Ole Miss beating Georgia and Miami losing to Georgia Tech were the big stories last week, obviously.
Ohio State is again at #1, back where they were after week 2 and week 6. They're on track to win a rematch over #2 Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If they lose that game, they're still probably in, but Oregon is even more certain—99.4%—to get a bid. In fact it's hard to figure out how Oregon could miss out on the Playoff right now. Losing to both Wisconsin and Washington, and still making the title game and losing it, to finish 10-3? Maybe. Meanwhile Indiana and Penn State are looking good if they go 11-1 each and miss the title game, that's fine with them. The Big Ten is sitting pretty, much prettier than the SEC in fact.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 2 1. Ohio State *B10 8-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 97.8 0.0 13.4 -2.3 3 2. Oregon B10 10-0 12-0 11.6- 0.4 99.4 +0.3 3.5 -0.6 9 3. Alabama *SEC 7-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 97.4 +13.3 22.9 +7.9 7 4. Notre Dame Ind 8-1 11-1 10.7- 1.3 91.1 +5.6 13.0 +5.5 4 5. Texas SEC 8-1 11-1 10.5- 1.5 92.4 +9.2 14.2 +3.3 6 6. Tennessee SEC 8-1 10-2 10.2- 1.8 83.0 -2.4 6.1 -4.6 5 7. Indiana B10 10-0 11-1 11.3- 0.7 81.3 -8.6 4.8 -4.4 12 8. Penn State B10 8-1 11-1 10.5- 1.5 73.5 +21.5 1.2 +0.4 13 9. Mississippi SEC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 81.1 +34.9 11.5 +4.9 8 10. Georgia SEC 7-2 10-2 9.5- 2.5 64.0 -15.8 4.4 -3.4 10 11. Brigham Young *B12 9-0 12-0 11.1- 0.9 70.9 +4.6 0.5 -0.3 1 12. Miami FL *ACC 9-1 11-1 10.8- 1.2 63.2 -32.6 3.1 -5.0 11 13. Boise St *MWC 8-1 11-1 10.8- 1.2 69.5 -4.6 0.3 -0.6
In the SEC a ridiculous six teams are fighting for the title, with 2-loss Alabama a slight favorite over 1-loss Texas. The Tide destroyed LSU so completely that they're #1 in our power rating and have the best chance (22.9%) to win the national title now. Tennessee is in the mix with 1 loss, and Mississippi put themselves back in with the win over Georgia. The Bulldogs are set to finish #10 and still perhaps miss the Playoff, though their odds of making it are still well over 50%. But with Notre Dame taking up a space, it will be hard to find room for five SEC teams.
Georgia lost almost 16% of Playoff Odds but Miami's loss to Georgia Tech was far worse—it turns the ACC into a 1-bid league meaning the Hurricanes are probably going to have to win the conference. Still at 63.2% after losing a monstrous 32.6%, the 'Canes, instead of being far and away the ACC leader are now 1 of 4 teams within about 6 places of each other, with SMU leading Clemson and Louisville. The Big Twelve isn't in great shape either, as BYU isn't in great at-large position and Colorado and Kansas State are farther down the rankings. Boise State's lead in the "fifth auto-bid" slot continues to grow, and if the ACC and Big Twelve teams have title game upsets, the Broncos could be in the top 4 with a first-round bye.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 14 14. SMU ACC 8-1 11-1 10.4- 1.6 35.7 -1.9 0.5 -0.1 15 15. Texas A&M SEC 7-2 9-3 8.9- 3.1 7.5 -5.7 <0.1 0.0 19 16. South Carolina SEC 6-3 9-3 8.5- 3.5 0.5 -0.2 <0.1 0.0 27 17. Clemson ACC 7-2 9-3 9.0- 3.0 5.6 +3.9 0.1 0.0 20 18. Louisville ACC 6-3 9-3 8.4- 3.6 2.9 +0.4 0.1 0.0 23 19. Colorado B12 7-2 10-2 9.2- 2.8 16.3 +9.2 0.2 +0.1 21 20. Kansas St B12 7-2 9-3 8.8- 3.2 22.1 +9.9 0.1 0.0 28 21. Army *AAc 9-0 11-1 10.0- 1.0 9.7 +8.1 0.0 0.0 18 22. Washington St P12 8-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 17 23. LSU SEC 6-3 8-4 7.9- 4.1 0.1 -12.2 0.0 -0.2 22 24. Tulane AAc 8-2 10-2 9.6- 2.4 7.5 -0.6 0.1 0.0 25 25. UNLV MWC 7-2 10-2 9.7- 2.3 14.0 -6.6 0.0 -0.1
South Carolina beat Texas A&M a few weeks ago but the Aggies only have one conference loss which keeps them in the mix, however doubtful, for the Playoff. LSU lost pretty much all of their chance with the 42-13 loss to Alabama. These are the 6th, 7th, and 8th SEC teams when we don't even know if the league (or any league) with get four bids. The other teams near the bottom of the top 25 are Boise's competition for the last auto-bid, consisting of Army and Tulane from the American (with Army inflated by use of the AP poll as a Committee stand-in before Tuesday), and UNLV, whose 29-27 win over Hawaii substantially lowered their Playoff odds and set their national title odds to zero. Meanwhile Washington State's Playoff Odds dipped to zero, too, as the Cougars were needing lots of teams to lose many games, and it didn't happen.
