Notre Dame moved into the pole position among Playoff teams, replacing Texas as the overall favorite while Ohio State remained 3rd but improved their odds substantially while also replacing the Irish as #1 in Strength. In other words, if every game goes to plan, Ohio State will edge Notre Dame in the finals (probably in overtime) but considering every game left to be played, the Irish have the edge to be champions.
It's extremely close in the All-Division Strength ratings, with the Buckeyes just .02 ahead of the Irish:
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk] 1. Ohio State 11-2 78.90 63.99 [ 6] -14.91 [ 2] 2. Notre Dame 12-1 78.88 67.19 [ 2] -11.69 [ 4] 3. Texas 12-2 78.33 63.13 [ 9] -15.20 [ 1]
Texas is about a half-point behind, making things very tight. Of course, Ohio State and Texas are on an earlier collision course which helps the Irish.
Committee Rankings and national title odds at Round of 8
CFPC Team Strength Rec Seed Champ% %chg
1. Oregon 9 13-0 1 4.9 -1.7 2. Georgia 7 11-2 2 7.9 -3.2 3. Texas 3 12-2 5 25.5 -0.5 4. Penn State 10 12-2 6 8.2 +3.8 5. Notre Dame 2 12-1 7 28.0 +7.8 6. Ohio State 1 11-2 8 23.8 +9.2 7. Tennessee 10-3 9 0.0 -5.1 8. Indiana 11-2 10 0.0 -4.5 9. Boise St 30 12-1 3 0.3 -0.4 10. SMU 11-3 11 0.0 -3.3 11. Alabama 9-3 -- 0.0 12. Arizona St 16 11-2 4 1.3 -1.2
Notre Dame gained 7.8% mainly from getting a game out of the way; it's easier to win three games than to win four. Ohio State gained for the same reason but also from greatly outperforming expectations, beating Tennessee by 25 rather than 6 or 7 points. Texas met expectations against Clemson but Ohio State becoming a more likely opponent caused their odds to dip slightly, allowing Notre Dame to take over the top spot. As I've said a lot recently, people have been sleeping on the Irish since their early loss to Northern Illinois. And people will probably sleep on them all the way to the final game if they make it there.
What about Oregon and Georgia, the top two seeds? Oregon now is guaranteed to face Ohio State rather than an easier Tennessee team; that, along with the Buckeyes' increased rating makes the Ducks job harder in the rematch, which will be a neutral field this time. The Bulldogs didn't play but their Strength took a hit via Ohio State diminishing Tennessee. Even as they move up to #7 their odds of beating Notre Dame fell, as did their odds of beating Ohio State. And like Oregon, their opponent is now certain to be the tougher one: Oregon doesn't get Tennessee, Georgia doesn't get Indiana.
Thus Penn State moves ahead of both top seeds into 4th most likely to win it all. With SMU out of the way the Nittany Lions have Boise State (#30 in Strength) as their only roadblock to the final four. They'd be an underdog to both Georgia and Oregon, but both those teams have a very tough challenge to even getting to the final four. The Nittany Lions will be a 10 point favorite to beat the Broncos by our numbers. And they did increase their Strength rating by quite a bit by beating SMU by 28 points in what should have been a very close game by the numbers.
That leaves Boise State with a 0.3% chance to win it all. They'd have to beat Penn State, then either Georgia or Notre Dame, then very likely face another monster in the finals. It's true they almost beat Oregon at Oregon, but they'd have to do the equivalent three times to win it all.
Arizona State's odds are only slightly better at 1.3%. Beat Texas, then Oregon or Ohio State, then play again in the finals? Not much of a chance for three big upsets in a row.
Once again, the ASCII brackets, with Committee seed in front and Committee rank and Strength rank in parens:
5 Texas(3,3)---------------
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|----------
| |
4 Arizona St(12,16)-------- |
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|-----------
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8 Ohio St(6,1)------------- | |
| | |
|---------- |
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1 Oregon(1,9)-------------- |
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|----------National Champ
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6 Penn St(4,10)------------ |
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|---------- |
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3 Boise St(9,30)----------- | |
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|-----------
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7 Notre Dame(5,2)---------- |
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|----------
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2 Georgia(2,7)-------------
Easiest path remaining (by Committee seed):
- Texas (15)
- Penn State (12)
- Oregon (11)
- Georgia (10)
- Notre Dame (7)
- (tie) Boise St (7)
- Ohio State (6)
- (tie) Arizona St (6)
Texas has the best route if you go by Committee seed, facing the #12, #1, and #3 teams (if the best seeds win). Penn State's draw isn't bad either with the #9, #2, and #1. Then finally Oregon and Georgia, who should have he easiest path by design, are represented.
Easiest path remaining (by Strength):
- Penn State (33)
- Texas (19)
- Notre Dame (18)
- Ohio State (14)
- Georgia (13)
- (tie) Boise St (13)
- Oregon (6)
- (tie) Arizona St (6)
Here Penn State is the best off, facing a low-rated Boise State team before the real challenges begin. But top-seed Oregon faces the best team right away, then probably the #3 before the #2. In other words, they have to beat the three strongest teams. Texas also gets a break by facing ASU, while Notre Dame's lower bracket doesn't include anyone else in the top 5 in Strength.
Strength seems to mean a bit less this year as there seems to be parity among the top 10, and week to week any team might look like the best or stumble (see Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, etc). Oregon is undefeated despite being only #9 in Strength, and Georgia has beaten Texas twice despite ranking lower in Strength.
In the end, I think we got exactly the Final Eight we deserved. At least it's good that all the favorites won, and all proved they belonged. The process for making the brackets will almost certainly be revised for 2025. Until then let's see who wins this thing.
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