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College Football Playoff Odds

analysis

September 08, 2021

2021 Week 1 Bayesian power rating

Before our regular Strength power rating starts making a modicum of sense (about 3-4 weeks in), we modify our pre-season ratings with a Bayesian modification based on game results. With no further ado, here's the post-week 1 rankings:

Alabama started the season about a field goal ahead of Oklahoma; after Alabama's thrashing of Miami and Oklahoma's near-loss at Tulane that's already grown to more than a touchdown
Iowa was a big mover, up 3 to #4 after their 34-6 win over previous #11 (now #14) Indiana
Georgia was six spots and 6 points behind Clemson to start the year; their 10-3 win wasn't enough to put them in front but it closed the gap to 2 spots and less than 4 points
Ohio State passed Big Ten rival Wisconsin who lost at home to new #15 Penn State 16-10
Arizona State's 41-14 win over Southern Utah was deemed unimpressive and dropped the Aztecs to #8
Toledo was the only of our four(!) MAC teams to rise; they beat Norfolk State 49-10, while #13 Ball State fell 9 spots, #18 Central Michigan fell 5 spots, and #17 Western Michigan fell 10 spots. The latter two lost while Ball State beat Western Illinois just 23-13.

Best upward movers overall were Army, from #92 to #73 after beating Georgia State 43-10; Michigan, #43 to #26 for beating Western Mich 47-14; Marshall #85 to #70 for beating Navy 49-7; and Michigan State #89-#74 for beating Northwestern 38-21.

Worst downward movers include Hawaii (#68 to #89), who underperformed in two games: a 44-10 loss to UCLA and a 49-35 win over Portland State; Tulsa, who fell from #73 to #91 after a 19-17 loss to UC Davis; Washington State (#61 to #80) after a 26-23 loss to Utah State; and San Jose State (#44 to #63), another 1-1 team that underperformed twice, beating Southern Utah 45-14 and losing to USC 30-7.

2021 Week One Bayesian Modification of Pre-season rankings

PRE	W1	Team	W1Rating
1	1	Alabama	35.36
2	2	Oklahoma	27.12
3	3	Clemson	26.82
7	4	Iowa	26.45
9	5	Georgia	23.29
10	6	Ohio State	22.25
6	7	Wisconsin	21.70
4	8	Arizona St	21.48
14	9	Texas A&M	20.89
8	10	Miami FL	20.53
5	11	Iowa St	19.99
12	12	Toledo	19.91
21	13	Cincinnati	19.42
11	14	Indiana	18.18
22	15	Penn State	18.00
20	16	UCLA	17.38
16	17	Mississippi	17.32
24	18	Auburn	16.36
15	19	North Carolina	15.85
30	20	Texas	15.01
19	21	Coastal Carolina	14.46
13	22	Ball St	13.69
18	23	Central Michigan	13.38
25	24	Louisiana-Lafayette	12.87
26	25	Minnesota	12.81
43	26	Michigan	12.47
17	27	Western Michigan	12.47
27	28	Notre Dame	11.68
28	29	TCU	11.67
33	30	Rutgers	11.37
29	31	Eastern Michigan	11.04
23	32	Oklahoma St	11.02
36	33	Florida	9.80
35	34	Maryland	9.51
32	35	Brigham Young	9.31
38	36	Arkansas	9.29
31	37	Miami OH	8.71
49	38	Southern Cal	8.47
34	39	Kent St	8.25
39	40	Buffalo	7.70
45	41	LSU	7.46
51	42	North Carolina St	7.44
37	43	Wake Forest	6.97
52	44	Nevada	5.89
40	45	Utah	5.81
47	46	Boise St	5.74
58	47	Virginia Tech	5.67
54	48	Appalachian St	5.48
42	49	Nebraska	5.47
56	50	Liberty	5.35
48	51	Baylor	5.11
50	52	Pittsburgh	4.20
53	53	Oregon	4.18
57	54	West Virginia	4.03
41	55	Northwestern	3.77
60	56	Wyoming	3.19
46	57	Mississippi St	2.90
59	58	Purdue	2.74
69	59	Tulane	2.65
63	60	Central Florida	2.32
71	61	Missouri	2.21
72	62	Troy	2.10
44	63	San José St	1.94
66	64	Virginia	1.68
62	65	Northern Illinois	1.41
64	66	California	0.89
70	67	Washington	0.68
67	68	Kentucky	0.26
55	69	Boston College	0.15
85	70	Marshall	0.00
76	71	Colorado	-0.02
79	72	Kansas St	-0.28
92	73	Army	-0.66
89	74	Michigan St	-0.95
82	75	Alabama-Birmingham	-1.11
74	76	Illinois	-1.30
87	77	Texas Tech	-1.36
65	78	Ohio U.	-1.74
81	79	Memphis	-1.89
61	80	Washington St	-1.98
78	81	East Carolina	-2.00
83	82	Louisville	-2.01
88	83	Texas-San Antonio	-2.47
84	84	Oregon St	-2.86
86	85	Tennessee	-2.86
90	86	SMU	-3.47
75	87	Houston	-3.51
95	88	Syracuse	-3.92
68	89	Hawai`i	-4.12
91	90	Fresno St	-4.36
73	91	Tulsa	-5.66
97	92	Florida St	-5.73
80	93	San Diego St	-6.26
94	94	Georgia Tech	-6.26
77	95	Georgia St	-6.38
96	96	Rice	-7.85
99	97	Florida Atlantic	-8.35
98	98	Stanford	-9.44
93	99	Air Force	-10.85
101	100	Arkansas St	-11.44
110	101	Middle Tennessee St	-11.95
104	102	South Alabama	-12.27
100	103	Colorado St	-12.48
106	104	South Carolina	-14.26
111	105	Arizona	-15.06
109	106	Texas St-San Marcos	-15.41
102	107	Georgia Southern	-16.17
107	108	New Mexico	-16.87
105	109	UNLV	-17.29
108	110	Southern Miss	-18.62
103	111	Vanderbilt	-18.84
115	112	Louisiana Tech	-19.18
112	113	Florida Int'l	-19.55
118	114	Utah St	-19.96
116	115	North Texas	-21.39
114	116	Akron	-23.59
113	117	South Florida	-23.62
120	118	Western Kentucky	-23.66
117	119	Duke	-24.58
119	120	Navy	-28.02
121	121	Bowling Green	-29.50
122	122	UNC-Charlotte	-30.00
126	123	UTEP	-30.70
123	124	Kansas	-31.69
124	125	Temple	-32.61
125	126	Louisiana-Monroe	-33.35
127	127	Old Dominion	-37.55
128	128	Connecticut	-43.70
129	129	Massachusetts	-46.20
130	130	New Mexico St	-46.76

September 08, 2021 at 07:32 PM in analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)

January 02, 2015

2014-2015 College Football Playoff Championship Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Oregon vs. Ohio State

View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule here

College Football Playoff Championship in Arlington, Texas
Time: Monday, January 12 at 8:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#2 Oregon Ducks (13-1) vs. #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1)

Well here it is: the first Playoff championship. These teams eliminated the #1 seed and the undefeated defending national champ.

Vegas line/spread: Oregon by 6 (over/under 74)

Oregon opened a touchdown favorite, and considering the scores in the semi-final contests (78 total points average between the two games), a high-scoring affair is expected by the oddsmakers. Over the last week the line has tightened and now the Ducks are a 6 point favorite on game day.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Oregon	57%	46%
Ohio State	43%	54%

The game-comparison system uses the Strength power rating to compare the teams' game ratings by pairs, resulting in 196 mock contests (14 games each, cross-compared). Here, the Ducks win the majority (111 of the 196) but the Buckeyes are certainly a live underdog. When the early line is figured in the Buckeyes beat it most of the time.

Following the semi-final games Oregon ranked #2 in the Strength power rating and Ohio State #5.

Strength power rating: #2 Oregon 41, #5 Ohio State 38
Median power rating: Oregon 41-39 Offense-limited power rating: Oregon 41-37

Adjusted scoring rankings
Oregon Offense vs. Ohio State Defense: #1 vs. #25
Ohio State Offense vs. Oregon Defense: #4 vs. #15

The Ducks are just over a 3 point favorite according to Strength. Using their Median game values it tightens a bit (under 2 points) and when big offensive outbursts are limited, Oregon's margin grows to four.

Oregon's opponent-adjusted scoring offense and defense are both better than Ohio State's; the Ducks have the #1 scoring offense, while Ohio State is close behind at #4. On defense both are in the top 25 but not to the level of their opponent's offense. The difference is a bit larger when Oregon's O is facing the Buckeye D.

Yardage analysis: #4 Ohio State 42, #8 Oregon 38
using yards per point: Oregon 35, Ohio State 31

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Oregon total Offense vs. Ohio State total Defense: #2 vs. #18
Ohio State total Offense vs. Oregon total Defense: #5 vs. #45

By yardage the estimate is nearly flipped. Ohio State is slightly better in total adjusted yardage differential and based on this they're expected to surpass 500 total yards while limiting Oregon to just under 500; converted to a score estimate this means a 4 point win for the Buckeyes. Ohio State's advantage is wholly on defense, where Oregon gives up a lot of yards (#45 adjusted); both rank in the top 5 in total offense, just as both rank in the top 5 in scoring offense.

Using a custom yardage-to-points conversion for each team—taking into account how well they turn yards into points, and prevent opponents from doing the same—Oregon becomes the winner, also by four points. This is because, while both teams have bend-but-don't-break defense, Oregon's is particularly good at limiting scoring despite giving up yardage, mainly due to forcing a lot of turnovers. In other words, it won't be anything unexpected if Ohio State outgains Oregon from scrimmage but is behind on the scoreboard.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Oregon 35, Ohio State 31

In total, these teams are nearly of identical quality on special teams according to ESPN's FPI efficiencies breakdown, ranking 33rd and 34th. So the yards-per-point estimate is unmoved when accounting for non-scrimmage play.

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon rushing offense: #14

Ohio State rushing defense: #12

Royce Freeman is this year's feature back with 1,343 yards and 18 touchdowns, while QB Marcus Mariota has 731 net yards and 15 touchdowns. Thomas Tyner has 511 yards and was the leader against FSU with 124.

Ohio State is 35th in raw rushing defense but their Big Ten schedule was full of great rushing teams and the Buckeyes limited them well (example: Wisconsin, not to mention Alabama); when corrected for schedule they have a nearly top ten rushing defense and are up to the task of defending Oregon's ground game. Still, the Ducks should have around 200 yards.

Oregon passing offense: #16

Ohio State passing defense: #38 per att: #11

In the FSU game preview we lauded Hesiman winner Marcus Mariota for his 38:2 ratio. He actually threw a pick against the Seminoles but added a few TDs and now has a 40:3 ratio to go with his 69% completion rate and 4,121 yards. He was 26 of 36 against Florida State for 338 yards. Four Seminoles top 500 receiving yards: Byron Marshall (834), Darren Carrington (704), Devon Allen (684), and Dwayne Standford (578) so there's a lot of targets available. Carrington was the star against FSU with 165 yards while Allen was hurt on the opening kickoff and missed the rest of the game; however, Carrington failed a drug test and won't play against the Buckeyes.

Ohio State's pass defense is #16 in raw figures but, as good as the Big Ten is on the ground the member teams are generally deficient through the air; adjusted, the Buckeyes are #38. The Ducks should have around 280 passing yards, though OSU's per-attempt figures suggest it will take some work to get there.

The Buckeyes have 24 interceptions on the year, so if anyone is going to intercept Mariota it's Ohio State; still, considering he now has 3 in 14 games it's unlikely they'll have more than one, if that. Vonn Bell (6) and Doran Grant (5) are the main threats. In terms of pass rush the Buckeyes are also one of the nation's best, with 43 sacks led by Joey Bosa with 13.5, Darron Lee with 7.5, and Michael Bennett with 7. Mariota has been sacked 29 times, so bringing the heat could be a winning strategy for the Buckeyes.

When Ohio State has the ball

Ohio State rushing offense: #8

Oregon rushing defense: #51

Ezekiel Elliot (1,632 yards, 14 TDs) is Ohio State's top ground weapon, and he proved that against Alabama with 230 yards against the Tide. The #2 weapon, JT Barrett (938 yards, 11 TDs), is of course out for the year but replacement QB Cardale Jones is already the team's #4 rusher with 258 yards and a 5.1 average; he had 43 vs. Alabama. The Ducks give up a lot of yardage on the ground and the Buckeyes should top 250.

Ohio State passing offense: #44

Oregon passing defense: #70 per att: #24

JT Barrett threw for 2,834 yards with 34 touchdowns and 10 picks and finished 5th in voting for the Heisman Trophy. After Barrett's season-ending injury, Cardale Jones is doing a decent job passing for the Buckeye: he is 40 of 69 for the year for 618 yards, 6 TDs, and one interception. Devin Smith (886 yards) and Michael Thomas (746) are the top targets, along with a half-dozen others who are above 100 receiving yards. So while he's not quite as accurate as Barrett, Jones' production is equivalent.

Just as they do on the ground, Oregon's defense gives up a lot of yards though the air and the Buckeyes should have around 250 yards. The Ducks' per-attempt figures are better, though, reflecting the fact that they face a lot of pass-heavy teams (so the per-game figures are inflated). Oregon has just 12 interceptions on the year and so far Jones has protected the ball well.

They do have 36 sacks on the season; Christian French (6.5), Tony Washington (6), and Torrodney Prevot (5) lead the way. Ohio State has allowed 27 sacks, with 23 of those on Barrett and 4 on Cardale Jones, making the big Jones a bit harder to take down of the two when compared to their passing attempts.

Oregon's season (13-1)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (7)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (5)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)

South Dakota 62-13
#8 Michigan St 46-27
Wyoming 48-14
@Washington St 38-31
#10 Arizona 24-31
@#14 UCLA 42-30
Washington 45-20
@California 59-41
Stanford 45-16
@#22 Utah 51-27
Colorado 44-10
@Oregon St 47-19
=#10 Arizona 51-13
=#3 Florida St 59-20

Oregon has 7 wins over bowl-bound teams, and five of those were Committee top 25 teams, including three in the top ten after their win over #3 FSU—who ranks only #24 in Strength.

Oregon had an early peak with the Michigan State win and it seemed to make them complacent; they struggled at Washington State and then lost to Arizona. Sure, the story is they were missing a few lineman or something, but the truth is they weren't taking those teams seriously.

The loss made them serious, and it's what led to their resurgence: they had no more room for error. After the loss they plowed through their schedule and didn't look back, saving the best for last in a revenge beatdown of the same team that beat them earlier in the season and a dominant 59-20 win over last year's national champs. Along the way they won by an average of 27 points including a key 45-16 drubbing of Stanford, their Achilles' heel before Arizona took over that role this year. As good as that win and the Stanford win were, the FSU win topped both of them. It's an encouraging sign that the Ducks are peaking right at the end of the season with their two best games.

Ohio State's season (13-1)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (10)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (4)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)

@Navy 34-17
Virginia Tech 21-35
Kent St 66-0
Cincinnati 50-28
@Maryland 52-24
Rutgers 56-17
@Penn State 31-24 2ot
Illinois 55-14
@#8 Michigan St 49-37
@#25 Minnesota 31-24
Indiana 42-27
Michigan 42-28
=#18 Wisconsin 59-0
=#1 Alabama 42-35

Ohio State's Playoff chances took a hit before the season even began, when Braxton Miller was lost for the year. JT Barrett started with a warm up against Navy, but the Buckeyes lost at home to Virginia Tech, a loss that caused them—and the Big Ten—much derision throughout the season as the Hokies proved to be a very average team. But after racking up bloated wins over middling opponents, Ohio State, the word was, had "improved" since that loss. Then came the Penn State double overtime scare...but let's not talk about that, either. Look how bad they just beat Illinois!

The one real test for the Buckeyes came at Michigan State, and they passed with flying colors, almost beating the Spartans as badly as Oregon already had. After Ohio State had handled Minnesota by 7 points (16 fewer than TCU), they'd completed a string of 7 wins over bowl teams. Still, even with all the excuses and cheering from the media, no one was buying Ohio State as a possible Playoff team, especially after limp showings against Indiana and Michigan.

The Wisconsin game changed everything, though. The team lost Barrett, but even without him they beat the Badgers 59-0 in what was certainly the single most impressive win of the college football season. The Committee pushed out the pesky small-time TCU program with relish as the Buckeyes claimed the #4 spot. And in the Sugar Bowl Ohio State again proved resilient and beat the #1 seed Crimson Tide. Despite much adversity and some really close calls, the Buckeyes are a win away from achieving a goal that no one would have expected from a team starting its third-string QB.

Key Injuries

Clearly the most important injury recently was the one that kept JT Barrett out of the Wisconsin and Alabama games, but at the same time it has made very little difference as Ohio State played two of it's very best offensive games with Cardale Jones at the helm.

Oregon was without corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu against FSU as he is done for the year, but freshman Chris Seisay performed well in his place against the Seminoles. Also backup linebacker Christian French may be suspended for the game. On offense wide receiver Devon Allen (#3 receiver) was hurt early in the FSU game and will probably miss the OSU game, and just days before the game word arrived that #2 receiver Darren Carrington will miss the game due to a failed drug test.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Oregon's season: +1 win; Ohio State's season: +0 wins
Oregon's momentum: +1 win; Ohio State's momentum: +1 win
Oregon won final game: YES; Ohio State won final game: YES
Oregon glad to be here? YES; Ohio State glad to be here: YES
Oregon time zones from home: 2; Ohio State time zones from home: 1;
Oregon coaching situation: unchanged; Ohio State coaching situation: unchanged

A lot of the psychology we normally cover in these reviews is irrelevant here—for example, is there any chance that a team in the national championship is disappointed with their season? Or doesn't want to be here? And with the Playoff format, both teams necessarily have to have won their last game, and in this case both did so in style—Oregon by dominating FSU, and Ohio State just by getting past #1 Alabama.

The site in Arlington is a very neutral site; Oregon is 2,000 miles from home and OSU is 1,000 miles away; Ohio State travels well and more fans will probably make the trip but Oregon also has a large national fanbase. Still, Alabama fans were actually outnumbered in the nearby Sugar Bowl by Buckeye fans, so look for more red in the stands than green and gold. It probably won't be a big factor though.

Final analysis

Both teams are playing their best football lately, Oregon having dispatched Arizona 51-13 and Florida State 59-20, while the Buckeyes demolished Wisconsin 59-0 and topped Alabama 42-35. There's no doubt both are peaking at the right time.

There are a lot of ways to compare these teams based on their seasonal ups and downs. For the full season our Strength power rating makes the Ducks a 3.5 point favorite, but Oregon has been on a roll the last nine games and based on that they look unbeatable, with the 7 point spread looking about right.

If we look just at both teams' great last two games, Ohio State actually looks better by around 4 points. That, of course, is inflated by the outlier Wisconsin game. Look at the teams' last game and Oregon State's win over FSU looks about 17 points better than OSU's Alabama win. But again, that's a small sample, and Ohio State's performance against Alabama beats Oregon's full-season average performance by 5 points.

The yardage breakdowns give some insight as to how Ohio State might win even if they can't replicate their Wisconsin performance. The Buckeye rush defense can slow down Oregon's ground game reasonably well—they proved that against top rushing teams Wisconsin and Alabama—and though their pass defense faces a big challenge, they might slow Mariota, too. They have a lot of interceptions so there is a reasonable chance they can get a rare pick, and their pass rush should give him a lot of trouble. On offense they outclass the Ducks in both rushing and passing and can expect to outgain them overall—they just need to turn those yards into points. They need to score in the red zone and avoid turnovers, two areas where they are average. Oregon is #1 in turnovers gained.

So basically if the ball bounces their way the Buckeyes can hope to win. And even if it doesn't it should be a close game given that they can move the ball, and stop Oregon from moving the ball as much as they normally do—particularly with the Ducks missing 2 of their top 4 receivers. But in the end we expect the game to come down to consistency, something Oregon has a lot of lately and Ohio State doesn't. The Buckeyes have put two great games together back to back, but over the season they've slipped down to average occasionally (Penn State, Indiana). Oregon has been great recently and very consistent over the last three months.

Ohio State wants to win this game but Oregon might want it just a bit more. The Ducks have been on top of the college football world for almost a decade but don't have a national title to show for it. Ohio State has a bunch of titles and won't have that extra edge. And coming back to the consistency angle, we look at the quarterbacks. Marcus Mariota is the epitome of consistency. Cardale Jones has done well the last two games but that's not enough to insure he won't have a few freshman moments that could make a difference.

We still think it will be close due to Ohio State's pressure on Mariota. And if they manage to knock him out of the game a la Alabama vs. Texas in 2009, it could be a very different contest, and probably the only scenario where Ohio State wins by a big margin. Other than that, we see Oregon the probable winner, most likely in a close game, with lower than expected scoring.

Prediction: Oregon 33, Ohio State 31

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.

January 02, 2015 at 11:24 AM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

December 18, 2014

2014-2015 GoDaddy Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Toledo vs. Arkansas State

View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule here

GoDaddy Bowl in Mobile, Alabama
Time: Sunday, January 4 at 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Toledo Rockets (8-4) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5)

A rare Sunday college football game, and the last regular bowl of the season.

Vegas line/spread: Toledo by 3 1/2 (over/under 70)

The Rockets were a 3 point favorite several weeks before the game, and by game day that was largely unchanged. The over/under moved from 67 to 70.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3 Spread
Toledo	45%	39%
Arkansas State	55%	61%

Here's a very rare case (2nd one in the bowl season, I believe) where the Strength power rating disagrees with the oddsmakers. Arkansas State is #70 in Strength while Toledo is just #83; most of the game comparisons go to the Red Wolves, and of course that amount increases when a 3-point spread is considered.

Strength power rating: #70 Arkansas State 36, #83 Toledo 34
Median power rating: Arkansas State 38-31 Offense-limited power rating: Toledo 35-34

Adjusted scoring rankings
Toledo Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense: #63 vs. #108
Arkansas State Offense vs. Toledo Defense: #51 vs. #116

Arkansas State is a 2 point favorite according to the Strength power rating. Using median game scores, that expands to a 7-point lead, but interestingly the offense-limited power rating, which cuts off game scores to create an even balance between offense and defense, favors the Rockets by about 1/2 of a point. We'll look at the charts and game scores below to explain all that.

Both of these teams have terrible defenses and moderately good offense. Arkansas State ranks slightly better in both, hence they are the favorite.

Yardage analysis: #61 Arkansas State 38, #71 Toledo 35
using yards per point: Arkansas State 36, Toledo 33

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Toledo total Offense vs. Arkansas State total Defense: #44 vs. #98
Arkansas State total Offense vs. Toledo total Defense: #32 vs. #94

The Red Wolves are still ahead of the Rockets when it comes to yardage, #61 to #71, so the spread is about the same—three points in this case. And the breakdowns tell the same story: decent offenses, bad defenses. We expect both teams to top 450 yards, with Arkansas State approaching 500 yards of total offense.

Using yards-per-point tendencies of both teams we end up with a very similar estimate, just a bit lower-scoring is all.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Arkansas State 36, Toledo 34

Neither team has very good special effects according to ESPN's FPI; they rank #85 and #97. It does give the Rockets about 1/2 point and pares the margin down to 2 points, so...back where the Strength power rating had it after all.

When Toledo has the ball

Toledo rushing offense: #25

Arkansas State rushing defense: #115

The Rockets are a running team and they have a good one-two punch in Kareem Hunt and Terry Swanson, who together have over 2,000 yards. Hunt has 1,360 of those and 11 TDs, and what's more impressive is that he did that in nine games. Arkansas State's rushing defense is a sieve, and we expect Hunt and company to rack up around 275 yards.

Toledo passing offense: #88

Arkansas State passing defense: #55 per att: #93

Logan Woodside (2,096 yards) isn't going to make people forget Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin from recent years, but he is careful with the ball and has a 19:7 ratio. Corey Jones and Alonzo Russell are the top receivers with over 1,500 yards between them. Arkansas State's D is better here and should hold them under 200 yards most likely.

Further, the Red Wolves have some opportunity for big plays—they have 15 picks and 35 sacks on the year. Toledo responds by not throwing many interceptions, and giving up only 16 sacks all year.

When Arkansas State has the ball

Arkansas State rushing offense: #35

Toledo rushing defense: #51

Michael Gordon is the Wolves' main ball carrier and he has 1,064 yards and 13 touchdowns on the year. QB Fredi Knighten isn't bad either, with 775 yards and 11 scores. Toledo's rush defense is pretty average after correction for schedule (it's #19 in raw figures) and they'll probably yield around 185 yards on the ground.

Arkansas State passing offense: #44

Toledo passing defense: #121 per att: #107

Fredi Knighten is a pretty good passer for a running quarterback. Knighten has 2,874 yards and 19 touchdowns vs. 7 interceptions. Targets Dijon Pascal, Tres Houston, and JD McKissic all have over 500 receiving yards. Toledo's pass defense is atrocious and we expect Knighten to throw for over 300 yards.

Toledo doesn't get many interceptions, and their pass rush isn't particularly strong. But the Red Wolves have allowed 29 sacks this year so they'll give it a shot—they need to try something since their coverage doesn't work well.

Toledo's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (1)

New Hampshire 54-20
#16 Missouri 24-49
@Cincinnati 34-58
Ball St 34-23
Central Mich 42-28
@Western Mich 20-19 ot
@Iowa St 30-37
Massachusetts 42-35
@Kent St 30-20
@Northern Ill 24-27
Bowling Green 27-20
@Eastern Mich 52-16

Toledo's season opening 54-20 win over New Hampshire was actually an incredibly impressive accomplishment that no one heralded at the time. The Wildcats sit at #99 in the All-Division Strength power rating behind UTEP and ahead of Central Michigan after finishing 12-1 this season. They're still alive in the FCS Playoff. In other words, so far Toledo is the only team to beat them, and they won by 34 points. This game is the reason that Toledo's median score is so much lower than its mean—it increases the mean by a fair amount.

The rest of Toledo's year was pretty unimpressive. Losses to Missouri and Cincy rated really low; the next three wins (Ball State and E/W Michigans) constituted their best run; the loss to Iowa State was about the same as beating UMass or Kent State; they played NIU close, beat Bowling Green, and crushed Eastern Michigan, and through it all had the same subdued game ratings. Except for that first game standing out like a beacon.

Arkansas State's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

Montana St 37-10
@Tennessee 19-34
@Miami FL 20-41
Utah St 21-14 ot
UL-Monroe 28-14
@Georgia St 52-10
@UL-Lafayette 40-55
@Idaho 44-28
South Alabama 45-10
Appalachian St 32-37
@Texas St 27-45
New Mexico St 68-35

Arkansas State had a good first six games, then things went a bit rocky. At 4-2, they had beaten Montana State 37-10, Utah State in overtime, and ULM and Georgia State handily. Their losses were to Tennessee and Miami. Nothing wrong with that.

Then they lost to ULL 55-40, the first of three bad losses. The others were to Appalachian State and Texas State, and came back to back. The defense died in all three games and the offense did poorly considering who they were playing. The late wins, especially beating South Alabama 45-10, were pretty good. And they closed with a 68-point crushing of New Mexico State. They don't get full credit for that win under the Offense-Limiting power rating, so it docks their rating a bit in the comparisons in the section at the top. At the same time the offense excelled, the defense gave up 35 to a very poor offense.

So while it appears the offense keep reaching new heights, the defense is tunneling down to new lows.

Key Injuries

Arkansas State is getting D-back Charleston Girley back for the bowl game; he hasn't played since the first month of the season. Toledo starting D-back Jordan Haden has missed the last few games and won't be back for the bowl.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Toledo's season: +1 win; Arkansas State's season: +0 wins
Toledo's momentum: +0 wins; Arkansas State's momentum: -1 win
Toledo won final game: yes; Arkansas State won final game: yes
Toledo glad to be here? sure; Arkansas State glad to be here: why not
Toledo time zones from home: 1; Arkansas State time zones from home: 0;
Toledo coaching situation: no change; Arkansas State coaching situation: no change

Neither team changed their record much, or had much momentum shift during the season. They both won their final game in solid fashion, and both should be okay with the bowl game—especially Arkansas State, as they saw several Sun Belt comrades go without despite qualifying.

You could argue Arkansas State is playing closer to home in the south, but it's not that close and Toledo isn't the entire country away. Perhaps the most shocking thing in this whole review is that there is "no change" in the status of Arkansas State coach Blake Anderson. If he makes it to the bowl game still coaching the Red Wolves he's bucking recent historical precedent.

Final analysis

Instances where the Vegas oddsmakers and the Strength power rating disagree are few and far between come bowl season. Usually they're within a few points, so if one team is favored by a field goal, it might be a 1 point favorite or a 5-point favorite in Strength. If that's not the case, there's usually something going on, like a major player getting suspended. In this case the difference isn't that great—5 points—so it's probably just an outlier rather than the case where Vegas "knows" something (they know everything anyway).

Another interesting thing is Toledo's big first win skewing their rating. If anything, that makes me wonder more about why Toledo is favored. They haven't approached that game's quality since, and it was against an FCS team and therefore probably less reliable as a comparison, especially when it's so out of line with everything else the team did. If that game is removed from Toledo's calculation, it makes Arkansas State around a 4 1/2 point favorite by Strength.

We could also adjust Arkansas State based on their split season. The first half was consistent and higher quality than the fragmented last 6 games. Using the last six, we'd dock almost 4 points from the total...and we'd favor Toledo by 2, by the original estimate...or Arkansas State would be a 1/2 point favorite when we exclude Toledo's outlier game.

We can play a lot of games with the numbers but the matchups on offense and defense say that Toledo is going to run the ball down Arkansas State's throats with lots of success, and the Red Wolves are going to pass all over the Rockets. The last team to score is going to win, we say. We could add even more points since it seems Arkansas State is scoring more and defending even less, but we'll keep the score that matched between points and yardage a predict a Red Wolves win in a shootout.

Prediction: Arkansas State 36, Toledo 34

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December 18, 2014 at 04:33 AM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014-2015 Birmingham Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: East Carolina vs. Florida

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Birmingham Bowl in Birmingham, Alabama
Time: Saturday, January 3 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

East Carolina Pirates (8-4) vs. Florida Gators (6-5)

Florida faces East Carolina without Will Muschamp.

Vegas line/spread: Florida by 7 (over/under 56.5)

The Gators are a one touchdown favorite. The over/under was at 57 early on. In several weeks the line wavered but didn't change by game day.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
East Carolina	25%	38%
Florida	75%	62%

Florida's game performance ratings are better than East Carolina's 3/4 of the time, and even the spread doesn't turn the tide East Carolina's way. The Gators are #19 in Strength while East Carolina is #58.

Strength power rating: #19 Florida 36, #58 East Carolina 23
Median power rating: Florida 38-21 Offense-limited power rating: Florida 35-22

Adjusted scoring rankings
East Carolina Offense vs. Florida Defense: #36 vs. #10
Florida Offense vs. East Carolina Defense: #44 vs. #102

The two teams have roughly even offenses; neither is spectacular in adjusted scoring. But the difference in the defenses is acute. Florida's D ranks in the top ten while ECU's isn't in the top 100. This leaves Florida a 13 point favorite.

Yardage analysis: #29 Florida 31, #33 East Carolina 30
using yards per point: Florida 34, East Carolina 25

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
East Carolina total Offense vs. Florida total Defense: #13 vs. #16
Florida total Offense vs. East Carolina total Defense: #58 vs. #86

Using yardage as a measure instead of points, the game is much, much more even, with both teams just outside the top 25 in yardage differential (adjusted for opponents). We expect well over 400 yards from each team, Florida having the slightest of margins; this converts into a 31-30 win for the Gators. East Carolina's offense is great and pumping out the yardage, but it's not so great at turning those yards into points.

If we use custom conversions for each team based on yards-per-point tendencies, the score margin becomes about 8 points, rounding to a 34-25 score. Not as wide as the score-based Strength power rating sees, but wider than the basic yardage conversion came up with.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Florida 36, East Carolina 23

Florida has a rather large advantage here. We adjust using ESPN's FPI special teams breakdown since total offense and total defense only covers plays from scrimmage. Florida's special teams rank #21 and East Carolina's rank #119—they have awful kick fielding, poor placekicking, and their kick coverage is bad, too. Florida gets over four points for the difference in the units, making their full margin almost 13 points—close to the Strength power rating spread.

