You know the big games: Texas beating Michigan, Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois. Yes, those were the big ones but the most important games turned out to be Oklahoma's near-loss and Tennessee's dominant win. Let's take a look.
Ohio State beat Western Michigan 56-0 and took over the projected #1 finish in the projected Committee top 25, gaining a full 10% in Playoff Odds. Really? Does that win carry so much weight? Well, let's look at how the Buckeyes' top contenders in the Big Ten did last week. Oregon nearly lost (37-34) at home to Boise State, Penn State struggled mightily (34-27) with Bowling Green, and of course Michigan lost badly (31-12) at home to Texas. That is where most of Ohio State's +10.0% comes from.
Naturally Texas gains a lot (+14.3%) from beating the Wolverines, pulling them ahead of Georgia for the projected #2 spot. Why are the Longhorns ahead of the Bulldogs? No, they don't rank better in projected power rating, but their remaining schedule is far, far easier than Georgia's. Texas has the home field in their matchup later this year, and looking at the rest of the top ten the Longhorns avoid #5 Alabama, #6 Ole Miss, and #8 Tennessee, all of whom play Georgia.
Projected Final Committee Top 25 (post week 2)
Projected Record Odds (as of 9/08/2024) LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 4 1. Ohio State *B10 2-0 11-1 10.3- 1.7 72.5 +10.0 99.6 +0.5 6 2. Texas *SEC 2-0 11-1 10.4- 1.6 72.0 +14.3 99.8 +1.8 3 3. Georgia SEC 2-0 11-1 9.9- 2.1 69.7 +3.5 99.4 +0.5 1 4. Oregon B10 2-0 12-0 10.1- 1.9 68.5 -4.3 99.0 0.0 5 5. Alabama SEC 2-0 12-0 9.8- 2.2 64.5 +3.8 98.3 +0.8 8 6. Mississippi SEC 2-0 11-1 9.8- 2.2 54.6 +2.0 98.0 +0.8 7 7. Penn State B10 2-0 11-1 9.7- 2.3 52.9 -4.4 97.9 -0.2 18 8. Tennessee SEC 2-0 9-3 9.3- 2.7 39.3 +19.5 98.6 +11.1 2 9. Notre Dame Ind 1-1 11-1 9.2- 2.8 39.8 -29.7 97.2 -2.2 11 10. Kansas St *B12 2-0 11-1 9.0- 3.0 35.1 +5.7 92.9 +4.5
Speaking of Tennessee, their 51-10 thrashing of AP Top 25 NC State propelled them into the top 10, both in the AP and in our final Committee standings projection where they gain nearly 20% in Playoff odds. They come in just ahead of Notre Dame, who lost at home to Northern Illinois but has a friendly schedule this year and remains one of the favorites to make the cut. They do lose nearly 30% of that, falling from around 70% to just 40% chance.
Kansas State barely beat Tulane (34-27), but Tulane was damn good last year and K-State was on the road, unlike the other teams that nearly lost last week. Put in perspective, the Wildcats beat Tulane on the road by the same score Penn State beat Bowling Green at home.
Southern Cal may be one of the better Big Ten teams if trends continue (they blanked Utah State 48-0) but our algorithm needs a bit more convincing before the Trojans look Playoff-worthy.
Miami did enough in a gimme week against FAMU to solidify their leading ACC role, while Clemson bounced back with a strong showing against Appalachian State (66-20). Louisville is the other ACC contender and they held their position in week 2.
