SportsRatings: College Football

2022 Penultimate Playoff Forecast: Clemson blew it

Obviously, Ohio State blew it. They were in with a win, and lost. But losing to an 11-0 team isn't "blowing it" the way losing to a 7-4 team by one point is. Clemson could have been in position for a Playoff spot and they blew it.

At 12-1 with a conference championship, Clemson was arguably already even with a 12-1 USC. A loss by USC would mean the Tigers were in if they beat North Carolina. If TCU loses? Tigers would be there, lording their major-conference title over the Horned Frogs. Two chances to get in.

As it is now, Georgia and Michigan are almost certainly in even if they lose their title games. LSU is not going to replace Georgia. And Alabama also lost to LSU so where's the advantage for the Tide? You could argue for Ohio State moving in instead of Georgia, but then you're saying there should be two Big Ten teams and none from the SEC?

Michigan is a near-lock because of Ohio State, too. They will be ahead of the Buckeyes even if they lose to Purdue because they beat Ohio State soundly, and on the road. Again, there pretty much has to be one Big Ten team and it's going to be Michigan.

SportsRatings projected final committee standings: post-week 13 (11/27)

LW  Rnk Team        Rec  Proj Odds% %Chg Losses (actuals in bold)
 1   1. Georgia     12-0 13-0 98.7  +6.0 
 6   2. Michigan    12-0 13-0 95.3 +65.9 
 3   3. TCU         12-0 13-0 71.4  +3.2 
 4   4. USC         11-1 12-1 52.0  +7.1 [email protected] 43-42
 2   5. Ohio State  11-1 11-1 42.4 -47.7 Mich 45-23
 7   6. Alabama     10-2 10-2 16.1  +4.8 @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot
 8   7. Tennessee   10-2 10-2 10.6  +1.9 @Georgia 27-13, @SCar 63-38
 5   8. Clemson     11-2 11-2  7.2 -28.9 @ND 35-14, SCar 31-30
10   9. Penn State  10-2 10-2  3.1  -2.4 @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31
12  10. Washington  10-2 10-2  1.0  +0.2 @UCLA 40-32, @ASU 45-38
13  11. Florida St   9-3  9-3  0.5  -0.2 Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28
 9  12. LSU          9-3  9-4  0.5  -6.6 FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, @TexAM 38-23, =Georgia
17  13. Oregon St    9-3  9-3  0.4  +0.2 USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash 24-21
11  14. Oregon       9-3  9-3  0.3  -2.1 @Georgia 49-3, Wash 37-34, @OreSt 38-34
15  15. UCLA         9-3  9-3  0.2  -0.3 @Oregon 45-30, Ariz 34-28, USC 48-45
14  16. Utah         9-3  9-4  0.1  -0.5 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Ore 20-17, =USC
20  17. Tulane      10-2 11-2  0.0   0.0 SMiss 27-24, UCF 38-31
21  18. Kansas St    9-3  9-4  0.0   0.0 Tul 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Tex 34-27, =TCU
19  19. Notre Dame   8-4  8-4  0.0  -0.1 @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC 38-27
22  20. Texas        8-4  8-4  0.0   0.0 Ala 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34, TCU 17-10
new 21. S. Carolina  8-4  8-4  0.0   0.0 Georgia 48-7, @Ark 44-30, Mizz 23-10, @Fla 38-6
new 22. NC State     8-4  8-4  0.0   0.0 BC 21-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou 25-10, @Clem 30-20
16  23. UNC          9-3  9-4  0.0  -0.4 @ND 45-32, GTech 21-17, NCst 30-27ot, =Clemson
24  24. UTSA        10-2 11-2  0.0   0.0 @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20
25  25. Troy        10-2 11-2  0.0   0.0 @Miss 28-10, @AppSt 32-28

Dropped out: #18 Mississippi (8-4), #23 Louisville (7-5)

TCU has to beat Kansas State to be a lock for the Playoff, but at 12-1 they have a decent argument. Better than Ohio State? Maybe not, but if USC loses, too, then they're up against Alabama and Tennessee, and who has Alabama beaten anyway? Tennessee beat...Alabama. Ok.

USC is really the team that absolutely needs a win because the Committee would move Ohio State into that fourth spot very quickly. And they've got no gimme at all vs. Utah. This time the game is on a neutral field and USC is a very slight favorite. If the Trojans win they would be a lock in a perfect world: Power Five conference champ with their only loss (by one point) avenged at the end of the season? Like I said, should be a lock at that point but the Committee seems to hate USC for not having a good defense. But how is Ohio State any better there after the Michigan game? Both teams have an 11-point win over Notre Dame; Ohio State has a better win (Penn State) but USC beat UCLA and would have the Utah win; and USC's sole loss is so much more forgivable. Add in the conference championship and there should not be a question that USC is in at 12-1. But without it, their odds go to basically zero.

Ohio State must hope for a loss (preferably USC) and hope the Committee isn't stupid and puts a 2-loss SEC team in ahead of them. Alabama's losses were both very tight and on the road, but again, they've beaten no one (Ole Miss is no longer a viable brag). Tennessee has only the Bama win—and a win over LSU—to offset their big loss to South Carolina. I'd put them ahead of Alabama myself, but this projection is based on what the Committee probably will do, and ends up having Alabama in front (mostly because that's where they are in the Committee's rankings).

Below this point the odds are thin. Clemson still maybe has a prayer in an alternate universe, but looks like they'll finish about #8 and there aren't as many circumstances this year that could change in a week as their usually are. Penn State and Washington are 10-2 but don't get the love the SEC 10-2 teams get, so they're not getting in.

538's College Football Predictor still shows pretty lofty odds for 3-loss LSU (24%) and Utah (16%) if they win their conference titles. Which is completely ridiculous. No 3-loss team should have more than 0%, and I say that even as our odds show six 3-loss teams with up to 0.6%. Our system tries to account for Committee randomness by giving almost any ranked team some token chance, so there you go. But really, LSU almost a 1 in 4 chance of making the Playoff at 10-3? No way.

ESPN's projections show LSU and Utah at 4% and 0% if they win out, still too high for LSU's case but at least not crazy. But they also show Ohio State with an 88% of making the Playoff, even after their loss. They show USC at 12.2%, mostly from favoring Utah to win, but they seem to think 11-1 Ohio State is ahead of 12-1 USC in the pecking order. 538 shows a much more reasonable 31% for Ohio State, which goes to 44% if USC loses.

Oh wait, we forgot to mention: on 538, 9-3 Kansas State starts at 19%, which goes up to 46% if they win. There is NO CHANCE that Kansas State makes the Playoff! What is going on at 538, do they really overvalue the Conference title that much? ESPN does the opposite, seeming to think 11-1 Ohio State vastly outranks a 12-1 Power Five champ (USC is at 43% at 12-1).

2022 post-Week 12 Playoff Projection: TCU, USC survive close calls, bound for Playoff?

Did any team this week demonstrate that they belong among the Top Four? You would think that with things getting down to the nitty-gritty, teams would be at their most focused, yet this weekend saw the following happen among our top teams from last week:

• #1 Georgia scored just 16 points on Kentucky and won by 10
• #2 Ohio State allowed 30 against Maryland, leading only 33-30 in the 4th quarter
• #3 Tennessee got rocked and shocked by the Gamecocks of South Carolina, 63-38
• #5 Michigan needed a last-second field goal to beat Illinois
• #6 TCU needed to scramble onto the field to set up the game-winning last-second field goal vs. Baylor
• #7 Utah lost to Oregon by three points
• #9 USC beat UCLA by three points in a 48-45 shootout
• #10 North Carolina lost to 5-6 Georgia Tech
• #13 Mississippi lost to Arkansas 42-27 even after scoring 21 in the 4th quarter
• #19 UCF lost to 4-7 Navy

Among all the top teams, only #4 Clemson looked like a Playoff team in beating Miami 40-10. #8 Alabama won 34-0 but that was against Austin Peay. So what happens to Clemson? They get knocked out of the Playoff in our latest projection:

LW  Rnk Team        Rec  Proj Odds% %Chg Losses (actuals in bold)
 1   1. Georgia     11-0 13-0 92.7  +3.2   
 2   2. Ohio State  11-0 13-0 90.1  +2.7   
 6   3. TCU         11-0 13-0 68.1 +36.7  
 9   4. USC         10-1 12-1 44.9 +36.9  [email protected] 43-42
 4   5. Clemson     10-1 12-1 36.1  -9.9  @Notre 35-14
 5   6. Michigan    11-0 11-1 29.4  -8.3  @OhioSt
 8   7. Alabama      9-2 10-2 11.3  +2.1  @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot
 3   8. Tennessee    9-2 10-2  8.7 -43.6  @Georgia 27-13, @SCar 63-38
11   9. LSU          9-2 10-3  7.1  +1.3  FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, =Georgia
12  10. Penn State   9-2 10-2  5.5  +0.9  @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31
21  11. Oregon       9-2  9-4  2.5  +2.1  @GA 49-3, Wash 37-34, @OreSt, =USC
16  12. Washington   9-2  9-3  0.9  -0.2  @UCLA 40-32, @ASU 45-38, @WashSt
17  13. Florida St   8-3  9-3  0.7  -0.2  Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28
 7  14. Utah         8-3  9-3  0.6 -10.7  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Ore 20-17
15  15. UCLA         8-3  9-3  0.5  -0.8  @Oregon 45-30, Ariz 34-28, USC 48-45
10  16. UNC          9-2 10-3  0.4  -6.5  @Notre 45-32, GTech 21-17, =Clemson
20  17. Oregon St    8-3  9-3  0.3  -0.1  USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash 24-21
13  18. Mississippi  8-3  9-3  0.2  -3.3  @LSU 45-20, Alab 30-24, @Ark 42-27
18  19. Notre Dame   8-3  8-4  0.1  -0.4  @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC
new 20. Tulane       9-2 11-2  0.0   0.0  SMiss 27-24, UCF 38-31
14  21. Kansas St    8-3  9-4  0.0  -1.5  Tul 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Tex 34-27, =TCU
22  22. Texas        7-4  8-4  0.0   0.0  Ala 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34, TCU 17-10
23  23. Louisville   7-4  8-4  0.0   0.0  @Syr 31-7, @FSU 35-31, @BC 34-33, @Clem 31-16
24  24. UTSA         9-2 11-2  0.0   0.0  @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20
25  25. Troy         9-2 11-2  0.0   0.0  @Miss 28-10, @AppSt 32-28

Dropped out: #19 UCF (8-3/9-4)

It really looked like Clemson's dreams were going to come true for a while. Tennessee was losing big, and TCU was in trouble as usual. And UCLA was beating USC. All of the Tigers' possible roadblocks were going to fall. But even though the Volunteers lost, TCU and USC ended up winning and now both look like they can run the table the rest of the way—very bad news for Clemson.

Georgia and Ohio State remain on top with very healthy odds to go 13-0 or still make the Playoff if they don't. TCU now looks like they can—maybe—squeak past Kansas State to go 13-0 but this is far from certain. They have to beat Iowa State too, before that. Nothing is certain with TCU which is why their odds are far from certainty level. 

Oregon's win over Utah not only propped the Ducks back to near the top ten, but it means that Oregon should get in the Pac-12 title game (even after losing to Oregon State) and play USC, a winnable game for the Trojans who are then 12-1 and in better shape than Clemson. Not just because they are already ahead of the Tigers in the Committee's rankings, but also because they play Notre Dame, the team that Clemson lost to. That really gives the Trojans the edge in a head-to-head comparison for the last spot—assuming they win. And North Carolina's loss to Georgia Tech diminishes Clemson's final résumé too.

Michigan barely beat Illinois but even had they lost they'd still be solidly in the Playoff hunt if they beat Ohio State. And that's looking more and more like a requirement. Like Clemson, Michigan's dream scenario almost occurred but only cleared Tennessee out of their path, while elevating two teams in front of the Wolverines should they lose to the Buckeyes as expected.

Speaking of Tennessee, after the blowout South Carolina loss the Committee in the end might not put them ahead of Alabama for a 3-point home win but certainly they'll be ahead of LSU assuming the Tigers finish 10-3. Even if the Tigers beat Georgia, which is a longshot itself, we still think they're a longshot to actually make the Playoff with 2 losses. 538 thinks otherwise, probably based on their current ranking of #6 in the Committee (pre-Tuesday announcement). ESPN's Playoff Predictor gave them a 45% chance last week if they win out, which seems more realistic but that will probably go up a lot when updated. We tend to think Georgia stays in; 538 vehemently disagrees (15% chance basically) while Predictor gives a 12-1 Georgia 84%. That's about where we are.

We show four Pac-12 teams from #11 to #15 and who knows what order they'll actually end up in, especially if Oregon State beats Oregon as we expect, and Washington State beats Washington. Right now the Ducks and Huskies are a bit ahead because they still have a theoretical chance of making the Playoff with 2 losses, while the others have three losses and have no actual chance (our formula still shows a fragment for several 3-loss teams nonetheless).

Tulane is our pick once again in the ever-revolving door that is the American Athletic Conference champ. We thought this had finally been settled after UCF beat both Tulane and Cincy on the field, but UCF's loss to Navy basically means that the winner of Tulane and Cincinnati will get the home field against UCF. And Tulane can win that game at home (even though they lost to home before to the Knights). In any rate, they move back in as UCF drops out, the only change in membership in our top 25.

Whether UTSA and Troy ever make their way in to the Committee's rankings, we'll have to see. It's getting rather stagnant at the bottom of the Committee's top 25, too, so I wouldn't be surprised if some new Group of Five teams enter this week. It might be Coastal Carolina, who we have pegged to lose to Troy for the Sun Belt title. Other than that, there are a lot of teams with 3 or 4 losses they could choose from, or they could keep all the American Athletic teams in despite the growing number of losses. 

2022 Week 12 Preview: The Pac-12 is where it's at this weekend

Get ready to stay up a bit late on Saturday: the Pac-12 is the focus of the important games in this week's Playoff race. While the SEC has the very top teams—four in the current Committee top ten—they're taking the week off. #1 Georgia and (our projected) #3 Tennessee are 20+ point favorites over Kentucky and South Carolina. #8 Alabama is a 50 point favorite (our estimate) hosting Austin Peay. #11 LSU is a surprisingly low 2-touchdown favorite at home vs. UAB, so maybe pay attention to that one but by and large, the SEC is not where your focus should be. 

Instead it's the late evening football that contains the contenders battling it out. #7 Utah hosts #21 Oregon with a Pac-12 title appearance probably on the line. The Committee has Oregon #12 which reflects their current 8-2 status, and if the Ducks want to avoid ending up at #21 they need a win. It would also keep them in Pac-12 title contention—and as we see it, probably propels USC in the Playoff: USC's schedule hasn't been that tough so far but getting wins over UCLA, Notre Dame, and Utah/Oregon puts them 12-1 with a Pac-12 title and a 1-point road loss to a ranked team. That's a Playoff résumé. We see the Trojans beating Oregon but losing to Utah, so they want the Ducks to win this game.

Currently USC, Oregon, and Utah have one conference loss so the loser here is behind the 8-ball if #9 USC beats #15 UCLA as expected. Of course if UCLA pulls off the upset, then it leaves four teams with 2 losses still vying for a title game appearance. #16 Washington would be in play at 8-2; the Huskies are huge favorites against Colorado. And then there's #20 Oregon State who is no longer in the conference race but makes for six Pac-12 teams in our projected Final Top 25 and the current Committee Top 25 too. Who says the conference isn't good this year?

Projected Final Standings of CFP Committee: with Committee rank, Line, and opponent

Rnk Team           Comm Rec   Proj  Line  Opponent 
 1. Georgia          1  10-0  13-0 -22.5  @Kentucky
 2. Ohio State       2  10-0  13-0 -27.5  @Maryland
 3. Tennessee        5   9-1  11-1 -21.5  @South Carolina
 4. Clemson          9   9-1  12-1 -19.0  Miami FL
 5. Michigan         3  10-0  11-1 -18.0  Illinois 
 6. TCU              4  10-0  12-1  -2.5  @Baylor 
 7. Utah            10   8-2  11-2  -2.0  @ #21 Oregon
 8. Alabama          8   8-2  10-2 -50.0  Austin Peay
 9. USC              7   9-1  11-2  -2.5  @ #15 UCLA
10. UNC             13   9-1  11-2 -21.0  Georgia Tech
11. LSU              6   8-2  10-3 -14.5  UAB
12. Penn State      11   8-2  10-2 -19.0  @Rutgers
13. Mississippi     14   8-2  10-2  -2.5  @Arkansas
14. Kansas St       15   7-3  10-3  -7.5  @WVA
15. UCLA            16   8-2   9-3  +2.5  #9 USC
16. Washington      17   8-2   9-3 -31.0  Colorado
17. Florida St      19   7-3   9-3 -24.0  ULL
18. Notre Dame      18   7-3   8-4 -21.0  Boston College
19. UCF             20   8-2  11-2 -16.5  Navy
20. Oregon St       23   7-3   9-3  -8.0  @ASU
21. Oregon          12   8-2   8-4  +2.0  #7 Utah
22. Texas           --   6-4   8-4  -9.0  @Kansas 
23. Louisville      --   6-4   8-4  -4.0  NC State(24)
24. UTSA            --   8-2  11-2 -13.0  Rice
25. Troy            --   8-2  11-2 -15.0  ULM 
    others
--  Tulane          21   8-2   9-3  -3.5  SMU
--  Oklahoma St     22   7-3   8-4  -7.5  @Oklahoma
--  NC State        24   7-3   7-5  +4.0  @ #23 Louisville
--  Cincinnati      25   8-2  10-3 -17.0  @Temple

The non-SEC portion of the top 5 doesn't look like they'll be challenged either: #2 Ohio State and #4 Clemson are major favorites against Maryland and Miami. But #6 TCU is in another tight game at Baylor. Week in and week out, the Horned Frogs are narrow favorites (if they are favorites), partially due to TCU's low-ish power rating and more because of the high average level of the Big Twelve. There's parity and it's on the strong side: the entire conference is in the top 43 in our Strength power rating and 9 of the 10 are in the top 34.

Under the radar: #10 North Carolina is a team to keep an eye on, as they keep piling up the wins and have an actual (outside) shot at the Playoff. They should have an easy time at Georgia Tech, but it also seems like one of those games that could sneak up on a team. Same with #12 Penn State at Rutgers. And #13 Mississippi has an actual tough assignment, traveling to Arkansas after their big letdown vs. Alabama.

Salvageable seasons: #17 Florida State and #18 Notre Dame are not in Playoff contention but have turned rough starts into decent seasons. Both are expected to win easily but BC has been an Irish spoiler in the past and is coming off a big upset over NC State. #19 UCF is going for the Group of Five New Year's Six throne; we think they'll get it, winning the American over Committee-ranked Tulane (21) and Cincinnati (25). The Knights host Navy and the Bearcats travel to Temple while the Green Wave have a much tougher challenge Thursday night vs. SMU.

