Pretty wild week, lots of close calls but few real upsets though Oregon beating Ohio State counts I suppose, and Ole Miss bit the dust again. Here's how it changed our Projected Top 25 and Playoff Projections:
Ohio State only slipped one spot and 1.1% from last week with the 1-point loss at Oregon; the Ducks moved up to #4, adding 12.2% to sit at 83.6%, still lower odds than the Buckeyes 90.5%. Essentially we're saying an Ohio State win in a rematch in Indianapolis is the most likely outcome in the Big Ten race. Other Big Ten contenders include upstart Indiana who was idle this week but benefits from the full exit of pre-season influence and jumps to 67%. Penn State survived—just barely—at USC in a big comeback overtime win; they tread water but slip back into the 12-team projection, giving the Big Ten four teams this week.
The SEC had 5 teams last week but is down to three. At the top Texas, who thrashed Oklahoma 34-4, is far and away the #1 team, with a crazy 96.6% chance to make the Playoff and 30% chance to win the national title. Alabama survived a threat at home from South Carolina 27-25; despite being #5 now they have a solid 10.7% chance to win it all based on their power ratings (their performance the last 2 weeks notwithstanding). Tennessee beat Florida in overtime and shed more than 10% of their odds as a result, but they're still in and they host Alabama this weekend, the loser getting a 2nd loss.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% Champ% 2 1. Texas *SEC 6-0 12-0 11.2- 0.8 96.6 +8.2 100.0 30.1 1 2. Ohio State *B10 5-1 11-1 10.3- 1.7 90.5 -1.1 >99.9 17.2 3 3. Miami FL *ACC 6-0 12-0 11.1- 0.9 82.1 +4.3 100.0 6.4 5 4. Oregon B10 6-0 12-0 10.7- 1.3 83.6 +12.2 100.0 1.8 4 5. Alabama SEC 5-1 10-2 9.7- 2.3 77.5 +1.7 >99.9 10.7 7 6. Iowa St *B12 6-0 12-0 10.7- 1.3 73.0 +11.4 100.0 3.8 10 7. Notre Dame Ind 5-1 11-1 9.9- 2.1 72.2 +14.3 >99.9 4.7 11 8. Indiana B10 6-0 11-1 10.8- 1.2 67.1 +16.9 100.0 3.8 12 9. Brigham Young B12 6-0 12-0 10.5- 1.5 60.2 +10.9 100.0 1.7 6 10. Tennessee SEC 5-1 11-1 9.6- 2.4 57.3 -11.5 >99.9 7.4 13 11. Penn State B10 6-0 10-2 9.8- 2.2 44.0 -0.1 100.0 0.7 14 12. Boise St *MWC 5-1 10-2 10.1- 1.9 44.9 -1.7 >99.9 0.7 9 13. Georgia SEC 5-1 8-4 8.6- 3.4 36.6 -19.6 >99.9 2.4 21 14. SMU ACC 5-1 11-1 9.7- 2.3 34.0 +18.3 99.9 1.0 8 15. Mississippi SEC 5-2 10-2 8.9- 3.1 29.7 -31.0 99.9 3.4
Unlike the Vols, Mississippi lost in overtime (to LSU) and as a result they're out of the projection, losing 31% of their odds. And even Georgia—tepid 41-31 winners over lowly Mississippi State—lost nearly 20% of their odds and for the first time this year is not favored to make the Playoff. That can change big time next week as they face #1 Texas.
Miami remains the solid ACC favorite, with SMU now looking like their top competitor. Iowa State dispatched West Virginia and stayed on top in the Big Twelve with BYU not far back and also in the 12-team projection. Notre Dame's 49-7 win over Stanford kept them firmly in the seedings.
