Georgia beat Tennessee 31-17 Saturday, prompting a re-shuffling of our projected Final Committee Top 25. The Bulldogs are almost a certain pick now at 98.3%, up 37.2% from last week when they were on the "bubble" (which is a thing for March Madness, but now is becoming a "thing" for college football too). Now Tennessee is on the bubble, down 10.2%—but still at 70.2% which is really high for a team not expected to make it.
Oregon is 11-0 and it would be hard for them to find a way to miss the Playoff, yet Ohio State is the most likely Big Ten champion. Same for the SEC, where Alabama is the most likely SEC championship game winner, but Texas, on average finishes higher. Having more losses means more risk for the OSU and Bama. And suddenly Georgia is right up there with Alabama in Playoff Odds, and have the #1 SOS in the country. The Committee will probably push them up quite a bit from last week's #12, and not just because of Kirby Smart giving them the business.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 2 1. Oregon B10 11-0 12-0 11.9- 0.1 99.6 +0.3 2.3 -1.4 1 2. Ohio State *B10 9-1 11-1 10.7- 1.3 98.4 +0.7 12.3 -1.3 5 3. Texas SEC 9-1 11-1 10.7- 1.3 98.4 +7.0 15.7 +1.2 3 4. Alabama *SEC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 98.2 +1.8 22.8 -0.3 11 5. Georgia SEC 8-2 10-2 9.9- 2.1 98.3 +37.2 9.2 +4.8 4 6. Notre Dame Ind 9-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 85.7 -6.0 10.1 -2.8 12 7. Mississippi SEC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 85.9 +9.5 13.5 +3.3 9 8. Penn State B10 9-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 79.8 +6.7 1.7 +0.4 6 9. Indiana B10 10-0 11-1 11.3- 0.7 78.0 -5.7 4.1 -1.0 8 10. Miami FL *ACC 9-1 11-1 10.8- 1.2 65.8 -4.1 2.9 -0.2 7 11. Tennessee SEC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 70.2 -10.2 3.2 -2.6 14 12. SMU ACC 9-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 30.7 -3.5 0.4 -0.2 13 13. Boise St *MWC 9-1 11-1 10.9- 1.1 67.6 -1.2 0.2 -0.1 10 14. Brigham Young *B12 9-1 10-2 10.4- 1.6 41.0 -32.7 0.4 -0.1
The Vols' problem is that Miami is directly above them and an expected auto-bid in the ACC, and if they lose to SMU the Mustangs probably replace them, so Tennessee's best bet might be for 2nd-level Big Ten teams Penn State and Indiana have unexpected losses that allow Tennessee to be the 5th SEC team. Or another 2-loss SEC team like Mississippi might get their 3rd loss. Or even Notre Dame—could they survive a 2nd loss? They'd probably be on the bubble with two losses.
And interestingly Boise State finishes ahead of BYU, after the Big Twelve's terrible weekend where the Cougars lost to Kansas and Kansas State got their 3rd loss to Arizona State. All of this boosted Colorado's chances quite a bit, and even Iowa State gets back into double digits. And look at Tulane! Along with Army the Green Wave clinched a American conference title game berth and beat the Knights most of the time, and remarkably often—over 1 in 4 times—makes the Playoff. Army only makes it around 5% of the time.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 16 15. South Carolina SEC 7-3 9-3 8.5- 3.5 0.8 -0.1 0.1 0.0 19 16. Colorado B12 8-2 10-2 9.5- 2.5 31.2 +14.7 0.4 +0.3 20 17. Clemson ACC 8-2 9-3 9.5- 2.5 7.3 +4.3 0.2 +0.1 23 18. Tulane *AAc 9-2 10-2 9.9- 2.1 26.2 +18.5 0.2 +0.1 15 19. Texas A&M SEC 8-2 9-3 8.8- 3.2 2.3 -5.4 0.1 0.0 28 20. Army AAc 9-0 11-1 10.7- 1.3 5.0 +3.8 <0.1 +0.1 25 21. Iowa St B12 8-2 10-2 9.4- 2.6 13.2 +4.8 0.2 +0.1 30 22. Arizona St B12 8-2 10-2 9.3- 2.7 11.5 +8.7 0.1 0.0 24 23. UNLV MWC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 4.1 -15.8 0.0 0.0 22 24. LSU SEC 6-4 8-4 7.4- 4.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 21 25. Washington St P12 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
The SEC has three more teams above, but that makes them #6 to #8 in the conference so their odds are pretty low. But Texas A&M is co-leader right now with Texas and has a solid chance of making the SEC title game.
