Determining who is national champ in college football used to be a crapshoot, with several teams staking a claim each year. By waves, it became less problematic, first with the logical step of actually choosing AFTER the bowl games instead of before (like they did until the mid-1960s, believe it or not).
Then came the "Bowl alliance" which settled the matter for almost every team outside the Big Ten and Pac-10, who still had the Rose Bowl. The BCS system brought the Big Ten and Pac-10/12 into the fold with rankings to make sure the #1 and #2 team collided at the end, including the Big Ten and Pac-10/12. There was still the pesky problem of a third undefeated team, or three teams fitting into two slots, so the Playoff was created, and everything was fixed!
Not so fast. The very first year was plagued with controversy when TCU dropped from #3 to #6 despite a 55-3 win. And now there's Florida State, who finished 13-0 but was left out due to their quarterback's injury that made the Committee think Alabama was the better choice.
Normally the Playoff winner is the obvious choice for national champ. But Florida State can still stake a real claim to #1, depending on how the Playoff pans out. There are a variety of teams that can logically claim a higher spot than most of the Playoff teams, too. Here are some scenarios:
Who can claim to be national champ?
- Michigan, at 15-0, would be hard to deny
- Washington, also 15-0, would be a pretty easy choice
- Alabama at 14-1, especially if they beat Texas to win it all
- Texas at 14-1, especially if they beat both Washington and Michigan
- Florida State at 14-0. If they beat Georgia soundly and Alabama wins the Playoff, the Seminoles would have a solid claim to being undefeated national champs. If Texas wins the Playoff they'd still have a decent claim. It would be a harder sell if Michigan or Washington wins the Playoff, but if they demolish Georgia they could make the case.
- Liberty, at 14-0. This is a tough sell, but if they destroy Oregon and Washington wins the Playoff, does a 35 point win over the Ducks beat two 3-point wins? Hard sell with the rest of their schedule, and the fact that the bowl games don't mean as much after so many players opt out.
Who could logically be ranked #2?
- Michigan, Washington, Alabama, Texas, Florida State - all could finish #2. Michigan and Washington could lose in the first round and still be #2, while Texas and Alabama would have to make the final game, and it would help if they face each other. FSU if they go 14-0 is probably the favorite to get the #2 spot depending on how the Playoff goes.
- Ohio State at 13-1: If Michigan goes 15-0, then Ohio State's only loss is a narrow road game to the Wolverines
- Georgia at 13-1: if Alabama wins it all handily then Georgia can claim to be #2
- Oregon at 12-2: If Washington wins the Playoff, a 2-loss Oregon—with both narrow losses to Washington—should be considered for the #2 spot
- Liberty at 14-0: If #1 is a stretch, what about #2? Their best path is Washington going 15-0, a blowout win over Oregon, and Georgia barely edging FSU, with Ohio State losing too. Still hard to defend.
What about #3? Two long-shots to be ranked that high can make the claim, and they play each other, too:
- All the aforementioned teams could end up #3, with the following added more in terms of logic:
- Penn State: if they beat Mississippi, Ohio State beats Missouri, and Michigan wins the Playoff at 15-0, then the Lions only losses are to (potential) #2 Ohio State and #1 Michigan
- Mississippi: same as above, if the Rebels beat Penn State, Alabama wins the Playoff handily, and Georgia crushes FSU, could it be #1 Alabama, #2 Georgia, #3 Mississippi?
And LSU, who lost only to Alabama, FSU, and Ole Miss, can claim by logic to be the #5 teams, continuing the best-case scenario for the SEC
- Alabama wins the Playoff, destroying Michigan and Texas (after Texas destroys Washington); Georgia edges FSU; Mississippi crushes Penn State; Missouri crushes Ohio State. Then the teams could be ordered: #1 Alabama, #2 Georgia, #3 Florida State, #4 Mississippi, #5 LSU
- Missouri (lost only to LSU and Georgia) could lay claim to #6, though Liberty might have to beat Oregon, with 1-loss Michigan and Washington it's straining credulity here.
Anyway, it will be an interesting year to rank the teams when it's all over. The first key game in all of this happens tonight when Ohio State faces Missouri.
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