2024 College Football Playoff Odds / Bowl Odds
post-week 2
Playoff Odds are the result of 10,000 season simulations (using pre-season rankings modified with results so far) with Playoff grading formula applied to each simulated season. Results are then averaged to obtain Playoff Odds and Bowl Odds.
Projected records are given for game-by-game (favorite always wins, or "chalk") and Cumulative (wins are averaged for each run).
Projected Final Committee Top 25
with Playoff Odds and Bowl Odds for all FBS Teams
through games of 9/07/2024
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 4 1. Ohio State *B10 2-0 11-1 10.3- 1.7 72.5 +10.0 99.6 +0.5 6 2. Texas *SEC 2-0 11-1 10.4- 1.6 72.0 +14.3 99.8 +1.8 3 3. Georgia SEC 2-0 11-1 9.9- 2.1 69.7 +3.5 99.4 +0.5 1 4. Oregon B10 2-0 12-0 10.1- 1.9 68.5 -4.3 99.0 0.0 5 5. Alabama SEC 2-0 12-0 9.8- 2.2 64.5 +3.8 98.3 +0.8 8 6. Mississippi SEC 2-0 11-1 9.8- 2.2 54.6 +2.0 98.0 +0.8 7 7. Penn State B10 2-0 11-1 9.7- 2.3 52.9 -4.4 97.9 -0.2 18 8. Tennessee SEC 2-0 9-3 9.3- 2.7 39.3 +19.5 98.6 +11.1 2 9. Notre Dame Ind 1-1 11-1 9.2- 2.8 39.8 -29.7 97.2 -2.2 11 10. Kansas St *B12 2-0 11-1 9.0- 3.0 35.1 +5.7 92.9 +4.5 14 11. Southern Cal B10 2-0 9-3 8.5- 3.5 34.9 +9.5 87.9 +8.0 12 12. Miami FL *ACC 2-0 11-1 9.0- 3.0 30.2 +6.4 93.5 +3.1 10 13. Missouri SEC 2-0 10-2 8.6- 3.4 28.3 +3.4 91.7 +1.1 13 14. Utah B12 2-0 11-1 8.7- 3.3 29.5 +3.4 90.1 +3.8 16 15. Iowa St B12 2-0 11-1 8.9- 3.1 27.8 +3.7 92.7 +5.6 19 16. Boise St *MWC 1-1 11-1 9.1- 2.9 27.5 +7.4 96.2 +3.1 26 17. Clemson ACC 1-1 11-1 8.4- 3.6 22.0 +8.3 89.9 +10.8 17 18. Oklahoma St B12 2-0 10-2 8.5- 3.5 23.6 -1.3 88.7 +3.0 20 19. Louisville ACC 2-0 10-2 8.3- 3.7 24.2 +2.5 87.7 +3.3 9 20. Oklahoma SEC 2-0 8-4 7.5- 4.5 20.2 -11.6 81.2 -7.1 15 21. Michigan B10 1-1 9-3 7.3- 4.7 16.3 -6.6 80.2 -2.3 21 22. Liberty *CUSA 2-0 12-0 9.8- 2.2 16.5 -1.1 97.4 +1.2 41 23. Washington St P12 2-0 9-3 8.8- 3.2 13.6 +6.9 93.6 +15.1 24 24. Memphis *AAc 2-0 10-2 9.5- 2.5 16.9 -0.6 96.7 +4.7 22 25. Texas A&M SEC 1-1 10-2 7.7- 4.3 16.0 -0.7 83.4 0.0