Boise State again rounds out the projection at #12, but their 28-7 win at Hawaii didn't increase their numbers. Their main competition for the last spot now appears to come from—get this—Army! The Black Knights are 6-0 after beating UAB 44-10 and have nearly a 1 in 4 shot at making the Playoff. Their problem (and benefit) is an easy schedule, though they will face Notre Dame. James Madison (Sun Belt) is another possibility for the 5th auto-bid spot, and Tulane could beat out Army in the American, while UNLV will test Boise State in the Mountain West.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% Champ% 17 16. Texas A&M SEC 5-1 9-3 8.7- 3.3 24.0 +2.6 >99.9 0.7 15 17. Kansas St B12 5-1 10-2 8.9- 3.1 26.7 -5.1 99.4 0.7 16 18. Clemson ACC 5-1 10-2 9.0- 3.0 21.8 -5.7 >99.9 0.6 27 19. Army *AAc 6-0 11-1 10.6- 1.4 23.3 +15.5 100.0 0.1 18 20. Washington St P12 5-1 11-1 10.3- 1.7 5.5 -7.4 >99.9 <0.1 22 21. James Madison *SUNe 5-1 11-1 10.2- 1.8 17.5 +4.3 >99.9 0.2 20 22. Tulane AAc 4-2 10-2 9.2- 2.8 18.0 +1.7 99.9 0.3 24 23. LSU SEC 5-1 7-5 7.8- 4.2 17.8 +4.1 95.5 0.4 19 24. UNLV MWC 5-1 11-1 9.9- 2.1 21.0 -6.7 >99.9 0.2 28 25. Iowa B10 4-2 10-2 8.7- 3.3 9.4 +5.3 99.2 0.3
Kansas State edged Colorado which didn't help their outlook; interestingly at 5-1 there's still a 0.6% chance they don't get to six wins in the parity-locked Big Twelve. Compare that to Clemson's 99.9%+ chance to reach six wins (they play The Citadel in November) and LSU's 4.5% chance to go 0-6 on their remaining slate! Also interesting is Washington State's #20 projected finish but just 5.5% chance to make the Playoff (no conference championship game) and less than 0.1% chance to win the national title. New top 25 member Iowa (beat Washington 40-16) has almost 10% Playoff odds and 0.3% national title odds.
Since I've added national title odds only for the top 25, it's worth noting that the two teams just outside the top 25 have double digit Playoff odds, both being in the ACC where the conference is pretty up for grabs and the winner will get one of the auto-bids. Louisville's national title odds are 0.4%, Pittsburgh's are just 0.1% due to their different power ratings (the Cards are #11, Pitt #38), which is also why their Playoff odds are similar despite Louisville having 2 losses (the Cards face Miami this weekend). Speaking of losses, USC took their 3rd loss but still has a 3.1% chance to make the expanded Playoff.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 30 26. Louisville ACC 4-2 8-4 7.9- 4.1 10.9 +3.3 96.1 +11.7 41 27. Pittsburgh ACC 6-0 8-4 8.9- 3.1 10.3 +5.8 100.0 +5.6 25 28. Southern Cal B10 3-3 8-4 7.3- 4.7 3.1 -6.8 91.4 +3.1 36 29. Memphis AAc 5-1 10-2 9.5- 2.5 3.1 +0.3 >99.9 +0.6 29 31. Navy AAc 5-0 9-3 9.1- 2.9 5.6 -1.8 99.8 +0.2 58 35. Northern Illinois *MAC 4-2 9-3 8.5- 3.5 0.3 +0.2 99.1 +7.8 52 37. Arizona St B12 5-1 8-4 7.8- 4.2 4.1 +1.8 95.1 +15.7 65 38. Vanderbilt SEC 4-2 7-5 6.7- 5.3 1.3 +0.9 85.0 +36.8 81 39. Wisconsin B10 4-2 8-4 7.1- 4.9 3.5 +3.1 85.8 +37.2 60 43. Cincinnati B12 4-2 7-5 7.1- 4.9 2.2 +1.0 87.2 +17.7
Memphis and Navy are contenders in the American conference, with Navy only having 11 games before the AAC title game which makes things very weird vis-a-vis Army who has become the conference favorite. I'll cross that bridge if it becomes too hard to ignore. Northern Illinois is back as the Mac favorite but their odds of reaching the Playoff are very slim. The four teams above (at the bottom) all gained big in bowl game odds: Arizona State beat Utah, Vanderbilt upset Kentucky on the road and gained 36.8%, Wisconsin crushed Rutgers 42-7 and gained 37.2%, and Cincinnati topped UCF.