Filling it out: This year's top 25 has been a mess at the bottom; we figure there will be about four 4-loss teams in the final top 25 compared to just two last year, and that's with UTSA and Troy eventually making it at 11-2. #22 Texas will probably make it back in by season's end, assuming they can beat a tough Kansas team on the road this weekend. #23 Louisville has a win over UCF and ought to have a win over current Committee (24) NC State as the Cardinals are favored by Vegas. There are a number of other teams that should finish 8-4 and we'll have to see which team crowds their way in.

2022 post-Week 11 Playoff Projection: Oregon hits the skids, TCU rises (yet again)

TCU has been all over the place in our projections—including both out altogether (pre-season) and at #3 and projected 13-0 (week 4)—so it should come as no surprise that the Horned Frogs in one week have gone from a projected 10-3 also-ran to a 12-1 contender. TCU has remained undefeated and thus controlled their destiny all year, but their just-in-time method of winning hasn't impressed our power ratings which keep calling for TCU losses that never materialize.

They're down to one projected loss after beating Texas, but that still keeps them from winning the Big 12 which keeps them out of the Playoff. They jump to #6, with a healthy 30.5% chance to make it but they current path is still rough. Baylor looks easier after last week's 31-3 loss to K-State, but that makes K-State look tougher for the conference title game. And Iowa State's 4-6 is deceptive. The game TCU loses might be the one no one is calling. Still, everyone agrees that if they win out, they're in...oh wait, the infamous All-State/ESPN Predictor says that a 13-0 TCU has an 12% chance of missing the Playoff. (Will somebody please fix that mess?)

But they're far better off than Oregon, upset losers to Washington in a game that tipped the Ducks last two games into the L column; we're now projected them at 8-4 but either way, a 2-loss team with one of those a 49-3 score doesn't make the Playoff. Like TCU, Oregon's been all over the place in our projection, including not being included in the pre-season because they were projected to be...8-4. Everything comes back around.

Meanwhile the rest of the top teams won and consolidated their positions. #3 Tennessee and #4 Clemson lost a touch of ground due to TCU's frightful presence, as a 13-0 TCU is a guarantee while no 1-loss team is. Michigan moved up to #5, probably their highest rank of the year, always just outside the top four, with their big chance getting closer.

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 11 (11/14)

LW  Rnk Team        Rec  Proj%Odds  %Chg Losses (actuals in bold) 
 1   1. Georgia     10-0 13-0 89.5  +6.2
 2   2. Ohio State  10-0 13-0 87.3  +5.9
 3   3. Tennessee    9-1 11-1 52.3  -2.6 @Georgia 27-13
 4   4. Clemson      9-1 12-1 46.0  -3.0 @Notre 35-14
 6   5. Michigan    10-0 11-1 37.7  +7.5 @OhioSt
14   6. TCU         10-0 12-1 30.5 +28.1 =KState
15   7. Utah         8-2 11-2 11.3  +9.7 @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32
 8   8. Alabama      8-2 10-2  9.2  -0.1 @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot
 7   9. USC          9-1 11-2  8.0  -3.1 [email protected] 43-42, =Utah
16  10. UNC          9-1 11-2  6.9  +6.0 @Notre 45-32, =Clemson
11  11. LSU          8-2 10-3  5.8  -0.9 FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, =Georgia
12  12. Penn State   8-2 10-2  4.6  -1.2 @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31
 9  13. Mississippi  8-2 10-2  3.5  -4.9 @LSU 45-20, Alab 30-24 
new 14. Kansas St    7-3 10-3  1.5  +1.5 Tul 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Tex 34-27
10  15. UCLA         8-2  9-3  1.3  -6.3 @Oregon 45-30, Ariz 34-28, USC
new 16. Washington   8-2  9-3  1.1  +1.1 @UCLA 40-32, @ASU 45-38, @WashSt
17  17. Florida St   7-3  9-3  0.9  +0.1 Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28
18  18. Notre Dame   7-3  8-4  0.5  -0.1 @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC
21  19. UCF          8-2 11-2  0.4  +0.1 Lou 20-14, @ECar 34-13
new 20. Oregon St    7-3  9-3  0.3  +0.3 USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash 24-21
 5  21. Oregon       8-2  8-4  0.3 -40.7 @GA 49-3, Wash 37-34, Utah, @OreSt
13  22. Texas        6-4  8-4  0.0  -3.2 Ala 20-19, TxT 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34, TCU 17-10
20  23. Louisville   6-4  8-4  0.0  -0.4 @Syr 31-7, @FSU 35-31, @BC 34-33, @Clem 31-16
25  24. UTSA         8-2 11-2  0.0   0.0 @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20
new 25. Troy         8-2 11-2  0.0   0.0 @Miss 28-10, @AppSt 32-28

Dropped out: #19 Illinois(8-4), #22 NC State(7-5), #23 Wake Forest(7-5), #24 Liberty(10-2)

Utah takes over as the designated Pac-12 champ, beating USC for the 2nd time this season, moving them up to #7. But the Trojans hang around at #9 because all they need is that Pac-12 title game win and they're nearly a lock at 12-1 with a 1-point road loss. They have to beat #15 UCLA first though, and the Bruins have nothing to lose now—nor much to fight for, let's be honest, after their embarrassing home loss to Arizona. A slew of Pac-12 teams occupy the top 25, including returning Washington, now projected at 9-3 but having only 2 losses meaning they have an outside, outside chance. Oregon State now edges Oregon and finishes 9-3 and at this point it's clear that any major-conference team at 9-3 or better will finish in the top 25.

Another peaking team is #10 North Carolina. Beating Wake Forest erased yet another projected loss and they're down to just one more—the ACC title game vs. Clemson. And if they win that, well, they have a shot. Not as good as Clemson, who only finishes #4 in our projection for presumably winning the ACC, but a shot nonetheless. They would need help to get past Michigan, maybe even 12-1 TCU, who knows. But the Committee says conference titles are golden, so they have a chance.

#11 LSU and another return entry, K-State, look destined to finish 10-3, and though K-State would have a conference title and LSU not, the Tigers probably still finish ahead. And they have the biggest opportunity of any 2-loss team: a chance to beat Georgia. That opportunity isn't likely to pay dividends though. Meanwhile Alabama, Penn State, and Mississippi will play out their schedules with no shot at playing in a conference title game, but a reasonable chance of finishing even higher as other teams are upset.

As has been the case for weeks, the bottom of the chart is ugly with multiple-loss teams. Some have big wins like Notre Dame—responsible for the loss of 2 of the 4 1-loss teams—while others have 3 or 4 losses all to good teams, but there's no longer anyone that can make a miracle run. North Carolina filled that role but now they've moved into the "hope" zone and everyone from #17 down is basically sunk despite the token percentages given here. The battle for Group of Five supremacy was won by UCF last week against Tulane, now they need to beat Cincinnati again, otherwise UTSA or even Troy might usurp them. But the Committee likes the American so Cincinnati would just replace UCF if they finish 11-2; right now we have UCF winning and Cincy finishing 10-3.

And quickly, the dropouts: Illinois lost their 3rd game in a row and look to be an unimpressive 8-4. Not that 8-4 precludes finishing in the top 25 this year, but the Illini don't have any good wins. NC State and Wake Forest both lost and look to be 7-5, which does keep teams out of the top 25. And Liberty fell to UMass, which isn't acceptable at all. When their only loss was Wake Forest by a point they had a good chance of slipping in amidst the 8-4 teams at 11-1, but 10-2 won't do.

Week 11 Preview: Why do we need the Committee again?

The College Football Playoff Committee is made up of experts who take their job seriously and truly investigate the quality of the teams they are charged with ranking. They don't just put the teams in any typical order like the AP Sportswriters, nor do they just move them around based on what happened last week. They reevaluate and rerank from scratch with a solid case behind each position in their top 25.

At least, that's what we've been sold for the last 8 years or so. But the truth is, they're not really any better than the AP. We knew that from the first iteration of the Playoff, when #3 TCU beat Iowa State 55-3 and fell to #6 in the final rankings because A) Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0, B) undefeated FSU couldn't fall out, and C) while we're at it, we're going to recognize Baylor's conference championship all of a sudden and put them #5. That was a whole lot of re-evaluation, but then why were the ratings so screwed up the week before?

TCU was getting the shaft again last week at #7, but suddenly they've bumped up to #4. This week it's Clemson getting the shaft, falling from #4 to #10. These are the typical week-to-week movements the AP sportswriters make, reacting to last week's games, that the Committee was supposed to be immune from. But look at the Committee's first rankings—they're almost a carbon copy of the AP top 25. And the 2nd week? They follow the AP's lead almost exactly again. If the Committee really has any independent thinking, they're not showing much of it. It matters because the "order" of losses shouldn't be as important as it is in the "week by week adjustment" model—losing late is devastating, as there's no time to "work your way back up" as other teams lose.

TCU, slated to finish 10-3 by our rankings is a dismal #14 but beating #13 Texas would be the kickstart they need in our projection, as it would erase one loss and kick Texas out of the title game, probably putting TCU at 12-1. Texas is a 7-point favorite, one reason why the Horned Frogs don't get their due here.

This weekend features (our) #2 Ohio State as a 40-point favorite, #6 Michigan at around 30 points, #7 USC at 34 points, and #3 Tennessee, #10 UCLA, and #22 NC State all at around 20 points. #1 Georgia is closer at 16 1/2. The top game expected to be competitive is #4 Clemson (Committee #10) at #20 Louisville (comm: unranked). #9 Mississippi has their big chance against #8 Alabama but they're still out of luck unless #11 LSU loses at Arkansas—though the Tigers are just a 3 point favorite.

Projected Final Standings of CFP Committee: with Committee rank, Line, and opponent

Rnk Team           Comm Rec  Proj  Line  Opponent
 1. Georgia          1  9-0  13-0 -16.5  @ Miss State      
 2. Ohio State       2  9-0  13-0 -40.0  Indiana
 3. Tennessee        5  8-1  11-1 -20.5  Missouri    
 4. Clemson         10  8-1  12-1  -7.0  #20 Louisville   
 5. Oregon           6  8-1  12-1 -13.5  (25) Washington
 6. Michigan         3  9-0  11-1 -29.5  Nebraska   
 7. USC              8  8-1  11-2 -34.0  Colorado
 8. Alabama          9  7-2  10-2 -12.0  @ #9 Mississippi
 9. Mississippi     11  8-1  10-2 +12.0  #8 Alabama   
10. UCLA            12  8-1  10-2 -19.5  Arizona
11. LSU              7  7-2  10-3  -3.0  @ Arkansas    
12. Penn State      14  7-2  10-2 -10.0  Maryland   
13. Texas           18  6-3  10-3  -7.0  #14 TCU   
14. TCU              4  9-0  10-3  +7.0  @ #13 Texas
15. Utah            13  7-2   9-3 -24.0  Stanford 
16. UNC             15  8-1  10-3  +3.5  @ #23 Wake Forest
17. Florida St      23  6-3   9-3  -6.5  @ Syracuse
18. Notre Dame      20  6-3   8-4 -16.5  @ Navy
19. Illinois        21  7-2   9-4  -6.5  Purdue   
20. Louisville      --  6-3   8-4  +7.0  @ #4 Clemson    
21. UCF             22  7-2  11-2  +2.0  @ (17) Tulane   
22. NC State        16  7-2   8-4 -19.0  Boston College    
23. Wake Forest     --  6-3   8-4  -3.5  #16 UNC
24. Liberty         --  8-1  11-1 -14.5  UConn
25. UTSA            --  7-2  11-2 -18.0  North Texas
    others:
--  Tulane          17  8-1  10-3  -2.0  #21 UCF
--  Kansas St       19  6-3   8-4  +2.5  @Baylor
--  Kentucky        24  6-3   7-5 -18.0  Vanderbilt 
--  Washington      25  7-2   8-4 +13.5  @ #5 Oregon

The only other intra-top 25 clash is #16 North Carolina at #23 Wake Forest. The Tar Heels actually have a reasonable path to the Playoff, as finishing a 1-loss ACC champ with a win over Clemson would get them at least in the top 10—but probably short of the Playoff given the possible number of 1-loss teams available. As we project, Clemson gets in at 12-1 but UNC probably would not—even if they have a closer loss to Notre Dame! Alas, the Tar Heels are a slight underdog and our 10-3 projection includes a loss here too.

Another underdog on our top 25 is #21 Central Florida at Tulane. We have UCF winning, but in previous weeks Tulane was ranked at 12-1 and can still accomplish that. The Committee has the Green Wave at #17, and if they win this one they'll be back in ours.

Two more teams in the Committee rankings are underdogs: (19) Kansas State at Baylor and (25) Washington at #5 Oregon. 

2022 post-Week 10 Playoff Projection: Tennessee moves up for losing?

Tennessee lost to Georgia and it wasn't even close, but the Volunteers move from #5 to #3 in our Playoff Committee final standings projection.

The reason? Well, it helped a lot that #3 Clemson lost. It didn't help that #7 Alabama lost to LSU, which takes the shine off Tennessee's major achievement. But now Oregon is expected to beat USC, and Oregon lost to Georgia by 46 points. That alone could get Tennessee in at 11-1. The Vols gain 15% odds, and while Clemson loses over 25% for the Notre Dame loss, they remain "in" at #4.

Think about it: If Georgia and Ohio State end up 13-0 and #1 and #2, and there are four 1-loss teams left, who gets it? By the Committee's rules on emphasis it should be 12-1 Clemson and 12-1 Oregon, both conference champs. Oregon's resume may look better than Clemson, who lost to Notre Dame...but Tennessee is arguably well ahead of Oregon just based on how they did against Georgia. And once the choice is for #4, now you can't put the Ducks #4, positioned for an opener against Georgia? After losing by 46?

Don't think the Committee will think that way? I think it will be very hard for them to include Oregon; even at 12-1 they look destined for #5 unless other teams are cleared out. And Tennessee has to be #3 or they don't get in; the Vols won't be rematched against Georgia based on their dismal performance Saturday. The odd man out? Michigan, who at 11-1 would have neither a signature win or a conference championship. They need to beat Ohio State, or lose narrowly enough to make themselves look like the best option among the losers.  

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 10 (11/06)

LW  Rnk Team           Rec  Proj %Odds  %Chg  Losses (actuals in bold) 
 1   1. Georgia        9-0  13-0  83.3  +3.0 
 2   2. Ohio State     9-0  13-0  81.4  +2.8 
 5   3. Tennessee      8-1  11-1  54.9 +15.3  @Georgia 27-13
 3   4. Clemson        8-1  12-1  49.0 -25.9  @Notre 35-14
 8   5. Oregon         8-1  12-1  41.0 +32.1  @Georgia 49-3
 6   6. Michigan       9-0  11-1  30.1 +13.4  @OhioSt
 4   7. USC            8-1  11-2  11.1 -36.2  [email protected] 43-42, =Oregon
 7   8. Alabama        7-2  10-2   9.3  -3.7  @Tenn 52-49, @LSU 32-31ot
 9   9. Mississippi    8-1  10-2   8.4  +0.2  @LSU 45-20, Alabama
10  10. UCLA           8-1  10-2   7.6  +0.1  @Oregon 45-30, USC
18  11. LSU            7-2  10-3   6.7  +6.2  FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, =Georgia
11  12. Penn State     7-2  10-2   5.9  -0.8  @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31
20  13. Texas          6-3  10-3   3.3  +2.9  Alab 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34
13  14. TCU            9-0  10-3   2.4  -1.7  @Texas, @Baylor, =Texas
15  15. Utah           7-2   9-3   1.6  -0.5  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Oregon
16  16. UNC            8-1  10-3   1.0  -0.4  @Notre 45-32, @Wake, =Clemson
new 17. Florida St     6-3   9-3   0.8  +0.8  Wake 31-21, @NCst 19-17, Clem 34-28
new 18. Notre Dame     6-3   8-4   0.6  +0.6  @OhioSt 21-10, Mar 26-21, Stan 16-14, @USC
14  19. Illinois       7-2   9-4   0.5  -2.8  @Ind 23-20, MichSt 23-15, Mich, =OhioSt
new 20. Louisville     6-3   8-4   0.4  +0.4  @Syr 31-7, @FSU 35-31, @BC 34-33, @Clem
new 21. UCF            7-2  11-2   0.3  +0.3  Lou 20-14, @ECar 34-13
new 22. NC State       7-2   8-4   0.2  +0.2  @Clem 30-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou, @UNC
22  23. Wake Forest    6-3   8-4   0.1  +0.0  Clem 51-45ot,@Lou 48-21,@NCSt 30-21,@Duke
new 24. Liberty        8-1  11-1   0.1  +0.1  @Wake 37-36
new 25. UTSA           7-2  11-2   0.0   0.0  @Houston 37-35ot, @Texas 41-20

Dropped out: #12 Kansas St (8-4), #17 Syracuse( 7-5), #19 Duke (8-4), #21 Baylor (8-4), #23 Oklahoma St (7-5), #24 Oregon St (8-4), #25 Purdue (7-5)

USC is still looking pretty good at #7, after all they didn't lose; they just looked bad enough to give Oregon the edge in the Pac-12 title game. Alabama only fell one spot to #8 because now they're probably not in the SEC title game and still end up with two losses. #9 Ole Miss has a tough path to the Playoff, while #10 UCLA's path is clearly but not too likely (beat USC and then Oregon in a rematch). LSU jumps to #11 but with 2 losses they probably end up #5 even if they beat Georgia, which is itself not likely. 

Texas is once again our Big 12 pick. Tune in next week to see if that flipped again, and if TCU's luck holds out it will. The Horned Frogs have a tough set of games coming up but they've made it through undefeated so far and still control their destiny to the Playoff. Their shaky performances don't inspire much confidence but if they beat the Longhorns they can move up fast.

The rest of the projection is a rotating door. The lower part of the projection has rarely looked so dismal, full of 8-4 teams because of huge chunks parity in the Big 12, the ACC, and the Big Ten. So we say goodbye this week to three Big 12 teams, two ACC teams, and one each from the Pac-12 and Big Ten, and welcome three from the ACC, two independents and two more from Group of Five conferences. The amount of 8-4 finishers is so huge that it opens the door for teams like UCF (now projected at 11-2, and already on the Committee's list), Liberty (set to finish 11-1), and UTSA. Notre Dame also gets back in after beating Clemson, but with 3 losses already they are window dressing at this point, as are FSU and Louisville.

2022 Initial Committee Rankings: our take

The Committee Rankings are coming out as we speak; this is our analysis of the first week's top 25.

First, our guess, based on our Combined Power rating, Success power rating, and the Committee's "groupings" selection method. Really, there are too many odd and inconsistent choices by the Committee early on; there's no method to their madness in the first week's top 25. Their Final rankings are a lot more predictable, which is a good thing.

