Finally a few upsets (last week was about all chalk) and our projected Playoff lineup changed a bit. Namely, Iowa State moved in to replace Kansas State who lost big. Big moves from Tennessee and Miami who were already in. Here's my week 4 recap.
We have a new top seed, Alabama! Check back next week after they've played Georgia, but based on the action so far, the home team looks like they should be the favorite. The Tide didn't even play last weekend while former #1 Texas crushed ULM 51-3. The Longhorns still have the best Playoff odds, now almost 83% but Alabama projects ahead on average, very slightly. The rest of the SEC Playoff squad did well, especially Tennessee who beat Oklahoma on the road and gained over 19% to jump to #4—but still only #3 in-conference. Ole Miss took care of Georgia Southern 52-13 which barely budged their odds, but they did pass Georgia who was idle and still lost ground—probably because future opponents Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and Ole Miss are all looking so good? Again, this weekend's game at Tuscaloosa will shake things up one way or another.
Projected Record Odds (9/22/2024) LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 2 1. Alabama *SEC 3-0 12-0 10.5- 1.5 82.6 +6.3 >99.9 +0.1 1 2. Texas SEC 4-0 12-0 10.8- 1.2 82.9 +6.4 >99.9 0.0 3 3. Ohio State *B10 3-0 12-0 10.5- 1.5 77.4 +2.9 99.9 +0.2 7 4. Tennessee SEC 4-0 10-2 10.6- 1.4 73.4 +19.1 >99.9 +0.1 4 5. Oregon B10 3-0 11-1 10.3- 1.7 70.3 +1.5 99.6 -0.1 11 6. Miami FL *ACC 4-0 12-0 10.6- 1.4 64.8 +20.8 99.9 +1.2 6 7. Mississippi SEC 4-0 12-0 10.3- 1.7 63.7 +3.0 99.8 +0.1 5 8. Georgia SEC 3-0 9-3 9.4- 2.6 57.2 -3.6 99.8 0.0 8 9. Notre Dame Ind 3-1 11-1 9.7- 2.3 52.9 0.0 99.6 -0.1 10 10. Penn State B10 3-0 10-2 9.7- 2.3 48.4 +2.6 99.0 +0.6 14 11. Iowa St *B12 3-0 11-1 9.5- 2.5 42.9 +12.0 97.3 +4.4
The Big Ten was less interesting. Ohio State posted a solid 49-14 win over Marshall, and Penn State beat punching bag Kent State 56-0 (the Flashes lost to Tennessee 71-0). Both held their spots while idle Oregon fell to #5.
Miami, on the other hand, used a fantastic 2nd half to crush USF 50-15 (Alabama beat USF 42-16, also on late scoring) and jumped to #6 gaining over 20% in Playoff odds as the Canes distanced themselves from their ACC peers—for now. Independent Notre Dame held steady after a not-so-spectacular 28-3 win over Miami of Ohio.
And Iowa State moved into a Playoff spot after beating Arkansas State 52-7. Compare that to Michigan's 28-18 win over the same Red Wolves and you see why the Cyclones are ranked 1st in the Big Twelve. Especially after Michigan upset USC and moved back into the projected Top 25 (surprisingly USC was hardly affected, dropping 7% and one spot). Of course, it was Kansas State's huge 31-7 loss to BYU cleared the path for the Cyclones, as well as Utah who is right behind, and UCF who is also in the mix. Utah beat Oklahoma State, who held on at #24. Kansas State lost almost 30% but remained ahead of BYU who jumped from #47 to #23, up 14% in Playoff Odds. Yes, there is a lot of Big Twelve just outside the Playoff zone.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 13 12. Utah B12 4-0 11-1 9.3- 2.7 37.2 +6.1 97.3 +4.5 12 13. Southern Cal B10 2-1 10-2 8.3- 3.7 30.1 -7.6 91.7 +0.1 15 14. Washington St P12 4-0 11-1 10.0- 2.0 18.9 -1.9 99.9 +0.8 18 15. Clemson ACC 2-1 11-1 8.7- 3.3 23.6 +2.2 96.0 +3.3 17 16. Boise St *MWC 2-1 11-1 9.3- 2.7 31.5 +2.3 98.6 +1.5 22 17. Louisville ACC 3-0 9-3 8.4- 3.6 26.6 +3.6 91.7 +2.7 21 18. Central Florida B12 3-0 11-1 8.9- 3.1 25.3 +4.8 94.5 +1.9 23 19. Indiana B10 4-0 11-1 9.3- 2.7 18.8 +6.2 98.7 +3.7 16 20. Missouri SEC 4-0 9-3 8.6- 3.4 16.0 -6.8 97.8 +2.0 9 21. Kansas St B12 3-1 10-2 8.5- 3.5 19.1 -27.9 94.0 -3.8 28 22. Michigan B10 3-1 8-4 7.5- 4.5 15.0 +4.0 88.4 +10.6 47 23. Brigham Young B12 4-0 9-3 8.7- 3.3 18.9 +14.0 95.0 +22.9 19 24. Oklahoma St B12 3-1 10-2 7.8- 4.2 13.3 -11.7 87.9 -3.0 41 25. James Madison *SUNe 3-0 12-0 9.9- 2.1 13.2 +6.4 99.0 +8.0
The ACC is represented here too with a resurgent Clemson and still undefeated Louisville, but it's Boise State that makes the current field as projected Mountain West champ. That puts them ahead of Washington State, who can't win a conference championship regardless of how many teams the Pac-12 adds for next season; Indiana, no matter how impressive the Hoosiers have been; and Missouri, who is seemingly fading out of the SEC race just as conference games begin (they beat Vandy in overtime last weekend). The Broncos play Washington State this weekend, a huge one for both of their Playoff hopes, as a 2nd loss for Boise puts them in grave danger while a single loss might strike the Cougars from consideration given their easy slate (and no conf. championship game).