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 23 26. Arizona B12 2-0 8-4 8.0- 4.0 15.8 -1.3 85.0 0.0 42 27. California ACC 2-0 10-2 8.3- 3.7 15.4 +6.3 86.4 +15.2 46 28. Texas St-San Marcos *SUNw 2-0 12-0 9.3- 2.7 13.5 +7.9 94.4 +13.3 33 29. Central Florida B12 2-0 9-3 7.9- 4.1 14.3 +2.3 82.4 +5.4 25 30. TCU B12 2-0 10-2 7.8- 4.2 14.2 -1.4 81.6 +1.6 27 31. North Carolina ACC 2-0 10-2 8.0- 4.0 8.9 -3.0 83.7 -1.3 40 32. Coastal Carolina SUNe 2-0 11-1 8.7- 3.3 10.5 +2.3 89.2 +6.0 68 33. Northern Illinois *MAC 2-0 9-3 8.4- 3.6 6.3 +5.1 89.6 +20.1 29 34. LSU SEC 1-1 7-5 6.6- 5.4 9.5 -1.3 67.8 -3.1 38 35. James Madison SUNe 2-0 10-2 8.5- 3.5 7.8 -0.9 89.3 +0.9 44 36. Oregon St P12 2-0 9-3 7.7- 4.3 7.7 +2.2 82.5 +8.7 39 37. Virginia Tech ACC 1-1 9-3 7.1- 4.9 8.1 -1.1 73.4 -1.2 31 38. Iowa B10 1-1 10-2 7.1- 4.9 6.0 -6.4 75.3 -1.0 52 39. Nebraska B10 2-0 8-4 7.1- 4.9 7.6 +3.0 74.6 +10.9 36 40. Tulane AAc 1-1 10-2 7.7- 4.3 5.7 -4.3 85.4 +0.4 66 41. South Carolina SEC 2-0 5-7 6.7- 5.3 5.5 +3.8 70.2 +25.3 54 42. Indiana B10 2-0 9-3 7.3- 4.7 5.4 +2.3 77.0 +8.2 56 43. Boston College ACC 2-0 7-5 7.0- 5.0 6.1 +2.3 72.2 +6.9 53 44. Syracuse ACC 2-0 5-7 7.2- 4.8 5.0 -0.3 74.9 +8.4 48 45. UNLV MWC 2-0 9-3 7.6- 4.4 7.4 +1.1 80.4 +6.5 28 46. Kansas B12 1-1 9-3 6.7- 5.3 6.0 -8.1 68.5 -8.9 47 47. Rutgers B10 2-0 8-4 6.9- 5.1 5.9 +0.2 70.0 +3.2 64 48. Bowling Green MAC 1-1 10-2 7.5- 4.5 2.9 +1.2 81.2 +10.9 35 49. SMU ACC 2-1 9-3 6.7- 5.3 3.8 -6.5 68.2 -12.4 32 50. Auburn SEC 1-1 5-7 6.2- 5.8 3.0 -6.2 62.9 -12.3 34 51. North Carolina St ACC 1-1 7-5 6.5- 5.5 3.7 -7.4 66.0 -12.4 59 52. Louisiana-Lafayette SUNw 2-0 8-4 7.7- 4.3 4.5 +0.7 80.6 +5.8 45 53. Washington B10 2-0 5-7 6.2- 5.8 5.5 -0.3 58.7 -2.9 30 54. Texas Tech B12 1-1 7-5 6.4- 5.6 3.5 -7.8 65.3 -12.9 62 55. East Carolina AAc 2-0 11-1 7.9- 4.1 2.9 -0.4 84.0 +12.1 61 56. Duke ACC 2-0 5-7 7.0- 5.0 3.1 -0.3 72.2 +10.9 72 57. Illinois B10 2-0 7-5 6.5- 5.5 2.9 +1.3 65.4 +14.0 51 58. Fresno St MWC 1-1 8-4 7.1- 4.9 3.1 -0.9 74.4 +0.1 57 59. Wisconsin B10 2-0 5-7 5.9- 6.1 4.1 -1.0 55.1 -1.0 81 60. Brigham Young B12 2-0 4-8 6.2- 5.8 4.0 +1.9 58.9 +15.3 60 61. Arkansas SEC 1-1 4-8 5.7- 6.3 2.6 -1.5 51.7 +0.6 77 62. Pittsburgh ACC 2-0 5-7 6.3- 5.7 3.2 +1.5 61.0 +14.0 43 63. Maryland