This year I'm doing things a bit different. Instead of tracking every lost player, gained recruit, and impactful transfer—which these days is about impossible—I'm just going to assume every team is roughy same as they were last year, give or take a touchdown or two. It's not too far from the reality of college football: most teams stay about the same. Using a Monte Carlo simulation of the season gives a good idea of where teams might end up based on their schedule. I use a Playoff-centric metric on every run (10,000 trials) and average each finish, and this is what we get.
In all, over 100 teams have at least a prayer (1 in a million) shot at the Playoff, with around 75 having a better than 1 in 1000 chance. Just about 50 teams have a 1% chance, 22 are over 5%, and the top 12 teams are all north of 10%. No team begins the year with a greater than 50% chance of making the Playoff, mostly because we assume such great possible variance in team quality. That assumed variance will decrease throughout the season and the odds become more certain.
Key:
Rec = straight up record / cumulative projection; CFP = Playoff odds; Bowl = Bowl eligibility odds;
SOS = schedule strength rank; AP = Associated Press pre-season poll; FPI: ESPN Football Power Index;
SP = SP+ pre-season rank; PS = Phil Steele pre-season power poll
2023 SportsRatings Pre-season Projections
(1) Georgia (SEC E#1) Rec:13-0/11.5-1.5 CFP: 46.3% Bowl: 99.9% SOS:#50 AP:1 FPI:3 SP:1 PS:1
The Bulldogs are our favorites again, of course, as they were overwhelmingly #1 last year, when we had them #1 pre-season as well. This year we have more company, with only the FPI downgrading them. Their Playoff odds are almost 50%, they're expected to go 13-0, and there aren't many tough games on their schedule.
Game #1 Georgia (13-0) Odds 1 FCS Tennessee-Martin 99.7 2 #102 Ball St 99.2 3 # 51 South Carolina 92.2 4 # 72 Alabama-Birmingham 96.3 5 @ # 47 Auburn 86.9 6 # 52 Kentucky 92.2 7 @ # 90 Vanderbilt 94.6 8 N # 44 Florida 88.4 9 # 54 Missouri 93.1 10 # 29 Mississippi 87.2 11 @ # 5 Tennessee 55.7 12 @ # 95 Georgia Tech 95.7 13 # 3 Alabama 65.1
Their biggest challenge may be on the road at Tennessee, and they should defend their SEC title in Atlanta again.There is a legit question at QB, but overall they had to replace a lot more last season and they only got better. Do I think they'll threepeat? No, because this isn't 1950s Oklahoma, nobody threepeats these days. But I expect the Bulldogs in the Playoff.
(2) Ohio State (B10 E#1) Rec:11-1/9.8-2.2 CFP: 34.4% Bowl: 99.9% SOS:#17 AP:3 FPI:1 SP:2 PS:2
Remember last year's missed field goal? The one that would have made everyone forget about Georgia instead of ushering them into the #1 pre-season spot. The Buckeyes were within one play of being that team; instead they're the challenger, tasked with getting past Michigan once again. But once again, they might not have to win that game to make the Playoff, and they're a unanimous choice so far. No one seems concerned that they lose CJ Stroud, and we're not either. They have all their receivers back and that should be enough to keep their offense super-charged.
Game #2 Ohio State (11-1) Odds 1 @ # 85 Indiana 90.1 2 FCS Youngstown St 99.2 3 # 56 Western Kentucky 90.4 4 @ # 21 Notre Dame 74.1 5 # 34 Maryland 85.8 6 @ # 48 Purdue 83.6 7 # 6 Penn State 67.3 8 @ # 26 Wisconsin 75.5 9 @ #108 Rutgers 94.6 10 # 58 Michigan St 89.7 11 # 23 Minnesota 82.3 12 @ # 4 Michigan 48.9
We have them slight underdogs to Michigan but 11-1 should again be good enough. Or they'll win that game and make the Playoff that way. Overall they get in over 1/3 of the time. The simulation puts them higher on average than the Wolverines despite losing a slight majority on the road in The Game; the Buckeyes beat #21 Notre Dame on the road 3 of 4 times and #6 Penn State at home 2 out of 3.
(3) Alabama (SEC W#1) Rec:12-1/10.0-3.0 CFP: 29.1% Bowl: 99.8% SOS:#7 AP:4 FPI:2 SP:4 PS:4
Our only new Playoff team from last year is Alabama, if you can call the Tide a "new" Playoff team. Alabama rarely goes two years without a national title, so do you really think they'll go two straight years without being in the Playoff? The other polls/ratings surveyed all have them in. They do lose QB Bryce Young and a good chunk of their defense, but almost none of the top teams return their QB so they're in the same boat, and every year the Tide lose NFL level talent and their defense is just as good after reloading—and the transfer portal just makes it easier.
Game #3 Alabama (12-1) Odds 1 #100 Middle Tennessee St 97.2 2 # 8 Texas 69.0 3 @ #115 South Florida 95.6 4 # 29 Mississippi 81.6 5 @ # 18 Mississippi St 67.2 6 @ # 61 Texas A&M 82.2 7 # 42 Arkansas 86.1 8 # 5 Tennessee 58.6 9 # 10 LSU 70.9 10 @ # 52 Kentucky 80.8 11 FCS Chattanooga 98.2 12 @ # 47 Auburn 80.9 13 @ # 1 Georgia 34.9
Alabama's schedule is pretty tough with #8 Texas, #5 Tennessee, and #10 LSU, but they get all of those at home. The trap game might be #18 Mississippi State on the road. Yet in the end the only game they should lose is the SEC title game, and if that's the case they'll be in the Playoff. And if they stumble somewhere, they still have a fair shot at beating the Bulldogs.
(4) Michigan (B10 E#2) Rec:13-0/10.4-2.6 CFP: 27.6% Bowl: 99.9% SOS:#42 AP:2 FPI:6 SP:3 PS:3
Jim Harbaugh will try again, suspension or no, and has a solid chance of getting his third shot in a row at winning the Playoff. This year he might just pull it off. Among the top teams Michigan is unique in returning their starting quarterback (JJ McCarthy) and they have RBs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards both back. The defense remains stacked too.
Game #4 Michigan (13-0) Odds 1 # 60 East Carolina 88.9 2 #103 UNLV 97.2 3 #121 Bowling Green 98.4 4 #108 Rutgers 96.5 5 @ # 71 Nebraska 86.3 6 @ # 23 Minnesota 68.2 7 # 85 Indiana 93.4 8 @ # 58 Michigan St 80.1 9 # 48 Purdue 87.6 10 @ # 6 Penn State 51.1 11 @ # 34 Maryland 73.7 12 # 2 Ohio State 51.1 13 N # 19 Illinois 70.8
The Wolverines are the 2nd-ranked team in the Big Ten East over our full simulation but are favored head-to-head against Ohio State so they get the nod for the Big Ten Championship game vs. Illinois. They show a 13-0 expected record but only around a 10-3 in cumulative odds, the problem being that they have two 50/50 games: home vs. #2 Ohio State, and at #6 Penn State. They also face #23 Minnesota on the road. Like Ohio State they have multiple paths to the Playoff but will their again be room for two Big Ten teams?
