We're three games into the season and three is a magic number: at this point the Strength power rating starts to make sense—most of the time. Mixed in with general correctness is the occasional crazy outlier which is the product of a small sample size and low connectivity.
It's important to note that we're looking at the All-Division ratings, so that games between teams of different divisions are counted (almost every FBS team has played an FCS team). This gives every team three games to work with, and there's a huge difference between 2 and 3 games in terms of accurate ratings.
In general the ratings look fairly sound, with most teams ranked within ten (or maybe twenty) spots of where they probably deserve to be. The top 100 is dominated by FBS teams as it should be, and likewise the top 25 is dominated by Power Five conference squads, so it passes the basic reality tests already. That doesn't mean things won't be out of whack here and there, so let's take a look:
# Team rec Rating Offense[rnk] Defense[rnk]
1. Oklahoma 3-0 87.80 81.65 [ 2] -6.15 [ 40]
The Oklahoma Sooners are the #1 team after three games. Is this legit? They've beaten Arkansas State 73-0, SMU 28-11, and Tulsa 66-17. The latter was a road game so they haven't just run up scores at home. The offense is certainly great but so far the defense is untested and still a question mark for a supposed #1 team.
2. Southern Cal 3-0 87.20 84.02 [ 1] -3.18 [ 59]
3. Oregon 3-0 85.00 81.43 [ 3] -3.57 [ 57]
4. Washington 3-0 84.56 74.37 [ 6] -10.19 [ 24]
Three Pac-12 teams from #2 to #4 reflects the early big start for that conference. But you can see a pattern here: top ten offenses and not-so-great defenses. USC has put up an average of 59 points per game in three home games against teams that have two total wins. Oregon averaged 58 points; their schedule includes an FCS team but they did go on the road (a 38-30 win at Texas Tech). Washington averaged 47 points against three FBS teams but their big 41-7 win at Michigan State may have been somewhat of a fluke given the Spartans coaching situation. As usual we'll have to wait and see if these defenses hold up.
5. Penn State 3-0 83.88 69.02 [ 12] -14.85 [ 8]
6. Ohio State 3-0 81.33 58.76 [ 44] -22.56 [ 1]
The two top Big Ten teams so far are Penn State and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions have impressed against some decent teams including their 30-13 road win over Illinois. Ohio State has allowed only 20 total points so far, giving them the #1 opponent-adjusted scoring defense...but the offense has been mediocre at best. Can this analysis be true? Last year's Buckeyes had the #1 offense and #18 defense, have they really flipped their team's strengths and weaknesses so completely? Doesn't seem too likely, but you can't argue with the on-field results so far.
7. Miami FL 3-0 78.40 68.80 [ 13] -9.59 [ 27]
Miami is back! At least, after three games it seems true as the Hurricanes are in the top ten, and sturdy on both offense and defense. They even have a win over another top 25 team, Texas A&M, and their first victim, Miami of Ohio, just upset Cincinnati.
8. Mississippi 3-0 78.40 74.72 [ 5] -3.67 [ 55]
9. Oregon St 3-0 77.18 65.78 [ 15] -11.39 [ 18]
10. Florida St 3-0 76.94 73.61 [ 7] -3.33 [ 58]
For any team in the top ten this early, there are questions. Ole Miss started strong and has followed through for the most part, but allowed 20+ points twice. Florida State had two great games—including the LSU win—but barely survived Boston College last weekend. Both teams have top ten offenses and questionable defense. Oregon State looks more balanced, and their results are more consistent.
11. UCLA 3-0 75.77 62.98 [ 24] -12.78 [ 16]
12. Syracuse 3-0 75.14 62.04 [ 29] -13.09 [ 15]
13. Texas 3-0 74.86 64.20 [ 21] -10.65 [ 22]
14. Duke 3-0 74.11 57.67 [ 55] -16.43 [ 5]
15. Auburn 3-0 73.45 59.93 [ 38] -13.51 [ 12]
UCLA is the fifth Pac-12 team in the top 11, and Auburn only the 2nd SEC team in the top 15. Does this match reality? It's probably a bit skewed at this point you'd have to say, but partly reflects a trend this year with those conferences. Also the ACC is having a moment, with Syracuse and Duke both in the top 15. Obviously Duke beat Clemson and has played well otherwise—particularly on defense—while Syracuse is under most people's radar (just 2 votes in the AP poll). Are the Orange for real? Hard to say but one team that seems for real is Texas, which the Alabama win pretty much proved, so in their case we aren't revealing any secrets.