The best competition for Boise State's 5th auto-bid spot might now be James Madison, who powered their way into the top 25 by crushing North Carolina 70-50. Other candidates just outside the Top 25 include UNLV, who could win the MWC themselves and have almost a 20% Playoff odds by our reckoning; Texas State, who would have to beat James Madison to win the Sun Belt; Memphis, who got their odds rocked by a loss at Navy; and Liberty, who should go 12-0 but hasn't looked good so far. Then there's Bowling Green, our favorite in the MAC despite a 1-2 start that includes 7-point losses at Penn State and Texas A&M (a win that dragged the Aggies out of the top 25!). Previous MAC favorite Northern Illinois lost in overtime to Buffalo.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 26 26. UNLV MWC 3-0 10-2 9.3- 2.7 18.5 +3.8 96.7 +1.0 24 27. Texas A&M SEC 3-1 10-2 7.9- 4.1 10.1 -4.3 91.5 +2.4 31 29. Texas St-San Marcos SUNw 2-1 11-1 9.0- 3.0 11.0 +3.2 96.3 +1.6 20 30. Memphis *AAc 3-1 10-2 9.2- 2.8 6.9 -13.1 98.9 -0.7 30 31. Liberty *CUSA 4-0 12-0 10.0- 2.0 7.6 -2.0 99.3 +1.3 42 32. Iowa B10 3-1 9-3 7.9- 4.1 5.2 +1.5 90.5 +11.9 54 35. Rutgers B10 3-0 9-3 8.1- 3.9 7.8 +3.4 88.2 +17.0 25 36. Oklahoma SEC 3-1 6-6 6.8- 5.2 5.6 -9.3 77.6 -4.3 46 38. Bowling Green *MAC 1-2 10-2 8.1- 3.9 2.9 -0.5 93.4 +7.7 57 39. Illinois B10 4-0 8-4 7.7- 4.3 4.9 +2.7 90.5 +17.8 59 40. SMU ACC 3-1 10-2 7.5- 4.5 4.7 +2.9 83.6 +19.9 27 42. California ACC 3-1 9-3 7.7- 4.3 4.5 -8.2 87.4 -3.3 29 43. Northern Illinois MAC 2-1 8-4 8.0- 4.0 3.7 -5.6 90.7 -3.0
Oklahoma fell out of the top 25 with the loss to Tennessee, while Big Ten teams Iowa, Rutgers, and Illinois made big jumps in Bowl odds if not Playoff odds. SMU also jumped by beating TCU 66-42, but California sank with a loss to struggling FSU.
Now we focus on teams that improved (or hurt) their bowl eligibility odds. Virginia Tech lost to Rutgers and fell double digits, as did fellow ACC teams Syracuse and North Carolina, though all three are still well above 50%. Duke went the opposite direction with a 45-17 win over MTSU and now has a 4 in 5 chance of post-season play.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 35 50. Virginia Tech ACC 2-2 8-4 6.4- 5.6 1.9 -4.7 68.7 -10.6 33 52. Nebraska B10 3-1 7-5 6.7- 5.3 1.7 -5.7 74.7 -10.7 67 55. Arkansas SEC 3-1 5-7 6.4- 5.6 2.2 +0.7 68.5 +19.9 85 58. Navy AAc 3-0 7-5 7.6- 4.4 1.9 +1.5 85.7 +26.2 70 60. Duke ACC 4-0 6-6 7.2- 4.8 0.9 0.0 80.0 +10.9 39 61. TCU B12 2-2 7-5 6.0- 6.0 1.2 -5.3 58.4 -16.9 78 62. Cincinnati B12 3-1 5-7 6.2- 5.8 1.5 +0.8 62.8 +18.3 72 63. Western Kentucky CUSA 3-1 8-4 7.5- 4.5 0.5 0.0 87.9 +11.2 48 64. Syracuse ACC 2-1 5-7 6.2- 5.8 1.4 -3.7 61.7 -12.7 36 66. North Carolina ACC 3-1 7-5 6.7- 5.3 0.6 -5.6 69.9 -15.9 83 67. Buffalo MAC 3-1 7-5 7.6- 4.4 0.2 +0.1 86.1 +19.3
Nebraska was looking like a breakout team before losing to Illinois in overtime; their Playoff odds plummeted but they still have a 75% chance to make a bowl game. Navy's solid win over a highly-rated Memphis team boosted the Midshipmen's bowl odds by over 25%. TCU and Cincy meet after opposite results, with the Bearcats blanking Houston 34-0. Western Kentucky upset Toledo, while Buffalo beat NIU and has a shot at the MAC title; the Bulls only loss is to Missouri.