When East Carolina has the ball

East Carolina rushing offense: #95

Florida rushing defense: #17

Breon Allen has 869 yards for the Pirates, whose ground game looks weak after correcting for its schedule. Florida's rush defense is strong and should hold the Pirates well under 100 yards—especially since Allen was injured during practice and will miss the game. Chris Hairston (455 yards) is the Pirates' 2nd leading rusher.

East Carolina passing offense: #3

Florida passing defense: #21 per att: #7

This is where ECU does damage: the passing game with Shane Carden at the helm. Carden has 4,309 yards and 28 TDs with just 8 interceptions on the year. Receivers Justin Hardy (1,334 yards), Cam Worthy (886) and Isaiah Jones (766) are his top targets. Florida's pass defense is good but they'll probably give up nearly 350 yards.

Florida's best chance for slowing down Carden's attack is to get interceptions; the Gators have 14 this year. Florida's pass rush isn't bad—they have 26 sacks against good opponents—but ECU protects pretty well, allowing just 14 sacks. Again, that's against mostly poor opposition. Virginia Tech (46 sacks) managed 4 sacks, about their average, and South Carolina (12 sacks all year) had none against the Pirates.

When Florida has the ball

Florida rushing offense: #30

East Carolina rushing defense: #42

Florida's Matt Jones has 817 yards and Kelvin Taylor 565 in a pretty good ground attack. East Carolina's defense is decent but Florida should have almost 200 yards.

Florida passing offense: #102

East Carolina passing defense: #118 per att: #84

Jeff Driskel played most of the first half of the season, throwing for 1,092 yards, 9 TDs, and 10 interceptions. Treon Harris took over for most of the 2nd and had 896 yards, 7 TDs, and 3 picks. Driskel hit 55%, Harris exactly 50% (50 of 100). Not a recipe for greatness, but Harris shows promise—maybe the bowl game will be where he makes his name? Given East Carolina's terrible pass defense, it's a perfect opportunity, and he should have around 240 yards. Demarcus Robinson is the team's leading receiver with 774 yards.

East Carolina has 13 picks on the season, but Harris is much better with the ball than Driskel was. The Pirates have only 19 sacks this year, and Florida's protection is solid allowing just 14 all year.

East Carolina's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

NC Central 52-7
@South Carolina 23-33
@Virginia Tech 28-21
North Carolina 70-41
SMU 45-24
@South Florida 28-17
Connecticut 31-21
@Temple 10-20
@Cincinnati 46-54
Tulane 34-6
@Tulsa 49-32
UCF 30-32

East Carolina started with a decent win over NC Central, then came the first of three Power Five school challenges. They did pretty well but lost to South Carolina. For their 2nd test they got Virginia Tech fresh off their upset of Ohio State, and won on the road. Then they faced North Carolina and laid 70 points on the Tar Heels.

After three more wins the Pirates were ranked by the Committee but their play was weakening. They fell at Temple and Cincinnati, beat two more losing teams, then took on Central Florida at home. They had the game well in hand when a crazy turnaround led to a hail Mary by UCF that worked. It was a heartbreaking loss and summed up what had happened to a promising season. Still, ECU was 2-1 against the Power Five, which is more than most Group of Five teams can say.

Florida's season (6-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

Eastern Mich 65-0
Kentucky 36-30 3ot
@#1 Alabama 21-42
@Tennessee 10-9
#23 LSU 27-30
#16 Missouri 13-42
=#13 Georgia 38-20
@Vanderbilt 34-10
South Carolina 20-23 ot
Eastern Kentucky 52-3
@#3 Florida St 19-24

Will Muschamp's first hit came from the weather, which cancelled a sure-win over Idaho; it almost prevented the Gators from making a bowl game.

Having to carry over their opening-game excitement another week, Florida took it out on Eastern Michigan in a 65-0 win, but next week against Kentucky was much harder and they needed triple overtime to win. That was a pretty sure sign the season wasn't going to be a breeze.

Alabama showed the Gators they were still boss, 42-21. Florida managed to edge Tennessee as Treon Harris stepped in, but he was held out of the LSU game and Jeff Driskel had 4 turnovers and Florida lost on a last-second field goal. As if we needed further evidence Florida was snakebit, Missouri scored on 4 returns—a punt, a kickoff, a fumble, and an interception—en route to a 42-13 rout that was a further nail in Muschamp's coaching coffin.

Somehow, Florida turned it around for one game and crushed Georgia 38-20 behind 418 rushing yards. But two games later a blocked punt allowed South Carolina to force overtime and win; it was the Gators' 3rd loss in a row at The Swamp and Will Muschamp was fired afterwards, but coached the last two games. Beating Eastern Kentucky actually guaranteed the team a bowl game, and they gave it a good shot against Florida State before narrowly losing like everyone else.

Key Injuries

Florida lost two linebackers, starter Neiron Ball and Jarrad Davis, a few games ago and they're gone for the season. Defensive end Brian Cox is also out with a hip injury. East Carolina's Lamar Ivey (D-back, #5 tackler) will miss the game, but they might get receiver Trevon Brown back from mid-season injury.

Update: Both teams have taken a hit in the last few weeks. East Carolina will be missing defensive starters Terry Williams and Domonique Lennon due to suspensions. And on offense, leading rusher Breon Allen won't play either. Florida's top punt returner Andre Debose apparently decided to sit out the game while d-line starter Darius Cummings is suspended. QB Treon Harris was charged for driving without a license but it appears he will play.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

East Carolina's season: -1 win; Florida's season: +2 wins
East Carolina's momentum: -2 wins; Florida's momentum: +0 wins
East Carolina won final game: NO; Florida won final game: no
East Carolina glad to be here? probably; Florida glad to be here: probably
East Carolina time zones from home: 1; Florida time zones from home: 1;
East Carolina coaching situation: no change; Florida coaching situation: coach fired

East Carolina's season started with a lot more promise than it finished with, but they got a bowl game against a high-profile opponent. Florida improved from last year's 4-8 but it wasn't enough to save Will Muschamp's job. Neither team won their final game but ECU had a heartbreak loss.

Neither team will be too excited about the bowl game, either, since both want more. ECU had a shot at something better and frittered it away; Florida expects to be better than 6-5. On the other hand, the Gators missed a bowl game altogether last year so they'll have some level of excitement. Fans can say "wait till next year" but that doesn't always work for players.

Final analysis

Florida is now without Will Muschamp, and when a coach is fired, the question is how do the players respond in the bowl game. Florida hired Jim McElwain from the Colorado State Rams, but the interim coach will be DJ Durkin. Since Muschamp was fired in mid-November, it isn't a shock the players have to deal with, and they're in the hands of their defensive coordinator.

ECU's final loss to Central Florida might carry more weight, but that disappointment will be forgotten, too. We wonder which team will have something to fight for, and something to prove. It's hard to say.

The Pirates killed North Carolina, beat Virginia Tech, and lost to South Carolina. Those teams finished #66, #44, and #39 in Strength. Florida is #19. East Carolina's defense is pretty bad, and Florida's offense suddenly looks okay when they play a team with a bad defense, say, Vanderbilt.

Given the action on Friday (January 2) this could be a blowout either way—and then either team might mount a big comeback—but it seems that the Pirates shouldn't win this game unless they have a clear motivational edge, or if Florida is just tired of it all and wants the season to end. It doesn't appear that either is the case, but who knows. We'll stick with our numbers this time. Recent injuries/suspensions have impacted both teams but probably hit the Pirates worse.

Prediction: Florida 37, East Carolina 22

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December 18, 2014 at 03:01 AM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

December 17, 2014

2014-2015 Cactus Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Washington vs. Oklahoma State

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Cactus Bowl in Tempe, Arizona
Time: Friday, January 2 at 10:15 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Washington Huskies (8-5) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6)

The inaugural Cactus Bowl, need we say more?

Vegas line/spread: Washington by 7 (over/under 57.5)

The Huskies are a fairly hefty favorite to win in Tempe, moving from an early 5 1/2 to 7 by game day. The over/under was up a point to 57.5.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -5.5 Spread
Washington	63%	52%
Oklahoma State	37%	48%

Washington is #37 and Oklahoma State #57 in Strength, and Washington wins most of the game comparisons, even against the moderate spread.

Strength power rating: #37 Washington 29, #57 Oklahoma State 23
Median power rating: Washington 27-26 Offense-limited power rating: Washington 30-23

Adjusted scoring rankings
Washington Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense: #64 vs. #62
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Washington Defense: #52 vs. #26

Washington is a 6-point favorite by Strength. Their offense and Oklahoma's defense are just average for the FBS, but Washington has a decent offense and that puts them over the top against the Cowboys. Interestingly by Median game scores the Huskies are only favored by a point.

Yardage analysis: #60 Washington 21, #66 Oklahoma State 20
using yards per point: Washington 25, Oklahoma State 21

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Washington total Offense vs. Oklahoma State total Defense: #94 vs. #51
Oklahoma State total Offense vs. Washington total Defense: #77 vs. #33

By projected yardage, the game is quite close; we expect both teams to have around 350 total yards of offense, with Washington having about a 10 yard advantage. The estimated score derived from that gives the Huskies a 1 point win. Measured in yards not points, both offenses are much weaker so the total score is considerably lower.

Projecting the score using each team's unique yards-per-point tendencies it's around a 4-point win for Washington.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Washington 25, Oklahoma State 22

Both teams are in the top 25 of ESPN's FPI special teams breakdown. Return man Tyreek Hill has three touchdowns this year, and for Washington kicker Cameron Van Winkle has made 20 of 23 field goals. The Cowboys gain about a point, but it should probably be taken away since Hill has been dismissed from the team.

When Washington has the ball

Washington rushing offense: #55

Oklahoma State rushing defense: #69

Washington used a number of running back, with Dwayne Washington rising to the top at 655 yards just ahead of Lavon Coleman's 565. Against Oklahoma State's mediocre rushing defense they should have about 175 yards.

Washington passing offense: #95

Oklahoma State passing defense: #45 per att: #62

Cyler Miles wasn't very productive (2,129 yards) but he was a good game manager, completing 67% of his attempts for 16 TDs and just 3 interceptions. Jaydon Mickens (535 yards) leads a slew of receivers. Oklahoma State's defense is just average again, and that means around 175 yards, give or take.

It's unlikely interceptions will play a big part here; the Cowboys have just 11 on the year. Oklahoma State has a decent pass rush with 31 sacks and Washington is somewhat vulnerable with 26 allowed.

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Oklahoma State rushing offense: #98

Washington rushing defense: #37

Desmond Roland (647 yards) leads the Cowboys and all-purpose back Tyreek Hill was 2nd with 534. The 'Pokes are not terribly productive and Washington has a sound rush defense; Oklahoma State won't have much over 100 yards in an average game, especially now that they're without Hill.

Oklahoma State passing offense: #45

Washington passing defense: #38 per att: #36

The year began with JW Walsh as expected, but he lasted little more than one game before a foot injury ended his season. Daxx Garman took over and had 2,041 yards, 12 TDs, and 12 interceptions, completing 55%. Not the kind of production they were looking for but injuries happen—and they happened to Garman, too, forcing Mason Rudolph into action for 2 games (554 yards, 4 TD, 3 int); he led them to the Oklahoma State win.

Washington has decent pass defense, too—once you correct for the fact that they've faced scads of the best passing teams in the nation. Before that—in raw numbers—they are #124 in the nation. We expect only around 235 passing yards from Oklahoma State, even though Rudolph might be better than Garman.

Washington has 12 interceptions on the year but more importantly, 49 sacks, #2 in the nation. Hau'oli Kikaha has an insane 18 sacks, Andrew Hudson has 11.5, and Danny Shelton 9. Meanwhile Oklahoma State has allowed 37 sacks, #115 in the nation. This could get ugly.

Washington's season (8-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

@Hawai`i 17-16
Eastern Wash 59-52
Illinois 44-19
Georgia St 45-14
Stanford 13-20
@California 31-7
@#2 Oregon 20-45
#15 Arizona St 10-24
@Colorado 38-23
#14 UCLA 30-44
@#10 Arizona 26-27
Oregon St 37-13
@Washington St 31-13

Washington could hardly have been less impressive in its first four games. They beat Hawaii by a single point, barely won a shootout with FCS Eastern Washington, then beat Illinois and Georgia State. The Illini ended up 6-6 which made the performance reasonably good in retrospect.

Their 1-touchdown loss to Stanford probably did more for their credibility than the first four wins, and the 31-7 win over California was impressive defensively and put them at 5-1. But the Huskies lost 4 of their next five—all against Committee top 25 teams. They finished with wins over Oregon State and Washington State, meaning they beat all the Pac-12's bad teams and lost to all the good ones. Illinois remained the only bowl team they beat.

The only bright spot on their chart is the general upward trend; beating Oregon State and Washington State by a combined 68-26 is pretty decent, too.

Oklahoma State's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

#3 Florida St 31-37
Missouri St 40-23
UTSA 43-13
Texas Tech 45-35
Iowa St 37-20
@Kansas 27-20
@#6 TCU 9-42
West Virginia 10-34
@#11 Kansas St 14-48
Texas 7-28
@#5 Baylor 28-49
@Oklahoma 38-35 ot

Oklahoma State made waves right away with their closer-than-anyone-expected loss to Florida State. From there they won five straight games which would be noteworthy if any of those teams had a winning record. They managed to schedule all of the conference's losing teams in a trio at the beginning of the Big Twelve season, and the other five right after.

So they were pretty much set up for failure and went 1-5 after starting 5-1. And their performance got worse and worse, losing to TCU by 33, West Virginia by 24, Kansas State by 34, and Texas by 21. They scored 28 on Baylor which mde that game less of a stinker, then shocked everyone by beating rival Oklahoma in overtime to get the 6th win needed for bowl eligibility. The Sooners were the only winning team the Cowboys beat this year. Did the last two games reverse their season-long decline?

Key Injuries

Not an injury, but a key blow to the Cowboys' upset bid: Speedster Tyreek Hill has been kicked off the team after a domestic assault arrest. Hill was critical to Oklahoma State's return team, running game (#2 rusher), and passing game (#4 receiver). The Cowboys are on their 3rd-string quarterback, but he's doing a good job so far, at least comparable to 2nd stringer Daxx Garman.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Washington's season: +0 wins; Oklahoma State's season: -4 wins
Washington's momentum: -2 wins; Oklahoma State's momentum: -4 wins
Washington won final game: yes; Oklahoma State won final game: YES
Washington glad to be here? maybe; Oklahoma State glad to be here: maybe
Washington time zones from home: 1; Oklahoma State time zones from home: 1;
Washington coaching situation: no change; Oklahoma State coaching situation: no change

Although Washington basically tied last year's record and Oklahoma State droped four wins, it doesn't seem like the Cowboys did that poorly, or that Washington did as well as last year. For both, there was a long stretch of futility as neither could defeat a winning team in conference play. Finally Oklahoma State got over the hump against Oklahoma..

Final analysis

Amazingly, these teams only beat one bowl-bound opponent each—but didn't lose to any losing teams, either. They are both perfectly mediocre, especially Washington who beat every losing team and lost to every winning team (they beat 6-6 Illinois, too, which doesn't bode well for the Illini's bowl game).

Neither team finished well after a solid start—solid by Win-Loss record, not by quality. But both teams won their rivalry game at the end of the season. Oklahoma State's win over Oklahoma clearly being the more impressive of the two. It was the 2nd game Mason Rudolph started and it was their best of the year by far.

So we were all set to make an upset pick here and take Oklahoma State. Their last two games looked like a fluke on the chart but they corresponded with quarterback play that was actually better than before. And the big win over the Sooners could have sparked them to a bowl win.

But key player Tyreek Hill was dismissed from the team and he's key enough to take the win with him. Minus Hill, the team's field position gets a little worse—or they miss out on a touchdown return like the one that led to the Oklahoma win. Their running game suffers, and they lose a receiving threat. Not only that, but team morale had to take a huge hit with the news.

So now we switch to plan B: a dominant win by Washington. The Huskies, too, played well at the end of the season and that will probably carry through to the bowl game. Their return coverage teams have a lot less to worry about, as does their rush defense. Their pass defense, which ranks #124 in raw terms and thus appears vulnerable, is only #124 due to the teams they've faced, with 6 in the top 30 plus FCS #2 Eastern Washington. Their schedule-corrected pass defense ranking shows it to be perfectly sound, and what's more they have a maddening pass rush. If there's ever going to be a game with double-digit sacks, this is it.

So now we see Washington overwhelming a still shell-shocked Oklahoma State. They still won't have beaten a winning team, since the Cowboys will be 6-7 if the Huskies win—they'll need to root for Illinois in that case (as it turns out Illinois lost, though, so that hope is gone).

Prediction: Washington 34, Oklahoma State 17

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December 17, 2014 at 11:54 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (2)

2014-2015 Alamo Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Kansas State vs. UCLA

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Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, Texas
Time: Friday, January 2 at 6:45 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#11 Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) vs. #14 UCLA Bruins (9-3)

Who says there aren't any good bowl games between January 1st and the College Football Playoff finals?

Vegas line/spread: Pick'em (over/under 61)

Most lines have the game a pick'em, with expected scoring to be fairly high. The early line favored K-State, then it moved to UCLA, and back to a pick'em by game day. The over/under moved from 59.5 to 61.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -0 Spread
Kansas State	64%	64%
UCLA	36%	36%

Kansas State is #14 in our Strength power rating; UCLA is #18. The Wildcats are winners in a surprisingly large percentage of the game comparisons, and there was no early spread to change that.

Strength power rating: #14 Kansas State 32, #18 UCLA 27
Median power rating: Kansas State 34-26 Offense-limited power rating: Kansas State 32-27

Adjusted scoring rankings
Kansas State Offense vs. UCLA Defense: #21 vs. #35
UCLA Offense vs. Kansas State Defense: #20 vs. #11

Kansas State is a 5-point favorite by Strength. The teams have almost exactly even adjusted scoring ratings, but Kansas State's defense is far better than UCLA's. This means K-State has the advantage no matter whose offense takes the field.

Yardage analysis: #15 Kansas State 30, #19 UCLA 28
using yards per point: Kansas State 29, UCLA 24

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Kansas State total Offense vs. UCLA total Defense: #38 vs. #41
UCLA total Offense vs. Kansas State total Defense: #15 vs. #13

By yardage differential the teams keep the same relative rating but the game might be closer. Both teams should top 400 yards but Kansas State by more than the Bruins, and that leads to a 30-28 projection. This time, as you see, the offense vs. defense matchups are closer, almost a tie in each case.

Since K-State scores a bit more from a given yardage than UCLA, and their defense allows less, the team-specific yards-to-points conversion expands back out to a 5-point lead for the Wildcats.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Kansas State 31, UCLA 24

Both squads have good special teams, but K-State's are among the best at #8 in the nation according to ESPN's FPI. A big reason is receiver Tyler Lockett who is the nation's leading punt returner (w/2 TDs) and placekicker Matthew McCrane who has connected on 16 of 17 field goal attempts. Kansas State gets a few more points and makes it a full touchdown margin.

When Kansas State has the ball

Kansas State rushing offense: #102

UCLA rushing defense: #55

Kansas State's ground game ground to a halt this year, as we predicted in our pre-season review of the team. It wasn't hard to foresee given the losses at running back and quarterback. This year Charles Jones leads with 521 yards and QB Jake Waters is #2 with 471. UCLA's rush defense is average but Kansas State shouldn't have much more than 120 yards.

Kansas State passing offense: #10

UCLA passing defense: #48 per att: #20

Just like that, Kansas State became a major passing team. Jake Waters is having a very good season, with 3,162 passing yards, 20 TDs, and 6 interceptions. A big reason for his success is Tyler Lockett who has 1,351 receiving yards, and Curry Sexton (955 yards) is another reason. UCLA isn't awful against the pass on a per-play basis but they give up scads of yards—#90 in raw figures—to the pass-happy teams they face. That corrects to #48. At the least, they have a lot of experience facing teams like this but the results haven't always been good. The Wildcats should have around 300 yards.

UCLA doesn't offer much to stem the tide, either. They have just 10 interceptions and 22 sacks, which, considering the teams they faced all season, isn't much.

When UCLA has the ball

UCLA rushing offense: #26

Kansas State rushing defense: #16

Paul Perkins (1,378 yards, 7 TDs) leads UCLA's running game and QB Brett Hundley follows with 548 net (8 TDs). Kansas State stops the run pretty effectively but the Bruins should have around 160 yards.

UCLA passing offense: #26

Kansas State passing defense: #15 per att: #19

It's a valid question whether Brett Hundley has lived up to the hype. Though his freshman year was more productive, this year is his best, with 3,019 yards, a 70% completion rate, and a 21:5 touchdown:interception ratio. But it's not the Heisman-level performances many expected. Jordan Payton is UCLA's leading receiver with 896 yards and 7 touchdowns. K-State's defense, as usual, is equally effective against the run and the pass, and Hundley should have upwards of 250 yards.

Kansas State has 15 interceptions on the year, but it's the pass rush that might disrupt Hundley the most. The Wildcats have only 24 sacks on the year but UCLA has allowed 38, passing last year's 36. QB protection has been a problem for years.

Kansas State's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

S.F. Austin 55-16
@Iowa St 32-28
#19 Auburn 14-20
UTEP 58-28
Texas Tech 45-13
@Oklahoma 31-30
Texas 23-0
Oklahoma St 48-14
@#6 TCU 20-41
@West Virginia 26-20
Kansas 51-13
@#5 Baylor 27-38

Kansas State's worst game was probably their near-loss to Iowa State in game two, and after that they haven't really played a bad one.

They lost to Auburn at home but by a mere touchdown, and following that they rattled off five impressive wins: UTEP by 30, Texas Tech by 32, Oklahoma on the road, Texas in a shutout, and Oklahoma State 48-14. They were peaking just as TCU came to town and, unfortunately the Horned Frogs were peaking, too. They won two more games before having to travel to Baylor and they fell to the Bears by 11 points.

UCLA's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

@Virginia 28-20
Memphis 42-35
@Texas 20-17
@#15 Arizona St 62-27
#22 Utah 28-30
#2 Oregon 30-42
@California 36-34
@Colorado 40-37 2ot
#10 Arizona 17-7
@Washington 44-30
#24 USC 38-20
Stanford 10-31

UCLA started the season on a bum note and just kept getting worse—with a few notable interruptions.

The highly-touted Bruins beat Virginia 28-20 in a disappointing start, but it would be their high-water mark for a few more games. They escaped with a 7-point home win over Memphis then beat Texas by just a field goal.

Then they exploded for 62 points against Arizona State. Any illusion that they had righted the ship disappeared in the next four awful games which included home losses to Utah and Oregon and a double overtime win over lowly Colorado. Oregon led 42-10 and UCLA came back late, otherwise that would be their low-water mark.

At this point it looked hopeless for Bruins with four tough opponents looming, but they played three more great games beating Arizona, Washington, and USC. And then, just when it looked like they'd figured it out, they once again played their worst game of the season at home against Stanford. In the end they'd somehow defeated three top 25 teams. But on both offense and defense it looks like the team got worse, not better, interrupted by the occasional great game.

Key Injuries

K-State has been without defensive lineman Travis Britz for 2 games, and he may miss the game with an ankle injury. Also, starting safety Dylan Schellenberg was lost in the Baylor final with a broken leg.

UCLA doesn't have any new significant injuries; at one point QB Hundley was questionable with a finger injury but he's been upgraded and is set to play.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Kansas State's season: +2 wins; UCLA's season: +0 wins
Kansas State's momentum: -1 win; UCLA's momentum: +1 win
Kansas State won final game: no; UCLA won final game: NO
Kansas State glad to be here? yes; UCLA glad to be here: yes
Kansas State time zones from home: 0; UCLA time zones from home: 1;
Kansas State coaching situation: stable; UCLA coaching situation: stable

Kansas State improved from last year while UCLA repeated at 9-3. It seems odd that K-State did better in the first half of the year, and UCLA in the 2nd, but that's the fact by their records. Both teams lost their last game but UCLA fell on its face. And both teams were hoping for better things before that last loss, but the Alamo Bowl is a good destination and they're facing a top foe.

Final analysis

Kansas State is a very consistent team. They played some of their worst games against the best team—the three top 25 teams they lost to. But that level of play is still better than UCLA's average game.

But what is UCLA's average game? They have 4 outlier games among all the rest. So there's a 1 in 3 chance they play like gangbusters and a 2 in 3 chance that they basically fold, because it will take one of their best performances to beat Kansas State.

The magnitude of the Stanford loss is perplexing. It's possible the team was struck with overconfidence from the beginning of the season and never thought they had to work hard; when they finally did, they put together some great games, but the overconfidence came back before Stanford. The other thought is more frightening for UCLA fans—maybe subconsciously they just didn't want to have to play Oregon again?

So for UCLA it's either a powerful performance or another one with diminishing returns—either a big win or a big loss. It looks to us like the Bruins's frustrating season will end in another disappointment.

Prediction: Kansas State 34, UCLA 23

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December 17, 2014 at 08:58 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014-2015 TaxSlayer Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Iowa vs. Tennessee

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TaxSlayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Florida
Time: Friday, January 2 at 3:20 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (6-6)

Just when we started to reclaim some of the old bowl names, like the Peach and Citrus, we lose the Gator bowl to TaxSlayer.

Vegas line/spread: Tennessee by 3 1/2 (over/under 52)

Tennessee is favored as the oddsmakers project a lower-scoring game. The line didn't really change from the open and the over/under went up just a point.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3.5 Spread
Iowa	36%	43%
Tennessee	64%	57%

Tennessee's game ratings are pretty high; they play in the SEC and were competitive, and that will give you some good scores. In fact, Tennessee is #24 in Strength, meaning they're a top 25 quality team that finished 6-6 due to a killer schedule. Iowa is 46th, and they lose the majority even against the spread.

Strength power rating: #24 Tennessee 27, #46 Iowa 19
Median power rating: Tennessee 24-23 Offense-limited power rating: Tennessee 27-20

Adjusted scoring rankings
Iowa Offense vs. Tennessee Defense: #68 vs. #16
Tennessee Offense vs. Iowa Defense: #39 vs. #36

Tennessee is about an 8 point favorite by our power rating. The difference is the matchup of Iowa's poor offense and Tennessee's strong defense. When Tennessee has the ball, Iowa's defense is their equal.

Interestingly the median score favors Tennesse by just a point. Looking at their game charts, Tennessee has several good games that raise its average, and those are discarded by the median measure. Iowa gets a huge dud game thrown out by this measure, too.

Yardage analysis: #37 Tennessee 20, #39 Iowa 20
using yards per point: Tennessee 25, Iowa 21

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Iowa total Offense vs. Tennessee total Defense: #72 vs. #27
Tennessee total Offense vs. Iowa total Defense: #49 vs. #21

When ranked by yardage these teams are almost even, and we expect them to both gain around 335 yards. The score projection from that is a 20-20 tie. Give it to Tennessee in overtime since they might outgain Iowa by about 5 yards.

What changed since the score-margin-based estimate? Well, Tennessee's offense doesn't gain many yards and Iowa can slow them down based on these numbers. If we use the same yardage projection but convert based on each team's yards-per-point, we get a 4-point Tennessee win.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Tennessee 27, Iowa 19

Tennessee has great special teams, ranking in the top ten in ESPN's FPI breakdown. Iowa is #96. That's a big swing: almost four points. When we add that to the yards/point estimate, we are back to an 8-point win for the Vols.

When Iowa has the ball

Iowa rushing offense: #78

Tennessee rushing defense: #38

Mark Weisman bulled his way to another 802 yards this year and 14 touchdowns, but even having Outland Trophy winner Brandon Scherff on the line didn't make Iowa a good running team. Tennessee has faced a lot of very good running teams and appears to be able to slow down Iowa, holding them to probably around 125 yards.

Iowa passing offense: #57

Tennessee passing defense: #23 per att: #33

Jake Rudock's 2nd year as starter has been better than his first, even if it didn't always seem that way. He has similar yardage (2,404) and a couple fewer TDs (16), but only has 5 picks this year compared to 13 last season. He's been pressed by CJ Beathard (500 yards, 3:1) who provides a good backup. Tevaun Smith leads receivers with 559 yards but 8 receivers topped 100 yards.

Tennessee has very good pass defense and Iowa might have a bit over 200 yards. The Vols are also adept at intercepting the ball (15 this season) and sacks (35). In the latter department they are led by the fearsome twosome of Curt Maggitt and Derek Barnett, who combine for 21. The Hawks have allowed 22 sacks this year.

When Tennessee has the ball

Tennessee rushing offense: #70

Iowa rushing defense: #33

Jalen Hurd leads the Volunteers with 777 yards on the ground, with new quarterback Joshua Dobbs #2 with 393 in just five games. So Tennessee's rushing offense rating is probably a bit low, but still Iowa's defense should contain them pretty well, to the tune of around 125 yards.

Tennessee passing offense: #46

Iowa passing defense: #14 per att: #31

Justin Worley started for the Vols through the Ole Miss game, throwing for 1,579 yards, 12 TDs, and 8 interceptions. When he was injured Joshua Dobbs stepped in and has 1,077 yards and an 8:5 ratio. The team didn't seem to lose much in the transition—in fact, the offense as a whole has performed better since the switch. Tennessee has 10 players with 100+ receiving yards, led by Pig Howard's 589. But the #2, #4, and #8 on that list are out with injuries.

Iowa's pass defense is very effective and should hold Tennessee to not too much over 200 yards. Iowa has 12 picks on the year and only 25 sacks, but they don't need a big pass rush to rattle the Vols, who have allowed 42 sacks this year. Worley's sack rate (29 vs. 252 att) was a lot higher, though, than Dobbs' (11 vs. 156).

Iowa's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

Northern Iowa 31-23
Ball St 17-13
Iowa St 17-20
@Pittsburgh 24-20
@Purdue 24-10
Indiana 45-29
@Maryland 31-38
Northwestern 48-7
@#25 Minnesota 14-51
@Illinois 30-14
#18 Wisconsin 24-26
Nebraska 34-37 ot

Iowa played two dismal early season games, beating Ball State 17-13 in a comeback win at home, then losing at home to Iowa State 20-17. Needless to say the offense wasn't working well at this time.

Things picked up a bit for the next three wins over Pitt, Purdue, and Indiana, and they scored 31 in the loss at Maryland. But the Northwestern game looked like a breakthrough: 48 points on offense and a stifling defensive performance. At 6-2 things looked bright and they controlled their destiny in the Big Ten West.

Then came the Minnesota game, the bizarro world version of the game they'd just played, as the Gophers destroyed them 51-14. After that Iowa played three bowl teams; they beat Illinois 30-14 and gave both Wisconsin and Nebraska all they could handle before losing to both to end 7-5.

Tennessee's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

Utah St 38-7
Arkansas St 34-19
@Oklahoma 10-34
@#13 Georgia 32-35
Florida 9-10
Chattanooga 45-10
@#9 Mississippi 3-34
#1 Alabama 20-34
@South Carolina 45-42 ot
Kentucky 50-16
#16 Missouri 21-29
@Vanderbilt 24-17

Tennessee started with a couple of underrated wins, beating 9-4 Utah State 38-7 and handling Arkansas State by 15. They ran into a full-strength Oklahoma team and were trounced, but played a lot better against Georgia on the road, falling just 3 points short. The Florida loss was even closer, 10-9.

After a break against Chattanooga it was back to losing, 34-3 to Ole Miss and 34-20 to Alabama, the latter with QB Dobbs after Worley was hurt against Mississippi. Now 3-5, a week later they finally got an SEC win over South Carolina in overtime, then blasted Kentucky 50-16. They fell to Missouri but beat Vandy—barely—to reach bowl eligibility. They won three of four to make it to a bowl game but one has to wonder how much they really wanted it given their performance against a sorry 3-9 Vanderbilt.

