The first week (or week and a half) is over, and already some teams are in Playoff trouble. With the new 12-team field there's a lot more leeway—a single loss doesn't crash a team's odds like it did in the 4-team days—but it still puts your team in the back seats if they lose on opening week.
Almost all of the field stayed the same from last week, as there weren't too many real surprises or competitive games which is normal for the first few weekends. Oregon remained at the top of our list but just barely as the Ducks struggled to top FCS Idaho 24-14. It's unusual for a team to win and have their Playoff odds drop 1.6%—even their bowl odds dropped from 99.1% to 99.0%. The Ducks were ahead of the field at the pre-season but no more; they play Boise State next week so they've used their "poor game" pass already.
Notre Dame and Georgia both impressed, with the Irish jumping 14.6% and into the #2 position with their win at Texas A&M. That was one of their two big hurdles and without a conference championship game their path got a lot clearer; they're up a stunning 14.6% from last week. The Bulldogs crushed Clemson 34-3 but only rose 7.1% as their path in the SEC is still rocky by comparison—especially with the surge by Alabama who destroyed Western Kentucky 63-0 and jumped 14% and into the top 5. New member Texas looked good too, beating Colorado State 52-0. Georgia plays both of them, as well as #8 Mississippi, so it's no wonder their odds are conservative despite their performance this week.
Ohio State beat Akron 52-6 but that wasn't good enough to raise their Playoff odds, in fact they dipped 0.1%. Some of that was due to Penn State's 10.6% surge after a solid 34-12 win at West Virginia. Mississippi also saw their odds dip 0.1% after a 76-0 win over Furman. That's probably more due to Georgia's convincing win (and potential SEC title opponent Alabama) then their own play. Overall, the top 8 teams are well ahead of the rest, all over 50% for making the Playoff.
Projected Record Odds (9/03/2024) LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 1 1. Oregon *B10 1-0 12-0 10.4- 1.6 72.8 -1.6 99.0 -0.1 4 2. Notre Dame Ind 1-0 12-0 10.6- 1.4 69.5 +14.6 99.4 +2.2 3 3. Georgia *SEC 1-0 12-0 9.9- 2.1 66.2 +7.1 98.9 +2.3 2 4. Ohio State B10 1-0 11-1 10.0- 2.0 62.5 -0.1 99.1 +0.2 8 5. Alabama SEC 1-0 11-1 9.7- 2.3 60.7 +14.0 97.5 +5.3 5 6. Texas SEC 1-0 11-1 9.7- 2.3 57.7 +4.6 98.0 +2.4 7 7. Penn State B10 1-0 11-1 9.9- 2.1 57.3 +10.6 98.1 +3.7 6 8. Mississippi SEC 1-0 11-1 9.7- 2.3 52.6 -0.1 97.2 +1.3 9 9. Oklahoma SEC 1-0 9-3 8.3- 3.7 31.8 -2.3 88.3 +1.3 11 10. Missouri SEC 1-0 9-3 8.5- 3.5 24.9 +0.6 90.6 +0.6 12 11. Kansas St *B12 1-0 11-1 8.7- 3.3 29.4 +1.9 88.4 +1.7 27 12. Miami FL *ACC 1-0 11-1 8.7- 3.3 23.8 +8.8 90.4 +13.6
Oklahoma is just inside the Playoff group. The Sooners' odds fell 2.3% even though they beat Temple 51-3, almost exactly the result expected. Again, blame being in the SEC where four teams ahead of them exceeded expectations over the weekend, and Missouri is right behind.
Miami was the big winner this week, moving into the projected field with an impressive 41-17 win at Florida, that, coupled with Clemson's debacle in Atlanta puts the Hurricanes in the ACC driver's seat. Kansas State remained the Big Twelve favorite, with Utah close behind. Iowa State didn't look great against North Dakota, winning just 21-3, while Oklahoma State's 44-20 win over FCS champ South Dakota State was much better. Meanwhile new Big Twelve member Arizona scored 61 against New Mexico but allowed 39, dinging their Playoff odds 5.2%, pretty harsh for a win.
