This is a tale of two teams, one (Kansas) whose bowl situation looked hopeless and another (ULM) who seemed to have a bowl in the bank. Their fortunes have completely reversed since mid-season of 2024.
Kansas Jayhawks bowl odds
Kansas hit rock bottom at 2-6 after losing a close one at K-State. They needed to win 4 straight against a very tough slate of opponents: Iowa State, BYU, Colorado, and Baylor.
The Jayhawks' bowl qualification odds were just 1.8%.
Rank Team Weekend result Rec Chalk Average Playoff% chg% Bowl% Chg% # 33 Kansas Pre-season 0-0 8-4 7.5- 4.5 11.9 0.0 76.0 +0.0 # 28 Kansas Beat Lindenwood 48-3 1-0 10-2 7.6- 4.4 14.1 +2.2 77.4 +1.4 # 46 Kansas Lost at Illinois 23-17 1-1 9-3 6.7- 5.3 6.0 -8.1 68.5 -8.9 # 68 Kansas Lost to UNLV 23-20 1-2 8-4 5.5- 6.5 1.3 -4.7 49.4 -19.1 # 87 Kansas Lost at W Virginia 32-28 1-3 4-8 4.7- 7.3 0.2 -1.1 33.4 -16.0 # 94 Kansas Lost to TCU 38-27 1-4 3-9 3.7- 8.3 <0.1 -0.1 13.8 -19.6 #102 Kansas Lost at Arizona St 35-31 1-5 3-9 3.2- 8.8 0.0 -0.1 4.5 -9.3 #107 Kansas Did not play 1-5 2-10 2.9- 9.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 -2.1 #100 Kansas Beat Houston 42-14 2-5 2-10 3.3- 8.7 0.0 0.0 3.5 +1.1 # 93 Kansas Lost to Kansas St 29-27 2-6 2-10 3.3- 8.7 0.0 0.0 1.8 -1.7 # 89 Kansas Did not play 2-6 2-10 3.4- 8.6 0.0 0.0 1.9 +0.1 # 79 Kansas Beat Iowa State 45-36 3-6 3-9 4.2- 7.8 0.0 0.0 6.3 +4.4 # 59 Kansas Beat BYU 17-13 (road) 4-6 4-8 4.8- 7.2 0.0 0.0 17.4 +11.1 # 60 Kansas Beat Colorado 37-21 5-6 5-7 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 42.8 +25.4
Pre-season, the Jayhawks were expected to have a solid year and probably get to a bowl game even in the very-parity (paritied?) Big Twelve. After beating Lindenwood (who?) they were just over 75% odds and even had a 14% chance to make the Playoff, but close losses to Illinois and UNLV knocked them just below 50% at 1-3.
Another loss to West Virginia put them at 1 in 3 odds, and the TCU loss put them at 1-4 and 13.8%, about what their Playoff Odds were at the beginning of the season. It was looked bleak. Kansas very nearly upset Arizona State but fell 35-31, their 4th loss within 6 points and they were down to 4.5%.
They even fell during the off week as reality set in, down to 2.4%. Their first D-I win was a blowout victory over Houston, and their odds ticked up to 3.5%. They almost upset Kansas State—their 5th "almost"—but at 2-6 their bowl odds were 1.8%. But they were unquestionably playing good football now.
And so the turnaround started.
Facing 7-1 Iowa State the Jayhawks got their first big win. At 3-6 it didn't mean much: they gained just 4.4%, up to 6.3%. Odds were still stacked against them big-time.
Next up: BYU. The Cougars were undefeated (9-0) and playing at home. Yet the Jayhawks prevailed, 17-13, stopping the Cougars short at the end. That was worth another 11.1% to 17.4%.
They needed to beat a hot Colorado team next, and they did quite easily, 37-21. That more than doubled their bowl odds to 42.8%, a figure that doesn't really reflect how well Kansas is playing right now.
Only Baylor is left, a road game. Can the Jayhawks do it? Go from 2-6 to 6-6 for a bowl game? We'll find out this weekend.