Iowa State's 2nd loss was as damaging as their first (they went from 56.1% Playoff Odds two weeks ago to 34.7% last week to 9.2% this week). But because the Big Twelve is still wide open, their odds are better than all but 17 teams. The Cyclones' loss is why Colorado and K-State's odds both jump by nearly 10%, and Arizona State's jump to 2.5%, as the Sun Devils get a shot at both BYU and K-State. Louisiana-Lafayette is the favorite to win the Sun Belt but even when they do, they rarely make the Playoff, hence James Madison carries higher Playoff Odds. Georgia Southern has essentially a chance in hell. Western Kentucky is projected to win the C-USA but does not make the Playoff in almost any scenario.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 16 26. Iowa St B12 7-2 10-2 9.0- 3.0 9.2 -25.5 100.0 0.0 29 27. James Madison SUNe 7-2 10-2 9.2- 2.8 1.1 +0.5 100.0 0.0 32 28. Louisiana-Lafayette *SUNw 8-1 11-1 10.2- 1.8 0.4 +0.2 100.0 0.0 35 29. Arizona St B12 7-2 8-4 8.5- 3.5 2.5 +1.1 100.0 0.0 26 30. Iowa B10 6-4 8-4 7.5- 4.5 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 30 31. Virginia Tech ACC 5-5 7-5 6.5- 5.5 0.0 0.0 94.1 -3.8 36 32. Georgia Southern SUNe 6-3 9-3 8.3- 3.7 <0.1 +0.1 100.0 0.0 41 33. Missouri SEC 7-2 9-3 8.3- 3.7 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 33 34. Western Kentucky *CUSA 7-2 10-2 9.2- 2.8 0.1 0.0 100.0 0.0 66 35. Georgia Tech ACC 6-4 7-5 6.9- 5.1 0.0 0.0 100.0 +16.8 39 36. North Carolina ACC 5-4 7-5 7.2- 4.8 0.0 0.0 98.7 +0.2 24 37. Pittsburgh ACC 7-2 8-4 8.1- 3.9 0.1 -3.5 100.0 0.0
The ACC is well-represented above, but with four teams in the top 25 none has much of a chance. Virginia Tech has 5 losses, North Carolina has four, and despite their huge leap from upsetting Miami, Georgia Tech will have to be content with clinching a bowl game. Pittsburgh's 2nd loss, 24-19 to Virginia, puts them lower than all those teams though they still have a 1 in 1000 chance of making the Playoff. They face Clemson this week and Louisville next, so they have opportunity to make up the lost ground.
As we look further down the list, the teams who still have non-zero Playoff Odds starts to strain credulity. Does 4-loss Baylor have a shot, even 1 in 2000+ ? All four losses are in-conference, can they even finish #2 under any scenario? And they play West Virginia, Houston, and Kansas, hardly an opportunity-laded slate. Sam Houston State in the CUSA is another head-scratcher, along with Marshall in the Sun Belt. At least Memphis is still alive in the American, which could end up the #5 conference, and Navy holds a win over Memphis hence their gaudy 0.2% odds.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 43 45. Baylor B12 5-4 8-4 6.8- 5.2 <0.1 +0.1 91.8 -0.5 47 46. Sam Houston St CUSA 7-2 9-3 9.0- 3.0 <0.1 +0.1 100.0 0.0 34 50. Cincinnati B12 5-4 6-6 6.2- 5.8 0.1 -1.5 82.5 -14.3 56 51. Navy AAc 7-2 8-4 8.0- 3.0 0.2 +0.1 100.0 0.0 55 57. Marshall SUNe 6-3 7-5 7.5- 4.5 <0.1 0.0 100.0 +1.5 51 59. Florida SEC 4-5 6-6 5.5- 6.5 0.0 0.0 51.5 -10.8 48 61. Memphis AAc 8-2 9-3 9.0- 3.0 <0.1 0.0 100.0 0.0 77 62. West Virginia B12 5-4 5-7 6.4- 5.6 0.0 0.0 82.5 +38.3 53 63. Central Florida B12 4-6 6-6 5.3- 6.7 0.0 0.0 42.7 -24.2
Cincinnati still shows 0.1% too, down from 1.6% last week following a loss to West Virginia, who adds 38% to their bowl hopes. UCF's bowl hopes went in the other direction with a loss to Arizona State, and now the Knights need to beat both West Virginia (road) and Utah (home) to get six wins. Florida is back to almost exactly 50/50 on a bowl bid after the loss to Texas; the Gators need two wins in three tries, and they finish at Florida State. Assuming they can win that one, they need to either beat LSU or Mississippi, both at home. LSU looks pretty vulnerable so that's the one I'd bet on.
