Week two had its big moments and they're reflected in our updated Playoff Projection.
The top four is no longer an exclusive SEC/Big Ten show, as Florida State (ACC) and USC (Pac-12) jumped into the #2 and #3 spots. The Seminoles followed up their big win over LSU with a 66-13 lambasting of Southern Miss, while the Trojans beat up on Stanford 56-10.
Both teams gained double-digits in Playoff odds, aided of course by Texas' 34-24 upset of former #3 Alabama. That game sent the Tide spiralling down to #14, losing 20% of their Playoff bounty while Texas' odds roughly doubled, putting the Longhorns at #5, just outside the 4-team cutoff.
Just inside the cutoff is former #2 Ohio State, down over 10%. The Buckeyes didn't lose but they had a 2nd uninspiring week with a 35-7 win over FCS team Youngstown State. Coupled with a so-so 35-7 win over UNLV by former #4 Michigan—who falls to #7—that made Penn State one of the big winners of the week. The Nittany Lions trounced Delaware 63-7 and it's now looking like the top three teams in the Big Ten East will beat each other, each going 1-1. The tiebreaker in that case probably goes to Ohio State, which is about the only reason they remain at #4. Penn State slides up to #6, one spot ahead of Michigan.
What about #1 Georgia? They're still #1. But their once-hefty lead is almost gone, and for a 2nd week (like Ohio State) they underperformed their pre-season ranking. Though beating Ball State 45-3 is good, it doesn't measure up to last year's Georgia squad. The Bulldogs remain at the top for now, and we'll await them playing a good team to get any legit results to go by.
SportsRatings Playoff Final Standings Projection - post-week 2 (9/10):
Ranking Curr | Projected | Playoff | Bowl LW 9/10 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 1 1. Georgia SECe 2-0 13-0 11.2-1.8 35.2 -8.6 99.8 +0.1 7 2. Florida St ACC 2-0 13-0 11.2-1.8 32.7 +14.8 99.4 +2.3 8 3. Southern Cal P12 3-0 12-1 10.1-2.9 29.0 +11.4 98.9 +4.1 2 4. Ohio State B10e 2-0 12-1 10.4-2.6 25.8 -12.6 97.3 -1.0 14 5. Texas B12 2-0 13-0 10.3-2.7 25.4 +13.4 96.7 +6.9 9 6. Penn State B10e 2-0 11-1 10.1-1.9 24.2 +6.7 99.2 +1.5 4 7. Michigan B10e 2-0 11-1 10.0-2.0 24.1 -7.5 99.1 -0.1 12 8. Oregon St P12 2-0 11-2 10.0-3.0 23.5 +9.8 97.3 +4.5 10 9. Oregon P12 2-0 10-2 9.4-2.6 23.2 +9.0 97.7 +4.0 11 10. Washington P12 2-0 10-2 8.7-3.3 17.1 +3.3 92.6 +4.9 6 11. Utah P12 2-0 9-3 8.9-3.1 17.0 -1.9 94.6 +0.3 13 12. Notre Dame IND 3-0 10-2 9.0-3.0 15.2 +3.1 96.0 +8.5 15 13. Kansas St B12 2-0 11-1 9.3-2.7 14.2 +3.2 96.1 +6.4 3 14. Alabama SECw 1-1 11-2 9.4-3.6 12.6 -20.4 97.0 -0.9 5 15. Tennessee SECe 2-0 10-2 9.7-2.3 12.5 -12.2 98.6 -0.5 19 16. Oklahoma B12 2-0 11-2 9.3-3.7 11.3 +6.5 93.5 +11.0 22 17. Mississippi SECw 2-0 9-3 8.9-3.1 10.4 +6.3 95.7 +15.2 16 18. Mississippi St SECw 2-0 11-1 8.4-3.6 5.0 -1.9 92.6 +6.6 37 19. Cincinnati B12 2-0 11-1 8.5-3.5 4.2 +3.0 91.1 +19.9 21 20. Duke ACC 2-0 9-3 8.1-3.9 4.1 0.0 86.8 +3.3 34 21. Central Florida B12 2-0 9-3 8.2-3.8 3.7 +2.4 88.7 +16.0 17 22. Louisville ACC 2-0 10-3 8.9-4.1 3.4 -2.2 91.5 -0.4 27 23. Washington St P12 2-0 8-4 7.8-4.2 3.3 +0.8 88.8 +8.6 36 24. Syracuse ACC 2-0 9-3 8.4-3.6 2.8 +1.5 89.5 +11.8 28 25. UCLA P12 2-0 9-3 7.7-4.3 2.7 +0.2 86.5 +3.2
The Pac-12 Lives On
The Pac-12 continued to storm the top of the charts. In addition to USC, Oregon State, Oregon, Washington, and Utah crowded the top 11. The Beavers crushed UC-Davis 55-7 and added almost 10% to their odds. Oregon survived an upset at Texas Tech and increased their odds by 9%. Washington beat Tulsa 43-10 and moved into the top 10. Utah was the only team to backtrack, falling from #6 to #11 as they barely escaped Baylor intact, 20-13.