Louisiana-Monroe bowl odds
If there's a team that is the anti-Kansas this year it's Louisiana-Monroe (ULM). The Warhawks started strong and were 5-1 with a 95.8% chance to make a bowl game when it started to go South.
Rank Team Weekend result Rec Chalk Average Playoff% chg% Bowl% Chg% #132 ULM Pre-season 0-0 1-11 2.8- 9.2 0.0 -0.1 13.6 -0.0 #131 ULM Beat Jackson State 30-14 1-0 1-11 3.2- 8.8 0.0 0.0 13.3 -0.3 #122 ULM Beat UAB 32-6 2-0 3-9 4.4- 7.6 <0.1 +0.1 26.8 +13.5 #113 ULM Did not play 2-0 3-9 4.6- 7.4 <0.1 0.0 30.1 +3.3 #103 ULM Lost at Texas 51-3 2-1 3-9 5.0- 7.0 <0.1 0.0 37.3 +7.2 # 88 ULM Beat Troy 13-9 3-1 4-8 6.0- 6.0 <0.1 0.0 57.7 +20.4 # 69 ULM Beat James Madison 21-19 4-1 5-7 7.2- 4.8 0.2 +0.1 87.0 +29.3 # 56 ULM Beat Southern Miss 38-21 5-1 7-5 7.8- 4.2 0.2 0.0 95.8 +8.8 # 72 ULM Did not play 5-1 7-5 7.5- 4.5 <0.1 -0.1 93.6 -2.2 # 86 ULM Lost at S. Alabama 46-17 5-2 6-6 6.5- 5.5 0.0 -0.1 82.6 -11.0 # 83 ULM Lost at Marshall 28-23 5-3 6-6 6.5- 5.5 0.0 0.0 85.6 +3.0 # 90 ULM Lost to Texas St. 38-17 5-4 6-6 6.0- 6.0 0.0 0.0 76.7 -8.9 # 86 ULM Lost at Auburn 48-14 5-5 6-6 5.9- 6.1 0.0 0.0 68.2 -8.5 # 96 ULM Lost at Arkansas St 28-21 5-6 5-7 5.3- 6.7 0.0 0.0 25.1 -43.1
ULM started the year with just about the lowest expectations possible: #132 out of 134 teams and just a 13.6% chance to make a bowl game even with a very week schedule. Beating FCS Jackson State didn't improve their lot, but beating UAB did and after their bye week they were above 30% bowl odds.
Losing to Texas by 48 only improved those odds; as the #113 team, staying within 7 touchdowns on the road was a boon. The Troy win was what boosted the Warhawks above 50% for the first time; at 3-1 they only had to go 3-5 to make a bowl game and their cumulative projection was 6.0-6.0. Still, they were only favored in one game going forward so they'd need some upsets.
They got 2 upsets over their next two games, beating James Madison—a major upset—and Southern Miss (minor). That put them at 5-1, with a 95.8% bowl chance and even a 0.2% shot at the Playoff!
ULM only had to win 1 of their next 6, and they were favored to win 2 of those, and projected to win 2 or 3. But South Alabama rained on their parade, beating them 46-17, knocking their odds to 82.6%. They were not expected to beat Marshall, and keeping it within 5 points on the road was a plus that put them back up a bit at 85.6%.
The Texas State loss put them at 5-4, still at 76.7%. Auburn beat them 48-14 but they were still at 68.2% because they definitely weren't supposed to win that one.
But the Arkansas State loss had a big effect, plunging the Warhawks from 68.2% to 25.1%. That was the one they were supposed to win, and they didn't.
They've gone from 95.8% to 25.1% with one game left: rival Louisiana-Lafayette. They have home field advantage but do they have the motivation after the slide? Louisiana-Lafayette needs a win to seal their Sun Belt title game appearance; ULM needs a win for a bowl game.
Who will get the job done? Kansas? ULM? Both?
Trends favor Kansas and not ULM, and the oddsmakers agree: Kansas is favored by a point while ULM is almost a 10 point underdog.
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