With just the conference title games left the field is almost completely set: 9 teams are virtual locks and six more are playing for the last three spots.
With about 99% certainty Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame, Penn State, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Alabama, and Indiana will make the Playoff. SMU or Clemson, Boise State or UNLV, and Arizona State or Iowa State will join.
For those last six contenders, it's pretty much win or remain out. Boise State, UNLV, Arizona State, Iowa State, and Clemson have to win. The only slight exception seems to be SMU, who could possibly lose a close game to Clemson and remain in. For that to happen, they'd have to stay ahead of either Indiana or Alabama, or hope for a blowout loss by Georgia or Penn State.
Projected Final Committee Rankings (11/30 pre-Committee meeting)
LW Rnk Team Conf Rec Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 2 1. Oregon *B10 12-0 100.0 +0.1 5.6 +1.3 3 2. Texas *SEC 11-1 100.0 +1.0 23.7 +5.1 5 3. Notre Dame Ind 11-1 100.0 +2.8 24.1 +7.4 6 4. Penn State B10 11-1 >99.9 +2.8 3.1 +1.1 4 5. Georgia SEC 10-2 >99.9 +2.7 6.1 -2.7 1 6. Ohio State B10 10-2 100.0 +0.1 14.0 -11.1 8 7. Tennessee SEC 10-2 100.0 +25.5 6.7 +2.0 9 8. SMU *ACC 11-1 59.6 -4.7 2.3 +1.0 10 9. Alabama SEC 9-3 99.9 +14.6 7.7 -1.1 11 10. Indiana B10 11-1 >99.9 +23.0 5.1 +2.5
Alabama ranks 9th in our simulation but has the "lowest" Playoff odds of 99.9%, while Indiana shows >99.9%. Last week Alabama's odds were 85.3%, which seemed high to some but the Tide had many paths to the Playoff, namely a loss by Tennessee at Vanderbilt (didn't happen), Georgia losing to Georgia Tech (damn near happened), or a loss by SMU (nope) or Miami (ding ding ding!). If SMU does lose, they could remain in if Penn State or Georgia gets blown out. In that case, a 2-loss Penn State might fall below Indiana, and/or a 3-loss Georgia could fall below Alabama (whom they lost to earlier in the year). It takes a lot, and SMU's odds of staying in with a loss track to about 0.1% so it's highly unlikely. For reference here, ESPN's FPI has Alabama at just 30.1% odds (!) and SMU at 69.2%, with opponent Clemson at 41.7%, which implies more than 10% leeway for SMU if they lose.
Boise State and Iowa State are favored in their conference title games, with the Big 12 race almost a coin flip. UNLV's playoff odds took a big jump (+30.3%), but why? Weren't they heavily favored to beat Nevada and make the Mountain West title game? They were, but Tulane was in their way last week—even with a MWC title they didn't pass an 11-2 Tulane most of the time. Tulane's loss cleared UNLV's path to the Playoff if the Rebels beat Boise State.
Miami is the big loser this week, obviously; the Canes went from 92.2% to 0.0%. Without a signature win, it will be easy for the Committee to drop them out of range, but remember that the Committee has consistently ranked them higher than the AP, not that it will probably matter. Mississippi's odds on the other hand went to 0.0 as they needed even more chaos to make the field, and it appears South Carolina will pass them them despite Ole Miss's 27-3 regular season win over the Gamecocks. For the last six weeks we've been projecting a top 25 South Carolina finish without a Playoff spot, and it looks like they might be the "first team out", with no path to get in—unless, I suppose, the Committee throws us a surprise on Tuesday and has the Gamecocks ranked ahead of the Tide (they lost to Alabama 27-25 in Tuscaloosa).
LW Rnk Team Conf Rec Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 15 11. South Carolina SEC 9-3 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 13 12. Boise St *MWC 11-1 63.2 -1.0 0.2 -0.1 12 13. Mississippi SEC 9-3 0.0 -14.3 0.0 -1.5 16 14. Arizona St B12 10-2 48.3 +14.0 0.5 +0.3 7 15. Miami FL ACC 10-2 0.0 -92.2 0.0 -3.8 19 16. Iowa St *B12 10-2 51.7 +37.0 0.6 +0.4 14 17. Brigham Young B12 10-2 0.0 -45.0 0.0 -0.6 22 18. Colorado B12 9-3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 18 19. Clemson ACC 9-3 40.5 +38.9 0.4 +0.4 24 20. Missouri SEC 9-3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25 21. Illinois B10 9-3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21 22. UNLV MWC 10-2 36.8 +30.3 <0.1 0.0 40 23. Syracuse ACC 9-3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17 24. Tulane *AAc 9-3 0.0 -32.9 0.0 -0.5 23 25. Army AAc 10-1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Army has the home field edge against Tulane in the American title game but we favor the Green Wave over the Black Knights. If they'd beaten Memphis there would be some interesting intrigue as to whether the Big 12 would get a team in the Playoff at all, but that matter is closed now.
Let's look again at the top of the list again for Championship odds.
Notre Dame is #1 at 24.1%. The Irish were largely written off early in the season after losing to Northern Illinois, with many saying that was the end of their Playoff hopes! But now they're playing like the best team in the nation and are a Playoff lock. They are a slight favorite over #2 Texas, but that's with Texas' game against Georgia pending. If the Longhorns win that, their Championship odds will rocket as they'll have a first-round bye, which Notre Dame can't get. Every team here that can get a bye—Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Georgia, and SMU—could see their Championship odds nearly double with a conference title (they won't quite double since partial odds of having a bye are already figured into the championship odds).
LW Rnk Team Conf Rec Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 2 1. Oregon *B10 12-0 100.0 +0.1 5.6 +1.3 3 2. Texas *SEC 11-1 100.0 +1.0 23.7 +5.1 5 3. Notre Dame Ind 11-1 100.0 +2.8 24.1 +7.4 6 4. Penn State B10 11-1 >99.9 +2.8 3.1 +1.1 4 5. Georgia SEC 10-2 >99.9 +2.7 6.1 -2.7 1 6. Ohio State B10 10-2 100.0 +0.1 14.0 -11.1 8 7. Tennessee SEC 10-2 100.0 +25.5 6.7 +2.0 9 8. SMU *ACC 11-1 59.6 -4.7 2.3 +1.0 10 9. Alabama SEC 9-3 99.9 +14.6 7.7 -1.1 11 10. Indiana B10 11-1 >99.9 +23.0 5.1 +2.5
Teams here that can't get a bye—Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, Alabama, and Indiana—will show roughly the same odds next week. Ohio State went from a >50% chance of a bye to a 0% chance and their odds fell accordingly, from first place at 25.1% to third place at 14.0%. Georgia's odds fell from 8.8% to 6.1% due to their lackluster performance against Georgia Tech, and Alabama's mild win over Auburn didn't go them any favors either.
Though SMU's Playoff odds fell—due to low odds of staying in the field with a title game loss—their Championship odds almost doubled with the solid chance of getting a Playoff bye. And Penn State, who didn't look like they'd be in the Big Ten title game, added over 1.0% to their Champ odds due to making it there. The jump for Texas and Notre Dame mostly came from Ohio State's drop from the first-round-bye perch. Oregon, meanwhile, continues to fare relatively poorly in the Strength power rating and very often faces Georgia in their first game—or Ohio State, as they would be the current 8 and 9 seeds!
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