Let's just use the AP poll, since the Committee sometimes makes a worse version of it these days.
AKA, post-Committee meeting projected Final Top 25 for week 12, 2024:
Both the AP and Committee had do decide how to handle Georgia and Mississippi, as the Bulldogs beat Tennessee but lost the week before decisively to the Rebels. The AP decided to move Georgia to #8 above #9 Ole Miss, but the Committee fixed that by keeping Georgia at #10. So the AP has Georgia rated more fairly but not relative to Mississippi. And with the Bulldogs 2 spots lower per Committee, they slide below Notre Dame in our projection of the final Committee poll, but at 97.1% it hardly matters. With UMass and Georgia Tech left they should finish 10-2 and are unlikely to make the SEC title game (but who knows) and don't need it. Mississippi got the worst of the deal, slipping to #9 from Sunday's #7 but their Playoff Odds were about the same. Alabama moved back ahead of Texas, too, but they were neck and neck and Bama wins the SEC more often.
The top seven in both polls are the same, but the Committee is friendlier to Miami who was #10 in our Sunday update but is #7 here, at 76% instead of 66%. The Committee's view of Miami gives them some breathing room if they don't win the ACC. The scrambling of the SEC teams for some reason bumped Indiana up a spot and Penn State down 3 spots to #10. Tennessee was one spot lower per the Committee and it knocked their Playoff Odds down even further, from 80.4% last week to 70.2% Sunday to 57.8% today. The Committee's ranking hurt them worse than their loss to Georgia!
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team CFPC/AP Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 2 1. Oregon 1/1 B10 11-0 12-0 11.9- 0.1 99.9 +0.6 2.6 -1.1 1 2. Ohio State 2/2 *B10 9-1 11-1 10.7- 1.3 98.8 +1.1 12.7 -0.9 3 3. Alabama 7/7 *SEC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 98.1 +1.7 23.2 +0.1 5 4. Texas 3/3 SEC 9-1 11-1 10.7- 1.3 98.4 +7.0 15.5 +1.0 4 5. Notre Dame 6/6 Ind 9-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 83.4 -8.3 10.2 -2.7 11 6. Georgia 10/8 SEC 8-2 10-2 9.9- 2.1 97.1 +36.0 8.4 +4.0 8 7. Miami FL 8/11 *ACC 9-1 11-1 10.8- 1.2 76.3 +6.4 3.4 +0.3 6 8. Indiana 5/5 B10 10-0 11-1 11.3- 0.7 84.6 +0.9 4.3 -0.8 12 9. Mississippi 9/9 SEC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 84.9 +8.5 13.3 +3.1 9 10. Penn State 4/4 B10 9-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 78.9 +5.8 1.5 +0.2 7 11. Tennessee 11/10 SEC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 57.8 -22.6 2.8 -3.0 13 12. Boise St 12/12 *MWC 9-1 11-1 10.9- 1.1 68.5 -0.3 0.3 0.0 14 13. SMU 13/13 ACC 9-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 31.7 -2.5 0.4 -0.2 10 14. Brigham Young 14/14 *B12 9-1 10-2 10.4- 1.6 41.5 -32.2 0.4 -0.1
Boise State was #12 in both and SMU #13 in both but the Broncos are ahead of the Mustangs in the update (SMU had jumped Boise on Sunday's interim update). Neither team's odds changed much. BYU is for some odd reason behind SMU (whom they beat this season) in BOTH polls. The Committee's job is to correct mistakes like this, not parrot the AP poll, but here we are. They actually TALK about these things amongst each other!
The lower portion of the top 25 is almost exactly the same between the polls, meaning the Committee just has no opinions of its own, or sees no reason to actually analyze teams. The polls are identical from #12 to #17, but the AP has Army #18. The Committee had Army #24 last week and the Knights were IDLE and the Committee still moves them up to #19 because they are now following the AP instead of leading like they did in years past.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team CFPC/AP Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 16 15. S. Carolina 18/18 SEC 7-3 9-3 8.5- 3.5 0.7 -0.2 <0.1 0.0 19 16. Colorado 16/16 B12 8-2 10-2 9.5- 2.5 31.6 +15.1 0.3 +0.2 20 17. Clemson 17/17 ACC 8-2 9-3 9.5- 2.5 6.6 +3.6 0.2 +0.1 23 18. Tulane 20/20 *AAc 9-2 10-2 9.9- 2.1 26.0 +18.3 0.3 +0.2 15 19. Texas A&M 15/15 SEC 8-2 9-3 8.8- 3.2 2.0 -5.7 <0.1 0.0 28 20. Army 19/18 AAc 9-0 11-1 10.7- 1.3 4.1 +2.9 0.0 0.0 25 21. Iowa St 22/22 B12 8-2 10-2 9.4- 2.6 13.0 +4.6 0.2 +0.1 30 22. Arizona St 21/21 B12 8-2 10-2 9.3- 2.7 10.7 +7.9 <0.1 0.0 24 23. UNLV 24/23 MWC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 4.3 -15.6 0.0 0.0 22 24. LSU --/-- SEC 6-4 8-4 7.4- 4.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 21 25. Washington St --/25 P12 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
After that the Committee matches the AP down to the new teams entering (Arizona State, Iowa State back in, UNLV, and Illinois) with the only major difference being the Committee keeps Missouri in after their loss while the AP instead gave a break to Washington State.
This similarity means that our Sunday update using the AP poll as a "basis" doesn't change at all from #15 to #25. The Committee seems to be positioning Army in case they beat Notre Dame, they won't have to have the Knights fly up an embarrassing 13 spots if they do. The one thing the Committee had right was putting Army in the lower reaches of the top 25. They have the 2nd-worst schedule in the country and shouldn't be #19, and certainly not after a bye week.
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