Week 3's set of upsets and near-upsets didn't quite have the effect I thought it might, as Florida State's 31-29 squeaker over Boston College had less impact than Georgia's unconvincing 24-14 home win over South Carolina. The Seminoles remained in the top four while Georgia dropped to #5 in our Playoff Projections.
USC did the smart thing—took an idle week—and despite this, rocketed to #1, going from 29% to 39% in Playoff Odds. This was a consolidation of the Pac-12 effect—the conference has a great record against rival conferences so far—and the fact that some of their future foes became easier to beat. Or a combination of the two: Washington and Oregon jumped to #6 and #7 respectively and became more valuable as potential wins, while Oregon State and Utah fell to #10 and #14. All of this somehow worked out very much in USC's favor, although in game-by-game odds Oregon and Oregon State emerge from a 3-way tie in the Pac-12 to make the conference title game.
Penn State soared to #2 as their odds of beating Michigan increased, making them #3 Ohio State's chief rival to win the coveted Big Ten East title. The Nittany Lions drubbed Illinois 30-13 while the Wolverines looked tepid again, winning 31-6 over lowly Bowling Green. Ohio State still wins their matchup most of the time, but the Buckeyes play at Michigan and end up neck-and-neck overall with Penn State. Both teams stand at 34% now, as Michigan falls from 24% to 14% and sits at #12, down 5 spots.
Florida State is the only top 4 team that didn't see a healthy increase in Playoff Odds, but they managed a slight rise from 32.7% to 33.2% after surviving a comeback attempt at Boston College. I figured that this would cause FSU to plunge but I think that another game—LSU's huge win over Mississippi State—boosted the Seminoles enough to offset this near-disaster. Sometimes you can't tell what's going to happen until you run the numbers.
Georgia wasn't as fortunate, as last week's #1 fell to #5, dropping from 35% to a still-healthy 29%. They're still favored in every game and if they do go 13-0 they'll obviously be a Playoff team, but their confidence for winning out dropped quite a bit as they were unimpressive again against South Carolina.
Ranking Curr | Projected | Playoff | Bowl LW 9/16 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 3 1. Southern Cal P12 3-0 11-1 10.0-2.0 39.0 +10.0 99.3 +0.4 6 2. Penn State B10e 3-0 11-1 10.5-1.5 34.1 +9.9 99.8 +0.6 4 3. Ohio State B10e 3-0 13-0 10.9-2.1 33.9 +8.1 99.3 +2.0 2 4. Florida St ACC 3-0 13-0 11.0-2.0 33.2 +0.5 99.9 +0.5 1 5. Georgia SECe 3-0 13-0 11.0-2.0 29.0 -6.2 99.9 +0.1 10 6. Washington P12 3-0 10-2 9.5-2.5 27.2 +10.1 98.2 +5.6 9 7. Oregon P12 3-0 12-1 10.2-2.8 27.1 +3.9 98.7 +1.0 16 8. Oklahoma B12 3-0 12-1 10.9-2.1 27.1 +15.8 98.7 +5.2 5 9. Texas B12 3-0 12-1 10.3-2.7 20.6 -4.8 98.1 +1.4 8 10. Oregon St P12 3-0 11-2 9.6-3.4 19.1 -4.4 97.3 0.0 17 11. Mississippi SECw 3-0 10-2 9.4-2.6 15.2 +4.8 98.4 +2.7 7 12. Michigan B10e 3-0 10-2 9.6-2.4 14.0 -10.1 99.8 +0.7 12 13. Notre Dame IND 4-0 10-2 9.0-3.0 13.2 -2.0 97.4 +1.4 11 14. Utah P12 3-0 8-4 8.3-3.7 10.1 -6.9 97.0 +2.4 24 15. Syracuse ACC 3-0 11-1 9.4-2.6 7.2 +4.4 98.1 +8.6 20 16. Duke ACC 3-0 8-4 8.8-3.2 7.0 +2.9 93.9 +7.1 28 17. LSU SECw 2-1 9-3 8.5-3.5 6.1 +4.2 95.0 +14.9 14 18. Alabama SECw 2-1 11-2 8.7-4.3 5.8 -6.8 94.8 -2.2 25 19. UCLA P12 3-0 9-3 8.3-3.7 4.0 +1.3 93.3 +6.8 29 20. North Carolina ACC 3-0 10-2 8.7-3.3 3.9 +2.2 94.0 +11.2 30 21. Auburn SECw 3-0 8-4 8.0-4.0 3.1 +1.6 85.7 +5.5 21 22. Central Florida B12 3-0 10-2 8.7-3.3 3.0 -0.7 93.6 +4.9 22 23. Louisville ACC 3-0 11-2 9.2-3.8 3.0 -0.4 95.7 +4.2 23 24. Washington St P12 3-0 7-5 7.8-4.2 2.4 -0.9 89.2 +0.4 15 25. Tennessee SECe 2-1 9-3 8.4-3.6 1.7 -10.8 95.6 -3.0
Pac-12 a mixed bag this week
We noted Washington and Oregon's rise. The Huskies demolished Michigan State 41-7, though that may be unrepresentative in the long run as they probably caught the Spartans at a low point due to the coaching situation. The Ducks beat Hawaii 55-10 which was pretty much exactly as expected. But Oregon State's 26-9 win over San Diego State fell short, as did Utah's 31-7 win over FCS Weber State (though not by much as Weber is a good team). When you're projected to be in the top 10 there are high standards early on, as it affects projected future performance and there are more games in the future than the past. Washington State also slid a bit after beating Northern Colorado 64-21, but they fell only from #23 to #24. But UCLA rose to #19 after punishing NC Central 59-7.
