So who will make the Playoff? If our projections are to come true, it looks like:
- There will be three Big Ten teams—and FIVE from the SEC
- Kansas State is the favorite in a very close 4-team race in the Big 12
- Clemson from the ACC and Liberty from CUSA fight for the 4th seed, with many other conferences having a shot at the last auto-bid
Proj Record Odds Rnk Team Conf Str Chalk Cume Playoff% Bowl% 1. Oregon *B10 1 12-0 10.5- 1.5 72.5 98.76 2. Ohio State B10 3 11-1 10.1- 1.9 *61.6 98.71 3. Georgia *SEC 2 12-0 9.6- 2.4 57.3 96.36 4. Notre Dame Ind 7 12-0 9.9- 2.1 *54.5 96.38 5. Texas SEC 4 11-1 9.4- 2.6 *50.4 94.72 6. Mississippi SEC 5 11-1 9.5- 2.5 *49.6 94.78 7. Penn State B10 8 11-1 9.3- 2.7 *44.3 93.03 8. Alabama SEC 6 10-2 8.9- 3.1 *43.2 90.95 9. Oklahoma SEC 9 10-2 8.3- 3.7 *32.8 86.12 10. Texas A&M SEC 10 10-2 8.3- 3.7 28.6 84.08 11. Missouri SEC 14 9-3 8.5- 3.5 23.8 89.22 12. Kansas St *B12 11 11-1 8.5- 3.5 27.6 85.78 13. Iowa St B12 12 11-1 8.3- 3.7 24.5 83.46 14. Arizona B12 15 9-3 8.4- 3.6 20.4 86.00 15. Utah B12 18 11-1 8.1- 3.9 23.0 82.10 16. Michigan B10 16 9-3 7.5- 4.5 21.2 77.17 17. Clemson *ACC 22 9-3 7.8- 4.2 20.3 80.25 18. Liberty *CUSA 52 12-0 9.5- 2.5 17.6 92.71
Oregon and Ohio State are the favorites in the Big Ten, more likely to finish on top than anyone from the SEC, whose candidates are held back by crushing schedules where the league has six teams in the top ten in projected Strength. Georgia is the favorite there, with Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Oklahoma edging out Texas A&M and Missouri for Playoff spots.
The Big 12 is tight with four teams—Kansas State, Iowa State, Arizona, and Utah all in the running. Once again this league has the curse of parity, with the top four contenders all projected at 8-4 cumulatively. If any of them can really go 11-1 then they'll be in the driver's seat.
Notre Dame doesn't have a conference championship game, so if they go 12-0 they're a lock. 10-2 looks more realistic but that still probably gets them a bid among the Big 10 and SEC teams. Particularly because no one knows how the Committee will deal with such a huge tranche of SEC teams; this bodes well for the Irish as well as perhaps a 2nd team from the Big Twelve.
Penn State looks more likely to get in than defending national champ Michigan, who lost too many players (along with their coach). The Lions have an easier schedule too, not having to play Oregon, while the Wolverines also face Texas in the pre-conference slate.