Arkansas topped Auburn sending the Tigers reeling (-23.5% bowl odds) and the Razorbacks soaring (+19.9%). The biggest move percentagewise was UConn who beat Florida Atlantic 48-14 and jumped from under 50% odds to over 75%. The Owls dropped from over 60% to around 40%. Beating Coastal Carolina soundly was enough to boost Virginia almost 20%, likewise North Texas clobbered lowly Wyoming and jumped to nearly 80% odds.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 87 70. North Texas AAc 3-1 8-4 7.2- 4.8 0.4 +0.3 79.5 +19.5 90 73. Virginia ACC 3-1 4-8 5.7- 6.3 0.6 +0.4 51.1 +19.4 84 76. Eastern Michigan MAC 3-1 7-5 7.3- 4.7 0.1 0.0 80.9 +13.0 103 77. Connecticut Ind 2-2 7-5 6.8- 5.2 0.0 0.0 76.1 +29.0 58 84. Auburn SEC 2-2 4-8 5.0- 7.0 0.1 -1.1 36.9 -23.5 94 85. Stanford ACC 2-1 3-9 5.1- 6.9 0.4 +0.1 39.9 +11.8 68 87. Kansas B12 1-3 4-8 4.7- 7.3 0.2 -1.1 33.4 -16.0 107 89. South Alabama SUNw 2-2 6-6 6.0- 6.0 0.1 0.0 60.3 +26.6 77 91. Minnesota B10 2-2 2-10 4.6- 7.4 0.1 -0.7 30.2 -13.5 88 102. Florida Atlantic AAc 1-3 5-7 5.1- 6.9 0.0 -0.1 40.5 -22.3 115 104. Jacksonville St CUSA 1-3 5-7 5.0- 7.0 0.0 0.0 39.4 +11.2 75 109. Appalachian St SUNe 2-2 4-8 4.5- 7.5 <0.1 -0.5 29.1 -33.0
South Alabama had another big weekend, and this one was worth more than their 87-10 win over FCS Northwestern State. The Jaguars upset Appalachian State in a big way, 48-14, storming up 26.6% while App State dropped a whopping 33%. Power conference teams in this range will generally struggle to make a bowl due to their schedule, and this week Stanford was looking better while Kansas (lost to West Virginia) was hurting along with Minnesota (fell 31-14 at home to Iowa).
The teams below didn't have much in the way of bowl odds to start with and they all got worse. The biggest drop was from Utah State who lost to lowly Temple 45-29 to go 1-3. In terms of percentage of their percentage, Southern Miss was roughly the biggest loser, dropping from 14% to 2.7% after a 44-7 loss to Jacksonville State, who themselves gained 11.2%
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Average Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 114 117. New Mexico St CUSA 1-3 4-8 4.0- 8.0 0.0 0.0 21.8 -12.0 104 120. Utah St MWC 1-3 3-9 3.6- 8.4 0.0 -0.1 13.7 -23.4 112 122. Wyoming MWC 0-4 4-8 3.0- 9.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 -16.2 124 124. Ball St MAC 1-2 2-10 3.5- 8.5 0.0 0.0 13.1 -10.4 122 128. Middle Tennessee St CUSA 1-3 3-9 3.5- 8.5 0.0 0.0 13.1 -13.2 123 129. Rice AAc 1-3 2-10 3.2- 8.8 0.0 -0.1 9.3 -13.5 130 132. Southern Miss SUNw 1-3 1-11 2.4- 9.6 0.0 0.0 2.7 -11.3 133 133. Massachusetts Ind 1-3 2-10 2.4- 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.8 134 134. Kent St MAC 0-4 0-12 1.5-10.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 -1.8
UMass almost beaat Central Connecticut, an FCS team, but that loss dropped them to 0.3% bowl odds. They'd have to go 5-3 from here, and even though we expect them to get another win, at 1-3 their odds are still lower than 0-4 Kent State's 0.6% odds, even though the Flashes don't have a chalk win on their slate and have to go 6-2 from here. As I noted before UMass has a killer schedule as an independent (everyone wanted to play them) while Kent State's MAC schedule is a breeze for the most part.
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