More high-leverage bowl-bid campaigns below: Boston College edged Syracuse and only needs one win, but with SMU, UNC, and Pitt left that's not a gimme. The latter two are at home so it's still a short putt. Virginia beat Pitt which revived their hopes (from 8.2% to 27.3%) but they need to beat one of Notre Dame, SMU, and Virginia Tech, the latter being on the road. That's a long putt. Oklahoma's up and down season went down again last week with a lose-from-ahead loss to Missouri; now the Sooners need to either beat Alabama or LSU, the latter on the road.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 69 65. Boston College ACC 5-4 6-6 6.1- 5.9 0.0 0.0 77.5 +20.5 49 66. Oklahoma SEC 5-5 5-7 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 39.3 -31.6 84 69. UCLA B10 4-5 5-7 5.5- 6.5 0.0 0.0 49.6 +32.3 85 74. Rutgers B10 5-4 6-6 6.3- 5.7 0.0 0.0 80.3 +35.5 64 75. Washington B10 5-5 6-6 5.7- 6.3 0.0 0.0 65.1 -12.3 99 83. Virginia ACC 5-4 5-7 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 35.5 +27.3 93 85. East Carolina AAc 5-4 6-6 6.5- 5.5 0.0 0.0 94.6 +19.1 78 86. South Florida AAc 4-5 5-7 5.8- 6.2 0.0 0.0 66.4 -16.3 100 88. San Jose St MWC 6-3 7-5 6.9- 5.1 0.0 0.0 100.0 +23.2
UCLA and Rutgers really helped themselves last week with wins over Iowa (20-17) and Minnesota (26-19). With three games left UCLA needs two wins and is about 50/50 to get it from Washington, USC, and Fresno State, while Rutgers needs one win from Maryland, Illinois, and Michigan State (first and last on the road). Speaking of Washington, to reach six wins they need to either beat UCLA or Oregon. Both East Carolina and South Florida are in good shape in the American, especially East Carolina who needs one more win, while USF needs two wins from a pretty easy slate (Charlotte, Tulsa, Rice). San Jose State really did themselves a favor by reaching six wins (beat Oregon State 24-13) as their next two are Boise and UNLV; they'd have been sweating the Stanford game at five wins, most likely.
Liberty finally made it. After a 5-0 start and a cancelled game, then back to back losses to Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State, the Flames beat MTSU 37-17 to insure a winning season. Coastal Carolina is 5-4 and Appalachian State 4-5 in the C-USA, but the former has a 77% bowl bid chance while App State is at 3.3%. Why are the Mountaineers' odds so low? For one, they only have two games left (they were supposed to play Liberty). Second, they have James Madison and Georgia Southern left, and their odds of winning both are apparently 3.3%.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 95 89. Coastal Carolina SUNe 5-4 6-6 6.1- 5.9 0.0 0.0 77.2 +21.1 96 92. Liberty CUSA 6-2 7-4 7.2- 3.8 0.0 0.0 100.0 +10.2 98 93. Hawai`i MWC 4-6 6-6 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.1 86 95. North Carolina St ACC 5-5 5-7 5.3- 6.7 0.0 0.0 28.8 -33.4 80 100. Fresno St MWC 5-5 6-6 5.8- 6.2 0.0 0.0 70.4 -23.9 97 101. Appalachian St SUNe 4-5 4-7 4.3- 6.7 0.0 0.0 3.3 -11.7 91 107. Oregon St P12 4-5 5-7 4.9- 7.1 0.0 0.0 17.9 -44.3 104 112. San Diego St MWC 3-6 5-7 4.2- 7.8 0.0 0.0 1.2 -31.4 122 117. New Mexico MWC 4-6 4-8 4.4- 7.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 +2.4
North Carolina State was over 60% in bowl odds last week but a home loss to Duke set them back; now the Wolfpack need a road win at either Georgia Tech or North Carolina. Only 28.8% to beat one of those two? Ouch. The worst drop was suffered by Oregon State, who was also over 60% last week but got upset by San Jose State and now needs to beat two of Air Force (road, but easy), Washington State (home, tough), and Boise State (road, very tough). They have a generous 17.9% of winning two.
That leaves a slew of Mountain West teams hoping to reach six wins. Fresno State has the best chance despite their loss to Air Force dropping them from 94% to 70%, but neither Colorado State nor UCLA (road) is a gimme. San Diego State wasn't looking too bad until this week; losing to New Mexico puts them at 3-6 and needing to sweep UNLV, Utah State, and Air Force. The latter two are both 2-7 so if they'd topped the Lobos it wouldn't be out of the question, but beating UNLV (on the road) is another matter.
New Mexico's win revived their near-dead hopes, propping them from 0.8% to 3.2%. The Lobos still need to beat both Washington State at home and Hawaii on the road. Hawaii, for their part, needs that win and a win over Utah State to go 6-6, but even if they do they aren't bowl eligible as they have two FCS wins, and as a result they already show 0.0% bowl odds.
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