Key Injuries

Tennessee's #1 tackler, AJ Johnson, has missed the last two games and will probably miss the bowl game along with D-back Michael Williams stemming from a rape investigation. Tennessee will also be without receiver Jason Croom, the team's #4 in yardage. Jalen Hurd was questionable but has been upgraded to probable.

For Iowa, defensive lineman Louis Trinca-Paset (11.5 tackles for loss) was listed as questionable but appears to be available.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Iowa's season: -1 win; Tennessee's season: +1 win
Iowa's momentum: -3 wins; Tennessee's momentum: +0 wins
Iowa won final game: no; Tennessee won final game: yes
Iowa glad to be here? no; Tennessee glad to be here: probably
Iowa time zones from home: 1; Tennessee time zones from home: 0;
Iowa coaching situation: stable; Tennessee coaching situation: stable

With Iowa's easy schedule they were looking for better than a 7-5 season, down a notch from last year. And while Tennessee has been waiting for something other than 5-7 since 2010, 6-6 isn't that much to crow about. Iowa hoped for much better than this bowl game, and normally Tennessee would, too, but they haven't been to the postseason in so long they have to take what they can get.

Iowa was 5-1 early on and 2-4 to close. Tennessee went 3-3 in each frame but won three of their last four while Iowa lost 3 of 4 at the end. The Volunteers theoretically have something to play for: the team's first winning season since 2009. The last time they went to a bowl they were 6-6 and lost, and they've been 5-7 ever since.

Final analysis

Tennessee won three of its last four and Iowa lost three of its last four, but at least in its last two games, Iowa performed better in losing than Tennessee did in beating Vanderbilt. If both teams play the way they did in their last game, Iowa will win by double digits.

In general both teams are up and down from week to week. Iowa showed that the most plainly with the Northwestern and Minnesota games back-to-back. What the Hawks do next is anyone's guess. But Tennessee, too, has had its share of strong games, like Kentucky, and weak ones like Vanderbilt (both were wins).

We might be able to excuse Tennessee's weak performance against Vanderbilt as a strong performance by the Commodores. It's a rivalry game in a rivalry Tennessee utterly dominated for decades. Recently Vandy has started to win it occasionally, and it's likely that the Commodores, at 3-8, treated the Tennessee game as their bowl game. Their raised their level of play at home to keep the Vols from dominating, and as a result, Tennessee looked bad. The other explanation for their poor performance in the last two games, on defense at least, is the absence of top tackler AJ Johnson. It's very unlikely he'll be reinstated for the bowl game.

Our yardage projection not only settles on almost exactly the same total yardage for both teams, but bascially the same rushing and passing figures for both. The median game score favors Tennessee by just a point. But in none of our projections does Iowa actually win. They haven't beaten a team better than #63 Northwestern, and Tennessee hasn't lost to a team worse than #21 Missouri. Iowa played teams close in their last few games, but Tennessee has been winning, and they have a better reason to be "up" for the game, their first bowl in years.

Prediction: Tennessee 24, Iowa 23

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December 17, 2014 at 06:35 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014-2015 Armed Forces Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Houston vs. Pittsburgh

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Armed Forces Bowl in Ft. Worth, Texas
Time: Friday, January 2 at Noon ET
TV: ESPN

Houston Cougars (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6)

The first New Year's Day hangover bowl is the Armed Forces Bowl on January 2nd, featuring two teams who barely got here, and both lost their coaches along the way.

Vegas line/spread: Pittsburgh by 6 (over/under 54.5)

Pitt was a slight early favorite to beat the Cougars, but the consensus has grown from 3 points to 6 points on game day. The over/under increased slightly.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3 Spread
Houston	37%	44%
Pittsburgh	63%	56%

Pitt is our favorite by the Strength power rating, too, winning most of the game comparisons even by the spread. Note also that we're granting Houston partial home field advantage for playing in-state, so Pitt is overcoming even that.

Strength power rating: #47 Pittsburgh 31, #76 Houston 25
Median power rating: Pittsburgh 30-25 Offense-limited power rating: Pittsburgh 30-24

Adjusted scoring rankings
Houston Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense: #104 vs. #55
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Houston Defense: #41 vs. #54

Whatever happened to Houston's offense between last year and this year? With most of the unit back they went from #43 in adjusted scoring to #104. The two defenses are about the same, but Pitt has a reasonable #41 offense and is a 5 to 6 point favorite by the Strength power rating after docking a bit for home field.

Yardage analysis: #32 Pittsburgh 34, #79 Houston 23
using yards per point: Pittsburgh 31, Houston 25

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Houston total Offense vs. Pittsburgh total Defense: #96 vs. #49
Pittsburgh total Offense vs. Houston total Defense: #29 vs. #58

We expect Pitt to have nearly 450 yards of total offense and Houston to stop around 350; that converts to a 34-23 Pitt win. Converting differently, using each team's yards-per-point tendencies, and we get a replay of the Strength estimate. Both team are very average on offense and defense when it comes to converting yards to points.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Pittsburgh 30, Houston 25

Neither team has stellar special teams, but Pitt is pretty bad according to ESPN's FPI. We dock the margin almost one point and it ends up almost exactly 5 points.

When Houston has the ball

Houston rushing offense: #84

Pittsburgh rushing defense: #54

Kenneth Farrow leads the team with 934 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Ryan Jackson and QB Greg Ward Jr add another 1,000+. But the Cougars aren't a strong rushing team; they rank 49th in raw yardage but their schedule was very easy. Pitt's rushing defense isn't great but should hold them to less than 150 yards.

Houston passing offense: #73

Pittsburgh passing defense: #66 per att: #71

John O'Korn had a great freshman season but the mother of all sophomore slumps. After five games, 951 yards, 6 TDs and 8 interceptions the job went to Greg Ward Jr, who completed 68% (to O'Korn's 52%), had 1,736 yards, and a 9:7 ratio. More importantly, he added the running threat. Deontay Greenberry is the top receiver with 756 yards, well down from last year's 1,202. Pitt's pass defense isn't very good and the Cougars should have at least 220 yards.

220 yards looks like a minimum for a number of reasons. One, Ward has been more effective than O'Korn. And two, Pitt doesn't intercept many passes and has only 16 sacks on the season. That helps mitigate a big problem for Houston, in that they've given up 31 sacks this year (20 on Ward).

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Pittsburgh rushing offense: #13

Houston rushing defense: #82

Pitt has a good ground game led by big James Connor, who has 1,675 yards and 24 touchdowns this year. He's not their only weapon on the ground, but he's their biggest (250 lbs) and best. Houston looks reasonable at #31 in raw rush defense, but their schedule has featured very poor rushing teams and that converts to #82 when adjusted for schedule. Pitt should have around 270 rushing yards.

Pittsburgh passing offense: #86

Houston passing defense: #31 per att: #63

The Panthers don't throw the ball very productively, but at least Chad Voytik takes care of it. He has just a bit over 2,000 passing yards and a 15:7 ratio. Tyler Boyd is the go-to target with 1,149 yards, and he has more catches than the next five combined. Houston has a decent pass defense and Boyd is the only one they really have to cover, so look for Pitt to hobble to 175 yards, tops.

Houston has 19 picks this year, led by Adrian McDonald with 5. Their pass rush isn't great but they probably won't need much to slow down Pitt's passing game.

Houston's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (2)

UTSA 7-27
Grambling St 47-0
@BYU 25-33
UNLV 47-14
Central Florida 12-17
@Memphis 28-24
Temple 31-10
@South Florida 27-3
Tulane 24-31
Tulsa 38-28
@SMU 35-9
@Cincinnati 31-38

Houston started 2014 the way they started 2012—with a bruising loss to a heavy underdog. The 27-7 loss to Texas-San Antonio was very similar to the 30-13 loss to Texas State two years ago.

There was still hope; no one knew UTSA was going to finish 4-8, so maybe they were a good team. Houston blanked Grambling and wiped out UNLV, and lost to 8-4 BYU and 9-3 UCF. But the next three games made it look like they were turning the corner with a new quarterback at the helm. First, the Cougars beat Memphis, who finished 9-3. They throttled Temple and nearly shut out USF. Just like that they were on the winning side and playing well, particularly on defense.

But the Tulane loss brought them back down to earth. From there, the team struggled to a win over hapless Tulsa and beat winless SMU. They gave Cincy a run for the money but lost to finish 7-5 with only two wins over bowl teams. It was enough, considering expecations, to get head coach Tony Levine fired.

Pittsburgh's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (2)

Delaware 62-0
@Boston College 30-20
@Florida Int'l 42-25
Iowa 20-24
Akron 10-21
@Virginia 19-24
Virginia Tech 21-16
#12 Georgia Tech 28-56
Duke 48-51 2ot
@North Carolina 35-40
Syracuse 30-7
@Miami FL 35-23

Pittsburgh started with a bang and fizzled fast. FCS team Delaware isn't the best, but 62-0 is 62-0, and beating Boston College was fairly impressive this year. Pitt struggled a bit at FIU, then came home and lost to Iowa. Losing to Iowa at home is one thing, but losing to Akron at home is another. In all, during a 7-game stretch, Pitt lost six games, pausing only to beat Virginia Tech.

But remarkably, they came out of it and had two of their best games of the year. They needed to beat both Syracuse and Miami to become bowl-eligible; they trounced the Orange 30-7, then beat the Hurricanes on the roac, 35-23. Of course, just when they were getting a little big of momentum, word started coming out of Wisconsin that Paul Chryst would be their next head coach, and sure enough, he was hired just this morning.

Key Injuries

Pitt hasn't lost anyone recently, and their prior losses didn't prevent them from having two of their best games at the end of the season. There's nothing new for Houston, either, as of this writing.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Houston's season: -1 win; Pittsburgh's season: +0 wins
Houston's momentum: +1 win; Pittsburgh's momentum: +0 wins
Houston won final game: no; Pittsburgh won final game: YES
Houston glad to be here? probably; Pittsburgh glad to be here: probably
Houston time zones from home: 0; Pittsburgh time zones from home: 2;
Houston coaching situation: coach fired; Pittsburgh coaching situation: coach left

Houston only dropped one win from last year's 8-4, but it feels like a mountain. Probably because last year's 8-4 was such an improvement from 5-7 the year before. Pitt was 6-6 for a third straight year. The Panthers needed two wins to reach bowl eligibility, so they're probably happy they made it anywhere. Houston is probably okay with playing so close to home, too. So, no major disappointment at being in the Armed Forces Bowl, but no great enthusiasm either. Both programs strive for bigger things.

The biggest question is, which team will respond better to losing their coach? There was a difference: Houston fired Tony Levine, while Paul Chryst left for Wisconsin. Pitt is no stranger to coaching changes and played with an interim coach in 2010 and 2011: they beat Kentucky 27-10 and lost to SMU 28-6. Houston already had their new coach (Levine) during the last transition and beat Penn State in the Ticket City Bowl 30-14.

Houston hired Ohio State offensive coordinator Tom Herman as the new coach, but defensive coordinated David Gibbs will coach them in the bowl game. Pitt hasn't hired a new coach but they've probably been looking as Chryst's departure was no big secret for a couple of weeks. No word as of now on who the interim coach will be. Update: Pitt hired Pat Narduzzi from Michigan State while offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph will lead the team in the bowl.

Final analysis

Pitt's main offensive weapon is James Conner, a 250 lb. running back. He had back-to-back 200 yard games in losses to Duke and North Carolina, then struggled in wins over Syracuse and Miami. Basically, he does well against poor rush defenses and not very well against good ones. Houston's rushing defense is revealed to be bad when corrected for their opponents, and Conner should have a big day—particularly since the Panthers probably won't have much luck through the air.

Houston's passing game could have a lot of success, too. Pitt's pass defense is weak and so is their pass rush. Houston doesn't protect the quarterback well so they don't want to face a strong pass rush. QB Greg Ward is playing much better than John O'Korn and should pass the ball well. He adds a running element but we don't expect as much ground game out of the team against Pitt as they did against the weak teams they faced down the stretch (Tulsa, SMU, and Cincinnati have terrible rush defenses).

We're going to call the coaching situation even. It's too hard to sort out what a team will do. Sometimes they feel betrayed by a coach that leaves, sometimes they're relieved that a coach is gone, sometimes the coach is retiring and they want to win one more for him. Of course it's better to still have your coach there with the team. But when both teams lose their coach, it's probably best to ignore the ramifications unless word comes out that the players are particularly disgruntled by the firing or the abandonment.

That leaves us with the game at hand. Pitt has the advantage according to all our power rating analysis, and they're the favorite, too. On top of that, they showed some grit in winning their last two games to reach bowl eligibility. That took some resolve, and it showed that they really wanted to play in a bowl game. If that's the case, then that resolve should carry over to the bowl game itself.

And the coaching situation shouldn't affect that. If the players didn't want the game for themselves they wouldn't have performed well. The team wanted it, and the team is still intact. We expect Pitt to play the same way they played the last few games of the season, and Houston will probably play the way they played the last few games of the season, too.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 38, Houston 17

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December 17, 2014 at 03:15 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014-2015 Sugar Bowl (College Football Playoff) Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Alabama vs. Ohio State

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Sugar Bowl in New Orleans
Time: Thursday, January 1 at 8:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) vs. #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1)

A classic matchup, no doubt about it.

Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 8 (over/under 59)

Funny how the two biggest games in college football—and the first two playoff games over—have nearly double digit spreads. Alabama is a pretty big favorite as the Big Ten showed early on that it wasn't that great this year. After opening at 10 and quickly dipping to 9 1/2, the line is now touching 8 on game day.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -9.5 Spread
Alabama	57%	39%
Ohio State	43%	61%

Alabama is #1 with the Committee and they're also #1 in the All-Division Strength power rating. Ohio State is a respectable #5 after their dismantling of Wisconsin, but that makes them an underdog. They do win most of the comparisons when spotted the 9.5 point spread.

Strength power rating: #1 Alabama 36, #5 Ohio State 32
Median power rating: Alabama 35-33 Offense-limited power rating: Alabama 35-31

Adjusted scoring rankings
Alabama Offense vs. Ohio State Defense: #8 vs. #25
Ohio State Offense vs. Alabama Defense: #4 vs. #4

By the Strength power rating Alabama is a narrow 4 point favorite. When Ohio State is on offense, it's the #4 offense vs. the #4 defense. When Alabama has the ball it's a top ten offense against a barely top 25 defense. Interestingly by Median rating these teams are only #9 and #11; I guess those 59-0 wins tend to pump up a team's mean average but not the median.

Yardage analysis: #1 Alabama 34, #5 Ohio State 28
using yards per point: Alabama 31, Ohio State 23

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Alabama total Offense vs. Ohio State total Defense: #9 vs. #22
Ohio State total Offense vs. Alabama total Defense: #7 vs. #5

Alabama and Ohio State rank #1 and #5 in Strength and also in adjusted yardage differential, too. The breakdown numbers (total offense/total defense) roughly match the score-based figures as well. But the resultant spread is 6 points now. Alabama is expected to roll up about 450 yards while Ohio State just gets past 400.

Using a custom conversion of yards to points for each team, the spread grows to more than 8 points. Both teams are efficient in converting yards to points, but Alabama's defense is incredible and preventing opponents from doing so.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Alabama 30, Ohio State 24

Ohio State's special teams play is much better than Alabama's. The Buckeyes rank 29th in the FPI special teams component while the Tide is a dismal #101, a rare weakness for Alabama. It docks more than two points off the yards/point estimate.

When Alabama has the ball

Alabama rushing offense: #22

Ohio State rushing defense: #14

The 1-2 punch of TJ Yeldon (932 yards) and Derrick Henry (895 yards) keeps Alabama's ground game rolling. Ohio State's defense is stiff against the run but the Tide should have over 150 yards.

Alabama passing offense: #18

Ohio State passing defense: #51 per att: #14

It took Blake Sims a while to get his footing and prove that he should be the starter, but he's done an excellent job overall. 3,250 yards, 26 TDs, and just 7 interceptions? That's not bad at all. If anything happens to him, Jake Coker (4 TDs, 0 int) is always there. It helps that Alabama has the nation's best receiver in Amari Cooper (115 receptions, 1,656 yards, 14 TDs), and he's the one who is least replaceable. Ohio State doesn't give up a lot of yardage—they're 17th in raw pass defense—but they've played such poor passing teams that they correct to #51, making them look very vulnerable. Alabama might have over 280 passing yards.

Or they might not. Ohio State is also #14 in per-attempt yardage, which makes their defense look a lot better. They're #4 in the nation with 21 interceptions (Doran Grant and Vonn Bell have 5 each) and #6 in the nation with 40 sacks (Joey Bosa has 13.5). Alabama has only allowed 13 sacks so there will be a battle around the pocket on passing downs.

When Ohio State has the ball

Ohio State rushing offense: #8

Alabama rushing defense: #1

Ezekiel Elliot (1,402 yards, 12 TDs) is Ohio State's top ground weapon. The #2 weapon is JT Barrett (938 yards, 11 TDs), and he's out for the year. Replacement QB Cardale Jones is already the team's #4 rusher with 215 yards and a 6.3 average. The Buckeyes are up against the nation's top rush defense, however, and if they get 180 yards they should consider themselves fortunate.

Ohio State passing offense: #48

Alabama passing defense: #26 per att: #10

JT Barrett threw for 2,834 yards with 34 touchdowns and 10 picks. He finished 5th in voting for the Heisman Trophy. But he's not Ohio State's quarterback any more: Cardale Jones is. Jones is 22 of 34 for the year for 375 yards, 5 TDs, and no interceptions. That's not bad at all. He has Devin Smith (799 yards) and Michael Thomas (680) as targets, along with a half-dozen others who are above 100 receiving yards.

Alabama's pass defense is the opposite of Ohio State's: they do give up a lot of yards, but played such a tough schedule of passing teams that they correct into almost the top 25. But on a per-attempt basis they're one of the best. The Buckeyes can hope to have about 225 yards if Jones continues to be as effective as Barrett was.

The Tide doesn't have many picks on the year, just 10, and a surprisingly paltry 28 sacks. Ohio State has allowed 24.

Alabama's season (12-1)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (4)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)

=West Virginia 33-23
Florida Atlantic 41-0
Southern Miss 52-12
Florida 42-21
@#9 Mississippi 17-23
@Arkansas 14-13
Texas A&M 59-0
@Tennessee 34-20
@#23 LSU 20-13 ot
#7 Mississippi St 25-20
Western Carolina 48-14
#19 Auburn 55-44
=#16 Missouri 42-13

Everyone was looking for Alabama to falter this year and finally have a disastrous, multiple-loss season...like 9-3, or something nearly as terrible. When they struggled with West Virginia (4-8 last year) in the opener, and had a quarterback controversy and everything, the fall seemed imminent.

The Tide beat a few hapless teams, and then struggled a bit with Florida. A sure sign! Then came the loss to Ole Miss—strike two! And the final sign was beating Arkansas—3-9 last year—by just a point. They would have 3 or 4 losses for sure with the tough part of their schedule left to play.

Alabama probably heard all this talk and that's what led to the 59-0 beatdown of Texas A&M. After that there was little talk of the program sliding. They needed overtime to beat LSU, but got past Mississippi State and Auburn and were back in the SEC title game, where they crushed a hapless Missouri squad. That's 4 top 25 teams in five games. The Tide were not only good, they were very consistent as their chart shows. Alabama's decline will have to wait until at least next fall.

Ohio State's season (12-1)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)

@Navy 34-17
Virginia Tech 21-35
Kent St 66-0
Cincinnati 50-28
@Maryland 52-24
Rutgers 56-17
@Penn State 31-24 2ot
Illinois 55-14
@#8 Michigan St 49-37
@#25 Minnesota 31-24
Indiana 42-27
Michigan 42-28
=#18 Wisconsin 59-0

The Wisconsin game changed everything, though. The team lost Barrett, but even without him they beat the Badgers 59-0 in what was certainly the single most impressive win of the college football season. The Committee pushed out the pesky small-time TCU program with relish as the Buckeyes claimed the #4 spot. Instead of setting up a great Rose Bowl against Oregon they put the Buckeyes in New Orleans and sent FSU packing.

Key Injuries

The only firm injury of significance is the one to JT Barrett that kept him out of the Wisconsin game and will force him to miss Alabama, too. Both teams have had other season-ending injuries throughout the season but none so significant and so recent.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Alabama's season: +1 win; Ohio State's season: +0 wins
Alabama's momentum: +1 win; Ohio State's momentum: +1 win
Alabama won final game: YES; Ohio State won final game: YESSSSSSS
Alabama glad to be here? YES; Ohio State glad to be here: YES
Alabama time zones from home: 0; Ohio State time zones from home: 1;
Alabama coaching situation: stable; Ohio State coaching situation: stable

There's not much difference here. Both teams were great last year and made the Playoff this year, had an emphatic win to end the season, and recovered from an early-season loss. There won't be any problem with emotion or getting up for the game. Before the Wisconsin game Alabama might have been overconfident about the prospect of beating the Buckeyes, but no one would overlook them now.

Final analysis

In case you're wondering which 59-0 win is more impressive: according to the Strength power rating, beating Wisconsin 59-0 on a neutral field is 4 points harder than beating Texas A&M 59-0 at home. Shutting out the Aggies is a more impressive defensive feat, but putting 59 on Wisconsin is a more impressive offensive feat. Just so that's settled.

Ohio State's defense is the odd unit out in terms of ranking in the top ten by various measures, but they have a shot at keeping Alabama's score down. Not just because they shut out Wisconsin, but because their rush defense is strong, and on passing downs their combination of pressure and threat of big plays can keep Blake Sims from throwing the ball well. With Amari Cooper on the field the Tide is going to have success, but the Buckeyes can put a wrench in all the other works. It should allow them to stay close enough that their own offense has a chance to function.

On offense Ohio State has been good enough to move the ball on anyone. But that's given JT Barrett at the helm. Cardale Jones did a fantastic job against Wisconsin, but can he continue to do that well against the Tide? He faced almost no adversity against the Badgers and the defense shut the other team out. Ohio State is not going to shut out Alabama, so Jones will have a very different experience. Maybe he's every bit as good as Barrett, but he's almost certain to *not* do as well in his 2nd game as the first. If he has a bad game, it's over for Ohio State. And to win he has to play to perfection. It's probably too much to ask.

Based on his only game, you'd have to give Ohio State like 25 extra points but that data point is clearly unreliable. There's no way that game was anything but a fluke, and when judging how Jones might do, that game—ironically his only start—shouldn't be factored into the estimate. So we're throwing away Jones' only start to try to more realistically figure out how he'll perform! That makes for an 8-point Alabama win.

It's clear that the SEC was really good this year, and the Big Ten was not. That's probably why the line is as high as it is: there's a chance the Big Ten lays another egg in the bowl season, and Ohio State in particular seems to do that a lot. But even take away their monster win and we still get a close game. Alabama hasn't been blowing out the really good teams they've faced: they lost to Ole Miss, beat LSU in overtime, beat Auburn by 11, beat Mississippi State by 5. They're our #1-rated team so we take them to win, but we look for a good, competitive game.

Prediction: Alabama 35, Ohio State 31

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.

December 17, 2014 at 01:31 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014-2015 Rose Bowl (College Football Playoff) Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Oregon vs. Florida State

View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule here

Rose Bowl (College Football Playoff) in Pasadena, California
Time: Thursday, January 1 at 5:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#2 Oregon Ducks (12-1) vs. #3 Florida State Seminoles (13-0)

Here it is: the first playoff game ever in college football. It's a good one, too, pitting last year's champ, still undefeated, against an Oregon team that avenged its only loss.

Vegas line/spread: Oregon by 7 1/2 (over/under 71)

Anyone who doesn't understand why Oregon is a big favorite hasn't been paying attention this year. And anyone who doesn't understand why it's expected to be a high-scoring game hasn't been watching either team the last several years. The line peaked early at 9 1/2 but has settled down to 7 1/2 points early on game day, while the over/under remained pretty steady at 71.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -9.5 Spread
Oregon	81%	60%
Florida State	19%	40%

Oregon is one of the country's best teams, obviously, so they rank 3rd in our All-Division Strength power rating. Florida State is the undefeated defending national champion, so naturally they rank...20th? That's no typo. Oregon wins 4 out of 5 game-quality comparisons, and still 3 of 5 against the original 9.5 point spread. And no, we aren't adding anything for home field advantage to Oregon, as they're playing a long way from home too.

Strength power rating: #3 Oregon 43, #20 Florida State 30
Median power rating: Oregon 42-30 Offense-limited power rating: Oregon 42-30

Adjusted scoring rankings
Oregon Offense vs. Florida State Defense: #3 vs. #40
Florida State Offense vs. Oregon Defense: #19 vs. #21

Yes, Oregon is a 13-point favorite in our power rating. Note that in adjusted scoring, FSU's offense is roughly the equal of Oregon's defense, while Oregon's offense is far better than FSU's defense. It's the latter matchup that might finally deliver a blow too great for Jameis Winston's offense to recover from.

Fun fact: Last year's Florida State team would be favored by 23 points over this year's model.

Yardage analysis: #9 Oregon 45, #26 Florida State 35
using yards per point: Oregon 37, Florida State 28

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Oregon total Offense vs. Florida State total Defense: #4 vs. #50
Florida State total Offense vs. Oregon total Defense: #20 vs. #46

By yardage it's actually a tighter game. Oregon is only #9, and FSU just #26, in adjusted yardage differential. We foresee Oregon topping 500 yards by quite a bit while the Seminoles top 450 but not 500. Using just those yardage numbers that translates into a 10-point Oregon win.

If we convert the yards to points in a team-specific way—noting tendencies to score given a certain number of yards—the projected score gets way lower and the spread narrows to 9 points.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Oregon 37, Florida State 28

There's almost no difference in how ESPN's FPI views the Ducks' and Seminoles' special teams; both are pretty good. We keep the same points-per-yard estimate from above.

When Oregon has the ball

Oregon rushing offense: #17

Florida State rushing defense: #35

Royce Freeman is this year's feature back with 1,299 yards and 16 touchdowns. Marcus Mariota has 669 net yards and 14 touchdowns. Florida State's rushing defense is okay, but not fantastic; we expect the Ducks to have about 215 ground yards.

Oregon passing offense: #13

Florida State passing defense: #92 per att: #60

What can we say about Marcus Mariota, Heisman winner? Probably the most amazing thing about him is his 38:2 TD to interception ratio. He actually improved upon last year's 31:4 ratio, which itself improved upon his 32:6 ratio as a freshman. His 3,783 yards and 68% completion rate were improvements, too. This year's top receivers include Byron Marshall, Devon Allen, Dwayne Stanford, and Darren Carrington, who have a combined 2,500+ yards and 20 TDs.

Florida State's pass defense isn't great, and they're in for some trouble, probably to the tune of 320 yards or so. FSU has 13 picks on the year, but as we've seen an interception is a rare thing for Mariota. The Seminoles only have 17 sacks this year, too; Oregon has allowed 29, so it's an uncommon vulnerability for Mariota, but FSU isn't built to take full advantage of it. In short, it really looks like a long night for FSU's secondary.

When Florida State has the ball

Florida State rushing offense: #63

Oregon rushing defense: #56

FSU has lacked a solid running game this year, to say the least. They're #104 in raw yardage, but with their schedule that corrects to a very average #63. Still not up to snuff for a defending national champ. Dalvin Cook has come on strong late in the year and leads with 905 yards, while Karlos Williams has 609. Oregon's rush defense is just about average, too; they'll probably give up around 150 yards, but Cook's last few games have been potent and it could change things.

Florida State passing offense: #9

Oregon passing defense: #58 per att: #25

While Marcus Mariota improved since last year, Jameis Winston has definitely regressed. Apart from any off-field concerns, Winston is not as good as he was last year except in one category: winning games. This year Winston has 3,559 yards and 24 touchdowns vs. 17 interceptions. Last year's figures were 4,057 yards with a 40:10 ratio. He's had 38 more attempts but gained 500 fewer yards. He even has far fewer rushing yards.

Still, he's engineered a remarkable number of comeback wins this year. Some of those holes he dug himself, but he always dug out. Rashad Greene is the top target with 1,306 receiving yards, and tight end Nick O'Leary 2nd with 614. Oregon's pass defense is pretty average on a per-game basis and Winston should throw for around 310 yards.

Oregon has 11 picks this year, about average, but Winston has been giving out opportunities all year, especially in the first half. Oregon has 34 sacks and while FSU protects pretty well they've give up 21. The Ducks will need to do everything they can on defense to slow Winston down.

Oregon's season (12-1)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (4)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)

South Dakota 62-13
#8 Michigan St 46-27
Wyoming 48-14
@Washington St 38-31
#10 Arizona 24-31
@#14 UCLA 42-30
Washington 45-20
@California 59-41
Stanford 45-16
@#22 Utah 51-27
Colorado 44-10
@Oregon St 47-19
=#10 Arizona 51-13

Oregon actually only had 6 wins over bowl-bound teams, but four of those were Committee top 25 teams, including two in the top ten.

Florida State's season (13-0)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (9)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (0) to losing teams (0)

=Oklahoma St 37-31
The Citadel 37-12
#17 Clemson 23-17 ot
@North Carolina St 56-41
Wake Forest 43-3
@Syracuse 38-20
Notre Dame 31-27
@#21 Louisville 42-31
Virginia 34-20
@Miami FL 30-26
Boston College 20-17
Florida 24-19
=#12 Georgia Tech 37-35

If you want to see a graphic representation of how much better Florida State was last year, check out last year's chart on this page. Quite a difference.

This year's Seminoles didn't impress. But they did win. And win, and win, and win. Not since Ohio State of 2002 has there been a team that looks so bad while winning, but keeps winning no matter what. And that Ohio State team won the national championship.

From the first game against Oklahoma State something looked wrong. But we ignored it, thinking that one game doesn't mean anything. The win over The Citadel was extremely weak—but they didn't take the game seriously, right? They almost lost to Clemson, but they didn't have Jameis Winston (still, compare it to last year's 51-14 road win). They were behind at NC State big time. By the Notre Dame game they were 6-0 and it was still hard to tell if they were any good. The narrow win over a questionable Notre Dame team didn't answer anything. Nor did the comeback win against Louisville, the narrow B.C. win, the Miami comeback...eventually it became clear that this was going to happen to any team that wasn't overwhelmingly better than the Seminoles.

They escaped Florida and Georgia Tech, and looking back, it's quite an accomplishment. Nine wins over bowl teams, three wins over Committee top 25 teams. But look at their opponents' Strength ratings: Clemson #26, Notre Dame #38, Louisville #29, Miami #36, Florida #19, Georgia Tech #17. They beat a lot of good teams, but no great ones. And they barely beat the good ones. But they're certainly consistent, there's no doubt about that. And they win.

Key Injuries

Oregon will likely get back offensive lineman Hroniss Grasu and #3 rusher Thomas Tyner; both have missed multiple games. Running back Karlos Williams is still questionable for the game but he should be recovered from concussion symptoms by the game time, we would expect. It appears that Terrance Smith will play, and even Nile Lawrence-Stample, a defensive lineman hurt against Clemson, may be able to return. So instead of the usual bad news, both teams could be more or less at full strength.

Update: Oregon starting cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu was lost to injury, a big hit for Oregon's secondary.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Oregon's season: +1 win; Florida State's season: +0 wins
Oregon's momentum: +1 win; Florida State's momentum: +0 wins
Oregon won final game: YES; Florida State won final game: yes
Oregon glad to be here? YES; Florida State glad to be here: YES
Oregon time zones from home: 0; Florida State time zones from home: 3;
Oregon coaching situation: stable; Florida State coaching situation: stable

Neither team improved much from last year in the W column...because there wasn't much improvement available. Oregon was 10-2 and FSU 12-0 in the regular season. Nor did they gain much momentum over the year, since they won in both halves of the season. You could say that FSU's season was a lot less dominant than last year's, and that would be true. Also, Oregon has momentum in terms of how much better they played since the Arizona loss.

For this bowl game, there will never be a team that is not emphatically "glad to be here." We noted that Oregon is playing much closer to home, three time zones worth, and that could have some effect but it's likely very small. It will affect the crowd, which should be majority Ducks fans.