(5) Tennessee (SEC E#2) Rec:10-2/9.7-2.3 CFP: 24.4% Bowl: 99.9% SOS:#29 AP:12 FPI:12 SP:8 PS:14
(6) Penn State (B10 E#3) Rec:10-2/9.1-2.9 CFP: 15.9% Bowl: 99.6% SOS:#31 AP:7 FPI:10 SP:6 PS:5
There were two SEC teams in the 2021 Playoff, and two Big Ten teams in the 2022 Playoff. We're calling for two each in the 2023 Playoff. That makes Tennessee and Penn State the ultimate bridesmaids, the third-place team in both leagues. Either could make the Playoff with a break here or there.
Tennessee isn't supposed to be a #5 level team this year according to the other polls/rankings, mainly because they lose Henden Hooker. But as we've noted, almost everyone loses their QB this year. And Joe Milton's Thor-like arm might just make this a situation like 1998, when Tennessee won the national title a year after Peyton Manning graduated. The problem is the Vols have to face both Alabama and Georgia along the way.
Game #5 Tennessee (10-2) Odds 7 @ # 3 Alabama 41.4 11 # 1 Georgia 44.3
Penn State has similar issues. They lose QB Sean Clifford, their all-time leading passer, and also have to play Ohio State and Michigan.
Game #6 Penn State (10-2) Odds 7 @ # 2 Ohio State 32.8 10 # 4 Michigan 48.9
The Nittany Lions have a decent shot at beating Michigan at home, almost 50/50, but their odds vs. the Buckeyes on the road are a lot more slim. Still, it gives them hope for a 3-way tie at the top of the Big Ten East which could put them in the conference championship game and the Playoff. Note that their odds fall off quite a bit from Tennessee's, from about 1 in 4 to about 1 in 6. Mainly this is because both of Penn State's Big Ten rivals are in their same division.
(7) Utah (P12 #1) Rec:13-0/9.4-3.6 CFP: 15.3% Bowl: 98.7% SOS:#40 AP:14 FPI:15 SP:14 PS:10
Utah is favored, game-by-game, to go 13-0 and if they do, they'll break the SEC/Big Ten stronghold in the Playoff. They might need to go 13-0 to make it from the Pac-12, but with so much parity at the top the Utes average out closer to 9-4. That won't do it. And no one else has them in the top ten except Phil Steele (barely).
Game #7 Utah (13-0) Odds 5 @ # 15 Oregon St 52.6 7 @ # 13 Southern Cal 53.6 8 # 16 Oregon 65.9 10 @ # 17 Washington 56.1 13 N # 16 Oregon 59.9
That's a lot of close calls with #15 Oregon State, #13 USC, and #17 Washington all on the road. Add in #16 Oregon twice and the Utes will need to be on point to make the Playoff. With QB Cameron Rising back they've got a shot, but it might be another year of King of the Mountain in the Pac-12, with each new contender pushing the next off the heap.
(8) Texas (B12 #1) Rec:10-2/8.5-3.5 CFP: 15.0% Bowl: 97.8% SOS:#13 AP:11 FPI:5 SP:9 PS:8
(9) Kansas St (B12 #2) Rec:11-2/8.9-4.1 CFP: 14.0% Bowl: 97.1% SOS:#32 AP:16 FPI:27 SP:20 PS:31
(10) LSU (SEC W#2) Rec:11-1/8.5-3.5 CFP: 12.0% Bowl: 97.9% SOS:#16 AP:5 FPI:4 SP:5 PS:11
(11) TCU (B12 #3) Rec:12-1/9.0-4.0 CFP: 12.0% Bowl: 97.7% SOS:#41 AP:17 FPI:17 SP:21 PS:23
This group includes three contenders from the Big Twelve and yet another SEC team. Let's address #10 LSU first. As you can see most (except Steele) put the Tigers in the Playoff or on the cusp, around were we have Tennessee. QB Jayden Daniels is back as a talented passer and the team's #1 runner, which makes him perhaps Hendon Hooker's heir for SEC POY—and also a major loss for the team if like Hooker, he gets injured.
Game #10 LSU (11-1) Odds 1 @ # 14 Florida St 50.8 3 @ # 18 Mississippi St 51.4 9 @ # 3 Alabama 29.1
LSU's problems start with playing Florida State again, and this time it's mostly a road game. Mississippi State might be just as tough, and that's a true road game. Finally, they travel to Alabama and their odds there are even slimmer as the Tide will be out for revenge. Though slight favorites in the first two, the overall odds are they split those and lose to the Tide.
Now the Big Twelve. Texas is of course rated high be our method; how could they not be? It happens every year, and last year the Longhorns were a Power Rating darling despite going 8-5. Things like "almost beating Alabama" and "losing 5 games by a touchdown or less" will do that.
Game #8 Texas (10-2) Odds 2 @ # 3 Alabama 31.0 6 N # 24 Oklahoma 68.4 9 # 9 Kansas St 60.2 10 @ # 11 TCU 49.9
But we don't show the Longhorns in the Big Twelve title game—Kansas State and TCU get the nods instead. See, head-to-head, Texas just barely loses to TCU, who loses to K-State, who loses to Texas, yielding a three-way tie at the top of the conference. And Texas loses the 3-team tiebreaker for having a 2nd loss. Yep—unless they can beat the Tide in a non-conference game, the Longhorns don't win the Big Twelve without going unbeaten there.
Game #9 Kansas St (11-2) Odds 6 @ # 25 Texas Tech 60.0 7 # 11 TCU 58.1 9 @ # 8 Texas 39.8 13 @ # 11 TCU 46.6
Game #11 TCU (12-1) Odds 8 @ # 9 Kansas St 42.0 9 @ # 25 Texas Tech 57.7 10 # 8 Texas 50.1 12 @ # 24 Oklahoma 57.5 13 # 9 Kansas St 53.5
Last year's Big Twelve champ K-State and last year's Playoff runner-up TCU will have their hands full replicating those successes for sure. Both receive sizable—sometimes severe—downgrades in the other polls and power ratings. Most have Oklahoma vs. Texas for the title, but how much confidence do you have in either of those teams after being overrated year after year?
(12) Clemson (ACC #1) Rec:13-0/9.1-3.9 CFP: 10.3% Bowl: 97.4% SOS:#59 AP:9 FPI:8 SP:7 PS:6
(13) Southern Cal (P12 #2) Rec:10-2/8.6-3.4 CFP: 9.4% Bowl: 98.1% SOS:#55 AP:6 FPI:7 SP:10 PS:9
(14) Florida St (ACC #2) Rec:10-2/8.7-3.3 CFP: 9.2% Bowl: 98.6% SOS:#54 AP:8 FPI:14 SP:12 PS:7
Clemson and FSU are the two clear favorites in the ACC this year, both with a decent shot at making the Playoff. We have them a bit lower than most rankings where the Tigers are consensus top 10 and FSU near-consensus. On paper FSU should have improved more with QB Jordan Travis back while Clemson is depending on the Cade Klubnik hype being real.
Game #12 Clemson (13-0) Odds 4 # 14 Florida St 53.4 9 # 21 Notre Dame 62.1 13 N # 22 Louisville 56.2
Game 14 Florida St (10-2) Odds 1 # 10 LSU 49.2 4 @ # 12 Clemson 46.6
So why doesn't FSU show up in the ACC conference championship? They play Clemson on the road which makes the Tigers the favorite there, and shockingly allows Louisville to slip in as the #2 team! At least going by the straight up favorites, which is how I'm choosing the conference title game opponents to keep things sane. If the Cardinals falter then FSU will get a rematch. Meanwhile both teams have a stiff challenge that could prevent the conference winner from reaching the CFP: Clemson hosts Notre Dame while FSU plays LSU in Orlando. The doubts associated with winning those games keep these teams out of our projected top ten.
