The Committee really gave us no surprises, in fact their top 13 is exactly the AP top 13. The Committee simply copying the AP has been happening with greater frequency in recent years and this season is the worst, it happened from the first week of the Committee rankings.
So it doesn't change at all my analysis of the Playoff Odds, but the rest of the top 25 shows the Committee liking some teams more than the AP, and neglecting some, too.
SportsRatings College Football Playoff projections: week 13
Ranking Curr Proj | Playoff | CFP Chalk LW Rnk Team Conf Rec Rec |%Odds %Chg | Curr Proj 1 1. Michigan B10e 12-0 13-0 95.0 +18.4 2 2 2 2. Georgia SECe 12-0 13-0 81.7 +8.0 1 1 4 3. Oregon P12 11-1 12-1 66.2 +13.8 5 3 7 4. Florida St ACC 12-0 13-0 51.1 +12.7 4 4 5 5. Texas B12 11-1 12-1 50.6 +4.9 7 5 3 6. Washington P12 12-0 12-1 36.4 -23.8 3 6 6 7. Ohio State B10e 11-1 11-1 9.9 -34.2 6 7 8 8. Alabama SECw 11-1 11-2 9.0 -3.7 8 8
For completeness sake here's the top 8, the only eight teams with a shot at the top four spots. Basically Michigan is a nearly 95% favorite to beat Iowa, so their odds are about 95% to reach the playoff. Georgia is a solid favorite to beat Alabama and could sneak in (somehow) even if they lose, but that's a result that no one can really unwrap via algorithm. Oregon should be in with a win, and they're a strong favorite to beat Washington in the rematch; note that Oregon and Washington's odds add up to around 100%, so one or the other gets in, with a tiny chance for both. Florida State is a solid favorite over Louisville but their probable 4th place finish gives them "positional" doubt, that is, if Alabama beats Georgia then FSU is the most likely team to get screwed.
That means FSU and Texas are overall 50/50 propositions; both are toast if they lose, and neither is a certainty if they win. Will Alabama pass Texas if they beat Georgia? Will both Alabama and Georgia push out FSU? These are questions only the Committee can fuck up. We do see Alabama's odds as very low, both for beating Georgia in Atlanta, and for passing Texas if they do, but if both Texas and FSU lose then a 12-1 Alabama is a rightful shoo-in. And waiting in the wings for a Playoff spot is Ohio State, who gets in if FSU, Texas, Oregon, and Alabama lose. And maybe in the same scenario but replace an Oregon loss with a dominant Oregon win that makes Washington look unpalatable.
Ranking Curr Proj | Playoff | CFP Chalk LW Rnk Team Conf Rec Rec |%Odds %Chg | Curr Proj 9 9. Oklahoma B12 10-2 10-2 0.0 -0.3 12 10 11 10. Penn State B10e 10-2 10-2 0.0 0.0 10 9 13 11. Missouri SECe 10-2 10-2 0.0 0.0 9 11 12 12. Mississippi SECw 10-2 10-2 0.0 0.0 11 12 16 13. LSU SECw 9-3 9-3 0.0 0.0 13 13 10 14. Louisville ACC 10-2 10-3 0.0 -0.2 14 14
This next section is important for choosing the teams that will fill out the New Year's Six bowls. None of these teams play except Louisville, and with an upset win over Florida State the Cardinals would nab a spot as ACC champs. Our algorithm likes Oklahoma and boosts them as if the Committee is going to agree for some reason, but let's instead look at where these teams should be ranked and why.
The Committee loves Missouri, and has the Tigers above Penn State. Why? No one knows. The Tigers lost to LSU and Georgia and beat pretty much no one. If you want a team with "good" losses and good wins, it's Mississippi that should be at the top. The Rebels have lost only to 12-0 Georgia and 11-1 Alabama, and have wins over LSU and 11-1 Tulane. That should put them above Missouri—who lost to LSU—and also above Penn State, who has similar "good" losses (12-0 Michigan, 11-1 Ohio State) but only a win over 10-2 Iowa. Ole Miss and Missouri's rankings by the Committee should be flipped, with Penn State remaining #10.