B10 1-1 6-6 5.8- 6.2 2.7 -3.8 54.6 -14.9 83 64. San Jose St MWC 2-0 7-5 7.0- 5.0 2.8 +1.3 72.2 +16.4 50 65. Georgia Tech ACC 2-1 5-7 5.7- 6.3 1.2 -2.7 51.7 -7.4 58 66. Toledo MAC 2-0 8-4 7.4- 4.6 2.2 -1.2 76.2 -1.2 67 67. South Florida AAc 1-1 8-4 6.9- 5.1 1.8 -0.2 72.9 +7.0 37 68. Kentucky SEC 1-1 6-6 5.6- 6.4 1.2 -6.7 50.5 -24.2 87 69. Army AAc 2-0 8-4 7.4- 4.6 1.0 +0.3 76.9 +19.5 63 70. UCLA B10 1-0 4-8 5.4- 6.6 3.3 -0.5 45.8 -2.1 96 71. Michigan St B10 2-0 4-8 5.7- 6.3 1.0 +0.6 49.7 +15.7 98 72. Arizona St B12 2-0 3-9 5.5- 6.5 2.1 +1.2 46.6 +14.0 73 73. Miami OH MAC 0-1 7-5 6.3- 5.7 0.8 +0.3 63.8 -0.7 65 74. West Virginia B12 1-1 4-8 5.2- 6.8 2.4 -0.5 43.6 -1.8 71 75. Baylor B12 1-1 4-8 5.6- 6.4 1.7 -1.4 50.5 -0.2 91 76. Virginia ACC 2-0 3-9 5.4- 6.6 1.5 +0.2 44.2 +7.1 55 77. Appalachian St SUNe 1-1 7-5 6.0- 6.0 1.3 -4.6 57.5 -13.0 69 78. Western Kentucky CUSA 1-1 9-3 6.4- 5.6 0.5 -0.3 64.7 -4.3 82 79. North Texas AAc 2-0 5-7 6.5- 5.5 0.8 0.0 64.8 +6.8 49 80. Texas-San Antonio AAc 1-1 8-4 6.2- 5.8 0.2 -3.5 62.3 -16.8 85 81. Sam Houston St CUSA 1-1 7-5 6.4- 5.6 0.5 -0.2 63.8 +2.0 94 82. Ohio U. MAC 1-1 8-4 6.6- 5.4 0.2 +0.1 68.1 +10.0 86 83. Arkansas St SUNw 2-0 8-4 6.3- 5.7 0.4 -0.2 62.7 +3.0 101 84. Georgia Southern SUNe 1-1 5-7 5.9- 6.1 0.4 +0.1 56.4 +12.4 70 85. Wake Forest ACC 1-1 4-8 5.1- 6.9 0.9 -1.5 41.0 -11.8 90 86. Marshall SUNe 1-1 5-7 5.8- 6.2 0.3 -0.3 55.0 +0.8 78 87. Minnesota B10 1-1 2-10 4.8- 7.2 1.1 -0.6 37.1 -2.9 89 88. Western Michigan MAC 0-2 7-5 5.9- 6.1 0.1 -0.1 56.6 -2.6 100 89. Navy AAc 2-0 4-8 6.0- 6.0 0.4 -0.3 56.5 +7.7 95 90. Vanderbilt SEC 2-0 4-8 4.8- 7.2 0.3 0.0 32.7 +2.7 79 91. Florida St ACC 0-2 4-8 4.4- 7.6 0.5 -0.5 30.4 -5.8 93 92. Purdue B10 1-0 2-10 4.4- 7.6 1.1 +0.2 30.2 -3.0 107 93. Eastern Michigan MAC 1-1 7-5 6.2- 5.8 0.1 0.0 60.2 +5.2 80 94. Northwestern B10 1-1 2-10 4.7- 7.3 0.3 -0.8 32.7 -11.0 74 95. Cincinnati B12 1-1 4-8 4.8- 7.2 0.4 -1.4 37.0 -14.1 75 96. Florida Atlantic AAc 0-2 7-5 5.7- 6.3 <0.1 -0.4 54.4 -14.4 109 97. Hawai`i MWC 1-1 4-8 5.4- 6.6 0.3 +0.1 46.5 +2.4 88 98. Mississippi St SEC 1-1 4-8 4.4- 7.6 0.2 -0.4 24.1 -12.7 84 99. Colorado B12 1-1 4-8 4.4- 