Speaking of projected top ten, USC is an across-the-board top ten in the other rankings sampled. They're our #2 Pac-12 team and the parity in that league keeps their Playoff odds in the single digits.
Game #13 Southern Cal (10-2) Odds 7 @ # 21 Notre Dame 50.4 8 # 7 Utah 46.4 10 # 17 Washington 59.3 11 @ # 16 Oregon 45.0
Though they return a ton of talent—including Heisman trophy winner Caleb Williams—they face Notre Dame and Oregon on the road, and Utah and Washington to boot. That's a lot to navigate and no margin for error but they almost did it last year and could be even better this season. Outside of those games their schedule is pretty easy, and overall very comparable to Clemson's and FSU's ACC slates.
(15) Oregon St (P12 #3) Rec:10-2/8.6-3.4 CFP:8.5% Bowl: 97.9% SOS:#58 AP:18 FPI:24 SP:31 PS:19
(16) Oregon (P12 #4) Rec:10-3/8.7-4.3 CFP:7.4% Bowl: 97.5% SOS:#44 AP:15 FPI:13 SP:13 PS:15
(17) Washington (P12 #5) Rec:9-3/7.7-4.3 CFP:7.4% Bowl: 91.7% SOS:#43 AP:10 FPI:21 SP:17 PS:17
Talk about parity. The Pac-12 has Utah at #7, USC at #13, and three more teams from #15 to #17. Oregon State averages one spot ahead of Oregon, who wins the head-to-head over the Beavers at home to gain a berth in the Pac-12 title game. Washington isn't far behind. It may come down to quarterbacks, with the Ducks' Bo Nix vs. Washington's Michael Penix, and Oregon State perhaps fielding Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei. They all have their issues, too: Oregon and Washington on defense, while Oregon State loses a lot of its strong defense.
Game #15 Oregon St (10-2) Odds 5 # 7 Utah 47.4 11 # 17 Washington 60.2 12 @ # 16 Oregon 45.1 Game #16 Oregon (10-3) Odds 2 @ # 25 Texas Tech 51.0 6 @ # 17 Washington 46.2 8 @ # 7 Utah 34.1 10 # 13 Southern Cal 55.0 12 # 15 Oregon St 54.9 13 N # 7 Utah 40.1 Game #17 Washington (9-3) Odds 6 # 16 Oregon 53.8 9 @ # 13 Southern Cal 40.7 10 # 7 Utah 43.9 11 @ # 15 Oregon St 39.8
Oregon State's slate is the easiest of the three but they face Oregon on the road, bad for a rivalry game. Oregon plays the most from our Top 25 including a trip to Texas Tech, with Washington and Utah on the road—but beating the Beavers gives them the tie-breaker in the Pac-12 and they have a cupcake non-conference slate. Washington has USC and Oregon State both on the road as well as a probably loss to Utah offsetting a win over Oregon. Again, these are all so close among the top five teams that it's likely every team has two losses and no one reaches the Playoff, though this trio has nearly a combined 1 in 4 chance.
(18) Miss St (SEC W#3) Rec:10-2/8.1-3.9 CFP:6.9% Bowl: 95.9% SOS:#30 AP:39 FPI:32 SP:29 PS:36
(19) Illinois (B10 W#1) Rec:10-3/8.2-4.8 CFP:6.5% Bowl: 94.0% SOS:#51 AP:43 FPI:45 SP:43 PS:27
(20) Tulane (AAC #1) Rec:13-0/9.6-3.4 CFP:6.3% Bowl: 98.9% SOS:#94 AP:24 FPI:55 SP:44 PS:48
The three teams above might collectively be called "the overrated" at least according to our other rankings surveyed. #18 Mississippi State averages #34 among the AP, FPI, SP+ and Phil Steele, while #19 Illinois averages #39 and #20 Tulane pans out around #43! The reasoning is sound: The Bulldogs are breaking in a new offense with their new coach following Mike Leach's death; the Illini lost their defensive coordinator and weren't very good on offense; and Tulane loses their star RB, two top WRs, and 5 top tacklers on D from last year.
Game #18 Mississippi St (10-2) Odds 3 # 10 LSU 48.6 5 # 3 Alabama 32.9 Game #19 Illinois (10-3) Odds 3 # 6 Penn State 41.4 9 @ # 23 Minnesota 46.7 13 N # 4 Michigan 29.2 Game #20 Tulane (13-0) Odds 2 # 29 Mississippi 54.3 6 @ # 37 Memphis 55.5 13 # 37 Memphis 67.4
But there are upsides, too. Mississippi State and Illinois will be flying under the radar in their tough conferences, and both have fairly lax schedules considering. The Bulldogs have LSU at home which is a winnable game and other than that, no other teams in our top 25 except Alabama. Illinois hosts Penn State and travels to Minnesota, and even if they lose that they probably finish ahead of the Gophers who face a much tougher slate. That could get them into the Big Ten title game as shown above.
Meanwhile Tulane's American Athletic Conference lost key members UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston to the Big Twelve, making the league a shadow of its former self and opening the door for Tulane to go undefeated in 2023; we show every top 50 team they play this year above, and it's not a long list. It's still more likely they go around 10-3 and only have a 6% chance of making the Playoff, but confidence and a much easier schedule should yield another great season.
(21) Notre Dame (IND #1) Rec:8-4/7.3-4.7 CFP:5.2% Bowl: 87.8% SOS:#27 AP:13 FPI:9 SP:11 PS:12
(22) Louisville (ACC #3) Rec:12-1/9.1-3.9 CFP:5.1% Bowl: 98.0% SOS:#79 AP:34 FPI:46 SP:40 PS:51
#21 Notre Dame is ranked much higher in the other surveys, including #9 in the FPI, while #22 Louisville is far lower, all the way down at #51 in Phil Steele's Power Poll. We have the two teams neck and neck and as it turns out, they play each other this year. Notre Dame is sort of an honorary ACC team after all. Louisville hosts the game and wins the majority in our book but despite going 12-1 to the Irish's 8-4 they still have the same 5% chance to go to the Playoff.
Game #21 Notre Dame (8-4) Odds 5 # 2 Ohio State 25.9 7 @ # 22 Louisville 44.8 8 # 13 Southern Cal 49.6 10 @ # 12 Clemson 37.9
As usual the Irish have a stiff schedule for an Independent, facing Ohio State and USC as well as Louisville, Clemson, NC State, and Duke all on the road. The fact that Notre Dame has a fighting chance in most of these games is what gives them a shot at a Playoff berth. Transfer QB Sam Hartman is their big hope this year along with a killer defense.
Game #22 Louisville (12-1) Odds 5 @ # 39 North Carolina St 53.6 6 # 21 Notre Dame 55.3 7 @ # 32 Pittsburgh 51.0 13 N # 12 Clemson 43.8
Meanwhile the Cardinals have an easy schedule which is a double-edged sword; going 12-0 only means they have to face Clemson in the ACC title game and probably knock them out of Playoff contention. Three mid-season games are critical. Louisville has Jeff Brohm at coach now which is something they've wanted for a while, but it will be a big adjustment.
