The biggest game of the year so far was a wild one but in the end it was just about what we expected so there isn't much fallout from Alabama's crazy 41-34 win. Ole Miss lost but they're still in (for now). Not much happened except for some shuffling around and adjusting odds for the Projected Top 25 and projected 12-team Playoff.
Alabama did gain quite a bit in Playoff Odds, a bit surprising but now they're well above 90%! I didn't expect to see that until they were 6-0 at least. Georgia's odds dropped just 2% and they're still over 50%. They even moved up a spot thanks to Kentucky's upset of Mississippi, the real loser for the week down 23.7% but still the last at-large selection—if the SEC can really get 5 teams in. Tennessee (up almost 10% despite not playing) and Texas (down a bit after a tepid win over Mississippi State) are clearly ahead of Ole Miss at this point if the conference has "only" 4 bids.
Ohio State is still the standard bearer for the Big Ten's teams, and the Buckeyes are at #2 after trouncing Michigan State 38-7. Oregon beat UCLA 34-13 and stayed at #5, while Penn State struggled early with Illinois before beating the Illini 21-7. The Lions a bit of ground in playoff odds while the Ducks gained.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 1 1. Alabama *SEC 4-0 11-1 10.9- 1.1 93.3 +10.7 >99.9 0.0 3 2. Ohio State *B10 4-0 12-0 10.7- 1.3 83.3 +5.9 >99.9 0.0 4 3. Tennessee SEC 4-0 11-1 10.7- 1.3 82.9 +9.5 >99.9 0.0 2 4. Texas SEC 5-0 12-0 10.8- 1.2 82.7 -0.2 >99.9 0.0 5 5. Oregon B10 4-0 11-1 10.4- 1.6 73.9 +3.6 99.9 +0.3 6 6. Miami FL *ACC 5-0 12-0 10.8- 1.2 66.6 +1.8 >99.9 0.0 8 7. Georgia SEC 3-1 9-3 9.2- 2.8 55.2 -2.0 99.9 +0.1 9 8. Notre Dame Ind 4-1 11-1 9.8- 2.2 55.9 +3.0 99.9 +0.3 11 9. Iowa St *B12 4-0 12-0 9.9- 2.1 49.3 +6.4 99.2 +1.9 10 10. Penn State B10 4-0 10-2 9.7- 2.3 43.9 -4.5 99.4 +0.4 7 11. Mississippi SEC 4-1 11-1 9.3- 2.7 40.0 -23.7 99.3 -0.5 16 12. Boise St *MWC 3-1 11-1 9.8- 2.2 45.5 +14.0 99.9 +1.3
Outside of the SEC and Big Ten, Miami's miracle finish kept them firmly in the race and the Hurricanes now have a 2 in 3 chance to make the 12-team field. Notre Dame got a solid win over Louisville (31-24) and has playoff odds similar to Georgia's. Iowa State remained the favorite in the parity-plagued Big Twelve with a shutout of Houston.