Oklahoma, Mississippi continue to thrive, Bama and Tennessee sink
Week one's star teams kept overperforming in week 3. Oklahoma beat Tulsa 66-17 on the road while Ole Miss beat Georgia Tech 48-23. The latter was a bit of an underperformance but with Alabama's slump the Rebels have a bigger chance of making the SEC title game, and they jumped from #17 to #11. The Tide's fall also affected Texas, as the Longhorn's signature win is diminished in value. But their main problem was only beating Wyoming 31-10 at home (the game was tied until the 4th quarter). That allowed Oklahoma to become the new #1 in the BIg Twelve, soaring to 27% with Texas around 21% now.
Speaking of Alabama, the Tide fell further, from #14 to #18 after another dull win, 17-3 at South Florida. They're now at just 6% chance to make the Playoff, though a lot can change based on getting their quarterback situation settled. Early games—even those sort of treated as exhibition games to test out players—have a big effect on the projection before a true power rating can be determined. They've got a loss in the bank and therefore don't control their destiny, but a 12-1 SEC champ almost always gets in.
The SEC team that had the worst weekend was Tennessee. The Vols had already plummeted after a poor showing vs. Austin Peay, but that could have been due to looking ahead to Florida. Nope, it seems it reflected problems with the Tennessee team as Florida won convincingly, 29-16. Tennessee dropped to #25 and has just a 1.7% chance to make the Playoff now. LSU, however, turned their season around with a stunning 41-14 road victory at Mississippi State. It puts the Bayou Bengals in the same boat as Alabama—a non-conference loss, not controlling destiny per se, but still with hope for an SEC title and Playoff berth at 12-1. Auburn is there too, without the loss but also without the rosy future outlook (the Tigers are expected to lose 4 games).
ACC hopefuls ding the Big Ten
Duke clobbered Northwestern 38-14 and moved up to #16 with 7.0% Playoff Odds. But another ACC surprise is Syracuse, whose early games overperformance continued with a 35-20 win at Purdue. The Orange are neck-and-neck with the Blue Devils for the 2nd best ACC team. And North Carolina rebounded with a solid 31-13 win over Minnesota. Finally, #23 Louisville held off Indiana in Indianapolis, 21-14, giving the ACC four wins over the Big Ten just this week. That helps every ACC team and hurts every Big Ten squad, even if just a small amount. The Big Ten won two others contests (Rutgers beat Virginia Tech and Maryland beat Virginia) but the big games were won by the four 3-0 ACC hopefuls.
Interesting moves outside the top 25
Ranking Curr | Projected | Playoff | Bowl LW 9/16 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 46 27. Miami FL ACC 3-0 8-4 8.1-3.9 1.1 +0.9 87.6 +6.3 47 29. Florida SECe 2-1 8-4 7.2-4.8 0.9 +0.7 78.0 +20.2 52 38. Texas A&M SECw 2-1 6-6 6.2-5.8 0.2 +0.1 56.6 +11.8
Miami continues to look like the real deal 3 games in; it helps that Texas A&M is doing well, too, so that win is more impressive. Florida's win over Tennessee makes their turnaround seem convincing, even with the loss to Utah. The opportunity for an SEC title is enough to give even fringe contenders like Florida and A&M a small chance at the Playoff.