The C-USA winner is very unlikely to get a Playoff auto-bid but there's a chance for any conference champ. Right now Sam Houston State is our slight favorite neck-and-neck with Western Kentucky, and the two play Wednesday night. The rest of the teams below are listed due to raising their bowl odds a great deal with a few exceptions: Kentucky's bowl odds took a 29% hit after losing to Vanderbilt, Utah lost to Arizona State, and Washington's loss to Iowa was bad enough to put them under 50% odds.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 42 47. Sam Houston St *CUSA 5-1 10-2 9.0- 3.0 0.2 -0.8 99.8 +0.1 63 48. Western Kentucky CUSA 4-2 9-3 8.4- 3.6 0.1 0.0 99.1 +5.5 76 49. Minnesota B10 4-3 7-5 6.7- 5.3 0.1 0.0 82.2 +33.5 85 51. Buffalo MAC 4-2 9-3 8.3- 3.7 0.0 0.0 98.8 +22.2 70 55. Georgia Southern SUNe 4-2 8-4 7.5- 4.5 0.1 0.0 93.8 +13.0 35 57. Kentucky SEC 3-3 5-7 5.7- 6.3 0.2 -1.3 55.4 -29.4 73 60. Georgia Tech ACC 5-2 6-6 6.6- 5.4 0.2 +0.1 91.4 +25.1 32 61. Utah B12 4-2 6-6 6.5- 5.5 0.6 -8.1 75.0 -14.6 87 62. Florida SEC 3-3 6-6 5.4- 6.6 0.2 +0.1 48.1 +25.4 62 68. Washington B10 4-3 5-7 5.6- 6.4 <0.1 -0.2 48.7 -14.0 94 69. Miami OH MAC 2-4 7-5 6.4- 5.6 0.0 0.0 79.9 +36.2
On the upside, Minnesota added 33.5% by beating UCLA (going from 3-3 to 4-3 helps a lot); Buffalo upset Toledo and looks all but certain to qualify; Georgia Tech beat North Carolina but their remaining schedule is killer (including Notre Dame, Miami, and Georgia!) so they're only at 91.4% despite having 5 wins. Florida lost to Tennessee in overtime but their bowl odds jumped from about 1 in 4 to around 1 in 2 with their record at 3-3. And Miami of Ohio was underwater last week but now things look good after dispatching Eastern Michigan 38-14. Despite being 2-4, they're favored in 5 games and have four home games left.
Below, Liberty is 5-0 but their Playoff odds have fallen to less than 1 in 1000 because quite frankly, they aren't very good. We now expect them to lose three games remaining on their easy schedule, and even going undefeated and winning the C-USA probably doesn't get them a bid. The rest of the field below is out of the Playoff picture too for all intents and purposes and focused on bowl qualification. Maryland and Rutgers both took big hits with losses but the damage to the Terps was horrific in their 37-10 loss at home to Northwestern; their bowl odds dropped from 80% to 40% as our power rating finally figured out they aren't a great team. Northwestern added 32.4% after having single-digit odds last week.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 43 70. Liberty CUSA 5-0 8-3 8.0- 3.0 <0.1 -1.8 97.4 -1.1 39 71. Maryland B10 3-3 4-8 5.2- 6.8 0.1 -3.7 40.0 -40.6 59 74. Virginia ACC 4-2 5-7 5.7- 6.3 0.1 -1.1 51.8 -20.6 88 75. Jacksonville St CUSA 3-3 8-4 6.9- 5.1 0.0 0.0 84.2 +22.4 31 76. Rutgers B10 4-2 6-6 6.2- 5.8 <0.1 -4.5 68.3 -26.1 83 78. Baylor B12 2-4 6-6 5.3- 6.7 <0.1 +0.1 47.7 +10.7 47 81. Arizona B12 3-3 4-8 5.5- 6.5 0.0 -2.2 48.0 -32.5 108 82. Northwestern B10 3-3 5-7 5.3- 6.7 <0.1 +0.1 40.2 +32.4 55 84. Bowling Green MAC 2-4 7-5 6.1- 5.9 0.0 0.0 70.7 -23.5
Arizona lost to BYU 41-19 dropping them to 3-3 and putting them at about 50/50 for bowl qualification, and only favored in one more game going forward in the Big Twelve (Baylor's odds at 2-4 are similar).
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 106 90. Nevada MWC 3-4 7-6 6.3- 6.7 0.0 0.0 45.7 +31.9 80 91. Oregon St P12 4-2 6-6 6.1- 5.9 0.0 -0.1 67.4 -11.7 101 92. Colorado St MWC 3-3 7-5 6.4- 5.6 0.0 0.0 75.6 +30.5 74 93. South Florida AAc 2-4 5-7 5.4- 6.6 0.0 -0.1 49.2 -28.6 100 94. Florida Atlantic AAc 2-4 8-4 5.7- 6.3 0.0 0.0 56.4 +13.8 93 100. North Carolina St ACC 3-4 4-8 4.4- 7.6 0.0 0.0 15.7 -19.4 90 102. Arkansas St SUNw 3-3 4-8 5.1- 6.9 0.0 0.0 36.8 -26.5 95 108. East Carolina AAc 3-3 5-7 5.0- 7.0 0.0 0.0 32.3 -23.7 113 110. San Diego St MWC 3-3 5-7 5.0- 7.0 0.0 0.0 30.7 +11.3 99 115. Wake Forest ACC 2-4 2-10 3.3- 8.7 0.0 0.0 3.9 -15.5
The teams above mostly lost bowl odds, with some exceptions. Wake Forest falls under 5% after losing big to Clemson. And Nevada beat Oregon State, sending the teams in different directions.
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