View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule here
National Championship Game in Inglewood, Ca
When: Monday, January 9 at 7:30 pm ET
TV: ESPN
#1 Georgia Bulldogs (14-0) vs. #3 TCU Horned Frogs (13-1)
Both teams needed some luck to survive the semi-finals, will the championship game live up to those instant classics?
Vegas line/spread: Georgia by 13 (over/under 62)
Georgia is an very big favorite early, one of the biggest of the bowl season.
Strength power rating: #1 Georgia 35, #8 TCU 26
Best/Worst removed: Georgia 35-25
Turnover corrected: Georgia 36-24
The Strength power rating puts Georgia #1 and TCU is just #8. The Bulldogs are favored by about 9 points, increasing to 10 when we make a filtered "median" by throwing out each team's best and worst games. Correcting for mostly-random turnovers which have benefitted TCU greatly, Georgia's expected win margin expands to 12 points, and that's not a coincidence that it almost matches the opening Vegas line.
| Game-comparisons | win % | vs. -13 Spread |
| Georgia | 66.8% | 44.4% |
| TCU | 33.2% | 55.6% |
As Georgia has a big advantage in the Strength power rating, it's no surprise that they win the vast majority of game comparisons, basically 2 out of 3. But TCU wins most of the time vs. the large opening spread.
When Georgia has the ball
| Georgia scoring offense(adj): #4 |
TCU scoring defense(adj): #20 |
| Georgia rushing offense(raw): #22 |
TCU rushing defense(raw): #70/#69 |
| Georgia passing offense(raw): #15 | TCU passing defense(raw): #92/#52 |
TCU's scoring defense is similar to Ohio State's, so expect the Bulldogs to score easily at times and bog down at others; that's just the nature of the Bulldog offense. The other numbers (rushing/passing) are unadjusted and should be taken with some skepticism, but they show Georgia has a balanced offense, and suggest TCU's vulnerability on defense since even the per-play rankings aren't great. Remember that TCU played one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
Georgia QB Stetson Bennett (3,823 yards, 23 TDs, 7 int) was 23 of 34 for 398 yards against Ohio State, with 3 TDs and one pick, and as expected he spread the yardage among many receivers. The ground game wasn't used as much as it normally is but the passing game worked so well they took what the Buckeyes gave them, and that's probably what they'll do vs. TCU. They key for Bennett will be to avoid getting the pick-sixes that killed Michigan.
When TCU has the ball
| TCU scoring offense(adj): #7 |
Georgia scoring defense(adj): #1 |
| TCU rushing offense(raw): #19 |
Georgia rushing defense(raw): #1/#5 |
| TCU passing offense(raw): #29 | Georgia passing defense(raw): #66/#19 |
Max Duggan (3,546 yards, 32 TDs, 6 int) didn't have an especially good game against Michigan, connecting on just 14 of 29 attempts for 225 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions. But the ground game made up for it; Kendre Miller is the leading RB with 1,399 yards and 17 TDs but against the Wolverines it was Emari Demercado who led with 150.
TCU's offense is facing another top defense; Michigan ranked #3 in scoring defense before the Playoff game, while Georgia is #1. The Bulldogs are #1 by quite a bit, and even their "weakness"—the #66 raw passing defense, is mostly due to the fact that teams know they can't run the ball on the Bulldogs; they're #19 on a per-attempt basis. Ohio State's CJ Stroud managed 348 yards while the Buckeye running game was held to 119.
While Ohio State's #2 scoring offense put up 41 (and almost 44) against them, the Bulldogs held Tennessee to just 13 points during the regular season. TCU's total will likely fall within that broad range.
Special Teams Rank (per ESPN FPI): Georgia: #85 TCU: #49
Neither team has particularly great nor terrible special teams overall.
Georgia's season (14-0) • SOS: #8
Non-conf losses: 0
Home losses: 0
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 9-0
Record vs. top 25 teams: 6-0
- +#15 Oregon 49-3
- Samford 33-0
- @#19 South Carolina 48-7
- Kent St 39-22
- @Missouri 26-22
- Auburn 42-10
- Vanderbilt 55-0
- =Florida 42-20
- #6 Tennessee 27-13
- @#22 Mississippi St 45-19
- @Kentucky 16-6
- Georgia Tech 37-14
- +#17 LSU 50-30
- +#4 Ohio State 42-41
Georgia opened with probably their best effort of the season, one of the very best of any team this year, the 49-3 demolition of Oregon in Atlanta. At the time it was thought that maybe Oregon's offense wasn't good but the fact was that Georgia was the best team in the country from the start of the season. Oregon would finish in the top ten in offense.
But even the 2nd game would show the Bulldogs propensity to slack off against weaker teams, something that would show up against Kent State and almost bit them at Missouri. Each time they did what they needed to do when games were too close, like the later game at Kentucky—and indeed, against Ohio State in the Playoff.
Along the way they beat five Committee top 25 teams, more than anyone else, and 8 bowl-bound teams, before Ohio State made it six and nine. Before that the biggest win was over Tennessee, where they held the top offense in the nation to just 13 points. They also beat South Carolina 48-7 and Mississippi State 45-19. Add in the 20 point win over LSU and they beat 5 top 25 teams by an average of 29.4 points, 5 points more than their average margin over the rest of their slate. Add in Ohio State and that average margin falls to 24.7, still pretty impressive.
Georgia's last three games were once at home and twice in Atlanta, so they haven't played out of state since November 19.