(23) Minnesota (B10 W#2) Rec:9-3/7.2-4.8 CFP:4.5% Bowl: 86.9% SOS:#18 AP:38 FPI:33 SP:27 PS:38
(24) Oklahoma (B12 #4) Rec:10-2/7.1-4.9 CFP:4.4% Bowl: 84.1% SOS:#45 AP:20 FPI:11 SP:15 PS:21
(25) Texas Tech (B12 #5) Rec:7-5/6.8-5.2 CFP:3.5% Bowl: 79.3% SOS:#22 AP:26 FPI:22 SP:32 PS:32
Rounding out the top 25, Minnesota is rated higher here than elsewhere, Oklahoma is underrated, and Texas Tech is about the same.
Game #23 Minnesota (9-3) Odds 6 # 4 Michigan 31.8 7 @ # 27 Iowa 48.1 9 # 19 Illinois 53.3 11 @ # 2 Ohio State 17.8
The Gophers do lose quite a bit but transfers will fill some gaps. They play both Michigan and Ohio State which means they're unlikely to win the Big Ten West despite beating Illinois. Playing Iowa on the road doesn't help either.
Game #24 Oklahoma (10-2) Odds 6 N # 8 Texas 31.6 12 # 11 TCU 42.5 Game #25 Texas Tech (7-5) Odds 2 # 16 Oregon 49.0 6 @ # 28 Baylor 44.9 7 # 9 Kansas St 40.0 9 # 11 TCU 42.3 12 @ # 8 Texas 25.8
While Oklahoma is favored in 10 games and Texas Tech in just 7, their cumulative projections are just 0.3 wins apart. The Sooners only lose to Texas and TCU, and if this happens then they'll finish closer to where the other rankings put them. But losing their top RB and top WR will hurt the offense.
Texas Tech has tight games vs. Oregon, Baylor, K-State, and TCU, with 3 of those 4 at home. Only Texas on the road looks daunting. So 7-5 could become 11-1 if 2nd year coach Joey McGuire's system settles in. They have 2 of 3 QBs back along with all their receivers on a loaded offense. The defense takes a bit of a hit so there may be some shootouts.
(26) Wisconsin (B10 W#3) Rec:8-4/7.3-4.7 CFP:3.3% Bowl: 88.5% SOS:#48 AP:19 FPI:20 SP:19 PS:18
(27) Iowa (B10 W#4) Rec:8-4/7.5-4.5 CFP:3.2% Bowl: 90.1% SOS:#49 AP:25 FPI:37 SP:22 PS:16
(28) Baylor (B12 #6) Rec:7-5/6.7-5.3 CFP:3.1% Bowl: 78.1% SOS:#12 AP:43 FPI:23 SP:34 PS:37
(29) Mississippi (SEC W#4) Rec:7-5/6.9-5.1 CFP:3.1% Bowl: 83.3% SOS:#5 AP:22 FPI:16 SP:18 PS:20
(30) Wake Forest (ACC #4) Rec:8-4/7.1-4.9 CFP:2.3% Bowl: 84.9% SOS:#56 AP:NR FPI:47 SP:45 PS:67
Wisconsin was being touted for a while as a breakthrough team but in the end they rank borderline top-20 across the board. New coach Luke Fickell has former SMU QB Tanner Mordecai leading the offense. Meanwhile, also in the Big Ten West, Iowa has former Michigan QB Cade McNamara to try to crank the offense back to life. Both teams play solid D, with Iowa ranking in the top 5. The head-to-head is in Wisconsin and the Badgers are a 56% favorite to win it. Both teams face a tossup game in the non-conference slate, the Badgers at Washington State and the Hawkeyes at Iowa State.
Baylor is #28 but only #6 in the Big Twelve, which had no weak links and added four more good teams. Overall it ends up watering the league down just a bit. The Bears face a big test in their 2nd game when they host #7 Utah.
Mississippi is in the SEC West so they play #3 Alabama and #10 LSU, but they also draw #1 Georgia and if that weren't enough, the Rebels play #20 Tulane on the road, giving them the #5 schedule in the country.
Wake Forest loses Sam Hartman to Notre Dame and have to play the Irish on the road as well. Add in Clemson and FSU and it puts the Deacs' Playoff hopes at just 2.3%
(31) Iowa St (B12 #7) Rec:6-6/6.0-6.0 CFP:2.1% Bowl:62.6% SOS:#20 AP:NR FPI:43 SP:49 PS:46
(32) Pittsburgh (ACC #5) Rec:6-6/6.9-5.1 CFP:2.1% Bowl: 81.2% SOS:#52 AP:32 FPI:35 SP:36 PS:26
(33) Duke (ACC #6) Rec:7-5/6.9-5.1 CFP:2.0% Bowl: 81.0% SOS:#46 AP:39 FPI:53 SP:50 PS:29
(34) Maryland (B10 E#4) Rec:8-4/7.3-4.7 CFP:2.0% Bowl: 89.1% SOS:#35 AP:NR FPI:44 SP:41 PS:45
(35) UCLA (P12 #6) Rec:9-3/7.6-4.4 CFP:2.0% Bowl: 92.6% SOS:#64 AP:28 FPI:41 SP:28 PS:24
The ACC doesn't have a lot of teams in the top 25; Pitt was one that looked to be hyped earlier in the off-season but no one actually put the Panthers there except for a handful of AP voters. The Pathers lose their QB, top RB, top WR, and 4 top tacklers but still rank reasonably among those surveyed. Meanwhile Duke's projection is, for us, a mirror of Pittsburgh but the Blue Devils are borderline top 50 in FPI and SP+ despite returning nearly their entire offense and most of the defense, too. The difference in their W/L record? Duke hosts Pitt in the last game of the season and wins 55% of the time.
Iowa State looks to be 6-6 no matter how you slice it, but at least that's a bowl game right? 63% of the time, yes. The Cyclones host #27 Iowa in the pre-conference season but play #11 TCU, #9 Kansas State, and #8 Texas as well. If they're better than expected they have the opportunity to make a splash, but it looks rough.
Maryland is in a similar pickle in the Big Ten. The Terps face all three of the deadly trio of #2 Ohio State, #4 Michigan, and #6 Penn State. Two are at home but that is little consolation. The O-line is a big question on offense.
And UCLA looks to be a few levels below the parity-line in the Pac-12, a bad place to be when five teams are in the top 20. The Bruins avoid Oregon and Washington, though, facing #7 Utah, #13 USC, and #15 Oregon State all on the road. This results in a 9-3 straight-up projection but they're more likely to end up with 7 or 8 wins after losing QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson as well as star RB Zach Charbonnet.
