Week 5 Preview: Alabama - Georgia is the big game, but Washington State vs. Boise may be more impactful

Washington State vs. Boise State is the more important game in terms of who makes the Playoff. Hear me out.

Alabama vs. Georgia is bigger for determining the pecking order within the Playoff, but both the winner and loser will still be favored to make the Playoff and will have every opportunity to recover from any damage. 

You might not be thinking either the Cougars or the Broncos are very much in the running—after all, Washington State has no real conference and Boise State has a loss already. But you'd be wrong: the Broncos are currently projected to make the Playoff as the 5th-ranked conference champ, while the Cougars are #14 in our Top 25 projection which places them only a few spots away.

                                      Projected Record                 Odds
 LW  Rnk Team                 Conf  Curr  Chalk  Average   Playoff% %chg   Bowl%  %chg
 12  13. Southern Cal         B10    2-1  10-2   8.3- 3.7    30.1   -7.6   91.7   +0.1
 15  14. Washington St        P12    4-0  11-1  10.0- 2.0    18.9   -1.9   99.9   +0.8
 18  15. Clemson              ACC    2-1  11-1   8.7- 3.3    23.6   +2.2   96.0   +3.3
 17  16. Boise St            *MWC    2-1  11-1   9.3- 2.7    31.5   +2.3   98.6   +1.5
 22  17. Louisville           ACC    3-0   9-3   8.4- 3.6    26.6   +3.6   91.7   +2.7

Both have a tough path ahead, though. Boise State not only has to win their conference, but rank ahead of any other non-power conference champs for that 5th spot. Right now that's looking good but James Madison, Memphis, or Liberty might jump ahead if they slip. And UNLV is looking like big competition in the MWC.

So the Broncos can't afford another loss or their road gets much tougher—probably too tough. This might be an elimination game for them.

Likewise for Washington State, but even more so. The Cougars are ranked so high not necessarily because they're so good, but because their easy schedule gives them an opportunity to go undefeated and slip in the Playoff without a conference championship. A loss to Boise—or any loss—crushes their odds.

So while Alabama vs. Georgia is the biggest game, this one is the only near-elimination game among teams that have a solid, realistic chance at a Playoff spot. 

Notre Dame (#9) plays #17 Louisville in what is probably an elimination game for the 2-1 Irish, though not for the 3-0 Cardinals. #21 Kansas State (3-1) faces #24 Oklahoma State (3-1) and the loser there is in trouble, but since both are power conference teams even the loser has a chance to play their way back in. At this point in the season elimination games are few and far between with the new 12-team format.

Boise State vs. Washington State comes about as close as one can to a real Playoff eliminator in week 5.