Best/Worst of Week One: Ole Miss tops list of one-game-only rankings

If we had to choose a national champion based only on performance in Week One, who would it be? Here's my list, along with lists of the teams who did better than expectations, and worse.

The One-Game Top Ten: Best performances in the first weekend (made prior to Sunday's games). Three SEC teams in the Playoff?

1. Mississippi - beat Mercer 73-7 (rating: 84.64)
   The Rebels demolished Mercer, a pretty solid FCS team ranked #22 pre-season in the FCS Coaches Poll. Last year's Mercer team had a strong offense and they scored on their first play from scrimmage on a 75-yard run...then Ole Miss ran off 66 straight points to finish the game, using QBs Jaxson Dart (4 TDs) and Spencer Sanders (2 TDs). Mississippi outperformed greatly on both offense and defense; we should have expected Mercer to score about 21, and Ole Miss closer to 44. Either Mercer has declined a lot from last year, or Ole Miss is a legit national title contender. That's a lot to base on one game, vs. an FCS foe, but this is the One Game Rankings and that's how it's done.
2. Oklahoma - beat Arkansas State 73-0 (83.54)
   The Red Wolves weren't very good last year but they were easily good enough to score on Oklahoma's mediocre 2022 defense. But this year's Sooners team looks to have vastly improved on D, and the offense looks fantastic, too. QB Dillon Gabriel went 19-of-22 and Jackson Arnold was 11-of-11, for 422 total yards, spread out among 10 targets. The Red Wolves missed two field goals (44 and 43 yards) so some of the credit for the shutout goes to their woeful offense, but they never got shut out last year and scored 12 at Ohio State. They didn't give up close to 73 points last year, either (high of 48 vs. Troy). A great start from the Sooners, something we've seen before but not of this magnitude for quite a while, and it makes them the "one game" Big 12 favorite.
3. Alabama - beat Middle Tennessee State 56-7 (82.35)
   The Tide are ranked here about where most people have them—the top three. Beating MTSU badly just affirms that they are as good as we think. It also helps answer questions about the QB position, where new starter Jason Milroe went 13 of 18 for 194 yards and 3 TDs, and Notre Dame transfer got some time in as well (3 of 5 for 27 yards). The defense also did its usual fine job. Are they better than last year? Even basing it on just one game it's very close, but last year's projected score would have been 51-10. A touchdown and field goal here or there and that's within the margin of error for MTSU getting a bit worse, so we'll have to see. Basically Alabama did what they were supposed to do and that makes them a Playoff contender.
4. Tennessee - beat Virginia 49-13 (77.23)
   The Vols didn't miss a beat on offense without Hendon Hooker as Joe Milton passed for 201 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 2 more touchdowns. Tennessee got most of their yards on the ground (287 total) and the defense held Virginia under 200 total yards. We had Tennessee #5 pre-season so for me this is just a confirmation; for others who downgraded them (they were #12 in the AP) it might serve as a notice. We'll have to see if they follow through of course but for this one game, they're a Playoff contender this year, just like last year.
5. Oregon - beat Portland State 81-7 (76.92)
