The Red River Rivalry matches two of the top 5 teams in the SportsRatings Playoff Projection:
Ranking Curr | Projected | Playoff | Bowl LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 2 1. Penn State B10e 5-0 11-1 10.9-1.1 45.4 +4.0 99.9 0.0 1 2. Ohio State B10e 4-0 13-0 11.3-1.7 43.8 +2.0 99.9 0.0 8 3. Oklahoma B12 5-0 13-0 11.4-1.6 41.3 +12.6 99.9 0.0 9 4. Oregon P12 5-0 12-1 10.8-2.2 38.3 +10.1 99.9 +0.2 7 5. Texas B12 5-0 11-2 11.0-2.0 37.1 +7.0 99.9 +0.2
So it must be a very important game, right?
Of course. It might be the most important game played so far this year. But there's a good chance that it won't matter at all by the time we get to conference championship games.
Right now Oklahoma and Texas look like two of the very best teams in the country. In fact they are #2 and #3 in our unbiased, All-Division power rating:
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk]
1. Oregon 5-0 85.84 71.62 [ 4] -14.21 [ 4]
2. Oklahoma 5-0 84.07 72.04 [ 3] -12.03 [ 7]
3. Texas 5-0 79.49 66.86 [ 10] -12.62 [ 6]
Note that both teams have a top ten Offense and top ten Defense.
And in our Overall power rating, which takes into account both Strength and Success, they are #2 and #3 but flipped:
# Team rec Overall Strength Success
1. Ohio State 4-0 44.77 [ 1] 36.52 [ 3] 8.24 [ 4]
2. Texas 5-0 43.61 [ 2] 29.64 [ 7] 13.96 [ 1]
3. Oklahoma 5-0 43.41 [ 3] 37.25 [ 2] 6.16 [ 9]
Again, in both Strength and Success, both are top ten.
So obviously, a very important game. But the thing is, these teams are so good, and have separated themselves from the rest of the Big Twelve so much, that there's a very good chance they'll meet again in the Big Twelve championship game. And the loss that one team has this coming Saturday might be the only one; they could meet again, in Arlington rather than Dallas, with one team 12-0 and the other 11-1.
Then that game would be very important. And it would render the previous meeting basically meaningless.
So this Saturday's game might not be very important at all.
Let's put it this way: the loser will still control their destiny in the Big Twelve, and very likely, to the College Football Playoff. Unless there are four 13-0 teams from the other Power Five conferences, the Red River loser can still run the table and have a place setting waiting for them.
But who will win on Saturday?
Oklahoma has been incredible so far, but there's on area in which they might struggle. Normally that would be defense, but they've been good on defense all year. Instead, their offense seems to be the kind that beats up on poor defenses but struggles a bit against good ones.
So far the Sooners have faced the following teams (offensive and defensive rank in brackets):
Rnk Opponent score Off Def #173 Arkansas St 73- 0 [177] [171] # 44 SMU 28-11 [ 77] [ 27] @ # 94 Tulsa 66-17 [ 75] [118] @ # 36 Cincinnati 20- 6 [ 58] [ 29] # 78 Iowa St 50-20 [ 85] [ 87]
The defense has performed well, even if the Sooners haven't faced a great offense yet (more on that later). But the offense has been stellar against bad defenses, averaging 63 points against the #171, #118, and #87 defense, but only 24 points against the #27 and #29 defense. Texas ranks #6 on defense, so look for Oklahoma's offense to look more like they did against SMU and Cincinnati, maybe even worse.
Texas should be fine on offense, though. They've put up between 31 and 40 points in every game, even reaching 34 vs. Alabama on the road. So while Oklahoma's defense has been strong, they're facing the first top-50 offense on their schedule. The numbers say they should hold up pretty well, but Texas should get their usual 35 points. Meanwhile, Oklahoma might have trouble getting very far past 20 points.
Texas 35, Oklahoma 20
That's my take. The Strength power rating says Oklahoma wins, 33-28, while the oddsmakers have Texas by about a touchdown.
A blowout win by either team would change this season's landscape in a big way, but other than that, it could be just a prelude to the all-important rematch.
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