The Committee has spoken once again, and there are few surprises. Enough to update our Final Top 25 Projections, though.
Miami did fare better with the Committee (#9) than with the AP voters (#12), so the Canes are a lot safer now than they were in our previous rundown prior to the Committee meeting, where they were #12, essentially needing an ACC title for a berth. Staying in the Committee top 10 gives them a shot at an at-large bid if they lose in the conference championship game.
As a result of Miami's placement, Georgia finished #11 instead of #12, ahead of Mississippi. Both SEC teams have slightly lowered odds since Sunday, but the Bulldogs slipped ahead of the Rebels in average placement. Normally this would mean Georgia makes our "projected field" but in this case since there's a head-to-head element and Ole Miss still has substantially higher Playoff Odds (74% to 61%) we take the teams with the highest odds to make our "field." Miami's rise (or, reduced fall) also bumps Penn State a spot, though their odds hardly change.
Another change happens due to BYU leaping Tennessee per the Committee; this moves BYU ahead of Georgia and Ole Miss, and also moves Tennessee back below Indiana, all with slightly adjusted odds.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team CFPC Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Champ% %chg 2 1. Ohio State 2 *B10 8-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 97.7 -0.1 13.6 -2.1 3 2. Oregon 1 B10 10-0 12-0 11.6- 0.4 99.3 +0.2 3.7 -0.4 9 3. Alabama 10 *SEC 7-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 96.4 +12.3 23.1 +8.1 7 4. Notre Dame 8 Ind 8-1 11-1 10.7- 1.3 91.7 +6.2 12.9 +5.4 4 5. Texas 3 SEC 8-1 11-1 10.5- 1.5 91.4 +8.2 14.5 +3.6 5 6. Indiana 5 B10 10-0 11-1 11.3- 0.7 83.7 -6.2 5.1 -4.1 6 7. Tennessee 7 SEC 8-1 10-2 10.2- 1.8 80.4 -5.0 5.8 -4.9 1 8. Miami FL 9 *ACC 9-1 11-1 10.8- 1.2 69.9 -25.9 3.1 -5.0 12 9. Penn State 4 B10 8-1 11-1 10.5- 1.5 73.1 +21.1 1.3 +0.5 10 10. Brigham Young 6 *B12 9-0 12-0 11.1- 0.9 73.7 +7.4 0.5 -0.3 8 11. Georgia 12 SEC 7-2 10-2 9.5- 2.5 61.1 -18.7 4.4 -3.4 13 12. Mississippi 11 SEC 8-2 10-2 9.8- 2.2 76.4 +30.2 10.2 +3.6 11 13. Boise St 13 *MWC 8-1 11-1 10.8- 1.2 68.8 -5.3 0.3 -0.6 14 14. SMU 14 ACC 8-1 11-1 10.4- 1.6 34.2 -3.4 0.6 0.0 15 15. Texas A&M 15 SEC 7-2 9-3 8.9- 3.1 7.7 -5.5 0.1 0.0 19 16. South Carolina 21 SEC 6-3 9-3 8.5- 3.5 0.9 +0.2 0.1 0.0 20 17. Louisville 19 ACC 6-3 9-3 8.4- 3.6 6.1 +3.6 0.2 +0.1 21 18. Kansas St 16 B12 7-2 9-3 8.8- 3.2 24.5 +12.3 0.3 +0.2 23 19. Colorado 17 B12 7-2 10-2 9.2- 2.8 16.5 +9.4 0.1 0.0 27 20. Clemson 20 ACC 7-2 9-3 9.0- 3.0 3.0 +1.3 0.1 0.0 18 21. Washington St 18 P12 8-1 11-1 10.6- 1.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 17 22. LSU 22 SEC 6-3 8-4 7.9- 4.1 <0.1 -12.2 0.0 -0.2 22 23. Tulane 25 *AAc 8-2 10-2 9.6- 2.4 7.7 -0.4 0.1 0.0 25 24. UNLV -- MWC 7-2 10-2 9.7- 2.3 19.9 -0.7 0.0 -0.1 16 25. Iowa St -- B12 7-2 10-2 9.0- 3.0 8.4 -26.3 <0.1 -0.5
In the lower half of the projected top 25, we see Kansas State back ahead of Colorado (since the Committee, and not the AP, ranks them that way), but the big one is again the Committee's placement of Army. The AP doubled down on their ranking of the Black Knights, moving them up to #16, but the Committee is unimpressed and puts them at #24. Hence, our projection for Army tumbles from a pre-Committee #21 back to #28, which is where they stood last week.
Last week we projected three teams would eventually make their way into the Top 25 and this week two of them did: South Carolina and Tulane. The Committee ranks them at #21 and #25, and we moved them up to #16 and #23 (actually down a notch). UNLV is still in our projection yet not in the Committee's rankings; it might take a while for the Runnin' Rebels to make the cut with the Committee. We also see Iowa State remaining in the top 25 since Army is out.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team CFPC Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 29 26. James Madison SUNe 7-2 10-2 9.2- 2.8 1.6 +1.0 100.0 0.0 32 27. Louisiana *SUNw 8-1 11-1 10.2- 1.8 0.8 +0.6 100.0 0.0 28 28. Army 24 AAc 9-0 11-1 10.0- 1.0 1.2 -0.4 100.0 0.0 41 29. Missouri 23 SEC 7-2 9-3 8.3- 3.7 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 35 30. Arizona St B12 7-2 8-4 8.5- 3.5 2.8 +1.4 100.0 0.0 26 31. Iowa B10 6-4 8-4 7.5- 4.5 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 30 32. Virginia Tech ACC 5-5 7-5 6.5- 5.5 0.0 0.0 94.1 -3.8 36 33. Georgia Southern SUNe 6-3 9-3 8.3- 3.7 0.1 +0.1 100.0 0.0
Just outside the top 25, we have Army, as noted, and Missouri, whom we project to have 1 or 2 more losses and zero percent Playoff Odds. Army's Playoff Odds were 1.6% last week, 9.1% in the interim rankings (pre-Committee) and just 1.2% now. This will continue to happen as we use the AP, then the Committee, for rankings yardstick. Incidentally the FPI gives Army an astounding 15.1% chance to make the Playoff, which I think is ridiculous even if the Committee ranked them as high as the AP does.
Lousiana-Lafayette, at #27, may be on the verge of a Committee ranking at 8-1. They probably won't stay there unless they win the Sun Belt, and even then their Playoff Odds are low.
Comments