SportsRatings guess for Committee first rankings:

  1. Georgia                     8-0
  2. Ohio State                  8-0
  3. Tennessee                   8-0
  4. Michigan                    8-0
  5. TCU                         8-0
  6. Clemson                     8-0
  7. Alabama                     7-1
  8. Oregon                      7-1
  9. Southern Cal                7-1
 10. LSU                         6-2
 11. UCLA                        7-1
 12. Utah                        6-2
 13. Mississippi                 8-1
 14. Kansas St                   6-2
 15. Tulane                      7-1
 16. Wake Forest                 6-2
 17. Syracuse                    6-2
 18. Illinois                    7-1
 19. Oklahoma St                 6-2
 20. Notre Dame                  5-3
 21. North Carolina              7-1
 22. Penn State                  6-2
 23. Maryland                    6-2
 24. Florida St                  5-3
 25. North Carolina St           6-2

I don't think Tennessee will be #1; Georgia is still the gold standard this season, and Ohio State has been impressive too. Tennessee will be at least #3, and all the undefeated teams have their positives and might finish ahead of Alabama. Though #7 is the lowest the Tide will possibly start.

After that, it's anyone's guess. Tulane might be the only non-Power Five school in the mix as the other contenders have either lost too often or have a ridiculously easy schedule. The Green Wave probably won't start as high as #15 but they'll be in the top 25.

The Committee's First Rankings:

1. Tennessee (8-0)- well, they went with the Vols after all. I figured Georgia's 49-3 win over Oregon was really the better win, but Tennessee does have the better SOS. 
2. Ohio State (8-0) - Here, the Committee went for pure Strength, as Ohio State doesn't have many good wins or a great SOS. But again, their SOS is better than Georgia's
3. Georgia (8-0) - Finally the Bulldogs. To me, Georgia is a combo of Ohio State's strength with a huge win to match Tennessee, but the Committee seemed to look at overall SOS when making the top four
4. Clemson (8-0) - Not a big surprise here really, the Tigers could have been anywhere from #1 to #7. They have more wins over 2-loss teams than anyone else, but those games were not dominant. Let's not pretend that the Clemson name isn't worth something either; if TCU and Clemson swapped results, they would still be where they are now.
5. Michigan (8-0) - About where we expected: behind Ohio State, but ahead of any 1-loss team
6. Alabama (7-1) - We should have known the Tide wouldn't be behind TCU. But overall this is a good placement, rather than the #3 or #4 some people were predicting.
7. TCU (8-0) - Any undefeated team that falls behind a 1-loss team has the right to complain, and TCU certainly does here. Alabama's best wins are over 3-loss teams, while TCU has two wins over 6-2 teams. Alabama's SOS is a bit better but it's pretty close. The Committee just doesn't like to look like they "sort by losses" I think. And like Clemson, the Alabama name sways them, enough to put Tennessee #1 for a 3-point home win over the Tide.
8. Oregon (7-1) - Finally we got a position correct! Oregon should be happy with this placement given their 49-3 loss to Georgia. Are there really just 5 spots between these teams, and 5 spots between Tennessee and Alabama, a 3-point game?
9. USC (7-1) - We're on a roll! Two spots in a row picked. This makes sense as the Trojans don't have many big wins and their loss to Utah was by 1 point
10. LSU (6-2) - Three in a row! I guess our quick-and-dirty method works well in the middle but not at the top. LSU was bound to be the top 2-loss team, with one loss to undefeated Tennessee and a 1-point loss to FSU. Add the Ole Miss win and the Tigers are top ten, but with little real shot at the Playoff. They win the SEC if they win out, but even that probably doesn't get them in with Tennessee and Georgia on the other side of the draw.
11. Mississippi (8-1) - The Committee was kind to Ole Miss, who doesn't have a good win and lost to LSU pretty badly. Their SOS isn't even good. Seriously, their best wins are Kentucky and Troy.
12. UCLA (7-1) - Three of the last five are Pac-12 teams, all fighting to finish 12-1 which should get them in, unless they are Oregon and are being compared to Georgia.
13. Kansas State (6-2) - We had K-State the #3 2-loss team and a notch further down. Losses to undefeated TCU and 7-1 Tulane, and wins over Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Looking at the initial Committee rankings over the years they seem to really be swayed by the previous week's action, and K-State beat Oklahoma State 48-0 on Saturday.
14. Utah (6-2) -  Our guess had the Utes the 2nd place 2-loss team, instead they are third, but it's not too controversial as their opening loss to Florida looks poor in retrospect (if not at the time even). The win over USC pulls them up though.
15. Penn State (6-2) - The Nittany Lions got a break from the Committee. True, their only losses are to two undefeated teams which you can't really fault. But both were blowouts in the end. Their best wins are Purdue and Minnesota, which is ok. They have a very solid SOS but that's because they played Ohio State and Michigan.
16. Illinois (7-1) - This is about where we had the Illini, obviously one of the lower 1-loss teams as they fell at 3-5 Indiana in their 2nd game. Since then they've done well but the only winning team they've faced is 5-3 Minnesota. This is pretty generous by the Committee, but really, how far down can you put a 1-loss Power Five team at this stage?
17. North Carolina (7-1) - Apparently this is the lowest you can put a 1-loss Power Five team. The Tar Heels lost to Notre Dame, which isn't as bad as Illinois' loss, but their SOS is even lower. They beat 5-3 Duke, which is about equal to beating Minnesota at this point. We had UNC even lower (#21) and the Committee was generous with both teams.
18. Oklahoma State (6-2) - We had the Cowboys #19 so we can't really disagree with this placement. Losses to two ranked teams, and wins over Texas and Baylor, but that 48-0 blanking really affected their first week's rank.
19. Tulane (7-1) - We knew #15 was too high for the Committee to put a 1-loss Group of Five team in the first week—since if they win out at 12-1, they'd have to be even higher logically—but #19 is pretty good for the Green Wave, who beat Kansas State but then fell to Southern Miss (5-3, but not very good). The Committee tends to like the American Athletic Conference, which has major legitimacy from Cincinnati's run last year.
20. Syracuse (6-2) - The ACC needs teams here to help Clemson if the Tigers finish with a loss. We thought the Orange might be a bit higher but this isn't bad.
21. Wake Forest (6-2) - Ok, now the ACC is getting some recognition. Clemson's rank at #4 suggests that the Committee thinks highly of these 6-2 ACC teams.
22. NC State (6-2) - Yet another ACC team. We had them at #25 but they've only lost to Clemson and Syracuse, so they arguably belong here despite few good wins.
23. Oregon State (6-2) - This is important for the Pac-12. We didn't have them in the top 25 but there's no reason why not, at this level the teams are mostly the same and a dozen or so could fit here. The Beavers' only losses are to Utah and USC, and they beat 6-2 Boise State in their opener.
24. Texas (5-3) - I had a hunch we'd see Texas here due to their Strength rating and their close call with Alabama. In terms of good wins they have...Texas-San Antonio? And then there's the 49-0 shutout of Oklahoma. Not sure they're deserving of this ranking but on some weeks they play like a top ten team!
25. UCF (6-2) - The Knights are here so the Committee doesn't look too imbalanced with just Power Five teams. Instead it's 23 Power Five and two from the AAC. UCF earned this spot, which was Cincinnati's to lose, by beating Cincinnati, which is their only good win. UCF lost to East Carolina and Louisville, not great losses. It also means Louisville has wins over two teams in the top 25.

So there you have it. The teams we put in that didn't make it were: Notre Dame (5-3), Maryland (6-2), and FSU (5-3). Should they have been in? The Irish beat 7-1 North Carolina and 6-2 Syracuse, and not many teams inside the top 25 have two top 25 wins. But their bad losses to Marshall and Stanford, both at home, kept them out I'm sure. The Terps are under the radar at 6-2 having lost to Michigan and Purdue, and none of their six wins is over a winning team. In retrospect this wasn't a very good pick. And FSU has three losses, all to teams in the top 25, and a win over LSU as well as 5-3 Louisville. I'd say that résumé beats Texas, but the Longhorns had those two eye-catching games (Alabama and Oklahoma) while FSU hasn't dazzled (they beat LSU by a point, Louisville by 4).

In the end it's pretty disappointing to compare the initial Committee Top 25 to the current AP top 25. The Committee is supposed to be "better" and "more expert' than the AP sportswriters (how, exactly, I'm not sure). For whatever reason, people think the Committee really is the Gold Standard for college football rankings. Talk about how "they respect Strength of Schedule" and all that.

In the end, the Committee has 24 of the 25 teams in the AP Top 25. They traded out Liberty for Texas, that's it. Even the positions are very similar, and the Committee didn't necessarily rank them better. I think Tennessee at #1 instead of Georgia isn't right, and they kept Alabama ahead of TCU. The only major change they made was moving LSU up from #15 to #10. That's it, that's the only move of more than TWO spots from the AP as source material.

Ten teams had the same rank as the AP; eight teams were one spot away; five teams were two spots away. Then there was LSU, and Texas swapped in for Liberty, an obvious choice since Liberty's SOS is around #110.

Why do we have the Committee again?

2022 post-Week 9 Playoff Projection: All of the long-shots are no-shots

Not much happened to shake up the Projected Playoff picture, which meant that the long-shot teams—which have been drying up for weeks—are downright starved anymore. But first let's look at the top of the Projection:

The top four were unchanged, all gaining a small amount because "business as usual" is good for the top teams. Former #5 TCU hit a major bump because of what Kansas State did to Oklahoma State. A Wildcat win was figured into the projection already, when K-State was #23 and Oklahoma State #14. But nothing like 48-0. That win made K-State the favorite to beat TCU in the Big Twelve title game; the last meeting between the teams ended in a TCU home win, 38-28. The Horned Frogs aren't the favorite to beat Baylor anymore. Parity is killing the Big Twelve, which looks very likely to miss out on a Playoff spot. But who knows, things can change fast and TCU is 8-0 so they control their destiny.

The main recipient of TCU's lost odds went to Tennessee, who at 8-0 has a number of ways to get to the Playoff and not a lot has to happen for them to be favored to get a spot. Their most likely trajectory is an 11-1 finish, losing to 13-0 Georgia which isn't a bad spot to be in. Or, if they beat Georgia and lose to Alabama they're got a hell of a résumé at 12-1 and a win over the Bulldogs and the Tide. And of course they could win out and guarantee the top spot. Right now they're still a touch behind Pac-12 fave USC who only has one path. #6 Michigan and #7 Alabama's odds improved, but they also have fewer paths than the Vols. After that we have teams with major résumé flaws (Oregon), teams whose path playing out is unlikely (Mississippi, UCLA), and teams that are counting on chaos (Penn State). Yet all of these teams still show a fairly high Odds% because there is such a limited set of teams that appear to be headed for a decent finish!

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 9 (10/31)

LW  Rnk Team           Rec  Proj %Odds  %Chg  Losses (actuals in bold) 
 1   1. Georgia        8-0  13-0  80.3  +1.8 
 2   2. Ohio State     8-0  13-0  78.6  +1.7 
 3   3. Clemson        8-0  13-0  74.8  +1.6 
 4   4. USC            7-1  12-1  47.3  +1.0  [email protected] 43-42
 6   5. Tennessee      8-0  11-1  39.6 +23.4  @Georgia
 7   6. Michigan       8-0  11-1  16.7  +4.2  @OhioSt
 8   7. Alabama        7-1  11-2  13.0  +2.1  @Tenn 52-49, =Georgia
15   8. Oregon         7-1  11-2   8.9  +5.9  @Georgia 49-3, =USC
10   9. Mississippi    8-1  10-2   8.2  +0.8  @LSU 45-20, Alabama
11  10. UCLA           7-1  10-2   7.5  +0.7  @Oregon 45-30, USC
 9  11. Penn State     6-2  10-2   6.7  -1.3  @Mich 41-17, OhioSt 44-31
23  12. Kansas St      6-2  10-3   4.8  +4.6  Tulane 17-10, @TCU 38-28, @Baylor
 5  13. TCU            8-0  10-3   4.1 -34.6  @Texas, @Baylor, =KState
16  14. Illinois       7-1  10-3   3.4  +1.0  @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt
13  15. Utah           6-2   9-3   2.1  -3.4  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32, @Oregon
20  16. UNC            7-1  10-3   1.3  +0.9  @Notre 45-32, @Wake, =Clemson
12  17. Syracuse       6-2   9-3   0.6  -5.5  @Clemson 27-21, Notre 41-24, @Wake
19  18. LSU            6-2   9-3   0.5  -0.1  FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, Alabama
new 19. Duke           5-3   9-3   0.4  +0.4  @Kans 35-27, @GTech 23-20ot, UNC 38-35
21  20. Texas          5-3   8-4   0.3  +0.1  Alab20-19, TTech37-34ot, @Okst41-34, @KSt
new 21. Baylor         5-3   8-4   0.2  +0.2  @BYU26-20ot, OKst36-25, @WVa43-40, @Tex
18  22. Wake Forest    6-2   8-4   0.1  -0.5  Clem 51-45ot, @Lou 48-21, @NCSt, @Duke
14  23. Oklahoma St    6-2   8-4   0.1  -3.6  @TCU 43-40ot, @KSt 48-0, @Kans, @Okla 
new 24. Oregon St      6-2   8-4   0.1  +0.1  USC 17-14, @Utah 42-16, @Wash, Ore
new 25. Purdue         5-3   8-4   0.1  +0.1  @PSU 35-31, @Syr 32-29, @Wisc 35-24, @ILL

Dropped out: #17 NC State (8-4), #22 Tulane (10-3), #24 FSU (8-4), #25 Washington State (8-4)

And the further down the chart we go, the more actual losses these teams have and we also run into a slew of projected 8-4 teams. Normally at this stage there are a lot more teams with some real hope. The teams projected to be 8-4 might only have one loss (like North Carolina), or more of the teams with two losses have a decent probability of winning out. Not right now; the teams at the bottom of the Projection have several losses and more are on their way. They have a token Percentage to make the Playoff based on their Top 25 finish and that's really it. Normally a team projected to finish #20 after week 9 has at least a 1.0% chance, but our #20 is Texas, who is 5-3 and really has 0% chance. And they're projected to lose another game! For comparison, last year's final Committee standings ranked just one 8-4 team.

The glut of projected 8-4 teams means that the bottom of the Top 25 here is essentially random; teams will move in and out as they have good or bad performances, and any one team is so close to another there's no real separation. Why Purdue and not 8-4 Wisconsin who beat them? Why Oregon State and not 8-4 Washington who is projected to beat them? Just a 1/100th of a point here or there in the formula really. And the Committee of course will do what it does. The first Committee Standings coming out tomorrow will actually help a lot in sorting out the bottom of our Projected Final Top 25, by showing exactly where they stand right now relative to other teams. The 3-loss teams won't appear in it, but where the 2-loss teams are placed will reveal their current value.

The list also has no Group of Five teams for the first time with the exit of Tulane. It's a curious case, too. The Green Wave didn't even play and their projected record fell from 12-1 to 10-3. Here's where it gets weird: Tulane beat Kansas State, who had the biggest win of their season beating Oklahoma State. You would think that would cause Tulane's Strength rating to get pulled upward in concert, but no: almost all of Tulane's other opponents did worse than expected. Especially Alcorn State, who lost to lowly Grambling, a loss that hurt Tulane even more than K-State's huge win!

The upshot was that Tulane now narrowly loses to Cincinnati. Which gives Cincy home field for the American title game. Hence Tulane's 3 losses. But why isn't Cincy in the Final Top 25 then? They lost this weekend to UCF and project to 11-2 which keeps them just outside.

When we start factoring in the Committee's current top 25 there will be some change here, but not that much: more of that happens later, since the Committee's view of things becomes more and more relevant each week, as there are fewer games left to be played.

2022 Week 9 Preview: In conference race, don't lose to a good team

Conventional wisdom is that if you have to lose, lose to a really good team so you don't get saddled with a "bad loss" but the 2-division format of most Conferences makes that bad advice. Most of the time, a loss to a mediocre team is a lot better for your Playoff chances.

Case in point: #1 Georgia. They play Florida at the "neutral" Jacksonville site and what happens if they lose? Are they struggling, hoping for all sorts of losses from other teams? No, they still control their own destiny to a 12-1 finish and a certain Playoff berth.

Meanwhile #2 Ohio State plays at #9 Penn State. Surely a loss to the Nittany Lions won't slow down the Buckeyes much at all, can't be worse than a loss to 4-3 Florida, could it? Well if the Buckeyes lose, even if they beat Michigan there will be a 3-way tie for the Big Ten East and who knows how that plays out. In other words, destiny control is not assured.

You see it with #6 Tennessee and #7 Michigan too. Kentucky and Michigan State aren't threats to win their division, so the Vols and Wolverines still control their destiny to win their conference and get a certain bid. Note that this only works for conferences where a 12-1 finish and conference title guarantees a Playoff berth. #5 TCU no longer controls their destiny if they lose to West Virginia. And you have to be undefeated, too: #4 USC can't take a loss to Arizona.

SportsRatings Projected Final Top 25 Committee Rankings, with Line and next game

Rnk Team            Rec  Proj  Line  This weekend
 1. Georgia         7-0  13-0 -22.5  = Florida 
 2. Ohio State      7-0  13-0 -15.5  @ #9 Penn State    
 3. Clemson         8-0  13-0  ---     idle    
 4. USC             6-1  12-1 -15.5  @ Arizona
 5. TCU             7-0  12-1  -7.5  @ West Virginia   
 6. Tennessee       7-0  11-1 -12.5  Kentucky   
 7. Michigan        7-0  11-1 -22.0  Michigan State   
 8. Alabama         7-1  11-2  ---     idle  
 9. Penn State      6-1  10-2 +15.5  #2 Ohio State
10. Mississippi     7-1  10-2  -2.5  @ Texas A&M   
11. UCLA            6-1  10-2 -16.5  Stanford  
12. Syracuse        6-1  10-2  -2.5  Notre Dame  
13. Utah            5-2  10-2  -7.0  @ #25 Wash State 
14. Oklahoma St     6-1  10-3  +1.5  @ #23 Kansas St
15. Oregon          6-1  10-3 -17.0  @ California   
16. Illinois        6-1  10-3  -7.5  @ Nebraska   
17. NC State        5-2   9-3 -13.5  Virginia Tech  
18. Wake Forest     6-1   9-3  -3.5  @ Louisville   
19. LSU             6-2   9-3  ---     idle  
20. UNC             6-1   9-4  -3.0  Pittsburgh  
21. Texas           5-3   9-3  ---     idle  
22. Tulane          7-1  12-1  ---     idle  
23. Kansas St       5-2   8-4  -1.5  #14 Oklahoma St  
24. Florida St      4-3   8-4 -24.0  Georgia Tech  
25. Washington St   4-3   8-4  +7.0  #13 Utah  

The first really interesting game on the slate is #10 Mississippi at Texas A&M, where the Rebels are not even a field goal favorite; the same goes for #12 Syracuse hosting Notre Dame. Both the Aggies and the Irish are stocked with talent which made them pre-season faves, and the oddsmakers know that talent can rear its head at any moment.

Further, #14 Oklahoma State is actually an underdog vs. #23 Kansas State. Our projection agrees with that result, one reason K-State got back into our projection despite losing to TCU—when OK State beat Texas and joined the Top 25, it gave K-State a boost. The Cowboys can improve their odds a lot with a win, while the Wildcats fall off the chart, again, if they lose.

