Who did better in Week Zero: USC or Notre Dame?

Only two "big" teams played on Saturday the 26th, or "Week 0" as it's being called: USC and Notre Dame. Both won convincingly, but did either team change its outlook or make a better impression? In other words, who did better?

The short answer: Notre Dame. The Irish dominated Navy in Ireland, 42-3, answering all questions on offense and defense and showing that they've improved over last year's 9-4 team. Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman lived up to the hype, completing 19 of 23 passes for 4 touchdowns, and the defense held Navy's vaunted rushing attack to just 126 yards for the game. We had Notre Dame as 15 point favorites and they exceeded that greatly.

USC did about as well as expected but left open the question as to whether they're better than last year, especially on defense, as they beat San Jose State 56-28. The offense was fantastic, and 2022 Heisman winner Caleb Williams picked up where he left off, throwing for 4 TDs on 18 of 25 passing, and WR Zacharia Branch is already the team's breakout star on offense and special teams.

But there was never any doubt about USC's offense; the question was about their defense, which was supposed to improve greatly to make USC a complete team. Saturday's results didn't show a team that had made big strides on defense as San Jose State hung around for a long time. The Spartans very nearly had 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing.

So bottom line, Notre Dame was a lot better, and USC about what was expected. Of course, Navy might be worse, and San Jose State might be a lot better, and that might have been more of a factor. But assuming it's a little of both, the Irish improved their outlook the most. Note that these teams play each other later in the year. As a result of this game, Notre Dame's odds to beat USC went from 49.6% to 51.1%. They also edge Louisville now, improving their "straight up" record from 8-4 to 10-2! While USC falls from 10-2 to 9-3. The Trojans still finish ahead in our Playoff Projection, however:

SportsRatings Playoff Projection thru games of 8/26

 Ranking                             Curr |  Projected    |  Playoff
 LW 8/27 Team                   Conf  Rec | W-L  W-L(Cume)|%Odds  %Chg
  1   1. Georgia                SECe  0-0  13-0  11.5-1.5   48.7  +2.4
  2   2. Ohio State             B10e  0-0  11-1   9.9-2.1   36.6  +2.2
  3   3. Alabama                SECw  0-0  12-1  10.2-2.8   29.5  +0.4
  4   4. Michigan               B10e  0-0  13-0  10.5-2.5   29.1  +1.5
  5   5. Tennessee              SECe  0-0  10-2   9.8-2.2   25.5  +1.1
  6   6. Penn State             B10e  0-0  10-2   9.2-2.8   17.2  +1.3
  7   7. Utah                   P12   0-0  13-0   9.3-3.7   14.9  -0.4
  8   8. Texas                  B12   0-0  11-1   8.6-3.4   14.5  -0.5
  9   9. Kansas St              B12   0-0  11-2   9.0-4.0   12.8  -1.2
 10  10. LSU                    SECw  0-0  10-2   8.4-3.6   11.7  -0.3
 12  11. Clemson                ACC   0-0  13-0   9.1-3.9   11.3  +1.0
 13  12. Southern Cal           P12   1-0   9-3   8.8-3.2   10.9  +1.5
 11  13. TCU                    B12   0-0  11-2   9.0-4.0   10.5  -1.5
 14  14. Florida St             ACC   0-0  11-1   8.8-3.2    9.5  +0.3
 15  15. Oregon St              P12   0-0  10-2   8.7-3.3    9.1  +0.6
 16  16. Oregon                 P12   0-0  10-3   8.9-4.1    8.3  +0.9
 17  17. Washington             P12   0-0   9-3   7.8-4.2    7.8  +0.4
 21  18. Notre Dame             IND   1-0  10-2   8.1-3.9    7.0  +1.8
 18  19. Mississippi St         SECw  0-0  10-2   8.1-3.9    6.8  -0.1
 19  20. Illinois               B10w  0-0  10-3   8.3-4.7    5.9  -0.6
 20  21. Tulane                 AAC   0-0  13-0   9.6-3.4    5.9  -0.4
 22  22. Louisville             ACC   0-0  11-2   9.1-3.9    5.0  -0.1
 23  23. Minnesota              B10w  0-0   9-3   7.2-4.8    4.6  +0.1
 24  24. Oklahoma               B12   0-0  10-2   7.1-4.9    3.3  -1.1
 29  25. Mississippi            SECw  0-0   7-5   7.0-5.0    3.0  -0.1

Notre Dame moves up from #21 to #18, while USC moves up a spot from #13 to #12. Both see their odds improve a few percentage points. Notre Dame's flip from 8-4 to 10-2 doesn't move the needle as much as it seems it should since the Projection is based on 10,000 simulated seasons, so the slight shift in odds in a couple of games means very little; the Irish now win 8.1 games on average instead of 7.3, which is a pretty big boost based on one game really. Due to having one certain win under its belt USC's odds move up a bit despite dropping to 9-3 game-by-game. Again, the Notre Dame game (at Notre Dame) is a 50/50 sliver. 

No other top 25 team played on Saturday but some of the numbers still change. Some of this is due to teams that play Notre Dame or USC having slight shifts. Some is due to tightening the variance on the simulations slightly, which is done each weekend (this is a big reason the higher-ranked teams improve the most). And some is due to the random nature of the Monte Carlo simulation which produces different results, even averaged over 10,000 trials.