At the real mid-point of the season (week 7, since teams do have bye weeks and whatnot), let's look at bowl odds: who went up and down the most after last weekend's action.
Up: All the teams below raised their bowl odds an impressive +25% or more. Surprisingly, there's not a 5-win team among the group, and most are only half-way to the six-win goal.
Ranking Curr | Projected | Playoff | Bowl LW Rnk Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 67 42. Arizona P12 4-3 8-4 7.3- 4.7 0.0 0.0 93.9 +40.0 76 47. Iowa St B12 4-3 7-5 6.4- 5.6 0.0 0.0 78.1 +44.7 70 50. TCU B12 4-3 5-7 6.1- 5.9 0.0 0.0 67.0 +26.7 77 56. Oklahoma St B12 4-2 6-6 6.3- 5.7 0.0 0.0 70.5 +33.1 89 60. Northern Illinois MACw 3-4 8-4 7.3- 4.7 0.0 0.0 97.1 +36.3 100 61. Florida Atlantic AAC 3-3 8-4 7.1- 4.9 0.0 0.0 86.8 +49.7 90 71. Bowling Green MACe 3-4 7-5 6.8- 5.2 0.0 0.0 90.7 +37.1 86 73. Illinois B10w 3-4 5-7 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 47.3 +26.4 95 81. Virginia Tech ACC 3-4 5-7 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 46.5 +25.3
Arizona was looking like a 50/50 bowl team last week but a stunning 44-6 win over Washington State, on the road no less, rocketed their stock and now they're favored to win four of their last five games! A 7-5 finish is more reasonable but they can gain bowl eligibility by just beating Colorado and Arizona State—both road games, but as we just saw that's no impediment.
Three Big Twelve teams hit the jackpot. Iowa State had about a 1 in 3 bowl chance before last week's 30-10 win at Cincinnati gave them a 4th win. Now favored in 3 more games, the Cyclones should beat Baylor next week and seal it either against Kansas or BYU, because they finish with Texas and K-State. TCU moved above the 50% mark by crushing BYU, but Oklahoma State's return from the dead two weeks ago is the most impressive. The Cowboys topped Kansas State and Kansas and went from 20% odds two weeks ago to 70% today. It might be close but their best bets for two more wins are Cincinnati and BYU, both at home.
Two MAC teams jumped over 35% and both are near-locks even though they are both just 3-4. Northern Illinois' major upset of Ohio puts them at an incredible 97%. Needing to win 3 of 5, their easy schedule is a help as they face 1-6 Ball State, 1-6 Kent State, and 2-5 Western Michigan. Bowling Green has perhaps an easier schedule, with those three plus 1-6 Akron, so they should get to six wins despite also facing 6-1 Toledo.
Florida Atlantic was the biggest gainer of all, adding nearly 50% to their odds by beating South Florida 56-14. They're now favored to win five more games, but more realistically should finish 7-5. Their remaining schedule includes only one team over .500.
Illinois and Virginia Tech both boosted their odds a lot but remain just under 50%. The Illini upset Maryland on the road and need 3 wins in 5 games, against a schedule where only Indiana (2-4) is below .500. They do face 3-3 Minnesota and Northwestern. The Hokies beat Wake Forest 30-13 to boost their odds but also need three wins. They play Virginia (1-5) and Boston College (3-3) but both are on the road.
Down: These nine teams all lost 25% or more in bowl odds; in every case, they are now below the 50% mark.
LW Rnk Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 31 70. Brigham Young B12 4-2 4-8 5.6- 6.4 0.0 0.0 48.6 -27.6 60 78. Boise St MTN 3-4 5-7 5.5- 6.5 0.0 0.0 45.6 -32.9 56 79. South Carolina SECe 2-4 5-7 5.0- 7.0 0.0 0.0 35.0 -29.8 62 82. Central Florida B12 3-3 5-7 5.4- 6.6 0.0 0.0 47.3 -25.4 78 97. Wake Forest ACC 3-3 3-9 4.3- 7.7 0.0 0.0 10.9 -28.2 83 101. Army IND 2-4 5-7 4.5- 7.5 0.0 0.0 17.3 -37.0 79 102. South Florida AAC 3-4 5-7 5.2- 6.8 0.0 0.0 43.2 -33.6 97 106. Alabama-Birmingham AAC 2-5 4-8 4.3- 7.7 0.0 0.0 17.0 -25.7 94 107. East Carolina AAC 1-5 4-8 3.8- 8.2 0.0 0.0 9.9 -27.6
BYU has the saddest story. They had four wins and were above 75% odds last week before their 44-11 loss at TCU (which put the Horned Frogs on the most improved list). Now the Cougars are near 50% with six games to go, needing only two wins. That's because five of the six teams they play are above .500, including both Texas and Oklahoma. So realistically they need two wins in four games, but they're not favored in another contest. Central Florida, also new to the Big Twelve, didn't even play last week and dropped below .500. Oklahoma State's surge helped dampen their odds, but that's still one of two games they're expected to win. The Knights face Oklahoma next and to say the least, winning that would put them back over .500.
Not long ago Boise State seemed headed for the Mountain West title game despite several non-conference losses. Now at 3-4 after a 31-30 loss at Colorado State, the Broncos are fighting for a bowl bid. They have a gimme vs. New Mexico but between Wyoming (5-2), at Fresno State (6-1), Air Force (6-0), and at Utah State (3-4), are there 2 more wins? 50/50 seems about right.
South Carolina is in the SEC so getting to six wins is never easy for a middle-of-the-pack team. Losing at home to Florida 41-39 tipped the Gamecocks from above-average odds to around 1 in 3. They're 2-4, needing to finish 4-2; their remaining schedule includes three solid conference foes, 2-6 Vanderbilt, Jacksonville State (no gimme at 5-2), and 4-2 Clemson. Three wins looks very likely—in fact, probable—but the 4th is elusive.
Wake Forest is becoming the ACC's punching bag, a role they played for many decades but had broken out of in recent times. They're 0-3 in conference play and aren't favored in another game after falling 30-13 at Virginia Tech. Their remaining schedule includes FSU, Duke, and Notre Dame so they probably have to sweep Pitt, NC State, and Syracuse (road). Our odds say that's barely over a 1 in 10 chance.
Army needs four more wins, and has around a 1 in 6 chance of getting them. It looked good last week when they were at 50%, but getting shut out 19-0 at home by Troy really put a damper on things. They have have UMass at home but also face LSU and undefeated Air Force. The Black Knights will very likely be 3-6 after that, leaving them tasked with beating Holy Cross, Coastal Carolina, and Navy to go 6-6. That sounds doable but Holy Cross is a good team so those are three close games, and they need all three. They're all at home or neutral (Navy) so that helps.
Three teams in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) took a dive this week. South Florida, as noted above, lost 56-14 to Florida Atlantic and went from over 3/4 odds to less than 1/2. Not only did the loss hurt but the magnitude was enough to make them underdogs at UConn, meaning they project to 5-7 and no bowl. But it's close: beat UConn, Temple, and Charlotte and they're in, so this week's game in East Hartford is critical for the Bulls. UAB and East Carolina were already underwater but things got worse. The Blazers fell 41-20 to UTSA and now need to finish 4-1 against a schedule that includes Memphis and a rapidly improving Florida Atlantic. Those are their next two games, and both are at home, and by then we'll know if UAB is still alive. The Pirates were crushed 31-10 by SMU and need to go 5-1. It's pretty amazing that they have a 10% of doing so, but they're favored against Charlotte, Navy, and Tulsa (the latter two just barely). And getting those means they need wins against two of UTSA, Tulane, and FAU. Good luck!
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