Better late than never, it's the Playoff Odds and Bowl Odds update for week 3.
No change in the composition of the projected Playoff 12, but the order is shuffled a bit. Texas leapt to the top seed on the strength of a 56-7 win over UTSA, with Alabama close behind as the SEC's #2 team. The Tide beat Wisconsin 42-10 in Madison which added +12% to their Playoff Odds, but they got an assist from Kentucky who almost beat previous #3 Georgia. The Bulldogs held on 13-12 but lost almost 9% in Playoff Odds and fell into a virtual tie with Ole Miss and Tennessee in the SEC pecking order. The Vols performed spectacularly yet again, trouncing Kent State 71-0 after taking a 65-0 halftime lead. That's still five SEC teams favored to make the cut, and comfortably too.
The Big Ten has three teams "in" right now but Ohio State and Penn State were idle. The Buckeyes dropped to #3 since being idle doesn't allow for much of a gain and 3-0 is better than 2-0. It seems to have really hurt Penn State who drops to #10 and loses over 7% in Playoff Odds. Looking through their schedule some of their future opponents looked good (Maryland, Minnesota) while others flopped (UCLA, Washington). Probably it's a hangover from the previous week's dismal Bowling Green game. The Lions have yet to play a good game and they have Kent State next so it's going to be hard to do anything impressive. Oregon, on the other hand, beat up on Oregon State 49-14 which kept them from having a hangover from their first two poor performance week. The Ducks treaded water at #4.
Projected Record Odds thru 9/17 LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 2 1. Texas *SEC 3-0 12-0 10.7- 1.3 76.5 +4.5 >99.9 +0.1 5 2. Alabama SEC 3-0 12-0 10.3- 1.7 76.3 +11.8 99.8 +1.5 1 3. Ohio State *B10 2-0 11-1 10.4- 1.6 74.5 +2.0 99.7 +0.1 4 4. Oregon B10 3-0 12-0 10.4- 1.6 68.8 +0.3 99.7 +0.7 3 5. Georgia SEC 3-0 10-2 9.6- 2.4 60.8 -8.9 99.8 +0.4 6 6. Mississippi SEC 3-0 11-1 10.3- 1.7 60.7 +6.1 99.7 +1.7 8 7. Tennessee SEC 3-0 10-2 10.0- 2.0 54.3 +15.0 99.8 +1.2 9 8. Notre Dame Ind 2-1 11-1 9.8- 2.2 52.9 +13.1 99.7 +2.5 10 9. Kansas St *B12 3-0 11-1 9.8- 2.2 47.0 +11.9 97.8 +4.9 7 10. Penn State B10 2-0 11-1 9.6- 2.4 45.8 -7.1 98.4 +0.5 12 11. Miami FL *ACC 3-0 11-1 9.8- 2.2 44.0 +13.8 98.7 +5.2
Notre Dame, on the other hand, made up some ground loss by their loss to Northern Illinois as they crushed Purdue 66-7 on the road. The Irish gained double digits in Playoff Odds, as did Kansas State who trounced Arizona 31-7, keeping the Wildcats in the driver's seat as the Big Twelve favorite. And Miami furthered their ACC title hopes with a solid 62-0 shutout of Ball State.
Outside the Playoff bubble, USC was another idle Big Ten team but Indiana made a huge move into the projected final top 25. The Hoosiers beat UCLA 42-13 and in their three games have outscored opponents 150-23. Many are touting Nebraska and/or Illinois as the sleeper Big Ten teams but so far it looks like Indiana.
Several Big Twelve teams are close to the Playoff zone: Utah, who beat Utah State 38-21 without Cam Rising, and Iowa State, idle after their big win at Iowa, are both in the projected top 15. Oklahoma State beat Tulsa handily as expected, while UCF edged TCU in a big 35-34 comeback win.
