...last night's loss to FBS-newcomer Kennesaw State certainly provided it. The Owls (I had to look up the nickname) beat the Flames 27-24 and it was Liberty's first regular-season loss after 17 wins.
It's not surprising at all that Liberty lost a game, but THIS game? Kind of a shock, given that Kennesaw State was 0-6 going in. Our projected Committee Top 25 showed Liberty favored to go just 8-3 (so, 3-3 after a 5-0 start) with 8.2 wins expected. Last night's game was firmly in the W column as far as expectations go, while Jacksonville State, Western Kentucky, and Sam Houston State looked like losses.
Liberty's 5-0 run this year was against the weakest schedule in the FBS. The Flames had last year's weakest schedule, too, and they went 13-0 while ranking a reasonable #41 in Strength. This year they ranked #106. Their résumé so far:
- beat Campbell (currently #75 in FCS) 31-24
- beat #132 New Mexico State 30-24
- beat #127 UTEP 28-10
- beat #111 East Carolina 35-24
- beat #99 Florida International 31-24 (OT)
All of those were home games, too, except for New Mexico State.
Kennesaw State entered the game 0-6 and ranked #133 in Strength. Liberty should have been able to win this one, but considering they beat the #132 team by 6 points at home, a road game vs. #133 is no gimme.
Still, who would have bet that this was going to be the game that ended their streak?
Liberty started the year in our projections with a 17.6% chance to make the Playoff, due to their solid odds of winning the CUSA. Each week they won a game and dropped in odds, from 17.6% to 16.5% to 9.6% to 7.6% to <0.1% the last few weeks. Their odds got cut in half once when they didn't play, due to their game with Appalachian State was cancelled, leaving them with an 11-game schedule.
So despite Sports Illustrated's claim that last night's upset had Playoff implications, no it really did not. That ship had sailed already. and Liberty was pretty much out of contention to be the 5th-ranked conference champ even if they won out.
By last week Liberty had fallen from their pre-season #18 ranking in our final Committee Top 25 to #70 last week. That won't be improving come Monday, and that <0.1% Playoff chance is bound to settle to 0.0%
As for Kennesaw State...they were one of just four teams whose Playoff Odds started the year at 0.0%, and that won't budge. Their Bowl odds started at 16% and stood at <0.1%, and I'm not sure those will improve either. But those are just paper odds anyway, since in real life the Owls aren't eligible for a bowl game until 2025.
So even if this is the start of a great run and Kennesaw State ends up 6-6, they'll still be staying home.
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