Washington beat Oregon for a 2nd time and their odds predictably took a big jump, making them currently the most likely team to make the Playoff.
Seems like a no-brainer obviously. The Huskies don't have 100% odds only because they normally finish 3rd in the simulation and there's still some uncertainty built in for any team that doesn't finish at the top right now.
Michigan's odds are almost as high as Washington's even though they have yet to play Iowa. Their number barely budged from the Pac-12 game result as they are still ahead of the Huskies if they win, which is about a 95% chance according to our numbers.
2023 Playoff Odds 11:00am 12/02: post-Pac-12 Championship game only
Ranking Curr | Playoff | CFP Chalk Prv Rnk Team Conf Rec |%Odds %Chg | Curr Proj 6 1. Washington P12 13-0 98.4 +64.1 3 3 1 2. Michigan B10e 12-0 95.7 -0.1 2 2 2 3. Georgia SECe 12-0 71.0 -11.1 1 1 5 4. Texas B12 11-1 64.2 +12.5 7 5 4 5. Florida St ACC 12-0 38.0 -16.3 4 4 8 6. Alabama SECw 11-1 18.9 +11.2 8 8 7 7. Ohio State B10e 11-1 13.8 +4.7 6 6 3 8. Oregon P12 11-2 0.0 -65.1 5 7
Georgia took a small hit from the result, as they might finish below a 13-0 Washington but were always ahead of a 12-1 Oregon if they beat Alabama. In the big scheme it's pretty inconsequential because they're guaranteed a spot at 13-0 anyway, and the 12-1 result depends on what other teams (and the Committee) do.
Alabama's odds improved as Oregon's loss puts them clearly past the Ducks, who decline to 0.0% with their 2nd loss. It also puts their odds higher than Ohio State's odds for the first time. The Buckeyes clear Oregon too but can't do anything to improve their position, and therefore are dependent on many teams losing. Alabama on the other hand either helps or hurts their cause a lot. Oregon's loss puts them more within striking distance if they beat Georgia. But getting past Texas is still a problem.
Speaking of the Longhorns, the biggest thing that happened is that Texas's odds jumped quite a bit while Florida State's declined. For FSU, it added a team that always finishes ahead of them; in scenarios where Oregon beat Washington the Seminoles often finished ahead of both, but they now finish behind Washington in every sim. And since Texas beats Oklahoma State more often than FSU beats Louisville, the Longhorns often take the 4th (or better spot).
The oddest thing that happens in our sim is that Texas at 12-1 often finishes ahead of 13-0 FSU. That shouldn't happen in our sim, and it shouldn't happen in real life, but there's concern that the Committee might downgrade FSU if they play poorly in a win over Louisville since their starting QB is out for the season. I swear our algorithm is not an AI, and doesn't know anything about the QB position but FSU's lower Strength rating dings the Seminoles sometimes. When FSU only wins by a small margin, 12-1 Texas beats them out. I ran some scenarios and this is what happens:
FSU wins by: Texas must win by:
1 1
2 1
3 1
4 14
5 44
6-15 44
16 55
17 n/a
Now, these numbers don't have any real-life meaning; they're just edge cases of an algorithm. But they are consistent with human nature in some ways. Remember how Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0 in 2014, and suddenly they were in the Playoff? Margin of victory matters.
The numbers here basically say that if FSU wins by a field goal or less, then Texas just has to beat Oklahoma State and they get in at 12-1 ahead of 13-0 Florida State. That seems a bit odd, as Texas winning by a small amount wouldn't make them look very good, either.
A big change happens at an FSU win by 4 points; then, Texas has to win by two touchdowns. I'd say this is true for the 1-3 point FSU win, too.
At 5 points, the FSU win becomes much harder to overcome, and now Texas has to win by 44 points. If FSU wins convincingly, by 16 points, Texas needs a 55-0 win to convince the Committee to go with the Longhorns. And if FSU wins by 17, Texas can't reasonably get the nod.
In our "chalk" projection, FSU gets in because the Seminoles win by around 9 points, which requires a huge Texas blowout and we have the Longhorns winning by about 18 points. So either Texas needs a bigger win, or FSU has to win by 4 points or fewer.
In real life, we assume that a 13-0 FSU gets in every time. And if they don't, it might be a 12-1 Alabama instead of 12-1 Texas, but those cases are very rare in our sim. We can't really simulate the minds of the Committee members; that's why every result has uncertainty build into it, and give the results in what the algorithm determines the odds to be. In FSU's case, their odds of winning stayed the same, but their odds of making the Playoff fell, and it might just happen to coincidentally reflect uncertainty in the minds of the Committee members. We'll see.
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