Boise State won the game that I called the "impact" game of the week and gained 14% in Playoff Odds, enough to put them in the top 12 (no more charity for the Mountain West). Boise beat Washington State 45-24 but the Cougars remain in the hunt—at least for a top 25 finish. Their Playoff odds were roughly cut in half as expected as they have no conference championship game, unlike James Madison who soared to #19 after beating Ball State 63-7. But they're less of a threat to Boise and fellow Mountain West team UNLV, who lost their quarterback to a NIL dispute but still thrashed Fresno State 59-14. The Rebels jumped into the top 25 at #16 and the Boise-UNLV combo is going to make it hard for any other conference champ to nab that 5th conference playoff auto-bid. Tulane, for example, just entered the conversation but has single-digit playoff odds because their 2 losses already drag them down, meaning the American is unlikely to have a Playoff team this year.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 23 13. Brigham Young B12 5-0 10-2 9.6- 2.4 37.2 +18.3 99.6 +4.6 19 14. Indiana B10 5-0 11-1 10.0- 2.0 32.8 +14.0 99.9 +1.2 21 15. Kansas St B12 4-1 10-2 9.0- 3.0 31.4 +12.3 98.5 +4.5 26 16. UNLV MWC 4-0 11-1 10.4- 1.6 38.2 +19.7 >99.9 +3.2 13 17. Southern Cal B10 3-1 10-2 8.5- 3.5 33.8 +3.7 94.4 +2.7 15 18. Clemson ACC 3-1 11-1 9.0- 3.0 25.3 +1.7 98.5 +2.5 25 19. James Madison *SUNe 4-0 12-0 10.6- 1.4 24.2 +11.0 99.9 +0.9 14 20. Washington St P12 4-1 11-1 9.7- 2.3 10.7 -8.2 99.8 -0.1 17 21. Louisville ACC 3-1 9-3 8.1- 3.9 20.0 -6.6 92.1 +0.4 20 22. Missouri SEC 4-0 9-3 8.5- 3.5 14.9 -1.1 97.4 -0.4 22 23. Michigan B10 4-1 8-4 7.4- 4.6 10.2 -4.8 90.7 +2.3 33 24. Tulane *AAc 3-2 10-2 8.8- 3.2 6.7 +2.4 99.1 +4.7 12 25. Utah B12 4-1 9-3 8.0- 4.0 14.7 -22.5 92.1 -5.2
The Big Twelve is pretty wide open, and BYU and Kansas State made big gains last weekend. The Cougars held off Baylor while the Wildcats beat Oklahoma State 42-20, a result that also helped BYU since the Cougars have a 38-9 win over the Wildcats. Utah went the other direction after losing at home to Arizona, shedding 22.5% and falling to #25. Indiana beat Maryland and is now officially the "it" team in the Big Ten (Illinois and Nebraska having fallen off). They're even projected ahead of USC now, and Michigan can barely hold a lead so they lost ground.
LSU is outside the top 25 but has double-digit playoff odds due to the opportunity their schedule affords them. Meanwhile Oklahoma had a decent week topping Auburn while Kentucky's 20-17 win at Ole Miss made their bowl bid a near-certainty (up 31.4%). Two Big Twelve teams fell out of the top 25: Oklahoma State after taking their 2nd loss to Kansas State, and Central Florida after being upset BIG by Colorado. Arizona's win over Utah revitalized their chances but a prior 31-7 loss to K-State will hold them back for a while until we see whether the burgeoning pecking order holds or not. And add SMU to the title threats in the ACC after their 42-16 win over FSU. They're still behind Miami, Clemson, and Louisville but their only loss is to undefeated BYU.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 28 26. LSU SEC 4-1 8-4 7.6- 4.4 10.9 +1.6 89.5 +6.1 40 27. SMU ACC 4-1 10-2 8.2- 3.8 7.5 +2.8 94.5 +10.9 36 28. Oklahoma SEC 4-1 6-6 7.2- 4.8 7.5 +1.9 88.8 +11.2 48 33. Arizona B12 3-1 8-4 7.7- 4.3 8.7 +4.4 87.5 +15.5 31 34. Liberty *CUSA 4-0 10-1 9.2- 1.8 3.8 -3.8 99.0 -0.3 30 35. Memphis AAc 4-1 10-2 9.0- 3.0 2.9 -4.0 99.2 +0.3 18 36. Central Florida B12 3-1 10-2 7.1- 4.9 7.1 -18.2 78.4 -16.1 69 41. Kentucky SEC 3-2 7-5 6.8- 5.2 1.0 +0.7 85.1 +31.4 24 44. Oklahoma St B12 3-2 9-3 6.9- 5.1 3.2 -10.1 79.1 -8.8
Liberty had the strangest result, losing half their Playoff odds (down 3.8% to 3.8%) due to their game with Appalachian State being cancelled. Liberty's schedule is perhaps the easiest in the country and playing only 11 games won't help them gain traction even as an undefeated C-USA champ.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 49 39. Army AAc 4-0 9-3 9.1- 2.9 3.2 +1.2 98.7 +6.1 58 45. Navy AAc 4-0 8-4 8.5- 3.5 3.6 +1.7 96.5 +10.8
Above, see Army and Navy, both undefeated after 4 games. What happens in the 12-team era if both go undefeated and meet in the American conference championship game? Well, it's a bit weird. Yes, they would play for the AAC title, both holding 11-0 records each with a win over Notre Dame. So the winner would have a good chance of making the Playoff. But then they'd play again on December 14 for the annual Army-Navy game. Just imagine Army winning the AAC title in 4 overtimes and becoming the 5th conference auto-bid for the Playoff. Then they meet Navy in December and lose 56-0. Then they go on a crazy Playoff run and win the national championship—while 12-1 Navy holds a devastating win over them. Not very likely but due to the weird scheduling here, we could realistically see a Playoff team lose BEFORE the Playoff even starts!
