Hard to believe 1/3 of the season is already over, but most of the big games remain as most Playoff candidates have played only 1 or 2 Power Five schools so far. Week 4 was a big step forward with very few FCS opponents, and the start of conference play for most of the big teams.
Ranking Curr | Projected | Playoff | Bowl LW 9/23 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 3 1. Ohio State B10e 4-0 13-0 11.3-1.7 41.8 +7.9 99.9 +0.6 2 2. Penn State B10e 4-0 11-1 10.8-1.2 41.4 +7.3 99.9 +0.1 4 3. Florida St ACC 4-0 13-0 11.4-1.6 36.4 +3.2 99.9 0.0 5 4. Georgia SECe 4-0 13-0 11.1-1.9 33.0 +4.0 99.7 -0.2 1 5. Southern Cal P12 4-0 12-1 10.3-2.7 31.3 -7.7 99.5 +0.2
At the top of the charts are Ohio State and Penn State, both from the Big Ten East. Usually this situation—two conference teams at the top—means that one or the other will get a bid, especially when they're from the same division. Only one can make it to the Big Ten title game but both look good in terms of beating Michigan. That could mean that the Big Ten East once again gets two teams in the Playoff. Ohio State's nail-biter win over Notre Dame helped their cause a lot, and Penn State's 31-0 blanking of Iowa increased their stock too. Florida State outlasted Clemson in overtime which is a great win to get behind them but their penchant for ultra-close games means they gain only marginally in Playoff Odds. And Georgia slips into the final spot at #4, back after beating UAB 49-21, but once again their performance wasn't dominant enough to move the needle very much. It was USC's tepid showing against Arizona State (a 42-28 win) that cleared a spot for the Bulldogs, as the Trojans dropped almost 8% in Playoff Odds.
LW 9/23 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 6 6. Washington P12 4-0 10-2 9.7-2.3 30.6 +3.4 99.5 +1.3 9 7. Texas B12 4-0 12-1 10.7-2.3 30.1 +9.5 99.7 +1.6 8 8. Oklahoma B12 4-0 12-1 10.9-2.1 28.7 +1.6 99.9 +1.2 7 9. Oregon P12 4-0 11-2 10.2-2.8 28.2 +1.1 99.7 +1.0 12 10. Michigan B10e 4-0 10-2 9.8-2.2 16.5 +2.5 99.8 0.0
USC is the top team in the Pac-12 but there are a lot of good teams behind them, case in point Washington who racked up 59 points on California, and Oregon who crushed Colorado 42-6. Both had high Playoff Odds already and the wins didn't change a lot, in fact Oregon slipped a few spots due to the Big Twelve's Texas and Oklahoma surging. Especially the Longhorns who dominated Baylor 38-6 and are also seeing their stock rise due to their opponents' wins (they are #1 in Success this week). Texas gains almost 10 percentage points this week. Michigan gains after beating Rutgers but as noted, they are starting to look like the odd man out in the Big Ten East.
LW 9/23 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 14 11. Utah P12 4-0 8-4 8.8-3.2 12.2 +2.1 99.6 +2.6 18 12. Alabama SECw 3-1 11-2 9.6-3.4 11.3 +5.5 98.4 +3.6 10 13. Oregon St P12 3-1 10-2 8.6-3.4 9.5 -9.6 97.4 +0.1 11 14. Mississippi SECw 3-1 10-2 8.9-3.1 6.0 -9.2 98.9 +0.5
A big part of Texas' gain is Alabama's 24-10 win over Mississippi, which added 5.5% to the Tide, making them the 1-loss team with the highest Playoff Odds (11.3%). A loss hurts more than a win helps, which is why Ole Miss dropped from 15.2% to 6.0% odds. A loss to a team in your own conference division is the worst, as it blocks you from conference title game contention. Alabama's loss—to Texas—leaves their path clear to the SEC title and with it, the Playoff. Two more Pac-12 teams show up here: Utah, who beat UCLA, and Oregon State, who lost to Washington State. They essentially switch positions with Utah now in front, but the Utes have a lot of close games coming up where they aren't the favorite (note their 8-4 straight-up projection).
LW 9/23 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 16 15. Duke ACC 4-0 8-4 8.8-3.2 5.1 -1.9 97.1 +3.2 13 16. Notre Dame IND 4-1 10-2 8.6-3.4 4.8 -8.4 97.9 +0.5 15 17. Syracuse ACC 4-0 10-2 9.4-2.6 4.7 -2.5 99.2 +1.1 17 18. LSU SECw 3-1 9-3 8.6-3.4 4.5 -1.6 96.5 +1.5 20 19. North Carolina ACC 4-0 11-1 9.2-2.8 4.2 +0.3 98.4 +4.4 24 20. Washington St P12 4-0 9-3 8.5-3.5 3.7 +1.3 97.5 +8.3 23 21. Louisville ACC 4-0 11-2 9.5-3.5 3.2 +0.2 98.7 +3.0
The ACC beyond Florida State is pretty fragmented, and now that Clemson is largely out of the picture there are many teams challenging the Seminoles. Duke and Syracuse both moved to 4-0 this week but lose some ground in terms of odds (shooting to the top four and being ranked #15 means your odds should decrease each week). North Carolina and Louisville also are 4-0 after winning conference games and both manage a meager increase. Things won't really change until they start playing each other. Honorary ACC team Notre Dame suffered a big drop, as will happen with your first loss. They lose about 2/3 of their odds and with no conference championship possible, the Irish will be behind any 12-1 Power Five conference champ as well as any 13-0 team obviously.
