Here's what the Strength power rating says about this weekend's final games:
Friday Night
C-USA (7pm Eastern) at Liberty (-10 1/2; 57.5)
New Mexico St. 21
Liberty 34
Pac-12 (8pm) Las Vegas, NV (Oregon -9 1/2; 65.5)
Oregon 37
Washington 26
Friday's games are both fun, featuring two teams trying to finish a perfect 13-0: Washington and Liberty. Washington is shooting for the Playoff while Liberty is gunning for a New Year's Six bowl berth. But Washington is a heavy underdog and we pick Oregon to win the rematch handily, even possibly in a revenge-fueled blowout. Washington will need its close-game magic to win this one. We take Liberty to beat the spread against an amazing 10-3 New Mexico State team (2-10 two years ago), but our power rating routinely exceeds the spread by a few points so these results are both pretty standard.
Saturday
Big Twelve (12noon) in Austin (Texas -15; 54.5)
Oklahoma St. 17
Texas 37
MAC (12noon) at Toledo (-8; 43.5)
Miami OH 19
Toledo 27
One game is important, the other isn't, so most people won't watch the upstart Miami Redhawks (10-2) take on the 11-1 Toledo Rockets, the latter another team gunning for a New Year's Six berth. There we have Toledo winning and matching the spread, but their chance of being the top Group of Five team is minuscule due to Liberty and the ACC title game matchup.
The Texas game is a big deal and becomes a bigger deal if any of the undefeated teams is upset. And really a big deal if Alabama beats Georgia. We give Texas partial home field for playing in state but even without it we'd have them beating the spread (which keeps increasing, up from 12 points to 15). Texas has been pretty consistent, though they keep letting teams back into it after a fast start lately. Oklahoma State is all over the place and if the bad version shows up, 20 points is the minimum loss. If the good Pokes show up, this one will go down to the wire.
Mountain West (3pm) at UNLV (+2; 58.5)
Boise State 31
UNLV 32
SEC (4pm) in Atlanta (Georgia -5; 54.5)
Alabama 24
Georgia 28
The mid-afternoon slate is dominated by Alabama vs. Georgia. The Bulldogs are a 5 point favorite but we have them only by 4 even after giving partial home field for playing in Atlanta. This should be a really close game not because these are the best teams but because both teams are relatively weak this year. Whoever exploits the other team's shortcomings will win. As to what happens if Alabama wins, we have no idea but logic dictates that neither team gets in unless there are other upsets. Whether that logic holds is another matter.
The other game features one of our two upset picks: We have UNLV at home edging Boise State, and here the location makes all the difference in our pick. You have an hour to watch this one to see which way it's going before switching to the really important game.
American Athletic (4pm) at Tulane (-3; 47.5)
SMU 28
Tulane 18
Sun Belt (4pm) at Troy (-5 1/2; 52.5)
Appalachian St 22
Troy 29
The other two games on at the same time as Georgia-Alabama feature our other upset pick, and this one our power rating is pretty emphatic about: we've been picking SMU to win the AAC for half the season now, and still have them winning by 10. The oddsmakers vehemently disagree, making Tulane a 3 point favorite at home. Tulane just hasn't looked very good lately, surviving very close calls (3 points or less) vs. 2-10 East Carolina and 4-8 Tulsa, while SMU beat those teams by 21, and 59. Tulane's only loss was at Ole Miss, while SMU fell at Oklahoma and TCU—all the losses by both teams were by 17 points. The problem for SMU—and the likely reason Tulane is favored, in addition to home field—is that the Mustangs will be without starting QB Preston Stone for the game and his backups have played very little.
Either way, the winner of this game should be the Group of Five pick for the New Year's Six bowl game. If Tulane wins that's a near-certainty; if SMU wins the Mustangs might not get the nod over Liberty since they aren't ranked by the Committee yet, so we don't know where they stand. But it makes sense that they would replace the Green Wave since the Committee likes the AAC and SMU's resume is solid. In the Sun Belt title game we have Troy at home winning as expected, exceeding the spread slightly as our power rating tends to do. The Trojans could make the Committee top 25 with a win but their odds to be the GoF rep are almost zero due to competition from Liberty, Toledo, and the AAC teams.
Big Ten (8pm) in Indianapolis, IN (Michigan -22; 34.5)
Michigan 27
Iowa 3
ACC (8pm) in Charlotte, NC (FSU -1 1/2; 47.5)
Louisville 23
Florida St 31
The last two games, both very important and both with big favorites—at least by our power rating. The spread on the FSU game is very slim, and undoubtedly due to FSU's QB being hurt. Our power rating reflects roughly what the spread would be with Jordan Travis healthy, so he's worth around 6 points to the oddsmakers. But there are rumors about Tate Rodemaker being hurt too, or having suffered a concussion against Florida. And there's the idea that the Committee might pass over a 13-0 FSU if they have a weak win against Louisville, in favor of Alabama if the Tide upset Georgia. And of course if the Seminoles lose, they're out, but Louisville is pretty lousy most of the time, let's face it.
As for Iowa vs. Michigan, we saw the blueprint when Iowa travelled to Penn State and lost 31-0. A 27-3 outcome would be about the same on a neutral field. Michigan's defense is about equal to Penn State's, maybe better, and Iowa doesn't throw anything unexpected that might shake things up. The only question is how much Iowa's defense—which is also as good as Penn State's or Michigan's, roughly—might hold the Wolverines out of the end zone and keep things one late play away from an upset. Odds are the Wolverines grind away and score here and there and become the 2nd team to tally more than 16 against the Hawkeyes.
The only other question is, what are Michigan's chances if they lose? They should remain ahead of Ohio State so they'll be in good shape if either Texas or FSU loses. What hurts a 12-1 Michigan is an Alabama win (which could put two SEC teams in) and an Oregon win (Washington might be ahead of them). But there are lots of paths for Michigan, and by the time of this game we'll know most of the outcomes.
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