16. Texas A&M 2-1 72.97 73.37 [ 8] 0.39 [ 83]
17. Georgia 3-0 72.44 52.99 [ 76] -19.45 [ 4]
18. Kansas St 2-1 71.99 61.39 [ 33] -10.60 [ 23]
19. Notre Dame 4-0 71.85 66.38 [ 14] -5.47 [ 45]
20. Air Force 3-0 71.54 59.21 [ 43] -12.33 [ 17]
Finally at #17 we find the AP #1 team, the Georgia Bulldogs. Why so low? Remember we said things can be out of whack after just three games in the sample; we don't know how good their oponents (Tennesse-Martin, Ball State, and South Carolina) are. But we do know that the Gamecocks played better against Georgia than they did in losing to North Carolina. Clearly Georgia is having some issues on offense—they're obviously not as bad as #76, but they don't look even top 25 yet on that side of the ball. The defense looks solid and that is reflected in their #4 ranking. Almost no one would think Georgia is outside the top ten, but it's legit to question if they're really #1, or even top 5.
Miami's win over Texas A&M was celebrated as a big deal, but maybe the Aggies are just like last year's mediocre team? The early power rating says no, they are also for real. Other than the Miami loss they've outscored opponents 99 to 13. Kansas State and Notre Dame rank almost exactly the same but Notre Dame has been pretty consistent over four wins while K-State looked great in their first two and mediocre in their loss at Missouri. And Air Force is a bit of a surprise here; they were 10-3 last year but against a very easy schedule. The Falcons are the highest-ranked non-Power Five team so they're worthy of keeping on eye on, and they did beat Utah State more convincingly than Iowa did.
21. Central Florida 3-0 71.33 64.16 [ 22] -7.16 [ 34]
22. LSU 2-1 71.17 65.48 [ 16] -5.68 [ 44]
23. California 2-1 70.80 57.46 [ 56] -13.33 [ 14]
24. Michigan 3-0 69.94 49.90 [ 99] -20.03 [ 2]
25. Alabama 2-1 68.48 61.47 [ 32] -7.01 [ 35]
Here's another bit of craziness—or is it foresight? Michigan, the current AP #2, is at #24 and Alabama is at #25. Let's look at the Tide first. It's true that Alabama is only #13 in the AP at this point but no one thinks of them as being anything other than a top 10, probably top 5 team. But the home loss to Texas and 17-3 win at South Florida really put that in question; they've looked pedestrian in 2 of their 3 games so far. The USF game seemed like a fluke though as Nick Saban tested out two new quarterbacks, so consider this a worst-case. We'll know a lot more when they host Mississippi (currently #8 in these rankings) next week. It could be a confirmation of their lowered status, or perhaps a redemption like LSU had when they beat Mississippi State 41-14 on the road, mitigating the doubts caused by the FSU loss.
What about Michigan? Their odds of winning the Big Ten East look perilous with Penn State and Ohio State in the top ten and the Wolverines at #24. You see the Iowa-like offense/defense discrepancy (#99 vs. #2) which reflects the fact that they've scored in the 30s every game and held opponents to single digits. The defense is certainly elite, the question is whether the offense is being held back by not having Jim Harbaugh at the moment? It could be that they're just "taking care of business" rather than putting on a show like Harbaugh teams do. We'll find out in a few weeks when he returns for the Nebraska road game, correction: he returns this coming Saturday vs. Rutgers! but their real tests aren't until November.
Central Florida beat Boise State on the blue turf so they might be for real. California lost 14-10 to Auburn and the Tigers rank #15, so that counts as a "good loss"—at least for right now. We don't know whether that will hold, but the Bears have been pretty solid otherwise.