LSU's tight win over Arkansas didn't improve the Tigers' outlook, while Washington State's win over Oregon State helped but the Cougars are expected to go 9-3 or 8-4, which won't get them too close. They move up to 3.7% odds.
LW 9/23 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 25 22. Tennessee SECe 3-1 9-3 8.7-3.3 2.9 +1.2 98.2 +2.6 28 23. Kansas St B12 3-1 10-2 8.9-3.1 2.4 +1.4 97.2 +4.0 19 24. UCLA P12 3-1 9-3 8.1-3.9 1.5 -2.5 95.7 +2.4 31 25. Kansas B12 4-0 7-5 7.4-4.6 0.8 +0.2 84.1 +10.6
Tennessee and Kansas State rebounded from bad losses last week, with the Vols crushing UTSA 45-14 and K-State beating UCF 44-31. Both add a small amount to their odds but they'll need to win their big games—and probably need to win out, as no 2-loss team has every made the Playoff. That's why UCLA drops from 4% odds to 1.5%—a loss means you have no more leeway. Kansas moves up mainly because they are still undefeated, while other teams around them drop like flies. They still have less than a 1% chance to make the Playoff but unlike the other teams in this group the Jayhawks control their own destiny.
LW 9/23 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 27 26. Miami FL ACC 4-0 8-4 8.1-3.9 0.7 -0.4 92.7 +5.1 32 28. Fresno St MTN 4-0 13-0 10.4-2.6 0.6 +0.2 99.7 +1.4 33 29. Maryland B10e 4-0 9-3 7.9-4.1 0.6 +0.3 91.1 +16.8 37 30. Wisconsin B10w 3-1 10-3 8.2-4.8 0.4 +0.2 92.6 +14.2 26 34. Clemson ACC 2-2 8-4 7.0-5.0 0.2 -1.5 79.0 +1.5
Some other teams outside the "top 25" include Fresno State, the highest-odds Group of Five team. Now favored in every Mountain West game, the Bulldogs crushed Kent State but face long odds even if they do manage to go 13-0 as their projected SOS is around #119 of 133 teams.
Two Big Ten teams won big and at least made big gains in their bowl game odds. Maryland crushed hapless Michigan State 31-9 and Wisconsin beat Purdue 38-17. And just by being in the Big Ten and being pretty good, they have a prayer for the Playoff yet.
Meanwhile Miami, despite a 41-7 win at Temple, falls from 1.1% odds to 0.7% odds. I can't really explain it except that the 'Canes are still expected to go about 8-4, and it's a long road from 8-4 to the Playoff. Their odds will only really improve with wins in the games they're expected to lose—UNC, Clemson, FSU, and Louisville. Speaking of Clemson, they still show a meager chance—0.2%—to make the Playoff despite their two losses.
LW 9/23 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 50 40. Kentucky SECe 4-0 5-7 6.4-5.6 0.1 +0.1 67.2 +8.5 34 48. Wake Forest ACC 3-1 6-6 5.7-6.3 <0.1 -0.3 55.2 -20.0 63 49. South Carolina SECe 2-2 7-5 6.4-5.6 <0.1 0.0 69.2 +17.7 41 64. Cincinnati B12 2-2 8-4 6.9-5.1 0.0 -0.1 72.9 -3.8 58 78. Colorado P12 3-1 5-7 5.0-7.0 0.0 0.0 34.2 -2.4
Kentucky rises from the ashes, the only team to go from near-zero to actual 0.1% odds this week. The Wildcats beat Vandy 45-28 which somehow brought them back above water. More likely it was their 4-0 record, which means they have a theoretical chance of running the table still. Conversely, Cincinnati is the only team to go from detectable odds to 0.0 this week, with the Bearcats loss to Oklahoma their 2nd of the year, likely putting them in too big of a hole to get out of.
South Carolina still registers at well under 1 in 1000 odds despite having two losses, but the Gamecocks' win over Mississippi State is more important for their bowl odds which jumped from about 50/50 to almost 70%. Going the other direction was Wake Forest, whose loss to Georgia Tech not only effectively blanked their Playoff odds but dropped their bowl odds from 75% to 55%.
And of course any run-down has to include Colorado. The Buffaloes never got to a position where they had even 0.1% odds in our system, but you'd think that a 42-6 loss would sink their bowl game hopes a bit more than 2.4%. In this case though the Buffs bowl odds were still catching up with their starting point, which was last year's team. And this year's team is very different. So as new information is digested week by week Colorado's new picture is starting to emerge, and even a 42-6 loss doesn't really offset that. They were projected to be 1-11 at the beginning of the year and are now seen to be 5-7 with a 1 in 3 chance of making a bowl game. Is that still too low? Next week's game vs. USC could radically increase that number, even if the game is a close loss.
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