The conference's record is so good right now—only 3 non-conference losses—that for the first time in years things bode well for the Pac-12 to put a team in the Playoff, and two teams isn't completely out of the question as in previous years. It could have been even better, as Mississippi State needed overtime to beat Arizona, and Auburn edged Cal just 14-10. And we haven't even gotten to Colorado, who is still underrated by our Bayesian system.
If that's not enough, both Washington State (#23) and UCLA (#25) joined the top 25 this week. The Pac-12 has a ton of options to make the top four, and unless they're tripped up by parity—which happened last year—they should have a rep in the Playoff.
SEC, Big Twelve hurting
Outside the top 5, Big Twelve and SEC teams are hard to find.
Kansas State (#12) is the top Big Twelve team outside of Texas, with #16 Oklahoma next. Both had solid weekends, beating Troy and SMU convincingly. They also added #19 Cincinnati (who won at Pitt, 27-20) and #21 UCF (won at Boise State, 18-16) to the mix. But right now none look elite in the conference except the Longhorns.
We've noted how Alabama fell from #3 to #14, dropping from a solid 33% to just a 12.6% at the Playoff. But look at what happened to Tennessee! The Volunteers dropped from #5 to #15, cutting their 24% odds in half—and they didn't even lose! That's what beating Austin Peay 30-13 will do. This should have been a 49-0 game, and it was almost worse: Austin Peay failed to convert on 4th-and-goal from the 1 with a minute to go. Clearly Tennessee has some things to work out, but at least they didn't take a loss which might have put their odds near zero.
Mississippi had a better week, beating a tough Tulane team on the road 37-20. The Green Wave were without star QB Michael Pratt and it showed on offense, and the Rebels got a big win. Without a win over Ole Miss on their résumé there isn't much hope for Tulane, who fell from 5.4% odds to 0.1%. Mississippi's odds jumped from 6.3 to 10.4%. Mississippi State's overtime win vs. Arizona at home didn't impress our algorithm and their odds slid to about 5%. LSU also slipped out of the top 25 despite a 72-10 win over Grambling.
ACC has few big teams left but Notre Dame is the key
Florida State is making waves for the ACC which is good because no one else really is. At #20 Duke is the next-highest ranked team, and the Blue Devils treaded water beating Lafayette 42-7. #22 Louisville beat Murray State 56-0 but are no longer favored at Pitt or vs. Notre Dame and slip accordingly. Speaking of Notre Dame, the part-time ACC team not only plays Louisville but also Duke and Clemson, making the Irish a key to many ACC teams' success this year. They move up to #12 after dashing the hopes of NC State, yet another ACC opponent, 45-24.
Syracuse doesn't face the Irish this year and the Orange move up to #24 this week after beating Western Michigan 48-7. They replace Clemson who drops a few spots to #27. The Tigers overcame a rough start (24-17 halftime lead) to crush Charleston Southern 66-17 which is about what was expected in the end. And North Carolina's double overtime win (once again) over Appalachian State didn't put them in the top 25.