In the section below, a whole mess of teams improved their bowl odds, and no one more than Colorado who beat UCF 48-21. The Buffaloes were around 40% in bowl odds but are now above 75%. And look at UConn, suddenly a good team at 3-2 after crushing a good Buffalo team 47-3.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 82 48. Colorado B12 4-1 5-7 6.9- 5.1 2.6 +2.1 77.4 +36.7 65 54. Louisiana-Lafayette SUNw 3-1 9-3 8.2- 3.8 1.3 +0.3 93.8 +12.9 77 55. Connecticut Ind 3-2 9-3 8.1- 3.9 0.0 0.0 95.9 +19.8 61 57. TCU B12 3-2 6-6 6.5- 5.5 1.1 -0.1 70.7 +12.3 60 59. Duke ACC 5-0 6-6 7.7- 4.3 0.8 -0.1 92.3 +12.3 70 60. North Texas AAc 4-1 9-3 7.8- 4.2 0.7 +0.3 92.1 +12.6 81 70. Georgia Southern SUNe 3-2 6-6 6.8- 5.2 0.1 -0.1 77.7 +17.6 83 78. Ohio U. MAC 3-2 8-4 7.2- 4.8 0.0 -0.1 86.0 +14.0 105 87. Old Dominion SUNe 1-3 5-7 5.0- 7.0 <0.1 0.0 40.6 +16.2 103 88. Louisiana-Monroe SUNw 3-1 4-8 6.0- 6.0 <0.1 0.0 57.7 +20.4 95 89. Florida Int'l CUSA 2-3 6-6 6.0- 6.0 0.0 -0.1 63.9 +13.4
Below, the opposite: Teams that are flailing and seeing their seasons start to fall apart. Auburn's loss to Oklahoma left them searching for future SEC wins, while Kansas has the same problem in the Big Twelve after falling to TCU for a 1-4 start. And speaking of 1-4 starts, Florida State has only a 7.4% chance at a bowl game—half of Wake Forest's odds, incredibly.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 84 93. Auburn SEC 2-3 4-8 4.5- 7.5 0.0 -0.1 22.4 -14.5 87 94. Kansas B12 1-4 3-9 3.7- 8.3 <0.1 -0.1 13.8 -19.6 92 101. Florida St ACC 1-4 4-8 3.7- 8.3 0.0 -0.1 7.4 -12.2 93 103. Wake Forest ACC 1-3 2-10 3.6- 8.4 0.0 -0.1 14.7 -16.7 99 106. Georgia St SUNe 2-2 2-10 4.4- 7.6 0.0 -0.1 24.7 -16.4 109 109. Appalachian St SUNe 2-2 3-8 3.7- 7.3 0.0 -0.1 11.8 -17.3 100 113. Troy SUNw 1-4 2-10 3.7- 8.3 0.0 0.0 14.4 -20.6 111 114. Tulsa AAc 2-3 2-10 4.2- 7.8 0.0 0.0 20.8 -16.3 113 115. San Diego St MWC 1-3 3-9 3.8- 8.2 0.0 -0.1 14.2 -14.2 114 118. Alabama-Birmingham AAc 1-3 3-9 3.5- 8.5 0.0 0.0 10.7 -13.8 116 124. Air Force MWC 1-3 2-10 3.3- 8.7 0.0 0.0 11.5 -12.1 117 127. New Mexico St CUSA 1-4 2-10 3.0- 9.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 -16.3 134 134. Kent St MAC 0-5 0-12 1.2-10.8 0.0 0.0 <0.1 -0.5
And Kent State's 0-5 start gives them a less than 0.1% chance to make a bowl game. Their schedule gets a lot easier but they have to go 6-1 or 7-0.
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