Falling out of the top 25: Louisville, who lost to Stanford, and Kansas State who fell to Arizona State. The Wildcats had reasonable odds before that but not anymore.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 26 26. James Madison SUNe 8-2 10-2 9.6- 2.4 0.2 -1.4 100.0 0.0 17 27. Louisville ACC 6-4 8-4 7.4- 4.6 0.0 -6.1 100.0 0.0 18 28. Kansas St B12 7-3 8-4 8.1- 3.9 0.7 -23.8 100.0 0.0 29 29. Missouri SEC 7-3 9-3 8.2- 3.8 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 27 30. Louisiana-Lafayette *SUNw 8-2 10-2 9.6- 2.4 0.1 -0.7 100.0 0.0 31 31. Iowa B10 6-4 8-4 7.6- 4.4 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 32 32. Virginia Tech ACC 5-5 7-5 6.6- 5.4 0.0 0.0 95.5 +1.4 45 33. Baylor B12 6-4 8-4 7.4- 4.6 0.0 -0.1 100.0 +8.2
Florida's big win over LSU bumped the Gators' bowl odds up from around 50% to 90%, needing one win with Ole Miss and FSU left. The Big Ten had a good week for bowl bids, with USC up 15% after beating Nebraska; Rutgers beat Maryland and got to six wins; and Washington became eligible by beating UCLA, which dunked the Bruins' odds from around 1 in 2 to 1 in 4.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 59 42. Florida SEC 5-5 6-6 6.1- 5.9 0.0 0.0 90.3 +38.8 42 48. Southern Cal B10 5-5 6-6 6.0- 6.0 0.0 0.0 79.5 +15.4 74 51. Rutgers B10 6-4 8-4 7.1- 4.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 +19.7 79 59. Kansas B12 4-6 4-8 4.8- 7.2 0.0 0.0 17.4 +11.1 81 64. South Alabama SUNw 5-5 6-6 6.4- 5.6 0.0 0.0 96.1 +32.6 62 71. West Virginia B12 5-5 5-7 5.8- 6.2 0.0 0.0 64.0 -18.5 69 75. UCLA B10 4-6 5-7 5.1- 6.9 0.0 0.0 23.0 -26.6 75 76. Washington B10 6-5 6-6 6.1- 5.9 0.0 0.0 100.0 +34.9 86 77. South Florida AAc 5-5 6-6 6.5- 5.5 0.0 0.0 98.0 +31.6 73 78. Old Dominion SUNe 4-6 6-6 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 47.3 -18.5
Kansas got their 2nd big upset in a row; they were 2-6 needing four straight wins, and so far they've taken down Iowa State and BYU; they have a 17.4% chance to beat Colorado and Baylor to get to six wins. South Alabama upset Louisiana and are right on the verge, while fellow Sun Belt team Old Dominion lost to James Madison and now the Monarchs are still 50/50 to get the two wins they need (over Marshall and Arkansas State). South Florida is now at 98% needing to beat either Tulsa or Rice.
More Big Ten below: Michigan State and Maryland were upset and the Terps are in real trouble, needing to beat both Iowa and Penn State to reach six wins. Utah and Houston both need two wins, with long odds to beat both Iowa State and UCF (Utah), and Baylor and BYU (Houston).
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 76 80. Michigan St B10 4-6 5-7 5.3- 6.7 0.0 0.0 39.9 -22.7 104 88. Arkansas St SUNw 6-4 6-6 6.6- 5.4 0.0 0.0 100.0 +42.2 91 91. Utah B12 4-6 4-8 4.5- 7.5 0.0 0.0 7.4 -10.5 80 93. Houston B12 4-6 4-8 4.3- 7.7 0.0 0.0 2.5 -26.6 108 98. Texas-San Antonio AAc 5-5 6-6 5.9- 6.1 0.0 0.0 82.4 +52.9 117 99. New Mexico MWC 5-6 5-7 5.5- 6.5 0.0 0.0 45.6 +42.4 82 100. Maryland B10 4-6 4-8 4.3- 7.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 -24.7 103 101. Florida Int'l CUSA 3-7 5-7 4.6- 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -13.6 94 103. UNC-Charlotte AAc 3-7 5-7 4.2- 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 -24.4 107 119. Oregon St P12 4-6 4-8 4.2- 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 -17.4
In the American conference UTSA beat North Texas and need a win over either Temple or Army. But it's too late for Charlotte who got their 7th loss; had they beat USF, they had FAU and UAB to get past. Florida International is also out of luck. And look at Oregon State, after the upset shutout loss to Air Force the Beavers still have a 0.5% chance to go 6-6: just beat 8-2 Washington State and 9-1 Boise State.
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