It appears to be a very close race for the 4th seed, but when push comes to shove the ACC champ will almost certainly get the spot over any other conference team, particularly Liberty whose schedule will be among the easiest. The Flames rank only as our #52 team in Strength but they shouldn't be challenged a lot this season. Let's look at the ACC race and the race for the final auto-bid:
Proj Record Odds Rnk Team Conf Str Chalk Cume Playoff% Bowl% 17. Clemson *ACC 22 9-3 7.8- 4.2 20.3 80.25 18. Liberty *CUSA 52 12-0 9.5- 2.5 17.6 92.71 19. Oklahoma St B12 17 10-2 7.9- 4.1 21.2 79.66 20. Boise St *MWC 34 11-1 8.7- 3.3 17.5 89.23 21. LSU SEC 13 8-4 7.4- 4.6 22.2 75.29 22. Louisville ACC 20 9-3 8.0- 4.0 19.2 81.55 23. Memphis *AAc 38 11-1 8.8- 3.2 18.9 89.59 24. SMU ACC 25 11-1 8.3- 3.7 18.5 84.14 25. Virginia Tech ACC 26 11-1 8.3- 3.7 18.8 82.46 26. Tennessee SEC 23 9-3 7.6- 4.4 14.5 79.31 27. Florida St ACC 28 9-3 7.2- 4.8 17.3 71.47 28. TCU B12 19 10-2 7.5- 4.5 17.2 75.14 29. Miami FL ACC 33 10-2 7.6- 4.4 15.3 76.23 30. Southern Cal B10 21 8-4 7.0- 5.0 16.4 68.00 31. Auburn SEC 24 6-6 7.1- 4.9 10.2 74.19 32. Kansas B12 31 8-4 7.5- 4.5 12.6 75.69 33. Central Florida B12 30 7-5 7.4- 4.6 11.5 74.17 34. Iowa B10 29 10-2 7.2- 4.8 11.8 72.18 35. North Carolina St ACC 41 8-4 7.5- 4.5 10.7 74.79
There are seven ACC teams here, including Florida State who ranks only 5th among ACC contenders! Their game-by-game projection is a pedestrian 9-3; playing Notre Dame, Florida, and Memphis as their non-conference schedule doesn't do them any favors. Meanwhile both SMU and Virginia Tech have at least the potential to go 11-1 and challenge for the ACC crown.
Speaking of Memphis, the Tigers are one of the main contenders for the 5th auto-bid in this region. If Liberty stumbles (or just fails to impress), Boise State is also waiting in the wings from the Mountain West.
Proj Record Odds Rnk Team Conf Str Chalk Cume Playoff% Bowl% 36. Kentucky SEC 27 8-4 6.9- 5.1 9.2 71.19 37. Texas Tech B12 32 8-4 7.3- 4.7 10.0 73.27 38. North Carolina ACC 46 9-3 7.5- 4.5 9.4 74.85 39. Texas-San Antonio AAc 63 10-2 7.8- 4.2 7.3 81.66 40. Tulane AAc 51 9-3 7.6- 4.4 9.5 77.79 41. James Madison *SUNe 72 10-2 8.0- 4.0 6.6 80.23 42. Washington St P12 55 7-5 7.3- 4.7 6.4 74.28 43. California ACC 44 8-4 6.8- 5.2 8.1 66.03 44. Oregon St P12 56 9-3 7.1- 4.9 5.1 72.49 45. Texas St-San Marcos SUNw 78 10-2 7.8- 4.2 5.5 77.08 46. Washington B10 37 6-6 6.2- 5.8 6.2 58.93 47. Fresno St MWC 67 10-2 7.3- 4.7 5.3 72.88 48. Western Kentucky CUSA 76 9-3 7.4- 4.6 3.9 76.16 49. Maryland B10 45 6-6 6.4- 5.6 5.2 62.16 50. Rutgers B10 48 7-5 6.7- 5.3 5.8 64.60 51. Indiana B10 49 8-4 6.8- 5.2 3.8 66.93 52. Wisconsin B10 35 6-6 6.1- 5.9 6.7 57.09 53. Syracuse ACC 58 7-5 6.7- 5.3 5.2 65.23 54. Arkansas SEC 42 4-8 5.9- 6.1 5.6 52.92 55. Louisiana-Lafayette SUNw 80 8-4 7.3- 4.7 5.0 72.65 56. Appalachian St SUNe 73 8-4 6.8- 5.2 5.5 66.49 57. West Virginia B12 36 6-6 5.8- 6.2 7.2 52.86 58. Duke ACC 54 4-8 6.3- 5.7 5.7 60.04 59. Nebraska B10 47 8-4 6.2- 5.8 4.5 59.14 60. UCLA B10 39 4-8 5.7- 6.3 5.6 52.17 61. South Carolina SEC 43 4-8 5.8- 6.2 4.5 52.23
The next section includes most of the rest of the Power conference teams, with Playoff Odds falling from around 10% to below 5%. The first Sun Belt teams show up, led by James Madison who is projected at 10-2 game by game with 8-4 being more likely.
