25 power rating. Since Toledo is up to #10 in our Bayesian ratings while Notre Dame fell to #29, we still expect a Toledo win. Notre Dame therefore has an opportunity to move up in our rankings with an "upset." If Toledo wins it would cause quite a stir as most people would put this game in the category above—easy win for the more prominent team. The MAC has one more chance to pull off a big surprise.

Or maybe two chances, since #25 Ball State travels to Penn State this week. Our Playoff projections count this as a win for Ball State, but our Bayesian rankings no longer agree as Ball State dropped to #23 and Penn State is up to #15 since beating Wisconsin. We might say goodbye to Ball State, and if that's the case the Nittany Lions would project to 9-3 and likely enter our forecast this coming Monday.

2021 College Football Playoff final standings projection: post-week 1: Georgia up big, but Indiana sneaks in

The first update to our College Football Playoff projections is...interesting to say the least. We have a new entry in the top four, as Clemson falls out to make room for...Indiana?

Indiana, who got beat by Iowa? Yes, Indiana. The Hoosiers were expected to lose that game, but that's the only one, and if they indeed beat Ohio State down the road and win the Big Ten, they have a very good chance of making the Playoff. Of course, we didn't expect a 34-6 drubbing which puts a lot of doubt as to whether Indiana is remotely good enough to pull that off, but one bad game doesn't change our forecast. Due to Clemson's unexpected loss the Hoosiers slide up and gain 12.4% to their previous odds.

Clemson's loss does put the Tigers in danger with their poor schedule. They fall to #6, right behind #5 Georgia who beat them. The Bulldogs have a great chance to get in (25.6%, up 16.2%), even if they lose as projected in the SEC final to Alabama. In fact, it's very close between Indiana, Georgia, and Clemson if those events occur. Indiana and Clemson would have conference titles, which Georgia would not, and the Committee is very high on conference titles. But the Bulldogs have a win over Clemson, and Indiana's 28-point Saturday loss would count heavily against them. Presumably if Georgia ran the table and lost a very tight game to Alabama they'd be in. Otherwise it would be Indiana, unless Clemson could match Alabama's drubbing of projected ACC title foe Miami.

Three of the top four remain from last week, though only #1 Alabama played like a title contender. #2 Oklahoma survived a crazy comeback scare at Tulane, and new #3 Arizona State was...adequate...in dispatching FCS Southern Utah. But no one remembers these close calls or poor opening day games by the end of the season. All three of these teams have >50% odds as all are projected to go undefeated, but Oklahoma raised some doubts and ASU is very unproven despite our lofty prediction.

College Football Playoff final standings projection: 9/7/2021 (post-week 1)

LW   Rnk  Team                Rec   chg  %Odds   %chg  Results
1    1.   Alabama             13-0  ---   69.5   +1.7  W =Miami 44-13
2    2.   Oklahoma            13-0  ---   68.1   +1.7  W @Tulane 40-35
4    3.   Arizona St          13-0  up 1  64.8   +7.0  W S Utah 41-14
5    4.   Indiana             12-1  up 1  32.9  +12.4  L @Iowa 34-6 
12   5.   Georgia             12-1  up 7  25.6  +16.2  W =Clemson 10-3
3    6.   Clemson             12-1  dn 3  20.2  -42.9  L =Georgia 10-3
7    7.   Ohio State          11-1  ---   16.9   +5.0  W @Minn 45-31 
8    8.   UCLA                11-1  ---   15.6   +5.0  W LSU 38-27 
11   9.   Iowa St             11-2  up 2  15.2   +5.6  W N Iowa 16-10 
13  10.   Brigham Young       11-1  up 3   7.9   +1.4  W =Ariz 24-16 
6   11.   Wisconsin           11-2  dn 5   7.5   -7.6  L Penn St 16-10 
14  12.   Iowa                10-2  up 2   7.2   +1.0  W Indiana 34-6 
9   13.   Miami FL            11-2  dn 4   6.9   -3.4  L =Alabama 44-13 
15  14.   Mississippi         10-2  up 1   6.5   +0.6  W L'ville 43-24
16  15.   Texas A&M           10-2  up 1   6.2   +0.6  W Kent St 41-10   
10  16.   North Carolina      10-2  dn 6   5.9   -4.1  L VA Tech 17-10
17  17.   Wake Forest         10-2  ---    5.5   +0.3  W Old Dom 41-10
18  18.   Boston College      10-2  ---    5.2   +0.2  W Colgate 51-0
19  19.   Coastal Carolina    13-0  ---    3.4    0.0  W Citadel 52-14
20  20.   Notre Dame           9-3  ---    2.4   -0.1  W @FSU 41-38 OT
21  21.   Oklahoma St          9-3  ---    2.1   -0.1  W Mizz St 23-16
22  22.   TCU                  9-3  ---    1.7   -0.1  W Duquesne 45-3
23  23.   Florida              9-3  ---    1.4   -0.2  W Fla Atl 35-14
24  24.   Oregon               9-4  ---    1.1   -0.2  W Fresno St 31-24
--  25.   Ball St             11-1  new    0.4   +0.4  W West IL 31-21

dropped out: #25 Western Michigan

Ohio State and UCLA stayed at #7 and #8 but each added 5% to their odds as Clemson disgorged 43 percentage points, from 63.1% to 20.2%. The Buckeyes actually did better than we projected, and UCLA was a bit weaker, opposite the conventional wisdom. Of course we ranked OSU only #10 pre-season and UCLA #20 when they weren't in the AP top 25 (they entered at #16 after beating LSU). 

#9 Iowa State moved up two spots, and #10 BYU three despite poor games by both teams. The Cyclones were very nearly upset by in-state FCS rival Northern Iowa while BYU was tested by lowly Arizona. But a win is a win and that's all Iowa State needs to keep their dream season alive. And BYU gets a Power Five win which is very important to them. Iowa also moves up but they deserve their move after beating Indiana soundly. But even Iowa moved up due to other losses: #6 Wisconsin falling to #11, #9 Miami falling to #13, and #10 North Carolina falling to #16.

The Badgers lost to Penn State at home, Miami to Alabama on a neutral field, and UNC to Virginia Tech on the road. Wisconsin and UNC were supposed to win so the losses hurt their odds but their situations are not unrecoverable given enough chaos. Miami was supposed to lose, but losing 44-13 hurts them with the Committee. Luckily it's the first game and they can still recover. The problem is that both North Carolina and Clemson were upset this weekend, devaluing them; UNC was supposed to be Miami's signature win of the year, and Clemson is a possible ACC title game foe. With Clemson no longer undefeated, Miami doesn't "count" as a 1-loss team anymore (conference title game losses to undefeated teams are nominally discounted), so now they're lumped in with the regular two-time losers.

Mississippi and Texas A&M both moved up one spot due to UNC's loss, while Wake Forest and Boston College held steady below the Tar Heels (Wake is expected to lose to UNC, BC to Wake). The projected 9-3 teams held steady though they all lose a tiny bit of their percentage as all projected 3-loss teams will do as the season progresses (we miscalculated Notre Dame's value previously). #24 Oregon survived a scare but it doesn't matter—a win's a win when it's all said and done. 

Western Michigan lost—and lost bad—to Michigan, dumping them out of the projected top 25 replaced by fellow MAC team Ball State. The Cardinals were yet another unimpressive first week team, barely beating FCS Western Illinois and putting their 11-1 projection in major doubt.