And if the Committee really did its job—which is to really look into who these teams have played and beat—then LSU would be ahead of Missouri, too. The Tigers have lost to current #4 FSU, #8 Alabama, and Mississippi, who should be #9. And they beat Missouri. The Tigers can be perfectly ranked with a big of thought, but that appears to be too much for the Committee who is just copying the AP these days.
Ranking Curr Proj | Playoff | CFP Chalk LW Rnk Team Conf Rec Rec |%Odds %Chg | Curr Proj 17 15. Notre Dame IND 9-3 9-3 0.0 0.0 17 15 20 16. Arizona P12 9-3 9-3 0.0 0.0 15 16 19 17. Oklahoma St B12 9-3 9-4 0.0 0.0 18 18 28 18. Iowa B10w 10-2 10-3 0.0 0.0 16 19 15 19. Liberty CUSA 12-0 13-0 0.0 0.0 24 17 30 20. North Carolina St ACC 9-3 9-3 0.0 0.0 19 21 26 21. Oregon St P12 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 20 20 14 22. Kansas St B12 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 25 22 31 23. Clemson ACC 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 23 24
All the teams above have or will have 3-4 losses so have little chance of getting to a New Year's Six bowl. The exceptions are Iowa and Oklahoma State, who win their conferences if they get an upset win, and Liberty, who is ahead in the race to be the Group of Five rep. We don't see the former happening so let's focus on Liberty: does a 13-0 Liberty get the GoF bid? And where do they finish?
Our "chalk" projection has consistently rated Liberty too high, and they won't get to #17 at 13-0. But becoming a conference championship would get them some of the respect the Committee is denying them. It's clearly due to their weak schedule, which ranks 133rd out of 133 teams. But it's interesting that SOS is only a factor for Group of Five teams. And as I've pointed out before, Tulane's SOS is weaker if you remove the Mississippi game, which they lost. So Tulane is getting ranked ahead of Liberty essentially because they lost to Ole Miss.
Ranking Curr Proj | Playoff | CFP Chalk LW Rnk Team Conf Rec Rec |%Odds %Chg | Curr Proj 22 24. SMU AAC 10-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 -- 23 18 25. James Madison* SUNe 11-1 11-1 0.0 0.0 -- -- 23 26. Troy SUNw 10-2 11-2 0.0 0.0 -- -- 33 27. Tennessee SECe 8-4 8-4 0.0 0.0 21 -- 25 28. Tulane AAC 11-1 11-2 0.0 0.0 22 -- 21 29. Toledo MACw 11-1 12-1 0.0 0.0 -- 25
This section includes the rest of the teams vying for the Group of Five top spot. Liberty is currently #24 per the Committee, with Tulane at #22. But they have to beat SMU, who is probably a lot better so the Mustangs are favorites. But the game is at Tulane so they aren't huge favorites. This is why Liberty is the odds-on favorite to finish ahead of either AAC team: Tulane probably won't win, and SMU isn't ranked by the Committee yet and might not pass Liberty. Ultimately though this all comes down to Committee whim, and we can't tell if SMU is #26 right now or #50 in the Committee's minds.
And then there's Troy, who is expected to win the Sun Belt and gets in at #25 per the simulation, but not by the Chalk scenario, and has almost no chance of being the GoF rep because either Tulane or SMU will finish ahead of them. And so will a 12-1 Toledo team. A 12-1 James Madison would be a player here but they will remain 11-1 and won't be ranked by the Committee (though they will be playing a bowl game, thanks to a dearth of 6-win teams).
Note that Tennessee is disliked by my algorithm as much as Oklahoma is liked, and apparently they will tumble out of the top 25 once the Committee realizes its error. Good luck with that! This one's all on the Committee though, as even the AP knows Tennessee should not be in the top 25.
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