The Georgia Bulldogs haven't been playing like a #1 team so far in 2023. That's pretty clear. But how good are they, and what will we learn from the Auburn game?
How Good (or Bad) Are the Bulldogs? A No-Bias Look...
Our Strength power rating for FBS games only puts Georgia at....#43.
# Team rec Overall Strength Success 42. Georgia Tech 2-2 11.69 [ 43] 10.59 [ 42] 1.09 [ 56] 43. Georgia 4-0 13.90 [ 41] 10.27 [ 43] 3.62 [ 17] 44. Coastal Carolina 2-2 10.27 [ 45] 9.35 [ 44] 0.92 [ 61]
Yes, #43.
That puts them in the company of Georgia Tech and Coastal Carolina. Seriously?
Let's take a breath here. This is after just four games—and, for almost every team, just three FBS games. And this is with absolutely no bias from pre-season rankings. There's not enough information to make a conclusive ranking for any team. Just a generalization, and a generalization that might be completely off.
So let's look at the All-Division Strength power rating, which includes every game. That gives four data points, which is much better than three.
Here, Georgia is #23.
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk] 22. UCLA 3-1 63.18 52.72 [ 58] -10.45 [ 8] 23. Georgia 4-0 62.72 53.17 [ 55] -9.55 [ 11] 24. Louisville 4-0 62.01 63.38 [ 14] 1.36 [ 67]
That puts the Bulldogs in the company of UCLA and Louisville. A bit better than Georgia Tech and Coastal Carolina, but still not the kind of company we'd expect. But at least they're in the top 25!
What is going on here? Well once again, it's a small sample size. Four games is much, much better than three, but every other ranking is still using prior information from last season and pre-season judgements to make their calls. I like to show early, unbiased power ratings to demonstrate how teams are doing independent of that bias—with the caveat that many of these "judgements" will be wrong.
Georgia is clearly one case. As you can see, their Offense is only ranked #55, while the Defense is #11 (which is still low compared to last year's #1 ranking)
But there is something to look at here. Georgia's offense has definitely not looked very good this year. They scored 45 points on Ball State, about the same as Kentucky and Georgia Southern did. They scored 24 on South Carolina, less than North Carolina and Mississippi State did. And against UAB they put up 49, but once again, Georgia Southern scored the same amount. They clearly aren't distancing themselves from the pack offensively.
And in nearly every game, it's taken their offense some time to get going. They scored 7 in the first quarter on Tennessee-Martin; 0 points in the first quarter against Ball State; just 3 points in the entire first half vs. South Carolina; and just again in the first quarter vs. UAB.
That's just 17 total points in the first quarter, or 4.25 points on average in the first 15 minutes. That's bad.
And our early power ratings aren't the only ones flashing alerts. ESPN's FPI has an "Efficiencies" tab which clearly shows no pre-season bias to its calculations, as Georgia is only #21—very similar to our unbiased results—with the offense ranked #24 and defense #19. They also break out the special teams, which comes in at #124.
So is special teams a big part of the problem? Maybe, but most people point to injuries. The offense has been riddled with them since the start of the season and it's only gotten worse. Presumably, as they heal up the offense will improve.
They're also breaking in a new quarterback, and we've seen many top teams struggle on offense this year with a new QB. And there's the issue of motivation as the Bulldogs face a poor early slate of opponents after winning back-to-back national titles.
So How Good Are They Really?
Early power ratings are much more accurate when they do retain pre-season bias. And there, the news is mixed but much better for the Bulldogs. SportsRatings Bayesian model, used for our College Football Playoff Projections, puts Georgia at #6. That's why they're at #4 in our Playoff Projections, and still favored in every game going forward.
ESPN's FPI lists Georgia at #5, and Bill Connelly (also at ESPN) has the Bulldogs at #2.
But not #1, which is where they remain in the AP poll with 55 of 63 first-place votes.
I think it's clear that so far, Georgia has not played like the #1 team. They've played like a borderline top 5 team. And the Auburn game will tell us a lot about where they should be ranked.
Auburn's defense looks strong so far this year, ranking #6 in our early power ratings as well as the FPI's efficiency rankings. Georgia's offense can prove it's worth in its first road game vs. the Tigers.
A solid win over the Tigers on the road would answer a lot of questions. Of course, a bad performance, especially a loss, would call into question whether Georgia has a good enough offense to be ranked even in the top 10.
It could be the game that exposes Georgia. With two strong defenses and (so far) weak offenses, it could be a very low-scoring game, which could give Auburn a shot at winning near the end. Will this be the game that proves the nay-sayers correct about the Bulldogs?
Even a narrow win won't convince anyone that something is wrong. Get healthy, people will say, and they'll be ok. And the defense will carry them through most of their schedule anyway.
But five games in a row with poor offensive production can't be ignored. If Georgia doesn't come alive on offense against Auburn—a rival—then what will motivate them?
(Note: A shitty AI article on CBS Sports claims that last year's Auburn game was a 63-56 Georgia win, wtf CBS Sports, you suck. It was 42-10, where the hell did you get that wrong score? Oh, it's the overall record in the series. Get an editor ffs!)
The other possibility—a Georgia blowout win—would assuage a lot of worries in Athens. Don't think the fans don't see the struggling offense. And they aren't buying the injury excuse, either. Many teams have injuries but still dominate their opponents, especially if they have national title hopes. To be fair though, there have been some big-time teams with poor results on offense this season.
For example, Michigan's first four games aren't exactly amazing on offense, scoring just over 30 points each time out. And Utah has been terrible, averaging 22 points in four wins. Michigan was without Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines for the first three, and looked a bit better vs. Rutgers, but the jury is still out. Utah is without starting QB Cam Rising, so they have a good excuse but still should be doing better than they are.
But Georgia is supposedly the #1 team and they aren't playing close to it. I'm not convinced. They have two more games to show that they're up there with the best before I start believing the power ratings, and Auburn's defense—on the road—is the kind of test they need to show that they haven't faded.
Georgia is a 14 point favorite at Auburn. If they beat that spread then it will be convincing, because our early power rating—the one where they are #23—only shows them scoring 14 points vs. Auburn!
Something's gotta give. Either the power ratings will be forced to re-adjust...or, people's expectations for Georgia will need an adjustment.
Comments