Projected Record Odds (9/03/2024) LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 15 13. Utah B12 1-0 11-1 8.5- 3.5 26.1 +2.8 86.3 +2.9 29 14. Southern Cal B10 1-0 9-3 7.8- 4.2 25.4 +8.9 79.9 +11.7 16 15. Michigan B10 1-0 9-3 7.8- 4.2 22.9 +1.6 82.5 +4.8 13 16. Iowa St B12 1-0 11-1 8.5- 3.5 24.1 -2.0 87.1 +2.1 21 17. Oklahoma St B12 1-0 10-2 8.4- 3.6 24.9 +2.9 85.7 +6.4 25 18. Tennessee SEC 1-0 9-3 8.1- 3.9 19.8 +4.1 87.5 +5.7 19 19. Boise St *MWC 1-0 11-1 8.8- 3.2 20.1 +1.3 93.1 +2.9 23 20. Louisville ACC 1-0 9-3 8.1- 3.9 21.7 +2.2 84.4 +2.3 20 21. Liberty *CUSA 1-0 12-0 9.7- 2.3 17.6 +0.1 96.2 +2.0 10 22. Texas A&M SEC 0-1 10-2 7.8- 4.2 16.7 -13.4 83.4 -2.3 14 23. Arizona B12 1-0 9-3 8.1- 3.9 17.1 -5.2 85.0 -3.0 22 24. Memphis *AAc 1-0 10-2 9.0- 3.0 17.5 -1.7 92.0 +1.0
The big winner above was Southern Cal, of course; getting LSU out of the way and in the W column is a big help. Boise State wasn't in the Playoff in our pre-season projection, but sneaked in last week and remained this week. The Broncos play Oregon next weekend and a win would make them a huge Playoff favorite. Liberty and Memphis are in the hunt for the fifth auto-bid conference champ if Boise falters.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 26 25. TCU B12 1-0 10-2 7.8- 4.2 15.6 -1.8 80.0 +4.0 17 26. Clemson ACC 0-1 10-2 7.6- 4.4 13.7 -6.9 79.1 -3.1 38 27. North Carolina ACC 1-0 11-1 8.2- 3.8 11.9 +3.1 85.0 +10.1 33 28. Kansas B12 1-0 10-2 7.6- 4.4 14.1 +2.2 77.4 +1.4 18 29. LSU SEC 0-1 7-5 6.8- 5.2 10.8 -12.2 70.9 -5.5 ... 42 38. James Madison *SUNe 1-0 10-2 8.5- 3.5 8.7 +2.2 88.4 +7.4 24 39. Virginia Tech ACC 0-1 10-2 7.2- 4.8 9.2 -10.8 74.6 -9.1 64 40. Coastal Carolina SUNe 1-0 11-1 8.1- 3.9 8.2 +4.3 83.2 +15.4 80 48. UNLV MWC 1-0 8-4 7.3- 4.7 6.3 +3.8 73.9 +15.3 84 56. Boston College ACC 1-0 6-6 6.6- 5.4 3.8 +2.0 65.3 +20.6 46 69. Western Kentucky CUSA 0-1 9-3 6.7- 5.3 0.8 -3.7 69.0 -9.8 40 79. Florida St ACC 0-2 6-6 4.7- 7.3 1.0 -6.8 36.2 -22.6
Note how Clemson fell from grace with a bigger-than-expected loss margin, while North Carolina's 19-17 win at Minnesota gave them a pretty big boost. Turns out that was one of the toughest games on the Tar Heel schedule this year as they don't play Miami or Clemson, and Florida State (now #79 at 0-2) is a very reduced threat. Virginia Tech's Playoff odds also dropped double digits with their upset loss to Vanderbilt, while Boston College soared with their solid win over FSU. The Eagles' Playoff Odds aren't much, but their bowl odds jumped from 45% to 65% from one win.
