2023 Week 5 Preview: no FCS, but many idle, and many mismatches

Week Five is upon us...and along with better games due to conference play, it's the debut of the dreaded "idle" opponent. Also known (after the fact) as DNP, 6 of our top 25 "Playoff Most Likely" teams have an open date this weekend, including two of the top three. Even those who play don't look to be in much trouble, as the entire top ten is favored by double digits. But there are some good games, even among the projected blowouts. 

Ohio State and Florida State don't play. Still, their odds will change based upon what other teams do, which will be interesting to see and analyze. It would be better if they played a game though. #2 Penn State plays at Northwestern and is a near 4-TD favorite, so they are more likely to ding their odds slightly. But a huge performance might put them past the Buckeyes for the #1 spot. Which hardly matters now since the teams play later in the year.

Georgia vs. Auburn is an interesting game because it will show what the Bulldogs do against an opponent with a pulse and on the road. The first four weeks have been underwhelming and that's why the Bulldogs are Playoff-borderline right now, leading a six-team logjam for that 4th spot. Georgia is a 2-touchdown favorite.

Another interesting game with a big spread is #5 USC at Colorado. Everything Colorado does is interesting this year and USC's defense might make it more interesting. They allowed 28 points by Arizona State which sets the stage for a potential shootout game. #6 Washington at Arizona has less fun potential, obviously but it will be good to get more data on the Huskies, who rank #1 in the inaugural unbiased FBS Overall Power Rating. 

Sportsratings Playoff Odds for 9/23 with 9/30 weekend opponent and line

Rank Team                   Conf  Rec  %Odds  This weekend • Line
  1. Ohio State             B10e  4-0   41.8  idle
  2. Penn State             B10e  4-0   41.4 @Nwestern      -27.0
  3. Florida St             ACC   4-0   36.4  idle
  4. Georgia                SECe  4-0   33.0 @Auburn        -14.5
  5. Southern Cal           P12   4-0   31.3 @Colorado      -21.5
  6. Washington             P12   4-0   30.6 @Arizona       -18.0
  7. Texas                  B12   4-0   30.1  #25 Kansas    -16.5
  8. Oklahoma               B12   4-0   28.7  Iowa State    -20.0
  9. Oregon                 P12   4-0   28.2  Stanford      -27.0
 10. Michigan               B10e  4-0   16.5 @Nebraska      -17.0
 11. Utah                   P12   4-0   12.2 @#13 Oregon St  +3.5
 12. Alabama                SECw  3-1   11.3 @Miss State    -14.5
 13. Oregon St              P12   3-1    9.5  #11 Utah       -3.5
 14. Mississippi            SECw  3-1    6.0  #18 LSU        +2.5
 15. Duke                   ACC   4-0    5.1  #16 Notre Dame +5.5
 16. Notre Dame             IND   4-1    4.8 @#15 Duke       -5.5
 17. Syracuse               ACC   4-0    4.7  Clemson        +7.0
 18. LSU                    SECw  3-1    4.5 @#14 Ole Miss   -2.5
 19. North Carolina         ACC   4-0    4.2  idle
 20. Washington St          P12   4-0    3.7  idle
 21. Louisville             ACC   4-0    3.2 @NC State       -3.0
 22. Tennessee              SECe  3-1    2.9  S Carolina    -12.5
 23. Kansas St              B12   3-1    2.4  idle
 24. UCLA                   P12   3-1    1.5  idle
 25. Kansas                 B12   4-0    0.8 @#7 Texas      +16.5

Texas hosts #25 Kansas; both teams are 4-0 but the Longhorns are big favorites. It's a big opportunity for the Jayhawks whose Odds% will soar (to 10% maybe? hard to say) if they win, and Texas' odds would probably fall to 10% if they lose. Fellow Big Twelve team Oklahoma hosts Iowa State, a disappointment so far this year. This looks like it could be a 45 point blowout but half the Sooners games have been 27-10-ish and that could happen here too. #9 Oregon hosts Stanford, an even worse mismatch on paper. Oregon and Oklahoma are #1 and #2 in our early, unbiased, All-Division Strength Power Rating.

And #10 Michigan is, like Georgia, struggling on offense, or at least struggling to put up the kind of gaudy numbers expected of them. The defense is killin' it, though, and given Nebraska's struggles it could be a shutout. Our power rating has it 21-0, Wolverines.

Now we get to the good stuff: #11 Utah at #13 Oregon State.The Utes have struggled a bit without Cam Rising at QB and their odds are barely higher than the Beavers' despite being undefeated. And Oregon State is the slight favorite, too. The Beavers need this game to remain alive in the Playoff race, obviously. It's hard enough for a 1-loss Pac-12 team to make the Playoff let alone 2-loss; though the conference is solid this season, 2-losses has never made the cut.

Alabama goes on the road vs. Mississippi State with their offense averaging 22 points over the last three games. They need to avoid their 2nd loss obviously, as do #14 Mississippi and #18 LSU who meet in Baton Rouge with the Tigers a slight favorite.

Duke and Syracuse will try to remain undefeated and stay tied at the top of the ACC but both have tough assignments. The #15 Blue Devils host Notre Dame and are a 5 1/2 point underdog, while Syracuse hosts Clemson and are a touchdown dog. Does the dream end here for both? These are some of the only undefeated  Cinderellas left in the country so let's root for them. They don't play each other so they'd both be 12-0 in the ACC title game! Add 4-0 Louisville to that list, too, though they play Duke so they can't all be 12-0. Note that Miami could be 12-0 too, which seems like a big flaw in the no-division system, if you can have three 12-0 teams somehow and one is left out of the conference title game. I guess they're just assuming the tiny odds of that occurring means they don't have to worry about it.

Incidentally Miami, #26 in Playoff Odds, will remain undefeated this weekend as they also face the dreaded "idle".