7.6 0.6 -1.2 30.2 -9.7 124 100. Florida Int'l CUSA 1-1 5-7 5.8- 6.2 0.1 0.0 54.3 +22.9 103 101. Stanford ACC 1-1 2-10 4.2- 7.8 0.4 -0.3 27.7 -2.4 108 102. New Mexico St CUSA 1-1 5-7 5.6- 6.4 0.1 0.0 50.8 -1.1 111 103. Buffalo MAC 1-1 5-7 5.8- 6.2 0.1 0.0 54.2 -0.4 105 104. Colorado St MWC 1-1 4-8 5.4- 6.6 0.2 -0.1 47.0 -0.1 106 105. Troy SUNw 0-2 3-9 4.8- 7.2 <0.1 -0.1 38.6 -7.9 92 106. Utah St MWC 1-1 5-7 5.0- 7.0 0.1 -0.8 40.9 -10.4 104 107. Wyoming MWC 0-2 6-6 4.6- 7.4 0.1 -0.4 35.5 -7.5 112 108. Old Dominion SUNe 0-2 3-9 4.2- 7.8 0.1 -0.2 30.8 -7.3 110 109. Florida SEC 1-1 1-11 3.7- 8.3 0.2 -0.3 18.0 -4.0 118 110. Middle Tennessee St CUSA 1-1 3-9 5.1- 6.9 0.2 +0.1 42.4 -0.6 76 111. Air Force MWC 1-1 4-8 5.0- 7.0 0.1 -1.9 40.9 -21.4 121 112. Louisiana Tech CUSA 1-0 5-7 5.3- 6.7 0.1 0.0 46.2 +4.8 113 113. Jacksonville St CUSA 0-2 7-5 4.8- 7.2 0.0 -0.1 40.4 -7.2 115 114. Tulsa AAc 1-1 2-10 5.0- 7.0 <0.1 -0.1 41.3 -3.0 120 115. Ball St MAC 1-0 2-10 4.9- 7.1 0.1 -0.1 37.9 +3.4 114 116. San Diego St MWC 1-1 5-7 4.6- 7.4 0.1 -0.4 32.8 -8.0 102 117. South Alabama SUNw 0-2 5-7 4.5- 7.5 <0.1 -0.1 31.9 -17.4 116 118. Rice AAc 1-1 4-8 4.9- 7.1 <0.1 -0.1 38.8 -3.6 117 119. Georgia St SUNe 1-1 2-10 4.4- 7.6 0.1 -0.1 31.7 -6.5 123 120. Connecticut Ind 1-1 4-8 5.1- 6.9 0.0 0.0 41.9 +7.6 119 121. Nevada MWC 1-2 4-9 4.8- 8.2 <0.1 -0.1 23.0 -7.9 131 122. Louisiana-Monroe SUNw 2-0 3-9 4.4- 7.6 <0.1 +0.1 26.8 +13.5 97 123. Central Michigan MAC 1-1 2-10 4.2- 7.8 0.0 -0.4 27.8 -26.4 99 124. Alabama-Birmingham AAc 1-1 5-7 4.4- 7.6 0.0 -0.4 28.9 -26.2 126 125. Houston B12 0-2 1-11 2.8- 9.2 <0.1 0.0 10.9 +2.7 125 126. Southern Miss SUNw 1-1 1-11 3.9- 8.1 <0.1 +0.1 23.9 -1.3 122 127. UTEP CUSA 0-2 3-9 3.5- 8.5 0.0 0.0 19.0 -15.3 127 128. Akron MAC 0-2 1-11 3.3- 8.7 0.0 0.0 16.5 -1.8 128 129. New Mexico MWC 0-2 0-12 3.0- 9.0 0.0 0.0 14.2 +0.2 133 130. UNC-Charlotte AAc 0-2 0-12 2.7- 9.3 0.0 0.0 11.1 -0.4 134 131. Massachusetts Ind 0-2 2-10 3.1- 8.9 0.0 0.0 4.9 -3.6 132 132. Kennesaw St CUSA 0-2 0-12 2.7- 9.3 0.0 0.0 11.4 -5.0 129 133. Kent St MAC 0-2 1-11 2.3- 9.7 0.0 0.0 5.6 -9.3 130 134. Temple AAc 0-2 0-12 2.3- 9.7 0.0 0.0 7.5 -6.6