The simplest finish to this nearly upset-free home stretch would be that Georgia, Michigan, Washington, and Florida State all end up 13-0 major conference winners and the result is obvious.
But that wouldn't even be the upset-free finish. And even if it happened there's a slight chance the Committee pulls a fast one on the Seminoles like they did vs. TCU back in 2014. But let's just look at the game finishes and see what we get.
2023 Playoff Odds 11/26: post-week 13, pre-Committee meeting
Ranking Curr | Playoff | CFP Chalk LW Rnk Team Conf Rec |%Odds %Chg | Curr Proj 1 1. Michigan B10e 12-0 95.8 +19.2 3 2 2 2. Georgia SECe 12-0 82.1 +8.4 1 1 4 3. Oregon P12 11-1 65.1 +12.7 6 3 7 4. Florida St ACC 12-0 54.3 +15.9 5 4 5 5. Texas B12 11-1 51.7 +6.0 7 5 3 6. Washington P12 12-0 34.3 -21.7 4 6 6 7. Ohio State B10e 11-1 9.1 -35.0 2 7 8 8. Alabama SECw 11-1 7.7 -5.0 8 8
Lots of disruption for another week without any real upsets. Michigan has the best odds after beating Ohio State, mainly because they are such a heavy favorite to beat Iowa for the Big Ten title. And even if they lose that game somehow, if FSU or Texas loses then the Wolverines are practically a guarantee to get the fourth spot at 12-1, as Ohio State isn't going to pass them. Oregon and Washington might both get in ahead of a 12-1 Wolverines, and an Alabama upset of Georgia really jumbles things. But the bottom line is that Michigan is in great shape right now.
Georgia will likely remain #1 in the Committee rankings and should be a pretty heavy favorite playing Alabama in Atlanta. A win gives them a lock of course, but a loss really throws everything—and I mean everything—up in the air. There's a question of whether Alabama can pass a 12-1 Texas. There's even a question of whether Alabama can pass a 12-1 Georgia, though that would seem obvious, but then can Georgia stay ahead of Texas? The SEC might not get a team in if Alabama wins. But how can a 12-1 SEC winner not get a spot? The situation I've been showing all season—the SEC with relatively low Playoff Odds across the board—is here again if Alabama wins the SEC title.
Oregon is a pretty heavy favorite to beat Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Rematch. At #6 right now (maybe #5 after Tuesday) are they guaranteed a spot if they win? You'd think so, but then there's the Alabama-Georgia problem. Putting that aside, the winner of Oregon-Washington looks to have a spot sewed up, and if you add their odds (65.1% + 34.3% = 99.4%) that is pretty much the odds that a Pac-12 team makes the Playoff. A 0.6% chance of no Pac-12 team, maybe a bit more than that since there's probably a corresponding or bigger chance that both Oregon and Washington get in: if Oregon wins, and two or three of Michigan, FSU, and Texas lose.
Florida State's odds jumped almost 16% despite a shaky win over Florida—but that's the point, they got the Florida game out of the way without taking a loss. And Louisville is looking weaker after losing to Kentucky. Certainly, FSU has more than a 54.3% chance of beating Louisville, but any team pegged to finish at the #4 spot has some doubt built in that they could slip to #5 at the whim of the Committee. For things like, say, missing your starting quarterback, and playing a pretty mediocre schedule overall (their opener win vs. LSU will remain their best win). How could a 13-0 FSU fall out of the top four? Who knows, but a win by Alabama might be part of the equation along with an SEC-friendly (and ACC-unfriendly) Committee. For the most part though, we should be able to say that if FSU beats Louisville they are in.
But if they fail—or Michigan falls, and probably if Georgia loses—then Texas is in prime position to capitalize. In any situation other than four 13-0 teams, Texas should be in at 12-1 given their win over Alabama. Things are never that simple. We're assuming right now that Ohio State remains ahead of Texas come Tuesday, and if the Buckeyes fall below the Longhorns then Texas is in even better shape just from being a spot ahead (hopefully still with a Buckeye buffer between themselves and Alabama). Because if Alabama beats Georgia it could be the best or worst thing for Texas. As we described above, there might not be a spot for both the Tide and the Longhorns and although the Longhorns would deserve it, the Committee might say "oh that win was so long ago and we need to have an SEC team in the Playoff." In any case, if the Longhorns lose they are out as there are too many 0- and 1-loss teams in any scenario to accommodate the first-ever 2-loss team.
Washington's odds we covered under Oregon, basically win and the Huskies are in (guaranteed), lose and they are very likely out. But if Texas and FSU both lose, they are fighting Ohio State for the fourth spot. And with a split vs. Oregon—especially if the rematch is down-to-the-wire like the first game—the strength of the Pac-12 could put the Huskies in. A Michigan loss would help too, but that's asking a lot. An Alabama win probably doesn't help at all, again, it's hard to say who gets help in that scenario.
The Buckeyes are playing the waiting game like last year, but they need even more help. Ohio State fell to #6 in the AP poll and as long as they only fall that far they have hope. But it's under 10% for a reason: they need a Florida State loss, they need Oregon to lose (or Washington to lose badly), and they need Texas to lose, too. And Alabama can't win—that almost certainly nullified Ohio State for any chance at all as both 12-1 Alabama and 12-1 Georgia would be ahead in line.
Alabama's odds have looked terrible for quite a while in our sim, while other sims (like ESPN FPI) have had the Tide around 35%. But now even the FPI joined the club and had Alabama at a dismal 12% or so—before they seemed to revise things and boosted the Tide to around 28%. The assumption is that Alabama gets in at 12-1, and it's not a bad assumption but in my sim they rarely do better than #4, which leaves a lot of doubt. If Texas wins by the rules of fairness the Tide should not pass them, making a Michigan, Oregon/Washington, FSU, Texas final four a great possibility. But the rules of fairness are not always followed, and a Tide win could leave a 12-1 Texas out. Or both 12-1 Washington and Oregon. ESPN's FPI has the game 50/50 while I lean to Georgia a lot more, especially in Atlanta.
Really no simulation is prepared to get in the Committee's minds if Alabama wins, and our 7.7% is no doubt far too low. I'm not gonna cook the books to make things seem more realistic though, you can only get so much from an algorithm. No algorithm would have predicted TCU falling from #3 to #6 after winning 55-3. Them's the breaks.
I'll revise these numbers when the Committee makes their decisions on Tuesday; the key is how far Ohio State drops. If they only fall to #5, that gives the Buckeyes a lot more hope. If they fall to #8 below Alabama, the Buckeyes are toast and Alabama's odds will jump along with Texas's odds too.
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