Committee update: Little change from sunday

Hardly a change since 11/30/2024 as the Committee largely reflects the AP poll, which we used on Sunday to project the final top 25.

We show SMU with around a 2.7% chance of staying in with a loss, giving Alabama a 97.4% chance of making it (and Indiana somehow a 99.9% chance as they get passed by the Tide once in 1,000 trials).

 LW  Rnk Team             CFPC   Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Oregon             1   *B10    12-0    100.0   +0.1    5.4   +1.1
  3   2. Texas              2   *SEC    11-1    100.0   +1.0   23.2   +4.6
  5   3. Notre Dame         4    Ind    11-1    100.0   +2.8   25.2   +8.5
  6   4. Penn State         3    B10    11-1    >99.9   +2.9    3.6   +1.6
  4   5. Georgia            5    SEC    10-2    >99.9   +2.8    6.3   -2.5
  1   6. Ohio State         6    B10    10-2    100.0   +0.1   13.5  -11.6
  9   7. SMU                8   *ACC    11-1     62.6   -1.7    2.4   +1.1
  8   8. Tennessee          7    SEC    10-2    100.0  +25.5    5.6   +0.9
 11   9. Indiana            9    B10    11-1     99.9  +23.0    4.8   +2.2
 10  10. Alabama           11    SEC     9-3     97.4  +12.1    7.8   -1.0
 12  11. Mississippi       13    SEC     9-3      0.0  -14.3    0.0   -1.5
  7  12. Miami FL          12    ACC    10-2      0.0  -92.2    0.0   -3.8
 13  13. Boise St          10   *MWC    11-1     62.8   -1.4    0.3    0.0
 15  14. South Carolina    14    SEC     9-3      0.0   -0.3    0.0    0.0
 16  15. Arizona St        15    B12    10-2     48.4  +14.1    0.5   +0.3
 19  16. Iowa St           16   *B12    10-2     51.6  +36.9    0.7   +0.5
 14  17. Brigham Young     18    B12    10-2      0.0  -45.0    0.0   -0.6
 18  18. Clemson           17    ACC     9-3     40.1  +38.5    0.7   +0.7
 24  19. Missouri          19    SEC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 22  20. Colorado          23    B12     9-3      0.0   -0.1    0.0    0.0
 21  21. UNLV              20    MWC    10-2     37.2  +30.7    0.0    0.0
 25  22. Illinois          21    B10     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 40  23. Syracuse          22    ACC     9-3      0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
 17  24. Tulane            --    AAc     9-3      0.0  -32.9    0.0   -0.5
 23  25. Army              24    AAc    10-1      0.0   -0.2    0.0    0.0

But this isn't really what we want to see. All these positions are "super-positions" of where some of the teams would be if they win and lose at a certain rate. Penn State, for example, comes in at an average of #4, split between the times they win (where they might be #1) and when they lose (where they might be around #8). Texas? Between #1 and #6. Oregon between #1 and #3. Georgia could be anywhere from #2 to #7, maybe even #9. Note that Arizona State and Iowa State remain #15 and #16 because it's such a coin flip between the two. So let's make things more concrete. First, we'll have SMU lose a close game and see how Alabama's odds change:

Looks like Alabama's odds fall to 93.3%. They most often miss when Georgia loses to Texas, which makes sense: will the Committee keep not just one 3-loss SEC teams in the Playoff, but two?

 LW  Rnk Team                    Conf    Rec   Playoff% %chg  Champ%  %chg
 11   9. Indiana                 B10    11-1     99.9  +23.0    4.8   +2.2
 10  10. Alabama                 SEC     9-3     93.3   +8.0    7.8   -1.0
  9  11. SMU                    *ACC    11-1      6.7  -57.6    0.1   -1.2

Ok that's interesting but what about all the other teams, where do they really finish? I'm not going to page through all of the possibilities between the five games (32 permutations) not to mention what if one team blows out the other (now that's about 4 results for each game instead of 2, making for 1024 possibilities). But here's what we see if the favorites win:

  1. Oregon                     13-0
  2. Texas                      12-1
  3. Notre Dame                 11-1
  4. SMU                        12-1
  5. Ohio State                 10-2
  6. Penn State                 11-2
  7. Tennessee                  10-2
  8. Georgia                    10-3
  9. Indiana                    11-1
 10. Boise St                   12-1
 11. Alabama                     9-3
 12. Mississippi                 9-3
 13. Miami FL                   10-2
 14. Iowa St                    11-2
 15. South Carolina              9-3
 16. Brigham Young              10-2
 17. Arizona St                 10-3
 18. Missouri                    9-3
 19. Clemson                     9-4
 20. Colorado                    9-3
 21. Illinois                    9-3
 22. Syracuse                    9-3
 23. UNLV                       10-3
 24. Tulane                     10-3
 25. Louisiana-Lafayette        11-2

Oregon of course is #1 and Texas remains #2, with Notre Dame moving into #3 while SMU takes the #4 spot at 12-1. Penn State falls to #6 just below Ohio State which makes sense as the Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions. Georgia does fall below Tennessee when they beat the Vols so that might not happen. Also it's doubtful Ole Miss will pass Miami. The rest stays the same in the top ranks from the Committee's rankings. Then Iowa State moves up to #14, Clemson drops back a bit to #19, Tulane does come in at #24 with Army dropping out altogether, and Memphis replaced by Louisiana-Lafayette (who wins the Sun Belt). Memphis might just be #24 and Tulane #25 in that case, but we're not too worried about the whole top 25.

Now if all the favorites win, but SMU loses, the Mustangs end up #11 almost all the time, that's the key takeaway. The 6.7% is for all scenarios, and with this being the most common scenario that number is probably reduced quite a bit.