(36) UCF (B12 #8) Rec:7-5/6.5-5.5 CFP:1.8% Bowl: 73.1% SOS:#47 AP:NR FPI:26 SP:39 PS:42
(37) Memphis (AAC #2) Rec:10-3/8.6-4.4 CFP:1.8% Bowl: 96.2% SOS:#99 AP:NR FPI:58 SP:52 PS:55
(38) Wash State (P12 #7) Rec:8-4/7.4-4.6 CFP:1.8% Bowl: 89.6% SOS:#60 AP:NR FPI:62 SP:54 PS:61
(39) NC State (ACC #7) Rec:7-5/7.3-4.7 CFP:1.8% Bowl: 87.0% SOS:#65 AP:46 FPI:25 SP:42 PS:39
(40) Kansas (B12 #9) Rec:4-8/6.2-5.8 CFP:1.5% Bowl: 67.7% SOS:#24 AP:34 FPI:68 SP:62 PS:41
Central Florida joins the Big Twelve this year; Kansas has been in the conference (via the Big 8, Big 6, and MVIAA) since 1907. The Jayhawks had a winless season in 2020; UCF went undefeated in 2017. The teams won't be so different when they meet this year in Lawrence: Phil Steele ranks them #41 and #42. We give Kansas a 55% chance to win the head-to-head, but a tougher schedule puts the Jayhawks at an expected 4-8 game-by-game due to playing #19 Illinois and #8 Texas and facing a final six teams against which they'll be slight underdogs each time out. But with a few minor upsets they should probably go bowling again, as should the Knights who go 7-5 providing they beat Boise State on the road in game two.
Due to the departure of UCF (along with Houston and Cincinnati) from the American Athletic Conference Memphis finds themselves in contention for the league title. Their main roadblock is of course #20 Tulane, and they'll be slight underdogs at Missouri too. But the Tigers should reach the ACC championship and get another shot at Tulane; the first game is at home, and the second depends a lot on the results of the first one.
Washington State and North Carolina State both rank #7 in their respective conferences so a shot at the Playoff is a long one. But both should be bowl-eligible come December. The Cougars host #26 Wisconsin in a 50/50 game but have four fairly solid Pac-12 losses. Similarly, NC State has four expected ACC losses and hosts #21 Notre Dame, a tossup that probably they're on the wrong side of.
(41) Cincinnati (B12 #10) Rec:6-6/6.7-5.3 CFP:1.5% Bowl:76.5% SOS:#61 AP:NR FPI:48 SP:53 PS:71
(42) Arkansas (SEC W#5) Rec:7-5/6.8-5.2 CFP:1.5% Bowl: 81.7% SOS:#19 AP:30 FPI:30 SP:30 PS:33
(43) OK State (B12 #11) Rec:6-6/6.4-5.6 CFP:1.5% Bowl:71.5% SOS:#57 AP:NR FPI:38 SP:38 PS:50
(44) Florida (SEC E#3) Rec:5-7/6.0-6.0 CFP:1.3% Bowl: 63.2% SOS:#1 AP:39 FPI:18 SP:23 PS:28
(45) JMU* (SUN E#1) Rec:12-0/8.6-3.4 CFP:1.3%* Bowl: 97.7%* SOS:#127 AP:46 FPI:91 SP:66 PS:64
Another new Big Twelve team (Cincinnati) ranks adjacent to a much earlier joiner (Oklahoma State, in 1925). Both look to go around 6-6, with a bit of upside to help insure bowl eligibility in the "Big 14". Cincy was 9-4 last year in the AAC but loses a lot on offense (nearly all their WRs) and LB Ivan Pace on defense, and with 10 games in the 40-60% range their record could be almost anything. The Cowboys have some big losses, too, and have 7 "close" games as well. Both teams are going to be touch-and-go for bowl eligibility which may come down to the head-to-head, where the home team Cowboys are (slim) favorites.
When you rank in the 40s and you're in the SEC, the prognosis is usually not great. Arkansas and Florida are in this situation. The Razorbacks come out a bit better mostly due to their non-conference schedule being kinder: Florida travels to #7 Utah and faces #14 Florida State in late November. Add in #10 LSU, #5 Tennessee, and #1 Georgia and the Gators have the nation's toughest slate. Arkansas should finish around 7-5 despite being underdogs head-to-head at Florida, who will struggle a bit to be bowl eligible as they face Kentucky and South Carolina both on the road.
One team that won't struggle to make six wins is James Madison, who should be favored in all their games. The Dukes aren't eligible for the post-season, however as they are still bound by the rules of transitioning to the FBS and couldn't get an exception from the Sun Belt. They're again reduced to the role of spoiler for the other Sun teams, maybe the best team in the league despite some key personnel losses on offense.
(46) UNC (ACC #8) Rec:7-5/6.6-5.4 CFP:1.3% Bowl: 75.2% SOS:#62 AP:21 FPI:36 SP:25 PS:22
(47) Auburn (SEC W#6) Rec:5-7/6.1-5.9 CFP:1.2% Bowl: 66.2% SOS:#8 AP:37 FPI:39 SP:26 PS:25
(48) Purdue (B10 W#5) Rec:6-6/5.6-6.4 CFP:1.1% Bowl: 52.2% SOS:#14 AP:NR FPI:50 SP:58 PS:78
(49) Syracuse (ACC #9) Rec:6-6/7.1-4.9 CFP:1.1% Bowl: 85.3% SOS:#67 AP:NR FPI:34 SP:55 PS:70
(50) W Virginia (B12 #12) Rec:5-7/5.7-6.3 CFP:1.0% Bowl: 54.5% SOS:#26 AP:NR FPI:57 SP:60 PS:54
North Carolina and Syracuse are middle-of-the-pack ACC teams though the Tar Heels are highly ranked elsewhere, placing in the top 25 in three of four other rankings. A big reason for that is the return of Drake Maye, a Heisman candidate QB. He loses his two top targets, though, and the Tar Heels defense, though improved, is still a liability. They face South Carolina and Minnesota in a tough pre-conference slate while their ACC schedule is pretty forgiving, and we favor them to beat the Orange at home.
We also favor Purdue over Syracuse at home (Syracuse has four close losses that could turn 6-6 to 10-2). The Boilermakers are really touch and go as far as bowl eligibility is concerned so they need every win they can get. So is West Virginia, who has Penn State and Pitt on their non-conference slate. And one of the toughest schedules in the nation belongs to Auburn, who plays both Georgia and Alabama as well as LSU. Despite being favored in only five games their bowl odds are improved by three gimmes vs. UMass, Samford, and New Mexico State.
(51) South Carolina (SEC E#4) Rec:6-6/6.0-6.0 CFP:1.0% Bowl: 61.7% SOS:#9 AP:27 FPI:42 SP:33 PS:35
(52) Kentucky (SEC E#5) Rec:6-6/6.0-6.0 CFP:0.9% Bowl: 63.3% SOS:#2 AP:33 FPI:28 SP:24 PS:34
(53) Houston (B12 #13) Rec:6-6/5.6-6.4 CFP:0.9% Bowl: 52.9% SOS:#23 AP:NR FPI:54 SP:57 PS:68
(54) Missouri (SEC E#6) Rec:5-7/5.5-6.5 CFP:0.8% Bowl: 50.5% SOS:#3 AP:NR FPI:40 SP:35 PS:40
(55) Troy (SUN W#1) Rec:11-2/7.9-5.1 CFP:0.8% Bowl: 92.8% SOS:#90 AP:34 FPI:69 SP:64 PS:60
(56) W Kentucky (CUSA #1) Rec:11-2/9.6-3.4 CFP:0.8% Bowl:99.3% SOS:#95 AP:NR FPI:88 SP:86 PS:72
(57) Boise St (MTN #1) Rec:8-5/7.8-5.2 CFP:0.7% Bowl: 88.9% SOS:#85 AP:31 FPI:56 SP:48 PS:47
(58) Michigan St (B10 E#5) Rec:5-7/5.7-6.3 CFP:0.7% Bowl: 54.5% SOS:#10 AP:NR FPI:31 SP:46 PS:66
(59) Fresno St (MTN #2) Rec:12-1/9.0-4.0 CFP:0.7% Bowl: 97.3% SOS:#125 AP:NR FPI:70 SP:63 PS:65
SEC teams South Carolina, Kentucky, and Missouri have the #9, #2, and #3 schedule strength in the nation, and seeing as they rank 4th, 5th, and 6th just in the East division, it's not hard to see why they'd have trouble with bowl eligibility. But SEC teams are good at scheduling enough "gimme games" to get them a head start to six wins: the Gamecocks have Furman and Jacksonville State; the Wildcats have Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, and Akron; and Missouri has South Dakota and MTSU. But the Tigers also scheduled #9 Kansas State for a non-conference foe, and that leaves them right on the cusp of qualifying. Houston is another team that may struggle to get to a bowl game given their tough schedule in the BIg Twelve, and Michigan State is in the Big Ten East meaning they play Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State—and they also host #17 Washington.