Final analysis

How can we analyze the Florida State Seminoles this year? Last year was easy: they were the best team, hands down, and one of the best teams in college football history most likely. This year's team is one of the weakest 13-0 teams in college football history. The change from a dominant, unrelenting force to a crafty comeback team happened immediately at the start of the season—though we couldn't believe it, and kept waiting for them to exhibit some dominance. One thing we can guess: it isn't going to start now. If the Seminoles win the national title, it will be with two comeback wins by a margin of about 3 points each time.

Oregon has been bridesmaid once before, and they finally want to seal the deal on a national title. For years they've been in the conversation from September to December then something has always gone wrong. When they saw it happening again with the Arizona loss they turned it up a notch and a few months later, here they are. They've played incredibly well the last 8 games and need that to continue.

Both teams are great on offense, but the defenses are vulnerable. Though Oregon's scoring defense is in the top 25, they give up so much yardage—both rushing and passing—that you can't consider them a lockdown defense. And Florida State has been hemorrhaging both points and yards all year as they fall behind and need to come back.

Oregon will be, by far, the best team FSU has faced this year. The same thing happened last year in the BCS championship game and Auburn stunned the Seminoles early with a 21-3 lead. They recovered to outscore the Tigers 31-10 and win, but that was last year's insanely great team. If this year's team takes an early gut punch like that—ok, we know they can come back against Louisville and Miami, but Oregon?

FSU has been winning due to consistency. They're always just good enough to win. They haven't had any great games, nor have they played poorly enough to lose. But against Oregon they're going to have to find a new gear. Even playing their best—the best they've played this year—isn't good enough to beat Oregon's average effort. It's time the Seminoles luck ran out—either in this game or the next one. I could see them getting to the national title game, because that would make their run all the more crazy, but I've felt for some time that they'd need to meet a clearly superior team to lose a game. Oregon is that team.

Though FSU and Winston will fight hard to keep up—and they will score on the Duck defense—Oregon's offense should be able to keep pouring it on as much as needed. Every time Winston comes back, the Ducks will have to score again...and by that scenario, things may get a bit crazy on the scoreboard.

Prediction: Oregon 56, Florida State 49

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.

December 17, 2014 at 04:10 AM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014-2015 Citrus Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Minnesota vs. Missouri

View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule here

Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida
Time: Thursday, January 1 at 1:00 pm ET
TV: ABC

#25 Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) vs. #16 Missouri Tigers (10-3)

More Big Ten vs. SEC action brought to you by M&Ms. That is, Minnesota and Missouri. But if M&Ms sponsored a bowl game they could call it the Bowl of M&Ms. Someone should send them a tweet...

Vegas line/spread: Missouri by 3 1/2 (over/under 47)

A low-scoring game is envisioned by the oddsmakers, who have the Tigers the. The line has dropped steadily since opening near a touchdown and now Missouri is just a 3 1/2 point favorite on game day. The over/under has remained pretty steady, dropping about a point total.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -5.5 Spread
Minnesota	40%	50%
Missouri	60%	50%

Missouri outranks Minnesota and thus wins most of the game comparisons, but it gets tricky around the mark of the early 5.5 point spread, with Missouri getting the majority by game comparisons and Minnesota winning by offense/defense splits. Let's save the explanations and just call it a coin flip vs. the spread.

Strength power rating: #21 Missouri 24, #32 Minnesota 20
Median power rating: Missouri 26-19 Offense-limited power rating: Missouri 25-21

Adjusted scoring rankings
Minnesota Offense vs. Missouri Defense: #48 vs. #7
Missouri Offense vs. Minnesota Defense: #50 vs. #28

The teams have pretty even offenses, but Missouri's top ten adjusted scoring defense it what makes the Tigers the better team. But both defenses are considerably better than the pedestrian offenses they're facing, however; hence the low score rpojections and the low Vegas over/under.

Missouri is a larger, 7-point favorite in the Median game rankings; the charts in the season summary will demonstrate that. The short version is, Minnesota played only about 4 really good games, so some bad to mediocre ones are used for the median range; and Missouri has only a few bad games dragging its mean average down, and those are disregarded by the median.

Yardage analysis: #36 Missouri 17, #44 Minnesota 16
using yards per point: Missouri 23, Minnesota 19

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Minnesota total Offense vs. Missouri total Defense: #80 vs. #18
Missouri total Offense vs. Minnesota total Defense: #76 vs. #23

As pedestrian as these offenses are based on scoring, they're downright awful when it comes to generating yardage, both ranking below #75 when adjusted for opponents. Needless to say the score estimate gleaned here is paltry. We expect Minnesota to have around 300 total yards of offense, and Missouri to beat them by around 20 yards. That yields a 17-16 result.

But clearly both of these teams are very good at turning paltry yardage into points on the board at a good clip. So we produce a score estimate using those tendencies and we come up with something similar to what the Strength power rating determined.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Missouri 22, Minnesota 20

Minnesota has pretty good special teams, ranked 13th by ESPN's FPI. Missouri isn't bad either but the Gophers regain about a point and a half.

When Minnesota has the ball

Minnesota rushing offense: #19

Missouri rushing defense: #15

The Gophers are a ground team (how fitting) and David Cobb is the trailblazer, rushing for 1,548 yards and 13 TDs this year. Missouri's rush defense is solid: the Gophers might have around 180 yards.

Minnesota passing offense: #119

Missouri passing defense: #29 per att: #9

Minnesota doesn't pass much and it shows: quarterback Mitch Leidner has 8 fewer passing yards than David Cobb has rushing yards, a 49% completion rate, and a 10:8 TD:int ratio. Those look like a Georgia Tech quarterback's numbers, and Leidner is a better runner, with 462 yards on the ground (10 TDs). Leading receiver Maxx Williams has 471 receiving yards. The Gophers will have around 120 yards most likely.

Missouri has a strong pass rush, 6th in the nation with 40 sacks. It's sort of wasted on Minnesota, but there will be passing downs and the Tigers will bring the heat, with Shane Ray (12.5 sacks) and Markus Golden (8.5) leading the way. Minnesota has allowed just 19 sacks, but against 221 attempts that's high.

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri rushing offense: #51

Minnesota rushing defense: #31

Russell Hansbrough has 970 rushing yards and Marcus Murphy 767 for the Tigers. Minnesota's decent defense might hold them to under 150 yards.

Missouri passing offense: #82

Minnesota passing defense: #17 per att: #30

Everyone seemed to think Maty Mauk was poised for a breakout season, but we cautioned against that talk due to the departure of last year's receivers and Mauk's 51% completion rate. He's raised that only to 52% this year and thrown 11 interceptions, but he has had 2,551 yards and 23 TDs. Bud Sasser is this year's top target with 935 yards (10 TDs) and Jimmie Hunt adds 698 (update: Hunt is out due to shoulder surgery). Minnesota isn't bad against the pass either and Mizzou might have around 180 yards through the air.

Minnesota has 13 interceptions this year and could get some big plays off Mauk. The Gopher pass rush isn't too devastating and Missouri protects pretty well.

Minnesota's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

E. Illinois 42-20
MTSU 35-24
@#6 TCU 7-30
San José St 24-7
@Michigan 30-14
Northwestern 24-17
Purdue 39-38
@Illinois 24-28
Iowa 51-14
#4 Ohio State 24-31
@Nebraska 28-24
@#18 Wisconsin 24-34

Minnesota didn't impress for most of the year. Before they beat Iowa they had no decent wins and had lost to Illinois, who seemed poised for a certain losing season before (and even after) that game. Their only bowl win was Middle Tennessee State since Michigan and Northwestern both fell short. Their game performances were less than stellar, and in their one game against an truly good opponent they were trashed 30-7.

But then came the Iowa game, and with a 51-14 blitz Minnesota found new life. They played well against Ohio State in a loss then beat Nebraska to stay alive in the Big Ten West. They fell to Wisconsin to end that dream, but the team had some life in it for a while. Looking back, the Iowa game was such a fluke that it was probably mostly the Hawkeyes' fault that they got blitzed so badly, but even if that's the case it gave the Gophers some much-needed juice.

Missouri's season (10-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (7)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (1)

S. Dakota St 38-18
@Toledo 49-24
Central Florida 38-10
Indiana 27-31
@South Carolina 21-20
#13 Georgia 0-34
@Florida 42-13
Vanderbilt 24-14
Kentucky 20-10
@Texas A&M 34-27
@Tennessee 29-21
Arkansas 21-14
=#1 Alabama 13-42

Missouri stared off with three pretty good wins, conquering two bowl-bound teams pretty easily. Then came a bad up-and-down stretch in which they lost to Indiana, narrowly edge South Carolina, and got crushed 34-0 by Georgia.

It's hard to say which loss was worse, but Indiana was better at the time, before they lost their quarterback. The Georgia loss was just plain bad. But the Tigers didn't dwell on it; they simply decapitated Florida, 42-13, at the swamp, scoring every which was other than with their offense: on a kickoff, a punt, a fumble, and an interception (they got a fifth touchdown after a fumble recovery in the red zone). So that huge blue bar over game 7 on the Offense chart isn't really "offense" at all.

The Tigers slipped back to mediocre in wins over Vandy and Kentucky, so even though they controlled their destiny in the SEC East they couldn't be taken seriously with three superior teams left to play. We projected they'd lost all three games; instead they beat the Aggies, the Vols, and the Razorbacks to earn a shot at the Tide. That shot failed, but at least they got it.

Key Injuries

Minnesota had a couple of questionable players that were upgraded to probable. Missouri will probably be without reserve D-back Cortland Browning.

The Tigers also announced that #2 receiver Jimmie Hunt will miss the game, making their passing game even less effective than we expected it to be. For Minnesota, #3 receiver Donovahn Jones was dismissed recently, and offensive tackle Ben Lauer is out with mono.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Minnesota's season: +0 wins; Missouri's season: -1 win
Minnesota's momentum: -3 wins; Missouri's momentum: +1 win
Minnesota won final game: NO; Missouri won final game: NO
Minnesota glad to be there? yes; Missouri glad to be there: yes
Minnesota time zones from home: 1; Missouri time zones from home: 1;
Minnesota coaching situation: stable; Missouri coaching situation: stable

Though Missouri's season was one win worse than last year's, it doesn't feel like, maybe because they weren't supposed to win the SEC East again and they did. And Minnesota lost 3 of their last 5 but it doesn't feel like they ended the season badly; maybe because they competed for the Big Ten title until the end. Both teams had a tough schedule down the stretch. Though winning their last game would have been great for either of them, they have to be glad to still be playing on New Year's Day.

Final analysis

Nobody thought these teams would end up the winners of the Big Ten and the SEC, and well, they were right. They didn't. But Minnesota was in the thick of the Big Ten West race up until the end, and Missouri won the SEC East for the 2nd straight year.

Expect a ground battle between these teams as Minnesota isn't a passing team and Missouri often isn't effective through the air, while the Gopher pass defense is solid (as is Missouri's). In addition to that, both teams have lost key receivers for the bowl game.

Missouri and Minnesota look very even by expected total yardage. Missouri is more likely to capitalize on that yardage if they get in the red zone, where they rank #5 in red zone conversions and Minnesota is #115 on defense. But that doesn't mean the Tigers have a huge advantage: the Gophers are #23 in red zone offense and Missouri just #111 on defense. That's why the game should have more scoring than the 17-16 estimate based solely on yardage. If it goes into overtime, it might be a late afternoon before someone doesn't score from the 25.

Each team had a fluke game that stands out as their best, head and shoulders above the others. For Missouri it's easy to explain: they scored 4 non-offensive touchdowns. It's safe to disregard that game when calculating Missouri's true strength since that circumstance will never happen again. Minnesota's win over Iowa can't be summarily executed, since they scored the old-fashioned way, with runs and passes. But it's an eyesore on the chart in any case.

So while both teams' ratings get a boost from one big game, and have a late-season surge that might continue—or might not based on their final games—we're just going to look at our power ratings, plain and simple. In almost every variation of Strength-based or yardage-based estimates, we have the Tigers winning by a handful of points. The Median Strength projection is the only one outside a 1 to 4 point spread, and that one doesn't look like a good fit here. No more psychology, just the numbers: Missouri earns a narrow victory.

Prediction: Missouri 22, Minnesota 21

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December 17, 2014 at 01:33 AM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

December 16, 2014

2014-2015 Cotton Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Michigan State vs. Baylor

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Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas
Time: Thursday, January 1 at 12:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#8 Michigan State Spartans (10-2) vs. #5 Baylor Bears (11-1)

Baylor wanted a chance to test itself against the Playoff teams; Michigan State has already lost to two of them.

Vegas line/spread: Baylor by 3 (over/under 70)

Baylor is a narrow favorite playing near home in Arlington, and the line has bounced around 3 points for weeks. Given the offenses involved, it's natural that a high score is projected by the oddsmakers, but after peaking at 71.5 the over/under has declined to 70 by game day.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3 Spread
Michigan State	41%	47%
Baylor	59%	53%

Both of these teams are in the top ten of the Strength power rating; Baylor is slightly higher at #7 than #10 Michigan State. We also give the Bears partial home field advantage for playing in-state and close to home while East Lansing is over 1,000 miles away. Thus Baylor wins the majority of game comparisons even against a 3 point spread.

Strength power rating: #7 Baylor 41, #10 Michigan State 37
Median power rating: Baylor 42-37 Offense-limited power rating: Baylor 39-36

Adjusted scoring rankings
Michigan State Offense vs. Baylor Defense: #6 vs. #39
Baylor Offense vs. Michigan State Defense: #1 vs. #20

The offenses involved here are so potent that the Strength power rating calls for a whopping 78 points (closer to 79 actually, as each score is rounded down). Michigan State's adjusted scoring offense is #6 while Baylor's is #1 in the nation (these figures use the All-Division Strength power rating, not the FBS-only version). The defenses aren't bad but generally they shouldn't be able to get the best of the offenses in either case. Michigan State's D is down a few notches at #20 this season.

In any case, it's about a 4-point spread for the Bears. 5 points if we use median game ratings for each team, and 3 points if we constrain high scores to balance out offense and defense a bit more. In the latter case it affects Baylor a bit more, but not by much as the Spartans have high-scoring games, too.

Yardage analysis: #2 Baylor 38, #4 Michigan State 31
using yards per point: Baylor 37, Michigan State 31

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Michigan State total Offense vs. Baylor total Defense: #16 vs. #30
Baylor total Offense vs. Michigan State total Defense: #1 vs. #8

Baylor and Michigan State rank even higher—#2 and #4—in yardage differential, the difference between yards gained on offense and yards yielded on defense, adjusted for opposition of course. Here Baylor again has the #1 most productive offense and a reasonably good defense. Michigan State's offense is in the top 25, and their defense is in the top ten. From this we expect Baylor to gain nearly 500 yards while Michigan State has almost 450; this translates to a 7-point margin and a score total that, while it's still high, isn't outrageously so.

Converting the yardage to a score based on each team's yards-per-point tendencies doesn't change the estimate very much at all; both teams score points on very little yardage, relatively, while their defenses demand more yards per point of their opponent.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Baylor 37, Michigan State 32

Michigan State's special teams help them while Baylor's hurt them a bit, on average. It's around a 1.25 point swing toward the Spartans and the yardage estimate margin ends up at around 5 point.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State rushing offense: #16

Baylor rushing defense: #19

Jeremy Langford (1,360 yards, 19 TDs) is the Spartans' main running back, and Nick Hill (596, 9 TDs) is a good changeup back. The Spartans run the ball well and the Bears defend the run well; Michigan State should have almost, but not quite, 200 yards.

Michigan State passing offense: #49

Baylor passing defense: #68 per att: #67

Connor Cook is having almost a carbon copy of his 2013 season, with 2,900 yards to last year's 2,755. His completion rate (58%), touchdowns (22), and interceptions (6) are the same as last year's stats. The difference is that he's achieved those stats in 57 fewer attempts, and he still has a game to go. His yards/attempt are up from 7.25 to 9.0. Tony Lippett is his go-to receiver with 1,124 yards and 11 TDs. Baylor's pass defense is its vulnerability and the Spartans could have nearly 250 yards for the afternoon.

Baylor is only average at intercepting the ball but they have a top 25 pass rush in raw numbers (36 on the year; Shawn Oakman leads with 10). But the Spartans protect the passer well and have allowed only 10 sacks this season.

When Baylor has the ball

Baylor rushing offense: #23

Michigan State rushing defense: #2

Baylor has their own 1-2 punch at running back: Shock Linwood leads with 1,226 yards (16 TDs) while Johnny Jefferson adds 526 and 6. Michigan State's rushing defense is, as usual, one of the best in the country; we rank it #2, up from a raw-figures #7 after adjusting for the offenses they've faced. Baylor probably won't reach 150 yards against it.

Baylor passing offense: #4

Michigan State passing defense: #40 per att: #12

Another year, another uber-productive Baylor quarterback. Bryce Petty's numbers (3,305 yards, 26 TDs, 6 int) might not be quite up to last year's figures but if you add in backup Seth Russell's 804 yards, 8 TDs and 1 pick, it's pretty close. This year Corey Coleman is the top pass-catcher with 969 yards and 10 TDs, while KD Cannon (833), Antwan Goodley (737), and Jay Lee (596) all contribute heavily. Michigan State's pass defense has been their weakness, and Baylor should have around 350 passing yards.

With their rush defense so strong, what are you going to do except throw the ball on the Spartans? So Michigan State up a lot of yards, but on a per-attempt basis they're pretty good. They also get a lot of interceptions—17 so far this year—and have 37 sacks. The Spartan sack brigade is led by the aptly-named Marcus Rush (7 sacks), with Shilique Calhoun (6.5) and Ed Davis (6.0) heavily involved. Baylor has yielded 19 sacks, not bad for almost 500 attempts, but there will be ample opportunity for the Spartan D to try to make big plays.

Michigan State's season (10-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

Jacksonville St 45-7
@#2 Oregon 27-46
E Michigan 73-14
Wyoming 56-14
Nebraska 27-22
@Purdue 45-31
@Indiana 56-17
Michigan 35-11
#4 Ohio State 37-49
@Maryland 37-15
Rutgers 45-3
@Penn State 34-10

For as much hype as Michigan State's season got, they only had one win over a bowl team after 9 games—most of their 'street cred' came from losing only to Oregon, and later, only to Oregon and Ohio State.

It's true, when your only losses come to Playoff teams, you might be really good, but by that logic Marshall should have been in the top ten; the Spartans were dominant in their cupcake games, but so were the Thundering Herd. MSU was beating Nebraska 27-3 but the Cornhuskers came back and almost had a shot near the end. At 7-1 it was assumed they'd beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten, but the Buckeyes had other ideas. The Spartans' last three wins were all vs. bowl teams, i.e. bowl team wins #2, 3, and 4. Though they dropped from #7 to #8, and therefore out of the Orange Bowl on a week where they didn't play (nor did the team that passed them), they made the Cotton Bowl which is pretty snazzy, and more importantly they played very well after the Ohio State loss, a good sign going forward.

Baylor's season (11-1)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)

SMU 45-0
Northwestern St 70-6
@Buffalo 63-21
@Iowa St 49-28
@Texas 28-7
#6 TCU 61-58
@West Virginia 27-41
Kansas 60-14
@Oklahoma 48-14
Oklahoma St 49-28
=Texas Tech 48-46
#11 Kansas St 38-27

Baylor did it's typical tiptoe through the cupcakes in the early season, scoring 45 or more points until Texas, who finished with the #1 pass defense, held them to 28. The next game was one for the ages, as TCU and Baylor combined fror 119 points and the Bears overcame a 21-point 4th quarter deficit to win.

They lost the very next game to West Virginia, however, and that—and their weak non-conference schedule—would hold them out of the Playoff. For a long time it looked like they'd remain ranked below TCU, but their final wins included three bowl teams including #11 Kansas State, as well as a 48-14 blowout of Oklahoma that probably replaced Auburn's 41-7 win over LSU as the most impressive of the year (and held it until Ohio State-Wisconsin). They beat Kansas much more easily than TCU did, but had much more trouble with Texas Tech when Bryce Petty was knocked out of the game and their big lead almost vanished. The K-State win was enough to put them ahead of TCU but not enough to make the top four, but once there were no upsets it was pretty clear they wouldn't make it. They were more angry with their own conference for promoting TCU as a co-champion than they ultimately were with the Committee.

Key Injuries

Baylor might be missing #3 running back Devin Chafin. For Michigan State, senior offensive lineman Travis Jackson might still be out; he missed the season finale as well. Update: Jackson is now listed as probable.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Michigan State's season: -1 win; Baylor's season: +1 win
Michigan State's momentum: +0 wins; Baylor's momentum: -1 win
Michigan State won final game: YES; Baylor won final game: YES
Michigan State glad to be there? yes; Baylor glad to be there: yes
Michigan State time zones from home: 1; Baylor time zones from home: 0;
Michigan State coaching situation: stable; Baylor coaching situation: stable

Both teams had great seasons last year, and both had great 2014 campaigns. Though Baylor added a win and MSU dipped by 1, these programs are not so used to going 11-1 or 10-2 that they are disappointed with one over the other. They both ended the season playing very well. They're both glad to be playing in a great bowl game, while at the same time holding a bit of disappointment about what could have been. There's more of that for Baylor, who should have been able to beat West Virginia; you can't fault Michigan State for losing to two Playoff teams—they got their shot at them.

Final analysis

Compared to Baylor, Michigan State is a serene lake in terms of its volatility, or lack thereof. The Spartans always play well, and at roughly the same high level. Baylor is all over the place, mostly due to their defense: some weeks it can't cope with the breakneck pace the offense sets and the opponent tires it out. When both units are "on" you get things like the Oklahoma game. When the defense is off you might have the Texas Tech near-loss, the TCU game, or the West Virginia game. Baylor's best games are better than Michigan State's, but its poorest games are worse.

So Baylor largely determines the course of the game. Michigan State is going to do their thing. They won't ever play a bad game, but if Baylor is firing on all cylinders even the Spartans can't stop them. Under normal circumstances Michigan State's defense is a good match for Baylor: they can slow down the run game considerably; their per-attempt pass defense is sound; they can make big plays with interceptions and sacks. They've given up 300+ passing yards only twice: to Oregon and Ohio State. We're projecting 350 yards from Baylor.

But Oregon and Ohio State also had 173 and 268 rushing yards respectively, and Baylor probably won't come close to that. The Spartans just need a few big plays on defense and they can win the game. The way they've been playing recently is a really good sign. After the Oregon loss they didn't miss a beat, as they still had hope for a Big Ten title. That pretty much died with the Ohio State loss, but they didn't wilt like some other teams whose title hopes died—they played even better in thrashing three bowl teams in a row.

That's probably due to coaching. Mark Dantonio seems to be able to get the best out of his players, and this is an example of a team that didn't give up, and plays good, consistent football week in and week out. That consistency means they shouldn't let the game get out of hand, and with their defense able to stop the run better than they could against Oregon or Ohio State, they can focus more on stopping the pass. Meanwhile, their own potent offense has a chance to do damage, tire out Baylor's defense, and score points. The Spartans failed twice before to beat a top five team but maybe three's a charm.

Prediction: Michigan State 38, Baylor 35

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December 16, 2014 at 11:28 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014-2015 Outback Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Auburn vs. Wisconsin

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Outback Bowl in Tampa, Florida
Time: Thursday, January 1 at Noon ET
TV: ESPN2

#19 Auburn Tigers (8-4) vs. #18 Wisconsin Badgers (10-3)

The New Year's Day Big Ten vs. SEC matchups start with the Outback Bowl.

Vegas line/spread: Auburn by 5 1/2 (over/under 65 1/2)

The Tigers were a touchdown favorite over the Badgers the day before the game, up from a 6 1/2 point early line—but by kickoff the line was down to 5 1/2. The over/under projects a high-scoring game and has grown from an early 61 to 65 1/2.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -6.5 Spread
Auburn	61%	50%
Wisconsin	39%	50%

Auburn is also the favorite of the Strength power rating and its game ratings. Cross-comparing those ratings shows Auburn wins about 3 of 5 cases, but against the spread exactly half go each way (if we split offensive and defensive performances, Auburn gets slightly over 50%). The Tigers are #8 in Strength, while Wisconsin is #16.

Strength power rating: #8 Auburn 35, #16 Wisconsin 28
Median power rating: Auburn 35-28 Offense-limited power rating: Auburn 34-27

Adjusted scoring rankings
Auburn Offense vs. Wisconsin Defense: #7 vs. #18
Wisconsin Offense vs. Auburn Defense: #26 vs. #17

The Tigers are favored by around 7 1/2 points by the Strength power rating, and the scores round to a 7-point projection. The teams' defenses are roughly even after correction for schedule; in raw figures, Auburn is #61 in the FBS and Wisconsin #17, but Auburn has faced far better offenses and the correction almost draws them even. Meanwhile Auburn has a much better scoring offense. In the end the Tigers have the edge in both matchups.

Yardage analysis: #6 Auburn 34, #7 Wisconsin 31
using yards per point: Auburn 33, Wisconsin 28

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Auburn total Offense vs. Wisconsin total Defense: #3 vs. #7
Wisconsin total Offense vs. Auburn total Defense: #22 vs. #34

By yardage differential Auburn and Wisconsin are both top ten teams, making for a very close game. Auburn's offense and Wisconsin's defense rank in the top ten in total defense (adjusted). We expect the Tigers and Badgers to both gain well over 400 yards of offense, with the resultant score estimate from this yardage showing a 3 point advantage for Auburn.

If we convert yardage to points using team-specific yards-per-point tendencies, then the spread widens to over five points again.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Auburn 34, Wisconsin 26

Auburn has better special teams overall according to ESPN's FPI, adding another 2 points to the spread, making it 7.57 points. The Strength power rating's exact spread was 7.59 points, so we've arrived at the same place through two very different methods.

When Auburn has the ball

Auburn rushing offense: #6

Wisconsin rushing defense: #11

Auburn is one of the nation's best rushing teams again this year. Cameron Artis-Payne leads the way with 1,482 yards, and QB Nick Marshall adds 780. Both have 11 touchdowns. Wisconsin happens to have one of the best rush defenses, too, so it should be quite a battle. Expect Auburn to have around 230 yards.

Artis-Payne might have given Wisconsin's defense some incentive by saying he would have had 2,000 yards if he played in the Big Ten like Melvin Gordon.

Auburn passing offense: #40

Wisconsin passing defense: #7 per att: #46

Nick Marshall has 2,315 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, a bit better than last year's numbers but for the most part more of the same. His top receivers are D'haquille Williams and Sammie Coates who combine for over 1,400 yards and 9 TDs. Wisconsin also has a tough pass defense and Auburn might not have much more than 200 yards. Update: Since Auburn is without leading receiver Williams now, it stands to reason that 200 yards is a max estimate.

Wisconsin's defensive yards-per-attempt ranking isn't so hot, though, at #46. A big reason they rank #7 in per-game adjusted yardage is because they don't face pass-heavy teams (they are #6 in fewest attempts against them). And Auburn is #3 in yards per attempt on offense, so the script could be flipped in the Tigers' favor, as long as they don't miss Williams too much.

Wisconsin doesn't get many interceptions—another artifact of not having the ball thrown at them much—but they do have 36 sacks on the year. 36 sacks vs. 324 attempts is a 10% sack rate, so they can really bring the pressure. Auburn has given up only 14 sacks this year but they'll be tested. Derek Landisch and Vince Biegel combine for 15.5 sacks for the Badgers.

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin rushing offense: #4

Auburn rushing defense: #26

Wisconsin's running game is always one of the best, and of course this year they have one of the best running backs in Melvin Gordon, recent Heisman runner-up. Gordon has 2,336 yards this year—a 7.6 ypc average—and 26 touchdowns. Not to mention setting (briefly) the all-time FBS single-game rushing record with 408 against Nebraska. Corey Clement (844 yards) is another threat and QB Tanner McEvoy (574 net) can run the ball well, too. Auburn's rush defense is sound but they'll likely yield upwards of 300 yards on the ground, unless they can replicate Ohio State's defensive stand in the Big Ten championship game.

Wisconsin passing offense: #117

Auburn passing defense: #61 per att: #37

Tanner McEvoy (709 yards, 5 TDs, 6 int) started the season before Joel Stave (1,229 yards, 8:7) came back and took over passing chores; McEvoy continues to run wildcat sets. You can see from the numbers the passing game isn't too advanced this year in Madison. Alex Erickson leads the receiving corps with 734 yards. Auburn has average pass defense but that's all it should take to hold the Badgers under 150 yards for the game.

Auburn will also make teams pay for passing, as they have 19 interceptions on the year; Jonathan Jones leads with 6. They don't pressure well as evidenced by their 20 sacks, and Wisconsin protects well (12 sacks), so avoiding picks is Stave's main concern.

Auburn's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

Arkansas 45-21
San José St 59-13
@#11 Kansas St 20-14
Louisiana Tech 45-17
#23 LSU 41-7
@#7 Mississippi St 23-38
South Carolina 42-35
@#9 Mississippi 35-31
Texas A&M 38-41
@#13 Georgia 7-34
Samford 31-7
@#1 Alabama 44-55

Auburn was the best team in the country after five games, no question about it. Then they dropped to a lower level and stayed there the rest of the season, losing 4 of their last 7 games.

The 45-21 win over Arkansas didn't look impressive at the time but it sure is now. The Tigers crushed San Jose State, got a tough road win at Kansas State, blasted an underrated Louisiana Tech, and then absolutely demolished LSU in what was the year's best performance by any team at the time.

But everything went wrong at Mississippi State, and the Tigers dug a hole they couldn't get out of and lost. It's impossible to say if the team went bad before the loss, or whether it started with the loss and carried on afterwards, but the former makes less sense. It seems that after the loss, Auburn's dream to get back to the championship and win it was rattled, and they lost confidence. In 2013 every break went their way, from miracle catches to insane field goal returns, but the Mississippi State game showed them that bad luck was coming back to get them.

In the aftermath they beat South Carolina, barely, and managed to hold on—literally, in the case of the goal-line tackle—for their last big win at Ole Miss. But after that they lost to Texas A&M, which led to Georgia blasting them 34-7. They gave it a good try against Alabama but it wasn't enough. The season ended on a disappointing note for sure.

Wisconsin's season (10-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (7)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (3) to losing teams (1)

=#23 LSU 24-28
W Illinois 37-3
Bowling Green 68-17
South Florida 27-10
@Northwestern 14-20
Illinois 38-28
Maryland 52-7
@Rutgers 37-0
@Purdue 34-16
Nebraska 59-24
@Iowa 26-24
#25 Minnesota 34-24
=#4 Ohio State 0-59

Wisconsin led LSU at the half but then forgot that they have Melvin Gordon on their team and lost. Not a bad loss as losses go, and the Badgers played well in the next two games before a three-game stretch where they didn't look good at all: beating USF by 17, losing to Northwestern, and beating Illinois by 10.

Wisconsin finally came to life against Maryland, pounding the Terps 52-7, and went on to shut out Rutgers 37-0, beat Purdue 34-16, and ran all over Nebraska 59-24. They edged Iowa then beat Minnesota for the right to play Ohio State in the Big Ten championship. They were doing so well at this point that they were actually favored over a JT Barett-less Buckeye squad. But everything that could go wrong against Ohio State did, but more to the point they were just plain beat. It certainly wasn't how they wanted the season to end, to say the least.

Key Injuries

Auburn will be without sacks leader DaVonte Lambert, who had knee surgery recently, and another defensive lineman, Jeffery Whitaker, is questionable. Wisconsin D-line starter Konrad Zagzebski will probably miss the game, too, after being injured on and off this season, and two offensive linemen are listed as questionable.

