Playoff algorithm? Who knows, it's all up to the humans now

Florida State and Michigan won, but after the Wolverines and Huskies it's a crapshoot due to unpredictable human beings.

2023 Playoff Odds 12pm; after all games played but before AP poll

 Ranking                                   | Playoff    | CFP   
 Prv Rnk Team                   Conf   Rec |%Odds  %Chg | LW  
  2   1. Michigan               B10e   13-0  99.9  +2.5    2   
  1   2. Washington             P12    13-0  98.7  +0.3    3   
  5   3. Florida St             ACC    13-0  78.0  +5.7    4   
  4   4. Texas                  B12    12-1  48.7 -15.8    7   
  6   5. Alabama                SECw   12-1  39.3 -14.4    8   
  3   6. Georgia                SECe   12-1  28.0 +15.3    1   
  7   7. Ohio State             B10e   11-1   7.4  +6.4    6   
  8   8. Oregon                 P12    11-2   0.0   0.0    5   

Well here we are, our formula reduced to logic and precedent rather than a combination of odds and outcomes. Logic dictates that Texas is ahead of Alabama who is ahead of Georgia. Will that logic hold with the humans in the Committee? If some of the talking heads are correct, then it might not. Precedent states that a 13-0 power conference champ is guaranteed a spot. Will that precedent hold? Again, the talking heads are saying, maybe not.

Will Florida State make it? Will Texas make it? Or will the idea that the SEC is the best conference—not true this year, btw—mean that both Alabama and Georgia make it? Our projection can't deal with this kind of sentiment, and simply projects the three 13-0 teams to be at the top, joined by the team that beat the team that beat the team. Texas isn't that close to jumping FSU, and Alabama isn't that close to jumping Texas. In fact it's surprising how close Georgia is to being ahead of Alabama. And Ohio State still gets consideration for being 11-1, maybe being the best team in the country, and only losing on the road to the #1 team. That's as good as Georgia's résumé. 

But it's not about résumé at this point. This year is looking a lot like 2014, when there were six teams to fill four slots. That year an undefeated Florida State made it in at 13-0, instead TCU was sacrificed to open a spot for Ohio State. Nobody had a 59-0 win this year, but people are acting like Alabama's 24-21 win over Georgia is the same thing. 

Florida State's standing doesn't capture the fact that humans will look at: a team without their star quarterback. They very well might decide the Seminoles are not "one of the four best teams" and also decide the SEC champ can't be left out. Having decided that, they better put Texas in. Including the team that beat Alabama instead of the team that lost to Alabama would at least be a nod toward a semblance of fairness.

I'll revise these projections after the AP poll comes out, as the sportswriters are on the same page as the Committee and what they decide is probably quite close to what the Committee will decide.