Three teams in this range rank #1 in their conference: Troy is tops in the Sun Belt; Western Kentucky is #1 in CUSA; and Boise State is #1 in the Mountain West. Interestingly, Boise State is expected to lose twice to #59 Fresno State: once in the regular season and again the Mountain West championship. Further, their expected 8-5 is far worse than Fresno's 12-1. But cumulatively the difference narrows, and Boise's higher rating is an average of many runs. If Fresno does much worse than 12-1 their poor schedule strength tanks them rating-wise.
(60) E Carolina (Amer #3) Rec:9-3/6.9-5.1 CFP:0.7% Bowl: 82.6% SOS:#73 AP:NR FPI:76 SP:87 PS:90
(61) Texas A&M (SEC W#7) Rec:6-6/6.0-6.0 CFP:0.6% Bowl: 62.8% SOS:#6 AP:23 FPI:19 SP:16 PS:13
(62) Air Force (MTN #3) Rec:11-1/9.1-2.9 CFP:0.6% Bowl: 99.3% SOS:#132 AP:NR FPI:86 SP:70 PS:56
(63) UTSA (Amer #4) Rec:9-3/7.0-5.0 CFP:0.6% Bowl: 84.0% SOS:#72 AP:29 FPI:61 SP:56 PS:43
(64) SMU (Amer #5) Rec:8-4/7.5-4.5 CFP:0.6% Bowl: 91.6% SOS:#84 AP:NR FPI:49 SP:47 PS:49
(65) S Alabama (SUN W#2) Rec:8-4/7.0-5.0 CFP:0.3% Bowl: 82.6% SOS:#96 AP:46 FPI:85 SP:65 PS:44
(66) App State (SUN E#2) Rec:9-4/7.3-5.7 CFP:0.3% Bowl: 80.2% SOS:#111 AP:NR FPI:77 SP:74 PS:62
(67) California (P12 #8) Rec:4-8/4.7-7.3 CFP:0.2% Bowl: 31.2% SOS:#21 AP:NR FPI:51 SP:61 PS:63
(68) Arizona (P12 #9) Rec:4-8/5.3-6.7 CFP:0.2% Bowl: 43.1% SOS:#33 AP:NR FPI:59 SP:67 PS:76
(69) Marshall (SUN E#3) Rec:7-5/7.0-5.0 CFP:0.2% Bowl: 82.1% SOS:#105 AP:NR FPI:66 SP:73 PS:58
(70) Navy (Amer #6) Rec:7-5/6.6-5.4 CFP:0.2% Bowl: 76.2% SOS:#89 AP:NR FPI:108 SP:102 PS:82
East Carolina, along with UTSA, SMU, and Navy, are all hopefuls in the American Athletic Conference—hopeful to knock Tulane off its perch at the top, along with our #2 AAC team Memphis. East Carolina gets Tulane at home and has a 39% chance of beating them; UTSA has around a 29% chance to win on the road; SMU doesn't play Tulane but plays at Memphis, with about a 40% chance of success; and Navy also just plays Memphis on the road with 30% odds. This is why the Green Wave and Tigers are favored to meet in the AAC title game. All four challenges look pretty well set for bowl eligibility though.
Three Sun Belt teams occupy this space, ranking from #2 to #4 in that league among the eligible teams so they should all be in the mix for a conference title. Appalachian State gets our nod for the title game rep from the East (since JMU isn't eligible); Marshall faces App State and also South Alabama on the road, putting them at a disadvantage in the East. Meanwhile South Alabama plays at Troy making their path tougher. All three have easy schedules overall and should have little difficulty qualifying for a bowl game.
Texas A&M at #61 is one of the most "underrated" teams on our list compared to the consensus, which has the Aggies lodged in the top 25. Last year the team had an offense as bad as Iowa's and a solid but not great defense. Both should be improved but their schedule is the 6th toughest in the country. The Aggies face Alabama, Tennessee, and LSU, as well as both Mississippi teams, Auburn, South Carolina, and Arkansas. Not a single one of those is a guaranteed win. They should get to six wins but any more than that is cake. If they're really a top 25 team they should start 5-0, beating Miami FL, Auburn, and Arkansas.
Air Force plays the #132rd toughest schedule out of 133, making bowl qualification a breeze but they have to win at Boise State to get in the Mountain West title game. It should be close and if they can do it, they could go 12-0 or even 13-0. And even that probably wouldn't get them much consideration for the Playoff; even our 0.6% chance is probably over-estimated.
Finally, in contrast to these teams with easy schedules and high odds of bowl eligibility we give you California and Arizona, the #8 and #9 Pac-12 teams. Both are expected to get 4 or 5 wins. In addition to 9 conference games each plays a Power Five foe: Auburn for Cal, and Mississippi State (on the road) for the Wildcats. This results in dismal bowl eligibility scores of 31% and 43% respectively. Arizona's better odds come from scheduling UTEP and playing Colorado this year (though who knows what that really means yet).
(71) Nebraska (B10 W#6) Rec:4-8/5.3-6.7 CFP:0.2% Bowl: 45.4% SOS:#36 AP:NR FPI:52 SP:59 PS:52
(72) UAB (Amer #7) Rec:7-5/6.2-5.8 CFP:0.2% Bowl: 67.8% SOS:#68 AP:NR FPI:79 SP:100 PS:108
(73) BYU (B12 #14) Rec:2-10/4.9-7.1 CFP:0.2% Bowl: 33.6% SOS:#28 AP:NR FPI:60 SP:51 PS:57
(74) Arizona St* (P12 #10) Rec:3-9/4.9-7.1 CFP:0.1% Bowl: 33.0% SOS:#34 AP:NR FPI:64 SP:69 PS:85
(75) ULL (SUN W#3) Rec:8-4/7.0-5.0 CFP:0.1% Bowl: 82.7% SOS:#110 AP:NR FPI:80 SP:81 PS:80
(76) Tulsa (Amer #8) Rec:6-6/6.3-5.7 CFP:0.1% Bowl: 69.5% SOS:#75 AP:NR FPI:98 SP:96 PS:116
(77) Florida Atl (Amer #9) Rec:6-6/5.6-6.4 CFP:0.1% Bowl: 51.8% SOS:#69 AP:NR FPI:82 SP:84 PS:77
(78) Army (IND #2) Rec:6-6/6.5-5.5 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 74.5% SOS:#86 AP:NR FPI:102 SP:95 PS:79
(79) GA State (SUN E#4) Rec:4-8/5.9-6.1 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 58.9% SOS:#92 AP:NR FPI:92 SP:91 PS:106
(80) N Texas (Amer #10) Rec:4-8/5.9-6.1 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 60.9% SOS:#97 AP:NR FPI:84 SP:89 PS:91
Over this range each team's Playoff odds drop from around 1 in 500 (a dream) to about 1 in 2500 or lower. But bowl game odds remain high in many cases, mostly correlated with schedule strength. Hence Louisiana-Lafayette (#110 SOS) has a 83% bowl chance, and fellow Sun Belt team Georgia State (#92 SOS) has 59% chance despite being 4-8 straight up. In the AAC, UAB, Tulsa, and Florida Atlantic have similar SOS values (68, 75, 69) but the Blazers and Hurricane have nearly 70% bowl odds vs. the Owls 52% (FAU plays its pushover teams on the road, making them less automatic). North Texas has the #97 SOS and a 61% bowl chance, while Army (#86 SOS) has a 75% chance.