Update: Auburn's leading receiver, D'haquille Williams is suspended and will miss the game.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Auburn's season: -3 wins; Wisconsin's season: +1 win
Auburn's momentum: -2 wins; Wisconsin's momentum: +1 win
Auburn won final game: NO; Wisconsin won final game: NOOOOOOO
Auburn glad to be there? no; Wisconsin glad to be there: maybe
Auburn time zones from home: 0; Wisconsin time zones from home: 1;
Auburn coaching situation: stable; Wisconsin coaching situation: coach left

There's a lot going on here that affects both teams. Auburn's season wasn't the magical one they had last year; it started out like it was going to be, but then it fell apart. Wisconsin had a better record than last year after 12 games and they were riding a winning streak going into the Big Ten championship game. That game was devastating. Auburn's loss to rival Alabama was bad, but at least they were competitive. Now Wisconsin is left with "ending on a better note" as motivation.

Apart from the season's dynamics, two events further affected the teams. First, Wisconsin head coach Gary Anderson departed for Oregon State, which has to feel like a slap in the face to the program. The players probably won't be affected in a positive way either. But Barry Alvarez is once again stepping in to coach the team during the transition. He did so in the Rose Bowl two years ago when Bret Bielema left and they lost 20-14, but it probably would have been worse with a random interim coach.

The more significant event occurred on December 16 when Auburn freshman RB/TE Jakell Mitchell was shot and killed. Mitchell was redshirting this year. The team will be wearing decals in his honor.

Final analysis

Only two teams have managed to bottle up Melvin Gordon this year and hold him to fewer than 100 yards. One was Ohio State, who held him to 76 yards in 26 carries, a 2.9 average. The other was Western Illinois, who held him to 2.0 yards per carry: 38 yards in 17 attempts. Everyone else allowed at least 122 yards and at least 5.2 yards per carry. Western Illinois put a safety near the line to try to help keep Gordon from "getting any space." Ohio State DC Luke Fickell says there was no secret: they just played "with a chip on their shoulder." The Buckeyes are #14 in rush defense to Auburn's #26, so the chip on the shoulder might not work as well, but if Western Illinois can slow him down with an extra man in the box, the Tigers should be able to scheme something. Nothing worked well for 11 of 13 teams, though.

Both teams had seasons end in embarrassment. Auburn lost three of its last four—beating only Samford—while Wisconsin got obliterated by Ohio State. While both teams still made a New Year's Day bowl game, the Outback has never seemed like a real New Year's Day bowl game. They're playing a great opponent, but the disappointment of the end of the season has to mute their enthusiasm. Wisconsin is never really in the national title run, so their disappoinment isn't as great as Auburn's, as the Tigers are recent winners and more recent runner-up.

And Auburn didn't play well the last 7 games compared to the first five. The projections we give early in the review are usually for full-season averages, and for the Tigers that doesn't apply. They might be #8 in Strength for the year, but for their last seven games they're closer to #22—several spots lower than Wisconsin. The Badgers are a 2.5 point favorite when we view Auburn how they should be viewed.

Unless, of course, we give added weight to Wisconsin's final game. If the Badgers do that again, it's obvious they can't win or even come close. But we don't think that's going to happen. That was a 1 in 1,000 perfect storm kind of defeat where the Ohio State played perfectly and Wisconsin played their worst. If anything, the Ohio State result should be ignored since it's so unrepresentative of Wisconsin's quality. That puts the Badgers up by 6 or 7 points. And Auburn is now without their top receiver.

So, Wisconsin by a touchdown? Not so fast. We mentioned the Auburn player who was killed, and sadly this will affect them in some way. It's hard to tell but generally players who are playing for one of their own become very emotional and motivated. This will probably erase the notion that the Tigers will play like their 2nd-half-of-season team. They might even recapture their form from the first five games.

The way the season ended for both teams makes it a complicated pick, the coaching change added to the confusion around Wisconsin, and now the tragedy on top of it really scrambles things. But we're assuming the Tigers come together and win it for Jakell Mitchell.

Prediction: Auburn 35, Wisconsin 24

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December 16, 2014 at 03:52 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014-2015 Orange Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech

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Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens, Florida
Time: Wednesday, December 31 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#7 Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) vs. #12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-3)

The almost-SEC-West champ vs. the almost-ACC champ.

Vegas line/spread: Mississippi State by 5 (over/under 60)

The Bulldogs were an early 7 point favorite but that fell to 5 by game day. The over/under slid from 61.5 to 60.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7 Spread
Mississippi State	67%	46%
Georgia Tech	33%	54%

Mississippi State finished #9 in Strength while Georgia Tech ended up #17. That shouldn't be enough difference to give the Bulldogs 2/3 of the game-comparisons, but as we'll see Georgia Tech's season had an interesting trajectory and a lot of their early games weren't anything to crow about. The Bulldogs also win the majority against a 7-point spread for the same reason.

Strength power rating: #9 Mississippi State 37, #17 Georgia Tech 29
Median power rating: Mississippi State 40-26 Offense-limited power rating: Mississippi State 37-29

Adjusted scoring rankings
Mississippi State Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense: #9 vs. #42
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense: #12 vs. #12

The Bulldogs are an 8-point favorite by the Strength power rating, not far off the Vegas line. But note the Median score estimate of 14 points. It uses only the median game-performance score, and Georgia Tech's early season is full of mediocre games; their later games are almost all great performances, so this measure is probably unrepresentative.

Comparing the O and D units, Mississippi State has a big advantage when on offense, but the flip side features two very even platoons, both nearly top ten quality.

Yardage analysis: #14 Mississippi State 41, #21 Georgia Tech 38
using yards per point: Mississippi State 34, Georgia Tech 27

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Mississippi State total Offense vs. Georgia Tech total Defense: #6 vs. #43
Georgia Tech total Offense vs. Mississippi State total Defense: #14 vs. #57

There's one big difference between the score-based estimate and the yardage-based one: Mississippi State's defense. For some reason the Bulldogs give up a ton of yardage. They're no better than an average team in this respect. Yet they manage to have a top ten scoring defense. It's not due to turnovers, as they're just 38th in that department. The culprit is no doubt their #1 ranked red zone defense. They let their opponents get all the way down the field before shutting them down.

They still win the yardage estimate, but it's tighter at 3 points; we have them gaining over 500 yards while Georgia Tech stops just short of that. However, once we factor in the amount of yards an opponent needs to score on Mississippi State, things change, and the Bulldogs are a 7-point favorite.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Mississippi State 35, Georgia Tech 26

The Bulldogs gain a couple of points due to their superior special teams play (Georgia Tech's are not good). That brings the margin to 9 points, close to the Strength power rating's estimate.

When Mississippi State has the ball

Mississippi State rushing offense: #15

Georgia Tech rushing defense: #29

Josh Robinson leads Mississippi State with 1,128 yards and 11 touchdowns, but Dak Prescott isn't far behind with 939 yards and 13 scores. Georgia Tech is good against the run—they've faced tough running defenses so their ranking corrects to nearly top 25 level—but the Bulldogs should have around 220 yards.

Mississippi State passing offense: #28

Georgia Tech passing defense: #93 per att: #81

Dak Prescott can do more than run—he has almost 3,000 passing yards and 24 touchdowns vs. 10 interceptions. He spreads the ball around almost to a fault, with 9 receivers above 150 yards led by DeRunynna Wilson's 575. Georgia Tech has faced mostly poor passing teams and ranks only an adjusted #93 against the pass; look for Prescott to have almost 300 yards through the air.

Georgia Tech's pass defense is good at picking off passes (they have 17 this year) so that's how they can short-circuit Prescott's efforts. Their pass rush isn't good at all (18 sacks) so they're going to need turnovers to stop him.

When Georgia Tech has the ball

Georgia Tech rushing offense: #1

Mississippi State rushing defense: #12

It's no shock that Georgia Tech is #1 in the nation is adjusted ground yardage (technically they're #3 in raw figures, before considering that their schedule is a lot tougher than Georgia Southern's or Navy's). They're also #4 in per-carry average yardage, so it's not just a matter of volume of running plays. They're actually hard to stop on any given down.

QB Justin Thomas takes the lead in the triple-option with 965 yards, while Zach Laskey and Synjyn Days combine for another 1,500 and 15 touchdowns. Nine more players have over 100 yards. That's a lot of yardage. Mississippi State's rushing defense is very sound, but the Wreck will most likely top 300 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs' adjusted per-carry defensive ranking is #26, not good enough to make us think they'll shut down the Yellow Jackets' ground game. The extra preparation time before the bowl will help, though.

Georgia Tech passing offense: #123

Mississippi State passing defense: #122 per att: #47

Georgia Tech's passing game is inconsequential and mostly used as a surprise. But in this game it might come in handy because Mississippi State is very vulnerable to the pass. Justin Thomas is completing 51% of his passes—that's excellent for Georgia Tech, who usually goes for bombs—and has 1,594 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions. They even have a receiver (DeAndre Smelter) who has 715 yards—though he might not play. Georgia Tech often ranks high in yards per attempt passing, and this year is no exception. They should have almost 200 passing yards if Smelter is available.

FYI, Georgia Tech has surpassed 200 yards just twice against FBS foes this year, and they lost both games. It's usually a sign of desparation for them, but this time it could be part of their normal plan. As for Mississippi State, they get quite a few interceptions (15 so far) and they sack the quarterback often (36 times this year), so they can hope for big plays to result from Tech's passing schemes. Naturally Georgia Tech hasn't allowed many sacks (10) vs. their 191 attempts.

Mississippi State's season (10-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

Southern Miss 49-0
UAB 47-34
@South Alabama 35-3
@#23 LSU 34-29
Texas A&M 48-31
#19 Auburn 38-23
@Kentucky 45-31
Arkansas 17-10
UT-Martin 45-16
@#1 Alabama 20-25
Vanderbilt 51-0
@#9 Mississippi 17-31

Mississippi State shut out Southern Miss, then beat two eventual bowl qualifiers. Or, another way to look at it: Mississippi State beat a team that went 0-12 a few years ago, a program that gave up football at the end of the season, and a team that's been in the FBS for about 10 seconds.

It's easy to understand why Mississippi State wasn't really on the national radar at 3-0, but when they beat LSU—and the score was a lot worse most of the game—people took notice. Fed another then-top-10 team in Texas A&M, they handed the Aggies their first loss. Finally, undefeated Auburn, no problem. They beat the #8, #6, and #2 teams in succession. But again, another way to look at it: they beat two 8-4 teams and a 7-5 team. As those teams' resumes faltered, so did Mississippi State, letting Kentucky get too close and almost losing to Arkansas. Alabama finally ended their dream run, but there was still hope of an SEC title until the loss to Mississippi in the Egg Bowl.

Georgia Tech's season (10-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (7)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

Wofford 38-19
@Tulane 38-21
GA Southern 42-38
@Virginia Tech 27-24
Miami FL 28-17
Duke 25-31
@North Carolina 43-48
@Pittsburgh 56-28
Virginia 35-10
@NC State 56-23
#17 Clemson 28-6
@#13 Georgia 30-24 ot
=#3 Florida St 35-37

Georgia Tech started out as a half-way decent team, playing a bit better each week against increasingly decent teams. But the Yellow Jackets were nothing special, as was shown pretty definitively by the losses to Duke and North Carolina, their worst performances.

But then something happened and Georgia Tech decided to start playing like one of the nation's very best teams. This stretch lasted for five games. Wins over Pitt, Virginia, and North Carolina State weren't about to convince anyone that the Wreck were for real, but beating Clemson 28-6 turned some heads, and beating Georgia showed they were for real. Sure, Clemson's backup QB threw two pick-sixes, and Georgia knew they weren't in the SEC final by then, but the wins were real.

The Yellow Jackets were the latest in a line of teams who had their chance to beat Florida State and couldn't quite do it. The run of great games ended there, too. Interestingly it was the offense that excelled early in the run, and the defense later. Is this the new normal for the team? It will have to be if they want to beat Mississippi State, because the team of the first half of the season would have been killed by the Bulldogs.

Key Injuries

Georgia Tech's passing game takes on new significance against Mississippi State, but leading receiver DeAndre Smelter is going to miss the game. He has twice the receiving yards as the #2 receiver for the Yellow Jackets. Also missing is Tony Zenon, the #5 running back and #4 receiver. The Yellow Jackets also lost their #6 running back a few weeks ago. Luckily they have a lot of running backs. Mississippi State starting safety Kendick Market (torn Achilles') will miss the game.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Mississippi State's season: +4 wins; Georgia Tech's season: +3 wins
Mississippi State's momentum: -2 wins; Georgia Tech's momentum: +0 wins
Mississippi State won final game: NO; Georgia Tech won final game: NO
Mississippi State glad to be there? yes; Georgia Tech glad to be there: YES
Mississippi State time zones from home: 0; Georgia Tech time zones from home: 0;
Mississippi State coaching situation: stable?; Georgia Tech coaching situation: stable

Both teams added several wins to their record in 2014 compared to 2014, though Mississippi State's season took a turn for the worse at the end. They end up in the Orange Bowl, not a bad place to be, but it's more of a goal for an ACC team than an SEC team, so we think Georgia Tech will feel a little better about landing here despite losing their last game (if they'd won, they'd be here anyway—and that might apply to Mississippi State too). Dan Mullen is on many teams' short lists of coaches they'd like to hire, for example Michigan, but he hasn't gone anywhere as of this writing. I doubt many teams are yearning to hire Paul Johnson to implement the triple-option. Wouldn't that be something if Michigan hired him instead?

Final analysis

Mississippi State's bad pass defense and good red zone defense explains why they have a penchant for giving up yards but not points. Teams can pass the ball down the field when the field is wide open, but when it closes down in the red zone, those same plays aren't open. It's like they play prevent defense all the time.

None of this really helps the Yellow Jackets get in the end zone. Mississippi State's weakness on defense—the pass—is Georgia Tech's weakness as an offense. True, they don't do it very often and if they passed more they would be better than #123 in the nation, but Mississippi State's per-attempt pass defense isn't nearly as bad. And though it might help them get down field, they still have to score when inside the 20; the Bulldogs have the best red zone defense in the country, while Georgia Tech is only #88 in red zone conversions...and their field goal kicker is not very good. Not only that, but their top receiver is probably out of the game, too. This isn't adding up well for the Wreck.

There's also the perennial issue of whether teams that have more time to prepare for the triple-option do better against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets had some big bowl collapses in coach Paul Johnson's tenure that made the phenomenon apparent, and since then we've looked back at Tech's games where teams had just 9 or more days to prepare; the Yellow Jackets lose a lot more of those games than they normally would. For bowl games it seems to be intensified if they're facing a quality team with a good defense, such as 2008 LSU (38-3) or 2009 Iowa (24-14). They also lost to Air Force (14-7) and Utah (30-27 OT) before getting a bowl win over a sour, infighting USC team in the 2012 Sun Bowl. Last year they lost to Ole Miss making it one win out of six attempts for Johnson. This year Duke had 2 weeks to prepare and won their game.

What is Georgia Tech's ace in the hole? The only way we see them winning this game is based on their play in the 2nd half of the season being so remarkable. If they can play like that team, then even a bit of shift due to preparation time might not matter that much. The Wreck would be a 5.5 point favorite over the Bulldogs if they played like they have the last 6 games (7.5 if the Bulldogs do, too). The average bowl game "shift" has been 5.9 points away from the Strength estimate—and 7.5 points away from the Vegas line—so even if they play at top form, the extra prep time might cancel that. So much for the ace in the hole, but it makes them a live underdog. If the game goes into overtime, though, Georgia Tech is "stuck" in the red zone the rest of the way. So while staying close seems a possibility, winning is a hard sell.

Georgia Tech's offense vs. Mississippi State's defense will be a fun thing to watch as they mix the run and the pass in the triple option, to balance using their bread and butter vs. trying to take advantage of the Bulldogs' Achilles' heel. It won't be as effective without Smelter. And in the end the other side of the equation—Dak Prescott and co.—should be what puts the Bulldogs on top. They'll probably score what they have to in order to win, like FSU did.

Prediction: Mississippi State 35, Georgia Tech 30

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December 16, 2014 at 09:35 AM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014-2015 Fiesta Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Boise State vs. Arizona

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Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona
Time: Wednesday, December 31 at 4:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#20 Boise State Broncos (11-2) vs. #10 Arizona Wildcats (10-3)

The Fiesta Bowl confounds people by having two events in 2014—one on New Year's Day, and now this one on New Year's Eve. Here we find the Boise State Broncos back where they upset Oklahoma in one of the greatest ever college football games in 2007.

Vegas line/spread: Arizona by 3 1/2 (over/under 68)

The Wildcats were favored by a field goal and that has edged up to 3 1/2 points; the game is expected to be high scoring, though the over/under has dropped back from 69 to 68.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3 Spread
Boise State	40%	44%
Arizona	60%	56%

Arizona wins 3 of 5 game comparisons with Boise, and it doesn't change too much against the spread. Arizona isn't judged a powerhouse by the Strength power rating—they're only #28, far below their top ten ranking with the Committee. But that's enough to be favored over #34 Boise State. So in relative terms, the Committee roughly agrees with our power rating. Note that we are giving Arizona partial home field advantage for playing in-state.

Strength power rating: #28 Arizona 38, #34 Boise State 32
Median power rating: Arizona 40-31 Offense-limited power rating: Arizona 38-32

Adjusted scoring rankings
Boise State Offense vs. Arizona Defense: #13 vs. #38
Arizona Offense vs. Boise State Defense: #29 vs. #75

Arizona is a 6-point favorite by Strength, with some home field cooking added in. With both offenses better than the defenses they'll be facing, the score is naturally expected to be high. Boise's discrepancy is larger (#13 offense, #75 defense) than Arizona's (#29, #38). Taking each team's median performance yields a bigger margin for the Wildcats.

Yardage analysis: #27 Boise State 37, #46 Arizona 34
using yards per point: Arizona 35, Boise State 31

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Boise State total Offense vs. Arizona total Defense: #24 vs. #73
Arizona total Offense vs. Boise State total Defense: #34 vs. #48

Interestingly the teams' defenses almost swap rankings when we move from points to yardage. Now Arizona has a defense ranked in the 70s while Boise's looks reasonable. The offenses don't change much but now Boise State is the favorite, expected to gain 475 yards of total offense to Arizona's nearly 450. Using those estimates Boise is about a 3 point favorite.

The team that gains the most yards doesn't always win, however: it depends on how well they typically convert yards to points (or prevent that conversion). Arizona is particularly good at preventing the yardage to points conversion and they come out on top after that consideration.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Arizona 36, Boise State 30

Arizona has average special teams but that fact gives them an advantage over Boise State, who is ranked pretty low by ESPN's FPI for special teams. This adds another 2 points to Arizona's estimated win margin, which now matches the Strength power rating.

When Boise State has the ball

Boise State rushing offense: #28

Arizona rushing defense: #73

Jay Ajayi is one of the nation's top ball-carriers, and he had another big year—1,689 yards to be exact, and 25 touchdowns. QB Grant Hedrick added 563 net years. Arizona's rush defense isn't great and the Broncos will probably have over 200 rushing yards.

Boise State passing offense: #38

Arizona passing defense: #78 per att: #52

Grant Hedrick completed 71% of his attempts for 3,387 yards and 22 touchdowns. Other than the 13 interceptions, those are great numbers. Six players top 300 receiving yards led by Thomas Sperbeck with 678. Again, Arizona gives up a lot of yards and Boise may have around 260.

The Wildcats have 12 picks on the year, not a lot but Hedrick has to be careful. What they do well is rush the quarterback, with 37 sacks this year. Boise has given up 27 so they'll face some pressure.

When Arizona has the ball

Arizona rushing offense: #41

Boise State rushing defense: #30

How curious: a Rich Rodriguez team that has a pedestrian running game! After two years of Kadeem Carey nearly gaining 2,000 yards, the running game is less important, and Nick Wilson leads with "only" 1,289 yards, with Terris Jones-Grigsby adding 528. Boise's sound defense might hold them to around 150 yards.

Arizona passing offense: #32

Boise State passing defense: #97 per att: #48

Anu Solomon was a good enough passer to make a pass-first team out of the Wildcats. He's thrown for 3,458 yards and 27 touchdowns with just 7 picks. Cayleb Jones (902 yards) is the top target. Against Boise State's defense Solomon might throw for almost 300 yards.

Boise State has a lot of interceptions this year (20), with Darian Thompson having 7 of his own. They also have 39 sacks (Kamalei Correa has 10), and Arizona has had trouble there, to the tune of 32 this season. So while Solomon should gain a lot of yards through the air, he may be on the run a lot.

Boise State's season (11-2)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (8)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (2) to losing teams (0)

@#9 Mississippi 13-35
Colorado St 37-24
@Connecticut 38-21
UL-Lafayette 34-9
@Air Force 14-28
@Nevada 51-46
Fresno St 37-27
Brigham Young 55-30
@New Mexico 60-49
San Diego St 38-29
@Wyoming 63-14
Utah St 50-19
Fresno St 28-14

Boise State started the season as they often do: facing a tough Power Conference opponent on the road. This time it was Ole Miss, and they picked the wrong team, as the Rebels were one of the best in the nation this year, especially early on.

They didn't linger on the loss, beating Colorado State, UConn, and ULL before losing against Air Force. Again, they rebounded with a string of wins and after they'd defeated Fresno State for the 2nd time they were 11-2, ranked by the Committee, and Fiesta Bowl-bound with a stunning 8 wins over bowl teams. Granted, they aren't the top bowl teams, but very few other squads can make the same claim.

Arizona's season (10-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

UNLV 58-13
@UTSA 26-23
Nevada 35-28
California 49-45
@#2 Oregon 31-24
#24 USC 26-28
@Washington St 59-37
@#14 UCLA 7-17
Colorado 38-20
Washington 27-26
@#22 Utah 42-10
#14 Arizona St 42-35
=#2 Oregon 13-51

The early knock on Arizona was that they were beating subpar competition and barely escaping with the win. That talk stopped after they beat Oregon at home. But once Arizona had a loss of their own, that win was excused as the result of Oregon missing a few offensive linemen. It was clear that if they wanted to get in the Playoff they'd need to beat Oregon twice, a pretty heady task.

Arizona's loss to USC was excusable, too, coming on a missed field goal after an amazing comeback, but UCLA beat them and seemingly ended their Pac-12 title hopes. The Wildcats pressed on, beating Washington by a point, clubbing Utah senseless, and edging rival ASU to get a rematch with Oregon. It wasn't close this time, but at least they'd earned the right to try.

Key Injuries

Boise State doesn't have many new injuries. A few Arizona players are questionable and starting center Steven Gurrola will definitely miss the first half due to suspension. Ask Oregon how important those missing lineman are; they were the sole cause of the Ducks' loss to the Wildcats, right?

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Boise State's season: +3 wins; Arizona's season: +3 wins
Boise State's momentum: +2 wins; Arizona's momentum: -1 win
Boise State won final game: yes; Arizona won final game: NO
Boise State glad to be there? YES; Arizona glad to be there: YES
Boise State time zones from home: 0; Arizona time zones from home: 0;
Boise State coaching situation: stable; Arizona coaching situation: stable

Both teams had better seasons than last year when they both finished 8-5 (Boise was 8-4, Arizona 7-5 pre-bowl). Boise State finished stronger, winning eight in a row. Arizona was up and down—then back up again, and down again at the end. Boise is certainly glad to be at the Fiesta Bowl and Arizona is, too, given that beating Oregon would have put them in the Fiesta Bowl anyway, most likely. The question is whether the huge loss stays with them.

Final analysis

Boise State had a great season, but this is not the Boise State team that beat Oklahoma. It's certainly nothing like the 2009-2011 teams. This year's squad beat 8 bowl teams, but none of them ranked in the top 50 in Strength.

At the same time, this Arizona team isn't as good as Oklahoma was in the 2007 game. The Wildcats can be a great team, but it varies game to game—the Oregon series is a good indication of their range. They can beat UTSA by a field goal or beat Utah by 31. This makes them vulnerable to an upset, or Boise State vulnerable to a blowout.

But most of the time Arizona plays teams pretty close, whether good or bad. Boise State will be pumped to be back in the Fiesta Bowl, Arizona will be pumped about their successful season, all things considered. With both teams on a fairly even keel, we'll go with our power rating and yardage estimates that concluded Arizona would win by almost a touchdown.

Prediction: Arizona 37, Boise State 31

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December 16, 2014 at 12:38 AM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

December 15, 2014

2014 Peach Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Mississippi vs. TCU

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Peach Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia
Time: Wednesday, December 31 at 12:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#9 Mississippi Rebels (9-3) vs. #6 TCU Horned Frogs (11-1)

One of the best things to happen to the bowl season this year—other than the Playoff—is that the Peach Bowl got its proper name back. This year's contest is a doozy, too, with two top ten teams in the final Committee rankings.

Vegas line/spread: TCU by 3 (over/under 56.5)

The Horned Frogs are an early 3 point favorite in what is seen to be an average scoring contest. The line hasn't made any moves lately.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3 Spread
Mississippi	43%	51%
TCU	57%	49%

As good as Mississippi was this year, TCU might have been better; at least they were according to the game comparison system which favors them in the majority, even against the spread. TCU ranks #2 in our All-Division Strength power rating, with Ole Miss a solid #6.

Strength power rating: #2 TCU 30, #6 Mississippi 26
Median power rating: TCU 28-28 Offense-limited power rating: TCU 28-26

Adjusted scoring rankings
Mississippi Offense vs. TCU Defense: #27 vs. #14
TCU Offense vs. Mississippi Defense: #2 vs. #1

As noted, TCU is #2 and Mississippi #6; that makes TCU a 4 point favorite (not based on ranking, but on rating). Using the team's median game scores these are the #1 and #2 teams in the country, and it's too close to call (TCU by a nose). In other words, if the teams play their median average rather than mean average performance, it will go into overtime.

The marquee matchup here is TCU's offense, #2 in the nation in adjusted scoring, vs. Mississippi's #1 defense. The other side of the coin isn't bad, either, but what everyone wants to see is how well TCU can move the ball against the Rebels, and how much they can slow down the Frogs.

Yardage analysis: #3 TCU 36, #12 Mississippi 28
using yards per point: Mississippi 25, TCU 22

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Mississippi total Offense vs. TCU total Defense: #28 vs. #29
TCU total Offense vs. Mississippi total Defense: #2 vs. #11

When it comes to yardage TCU is favored by a bit more; we expect them to have around 470 yards of total offense vs. Mississippi's 410. Just using those numbers that translates to a 6 point advantage for the Horned Frogs. TCU is still #2 on offense but Mississippi's defense is a bit more generous with the yards, ranking #11 in total defense adjusted for opponents. Now the more even matchup is the Ole Miss offense vs. TCU's defense.

If we base our score estimate on how many yards the teams gain/yield per point scored/allowed, then Mississippi surprisingly becomes the favorite. Their defense gives up a point for each 32 yards allowed, a fantastic number that outweighs the fact that TCU only needs 11 yards per point scored. A team really has to outgain Mississippi to be projected to beat them.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Mississippi 25, TCU 22

Mississippi gets another boost from special teams, where they outrank TCU #55 to #77. It doesn't quite change the forecast, though.

When Mississippi has the ball

Mississippi rushing offense: #46

TCU rushing defense: #21

Mississippi's running game was adequate, using a committee of running backs led by Jaylen Walton who has 583 yards and 5 TDs. TCU has a strong rushing defense and could hold Ole Miss to around 130 yards.

Mississippi passing offense: #22

TCU passing defense: #59 per att: #28

Bo Wallace had a few big mistakes, it's true, but he was productive, throwing for over 3,000 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions—one of them the famous LSU end-zone pick. He spread the ball among several players: Vince Sanders, Evan Engram, Laquon Treadwell, and Cody Core totalled over 2,500 receiving yards and 19 TDs (note that Treadwell is out for the year). They should have around 275 yards against TCU's fairly pedestrian pass defense. The Horned Frogs rank 88th in raw yardage, but remember they're in the Big Twelve and face teams like Baylor; on an adjusted basis they're #59, and on a per-attempt basis #28.

Ole Miss will have to work hard for their passing yards, though. TCU is #3 in the nation in interceptions (23) and #23 in sacks (34). True, part of those numbers are due to facing heavy passing teams, but that also means the defense is very experienced facing passing teams. DB Chris Hackett leads with 6 interceptions and James McFarland has 6 sacks. Mississippi has allowed 26 sacks, and we've all seen Wallace get intercepted.

When TCU has the ball

TCU rushing offense: #32

Mississippi rushing defense: #13

The Horned Frogs were a running machine not long ago, back before the air-raid transformation. They can still run the ball well, and Aaron Green has 854 yards and 8 TDs while Trevone Boykin adds 642 net. BJ Catalon has nearly 500 to go with his 10 touchdowns. Mississippi's rush defense is good, probably the best TCU has faced (Kansas State is close) and they'll have about 150 yards in an average game.

TCU passing offense: #5

Mississippi passing defense: #12 per att: #8

Trevone Boykin made a quantum leap under the new offense, throwing for 3,714 yards and 30 touchdowns with just 7 picks. Josh Doctson (959 yards), Kolby Listenbee (709), and Deante Gray (564) are his top targets. Again, Ole Miss has a near-top ten pass defense per-game, and #8 per-attempt, so expect about 320 yards from TCU.

Mississippi also has a pick-happy defense, with 19 interceptions this season, almost half of them coming from Senquez Golson. Their pass rush isn't quite so strong (25 sacks) and TCU's protection has been reasonable (20 allowed).

Mississippi's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (7)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

#20 Boise St 35-13
@Vanderbilt 41-3
UL-Lafayette 56-15
Memphis 24-3
#1 Alabama 23-17
@Texas A&M 35-20
Tennessee 34-3
@#23 LSU 7-10
#19 Auburn 31-35
Presbyterian 48-0
@Arkansas 0-30
#7 Mississippi St 31-17

Mississipp started out like gangbusters and kept getting better. They crushed Boise State—the Broncos finished in the top 25 and are in the Fiesta Bowl—and demolished Vanderbilt 41-3 on the road. ULL had no chance (they finished 8-4 though) and the Rebels beat Memphis 24-3—the same Memphis that lost to UCLA by a touchdown and finished 9-3.

But at the time none of those opponents were really established. It took beating Alabama to show that this Mississippi team was having a season as good as State was, maybe even better. They handled Texas A&M and wiped out Tennessee; at 7-0, they were #3 but were certainly playing like #1. Every game had been excellent.

It only took a small step down to lose to LSU—or rather, a big step down on offense, while the defense remained sky-high. Falling to LSU probably affected the team and they lost at home to Auburn the next week with the defense looking human for the first time. The team played the same—good, not great—against Presbyterian. Finally the offense and defense both hit bottom against Arkansas in a 30-0 loss.

The rivalry game brought out the best in Ole Miss and they trounced Mississippi State 31-17 at home, playing the way they did before things fell apart. The question is, was that a one-time deal due to the rivalry, or does it carry over to their bowl game?

TCU's season (11-1)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (6)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (1) to losing teams (0)

Samford 48-14
#25 Minnesota 30-7
@SMU 56-0
Oklahoma 37-33
@#5 Baylor 58-61
Oklahoma St 42-9
Texas Tech 82-27
@West Virginia 31-30
#11 Kansas St 41-20
@Kansas 34-30
@Texas 48-10
Iowa St 55-3

TCU played very well in its first three games, but it was hard to gauge whether they were much improved from last year's 4-8, or whether Samford, Minnesota, and SMU just sucked. It turned out that yes, TCU was far, far better, but SMU did suck. Minnesota, on the other hand, wasn't bad, and TCU beat them much worse than Ohio State did later on.

The Oklahoma win put them on the map; in retrospect, Oklahoma's later fall from grace probably cost the Big Twelve a spot in the College Football Playoff. What cost TCU that spot, ultimately, was the last 11 minutes of the Baylor game, where they coughed away a 21 point lead and lost, 61-58, in one of the wildest games ever seen. Remarkably, instead of feeling sorry for themselves they took it to Oklahoma State and then scored 82 on Texas Tech. West Virginia gave them all they could handle, but they blasted Kansas State 41-20. In a pattern you can see on their offense chart, they alternated insanely-good offensive games with merely solid one, and against Kansas they needed every one of the 34 points they got. No matter: next week they bombed Texas 48-10. If beating Iowa State 55-3 counts as the "off" week then the bowl game will be something to see.

