Big favorites look weak in week 8: North Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, Washington fail to impress

Week eight was one of those weeks where multiple teams favored by 19+ points had close calls or were upset. A few teams played great, too. I'll keep updating as more results come in, but here's a list of the big favorites ranked by how bad they screwed the pooch:

1. North Carolina
   • Line: favored by 23.5 vs. Virginia
   • Result: lost, 31-27
   • Underperformance: -27.5
   The Tar Heels were shocked at home by a Virginia team that garnered only its 2nd win of the year
2. Washington
   • Line: favored by 26.5 vs. Arizona State
   • Result: won, 15-7
   • Underperformance: -18.5
   Four Washington turnovers kept this game close to the end
3. Oklahoma
   • Line: favored by 19 vs. Central Florida
   • Result: won 31-29
   • Underperformance: -17
   The Sooners were fortunate that the game didn't go into overtime as UCF botched a 2-point conversion attempt at the end
4. Texas
   • Line: favored by 23.5 at Houston
   • Result: Won, 31-24
   • Underperformance: -16.5
   Texas got a break with a bad call by the officials or Houston would have had first and goal and probably forced overtime
5. Oregon
   • Line: favored by 20 vs. Washington St
   • Result: Won, 38-24
   • Underperformance: -6
   The Ducks took their time pulling away from the Cougars but the result wasn't in doubt by the end
6. Michigan
   • Line: favored by 24 at Michigan State
   • Result: Won, 49-0
   • Outperformance: +25
   Michigan wasted no time in establishing their dominance over struggling MSU on the road
7. LSU
   • Line: favored by 31 vs. Army
   • Result: Won, 62-0
   • Outperformance: +31
   For some reason LSU played Army this week and it was ugly for the Black Knights
   

The upshot? North Carolina is essentially out of the national title race now with a terrible loss (they had a 7.6% chance up till now). Oklahoma and Texas both take a hit in their power ratings which will diminish their Playoff odds too, but luckily their chief roadblock—each other—also took a hit so the losses will be mitigated by that. Washington's hefty odds (around 55%) will dip a bit, maybe to 50% I suspect, as their power rating takes a hit.

Oregon's Playoff odds will probably increase; they would have remained about the same but Washington's bad performance increases Oregon's odds of winning the likely Pac-12 championship game rematch. Michigan and LSU will see about equal improvement in their power ratings, but only undefeated Michigan will see their Playoff odds jump much. 2-loss LSU has a pretty low ceiling right now; their 0.3% odds might go up to 0.5%, while Michigan's 36.2% odds should jump above 40%—maybe 50% if their odds in the road game vs. Penn State increase enough. Penn State lost to Ohio State today.

Other Playoff Odds winners should include Ohio State (for beating Penn State, obviously), Florida State (for beating Duke), and Georgia (who didn't play but should benefit from other teams looking worse and less likely to run the table).