Texas wins 49-21, Playoff odds dip?

Texas walloped Oklahoma State 49-21, a 35-point win that wasn't enough to clear the bar for our algorithm to pass Florida State if the Seminoles win by more than 4 points.

That may seem arbitrary and it kind of is, and other factors change how our model reacts too. For one, the expected Committee ranking becomes more and more important, and that helps Florida State a bit and hurts Texas.

2023 Playoff Odds 3:30pm 12/02: after Pac-12, Big Twelve championships

 Ranking                              Curr | Playoff    | CFP   Chalk
 Prv Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec |%Odds  %Chg | Curr  Proj
  1   1. Washington             P12    13-0  98.4   0.0     3     3  
  2   2. Michigan               B10e   12-0  96.4  +0.7     2     2  
  3   3. Georgia                SECe   12-0  71.6  +0.6     1     1  
  4   4. Texas                  B12    11-1  56.7  -7.5     7     5  
  5   5. Florida St             ACC    12-0  43.7  +5.7     4     4  
  6   6. Alabama                SECw   11-1  24.7  +5.9     8     8  
  7   7. Ohio State             B10e   11-1   8.4  -5.4     6     6  
  8   8. Oregon                 P12    11-2   0.0   0.0     5     7  

Michigan and Georgia stayed about the same, as neither was threatened by Texas. The Longhorns taking a 2nd loss would have seen a bigger improvement since a 1-loss Texas hurts the Wolverines and Bulldogs chances at 12-1. So this rise is mostly from slight formula changes as the Committee projection itself grows more important than other performance factors (also since it's a Monte Carlo simulation, this could be a more or less random result).

Texas should have gained and FSU lost odds, you would think, but the opposite happened. As we covered before, the amount Florida State wins by affects the result, but the balance of factors changes slightly with more information. As it is, Florida State should get in—in our simulation—if they win by a touchdown or more. In real life, any win should be enough but the big Texas win might make the Committee consider FSU's QB situation and whether they're one of the four best teams if they win narrowly.

Alabama is a theoretical threat to both Texas and Florida State, and their odds get a boost, too. But that's mainly taken from Ohio State's diminishing odds. With Texas at 12-1, that's another team guaranteed to be above the Buckeyes. There's no path for them to pass Texas anymore, and with Washington ahead of them, they'd have to pass a 12-1 Michigan (unlikely) or stay ahead of a 12-1 Alabama (also unlikely). Their odds here essentially are for the many simulation runs where they finish #5, which gets credit for being close due to Committee uncertaintly. But when push comes to shove the Buckeyes are almost certainly out of luck, and a 12-1 Alabama captures most of their lost odds. But they still don't get in with a win right now on most trials.