Other close calls, per the oddsmakers: #18 Wake Forest is a narrow favorite over Louisville. Here again, our projection has the Cardinals winning and being one of Wake's 2 future losses. So the Deacons can move up if they win. And #20 North Carolina is a slim fave over Pittsburgh at home. This is because the Tar Heels aren't very highly thought of in power ratings. We have them #59, and Pitt #60, so it's only home field that gives them the win in our book. It's also why 6-1 UNC is projected to 9-4—winning their division at 9-3 and falling to Clemson in the ACC title game. But at 6-1 the Tar Heels are in better shape than almost any team in the bottom 10 of the projection, and better than #17 NC State and #18 Wake Forest, because they are much closer to controlling their destiny than those teams, both of whom are in Clemson's division and have lost to the Tigers already. We just doubt they'll win out—the trickiest part of "controlling your destiny."

2022 post-week 8 Playoff projection: Top 4 unchanged, TCU knocking on door again

Nothing changed at the top of our Playoff Projection; the top four teams either won (#2 Ohio State, #3 Clemson) or didn't play (#1 Georgia, #4 USC). But those outside and looking in had some bad news, though it was nothing they did wrong.

The problem was previous #9 Texas's loss to Oklahoma State, which set up the Cowboys as TCU's opponent in the Big 12 title game. TCU survived against Kansas State and now looks again like a 12-1 conference champ, putting them roughly on par with #4 USC. That's bad news for the 11-1 teams that aren't projected to make their conference title game, like Tennessee and Michigan, whose odds drop by double digits and slide a spot along with now-#8 Alabama. TCU moves from #10 to #5, just outside the Playoff zone.

Note that all of these teams—TCU, Tennessee, Michigan, and Alabama—control their destiny to the Playoff. Even Mississippi holds a key to the SEC championship game and a guaranteed Playoff berth. That's why their upset loss to #19 LSU doesn't knock them down more than a few spots. #9 Penn State takes advantage of their loss, and UCLA's expected loss to Oregon, to move to #9. The Nittany Lions don't control their destiny however.

SportsRatings Projected Final Playoff Standings: post-week 8 (10/24)

LW  Rnk Team           Rec  Proj %Odds  %Chg  Losses (actuals in bold) 
 1   1. Georgia        7-0  13-0  78.5  +2.6   
 2   2. Ohio State     7-0  13-0  76.9  +2.5   
 3   3. Clemson        8-0  13-0  73.2  +2.4   
 4   4. USC            6-1  12-1  46.4  +5.6  [email protected] 43-42
10   5. TCU            7-0  12-1  38.7 +29.5  @Texas
 5   6. Tennessee      7-0  11-1  16.2 -15.0  @Georgia
 6   7. Michigan       7-0  11-1  12.5 -13.1  @OhioSt
 7   8. Alabama        7-1  11-2  10.9  -7.2  @Tenn 52-49, =Georgia
12   9. Penn State     6-1  10-2   8.1  +2.0  @Michigan 41-17, OhioSt
 8  10. Mississippi    7-1  10-2   7.4  -2.9  @LSU 45-20, Alabama
11  11. UCLA           6-1  10-2   6.8  +0.1  @Oregon 45-30, USC
13  12. Syracuse       6-1  10-2   6.1  +0.6  @Clemson 27-21, @Wake
14  13. Utah           5-2  10-2   5.4  +0.6  @FLA 29-26, @UCLA 42-32
new 14. Oklahoma St    6-1  10-3   3.7  +3.7  @TCU 43-40ot, @KState, =TCU  
15  15. Oregon         6-1  10-3   3.1  -0.3  @Georgia 49-3, Utah, =USC
16  16. Illinois       6-1  10-3   2.4  -0.3  @Indiana 23-20, @Mich, =OhioSt
17  17. NC State       5-2   9-3   1.2  -0.5  @Clemson 30-20, @Syr 24-9, @Lou
18  18. Wake Forest    6-1   9-3   0.6  -0.4  Clemson 51-45ot, @Lou, @NCSt
25  19. LSU            6-2   9-3   0.5  +0.4  FSU 24-23, Tenn 40-13, Alabama
21  20. UNC            6-1   9-4   0.4   0.0  @Notre 45-32, @Wake, @NCst, =Clem
 9  21. Texas          5-3   9-3   0.3  -9.5  Alabama 20-19, TTech 37-34ot, @Okst 41-34
new 22. Tulane         7-1  12-1   0.2  +0.2  SMiss 27-24
new 23. Kansas St      5-2   8-4   0.2  +0.2  Tulane 17-10, @TCU 38-28, Texas, @Baylor
24  24. Florida St     4-3   8-4   0.1   0.0  Wake 31-21, @NCSt 19-17, Clem 34-28, @Syr
new 25. Washington St  4-3   8-4   0.1  +0.1  Ore 44-41, @USC 24-10, @OreSt 24-10, Utah

Dropped out: #19 UCF (9-4), #20 South Alabama (11-2), #22 Purdue (8-4), #23 Minnesota (8-4)

Beyond that, not too much happened that changed things in a big way. As mentioned Oregon was supposed to beat UCLA, and Clemson was supposed to get past Syracuse (an Orange win would have really shaken things up). Due to the Oklahoma State loss knocking Texas to #21, UCLA and Syracuse's odds actually bumped up a bit, while Oklahoma State's entry at #14 pushed Oregon's odds down. LSU's upset win improved their odds from nearly impossible to just-a-little-less impossible. 

In the lower rungs, Kansas State came back in the top 25 despite losing to TCU. The key was Tulane's surge into the top 25. And the key to that was UCF's terrible 34-13 loss to East Carolina. That loss knocked UCF out of consideration and made Tulane the go-to team from the American at 12-1, with a bonus win at K-State. And suddenly that loss doesn't hurt the Wildcats like it did before.

And Washington State peeks in at #25, at least for now. The Cougars have three losses already, so their ranking reflects where they might end up, not any alleged odds of making the Playoff (even 0.1% is too generous). They get in because Purdue and Minnesota both rank below Wisconsin (now projected at 8-4 again), who Washington State beat.

And finally South Alabama falls out after losing to Troy. They still look like the Sun Belt winners to us, but that's probably not going to get them in the Final Committee Top 25.

Texas, Tennessee win big and improve stock

Mid-Saturday breakdown

Tennessee crushed LSU 40-13 and Texas absolutely obliterated Oklahoma 49-0, improving both teams' stock in the Playoff race.

The Volunteers entered the weekend #17, projected at 9-3—with one of those losses coming at #16 LSU. But it looked like a close loss, giving Tennessee hope. As it turned out the game was not close at all as the Vols stormed to a 23-7 halftime lead and coasted to win 40-13.

Now Tennessee looks to be 10-2, and if they continue to play like this we can talk about possibilities for the Georgia and Alabama games, the SEC title, and the Playoff.

Texas came in #23, already holding 2 losses which makes Playoff hopes very slim (we gave them 0.3%). But if any team is going to do it, Texas is set up for a shot. They rank as one of the best teams in the nation, and that will only improve after their 49-0 destruction of Oklahoma. One of their two losses is to Alabama which probably doesn't hurt them much. The game vs. TCU is the big one, and now it looks like they can win that one at home. If they can win the Big Twelve—probably TCU again, but on a neutral field—they'd be 11-2 and within striking distance if a 2-loss team is all that's left.

TCU wins, and Cincinnati can get back on the board

TCU edged Kansas, 38-31, keeping the Horned Frogs 5-0 and still in line for a Big Twelve championship—if they can hold off a surging Texas. We'll have to see what our power ratings look like to know who is favored in the game at Texas, and in a likely rematch in the Big Twelve championship. Projected at 13-0 entering the week it's likely they'll be 12-1 or even 11-2, through no fault of their own based on Texas' performance.

Cincinnati is behind 17-14 at home against South Florida. Assuming they can turn that around, the Bearcats might be projected at 12-1 again, which would put them back in our projected Committee Top 25. Entering this weekend they were seen as 10-3, with two losses to SMU. But the Mustangs were blitzed 41-19 on Wednesday which probably tilts the future games to Cincy—again, assuming they can turn the USF game around.

Another Group of Five team looking to finish in the top 25 is San José State. The Spartans crushed UNLV 40-7, and with their remaining schedule very friendly they're in the mix for a New Year's Day bowl. 

To do that they'd have to hope Cincy falters, as last year's Playoff team would finish in front if both are 12-1. Another strong contender is South Alabama, who has lost only to UCLA this year.

2022 Projected Final Playoff Standings, week 4: FSU, Minnesota suddenly contenders

After a more-mild-than-wild week 4 where most of the top teams underperformed, a few key developments created a couple of big new contenders, and some shifting in the Pac-12 left three teams pegged to finish with just one loss.

First things first, one team fell out of the top four, and it wasn't Oklahoma who lost to Kansas State. Instead it was Clemson, who beat Wake Forest in double overtime to remain unbeaten, but now looks likely to finish just 10-2 with a "new" loss to FSU. The Tigers fell to #12, down 33%. They rank just #20 in the power rating used for this projection.

Replacing the Tigers is Alabama, while Oklahoma hangs on at #4 though dropping 25% in odds. Oregon is #5 and Florida State is #6, both projected 12-1 conference champs which normally insures a bid, but both have a fatal flaw. Oregon's is their big loss to Georgia, while FSU wouldn't pass the "eye test." Alabama's projected loss to Georgia is much closer—barely a field goal—and Oklahoma's loss to Kansas State wasn't terrible. Meanwhile FSU rates as a borderline top 25 team; only their easy schedule makes a 12-1 run look likely and they will have to survive several close calls to get there.

While Georgia still takes the top spot, for the first time they aren't #1 in our power rating; now Ohio State is the favorite to win the national championship. But our Bayesian power rating disagrees with our FBS-only Strength and the All-Divisions Strength, with Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama the #1 teams in each. 

SportsRatings Projected Final Standings for the College Football Playoff: post-week 4 (9/25/2022):

LW   Rnk Team            Rec  Proj  %Odds %chg  Losses (actuals in bold)
 1    1. Georgia         4-0  13-0  77.1  +2.1 
 2    2. Ohio State      4-0  13-0  75.7  +2.0 
 5    3. Alabama         4-0  12-1  50.8 +18.1  @Georgia
 3    4. Oklahoma        3-1  12-1  45.3 -24.9  KansasSt 41-34
 6    5. Oregon          3-1  12-1  37.9 +14.7  @Georgia 49-3
new   6. Florida St      4-0  12-1  27.9 +27.9  @NC State
 7    7. Michigan        4-0  11-1  12.0  +0.6  @OhioSt
new   8. Minnesota       4-0  12-1  10.6 +10.6  =OhioSt
22    9. USC             4-0  11-1  10.1  +9.2  @Utah 
10   10. Tennessee       4-0  10-2   7.5  +0.3  Alabama, @Georgia
17   11. Washington      4-0  11-1   7.0  +3.6  @Oregon
 4   12. Clemson         4-0  10-2   6.6 -33.4  @FSU, @NotreDame
12   13. Utah            3-1  10-3   6.2  -0.2  @Fla 29-26, @Ore, =Ore
14   14. Penn State      4-0   9-3   4.6  -1.0  @Mich, Minn, OhioSt
18   15. Notre Dame      2-2   9-3   4.2  +1.2  @OhioSt 21-10, Marshall 26-21, @USC
19   16. BYU             3-1  10-2   3.7  +1.1  @Oregon 41-20, =NotreDame
16   17. Pittsburgh      3-1  10-3   3.3  -0.5  Tenn OT, @Lou, =FSU
 9   18. NC State        4-0   9-3   2.9  -6.8  @Clem, @Syr, @Lou
new  19. Texas A&M       3-1   9-3   2.4  +2.4  AppSt 17-14, @MissSt, @Alabama
24   20. Cincinnati      3-1  12-1   1.4  +1.2  @Arkansas 31-24
21   21. Baylor          3-1   9-4   1.0  -0.3  @BYU OT, @Okla, @Texas, =Okla 
23   22. TCU             3-0   9-3   0.8  +0.3  Oklahoma, @Texas, @Baylor
new  23. Kansas St       3-1   9-3   0.6  +0.6  Tulane 17-10, @TCU, @Baylor
25   24. Wisconsin       2-2   9-3   0.4  +0.3  WashSt 17-14, @OhioSt 52-21, Minn
new  25. South Alabama   3-1  12-1   0.2  +0.2  @UCLA 32-31

Dropped out: #8 Mississippi (8-4); #11 Texas (8-4); #13 Oregon St (8-4); #15 Miami FL (7-5); #20 Kentucky (8-4)

In addition to Florida State, who was projected at just 8-4 last week, #8 Minnesota made a huge debut. The Gophers were projected 9-3 last week but a 34-7 demolition of Michigan State added to their already-impressive resume to push their projection to 12-0 for the regular season! They're still not close to Ohio State so for now they're 12-1 but within striking distance of the Playoff.

And the Pac-12 candidates kept moving up, too. USC wasn't dominant against Oregon State but the Strength power rating loves them and that helped move them to #9 at 11-1, with Washington also set to be 11-1. Both however lose the Pac-12 tiebreaker to Utah to get in the conference championship game against Oregon. But that's how close things are, there are four teams vying to be 12-1 conference champs. Part of that is because the league is pretty weak this year, and the good teams are separating themselves from the bad ones.

Speaking of weak leagues...the ACC took a big hit with ex-#15 Miami's embarrassing loss to MTSU. Underperformances by Clemson and #17 Pitt allowed FSU to emerge as the conference champ, but that could change. NC State is pegged to beat FSU at home but still slipped to 9-3 with added losses to Syracuse and Louisville.

Other teams that dropped out include former #8 Mississippi, who struggled to beat Tulsa and now projects to just 8-4; #11 Texas who dropped an overtime game at Texas Tech to stand 2-2; Oregon State, who played well against USC but fell short; and #20 Kentucky, who beat Northern Illinois 31-23, weakness that dropped their projected record down a notch to 8-4.

More new entries: Texas A&M is back on the chart after a mild upset of Arkansas propped them back up to 9-3; Kansas State of course got a boost from beating Oklahoma—the Wildcats were looking like a 6-6 team after losing to Tulane and suddenly they are battling TCU and Baylor for the 2nd slot in the championship game. And South Alabama continues their impressive run of overperformance by beating Louisiana Tech 38-14. With their schedule 12-1 is not at all out of the question but won't get them much of a ranking. But it should get them in the final top 25, if their only loss is on the road by 1 point to UCLA.

Dear All-state/ESPN: Please retool the Playoff Predictor

I keep railing against the Playoff Predictor and its occasionally insane pronouncements, but only because overall it seems like a great idea: let fans enter their idea for what happens, and they get the odds for their favorite team making the Playoff (or at least, the 15 teams you're allowed to choose from).

Most of its results are reasonable, even obvious, but every iteration has something ridiculous. This time around—post week 3—here is the most glaring problem:

• Washington goes 13-0; Predictor's odds: 66%

No 13-0 Power Five team has missed the Playoff. Only 2 1-loss Power Five conference champs have missed the Playoff so far.

The only way a 13-0 Power Five team misses the Playoff is if there are 5 13-0 Power Five teams. (Notre Dame and BYU have losses already and aren't an issue)

The odds of having 5 13-0 Power Five teams are exceedingly low, much lower than the 34% chance All-State/ESPN gives for a 13-0 Washington to miss the Playoff.

Even a 12-1 Alabama wouldn't be ahead of a 13-0 Washington for the 4th spot. Maybe 5% of the time at most, if Washington struggled with most of its opponents.

I'd like to see how a 13-0 team is left out 1/3 of the time. What are these scenarios? I take it in most of them have 2 SEC teams, so only three 13-0 teams are needed. By the FPI's numbers, the odds of Georgia, Ohio State, and Clemson going 13-0 is around 1%. So apparently the Predictor thinks that a lot of 12-1 teams would finish ahead of a 13-0 Washington, even for that 4th spot.

It wouldn't happen. Washington's odds at 13-0 should come out to at least 95%, and 99% is more realistic.

/End rant

2022 Projected Final Playoff Standings, week 3: Oregon, Washington, USC give Pac-12 a shot

It wasn't a super-eventful college football weekend but there's a lot of change in our projections for the final College Football Playoff Committee rankings. Oregon increased their odds by double digits, Mississippi jumped, Texas re-entered the top 25 in a big way, and Washington and USC gave the Pac-12 five teams in the mix.

The top three were unchanged as they all won by 41, 56, and 35 points. The fourth place battle between projected 1-loss Clemson and 1-loss Alabama flipped for now to Clemson; as a conference champ they should have an advantage, and right now we have Georgia beating Alabama fairly handily. Not as handily as they beat Oregon, however, and that's why even with a Pac-12 title the Ducks are on the outside looking in.

But Oregon's solid win over BYU did increase their rating enough to tip the Pac-12 title game to the Ducks from Utah, who falls out of the top ten. 

Projected Final Playoff Committee Top 25: post-week 3 (Sept 18)

LW   Rnk Team         Rec   %Odds   %Chg   Chg  Losses projected (actuals in bold)
 1    1. Georgia      13-0   75.1   +0.4      
 2    2. Ohio State   13-0   73.7   +0.3      
 3    3. Oklahoma     13-0   70.3   +0.3      
 5    4. Clemson      12-1   40.0   +3.5   ↑1   @Notre Dame
 4    5. Alabama      12-1   32.6  -11.3   ↓1   @Georgia
 9    6. Oregon       12-1   23.1  +15.7   ↑3   @Georgia
 7    7. Michigan     11-1   11.4   +0.2        @OhioSt
20    8. Mississippi  11-1   10.0   +8.1   ↑12  Alabama
 8    9. NC State     11-1    9.6   -0.3   ↓1   @Clemson
10   10. Tennessee    10-2    7.2   +0.1        Alabama, @Georgia
new  11. Texas        10-3    6.8   +6.8   +    Alabama, =OK, =OK
 6   12. Utah         10-3    6.4   -8.2   ↓6   @Fla, @Oregon, =Oregon
13   13. Oregon St    10-2    6.0    0.0        @Utah, Oregon
11   14. Penn State   10-2    5.6   -1.2   ↓3   @Michigan, OhioSt
15   15. Miami FL     10-3    4.2   -1.1        @TexAM, @Clem, =Clem
16   16. Pittsburgh   10-2    3.8   -1.2        Tenn, @Miami
new  17. Washington   10-2    3.4   +3.4   +    OreSt, @Oregon
22   18. Notre Dame   10-2    3.0   +1.8   ↑4   @OhioSt, Marshall
12   19. BYU          10-2    2.6   -3.8   ↓7   @Oregon, =Notre Dame
21   20. Kentucky      9-3    2.2   +0.6   ↑1   @Miss, @Tenn, Georgia
24   21. Baylor        9-3    1.3   +0.9   ↑3   @BYU, @OK, @Texas
new  22. USC           9-3    0.9   +0.9   +    @OreSt, @Utah, Notre Dame
new  23. TCU           9-3    0.5   +0.5   +    OK, @Texas, @Baylor
23   24. Cincinnati   12-1    0.3   -0.4   ↓1   @Arkansas
new  25. Wisconsin     9-4    0.1   +0.1   +    WashSt, @OhioSt, @MichSt, =OhioSt

Dropped out: #14 Marshall (11-2); #17 Purdue (8-4); #18 Air Force (10-2); #19 Arkansas (7-5); #25 Toledo (11-2)

Mississippi made a big jump too, from #20 to #8. Beating Georgia Tech 42-0 puts them at #10 in our power ratings and makes them the favorite in road games vs. Texas A&M and Arkansas. The Rebels join Michigan and NC State as 1-loss teams that miss their conference title games.