The SEC teams outside the top 10 will have a tough time making headway. Missouri blanked Buffalo 38-0 but dropped a few spots due to other teams surging. Oklahoma beat Houston just 16-12 and that dropped the Sooners like a rock, down 11.6% and from 5th place in the SEC to a distant 7th. Houston lost to UNLV 27-7 in week 1 at home, to put in perspective how poor Oklahoma played Saturday. Texas A&M bounced back beating McNeese State 52-10 but again, their home loss to the Irish looks pretty bad now so they still fell to #25.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 14 11. Southern Cal B10 2-0 9-3 8.5- 3.5 34.9 +9.5 87.9 +8.0 12 12. Miami FL *ACC 2-0 11-1 9.0- 3.0 30.2 +6.4 93.5 +3.1 10 13. Missouri SEC 2-0 10-2 8.6- 3.4 28.3 +3.4 91.7 +1.1 13 14. Utah B12 2-0 11-1 8.7- 3.3 29.5 +3.4 90.1 +3.8 16 15. Iowa St B12 2-0 11-1 8.9- 3.1 27.8 +3.7 92.7 +5.6 19 16. Boise St *MWC 1-1 11-1 9.1- 2.9 27.5 +7.4 96.2 +3.1 26 17. Clemson ACC 1-1 11-1 8.4- 3.6 22.0 +8.3 89.9 +10.8 17 18. Oklahoma St B12 2-0 10-2 8.5- 3.5 23.6 -1.3 88.7 +3.0 20 19. Louisville ACC 2-0 10-2 8.3- 3.7 24.2 +2.5 87.7 +3.3 9 20. Oklahoma SEC 2-0 8-4 7.5- 4.5 20.2 -11.6 81.2 -7.1 15 21. Michigan B10 1-1 9-3 7.3- 4.7 16.3 -6.6 80.2 -2.3 21 22. Liberty *CUSA 2-0 12-0 9.8- 2.2 16.5 -1.1 97.4 +1.2 41 23. Washington St P12 2-0 9-3 8.8- 3.2 13.6 +6.9 93.6 +15.1 24 24. Memphis *AAc 2-0 10-2 9.5- 2.5 16.9 -0.6 96.7 +4.7 22 25. Texas A&M SEC 1-1 10-2 7.7- 4.3 16.0 -0.7 83.4 0.0 23 26. Arizona B12 2-0 8-4 8.0- 4.0 15.8 -1.3 85.0 0.0 25 30. TCU B12 2-0 10-2 7.8- 4.2 14.2 -1.4 81.6 +1.6
Almost all of the relevant Big Twelve is in the range above. Aside from K-State who leads the conference by a hair, we have Utah (who beat Baylor but lost QB Cam Rising for the time being), Iowa State (who came back to beat Iowa by a point), and Oklahoma State (who went back and forth before beating Arkansas in overtime). Obviously no one stands out here. To make matters worse, two Big Twelve teams exited the top 25 projection: Arizona (beat Northern Arizona 22-10) and TCU (beating LIU 45-0 wasn't good enough I guess, or it was the hangover of beating Stanford by just 7 points the week before)
Boise State was a big winner despite losing. The Broncos Playoff Odds jumped 7.4% due to their near-win at Oregon. And if they'd won? They'd probably be in the top 10. They're a clear favorite to win the Mountain West and with it a Playoff berth. Though they only beat New Mexico State 30-24, Liberty is still a threat to go 12-0 in C-USA, and Memphis is looking solid in the American.
The surprise newcomer to the top 25? The Pac-12's Washington State. The Cougars beat Texas Tech 37-16 and have a pretty easy schedule. They'll have no conference title game so they probably have to win out or at least go 11-1 to have a good Playoff shot, but we give them almost 14% odds.
The group below is mostly concerned with getting to a bowl game, though California's win over Auburn put them in double digits for the Playoff, and Texas State's 49-10 mauling of UTSA gave the Sun Belt a fighting chance to have a rep. The big move was of course made by Northern Illinois after dispatching Notre Dame. The win puts them at 2-0 and around 90% chance to make a bowl game and made them the MAC favorite, passing even Bowling Green who jumped over 10% despite (or due to) losing a close one at Penn State.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 42 27. California ACC 2-0 10-2 8.3- 3.7 15.4 +6.3 86.4 +15.2 46 28. Texas St-San Marcos *SUNw 2-0 12-0 9.3- 2.7 13.5 +7.9 94.4 +13.3 68 33. Northern Illinois *MAC 2-0 9-3 8.4- 3.6 6.3 +5.1 89.6 +20.1 52 39. Nebraska B10 2-0 8-4 7.1- 4.9 7.6 +3.0 74.6 +10.9 66 41. South Carolina SEC 2-0 5-7 6.7- 5.3 5.5 +3.8 70.2 +25.3 64 48. Bowling Green MAC 1-1 10-2 7.5- 4.5 2.9 +1.2 81.2 +10.9 35 49. SMU ACC 2-1 9-3 6.7- 5.3 3.8 -6.5 68.2 -12.4 32 50. Auburn SEC 1-1 5-7 6.2- 5.8 3.0 -6.2 62.9 -12.3 34 51. North Carolina St ACC 1-1 7-5 6.5- 5.5 3.7 -7.4 66.0 -12.4 30 54. Texas Tech B12 1-1 7-5 6.4- 5.6 3.5 -7.8 65.3 -12.9 62 55. East Carolina AAc 2-0 11-1 7.9- 4.1 2.9 -0.4 84.0 +12.1 61 56. Duke ACC 2-0 5-7 7.0- 5.0 3.1 -0.3 72.2 +10.9 81 60. Brigham Young B12 2-0 4-8 6.2- 5.8 4.0 +1.9 58.9 +15.3
Is Nebraska back? The Colorado win would suggest so, or at least they're probably bowl-bound. And South Carolina's 31-6 win at Kentucky suggest the Gamecocks won't be an SEC pushover this year, while Auburn's loss to California puts their bowl hopes in a bit of doubt. Three ACC teams had noteworthy results: SMU tumbled after losing to BYU (who rose 15%), NC State took a big hit from Tennessee at home, and Duke got a solid win at Northwestern, who dropped (see below) under 1 in 3 bowl odds.