   Ok, I know that beating up on an FCS team doesn't impress most people. But scoring 81 points on any team is pretty amazing. And no, beating Portland State by 74 is not something "any team" could do. We don't know how much worse Portland State is than last year's team but this result shows that Oregon appears to be at least as good as last year's Ducks. Bo Nix was unstoppable, completing 23 of 27 for 287 yards and 3 TDs. The pass defense limited Portland State to 52 yards. We'll have to see how this holds up vs. FBS competition obviously but based on this one game Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12.
6. Michigan - beat East Carolina 30-3 (76.50)
   Another team expected to be in the top ten and this game is just a confirmation of that. The Pirates were an average team last year, with an average offense and an average defense, so to beat them 30-3 is pretty solid. JJ McCarthy was near-perfect, going 26 of 30 for 280 yards and 3 scores. They also answered a big question about how effective Blake Corum would be coming off injuries, as he averaged 7.3 yards per carry and had a 37 yard TD run. Jim Harbaugh wasn't there but the team did fine without him, and looks set for another Playoff run.
7. Georgia - beat Tennessee-Martin 48-7 (75.65)
8. Ohio State - won at Indiana 23-3 (75.04)
   At #7 and #8 are our top 2 pre-season teams, Georgia and Ohio State. This indicates a slight underperformance in week one; both teams looked worthy of the top ten but probably not of the top two. The defenses were great: while last year's Georgia might have gotten the shutout or given up a field goal, 7 points isn't bad. And holding Indiana to 3 points in Bloomington is outstanding and indicates that the Buckeye defense has made big strides from last year's #18 rating. But the offenses had trouble early. Georgia scored just 17 in the first half, Ohio State only 10. Georgia picked up the slack a bit but Ohio State's low total was about half of what they would have scored last year with CJ Stroud at the helm (they beat Indiana 56-14 last year in Columbus). Kyle McCord did ok, completing 20 of 33 passes for 238 yards, but threw no TD passes and was intercepted once. He's the big question mark as to whether Ohio State is a top ten team, or a top four team headed back to the Playoff. Georgia also had a QB change and Carson Beck did a fair job replacing Spencer Bennett, going 21 of 31 for 294 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for another. But the early offensive struggles against an FCS team were troublesome, and contributed to their game rating putting them in the top ten—but far from #1 in the nation, which is where they want to be.
9. Washington - beat Boise State 56-19 (74.93)
   Are the Huskies deserving of their #10 pre-season ranking in the AP poll? If this game is the arbiter, then the answer is yes. After a slow start in the first quarter transfer QB Michael Penix exploded for 4 touchdowns in the 2nd quarter and Washington coasted from there. Penix finished with 490 passing yards and 5 TDs. The defense, last year's weakness, looked better too. All in all very solid.
10. Kansas State - beat SE Missouri State 45-0 (74.08)
    K-State showed they haven't fallen very far if at all from last year's squad—especially on defense—shutting out a strong Southeast Missouri team. The D was the main question for this team and they did well in their first assignment—particularly against the run, where they allowed just 6 yards. The passing defense is still a question as they allowed 221 yards, but overall a good start. 

