After 5 weeks and—for most teams—five games, there are some truths emerging that can't be hidden. Two of these truths are: Georgia is having trouble on offense, and USC is in big trouble on defense. Last weekend's results were enough to drop Georgia out of our top 4 and USC out of immediate range of the Playoff.
Ranking Curr | Projected | Playoff | Bowl LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 2 1. Penn State B10e 5-0 11-1 10.9-1.1 45.4 +4.0 99.9 0.0 1 2. Ohio State B10e 4-0 13-0 11.3-1.7 43.8 +2.0 99.9 0.0 8 3. Oklahoma B12 5-0 13-0 11.4-1.6 41.3 +12.6 99.9 0.0 9 4. Oregon P12 5-0 12-1 10.8-2.2 38.3 +10.1 99.9 +0.2 7 5. Texas B12 5-0 11-2 11.0-2.0 37.1 +7.0 99.9 +0.2
Penn State and Ohio State are still the top two teams percentage-wise, with order switched from last week. Penn State pulled away from Northwestern in the 2nd half and getting that 5th win netted them +4.0%; The Buckeyes were idle and still managed a small gain, mostly from previous victim Notre Dame beating Duke. Oklahoma and Oregon both won easily and raced into the top 4, both up 5 spots and 10+ percentage points; not coincidentally, they're #1 and #2 in our unbiased power rating, and as the bias eases out of our Playoff Projections it helps both of them. Oklahoma's next foe is Texas, who also won big and moved up into striking distance.
LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 3 6. Florida St ACC 4-0 13-0 11.5-1.5 33.0 -3.4 99.9 0.0 6 7. Washington P12 5-0 11-2 10.4-2.6 29.1 -1.5 99.9 +0.4 4 8. Georgia SECe 5-0 13-0 11.1-1.9 27.1 -5.9 99.9 +0.2 5 9. Southern Cal P12 5-0 11-1 9.7-2.3 25.0 -6.3 99.8 +0.3 10 10. Michigan B10e 5-0 10-2 10.0-2.0 19.3 +2.8 99.9 +0.1
Teams in the 2nd five generally saw their odds sink. Florida State was idle but it sure didn't help for previous foe LSU to lose. Washington only beat Arizona 31-24, their first vulnerable showing. The big losers, of course, were Georgia and Southern Cal, both of whom won games but saw their Playoff Odds sink. Georgia's lackluster performances are catching up to them and as for USC, their close call with Colorado contrasts with Oregon's huge win over the Buffs, making their future game with the Ducks—in Eugune—daunting. Michigan managed a small gain due to a convincing win over Nebraska, but it didn't move the needle on the Wolverines looking like the 3rd best team in the Big Ten East.
LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 12 11. Alabama SECw 4-1 11-2 10.0-3.0 14.3 +3.0 99.8 +1.4 13 12. Oregon St P12 4-1 9-3 8.8-3.2 8.1 -1.4 98.6 +1.2 14 13. Mississippi SECw 4-1 10-2 9.4-2.6 7.9 +1.9 99.9 +1.0 16 14. Notre Dame IND 5-1 10-2 9.3-2.7 5.5 +0.7 99.9 +2.0
At #11 through #14 we have the best of the 1-loss teams. All of them have beaten another 1-loss team.
Alabama leads here because of Georgia's weakness; it's seeming increasingly likely for Alabama to beat Georgia in the SEC title game, and Bama controls their destiny to get there, unlike Mississippi who makes a small gain for beating LSU last week. Notre Dame got past 1-loss Duke. And Oregon State beat Utah which it seems should have boosted their odds but instead they fall by 1.4 percent. Bottom line, Oregon's surge hurts (OSU plays the Ducks on the road), while USC's drop doesn't help because Oregon State doesn't play the Trojans. Instead, they play a surging Colorado team! In all, the Pac-12 landscape didn't improve for the Beavers despite the important Utah win, and they are expected to go about 9-3.
LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 19 15. North Carolina ACC 4-0 11-2 9.7-3.3 4.2 0.0 99.2 +0.8 20 16. Washington St P12 4-0 9-3 8.6-3.4 3.2 -0.5 97.9 +0.4 11 17. Utah P12 4-1 8-4 8.1-3.9 2.8 -9.4 97.8 -1.8 22 18. Tennessee SECe 4-1 9-3 8.8-3.2 2.2 -0.7 99.7 +1.5 23 19. Kansas St B12 3-1 10-2 9.0-3.0 1.8 -0.6 98.7 +1.5
By this point the odds are under 5% per team, and most teams see their odds decline. North Carolina was idle and appropriately their odds remain the same, even as they climb four spots due to other teams losing. Washington State was also idle and also rises four spots but their odds decline a bit (like Oregon State, the Cougars play Oregon and Colorado but not USC, so last weekend's results sucked for them). Utah's odds dropped almost 10% with their first loss. Tennessee had a solid win over South Carolina and while it made them almost a certainty for a bowl game, it did nothing for their Playoff Odds. Kansas State was idle and had almost the exact same result as Tennessee: bowl odds up, playoff odds down.
LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 21 20. Louisville ACC 5-0 9-3 9.5-2.5 1.8 -1.4 99.8 +1.1 15 21. Duke ACC 4-1 9-3 8.7-3.3 1.7 -3.4 98.9 +1.8 26 22. Miami FL ACC 4-0 9-3 8.6-3.4 1.4 +0.7 97.4 +4.7
Three ACC teams hoping to make the conference title game, which currently looks like FSU vs. UNC. Louisville is 5-0 now and just made the AP top 25, but their narrow win over NC State just about cut their Playoff chances in half. Duke's odds fell by 2/3 with their first loss (to Notre Dame). Miami was idle but the Hurricanes doubled their odds! Only up to 1.4% from 0.7% but that's pretty good for no effort. The main factor is that Miami's four wins this season are counting more each week, rather than last season's awful results. And Texas A&M is continuing to shine; in fact, Miami has beaten two teams that are now 4-1 (A&M and Miami Ohio).
Louisville plays both Miami and Duke, but the 'Canes and Blue Devils do not meet this season.
LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 24 23. UCLA P12 3-1 9-3 8.3-3.7 1.1 -0.4 96.4 +0.7 29 24. Maryland B10e 5-0 9-3 8.3-3.7 0.8 +0.2 97.5 +6.4 32 25. Air Force MTN 5-0 13-0 11.0-2.0 0.7 +0.3 99.9 +0.6 17 26. Syracuse ACC 4-1 9-3 8.8-3.2 0.7 -4.0 98.6 -0.6 18 27. LSU SECw 3-2 9-3 8.1-3.9 0.4 -4.1 96.8 +0.3 28 28. Fresno St MTN 5-0 12-1 10.4-2.6 0.4 -0.2 99.8 +0.1
Not a lot of movement here except for the obvious drop of Syracuse and LSU, both down about 4% after losing last weekend. LSU has the highest odds of any 2-loss team at 0.4%, or a 1 in 250 chance of being the first 2-loss team to make the Playoff. UCLA was idle and hardly budges—they play both USC and Colorado so that game was a wash for the Bruins' chances, and they don't play Oregon so the Ducks' surge didn't matter. But future opponent Oregon State beating Utah (who beat UCLA) probably causes the 0.4% drop. Maryland (5-0) makes the top 25 but the Terps play Ohio State on Saturday in a make or break game.
Air Force also soars into the top 25, and are the only Group of Five team currently. With Tulane's demise (after the loss to Ole Miss weeks ago), it's looking increasingly like the Mountain West winner—possibly a 12-0 clash of Air Force and Fresno State—will be the G5 rep in the New Year's Six bowl.
LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 39 36. Iowa B10w 4-1 10-2 8.5-3.5 <0.1 -0.1 95.9 +3.6 33 38. Auburn SECw 3-2 6-6 6.7-5.3 <0.1 -0.3 80.8 +2.3 31 41. Florida SECe 3-2 5-7 5.9-6.1 <0.1 -0.4 60.6 -15.7 35 44. TCU B12 3-2 6-6 6.1-5.9 <0.1 -0.2 64.7 -14.0 41 47. Arizona P12 3-2 5-7 5.5-6.5 <0.1 -0.1 49.2 -3.0 27 48. Central Florida B12 3-2 9-3 7.2-4.8 <0.1 -0.7 87.3 -6.7
Six teams fell from measurable odds to essentially nil. Iowa was the only team to fall into this zone despite winning on Saturday. Looks like their #107 offense doesn't give them a real shot at the Playoff. Nor did Auburn's valiant effort vs. Georgia save them from near-oblivion (thought their bowl odds gained a bit). Florida's bowl odds also took a hit because they were terrible vs. Kentucky; likewise TCU's 2nd loss (to West Virginia) put their bowl eligibility in jeopardy. Arizona, like Auburn, did well vs. an undefeated opponent but the Wildcats slip below 50% bowl odds (yes, they play Colorado, and on the road).
UCF was upset by Baylor but they still have much better bowl odds than TCU (87% to 65%). The Knights are projected to have about 1.1 more wins (7.2 to 6.1) than the Horned Frogs despite their power ratings being about the same. They both play Oklahoma and Texas Tech, so the different projection probably comes down to TCU having to face Texas and Kansas State, while UCF plays Oklahoma State and Houston.
LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 37 30. Texas A&M SECw 4-1 7-5 7.6-4.4 0.3 +0.2 93.1 +21.5 40 33. Kentucky SECe 5-0 6-6 7.3-4.7 0.1 0.0 89.7 +22.5 91 77. South Florida AAC 3-2 7-5 6.9-5.1 0.0 0.0 83.1 +20.9 105 88. Bowling Green MACe 2-3 7-5 5.8-6.2 0.0 0.0 61.1 +29.9 61 90. Georgia Tech ACC 2-3 4-8 4.3-7.7 0.0 0.0 19.3 -24.2 106 122. UTEP CUSA 1-5 3-9 3.5-8.5 0.0 0.0 11.0 -24.0 110 125. Kent St MACe 1-4 1-11 3.6-8.4 0.0 0.0 11.9 -22.7
Big bowl-odds movements: Texas A&M and Kentucky made believers out of our bowl projections. The Aggies beat Arkansas and really, it's just the growing realization that they're for real, not that game in particular. But Kentucky's 33-14 mauling of Florida made a big difference. Both teams gain over 20%, as does South Florida for beating Navy on the road 44-30. Bowling Green nearly doubled their bowl odds—from 31.2% to 61.1% as the Falcons are now favored to win 7 games straight up. They beat Georgia Tech on the road and the Yellow Jackets suffer a near-25% drop in their own bowl odds which are now below 20%. UTEP's fall is just as bad after losing to Louisiana Tech at home 24-10, and Kent State fell 23-3 at home to Miami Ohio; both teams are nearing single-digit odds
LW 9/30 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 78 53. Colorado P12 3-2 5-7 5.3-6.7 <0.1 0.0 40.4 +6.2
And of course what kind of breakdown would it be without talking about Colorado? The Buffaloes put on another outstanding performance—on offense—in nearly coming back to beat USC. They fell short, 48-41, but that was much better than the previous outing at Oregon (a 42-6 defeat). That loss dropped the Buffs from #58 to #78, but last Saturday's loss brought them all the way back up, even putting them back in the not-completely-zero zone for Playoff Odds. But yeah, their Playoff odds are essentially zero. Their bowl odds are up to 40%, their best showing so far, and still probably lagging reality. Note that they started with last year's rating, and are still a few weeks away from being fully acknowledged for their play this season. They're #40 in our All-Division power rating (no pre-season bias). Their next two games—at Arizona State and home vs. Stanford—are must-wins if they want to be in a bowl game.
Comments