Big Moves outside the top 25
Ranking Curr | Projected | Playoff | Bowl LW 9/10 Team Conf Rec | W-L W-L(Cume)|%Odds %Chg |%Odds %Chg 40 26. Kansas B12 2-0 6-6 7.1-4.9 2.0 +1.0 75.8 +13.2 24 35. Minnesota B10w 2-0 8-4 6.8-5.2 0.6 -2.5 71.2 -8.6 20 37. Illinois B10w 1-1 8-4 7.0-5.0 0.4 -3.9 75.9 -5.6 29 38. Pittsburgh ACC 1-1 6-6 5.8-6.2 0.3 -1.9 54.0 -13.7 26 40. Wisconsin B10w 1-1 8-4 7.0-5.0 0.3 -2.3 73.5 -3.2 35 41. Maryland B10e 2-0 7-5 6.6-5.4 0.2 -1.1 67.2 -9.2 18 49. Tulane AAC 1-1 12-1 9.7-3.3 0.1 -5.3 94.9 +0.8 32 50. North Carolina St ACC 1-1 7-5 6.4-5.6 0.1 -1.5 62.6 -13.0
Kansas is quietly having another great year—overshadowed by Colorado, obviously—and the Jayhawks are near the top 25. They've got a tough schedule to deal with so they probably finish 6-6 or 7-5 and probably have only about a 2% chance at the Playoff, but after beating Illinois they're looking good for a bowl. The Illini drop from #20 to #37 and their odds take a resounding hit.
Several other Big Ten teams bit the dust, too. Minnesota improved to 2-0 but the offense struggled past Eastern Michigan, 25-6; WIsconsin was upset (per the oddsmakers) by Washington State and fell to 0.3% odds; and Maryland trailed Charlotte in the 4th quarter before prevailing 38-20.
Other teams of interest - are Miami, Colorado back?
70 46. Miami FL ACC 2-0 7-5 7.4-4.6 0.2 +0.2 81.3 +27.3 122 69. Colorado P12 2-0 3-9 4.8-7.2 <0.1 0.0 30.4 +19.7 52 64. Texas Tech B12 0-2 6-6 5.3-6.7 <0.1 -0.4 47.3 -10.7 63 66. Baylor B12 0-2 4-8 4.4-7.6 <0.1 -0.1 30.0 -13.2 64 82. Boise St MTN 0-2 8-5 6.9-6.1 <0.1 -0.1 67.7 -4.7 110 111. Louisiana-Monroe SUNw 2-0 3-9 4.9-7.1 0.0 0.0 33.4 +0.7
Texas is certainly back after beating Alabama; is Miami back after beating Texas A&M? Not yet. Though the Hurricanes show their first measureable Playoff odds at 0.2%, the algorithm right now treats it as a win over a bad A&M team. Colorado trounced Nebraska 36-14 after their opening win over TCU, but the algorithm isn't going to re-evaluate teams that fast. Starting at #132, the Buffaloes jumped to #122 and now #69, but still show only 30% odds of bowl-eligibilty. For both these teams, it's going to take a few weeks to get the power ratings on track to the new reality—whatever that proves to be.
Texas Tech, Baylor, and Boise State all lost close games to go 0-2, yet they still have a glimmer of a hope. Their odds lie somewhere less than 1 in 2,000, since no team with 2 losses has ever made the Playoff. Boise State is the true long shot, as no 1-loss Group of Five team has ever made it. The Monte Carlo run that put an 11-2 Boise State into the Playoff must have rolled up a lot of carnage among the actual contenders, is all I can say.
And finally Louisiana-Monroe is the only 2-0 team that is given a 0.0% shot at the Playoff. At #117 in Strength, it would take a miracle for the Warhawks to 13-0 and a long shot for them to make the Playoff even then. That rounds down to 0.0%.
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