Larger-conference teams aren't as fortunate. Nebraska has the #36 SOS and is under 50% in bowl odds; most other sources call for improvement but the program hasn't had a winning season since 2016. BYU joins the Big Twelve and their SOS is up to #28, and being ranked 14th of 14 teams means they'll be favored in just two games: Sam Houston State and Southern Utah. Upsets should get them to around five wins but their odds of 6 or more are about 1 in 3. And Arizona State is 10th of 12 teams in the Pac-12 and has a similar 1 in 3 chance; this is probably why they chose to self-impose a bowl ban this year rather than take scholarship reductions due to prior violations.
(81) Stanford (P12 #11) Rec:3-9/4.5-7.5 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 24.3% SOS:#38 AP:NR FPI:71 SP:92 PS:111
(82) Miami FL (ACC #10) Rec:6-6/5.4-6.6 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 45.6% SOS:#66 AP:NR FPI:29 SP:37 PS:30
(83) Ohio U. (MAC E#1) Rec:9-4/8.0-5.0 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 89.8% SOS:#126 AP:NR FPI:94 SP:93 PS:69
(84) Toledo (MAC W#1) Rec:11-2/8.1-4.9 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 90.6% SOS:#119 AP:39 FPI:81 SP:71 PS:53
(85) Indiana (B10 E#6) Rec:3-9/4.4-7.6 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 21.2% SOS:#4 AP:NR FPI:75 SP:83 PS:86
(86) Liberty (CUSA #2) Rec:10-3/8.2-4.8 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 94.0% SOS:#131 AP:46 FPI:97 SP:82 PS:110
(87) N'western (B10 W#7) Rec:2-10/4.2-7.8 CFP:<0.1% Bowl:18.9% SOS:#37 AP:NR FPI:67 SP:85 PS:84
(88) CCU (SUN E#5) Rec:5-7/5.8-6.2 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 57.7% SOS:#109 AP:43 FPI:83 SP:68 PS:88
(89) GSU (SUN E#6) Rec:7-5/6.2-5.8 CFP:<0.1% Bowl:66.5% SOS:#107 AP:NR FPI:87 SP:98 PS:102
(90) Vanderbilt (SEC E#7) Rec:3-9/4.6-7.4 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 24.1% SOS:#11 AP:NR FPI:73 SP:76 PS:92
Stanford and Miami are two lower-ranking Power Five teams. Miami's lower SOS yields a higher Bowl% odds, as the Hurricanes are favorites in half their games. And if you look at other forecasts for Miami, things could be really good as they rank as high as 29th (SP+) though they still don't get a single AP poll vote. Many people believe a return to greatness is coming under coach Mario Cristobal but until it yields concrete results we forecast another middling season. Stanford may be overrated here as they are depleted on both offense and defense, are breaking in a new coach, and couldn't use the transfer portal as readily as other teams.
Ohio and Toledo are the two top MAC teams, our favorites in the East and West respectively. They have low SOS and high Bowl% odds in common, and when they meet in Detroit for the MAC final it's really a tossup (we show Ohio winning 51.1% of the time).
Liberty, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia Southern should all be bowl eligible with their triple-digit SOS scores, but whether they get a bid is another matter. Liberty should make the C-USA final and that would make them a certain choice I think, but lower-echelon Sun Belt teams aren't as certain. The number of bowls seems to grow each year so I wouldn't be too worried.
Indiana, Northwestern, and Vanderbilt will probably be out of luck though. The Hoosiers play the #4 schedule, facing Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State while Northwestern avoids the latter two. But the Wildcats are only favorites in two games, making a bowl bid harder; also there's the unexpected departure of coach Pat Fitzgerald. Vanderbilt is essentially the Northwestern of the SEC and have nearly matching numbers.
(91) Virginia (ACC #11) Rec:4-8/4.6-7.4 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 27.8% SOS:#53 AP:NR FPI:72 SP:79 PS:93
(92) VA Tech (ACC #12) Rec:1-11/4.0-8.0 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 10.5% SOS:#63 AP:NR FPI:63 SP:72 PS:75
(93) So. Miss (SUN W#4) Rec:5-7/5.4-6.6 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 46.1% SOS:#70 AP:NR FPI:93 SP:99 PS:81
(94) Kent St (MAC E#2) Rec:8-4/6.4-5.6 CFP:<0.1% Bowl:71.4% SOS:#104 AP:NR FPI:123 SP:132 PS:132
(95) GA Tech (ACC #13) Rec:3-9/4.8-7.2 CFP:<0.1% Bowl:30.6% SOS:#39 AP:NR FPI:65 SP:75 PS:83
(96) SDSU (MTN #4) Rec:6-6/6.1-5.9 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 65.0% SOS:#82 AP:NR FPI:89 SP:80 PS:59
(97) SJSU (MTN #5) Rec:6-6/5.8-6.2 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 57.6% SOS:#77 AP:NR FPI:100 SP:94 PS:96
(98) Buffalo (MAC E#3) Rec:8-4/6.2-5.8 CFP:<0.1% Bowl:57.7% SOS:#124 AP:NR FPI:103 SP:97 PS:97
(99) ODU (SUN E#7) Rec:2-10/4.8-7.2 CFP:<0.1% Bowl:33.2% SOS:#112 AP:NR FPI:115 SP:121 PS:126
(100) MTSU (CUSA #3) Rec:8-4/6.5-5.5 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 76.7% SOS:#83 AP:NR FPI:112 SP:104 PS:98
Virginia and Virginia Tech, side by side—but not where they want to be. Though the Hokies have an easier schedule overall, note that they are only favored against one opponent (#99 Old Dominion) as they go on the road for Rutgers and Boston College. The Cavaliers are a better team, too; they are favored at Boston College, and a 61% favorite to beat the Hokies at home. Add in Georgia Tech and we're almost done with the ACC. The Yellow Jackets play Georgia and Mississippi out of conference, and in conference they aren't one of the better ACC teams.
San Diego State and San Jose State are also side by side. The Mountain West isn't a strong conference this year, so the Aztecs and Spartans should go bowling despite scheduling two Pac-12 teams each (UCLA and Oregon State for SDSU, and USC and Oregon State for SJSU).