Projected Record Odds thru 9/17 LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 11 12. Southern Cal B10 2-0 10-2 8.8- 3.2 37.7 +2.8 91.6 +3.7 14 13. Utah B12 3-0 11-1 8.8- 3.2 31.1 +1.6 92.8 +2.7 15 14. Iowa St B12 2-0 11-1 8.9- 3.1 30.9 +3.1 92.9 +0.2 23 15. Washington St P12 3-0 11-1 9.8- 2.2 20.8 +7.2 99.1 +5.5 13 16. Missouri SEC 3-0 10-2 8.7- 3.3 22.8 -5.5 95.8 +4.1 16 17. Boise St *MWC 1-1 11-1 9.2- 2.8 29.2 +1.7 97.1 +0.9 17 18. Clemson ACC 1-1 11-1 8.6- 3.4 21.4 -0.6 92.7 +2.8 18 19. Oklahoma St B12 3-0 10-2 8.5- 3.5 25.0 +1.4 90.9 +2.2 24 20. Memphis *AAc 3-0 11-1 10.1- 1.9 20.0 +3.1 99.6 +2.9 29 21. Central Florida B12 3-0 10-2 8.7- 3.3 20.5 +6.2 92.6 +10.2 19 22. Louisville ACC 2-0 10-2 8.3- 3.7 23.0 -1.2 89.0 +1.3 42 23. Indiana B10 3-0 10-2 8.8- 3.2 12.6 +7.2 95.0 +18.0 25 24. Texas A&M SEC 2-1 10-2 8.0- 4.0 14.4 -1.6 89.1 +5.7 20 25. Oklahoma SEC 3-0 7-5 7.3- 4.7 14.9 -5.3 81.9 +0.7
Boise State remains the favorite to take the 5th auto-bid, but Memphis made a good case by beating Florida State last weekend. The real surprise in the top 25 is probably Washington State, who doesn't have a shot at an auto-bid from the 2-team (soon to be 6-team) Pac-12. The Cougars beat rival Washington in Seattle and are up to #15! Having no conference title game—and a very easy schedule—doesn't help with the Committee, but going 11-1 could do it.
ACC hopefuls Clemson and Louisville were both idle. Missouri, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma are in the top 25 but they'll be hard-pressed to make the Playoff with five SEC teams slated to finish in the top seven!
Just outside the Top 25 we have a number of possible conference champs, led by Northern Illinois who was idle but added to their Playoff odds, probably due to Notre Dame's big win over Purdue boosting NIU's profile. Liberty of the C-USA on the other hand hasn't impressed in any of their three wins, something they have to do given their terrible SOS; the Flames drop out of the Top 25 in a pretty big way. Texas State is still the favorite to win the Sun Belt despite the loss to Arizona State. Joining Liberty in dropping out of the Top 25 is Michigan, who also hasn't played a good game this year; the Wolverines beat Arkansas State 28-18.
Projected Record Odds thru 9/17 LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 45 26. UNLV MWC 3-0 10-2 9.0- 3.0 14.7 +7.3 95.7 +15.3 27 27. California ACC 3-0 10-2 8.6- 3.4 12.7 -2.7 90.7 +4.3 21 28. Michigan B10 2-1 8-4 7.0- 5.0 11.0 -5.3 77.8 -2.4 33 29. Northern Illinois *MAC 2-0 9-3 8.8- 3.2 9.3 +3.0 93.7 +4.1 22 30. Liberty *CUSA 3-0 12-0 9.7- 2.3 9.6 -6.9 98.0 +0.6 28 31. Texas St-San Marcos *SUNw 2-1 11-1 8.9- 3.1 7.8 -5.7 94.7 +0.3 34 32. LSU SEC 2-1 7-5 7.1- 4.9 8.4 -1.1 78.9 +11.1 39 33. Nebraska B10 3-0 8-4 7.7- 4.3 7.4 -0.2 85.4 +10.8
Three teams pushed toward the top 25, with UNLV leading the charge with an upset of Kansas in Kansas City; the Rebels will be Boise State's top threat in the Mountain West. LSU gutted out a win at South Carolina, and Nebraska continued to roll beating perennial FCS power Northern Iowa 34-3.
If anyone's going to challenge Northern Illinois in the MAC it will probably be Toledo, who crushed Mississippi State 41-7, which was a lot worse than Arizona State beat the Bulldogs. But ASU pulled off a minor upset of Texas State on the road, and are 3-0 along with another surprise team, BYU who trounced Wyoming 34-14.
Projected Record Odds thru 9/17 LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 66 43. Toledo MAC 3-0 10-2 8.7- 3.3 4.7 +2.5 92.4 +16.2 58 45. Fresno St MWC 2-1 8-4 7.9- 4.1 5.0 +1.9 87.6 +13.2 60 47. Brigham Young B12 3-0 4-8 6.9- 5.1 4.9 +0.9 72.1 +13.2 67 50. South Florida AAc 2-1 8-4 7.6- 4.4 2.9 +1.1 86.0 +13.1 63 52. Maryland B10 2-1 7-5 6.5- 5.5 3.1 +0.4 67.5 +12.9 62 53. Pittsburgh ACC 3-0 6-6 7.0- 5.0 3.3 +0.1 74.0 +13.0 72 56. Arizona St B12 3-0 4-8 6.4- 5.6 3.4 +1.3 61.9 +15.3 81 61. Sam Houston St CUSA 2-1 9-3 7.4- 4.6 0.9 +0.4 80.7 +16.9 46 68. Kansas B12 1-2 8-4 5.5- 6.5 1.3 -4.7 49.4 -19.1 53 71. Washington B10 2-1 4-8 5.5- 6.5 1.3 -4.2 46.6 -12.1
Fresno State, South Florida, Maryland, Sam Houston State and Pitt all improved their bowl odds by double digits. But Kansas and Washington, upset victims to UNLV and Washington State, both took a hit that put them on the borderline of a bowl game. The Jayhawks and Huskies both have 5.5 expected wins, right on the brink—but Kansas will go 8-4 if they play as expected game by game, while Washington will only by 4-8.