Coastal Carolina and UNLV both gained 15% in bowl odds from decent wins, with the Chanticleers beating Jacksonville State 55-27 and the Rebels drubbing Houston 27-7.
Projected Record Odds LW Rnk Team Conf Curr Chalk Cume Playoff% %chg Bowl% %chg 110 82. North Texas AAc 1-0 5-7 6.1- 5.9 0.8 +0.3 58.0 +17.7 117 85. Sam Houston St CUSA 1-0 7-5 6.4- 5.6 0.7 +0.6 61.8 +22.7 120 95. Vanderbilt SEC 1-0 4-8 4.7- 7.3 0.3 +0.1 30.0 +11.7 123 98. Arizona St B12 1-0 1-11 4.5- 7.5 0.9 +0.7 32.6 +15.0 68 102. South Alabama SUNw 0-1 6-6 5.5- 6.5 0.2 -2.0 49.3 -18.2 66 104. Wyoming MWC 0-1 6-6 5.0- 7.0 0.5 -3.7 43.0 -22.7 81 106. Troy SUNw 0-1 3-9 5.3- 6.7 0.2 -1.5 46.5 -14.4 114 107. Eastern Michigan MAC 1-0 5-7 5.9- 6.1 0.1 0.0 55.0 +9.5 78 110. Florida SEC 0-1 2-10 3.8- 8.2 0.5 -3.4 22.0 -17.8 85 113. Jacksonville St CUSA 0-1 8-4 5.3- 6.7 <0.1 -0.7 47.6 -14.5 67 116. Rice AAc 0-1 4-8 5.1- 6.9 0.2 -3.0 42.4 -23.3 126 119. Nevada MWC 1-1 3-10 5.2- 7.8 0.2 +0.1 30.9 +10.2 118 126. Houston B12 0-1 1-11 2.4- 9.6 <0.1 -0.3 8.2 -13.1 127 134. Massachusetts Ind 0-1 2-10 3.2- 8.8 0.0 0.0 8.5 -12.1
More winners and losers from week 1, now at the bottom of the list where Playoff Odds are an afterthough so we focus on Bowl qualification. North Texas beat South Alabama 52-38, putting the Mean Green over 50% for a bowl game and the Jaguars just below the 50% mark at 49.3%.
Sam Houston won 34-14 at Rice, and they gained more than 20% for it, up to 61.8% while Rice fell 23.3%—and all the way from #67 to #116. The Owls were about a 2-touchdown favorite before the game in our system.
While Arizona struggled last week, Arizona State rolled against Wyoming, 48-7, brightening their forecast for the season. We had them last in the Big Twelve, and not favored to win a single game—talk about exceeding expectations! Meanwhile Wyoming crashed 22.7% and next faces the Idaho team that gave Oregon fits.
Speaking of last place in the Big Twelve, Houston's bad loss to UNLV puts them in that spot. The Cougars now have the lowest bowl odds of any team in the nation. They don't play ASU, who is also forecast to go 1-11 game by game, the difference being the Sun Devils have a lot of close games now and should end up with 4 or 5 wins, while Houston looks to have 2 or 3.
Nevada beat Troy, 28-26, but it wasn't enough for the Wolf Pack to pass the Trojans in bowl odds. UMass now looks like the least Playoff-worthy team in the country, and is almost the least bowl-likely, too at 8.5% following their loss to Eastern Michigan, who now looks like a bowl contender.
Finally, Florida is easily the best team in this region, starting #39 in our pre-season rankings. The loss to Miami hurt them but it's mainly their SEC schedule going forward that puts them at just 22% bowl odds. They play Samford next weekend but after that it's hard to find a win let alone five more. They don't play Vanderbilt. Florida State looks less daunting now, but that one's on the road. Mississippi State is a possibility, or UCF or Kentucky at home. Good luck, Gators, you're gonna need it.
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