Texas soars back in out of nowhere, too. It's more due to Kansas State's upset loss to Tulane, which gave the Longhorns the win in their future matchup. Texas still loses to Oklahoma twice in our projection, but coupled with their near-miss vs. Alabama they would place near the top 10, still with a shot at the top four.

Washington upset Michigan State—well, we call it an upset, though they oddsmakers favored the Huskies—and now project to 10-2. They're not the only new Pac-12 team in the mix as USC makes their debut, too. Originally #60 in our power rating, the Trojans have moved up each week and now sit at #34 with a 9-3 projection. The Trojans really shine in unbiased power ratings, where none of last season's baggage is considered: they're #2 in our early Strength power rating. Next week we start to integrate some of those results into our projection, and if USC keeps up the good work they might find themselves Playoff contenders pretty soon.

BYU got beat by Oregon, which we expected, but the margin was greater than anticipated and flipped their future neutral-field game with Notre Dame to the Irish, leaving the Cougars at 10-2 and pretty much out of the race if that holds. Even at 11-1 they didn't have the best odds. Miami's loss to Texas A&M hardly moved their needle at all but of course it doesn't help.

Notre Dame is a lynchpin for many teams. The Irish weren't very impressive in their 24-17 win over Cal but they picked up a projected neutral-field win over BYU as the Cougars slipped. Now projected 10-2, the Irish still have "wins" over Clemson, BYU, and USC in their future! The question is, what are the odds of the Irish winning all three of those games, which even in our best-case scenario are 1-3 point victories. The Irish also need to win close games vs. UNC and Syracuse to go 10-2, which is why they aren't higher than #18 despite all this projected good fortune. Notre Dame started at #5 in our power rating and have only slipped to #16, which is probably too high. As we integrate the Strength power rating into our projections, we will see Notre Dame's true quality revealed; they also have their first road game against North Carolina to get through.

Several non-power five schools had a bad weekend and dropped out. Projected conference champs Marshall, Air Force, and Toledo all bit the dust. The first two were upset by poor competition, while Toledo got blasted so bad by Ohio State it gave them a loss next week to San Diego State. Marshall and Toledo are still projected as Sun Belt and Mac champs, while Air Force lost their Mountain West spot to Boise State.

Other dropouts include Purdue (upset by Syracuse) and Arkansas (now projected just 7-5 after a poor showing vs. Missouri State. Filling their shoes are TCU and a re-entry from Wisconsin, once again pegged as the Big Ten West champ following a 66-7 win over New Mexico State. Who says running up the score doesn't help?

2022 College Football Playoff Projected Final Standings post-week 2: Notre Dame hit hard, Oregon rebounds

The big upset didn't happen; Alabama just got past Texas. But as the 2nd full week of results rolled in, teams exceeded or fell short of expectations and there was lots of re-ordering in our College Football Playoff Committee projections.

A New Top Seed

First order of business, we have a new top seed: Georgia, moving to #1 with Ohio State slipping to #2. The reasons for this are obvious: Notre Dame lost, and Oregon had a big rebound, making the Buckeyes' win over the Irish less important and the Bulldogs 49-3 crushing of the Ducks more significant.

Oklahoma chugged along with a clear rival yet to emerge from the Big Twelve pack. Alabama escaped intact, and while Clemson didn't impress they remained in contention for the last spot. With Notre Dame's loss they rise a spot, and Utah is now likely to lose the road game at Oregon, making them 11-2. So two of Clemson's rivals odds dropped, but the Tigers are still expected to lose to the Irish on the road and thus are a slight underdog to take the last spot in the Playoff at this time. If they indeed lose to Notre Dame, how can they get in ahead of 1-loss BYU, who is expected to beat the Irish, and undefeated Marshall, who already did? With Notre Dame less imposing, it also makes the loss stand out compared to Alabama's projected loss to Georgia.

Oregon's rebound comes from their monster 70-14 win over Eastern Washington, year-to-year a very good FCS team, which erases a lot of the bad taste left by their big loss to Georgia. It tips the Oregon State game in their favor as well as UCLA and the regular season Utah game at home. They still lose the Pac-12 championship game to the Utes but it gives them hope. The question now is which Oregon team shows up the rest of the way?

SportsRatings Projected Final College Football Playoff Committee Standings: post-week 2

LW  Rnk Team         Rec   %Odds   %Chg Diff Proj Losses (actuals bold)
 2   1. Georgia      13-0   74.7   +3.8  ↑1  
 1   2. Ohio State   13-0   73.3   +1.1  ↓1  
 3   3. Oklahoma     13-0   70.0   +2.4    
 4   4. Alabama      12-1   43.9   +7.6      @Georgia
 6   5. Clemson      12-1   36.6  +12.9  ↑1  @Notre Dame
 7   6. Utah         11-2   14.6   -5.7  ↑1  @Florida, @Oregon
 8   7. Michigan     11-1   11.3   +0.3  ↑1  @OhioSt
 9   8. NC State     11-1    9.9   -0.8  ↑1  @Clemson
new  9. Oregon       11-2    7.5   +7.5  +   @Georgia, =Utah
12  10. Tennessee    10-2    7.1   +1.0  ↑2  Alabama, @Georgia
13  11. Penn State   10-2    6.8   +1.0  ↑2  @Michigan, OhioSt
17  12. BYU          11-1    6.4   +2.8  ↑5  @Oregon
10  13. Oregon St    10-2    6.0   -2.5  ↓3  @Utah, Oregon
new 14. Marshall     13-0    5.7   +5.7  +  
14  15. Miami FL     10-3    5.3   -0.1  ↓1  @TexA&M, @Clem, =Clem
15  16. Pittsburgh   10-2    4.9   -0.2  ↓1  Tennessee, @Miami
new 17. Purdue       10-2    4.6   +4.6  +   PennSt, @Minnesota
new 18. Air Force    13-0    3.2   +3.2  +  
new 19. Arkansas      9-3    2.3   +2.3  +   Alabama, @MissSt, @BYU
19  20. Mississippi   9-3    2.0   -0.5  ↓1  @TexA&M, Alabama, @Ark
20  21. Kentucky      9-3    1.6   -0.5  ↓1  @Miss, @Tenn, Georgia
 5  22. Notre Dame    9-3    1.2  -27.8  ↓17 @OhioSt, Marshall, =BYU
new 23. Cincinnati   12-1    0.6   +0.6  +   @Arkansas
22  24. Baylor        9-4    0.4   -0.9  ↓2  @BYU, @OK, @Texas, =OK
new 25. Toledo       12-1    0.2   +0.2  +   @OhioSt

Dropped out: #11 Texas A&M; #16 UCLA; #18 SMU; #21 Michigan St; #23 Oklahoma St; #24 Wisconsin; #25 Minnesota

BYU, Marshall, Air Force jump

Tennessee kept their hopes alive with an overtime win at Pitt, which was expected, as was BYU's home win over Baylor, also in overtime. What wasn't expected was Marshall's win at Notre Dame, and it pushed the Herd to a 13-0 projection. It also made BYU the projected winner against Notre Dame, which could have made them 12-0 except that Oregon is now marked as a loss for the Cougars. Still, they're 3-1 against projected top 25 teams now that Arkansas has moved in. This makes BYU and Marshall very hard to rank for the Committee, as BYU plays a half-Power Five schedule and Marshall doesn't play close to a Power Fiver schedule. But they have the win over the Irish, though with Notre Dame picked to be 9-3 now that won't carry them to the Playoff the way it did Cincinnati last season.

Air Force has played two great games and with their paltry schedule they're looking like 13-0 is a possibility. There aren't any big wins unless you count Boise State or Fresno State. The Falcons replace the Broncos in the projected MWC championship game, just as Oregon replaces Oregon State in our Pac-12 projection. The only other shift is Minnesota replacing Wisconsin in the Big Ten West.

Arkansas enters as they project to 9-3, now expected to beat Texas A&M. Speaking of stumbles, seven teams fall out of the top 25 this week, including the Aggies who fell at home to Appalachian State; UCLA, now only 9-3 now due to Oregon's rise; SMU who loses twice to a resurgence Cincinnati; Wisconsin, who lost to Washington State at home and is now expected to be just 6-6; and Michigan State,  Oklahoma State, and Minnesota, all still expected to be have 3 losses but pushed out due to teams barging in.

Those new teams include Purdue, who beats Wisconsin now and goes 10-2; Cincinnati, who as mentioned regains the two "wins" over SMU including the AAC title game after crushing Kennesaw State 63-10 while SMU beat much inferior Lamar just 45-16 (this early in the season, we make judgements with the data we have); and Toledo, who has won two games by a combined 92-10 so far. True, their opponents were LIU and UMass, but with their schedule they're good enough to go 12-1. They face Ohio State and San Diego State next; the first game is a likely blowout loss, while the 2nd is probably very close.

Check back next week to see if the standings are more stable. But at this time of the year, every game adds information that changes the pre-conceived (pre-season) notions about pretty much every team, so the turnover will likely continue for several more weeks.

2022 College Football Playoff Projected Final Standings post-week 1: 4th spot up for grabs

Just one week (or really, one and a half weeks) of college football and the Playoff picture gets skewed. Not that anything is close to certain, but our pre-season projection conveniently had four Power Five teams going 13-0, making the Playoff field obvious. With Florida's upset of Utah, the 4th spot is now anyone's guess even if our game-by-game projections go exactly to plan.

Top Teams Roll, Mostly

Ohio State kept a lock on the top spot by beating Notre Dame, even if it wasn't pretty. The Irish aren't downgraded for the loss, which was expected; in fact they move up a spot due to Utah's loss to Florida. Every other top contender did well: Georgia really made an impression by beating Oregon 49-3. Oklahoma didn't struggle vs. UTEP, Alabama rolled vs. Utah State, and Clemson beat Georgia Tech 42-10 Monday night. 

This leaves the top three unchanged, as Ohio State's resume still tops a surging Georgia, and 13-0 Oklahoma is close behind. But the 4th spot is up for grabs among four teams. Clemson and Utah (who still looks like the Pac-12's best team) would be 1-loss conference champs which should give them the edge over Notre Dame and Alabama. With Clemson's schedule topping Utah's, the Tigers would seem in line for the fourth spot—but their projected loss is to the Irish. And then the question becomes, does a 12-1 Alabama who just lost to Georgia outrank an 11-1 Notre Dame with a very solid résumé?

It would be a very close call, and our odds numbers reflect that. It depends on how much the SEC continues to dominate the pre-conference season (favoring Alabama of course), and also whether USC emerges as a contender (favoring Notre Dame and Utah). And obviously Clemson could render the issue moot by beating Notre Dame.

2022 Projected Final College Football Playoff Standings - post week 1

LW  Rnk Team          Rec  %Odds   %Chg  Chg Losses (projected; actuals in bold)
1    1. Ohio State    13-0  72.2   +2.1      
2    2. Georgia       13-0  70.9   +2.0      
3    3. Oklahoma      13-0  67.6   +2.0      
5    4. Alabama       12-1  36.4  +11.5  ↑1  @Georgia
6    5. Notre Dame    11-1  29.0  +12.6  ↑1  @OhioSt
7    6. Clemson       12-1  23.7  +10.6  ↑1  @Notre Dame
4    7. Utah          12-1  20.4  -39.9  ↓3  @Florida
8    8. Michigan      11-1  11.0   -0.8      @OhioSt
9    9. NC State      11-1  10.7   -0.8      @Clemson
new 10. Oregon St     11-2   8.6   +8.6   +  @Utah, =Utah
17  11. Texas A&M     10-2   6.4   +3.3  ↑6  @MissSt, @Alabama 
12  12. Tennessee     10-2   6.1   +0.2      Alabama, @Georgia
13  13. Penn State    10-2   5.8   +0.2      @Michigan, OhioSt
18  14. Miami FL      10-3   5.4   +2.6  ↑4  @TexA&M, @Clemson, =Clemson
new 15. Pittsburgh    10-2   5.1   +5.1   +  Tennessee, @Miami
14  16. UCLA          10-2   4.8   -0.5  ↓2  Utah, @Oregon
15  17. BYU           11-1   3.6   -0.6  ↓2  =Notre Dame
new 18. SMU           13-0   3.2   +3.2   +  
19  19. Mississippi    9-3   2.4   -0.1      @TexA&M, Alabama, @Arkansas
20  20. Kentucky       9-3   2.1   -0.1      @Miss, @Tenn, Georgia
24  21. Michigan St    9-3   1.8   +0.8  ↑3  OhioSt, @Michigan, @PennSt
new 22. Baylor         9-4   1.2   +1.2   +  @BYU, @Oklahoma, @Texas, =Oklahoma
10  23. Oklahoma St    9-3   0.9   -7.2  ↓13 @Baylor, @TCU, @Oklahoma
25  24. Wisconsin      9-4   0.6   +0.1  ↑1  @OhioSt, @MichSt, @Iowa, =OhioSt
new 25. Minnesota      9-3   0.2   +0.2   +  @MichSt, @PennSt, @Wisconsin

Dropped out: #11 Cincinnati; #16 Boise State; #21 Texas; #22 UTSA; #23 Louisville

Suddenly: Oregon State (and Texas A&M and Pitt)

Michigan (who handily beat Colorado State) and NC State (who barely escaped East Carolina) didn't see their hopes of upsetting Ohio State and Clemson increase and remain at #8 and #9. But Oregon State's fortune's took a surprising turn. Projected 8-4 in the pre-season, the Beavers upset Boise State on Saturday and now look capable of edging Oregon and Fresno State. That puts them at 11-1 and in the Pac-12 title game vs. Utah in the new no-divisional setup. 

Texas A&M picked up some speed leaping to #11. The Aggies now project to 10-2 (up from 9-3) which gets them within striking range if they can get past the Mississippi State road game. And Pittsburgh also moves to 10-2; pre-season, they were expected to drop the Louisville game but the Cardinals laid an egg last week against Syracuse, dropping them out of the projection and putting Pitt in at #15.

Tennessee and Penn State did about as well as expected and hold their spots. Miami did too, and moves up riding on the updrafts from the Aggies (whom they lose to) and Pitt (whom they have a future win over). With more viable teams making the grade, BYU and UCLA are pushed down a few spots.

Conference Championship Games Re-aligned

The Pac-12 wasn't the only projected conference championship game that changed hands. In addition to Oregon State replacing Oregon as the Pac-12 runner-up:

• Baylor replaces Oklahoma State as Big 12 runner-up
• UAB replaces Western Kentucky in the C-USA championship (another no-divisions league)
• Miami Ohio replaces Bowling Green as the projected East rep in the MAC title game
• Marshall replaces Appalachian State in the Sun Belt title game

In four of the fives cases the projected winner remains the same, but Marshall is now favored to win the Sun Belt over Louisiana-Lafayette. 

And more importantly, in the American conference, SMU is expected to win its home game vs. Cincinnati, which would give the Mustangs home field in the conference championship game. The effect of this is that SMU is now picked to go 13-0, and they bolt into the projection at #18. They don't get the same consideration at 13-0 that Cincinnati would, obviously.

Oklahoma State's weak first game allows Baylor to slip into the Big 12 title game, but the main effect is that the Cowboys look vulnerable also vs. TCU and now project to 9-3; that drops them in a hurry to #23, down 13 spots! Minnesota sneaks in at #25, as they are not slight favorites to beat both Nebraska and Iowa and finish 9-3. 

Five new teams enter at the expense of five that drop out: Cincinnati, Boise State, Texas, UTSA, and Louisville. Four of the five lose their first games, all upsets by our pre-season rankings.

Cincinnati is the big one; as mentioned, their loss also tips both SMU games against them and they now project to 10-3. Boise State's loss to Oregon State leaves them at 11-2 and outside the rankings, but both their losses are to top 25 teams. UTSA lost to Houston but can still win the C-USA and go 11-2; they play Texas in a few weeks. The Longhorns didn't lose last week, in fact they did pretty well but Kansas State did very well and now looks like they'll edge Texas in Manhattan, making the Longhorns 8-4. Louisville had the worst opening week of any of our "ranked" teams, falling 31-7 to Syracuse. The Cardinals now project to 7-5.

2022 Week 1 Preview: Ohio State vs Notre Dame a Playoff Eliminator?

A Playoff Eliminator is a scheduled game where the winner makes the College Football Playoff and the loser does not, and necessarily, the teams' fates would be flipped if the outcome were changed. For example, last year's Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati game was a Playoff Eliminator; had Notre Dame won, they would have taken Cincy's playoff spot. A Playoff Eliminator can only be recognized in retrospect. Even though it seemed very important at the time, there was no guaranteed that both teams would go undefeated from that point forward, making it into "just another game."

In terms of our expectations and projections for the two teams, however, Notre Dame at Ohio State on Saturday is a Playoff Eliminator. We expect that the winner will make the Playoff and the loser won't. The Buckeyes are #2 in our pre-season power rating and are projected to finish #1 in the Playoff rankings, while Notre Dame is #5 and projected at #6, close but no cigar at 11-1.

No other games are nearly as important. Although, in retrospect, it's possible that Notre Dame - Ohio State is "just another game" and a different game—perhaps Georgia vs. Oregon—is actually a Playoff Eliminator. Here is a rundown on this weekend's games and their ramifications:

Rnk  Team                   Proj Rec  Opponent            Line
  1. Ohio State                 13-0  vs. #6 Notre Dame  -17.0
  2. Georgia                    13-0  vs. Oregon         -17.0
  3. Oklahoma                   13-0  vs. UTEP           -31.5
  4. Utah                       13-0   @ Florida          -3.0
  5. Alabama                    12-1  vs. Utah St        -41.5
  6. Notre Dame                 11-1   @ #1 Ohio State   +17.0
  7. Clemson                    12-1   @ GA Tech         -21.5
  8. Michigan                   11-1  vs. Colo St        -30.5
  9. North Carolina St          11-1   @ East Carolina   -11.5
 10. Oklahoma St                11-2  vs. Central Mich   -21.5
 11. Cincinnati                 13-0   @ Arkansas         +6.5
 12. Tennessee                  10-2  vs. Ball St        -35.0
 13. Penn State                 10-2   @ Purdue           -3.5
 14. UCLA                       10-2  vs. Bowling Green  -23.5
 15. BYU                        11-1   @ South Florida   -12.0
 16. Boise St                   12-1   @ Oregon St        +2.5
 17. Texas A&M                   9-3  vs. Sam Houston     (-23)
 18. Miami FL                   10-3  vs. Bethune-Cookman (-59)
 19. Mississippi                 9-3  vs. Troy           -21.5
 20. Kentucky                    9-3  vs. Miami OH       -16.0
 21. Texas                       9-3  vs. UL-Monroe      -37.5
 22. UTSA                       12-1  vs. Houston         +4.0
 23. Louisville                  9-3   @ Syracuse         -4.5
 24. Michigan St                 9-3  vs. Western Mich   -22.5
 25. Wisconsin                   9-4  vs. Illinois St     (-36)

• #1 Ohio State vs. #6 Notre Dame
• #2 Georgia vs. Oregon

Like we said, this is the big one. Ohio State is a huge favorite; if Notre Dame wins the Irish will immediately hop to #1 in our projected Final Top 25, since they're have wins over two projected Power Fiver conference champs (Ohio State and Clemson). The Buckeyes would probably fall to #5 since they'd have a conference championship unlike Alabama.