59 39. Missouri SECe 3-0 6-6 6.6-5.4 0.2 +0.2 66.1 +20.3 68 44. Rutgers B10e 3-0 5-7 6.6-5.4 0.1 +0.1 65.8 +21.5 61 46. Brigham Young B12 3-0 4-8 6.3-5.7 0.1 +0.1 57.5 +27.3
Back from the dead: Missouri's upset of K-State, Rutgers solid win over Virginia Tech, and BYU's upset of Arkansas give all these teams a new lease on life. Up from zero or near-zero, all three Power Five teams are 3-0 and have at least 1 in 1000 odds of making the Playoff. But their realistic goal is bowl eligibility, and all three go from less than 50% to >50%
13 28. Kansas St B12 2-1 10-2 8.3-3.7 1.0 -13.2 93.2 -2.9 18 36. Mississippi St SECw 2-1 7-5 6.9-5.1 0.3 -4.7 79.6 -13.0 19 41. Cincinnati B12 2-1 8-4 7.2-4.8 0.1 -4.1 76.7 -14.4 33 53. Arkansas SECw 2-1 4-8 5.7-6.3 <0.1 -0.9 56.0 -19.2
These four teams crashed due to upsets or bad losses. Kansas State fell from 14% Playoff odds to around 1% with the Missouri loss. Mississippi State was a tossup at home vs. LSU but lost 41-14 and their 5% Playoff odds fall to 0.3%. Cincinnati lost to Miami Ohio and the algorithm was not forgiving as they fall to 0.1% Playoff odds. And Arkansas fell to BYU at home, which not only drops them to practical zero for the Playoff but puts bowl eligibility in danger.
36 55. Michigan St B10e 2-1 5-7 5.4-6.6 <0.1 -0.4 49.1 -9.0 35 56. Minnesota B10w 2-1 5-7 5.8-6.2 <0.1 -0.6 55.6 -15.6 37 66. Illinois B10w 1-2 8-4 6.5-5.5 <0.1 -0.4 73.8 -2.1
Three Big Ten teams suffered devastating losses. Michigan State's huge loss to Washington was basically a Playoff dealbreaker and makes their bowl future 50/50, which is appropriate because the season could go either way right now: recovery or downward spiral. Minnesota fell big to North Carolina which made them look like an average team. Illinois looked the same vs. Penn State, though interestingly at 1-2 Illinois has much better bowl odds than the other two 2-1 teams.
69 58. Colorado P12 3-0 5-7 5.4-6.6 <0.1 0.0 36.6 +6.2
The Buffaloes continued to move up in ranking despite struggling mightily at home vs. Colorado State. At 3-0, their bowl odds have only reached about 37%, which underscores that they are a still-unknown quantity. Most teams projected at 5.4 wins would be around 48%, but any slippage in rating and their tough schedule is unforgiving.
84 65. South Alabama SUNw 2-1 9-3 8.2-3.8 <0.1 0.0 90.2 +17.9 34 69. Oklahoma St B12 2-1 3-9 4.7-7.3 <0.1 -0.6 34.9 -29.3 91 74. Ohio U. MACe 3-1 10-3 8.4-4.6 0.0 0.0 88.3 +13.0 48 90. Iowa St B12 1-2 2-10 4.2-7.8 0.0 -0.1 30.3 -16.3
Winners and Losers: South Alabama won at Oklahoma State 33-7 and you see the results here. The Jaguars are expected to breeze through most of their remaining schedule while the Cowboys will fight for wins and a bowl berth is unlikely now. Also, Ohio upset Iowa State 10-7 and the Cyclones' 2nd loss—to a MAC team, no less—rules them out of Playoff contention.
117 88. Bowling Green MACe 1-2 7-5 5.7-6.3 0.0 0.0 48.0 +11.3 122 100. Boston College ACC 1-2 4-8 4.5-7.5 0.0 0.0 27.0 +9.4
Losing but moving up: Bowling Green did well enough against Michigan to improve their outlook despite the loss and now the Falcons are almost 50/50 for bowl eligibility even after a 1-2 start. Boston College has a much tougher schedule but they're almost at 1 in 4 after giving Florida State a huge scare.
66 101. Baylor B12 1-2 3-9 3.9-8.1 0.0 0.0 19.0 -11.0 63 110. Stanford P12 1-2 1-11 2.8-9.2 0.0 0.0 7.9 -12.4 77 132. Arizona St* P12 1-2 1-11 1.9-10.1 0.0 0.0 1.7 -9.1
The last 3 teams here are 1-2 Power Five teams. Baylor got their first win—30-7 over FCS Long Island—but it didn't impress the algorithm as it caused the Bears' bowl odds to plummet. Stanford fell to Sacramento State, one of the best teams in the FCS, and the Cardinal's 2nd loss tanked their bowl odds, too. And Arizona State has a self-imposed bowl ban but it hardly matters as they only have about a 2% chance to reach six wins. Their home, shutout loss to Fresno State (29-0) was the catalyst for the further downgrade.
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