In the latter half of the season they led Baylor each week in the Committee's rankings, even moving up to #3 in the week prior to the Playoff announcment. After slaying Iowa State on Saturday morning it seemed they'd locked up their spot, but no one else lost and Ohio State won 59-0. That triggered a series of events that led the Frogs to fall to #6, out of the Playoff boundaries and behind Baylor. They dealt with their loss to Baylor well; how will they respond to this?

Key Injuries

Ole Miss offensive line starter Aaron Morris will miss the bowl game due to a torn ACL; that's the only major new injury for the Rebels. But others are still affecting them; they lost key receiver Laquan Treadwell over a month ago, and the loss of linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche was a blow to their defense from the LSU game onward. TCU has a few questionable players: receiver Kolby Listenbee and BJ Catalon, the team's #2 receiver and running back. We assume most "questionable" players will play given the timeframe.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Mississippi's season: +2 wins; TCU's season: +7 wins
Mississippi's momentum: -3 wins; TCU's momentum: +1 win
Mississippi won final game: YES; TCU won final game: YES
Mississippi glad to be there? yes; TCU glad to be there: maybe
Mississippi time zones from home: 0; TCU time zones from home: 1;
Mississippi coaching situation: stable; TCU coaching situation: stable

Both teams have reason to be pleased with this year, and some reason for disappointment. Ole Miss improved greatly from last year, but it wasn't as great as it could have been as they went 3-3 down the stretch. TCU went from 4-8 to 11-1 but won't get the chance to prove they're the best team in the country. Both made statements with their last win but this bowl game is little more than a consolation prize for what they wanted: a spot in the College Football Playoff. For Mississippi the realization that they wouldn't be there came much earlier than it did for TCU, but it still has to haunt them.

So far neither coach has been lured away anywhere else.

Final analysis

Two great teams, one with perhaps the best offense in the country, the other with perhaps the best defense. One comes out narrowly ahead in our score-based power rating, the other wins by the same margin in one of our yardage-based projections.

We figure neither team will blow the other out; they're both just too good, and that would be a disappoinment. Neither team deserves to end on such a bad note. TCU can score in reams, but Ole Miss' defense shouldn't let it get out of hand. Ole Miss' size and speed on defense will be better than anything TCU has faced, and if they knock Boykin out of the game it might be a replace of Alabama-Texas with Colt McCoy, as backup Matt Joeckel isn't available either. But short of that, shutting down the Horned Frog offense also seems very unlikely.

We turn, as we often due, to the amateur psychology petri dish that is college football. Which team will have a better attitute? TCU has a big challenge: recover from the disappointment of falling out of the College Football Playoff. Sometimes a team loses a game and that sets them on a bit of a downward spiral. But this is different: the team didn't do anything wrong on the field. They didn't blow it themselves—unless you are referring to the Baylor game, and they responded to that loss very well. Responding to the Committee's slight ought to be very easy for a bunch of 20-year-olds: you play your best to show them they made a mistake. You have something to prove.

Ole Miss faced a similar disappointment as they lost 3 of 4 after racing to a 7-0 start. After the loss to LSU they stumbled further and ultimately gave up against Arkansas—they had no reason to win that game. Given a reason—a rivalry game—they rediscovered who they are. TCU is not exactly a rival (they played a few times in the 80s, 50s, and 40s) and while the bowl game is important, something tells me the Mississippi State game was more important.

It's interesting that two teams who thrashed their final opponent still need to 'overcome' something. The truth is that both teams ought to play an excellent game and fight hard. We just give the slight edge to TCU for having more to prove, and more to fight for.

Prediction: TCU 30, Mississippi 23

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December 15, 2014 at 10:39 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014 Foster Farms Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Maryland vs. Stanford

View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule here

Foster Farms Bowl in Santa Clara, California
Time: Tuesday, December 30 at 10:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Maryland Terrapins (7-5) vs. Stanford Cardinal (7-5)

It's not the Rose Bowl but the "Foster Farms" Bowl does pit the Big Ten vs. the Pac-12.

Vegas line/spread: Stanford by 14 (over/under 47.5)

The Cardinal are a huge favorite (by bowl game standards) and the oddsmakers are calling for a very low scoring game. The line didn't really move in the 2 weeks leading up to the game.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -14 Spread
Maryland	22%	46%
Stanford	78%	54%

Based on the Strength power rating, Stanford wins a huge share of the game comparisons, approaching 4 of 5. But against the spread the advantage tilts to the Terrapins. Stanford ended up 23rd and Maryland 51st in Strength. Note that we're giving Stanford full home field advantage for playing a stone's throw from Palo Alto while Maryland travels across the entire country.

Strength power rating: #23 Stanford 27, #51 Maryland 13
Median power rating: Stanford 29-12 Offense-limited power rating: Stanford 27-13

Adjusted scoring rankings
Maryland Offense vs. Stanford Defense: #42 vs. #2
Stanford Offense vs. Maryland Defense: #101 vs. #64

Stanford is a big favorite according to our power rating. The offense/defense breakdown tells the story, and shows why the game is expected to be low-scoring: Stanford doesn't score much, and they don't let anyone else score much, either. They rank 101st in offense and 2nd in defense. Marylands's rankings are more conventional but their advantage when on defense can't overcome their disadvantage on offense. Add in home field advantage for the Cardinal and it's a 13.4 point spread (the scores round to 27-13), or 17 when using median sample.

Yardage analysis: #20 Stanford 31, #82 Maryland 10
using yards per point: Stanford 28, Maryland 12

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Maryland total Offense vs. Stanford total Defense: #60 vs. #1
Stanford total Offense vs. Maryland total Defense: #87 vs. #91

The adjusted yardage breakdowns don't do Maryland any favors, since by yardage the Terps' defense is pretty bad and only matches Stanford's non-productive offense. Meanwhile the Cardinal are the #1 team in the nation in yielding the fewest yards, adjusted for opposition.

We expect Stanford to have over 400 yards against Maryland's defense while giving up under 250; that translates into a 3-touchdown margin. It's not much different when we use yards-per-point as our guide, in which case Stanford wins by a bit less, 16 or 17.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Stanford 27, Maryland 14

Good news for Maryland: their special teams is a lot better than Stanford's, almost three points better. One reason is kicker Brad Craddock who has hit 18 of 19 attempts this year. Fittingly we give Maryland a field goal's worth to narrow the yardage estimate, which now almost exactly matches the Strength power rating's score projection. This one rounds down to 13 instead of up to 14.

When Maryland has the ball

Maryland rushing offense: #76

Stanford rushing defense: #9

QB CJ Brown led the team with 569 net rushing yards, and two other backs totaled over 700 yards. Doesn't sound like much, and it's not, but they faced pretty tough defenses so while the Terps rank #106 in raw numbers they're #76 when corrected for strength of opposition. They face some really tough opposition in Stanford's top 10 rush defense, and might be held well under 100 yards.

Maryland passing offense: #52

Stanford passing defense: #4 per att: #1

Sixth-year senior CJ Brown passed for 2,083 yards with 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, similar to last year's numbers, in his first healthy season in a long time. His top target, the dynamic Stefon Diggs (654 yards) was lost for the regular season; Deon Long is #2 with 554. Brown really faces a challenge against Stanford's #4 pass defense; the Cardinal are #1 in lowest per-attempt yardage. Maryland won't have much more than 150 yards if the averages hold. The possible return of Diggs for the bowl game gives them some hope, though.

Unfortunately they have other problems to worry about. Stanford has a great pass rush, notching 40 sacks this year. Meanwhile the Terrapins have allowed 30 sacks. That's a bad combination, and Brown will have the likes of Henry Anderson and Peter Kalambayi (13.5 combined) coming at him all night.

When Stanford has the ball

Stanford rushing offense: #64

Maryland rushing defense: #72

Stanford's running game is a far cry from the recent days of Toby Gerhart and Tyler Gaffney. This year Remound Wright is the leader with 552 yards. Barry Sanders is 3rd with 304 yards on 54 carries, in case you were wondering (I was). Stanford will probably have around 175 yards as their mediocre ground game meets Maryland's mediocre defense.

Stanford passing offense: #81

Maryland passing defense: #107 per att: #42

Kevin Hogan hasn't quite lived up to the Andrew Luck standard—or the expectations he set as a freshman—but he's having an improved junior year with 2,603 yards and a 17:8 TD:int ratio, and completing 66%. Ty Montgomery is the offense's best player, and he leads all receivers with 604 yards. Again, as unproductive as the Cardinal offense is, the Terrapin defense is weaker, and Hogan should have around 250 yards.

Maryland does have a decent pass rush (30 sacks) and Stanford's protection hasn't been like it has in the past several years. They've already allowed 22 sacks, so Maryland's pressure might give them some trouble.

Maryland's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

James Madison 52-7
@South Florida 24-17
West Virginia 37-40
@Syracuse 34-20
@Indiana 37-15
#4 Ohio State 24-52
Iowa 38-31
@#18 Wisconsin 7-52
@Penn State 20-19
#8 Michigan St 15-37
@Michigan 23-16
Rutgers 38-41

Maryland only beat one bowl-eligible team all year—Penn State, by a point—and lost to 5 bowl-bound teams including three that finished in the top 25.

The Terrapins unfortunately might have played their best game in week one, beating James Madison by 45. After that they barely edged USF and lost to West Virginia. The wins over Syracuse and Indiana were pretty good, but neither finished with a winning record. Their first big test was Ohio State and they failed, losing in a blowout. They rallied to beat Iowa but laid a big egg at Wisconsin. They beat both Penn State and Michigan, which should be a boast-worthy accomplishment, but it really isn't this year. They lost big to Michigan State, and fell to Rutgers after blowing a big lead.

Maryland's chart seems to lean downward, and in terms of their game play they did get worse as the year progressed. Hope for the Terps to make a big statement waned each week. Looking at the number of players lost for the year, especially on defense, it becomes evident that injuries wore them down. A big one was the loss of Stefon Diggs, but he may come back to play against the Cardinal.

Stanford's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

UC-Davis 45-0
#24 USC 10-13
Army 35-0
@Washington 20-13
@Notre Dame 14-17
Washington St 34-17
@#15 Arizona St 10-26
Oregon St 38-14
@#2 Oregon 16-45
#22 Utah 17-20 2ot
@California 38-17
@#14 UCLA 31-10

Astonishly Stanford only beat two bowl-bound teams in the whole season, Washington near the beginning and UCLA at the end. They failed in five other chances including four losses to top 25 teams.

The pollsters gave Stanford high hopes but it was clear early on that their offense wasn't up to the task of competing in the Pac-12. Just take a look at the offense/defense charts to the left. They could hold USC to 13 points, but only scored 10 themselves. They shut out Army, but only scored 35 points. They beat Washington 20-13, then lost to Notre Dame 17-14 and already their national title hopes were gone. The defense was enough to beat the bad Pac-12 teams but the offense wasn't strong enough to score more than 10, 16, or 17 against the good ones.

Finally, though, they put things together against UCLA for their best performance of the season—on the road, even. Where this spark came from I don't know, but it's encouraging that they could win a game that should have meant so little to them (it kept UCLA out of the Pac-12 title game, though).

Key Injuries

Maryland has been plagued by injuries all season—nothing new for the Terps, but most were on defense; they didn't have to play a linebacker at quarterback this year (though they did lose backup QB Caleb Rowe to an ACL tear). And they probably will get leading receiver Stefon Diggs back for the game, which is much-needed good news for the passing game as they face Stanford's D. The Cardinal might be without Ty Montgomery, the offense's best player; he's listed as questionable.

Update: Montgomery will miss the game. That hurts Stanford's passing game and return game quite a bit.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Maryland's season: +0 wins; Stanford's season: -3 wins
Maryland's momentum: -1 wins; Stanford's momentum: -1 win
Maryland won final game: NO; Stanford won final game: YES
Maryland glad to be there? maybe; Stanford glad to be there: maybe
Maryland time zones from home: 3; Stanford time zones from home: 0;
Maryland coaching situation: stable; Stanford coaching situation: stable

Maryland went 7-5 both in their last year in the ACC and their first year in the Big Ten. Stanford fell from 10-2 (regular season) to 7-5, a major disappointment for them. The losses mounted for both teams in the 2nd half of the season, but Stanford ended on a much better note than Maryland.

Neither team is probably too thrilled about the Foster Farms Bowl, but Maryland didn't have nearly the expectations Stanford did. All the same, Stanford doesn't have to really travel for this bowl so they might as well play another home game. As minor bowls go, they're probably glad they didn't end up on the east coast.

Final analysis

The analysis pretty much matches up with the rather large, 2-touchdown line. Our main projections show Stanford by 13.6 or 13.4, either rounding up to 14 or down to 13, so it's close to the Vegas' odds either way. Sometimes when there's a large line, the favored team doesn't take the game seriously, or doesn't want to be there, and they lay an egg against a fired-up underdog. We don't think this is one of those cases.

Stanford had an awful season by their recent standards, but they improved at the end of the season, playing some of their best football. That's not a sign of a team that's packed it in and just wants the year to end. Meanwhile Maryland doesn't show signs of a fired-up underdog; they're more like a beaten down dog, riddled with injuries and limping their way into the home stretch. They couldn't even hold their big lead on Rutgers in the finale.

Maryland faces challenges when on offense, specifically Stanford's defense. The Terps aren't that great against an average defense and now they're facing one of the nation's best. Getting Stefon Diggs back should give them at least some offensive threat, but that doesn't help them much against Stanford's pass rush.

Stanford has its own challenges on offense. They will be missing Ty Montgomery, who is almost as important to them as Diggs is to Maryland. But they managed to score 31 on UCLA without him. And that leads us back to attitude. Stanford finished strong and hasn't been playing like a disappointed team. Maryland looks weary.

So while the big-spread games are often ripe for upset—and it's harder to beat the spread in a low-scoring game—Stanford's A+ attitude gets a gold star and we think the Cardinal will roll over the Terps.

Prediction: Stanford 30, Maryland 9

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December 15, 2014 at 02:50 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014 Belk Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Georgia vs. Louisville

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Belk Bowl in Charlotte, North Carolina
Time: Tuesday, December 30 at 6:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

#13 Georgia Bulldogs (9-3) vs. #21 Louisville Cardinals (9-3)

This is the earliest game of the bowl season to feature two ranked teams.

Vegas line/spread: Georgia by 7 (over/under 57.5)

The oddmakers liked the Bulldogs by 6 1/2 in early odds; that quickly moved to 7 and that hasn't changed by game day. An average scoring game is expected, though the over/under did go up a few points to 57.5 the morning before kickoff.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -6.5 Spread
Georgia	76%	64%
Louisville	24%	36%

The Strength power rating heavily favors Georgia in this game; they're favored straight up in 3 of 4 game comparisons and almost 2/3 against the early line. The reason? Georgia ranks 4th in the nation despite their 3 losses, while Louisville is outside the top 25 at #34.

Strength power rating: #3 Georgia 39, #34 Louisville 24
Median power rating: Georgia 41-22 Offense-limited power rating: Georgia 37-24

Adjusted scoring rankings
Georgia Offense vs. Louisville Defense: #5 vs. #27
Louisville Offense vs. Georgia Defense: #37 vs. #15

Georgia seems to have all the bases covered: they have the better offense, the better defense, and they win each offense-defense breakdown. Thus the 15-point spread in the Strength power rating's projection. The Median projection widens it to 19 points because, as we'll see, Georgia's top 6 games are pretty amazing and the median includes one of them (averaging the 6th and 7th best game).

Yardage analysis: #10 Georgia 28, #23 Louisville 20
using yards per point: Georgia 31, Louisville 23

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Georgia total Offense vs. Louisville total Defense: #19 vs. #14
Louisville total Offense vs. Georgia total Defense: #46 vs. #20

By yardage gained/yielded, Louisville is a top 25 team and Georgia is top ten, not top five. Hence the score estimate derived from projected yardage is bit tighter, 8 points instead of 15. Georgia's adjusted total offense and total defense are both around #20, while Louisville's defense ranks even better at #14 though their offense lags a bit. We expect Georgia to have around 400 total yards of offense in the game while Louisville settles for a bit less than 350.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Georgia 33, Louisville 21

Georgia's special teams outclass Louisville's according to ESPN's FPI, to the tune of around 4 points. That pumps the yardage-based estimate back up to near the score-margin-based one.

When Georgia has the ball

Georgia rushing offense: #9

Louisville rushing defense: #7

Todd Gurley was making a serious run at the Heisman trophy—for about five games. Then he was suspended for four games for taking cash for autographs, returned for one game, and tore his ACL. He finished with 911 yards and 9 TDs in just 6 games. Nick Chubb took over and had 7 100+ yard games en route to 1,281 for the season, with 12 TDs. They did just as well with Gurley out, but it might be different when facing Louisville's top ten rush defense. We estimate they'll have about 210 rushing yards; for comparion, they had 210 and 207 against Missouri and Arkansas, the #18 and #9 rush defenses, both without Gurley.

Georgia passing offense: #79

Louisville passing defense: #27 per att: #24

Hutson Mason has done more this year than hand off the ball. He has over 2,000 passing yards and, more importantly, a 68% completion rate and a 20:4 TD:interception ratio. Chris Conley has been the top target in the low-key passing attack, with 577 yards and 7 touchdowns. Against Louisville's sound pass defense the Bulldogs might have around 190 yards.

Louisville offers more problems that just good defense—they're also #1 in interceptions with 25 this year. Most are due to one man—Gerald Holliman, who leads the nation with an incredible 14. That's more than 98 FBS teams have. Also, the Cardinals are #9 in sacks with 39. Good for Georgia that Mason is careful with the ball and that the offensive line has allowed only 15 sacks this year, but they'll be tested on both fronts every time they go back to pass.

When Louisville has the ball

Louisville rushing offense: #68

Georgia rushing defense: #43

Louisville's running game consists mostly of Brandon Radcliff and Michael Dyer, who combine for over 1,100 yards and 16 TDs. They took over from Dominique Brown who started strong and faded to just 378 yards. They might have up to 150 yards against Georgia's rush defense.

Louisville passing offense: #39

Georgia passing defense: #5 per att: #6

Will Gardner threw for 1,669 yards and 12 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions before he was lost for the year against Boston College. Reggie Bonnafon (850 yards, 5:3) took over but was hurt before the final game, leaving #3 Kyle Bolin (416 yards, 3:1) at the helm vs. Kentucky. Interestingly, Louisville's offense was best in its last three games, scoring 38, 31, and 44.

Georgia's pass defense won't be very forgiving and the Cardinals will be lucky to have much more than 200 yards. The Cardinals have also given up 36 sacks, with Bonnafon sacked an incredible 21 times vs. 117 pass attempts.

Georgia's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (3)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

#17 Clemson 45-21
@South Carolina 35-38
Troy 66-0
Tennessee 35-32
Vanderbilt 44-17
@#16 Missouri 34-0
@Arkansas 45-32
=Florida 20-38
@Kentucky 63-31
#19 Auburn 34-7
Charl. Southern 55-9
#12 Georgia Tech 24-30 ot

Georgia's season was kind of crazy if you look at their chart. The Bulldogs played two kinds of games: one kind where they were far and away the best team in the country, and another where they were simply an above average team. The average of those types of games—there were six of each type—is how Georgia ended up #4 in Strength despite losing three games. In four games they were off the charts or nearly so on offense; in another two, the defense was that good. It never happened in the same game.

The first game, beating Clemson 45-21, was off the charts offensively, as the Tigers allowed just one other opponent over 20 points. Next a pedestrian loss to South Carolina. Troy, 66-0, is another offensive marvel. Two average wins followed (Tennessee by 3, Vandy 44-17). Beating Missouri 34-0 is clearly off the charts defensively, just as scoring 45 on Arkansas is. Naturally the Bulldogs followed with the loss to Florida. Game 9, Kentucky: 63 points. Then holding Auburn (their 3rd top 25 victim) to 7 points? Both insane. Two games later, the loss to Georgia Tech.

So we see that Georgia is capable of being the best team in the nation, or a simple above-average team. The six great games average to about 86.7, or about 12 points better than current #1 Alabama. The six pedestrian games average to 56.5, or worthy of #31—not far below Louisville. It seems that either one team or the other always shows up, not the "average" of the two. The question is how to tell which one appears in a given game.

Louisville's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (1)

Miami FL 31-13
Murray St 66-21
@Virginia 21-23
@Florida Int'l 34-3
Wake Forest 20-10
@Syracuse 28-6
@#17 Clemson 17-23
North Carolina St 30-18
#3 Florida St 31-42
@Boston College 38-19
@Notre Dame 31-28
Kentucky 44-40

Louisville tried all season to be in the thick of the ACC and national race but never quite got there. They resumed where they left off the 2013 season, with another win over Miami. They blew out Murray State and all was well...until they blew it at Virginia. The next three wins over unimportant foes didn't matter much, nor did it matter that they were 5-1.

Clemson was another chance to get back in the ACC mix but they fell to the Tigers 23-17. Two games later they had the ultimate challenge: beat Florida State. They were up to the task in the first half, amassing a 21-0 lead but FSU battled their way back and won 42-31. To their credit, despite some terrible quarterback issues (see When Louisville Has the Ball) they won their last three, playing great offense all the way. The defense wasn't as great, but you can't have it all. Though they never became relevant on the national stage or the ACC race, they beat Notre Dame, beat Kentucky, and finished in the Committee top 25, and that ain't bad.

Key Injuries

Will Gardner is out for the year for Louisville, and backup QB Reggie Bonnafon has been out a few weeks. He's cleared to play, but Kyle Bolin might start again. For Georgia, Todd Gurley of course remains out.

Update: Georgia defensive MVP, LB Leonard Floyd will miss the game with shoulder surgery.

Update2: Michael Dyer is out (academics) for Louisville.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Georgia's season: +1 win; Louisville's season: -3 wins
Georgia's momentum: -1 win; Louisville's momentum: -1 win
Georgia won final game: NO; Louisville won final game: YES
Georgia glad to be there? NO; Louisville glad to be there: yes
Georgia time zones from home: 0; Louisville time zones from home: 0;
Georgia coaching situation: stable; Louisville coaching situation: stable

It might not seem like it, but Georgia did better than last year, and Louisville did worse. Somehow it seems like Georgia had the disappointing year, and Louisville did well, but that's relative to each program's overall expectations. It's also the reason we say Louisville is glad to be here (at least somewhat) while Georgia is not proud of its trip to the Belk Bowl.

If Missouri had lost to Arkansas, Georgia would have played for the SEC title. Instead, Missouri won—on Friday—and Georgia lost to Georgia Tech the next day. Disappointment? I would guess so. And if that's how they react to not being the SEC championship game, how are they going to react to being in the Belk Bowl?

Final analysis

Georgia has the power to absolutely blow Louisville away. If they play their best—no, not even their best, just play like the average of their best six games—they win by almost 30 points. In fact, *any* of Georgia's top six games beats Louisville's best game. Of their six worst games, four would beat the average Louisville performance, too. Georgia has played well coming off a loss, but in those cases, a national title or an ACC title were still within reach.

For their part Louisville had 4 outlier games on the upside; they need one of those performances against the Bulldogs. They have a good enough defense to slow down the run and force passing situations, at which time they can use their great pass rush and hope for interceptions, since turnovers are the great equalizer. Maybe having ex-Georgia D.C. Todd Grantham on their side will help, maybe not. On offense it's even trickier. They need the old Michael Dyer back, since Georgia's rush defense isn't quite as good as its pass defense. They need whoever is playing at quarterback to have some good luck. The team needs some luck.

Mostly they need the "good" Georgia team to not show up, because then it's all over. It's a 50/50 chance they get trounced soundly. But why would the "good" Georgia team show up to play Louisville? It didn't show up for South Carolina, or for Florida, or for Georgia Tech—and those are rivals. In each case, the Bulldogs were coming off monster wins and/or their foe was reeling. South Carolina had been crushed by Texas A&M already. Florida was having terrible troubles. Georgia Tech—well, the ACC's no good, right? So why take Louisville seriously in a bowl you don't care about?

We don't think the "good" Georgia is going to make the trip to Charlotte. But the "bad" Georgia beats Louisville 2/3 of the time anyway—just not by as much. For an upset the "really bad" Georgia would have to show up, or the "really good" Louisville, and, well this is getting ridiculous. We take the Bulldogs, because we can't justify the upset, but in a very close game.

Update: We've changed our mind and are taking the upset. What made us reconsider is Leonard Floyd's absence. Not just that the Bulldogs won't have their defensive MBP, but that he had shoulder surgery now so he'd be in good shape for next year. So, is this bowl game against Louisville so unimportant that players are thinking about next year instead? If that's the attitude the rest of the Georgia team has, then they can be beat.

Update2: We said Michael Dyer had to be the "old" Michael Dyer for Louisville to win. Instead he'll be the "invisible" Michael Dyer since he's academically ineligible. We're not changing our pick again, so we're stuck with Louisville sink or swim. After seeing the end of the Central Michigan game this one doesn't look so outlandish.

Prediction: Louisville 31, Georgia 30

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December 15, 2014 at 01:12 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (4)

December 14, 2014

2014 Music City Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Notre Dame vs. LSU

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Music City Bowl in Nashville, TN
Time: Tuesday, December 30 at 3:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5) vs. #23 LSU Tigers (8-4)

Like many bowl games, this one features teams that had bigger hopes for the season. Not everyone can be in the Playoff!

Vegas line/spread: LSU by 7 1/2 (over/under 52.5)

Louisiana State is a solid favorite in early odds. The line has remained basically the same for weeks, though some had LSU by 8 on game day. The over/under has been very steady, too.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -7.5 Spread
Notre Dame	76%	63%
LSU	24%	37%

LSU ranks much higher in our Strength power rating then Notre Dame, so much so that even with the touchdown+ spread accounted for the Tigers still claim the majority of game comparisons.

Strength power rating: #13 LSU 32, #33 Notre Dame 19
Median power rating: LSU 31-21 Offense-limited power rating: LSU 32-20

Adjusted scoring rankings
Notre Dame Offense vs. LSU Defense: #25 vs. #3
LSU Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense: #40 vs. #60

LSU ranks 20 spots higher than Notre Dame so it's not a surprise that they're projected to win by almost two touchdowns according to the Strength power rating. The secret is defense: LSU ranks 3rd in adjusted scoring defense, while Notre Dame is just #60. That means LSU's marginal offense can still score while bottling up the stronger Irish offense. At least, in most cases that's how it will go.

Yardage analysis: #16 LSU 28, #34 Notre Dame 20
using yards per point: LSU 29, Notre Dame 19

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Notre Dame total Offense vs. LSU total Defense: #25 vs. #3
LSU total Offense vs. Notre Dame total Defense: #55 vs. #60

The yardage estimate is a bit narrower; the teams' offense and defense rankings hardly change between the score-based and yardage-based numbers, except that LSU's offense isn't great at generating yardage. It's the only ranking of the four that changes, but its enough to narrow the spread from 13 to 8. LSU is expected to have around 400 total yards and Notre Dame about 340.

LSU stops opponents from scoring so effectively that their defensive yards-per-point is astronomical, around 23. It's not due to turnovers since LSU is only avereage in that department. Part of it is good red zone defense. In any case, the margin expands to 10 points based on yards-per-point.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: LSU 30, Notre Dame 19

Both teams have decent special teams, but LSU is a bit better and it nudges the yardage estimate up to an 11 point margin.

When Notre Dame has the ball

Notre Dame rushing offense: #54

LSU rushing defense: #22

Notre Dame doesn't have a great running game but Tarean Foster has managed 816 yards. LSU rush defense is pretty sound and the Irish might have just 125 yards on the ground.

Notre Dame passing offense: #16

LSU passing defense: #3 per att: #3

Everett Golson was supposed to have a breakthrough comeback season, and in some ways he did: he has 3,355 yards and 29 touchdowns, but also 14 interceptions and a middling 60% completing rate. There's no shortage of targets; William Fuller is the top receiver with 1,037 yards (14 TDs) while Corey Robinson, Chris Brown, and CJ Prosise add another 1,500 yards combined. LSU counters with one of the best pass defenses in the nation, no matter how you cut it. The Irish should have over 200 yards through the air but not very much more.

Lucky for the Irish, the Tigers have few interceptions (10) and sacks (19), but with Golson's turnover propensity he'll still have to be careful, and he's been sacked 27 times.

Brian Kelly has announced that Malik Zaire will start against the Tigers, so that could shake things up a bit.

When LSU has the ball

LSU rushing offense: #20

Notre Dame rushing defense: #47

Freshman Leonard Fournette hasn't quite lived up to the hype—he would need to have at least 1,500 yards by now to have done so—but he has 891 yards and 8 touchdowns, not bad for a true freshman. Terrance McGee and Kenny Hilliard add another 976, but Hilliard is out for the season as of mid-November. Notre Dame's rush defense is fair and the Tigers should have around 210 yards.

LSU passing offense: #110

Notre Dame passing defense: #91 per att: #66

A stable quarterback situation is an anathema to LSU; the Tigers reject it like the plague. Hence, right after Zach Mettenberger got good last year, he had to leave. Anthony Jennings (1,460 yards, 10 TDs, 7 int) is more their style: plays well, but not well enough to be secure in the job. There always has to be another QB in the mix, and Brandon Harris (452 yards, 6:2) has taken his share of snaps. Both can run the ball but Harris does that better.

Travin Dural (758 yards) started fast but hasn't made people forget last year's great receivers, and the LSU passing game is pretty weak. Luckily for the Tigers so is Notre Dame's pass defense, so LSU could approach 200 yards through the air. Another problem is that Notre Dame does intercept a lot of passes (16 so far), though their pass rush isn't feared.

Notre Dame's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

Rice 48-17
Michigan 31-0
=Purdue 30-14
=Syracuse 31-15
Stanford 17-14
North Carolina 50-43
@#3 Florida St 27-31
@Navy 49-39
@#15 Arizona St 31-55
Northwestern 40-43 ot
#21 Louisville 28-31
@#24 Southern Cal 14-49

Notre Dame's season started with a lot of promise and ended with a thud. It's understandable given how their schedule actually worked out, but it's also clear the team played worse as the season progressed

The win over bowl-bound Rice was one of their best performances, 2nd only to beating Michigan 31-0. At the time that one looked even better. The Irish were 5-0 after beating Stanford and touted as a Playoff contender, but after struggling with North Carolina they were only a borderline top 25 team in Strength. But that's what Florida State was, too, so keeping that game close wasn't a surprise at all, and it didn't really indicate that the Irish were a top team.

That was revealed plainly a few games later as Arizona State pulled away at the end, then Northwestern stunned the Irish in overtime. Louisville added to the hurt and after USC put the bomb on them, the Irish had lost 5 of their last 6 games. The defense began the year playing as well as the offense but at the midpoint that stopped happening.

In the end the Irish lost four games to Committee top 25 foes after beating 7 unranked teams. Michigan didn't make a bowl game and Stanford was overrated. Florida State wasn't last year's Florida State. It makes sense that, if they were going to lose a bunch of games, it would happen down the stretch. That doesn't explain the Northwestern loss, and the magnitude of the USC loss, except for hangover disappointment.

LSU's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

=#18 Wisconsin 28-24
Sam Houston St 56-0
Louisiana-Monroe 31-0
#7 Mississippi St 29-34
New Mexico St 63-7
@#19 Auburn 7-41
@Florida 30-27
Kentucky 41-3
#9 Mississippi 10-7
#1 Alabama 13-20 ot
@Arkansas 0-17
@Texas A&M 23-17

LSU came back to beat Wisconsin in the opener and two shutouts later it looked like the Tigers might make another NCAA championship run. But Mississippi State rained on that dream, and two games later Auburn stomped it to death.

Faced with salvaging their season, the Tigers went into the swamp and pulled out an unlikely 30-27 win, and two games later they did the same at home vs. Ole Miss. They had one last shot at greatness but fell short of beating Alabama in overtime. They had their own hangover loss at Arkansas; this time they were the shutout victims rather than the conquerors. The Tigers finished with a gut-check road win at Texas A&M.