27. Texas-Permian Basin 2-1 66.79 74.73 [ 4] 7.94 [146]
42. Western Colorado 3-0 61.95 47.86 [125] -14.09 [ 11]
And just outside the top 25, we of course have Texas-Permian Basin. Wait, what? How is that even a team, and why are they knocking on the door of the Top 25? The Falcons are not an FBS team, and they're not even an FCS team, they're Division II. So yes, this is one of those flukes that can happen after a 3-game sample and no connectivity to the rest of the world yet. You can guess from their offense and defense rankings what is going on—they're running up the score against bad teams and the algorithm doesn't know any better yet. TPB beat Texas College 96-0 and Southwest Baptist 86-7. That's 182-7 in two games, and the first game was shortened by 5 minutes. For reference, Texas College (NAIA) currently ranks #636 vs. #754 last year, and Southwest Baptist #315 vs. #349. So there is a bit of catching up on those teams, but there's also the matter of their 35-27 loss to Western Colorado.
Yes, the Falcons are just 2-1, with two ridiculous wins and one close loss. It's enough to put Western Colorado way too high themselves, at #42 and give them a #11 defensive rating! But it goes to show what will happen to Permian when they face a capable defense. They might be the Division II equivalent of 1989 Houston, who ran up gaudy scores in their 9 wins but lost two close games. The 1989 Cougars still finished #1 in Strength, so Permian might be a top 5 Division II team even with a few losses, even as they inevitably slide out of the top 100 here (they were #368 last year). They'll be fun to keep an eye on, and I kinda wish I could see a TPB game. Apparently they converted an onside kick after their first touchdown of the year. That's commitment to scoring.
30. Texas Tech 1-2 65.15 50.30 [ 95] -14.84 [ 9]
31. Iowa 3-0 65.06 50.09 [ 96] -14.96 [ 7]
32. Utah 3-0 65.03 49.70 [102] -15.32 [ 6]
A big trend early is divergence between offensive rating and defensive rating, as seen by these three teams. We all know Iowa is famous for great defense and terrible offense, so their #96 to #7 mix is probably correct. But neither Texas Tech nor Utah had this issue last year. For the Red Raiders it looks like their great defense rating is completely due to holding Oregon to "only" 38 points, while their offense has put up over 30 points a game. So that will probably sort out as teams play more games. Utah's offense does look a bit weak, averaging just 25 per game, and the defense does look very good (as it was last year). That one is more likely to end up true, though I doubt their schizm will end up as big as Iowa's.
65. Tennessee 2-1 54.90 43.88 [172] -11.01 [ 21]
The biggest underperformer so far against the AP poll? After the last two weeks it has to be Tennessee. Based on no pre-conceived notions, the Vols are not close to their #23 AP ranking. They started well beating Virginia 49-13, but Virginia is 0-3 now. The Vols beat Austin Peay just 30-13, which I though might be due to looking ahead to Florida. But the Gators embarrassed Tennessee 29-16. So far the defense looks sound but the offense, terrible. They won't end up with the #172 offense but it shows a work in progress with Joe Milton at QB.
41. Colorado 3-0 62.10 70.13 [ 10] 8.02 [148]
The team everyone wants to see correctly ranked is Colorado. Was beating TCU a fluke? Was dominating Nebraska an accurate representation? Or does their double overtime win vs. Colorado State mean they're coming back down to earth? So far the Buffaloes rank outside the top 25, but that's way better than last year's #159 finish. And having a top ten offense and #148 defense isn't out of the question, as the Buffs have looked elite on offense at times and porous on D. The jury is still out on just how good they are, though. We'll know a lot more in a few weeks after they've faced the #2 and #3 teams in the early rankings!
40. Idaho 2-1 62.29 56.94 [ 61] -5.34 [ 46]
51. Youngstown St 2-1 58.14 61.14 [ 35] 2.99 [ 97]
62. North Dakota St 3-0 55.09 59.51 [ 41] 4.41 [108]
So who is the best team in the FCS? According to very preliminary results, it's Idaho. The Vandals beat Lamar 42-17, crushed Nevada 33-6 on the road, and lost just 31-17 at California. Playing a majority D-I schedule so far they've been solid. They were #17 in the final Overall FCS power rating last year at 7-5, will this be a better year for the Vandals? Or will Youngstown State (last year's #31) make the big move? So far they've crushed Valpo 52-10, beat Robert Morris 48-28, and played respectably at Ohio State losing just 35-7. For reference we include North Dakota State, perennial title contender, who is in 3rd place for FCS teams at #62. The Bison beat Eastern Washington 35-10, Maine 44-7, and Central Arkansas 49-31.
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