Below, Pitt's comeback (28-27, from down 27-6) vs. Cincinnati put them above the 50% mark and dropped the Bearcats beneath it. Maryland (-14.9%) and Michigan State (+15.7%) went opposite directions after the Spartans won by a field goal, but the Terps are still more likely to reach a bowl (just barely).
Kentucky's bowl odds were savaged (down 24%, from about 75% to just over 50%) by their big loss to South Carolina. Other big losers include Appalachian State (lost by 46 to Clemson) and Texas-San Antonio (lost by 39 to Texas State).
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 77 62. Pittsburgh ACC 2-0 5-7 6.3- 5.7 3.2 +1.5 61.0 +14.0 43 63. Maryland B10 1-1 6-6 5.8- 6.2 2.7 -3.8 54.6 -14.9 83 64. San Jose St MWC 2-0 7-5 7.0- 5.0 2.8 +1.3 72.2 +16.4 37 68. Kentucky SEC 1-1 6-6 5.6- 6.4 1.2 -6.7 50.5 -24.2 87 69. Army AAc 2-0 8-4 7.4- 4.6 1.0 +0.3 76.9 +19.5 96 71. Michigan St B10 2-0 4-8 5.7- 6.3 1.0 +0.6 49.7 +15.7 98 72. Arizona St B12 2-0 3-9 5.5- 6.5 2.1 +1.2 46.6 +14.0 55 77. Appalachian St SUNe 1-1 7-5 6.0- 6.0 1.3 -4.6 57.5 -13.0 49 80. Texas-San Antonio AAc 1-1 8-4 6.2- 5.8 0.2 -3.5 62.3 -16.8 94 82. Ohio U. MAC 1-1 8-4 6.6- 5.4 0.2 +0.1 68.1 +10.0 101 84. Georgia Southern SUNe 1-1 5-7 5.9- 6.1 0.4 +0.1 56.4 +12.4 70 85. Wake Forest ACC 1-1 4-8 5.1- 6.9 0.9 -1.5 41.0 -11.8 80 94. Northwestern B10 1-1 2-10 4.7- 7.3 0.3 -0.8 32.7 -11.0 74 95. Cincinnati B12 1-1 4-8 4.8- 7.2 0.4 -1.4 37.0 -14.1
Army started 2-0 by beating Florida Atlantic and the Knights now have over a 75% chance for a bowl, while the Owls (below) remain just above 50%. Arizona State (above) jumped to near-par by edging Mississippi State, who (below) dropped below 25% odds in the tough SEC. San Jose State's gain (+16.4%) is Air Force's loss (-21.4%), and so on.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 75 96. Florida Atlantic AAc 0-2 7-5 5.7- 6.3 <0.1 -0.4 54.4 -14.4 88 98. Mississippi St SEC 1-1 4-8 4.4- 7.6 0.2 -0.4 24.1 -12.7 124 100. Florida Int'l CUSA 1-1 5-7 5.8- 6.2 0.1 0.0 54.3 +22.9 92 106. Utah St MWC 1-1 5-7 5.0- 7.0 0.1 -0.8 40.9 -10.4 76 111. Air Force MWC 1-1 4-8 5.0- 7.0 0.1 -1.9 40.9 -21.4 102 117. South Alabama SUNw 0-2 5-7 4.5- 7.5 <0.1 -0.1 31.9 -17.4 131 122. Louisiana-Monroe SUNw 2-0 3-9 4.4- 7.6 <0.1 +0.1 26.8 +13.5 97 123. Central Michigan MAC 1-1 2-10 4.2- 7.8 0.0 -0.4 27.8 -26.4 99 124. Alabama-Birmingham AAc 1-1 5-7 4.4- 7.6 0.0 -0.4 28.9 -26.2 122 127. UTEP CUSA 0-2 3-9 3.5- 8.5 0.0 0.0 19.0 -15.3
Florida International blasted Central Michigan 52-16 and now looks like an on-money bowl team, while the Chippewas dropped from around 50% to closer to 25%. UAB fell nearly as much after losing 32-6 to ULM, who gained 13.5% but is still around a 1 in 4 chance. And if you think it couldn't get much worse for UTEP, think again. The Miners lost to FCS team Southern Utah at home, taking away a crucial win they really needed to have a decent shot at a bowl game. Now they need to go 6-4 and though we see 3 or 4 wins coming, it would have helped to only need 5 more at this point.
Comments