Georgia is similarly favored to beat Oregon, but we have them winning by about 23, as the Bulldogs are our top-rated team and Oregon is just #26. The Pac-12 is in tenuous shape this year and an Oregon win would go a long way to cementing the hopes of the Pac-12 champ, whoever that may be. Right now Utah gets in at 13-0 but probably not at 12-1. Oregon would become another real contender with a win; right now we project them at 9-4, losing to Utah in the title game.

• #3 Oklahoma vs. UTEP
• #5 Alabama vs. Utah State

Two likely blowouts by the oddsmakers, these are really introductions to the new versions of each team. Oklahoma has more to prove as they're only #9 in the AP poll; we have them #6. Alabama is an almost-universal #1 (though we rank them #3). Any difficulty with UTEP will cast further doubt on the Sooners. Alabama struggling at all would be a shock but probably be excused as "looking ahead" to Texas. 

• #4 Utah at Florida

Utah is only our #8-rated team but the easy Pac-12 schedule puts them in the Playoff. It also means they're vulnerable to a loss, or being downgraded due to schedule. The Utes have their biggest non-conference test against Florida; we expect them to win by nearly 10 points but the oddsmakers have them by just three. Losing this game would due huge damage to Utah's chances and to the Pac-12 overall. It would hurt them a lot more than a loss would hurt Ohio State, for example.

• #7 Clemson at Georgia Tech
• #8 Michigan vs. Colorado State
• #9 NC State at East Carolina
•#10 Oklahoma State vs. Central Michigan

These teams are all expected to lose one regular-season game, which generally ends up killing their Playoff hopes. Clemson can still win the ACC but miss the playoff, while Michigan and NC State wouldn't be able to win their conference title. Oklahoma State still makes the Big 12 final but loses again to Oklahoma

So that being the case, obviously they can't afford an unexpected 2nd loss at the beginning of the year to a double-digit underdog. For Clemson, a close call due to a poor offensive showing would evoke memories of last season's struggles, Michigan, NC State, and OK State want to start the year off on a good note, too.

• #11 Cincinnati at Arkansas

This is a hugely important game for Cincinnati, and represents their only hope of repeating as a Playoff team. They need to beat Arkansas, and then hope Arkansas has a fantastic season. Like Notre Dame going 11-1 pushed 13-0 Cincy to the Playoff last year, a 12-1 Arkansas could put 13-0 Cincy in the Playoff this year. The trick is that we have the Razorbacks as 6-6 this year, and the oddsmakers have Arkansas a 6 1/2 point favorite. A 12-1 Cincinnati not only doesn't make the Playoff, they might not even finish in the Committee's top 25 and even a 12-1 finish is no guarantee of the Big Six bowl bid that goes to the top non-Power Five team.

• #12 Tennessee vs. Ball State
• #14 UCLA vs. Bowling Green

Two more teams with a lot to prove. Tennessee is a stellar #7 in our pre-season, so they've got a lot to live up to. UCLA is just #44 but their slight schedule puts them at 10-2. Obviously there's not a lot of room for error for the Bruins to hit that mark. These opening games against outmatched opponents will be the first indication if we overrate Tennessee and/or have way too high expectations for a mediocre UCLA.

• #13 Penn State at Purdue
• #23 Louisville at Syracuse

The Nittany Lions are favored by just over a field goal but our ratings suggest this is an overtime game (double overtime!) waiting to happen. And it falls the Boilermakers way, a lot of things change immediately in our Big Ten projections. First, Purdue goes from 9-3 to 10-2. Second, that makes Purdue the winner of the West division instead of Wisconsin, making the Badgers 9-3 instead of 9-4. Also that makes Purdue 10-3 since they add a loss to Ohio State. With Penn State updated to 9-3, you can see there would be a lot of 3-loss Big Ten teams jockeying for position in the bottom half of our projected Final Committee Top 25.

Louisville also opens with a conference game on the road, and similarly are just a slight favorite. The Cardinals are just 30th in our ratings so we're curious to see how they start the year.

• #15 BYU at South Florida
• #16 Boise State at Oregon State

Two non-Power Five teams hoping for a Big Six bowl bid or, in BYU's case, maybe even better. With Cincinnati in the mix for that bid, every win helps. And since the two teams play each other it will probably be settled on the field with a Big Six Bowl eliminator in November. But in week one both teams face challenges, and both still have to prove that they're even going to be good this season. BYU ranks #13 in our pre-season ratings due to scads of returning talent, while Boise State is #28 but has an easier schedule. The Cougars play Notre Dame so they have a legit shot at becoming a Playoff contender, where going undefeated is a must. Boise State's stakes aren't that high, and they are an underdog in week one (though not in our book, where the Broncos win by a point).

• #17 Texas A&M vs. Sam Houston State
• #18 Miami vs. Bethune-Cookman
• #25 Wisconsin vs. Illinois State

Several years ago the Power Five conferences floated the ridiculous idea of only playing other Power Five teams, decided that was stupid, but went right on scheduling FCS teams. Here we have three cases of various blowout potential, from Miami being a 59 point favorite (by our numbers) to Sam Houston State being a reasonable challenge for the Aggies. The Bearkats went 11-1 last season and if they're still good this year they might keep it within three touchdowns against Texas A&M. We have Wisconsin beating Illinois State by around 5 TDs.

• #19 Mississippi vs Troy
• #20 Kentucky vs. Miami Ohio
• #21 Texas vs. ULM
• #23 Michigan State vs. Western Michigan

These are the also-rans, teams expected to have good years but not threaten to make the Playoff. Losing any of these games would be an elimination. Texas, in particular, is one to watch here as they're rated high as usual and any sign of struggle vs. ULM will be jumped on (if Alabama struggles, they were "looking ahead" to Texas, but if Texas struggles, that won't apply). 

• #22 UTSA vs. Houston 

Finally, an important game for UTSA's shot at a top 25 finish, and also for Houston. We have UTSA finishing 11-1 and Houston 10-2, and if the Cougars win that flips around and Houston has the better chance of being on the Committee's final list.

 

 

 

 

 

2021 Projected Playoff Pairings: Michigan vs. Georgia, Alabama vs. Cincinnati

After a wild day of upsets and expected results seemingly alternating, the Playoff picture is (mostly) clear: Michigan will face Georgia, and Alabama will face Cincinnati.

The question is, in which order do the seeds appear? Alabama looks like the top seed, but it's not impossible for Michigan, after beating Iowa 42-3, could take the top spot. And based on the order on top, Georgia and Cincinnati will swap positions and the Bulldogs finish in the #4 spot. Either order is defensible and would make sense. 

According to our projection there is some chance of Notre Dame or Baylor slipping in, but the actual mechanism is hard to determine. If Cincinnati is #4, Notre Dame isn't getting in. Only if Georgia is #4 can the Irish possibly slip past the Bulldogs, and that's a long shot itself. Baylor is a Power Five conference champ, something that Georgia, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame are not, but they also have 2 losses. Their best possible finish seems like slipping up to #5 ahead of Notre Dame, a move that is also very defensible as they have wins over Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and BYU.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee projection: Final projection before Committee meeting (CFP = previous CFP ranking)

LW  Rnk Team            CFP  Rec   %Odds  %Chg  ±Chg   This weekend:            
 5   1. Alabama          3   12-1  100.0  +62.0  up 4  W Georgia 41-24
 2   2. Michigan         2   12-1   97.7  +14.8  ---   W Iowa 42-3
 1   3. Georgia          1   12-1   76.4  -18.5  dn 2  L Alabama 41-24
 4   4. Cincinnati       4   13-0   66.9  +18.8  ---   W Houston 35-20
 6   5. Notre Dame       6   11-1   31.0   +0.8  up 1  
11   6. Baylor           9   11-2   21.5  +19.9  up 5  W Oklahoma St 21-16
 3   7. Oklahoma St      5   11-2    4.7  -72.5  dn 4  L Baylor 21-16
 8   8. Ohio State       7   10-2    0.8   -5.0  ---  
 9   9. Mississippi      8   10-2    0.6   -2.8  ---  
16  10. Pittsburgh      15   11-2    0.3   +0.3  up 6  W Wake Forest 45-21
12  11. Michigan St     11   10-2   <0.1   -1.3  up 1  
13  12. Brigham Young   12   10-2   <0.1   -1.0  up 1  
20  13. Utah            17   10-3   <0.1    0.0  up 7  W Oregon 38-10
14  14. Oklahoma        14   10-2   <0.1   -0.7  ---   
 7  15. Oregon          10   10-3   <0.1  -12.7  dn 8  L Utah 38-10
18  16. NC State        18    9-3    0.0    0.0  up 2   
19  17. Clemson         20    9-3    0.0    0.0  up 2 
15  18. Iowa            13   10-3    0.0   -0.3  dn 3  L Michigan 42-3
10  19. Wake Forest     16   10-3    0.0   -2.0  dn 9  L Pittsburgh 45-21
21  20. Louisiana-Laf.  24   12-1    0.0    0.0  up 1  W Appalachian St 24-16
22  21. Arkansas        22    8-4    0.0    0.0  up 1  
23  22. Kentucky        23    9-3    0.0    0.0  up 1  
25  23. Texas A&M       25    8-4    0.0    0.0  up 2   
24  24. Houston         21   11-2    0.0    0.0  ---   L @ Cincinnati 35-20
--  25. Utah St         --   10-3    0.0    0.0  New   W @San Diego St 46-13

Dropped out: #17 San Diego State (19 CFP)
     

The odds listed by our projection are heavily influenced by rank position, so it's safe to say that Michigan is a 100% lock. The odds for Georgia and Cincinnati are probably low in certainty, but we don't know for sure what the Committee will do with Georgia, so Notre Dame and Baylor have some percentage chance of slipping in. Everything from Oklahoma State on down should be considered 0%; there's always a trail-off of percentages just to cover all the bases. Formulas round off and show a small percentage chance when there is none. Sorry Ole Miss, there's no hope.

The top 12 looks pretty clear-cut. Utah will come close, but at #13 they should be behind BYU who beat them. The only other mystery is who will replace San Diego State in the top 25, or whether the Aztecs will hang on. 

In short, it really looks like the pairings are set. They aren't going to run a replay of Alabama-Georgia in the first round, so the #3 and #4 will be determined by who they choose as the #1 seed. With of course, a small chance for a surprise from Notre Dame or Baylor that would be pretty controversial.

Baylor 21, Oklahoma State 16: Cincinnati in with win, Notre Dame gets big boost

Baylor led almost the entire game with the help of 4 picks and held on with a goal-line stand to beat Oklahoma State in the rematch, knocking Oklahoma State out of a near-certain Playoff berth and ushering in Cincinnati and probably Notre Dame, too, assuming the Bearcats take care of Houston later today.

The Baylor win moves Cincinnati to #3 with a 76.6% probability, up 28.6% from this morning. Notre Dame is another major recipient as the dynamic changes with an 11-2 Alabama: now Notre Dame is a 1-loss team with their only defeat to a solid Playoff team. At the 5 vs. 6 spot that's not a big difference, but between #4 and #5 the 1-loss team has a big advantage. The win also moves Baylor into Playoff contention but they're probably #6 with the tight win, depending on how Alabama does against Georgia. Baylor moved from a projected #11 to #6, up 26% from a mere 1.7% chance before the game. 

The race for the 4th spot, assuming Georgia beats Alabama, goes like this: Notre Dame has the edge because no 2-loss team has made it, and they're competing with a couple of 2-loss teams. Alabama's hope at 11-2 rests on the assumption that they're really one of the top four teams; they'll need to play Georgia really close to win that narrative. Baylor's hope rests on the Committee valuing conference championship above all else; an 11-2 Alabama doesn't have one, and Notre Dame didn't play for one.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee projection: partial update after 12/04 games as noted

LW  Rnk Team            CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds  %Chg ±Chg   This weekend:             
 1   1. Georgia          1   12-0  13-0   99.4  +4.6  ---   vs. #5 Alabama
 2   2. Michigan         2   11-1  12-1   85.7  +2.8  ---   vs. #15 Iowa
 4   3. Cincinnati       4   12-0  13-0   76.6 +28.6  up 1  (H) #24 Houston
 6   4. Notre Dame       6   11-1  11-1   53.1 +22.9  up 2  
 5   5. Alabama          3   11-1  11-2   36.2  -1.9  ---   vs. #1 Georgia
11   6. Baylor           9   11-2  11-2   27.7 +26.0  up 5  W Oklahoma St 21-16
 3   7. Oklahoma St      5   11-2  11-2    8.3 -68.9  dn 4  L Baylor 21-16
 8   8. Ohio State       7   10-2  10-2    4.2  -1.6  ---  
 9   9. Mississippi      8   10-2  10-2    2.2  -1.2  ---  
10  10. Wake Forest     16   10-2  11-2    1.9  -0.1  ---   vs. #19 Pittsburgh
12  11. Michigan St     11   10-2  10-2    1.6  +0.3  up 1  
13  12. Brigham Young   12   10-2  10-2    1.4  +0.4  up 1  
20  13. Utah            17   10-3  10-3    0.8  +0.8  up 7  W Oregon 38-10
14  14. Oklahoma        14   10-2  10-2    0.5  -0.2  ---   
15  15. Iowa            13   10-2  10-3    0.3   0.0  ---   vs. #2 Michigan
17  16. San Diego St    19   11-1  12-1   <0.1   0.0  up 1  (H) Utah State
 7  17. Oregon          10   10-3  10-3   <0.1  -12.7 dn 10 L Utah 38-10
18  18. NC State        18    9-3   9-3   <0.1   0.0  ---   
16  19. Pittsburgh      15   10-2  10-3   <0.1   0.0  dn 3  vs. #9 Wake Forest
19  20. Clemson         20    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0  dn 1  
21  21. Louisiana-Laf.  24   11-1  12-1    0.0   0.0  ---   (H) Appalachian St
22  22. Arkansas        22    8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  ---   
23  23. Kentucky        23    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0  ---   
24  24. Houston         21   11-1  11-2    0.0   0.0  ---   at #4 Cincinnati
25  25. Texas A&M       25    8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  ---   

The scenario changes more if Iowa upsets Michigan of course, but that can only provide even more boost for Cincinnati and Notre Dame. The only scenario that decreases odds for Notre Dame is a bad result from the Georgia-Alabama SEC title game. A very close Alabama loss is bad for Notre Dame, and an Alabama win is disastrous. The latter puts Georgia in direct competition with Notre Dame for the last spot.

Most assume that Georgia would win that battle—even getting the #3 spot to avoid an immediate rematch with presumed top seed Alabama. But on paper they aren't much different: both would have one loss to a solid Playoff team and not much in the way of big wins. Georgia's top-ranked win is 22nd ranked Arkansas, while Notre Dame beat Wisconsin who fell from the Committee rankings last week; both are 8-4. The teams SOS won't be too different, though the Alabama game will boost Georgia's ranking there.

But Georgia's play over the length of the season likely gets them the last spot, considering Notre Dame didn't have to risk getting another loss in a tough 13th game. So the Irish will root for Georgia to win big and knock Alabama out of consideration. It's the reason Georgia's odds went up 4.6% while Michigan's only went up 2.8%—the Bulldogs are in almost certainly now, win or lose, while Michigan needs to beat Iowa.

The other factor: a Cincinnati loss. One would think this clears another spot for Notre Dame but it might not be that simple. Replacing 12-1 Cincy with 11-1 Notre Dame, who lost to the Bearcats, might be a tough sell for the Committee if it's the last spot left due to a Georgia upset. Baylor would be strongly considered then. But the Committee hasn't seemed to care too much about public backlash in the past, and most commentators seem fine with 11-1 Notre Dame getting in if Cincinnati loses. The difference in overall SOS is stark and the Committee has usually valued that more than head-to-head among teams with similar records.

2021 Week 14, Friday: Oregon's Loss Adds Some Hope for Borderline Playoff Teams

Oregon got destroyed again by Utah, 38-10, eliminating perhaps the shortest of the longshots to make the Playoff. An Oregon win likely put them at #7 in the final standings, one spot ahead of Ohio State and made them our top-ranked 2-loss Power Five conference winner. They had little chance of slipping in—12.7% given the chance for chaos—but that was more than anyone else south of #6 Notre Dame.

Now with the Ducks relegated to the nether regions of the top 25 and 3-loss Utah unlikely to advance past #12 BYU—who beat the Utes earlier in the season—it leaves Ohio State our most likely longshot given the outcomes we project. And the Buckeyes have very little chance as a 10-2 team without a conference championship. They're up to 8.1%, mainly from finishing fairly close to the prize at #7, but that will dwindle in our final output tomorrow after all the games have been played.

It mainly took pressure off Notre Dame and Alabama's fears of being passed by an 11-2 Oregon, something that wasn't too likely to start with. But now if Alabama loses a close game to Georgia they don't have to worry about Oregon, at least.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee projection: partial update after Friday games (12/03/2021)

LW  Rnk Team            CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds  %Chg ±Chg   This weekend:             
 1   1. Georgia          1   12-0  13-0   97.0  +2.2  ---   vs. #5 Alabama
 2   2. Michigan         2   11-1  12-1   85.1  +2.2  ---   vs. #15 Iowa
 3   3. Oklahoma St      5   11-1  12-1   78.8  +1.6  ---   vs. #10 Baylor
 4   4. Cincinnati       4   12-0  13-0   49.2  +1.1  ---   (H) #24 Houston
 5   5. Alabama          3   11-1  11-2   38.7  +0.6  ---   vs. #1 Georgia
 6   6. Notre Dame       6   11-1  11-1   30.3  +0.1  ---   
 8   7. Ohio State       7   10-2  10-2    8.1  +2.3  up 1  
 9   8. Mississippi      8   10-2  10-2    4.1  +0.7  up 1  
10   9. Wake Forest     16   10-2  11-2    2.2  +0.2  up 1  vs. #19 Pittsburgh
11  10. Baylor           9   10-2  10-3    1.9  +0.3  up 1  vs. #4 Oklahoma St
12  11. Michigan St     11   10-2  10-2    1.6  +0.3  up 1  
13  12. Brigham Young   12   10-2  10-2    1.3  +0.3  up 1  
20  13. Utah            17   10-3  10-3    0.8  +0.8  up 7  W Oregon 38-10
14  14. Oklahoma        14   10-2  10-2    0.5  -0.2  ---   
15  15. Iowa            13   10-2  10-3    0.3   0.0  ---   vs. #2 Michigan
17  16. San Diego St    19   11-1  12-1   <0.1   0.0  up 1  (H) Utah State
 7  17. Oregon          10   10-3  10-3   <0.1  -12.7 dn 10 L Utah 38-10
18  18. NC State        18    9-3   9-3   <0.1   0.0  ---   
16  19. Pittsburgh      15   10-2  10-3   <0.1   0.0  dn 3  vs. #9 Wake Forest
19  20. Clemson         20    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0  dn 1  
21  21. Louisiana-Laf.  24   11-1  12-1    0.0   0.0  ---   (H) Appalachian St
22  22. Arkansas        22    8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  ---   
23  23. Kentucky        23    9-3   9-3    0.0   0.0  ---   
24  24. Houston         21   11-1  11-2    0.0   0.0  ---   at #4 Cincinnati
25  25. Texas A&M       25    8-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  ---   

Overall it's a pretty small piece of clarity. In our projection it also had the odd effect of knocking Pittsburgh down a few more spots, but Pitt can compensate for that by beating Wake Forest and they'll end up in the top 10 instead.

