Committee update elevates Miami, hurting Indiana (?)

Weird, sometimes simulation results are weird and unexpected. Indiana looked like a lock before the Committee results when the AP placed them at #10. Then the Committee put them at....#10 and they slipped out of the "top 12" !

The Hoosiers still show a solid 77% chance of making the Playoff, but that's down from an interim 99% following Saturday's games. If their Committee ranking matched the AP's, what changed?

Looks like it was the Committee putting Miami at #6 instead of #8. In both scenarios, about half the time only one of Miami and SMU makes the Playoff. But when Miami is at #8 and SMU at #9, Indiana pretty much always finishes ahead of one of the two. Not so when Miami starts at #6. That one spot is enough to push Indiana down, but that doesn't explain why Alabama and Tennessee are both ahead of them now. Butterfly effect? 

In any case, here are the updated odds. Indiana could be in the "blue" section if you go by Playoff%, as they're still in better shape that both Tennessee (74.5%) and SMU (64.3%), so clearly these teams were very close in average position. Alabama's odds jumped by 20%, so they were the main beneficiary of Indiana's unexplained fall. In the end it makes a bit more sense: Indiana lost 38-15 and lost about 7.7% from last week's 84.6%. Maybe it's the 99% figure that should be examined. Alabama ends up losing only 12.8% from last week's value, and Ole Miss (up a spot in the Committee relative to the AP) drops from 65% to 14.3% instead of 5.0%.

                          Rank                   Playoff Odds   AP/CFPC          LW
 LW  Rnk Team           AP CFPC  Conf   Rec     w/AP    w/CFPC   %chg   Champ%  %chg
  2   1. Ohio State      2   2   B10    10-1    >99.9    >99.9    0.0    24.5   12.4
  1   2. Oregon          1   1   B10    11-0    >99.9    >99.9    0.0     4.2    1.7
  4   3. Texas           3   3   SEC    10-1     99.5     99.0   -0.5    19.6    3.1
  6   4. Georgia         6   7   SEC     9-2     96.8     97.2   +0.4     8.8    0.4
  5   5. Notre Dame      5   5   Ind    10-1     99.7     97.2   -2.5    17.9    6.5
 10   6. Penn State      4   4   B10    10-1     98.1     97.1   -1.0     2.3    0.5
  7   7. Miami FL        8   6   ACC    10-1     84.8     92.2   +7.4     3.4    0.4
 11   8. Tennessee       7   8   SEC     9-2     73.6     74.5   +0.9     5.0    1.9
 13   9. SMU             9   9   ACC    10-1     73.2     64.3   -8.9     1.7    0.9
  3  10. Alabama        13  13   SEC     8-3     65.1     85.3  +20.2     6.6  -14.4
  8  11. Indiana        10  10   B10    10-1     99.0     76.9  -22.1     3.7   -1.7
  9  12. Mississippi    15  14   SEC     8-3      5.0     14.3   +9.3     0.6  -11.8
 12  13. Boise St       11  11   MWC    10-1     65.1     64.2   -0.9     0.3    0.0
 14  14. Brigham Young  19  19   B12     9-2     41.2     45.0   +3.8     0.4    0.2
 15  15. South Carolina 16  15   SEC     8-3      0.3      0.3    0.0     0.0   -0.1
 22  16. Arizona St     14  16   B12     9-2     35.2     34.3   -0.9     0.2    0.1
 18  17. Tulane         18  17   AAc     9-2     31.7     32.9   +1.2     0.4    0.2
 17  18. Clemson        12  12   ACC     9-2      5.0      1.6   -3.4     0.1   -0.2
 21  19. Iowa St        17  18   B12     9-2     20.1     14.7   -5.4     0.3    0.0
 19  20. Texas A&M      20  20   SEC     8-3     <0.1     <0.1    0.0     0.0   -0.1
 23  21. UNLV           21  22   MWC     9-2      6.4      6.5   +0.1     0.0    0.0
 16  22. Colorado       23  25   B12     8-3     <0.1     <0.1    0.0    <0.1   -0.3
 20  23. Army           25  --   AAc     9-1      0.3      0.2   -0.1     0.0    0.0
 29  24. Missouri       24  21   SEC     8-3      0.0      0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0
 34  25. Illinois       22  23   B10     8-3      0.0      0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0

Other than Miami, only a handful of teams are ranked more than 1 spot away from the AP poll. Arizona State is two spots lower, as is Colorado. Missouri is three spots higher and Army fell out. K-State comes in at #24 on the Committee (unranked in AP).

So once again, we basically have a cut and paste job from the Committee. Sigh.