Last year's Playoff runner-up Washington loses almost all their starting lineup and is ranked only #37 in Strength, which doesn't bode well in the new Big Ten where they might struggle to get to a bowl game. Another Big Ten team, Nebraska, too, looks much better than #59 if they can win the games they're supposed to—but of course that has been the opposite of what the Cornhuskers have done in the last few years. A whole lot of the new Big Ten is here, with Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, and Wisconsin looking to break out of the parity mire. And UCLA's intro to the league probably won't be as successful as rivals Oregon or USC.
Proj Record Odds Rnk Team Conf Str Chalk Cume Playoff% Bowl% 62. Coastal Carolina SUNe 83 10-2 6.9- 5.1 4.2 67.54 63. Toledo *MAC 92 9-3 7.3- 4.7 2.5 72.18 64. East Carolina AAc 86 9-3 7.1- 4.9 3.7 69.44 65. Wyoming MWC 77 9-3 6.6- 5.4 4.0 63.87 66. Bowling Green MAC 88 9-3 6.7- 5.3 1.5 68.65 67. South Alabama SUNw 87 8-4 6.7- 5.3 2.6 65.87 68. Wake Forest ACC 65 5-7 5.9- 6.1 3.5 53.52 69. Rice AAc 84 8-4 6.6- 5.4 3.0 64.75 70. Baylor B12 50 4-8 5.6- 6.4 3.9 49.96 71. Miami OH MAC 90 7-5 6.6- 5.4 1.6 65.05 72. Florida SEC 40 3-9 5.0- 7.0 4.9 40.42 73. Minnesota B10 53 4-8 5.6- 6.4 3.8 49.85 74. Air Force MWC 85 8-4 6.7- 5.3 2.3 64.73 75. Florida Atlantic AAc 98 8-4 6.9- 5.1 1.6 68.23 76. Northern Illinois MAC 95 8-4 6.7- 5.3 1.1 67.22 77. South Florida AAc 82 7-5 6.3- 5.7 2.5 60.38 78. Cincinnati B12 59 5-7 5.6- 6.4 2.7 50.73 79. UNLV MWC 81 6-6 6.2- 5.8 2.6 57.91 80. Troy SUNw 91 5-7 6.3- 5.7 2.0 60.21 81. Illinois B10 64 5-7 5.5- 6.5 1.7 48.51 82. Georgia Tech ACC 60 3-9 5.0- 7.0 2.3 39.73 83. Boston College ACC 69 5-7 5.2- 6.8 2.0 44.74 84. Brigham Young B12 57 4-8 5.0- 7.0 3.0 42.21 85. Jacksonville St CUSA 105 8-4 6.3- 5.7 0.9 61.36 86. Northwestern B10 66 4-8 5.2- 6.8 1.7 43.78 87. Army AAc 101 5-7 6.0- 6.0 1.0 56.50 88. Pittsburgh ACC 74 3-9 5.2- 6.8 1.6 44.20 89. Arkansas St SUNw 97 7-5 5.8- 6.2 0.9 54.04 90. Marshall SUNe 100 5-7 5.8- 6.2 0.8 53.50 91. San Jose St MWC 94 3-9 5.6- 6.4 1.7 49.70 92. Purdue B10 62 3-9 4.6- 7.4 1.6 35.08 93. Ohio U. MAC 111 6-6 6.1- 5.9 0.4 58.29 94. Utah St MWC 96 5-7 5.7- 6.3 0.8 52.05 95. Western Michigan MAC 110 6-6 6.0- 6.0 0.3 57.80 96. Virginia ACC 71 2-10 4.7- 7.3 1.7 37.74 97. Colorado St MWC 99 6-6 5.8- 6.2 0.6 53.21 98. Mississippi St SEC 68 4-8 4.7- 7.3 0.9 35.48 99. Navy AAc 102 3-9 5.5- 6.5 0.9 48.71
And finally we get to our first MAC team, Toledo; with the MAC's parity this year there don't look to be many standout teams that could have a really good record, and the Rockets' 7.3 win cumulative projection is the best of the lot.