Honorable mention: Notre Dame's 42-3 win over Navy from "week 0" would have put them at #10; their 56-3 win over Tennessee State only puts them at #22 for this week, though.

Now let's take a look at the biggest over-performing teams—the teams that surprised the most.

1. Oklahoma - beat Arkansas State 73-0 (+45.3)
   Yep, the Sooners win this one by shutting out the Red Wolves but mainly by running up 73 points, about 25 more than we thought they would. Maybe that's not impressive against a team with a defense as bad as Arkansas State, but the Red Wolf offense wasn't terrible last year and we expected about 20 points from them. That could be an indication that Oklahoma's defense—#57 last year—is a whole lot better, good news for the Sooners.
2. Colorado - won at TCU, 45-42 (+44.63)
   This was the big one, probably the most glaring overperformance since it was also an upset. No one really know what to expect from Colorado, and most had expected TCU wouldn't be as good as last year. But no matter what, this was a shock. Deion Sanders' son Shadeur passed for 510 yards and 5 touchdowns in a back-and-forth classic. Last year TCU won the game 38-13 at Colorado and that was an understatement for how far apart the teams were then. Where does this put Colorado, our #124 team last year, and #132 in our pre-season Playoff projections? In our Bayesian rating system, it probably moves them to around #105, since one game can't determine everything. Based on just this game, Colorado's potential is to be #52, but that assumes TCU has fallen equally as far as Colorado has risen, and there's every reason to believe the Buffs have changed a lot more. Based on TCU's quality last year, this win would make Colorado a top ten team. So there's your range for the Buffs: anywhere from #6 to #106. The first game didn't really clear anything up—it just made things even fuzzier by increasing Colorado's upside by about 50 rankings!
3. Mississippi - beat Mercer 73-7 (+43.21)
   The best performance of the week was the #3 over-performance
4. Texas State - won at Baylor 42-31 (+40.69)
   This was almost as big of an upset as Colorado beating TCU. In fact by the oddsmakers, it was actually bigger (27.5 to 20.5). The Bobcats were #122 and the Bears #28 in our pre-season rankings.
5. California - won at North Texas 58-21 (+34.50)
   We had Cal winning this game by about a field goal. Maybe 30-27. The defense did about as well as expected but the offense was incredible. Jaydn Ott rushed for 186 yards.
6. Jacksonville State - beat East Tennessee State 49-3 (+33.43)
   Moving up from the FCS is uncertain territory, but Jacksonville State was playing current FCS team East Tennessee State and were expected to win—but not 49-3! The Gamecocks already had a win under their belt (UTEP, 17-14) but this one was much more impressive. 
7. Central Florida - beat Kent State 56-6 (31.31)
   Like Boise State, UCF has joined the club of overperforming Group of Five teams. Now, however, the Knights are in the Big Twelve. How good will they be in their first Power Five season? If this game is any indication they'll do just fine. They greatly outperformed on both offense and defense.
8. Miami FL - beat Miami OH 38-3 (+23.74)
   Every year it's the same—are the Canes back? And sometimes it looks like they are, even 9 games into the season but they're not. So after just one game we aren't willing to say that they're back, but that they're probably a lot better than last year. Which was expected, but still puts them at #8. The Hurricanes showed equal improvement on offense and defense. 
9. Oregon - beat Portland State 81-7 (+23.48)
   The Ducks' top 5 performance is top ten in out-performance
10. Cincinnati - beat Eastern Kentucky 66-13 (+22.02)
    Another new Big Twelve team shows that they might cause trouble in that conference

The list of ten underperformers is largely the mirror of the above, but some teams struggled against FCS foes.

Worst under-performances:

1. Arkansas State - lost at Oklahoma 73-0 (-45.3)
2. TCU - lost to Colorado 45-42 (-44.63)
3. Baylor - lost to Texas State 42-31 (-40.69)
4. North Texas - lost at California 58-21 (-34.50)
5. Kent State - lost to UCF 56-6 (-31.31)
6. Marshall - beat Albany NY 21-17 (-29.56)
   Albany NY wasn't very good last year and Marshall should have blown them away. This is a bad sign for the Thundering Herd, particularly on offense where they should have approached 40 points. They got the win, though, so maybe they can chalk it up to experience.
7. San Diego State - beat Idaho State 36-28 (-27.18)
   The Aztecs barely beat FCS Idaho State, a 1-10 team last year that had a Division II level offense. This one shouldn't have been close, with a shutout a solid possibility. The defense lost some key players and might be worse than expected.
8. Ohio - beat Long Island 27-10 (-26.25)
   LIU is a really bad team and beating them 27-10 is a pretty poor performance for an Ohio team hoping to be a MAC contender. The Bobcat offense is the source of all the underperformance, and should have put up at least 50 against last year's #384(!) defense. Starting QB Kurtis Rourke was injured in last week's loss to San Diego State and it made a big difference. If he doesn't return look for Ohio's outlook to suffer.
9. Air Force - beat Robert Morris 42-7 (-24.97)
   Really, winning by 35 points and underperforming? Yes, by about 25 points. That's how bad Robert Morris is—or was, last year. The Colonials went 0-11 last year and had the #437 offense and #297 defense among all college teams. This one is a bit unfair, though: at home, Air Force is about 60 points better than Robert Morris but the projected score was around 47-0. Air Force can't hold Robert Morris to -13 points. Scheduling a team this bad means you will almost always underperform.
10.  Miami OH - lost at Miami FL 38-3 (-23.74)
    The Redhawks can hope the Hurricanes have improved as much as many people think, as opposed to a Redhawk decline.