The other game tonight saw UTSA beat Western Kentucky 49-41 to finish 12-1 and with the C-USA. That gives them a small chance to break into the top 25 but their loss to North Texas was too resounding and recent for them to push Texas A&M out, and their win too narrow. Their best bet is for Louisiana-Lafayette to lose to Appalachian State, which would knock the Ragin' Cajuns out and open up a slot for the Roadrunners. Houston's #24 finish assumes a loss to Cincinnati already.

2021 Final Playoff Standings projection post-week 12: No changes, just more clarity

There's not a lot of change in our projections this week, which isn't a surprise since all the favored teams—the ones we favored at least—won as expected. Since ours is a Projection, those results were mostly already taken into account, whereas the Committee will have a lot of revising to do on Tuesday we don't.

Three teams had a chance to establish themselves as favorites to become 12-1 Power conference champions: Oregon, Wake Forest, and Michigan State. All three failed, often spectacularly. Of the three only the Spartans moved a lot from last week. Oregon, 3rd in the Committee rankings, was #7 last week on our projection and drops one spot. Wake Forest was #8 and falls to #10.

In Oregon's case it was the magnitude of the loss: 38-7 doesn't play well with the Committee. It also puts a lot of doubt as to whether the Ducks can win the rematch, but they're still (barely) pencilled in as Pac-12 champs. That could change.

Wake Forest was only 10th per the Committee, so after dropping for their big loss to Clemson they'll be lucky to claw their way back in the top ten. The loss was expected but another result—Pitt's win over Virginia—changed their ACC Coastal foe and made it a much tougher proposition to finish 11-2. It's close to 50/50 vs. Pittsburgh for the ACC title.

Meanwhile, while we're saying there are no changes, somehow there is a new #1 team. Georgia moves into the top spot for the first time this year in a paradoxical move: they're still pegged to (barely) lose the SEC title game to Alabama, but their odds to make the Playoff are greater than Alabama's given the potential scenarios. That is, a 12-1 Georgia is very likely still in, an 11-2 Alabama is very likely out. So while the Bulldogs only finish at the top if they go 13-0, their odds have moved them there despite a forecast 12-1 finish, and they gain more in odds percentage than any team this week. Alabama's difficulties vs. Arkansas didn't make the prospect of beating Georgia any more likely, that's for sure.

Ohio State and Oklahoma State hold as the other entrants. The Buckeyes demolished Michigan State almost exactly parallel, quarter for quarter, the way Georgia did to Charleston Southern. And the Cowboys blanked Texas Tech, which doesn't happen often. The Red Raiders were averaging over 33 points per game and hadn't been shut out since 1997.

SportsRatings College Football Playoff Committee Rankings final projection: post-week 12 (11/22/2021 w/last week's CFP ranking, current and projected record)

LW  Rnk Team           CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds  %Chg  ±Chg  Results:            
 2   1. Georgia         1   11-0  12-1   78.9  +8.2  up 1  W Charleston 56-7
 1   2. Alabama         2   10-1  12-1   76.2  +3.4  dn 1  W Arkansas 42-35
 3   3. Ohio State      4   10-1  12-1   71.4  +5.0  ---   W Michigan St 56-7
 4   4. Oklahoma St     9   10-1  12-1   64.5  +4.4  ---   W @Texas Tech 23-0
 5   5. Cincinnati      5   11-0  13-0   37.6  +2.2  ---   W SMU 48-14
 6   6. Notre Dame      8   10-1  11-1   30.7  +1.6  ---   W Georgia Tech 55-0
 9   7. Michigan        6   10-1  10-2   12.9  +3.7  up 2  W @Maryland 59-18
 7   8. Oregon          3    9-2  11-2    7.8  -4.7  dn 1  L @Utah 38-7
11   9. Mississippi    12    9-2  10-2    6.2  -0.7  up 2  W Vanderbilt 31-17
 8  10. Wake Forest    10    9-2  11-2    4.6  -5.7  dn 2  L @Clemson 48-27
10  11. Baylor         11    9-2  10-3    3.0  -5.1  dn 1  W @Kansas St 20-10
12  12. Brigham Young  14    9-2  10-2    1.9  -4.0  ---   W @GA Southern 34-17
13  13. Oklahoma       13   10-1  10-2    1.4  -3.3  ---   W Iowa State 28-21
14  14. Iowa           17    9-2  10-2    1.0  -2.6  ---   W Illinois 33-23
20  15. Texas A&M      16    8-3   9-3    0.5  +0.2  up 5  W Prairie View 52-3
18  16. Pittsburgh     18    9-2  10-3    0.4  -0.2  up 2  W Virginia 48-38
17  17. Wisconsin      15    8-3   9-4    0.3  -0.4  ---   W Nebraska 35-28
16  18. UTSA           22   11-0  13-0    0.2  -0.6  dn 2  W UAB 34-31
19  19. Clemson        --    8-3   9-3    0.1  -0.3  ---   W Wake Forest 48-27
21  20. Utah           23    8-3   9-4   <0.1  -0.2  up 1  W Oregon 38-7
15  21. Michigan St     7    9-2   9-3   <0.1  -0.9  dn 6  L @Ohio State 56-7
23  22. Louisiana-Laf. --   10-1  12-1   <0.1   0.0  up 1  W @Liberty 48-14
24  23. Houston        24   10-1  11-2    0.0   0.0  up 1  W Memphis 31-13
25  24. Penn State     --    7-4   8-4    0.0   0.0  up 1  W Rutgers 23-0
--  25. NC State       20    8-3   8-4    0.0   0.0  new   W Syracuse 41-17

Dropped out: #22 Arizona State

Cincinnati and Notre Dame are #5 and #6 but despite close percentage numbers, their realities are pretty far apart. It's true that the Irish are putting up good performances—55-0 vs. Georgia Tech is something Georgia is unlikely to accomplish next week—but they are almost in a position of needing the Bearcats to lose to have any hope. There are many ways a spot can open up for Cincinnati, but even two spots opening up doesn't mean Notre Dame gets in. If spots are guaranteed for Georgia-Alabama, Ohio State-Michigan, and Oklahoma-Oklahoma State if they win out, then Cincinnati is well-situated to take the last slot—if the losing SEC team doesn't. But any chaos—a Wisconsin Big Ten win, or Baylor winning the Big 12—puts Cincy in but the Irish are either #5 or #6 without a Cincinnati loss.

In other words, it isn't difficult to make a scenario where Cincinnati is in. But building a Notre Dame scenario is a lot tougher, even though they're next in line. The "roadblock" effect, along with not having a conference championship, is all the difference.

Michigan moves up to #7 with hopes to unseat Ohio State next weekend. Note that only the top seven teams increased their odds of making the Playoff while everyone else dipped; that's because it's crunch time and the results are coming in. There are not many points left for potential.

Michigan State the biggest loser, Texas A&M the big winner

Michigan State suffers the biggest fall, from #15 to #21. They remain projected at 9-3 which includes a loss next week to Penn State, so they still have opportunity on their side. But without a chance for a conference title they have no real chance at all. The Spartans were supposed to lose, but they weren't supposed to lose 56-7 and the Committee really hates blowout losses.

Texas A&M meanwhile moves up from #20 to #15, all due to the Committee's ranking of 16th from last week. Can't argue with the actual ranking when you're projecting...the actual ranking. Five spots for beating Prairie View A&M is a pretty good deal. They also gain a tiny amount of odds, up from 0.3% to 0.5% to make the Playoff, but that's basically a rounding error saying they have no hope.

Pittsburgh pulled off the only real 'upset' according to our projections, and that puts them at 10-2 instead of the 9-3 we had before. But they're just on the wrong end of the ACC title game vs. Wake Forest so they still have three losses and jump only to #16. This leaves open a shot to move up further in the final rankings of course.

Clemson didn't get the same boost. The Tigers already have three losses and they didn't make the conference title game and stay at a projected #19. They haven't made the actual Committee rankings yet so this may proved to be too high.

Utah only marginally boosted their profile as they'll have to beat Oregon again to win the Pac-12 and beating a team twice—even one you beat 38-7—is tough. This one won't be a home game either. Mostly the Utes will be playing "what if" as in, what if we hadn't lost in overtime to San Diego State, and hadn't let Oregon State come back on us...then the Pac-12 championship would likely be for a Ute Playoff berth.

Three non-Committee teams left

Now that once-promising Arizona State has exited the stage for good, and there might not be any new teams in the Committee's list this week, there are only three teams on our list that aren't on theirs (and vice versa). We covered Clemson; a 9-3 Clemson will probably make a token appearance in the final or penultimate rankings. Penn State will make it in if they beat Michigan State, and won't if they don't. That leaves Louisiana-Lafayette, 10-1 now after an impressive 48-14 road win at Liberty. There's no room this week but if the Ragin' Cajuns go 12-1 they'll be in the final poll.

2021 Final Playoff Standings projection post-week 11: Oklahoma OUT, Oklahoma State IN

One of Malcolm Gladwell's famous books is The Tipping Point, referring to the point at which a very subtle shift triggers a major change. Well, our College Football Committee final standings projections had one of those after this weekend.

Oklahoma's loss, which we figured would drop the Sooners from #2 to #4, instead pushed them from 13-0 to a projected 10-2 and all the way down to #13. The reason is that the game at Oklahoma State became a loss, and with that the Big 12 Championship Game no longer includes Oklahoma. Instead it's Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, with the Cowboys the projected winner. They finish 12-1 and #4 in our projection, up from #9 last week.

Oklahoma State has been playing lights out since their 24-21 loss at Iowa State. They beat Kansas 55-3—the same Kansas team that almost upset the Sooners and did upset Texas on Saturday. They handled West Virginia 24-3 on the road, then blasted TCU 63-17 the week after the Horned Frogs had upset Baylor.

Their improvement is as much responsible for the switch as Oklahoma's noted struggles, but without the Baylor upset Oklahoma would still make the Big 12 title game and possibly still win on a neutral field. That was Oklahoma's best 12-1 scenario. Now they have to beat Oklahoma State twice, and beating the same team twice in a row just doesn't have the same impact on the Committee (who already ranked them pretty low at #8). It also devalues your main conquest. So Oklahoma's chances going forward are definitely compromised. They'd be better off winning a rematch with Baylor, but that would require Oklahoma State to lose next week to Texas Tech.

Georgia and Ohio State moved up to #2 and #3 after beating Tennessee and Purdue, two solid wins. Alabama beat the 51-point spread against woeful New Mexico State and remained #1. Cincinnati remained outside looking in at #5, with Notre Dame and Oregon following at #6 and #7.

SportsRatings Projected Final College Football Committee rankings, post-week 11
(11/14/2021, with last week's CFP ranking and weekend results):

LW  Rnk Team           CFP  Rec   Proj  %Odds   %Chg  ±Chg   Results:
 1   1. Alabama         2   9-1   12-1   72.8   +1.5   ---   W NM State 59-3
 3   2. Georgia         1  10-0   12-1   70.7   +5.1   up 1  W @Tenn 41-17
 4   3. Ohio State      4   9-1   12-1   66.5   +6.9   up 1  W (19)Purdue 59-31
 9   4. Oklahoma St    10   9-1   12-1   60.2  +50.3   up 5  W TCU 63-17
 5   5. Cincinnati      5  10-0   13-0   35.4   +0.5   ---   W @USF 45-28
 6   6. Notre Dame      9   9-1   11-1   29.1   +0.2   ---   W @Virginia 28-3
 7   7. Oregon          3   9-1   11-2   12.5   -0.1   ---   W Wash St 38-24
11   8. Wake Forest    12   9-1   11-2   10.4   +2.2   up 3  W (16)NC State 45-42
16   9. Michigan        6   9-1   10-2    9.2   +8.2   up 7  W @#13 Penn St 21-17
17  10. Baylor         13   8-2   10-3    8.1   +7.1   up 7  W #2 Oklahoma 27-14
 8  11. Mississippi    15   8-2   10-2    7.0   -3.7   dn 3  W #21 Texas A&M 29-19
10  12. BYU            14   8-2   10-2    5.8   -3.2   dn 2    idle
 2  13. Oklahoma        8   9-1   10-2    4.7  -64.8   dn 11 L @#17 Baylor 27-14
12  14. Iowa           20   8-2   10-2    3.6   -3.7   dn 2  W Minnesota 27-22
14  15. Michigan St     7   9-1    9-3    0.9   -1.4   up 1  W Maryland 40-21
18  16. UTSA           23  10-0   13-0    0.8    0.0   up 2  W So. Miss 27-17
19  17. Wisconsin      18   7-3    9-4    0.7    0.0   up 2  W Nwestern 35-7
20  18. Pittsburgh     21   8-2    9-3    0.6   +0.1   up 2  W UNC 30-23 OT
15  19. Clemson        --   7-3    9-3    0.4   -1.1   dn 4  W UConn 44-7
21  20. Texas A&M      11   7-3    9-3    0.3   -0.1   up 1  L @#8 Ole Miss 29-19
22  21. Utah           24   7-3    9-4    0.2   -0.2   up 1  W @Arizona 38-29
23  22. Arizona St     --   7-3    9-3    0.1   -0.2   up 1  W @Washington 35-30  
24  23. Louisiana-Laf. --   9-1   12-1   <0.1   -0.2   up 1  W @Troy 35-21
25  24. Houston        --   9-1   11-2   <0.1    0.0   up 1  W @Temple 37-8
13  25. Penn State     --   6-4    8-4    0.0   -3.2   dn 12 L #16 Michigan 21-17

Dropped out: none

Michigan's win over Penn State was an "upset" by our projections so it helped the Wolverines as much as Baylor's win did them; both jumped 7 spots and are projected 10-2, neither making their conference title games. The Nittany Lions suffered their 4th loss but held on to our #25 spot since they're still pegged to beat Michigan State in 2 weeks.

Wake Forest beat NC State and jumped from #11 to #8, and this change is even weirder than a "tipping point"—it's a bug fix. Our projection had been wallowing under the mistaken impression that, since North Carolina is in the ACC, Wake Forest's loss to the Tar Heels—which had been projected all season—would count as a conference loss. But it turns out it's a non-conference game. Which means Wake Forest is the Atlantic winner (and should have been for several weeks). This gives them a conference title, beating Virginia and finishing 11-2. Mississippi falls to #11 despite beating Texas A&M because of Wake's technicality and being passed by the 2 other 10-2 teams from behind. BYU and Iowa are also pushed down 2 spots from the surging duo, while Michigan State falls just one spot to #15.

And since Clemson no longer gets to the ACC title game they become a typical 9-3 team and slip accordingly, allowing UTSA, Wisconsin, and Pittsburgh, all of whom won a game one way or another, to rise a bit but without increasing their tiny odds of making the Playoff.

The rest of the list moves up a spot due to Penn State's slide from #13 to #25. This includes Texas A&M (who lost to Mississippi), Utah (who escaped Arizona's upset bid), Arizona State (who beat Washington and made them fire their coach), Louisiana-Lafayette who beat Troy, and Houston who handled Temple easily.

No teams fell out of the projection this week, the first time that's happened. Penn State is still projected to be 8-4, and with Auburn losing and now projected to be 7-5, Penn State held on at #25. Teams that are in our Projection but not the Committee's top 25 went 4-1 this week after going 6-0 last week for a cumulative 10-1.

On the other hand, teams only in the Committee's top 25 and not in our Final Projection went 2-3 after a 2-4 outing last week, for a 4-7 record. This weekend (16) NC State, (17) Auburn, and (19) Purdue all lost, while (22) San Diego State won and (25) Arkansas edged LSU in overtime.

That makes room for 2 or 3 new teams in the upcoming Committee top 25. It doesn't look like any of the five in our projection are ripe for entry necessarily. Certainly Penn State won't make their debut this week, and there's no compelling reason for a 3-loss Clemson or ASU yet. 9-1 Louisiana? Maybe. 9-1 Houston is probably the most likely of the five to show up on Tuesday.

As for the opposite: Considering they keep losing, there's not much reason for the Committee's teams to show up in our projection. Of the only two that won this week, San Diego State is projected 10-2 so they're on the brink but probably need to beat Boise State in 2 weeks to make the Mountain West title game. Arkansas is actually #26 at a projected 8-4, so they might make it next week even if they lose to Alabama. And if they beat Alabama, they'll jump in for sure.

College Football Playoff: No, Cincinnati didn't get screwed—yet

It looks like there's already a lot of whining about Cincinnati placing #6—#6 in the nation!—in the first College Football Playoff Committee rankings.

As if people expected them to put Cincinnati in the top four, thereby prematurely agreeing that a 13-0 Bearcat team had to be in the Playoff?

Cincinnati is where they had to be—close enough so that the Committee could decide to put them in, and outside far enough so that they don't have to push them out of the top four if teams with much better résumés come along.

Look at Oklahoma and Wake Forest, both undefeated. If the Committee were so disgustingly biased to Power Five conferences (they are biased, but mostly because the Power Five conferences have the best teams) then Oklahoma and Wake Forest both would have been above Cincinnati. Both have stronger schedules than the Bearcats. Cincinnati can't live on its win over Notre Dame alone—unless Notre Dame could show it was a definite Top Four team.

But the Committee did take the Notre Dame win into account—by putting Cincinnati, woeful schedule and all, at #6, higher than #8 Oklahoma and #9 Wake Forest.

If Georgia, Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest all win out, Cincinnati should definitely not make the Playoff. Even Wake's ACC schedule is tougher than what Cincy has faced. 

Not only that, but having a 1-loss Power Five team ahead of the Bearcats wouldn't necessarily be unfair.