Teams in this region have to start worrying about reaching a bowl game, though most are in good shape just because of the sheer amount of bowls that are scheduled.
Proj Record Odds Rnk Team Conf Str Chalk Cume Playoff% Bowl% 100. Colorado B12 61 4-8 4.5- 7.5 2.2 35.41 101. Michigan St B10 75 2-10 4.8- 7.2 1.0 36.94 102. Alabama-Birmingham AAc 106 6-6 5.6- 6.4 0.6 50.98 103. Stanford ACC 70 3-9 4.5- 7.5 1.6 33.53 104. Georgia St SUNe 104 5-7 5.4- 6.6 1.1 47.75 105. Georgia Southern SUNe 103 4-8 5.2- 6.8 0.7 45.51 106. Central Michigan MAC 116 7-5 5.8- 6.2 0.3 52.57 107. Tulsa AAc 113 3-9 5.3- 6.7 0.3 45.77 108. North Texas AAc 107 4-8 4.9- 7.1 0.6 40.85 109. New Mexico St CUSA 115 5-7 5.3- 6.7 0.2 46.65 110. Buffalo MAC 121 5-7 5.6- 6.4 0.1 50.93 111. San Diego St MWC 108 3-9 5.0- 7.0 0.5 41.99 112. Middle Tennessee St CUSA 114 5-7 5.2- 6.8 0.2 43.78 113. Hawai`i MWC 112 4-8 5.2- 6.8 0.2 43.42 114. Eastern Michigan MAC 126 5-7 5.2- 6.8 0.1 44.96 115. Connecticut Ind 118 4-8 4.9- 7.1 <0.1 40.22 116. Sam Houston St CUSA 117 5-7 4.8- 7.2 0.2 39.51 117. Old Dominion SUNe 109 2-10 4.3- 7.7 0.5 32.35 118. Houston B12 79 2-10 3.6- 8.4 0.5 22.45 119. UTEP CUSA 120 5-7 4.8- 7.2 0.1 39.06 120. Louisiana Tech CUSA 125 4-8 5.0- 7.0 <0.1 41.38 121. Vanderbilt SEC 89 3-9 3.7- 8.3 0.2 20.05 122. Ball St MAC 119 1-11 4.4- 7.6 0.1 35.11 123. Arizona St B12 93 0-12 3.2- 8.8 0.2 19.20 124. Southern Miss SUNw 124 2-10 4.0- 8.0 <0.1 28.24 125. Florida Int'l CUSA 129 2-10 4.1- 7.9 0.0 30.16 126. Massachusetts Ind 130 2-10 3.9- 8.1 0.0 21.87 127. UNC-Charlotte AAc 123 1-11 3.4- 8.6 <0.1 20.80 128. Nevada MWC 122 1-12 3.7- 9.3 <0.1 17.73 129. Kent St MAC 132 2-10 3.5- 8.5 0.0 21.14 130. New Mexico MWC 127 0-12 3.1- 8.9 0.0 18.16 131. Akron MAC 133 1-11 3.2- 8.8 0.0 17.91 132. Temple AAc 128 0-12 3.0- 9.0 <0.1 16.60 133. Louisiana-Monroe SUNw 131 1-11 2.9- 9.1 <0.1 15.22 134. Kennesaw St CUSA 134 0-12 2.9- 9.1 0.0 16.23
Most of this last group won't make a bowl game, but there will be some surprise teams for sure. It could be Colorado, who could go 4-8 again, maybe 5-7, and Deion Sanders will probably have to wait until next year for a real breakthrough.
For the most part, though, the teams here have very little chance of making the Playoff, with 7 teams showing less than 0.1% odds and six teams—FIU, UMass, Kent State, New Mexico, Akron, and newcomer Kennesaw State—not making it in any of 10,000 season simulations. All of those teams are in the bottom 8 in projected Strength so it's probably more notable that Temple and ULM had a miracle season in one of those simulated runs.
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