The season has to disappoint fans who are used to double-digit wins before the bowl season starts, but you have to admire the team's resiliency. They came back from being down 24-7 against Wisconsin; they responded to the Auburn beatdown by beating Florida on a last second field goal; and at 7-4 they felt it mattered to get the last win and did so on the road. The season isn't what they wanted but it looks like they still want to play the game. The play of the defense in the last 5 games has been incredible, but the offense hasn't been up to snuff lately.

Key Injuries

LSU recently lost #3 running back Kenny Hilliard; without him they had just 36 yards against Arkansas but 384 vs. Texas A&M. Center Elliot Porter also missed the A&M game and will probably miss the bowl game.

The Irish lost lineman Jarron Jones and freshman safety Drue Tranquill in late November; neither will play in the bowl. Also, starting lineman Sheldon Day, and 3 more safeties including starter Max Redfield are questionable. Most of these guys will end up playing, but if they're all out it would be a disaster for Notre Dame's reeling defense. Update: The questionable players have all been upgraded to probable, but Christian Lombard (OL) will not play due to back injury.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Notre Dame's season: -1 win; LSU's season: -1 win
Notre Dame's momentum: -5 wins; LSU's momentum: +0 wins
Notre Dame won final game: NO; LSU won final game: YES
Notre Dame glad to be there? NO; LSU glad to be there: no
Notre Dame time zones from home: 0; LSU time zones from home: 1;
Notre Dame coaching situation: stable; LSU coaching situation: stable

Both teams had a worse 2014 than 2013, but for Notre Dame it happened in a much worse way, losing 5 of their last 6. This isn't the kind of bowl either team expects to be in, but here they are. Who will make the best of the situation?

Final analysis

These teams went the same direction seasonally, but emotionally it looks like they parted ways. Notre Dame keeps sagging further into a corner while LSU continues to take the bull by the horns. The Tigers don't always succeed but they try, try again whereas it looks like Notre Dame has given up, especially on defense.

Neither team really wants to be here. It's not a high profile bowl—the teams playing in it are the only reason it's on the map this year. Last year 8-5 Ole Miss beat 7-6 Georgia Tech here. The year before? Hometown favorite Vanderbilt beat NC State. In 2011 it was Mississippi State topping Wake Forest.

But certainly Notre Dame was going into a much more high profile game in the finale vs. USC. Meanwhile LSU traveled to Texas A&M. Both were good tests of each team's resolve, and LSU passed and Notre Dame failed.

Is this related to coaching? I'm sure Brian Kelly is a better coach than Les Miles in many ways, but you look at him and he is always worried that something is going to go wrong. Les Miles doesn't care if something *is* going wrong right in front of him. That attitude has to be contagious to the players. Notre Dame players fear mistakes, then they make them; then they fear making more mistakes. LSU players make mistakes, then they forget about it and go on to the next play or the next game.

Maybe Kelly can rally the troops—starting Malik Zaire might shake them out of their rut, but he wasn't exactly spectacular in the limited action he's seen (9 of 20, 170 yards). And maybe LSU will be overconfident but after an 8-4 year that doesn't seem likely. What does seem likely is for the current trends to continue, and Notre Dame to suffer another ugly bowl defeat.

Prediction: LSU 38, Notre Dame 17

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.

December 14, 2014 at 09:32 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014 Texas Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Arkansas vs. Texas

View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule here

Texas Bowl in Houston, Texas
Time: Monday, December 29 at 9:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Arkansas Razorbacks (6-6) vs. Texas Longhorns (6-6)

Two proud programs trying to get back to their former greatness; one will finish with a winning season, but one will end a loser.

Vegas line/spread: Arkansas by 7 (over/under 44.5)

Arkansas is a solid favorite to win a low-scoring game; for weeks the line wobbled around 6 but ultimately edged up to 7 on game day, while the over/under did the same around 45.5 but finished down a bit at 44.5.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -6 Spread
Arkansas	69%	57%
Texas	31%	43%

Arkansas' game ratings are much higher than Texas', so much that they even win the majority of game-comparisons against the early 6-point spread. The Razorbacks are a lofty #13 in the Strength power rating while Texas is a middlin' #41.

Strength power rating: #13 Arkansas 24, #41 Texas 12
Median power rating: Arkansas 21-15 Offense-limited power rating: Arkansas 24-11

Adjusted scoring rankings
Arkansas Offense vs. Texas Defense: #28 vs. #9
Texas Offense vs. Arkansas Defense: #105 vs. #5

Even giving Texas partial home field advantage for playing in-state, Arkansas is a 12 point favorite by the Strength power rating. It boils down to Texas' terrible offense, which ranks #105 among all teams of all divisions, while Arkansas has a near-top 25 offense. Both teams are in the top 10 in adjusted scoring defense, hence the low score prediction.

The median rating uses only the median game performance for each (or the 2 middle performances, since the sample for both teams is 12 games). In that case it's a lot closer, since Texas had some terrible games that get discarded by this method.

Yardage analysis: #18 Arkansas 16, #31 Texas 13.5
using yards per point: Arkansas 20, Texas 15

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Arkansas total Offense vs. Texas total Defense: #43 vs. #6
Texas total Offense vs. Arkansas total Defense: #91 vs. #9

The estimate based on yardage is a lot tighter, translating into a 3 or 4 point win for the Razorbacks. By yardage, the defenses are again very strong and the offenses weaker, but Arkansas' offense is a bit weaker. By this estimate, Arkansas would have around 300 yards of total offense and Texas about 25 fewer. When accounting for the teams' tendencies to convert yardage to points (and prevent opponents from doing so) the margin rebounds a bit to 5 points.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Arkansas 22, Texas 14

Arkansas has decent special teams, Texas not so much. Supplementing the offensive/defensive yardage estimate with special teams play adds over 3 points to Arkansas' projected victory margin. The best comparison here is Arkansas ranking #3 in kickoff returns while Texas is #125 in coverage; but note that Arkansas' ranking is due to Korliss Marshall's 30-yard average, and Marshall is no longer with the team. Without him they average 22.0 yards, which would be #43, still good enough considering the Longhorns' coverage but not quite as stark of a comparison.

When Arkansas has the ball

Arkansas rushing offense: #27

Texas rushing defense: #57

Bret Bielema has the Arkansas running game knocking on the door of being a top 25 unit. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins each have over 1,000 yards on the season, with carries almost exactly split between them. Texas has had trouble against the run for years now and the Razorbacks will probably have around 200 rushing yards.

Arkansas passing offense: #84

Texas passing defense: #1 per att: #2

Brandon Allen is much improved this year for Arkansas, raising his completion rate to 56% from last year's 49.6%, his yardage to 2,125 (from 1,552) and his TD:int ratio improved from 13:10 in 2013 to 18:5 so far this season. Keon Hatcher and Hunter Henry combine for over 1,000 receiving yards. However, all of this improvement is probably wasted since they're facing arguably the nation's best pass defense. The Longhorns are #12 in raw yardage but #1 when corrected for the fact that they face the most pass-happy teams in the country (Baylor, Kansas State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, and TCU are all in the top 25 in pass yardage). On a per-attempt basis Texas' defense is #2. Arkansas should surpass 100 yards, but not by much.

Texas also intercepts the ball a lot (15 times so far) and has a great pass rush (39 sacks, w/8 players who have 2 or more sacks). Arkansas doesn't give up a lot of sacks (13) but some of that is due to not passing very much.

When Texas has the ball

Texas rushing offense: #81

Arkansas rushing defense: #5

Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray have shared time in the backfield and combined for over 1,300 yards and 13 TDs, but Arkansas has a smashmouth rushing defense that should bottle them up. Expect only about 75 yards from the Longhorns.

Texas passing offense: #71

Arkansas passing defense: #33 per att: #43

Tyrone Swoopes was thrust into a starting role early in the season; given the circumstances it's no surprise he's struggled a bit, with 2,352 yards on the season and a 13:10 ratio. John Harris (1,015 yards) has been his top target while Jaxon Shipley has 571 this year. Arkansas has a good pass defense, too, and Texas probably won't have much more than 200 yards. The Razorbacks aren't exceptional in terms of interceptions or their pass rush.

Arkansas's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (2)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

@#19 Auburn 21-45
Nicholls St 73-7
@Texas Tech 49-28
Northern Illinois 52-14
=Texas A&M 28-35 ot
#1 Alabama 13-14
#13 Georgia 32-45
UAB 45-17
@#7 Mississippi St 10-17
#23 LSU 17-0
#9 Mississippi 30-0
@#16 Missouri 14-21

Arkansas was a good team stuck in a great conference, and an insane division of that conference. The Razorbacks played 7 games against year-end top 25 teams, 5 of them in the SEC West and two from the East.

Not only did they beat two top 25 teams, they shut them out by a combined 47-0. That's when people finally started considering the Razorbacks a good team, but there were signs all year long. Maybe not with the 45-21 loss to Auburn, and Nicholls State is so bad that beating them 73-7 is roughly comparable to losing to Auburn 45-21. But the 21 point Texas Tech win and especially, beating Northern Illinois 52-14 are impressive.

The overtime loss to Texas A&M and the 1-point loss to Alabama showed they could compete with anyone, and they made Georgia and Mississippi State work for their wins, too. Finally with the LSU and Mississippi State games they got over the hump, but couldn't sustain it on the road against Missouri. Overall they did play a lot better in their home games but they weren't terrible on the road. And it was the defense that spurred their biggest wins and kept them within striking distance of Alabama and Mississippi State.

Texas's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (2)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (0)

North Texas 38-7
Brigham Young 7-41
#14 UCLA 17-20
@Kansas 23-0
#5 Baylor 7-28
=Oklahoma 26-31
Iowa St 48-45
@#11 Kansas St 0-23
@Texas Tech 34-13
West Virginia 33-16
@Oklahoma St 28-7
#6 TCU 10-48

Texas started the year with a solid win over North Texas but they were embarrassed at home in game 2 by BYU, 41-7. That loss looked worse as the Cougars lost 4 straight, but the team that beat Texas was easily top 25 worthy before losing their quarterback. That bar should be twice as high if corrected for BYU's schizophrenia, and Texas gains over a full point in our power rating.

In any case, they played UCLA a lot tighter and the Kansas shutout gave them three respectable games out of four. They lost to Baylor but held them to 28 and they almost upset Oklahoma. It didn't matter to fans, of course, that they'd only played one bad game—they were 2-4 at the midpoint. Worse, they struggled with Iowa State and lost to Kansas State by the same score they'd beaten the Jayhawks.

The tide only turned with a solid win over Texas Tech, and an upset of West Virginia gave them a win over a bowl-bound team. They controlled Oklahoma State for another one—and bowl eligibility—but they weren't up to snuff against TCU, who beat them even worse than BYU had.

Throughout it all the defense played great with three exceptions: BYU, Iowa State, and TCU. The same can't be said about the offense.

Key Injuries

Arkansas will be without a couple of defensive backs for the game, including starter Rohan Gaines; that gives Texas some hope since the passing game will be their primary mode of moving the ball. The Razorbacks will likley be missing tight end AJ Derby, too; he's the #3 receiver, but Arkansas' pass game is probably irrelevant anyway. Also, #3 running back and top kick returner Korliss Marshall hasn't played since October and is no longer with the team, making the Razorbacks' kickoff return team merely average.

For Texas, Jaxon Shipley is questionable, and that would be a big blow considering they need the passing game to be at 100%. Update: Shipley has been upgraded to probable. But Caleb Bluiett is probably out on the defensive line.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Arkansas's season: +3 wins; Texas's season: -2 wins
Arkansas's momentum: +0 wins; Texas's momentum: +2 wins
Arkansas won final game: no; Texas won final game: NO
Arkansas glad to be there? YES; Texas glad to be there: yes
Arkansas time zones from home: 0; Texas time zones from home: 0;
Arkansas coaching situation: stable; Texas coaching situation: stable

Arkansas improved from last year's 3-9—and 4-8 the year before—to reach bowl eligibility again, while Texas dropped from 8-4 to 6-6 under first-year coach Charlie Strong. For a while it looked like Texas wouldn't make it to 6 wins but they did better in the 2nd half of the season. So there is probably sort of a sense of relief among the coaches and players that they made it, and playing in-state isn't a bad thing.

The Razorbacks haven't been to a bowl since 2011, and they're relatively close to home, too, so their fans are very relieved that it appears the losing seasons are over in Bret Bielema's 2nd year.

Final analysis

When Arkansas is on offense, it will probably look like this: they won't be able to throw the ball against Texas at all. The Longhorns will stack the line to try to stop the Arkansas running game, but won't be able to. In other words, Arkansas will be one-dimensional but will still have success moving the ball.

When Texas is on offense, they probably won't be able to run at all against Arkansas. The Longhorn passing game isn't great but it's what they have to work with and while the Razorback defense is good there, too, Texas can move the ball.

So we'll see Arkansas' passing shut down and Texas' ground game shut down, making it a battle of one-dimensional offenses. But Arkansas' running dimension is better than Texas' passing dimension, and that makes them the favorite. The question is how much they should be favored by.

Our various numeric estimates range from 3.5 to 12 points. We have to consider the possibility that Arkansas could shut out the Longhorns; after all, the Razorbacks shut out two top 25 teams—teams with far better offense than Texas—and Texas themselves got shut out once and held to 7 points twice, by teams with lesser defenses than Arkansas.

But since Arkansas' two shutouts happened when the Razorbacks were playing at home, we assume that won't happen in Houston. In fact, Arkansas has played quite a bit better at home than they do on the road, mostly on offense. So that leads us to pick an even lower-scoring game. With the Razorbacks approaching the bowl game with a bit of hunger that Texas won't have, we're going to pick Arkansas winning by the top of the likely range.

Prediction: Arkansas 13, Texas 3

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.

December 14, 2014 at 07:25 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014 Russell Athletic Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Oklahoma vs. Clemson

View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule here

Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando, Florida
Time: Monday, December 29 at 5:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Oklahoma Sooners (8-4) vs. #17 Clemson Tigers (9-3)

A potentially great matchup that could be impacted by injuries suffered by both teams.

Vegas line/spread: Oklahoma by 5 (over/under 51)

The opening line was a pick'em, but that shifted to Oklahoma by around 3 points, then maybe 6 points before the game was taken off the board. Key injuries to Clemson and Oklahoma were being considered.

The line re-appeared at Oklahoma by 3, with the over/under edging down from 55 to 53. By game day the line grew to Sooners by 5 with the o/u down to 51.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3 Spread
Oklahoma	66%	61%
Clemson	34%	39%

The Strength power rating favors Oklahoma in most game comparisons, straight up, and also against a 3 point spread which will undoubtedly change when the game is back on the board.

Strength power rating: #12 Oklahoma 29, #26 Clemson 21
Median power rating: Oklahoma 32-17 Offense-limited power rating: Oklahoma 29-21

Adjusted scoring rankings
Oklahoma Offense vs. Clemson Defense: #10 vs. #6
Clemson Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense: #59 vs. #22

Oklahoma is more than a touchdown favorite using the All-Division Strength power rating where Oklahoma still ranks near the top ten and Clemson is just outside the top 25. Using the teams' median game performances Oklahoma is a two touchdown favorite; using the median rids Oklahoma of a few extra-poor games and Clemson of a few outliers on the upside.

The matchup of Oklahoma's offense and Clemson's defense will be a battle of top ten units, but Clemson's offense hasn't been better than average on the whole and the Sooner defense is just inside the top 25.

Yardage analysis: #11 Oklahoma 23, #17 Clemson 19
using yards per point: Oklahoma 24, Clemson 20

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Oklahoma total Offense vs. Clemson total Defense: #17 vs. #2
Clemson total Offense vs. Oklahoma total Defense: #71 vs. #24

Using projected yardages the resultant score is a lot lower, this time well under the Vegas over/under. The estimate hardly changes when we look at yards-per-point figures. Again, the numbers reflect a powerful matchup between Oklahoma's offense and Clemson's defense. In the end we expect both teams to be held under 400 yards, with the Sooners having roughly a 30 yard advantage which convert to a 4-point win. A lot of this could be affected by the team's injuries and missing personnel.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Oklahoma 26, Clemson 19

Oklahoma's superior special teams, and particularly Clemson's poor special teams, adds about 3 1/2 points to the Sooners' advantage, making it a full touchdown.

When Oklahoma has the ball

Oklahoma rushing offense: #10

Clemson rushing defense: #4

Samaje Perine burst onto the scene as a freshman and bulled his was to the FBS single-game rushing record, set just the week before by Melvin Gordon. Perine ran for 427 yards against Kansas and totalled 1,579 for the season (21 TDs). Alex Ross adds 564 for the Sooners. Clemson's rushing defense is #4 in the nation (compared to Kansas at #104) so Perine won't be getting 400+ yards—assuming he plays at all, as he was hurt against Oklahoma State. The Sooners should have around 180 yards.

Oklahoma passing offense: #61

Clemson passing defense: #6 per att: #4

Trevor Knight did reasonably well through the Sooners' first 9 games, throwing for 2,197 yards, with 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Certainly, he did better than Cody Thomas did in relief; Thomas completed just 46% with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions as he let RB Perine carry the load.

Knight has been cleared to play for Oklahoma, but leading receiver Sterling Shepard (957 yards) is questionable. Durron Neal is #2 with 508. The Sooners should have around 180 yards against Clemson's tough pass defense. The Tigers don't have a lot of picks (9 on the year) but they have 44 sacks, #5 in the nation. Oklahoma, however, has allowed just 8 sacks all year so it will be quite a battle. Vic Beasley picked up where he left off last year, garnering 11 sacks so far.

When Clemson has the ball

Clemson rushing offense: #86

Oklahoma rushing defense: #24

Wayne Gallman leads Clemson's running game with 714 yards, but Oklahoma's defense is stout against the run and Clemson may be held to around 100 yards.

Clemson passing offense: #50

Oklahoma passing defense: #41 per att: #27

Deshaun Watson was becoming a star after taking over the starting position, but injuries hobbled him at mid-season and an ACL tear has ended his 2014 campaign. He finished with 1,466 passing yards with 14 TDs and just 2 interceptions. Cole Stoudt resumed his starting role and he has 1,573 yards, 6 TDs and 10 interceptions. It's quite a step (back) down for the Tigers. Key receivers Mike Williams and Artavis Scott combine for over 1,700 yards and 12 touchdowns. Using the Tigers' averages, they should expect about 230 yards, but that is probably impacted by Watson's absence.

Oklahoma's defense isn't much better than average at getting interceptions and sacks, but Stoudt throws more picks and has been sacked more than Watson.

Oklahoma's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

Louisiana Tech 48-16
@Tulsa 52-7
Tennessee 34-10
@West Virginia 45-33
@#6 TCU 33-37
=Texas 31-26
#11 Kansas St 30-31
@Iowa St 59-14
#5 Baylor 14-48
@Texas Tech 42-30
Kansas 44-7
Oklahoma St 35-38 ot

Oklahoma played at an amazing level in its first five games: the blowout of underrated Louisiana Tech, blasting Tulsa 52-7, beating Tennessee who is in the top 25 in Strength, and defeating West Virginia on the road. Even the narrow loss at TCU was the work of a top five team.

But after that loss they started to slip, and it happened on defense. Texas scored 26, then Kansas State scored 31 in the upset. The Sooners blasted Iowa State and looked like their former selves but then got blasted by Baylor as Trevor Knight was hurt. After that the offense shifted to run mode and didn't miss too much, but the defensive drop was particularly apparent against Oklahoma State.

Clemson's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

@#13 Georgia 21-45
South Carolina St 73-7
@#3 Florida St 17-23 ot
North Carolina 50-35
North Carolina St 41-0
Louisville 23-17
@Boston College 17-13
Syracuse 16- 6
@Wake Forest 34-20
@#12 Georgia Tech 6-28
Georgia St 28-0
South Carolina 35-17

Clemson lost to Georgia but demolished South Carolina State with Cliff Stoudt starting. Deshaun Watson threw 13 passes in those games and had 4 touchdowns. He replaced Stoudt early in the FSU game but it was just a bit too late and they lost in overtime. Watson led them to 91 points in wins over the Carolinas but was hurt; the Tigers beat Louisville and Boston College with Stoudt but they scored just 40 points total.

The offense continued to dwindle until it hit rock bottom vs. Georgia Tech (6 points), though scoring 28 on Georgia State is even worse. Watson returned on a bad ACL to lead in the win over South Carolina, but he won't be available for the bowl game.

Clemson's defense was strong throughout, with only a few average games sprinkled among the good to excellent ones. Without Watson, they'll need the defense to be at its best.

Key Injuries

Clemson suffered some terrible news when QB Deshaun Watson tore his ACL before the team's final regular season game. He played on it in the South Carolina win and was going to do so in the bowl game but decided to have surgery earlier to insure his availability next fall. The Tigers also may lose two tight ends who combined for around 200 receiving yards this year.

The Watson annoucement made the line vary from 0 points to 3 points to 6 points, but Oklahoma had some potential bad news of its own: record-breaking running back Samaje Perine was questionable for the game, as was leading receiver Sterling Shepard. Bob Stoops thinks both will play, and he just announced quarterback Trevor Knight will be back after missing 3 games for the Sooners. All of this uncertainty caused most sportsbooks to take the game offline and that's where it stands.

Update: Oklahoma's offensive players should all be available, but the Sooners will be missing two senior staters on defense, LB Geneo Grissom and DB Julian Wilson, and offensive lineman Adam Shead may be out. For Clemson tight end Stanton Seckinger is probably out, and more significantly #1 tackler Stephone Anthony is suspended for the 1st half of the game.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Oklahoma's season: -2 wins; Clemson's season: -1 win
Oklahoma's momentum: -2 wins; Clemson's momentum: +1 win
Oklahoma won final game: NO; Clemson won final game: YES
Oklahoma glad to be there? no; Clemson glad to be there: maybe
Oklahoma time zones from home: 1; Clemson time zones from home: 0;
Oklahoma coaching situation: stable; Clemson coaching situation: stable

Both teams were 11-2 last year—10-2 plus a high-profile bowl win—and while Clemson was expected to drop a notch, Oklahoma was supposed to elevate to the next level. Instead, the Sooners dropped 2 games to 8-4 while Clemson fell only to 9-3.

Also, through the season's mid-point Oklahoma was still thinking national title. Clemson started 1-2 and had no such aspirations, though they were hoping to sneak into the Orange Bowl. So while the Tigers finished strong and might want to be here, Oklahoma's season took a bad turn and they never figured on the Russell Athletic Bowl being their ultimate destination.

Final analysis

This could have been a great game—and it might still be fun to watch—but both these teams have seen better days. Oklahoma started out a national title contender and slid to 8-4. Clemson was never quite there but could have finished strong with Deshaun Watson at the helm but he hardly played in the 2nd half of the season—and now he won't play in the bowl game.

That might be the difference. Oklahoma's best quarterback is returning for the game while Clemson's is not available. The Sooners need to have Samaje Perine, and Sterling Shepard, too, or they're much less effective against the Tiger defense.

The game has the potential to be really low scoring, given Clemson's lockdown defense, and their poor offense—exacerbated by Watson's absence. Oklahoma's own defense just isn't the same as it was early in the year, but given Clemson's problems it might not matter much. There could be some sloppy football played when Clemson has the ball.

Trevor Knight was good but not great when healthy; he didn't do much against Baylor, that's for sure. But he isn't the impediment backup Thomas was. If Samaje Perine and Sterling Shepard are indeed back then we favor the Sooners, because at least that gives them a vector to scoring on Clemson's D. The Tigers might not have any way to do so as their offense grinds to a halt.

Oklahoma doesn't want to be in Orlando; Clemson sort of does, just enough to win if Oklahoma doesn't have its key players. But we're assuming everyone plays and the Sooners win a low-scoring, dull game. Mini-update: Since it appears the Sooners have Perine and Knight—and Clemson doesn't have Watson—we stay with our original prediction.

Prediction: Oklahoma 23, Clemson 16

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.

December 14, 2014 at 04:39 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014 Liberty Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Texas A&M vs. West Virginia

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Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tennessee
Time: Monday, December 29 at 2:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Texas A&M Aggies (7-5) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5)

A pretty good test of the Big Twelve vs. the SEC in terms of mid-level conference representatives who both run a version of the air-raid offense.

Vegas line/spread: West Virginia by 1 1/2 (over/under 65.5)

The Mountaineers are just over a field goal favorite in early odds, with a high-scoring game expected. The line held mostly steady until Clint Trickett was ruled out for West Virginia, when it fell from 3 1/2 to 1, settling at 1 1/2 the day before the game. The over/under slid as well, down from a peak of 67 to 65.5.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -3.5 Spread
Texas A&M	54%	60%
West Virginia	46%	40%

Texas A&M's average game rating is higher than West Virginia's but just barely, but their game comparisons come out on top well over half the time, and even more against the spread.

Strength power rating: #22 Texas A&M 32, #25 West Virginia 32
Median power rating: Texas A&M 35-29 Offense-limited power rating: Texas A&M 32-31

Adjusted scoring rankings
Texas A&M Offense vs. West Virginia Defense: #14 vs. #30
West Virginia Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense: #30 vs. #48

There's not a clear-cut favorite since these teams are so close in ranking, #22 to #25; the difference is around a quarter of a point. But the median game rating of each team is very different from the average, and the Aggies are a full 6 point favorite using that method, which cuts out the Aggies' few really bad games and also West Virginia's trio of great performances (see charts below).

West Virginia's adjusted scoring offense and defense both rank 30th. Texas A&M's offense is better than that but their defense is a bit lacking, making for a potentially very even game.

Yardage analysis: #8 West Virginia 48, #47 Texas A&M 31
using yards per point: West Virginia 36, Texas A&M 28

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Texas A&M total Offense vs. West Virginia total Defense: #23 vs. #31
West Virginia total Offense vs. Texas A&M total Defense: #8 vs. #95

When it comes to yardage, West Virginia is king, ranking in the top ten in yardage differential (yards gained minus yards yielded), while Texas A&M is a mediocre #47. Naturally the yardage estimate gleaned from this greatly favors the Mountaineers, by 17 points. By this measure, West Virginia should have over 550 yards of total offense and the Aggies under 450, with a difference of about 130 yards.

West Virginia's offense is #8 in yardage gained (adjusted for competition) and the defense a respectable #31; the Aggies are #23 and a weak #91. But A&M doesn't give up points as easily as yards, and it takes West Virginia a lot of yards to score points. Using the teams' tendencies to score given a certain amount of yardage, the estimate tightens to an 8-point spread.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: West Virginia 33, Texas A&M 32

Yardage projections that use offensive and defensive totals don't take into account special teams play, so it's wise to modify those estimates. We use ESPN's FPI special teams breakdown for that. Texas A&M, it turns out, has the 2nd best special teams in the nation, adding about 4 1/2 points to their estimate, while West Virginia is #111 in the nation, losing around 2 points. The 6 1/2 point swing leaves West Virginia just a 1-point favorite.

When Texas A&M has the ball

Texas A&M rushing offense: #65

West Virginia rushing defense: #68

The Aggies aren't a big running team, with no back topping 500 yards, but Trey Williams and Tra Carson combine for almost 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. West Virginia's rush defense is similarly average and the Aggies should manage over 150 yards on the ground.

Texas A&M passing offense: #11

West Virginia passing defense: #10 per att: #5

Texas A&M used Kenny Hill early but he fell out of favor after the Alabama debacle, got suspended, and hasn't played since. Kyle Allen took over for the last four games, putting up 1,028 yards, 12 TDs, and 6 interceptions. Hill's numbers were stronger with 2,649 yards and a 23:8 ratio. Some of that was against weak competition, but Allen played against those teams, too, and started against Louisiana-Monroe. Hill's rating and QBR are much higher, but Allen's the guy now and he did lead them to the Auburn win. Josh Reynolds, Speedy Noil, and Malcolme Kennedy are the top pass catchers with over 1,800 receiving yards total.

West Virginia's pass defense is very good and Allen will be lucky to get much over 250 yards. The Mountaineers are only average (#65) in raw figures but they face the top passing teams in the country in the Big Twelve, and they correct to #10. In yards per attempt they rank #5. The Mountaineers have a typical interception total (11 so far) and don't get a lot of sacks (18), so that is one less worry for A&M.

When West Virginia has the ball

West Virginia rushing offense: #37

Texas A&M rushing defense: #111

Rushel Shell leads the Mountaineers with 766 yards and Wendell Smallwood adds 645. Against Texas A&M's poor rush defense the team should have nearly 250 yards.

West Virginia passing offense: #8

Texas A&M passing defense: #49 per att: #58

Clint Trickett has had a productive year with the Mountaineers, throwing for 3,285 yards and 18 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, but his play declined as the season progressed. He missed the last game with concussion symptoms and Skyler Howard (483 yards, 5:0) started against Iowa State. Trickett is questionable for the game. West Virginia has one of the nation's best receivers in Kevin White (1,318 yards, 9 TDs) and Mario Alford (888, 10) and Jordan Thompson (514) are great targets, too.

The Aggie pass defense is pretty much average, and they will probably give up over 300 yards. They have only 5 interceptions on the year so they can't count on turnovers to bail them out. They do have 32 sacks on the year, and West Virginia has allowed 28, so getting pressure on the QB is their best bet—as long as the QB is Trickett, since Howard has been sacked only once.

Texas A&M's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

@South Carolina 52-28
Lamar 73-3
Rice 38-10
@SMU 58-6
=Arkansas 35-28 ot
@#7 Mississippi St 31-48
#9 Mississippi 20-35
@#1 Alabama 0-59
Louisiana-Monroe 21-16
@#19 Auburn 41-38
#16 Missouri 27-34
#23 LSU 17-23

Texas A&M's season started off like gangbusters with the big road upset of South Carolina, a win that diminshed over time but remains their best performance, unless it was the next week's 73-3 beatdown of Lamar. The next three wins were impressive, too; the overtime win vs. the Razorbacks looked troubling at the time but Arkansas proved to be better than South Carolina by most measures.

During the 5-0 run Kenny "Trill" Hill was a Heisman hopeful and full heir to Johnny Football's mantle. But then they faced three teams in a row that finished in the top 10 in the Committee's rankings. The Aggies did okay against the Mississippi teams but were bombed 59-0 at Alabama and suddenly Kenny Hill fell out of favor as quarterback and was replaced by freshman Kyle Allen; Hill was suspended for 2 games and never got his job back or even took another snap.

Allen was shaky against Louisiana-Monroe in a tight game but led them to a huge upset of Auburn. They lost to Missouri and LSU in a manner similar to the way they lost the Mississippi teams. In the end the Aggies not only didn't lose to a losing team, but the only teams that beat them finished in the Committee top 25.

West Virginia's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

=#1 Alabama 23-33
Towson 54-0
@Maryland 40-37
Oklahoma 33-45
Kansas 33-14
@Texas Tech 37-34
#5 Baylor 41-27
@Oklahoma St 34-10
#6 TCU 30-31
@Texas 16-33
#11 Kansas St 20-26
@Iowa St 37-24

West Virginia's best game of the first half of the season might have been the opener in which they gave Alabama a scare, losing 33-23. After that they beat Towson, struggled to beat Maryland, lost to Oklahoma, beat Kansas, and edged Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers kicked off the 2nd half of the season with their three best performances: the major upset of Baylor, thrashing Oklahoma State, and nearly adding TCU to the upset list. Unfortunately that spurred a three-game losing streak where they fell to Texas and Kansas State before recovering with a win at Iowa State.

West Virginia's median game performance lags its average because the median throws away the three best performances, and those three really jack up the average rating.

Key Injuries

Clint Trickett might not be available for West Virginia. Skylar Howard has 5 TDs and no interceptions, but has completed only 55%, going 21 of 40 against Iowa State. He does add a running dimenion Trickett doesn't offer, and isn't sacked at nearly the same rate. The Aggies lost starting linebacker Josh Walker to season-ending injury against Missouri.

Update: Trickett will probably be available but Howard is the likely starter.

