It's the final Saturday of college football's regular season (pre-conference championships) and I've been wondering, where are the upsets?
The chaos we normally see has been completely absent this year. Not even a bit of the usual intrigue in 2023.
Look at the first College Football Playoff Committee ranking of the year, and take the top 13, all the teams with 1 loss or fewer, and here's how they've fared in the last three weeks (plus through Friday):
- Ohio State (8-0):won 3 straight, now 11-0. Fell to #2 for no reason. A loss to Michigan won't be an upset
- Georgia (8-0): won 3 straight, now 11-0. Moved up to #1. Plays Georgia Tech today.
- Michigan (8-0): won 3 straight, now 11-0, still #3. A loss to Ohio State would be a minor upset at best.
- Florida State (8-0): won 3 straight, now 11-0. Fell to #5 due to lack of big wins, hurt QB. Plays Florida.
- Washington (8-0): won 3 straight, now 11-0. moved up to #4.
- Oregon (7-1): won 4 straight, now 11-1. Still at #6 due of no upsets above them.
- Texas (7-1): won 4 straight, now 11-1. Still at #7 due to no upsets above them.
- Alabama (7-1): won 3 straight, now 10-1. Still at #8 due to no upsets above them.
- Oklahoma (7-1): lost to OK State, then recovered to 10-2. The only contender to be upset so far. Now at #13
- Mississippi (7-1): lost to Georgia as expected, now 10-2. Now at #12
- Penn State (7-1): lost to Michigan as expected, now 10-2. Now at #11
- Missouri (7-1): lost to Georgia as expected, now 10-2. Now at #9
- Louisville (7-1): won three straight, now 10-1. Now at #10
So going into Saturday's action, out of 42 chances for an upset, only one upset (Oklahoma State over Oklahoma) has occurred, and only 4 teams have taken a loss at all. And the top 13 teams are the same top 13 from three weeks ago, in a very slightly different order.
Last year there were more upsets after just one week, with LSU beating #6 Alabama and Notre Dame beating #4 Clemson. #1 Tennessee lost to Georgia but that wasn't really an upset at the Bulldogs were #3.
Then the next week, #6 Oregon was upset by Washington, and #12 UCLA got beat by Arizona.
And in the third week after the rankings came out, #5 Tennessee was upset by South Carolina.
Go back to 2021 and #3 Michigan State got beat by Purdue, #8 Wake Forest lost to UNC, and #12 Baylor lost to TCU in the first post-Committee week. #8 Oklahoma lost the next week to Baylor. #3 Oregon fell the next week.
So it's normal to have about 5 upsets after three weeks of Committee rankings. We're at 3.5 weeks and there's been just one, to a team that started at #9. No upsets—and not even a non-upset loss—in the top eight so far.
And already this weekend #6 and #7 have won, and #2 and #3 will feature a loss but it won't be an upset either way. That leaves Georgia, FSU, Washington, and Alabama with a chance to suffer a meaningful upset. I'm not holding my breath.
Where are the upsets???
The lack of upsets meant that in our Playoff Odds projection, the top teams actually had reduced odds, due to the reduced chance that a team that loses a single game can make the top four:
Ranking Curr | Projected | Playoff | CFP Chalk LW Rnk Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg | Curr Proj 1 1. Michigan B10e 11-0 13-0 12.6- 0.4 76.6 -12.0 3 1 2 2. Georgia SECe 11-0 13-0 12.6- 0.4 73.7 -5.1 1 2
Two weeks ago Michigan was looking like a near sure thing, with good odds even if they lost to Ohio State. But as of last week's odds, their certainty was reduced, as was Georgia's. The upsets that might have occurred in the intervening week didn't happen, and with only a game or two left, the chance for chaos needed to put a 1-loss team in the Playoff—normally there are a few of them—is reduced.
It's looking more and more like the Playoff field will be composed of undefeated teams, and maybe a few 1-loss teams that win out rather than late-term upset losers. In other words, not a Michigan, Georgia, Ohio State, or Washington who loses at this juncture, but the teams that win out and win their conference championships, be they one of the mentioned teams or an Oregon or Texas or even Alabama.
In other words, we've been saying for a while that Florida State had better win out, or they're out. Now, because no one has been losing, it applies to pretty much everyone in the running.
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