(101) JSU* (CUSA #4) Rec:6-6/5.8-6.2 CFP:<0.1%* Bowl: 56.4%* SOS:#121 FPI:131 SP:123 PS:125
(102) Ball St (MAC W#2) Rec:3-9/5.2-6.8 CFP:<0.1% Bowl:43.4 SOS:#81 FPI:111 SP:107 PS:104
(103) UNLV (MTN #6) Rec:6-6/5.7-6.3 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 55.6% SOS:#87 FPI:105 SP:110 PS:117
(104) Temple (Amer #11) Rec:2-10/5.1-6.9 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 37.9% SOS:#116 FPI:110 SP:103 PS:100
(105) Wyoming (MTN #7) Rec:5-7/5.4-6.6 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 48.1% SOS:#76 FPI:90 SP:90 PS:87
(106) E Mich (MAC W#3) Rec:6-6/6.5-5.5 CFP:<0.1% Bowl: 73.4% SOS:#122 FPI:109 SP:105 PS:99
(107) Ark St (SUN W#5) Rec:3-9/5.1-6.9 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 38.6% SOS:#103 FPI:99 SP:111 PS:118
(108) Rutgers (B10 E#7) Rec:4-8/4.0-8.0 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 13.4% SOS:#15 FPI:78 SP:77 PS:73
(109) Miami OH (MAC E#5) Rec:4-8/5.7-6.3 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 55.7% SOS:#130 FPI:96 SP:101 PS:95
(110) B.C. (ACC #14) Rec:4-8/4.6-7.4 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 26.8% SOS:#80 FPI:74 SP:78 PS:74
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (JSU) and Sam Houston State Bearkats (at #128)join the FBS this year. They're ineligible for the post-season which isn't an issue for the Playoff but the Gamecocks would have a good shot at bowl-eligibility as they're favored in six games. Having the #121 schedule helps. It kind of shows how far the C-USA has fallen that two new teams are #4 and #5 in the league, though others project them lower. They do play each other, at Sam Houston State, and we have Jacksonville State a 64% favorite.
(111) ULM (SUN W#6) Rec:2-10/4.2-7.8 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 18.0% SOS:#101 FPI:127 SP:124 PS:131
(112) UTEP (CUSA #7) Rec:5-7/5.6-6.4 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 53.4% SOS:#129 FPI:124 SP:118 PS:89
(113) N.M. St (CUSA #6) Rec:7-6/6.6-6.4 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 51.9% SOS:#120 FPI:130 SP:126 PS:113
(114) LA Tech (CUSA #9) Rec:4-8/5.3-6.7 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 43.5% SOS:#123 FPI:101 SP:112 PS:109
(115) USF (Amer #13) Rec:4-8/4.8-7.2 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 31.1% SOS:#78 FPI:104 SP:108 PS:121
(116) Utah St (MTN #10) Rec:4-8/4.9-7.1 CFP:0.0% Bowl:32.8% SOS:#91 FPI:113 SP:113 PS:122
(117) C Mich (MAC W#5) Rec:4-8/4.9-7.1 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 35.7% SOS:#108 FPI:106 SP:109 PS:103
(118) UConn (IND #3) Rec:5-7/5.1-6.9 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 39.0% SOS:#74 FPI:119 SP:125 PS:94
(119) N Ill (MAC W#4) Rec:3-9/4.7-7.3 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 30.8% SOS:#133 FPI:114 SP:115 PS:101
(120) W Mich (MAC W#6) Rec:5-7/4.6-7.4 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 26.5% SOS:#93 FPI:120 SP:117 PS:133
Northern Illinois has our #133 SOS out of 133 teams and still can't parlay it into a bowl bid more than 31% of the time; even their three "wins" are all close tossups. The lack of tough games gives them a wide range of outcomes centering on 5 wins. Meanwhile UTEP is favored to hit 6 wins on their #129 schedule, with an even wider spread; they have a 12% chance of 8 or more wins! #113 New Mexico State plays a 13-game schedule and thus needs 7 victories, and it's 52% likely they'll get it.
(121) BGSU (MAC E#4) Rec:3-9/4.6-7.4 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 26.9% SOS:#102 FPI:125 SP:129 PS:120
(122) Texas St (SUN W#7) Rec:2-10/4.2-7.8 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 19.3% SOS:#114 FPI:121 SP:122 PS:127
(123) Rice (Amer #12) Rec:3-9/4.1-7.9 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 16.6% SOS:#71 FPI:107 SP:116 PS:105
(124) New Mex (MTN #12) Rec:3-9/4.6-7.4 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 26.7% SOS:#118 FPI:126 SP:127 PS:128
(125) Akron (MAC E#6) Rec:2-10/4.5-7.5 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 25.0% SOS:#128 FPI:128 SP:128 PS:115
(126) Colo St (MTN #9) Rec:3-9/4.4-7.6 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 23.7% SOS:#113 FPI:122 SP:114 PS:112
(127) Nevada (MTN #11) Rec:2-10/4.2-7.8 CFP:0.0% Bowl:19.8% SOS:#100 FPI:117 SP:106 PS:114
(128) Sam Houston* (CUSA #5) Rec:2-10/3.4-8.6 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 7.2%* SOS:#115 FPI:132 SP:119 PS:124
(129) Hawaii (MTN #8) Rec:1-12/3.9-9.1 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 5.4% SOS:#106 FPI:116 SP:120 PS:130
(130) Charlotte (Amer #14) Rec:1-11/3.0-9.0 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 3.2% SOS:#88 FPI:118 SP:131 PS:119
(131) UMass (IND #4) Rec:1-11/2.9-9.1 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 3.1% SOS:#98 FPI:133 SP:133 PS:129
(132) Colorado (P12 #12) Rec:1-11/2.0-10.0 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 0.4% SOS:#25 FPI:95 SP:88 PS:107
(133) FIU (CUSA #8) Rec:1-11/2.7-9.3 CFP:0.0% Bowl: 2.3% SOS:#117 FPI:129 SP:130 PS:123
Note: due to an error, Boston College and Rutgers (and other teams near the bottom) were mis-ranked when we first published this a few days ago. The Eagles and Scarlet Knights are at #110 and #108 now, which makes more sense than having them in the bottom 13 teams did. B.C.'s four "wins" are all pretty narrow and out of 10,000 trials they'll have a lot of 2-10, 1-11, even 0-12 that knocks their average performance down. Same with Rutgers, who has the #15 schedule to deal with: just one "gimme" game over FCS Fordham and a few more narrow "wins". They do have three automatic losses each time vs. Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. Interestingly they both share an expected win over Virginia Tech, who finished all the way up at #92—but the Hokies made the Playoff in at least one trial, while BC and Rutgers didn't.
And then there's Colorado. We're just looking at last year's team performance and they come up with a 0.4% chance to make a bowl game, thanks to their #25 schedule which includes #11 TCU, #16 Oregon, #13 USC, #15 Oregon State, and #7 Utah. They're favored over #126 Colorado State. But the bottom line is that this is an entirely new team pretty much, with dozens of transfers replacing players who departed en masse. Who knows what Deon Sanders can deliver. If they're even as good as last year's Jackson State it would be a pretty decent upgrade, so consider this obviously a lower bound.
Comments