Update2: Trickett has retired from football due to his concussion injuries.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Texas A&M's season: -1 win; West Virginia's season: +3 wins
Texas A&M's momentum: -3 wins; West Virginia's momentum: -1 win
Texas A&M won final game: no; West Virginia won final game: yes
Texas A&M glad to be there? maybe; West Virginia glad to be there: yes
Texas A&M time zones from home: 0; West Virginia time zones from home: 1;
Texas A&M coaching situation: DC fired; West Virginia coaching situation: stable

West Virginia bounced back from 4-8 to 7-5, and that's the main reason they're going to be glad to be playing in a bowl game. They might have had visions of better things when they were 6-2, but that ship sailed a long time ago. Texas A&M, meanwhile, started 5-0 and had even higher aspirations until those came crashing down.

The Aggies went through a number of changes, including a change at quarterback. When the team leader is benched and then suspended that can have an effect, and the team was lethargic against Louisiana-Monroe and nearly lost the game. But they came out fired up against Auburn and got the job done, so maybe they needed to get a bad game out of their system. They also are changing defensive coordinators between the season finale and the bowl game; can that be a good thing?

Final analysis

A&M's switch from Kenny Hill to Kyle Allen was interesting. Clearly, Hill was put into a bad position facing three top 10 teams in a row. Perhaps the Aggie coaches felt they should have won those games? Or at least, scored more than zero against Alabama—that's understandable. But ignoring the good Hill did and judging him just by those games may have been unfair. His suspension killed any chance he had to regain the job, even as Kyle Allen and the team struggled vs. ULM. The Auburn win was great, but the subsequent games showed they weren't any better with Allen than they had been with Hill.

The firing of the defensive coordinator after the LSU game is another troubling aspect. It introduces a change at a critical time and might just confuse the defense. You could argue that their rush defense can't get any worse, and that's a good point. But changing quarterbacks and defensive coordinators within a few games seems like a sign of instability.

West Virginia isn't as good as any of the teams that beat Texas A&M this year, nor as good as two of the teams the Aggies beat. Meanwhile the Mountaineers beat one team (Baylor) better than the Aggies and lost to clearly inferior Texas. On the other hand, they clearly played better than A&M did against Alabama, if that means anything.

How much depends on whether Clint Trickett plays for West Virginia? It's not clear. He didn't play well in his last few games for the Mountaineers and Skylar Howard nearly led a comeback vs. Kansas State. Howard did okay but not great against Iowa State, so it would be best if both were available. Normally players with concussions have one game off and given the three more weeks off we assume Trickett will play. (Update: wrong—he will not play)

But the main QB issue is Allen vs. Hill. We don't think Texas A&M is better off with Allen than they were with Hill, and in addition West Virginia is going to be a bit more excited to be in a bowl game since they missed one last season. It's enough to give the Mountaineers a fairly close win.

Update: Now that Trickett's absence is established, does that change our view? We still think the main QB change is Texas A&M's. Trickett wasn't doing well in later games and Howard was (mostly) doing ok. He also gives the team a running option that was his main contribution, and avoids sacks well. We are loathe to change our forecasts too much, so in terms of Trickett's absence we leave things be.

Prediction: West Virginia 35, Texas A&M 28

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December 14, 2014 at 02:39 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (2)

2014 Poinsettia Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Navy vs. San Diego State

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Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego, California
Time: Tuesday, December 23 at 9:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Navy Midshipmen (7-5) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (7-5)

The perfect matchup for the Poinsettia Bowl, except maybe for the local hotel association.

Vegas line/spread: San Diego State by 3 (over/under 54)

The oddsmakers picked SDSU by a few points as the early favorite, with the line moving up to 3 by game day.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -2 Spread
Navy	46%	51%
San Diego State	54%	49%

Navy outranks San Diego State in the Strength power rating, #72 to #87, but the Aztecs are playing at home—literally, in their home stadium. That makes them the favorite in most of the game-comparisons, though Navy wins slightly more by the early 2-point spread. San Diego is a Navy town so they'll have fans there, too, but we still consider it an Aztec home game.

Strength power rating: #87 San Diego State 24, #72 Navy 23
Median power rating: SDSU 28-20 Offense-limited power rating: SDSU 24-22

Adjusted scoring rankings
Navy Offense vs. San Diego State Defense: #65 vs. #43
San Diego State Offense vs. Navy Defense: #152 vs. #92

The Aztecs are about a 1-point favorite by the Strength power rating, and the entire margin comes from being considered the home team. Interestingly using the median performance of each team, SDSU is an 8-point favorite. We'll look at the charts later to explain this.

As for the scoring offense/scoring defense matchups (adjusted for opponents of course), the defenses are better than the offenses in both cases. SDSU's decent defense meets Navy's average offense, and Navy's poor defense is better than San Diego State's terrible offense. In this case we use the All-Division Strength power rating, so the rating exceeds the number of FBS teams (128). That's pretty bad, but the Aztec defense almost makes up for it.

Yardage analysis: #62 San Diego State 27, #72 Navy 20
using yards per point: San Diego State 24, Navy 24

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Navy total Offense vs. San Diego State total Defense: #50 vs. #28
San Diego State total Offense vs. Navy total Defense: #102 vs. #80

San Diego State is favored by a touchdown using a yardage-based score estimate. The Aztecs rank 10 positions higher in yardage differential (average total offense minus total defense) and with home field added, they should gain nearly 400 yards during the game while Navy hits around 340.

San Diego State needs a lot of yards to score points, so when the score estimates are based on yards per point, the spread tightens to less than 1/2 point. In this case the game would be an Aztec win in overtime.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: San Diego State 24, Navy 23

As the tiebreaker for the yardage estimate above we'll use each squad's special teams as listed by ESPN's FPI. Both teams have decent special teams but SDSU gains enough to put the estimate just above 1/2 point to round up to a point.

When Navy has the ball

Navy rushing offense: #3

San Diego State rushing defense: #41

Navy has one of the top rushing attacks in the country; it ranks #2 in raw per-game yardage and #3 when corrected for schedule. It's still #11 on a per-carry basis, so it's more than just the volume of carries, though that certainly is there. QB Keenan Reynolds leads the Midshipmen with 1,082 yards; Noah Copeland is #2 with 859 (with an 8.2 average) and Chris Swain adds 574. San Diego State's rushing defense is pretty good but they'll have to prep for the option and the bowl is fairly early in the bowl season. It's 16 days after they learned their bowl destination so they should have a lot of practice against the triple option. But look for Navy to have around 300 rushing yards in the game.

Navy passing offense: #127

San Diego State passing defense: #18 per att: #54

There's not much to discuss here. Only Army throws for fewer yards than Navy, and Keenan Reynolds has just 749 passing yards, hundreds fewer than his rushing total. He has a 5:3 ratio and as a team Navy has 8 TD passes and 4 interceptions. Look for Navy to have fewer than 50 passing yards, though it depends on how much they choose to throw the ball.

When San Diego State has the ball

San Diego State rushing offense: #40

Navy rushing defense: #84

The Aztecs are also a run-based team, just not to the extent of Navy. Donnel Pumphrey is the feature back with 1,705 yards and 19 touchdowns, while Chase Price has 605 and 5. Navy isn't great against the run and SDSU should top 200 yards on the ground.

San Diego State passing offense: #111

Navy passing defense: #72 per att: #90

San Diego State doesn't pass much but compared to Navy they air it out, with QB Quinn Kaehler throwing for 2,016 yards and 9 TDs, but also 10 interceptions. Like Navy, they have no receiver over 500 yards but they have 8 that top 100 yards. Navy's pass defense isn't very good either and the Aztecs should have around 180 yards.

Navy gets about the average amount of interceptions, but their pass rush is feeble—they have just 8 sacks on the year.

Navy's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

#4 Ohio State 17-34
@Temple 31-24
@Texas State 35-21
Rutgers 24-31
Western Kentucky 27-36
@Air Force 21-30
VMI 51-14
San José St 41-31
Notre Dame 39-49
Georgia Southern 52-19
@South Alabama 42-40
Army 17-10

Navy's chart is pretty interesting, and it's easy to see why their median game-rating is lower than their average.

Navy's first three games were about the same quality: the relatively close loss to Ohio State and the road wins over Temple and Texas State were all average performances.

The Midshipmen took a step down, however, and stayed there most of the rest of the year. The three losses to Rutgers, Western Kentucky, and Air Force were poor games, and the wins over VMI and San Jose State weren't much better. The loss to Notre Dame was more of the same, and then, BAM! the 59-19 win over Georgia Southern (not bowl eligible, but 9-3) was far and away their best game. For the next win (South Alabama) they stepped back down to their usual performance level; the offense still excelled but the defense tanked. The Army win was the opposite—terrible on offense but good defense.

So if the median of a 12-game sample averages the 6th and 7th best games, you can see right away that chops off the Georgia Southern game as well as the first three games. That's going to bring the rating down a lot.

San Diego State's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (1)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (5) to losing teams (1)

Northern Arizona 38- 7
@North Carolina 27-31
@Oregon St 7-28
UNLV 34-17
@Fresno St 13-24
@New Mexico 24-14
Hawai`i 20-10
@Nevada 14-30
Idaho 35-21
@#20 Boise St 29-38
Air Force 30-14
San José St 38- 7

It's a good thing San Diego State is playing its bowl game at home, since the Aztecs are a terrible road team. Not only did they lose every road game except New Mexico, but their three worst performances were on the road. These are adjusted for the opponent, so it's not just that they played tough teams on the road. The loss at North Carolina wasn't too bad (4 points), but Oregon State beat them 28-7, Fresno State won 24-13, and Nevada beat them 30-14. They actually did pretty well at Boise State, however.

And it's not like they were fantastic at home. But their three top games were home games (Northern Arizona, Air Force, San Jose State). The defense was sound all year while the offense struggled, but in the 2nd half of the season it started to at least become respectable, scoring 29+ in each of the last four games. This creates an upward slope on their chart that implies the Aztecs were improving in later games. That's hard to prove, but it's true that their last two games were their best efforts and included their only win over a bowl-bound team, Air Force.

Key Injuries

Linebacker Derek Largent may miss the game for San Diego State, while Navy recently lost their backup nose guard. Navy's #2 receiver, Demond Brown, was doubtful with an ankle injury but has been upgraded to probable.

Update: SDSU's Alex Barrett (D-Line) will miss the game with an ankle injury.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Navy's season: -1 win; San Diego State's season: +0 wins
Navy's momentum: +3 wins; San Diego State's momentum: +1 win
Navy won final game: YES; San Diego State won final game: YES
Navy glad to be there? YES; San Diego State glad to be there: YES
Navy time zones from home: 3; San Diego State time zones from home: 0;
Navy coaching situation: stable; San Diego State coaching situation: stable

Navy lost a win from last year but makes up for that by finishing strong after a 2-4 start. Both teams are probably pretty happy to be here; for Navy, it's their bowl tie-in, and San Diego State gets to play at home.

Final analysis

Navy's chart is interesting. Their best game was against Georgia Southern, another triple option team that Navy knows very well how to defend. Their next three best games came at the beginning of the season, and they never had another game as good (except for Georgia Southern). So Navy's median rating might be much more representative of their quality than their mean average.

San Diego State's chart implies a team getting better in later games, but in any case the final two wins seem significant. The first was a 30-14 win over Air Force, a team that beat Navy; Air Force also uses the triple-option offense, and SDSU held the Falcons to 140 yards (they held another, lesser triple option team, New Mexico, to 152 yards). The last win was over San Jose State, a team Navy beat by 10 points—and the Aztecs won by 31.

Navy definitely has the offensive advantage. Neither team passes well so Navy's weakness there is less glaring. And while both teams run the ball well, SDSU can't hold a candle to Navy's ground attack. On defense, though, San Diego State is superior. More pertinent, they have played two triple-option teams and beat both of them, and they have over 2 weeks from the bowl announcement to tune their defense for Navy's attack.

Further, San Diego State plays well at home, over and above what one would expect from home field advantage, and they're at home for the bowl game.

Prediction: San Diego State 31, Navy 22

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December 14, 2014 at 09:55 AM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

2014 Holiday Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Nebraska vs. USC

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Holiday Bowl in San Diego, California
Time: Saturday, December 27 at 8:00 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Nebraska Cornhuskers (9-3) vs. #24 USC Trojans (8-4)

How's this for a classic matchup of historic football powers? These teams have at a minimum 5 national championships each in the modern era.

Vegas line/spread: USC by 7 (over/under 61.5)

The Trojans were a near-touchdown favorite in early odds, with an expectation of a higher-scoring game. The line held pretty steady, with USC a one touchdown favorite a day prior to the game.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -6.5 Spread
Nebraska	32%	55%
USC	58%	45%

Our Strength power rating rates USC higher—#15 to #27—making them the winner in most of the game-comparisons, but not by enough to cover the early 6.5 point spread most of the time. Note that we're giving USC partial home field advantage for playing much closer to home in San Diego.

Strength power rating: #15 USC 34, #27 Nebraska 29
Median power rating: USC 34-30 Offense-limited power rating: USC 34-29

Adjusted scoring rankings
Nebraska Offense vs. USC Defense: #17 vs. #19
USC Offense vs. Nebraska Defense: #24 vs. #47

Our score-margin-based power rating has USC a 5 to 6 point favorite after partial home field advantage is added; they're a 4-point favorite by the teams' median performances. The key to USC's advantage is their defense; the teams' offenses are roughly similar in quality but Nebraska's defense isn't quite up to snuff this year. So while the Cornhusker offense and Trojan defense are well-matched, USC's offense should have an easier time.

Yardage analysis: #26 USC 34, #24 Nebraska 30
using yards per point: USC 31, Nebraska 27

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Nebraska total Offense vs. USC total Defense: #25 vs. #35
USC total Offense vs. Nebraska total Defense: #30 vs. #39

When we look at adjusted yardage totals, the Cornhuskers are actually the better team. Only home field advantage nudges the Trojans over the top by around 20 yards, which in this case translates to a 4-point advantage. We expect both teams to top 400 yards, with USC reaching nearly 450.

But the total yardage can also be translated in a way that takes into account teams' tendency to allow points, or score points, based on yards yielded/gained. Using that, the result is a lower-scoring game but the same margin of 4 points.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: USC 29, Nebraska 28

Since yardage numbers only take offense and defense into account, we can add in each squad's special teams play using ESPN's FPI breakdowns. Nebraska is has one of the best special teams units in the nation, ranking #3 and adding 4.51 points to their cause. USC isn't bad either at #27 and 1.28. In all, that narrows the estimate by 3.24 points, or down to just around a point. USC does have one special teams weakness—kick coverage, and Nebraska's De'Mornay Pierson-El is #3 in punt return yardage and has 3 touchdowns.

Now, the decision to grant USC home field advantage is all the difference in the expected winner of the game.

When Nebraska has the ball

Nebraska rushing offense: #11

USC rushing defense: #34

Ameer Abdullah is one of the nation's top running backs, with 1,523 yards and 18 touchdowns. Quarterback Tommy Armstrong adds 664 net yards. Abdullah can be stopped with effort and a specific game plan to target him, as teams have shown: McNeese State and Michigan State made it a priority to limit his yardage and held him to around 50 yards, but McNeese was taken lightly by Nebraska and the Spartans have the #2 rush defense. USC can't replicate either of those conditions so the Cornhuskers will probably have around 225 yards on the ground.

Nebraska passing offense: #85

USC passing defense: #62 per att: #19

Tommy Armstrong Jr hasn't had a great season but has 2,317 passing yards and 19 touchdowns (11 picks). His 52% completion rate would be great for Georgia Tech. Kenny Bell and Jordan Westerkamp have been consistent targets with nearly 1,400 yards between them. Though USC's pass defense is #112 in raw numbers, it's average on an adjusted basis (they're in the pass-happy Pac-12) and Nebraska should have around 200 passing yards.

USC might have even better luck slowing down the passing game, as they rank in the top 25 on a per-attempt basis. They're not bad at intercepting the ball (13 this season) and have a pretty good pass rush (30 sacks). Nebraska is pretty good with protection (19 sacks allowed). Note that USC's sack figure is boosted by facing so many passing teams, while Nebraska's sacks-allowed total is reduced by passing less frequently; in the end, the two balance each other out.

When USC has the ball

USC rushing offense: #57

Nebraska rushing defense: #49

USC's ground game consists almost completely of Javorius Allen (1,337 yards) and Justin Davis (550). Nebraska actually has a slightly above-average rush defense, despite allowing 408 yards by Melvin Gordon. USC should have around 160 yards.

USC passing offense: #19

Nebraska passing defense: #46 per att: #16

Cody Kessler has rather quietly put together an amazing season at quarterback, completing 71% of his passes for 3,505 yards and a 36:4 TD:int ratio. Those would be Heisman stats if USC had fewer losses; they resemble Marcus Mariota's stats, at least in the passing department. Nelson Agholor (1,223 yards) leads the Trojan receivers and Juju Smith (658) is the #2 target. Nebraska has halfway decent pass coverage but will give up around 280 yards under normal circumstances.

Kessler has been so careful with the ball that Nebraska isn't a big interception threat to him (they have 12 picks on the year). They do have a decent pass rush (28 sacks) compared to USC's brittle protection (30 sacks allowed), so look for the Cornhuskers to try to rattle Kessler as their method of stopping him. Note too that Nebraska's per-attempt pass defense is very solid so the yardage estimate may be too high.

Nebraska's season (9-3)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (5)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (3) to losing teams (0)

Florida Atl 55-7
McNeese St 31-24
@Fresno St 55-19
Miami FL 41-31
Illinois 45-14
@#8 Michigan St 22-27
@Northwestern 38-17
Rutgers 42-24
Purdue 35-14
@#18 Wisconsin 24-59
#25 Minnesota 24-28
@Iowa 37-34 ot

It's crazy to think that this is the kind of season that would get a coach fired, but the Cornhuskers were bored of going 9-3 so a change was made.

All three of Nebraska's losses came to teams in the final Committee top 25. The first, to Michigan State, was a blowout until the Cornhuskers mounted a late comeback to make it look respectible—but they actually had a small chance to win near the end. The Minnesota game was tight, too, but Wisconsin was a blowout and Melvin Gordon made their defense look stoopid.

As for wins, the team started 5-0 with dominant wins over Fresno, Miami, and Illinois, all bowl teams in the end. They beat Rutgers and Iowa, too, though it took overtime for the latter. That's five bowl teams, but their records were 6-7, 6-6, 6-6, 7-5, and 7-5. The teams they lost to were 10-2, 10-3, and 8-4.

Note also the downward slant of the top bars on the chart. As the season continued, it appears that Nebraska's "good" games were less "good" than they were before. Maybe it's just our imagination, or a date fluke, but it mirrors pretty well the decline of Nebraska's expectations during the season.

USC's season (8-4)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (4)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (4) to losing teams (0)

Fresno St 52-13
@Stanford 13-10
@Boston College 31-37
Oregon St 35-10
#15 Arizona St 34-38
@#10 Arizona 28-26
Colorado 56-28
@#22 Utah 21-24
@Washington St 44-17
California 38-30
@#14 UCLA 20-38
Notre Dame 49-14

USC hit an early pothole with the loss to Boston College, but the Eagles proved bowl-worthy and the Trojans only lost to top 25 teams after that. That was little consolation to USC at the time, but in retrospect they have little to be ashamed of.

Clearly the Stanford win was overblown at the time as the Cardinal limped to 7-5, but beating Arizona—even on a missed last-second field goal—looks far better now than it would have pre-season. USC didn't beat another winning team until Notre Dame, and they blew out the Irish—so badly that it's not hard to imagine that the result was more an artifact of Notre Dame's despondence rather than USC's talent.

Still, USC maintained a remarkably good "minimum" performance level; that is, there was never a game where they just bottomed out, either in overall performance or on offense. On defense, the Boston College game ranks pretty low but otherwise they were slightly below average at worst.

Key Injuries

Nebraska has a number of players "questionable" for the bowl game, including two defensive starters, their #4 receiver, and two offensive linemen—one is a starter, and the other is Mark Pelini, Bo's nephew.

Update: Nebraska's offensive line will be without offensive line starters Ryne Reeves and Zach Sterup, as well as backup Pelini. USC now lists a number of defensive players as questionable, and starting nose tackle Antwaun Woods is expected to miss the game.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Nebraska's season: +1 win; USC's season: -1 win
Nebraska's momentum: -1 win; USC's momentum: +0 wins
Nebraska won final game: yes; USC won final game: YES
Nebraska glad to be there? maybe; USC glad to be there: maybe
Nebraska time zones from home: 2; USC time zones from home: 0;
Nebraska coaching situation: coach fired; USC coaching situation: stable

Interestingly Bo Pelini was fired in a season where Nebraska improved from 8-4 to 9-3; USC went 9-4 in last year's 13-game schedule. In both cases, the teams did about the same as last year, but not good enough for the fanbase's expectations for the program. That's why we have "maybe" as the answer to whether each team wants to be there. It's not a bad bowl and the opponent is high-profile, but both programs want so much more.

USC is playing relatively close to home and should have the majority of fans. Nebraska has always traveled well and should again, but that's getting tested more and more as they go to lesser bowls than in the past. The location and opponent should guarantee a lot of Cornhusker red in the stands but USC should have more as it's well within driving distance—basically commuting distance by California standards.

The main psychological factor in the game concerns Nebraska of course, and how they will react to Bo Pelini's firing. The Interim coach for the game will be tight ends coach Barry Cotton; the school has announced the hiring of Mike Riley from Oregon State. The team is portrayed as holding up well under Cotton, but are they focused on winning this game or leaving this year behind?

Final analysis

Looking at both teams' game performance charts, it's hard to not see a pattern in both. Nebraska's good games diminish slightly in quality, while USC's games reach higher peaks.

This could be an artifact of randomness or a human's propensity to see patterns in said randomness, but boy it sure looks like Nebraska's potential diminished over the season and USC's rose, which sure fits the storyline for the Cornhuskers. For USC, the pattern isn't as clear and neither is the storyline, since USC had an up-and-down season of close games, and the Notre Dame bar is the only one that makes any kind of pattern.

But we believe in the Nebraska chart. The Cornhuskers played worse in November, which is a pattern for them and part of the reason that Pellini was fired. Ironically the firing of Pelini may be something that "shakes up" the team to get it out of this pattern, but it's a stretch to think they'll play better because of it. To us it seems that come bowl time Nebraska will be playing, at its best, barely better than USC plays at its worst.

USC has to be thinking in terms of building for the future, starting with this bowl game. If they are they ought to win. If they fail to take Nebraska seriously they could lose. With the Cornhuskers at 9-3, it's hard to imagine them being unprepared, especially since they lost to Boston College. This isn't the Sun Bowl and USC wasn't pre-season #1. A win actually matters more for USC since they are representing their actual coach. Nebraska can lose and, as long as they gave it the old college try, it doesn't matter in the long run. They get a fresh start with their new coach next season.

Prediction: USC 38, Nebraska 28

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.

December 14, 2014 at 07:16 AM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

December 13, 2014

2014 Pinstripe Bowl Preview, Odds, & Prediction: Boston College vs. Penn State

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Pinstripe Bowl in New York, NY
Time: Saturday, December 27 at 4:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN

Boston College Eagles (7-5) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-6)

A good game for The Bronx, with relatively nearby teams. Penn State will be making its first bowl appearance since the scandal as they were granted reprieve from the 4-year ban.

Vegas line/spread: Boston College by 2 1/2 (over/under 40)

Vegas expects a really low-scoring game with the Eagles favored by around a field goal in the early line. The over/under crept up from 39 to 40 and stayed there as of the day before kickoff.

Game-comparisons	win %	vs. -2.5 Spread
Boston College	55%	50%
Penn State	45%	50%

Boston College ranks a bit better in our Strength power rating, #43 to #55, and they're favored by the game-comparison method. When Penn State is spotted 2.5 points, Penn State "wins" exactly as many of the 144 comparisons as the Eagles. So from that vantage point, the oddsmakers balanced the scales pretty accurately.

Strength power rating: #43 Boston College 17, #55 Penn State 14
Median power rating: Boston College 19-13 Offense-limited power rating: Boston College 17-14

Adjusted scoring rankings
Boston College Offense vs. Penn State Defense: #66 vs. #8
Penn State Offense vs. Boston College Defense: #144 vs. #33

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite by our margin-based power rating. When the teams' median scores are used that expands to a 6-point spread. Both teams are better on defense than offense, hence the very low score estimate—much lower even than the initial Vegas over/under of 39. Boston college almost has a top 25 defense while their offense is mediocre, but that's nothing: Penn State has a top ten adjusted scoring defense, while their offense is worse than a number of FCS teams. It might take a miracle for any points to go up on the board.

Yardage analysis: #35 Boston College 13, #43 Penn State 10
using yards per point: Boston College 18, Penn State 16

Adjusted Yardage rankings:
Boston College total Offense vs. Penn State total Defense: #61 vs. #4
Penn State total Offense vs. Boston College total Defense: #109 vs. #19

Boston College also outranks Penn State in adjusted yardage differential, #35 to #43, but as we see in the total offense/defense breakdowns, the same pro-defense bias from both teams. Both teams will probably be held under 300 yards, with Penn State barely above 250. Hence the 13-10 score estimate derived from the total yardages.

Converting the yardages to a score using each team's yards per point tendencies yields just a bit more scoring and a 2-point margin for B.C.

Special teams adjustments to yards/point estimate: Boston College 18, Penn State 16

Neither team has good special teams based on ESPN's FPI. That doesn't lower the overall scoring since one team's loss is another's gain, more or less.

When Boston College has the ball

Boston College rushing offense: #14

Penn State rushing defense: #3

Boston College doesn't have a great offense, but they have a very good rushing offense. QB Tyler Murphy has 1,079 yards with 6.3 average and 10 touchdowns, while freshman running back Jon Hillman has 712 and 12 TDs. Penn State's rushing defense is lockdown, however: they're #1 in the nation in raw yardage and #3 when adjusted for opposition. B.C. will get their yards because running is what they do, but they could be held to around 175, well below their average of 250.

Boston College passing offense: #122

Penn State passing defense: #12 per att: #17

Tyler Murphy is a good running quarterback, but as a passer he's adequate at best. He has 1,526 passing yards and 11 TDs against 10 interceptions. The pass is not a huge part of B.C.'s aresenal and the top receiver has just 342 yards. Worse, Penn State defends the pass well and the Eagles might be held to about 100 yards through the air.

It gets worse when you add in Penn State's propensity for interceptions—they have 16 on the year. Their pass rush (30 sacks) is a match for Boston College's protection (20 sacks allowed) only when you ignore the fact that 20 sacks is an awful lot to give up in 223 attempts.

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State rushing offense: #113

Boston College rushing defense: #18

Unlike Boston College, Penn State does not run the ball well. Leading rusher Akeel Lynch has just 603 yards on the year, though Bill Belton adds another 501. Boston College's defense isn't quite as good as the Nittany Lions', but this is a bad matchup for Penn State; they might not net much more than 50 yards.

Penn State passing offense: #74

Boston College passing defense: #36 per att: #44

Christian Hackenberg was supposed to have a breakout season; instead he had a sophomore slump. Completing just 54% with 8 TDs vs. 15 interceptions, he did manage to throw for 2,606 yards, mainly to DeaSean Hamilton and Geno Lewis. Sadly, the pass is the only productive source of offense for the Lions, and B.C.'s defense will probably hold them to around 200 yards.

Luckily for Hackenberg the Eagles don't intercept a lot of passes, but unfortunately for him they do have a pretty good pass rush, notching 30 sacks this year. That's bad news for Penn State who has given up a sorry 42 sacks. So those 200 yards might be painful for Hackenberg.

Boston College's season (7-5)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (1)
Losses (5) to losing teams (0)

@Massachusetts 30-7
Pittsburgh 20-30
#24 USC 37-31
Maine 40-10
Colorado St 21-24
@North Carolina St 30-14
#17 Clemson 13-17
@Wake Forest 23-17
@Virginia Tech 33-31
#21 Louisville 19-38
@#2 Florida St 17-20
Syracuse 28-7

Boston College only beat 3 bowl-eligible teams, but one of those was USC, 37-31. That win didn't spark the team to greater heights, though; two games later they lost to Colorado State at home. After that, they went 4-3, beating the bad and mediocre and losing to three teams that ended up in the Committee final top 25.

Throughout it all they played pretty consistently: not very good on offense (exceptions: scoring 37 on USC and 33 at Virginia Tech) and pretty well on defense (exceptions: Virginia Tech scoring 31, Louisville scoring 38). They played Florida State close the whole way, which doesn't say much really, but it was a good effort, as was their final win over Syracuse. Basically the Eagles played well in 7 games (including the Clemson and FSU losses) and poorly in 5 (including the Wake Forest win)

Penn State's season (6-6)

Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams (3)
Wins vs. top 25 teams (0)
Losses (6) to losing teams (2)

=UCF 26-24
Akron 21-3
@Rutgers 13-10
Massachusetts 48-7
Northwestern 6-29
@Michigan 13-18
#4 Ohio State 24-31 2ot
Maryland 19-20
@Indiana 13-7
Temple 30-13
@Illinois 14-16
#8 Michigan St 10-34

Penn State's season got off to a great start: they beat Central Florida in Ireland en route to a 4-0 start, and heard the announcement that they were eligible to be bowl-eligible.

But things started to go wrong in late September. Northwestern came to down and won 29-6, then the Lions traveled to Michigan and faced a Wolverine team that was on the ropes after three straight losses; they fell 18-13. Next came Ohio State, and Penn State played their best game of the year by taking the Buckeyes into double overtime before losing 31-24. A close loss to Maryland followed and they were just 4-4.

They beat Indiana and Temple to secure a bowl game but lost to Illinois and were trounced by Michigan State. The offense showed life only twice, against UMass (the FBS's #120 defense) and Temple (who had 5 turnovers, 1 being an interception return for TD). The defense was magnificent throughout, looking bad only in the Northwestern game.c

Key Injuries

Penn State's #5 tackler, linebacker Brandon Bell, is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. That might give some small hope to Boston College's offense. Penn State's offense gets a glimmer of hope, too, that corner John Johnson may be out for B.C.; he has a wrist injury.

Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:

Boston College's season: +0 wins; Penn State's season: -1 win
Boston College's momentum: -1 wins; Penn State's momentum: -2 wins
Boston College won final game: yes; Penn State won final game: NO
Boston College glad to be there? yes; Penn State glad to be there: YES
Boston College time zones from home: 0; Penn State time zones from home: 0;
Boston College coaching situation: stable; Penn State coaching situation: stable

Not many teams can say they beat 0% odds, but Penn State did: at the beginning of the season they had no chance to make it to a bowl game, but with the restriction lifted they made it at 6-6. They won't have any trouble getting pumped up for the bowl game even if it is the Pinstripe Bowl.

Boston College is probably satisfied to be playing closer to home than last year's bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana. But it's doubtful they'll match the basic enthusiasm that Penn State will show.

Final analysis

We're predicting a low-scoring game. Everything points in that direction. Naturally, this probably means that there will be an inexplicable bout of scoring in the game, because once you think you know college football, weird things happen. Granted, we might see a lot of turnovers and that could lead to offense. But for the most part, I think it's evident that the game should be on the lower-scoring side.

Boston College comes out about 2-3 points ahead in our numeric analyses, agreeing with the oddsmakers. But the lower-scoring the game, the more important each touchdown or field goal becomes. It's even easier for an underdog to get an upset win when the game is low-scoring.

Penn State should be fired up to play in a bowl after their ban. The question is, is that enough to overcome Boston College's other advantages? Penn State's offense is so bad that it's almost sad to see. They can't run the ball and the passing game is mistake-prone. The team has lost 6 of its last 8 games and its final two performances were awful.

On the other hand, Penn State's defense has been consistently great, especially against the run. All they have to do is stop Boston College from scoring a lot—which they can do—and hope the offense gets a couple of scores somehow. A key interception could mean a win for Penn State if it positions the offense close enough to the goal.

We conclude that Boston College is properly favored by the numbers, but Penn State has to have the emotional edge that's so important in the lesser bowl games. The Nittany Lions have played bad football lately, especially on offense, but their defense—and emotion—might be enough to win the game for them.

Prediction: Penn State 16, Boston College 13

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2014-2015 bowl game schedule.

December 13, 2014 at 06:06 PM in analysis, game previews/results | Permalink | Comments (0)

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