Here are two scenarios that are definitely unfair:

• Notre Dame gets in at 11-1 ahead of Cincinnati. Hopefully this one is obvious.
• A 2-loss team gets in ahead of a 13-0 Cincinnati.

That last scenario could happen with Alabama losing a close game to Georgia. I hope the Committee would look at college football history, where no 2-loss team has won a championship (except 2007 LSU who had 2 triple-overtime losses), and say, ok Alabama you had your chance, sorry. But since they started Alabama at #2, a 2-loss Bama in the Playoff is a real threat.

It would help matters if Cincinnati really looked like a top four team. They're close—definitely top ten level—but no cigar. They don't rank in the top four in any power rating. They're right on the cusp, though, so they could help their cause by really dominating against their weak schedule. Then it would make people want them to get in for reasons other than their being the first non-Power Five team to make the Playoff.

And that's the bottom line. People want to see Cincinnati get in not because they obviously deserve it, but because they're a Cinderella of sorts. I'd want Cincy in if they looked like a top four team, or had a top-four résumé, either one. And stop bringing up "almost beating Georgia" last year—previous years aren't supposed to be factored in at all. But it's the only reason Cincy is even close to sniffing the top four.

So which teams were ahead of Cincinnati that shouldn't have been? And will it matter by the end of the season that they were ranked ahead?

1. Georgia - I hope no one seriously argues Cincinnati should have been ahead of the Bulldogs
2. Alabama - You can make a case here since the Tide have a loss, and Cincy has a better win. But it won't matter in the end if Alabama beats Georgia. It WILL matter if Alabama loses to Georgia by a point, finishes 11-2, and stays in the top four.
3. Michigan State - If the Spartans go 13-0 in the Big Ten there's no possible argument for having Cincinnati ahead of them. If they lose a game but win the Big Ten at 12-1, their schedule will be miles ahead of the Bearcats and still could be validly ahead of them.
4. Oregon - Another possible quibble, since the Ducks lost to Stanford. The lame excuse that their OC was unavailable for the game is a joke; they had the game won and blew it, anyone with a functioning brain should have carried them home to that win. But regardless, a 1-loss Oregon being ahead of Ohio State is correct; the quibble here should be with putting Ohio State so high. Does Notre Dame (and therefore Cincy) deserve to be higher than Ohio State?
5. Ohio State - They lost at home to Oregon—and obliterated almost everyone else lately. The Buckeyes have been winning the way Cincinnati needs to win against a so-so schedule. That's what style points are: margin of victory. If you're in the Group of Five you can prove your worth by destroying your opponents. Cincy was doing that until the few weeks, they just need to pick it up again.

Maybe they have a valid argument. But maybe so do Michigan, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest—even Oklahoma State and Baylor, too. Any one of those teams could be reasonably ranked higher than Cincinnati.

Of the five teams ranked ahead of Cincinnati, only Georgia has an unquestionably better résumé at this point. I think Michigan State's is better now, too—their SOS is much better, and the Michigan win is at least the equal of the Notre Dame win.

But in terms of which team is better? I think it's clear Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State have played better football, and Michigan State probably has too. Cincinnati has played better than Oregon without question—but you have to put Oregon ahead of Ohio State if you value head-to-head results.

The bottom line is that the Committee put Cincinnati exactly where they should be, giving the Committee the flexibility to move the Bearcats where they deserve to be at the end of the season, be that in the top four or outside of it. This week's ranking isn't wrong in any way. 

But the Committee's final ranking might be. If a 2-loss Alabama or, even worse, a 2-loss Auburn (who would beat Alabama AND Georgia along the way) block a 13-0 Cincinnati from getting in the top four, that would really suck. (Just wait until the 12-team Playoff full of shitty 3-loss teams. Gross.)

My guess is that Cincinnati will sadly end up #5, just outside looking in, and everyone will complain, but it will be where they deserve to be. I'll only be disappointed at that eventuality if a 2-loss team keeps them out, or if they raise their level of play to true top four in the country and still are denied. Right now they're not there—they are literally "close but no cigar" in every aspect, and the Committee's ranking reflects that.

Or, the other thing that tends to happen when teams complain about being underranked? They lose, making their point moot. So far I haven't heard the team complaining—Coach Luke Fickell did in a way, taking a shot at Iowa AD Gary Barta—but if they focus on their ranking rather than winning, it will all be for naught. That's happened so often it's almost a cliché, so Cincinnati better worry about taking care of business rather than worrying about the Committee's business.

Picking Apart the Allstate Playoff Predictor

The Allstate Playoff Predictor at ESPN is pretty cool. You can set the results of future games and get immediate feedback as to the team's odds of making the Playoff based on the FPI's projection (we'll just call it Allstate's projection from here on, as if they had anything to do with it other than stamp their name on it as a sponsor). We're looking at the version from October 26 and we'll review its conclusions, which are mostly on track but sometimes leave us scratching our heads.

By comparing two teams at a time and showing their odds if they win out, we can see what the projection is thinking. Remember, these are not odds to win out, these are Allstate's odds to make the Playoff given that the team wins out.

Georgia (13-0): >99%
Alabama (12-1): 99%

If Georgia wins out and goes 13-0, they have a >99% chance of getting to the Playoff. That's not a tough conclusion, in fact I wouldn't blame them if they just said 100%, as no 13-0 Power Five team has ever missed the Playoff and Georgia would be one of the strongest candidates yet. Alabama winning out, on the other hand, yields a 99% probability. I guess that's accurate, though I think >99% would be fine, too. SEC champ and beating Georgia ==> you're in the top four, guaranteed.

Above: The AllState Playoff Predictor had a really high opinion of the Alabama State Hornets, giving them a 50% chance to win the SEC. Just hours ago they decided the Crimson Tide were a better fit.

Georgia (12-1): 90%
Alabama (11-2): 59%

Here are the odds for each if they LOSE in the SEC title game. Georgia at 12-1 still has a 90% chance of making it, which might be a touch high. They might not have the normal 70% for a 1-loss Power Five team since they wouldn't have a conference championship (only 37.5% of 1-loss non-conference champs have made it). Alabama's 59% odds at 10-2 seem a bit high since no 2-loss team has ever made it. I'd give Georgia the 59%, Alabama closer to 39%.

Michigan (13-0): > 99%
Michigan St (13-0): 95%

Michigan at >99% makes sense if they finish 13-0, but 95% for a 13-0 Michigan State is too low considering they have exactly the same path to the title as the Wolverines. There's no 5% chance a 13-0 Michigan State ends up outside the top four; there's just no conceivable case where that happens. Both results should be >99%.

Oklahoma (13-0): 99%
Cincinnati (13-0): 88%

Now we compare two teams finishing 13-0. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12 they're in 99% of the time. I'd call it >99% but maybe there's a chance a 13-0 Oklahoma still looks bad enough to be left out for the very first time for a 13-0 Power Five team. Cincinnati's 88% is correct in being lower than Oklahoma's odds, but probably still too high. No non-Power Five team has made it yet, so I'd even suggest 50% is on the cusp of being too high.

Ohio State (12-1): 95%
Oregon (12-1): 28%

This one's a kick in the pants. If Ohio State wins out they get in 95% of the time; Oregon, who beat Ohio State, only gets in 28% of the time. Both of these numbers are too low: the Buckeyes at 12-1 with a Big Ten championship should be >99%, and Oregon would at least be the basic 70% shot a 1-loss teams has, even if the Pac-12 championship doesn't carry much weight. Add to that their win over Ohio State and 28% is a joke. They'll get a lot more consideration than that, probably 60%. I don't doubt Ohio State finishes higher at 12-1 than a 12-1 Oregon, but the difference in making the top four is not this great. Remember: 87.5% of 1-loss Power Five conference champs have made it in the past.

Iowa (12-1): 44%
Iowa St (11-2): 40%

Here's another one that's hard to explain. A 12-1 Iowa, winning out and winning the Big Ten, sits at just 44%? That's almost exactly half of the historical 87.5% rate for 1-loss Power Five conference champs. They do have a bad loss to Purdue and they wouldn't have the same tough schedule the teams in the Big Ten East did, so their odds wouldn't be >99% but would be pretty close considering they have to beat the East champ. Meanwhile Iowa State already has 2 losses; how does a Big 12 championship give them a 40% chance? When no 2-loss team has ever made it? It's not like there's a dearth of teams that could finish with 1 loss or fewer, and with Cincinnati around how does Iowa State ever get it? Also, Iowa beat Iowa State and it looks like only Iowa State is benefitting from that game. 

Oklahoma St (12-1): 30%
Baylor (12-1): 31%

Here's more insult for the Big 12: Oklahoma State and Baylor, as 12-1 Power Five conference champs, don't even match the odds that Iowa State pulls as an 11-2 team. It's not like there's a big gulf separating them. Yes, Iowa State just beat Oklahoma State. But Baylor beat Iowa State and Oklahoma State beat Baylor. The only difference in these teams is that Iowa State lost to Iowa; it seems the SOS boost from that game outweighs the additional loss. Both Oklahoma State and Baylor should at least be above the 70% chance that a 1-loss Power Five team has, and Iowa State's odds should be closer to 25%. But Allstate is right in that these teams, who have basically cloned schedules and results, would have almost the same exact odds at 12-1. It's just that Power Five conference winners with 1 loss make the Playoff at an 87.5% clip, not 30.5%.

Pittsburgh (12-1): 70%
Notre Dame (11-1): 41%
Mississippi (11-1): 39%   
Mississippi (12-1): 85%

Finally a grab-bag of three teams in different situations. Pitt for some reason has really high (70%) odds if they win out and take the ACC, much higher than comparable 1-loss teams from the Big 12, a much tougher conference. Did Pitt win a big non-conference game? No, they beat Tennessee, and lost to Western Michigan. They also beat UMass and New Hampshire so it's not their SOS giving them a boost. A 1-loss ACC team should probably be about the same as a 1-loss Big 12 team, but it looks like Pitt's high FPI is giving them an "eye test" dividend. But 70% isn't too high, as that's the rate for ALL 1-loss Power Five teams, so even if you give them zero credit for winning the ACC they're in the right ballpark.

Notre Dame has no conference title game, so if they finish with 1 loss it's all about their schedule, and this year it's turned out to be a bust. Counting them as a 1-loss Power Five team without a conference championship which carries a (small sample) 37.5% success rate, 41% seems about right. Having Cincinnati as their only loss helps, but it means Cincinnati is ahead of them for certain at 13-0.

And Mississippi probably has no conference title game to play (Alabama would have to lose again), so 11-1 is their best finish. 39% seems a bit high at first blush as they're behind Georgia for certain and probably an 11-2 Alabama too, but really they're in the same boat as Notre Dame so 39% probably isn't far off. If they make the SEC title game and win it their odds increase to 85%, which is rather low for a team that would have to beat Georgia, with Alabama as their only loss. How would you keep the SEC champs out of the Playoff under those circumstances? Maybe there's a 1% chance the Committee would find four more deserving teams, but not 15%. The only 1-loss Power Five conference champs that haven't made the Playoff were Baylor in 2014 (a confusing 11-1 with no title game win and TCU declared co-champ) and Ohio State in 2018 (suffered a 49-20 loss to Purdue).

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There you have it. From what we can tell, schedule strength is overvalued by these projections, overriding actual wins and losses. Hence Iowa State's boost from playing Iowa despite not beating them. And it looks like it's using the FPI as the "eye test" which overrates the odds of 12-1 conference champs like Pitt compared to a similar 12-1 Oklahoma State or Baylor, and gives a wholly undeserved edge to a 13-0 Michigan over a 13-0 Michigan State. At 13-0 and winning the Big Ten there are no "style points", you're just in, period.

It's too bad Wake Forest wasn't included (ESPN only includes the 15 teams with the current highest odds per FPI) because I would love to see how poorly a 13-0 Wake Forest does, given their low FPI and weak schedule. Something tells me it would be around 35%. This is roughly consistent with their FPI odds to win out (0.6%) vs. their odds of making the Playoff (0.2%). No 13-0 Power Five conference champ has missed the Playoff, so the number it returns should at the very least be over 50%.

Of course, this doesn't mean Wake Forest will show up prominently in the first Committee rankings. Their schedule and performance puts them below all the other undefeated teams, and probably several (or most) of the 1-loss teams. That will change the more they win.

2021 College Football Playoff committee final standings projection post-week 8: Ohio State moves in

Just when Cincinnati thought it was getting some traction in our projected rankings—bam! Ohio State flips to a 12-1 projection which puts them comfortably in the top four, with the Bearcats on the outside looking in. But let's start at the top.

Oklahoma is still the only Power Five team projected to finish undefeated. And how can you question that? If they haven't lost a game by now, how in the world are they going to manage to do so? The Sooners had yet another close call, beating Kansas 35-23 in a game that was much closer: Oklahoma was down 10-0 at the half and really needed a couple of crazy 4th down plays to win the game. Things only get tougher from here, as the Sooners' remaining schedule includes Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State. Yet they hit 80% odds on our chart. If they do lost one game and win the Big 12, we'll see how much "winning is winning" means when you almost lose every week.

Cincinnati also had a close call, beating Navy 27-20, and fell from #4 to #5 but that wasn't due to their performance, which will probably be forgotten if it's their only close call; instead it was #5 Ohio State's 54-7 throttling of Indiana that convinced our projection that the Buckeyes could run through their very tough remaining schedule and finish 12-1, which would basically guarantee them a spot. They even move ahead of Georgia whose SOS will be inferior when all is said and done. Georgia's odds remain above 50%, meaning there is high confidence in the top four. Alabama is still picked to win the SEC and finish #2; they pulled away from Tennessee on Saturday.

Sportsratings College Football Playoff projected final standings post-week 8 (10/24/2021)

LW   Rnk                      Rec   %Odds   %chg   Chg   Results
 1    1. Oklahoma             13-0   80.0   +1.7   ---   W @Kansas 35-23
 2    2. Alabama              12-1   65.4   -2.5   ---   W  Tennessee 52-24
 5    3. Ohio State           12-1   61.7  +38.8   up 2  W @Indiana 54-7
 3    4. Georgia              12-1   56.0   -8.2   dn 1     dnp
 4    5. Cincinnati           13-0   35.3   -8.6   dn 1  W @Navy 27-20
 9    6. Mississippi          10-2   16.6   +5.0   up 3  W  LSU 31-17
 6    7. Iowa                 10-2   12.9   -4.4   dn 1     dnp
10    8. Oklahoma St          10-2   11.3   +0.3   up 2  L @Iowa State 24-21
11    9. Notre Dame           10-2   10.6   +0.2   up 2  W  USC 31-16
14   10. Wake Forest          10-2   10.0   +1.3   up 4  W @Army 70-56
12   11. Arizona St           11-2    9.3   -0.5   up 1     dnp
16   12. Texas-San Antonio    13-0    6.3   +2.3   up 4  W @Louisiana Tech 45-16 
 7   13. Penn State            9-3    4.5   -9.3   dn 6  L @Illinois 20-18 9OT
 8   14. Clemson              10-3    3.8   -8.3   dn 6  L @Pittsburgh 27-17
--   15. Pittsburgh           10-3    3.1   +3.1   new   W @Clemson 27-17
--   16. Michigan              9-3    2.5   +2.5   new   W @Northwestern 33-7  
17   17. Iowa St               9-4    1.8   -0.4   ---   W  Oklahoma St 24-21
--   18. Wisconsin             9-4    1.5   +1.5   Ret   W @Purdue 30-13
19   19. Texas A&M             9-3    1.4    0.0   up 2  W  South Carolina 44-14
20   20. Brigham Young        10-2    1.3    0.0   ---   W @Washington St 21-19
--   21. Oregon               10-3    1.2   +1.2   Ret   W @UCLA 34-31
13   22. UCLA                  9-3    1.1   -8.1   dn 9  L  Oregon 34-31
18   23. Michigan St           9-3    1.0   -0.7   dn 5     dnp
23   24. Kentucky              9-3    0.9    0.0   dn 1     dnp
--   25. Louisiana-Lafayette  12-1    0.6   +0.6   new   W @Arkansas St 28-27

Dropped Out: #15 Coastal Carolina, #21 Utah, #22 Boston College, #24 Nevada, #25 Houston 

Other shuffling occurs because of Clemson's loss to Pitt and former #7 Penn State's 9xOvertime loss to lowly Illinois. Idle Iowa drops a spot as Penn State was their best win; passing them is Mississippi who jumps from #9 to #6. The Rebels can finish 11-1 and have a chance at making the #4 spot, but it's unlikely. Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State but that was basically assumed to be one of their 2 projected losses; they move up two spots to fill the voice, as does Notre Dame who handled an unimpressive USC squad relatively easily. Idle Arizona State was jumped by Wake Forest probably because UCLA was their top win. Meanwhile the Demon Deacons are one step closer to a 13-0 season that no one is projecting for them; we're probably the only ones that projected them to be 10-2 since the start of the season. What did you just say about broken clocks?

UTSA (the Team Also Known As Texas-San Antonio) is now up to #12 after the loss of Coastal Carolina and the fall of several 2-loss Power Five teams. This is undoubtedly their peak, as the supply of projected 2-loss teams will probably grow, and their 6.3% odds are wishful at best. It would have taken incredible chaos for Coastal Carolina to slip in the top four, and UTSA probably doesn't get the benefit of the doubt from the Committee. We'll see where they're ranked next week. It's probably 50/50 they make it into the first week's rankings.

Penn State falls to #15; they have a shot to come back with their schedule, and would be a strong 2-loss team. But that's a long shot. Clemson has 3 losses now and our projection stubbornly has them still winning the ACC with a rematch win over Pitt on a neutral field; we'll see how much longer that lasts. Pittsburgh enters at #15, finally projecting to fewer than 4 losses. And at long last, Michigan jumps into the ratings at a surprisingly high #16, still thought to finish 9-3 with their killer schedule remaining. Their final games are pretty much like those of Michigan State, who strangely falls from #18 to #23 despite being idle. Whoever wins next week between the Wolverines and Spartans becomes a major player, and will probably debut in the top four in the Committee's first rankings.

Iowa State beat Oklahoma State, but as I mentioned above that was accounted for and the Cyclones don't move from #17. Meanwhile Wisconsin comes back in the rankings, still favored to win the Big Ten West and lose to Ohio State, but with the Buckeyes in the top four that 4th loss will be discounted enough that the Badgers can finish in the top 25. They have a token 1.5% to reach the top 4 with a Big Ten championship but even if they manage that their odds are too high as 10-3 is the best they can do.

Also coming back in at #21 is Oregon, fresh off a hard-fought win over former #13 UCLA. The Ducks are one step closer to a possible 12-1 finish that would put them in limbo between "the Pac-12 is horrible" and "but they beat Ohio State!"

Louisiana-Lafayette comes in at #25. They narrowly edged Arkansas State but they're expected to win out and that would put them in the Sun Belt title game against Appalachian State, who beat Coastal Carolina. That makes for a 12-1 projection that just puts them in the rankings. They push out Coastal Carolina and even Houston, who won but now miss the cut. Other teams that lost and fall out include Utah (lost to Oregon State), Boston College (Louisville), and Nevada (Fresno State).