In terms of bowl game odds no one took a bigger hit than UCLA, down 23.6% to 22.2% at 1-1 after their 42-13 loss to Indiana—at home, even. Obviously, Florida State wasn't in a good position at 0-2 and going 0-3 made it -14% harder.
Projected Record Odds thru 9/17 LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 78 72. Western Kentucky CUSA 2-1 8-4 7.0- 5.0 0.5 0.0 76.7 +12.0 103 83. Buffalo MAC 2-1 6-6 6.5- 5.5 0.1 0.0 66.8 +12.6 74 89. West Virginia B12 1-2 3-9 4.2- 7.8 0.4 -2.0 27.7 -15.9 76 90. Virginia ACC 2-1 2-10 4.7- 7.3 0.2 -1.3 31.7 -12.5 70 96. UCLA B10 1-1 3-9 3.9- 8.1 0.3 -3.0 22.2 -23.6 90 98. Vanderbilt SEC 2-1 3-9 4.1- 7.9 <0.1 -0.2 16.7 -16.0 91 102. Florida St ACC 0-3 3-9 3.7- 8.3 <0.1 -0.4 16.4 -14.0 97 105. Hawai`i MWC 1-2 4-8 4.6- 7.4 <0.1 -0.2 32.6 -13.9 117 107. South Alabama SUNw 1-2 5-7 4.6- 7.4 <0.1 0.0 33.7 +1.8 109 108. Florida SEC 1-2 2-10 3.3- 8.7 0.0 -0.2 10.6 -7.4 104 109. Colorado St MWC 1-2 4-8 4.7- 7.3 0.0 -0.2 35.3 -11.7
Almost all the teams above took it on the chin last week, including Florida who now sits at 0.0% to make the Playoff and just 10.6% for a bowl bid. Mississippi State next week should offer a reprieve, but after that their easiest game might be the Seminoles! There's Kentucky too, but they nearly beat Georgia!
South Alabama absolutely rolled last week, beating Northwestern State 87-10. But that score run-up only added a scant 1.8% to their bowl odds, mostly because the win was considered a foregone conclusion.
Projected Record Odds thru 9/17 LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 107 112. Wyoming MWC 0-3 5-7 3.9- 8.1 0.0 -0.1 23.0 -12.5 102 114. New Mexico St CUSA 1-2 4-8 4.6- 7.4 0.0 -0.1 33.8 -17.0 113 115. Jacksonville St CUSA 0-3 5-7 4.1- 7.9 0.0 0.0 28.2 -12.2 92 117. Purdue B10 1-1 2-10 3.2- 8.8 <0.1 -1.0 12.1 -18.1 98 118. Mississippi St SEC 1-2 2-10 3.3- 8.7 0.0 -0.2 5.7 -18.4 114 119. Tulsa AAc 1-2 2-10 4.4- 7.6 0.0 -0.1 29.6 -11.7 111 121. Air Force MWC 1-2 4-8 4.3- 7.7 <0.1 0.0 28.4 -12.5 110 122. Middle Tennessee St CUSA 1-2 3-9 4.2- 7.8 0.0 -0.2 26.3 -16.1 118 123. Rice AAc 1-2 2-10 4.0- 8.0 <0.1 0.0 22.8 -16.0 115 124. Ball St MAC 1-1 2-10 4.0- 8.0 0.0 -0.1 23.5 -14.4 131 133. Massachusetts Ind 0-3 2-10 2.7- 9.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 -3.8 133 134. Kent St MAC 0-3 0-12 1.9-10.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 -3.2
The teams above aren't in great shape, let's face it. Most have 0.0% Playoff Odds, as they already have 2 or 3 losses for the most part, but no team here has much better than 1 in 3 bowl odds, either. Purdue's hopes were crushed by Notre Dame, and Mississippi State now has no hope of navigating their SEC schedule to the Playoff. Their bowl odds rest at around 5%, too. Kent State's odds fell from 5.6% to 2.4% after the Tennessee debacle, 2nd worst only to UMass, who is now 0-3 and must go 6-3 to be bowl eligible. The Minutemen have just a 1.1% chance of getting to 6 wins. They play three SEC teams as well as Northern Illinois and Liberty. But unlike Kent State, UMass will be favored in two games, as they play Central Connecticut State and Wagner.
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