Ohio State's strong win over Oregon moved them very close to Notre Dame in terms of being the favorite to win it all, but the Irish win over Georgia—and the fact that they have an easier opponent next week—make them the overall odds favorite. Texas is a fairly distant third after two dull performances in the Playoff so far, and Penn State is a distant fourth at around 10%.
Committee Rankings and national title odds at "Final Four"
CFPC Team Strength Rec Seed Champ% %chg 1. Oregon 13-1 1 0.0 -4.9 2. Georgia 11-3 2 0.0 -7.9 3. Texas 3 13-2 5 20.3 -5.2 4. Penn State 8 13-2 6 10.5 +2.3 5. Notre Dame 2 13-1 7 35.4 +7.4 6. Ohio State 1 12-2 8 33.8 +10.0 7. Tennessee 10-2 9 0.0 0.0 8. Indiana 11-1 10 0.0 0.0 9. Boise St 12-2 3 0.0 -0.3 10. SMU 11-3 11 0.0 0.0 11. Alabama 9-4 -- 0.0 12. Arizona St 11-3 4 0.0 -1.3
Notre Dame's odds jumped 7.4 percentage points after beating Georgia; our power rating expected an Irish win but the uncertainty is gone and Notre Dame is just over 35% to win it all. Ohio State was also expected to beat Oregon, but did so in solid fashion which gave them a bigger 10% boost; the Buckeyes played the best game of the Playoff in beating Tennessee 42-17 and the 3rd best in beating Oregon 42-21.
Texas, on the other hand, has had the worst two wins, beating Clemson at home by 14 and Arizona State in double overtime; the Longhorns' odds sink 5.2% to 20.3%. Penn State's 31-14 win over Boise State wasn't nearly as solid as their 38-10 crushing of SMU; their odds rise just slightly to 10.5%.
Oregon and Georgia never had high odds to win it all despite being the top two seeds. Our initial odds for the pair were 6.6% and 11.1%, and those fell to 4.9% and 7.9% once their opponents in the 2nd round were solidified. They were 9th and 8th in Strength at the start and are 9th and 10th now. Oregon does remain #1 in Success, which measures wins and losses; they still have the best résumé in the country, and they've split wins with Ohio State (#2 in Success).
The All-Division Strength power rating showed Ohio State very narrowly at #1 before the 2nd round and the Buckeyes have increased their margin to nearly a point:
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk] 1. Ohio State 12-2 79.92 64.87 [ 4] -15.04 [ 1] 2. Notre Dame 13-1 79.11 66.36 [ 3] -12.75 [ 3] 3. Texas 13-2 77.30 62.79 [ 9] -14.51 [ 2] ... 8. Penn State 13-2 71.91 60.72 [ 16] -11.19 [ 5]
Notre Dame is a close 2nd while Texas has dropped off a bit. The Longhorns remain #3 but they are a few points behind the favorites, hence their reduced odds. Texas has to play two teams slightly better than them most likely, while Notre Dame has an "easier" game to start with, which is why their odds of being national champ are higher than Ohio State's even as a "chalk" finish would—like last week's projection—have Ohio State beating Notre Dame. So far every game has followed the roadmap of the Strength power rating.
Penn State is far off the block at #8 in Strength, and in any scenario would have to beat two teams quite a bit better than them. They're 8 points behind Ohio State and lost to the Buckeyes by 7 points earlier in the year (in Happy Valley).
So the best three teams made it to the Final Four, joined by the best team from the weakest bracket. The Nittany Lions had to play a decent SMU team (Strength #13) at home, and then a pretty weak Boise team (Strength #31). They did impress vs. SMU, but almost any other team in the Playoff would have been the favorite to come out of that bracket on top given home field in the first game (Arizona State and Clemson both would have been pick'em against SMU as the home team).
Offense, not defense, will win the National Title
Note that every team in the "Final Four" has a defense in the top 5; the difference is on offense, where Ohio State and Notre Dame are also in the top 5, while Texas is barely top 10 and Penn State well outside the top 10. In order to win it all Texas and Penn State will have to raise their bar on offense.
Looking ahead, the Strength power rating says Ohio State will beat Texas and Notre Dame will beat Penn State, and the oddsmakers agree: they have Ohio State by 6 and Notre Dame by 2, while we have Ohio State by 2 1/2 and Notre Dame by 7. If both win by a small margin, then Ohio State will be a 1 point favorite in the final; that is, our odds will shift to the Buckeyes once they have the Longhorns out of the way.
A Longhorn upset would keep Notre dame the national title favorite—provided Texas doesn't win by too much and tilt the power rating in their favor! Likewise a Notre Dame blowout win could push them ahead of the Buckeyes and keep them the favorite in the final game. Penn State would remain the underdog in the final game even if they blow out the Irish.
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