TCU's season (13-1) • SOS: #3
Non-conf losses: 0
Home losses: 0*
Record vs. bowl-eligible teams: 9-1
Record vs. top 25 teams: 3-1
- @Colorado 38-13
- Tarleton St 59-17
- @SMU 42-34
- Oklahoma 55-24
- @Kansas 38-31
- Oklahoma St 43-40 2OT
- #9 Kansas St 38-28
- @West Virginia 41-31
- Texas Tech 34-24
- @#20 Texas 17-10
- @Baylor 29-28
- Iowa St 62-14
- +#9 Kansas St 28-31 OT
- =#2 Michigan 51-45
TCU's schedule was even tougher than Georgia's, despite playing 1-11 Colorado and Tarleton State. Nine of their other 11 opponents went to a bowl game, and the two that didn't were 5-7 and 4-8. And then, of course, they beat the Committee #2 Michigan to get to the final.
Early on TCU played at a level clearly below Georgia but the gap narrowed in the 2nd half of the season. Their standout efforts were the 55-24 win over Oklahoma, the first meeting with K-State, a 38-28 win, the 17-10 road win at Texas, and the 62-14 win over a very underrated Iowa State team. Their loss to K-State—essentially another home game in Arlington—was still a very strong effort, basically their average performance. So there wasn't any breakdown on TCU's part, it was just a close game that could have gone either way at the end—much like the Michigan game. They played fantastic on offense against Michigan, but not so great on defense—until you give the defense credit for the two pick sixes, then things even out a bit. Overall it was clearly a better performance than the K-State game.
Nor did TCU have any truly subpar offensive or defensive outings. Typically their best games were great games on offense; they had only one extraordinary defensive performance (Texas 17-10) and unlike Georgia, they held no opponents under 10 points. And while Georgia has now had just 2 "close call" wins, TCU lived by them, with 9 wins by 10 or fewer points. In fact seven games in a row—from Kansas through Baylor—were hard-fought wins, many of them comebacks, the most memorable being their last-second "sprint" field goal that beat Baylor. And now, of course, the Michigan win, which was very close but was also a rare game where they led the whole way.
Key Injuries / opt-outs
So far no certain injury outages. A few players for Georgia are listed as questionable.
Psychology/Motivation - Some speculative factors that may come into play during the game:
- Favorite: Georgia is a huge favorite, opening at almost two touchdowns. TCU might get some motivation from this, as they were motivated enough over the Michigan spread of 7 points.
- Location: California; this will essentially be Georgia's first non-home game in a month and a half
- Coaching: No change. Kirby Smart is in his 7th year at Georgia; Sonny Dykes is in his first year at TCU, his 12th head coaching year overall
- Motivation: For this game, motivation is a given. The question is whether there's anything extra for one team or another. Certainly TCU has to be the hungrier team, as Georgia won it all last year.
- Momentum: Momentum isn't really relevant in the national championship game, especially with a Playoff where each team just won a game. And in this case, both wins were somewhat similar—close games that required some luck on the part of the victor. The only difference is that Georgia was coming back all game, while TCU was holding off Michigan from the start.
This is a tough one to parse. Teams that are trying to repeat are never at peak hunger; it's part of the reason repeating is so difficult. And teams that are part of a big turnaround season often run out of gas near the finish line. But in both these cases, the Playoff format softens the blow. If Georgia lacked hunger, it would have manifested against Ohio State (and maybe it did). And if TCU had stage fright it would have shown up vs. Michigan (and there was no real sign of it). Now that they're in the final game, maybe "extra" hunger or lack of it isn't really a thing?
Final analysis
Both squads are lucky to be here. Ohio State makes that field goal and Georgia's season is over. The officials decline to overturn what looked like a clear touchdown to everyone in that stadium, and TCU is most likely going home too. Those were back and forth games where any outcome was possible; Georgia and TCU both got lucky. There's really no point to saying that other than it points to the fact that any outcome is possible in the title game.
Both teams are playing less-than-stellar defense lately; for Georgia, this means they are playing good but not great defense, while TCU is playing decent-to-poor defense. I'd look for another high-scoring game as both offenses have been clicking. That could mean anything from a very even shootout to a blowout. It's not very likely TCU can scores enough on Georgia's defense to blow away the Bulldogs, but if the Georgia offense is having a good day it could be very one-sided in the Bulldogs' favor. There's a reason they're such a big favorite.
When you look at Alabama and all the times they tried to repeat in the Playoff era, you see that they won it all in 2015, then got to the finals in 2016 and lost to Clemson; won it all in 2017 and tried to repeat in 2018 and lost to Clemson again; then won it all in 2020 and tried to repeat in 2021 and lost to Georgia. With Alabama going 3 for 3 in getting to the championship game after a championship, and going 0 for 3 in those games, it doesn't bode well for Georgia. Something about the "repeat" mindset just takes the edge off great teams.
And with both teams playing poor defense lately (each relative to how well they normally play) it suggests another shootout game like we saw in both semifinals. It's not hard to imagine Georgia's offense bogging down like it does occasionally—as it did at times against Ohio State—and this time, when they need a comeback, maybe they don't get it for the first time. TCU knows how to play through adversity, it's part of who they are. Georgia just expects to win and so far, it's happened. One team or the other is going to run out of luck this time, maybe it's Georgia's turn. Repeating is just too difficult.
I didn't think TCU would make it here, but since they did, I'm going to pick an upset. As usual, a close game that TCU barely wins. And I know this means we would be blessed with three great Playoff games and that hasn't happened yet, but it's due to happen once before the Playoff goes crazy with 12 teams.
Prediction: TCU 35, Georgia 31
More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2022-2023 bowl game schedule.
Comments